ECON Gold and Silver news

[Johnny Twoguns]

The cities are pretty much a loss. But the smaller towns, they might figure out that they can't toss people out en masse and hope to keep breathing.

I agree, it might take a while (months, a year?) for it to clue into the local .gov and the Sheriff's Dept. that the former paradigm is gone and they have to figure out new ways. There will be a lot of corruption around, and power plays; and if you study your western history most people are sheep and will not stand up to bad guys in big bunches. But I do live in a state with a lot of hunting rifles with a lot of scopes; I just hope it won't get THAT bad around here.

 

[Blacknarwhal]

I agree, it might take a while (months, a year?) for it to clue into the local .gov and the Sheriff's Dept. that the former paradigm is gone and they have to figure out new ways. There will be a lot of corruption around, and power plays; and if you study your western history most people are sheep and will not stand up to bad guys in big bunches. But I do live in a state with a lot of hunting rifles with a lot of scopes; I just hope it won't get THAT bad around here.

It helps that, in the smaller towns, it's a pretty safe bet the people doing the tossing actually KNOW the tossees.

 

[Kathy in FL]

Hfcomms said:
Real estate was viable but in the great depression nobody had any money and landowners couldn’t pay their taxes and lost their property to the bank. What happens when tenants can’t pay the rent and you in turn can’t pay the mortgage or taxes, etc? A good stash of tangibles that can not bankrupt and have no counterparty risk can not only enable you to pay your taxes but also be able to pick up distressed property on the cheap. Real wealth never disappears it just changes hands.

Sorry but the bolded part simply isn't true. Yes, some landowners lost their property ... to whomever they owed their mortgage to and not always was that a bank. But you statement that nobody had any money simply isn't true. I have actual cancelled checked from my great grandfather during the Depression where he was paying his bills and the bank honored those checks. The bank was Planter's Bank. That bank still existed at least until I was a young woman and my great grandmother was still using that same account until her passing.

Even wiki admits that the mortgage crisis of the GD era was mostly due to a bubble in non-farm home values and the like. Interesting reading.

National Mortgage Crisis of the 1930s - Wikipedia

Look, I'm not some Great Depression Deny'er. Bad things did happen. It was rough all over, of course. But the broad stroke that is often used to paint that the fear that "everyone" experienced the GD in the same way is incorrect. My greats - all four sets - were all poor farmers and never got much out of that socio-economic level. Most were still recovering from what happened to their families during the first American Civil War and the banking crashes of the late 1800s and early 1900s. But they were quite capable of paying their bills including their taxes and mortgage. They lost children to diptheria and measles but no one starved and no one in the family including their children lost their homes/farms to a bank or anyone else for that matter.

My inlaws, beyond poor children of immigrants, nearly starved a few times but that was mostly because the father in each of their homes were gamblers. One committed suicide rather than face he was an irresponsible a-hole and the other left his family when my mother was in grade school (ultimately to be raised by her oldest sister) and her jack-hole brothers - most similar to their abusive father - ran away to have some fun until it caught up with them. That was social causes for their socio-economic level, not GD-caused.

Every family likely has a different story to tell. Some sad, and some that simply lived their lives despite what other people were experiencing.

 

[Kathy in FL]

Having the little piece of land that we have the ability to have horses and wagon and a plow...is a bonus if no electricity...no gas is pumped ....in fact the local doctor who built this house made house made house calls in his horse and buggy....and compounded medicine here
This house had the first phone in this area.
And yes this house will has a land line....:-)..in fact I was even talking to my cousin in AZ last night landline to landline....but we could talk cell to cell or sat phone to sat phone...
The doctor heated this house with wood....we still heat this house with wood off of this property......yep we have a crosscut saw too..if the dollar crashes...I think we will return more to 1870 than 1929......

Possibly, or some variation of it. A lot will depend on people's health and ability to keep up with whatever lifestyle they wind up with.

I suspect, just like with covid, there will be an initial "die off" but for different reasons. China manufactures a lot of the medications used in this country. If not China then some other country. That is one of the big things we need to bring back to this country, the manufacture of our medical supplies, so we aren't so dependent on countries that aren't friendly to us.

 

[Kathy in FL]

Could say that the other way around too, "Be careful that this argument doesn’t get turned into one about LAWS as opposed to one of the morals/ethics (feelings)."

Often these days, especially in landlord/tenant "RIGHTS" disputes, the tenant is sheltered protected, subsidized, -much to the detriment of the property owner- by the "law."

So in TSHTF scenario, it'll be important to not get the so called "Law" confused with MY FEELINGS which are rooted heavily in morality and fairness, weighted slightly to the "house"...

Like we were taught growing up ... the LAW isn't FAIR, but it is supposed to be JUST. Unfortunately that is no longer true. Too many people equate "fair" with "feelings" instead of understanding that the Constitution was designed so that the law is to be Just.

Each situation when it comes to evictions, is supposed to be considered both under the law and individually to circumstance. The reason for the protection of tenants is because there are some real a-hole landlords/property owners out there. However, it should be the same level of consideration for the property owner. That's the reason for the legal contract called a Lease Agreement and how it must conform to the law. It is a contract between two parties. The contract can be broken by mutual recission, but more often it is one party or the other that breaks the contract and there are remedies for if that happens in the contract itself.

 

[Kathy in FL]

That is inaccurate although I can easily understand why someone who really isn't into it would think that. As an example on Jan 1st 2000 the S&P 500 had a print of $1425 and on Jan 1st 2024 the S&P 500 had a print of $4804 or a 3.3x rate of return over the last 24 years. Not too bad.

