INTL Europe: Politics, Economics, and Military- September 2020

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
An interesting point of view. One that I have seen elsewhere which makes me wonder about the degree to which COVID-19 and its response was a planned event.


Will A Second COVID-19 Lockdown Coincide With A "No Deal" Brexit?
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by Tyler Durden
Fri, 09/25/2020 - 02:00
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Authored by Steven Guinness,
When I last posted an article about Brexit in May I discussed how the convergence of a possible world trade organisation scenario with the EU and the Covid-19 lockdown measures would serve to exacerbate the economic strain that the UK is currently being subjected to. I argued that as the devastation brought about by the self imposed lockdown became more profound, not only would a WTO Brexit compound matters but it would also put further downward pressure on sterling and prove a harbinger for a significant spike in inflation over the coming years.

Four months on and a number of developments have since occurred. As I predicted, the transition period was not extended, meaning it will come to an end on the 31st December 2020. Shortly afterwards a cabinet office document of ‘worst case scenarios‘ was revealed that detailed what may happen should a no deal Brexit coincide with a ‘second wave‘ of Covid-19. One possibility raised was how the government could decide to deploy the military on the streets of Britain in the event of public disorder.

Earlier this month, with trade negotiations floundering, Boris Johnson announced that if a deal cannot be agreed by October 15th the UK will walk away and revert to WTO tariffs. Following on from this was his latest intervention came just days ago when he unveiled renewed Covid-19 restrictions on the population after a rise in those testing positive for the virus, just as the final rounds of Brexit negotiations are due to begin.

One aspect to pick up on here is how when addressing the nation this week, Johnson made clear that he would be prepared to authorise using the military to ‘backfill when necessary‘ should the police require more support to enforce restrictions. Johnson also told the House of Commons that he had the option to ‘draw on military support where required to free up the police.’
Johnson’s official spokesman had this to say on the matter:
This would involve the military backfilling certain duties, such as office roles and guarding protected sites, so police officers can be out enforcing the virus response.
This is not about providing any additional powers to the military, or them replacing the police in enforcement roles, and they will not be handing out fines. It is about freeing up more police officers.
So here we have both Brexit and Covid-19 being talked about as potentially escalating to the stage where the military could be called upon under the guise of helping to maintain social order.
From my perspective here’s why I think this should be taken seriously:

Before the original lockdown was implemented on March 24th, I saw first hand in my role as a supermarket worker how the usual lucid nature of shoppers rapidly gave way to palpable fear and hysteria. After weeks of wall to wall coverage on Covid-19 in the media, the threat of a national lockdown began to enter the narrative. People responded by rushing to buy up food and medical supplies. As a consequence supply chains were severely impacted with shelves lying empty for weeks on end.

This demonstrated to me one inescapable fact. As much as people claim to distrust the mainstream media, what it actually showed was just how many continue to rely on outlets like Sky, the BBC and daily newspapers in guiding their perceptions. Their relentless messaging was undoubtedly a driving influence over the behaviour of people leading into the lockdown.

What I witnessed was how the threat of being deprived of essentials triggered within people a survival instinct. After weeks of preparatory propaganda, they knew what was coming and were inspired to act. The UK’s ceremonial exit from the EU on January 31st was now no longer part of the news agenda. Months of discord over Brexit was consigned to history.

But here’s the problem – the UK did not leave the European Union in any meaningful way on January 31st. Nothing materially changed in terms of the relationship. When those in support of Brexit declared on the morning of February 1st 2020 that the sky had not fallen in, they were at best being disingenuous. This is primarily because the country remains a member of the single market and the customs union. The real point of exit, when the UK is due to vacate the institutions that make up the EU, is not set to happen until the end of 2020 when the transition period expires.

The arrival of Covid-19 rendered Brexit an afterthought. But with the end of the transition period less than 100 days away, this is no longer the case. People are beginning to think about Brexit again.

My worry is that the public response to a likely no deal scenario will be met in a similar manner to how fears over a national lockdown were met. Boris Johnson’s deadline of October 15th for a trade deal, which coincides with a European Council meeting, is quickly approaching, as is the threat of a second lockdown.

