INTL Europe: Politics, Economics, and Military- January 2021

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Here is December's thread:

INTL - Europe: Politics, Economics, and Military- December 2020

Regional Conflict in Mediterranean from page 70 here:


Main Coronavirus thread from page 1327 here:



Brexit: UK and Spain say Gibraltar to join Schengen in last-minute deal
Gibraltar is set to become a part of the Schengen zone to ensure fluidity of movement at the border with Spain after the end of the post-Brexit transition phase.


Watch video00:48
Gibraltar joins Schengen
Spain and the UK have reached a last-minute deal that will allow the British territory of Gibraltar to retain freedom of movement, both countries said on Thursday.

"We are breaking down barriers to build an area of shared prosperity," Foreign Minister Arancha Gonzalez Laya said, announcing the deal just hours before the expiry of transition arrangements.
Britain's post-Brexit transition phase ends on January 1, meaning that both the UK and its overseas territories will exit the European Union's Single Market and Customs Union.

Talks between the governments in London, Madrid and Gibraltar came down to the last hours to secure the deal.

Gonzalez Laya explained that border arrangements for Gibraltar's port and airport would change, with Spain ultimately responsible for controls.

The European Agency of Border and Coast Guard (Frontex) is set to help with these controls over a transition period of four years.

UK Foreign Minister Dominic Raab said Britain remained steadfast in its support of Gibraltar's sovereignty.


Watch video01:39
Gibraltar caught up in rocky UK-EU divorce
"All sides are committed to mitigating the effects of the end of the Transition Period on Gibraltar and in particular ensure border fluidity, which is clearly in the best interests of the people living on both sides," Raab added.
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson echoed Raab's sentiment in a tweet.

UK lawmakers on Wednesday approved a post-Brexit trade deal as the EU-UK transition period comes to an end on January 1.

In the 2016 Brexit referendum, 96% of voters in Gibraltar — home to about 34,000 people — voted to stay in the EU, with the UK-wide result being 52% to 48% in favor of leaving.

The possibility of entering the New Year with tight new restrictions was a daunting one for Gibraltar, which relies on access to EU markets for its tiny economy. More than 15,000 people live in Spain but work across the border in Gibraltar.
rc/aw (AFP, Reuters, dpa, EFE)
 
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Coronavirus alarm in France after 2,500 attend illegal rave
The party was in direct violation of protocols to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Prosecutors have launched an investigation, which could include charges of harming police.



Massive crowd at a warehouse rave in France
Mass gathering and curfew rules were broken during the rave, with few wearing masks
Police were unable to halt an illegal New Year's rave in northwestern France that saw about 2,500 party-goers in close contact, in direct violation of COVID-19 restrictions, local authorities said Friday.

The rave occurred in Lieuron, south of Rennes in Brittany, after clashes with police. Many of the ravers were still on the site on Friday as a sanitary cordon was placed around it.

Local gendarmes said they tried to "prevent this event but faced fierce hostility from many partygoers" who set one of their cars on fire and threw bottles and stones. Some police officers suffered light injuries in the commotion.

One participant, who identified himself as Jo from the Alsace region, told French media service AFP, said the revelers met on Thursday evening in the parking lot of a shopping center before traveling to the warehouse for the rave. He said, "very few had respected social distancing" at the event, which was supposed to end on Saturday.
Ravers take over a warehouse for New Year's
Ravers had met elsewhere before traveling on to the venue

Other participants told AFP there were people from foreign countries, including Spain and the UK, at the party. Prosecutors have launched an investigation into the rave, which could include charges of premeditated violence against people in authority.

Trying to fight the virus
France has implemented tough measures to stem the spread of COVID-19. A nationwide curfew between 8 p.m. and 6 a.m. local time (1900-0500 UTC/GMT), which was not lifted for New Year, as well as a ban on mass gatherings, have been in effect for weeks. No more than six adults could meet indoors for New Year.


Watch video03:05
Berlin's closed clubs push for legal open-air solutions
US-based Johns Hopkins University hospital has said more than 2.6 million people have been infected with COVID-19 in France, leading to nearly 65,000 deaths.

Smaller parties busted up
Other large parties took place across central Europe and were quickly broken up by authorities. Police shut down parties involving some 300 people in Marseille and 100 people in Seine-et-Marne, according to AFP. Three suspected organizers of the Marseille party were arrested.

German police arrested two people early Friday after a rave in a disused bunker in the western city of Cologne. A police spokesman said about 30 people attended the gathering, which took place in a locked facility. They said they found professional sound equipment and drugs at the scene.
kbd/rc (AFP, AP, dpa)
 

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Brexit: The view from the French side of the Channel
For truck drivers, Brexit is causing some annoying new problems. But the chaos that was feared on the day following the UK's final exit from the EU did not transpire, as Bernd Riegert reports from Calais.



Trucks driving onto a ferry in Calais
Truck drivers traveling to and from the UK need to do more paperwork under the EU-UK trade deal

As the first ferry from the United Kingdom docked in the port of Dunkirk in northern France at noon on Wednesday, the French customs officers gathered on a set of steps at the quayside and watched the first trucks rolling off.

Normally, they work in their offices, looking at computer screens and checking freight documents. But Friday was different, or even historic, because the trade deal with the former EU member state had gone into force at midnight Central European Time (2300 GMT Thursday). The previous single market has been replaced by an agreement that in principle allows the duty-free movement of goods between the UK and the EU, but at the price of more checks and paperwork than before.
Trucks queuing to access the port of Dover, England
So far, there have been no truck jams like those in the old year

"By far most truck drivers have the right customs declarations ready," said Filip Hermann, the vice president of DFDS, one of the biggest shipping companies in northern Europe. "And we try to help those without all the papers while they're in Britain, because they aren't allowed to board our ships at all."

But he said that many smaller trucking companies and subcontractors in eastern Europe still had many questions about the new freight documents required after Brexit.

Calm before the storm?
But the whole customs clearance process went very calmly overall. The New Year's Day holiday meant that not much was happening anyway, and the pandemic had greatly reduced the number of passengers. What is more, only about 10% of the 120 trucks coming out of the ferry were being pulled over for additional customs checks. But France might raise this quota at any time.
 Filip Hermann in Dunkirk
Hermann expects things to get busier in Dunkirk

"The real test will come in a few weeks when the amount of goods increases and the trucking companies are working at full capacity," Hermann said. He said that things were fairly quiet now, but that the last weeks before Christmas had been very busy because a lot of warehouses and factories had wanted to stock up before Brexit was finalized.

In nearby Calais, the top customs officer for the Haut-de-France region, Jean-Michel Thillier, was monitoring the smooth progress of the new checks that he had helped prepare for years, as he says. The customs service carried out large-scale practice drills and invested in new data processing methods. Companies can declare their goods and pay customs duties online under a system called "smart border." The drivers receive a barcode that then only has to be read at the border.

The UK and France carry out joint checks of papers, even on each other's territory. "We have worked hard and hired 60 new people to create a new customs administration that is open around the clock. We have installed new computer technology and hope that this system functions automatically to some extent so that clearance times are kept short," said Thillier, dressed in his elegant dress uniform for the on-site visit in Calais.
Jean-Michel Thillier
Thillier spoke of a 'new world' where more formalities are necessary

On the British side, they are taking their time. According to the rules of the new trade deal, the UK customs authority intend to check goods coming from the EU only in the middle of this year.

Thillier declined to comment on whether British preparations are being undertaken in a serious spirit. "It is not my place to judge the decision by the British people, but we have to prepare for this new world. And this new world means that there have to be customs formalities when goods are moved from one side to the other."

Sensitive chains of supply
What is new are the checks on animals, plants and fresh foodstuffs. In the single market, they could be transported without obstacles. Now, they have to undergo controls. In all, 5 million trucks and semitrailers cross the Channel in both directions each year. The UK imports 70% of the fresh foodstuffs being transported.

An interruption of just two or three days in the supply chain could lead to empty shelves in British supermarkets. "The COVID travel ban on trucks before Christmas showed what damage France could unleash if checks really led to delays," DFDS's Hermann pointed out.
Italian truck driver putting his finger to his temple
This Italian driver feels that Brexit is just mad politics

Outside the port in Calais, truck drivers were waiting for customs clearance on a fenced-off car park at the A16 motorway. Many came from Poland, the Baltic countries or Belarus.

Some of them were finding it difficult to comprehend the new regulations. They have to rely on their companies back home to put together the required papers. Depending on how many customers are to receive deliveries from the goods they are carrying, six or more waybills and barcodes are necessary.

"Brexit means lots of paperwork, lots of interruptions. We wait for up to a week," complained Yuri, a truck driver from Belarus. A colleague from Italy agreed with him and tapped the side of his head with his index finger: "Brexit is only about politics. You and I and all our colleagues are only losing time and money here."
Yuri, a truck driver from Belarus, in a mask talking into a DW microphone
Yuri from Belarus is not pleased about the extra work

James, a driver from Scotland, was more relaxed about the situation. He leaned his tattooed arm on the window ledge of his driver's cab and smiled. "Some things will change, but we aren't sad about it. I think you just have to learn to deal with it. This is the way things are; you have to learn to swim with the tide."
This article was adapted from German
 

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Germany: Politicians call for 3-week lockdown extension
Germany's lockdown measures are having little impact as the country records high infection and death rates. Ahead of a summit this week, politicians are only divided on how long the current lockdown should be extended.



A doctor takes care of a Covid-19 patient in the intensive care unit at the University Hospital of Aachen
Germany's lockdown has not stopped coronavirus infection rates and deaths from growing
"The lockdown must be extended until the end of January," Bavarian State Premier Markus Söder told German newspaper Bild on Sunday.

"Premature easing would set us far back again," he added.

His comments came ahead of a meeting between the 16 state premiers and Chancellor Angela Merkel on January 5 to discuss the current lockdown.

Tight restrictions in place across the country are due to end on January 10. But they have had little effect. Last week, Germany reported a record number of daily deaths, over 1,000, as well as ballooning infection rates.

Extension likely, but for how long?
State premiers reportedly agreed that the current lockdown should be extended during a video conference on Saturday, according to Germany's Frankfurter Allgemeine newspaper.
But they were said to be split on the length of the extension.

States hit hardest argued for a three-week extension until January 31, the Frankfurter Allgemeine reported, citing the meeting's participants. These include Saxony, Thuringia, Baden-Württemberg, and Bavaria.

The infection situation gives "no reason to sound the all-clear," Lower Saxony's premier, Stephan Weil, told the national daily Die Welt on Sunday.

Although it was "irritating," the numbers of infections were simply too high to lift restrictions, Bavarian leader Söder added in a tweet.

Söder's fellow conservative Michael Kretschmer, state premier of Saxony, had a similar assessment. He said Germany had succeeded in preventing a rapid increase in new infections in December, but that this should not mean the country being lulled into a false sense of security. He said the experiences of neighboring countries showed premature relaxations would often be followed by a jump in infection rates.

"I advocate being consistent and having nerves of steel," he said, noting that case rates were still high. "An extension of the lockdown in Saxony until at least the end of January is therefore unavoidable."


Watch video03:00
How the pandemic is upending young people's lives
Meanwhile, Thuringian State Premier Bodo Ramelow, from the socialist Left party, said he did not foresee any relaxation of measures, such as allowing face-to-face teaching in schools, before the end of January.

Maximum travel areas?
In fact, Ramelow said he thought a tightening of restrictions might be necessary after a rush of weekend visitors to winter sports destinations in the Thuringian Forest. The state premier suggested that residents should be limited to travel no further than 15 kilometers (about 9 miles) from their homes.

Ramelow said it was a case of "gritting our teeth now in January" to keep the health care system functioning.

The premiers of Bremen, Hamburg and Hesse are in favor of reassessing coronavirus lockdown measures sooner, according to the Frankfurter Allgemeine.

The reopening of schools and pre-schools has become a sticking point among lawmakers.
New research has shown that the virus also spreads in schools — which was not initially thought to be the case.

Current restrictions not working
The current lockdown has seen nonessential shops, beauty salons and cultural and nightlife venues shut; school holidays extended and private meet-ups limited. But this has had little impact on curbing infection rates.