On Jan 1st of 2000 gold had a print of about $288 and on Jan 1st 2024 gold closed at $2062 or a 7.16x rate of return over 24 years. That gold that laid in your safe outperformed the S&P 500 more than 2x over being in the index. And that was with no counterparty risk or depending on someone else to perform or deliver.

Now obviously I realize that certain individual stocks or even something like BTC if you get in at the right time fortunes can be made but that is kind of like hitting the numbers at roulette. I'm all for people speculating on various things but never more than they are willing to lose and a lot of people are piling into things over FOMO and are going to lose it all when they can't get out.

Gold has more than preserved it's purchasing power and increased it over the indexes just by sitting there and doing nothing. And....you don't have to lose sleep at night hoping that it doesn't tank.

º

What I mean by lazy is that a person doesn't have to do anything for the gold to go up or down in value. And that's fine. But to me, it is still lazy even if it just sits there accruing increased value.

For an income producing property to increase in value you have to work. I could be snarky and just say it is because you don't understand or aren't into income producing properties but we won't go there. Simply put our income producing properties have well outperformed gold because it comes with a monthly income that also retains the equity of the increasing value of the asset itself.

In other words if you spend the increased value of the gold then the gold is gone. If you spend the income from the income producing property, you still have the asset and the equity it contains. Of course it is measured against any expenses but most smart landowners get out of debt as quickly as possible unless they are in it to leverage existing equity to buy more real estate or some other investment. But that still means you have a monthly income from the property added to the value of the asset itself.

Gold can't compete with that. It doesn't provide an income beyond the increase in equity in the PM that is realized once it is sold. If you don't sell it, you don't realize any income. But that doesn't mean gold/PMs of any sort are bad. Quite the contrary. They simply fulfill a different piece of a person's financial strategy.

 

[Johnny Twoguns]

Sorry but the bolded part simply isn't true. Yes, some landowners lost their property ... to whomever they owed their mortgage to and not always was that a bank. But you statement that nobody had any money simply isn't true. I have actual cancelled checked from my great grandfather during the Depression where he was paying his bills and the bank honored those checks. The bank was Planter's Bank. That bank still existed at least until I was a young woman and my great grandmother was still using that same account until her passing.

Even wiki admits that the mortgage crisis of the GD era was mostly due to a bubble in non-farm home values and the like. Interesting reading.

National Mortgage Crisis of the 1930s - Wikipedia

Look, I'm not some Great Depression Deny'er. Bad things did happen. It was rough all over, of course. But the broad stroke that is often used to paint that the fear that "everyone" experienced the GD in the same way is incorrect. My greats - all four sets - were all poor farmers and never got much out of that socio-economic level. Most were still recovering from what happened to their families during the first American Civil War and the banking crashes of the late 1800s and early 1900s. But they were quite capable of paying their bills including their taxes and mortgage. They lost children to diptheria and measles but no one starved and no one in the family including their children lost their homes/farms to a bank or anyone else for that matter.

My inlaws, beyond poor children of immigrants, nearly starved a few times but that was mostly because the father in each of their homes were gamblers. One committed suicide rather than face he was an irresponsible a-hole and the other left his family when my mother was in grade school (ultimately to be raised by her oldest sister) and her jack-hole brothers - most similar to their abusive father - ran away to have some fun until it caught up with them. That was social causes for their socio-economic level, not GD-caused.

Every family likely has a different story to tell. Some sad, and some that simply lived their lives despite what other people were experiencing.

True, but that was a different world. Completely different, and a dollar was worth a dollar and it was in no way of danger of being discarded or collapsing completely. It was also a rural world to a great degree. Millions raised their own food and sold the surplus without .gov interference. The USA hadn't lost two generations to the marxists.

There will be similarities, but the great differences will far outweigh those. Millions did die back then; starved or froze or died of sickness brought on due to starvation, cold, lack of support. That has been covered up to a great degree. The USA did not have the super plague of violence that is almost everywhere today, it didn't happen back then. Most people followed law and order. Not today. 50-60% of the GDP right now is .gov spending. When the dollar collapses .gov collapses, Feds for sure, most if not many States.
A different world back then.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WNsZ8pEOcg

 

[Kathy in FL]

Indeed no. I almost look for the sheriff's departments in question to simply refuse. They'll likely KNOW it's a suicide run, and even if it weren't, how many of them will be able to look themselves in the eye after escorting Granny out of her house into the snow because the social security checks don't arrive any more and she can't pay what the county says she "must."

Probably a lot of smaller counties will just start mass firing and paring back services as hard as possible before they start seizing houses they can't begin to sell anyway.

That won't happen. It didn't happen during any of the severe housing crashed we've experienced, not even the most recent one in 2007/2008.

You need to keep evictions and foreclosures as separate issues because they are. Very different.

Foreclosures are when someone holding a mortgage brings legal action against someone for breaking the mortgage agreement. If they break it for something like not carrying insurance then they forceplace an insurance policy and it doesn't have to go to foreclosure. There are some other options as well. You can "work with" someone to give them time to come up with a remedy for the foreclosure. There are also all of the new foreclosure laws that went into effect post 2007/2008 ... such as in Florida the person holding the mortgage must have the original documents in their possession. If you don't have the original documents you will not get a foreclosure. I know a bunch of people that got out of their foreclosure ... heck, their entire mortgage ... because the original documents have been lost. Then they wound up losing the property anyway, usually because they didn't pay their taxes.

Failure to pay taxes is yet a third situation that is very different from eviction or foreclosure. It generally takes a minimum of three years for a person to lose a property to failure to pay taxes. Municipalities don't like to run tax deeds, etc. because everyone loses and it costs a lot of money to get that done.