If Johnson keeps to his word and the 15th passes without agreement, the UK will declare their intention to move onto WTO tariffs come January 1st 2021. That would leave exactly eleven weeks before this became a reality. Plenty of time for the media to begin a campaign of fear based propaganda – centred around stories of food and medicine shortages – and for the government to promote a nationwide communications programme urging people to prepare for potential disruption.

In truth it has already started. This week the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, Michael Gove, warned that in a no deal scenario up to 7,000 port bound trucks looking to cross the channel could be delayed if hauliers do not have the requisite paperwork:

Irrespective of the outcome of negotiations between the UK and EU, traders will face new customs controls and processes. Simply put, if traders, both in the UK and EU, have not completed the right paperwork, their goods will be stopped when entering the EU and disruption will occur. It is essential that traders act now and get ready for new formalities.

With Christmas approaching, I suspect that warnings such as this will once again trigger within people the same fear that they felt back in March. There are already some signs, albeit isolated, of people starting to stockpile.

But unlike six months ago, the British public now have more than Covid-19 to consider. On the one hand you have people observing social distancing rules, which were not a requirement during the first bout of panic buying. On the other are increasing concerns that supermarkets may soon see an upsurge in customer demand off the back of a potential second lockdown, supply chain disruption following a no deal Brexit and the yearly onslaught of Christmas shopping.

It seems obvious to me that the media would portray a ‘second wave‘ of Covid-19 and a disorderly Brexit as a two pronged threat to the public.


You can probably tell where I am going with this. If a second lockdown is implemented, I suspect it would occur in the weeks leading up to Christmas. As fears would mount over access to supplies and people began to pile into supermarkets to stock up, warnings would be abound that because of the uptake in custom people are failing to social distance resulting in the spread of the virus, which in turn would create a rationale within the media for a second lockdown. A economically ruinous lockdown that would largely be blamed on Brexit. And, of course, running beneath Brexit is the narrative of a rise in nationalism and protectionism, which global planners have cited as dangers to the post World War Two ‘rules based global order.’

If you put aside any ideological bias you may have over Brexit, you begin to see how a chaotic separation from the EU is beneficial to global planners. This is something I have discussed in numerous articles over the past couple of years. Central bankers speak of the ‘post Brexit architecture‘ in terms of the the future make-up of the global economic system. Most recently the World Economic Forum launched their ‘Great Reset‘ initiative, which includes plans for a global economic reset that would likely encompass the recomposition of currencies, the introduction of central bank digital currency and a desire to replace ‘failed institutions, processes and rules with new ones that are better suited to current and future needs‘.

One of those institutions just happens to be the World Trade Organisation, which was earmarked for reform back in 2018. The WTO would play the leading role in a no deal Brexit outcome, and if it is shown as being not up to the job then this strengthens the hand of global planners to either remodel or replace it entirely.

As I have long argued, the most vulnerable aspect to Brexit is pound sterling, both in terms of its value and its role as a global reserve currency. Brexit can and I think will play a part in global planners attempting to reconstruct the economic system in their own image. In that sense it is why I believe they want Brexit to happen and in as disorderly a way as possible. Chaos is often advantageous to globalists, not detrimental. Especially when they have already laid out their solutions through Sustainable Development and the Great Reset. All they need is a sufficient number of crises in order to position themselves as the benefactors.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane



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2 wounded in knife attack in Paris, suspect arrested
By ANGELA CHARLTON and OLEG CETINIC3 minutes ago



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French soldiers patrol after four people have been wounded in a knife attack near the former offices of satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo, Friday Sept. 25, 2020 in Paris. A police official said officers are "actively hunting" for the perpetrators and have cordoned off the area including the former Charlie Hebdo offices after a suspect package was noticed nearby. Islamic extremists attacked the offices in 2015, killing 12 people. (AP Photo/Thibault Camus)

PARIS (AP) — At least two people were wounded in a knife attack Friday near the former offices of the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo in Paris, police said Friday. A suspect has been arrested.