The seven-day incidence, which measures how many people have been infected per 100,000, is 139.6, according to Germany's public health body, the Robert Koch Institute.
This is far above the figure of 50 infections per 100,000 that the government has set for the possible lifting of restrictions.


Watch video02:11
German state leaders urge coronavirus lockdown extension
kmm/nm (AFP, dpa, Reuters)
 

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Open Arms ship with 256 migrants on board anchors off Italy
The sea rescue organization saved hundreds of migrants hailing from Eritrea and Libya from the Mediterranean. Minors will be transferred to a shelter on land, while adults will be quarantined on a ferry.



Migrants look at the coast of Italy on board an Open Arms vessel after being rescued in the Mediterranean Sea
Dozens of people on board had been adrift for days without food and water before being rescued

A ship with around 265 rescued migrants on board was allowed to anchor off the coast of Italy on Monday.

The Spanish-flagged vessel, belonging to the sea rescue organization Open Arms, brought in migrants from separate rescue operations off Sicily.

Officials from Porto Empedocle said the transfer of around 50 minors to a shelter on land was being delayed due to rough seas. The children were granted permission to go on land after testing negative for COVID-19.

The remaining adults were expected to be transferred to a ferry where they will complete two weeks of quarantine.


Watch video02:24
NGOs sound alarm about migrants dying at sea
Rescued after two days at sea

Open Arms said 96 of those rescued had been in international waters for two days in wooden boats without life vests or food and water, with some suffering from hypothermia. Most of those rescued were from Eritrea, including two women and 17 minors.

In a separate operation, Open Arms had rescued around 169 migrants of the coast of Libya, where many human traffickers are based.


Italy is trying to get other European Union nations to accept more of the migrants arriving at its coasts, as many of them are eventually trying to reach northern European nations. Many of the hundreds of thousand of people who have been rescued at sea in recent years are fleeing persecution as well as poverty in their home countries.
tg/rs (dpa, AP)
 

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Germany, EU move toward cashless payment during pandemic
Fewer people are paying with cash in Germany and the European Union — a trend that the coronavirus pandemic has accelerated. But there are risks involved with "fast" and "hygienic" contactless payment.



A bank card and a receipt
Bank cards and pay apps have replaced cold hard cash across Germany and the EU

Germany's top-selling bakery chain, Kamps, made headlines nationwide in June, when it offered a 3% "innovation discount" for customers willing to pay by card. Payment via card or smartphone is faster and more hygienic, according to Kamps.

Even before the coronavirus pandemic, companies were encouraging their customers to pay without using cash. In 2018, people in Germany spent more money using cards as payment than cash for the first time. In 2020, stores made about 56% of sales via contactless payments. In EU countries such as Luxembourg, France and Estonia, people go contactless even more frequently. Across Scandinavia, many hotels, bars and stores even refuse to accept coins and bills. In Sweden, 82% of people now make their purchases without cash.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has declared digitization and cashless payment a top priority — up there with climate protection. Electronic payment is widely promoted as a safe and fast "hygiene measure" across the EuropeanUnion, though there is no evidence that coins and banknotes pose a significant risk of transmitting the coronavirus.

"Many people have become accustomed to the advantages," said Oliver Hommel, a payments and open banking expert at Accenture, one of the world's largest management consultancies. "Businesses' aversion to card payments had already declined significantly before the coronavirus crisis," he added.

What about data?
A 2015 EU regulation required credit card companies to lower the fees that they receive from businesses. As a result, businesses are less likely to require a minimum purchase for card transactions.

What has become an advantage for customers might still be a problem for small shops, however, as card terminal operators frequently charge businesses a 0.25% transaction fee on debit cards and up to 3% on credit cards. Larger discount stores often negotiate more favorable terms or get a flat rate from their payment service providers.

Concerns about data protectionhave arisen — especially when customers pay via smartphones or need to enter a personal identification number to complete the transaction. This applies in particular to near-field communication, a technology that so far is used primarily for contactless payments of small amounts. Many devices for card or payments use NFC readers.

NFC payment is particularly popular in the Netherlands, where it has been used more frequently than cash and cards since 2019. It's a problematic development, however, because "mobile devices are not completely protected against hacker attacks," Hommel said, adding that such devices also allow companies to track where consumers shop. The payment apps collect location data for security purposes. In the United States, Hommel said, "Google already has access to a lot of credit card data and can use it to control and evaluate advertising for stationary retailers in a more targeted way and sell it more expensively."


Watch video01:04
Security for e-wallets: A comparison
This article has been adapted from German by Dagmar Breitenbach.
 

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Germany reviews parliament security after US Capitol riot
Germany is to look at beefing up security at its own national parliament after the storming of the US Congress by violent protesters.



Protesters and police outside the Reichstag
The Reichstag has provided a focus for many of the protests against coronavirus restrictions

The president of Germany's lower legislative house, Wolfgang Schäuble, on Thursday said officials would examine improvements that could be made to parliamentary security in Germany after the storming of the US Capitol building.

Schäuble's office said he would examine "what conclusions should be drawn from this for the protection of the Bundestag," as the lower house is called, in light of the scenes from Washington.

The German government has requested its embassy in Washington provide a report on how the "violent excesses could have happened in the Capitol."
It is expected that the review will involve consultation with the security representatives of the various political parties in parliament, as well as the state of Berlin and the German Interior Ministry.

Chancellor Angela Merkel said the scenes from Washington DC had made her "angry and sad," and that President Donald Trump shared some of the blame for not conceding defeat in last year's presidential elections.

However, the revision of security at the Bundestag is not only prompted by the events in Washington. It also comes after demonstrators against coronavirus restrictions tried to storm Germany's parliament building, the Reichstag, in August. Protesters also breached the building in November, prompting questions about security there.

Cause for reflection at home
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas drew a comparison with the scenes on Wednesday in Washington and the attempts by anti-lockdown demonstrators to enter parliament in Berlin. He also cited deadly far-right terror attacks in the German cities of Halle and Hanau as reasons it would be self-righteous to point the finger at the US without reflecting on matters closer to home.


Watch video00:54
'I was very, very shocked' – Berliners react to storming of US Capitol
"Even here, in Hanau, Halle, on the steps of the Reichstag, we have had to experience how agitation and inflammatory words turn into hateful deeds," Maas said.

Maas had also mentioned events at the Reichstag in his initial response to Wednesday night's violence in a tweet that drew a comparison between the two. He said: "Seditious words turn to violent actions — on the steps of the Reichstag, and now in the #Capitol."

Lawmakers from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, some of whom had marched in increasingly aggressive virus-skeptic demonstrations, have been accused of inviting protesters into the German parliament building who went on to harass other lawmakers.

The AfD on Thursday released a statement denying any links to the protests in front of the Reichstag building last year, and accusing others of seeking to use the latest events in the US to score political points.

"Anyone who equates the unrest in Washington with the demonstrations that took place before the Reichstag building in Berlin, and who points to our party's sympathy for these events, is abusing the anarchist events for political purposes in Germany," party leaders said in a statement.
rc/nm (AFP, epd)
 

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Russia Unironically Chastises US As "Not Up To Modern Democratic Standards"
Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, JAN 07, 2021 - 23:05
Russia has joined the ranks of foreign governments expressing official "concern" for the stability of the US political system after Wednesday's Capitol chaos.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters Thursday that the whole episode and surreal images coming out of DC lays bare fault lines in American democracy, according to Russian media.

Akin to Chinese state media, now busy having a field day over calling out Washington's hypocrisy and 'double standards', Zakharova mocked the "archaic" American electoral system and underscored the fragility of the United States.

"The electoral system in the US is archaic and does not meet modern democratic standards, creating opportunities for numerous violations, and American media has become an instrument of political struggle,” she said. Zakharova expressed Russia's desire that "the friendly American people will experience this dramatic moment in their own history with dignity."

Putin has not personally weighed in, but senior Russian lawmaker Konstantin Kosachyov along with some others have made bold statements. Kosechyov, who is chair of the Russian upper house's foreign affairs committee, posted a statement on Facebook saying:
"The losing side has more than enough grounds to accuse the winner of falsifications - it is clear that American democracy is limping on both feet."
He added: "I say this without a shadow of gloating. America no longer charts a course and therefore has lost all rights to set it - and even more so to impose it on others."
Getty Images
Meanwhile, all the predictable hot takes on how this was somehow 3-dimensional chess master Putin's game plan all along are rolling in....


Indeed for Pelosi all roads are perpetually leading to Putin, apparently.
 

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Germany: Authorities suspect far-left arson attack on asylum center
Lower Saxony's Interior Ministry said a letter had been posted on the internet claiming responsibility for the attack in the city of Braunschweig.



The state's criminal police office will take over the investigation
The state's criminal police office will take over the investigation

Authorities in Germany's northern state of Lower Saxony said Saturday police detectives were probing a blaze that destroyed 10 vans and a trailer in the city of Braunschweig.
They suspected left-wing extremists were behind the fire on the premises of LAB, the state authority that organizes the reception and accommodation of asylum seekers in Lower Saxony. The office also supports the municipal immigration authorities with repatriations.
On Friday night, 50 fire brigade personnel were deployed to extinguish the burning vehicles on the LAB grounds, spanning 6.4 hectares (15 acres). No one was hurt in the fire.

Lower Saxony's interior ministry priced the vehicle loss at half-a-million euros ($612,000).
Incendiary devices were also found in a building belonging to the same authority in the district of Langenhagen near the airport in the state capital Hanover, but they did not ignite.

"Nobody in Germany has the right to ruthlessly and with sheer force implement their own political goals," said Boris Pistorius, Lower Saxony's interior minister.

The state's far-left scene was experiencing a "strong radicalization," and was developing into a "terrorist structure," he added.
ipj/shs (Dpa, Reuters, AFP, AP)
 

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Germany uses 'embassy hearings' to speed up deportations
More than 250,000 people live in Germany without a legal status, largely because their nationality can't be determined. The German government is paying foreign embassies to question them for potential deportation.



German identification hearing
Asylum seekers must attend hearings to prove their identity and nationality

Amadou was seized with fear when he returned to his room in November. Waiting for him at the temporary facility for displaced people was a summons that told him he was required to appear before a commission from his homeland, Guinea, within days.

Amadou told DW that he knew what this meant. "Because I didn't have papers, the immigration authorities wanted to send me there so they could get papers and deport me," said Amadou, who asked that his real name not be used. "But why? I haven't done anything bad."

Amadou's asylum application had been rejected. He was too frightened to attend his appointment with the commission. "I thought that then I would have to go away, leave my room, my friends — that there would be nothing left for me: only jail in Germany, jail in Conakry, then death," he said, his voice breaking.

Such appointments, described as "embassy hearings," are taking place all over Germany. The delegations from asylum applicants' presumed countries of origin receive funding from Germany's federal government, with people from African countries are most frequently affected. In 2019 and 2020, more than 1,100 people from Nigeria and almost 370 people from Ghana were called in, followed by citizens of Gambia (146) and Guinea (126). Many more were summoned for interviews, as Germany's government revealed following a formal information request from Ulla Jelpke, member of the Bundestag for the socialist Left party.
Plane flying above barbed wire
Germany is seeking to accelerate deportations

According to the government. these hearings are both legal and necessary. "Hearings are an essential means for determining the nationality of persons obliged to leave the country," a spokesperson for the Interior Ministry wrote in response to an inquiry from DW. "Travel documents can only be issued once their nationality has been established. Hearings like these have been conducted on a legal basis in Germany for years, and their usefulness is proven." She added that other EU countries use similar procedures.

Hearings 'nontransparent'
The German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) estimates that in 2020 there were about 250,000 people living in Germany without legal residency status. When he took office as Interior Minister in 2018, Horst Seehofer promised to reduce this figure, and according to the DGAP about 22,000 people were deported in 2019.

German officials say people's countries of origin share responsibility for ensuring that they are returned if not permitted to remain, and authorities have accused the embassies of African nations of being slow to issue the necessary documents that would permit deportations. The subject comes up whenever Chancellor Angela Merkel visits Africa, and some diplomats from African countries have privately said that Germany's government of exerts excessive pressure on them to comply.

