H5N1 human deaths in China - this may be it folks

CanadaSue

Membership Revoked
Damned bastards! They have had human cases since early April & poultry outbreaks. The news has been leaked although ProMed is desperately seeking confirmation. Article first, then comments:

http://www.promedmail.org/pls/prome..._BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,29040


***AVIAN INFLUENZA, HUMAN - CHINA: SUSPECTED, REQUEST
FOR INFORMATION

Date: 25 May 2005
From: ProMED-mail <promed@promedmail.org>
Source: Boxun.com, Mon 23 May 2005 [translated from Chinese,
edited]
<http://www.peacehall.com/news/gb/china/2005/05/200505232206.
shtml>


Severe bird flu causes several human deaths, officials begin disease control measures
------------------------------------
Recently, many people died of avian influenza in Qinghai province. The affected localities reveal that, as of early April 2005, there have been several deaths of migratory birds. Because of lack of reporting, the news has not traveled widely. Toward the end of April 2005, cases of human infection started to emerge. After 1 May 2005, some tourists who visited the areas were severely affected, and 6 of them died.

During the month of April 2005, a large-scale dissemination of the infection took place involving both humans and domesticated animals. The affected area is vast but sparsely populated. Thus, the problem of large-scale of infection involving both humans and domesticated animals is relatively unnoticeable. The feral birds
migrate freely and so expand the area of transmission. The Chinese authorities have admitted the outbreaks and started to seal off the affected area.

Because of this, Mrs. Yi Wu (Chinese Minister of Health) has cut short her visit to Japan and returned home. According to the local news in the affected locality, the number of human casualties is higher than 6.

The deceased persons are all foreign tourists (i.e. not local residents): 2 (a man and a woman) from Chengdu, and one man from Chongqing, Sichuang province. It is unknown from where the remaining casualties come.

The information was provided by someone who has visited the area
of the outbreaks.

--
ProMED-mail
<promed@promedmail.org>

[This unofficial information needs substantiation; any available
information will be very much appreciated. - Mod.AS]***


Okay first, nice big round of cleansing breaths - although I'l admit to hurling a few minutes after reading this. The news has YET TO BE CONFIRMED. But I trust China the way I'd trust a hundry three year old in front of a plate full of cookies fresh from the oven. ProMed will post anonymous reports but usually only if they have reason to believe they may have merit. They don't often have to issue retractions.

The Minister of health has been brought back expeditiously - that alone is reason to be concerned.

Tourists: it's unclear what is meant. One part states that it's simply Chinese not from that area but other parts of that item aren't quite as clear. The area is not well populated but this may easily have been seeded outside the area. I wonder, poultry to human transmission has not yet proven efficient. The hemagglutinen is changing but that's the case in the North Vietnamese evolving subtype - not ther south. Not a clue what they might be dealing with in China. We need to find out NOW. I suspect the WHO is having kittens.

Okay, transmission not efficient but at least 6 dead & an unknown # of people sick, some very sick & some tourists with, (I'm assuming), not exactly cheek by jowl contact with poultry or migratory waterfowl. That MAY indicate a subtype that is more easily transmitted.

I must stress & stress again, I don't KNOW any of this - I'm guessing based on what I know of flu. The report may be a flat out lie sent to ProMed by someone with malicious intent. I'm afraid I highly doubt that though. ProMed jealously guards it's credibility.

So I don't know what this is, what's going on. I wish to Gawd, I had time to do the digging I feel I need to do but I'm moving on Monday, working tonight & tomorrow & the timing couldn't have been worse. I'll do what I can but for now would highly recommend three things.

1) Don't panic.

2) Find all the info you can & TRY for CONFIRMED info, bearin in mind we're dealing with China.

3) Get your N-95 masks, nitrile or latex gloves & bleach NOW & get ready to top up preps.

This could be ther start of First Wave pandemic. The timing is chillingly, eerily similar to 1918.
 

CanadaSue

Membership Revoked
Thank me or curse me?

I'm not wussing out here - my son has just moved out - sort of & on Saturday the movers are coming to pack US for a move Monday to a place about half the size of what we have now. My world has consisted of sorting, organizing, pitching, tossing, throwing, pre-packing, cleaning, polishing, oiling, address changes, a million appointments tossed in, schedule out of whack... that ain't gonna end for about another 2 weeks until the last bit of move related naus is completed. I had to work twice this week - need the money but the timing was poor - LOL

I was sarcastically saying elsewhere that imminent pandemic would just just have to wait until it suited MY schedule - yeah ain't that special? The world doesn't work that way.

Look again, this may be a fizzle. Spanish Flu did some remarkably similar things in the few years before it went global. And I'm assuming it was the same virus - we don't even know that. But anyhow, there were odd outbreaks of flu or something glu-like at odd times, in odd places & with odd symptoms that would disappear as mysteriously as they vanished. As well, animals were affewcted. France lost a lot of horses to what we know think was equine influeza just before Spanish Flu - again, we have no what of knowing what it was.

I'm not expedcting hard news out of China - they won't do that until they're forced to & it's dire & when they say something - well I have my own internal filters - my own interpretations of THEIR numbers that I'll apply.

Right now, I'll be closely watching other, more open Asian countries in that region. Forget Vietnam - their info is too little, too late. Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, anything bordering China bears watching.