A Paris police official said that while authorities initially thought two attackers were involved, they now believe it was only one person, who was detained near the Bastille plaza in eastern Paris, a city police official said. The official said police are still searching the area while they question the arrested suspect.

Police initially announced that four people were wounded in the attack, but the official told The Associated Press that there are in fact only two confirmed wounded. Police could not explain the discrepancies.


It is unclear what motivated the attack Friday or whether it had any link to Charlie Hebdo, which moved offices after they were attacked by Islamic extremists in 2015, who killed 12 people inside.

AP reporters at the scene of Friday’s police operation saw officers flooding into the neighborhood, near the Richard Lenoir subway station. Police cordoned off the area including the former Charlie Hebdo offices after a suspect package was noticed nearby, according the police official.

Police did not release the identities of the attacker or the wounded, who are in “absolutely urgent” condition, the official said. The official was not authorized to be publicly named.
Prime Minister Jean Castex cut short a visit to a suburb north of Paris to head to the Interior Ministry to follow developments.

The trial in the Charlie Hebdo attacks is currently underway across town. Murmurs broke at the terrorism trial of 14 people, including 3 fugitives, accused of helping the attackers in the January 2015 killings, as the news filtered through. The widows of the Charlie Hebdo attackers are scheduled to testify Friday afternoon.

Report: Iran's Guard flew surveillance drone over USS Nimitz

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Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane



22 die in Ukraine military plane crash
yesterday


800.jpeg

In this TV grab released by Ukraine's Emergency Situation Ministry, an AN-26 military plane bursts into flames after it crashed in the town of Chuguyiv close to Kharkiv, Ukraine, late Friday, Sept. 25, 2020. Among 28 people on board 22 people were killed. (Emergency Situation Ministry via AP)

MOSCOW (AP) — A Ukrainian military plane carrying aviation school students crashed and burst into flames Friday while landing, killing 22 people, the country’s emergencies service said.

Two other people on board were seriously injured and four people were missing. The An-26 crashed while landing at the airport in Chuhuiv, about 400 kilometers (250 miles) east of the capital Kyiv.

Reports said that the plane had a military crew and that most of those aboard were students at an aviation university run by the defense ministry.

There were no immediate indications of what caused the crash.
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https://apnews.com/37b489bcf2d64be82ee1cc812de11ee1
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

"We Do Not Consent" - 1000s Rally In London To Oppose Another COVID-19 Lockdown
Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Sat, 09/26/2020 - 10:57
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Six months after parliament passed the Coronavirus Act 2020, which gives the government powers to impose lockdowns and other restrictive social distancing measures (measures that have been accompanied by stiff fines), thousands of Britons packed London's Trafalgar Square bearing signs reading "We Do Not Consent" and "Think Before It's Illegal" during a rally that was billed as a "We Do Not Consent" anti-lockdown demonstration.

The event was organized by a coalition of political groups, and supporters have been galvanized by the talk of another London lockdown by mayor Sadiq Khan, as well as PM Boris Johnson's assurances that a lockdown would be imposed if the government felt all other measures had failed.

Protests are exempt from the rule of six, a rule that threatens fines for groups of more than six people, which has created much aggravation in the UK. Organizers of the rally had to submit a "risk assessment" and agree to comply with social distancing rules. While police told the press that the organizers had completed these requirements, the metropolitan police promised to crack down on those not wearing masks and violating other rules.

They added that enforcement "remains a last resort but will be undertaken if required."
Demonstrators waved signs and British flags and cheered as speakers - including several notable "conspiracy theories", according to the Guardian - addressed the crowd. Crowds chanted “freedom” as people whistled and clapped.

At points, police fulfilled their promise to break up crowds. Before they began, the protests received a warning from the Metropolitan Police, which said it would intervene if the protesters don’t abide by social distancing guidelines.

Toby Young, General Secretary of the Free Speech Union, expressed hope that law enforcement would allow the group to protest "as they did with [Extinction Rebellion] and BLM."