Evictions is a failure of one person/party to abide by a short term contract (generally one year as opposed to say a 30 year mortgage). They don't "own" the property, they are paying for the chance to live in a property. Most evictions are on multi-family type units (apartments of some type) rather than SFR (single family residential). Each state has their own laws how an eviction takes place. In Florida it goes like this ... first the landlord issues a three-day notice (3 business days) that there is a non-payment of rent. If the tenant does not take advantage of those three days to make a payment or arrangement for payment then the landlord serves an eviction ... but that's not to say the tenant is being evicted yet. Once served the tenant then has 5 days (business days) to respond to the court. If they don't respond then there is a summary judgment. If they respond but don't put money with the clerk of the court to cover the amount owed then there is a summary judgment. If they respond and put money with the court then there is a hearing.

What you have to remember whether there is a summary judgment or hearing, getting the judge/court to respond is generally a two week to two month process. And lets just assume there is a summary judgment. The writ is issued but it isn't executed until it is taken to the sheriff's office and it generally takes two weeks for the execution to be carried out. But wait, there's more. If the tenant makes an emergency plea during that time period between when the writ of possession being signed and the execution of the writ, the sheriff kicks it back to the court for clarification which ... is a pain in the butt and takes however long it takes. We've had tenants really play the system that make sure they file an emergency stay on the day that the write is to be served and executed multiple times until they've pissed off the sheriff enough and the judge/court enough that their pleas are simply denied. And they can do this even with no money being deposited with the court.

So ...

Sheriffs no the score. They will not be abdicating their job of serving and executing writs of possession.

Now, let's remind people what happened during covid when the government interfered with the law being carried out by putting mandates in place that prevented evictions and foreclosures.

It ran a lot of small, individual landlords out of the business, leaving it up to larger investment groups. Most of them it was because of the risk and the headaches. The benefit of the investment groups is that risk is spread among individual owners so if there is loss on an investment, it is generally small enough that it is simply a tax write-off ... and some of that may even be intentional. If there is only one investor, they take all the risk.

You want to know why rents are so high? Because of gov interference in the law. When they screwed around with the natural order of things everything went into inflation mode like a vicious catch-22. There was also the problem of the velocity of money in the system that also created inflation. The Fed has tried to slow that down by increasing interest rates but the gov screwed around too much and for now it is working a little but not much. SFR's haven't really come down all that much and income producing properties not at all and in fact are still climbing in value if somewhat slower. Rents are trying to stabilize but unsuccessfully in markets that are hot.

All of that inflation is now affecting the PMs market because those in control can't completely stop it. And the price of PMs have gone up but so has the cost of everything else. I don't think the market manipulators are really interested in allowing PMs to shoot to the moon, just allow it just enough to drive interest so that they make money off of any panic buying/selling, because let's be honest they are the ones that in the end are going to be making the money off of it.

We have PMs but don't really count on them to do much for us. They are more of a method of moving some of our wealth from one generation to the next in our strategy. It is one of the reasons that we haven't sold any of our real estate that is still "working" and providing a monthly income. We may over this next year or two, but that will be more of an issue of how we want to change our lifestyle rather than no longer being confident in real estate as an investment. We need to figure out a way to get that wealth to the next generation without it being taxed to oblivion by the feds. That's the real challenge we face in our decision making process.

And my apologies for the long post. It is an interesting topic but gets complicated when you go from generalities to individual needs and plans.

And just to explain the difference between the number of SFR's vs. Number of apartments here in the US, here's a chart I found:

 

[Southside]

Gold has more than preserved it's purchasing power and increased it over the indexes just by sitting there and doing nothing. And....you don't have to lose sleep at night hoping that it doesn't tank.

And now, it looks like it is time for metals to run again.

Party on, Garth!

 

[Johnny Twoguns]

I hope people following Gold and Silver know that PM ETF's are really just another kind of paper asset funds; YOU will most likely never get any physical out of them. It's in the agreements if you read them. They not only don't have to give you pm's for your investment, the only entity's that can withdraw metals are the insider big boys(mistyped 'goys' at first ; they also no longer need, under rules changes a few years back, HAVE to back the shares with real metal.

PSLV is different in that they actually buy metal to keep up with shares. However, if you are a little guy you won't get any physical from them either.

Just a head's up for anyone thinking "my metals are safe, I've got them stored with xxxxyyyyyzzzzz"

 

[Hfcomms]

I hope people following Gold and Silver know that PM ETF's are really just another kind of paper asset funds; YOU will most likely never get any physical out of them. It's in the agreements if you read them. They not only don't have to give you pm's for your investment, the only entity's that can withdraw metals are the insider big boys(mistyped 'goys' at first ; they also no longer need, under rules changes a few years back, HAVE to back the shares with real metal.

PSLV is different in that they actually buy metal to keep up with shares. However, if you are a little guy you won't get any physical from them either.

Just a head's up for anyone thinking "my metals are safe, I've got them stored with xxxxyyyyyzzzzz"

And if you read the fine print of the prospectus most of those funds sell off metal to pay the maintenance and business fees to run the fund. I wouldn't hold an ETF myself as you are not owning gold....but a share in a trust no different than equities and at best you are a beneficial owner and if the fund is liquidated you most likely won't get anything. At least with the Sprott funds they do own and vault metal and at least you know they aren't playing 'hide the sausage' and there is real metal backing it.

 

[hd5574]

Possibly, or some variation of it. A lot will depend on people's health and ability to keep up with whatever lifestyle they wind up with.

I suspect, just like with covid, there will be an initial "die off" but for different reasons. China manufactures a lot of the medications used in this country. If not China then some other country. That is one of the big things we need to bring back to this country, the manufacture of our medical supplies, so we aren't so dependent on countries that aren't friendly to us.

Well I do agree that we have a problem with medications....but in most cases medications themselves are a problem... listen to the side effects.. had a girl friend with COPD.. she started on vitamins and was improving....her doctor stopped that and started Rx meds...by the time she died of lung cancer....she was on 14 Rx and off those nasty vitamins...that was over 10 years ago.