I have to get back to meatworld work for a bit here & off to work for the evening at 1900 but will hope that validated info breaks before that.
 

CelticRose

Membership Revoked
Many, many thanks, Canada Sue!...... I've been reading the threads here on TBY2K as well as nosing around ProMed and the net in general.....

Like you... I tend to 'assume' that China is not going to be candid about the actual cases and mortality rate.

That said.......... What we can do is prepare, as best we can and if a 'worst case' scenario occurs, hope we can ride it out.........
 

skip8

Membership Revoked
Thanks CanadaSue for working so hard in following this potential calamity!

The Chinese authorities have admitted the outbreaks and started to seal off the affected area.

This alone is cause for great concern if true. The ChiComs only admit to problems when they can no longer maintain the denial and cover-up. The cats out of the bag? :eek:
 

CanadaSue

Membership Revoked
Gimme an hour here

Gonna go scrub a few walls & think something through. If, IF this is the start of First Wave, it may actually not be that bad a time for it. Don't get me wrong - I want to see this like I want to see the inside of a Turkish prison but if this is inevitable, there may be some advantages to First Wave now - just gonna takew a bit of timne to clarify my thinking.

I'll admit that ProMed post rattled me badly.
 

lynnie

Membership Revoked
Sue I want to thank you so much for coming here to post this. I hope you'll keep posting updates.


I also want to mention that the best price I've seen anywhere on N 95 masks is in ten packs at Home Depot in the paint department. If you look over with all the regular good masks in the mask section where they have those 40 dollar ones for fumes, you won't find the ten packs, just pricey individual ones, so look in the paint department.
 

michaelteever

Deceased
Time running out to stop bird flu -experts

For fair use education/research purposes.

The link: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=585&e=1&u=/nm/20050525/sc_nm/birdflu_dc

Time running out to stop bird flu

By Patricia Reaney
19 minutes ago

LONDON (Reuters) - It could infect 20 percent of the world's population, kill many millions and create an economic crisis but scientists say not enough is being done to combat a bird flu virus that could trigger a global pandemic.

The Asian H5N1 virus that first surfaced in poultry in Hong Kong and China eight years ago has killed 37 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and four in Cambodia.

Global health officials fear it could mutate into a lethal strain that could rival the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that killed between 20 and 40 million people.

"Time is running out to prepare for the next pandemic," said Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota, Wednesday in a special section of the journal Nature devoted to avian flu.

"There is a critical need for comprehensive medical and non-medical pandemic planning at the ground level that goes beyond what has been considered so far," he added.

Scientists believe the next pandemic, which many believe is overdue, will probably originate in poultry in Asia. To become a pandemic strain, H5N1 will have to adapt sufficiently on its own, or mix its genetic material with a human virus to become highly infectious in humans, who have no protection against it.

Although this strain of bird flu has been circulating in Asia for years, Albert Osterhaus and virologists at Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam in the Netherlands said research into outbreaks in Asia has been patchy and uncoordinated.

They believe more is needed.

"We propose establishing a permanent global task force to control a flu pandemic, in which relevant agencies would work together with leading research groups from different disciplines," they said in the journal.

The scientists estimate that the task force, which would consist of specialists in human and animal diseases, as well as pathologists, ecologists and agricultural experts, would cost less than $1.5 million a year.

HUMAN AND BIRD VACCINES

Developing countries are now stockpiling Roche's antiviral drug Tamiflu against the threat of an human flu pandemic. The drug made by the Swiss pharmaceutical giant will be the first line of defense while scientists prepare an effective vaccine, which could take months to develop.

Although Roche has quadrupled its production capacity for the drug, experts believe global stockpiles will not be enough if a pandemic develops. The drug will not prevent a pandemic but it can reduce the duration of flu symptoms.

So far about 50 countries have drawn up plans to deal with a pandemic but only a few are in Asia where it is likely to start.

Other experts believe too little attention has been focused on a global strategy to prevent a pandemic at its source -- in animals and particularly poultry.

Hong Kong destroyed 1.5 million birds in 1997 when the H5N1 virus appeared. It also introduced surveillance and movement restrictions for poultry. Other nations decided to vaccinate animals or opted for surveillance programs.

Scientists are already testing the safety of an inactivated H5N1 virus made by Sanofi-Aventis . A contract to produce 2 million doses as a stockpile has also been signed.

"This effort will ensure that, should the need arise, the manufacturing techniques, procedures, and conditions for large-scale production are already in place," said Dr Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland.

Unlike other pandemics, scientists now have the knowledge and technology to develop countermeasures against the disease.

"However, unless we improve our capacity to produce such countermeasures, we may experience again the devastation of past pandemics," Fauci added.

asian_flu_graphic.gif
It could infect 20 percent of the world's population, kill many millions and create an economic crisis but scientists say not enough is being done to combat a bird flu virus that could trigger a global pandemic. The Asian H5N1 virus that first surfaced in poultry in Hong Kong and China eight years ago has killed 37 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and four in Cambodia. (Reuters Graphic)

edit to add link and graphic
 
Last edited:

libtoken

Veteran Member
From the BBC a couple of days ago:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4570197.stm

China rushes in bird flu vaccine

Infected birds could introduce the virus along their migration routes
China has sent three million doses of bird flu vaccine to western Qinghai province after migrating wild geese were found there killed by the virus.
Poultry across the remote province had become the "target of a compulsory vaccination campaign", the state-run China Daily newspaper reported.