Attending the protest, Kerry Dunn, 41, from Bath, claimed her son, Beau, suffered adverse affects after being vaccinated.
“I’ve been shouting that mandatory vaccines are coming, no one believed me,” she said. “Now we can see it’s just around the corner, we’ve never been closer."
Another event, billed as a “People’s network and family picnic”, is also being organised by the same activists for Sunday in Hyde Park.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Switzerland votes on scrapping EU freedom of movement
The proponents of the referendum have warned that the country is facing "uncontrolled and excessive immigration." If passed, the move could heavily strain Swiss relations with the European Union.



Island Wahl 2016 (picture alliance/AP Photo/F. Augstein)

Swiss voters cast ballots on Sunday to vote on an initiative to limit the free movement of people and immigration from the European Union, a move which could heavily strain relations with the bloc.

The referendum was initiated by the populist Swiss People's Party (SVP), which says that the current regulations allow for an average of 75,000 EU citizens per year to enter, leading to overpopulation, rising housing costs and a strained welfare system.

Read more: Half of Germans abroad in Europe stay in Austria, Switzerland
The SVP, which has built its platform on condemning EU influence within Switzerland, has warned that the country is facing "uncontrolled and excessive immigration."

Roughly 1.4 million EU citizens live in the country of about 8.2 million, while around 500,000 Swiss live in EU countries.

The initiative, voted on as part of the country's system of direct democracy, calls for Switzerland to revise its constitution to ensure it can autonomously decide on immigration policy.

The move, however, has seen declining support in recent polls. The most recent survey showed 65% of those questioned opposed the move to scrap an agreement that permits the free movement of people between Switzerland and EU countries.

Read more:Switzerland votes on third-generation immigrant citizenship
Critics of the initiative argue that the move would exacerbate a shortage of skilled workers and would endanger Switzerland's wealth.

It is unlikely that the measure will create the double majority needed to pass, winning both the popular vote and most of Switzerland's 26 cantons. However, the SVP has seen surprise victories in the past.


Watch video03:13
Fighting over Matterhorn Huts
Strained Swiss-EU relations

A rejection of the plan could also push forward talks between the EU and Switzerland on a framework agreement to regulate this and other bilateral issues.

Conservatives fear that a deal would gradually subject the country to EU legislation.
Switzerland is not a member of the EU but is part of the bloc's Single Market, which allows for the free movement of people between the country and the 27 member states.

Read more:Greens surge in Swiss elections as voters' climate concerns grow
If the initiative passes, authorities would have one year to negotiate an end to the 1999 free movement agreement. The proposal goes even further than a similar SVP-backed measure, passed in 2014, which stipulated quotas on the number of work permits issued to EU citizens.

The vote had been scheduled to take place in May but was postponed since the coronavirus lockdown measures prevented campaigning.

Several other issues are due to be determined in Sunday's vote, including introducing two weeks' paternity leave, the acquisition of fighter jets and easing restrictions on shooting wolves.
Read more:Newly completed Swiss tunnel to transform European rail travel
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
The results of Switzerland's referendum are in.


Swiss voters reject bid to curb EU freedom of movement
A populist party in Switzerland had warned of "uncontrolled and excessive immigration" if EU freedom of movement stayed in place. Almost two-thirds of voters rejected their plan, with Brussels praising the outcome.



A Swiss border sign (Martin Schroeder/dpa/picture-alliance)

Swiss voters on Sunday overwhelmingly rejected a proposal to limit the free movement of people and immigration from the European Union.

Final results showed that 61.7% voted against the motion, versus 38.3% who turned out in support.

Sunday's referendum had been initiated by the populist right-wing Swiss People's Party (SVP), which said that current regulations allow for an average of 75,000 EU citizens per year to enter, leading to overpopulation, rising housing costs and a strained welfare system. The government had opposed the initiative.

Read more: Half of Germans abroad in Europe stay in Austria, Switzerland
The head of the EU's executive branch, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, welcomed the outcome of the vote, calling it "a positive signal to continue to consolidate and deepen our relationship."

The result "upholds one of the core pillars of our relationship: the mutual freedom to move, to live and to work in Switzerland and the EU."