DH and I and have decidedly that living healthy is a better way to go...we have learned long ago how to not catch virus infections...yes even covid....we are in our 70s on no meds...and DH works as a mechanic at a tractor dealership..full time at his age..and trust me that is hard work... I cook from scratch...can and such..and run up and down stairs all day long...work in the garden..getting ready to plant snow peas..

We sold all the paid for properties we had inherited...and owned...years ago...just too big a hassle....and got out of the rat race ...at times real estate can be rather time consuming to liquidate...

We grow a lot ...of our own food..a big plus..In this day and age...we know what is in it...not gmo....
and are friends with people who grow and raise things we don't...nothing like going out in the back and picking a big bowl of berries for breakfast ..
We agree that if you don't hold it you don't really own it.....

 

[West]

True, but that was a different world. Completely different, and a dollar was worth a dollar and it was in no way of danger of being discarded or collapsing completely. It was also a rural world to a great degree. Millions raised their own food and sold the surplus without .gov interference. The USA hadn't lost two generations to the marxists.

There will be similarities, but the great differences will far outweigh those. Millions did die back then; starved or froze or died of sickness brought on due to starvation, cold, lack of support. That has been covered up to a great degree. The USA did not have the super plague of violence that is almost everywhere today, it didn't happen back then. Most people followed law and order. Not today. 50-60% of the GDP right now is .gov spending. When the dollar collapses .gov collapses, Feds for sure, most if not many States.
A different world back then.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WNsZ8pEOcg

Excellent post!



Two bits, about $.25 cents, but $.25 real coin silver....

View: https://youtu.be/WrhAC0dFis0


Classic song about 3 minutes...

 

[Blacknarwhal]

That won't happen. It didn't happen during any of the severe housing crashed we've experienced, not even the most recent one in 2007/2008.

You need to keep evictions and foreclosures as separate issues because they are. Very different.

Foreclosures are when someone holding a mortgage brings legal action against someone for breaking the mortgage agreement. If they break it for something like not carrying insurance then they forceplace an insurance policy and it doesn't have to go to foreclosure. There are some other options as well. You can "work with" someone to give them time to come up with a remedy for the foreclosure. There are also all of the new foreclosure laws that went into effect post 2007/2008 ... such as in Florida the person holding the mortgage must have the original documents in their possession. If you don't have the original documents you will not get a foreclosure. I know a bunch of people that got out of their foreclosure ... heck, their entire mortgage ... because the original documents have been lost. Then they wound up losing the property anyway, usually because they didn't pay their taxes.

Failure to pay taxes is yet a third situation that is very different from eviction or foreclosure. It generally takes a minimum of three years for a person to lose a property to failure to pay taxes. Municipalities don't like to run tax deeds, etc. because everyone loses and it costs a lot of money to get that done.

Evictions is a failure of one person/party to abide by a short term contract (generally one year as opposed to say a 30 year mortgage). They don't "own" the property, they are paying for the chance to live in a property. Most evictions are on multi-family type units (apartments of some type) rather than SFR (single family residential). Each state has their own laws how an eviction takes place. In Florida it goes like this ... first the landlord issues a three-day notice (3 business days) that there is a non-payment of rent. If the tenant does not take advantage of those three days to make a payment or arrangement for payment then the landlord serves an eviction ... but that's not to say the tenant is being evicted yet. Once served the tenant then has 5 days (business days) to respond to the court. If they don't respond then there is a summary judgment. If they respond but don't put money with the clerk of the court to cover the amount owed then there is a summary judgment. If they respond and put money with the court then there is a hearing.

What you have to remember whether there is a summary judgment or hearing, getting the judge/court to respond is generally a two week to two month process. And lets just assume there is a summary judgment. The writ is issued but it isn't executed until it is taken to the sheriff's office and it generally takes two weeks for the execution to be carried out. But wait, there's more. If the tenant makes an emergency plea during that time period between when the writ of possession being signed and the execution of the writ, the sheriff kicks it back to the court for clarification which ... is a pain in the butt and takes however long it takes. We've had tenants really play the system that make sure they file an emergency stay on the day that the write is to be served and executed multiple times until they've pissed off the sheriff enough and the judge/court enough that their pleas are simply denied. And they can do this even with no money being deposited with the court.

So ...

Sheriffs no the score. They will not be abdicating their job of serving and executing writs of possession.

Now, let's remind people what happened during covid when the government interfered with the law being carried out by putting mandates in place that prevented evictions and foreclosures.

It ran a lot of small, individual landlords out of the business, leaving it up to larger investment groups. Most of them it was because of the risk and the headaches. The benefit of the investment groups is that risk is spread among individual owners so if there is loss on an investment, it is generally small enough that it is simply a tax write-off ... and some of that may even be intentional. If there is only one investor, they take all the risk.

You want to know why rents are so high? Because of gov interference in the law. When they screwed around with the natural order of things everything went into inflation mode like a vicious catch-22. There was also the problem of the velocity of money in the system that also created inflation. The Fed has tried to slow that down by increasing interest rates but the gov screwed around too much and for now it is working a little but not much. SFR's haven't really come down all that much and income producing properties not at all and in fact are still climbing in value if somewhat slower. Rents are trying to stabilize but unsuccessfully in markets that are hot.

All of that inflation is now affecting the PMs market because those in control can't completely stop it. And the price of PMs have gone up but so has the cost of everything else. I don't think the market manipulators are really interested in allowing PMs to shoot to the moon, just allow it just enough to drive interest so that they make money off of any panic buying/selling, because let's be honest they are the ones that in the end are going to be making the money off of it.