Members of German opposition parties also criticize the practice. "Every one of these ominous summonses is one too many," the Left party's Jelpke told DW. "The proceedings are nontransparent, and those affected have repeatedly reported infringements of their rights." Moreover, she said, the criteria used to determine countries of origin are entirely unclear. Jelpke says that Sierra Leoneans have been deported to Nigeria.

Interior Ministry officials reject such criticism. "People are only positively identified if those conducting the hearing are convinced that they are indeed citizens of their country," according to the spokesperson. "People under obligation to leave the country are also free to bring in a legal adviser."
Ghanaian embassy in Berlin
Officials from African embassies, such as this Ghanaian one in Berlin, are engaged to establish the identities of asylum seekers

Guinea: Imprisonment, torture
In 2018, Germany's government signed an agreement with Amadou's homeland, Guinea, to speed up deportations. By October 2020, 40 people had been sent back under the agreement. The West African country has been troubled by unrest for some time, since the president, Alpha Conde, decided to continue in office for a third term following a change to the constitution in March.

"Again and again, in the past months and years, civilians have been killed, injured, or arbitrarily imprisoned by the Guinean security forces," Jelpke said. "Deportations to that country constitute a serious threat to the life and physical integrity of the deportee."

Amadou said the son of an influential commander in Guinea's security forces had abused him for years, but when he reported it to the police, he was jailed. He said he has been tortured on numerous occasions and almost killed after leaving prison. That is another reason why he can't imagine appearing before a commission from his home country. "I don't trust them," he said. "I'm afraid of them. They're working with the government."
This article has been adapted from German.
 

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Angela Merkel calls Trump Twitter ban 'problematic'
The German chancellor said although Twitter was right to add warnings to Trump's posts, the move to permanently suspend his account raises concerns about free speech.



German Chancellor Angela Merkel
'The right to freedom of opinion is of fundamental importance,' Merkel's spokesman said
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is concerned about Twitter permanently suspending President Donald Trump's account, her spokesman said on Monday.

Steffen Seibert told reporters in Berlin the chancellor considered the ban "problematic."
"The right to freedom of opinion is of fundamental importance," Merkel's spokesman said.
"Given that, the chancellor considers it problematic that the president's accounts have been permanently suspended."



Watch video00:31
German government: Trump's Twitter ban 'problematic'
The chancellor agreed with the practice of flagging Trump's inaccurate posts, Seibert said. However, any curbs on free expression should be decided by the law and not by private companies.

Social media giants Twitter and Facebook moved to permanently suspend Trump's accounts following the deadly riots at the US Capitol last Wednesday. Five people were killed in the hours-long unrest.

Twitter justified the decision by saying Trump's tweets could prompt more violence.

Concerns over the implications
Although opinion polls in Germany have shown broad support among the public in Germany over the move to suspend Trump, several politicians and officials in Europe remain unconvinced.

"[The Twitter ban] is problematic because we have to ask on which basis (was it made), on which laws and what does it mean for the future actions of social media platforms?" Jens Zimmermann, a Social Democrat member of parliament told DW.

"We are talking about the head of state of a democratic country. Obviously Donald Trump wasn't very popular in Germany. But nevertheless, this could happen to somebody else who won an election."


Watch video01:40
Twitter permanently suspends Trump account
Zimmermann, who is a member of the German Parliament's Committee on the Digital Agenda, maintained that it was a problem when one person, the CEO of a company, stops a state leader reaching out to millions of people.

"We need to to come up with regulation. And we need to be careful about what power these platforms have. I think it's no surprise that Twitter came up with that solution, with 12 days to go until Donald Trump leaves office. And the same applies to Facebook," he said.

Germany and other European countries have grown increasingly concerned about the power of social media companies to shape public discourse.
rs/rt (dpa, Reuters)

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JANUARY 13, 20214:20 AMUPDATED 16 MINUTES AGO
Facebook can face broader watchdog action: EU court adviser
By Reuters Staff
1 MIN READ

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The data protection agency in any EU country should be able to bring legal action even if they are not the lead authority, a senior adviser to the EU’s top court recommended on Wednesday in a case involving Facebook.

The case before the EU court came after Belgium’s privacy regulator sought to stop Facebook gathering information on Belgian users’ browsing behaviour through cookies to show them targeted advertising without their valid consent.

Facebook challenged this on the basis that the Irish privacy watchdog is the lead authority for Facebook in the European Union as the company’s European head office is in Ireland.

Reporting by Philip Blenkinsop
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
 

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Ex-premi


Click to copy
Ex-premier yanks ministers from Italy’s coalition government
By FRANCES D'EMILIOyesterday



1 of 7
Italian Senator, former premier and head of the political party 'Italia Viva' (IV), Matteo Renzi holds a press conference at the Italian Chamber of Deputies in Rome, Wednesday, Jan. 13, 2021. The Italian cabinet was in crisis on January 13, 2021 following the resignations of ministers Teresa Bellanova and Elena Bonetti, members of former premier Matteo Renzi's Italia Viva party. (Alberto Pizzoli/pool via AP)

ROME (AP) — A former leader of Italy yanked his party’s ministers Wednesday from Premier Giuseppe Conte’s government, triggering a political crisis in the middle of a pandemic that could lead to a revamped Cabinet, a different coalition leader or the early election eagerly sought by right-wing opposition parties.

Matteo Renzi, who served as premier from Feb. 2014 to Dec. 2016 and leads the small centrist Italy Alive party, had been chafing for weeks at what he saw as Conte’s heavy hand in deciding how some 200 billion euros ($243 billion) in European Union funding would be used to help pull Italy out of years of economic stagnation worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Renzi, while announcing that the farm and family ministers and Cabinet undersecretary were bolting from the 16-month-old center-left government, said he had enough of Conte’s frequent governing through decrees instead of turning to Parliament.

“Italy Alive didn’t provoke the political crisis,” Renzi told reporters, putting the blame for the coalition government’s unraveling on Conte’s methods.

“We won’t allow anyone to have full powers,” said Renzi, who governed as the head of his former party, the Democrats.

It was unclear if Conte, a lawyer who specializes in mediation, would try to negotiate with Renzi or tender his resignation to President Sergio Mattarella. For weeks, the president has exhorted the government to focus on dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, which has exacerbated the problems of Italy’s flat economy.

Renzi’s two ministers in the government abstained from a Cabinet vote late Tuesday to approve a draft plan for using the EU funds. Before Renzi’s announcement, Conte had expressed the desire to sit down with his coalition partners to work out a solution.

“A (government) crisis wouldn’t be understood by the country,” Conte told reporters.
Nicola Zingaretti, the leader of the Democrats, who are a key partner in Conte’s coalition, noted that Italy on Wednesday registered more than 500 additional COVID-19 deaths, pushing the country’s known death toll in the pandemic past 80,000. Renzi’s political move “goes against the country,” he said.

If Conte or someone appointed by Italy’s president to replace him can’t muster enough support in Parliament, Mattarella could dissolve Parliament, paving the way for an early election. Opinion surveys indicate that an election could bring to power an alliance of right-wing and far-right nationalist forces.


“Resign, Conte. Elections immediately,” read a Facebook post by Giorgia Meloni, the head of the nationalist Brothers of Italy, which has its roots in a neo-fascist party and is rapidly growing in popularity.

Opinion polls have consistently shown that any quick return to the ballot box would reward the far-right Brothers of Italy and the right-wing League party led by Matteo Salvini, a former interior minister who promoted policies to stem illegal immigration to Italy.

“The right (wing) of Salvini and Meloni are uncorking the Champagne,″ tweeted a prominent Democratic Party lawmaker, Michele Bordo.

The largest party in Parliament that belongs to Conte’s coalition is the populist 5-Star Movement. Before the current coalition government, Conte led a different, uneasy one forged out of Salvini’s euroskeptic League and the rival 5-Stars. Conte’s first government collapsed when Salvini exited the coalition in a failed maneuver to gain the premiership for himself.

Mattarella could also ask a non-political figure to try to form a government. Political commentators have mentioned two names: Mario Draghi, the former European Central Bank chief, and Marta Cartabia, who formerly headed Italy’s constitutional court.

During his 75-minute-long news conference, Renzi blasted what he described as a weak defense of democratic institutions by Conte when compared to the condemnations issued by the leaders of Germany, Britain and France after a violent mob stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6.

Renzi became Italian premier in 2014 after he maneuvered the governing Democratic Party to oust Enrico Letta. In 2016, Renzi gambled and lost when he staked his premiership on a constitutional referendum that failed, forcing him to resign.

He later formed Italy Alive, which, has enough support in the Senate to make his party count in Conte’s government.
___
Nicole Winfield in Rome contributed to this report.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane



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Spain rejects virus confinement as most of Europe stays home
By ARITZ PARRAtoday



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FILE - In this Jan. 4, 2021, file photo, people wearing face masks walk along the stalls of a weekly market in the Spanish city of La Linea. While most of Europe kicked off 2021 with earlier curfews or stay-at-home orders, authorities in Spain insist the new coronavirus variant wreaking havoc elsewhere is not to blame for a sharp resurgence of cases and that the country can avoid a full lockdown even as its hospitals fill up. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti, File)

MADRID (AP) — While most of Europe kicked off 2021 with earlier curfews or stay-at-home orders, authorities in Spain insist the new coronavirus variant causing havoc elsewhere is not to blame for a sharp resurgence of cases and that the country can avoid a full lockdown even as its hospitals fill up.

The government has been tirelessly fending off drastic home confinement like the one that paralyzed the economy for nearly three months in the spring of 2020, the last time Spain could claim victory over the stubborn rising curve of cases.

Infection rates ebbed in October but never completely flattened the surge from summer. Cases started climbing again before the end of the year. In the past month, 14-day rates more than doubled, from 188 cases per 100,000 residents on Dec. 10 to 522 per 100,000 on Thursday.

Nearly 39,000 new cases were reported Wednesday and over 35,000 on Thursday, some of the highest daily increases to date.

The surge is again threatening intensive care unit capacity and burdening exhausted medical workers. Some facilities have already suspended elective surgery, and the eastern city of Valencia has reopened a makeshift hospital used last year.

Unlike Portugal, which is going on a month-long lockdown Friday and doubling fines for those who don’t wear masks, officials in Spain insist it will be enough to take short, highly localized measures that restrict social gatherings without affecting the whole economy.

“We know what we have to do and we are doing it,” Health Minster Salvador Illa told a news conference Wednesday, ruling out a national home confinement order and advocating for “measures that were a success during the second wave.”

Fernando Simón, the government’s top virus expert, has blamed the recent increase in cases on Christmas and New Year’s celebrations. “The new variant, even if it has an impact, it will be a marginal one, at least in our country,” he said this week.

But many independent experts disagree and say Spain has no capacity to conduct the widespread sequencing of samples to detect how the new variants have spread, and that 88 confirmed and nearly 200 suspected cases that officials say have largely been imported from the U.K. are underestimating the real impact.


Dr. Rafael Bengoa, former director of Healthcare Systems at the World Health Organization, told The Associated Press the government should immediately enact “a strict but short” four-week confinement.

“Trying to do as little as possible so as not to affect the economy or for political reasons doesn’t get us where we need to be,” said Bengoa, who also oversaw a deep reform in the Basque regional health system.

The situation in Spain contrasts starkly with other European countries that have also shown similar sharp leaps in cases, increasingly more of them blamed on the more contagious variant first detected in the U.K.

The Netherlands, which has been locked down for a month, has seen the pace of infections starting to drop. But with 2% to 5% of new COVID-19 cases from the new variant, the country is from Friday requiring air passengers from the U.K., Ireland and South Africa to provide not only a negative PCR test taken a maximum of 72 hours before departure but also a rapid antigen test result from immediately before takeoff.

France, where a recent study of 100,000 positive tests yielded about 1% of infections with the variant, is imposing curfews as early as 6 p.m., and Health Minister Oliver Veran has not ruled out a stay-at-home order if the situation worsens.

Existing lockdowns or the prospect of mandatory confinement have not been questioned or turned into a political issue in other European countries.