'Excessive immigration'
The SVP, which has built its platform on condemning EU influence within Switzerland, has warned that the country is facing "uncontrolled and excessive immigration."
The party called for the free movement of people between Switzerland and EU countries to be scrapped.

The initiative, voted on as part of the country's system of direct democracy, had called for Switzerland to revise its constitution to ensure it can autonomously decide on immigration policy.

Watch video03:13
Fighting over Matterhorn Huts
The move, dubbed Swexit, saw declining support ahead of the vote. The most recent survey showed 65% of those questioned opposed the move to scrap the agreement.

Read more:Switzerland votes on third-generation immigrant citizenship
Critics of the initiative argued that the move would exacerbate a shortage of skilled workers and would endanger Switzerland's wealth.

Roughly 1.4 million EU citizens live in the country of about 8.2 million, while around 500,000 Swiss live in EU countries.

Strained Swiss-EU relations
The referendum's outcome means the government will likely push forward talks with the EU on a framework agreement to regulate this and other bilateral issues.

Conservatives fear that a deal would gradually subject the country to legislation from Brussels.

Swiss Justice Minister Karin Keller-Sutter said the government would continue to pursue a "bilateral path" with the EU, seeking close economic ties with the bloc without joining it.
"Especially at this time, during the difficult economic situation caused by the corona crisis, good relations with our neighbors and with the EU are important," she said.

Switzerland is not a member of the EU but is part of the bloc's Single Market through several bilateral treaties, which allow for the free movement of people between the country and the 27 member states.

Watch video01:36
Lovers separated through Swiss-German border (09.04.2020)
Read more: Greens surge in Swiss elections as voters' climate concerns grow
A number of other issues were also on the ballot Sunday, including introducing paid paternity leave, easing restrictions on shooting wolves, the acquisition of fighter jets and increasing tax breaks for child care.

More than 60% of voters backed the plan to give new fathers two weeks' paid leave after the birth of their child — a significant change in a country that still lags behind much of Europe when it comes to parental leave. But voters opposed increasing tax breaks for child care.
Some 51.9% of voters rejected measures to allow the hunting of wolves, while 50.1% voted in favor of freeing up funds to purchase new fighter jets.

Turnout in Sunday's referendum was almost 60%, with around 5.3 million people eligible to vote.
 

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Just Plain Jane



Spain’s top court rules to remove Catalan chief from office
By ARITZ PARRAyesterday



1 of 6
Catalonia's outgoing regional president, Quim Torra, waves to the crowd as he leaves the Generalitat Palace in Barcelona, Spain on Monday, Sept. 28, 2020. Spain's Supreme Court has barred Catalonia's regional president from his office for refusing to remove a banner calling for the release of separatist leaders from prison that was displayed on a public building ahead of the 2019 general election (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

MADRID (AP) — Catalonia’s outgoing regional president has called on voters to advance the cause of separatism from Spain after the country’s Supreme Court barred him from office for disobeying the country’s electoral law.

The top court’s ruling earlier on Monday upheld a previous decision to remove Quim Torra as the chief of the northeastern region for refusing to remove a banner that called for the release of imprisoned separatist leaders and was displayed on a public building before the 2019 general election.

The ruling has triggered a new period of political uncertainty in the northeastern region where a demand by some for independence has caused the country’s biggest constitutional crisis in decades.


According to the existing regulations, Torra’s deputy Pere Aragonés should take over as president-in-charge until the regional parliament elects a new leader or a new election is held.
Pro-secession activists reacted by calling for protests later Monday in the regional capital, Barcelona.

“No unjust law applied for the purpose of revenge against those who defend human and universal rights will ever be able to defeat democracy,” Torra said in a televised address surrounded by members of his Cabinet, including Aragonés.

He also called on Catalans to turn the next regional election into a de-facto plebiscite on independence by voting for separatists and vowed to take his appeal against Monday’s ruling to European courts.

“The only way forward is by democratically breaking away,” he said.

Spanish Deputy Prime Minister Carmen Calvo told reporters that the deadlock should be resolved with a new election as soon as possible in order to reactivate dialogue between the regional and central authorities.