We have PMs but don't really count on them to do much for us. They are more of a method of moving some of our wealth from one generation to the next in our strategy. It is one of the reasons that we haven't sold any of our real estate that is still "working" and providing a monthly income. We may over this next year or two, but that will be more of an issue of how we want to change our lifestyle rather than no longer being confident in real estate as an investment. We need to figure out a way to get that wealth to the next generation without it being taxed to oblivion by the feds. That's the real challenge we face in our decision making process.

And my apologies for the long post. It is an interesting topic but gets complicated when you go from generalities to individual needs and plans.

And just to explain the difference between the number of SFR's vs. Number of apartments here in the US, here's a chart I found:

View attachment 463816

Thank you for that huge dose of perspective, but we were really only talking about people who owned their homes getting them stolen for "failure to pay taxes" in the middle of a depression.

 

[Donghe Surfer]

Martin Armstrong on public blog today:

Gold is still not breaking out, and that is good. We DO NOT want to make highs for May 7th. April appears to be a turning point, so watch the Daily Bearish Reversals. As far as a false move, we should expect that with the prospect of war. The knee-jerk reaction is typically down. Then capital regroups.

BITCOIN has different cycles from gold. When gold finally breaks out that will not necessarily be good for BITCOIN.

 

[hd5574]

True, but that was a different world. Completely different, and a dollar was worth a dollar and it was in no way of danger of being discarded or collapsing completely. It was also a rural world to a great degree. Millions raised their own food and sold the surplus without .gov interference. The USA hadn't lost two generations to the marxists.

There will be similarities, but the great differences will far outweigh those. Millions did die back then; starved or froze or died of sickness brought on due to starvation, cold, lack of support. That has been covered up to a great degree. The USA did not have the super plague of violence that is almost everywhere today, it didn't happen back then. Most people followed law and order. Not today. 50-60% of the GDP right now is .gov spending. When the dollar collapses .gov collapses, Feds for sure, most if not many States.
A different world back then.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WNsZ8pEOcg

You are so correct..it was a different world back then....my mom and dad both graduated from high school in 1929..
My dad in Virginia.. and my mom in Oklahoma...my dad's was the baby of the family..he and one aunt were the born much later than the other kids..so i was raised around much older aunts and uncles.. they all had gardens.. canned and froze .. cooked from scratch.. their was a time my grandfather had a horse and carriage.... no cars yet ..
My mom was an only child and lived through the dust bowl.... I learned their ways...they wasted nothing ..yes I saw them save aluminum foil and Christmas wrapping paper and ribbons..
I am glad that I am in the country..and able to do many things that a lot can't...and glad they took the time to teach me their ways...the old ways

 

[Hfcomms]

Martin Armstrong on public blog today:

Gold is still not breaking out, and that is good.

We really don't want to see 5K or 10K gold. As bad as things are now we won't recognize this country if the dollar collapses to the point that gold is valued at those numbers.

 

[summerthyme]

I hope people following Gold and Silver know that PM ETF's are really just another kind of paper asset funds; YOU will most likely never get any physical out of them. It's in the agreements if you read them. They not only don't have to give you pm's for your investment, the only entity's that can withdraw metals are the insider big boys(mistyped 'goys' at first ; they also no longer need, under rules changes a few years back, HAVE to back the shares with real metal.

PSLV is different in that they actually buy metal to keep up with shares. However, if you are a little guy you won't get any physical from them either.

Just a head's up for anyone thinking "my metals are safe, I've got them stored with xxxxyyyyyzzzzz"

If you don't hold it, you don't own it.

And that's going to be true of real estate as well if things really go south...

Summerthyme

 

[psychgirl]

We really don't want to see 5K or 10K gold. As bad as things are now we won't recognize this country if the dollar collapses to the point that gold is valued at those numbers.

This is what Glenn Beck was saying today!

Only he said, if it hits 3000$

 

[Johnny Twoguns]

If you don't hold it, you don't own it.

And that's going to be true of real estate as well if things really go south...

Summerthyme

I agree on the Real Estate. If things go full insurrection, terrorist actions, collapse of gov and financials, I think taking land and buildings (call it squatting, but it will really be spoils of war) could become the norm in some places.

 

[Johnny Twoguns]

We really don't want to see 5K or 10K gold. As bad as things are now we won't recognize this country if the dollar collapses to the point that gold is valued at those numbers.

I do. 5% of the population control or own 95% of the USA. To hell with those criminals, and they are corrupt insiders in a completely corrupt manipulated system. What is AOC 'worth' today on her $155K salary after less than 10 years in office?

Those people want and are actively working to make most of us dead. To hell with them. You don't live in Kansas anymore and you won't get back to it, EVER, without massive changes.

If it takes gold to go to $10-$30K, or more, so be it.

 

[Johnny Twoguns]

Martin Armstrong on public blog today:

Gold is still not breaking out, and that is good. We DO NOT want to make highs for May 7th. April appears to be a turning point, so watch the Daily Bearish Reversals. As far as a false move, we should expect that with the prospect of war. The knee-jerk reaction is typically down. Then capital regroups.

BITCOIN has different cycles from gold. When gold finally breaks out that will not necessarily be good for BITCOIN.

I listen to Martin when he is on Greg's channel and other times now and then and I also listen to what he says, but I don't agree with everything. He thinks a Republic is the worst form of .gov because it always ends up corrupt and he seems to imply Democracy is the better form. Au Contraire! First, all systems grow corrupt after a century or two or ten of power and wealth. Our system is roughly based on the Roman System instead of the Demos of Ancient Greece, because the Demos was very easily corrupted and led by mob rule; led by great evil demagogues who spoke well, the kind that sent yesterday's hero to the chopping block. Go look at Alcibiades of Athens or Demaratus of Sparta and what happened to them. As it happened in Revolutionary France, then in Communist Russia. Pure democracy always devolves into corrupt mob rule.