China on Saturday ordered nationwide emergency measures to try to stop the spread of the disease.

The virus has killed at least 53 people in South East Asia since late 2003.

Tests confirmed that 178 geese found dead in Qinghai province had been infected with the H5N1 bird flu virus, China's official media reported.

(snip)
The agriculture ministry said the dead birds were found in early May on Bird Island, a research centre and wildfowl reserve popular with tourists on the shores of Lake Qinghai.

Some are believed to have migrated from South East Asia, but officials did not give any details.

China's most recent confirmed case of bird flu occurred last July in the east of the country, although there have been no cases in China of humans being infected with the virus.

The H5N1 strain of bird flu has been confirmed in eight South East Asian countries since 2003, including Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, where people have died from it.

The World Health Organization has warned of the great potential threat should the virus develop the capacity to spread more easily between humans.

An expert from China's national bird flu reference laboratory, Cui Shangjin, told the official Xinhua news agency that "people need not be too worried" as the controls introduced should be effective.

The emergency measures include banning people from habitats of migratory birds, immunising poultry raised near habitats and routes of migratory birds, and introducing quarantine measures in Qinghai.

:shk:
 

ittybit

Inactive
With about 90% of wild birds testing positive is SE Asia, and 'migratory' being one of their habits, this is no great surprise (H5N1 in China). To have a human outbreak where multiples are dying is certainly a turn of events.

There is no stopping this thing really. Everyone will make an effort, but ...
 
-


I am very glad to see you posting Lady Canadasue. And as always, you have covered, with your *special throughness* the delimma facing us...

It Is Good to see you dear Lady............
 

Martin

Deceased
China denies reports of human cases of H5N1 flu infection, WHO says

Helen Branswell
Canadian Press


Wednesday, May 25, 2005


(CP) - Chinese health authorities have denied Internet reports that there have been human infections and deaths caused by the H5N1 flu virus in their country, the head of the World Health Organization's influenza branch said Wednesday.

Dr. Klaus Stohr said the WHO conferred with representatives of the Chinese Ministry of Health both in Geneva and in Beijing and was given assurances the reports, published on some Chinese websites, were unfounded.

"We have spoken with the Ministry of Health representatives here in Geneva today. We have also had contact with our colleagues in China. They have come back and said that there is no indication of human cases. They have not seen any human cases," Stohr said in an interview from Geneva.

The WHO will continue to monitor the situation, Stohr added.

A report circulated by ProMED - a mailing list operated by the International Society for Infectious Diseases - said at least six tourists to Qinghai province died after being infected with H5N1.

The discovery that 178 migratory geese carrying the virus had died in a nature reserve in Qinghai Province has had Chinese authorities scrambling to ensure the deadly H5N1 virus doesn't get a toe hold in their country. Their response includes mass vaccination of two million chickens in the area.

Stohr said Chinese authorities responded in writing and in detail to WHO's queries, explaining the vaccination program and precautions being taken by workers involved in it.

As well, authorities are on the lookout for cases of severe respiratory disease among workers or people who visited the nature reserve, he said.

There have long been concerns that China might not be forthcoming about cases of H5N1 infection in that country, given China's attempts to keep the emergence of the disease that became known as severe acute respiratory syndrome - or SARS - from the world in late 2002 and early 2003.

Influenza authorities fear H5N1, which has become endemic in bird stocks in some parts of Southeast Asia, may acquire the ability to transmit easily to and among humans, sparking a flu pandemic.

http://www.canada.com/components/printstory/printstory4.aspx?id=5bfe46cf-d4ff-447d-9a84-45841694f54b
 

Martin

Deceased
Title : China dismally unprepared for bird flu crisis: expert
By :
Date : 26 May 2005 0225 hrs (SST)
URL : http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/health/view/149417/1/.html

PARIS : China remains woefully ill-equipped for tackling avian flu, a top scientist said, as other experts spelt out fears that hundreds of millions of people may die or fall sick if the virus triggers a global pandemic.

David Ho, an internationally-renowned US researcher, said China had received a wakeup call in 2003 after its initially tardy and secretive response to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).

But the new political will to strengthen China's rickety medical infrastructure had yet to be matched on the ground, and this has left the country dangerously exposed to avian influenza, Ho said.

"There is little doubt that China will be in deep trouble if the flu pandemic were to strike in the next few years," Ho, who works at the Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center in New York, said in a commentary published by the British science journal Nature.

"It has a moral obligation to its own people, and to the world, to rectify the situation as soon as possible."

The problems highlighted by Ho include a "grossly underfunded" epidemiological system to spot disease outbreaks; an inefficient alert system to warn and advise hospitals, doctors, officials and the public; and decrepit healthcare infrastructure and poorly trained physicians.

Other specialists, likewise reporting in an issue of Nature dedicated to the avian flu crisis, reiterated worries that a highly contagious form of bird flu could soon emerge and sweep the globe, helped by jet travel, open borders and the lack of a vaccine.