“The sooner Catalonia is ready to have the ability to work with the government of Spain, the better for everybody,” Calvo said.

In their ruling, the panel of judges unanimously agreed to uphold last year’s decision by a lower court to ban Torra from holding any public office for 18 months and fine him 30,000 euros ($35,000).

Torra, a staunch separatist, became the head of Catalonia’s government following the 2017 push for the region’s independence that resulted in Spain removing then-regional president Carles Puigdemont, who fled to Belgium and has been fighting off extradition to Spain since then.

“Once more, the Spanish state interferes in our democratic institutions,” Puigdemont wrote in a tweet.

Torra had remained at the helm of Catalonia during the appeal but Monday’s decision must be implemented even if the case is taken to the European Court of Human Rights, as pledged by Torra’s defense team.

The banner at the center of the case referred to a dozen former Catalan Cabinet members, lawmakers and activists who were imprisoned or left Spain following a declaration of independence in October 2017.

The court on Friday said Torra had “stubbornly” disobeyed the country’s electoral board by refusing to take it down from a balcony in the regional government’s headquarters.

In hearings, Torra and his defense lawyers had argued that he was defending the higher cause of political and human rights. But the Supreme Court judges said that the electoral board’s order didn’t violate Torra’s right to free speech, only limited what he could do in his role as an elected official.

Polls and election results show that the 7.5 million residents of Catalonia, a wealthy northeastern region, are roughly equally split on the question of whether it should become independent from Spain.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Armenia accuses Turkey of shooting down warplane
The Armenian defense ministry said an SU-25 warplane was shot down, and its pilot killed, by a Turkish F-16 fighter jet. Turkish officials have denied the accusation, calling it "absolutely untrue."



Aserbaidschan Konflikt um Berg-Karabach (Defence Ministry of Azerbaijan/Reuters)

Armenia's defense ministry accused Turkey on Tuesday of shooting down an Armenian warplane, in the ongoing violent conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Defense ministry spokeswoman Shushan Stapnyan said an SU-25 warplane was downed, and its pilot killed, by a Turkish F-16 fighter jet amid clashes over Azerbaijan's breakaway region of Nagorno Karabakh.



Watch video02:15
Heavy fighting continues in Nagorno-Karabakh
Read more: Armenia, Azerbaijan declare martial law amid heavy clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erodgan's top press aide Fahrettin Altun called the claim "absolutely untrue."

"Armenia should withdraw from the territories under its occupation instead of resorting to cheap propaganda tricks," Altun said.

Azerbaijani defence ministry spokesman Vagif Dyargahly also called the claim "yet another lie of Armenian propaganda."

Read more: Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: Germany's Merkel urges ceasefire as violence escalates
The move would represent a major escalation in the decades-old conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region, that was reignited on Sunday.

Earlier in the day, Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry said Armenian forces shelled the Dashkesan region in Azerbaijan. Armenian officials said Azerbaijani forces opened fire on a military unit in the Armenian town of Vardenis, setting a bus on fire and killing one civilian.

Armenia's Foreign Ministry denied shelling the region, and said the reports would justify Azerbaijan "expanding the geography of hostilities, including the aggression against the Republic of Armenia."

Armine Alexanyan, deputy minister of foreign affairs for the disputed region, said the country is "opting for war."

"The Azerbaijani side has been announcing that if it doesn't reach peace through negotiations, it will opt for war, and that's exactly what it's doing now;" Alexanyan told DW.
"Azerbaijan has been building up its arms for a long time now, spending billions of dollars on buying new high-tech equipment, including these unmanned drones, which now it's testing, hoping to regain what it thinks belongs to it," she said.

Read more: Armenia-Azerbaijan clashes leave several dead in worst hostilities in years
Meanwhile, the Azerbaijani Prosecutor's office said that 12 civilians have been killed and 35 wounded by Armenian fire. The statement marked a sharp rise in reported civilian casualties.

Dozens more have been killed or wounded since clashes broke out. Nagorno-Karabakh lies within Azerbaijan but has been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by the Armenian government since 1994.
lc/aw (AFP, dpa, Reuters, AP)

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