That said (can't shut myself up when it comes to history and politics ),

Martin is one of them. He's a rich guy and an investor. He is thinking of his pocket book. As he said above in a recent post, gold going up too quick won't be good for bitcoin. Well, bitcoin is corrupt. Shown up out of nowhere and is now a major "asset class" that no average person around the world can afford more than a few, if that.

Mind, I don't object to people bettering their lives off of it in a corrupt system; but I won't lie to myself about where it came from and why.

So, I hope gold and silver, some say God's Money, gets out of the bull pen and runs havoc.

 

[Johnny Twoguns]

Excellent post!



Two bits, about $.25 cents, but $.25 real coin silver....

View: https://youtu.be/WrhAC0dFis0


Classic song about 3 minutes...

I can still sing that song well enough, as long as the lyrics are on the screen . My singing voice still hangs in on some songs. Great old song and yeah, life was VERY different a few decades back.

 

[Johnny Twoguns]

And if you read the fine print of the prospectus most of those funds sell off metal to pay the maintenance and business fees to run the fund. I wouldn't hold an ETF myself as you are not owning gold....but a share in a trust no different than equities and at best you are a beneficial owner and if the fund is liquidated you most likely won't get anything. At least with the Sprott funds they do own and vault metal and at least you know they aren't playing 'hide the sausage' and there is real metal backing it.

But YOU still won't get any physical. If banking breaks down, if US and Canadian fiat dies, you are still shit out of luck. Best to have yours buried somewhere. Just like mining shares, they ARE going to go crazy high for a while. And I don't really know how this shakes out.

If Bill Holter and his type are right, you will lose all of that. I lost a lot of mining shares with a major US brokerage just because I didn't get in touch with them for a couple years, and the broker's THEY dealt with that held the actual shares said "sorry", he stayed out of touch too long. I thought THOSE were safe and sound.

The entire system is CORRUPT. Plan and act accordingly.

 

[Ravekid]

This has been an interesting thread for sure. Here are my thoughts:

PMs are only for a store of wealth and to hopefully provide some level of wealth once there is stabilization after a financial collapse. PMs won't work during the crash. Too many guns in the US for one, so one produces a 1/10 silver coin for some food. You will likely be the only one, so no you are marked as possibly have 100s, or maybe 1000s, of those tiny silver coins.

Real estate is just as iffy during an economic crunch. Trying to evict people can be deadly. There is always the person who appears to be cooperative, but they are full of rage inside. As they leave the house, they toss a flare towards the pool of gas they just poured all over the house. Remember, this is economic collapse, so good luck getting any sort of insurance company to payout. Worse is constantly trying to make sure the local government continues to view your ownership of the property as valid. Way too many land grabbers out there. It kinda would be like the show Yellowstone. So many people fighting over land that is legally owned by someone. We've all seen what various levels of government will do to land ownership in good times with their eminent domain laws. Why should we think such people will behave any better during a financial collapse?

Government confiscation also brings me to this question about PMs. What is better: Currency based PMs or just run of the mill coins or bars? My guess is that that any functioning government that is even the slightest bit about control and desperate to return to the old ways pre-collapse, will outlaw all private ownership of PMs. They may even start up a new currency based on PMs, but they will try to say any gold or silver item must be turned over to the local treasury/mint for use in issuing the new currency. Who knows what the ratio would. Would it be a one ounce coin gets people 10 1/10 ounces coins of the new currency? Or will it only pay out 10% on the PM ounce? Likely will depend on how fearful those in charge are of riots and unrest.

 

[Wyominglarry]

During The Great Taking nothing will be safe, except PMs that you actually have in your hand. If the US were to price gold and silver high enough to pay off the national debt then we can start this fiat bubble all over again. Does anyone trust our government to do anything at all in the best interest of its citizens? I for one think the government is totally corrupt.

 

[Johnny Twoguns]

This has been an interesting thread for sure. Here are my thoughts:

PMs are only for a store of wealth and to hopefully provide some level of wealth once there is stabilization after a financial collapse. PMs won't work during the crash. Too many guns in the US for one, so one produces a 1/10 silver coin for some food. You will likely be the only one, so no you are marked as possibly have 100s, or maybe 1000s, of those tiny silver coins.

Real estate is just as iffy during an economic crunch. Trying to evict people can be deadly. There is always the person who appears to be cooperative, but they are full of rage inside. As they leave the house, they toss a flare towards the pool of gas they just poured all over the house. Remember, this is economic collapse, so good luck getting any sort of insurance company to payout. Worse is constantly trying to make sure the local government continues to view your ownership of the property as valid. Way too many land grabbers out there. It kinda would be like the show Yellowstone. So many people fighting over land that is legally owned by someone. We've all seen what various levels of government will do to land ownership in good times with their eminent domain laws. Why should we think such people will behave any better during a financial collapse?

Government confiscation also brings me to this question about PMs. What is better: Currency based PMs or just run of the mill coins or bars? My guess is that that any functioning government that is even the slightest bit about control and desperate to return to the old ways pre-collapse, will outlaw all private ownership of PMs. They may even start up a new currency based on PMs, but they will try to say any gold or silver item must be turned over to the local treasury/mint for use in issuing the new currency. Who knows what the ratio would. Would it be a one ounce coin gets people 10 1/10 ounces coins of the new currency? Or will it only pay out 10% on the PM ounce? Likely will depend on how fearful those in charge are of riots and unrest.

To a point I've been basing my planning on reading direct reports from survivors of Bosnia/Serbia, Venezuela, etc. Gold and especially silver become the only form of valuable money and still hasn't lost it's shine. None of the conflicts in my life time were true Mad Max because there were always other countries around that weren't going through what they did.