"A human flu pandemic could cause 20 percent of the world's population to become ill," said Ron Fouchier, Thijs Kuiken, Guus Rimmelzwaan and Albert Osterhaus of the Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam, quoting figures from a 2004 study.

"Within a few months, close to 30 million people would need to be hospitalised, a quarter of whom would die. Although these figures are speculative, they are among the more optimistic predictions of how the next flu pandemic might unfold."

The team called for a "global task force" to oversee action against a flu pandemic, by helping to pool knowledge about the virus and coordinating strategies to combat it.

The entity would cost less than 1.5 million dollars a year, just a fraction of the cost of a pandemic to the world economy, they suggested.

Avian flu is the term for a disease that affects poultry and wild fowl.

In 1997, the death of six people in Hong Kong showed that the so-called H5N1 strain of this virus could also spread from birds to humans.

H5N1 resurfaced in 2003 in an outbreak on chicken farms in the Netherlands and in Southeast Asia and China.

It has so far caused 54 deaths in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia and one death in Europe.

H5N1, while potentially lethal for humans, is not very contagious in its present genetic form.

The big worry is that it could swap genes with a conventional human flu virus, evolving into a pathogen that is both a killer and highly infectious, easily spread by coughs and sneezes.

A World Health Organisation (WHO) study, made public last Wednesday, said that the patterns in which the virus had been spreading in Vietnam raised the possibility that it was becoming better at human-to-human transmission.

The tone of the papers published in Nature was grim, saying that time was fast running out to devise and stockpile a vaccine and manufacture and distribute antiviral drugs that ease flu symptoms.
 

phoenix7of7

Deceased
IMO - the chinese (or NK) created this strain. And it escaped from their piss-poor containment facilities --- before they were ready to unleash it as a covert weapon.

It is just a matter of time.
 

kristin4

Contributing Member
did anyone look closely at this map???

I trioed to copy and paste it, but couldn't. It is from post from michaelteever. It shows the maps of all the countries that have had avian flu events highlighted in white. Notice USA is white!!!! Ummm, why wasn't this on our news? If this flu is in USA, we need to be prepared!!!
 

Fuzzychick

Membership Revoked
kristin4 said:
I trioed to copy and paste it, but couldn't. It is from post from michaelteever. It shows the maps of all the countries that have had avian flu events highlighted in white. Notice USA is white!!!! Ummm, why wasn't this on our news? If this flu is in USA, we need to be prepared!!!
What map??????? :shkr:
 

BB

Membership Revoked
We still need more information folks

Thanks Martin for your 'digging'.


From Dr. Niman's site:

Commentary
.
Human Bird Flu Deaths in Qinghai China?

Recombinomics Commentary
May 25, 2005

>> The affected localities reveal that, as of early April 2005, there have been several deaths of migratory birds. Because of lack of reporting, the news has not traveled widely. Toward the end of April 2005, cases of human infection started to emerge. After 1 May 2005, some tourists who visited the areas were severely affected, and 6 of them died.

Because of this, Mrs. Yi Wu (Chinese Minister of Health) has cut short her visit to Japan and returned home. According to the local news in the affected locality, the number of human casualties is higher than 6.

The deceased persons are all foreign tourists (i.e. not local residents): 2 (a man and a woman) from Chengdu, and one man from Chongqing, Sichuang province. It is unknown from where the remaining casualties come. <<



Dr. Niman:
The above, unconfirmed report has been posted at a Chinese language site as well as ProMed. Although not confirmed, the report contains details, as well as the names of at least two of the reported dead.

The initial report from China to the OIE detailed the deaths of 519 birds representing five species at the beginning of May. The death of five species of migratory birds over such a short time span is unusual.

Qinghai Lake Nature Reserve is within the intersection of the East Asia and Central - South Flyways, which would allow for significant recombination in H5N1 infected birds. The bar-headed geese migrate from India, where there has been a prolonged outbreak of meningitis in New Delhi, and surrounding municipalities in northern India.

There have been no reported results on H5N1 testing, although there was a recent report of H5N1 positive sera collected in 2002 from poultry workers.

All recent reported H5N1 human fatalities have been in Vietnam and Cambodia this year, with additional deaths last year in Thailand and Vietnam.

Although China has not reported H5N1 infections since 2004, there have been reports of dying geese in Fujan Province, which have been replaced with geese from adjacent Jiangsu and Jiangxi provinces. Moreover, the HA cleavage site in the 2005 isolates from northern Vietnam matches 2004 isolates from Guangzhou and Yunnan, suggesting recent unreported H5N1 infections.

More information on the human cases in Qinghai would be useful.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05250505/H5N1_Qinghai_Human.html
 

BB

Membership Revoked
P77: That is an interesting idea about this being a strain that has escaped on them. I've been following this avian flu and there is indeed evidence that this is a man-made strain and not a natural event. WE KNOW that the 1933 strain was found in pigs in South Korea. That had to be planted by someone with access to that particular strain.

Well, if this thing has gone human to human in China with the living conditions over there, the pandemic has indeed begun.
 

Martin

Deceased
Since this thread is about china and health I guess this will fit in here...



Michael Richardson: China's world health battleground





25.05.05


At first glance, Taiwan's failure for the ninth consecutive year to gain observer status at the World Health Organisation annual assembly in Geneva is just another manifestation of its never-ending diplomatic tug-of-war with China.