Ireland instituted a complete lockdown after widespread infections were found to be tied to the new variant. Italy has a color-coded system that activates a strict lockdown at its highest — or red — level, although no areas are currently at that stage.

In the U.K., scientific evidence of the new variant has silenced some critics of restrictions and spurred Prime Minister Boris Johnson to impose measures that are strict but slightly milder than the nation’s first lockdown. People have been ordered to stay home except for limited essential trips and exercise, and schools have been closed except for some exceptions.

In Germany, where the 7-day rolling average of daily new cases has recently shot up to 26 per 100,000 people, many high-ranking officials are arguing that the existing strict confinement order needs to be toughened and extended beyond its current end-of-January expiration.

Nordic countries have rejected full-on mandatory lockdowns, instead instituting tight limitations on gatherings and certain activities. Residents have been asked to follow specific recommendations to limit the spread of the virus.

In Sweden, the issue is both legal and political, as no law exists that would allow the government to restrict the population’s mobility. While urging residents to refrain from going to the gym or the library, Swedish Prime Stefan Lofven said last month, “we don’t believe in a total lockdown,” before adding, “We are following our strategy.”

Policymakers in Spain seem to be on a similar approach, although it remains to be seen if the results will prove them wrong. On Thursday, they insisted that vaccinations will soon reach “cruising speed.”

But Bengoa, the former WHO expert, said vaccinations won’t fix the problem immediately.
“Trying to live with the virus and with these data for months is to live with very high mortality and with the possibility that new variants are created,” he said, adding that the new variant of the virus widely identified in the U.K. could make the original version start to seem like “a good one.”

Dr. Salvador Macip, a researcher with the University of Leicester and the Open University of Catalonia, says the combination of spiraling infections and the uncertainty over the new variants should be enough for a more restrictive approach, but that pandemic fatigue is making such decisions more difficult for countries like Spain, with polarized politics.

“People are fed up with making sacrifices that take us nowhere because they see that they will have to repeat them,” Macip said.
—-
Associated Press writers across Europe contributed.
—-
Follow AP coverage of the coronavirus pandemic at:
Coronavirus pandemic
Coronavirus vaccine
Understanding the Outbreak
Biden unveils $1.9T plan to stem COVID‑19 andsteady economy

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Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
Hmm... Potentially the second European government to fall this week.


Dutch PM Rutte Resigns Over Childcare Subsidy Debacle
Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, JAN 15, 2021 - 7:41
With Italian politics once again in shambles (heading for its 132nd government in 160 years), Europe is now facing yet another debacle as Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has resigned two months before the country's election.
This has pressured the euro lower this morning.

NOS reports that Rutter will offer his resignation to King Willem-Alexander later on Friday, marking the first government collapse since 2012, when Rutte’s first administration fell apart over disagreements on austerity measures.


As Reuters reports, Rutte and his ministers resignation is over the government’s mismanagement of childcare subsidies, which a parliamentary inquiry found last month had driven thousands of families to financial ruin.
The inquiry report said around 10,000 families had been forced to repay tens of thousands of euros of subsidies after being wrongfully accused of fraud, leading to unemployment, bankruptcy or divorce.
It described such mismanagement over a decade as an “unprecedented injustice”.
Pressure for the government to resign mounted this week as Rutte’s coalition partners said the option needed to be seriously considered and the leader of the opposition Labour party stepped down on Thursday over his role in the affair.
The crisis comes just two months before a parliamentary election on March 17 and as the Netherlands is in the middle of the toughest lockdown of the coronavirus pandemic. Rutte is considering even more curbs as infections surge.

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Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Italy tries 350 suspected mafia members in historic trial
Italian authorities started the trial of 350 alleged members of the 'ndrangheta group. Defendants include politicians, lawyers and entrepreneurs.



A police officer wearing a mask stands in the foreground of a big hall where the trial is set to take place.
The trial is taking place in a bunker made to accommodate for the major case

Italy began the trial of 350 suspected members and aides of the organized crime group 'ndrangheta, including politicians, lawyers and businessmen, in the southern region of Calabria on Wednesday.

The trial is the biggest to prosecute organized crime in the past three decades.
The defendants are charged with various crimes dating back to the 1990s, including drug trafficking, murder, illegal possession of weapons and money laundering.

Prosecutors expect to hear testimony from over 900 witnesses, many of whom would be breaking the mafia's code of silence. Some 90 suspects are set to have a summary trial on January 27.



Watch video03:25
Hundreds of suspected Mafia members go on trial in Italy
The trial is taking place in the city of Lamezia Terme in a building made to accommodate the large size of the case.

In 2018, a wave of arrests in Italy paved the way to the trial, as the country aims to crack down on organized crime.

Authorities also arrested suspected aides and members of the group in Bulgaria, Germany and Switzerland.

The trial addresses one family, the Mancuso group, and its network in Calabria.

'Maxi-trials'
Chief Prosecutor Nicola Gratteri said the case requires a "maxi-trial," citing the power structure in the organization of power-wielding families.

'Maxi-trials" are major legal cases where defendants are tried at once on many charges.
"I have to start with the idea that there's an organization, as in a business, as in a large multinational, with a boss and then down, like a pyramid, to all the other members," Gratteri said.

Italy estimates around 150 families are involved in the 'ndrangheta group in Calabria, with more than 6,000 affiliates around the country and thousands more worldwide.

The group has taken in more than €50 billion ($61 billion) annually, Gratteri said, describing the 'ndrangheta as the richest organized crime group in the world.

In 1986, prosecutors hit the Sicilian Cosa Nostra mafia group with 338 guilty charges in Italy's most famous maxi trial.

The mob assassinated two prosecutors, Giovanni Falcone and Paolo Borsellino, after the trial.

Power in public life
According to experts, the 'ndrangheta is involved in all areas of public service in parts of Calabria, including hospitals, city hall and courts.

Graterri said the group gained more political and economic power, investing its gains in the legitimate economy.

Criminologist Federico Varese described the organization as "the authority."

"The real strength of these mafia families is they have control of the territory, and within the territory, they do everything," said Varese. "If you want to open a shop, if you want to build anything, you have to go through them."

The 'ndrangheta is based in the south Italian region of Calabria, although the organization has expanded its power far beyond Italian borders, reaching Australia, Europe and North America.

The 'ndrangheta is also considered a leading smuggler of cocaine in Europe.
fb (AFP/DPA)
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Around One-Third of Belgian Residents Are Now Foreign Nationals, or Have Migrant Backgrounds

This picture taken on March 4, 2020 shows a banner during a demonstration to demand the opening of Europe's borders in front of the European Council in Brussels. (Photo by Kenzo TRIBOUILLARD / AFP) (Photo by KENZO TRIBOUILLARD/AFP via Getty Images)

KENZO TRIBOUILLARD/AFP via Getty Images
CHRIS TOMLINSON
Breitbart
15 Jan 2021222

Around one-third of Belgium’s resident population are either foreign nationals or from migration backgrounds, according to the country’s statistical agency Statbel.

According to the figures to January 1st, 2020, just over two-thirds of Belgium’s population, or 67.9 per cent, are native Belgians, according to the Statsbel figures, representing 7,806,078 people.

Almost one-in-five, 19.7 per cent, of the population are Belgians of migrant background, which is classified as those with one or two relatives who are either foreign nationals or are foreign nationals who have received Belgian citizenship. More than one-in-ten, 12.4 per cent, are foreign nationals, broadcaster RTL reported this week.

The figures revealed a large change from 2010 when the native Belgian population was 74.3 per cent and the foreign and migrant-background population just over a quarter.

The Belgian capital-region of Brussels has the largest share of residents of foreign nationality with 35.3 per cent, compared to Flanders, which has a foreign population of 9.3 per cent.

The figures also reveal that the younger demographics have larger shares of foreign nationals and migrant-background residents. Native Belgians account for just 54.3 per cent of those under 17-years-old, while they account for 87.3 per cent of those above the age of 65.

According to the statistics, the most common foreign nationality in Belgian is Moroccans, followed by Italians, French, Dutch, and Turks.

The statistics are similar to other western European countries that have also seen radical demographic shifts in recent decades.

In Germany, a quarter of the population come from migrant backgrounds, according to a report released in July. While in Western Germany, nearly half of the children under six years old are from migrant backgrounds.

Belgium’s other neighbour, France, has also released data showing the demographic shift in areas of the country. Data released last year by France Stratégie, a group affiliated with the French Prime Minister’s Office, showed huge growth of migrant-background children in various urban areas.

For example, Greater Paris saw its share of migrant children rise from 6.5 per cent in 1968 to 36.6 per cent in 2015. In the Paris suburb of Clichy-sous-Bois, 83 per cent of the children came from non-European backgrounds in 2015.

One Third of Belgians Now From Migrant-Backgrounds (breitbart.com)
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Belarus Warning Update: Belarus Confirms Plans to Purchase Advanced Air Defense Systems from Russia

January 14, 2021 2:30 EDT
ISW Research
By George Barros

The Kremlin will likely employ Russian S-400 advanced air defense systems in Belarus as ISW forecasted. The commander of Belarus’ Air Force and Air Defense Forces announced on January 14, 2020, that the Belarusian Defense Ministry (MoD) is conducting pre-contract work to equip Belarus’ anti-aircraft missile divisions that currently operate the S-300 system with S-400 and Pantsir-S systems.[1] ISW first warned of this threat in August 2020, after the MoD reportedly signed a contract for cooperation on air defense systems with the holding company for the manufacturers of the Russian S-300, S-400, and S-500 air defense systems.[2]

Belarus’ acquisition of S-400 systems poses a significant threat to US national security. The Kremlin likely seeks to integrate Belarus’ currently independent air defense systems into Russia’s own national air defense system, which would give Moscow control over their employment.[3] The Kremlin likely seeks to deploy new and control existing anti-access/area denial weapon systems in Belarus to contest NATO and Eastern European airspace more than it already does with systems deployed in Kaliningrad.[4] Such integration would degrade NATO’s ability to defend the Baltics—a risk ISW forecasted in September 2020.[5]

The Kremlin will likely use the upcoming Zapad 2021 exercise in September 2021 to further consolidate Russian control over Belarus’ anti-access/area denial systems. Russia’s next annual capstone strategic readiness exercise—Zapad 2021—will likely emphasize Russian-Belarusian air defense integration. Belarusian air and air defense forces conducted joint training emphasizing using “new and modernized weapons” to defend against precision weapons and unmanned aerial vehicles on January 14.[6] The MoD explicitly said the experience gained from this January 14 training will be used in joint exercises with Russian units during Zapad 2021.[7] Russia’s Western Military District (WMD) will likely conduct Zapad 2021 in western Russia and Belarus.[8] ISW warned in December 2020 that the Kremlin would likely use the Zapad 2021 exercise to further integrate Russian and Belarusian military units at deep levels.[9]

The Kremlin may field S-400 systems in Belarus before September 2021. The MoD’s confirmation of “new and modernized” air defense systems’ role in Zapad 2021 coincided with its confirmation of plans to purchase Russian S-400 systems. This coincidence may indicate that Moscow seeks to equip Belarusian air defense units with S-400 systems before September 2021 so Belarusian and Russian air defense units—both equipped with S-400 systems—can participate in an integrated fashion during Zapad 2021.

Russian security personnel in unmarked uniforms are reportedly operating in Belarus. A Belarussian protester claimed unmarked Russian personnel detained and beat him in Minsk on December 20, 2020.[10] The protester claimed that during his detention an unmarked Russian security agent said, “I came here from Moscow to help,” and, “Pray that Belarusian riot police detain you, and not us. Because we will simply kill you.”[11]

This testimony follows a series of indicators of Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) preparations to operate in Belarus. Unmarked Rosgvardia trucks reportedly were spotted in Smolensk heading toward the Belarusian Border on August 16, 2020.[12] Security personnel wearing unmarked uniforms appeared in Minsk for the first time on September 5, 2020.[13] Elements of two Rosgvardia units deployed to Minsk on September 28–October 3, 2020, for a small arms military sports tournament that was effectively a series of tactical exercises with Belarusian special forces.[14] Rosgvardia and the Belarusian Interior Ministry ratified a cooperation agreement on November 19, 2020, permitting Rosgvardia personnel to operate in Belarus.[15] The Kremlin already may have deployed Rosgvardia personnel to Belarus to augment Belarusian security forces, which are operating at reduced strength following a steady trickle of personnel resignations since the crisis began in August 2020.[16]

ISW will continue monitoring the situation and providing updates.