I admit to the possibility of Mad Max, but I don't think that will happen.

Local govs won't ban PM's; they won't be able to. They will do what they can to get or take them. If you have enough, and are a bit ruthless, you may buy or scare some local powers into cooperation or compliance. It could get bad enough where you have to decide to be a sheep and get shorn, try to become a sheep dog, become a wolf, or a sheep in wolf's clothing. In a world of pyrates it is probably safest to become a Robin Hood (try to figure out that messing up metaphors I know what I meant!)

Anyhoooow, silver never lost it's luster in Bosnia/Herzegovina, and it still shines in Venezuela and all points north. And yes most people that have some PM's also have lead and copper.

 

[Johnny Twoguns]

During The Great Taking nothing will be safe, except PMs that you actually have in your hand. If the US were to price gold and silver high enough to pay off the national debt then we can start this fiat bubble all over again. Does anyone trust our government to do anything at all in the best interest of its citizens? I for one think the government is totally corrupt.

If it comes to that, politicians won't be safe either.

 

[von Koehler]

This has been an interesting thread for sure. Here are my thoughts:

PMs are only for a store of wealth and to hopefully provide some level of wealth once there is stabilization after a financial collapse. PMs won't work during the crash. Too many guns in the US for one, so one produces a 1/10 silver coin for some food. You will likely be the only one, so no you are marked as possibly have 100s, or maybe 1000s, of those tiny silver coins.

Real estate is just as iffy during an economic crunch. Trying to evict people can be deadly. There is always the person who appears to be cooperative, but they are full of rage inside. As they leave the house, they toss a flare towards the pool of gas they just poured all over the house. Remember, this is economic collapse, so good luck getting any sort of insurance company to payout. Worse is constantly trying to make sure the local government continues to view your ownership of the property as valid. Way too many land grabbers out there. It kinda would be like the show Yellowstone. So many people fighting over land that is legally owned by someone. We've all seen what various levels of government will do to land ownership in good times with their eminent domain laws. Why should we think such people will behave any better during a financial collapse?

Government confiscation also brings me to this question about PMs. What is better: Currency based PMs or just run of the mill coins or bars? My guess is that that any functioning government that is even the slightest bit about control and desperate to return to the old ways pre-collapse, will outlaw all private ownership of PMs. They may even start up a new currency based on PMs, but they will try to say any gold or silver item must be turned over to the local treasury/mint for use in issuing the new currency. Who knows what the ratio would. Would it be a one ounce coin gets people 10 1/10 ounces coins of the new currency? Or will it only pay out 10% on the PM ounce? Likely will depend on how fearful those in charge are of riots and unrest.

I watched a story about a man who lost his house in a foreclosure.

He took a bulldozer and leveled it. This was during the 2008 recession.

 

[Thunderdragon]

As for evictions, the great majority of evictions are on renters. Not on the property owners under foreclosure. Most foreclosures take months to years to take affect. Evictions have actual property owners on the other side that have their own constitutional rights. And most people who wind up at the point of eviction have already lost their utilities, which makes remaining in the property untenable. The other thing that people forget is that more than likely it won’t just be guns on one side.

So which side is anybody going to be on? The side of the constitutional right of those that own the property? Or those that have failed and their legal obligations to pay rent or mortgage that they knowingly took out on the property? And be careful which side you choose. It will determine whether you believe in the constitution or whether you are simply out for what you can get, or out to be on the side of those with the most guns, which may not be those that believe in the constitution.

Be careful that this argument doesn’t get turned into one about feelings as opposed to one of the law.

I only own property in counties that voted at least 70% for trump over biden in 2020 election. Not kidding. 2nd qualifier is has to be a state where trump won 55% or more of vote. Funny. The highest trump county where I own a property. 82% trump. 14% biden. county is small. But booming. maybe people are figuring it out.

 

[Reasonable Rascal]

For those who believe the government can outlaw private ownership of PM's, how are they going to do that, effectively? By that I mean, how will they force people to turn them in? How do they know who has what? Please don't tell me they are going to go house-to-house. That would likely end up being just as costly as trying to physically round up all the guns. Costly as in lives. If current events tell us anything it is that even the police - SWAT et al included - are not bulletproof.

As far as being made a target once it is known you have PMs, how if that any different than it was 150 years ago? People owned gun's they used PMs in the form of coins for daily commerce, and they didn't get ambushed on the way back from the general store because they parted with a dime or even a dollar.

It disappoints me to no end the number of folks even on here who seem to base their beliefs on the events that would follow the world as we know it coming to an end on apocalyptic novels, Youtube blogs and Hollywood movies. I have even seen it claimed here once by a member who said they knew how things would go precisely because they read such literature. I do too, but I don't base my world-view on the Ashes series (knew the author personally, too) or the Guardians, The Survivalist and others.

RR

 

[Johnny Twoguns]

I watched a story about a man who lost his house in a foreclosure.

He took a bulldozer and leveled it. This was during the 2008 recession.

I saw that. I never followed up on it; he probably went to prison.

I knew a Dep Sheriff I used to go shooting with. He showed me a chest full of rounds of a hundred different calibers. He said he would use them to defend/keep his house if things got that bad. I told him his family was more important than that piece of land. That was 33 years and a lifetime ago.

If you are going to do anything like that, have a courtesy to yourself and wait until "law and order" has broken down. You can play the game until you have a hand in the game, or you can be stupid.

 

[Johnny Twoguns]

For those who believe the government can outlaw private ownership of PM's, how are they going to do that, effectively? By that I mean, how will they force people to turn them in? How do they know who has what? Please don't tell me they are going to go house-to-house. That would likely end up being just as costly as trying to physically round up all the guns. Costly as in lives. If current events tell us anything it is that even the police - SWAT et al included - are not bulletproof.