After all, it came just three days after Taiwan scored a small victory by winning back the tiny South Pacific island nation of Nauru as an ally three years after it had switched allegiance to Beijing.

The WHO is a much bigger and more important battleground for China than the South Pacific. Despite some declarations of support for Taipei, the WHO's 192 members states accepted a call by China to take no action on Taiwan's request to become an observer.

Beijing has treated Taiwan as a breakaway province of China since anti-communist forces in the Chinese civil war were defeated in 1949 and fled to the Taiwanese islands. China argues that only sovereign states can take part in the annual WHO Assembly, which is meeting until today.

Just 26 nations, including Nauru, recognise Taiwan. Most are small, impoverished countries in Latin America, Africa or the Pacific that seek to play Taiwan against China for financial and other aid.

Taiwan, now a self-governing democracy of 23 million people, first sought observer status at the WHO in 1997. Its Government refuses to accept Beijing's policy that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China. This prompted recent legislation in China reiterating that any declaration of independence would be countered by force.

China has blocked Taiwan's WHO application for years - even during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) crisis in 2003, which killed 800 people, mostly in Asia.

Taiwan claims that its exclusion from the WHO poses an international danger because the island has a significant role in preventing not just a resurgence of Sars but also the spread of avian or bird flu, which health experts worry could cause the next major influenza pandemic.

Taiwan's claim is exaggerated - China's Health Minister, Gao Qiang, assured the WHO last week that Beijing would allow it to send experts to investigate any disease outbreak on the island and that Taiwanese medical experts would be able to consult the WHO.

But the episode is symptomatic of a more serious problem - weak international co-operation in the face of growing threats to human health from infectious diseases such as bird flu and the Ebola and West Nile viruses, which can spread more rapidly than previous contagions because of the ease of modern travel.

The H5N1 bird flu virus has killed more than 50 people in Asia since 2003, mainly in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. Two more cases were detected in Vietnam last week. Health experts fear the often-fatal virus might mutate into a form that can pass not just from poultry or other animals to humans, but from human to human.

This month, a senior official of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation accused unnamed Asian nations of preventing proper bird flu monitoring by giving too few poultry-infected samples to FAO scientists to pass to the WHO. The latter reportedly told the journal Nature that it had obtained only six human samples of the virus and no infected poultry samples in the past eight months.

Joseph Domenech, head of the FAO's animal health service, said the countries were worried about losing control of the situation and of negative publicity that could undermine investor confidence, frighten tourists and damage their economies.

The WHO has been negotiating revisions to its international health regulations for two years to make them more effective against the spread of disease. On Monday it agreed guidelines for restricting trade with, or travel to or from, an area hit by a public health emergency. They also make it mandatory to report to WHO any outbreak of Sars, bird flu, smallpox and polio. But anything else of potential international public health concern should also be reported.

At the WHO meeting, US Secretary of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt warned there was a grave and growing threat of bird flu becoming a global pandemic.

"I believe that the world is closer to a potential influenza pandemic now than at any time in decades," he said.

Problems in dealing with Sars in Asia two years ago, especially China's reluctance to allow access to international health officials, was the main spur to revising the regulations. They were drawn up 50 years ago and cover basically only cholera, plague and yellow fever.

The WHO is also seeking to strengthen a global alert and response network for infectious diseases. The network links 130 disease control centres and laboratories in dozens of nations. But the agency wants wider co-operation, especially in developing countries.

"The success of our global effort to maintain and increase security depends on reliable information that is available and clear to all who need it," said the WHO Director-General, Dr Lee Jong-wook.

"We have to be able to see with clarity and precision the health needs confronting us and the means at our disposal for meeting them."

* Michael Richardson, a former Asia editor of the International Herald Tribune, is a visiting senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.



http://www.nzherald.co.nz/index.cfm?c_id=2&ObjectID=10127274
 

Fuzzychick

Membership Revoked

CGTech

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Get ready for flu pandemic says WHO
Posted: 05/23
From: Canoe

The World Health Organization urged countries to make full haste with pandemic influenza preparations yesterday as it released a report outlining disturbing changes to the H5N1 virus circulating in Asia.

Among the recent findings is evidence the virus's genetic makeup appears to be altering in a way that may make H5N1 better-adapted for spreading among people.

As well, the report documents a case where the virus showed partial resistance to the main drug the wealthy countries of the world are stockpiling to combat it, oseltamivir. That raises questions about whether an oseltamivir-resistant strain of the virus could propagate and spread. The report notes that scenario, if it were to occur, would have "significant implications for ... H5N1 prevention and control."

WORRISOME PICTURE

A leading infectious-disease expert, Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said the evidence in the report is limited, but paints a worrisome picture of a changing pattern of infection and disease in northern Vietnam.

"Do I say that that's going to mean there's an impending pandemic? I don't know that. Does it tell me that ... there's a growing concern about it? Absolutely."

Evidence in the report was drawn from a recent WHO fact-finding mission to Vietnam and from a meeting of influenza experts in Manila last week.

The WHO admits the implications of the changes in both disease patterns and viral makeup are not fully clear, but suggests the viruses "pose a continuing and potentially growing pandemic threat."