[1] https://www.belta dot by/society/view/armija-vypolnit-ljubuju-zadachu-dlja-sohranenija-territorialnoj-tselostnosti-strany-golub-424021-2021/; https://www.interfax dot ru/world/745186; https://russian.rt dot com/ussr/news/822235-belorussiya-kompleksy-s-400; В Белоруссии готовятся взять на вооружение российские С-400
[2] https://www.iswresearch.org/2020/08/warning-lukashenkos-security-forces.html; Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko and the Kremlin Vie for Control over Future Russian Weapons in Belarus
[3] Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko and the Kremlin Vie for Control over Future Russian Weapons in Belarus
[4] Warning: Lukashenko’s Security Forces Detain Belarusian Opposition Leaders
[5] Belarus Warning Update: Lukashenko and the Kremlin Vie for Control over Future Russian Weapons in Belarus
[6] https://www.mil dot by/ru/news/109473/
[7] https://www.mil dot by/ru/news/109473/
[8] Belarus Warning Update: Putin Will Increase Pressure on Lukashenko to Integrate Belarus in 2021
[9] Belarus Warning Update: Putin Will Increase Pressure on Lukashenko to Integrate Belarus in 2021
[10]
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO-NDgfixpo

[11]
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO-NDgfixpo

[12] Belarus Warning Update: Russia and Belarus Launch Military Exercises
[13] Belarus Warning Update: Security Personnel in Green Uniforms without Insignia Appear in Minsk
[14] Belarus Warning Update: Putin Likely Disrupts Lukashenko’s Plan for Defusing Protests
[15] An official Belarusian legal portal did not publish this document until December 18, 2020. https://pravo dot by/document/?guid=12551&p0=I02000029&p1=1&p5=0
[16] https://t dot me/By_Pol/146; Cracks Appear Among Lukashenko’s Security Forces The situation in law enforcement agencies of Belarus and the prospects of weakening the main support of the Lukashenko regime Exiled Defectors From Belarus's Law Enforcement Are Now Holding Their Ex-Colleagues To Account


ISW Blog (iswresearch.org)
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Russia follows US in withdrawal from Open Skies Treaty

Russia says it will withdraw from an international treaty allowing observation flights over military facilities following the U.S. exit from the pact

By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV Associated Press

15 January 2021, 07:16

MOSCOW -- Russia said on Friday that it will withdraw from an international treaty allowing surveillance flights over military facilities after the U.S. exit from the pact, compounding the challenges faced by the incoming administration of president-elect Joe Biden.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the U.S. withdrawal from the Open Skies Treaty last year “significantly upended the balance of interests of signatory states,” adding that Moscow’s proposals to keep the treaty alive after the U.S. exit have been cold-shouldered by Washington’s allies.


The ministry said that Russia is now launching the relevant procedures to withdraw from the pact "due to the lack of progress in removing the obstacles for the treaty's functioning in the new conditions.” The Russian parliament, which ratified the treaty in 2001, will now have to vote to leave it.

The treaty was intended to build trust between Russia and the West by allowing the accord’s more than three dozen signatories to conduct reconnaissance flights over each other’s territories to collect information about military forces and activities. More than 1,500 flights have been conducted under the treaty, aimed at fostering transparency about military activity and helping monitor arms control and other agreements.

U.S. President Donald Trump pulled out of the Open Skies Treaty, arguing that Russian violations made it untenable for the United States to remain a party. The U.S. completed its withdrawal from the pact in November.

Russia denied breaching the treaty, which came into force in 2002. The European Union has urged the U.S. to reconsider and called on Russia to stay in the pact and lift flight restrictions, notably over its westernmost Kaliningrad region, which lies between NATO allies Lithuania and Poland.

Russia has argued that the limits on flights over Kaliningrad, which hosts sizable military forces, are permissible under the treaty’s terms, noting that the U.S. has imposed more sweeping restrictions on observation flights over Alaska.

As a condition for staying in the pact after the U.S. pullout, Moscow unsuccessfully sought guarantees from NATO allies that they wouldn't transfer the data collected during their observation flights over Russia to the U.S.

Leonid Slutsky, head of the foreign affairs committee in the lower house of the Russian parliament, said in televised remarks Friday that Russia could review its decision to withdraw if the U.S. decides to return to the pact, but acknowledged that the prospect looks “utopian.”

Moscow has warned that the U.S. withdrawal will erode global security by making it more difficult for governments to interpret the intentions of other nations, particularly amid Russia-West tensions after the Russian annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014.

The demise of the Open Skies Treaty follows the U.S. and Russian withdrawal in 2019 from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

The INF Treaty, which was signed in 1987 by U.S. President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, banned land-based cruise and ballistic missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers (310 to 3,410 miles), weapons seen as particularly destabilizing because of the shorter time they take to reach targets compared with intercontinental ballistic missiles.

The only U.S.-Russian arms control pact still standing is the New START treaty that expires in three weeks. Moscow and Washington have discussed the possibility of its extension, but have so far failed to overcome their differences.

Biden has spoken for the preservation of the New START treaty and Russia has said it's open for its quick and unconditional extension. But negotiating the deal before the pact expires on February 5 appears extremely challenging.

New START was signed in 2010 by U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. It limits each country to no more than 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers, and envisages sweeping on-site inspections to verify compliance.

Arms control advocates have warned that its expiration would remove any checks on U.S. and Russian nuclear forces, striking a blow to global stability.

Russia follows US in withdrawal from Open Skies Treaty - ABC News (go.com)
 

Plain Jane

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UK toughens up borders over Brazil virus variant fears
By DANICA KIRKA and PAN PYLASyesterday



1 of 14
Members of the public receive the Oxford/AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine at Lichfield Cathedral, in Staffordshire, England, Friday, Jan. 15, 2021. The U.K. is ramping up its mass vaccination program as the government seeks to protect the country’s oldest and most vulnerable residents before easing a third national lockdown. (Jacob King/PA via AP)

LONDON (AP) — The U.K. moved Friday to toughen up its entry requirements beyond its surprise decision to ban travel from South America and Portugal in the face of a new virus variant in Brazil, arguing that the measures are needed to ensure Britain’s fast-moving vaccination program isn’t derailed.

Conservative Prime Minister Prime Minister Boris Johnson said remaining travel corridors will end Monday and that everyone flying into the U.K. will have to have proof of a negative COVID-19 test taken 72 hours before departure. Under the travel corridor arrangements, anyone arriving in the U.K. from countries deemed safe was exempt from a period of quarantine.

Once in Britain, travelers will have to self-isolate for ten days unless they can show evidence of a further negative test at least five days after arrival.

The scrapping of the travel corridors came after the government banned travel from South America and Portugal amid concerns over the Brazil variant, which authorities have said has yet to appear in the U.K. Portugal has been particularly aghast at the ban, which the British government said was justified because of its strong links with Brazil.

“At this crucial stage, what we can’t have is new variants with unknown qualities coming in from abroad and that’s why we’ve set up the system to stop arrivals from places where there are new variants of concern and set up the extra tough measures,” Johnson told a press briefing.

Though the decision was widely welcomed, including by lobby group Airlines U.K., Johnson was also accused again of tardy decision-making.

“I think many people will say ‘Why on earth didn’t this happen before?’” said Keir Starmer, leader of the main opposition Labour Party. “Many countries have taken this step before we did. Right step, but slow again.”

Whether the changes make much difference is another matter, as many countries have themselves banned travel from the U.K. following the discovery in England of another, more contagious variant of the virus that has been blamed for a sharp rise in infections and deaths. Scientists have said there is no indication the U.K. variant reacts any differently to coronavirus vaccines.

The U.K. is ramping up its mass vaccination program to the country’s oldest and most vulnerable residents. According to government figures, a little more than 3.2 million people, or around 5% of the population, have received a first dose of a two-shot vaccine.

Britain plans to give the first dose to around 15 million people, including those over 70, frontline healthcare workers and others who are particularly vulnerable to the virus, by the middle of February.

While the first stage of the vaccination program aims to protect around 85% of those deemed most likely to die from COVID-19, the country is expected to continue recording high mortality rates over coming weeks because of the lag time between infections and deaths.

Johnson said there are currently over 37,000 COVID-related patients in hospitals across the U.K., which is around 15,000 more than in the first peak of the pandemic in April.

“We are now seeing cancer treatments sadly postponed, ambulances queuing, and intensive care units spilling over into adjacent wards,” he said.

The government on Friday reported 55,761 more confirmed infections and the deaths of another 1,280 people within 28 days of testing positive for the virus. The daily update brought the U.K.’s overall death toll to 87,295, the highest in Europe and the fifth-highest in the world. On Friday, the global death toll surpassed 2 million, according to figures compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

Many of the newly diagnosed are likely to have become infected during the Christmas holidays, before the current national lockdown in England came into force on Jan. 5. The other nations of the U.K. — Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland — have tightened lockdown restrictions too.

Professor Chris Whitty, the British government’s chief medical officer, said he hoped the peak of infections has “already happened” in London and the southeast of England where the new U.K. variant was first identified and where restrictions had been tightened before the national lockdown.

“The peak of deaths I fear is in the future, the peak of hospitalizations in some parts of the country may be around about now and beginning to come off the very, very top,” he said.

“Because people are sticking so well to the guidelines we do think the peaks are coming over the next week to 10 days for most places in terms of new people into hospital.”
__
Follow AP coverage of the coronavirus pandemic at:
Coronavirus pandemic
Coronavirus vaccine
Understanding the Outbreak
Trump's presidency not just a blip in US foreign policy
 

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CDU Anoints Merkel's Successor In Party Leadership Vote
Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN
SATURDAY, JAN 16, 2021 - 11:45
Ever since Angela Merkel's protege, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, resigned as minister of defense and Merkel's hand-picked successor as leader of the CDU 11 months ago after defying Merkel's ban on working with the far-right AfD (Alternative for Germany) party (the two parties worked together to install a conservative, pro-business candidate as premier), Germany, and its European allies, have been eagerly anticipating the election of her successor.

The wait is now over. On Saturday, Armin Laschet, prime minister of the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia, has officially been elected to lead the CDU. With Merkel set to retire at the end of the year, Laschet has roughly 10 months to convince Germans that he could be a responsible steward, since - as he made clear in his first post-election remarks - "continuity" is the name of the game.

Laschet is now the front-runner in the race to succeed Merkel at the close of her 15+ year Chancellorship, during which time she has emerged as the de facto protector of the European political status quo. He won the vote for party leader on Saturday by a solid margin, beating Friedrich Merz, the former chairman of BlackRock Germany, by 521 votes to 466 in a poll held digitally, since Germany is in the middle of a strict lockdown.

Analysts at Goldman wrote in a recent note that Laschet has "styled himself as a safe pair of hands with executive experience who can appeal to conservaties and more centrist voters."
Among his top policy positions, Laschet has called for the return of the "black zero" - Germany's balanced budget rule at the federal level - to be reinstated by 2024.

In terms of European integration, Laschet and his ‘running mate’ Jens Spahn, Germany’s health minister, who is expected to stand for deputy party leader, would support the idea of a multi-speed European Union based more on majority voting (which might mean he's more amenable to working with EU rebels Poland and Hungary).