As far as being made a target once it is known you have PMs, how if that any different than it was 150 years ago? People owned gun's they used PMs in the form of coins for daily commerce, and they didn't get ambushed on the way back from the general store because they parted with a dime or even a dollar.

It disappoints me to no end the number of folks even on here who seem to base their beliefs on the events that would follow the world as we know it coming to an end on apocalyptic novels, Youtube blogs and Hollywood movies. I have even seen it claimed here once by a member who said they knew how things would go precisely because they read such literature. I do too, but I don't base my world-view on the Ashes series (knew the author personally, too) or the Guardians, The Survivalist and others.

RR

How was it different 1300 hundred years ago. You hire muscle, start with friends and relatives, IF they have some admiration for you. If not, do your best. Compete if you can.

Very few own silver now, nothing like 1929. Yeah, fascists can try it. I'm not sure America is the place that will work. Lots of patriots, very pissed off, lots of firearms, a very lawless place in many places. This isn't North VS South anymore. People are pissed off everywhere. Revolucion.

 

[West]

So glad I only stack toothpics and cotton swabs. You can't eat PMs!

 

[emiliozapata]

What I mean by lazy is that a person doesn't have to do anything for the gold to go up or down in value. And that's fine. But to me, it is still lazy even if it just sits there accruing increased value.

For an income producing property to increase in value you have to work. I could be snarky and just say it is because you don't understand or aren't into income producing properties but we won't go there. Simply put our income producing properties have well outperformed gold because it comes with a monthly income that also retains the equity of the increasing value of the asset itself.

In other words if you spend the increased value of the gold then the gold is gone. If you spend the income from the income producing property, you still have the asset and the equity it contains. Of course it is measured against any expenses but most smart landowners get out of debt as quickly as possible unless they are in it to leverage existing equity to buy more real estate or some other investment. But that still means you have a monthly income from the property added to the value of the asset itself.

Gold can't compete with that. It doesn't provide an income beyond the increase in equity in the PM that is realized once it is sold. If you don't sell it, you don't realize any income. But that doesn't mean gold/PMs of any sort are bad. Quite the contrary. They simply fulfill a different piece of a person's financial strategy.

ok, thanks

 

[Johnny Twoguns]

So glad I only stack toothpicks and cotton swabs. You can't eat PMs!

Toothpicks and cotton swabs suck in a stew.

Been there, done that. NEVER again!

 

[lanningro]

Gram lived with us when I was growing up. Lots of stories about the Depression. They lived in Anderson, Missouri and had 250 acres, two teams of mules and a tractor. And the only well that didn't dry up during the dust bowl. She told me a number of times they would do the yearly budget, to the penny. And that amazing year in the late 30's when the budget was 700.00 Dollars. Two Uncles and my Mother grew up there. Never met Grandfather, he passed in the early 40's when a tractor rolled on him. Never forgot the volumes of knowledge she passed on to me. Like, how to survive.

 

[Wyominglarry]

People today will not stand for a government, which we all know is totally corrupt, trying to take your PMs. When the economy gets so bad that the elites and their banking buddies tell Americans to turn in their PMs that is when the guns come out. Now if the Great Taking actually happens that too will get the guns out. I am not sure how anyone is going to control 330 million Americans and another 30 million illegals when things go TU. When FDR told Americans in 1933 to turn in their gold those people are totally different in their thought processes than those of us living today. Back then the majority of Americans trusted their government to do the right thing for their best interests. Now no one trusts anyone in government. The Fourth Turning is right on schedule. Along with the micronova and the earth losing its magnetic shield.

 

[Hfcomms]

For those who believe the government can outlaw private ownership of PM's, how are they going to do that, effectively? By that I mean, how will they force people to turn them in? How do they know who has what? Please don't tell me they are going to go house-to-house. That would likely end up being just as costly as trying to physically round up all the guns.

And the guns have a paperwork trail and serial numbers while the coins in your safe don't have serial numbers and many of them don't have a paperwork trail. And people also need to keep in mind that wealthy people either make the rules or influence those that make the rules. The wealthy that have metal themselves are going to want to be able to retain that metal and use it going forward in the future.

Also back when Roosevelt issued the order to turn gold in exceptions were made for collectibles which is why a lot of people own MS graded pre-33 gold and there was a lot of gold in private citizens hands which they could confiscate. Fast forward 90 years and other than personal jewelry there is very little gold that citizens own today. Only about .5% of investible money is in physical gold privately held so there is very little gold in the wild out there for them to confiscate.

I know some people are worried about confiscation and some Youtube channels focus on it but it really doesn't worry me at all. They can't get guns off the street and would have even less luck with any gold that people have.

 

[TidesofTruth]

IMO Gold and Silver are a vehicle to temporarily store value from asset to asset. Gold and silver have performed as an investment mechanism extremely poor. But If I told you that I am up 25% in 6 months. You would say that is a wonderful investment. IT IS NOT. I struck at the right time but I must make it to an asset before they make it so miserable to own that I rather give it away than to be caught with it. Digital is coming and they will not let you trade outside their system. You can laugh and scoff all you want but the punishment for trading outside their system will be worse than most people can bear. And you can say "there will always be an underground market" But when food is scarce and they are giving bounty credits away for information leading to an arrest of underground traders, Who are you gong to trust to buy from? In 1978 My Father struck a price in 1979 of 78.00 an oz and was over the moon when it went to 140.00 he was told it could go to $300. He held his investment. And that was the problem. For him it was an investment that never recovered some 45 years later. I use PMS as a storehouse. In and out hedge a little and then move them into other assets.