"Based on these concerns and findings, it would be prudent to ... implement or complete pandemic preparatory actions as soon as possible, even if current H5N1 outbreaks in Asia cease or diminish during the summer," it states.

CHANGING PATTERN

In recent weeks, flu experts have been sounding the alarm about the changing pattern of infection in northern Vietnam.

This spring there has appeared to be more clusters of cases, possibly the result of more limited human-to-human spread, and a greater age range of cases. As well, the case fatality rate has dropped - something experts had anticipated would have to happen if H5N1 were to become a pandemic strain.

Some viruses are also showing genetic changes near what's known as the "receptor binding site" - the point where the invading virus attaches to the cell walls of a host.

Flu viruses made entirely of avian influenza genes don't tend to bind well to human receptor binding sites. But these changes may indicate the virus is evolving to be a better fit.

Canada's National Microbiology Laboratory has sent a team of three scientists to Hanoi to help scientists there analyse blood samples from contacts of H5N1 cases. The goal is to try to get a sense of how many have developed antibodies to the virus - a sign they were infected, possibly by human-to-human spread.

The team, led by Dr. Yan Li, chief of the influenza laboratory, left for Hanoi yesterday.
http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/EdmontonSun/News/2005/05/19/1046734-sun.html

The short URL for this item is: http://mathaba.net/0_index.shtml?x=221658

http://mathaba.net/x.htm?http://mathaba.net/0_index.shtml?x=221658
 

Fuzzychick

Membership Revoked
michaelteever said:
For fair use education/research purposes.

The link: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=585&e=1&u=/nm/20050525/sc_nm/birdflu_dc

Time running out to stop bird flu

By Patricia Reaney
19 minutes ago

LONDON (Reuters) - It could infect 20 percent of the world's population, kill many millions and create an economic crisis but scientists say not enough is being done to combat a bird flu virus that could trigger a global pandemic.

The Asian H5N1 virus that first surfaced in poultry in Hong Kong and China eight years ago has killed 37 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and four in Cambodia.

Global health officials fear it could mutate into a lethal strain that could rival the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that killed between 20 and 40 million people.

"Time is running out to prepare for the next pandemic," said Michael Osterholm, of the University of Minnesota, Wednesday in a special section of the journal Nature devoted to avian flu.

"There is a critical need for comprehensive medical and non-medical pandemic planning at the ground level that goes beyond what has been considered so far," he added.

Scientists believe the next pandemic, which many believe is overdue, will probably originate in poultry in Asia. To become a pandemic strain, H5N1 will have to adapt sufficiently on its own, or mix its genetic material with a human virus to become highly infectious in humans, who have no protection against it.

Although this strain of bird flu has been circulating in Asia for years, Albert Osterhaus and virologists at Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam in the Netherlands said research into outbreaks in Asia has been patchy and uncoordinated.

They believe more is needed.

"We propose establishing a permanent global task force to control a flu pandemic, in which relevant agencies would work together with leading research groups from different disciplines," they said in the journal.

The scientists estimate that the task force, which would consist of specialists in human and animal diseases, as well as pathologists, ecologists and agricultural experts, would cost less than $1.5 million a year.

HUMAN AND BIRD VACCINES

Developing countries are now stockpiling Roche's antiviral drug Tamiflu against the threat of an human flu pandemic. The drug made by the Swiss pharmaceutical giant will be the first line of defense while scientists prepare an effective vaccine, which could take months to develop.

Although Roche has quadrupled its production capacity for the drug, experts believe global stockpiles will not be enough if a pandemic develops. The drug will not prevent a pandemic but it can reduce the duration of flu symptoms.

So far about 50 countries have drawn up plans to deal with a pandemic but only a few are in Asia where it is likely to start.

Other experts believe too little attention has been focused on a global strategy to prevent a pandemic at its source -- in animals and particularly poultry.

Hong Kong destroyed 1.5 million birds in 1997 when the H5N1 virus appeared. It also introduced surveillance and movement restrictions for poultry. Other nations decided to vaccinate animals or opted for surveillance programs.

Scientists are already testing the safety of an inactivated H5N1 virus made by Sanofi-Aventis . A contract to produce 2 million doses as a stockpile has also been signed.

"This effort will ensure that, should the need arise, the manufacturing techniques, procedures, and conditions for large-scale production are already in place," said Dr Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland.

Unlike other pandemics, scientists now have the knowledge and technology to develop countermeasures against the disease.

"However, unless we improve our capacity to produce such countermeasures, we may experience again the devastation of past pandemics," Fauci added.

asian_flu_graphic.gif
It could infect 20 percent of the world's population, kill many millions and create an economic crisis but scientists say not enough is being done to combat a bird flu virus that could trigger a global pandemic. The Asian H5N1 virus that first surfaced in poultry in Hong Kong and China eight years ago has killed 37 people in Vietnam, 12 in Thailand and four in Cambodia. (Reuters Graphic)

edit to add link and graphic



Kristin, seen this map..thought you had sites pinpointed....I know Boston is one of them. :rolleyes:
 

CanadaSue

Membership Revoked
Okay, last post this evening probably

I have the volunteer shift from hell coming up - don't ask - & have to start getting ready soon even though working the late shift. Here are my thoughts so far - yeah, they're a bit scrambled but they'll develop as events do. Bear with me.