The FT lays out Laschet's appeal, which calls for protecting the CDU's status as a big tent party.
His win marks a triumph for the liberals and centrists in the CDU, who want it to continue the moderate, middle-of-the-road policies pursued by Ms Merkel in her 16 years as chancellor. Mr Merz was backed by those who want the party to tilt the right. Mr Laschet, 59 years old, won with an emotional speech that emphasised his humble beginnings — his father was a coalminer — and conveyed a message of conciliation and compromise.
The next CDU leader must, he said, have the “ability to unify”. “We’ll only win if we remain strong in the centre of society,” he said in his speech, which was viewed online by the 1,001 delegates. “We must ensure that this centre continues to have faith in us.”
An easy-going Rhinelander, Mr Laschet wants to preserve the CDU’s status as Germany’s last-remaining Volkspartei, a broad church bringing together hardcore conservatives, green-tinged city dwellers and Merkel-ite liberals that has governed Germany for 51 of the past 71 years.
Of course, Laschet must still win during September's federal elections. Unfortunately, Laschet still has an uphill battle, since the CSU's Markus Söder has an edge in the polls.
Germany’s next chancellor won’t necessarily be decided by this weekend’s vote, however. A YouGov poll taken in early January shows Markus Söder, the president of Bavaria and member of the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, the CSU, as by far the top choice; 26 percent of those polled supported Söder, while Merz came a distant second with 8 percent. Tellingly for September’s elections, 47 percent said either none of the above or were undecided.

The next leader will also have a tough act to follow, since Merkel is essentially the darling of the globalist Davos set For the third year running, Germany topped a Gallup poll where respondents were asked to rate their approval of a country’s leadership. Another Pew poll cited by Foreign Policy showed Merkel's approval is at an all-time high, thanks to her handling of the coronavirus.

But Merkel and the rest of the German political establishment might have a serious problem on their hands. The AfD, Germany's conservative, anti-immigrant party, has been gaining in popularity as Europe's economy continues to struggle, problems that will undoubtedly be exacerbated by the latest lockdown.
 

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Germany sends Alexei Navalny transcripts to Moscow in poisoning probe
Germany's government called for a thorough probe in Russia into the activist's poisoning. A Justice Ministry spokesman said the Kremlin had the clothing, blood and tissue samples necessary to carry out an investigation.



Berlin | Charité entlässt Kremlkritiker Nawalny

Germany's government handed transcripts of interviews with Alexei Navalny to Russia, as part of the Kremlin's probe into the poisoning of the activist, a Justice Ministry spokesman said on Saturday.

The ministry has demanded a thorough probe into Navalny's poisoning and made the interrogation protocols available to Russia's government. The Kremlin now has all the information needed to carry out a criminal investigation into the poisoning in August — including blood, clothing and tissue samples — the spokesman said.



Watch video08:25
Jacques Maire: Navalny recording “very very important” to investigation
"The German government assumes that the Russian government will now immediately take all necessary steps to clarify the crime against Mr. Navalny," he said.

"This crime must be solved in Russia," the spokesman added. "This requires investigations commensurate with the seriousness of this crime."

The Kremlin had made previous requests for legal assistance, but Germany's government delayed the response, referring to Navalny's poor state of health, which kept him from being questioned. The activist was brought to Germany for treatment after the poisoning attack.


Watch video02:16
Russian FSB agents followed Navalny for years: report
Navalny to return to Russia

On Sunday, Navalny is set to fly back to Russia for the first time since the poisoning, despite the risk of being jailed upon his return. Navalny has accused Putin of ordering his poisoning with the deadly Novichok nerve agent, and some supporters have urged him to stay abroad for his own safety.

The Russian government has denied any involvement in the attack, claiming that Russian agents would have successfully killed him if they wanted him dead.

The German Justice Ministry said Navalny was interviewed by Berlin prosecutors and provided "extensive answers" to questions submitted by Russia's general prosecutor's office.
The transcripts are now available to Russia under the European Mutual Legal Assistance Convention, the spokesman said.
lc/sms (Reuters, AFP)
 

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Alexei Navalny's Plane To Land At Moscow Airport Amid Massive Police Presence
Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN
SUNDAY, JAN 17, 2021 - 11:35
Reuters is reporting that Russian police have begun arresting supporters and allies of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny as they await his return from Berlin to Moscow.
He has reportedly boarded a Pobeda airlines plane in Germany to fly back to Russia for the first time since his alleged poisoning in August. This despite Russian authorities threatening arrest over a prior criminal case. German investigators along with Navalny himself have claimed Russian intelligence was behind an assassination attempt on direct orders from Vladimir Putin.

Specifically Russia's Federal Prison Service (FSIN) has charged Navalny with violating the terms of a suspended prison sentence still being served over a relatively minor 2014 conviction by staying in Germany.

Navalny told reporters upon boarding the plane: "Me, arrested? I’m an innocent person."
"I'm sure that everything will be absolutely fine, I'm very happy today,"
he added.

Russian authorities have long sought to question and investigate him in connection with allegations he was poisoned. BBC is reporting of the scene on the ground as it's expected he'll be taken into Russia custody:
Metal barriers have been erected inside the airport, Vnukovo, and Russian media are reporting that several activists - including key Navalny ally Lyubov Sobol - have been detained there.
Mr Navalny's spokeswoman Kira Yarmysh posted on social media pictures of police cars at the airport.

It's further being reported that airport authorities have erected a high opaque screen ahead of his arrival, presumably to prevent reporters and supporters from witnessing the high profile arrest.

Last month Putin personally weighed in on the saga, dismissing Navalny simply not important enough to be a target of Russian intelligence services. "It's a trick to attack the leaders of Russia," Putin said an an annual media question and answer session. "But that absolutely does not mean he needs to be poisoned," he noted. "Who needs him?"
In perhaps the most provocative and mocking statement, Putin added, "If someone had wanted to poison him they would have finished him off."
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Germany's 2020 borrowing comes in well short of forecast
Germany's Finance Ministry says the country borrowed 130.5 billion euros ($157.5 billion) last year as it loosened budget rules to help finance pandemic-related rescue and stimulus packages

By The Associated Press
19 January 2021, 05:19


German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, left, and German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, right, talk as they arrive for a meeting of the German federal parliament, Bundestag, at the Reichstag building in Berlin, Germany, Wednesday, Jan. 13, 2021. One

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The Associated Press
German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, left, and German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, right, talk as they arrive for a meeting of the German federal parliament, Bundestag, at the Reichstag building in Berlin, Germany, Wednesday, January 13, 2021. One topic of the meeting are the current developments of the new coronavirus pandemic in Germany. (AP Photo/Michael Sohn)

BERLIN -- Germany borrowed 130.5 billion euros ($157.5 billion) last year as it loosened budget rules to help finance pandemic-related rescue and stimulus packages — a considerably smaller sum than was originally planned.

After six years in the black, Germany resorted to running up new debt in 2020 to help cover the cost of huge support packages made necessary by the coronavirus pandemic and an expected shortfall in tax revenue. The country has Europe's biggest economy.

Parliament had authorized 217.8 billion euros in new borrowing. In the end, the economy suffered less than feared in 2020; the national statistics office said last week that gross domestic product declined by 5%, ending a decade of growth but still a better outcome than long expected.

Government spending last year totaled 443.4 billion euros, below the 508.5 billion euros that was forecast, the Finance Ministry said Tuesday.

“Germany is in comparatively good shape because we acted quickly and strongly in the budget,” Finance Minister Olaf Scholz said in a statement.

“We used a lot of money to protect health, support business and secure employment,” he added. “That pays off in multiple ways. The economic development is better, job losses are smaller, tax income is higher and new borrowing significantly lower than was forecast at times.”

Critics say that aid has been too complex and flowed too slowly. Germany was able to relax restrictions relatively quickly after last year's first phase of the pandemic, but has struggled to deal with the autumn and winter resurgence of infections.

Restaurants, bars, leisure and sports facilities were closed November 2 in a partial shutdown that halted a rise in infections for a while but didn't bring them down. On December 16, nonessential shops and schools were closed. That lockdown is expected to continue into February.

Germany's 2020 borrowing comes in well short of forecast - ABC News (go.com)
 

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Italian PM Giuseppe Conte survives confidence vote in Senate
Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has survived an upper house confidence vote, keeping his fragile administration afloat. The crisis leaves the leader vulnerable for future attacks.



Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte addresses senators
Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte does not need an absolute majority to remain in office
Italy's Senate endorsed Giuseppe Conte's government in a vote of confidence on Tuesday, but the prime minister failed to secure an overall majority in parliament.
The government has been teetering on the brink of collapse since former premier Matteo Renzi withdrew his Italia Viva party last week. The move left Conte without majority in the Senate, which is the upper chamber of the Italian parliament. Renzi's departure came after weeks of tensions over the government's handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Conte managed to stay in power following the late-night vote in the 321-seat senate. However, the split with Renzi left him short of the 161 votes needed for an overall majority as almost all Italia Viva's senators abstained. The final count showed 156 senators voting for keeping the government in place, while 140 voted against it.


Twin threats
The Italian PM was quick to turn his attention to the challenges that lie ahead.

"Italy doesn't have a minute to lose," he tweeted. "Immediately to work to overcome the health emergency and the economic crisis. Priority to vaccine plan and recovery plan."


Despite Conte seemingly trying to shrug off the crisis, the conflict has left him with a minority government and could make it difficult to pass crucial legislation. It also leaves the prime minister vulnerable to future parliamentary ambushes, especially as Italy fights to contain one of the world's worst coronavirus outbreaks.

Over the coming weeks, Conte and his supporters will likely try to recruit lawmakers, including former Christian Democrats, conservative and socialist deputies, as well as former 5-Star Movement (M5S) members and defectors from Renzi's camp, for their cause.

Political turmoil
The Senate cast their ballots a day after Conte survived a confidence vote in the country's lower house on Monday, where he and his government won the vote by 321 to 259 — a margin that was wider than expected.

Conte had appealed to pro-European lawmakers to support his fragile government or risk handing power to the nationalist right.

Previously, Renzi had said his party would "probably" abstain in Tuesday's vote — as it did on Monday. His party's vote against Conte would have made the chances of the Italian PM's survival even less likely.

Leading left and right
Conte was tapped by Italy's 5-Star Movement to lead the government after the 2018 general election resulted in a coalition of the M5S and Matteo Salvini's right-wing League party. In August 2019, the League submitted a motion of no confidence against Conte's coalition government. Conte had offered to step down as prime minister but the M5S and the PD agreed to form a new government with Conte staying on as leader.

Conte faces an unprecedented challenge to revive a ravaged economy, with parts of Italy currently under partial COVID-19 lockdown. He also needs to push a €220 billion ($196 billion) European Union recovery package through parliament.
 

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Spain: Explosion in Madrid destroys building, kills 3
A residential building has been seriously damaged by an explosion in Madrid. At least two people died in the blast, apparently caused by a gas leak.



Smoke rises from the site of an explosion in Madrid downtown
The blast occured just before 3 p.m. local time

A large explosion killed at least three people and destroyed most of a building in the Spanish capital Madrid on Wednesday.
Posts on social media showed a multi-level residential building with serious damage and debris littered over the street.
Smoke could be seen rising from the scene from across the city.



A witness told local Madrid newspaper ABC that "everything shook like a bomb" and that "much of the facade has fallen."

Local resident Leire Reparaz, 24, told the Associated Press that she heard a loud explosion: "We didn't know where the sound came from. We all thought it was from the school. We went up the stairs to the top of our building and we could see the structure of the building and lots of grey smoke."

Firefighters, police and specialized emergency workers were at the scene and and the surrounding area was evacuated. However, firefighters were reportedly unable to enter the building due to an ongoing fire.

Three dead
At least three people died and eleven were injured in the blast. The city mayor said the explosion appeared to have been caused by a gas leak.
Emergency services posted a video showing large amounts of debris littering the street.

The blast happened just before 3 p.m. local time (1400 GMT) in Calle de Toledo, a main thoroughfare just south of the city center. The building, reportedly owned by the archdiocese, is located near a school, a church and a nursing home. It reportedly housed priests in training.
Local eatery Cafe Pavon offered shelter to affected residents and acted as a liaison for concerned relatives.

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northern watch

TB Fanatic
European Central Bank faces gloomier picture for economy
The European Central Bank is confronting more economic gloom
By DAVID McHUGH AP Business Writer
21 January 2021, 01:30

Office lights of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, Wednesday, Jan. 13, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)

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The Associated Press
Office lights of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, Wednesday, Jan. 13, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Probst)

FRANKFURT, Germany -- The European Central Bank is looking at a darkening picture for the economy as infections and deaths surge. With more than a trillion euros of pandemic stimulus still in the pipeline, President Christine Lagarde is expected to underline Thursday that the bank has the means keep credit affordable and support the hoped-for recovery.

Spiking virus totals have led Germany, the eurozone's biggest economy, to extend restrictions on many businesses involving contact with the public until Feb. 14, while Portugal hit a record for new COVID-19 infections and France imposed a 6 p.m. curfew. Vaccination rollouts have been slower than many would like.

That is darkening the already gloomy outlook for the first few weeks of 2021, after Europe ended 2020 with fanfare over the start of vaccinations. The winter surge suggests that the first quarter could see economic output fall again after an expected contraction in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Official figures for 2020 are expected Feb. 2. The EU's executive commission has forecast a downturn of 7.8% for 2020 and growth of 4.2% for this year.

Yet no additional action is expected from Thursday's meeting of the 25-member ECB governing council, which sets monetary policy for countries that are members of the euro. That is because at their last meeting the board added 500 billion euros of pandemic stimulus in the form of bond purchases, bringing the total emergency support to 1.85 trillion euros ($2.66 trillion) in purchases to run at least through March, 2022.

More than a trillion of that has not yet been spent. Through the purchases, the ECB keeps bond market and bank borrowing costs low. The goal is to make sure companies that may be struggling can get the financing they need to keep going.

If the pandemic downturn lasts longer than expected, “the ECB would simply extend its current support measures for even longer,” said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist for Capital Economics.

Attention will focus on the post-meeting news conference by Lagarde and her comments on the economic outlook. She has warned against premature relief over vaccinations before they can be rolled out, and underlined that the central bank will do what it needs to in order to keep credit flowing to the economy.

The ECB's polices have kept financial markets calm despite the pandemic. Germany's DAX blue chip stock index hit a record high Jan. 7. Meanwhile, ECB stimulus has kept bond market borrowing costs low for governments, who are adding more debt as they spend on support for the economy and workers, including by paying the salaries of furloughed workers.

Since the ECB purchases are driving down bond market borrowing costs, it is making it easier for governments to spend without being hit by high interest payments for now. The European Union is adding more support through a 750 billion-euro recovery fund to support investment in projects that reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and promote the spread of digital technology. That fund is supported by common borrowing among member countries, a step toward further integration and solidarity among union members.

European Central Bank faces gloomier picture for economy - ABC News (go.com)
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Germany's Merkel stands by Russia pipeline that US opposes
German Chancellor Angela Merkel says she isn’t abandoning a German-Russian gas pipeline project that faces U.S. sanctions, although it’s likely to be an irritant in generally improved relations with the new administration

By The Associated Press
21 January 2021, 04:05

German Chancellor Angela Merkel talks to the media during a press conference on the current situation in Berlin, Germany, Thursday, Jan. 21, 2021. Topics include the decisions taken by the federal and state governments to combat the Corona pandemic,

Image Icon
The Associated Press
German Chancellor Angela Merkel talks to the media during a press conference on the current situation in Berlin, Germany, Thursday, January 21, 2021. Topics include the decisions taken by the federal and state governments to combat the Corona pandemic, the Chancellor's upcoming virtual consultations with the heads of state and government of the European Union (EU), and relations with the United States following the inauguration of the new president. (Michael Kappeler/Pool via AP)

BERLIN -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Thursday that she isn't abandoning a German-Russian gas pipeline project that faces U.S. sanctions, although it's likely to be an irritant in generally improved relations with the new administration.

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would bring Russian gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea, faces bipartisan opposition in the United States.

Washington has said that the project would make Europe more dependent on Russian gas and hurt European energy security. The Kremlin has responded by accusing the U.S. government of trying to promote sales of its own liquefied natural gas.

Nord Stream 2 is owned by Russian state company Gazprom, with investment from several European companies. The pipeline construction was suspended in December 2019 when a Swiss firm pulled its vessels out of the project amid threats of U.S. sanctions, forcing Gazprom to try to complete it with its own resources.

Earlier this week, before President Joe Biden took office, Germany’s Economy Ministry said it had been informed of U.S. sanctions against the Russian pipe-laying ship Fortuna and its owner.

Merkel has consistently stood by the project. She acknowledged Thursday that she said last summer the poisoning of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, who was treated in Germany after being exposed to a nerve agent, “could play a role.” Navalny was arrested immediately after returning to Russia on Sunday.

But “I am saying today that ... my basic attitude has not yet changed in such a way that I would say that the project shouldn't happen,” Merkel added.

“We will of course speak with the new American administration,” she said. “But we must also talk about what economic relationships with Russia in the gas sector are acceptable and what aren't. And it's not as if there were absolutely no trade relations between the United States of America and Russia in the oil sector, for example.”

She reiterated Germany's objections to “extraterritorial sanctions.”

In general, Merkel said that “there is simply a much broader political overlap with President Biden” than with predecessor Donald Trump. But she said there will still be differences.

Gazprom says that 6% of the pipeline, or about 150 kilometers (93 miles), remains to be completed and insisted that it intends to complete the project soon — though it has acknowledged there's a risk the project could be suspended or canceled.

Germany's Merkel stands by Russia pipeline that US opposes - ABC News (go.com)
 

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In Portugal presidential race, how high can a populist fly?
By BARRY HATTONan hour ago



1 of 8
Cars drive past election campaign billboards for presidential candidates Marisa Matias, left, and Andre Ventura, right, in Lisbon, Tuesday, Jan. 19, 2021. Portugal holds a presidential election on Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021 and the moderate incumbent candidate is widely seen as the sure winner. But an intriguing question for many Portuguese is how well a brash new populist challenger fares in the ballot. Mainstream populism is a novelty in Portugal. (AP Photo/Armando Franca)

LISBON, Portugal (AP) — With the moderate incumbent candidate widely seen as the sure winner of Sunday’s presidential election in Portugal, the most intriguing question for many Portuguese is how well a brash new populist challenger will fare in a ballot skewed by a surging COVID-19 pandemic.

Mainstream populism, which has upended political assumptions elsewhere in Europe in recent years, is a novelty in Portugal.

But that could change as taxpayers squeezed by the economic downturn, vexed by hefty bailouts for banks and galled by corruption look for somewhere to vent their anger. A significant political shift in Portugal could help add fresh momentum to a continental trend.

Lawyer and former TV soccer pundit André Ventura leads a right-wing populist party called CHEGA! (ENOUGH!), founded in 2019. Nobody expects him to win on Sunday, as he is polling around 11% compared with more than 60% for incumbent Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. Even so, Ventura, 37, could conceivably place second among the seven candidates, drawing a level of support that until recently was unthinkable and sending a shudder through Portuguese politics.

A recent surge in the COVID-19 pandemic that has placed Portugal among the worst-hit countries in the world for new daily infections and deaths has added an unpredictable ingredient into the contest, even though the head of state is not directly involved in organizing the country’s response.

A potentially low turnout as voters, especially the elderly, possibly shy away from busy polling stations could upset expectations and allow determined populist sympathizers to capture a bigger share of the ballot.

Ventura’s showing “is quite something for a new party,” says Marina Costa Lobo, a senior researcher at Lisbon University’s Institute for Social Sciences. “He has gained a lot of visibility, a lot of exposure.”

Like other populists, Ventura portrays himself as leading common people against an entrenched and corrupt elite. French far-right populist Marine le Pen flew in for one of his campaign events in Lisbon. Ventura has participated in rallies in Italy held by Matteo Salvini, leader of the right-wing League party.

Ventura occupies his party’s single seat in Portugal’s 230-seat parliament. But he punches above his weight by generating headlines.

He is eloquent, happy to scrap in public and disdained by mainstream parties. His firebrand speeches have whipped up public support, especially on social media. He calls his supporters the “Portuguese Popular Army.”

He has complained that “minorities are living at our expense” and questions recent liberalizing trends. He asked in parliament last year, “You can change sex at 16 but you can’t go to a bullfight! Doesn’t this country have things the wrong way round?”

Ventura ticks the populist boxes. He wants heavier prison sentences, including currently disallowed life terms, for some crimes and chemical castration for convicted pedophiles and rapists before their release from prison. He opposes letting migrants, especially Muslims, into Europe and supports police demands for higher pay. He also wants to reduce the number of lawmakers in parliament and their salaries.

Major scandals in recent years have provided grist for his cause. Corruption cases against a former prime minister and against the head of the country’s largest private bank, which went bankrupt, have fueled outrage and tainted Portugal’s two main parties, the center-left Socialists and the center-right Social Democrats.

Taxpayers, meanwhile, shelled out more than 20 billion euros ($24 billion) to help banks between 2008 and 2019. That’s a substantial sum in one of the European Union’s smaller economies.

The election frontrunner, incumbent Rebelo de Sousa, is the kind of target Ventura relishes: An establishment figure with a 46-year political career, including a stint as leader of the Social Democratic Party.

Over his past five years as president, the gaunt 72-year-old has displayed the patrician bearing and cordial manner expected of a head of state. Though a president in Portugal has no legislative power, which lies with the government and parliament, the role carries considerable influence.

But Rebelo de Sousa’s once cozy relationship with the head of what was Portugal’s biggest private bank, including luxury vacations spent together, and his long spell at the heart of power, have left him vulnerable to attacks from Ventura and the election’s five other candidates.

Even so, Rebelo de Sousa has during his term kept his approval rating above 60% and is held in affection by many in this country of 10.3 million.

He cultivates an image of man of the people: Portuguese capture photos of him standing alone in line with his groceries at the supermarket, having a shave at a barber’s shop and chatting with excited children on the beach near his house in Cascais, an old fishing town 30 kilometers (18 miles) west of Lisbon. His small security detail keeps a discreet distance.
On Sunday, more Portuguese are likely to value those traits than Ventura’s pugnacity.
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Russia: Police detain Navalny supporters at nationwide protests
Police warned that demonstrations in support of jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny would be "immediately suppressed." Several dozen protesters have already been arrested.



Police arrest protesters at a rally in support of Alexei Navalny
Dozens of protesters have reportedly been arrested in a number of cities

Protests demanding the release of jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny kicked off in Russia's far east on Saturday.

Around 90 protests are planned nationwide throughout the day.

Demonstrators are meeting despite police warnings that the rallies are illegal and that they would be "immediately suppressed."

Police have reportedly detained dozens of people in the southeastern cities of Khabarovsk and Vladivostok.

Navalny was arrested on his return to Russia from Germany on January 17, following a near-fatal poisoning with a nerve agent.

He was handed a 30-day jail term for violating the terms of a suspended sentence he was given in 2014 on fraud charges.

The 44-year-old says the charges are politically motivated.

The US, the European Union, France and Canada have urged his release. The EU has also imposed sanctions.
A woman wearing a purple coat and fur hood is surrounded by riot police during an unauthorized rally
Protests kicked off first in Russia's far east which is several time zones ahead of capital city Moscow

What is happening at the marches:
OVD Info, which monitors protests, reported that more than 200 people had been detained in rallies across Russia.

Navalny's headquarters in Khabarovsk said on Twitter that several dozen protesters were rounded up by authorities in the city shortly after the demonstrations began. Video footage showed protesters braving freezing temperatures and chanting "Shame!" and "Bandits!"

The protests in Khabarovsk are also focused on the arrest of the city's popular former governor, Sergei Furgal.

In Vladivostok, video footage showed riot police chasing a group of protesters down the street.

DW Russia correspondent Emily Sherwin tweeted a video from the city, showing protesters chanting "let him go."

Others were braving minus 50 degrees Celsius (-58 degrees Fahrenheit) in Siberian Yakutia to protest, Sherwin added.

Meanwhile, hundreds of people were gathering in the capital, Moscow — which is several time zones behind Khabarovsk and Vladivostok — ahead of a planned march from central Pushkin Square to the Kremlin. Reports from the AFP and Reuters news agencies said police had started detaining people at the scene.
A participant holds a poster reading Strength is in the Truth during an unauthorized rally
A participant holds a poster reading 'Strength is in the Truth' during an unauthorized rally in Khabarovsk

Russia cracks down on organizers, social media
The protests have been largely organized on social media, including TikTok, a video app popular among teenagers, and even dating app Tinder.