This outbreak is being described as fairly widespread but thankfully is occuring in a remote area. Having said that, anyone is within three plane flights of anywhere else. The province in question is pretty mountainous though - I note a fairly big lake & lots of rivers. I suppose if you're a migrating goose, it looks pretty good. Widespread.... many villages/towns/farms within the area being affected. While numbers of affected humans & poultry, (I'm assuming it's poultry), aren't being given, the impression is that we're looking at a few here, a few there... death rate of 11% so far by the way - pretty 'good' for H5N1 but scary by any standard. 51 sick with 'serious symptoms'; 6 dead. Okay if the area is that remote - how many been missed or are conveniently not being reported. This is China - don't trust them one bit. They lied about SARS. They continued to lie after admitting to SARS. They lied long after that.

Maybe we'll be lucky & the very remoteness of the area means it will die there. Still, if the Minister of Health was called back, if they're sealing off the area - methinks they've got more going on than they're letting on. Damned tough to sneak in a reporter or anybody into remote areas - strangers stand out & unless you know the local goat tracks, you literally risk your life in those mountains. Let's not even mention bandits, etc. So we're stuck depending on the Chinese & leaks right now for info.

Now those birds that brought it there came from somewhere. Eventually they'll go somewhere. They've just amply proven they come 'bearing unwelcome gifts'. The chain of transmission isn't clear but hardly matters if it went into poultry first. The fact remains it's infected, sickened & killed people. It may be a remote region but other local bird species may pick it up, pass it on & eventually it may hit a city or human travel route - crap shoot country here - big time.

Okay, so what if we're seeing is the baby steps of First Wave? What if we get confirmed news next week that this has broken out of that region into more populous ones & perhaps other countries? CHINA just reported 2 days ago a SARS case in a Taiwanese that had travelled in China. Taiwan denied it - stating the man died of a 'lung infection' - duh! SARS is that but I was immediately curious. Why would CHINA be reporting a Taiwanese case that ORIGINATED in China? And give no more info? Something doesn't smell right.

We don't have much historically to go on other than Spanish Flu & we make much ado about that BECAUSE it was atypical. We have ZERO knowledge of what a new hemagglutinen in humans will do. H1 gave us the Spanish Flu. H2 & H3 brought serious pandemics as well, but nothing on that scale. As new H types enter humans, the death rate drops - thank God. This one is starting from a horribly high case fatality rate. Keep dropping baby! Spanish Flu only killed 2.5% of victims - a mere trifle compared with many other infectious diseases. It did the damage infecting so many for reasons we all know & I won't bore you with any further.

So what might happen now - what might cause the worst problems? Flu is airborne & has a 24 hour silent transmission period - we KNOW that. A new H can theoretically infect up to half of those exposed. I'll be optimistic here & say 1 in 4. I'm going to drop the death rate to 5% because of a lot of modern health factors - again, won't bore anyone with those here; they've been detailed over & over.

H5N1 has the potential to infect many in short order. The recovery period is months. THAT might be the problem - lots of people sick at once, many really needing to be in hospital & not being able to, (any 'excess' staffed bed capacity will be gone in a week), & those who've been ill needing lots of time to recover for fear of relapse or secondaries setting in.

1.5 billion sickened & too many millions for my calculator & brain to figure out right this minute dead. This may happen in a few waves within a year. So where do I get off saying there's some possible good here? Well there isn't but there's some aspects of this, IF we compare this to 1918 that could be used. First Wave was, by any measure, brutal. People were SICK & took a long time to recover. More than the usual 0.04% of people afflicted with flu died BUT... compared to Second Wave it was a trifle.

It might be a real gamble - too high stakes for many but those who were sickened by First Wave Spanish Flu were immune to Second & Third Wave. Third Wave, btw was worse than the First but not as bad as second. I'm not suggesting anyone open the door to First Wave H5N1 flu - certainly not without some idea of what the case fatality rate is but if it dropped to 1% or less, I would certainly consider it. I said CONSIDER, not do - LOL.

I've seen the Chinese denials. Love the denials when the names of three of the dead are online already - nothing new there for the Chinese.

Lab created? Nope, sorry - not worth doing with a highly mutable RNA virus. I don't care if they have a vaccine for any lab created strain - it would be useless within a month of such a strain's release. Sure, lots of 'reasons' the Chinese might want to unleash something like this on the world I suppose, they or anyone else but no GOOD reasons to do it. They can't control any aspect of it & it will bite them in the butt first. The minute it hits a fresh population, (humans), it starts mutating. It can easily recombine with known human subtypes. Noty all terror is generated by bad guys. Nature manages to produce 99% if our 'terror' all by herself.

If this goes pandemic, the last worry on my mind will be where it comes from. I'll be too busy trying to keep it away from my loved ones. A comment on the map - they don't specify H5N1. The US has recnetly had H5N2 outbreaks - Delmarva area & Texas just in the last few months had cases of an unspecified subtype originating in Mexico. They missed Canada - we had a hellacious outbreak of an H7 subtype last summer.

WHAT evidence that this is a man made strain? I'd dearly love some references on that. Yes W33 isolates or partial isolates have been found in swine - deliberate? We don't know. And when it comes right down to it when pandemic strikes - how does it matter?

Forget Tamiflu. Many countries have ORDERED it. It takes a year to produce. Anyone who thinks countries in which it's produced will permit it to leave the country - well I want some of what they're smoking. Forget a vax - no time & same supply concerns.
 

libtoken

Veteran Member
More of the BBC take on claimed potential sensitivity of humans to a new H subtype at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/4579777.stm.

They had a brief spot on TV showing one of the proponents of this theory, saying that the UK is one of the few countries that is attempting to prepare for a new flutype outbreak.

However, if it is H5N1 and if resistance does arise versus the superdrugs, all bets may be off.
 

Morning Star

Groovy Hoosier
Maybe someone can help with a link but I remember specifically 10,000+ chickens slaughtered on the East Coast last spring (Feb-Mar 2004) because I went out and bought a dozen organic whole chickens from the butcher, in case the flu spread.

It was the only time I remember hearing of a large slaughter in the US.
 

BB

Membership Revoked

F.Drew

Membership Revoked
Not sure if this is related... but sort of connected with some points as symptoms/effects of flu.

From Urbansurvival.com
Tuesday 5/24/2005
New Web Bot Advisory

I just got off the phone with Cliff up at www.halfpasthuman.com because there is a new advisory out for the subscribers to the next web bot run (905 series). What occasioned the rare sending out of an advisory is that there appears to be something big - and very imminent - about to happen and there are a lot of general descriptors being kicked out of the early part of the run, about 4-million reads into the data.

Although the descriptors are clear enough, with phrases like...

heart surges suddenly;
fear response;
blue, sudden, out of the blue;
violent energy impact in second;
mindless violence degrades in an instant;
degradation produces disintegration;
use all strength;
strong person silent;
sudden/instant shift to blue;
head ramming breaks skull;
violence damages self continuously/most;
unfounded footing frees fears;
blue over green, floating, blue instant;
reckless behavior leads corpse;
force manifests suddenly, earth dry, upward;
running in haste, repeated exhaustions, weak muscles;
toes crushed, rocks fall;
 

goatlady2

Deceased
The number of people infected is now at 121 and deaths at 11, both figures have about doubled since this morning's news posts. China has a total news blackout on the subject and total quarantine for that specific area as per recombinomics update. China told WHO there is no H5N1 there and nobody has died and WHO just said their observers "saw no human fatalities." My question would be where were the observers? Since no one can get to the area concerned, of course they saw no human fatalities.
 

JohnGaltfla

#NeverTrump
Thank you CS. This is most alarming. If it has mutated and jumped species for sure, I tremble to think what next winter might be like.

:shkr: :shkr: :shkr:
 
JohnGaltfla said:
Thank you CS. This is most alarming. If it has mutated and jumped species for sure, I tremble to think what next winter might be like.

:shkr: :shkr: :shkr:

<center> :confused:

Me....... I'm starting my worrying
right now - it can come before
the normal flu season to..</center>
 

JohnGaltfla

#NeverTrump
Shakey said:
<center> :confused:

Me....... I'm starting my worrying
right now - it can come before
the normal flu season to..</center>

No, I think we'll have a break then suddenly, as the winter flu season approaches, all hell will break loose thanks to the Canaidans and Central Americans not keeping the infected ChiComs out.
 
Last edited:
JohnGaltfla said:
No, I think we'll have a braek then suddenly, as the winter flu season approaches, all hell will break loose thanks to the Canaidans and Central Americans not keeping the infected ChiComs out.


<center>:hmm:

Thanks for your advice John.

:shk:

But if you won't take it wrong of me-
I'll go ahead and continue and Prep
for a summer event......</center>
 

JohnGaltfla

#NeverTrump
Shakey said:
<center>:hmm:

Thanks for your advice John.

:shk:

But if you won't take it wrong of me-
I'll go ahead and continue and Prep
for a summer event......</center>

Oh, I'll be prepping non-stop. We have to down here in Hurricane country.
 

DustMusher

Deceased
Jmurman said:
How long do the N95 masks last?

We just had our yearly manditory classes to recertify in all those routine nursey things. The latest info on the N95 masks is that they are effective until moisture gets in the filter material. Normal breathing that is about half an hour. :shkr:

If you expect to use them as you primary barrier --GET LOTS OF THEM.

DM
 

BB

Membership Revoked
May 25, 2005

>> On May 24, 2005 the Xining news, according to internal public figure 透漏, the early morning stops to May 24, the Qinghai epidemic disease area because the infection birds and beasts flu causes the casualty already increased to 121 people, because the epidemic disease area too dispersed, for treated and cured the work to bring the serious puzzle, the Qinghai Province local medical personnel which the participation treated and cured has 11 people already to confirm the death, at present China official still uses the expression was: At present still nobody infection birds and beasts flu, and stricter blockade epidemic disease area news. <<

The May 24 update of the bird flu situation in Qinghai has the number of H5N1 cases increasing from 51 to 121, and the number dead increasing from 6 to 11. These reports are not confirmed. The Xining News indicates a news blackout has now been imposed.

WHO has made inquiries and China has denied any human cases of H5N1 in Qinghai.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05250507/H5N1_Qinghai_Human_11.html
 
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