This prompted Russia's media watchdog Roskomnadzor to threaten platforms with fines if they did not remove content encouraging minors to participate in the demonstrations.
By Friday evening, the watchdog said TikTok had deleted 38% of the posts authorities deemed illegal, while YouTube had deleted 50% of posts flagged by Russian regulators.

Authorities also said they had launched a criminal investigation against Navalny's supporters for urging minors to attend illegal rallies on social networks.

The Investigative Committee for the Novosibirsk Region in central southern Russia opened a criminal case on incitement to mass riots, Russian media outlet MediaZona reported on Friday.

They reportedly detained a 20-year-old resident for his role in organizing protests.
Navalny's associates also urged Russians to take to the streets despite official pressure, promising financial help to protesters given fines.


Watch video01:51
Navalny releases 'Putin's palace' video ahead of protest
In a push to galvanize support, Navalny's team also released a video about an opulent palace on the Black Sea they alleged belonged to Russian President Vladimir Putin — something the Kremlin denied. The clip had been viewed more than 60 million times as of late Friday.
Several people close to Navalny, including prominent activist Lyubov Sobol and his spokeswoman Kira Yarmysh, were detained late Thursday for calling on Russians to join the protests.
kmm/nm (dpa, Reuters, AFP)

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Rioting youths in Dutch village torch virus testing center
By PETER DEJONG28 minutes ago



1 of 3
A police officer takes images of a torched coronavirus testing facility in the Dutch fishing village of Urk, Sunday, Jan. 24, 2021, after it was torch Saturday night by rioting youths protesting on the first night of a nation-wide curfew. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

URK, Netherlands (AP) — Rioting youths protesting on the first night of a Dutch curfew torched a coronavirus testing facility and threw fireworks at police in a Dutch fishing village.
Police said Sunday they fined more than 3,600 people nationwide for breaching the curfew that ran from 9 p.m. Saturday until 4:30 a.m. Sunday and arrested 25 people for breaching the curfew or for violence.

Video from the village of Urk, 80 kilometers (50 miles) northeast of Amsterdam, showed youths breaking into the coronavirus testing facility near the village’s harbor before it was set ablaze Saturday night.

The police and municipality issued a statement Sunday expressing their anger at rioting, “from throwing fireworks and stones to destroying police cars and with the torching of the test location as a deep point.”

“This is not only unacceptable, but also a slap in the face, especially for the local health authority staff who do all they can at the test center to help people from Urk,” the local authorities said, adding that the curfew would be strictly enforced for the rest of the week.

On Sunday, all that remained of the portable building used to administer coronavirus tests was a burned-out shell.

Police in Amsterdam also were bracing for another protest Sunday, sending officers to a square where demonstrators clashed with police a week ago. The city’s municipality designated the square a “risk area,” a move that gave police extra powers to frisk people.
___
Associated Press writer Mike Corder contributed from Otterlo, Netherlands.
___

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Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane


Centre-right incumbent Rebelo de Sousa wins Portugal’s presidential election
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Issued on: 24/01/2021 - 21:54
 Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa casts his vote in Celorico de Basto, Portugal, on Sunday, January 24, 2021.

Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa casts his vote in Celorico de Basto, Portugal, on Sunday, January 24, 2021. © Luis Vieira, AP
Text by:NEWS WIRES
3 min

Portugal's centre-right president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, won a second term on Sunday in an election marked by record abstention as the country battles a crippling third wave of coronavirus contagion.


The 72-year-old former leader of the Social Democratic Party, known for his warm persona and habit of taking selfies with supporters, won 61% of votes, above his 52% win in 2016.

Still, 60% of voters abstained - the highest figure in Portuguese history - in part because 1.1 million voters from abroad were added to the electoral register for the first time, but also due to hundreds of thousands of people in quarantine.

The president holds a largely ceremonial role but can veto certain laws and decree states of emergency, a power Rebelo de Sousa deployed often during the pandemic, taking parliament's lead.

"The most urgent of tasks is to combat the pandemic. This is my priority, in total solidarity with parliament and government," Rebelo de Sousa said in his victory speech.

Andre Ventura, a lawmaker for the far-right Chega party, narrowly lost out to left-wing candidate Ana Gomes in the fight for a distant second place, with 12% of the vote to Gomes' 13%.

The result was nevertheless a significant jump for Ventura, a close ally of European far-right parties who dubs himself 'anti-system' and has fuelled fears among rights groups for discriminatory views towards minorities. His party won just 1.3% of votes in the 2019 legislative elections.

Rebelo de Sousa, in an apparent dig at Ventura - whose campaign catchphrase was that he would represent the 'good Portuguese' and not those who lived off the state - vowed to be a president who "stabilises, unites, who is not only of the 'good' against the 'bad'".

Covid-19 deaths, cases surge
Masked, socially distanced and using their own pens, voters were subjected to extensive measures by local councils to prevent contagion during the voting process.

Still, almost two-thirds of Portuguese thought the election should have been postponed because of the pandemic, a poll last week by research institute ISC/ISCTE showed.

"Since the date of the elections wasn't changed, I decided to come early," said Cristina Queda, 58, who arrived at her polling station in Lisbon as soon as it opened at 8 a.m. to "avoid groups and queues".

The country of 10 million people is reporting the world's highest seven-day rolling average of new cases and deaths per capita, according to Oxford University data tracker www.ourworldindata.org.

The number of Covid-19 deaths broke records for the seventh day in a row on Sunday at 275, with hospitalisations also at an all-time high and ambulances queuing for several hours at Lisbon hospitals full to capacity.

Portugal has posted a total of 10,469 deaths from Covid-19 and 636,190 cases.
Casting his vote at a Lisbon school, centre-left Prime Minister Antonio Costa acknowledged the grave stage of the pandemic, but said that "everything was done for people to be able to exercise their democratic right to vote".
(REUTERS)
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Italian Premier To Resign As He Plots Latest Political Comeback
Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, JAN 25, 2021 - 15:37
Soon, Italy will be leaded toward its its 132nd federal government in roughly 160 years as PM Mario Conte, who led Europe's third biggest economy through its most recent debt crisis, while also setting Italy on the path toward closer cooperation with China, appears to be finito - at least for now.

Despite barely surviving a handful of confidence votes, 56-year-old leader's time as premier and leader of Italy's council of ministers is coming to a close. According to a government statement, Conte will resign next week to avoid a damaging defeat in the Senate, as he maneuvers to try and return for another round of leadership, combating Italians who are maneuvering against him.
Giuseppe Conte
On Tuesday, Conte is expected to preside over a cabinet meeting at 0900 in Rome and then head to President Sergio Mattarella’s office where he will formally step down.

The idea is that by preemptively offering his resignation to Mattarella, who oversees the formation of ruling coalitions, Conte will then likely be asked to take another shot at assembling another government, according to officials who asked not to be named discussing confidential deliberations.

The Five Star Movement, the biggest force in the current parliament, along with other lawmakers, are trying to trigger vote in the Italian Senate later this week.

However, the parliamentary math does not add up. The latest gambit for Conte’s political maneuvering stands to benefit from the fact that Five Star will plunge in the polls, and the party stands to lose the most if the government collapses and Mattarella decides early elections are unavoidable.

Earlier this month, Conte stepped down after losing his governing majority in Italy’s Senate, following a fight with a small coalition ally over how to spend massive funds offered by the European Union to help Italy recover from the impact of the pandemic. His resignation has triggered a search for a new governing majority, but if none can be found, then the EU’s third-biggest economy is likely to hold elections in coming months.

The breakdown of Italy’s left-leaning government shows that Europe’s political challenges of recent years, including the fragmentation of the political landscape and the rise of anti-establishment parties haven’t gone away, despite the pressure that the pandemic is putting on European politicians to work together across party lines.

Analysts who spoke with Bloomberg insisted that Conte's push for a "unity government” is his best option, officials said. Yet, it has long been said that Renzi and Conte have a long-festering dislike of each other and have been ill at ease in a coalition of mutual convenience.
On the other hand, Conte could seek to forge a new coalition centrists - really, center-right politicians including unaffiliated lawmakers and former PM Silvio Berlusconi, who leads the center-right Forza Italia.

Here's the full list of Italian leaders dating back to the Italian revolution back in the 1860s.

If Conte pulls off this maneuver on Monday and Tuesday, he will kick off his third government as PM. And just like that, the non-career politician pressed into service by a group of ideologically opposed anti-establishment parties will cement his reputation as the only man who could lead Italy, because he's the only man who doesn't want the job.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Netherlands Hit With Third Night Of Anti-Curfew Riots
Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, JAN 26, 2021 - 9:15
Dutch riots unfolded for the third consecutive night as anti-lockdown protesters defied the country's new curfew rules to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, according to RT News.
At least 150 people were arrested Monday night in Amsterdam and Rotterdam, where stores were looted and vandalized.

Rotterdam Mayor Ahmed Aboutaleb signed an emergency order last night giving law enforcement the powers to arrest protesters.

"These people are shameless thieves, I cannot say otherwise," Aboutaleb said. "I had to threaten them with the use of teargas – a far-reaching measure. I find that sad, because I have never had to do that in my entire career as mayor."
Social unrest also took place in other metro areas like The Hague, Haarlem, Almelo, Helmond, Geleen, Veenendaal, Almelo, Breda, and Tilburg.

Rioters were dressed in all black. Some torched cars and threw rocks and unleashed fireworks at police.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte condemned the rioters and said their motivations had "nothing to do with protesting" lockdowns.
"It's criminal violence and we will treat it as such," Rutte added.
In several Dutch cities, Mayors have also announced emergency orders to arrest rioters and prevent further looting.



In #Rotterdam kommt es offenbar wieder zu Angriffen auf die Polizei, diese wirkt aktuell wieder überfordert.#AvondklokProtest #Avondklok #Niederlande #Netherlandspic.twitter.com/YJ2nowZE3c
— BlxckMosquito (@BlxckMosquito) January 25, 2021

Over the weekend, police said some 300 people were detained on Saturday and Sunday. Much of the frustration comes from the government shuttering all bars and restaurants in the northwestern European country since October, with schools and non-essential shops closed in mid-December to mitigate the virus spread.

Koen Simmers, the head of the national police union, told local television that officers are preparing for additional riots. "I hope it was a one-off, but I'm afraid it could be a harbinger for the days and weeks to come," he said.
 

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Netherlands Hit With Third Night Of Anti-Curfew Riots
Tyler Durden's Photo

BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, JAN 26, 2021 - 9:15
Dutch riots unfolded for the third consecutive night as anti-lockdown protesters defied the country's new curfew rules to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, according to RT News.
At least 150 people were arrested Monday night in Amsterdam and Rotterdam, where stores were looted and vandalized.

Rotterdam Mayor Ahmed Aboutaleb signed an emergency order last night giving law enforcement the powers to arrest protesters.

"These people are shameless thieves, I cannot say otherwise," Aboutaleb said. "I had to threaten them with the use of teargas – a far-reaching measure. I find that sad, because I have never had to do that in my entire career as mayor."
Social unrest also took place in other metro areas like The Hague, Haarlem, Almelo, Helmond, Geleen, Veenendaal, Almelo, Breda, and Tilburg.

Rioters were dressed in all black. Some torched cars and threw rocks and unleashed fireworks at police.

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte condemned the rioters and said their motivations had "nothing to do with protesting" lockdowns.
"It's criminal violence and we will treat it as such," Rutte added.
In several Dutch cities, Mayors have also announced emergency orders to arrest rioters and prevent further looting.



In #Rotterdam kommt es offenbar wieder zu Angriffen auf die Polizei, diese wirkt aktuell wieder überfordert.#AvondklokProtest #Avondklok #Niederlande #Netherlandspic.twitter.com/YJ2nowZE3c
— BlxckMosquito (@BlxckMosquito) January 25, 2021

Over the weekend, police said some 300 people were detained on Saturday and Sunday. Much of the frustration comes from the government shuttering all bars and restaurants in the northwestern European country since October, with schools and non-essential shops closed in mid-December to mitigate the virus spread.

Koen Simmers, the head of the national police union, told local television that officers are preparing for additional riots. "I hope it was a one-off, but I'm afraid it could be a harbinger for the days and weeks to come," he said.
 
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