WAR CHINA THREATENS TO INVADE TAIWAN

jward

jward

passin' thru
Thomas Shugart
@tshugart3
15m

Anonymous FSB insider - talking mostly about Ukraine - mentions btw Xi was considering taking Taiwan this fall to cement a 3rd term (before Ukr war). Take it FWIW of course.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1502302777741090819
View: https://twitter.com/tshugart3/status/1502302777741090819?s=20&t=kJ8r9MQQHtKsV3FTHGAuoQ






Steven Stashwick
StevenStashwick
4m

I don't think Xi needs to do anything new to secure votes in the Central Committee. He *definitely* doesn't need to risk abject military and economic humiliation.
 
Knoxville's Joker

Knoxville's Joker

Has No Life - Lives on TB
This is typical saber rattling and what not seeing who can provoke who first. This is also to see if they can force the other side to reveal the hidden hand of secret advanced assets.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
China / Military
Taiwan looks at extending compulsory military service beyond 4 months

  • Minister tells parliament that proposals are under consideration and a plan will be put forward this year
  • Beijing’s pressure on the island and Russia’s war in Ukraine have prompted debate on how to boost defence

Published: 3:25pm, 23 Mar, 2022

Updated: 3:25pm, 23 Mar, 2022


Although Taiwan’s military is dwarfed by that of mainland China’s, strategists hope superior training could help give them the edge in a conflict. Photo: EPA-EFE

Although Taiwan’s military is dwarfed by that of mainland China’s, strategists hope superior training could help give them the edge in a conflict. Photo: EPA-EFE

Taiwan is considering extending compulsory military service beyond the current four months, Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said on Wednesday, as the war in Ukraine renewed a discussion about how best to respond to Beijing’s military threats.
Taiwan has been gradually shifting from a conscript military to a volunteer-dominated professional force, but Beijing’s growing pressure against the island it claims as its own, as well as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, have prompted debate about how to boost civil defence.
Answering lawmakers’ questions in parliament, Chiu said proposals to extend military service were still under consideration, and that there would “definitely” be a plan put forward this year.
“We must consider the enemy situation and our defensive operations in terms of military strength,” he said.




Any changes would not come into effect until a year after they are proposed, Chiu added.
Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said the “enemy situation” and defensive operations must be considered. Photo: Handout


Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said the “enemy situation” and defensive operations must be considered. Photo: Handout
Previously, governments under the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and the main opposition Kuomintang had cut compulsory service from more than two years to the current four months, moves made to please younger voters as tensions eased between Taipei and Beijing.

Taiwan’s military is dwarfed by that of mainland China’s, but strategists hope superior training could help give them the edge in a conflict. The government is also working on a programme to reform reservist training.
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen is overseeing a broad modernisation programme, championing the idea of “asymmetric warfare”, to make the island’s forces more mobile and agile.
Taiwan holds live-fire drills on islet nearest mainland China

16 Mar 2022


Lee Shih-chiang, head of the ministry’s strategic planning department, speaking at the same session as Chiu, said he expected the first batch of US-made MQ-9 Reaper drones, which can be armed with missiles and operate at long ranges, will enter service with Taiwan by 2025.

Beijing has stepped up its military activities near the island in recent years, seeking to pressure Taipei to accept its sovereignty claims. Beijing does not recognise Taiwan’s democratically elected government or any claims of Taiwanese sovereignty, and has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under mainland control.

www.scmp.com

Taiwan looks at extending compulsory military service to boost defence

Minister tells parliament that proposals are under consideration and a plan will be put forward this year.
www.scmp.com www.scmp.com
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Taiwanese now believe Japan is more likely than US to send troops if mainland China attacked


    • A poll finds there has been a sharp fall in the numbers who believe Washington would intervene militarily, from 65 per cent in November to 35 per cent today
    • Ukraine ‘had profound effect on public opinion’, says chairman of think tank that carried out the survey

Kyodo



Kyodo
+ FOLLOW

Published: 3:04pm, 22 Mar, 2022

Updated: 3:51pm, 22 Mar, 2022



Beijing has never renounced the use of force to regain control of the island. Photo: AP

Beijing has never renounced the use of force to regain control of the island. Photo: AP

Around 40 per cent of Taiwanese believe Japan would dispatch troops to help defend the island if mainland China attacked – more than those who think the United States would come to their assistance, according to a survey released on Tuesday.
The two-day survey conducted from March 14 by the Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation found that 43 per cent of the respondents believe Japan would come to Taiwan’s aid militarily should Beijing attack, while those who said the United States would dispatch troops to the island came to 35 per cent.

You Ying-lung, chairman of the foundation, a private think tank, attributed the significant shift in public opinion to the “effect of the Ukraine situation”, saying the conflict between Ukraine and Russia had had an immense impact on the Taiwanese public.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began in late February, has sparked an international outcry, with the United States engaged in the unfolding conflict in Ukraine.

Taiwanese march in solidarity with Ukraine as Russian invasion seen as wake-up call for island


03:21

Taiwanese march in solidarity with Ukraine as Russian invasion seen as wake-up call for island


Taiwanese march in solidarity with Ukraine as Russian invasion seen as wake-up call for island


In the previous survey in November, 58 per cent of those polled said they thought Japan would dispatch troops for Taiwan’s defence, while 65 per cent believed the US military would do so.
Taiwan and mainland China have been separately governed since they split as a result of a civil war in 1949. Beijing regards Taiwan as a renegade province awaiting to be united by force if necessary.
The survey, conducted among a random sample of 1,077 adults from around the island by phone, had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.99 percentage points with a 95 per cent confidence interval.
www.scmp.com

Taiwanese believe Japan more likely than US to send troops if attacked

A poll finds there has been a sharp fall in the numbers who believe Washington would intervene militarily from 65 per cent in November to 35 per cent today.
www.scmp.com www.scmp.com
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Taiwan tests ‘tank killer’ Javelin missiles in drills to deter potential Beijing attack

  • The missiles have been used against Russia’s armoured vehicles during the invasion of Ukraine, whose resistance has been studied by Taipei
  • Taiwanese marines and army units have used them to destroy decoy tanks in drills in the past week
Lawrence Chung
Lawrence Chung

Published: 6:07pm, 4 Apr, 2022
Updated: 6:27pm, 4 Apr, 2022



Ukrainian troops have used Javelin missiles against Russia during the latter’s invasion. Photo: AFP

Ukrainian troops have used Javelin missiles against Russia during the latter’s invasion. Photo: AFP

The Taiwanese military has been using US-made Javelin missiles in training to test their effectiveness in helping to deter potential attacks from mainland China.
The 66th Marine Brigade, which has a unit to guard Taipei, the island’s capital, has practised firing the portable missiles, dubbed “tank killers”, which have been used recently by Ukraine to destroy a number of invading armoured vehicles from Russia.

According to the Military News Agency, affiliated to the Taiwanese defence ministry, marines from the brigade joined air force and army units in a series of drills in the past week at the Joint Operations Training Base Command in Pingtung, southern Taiwan.
During the training, the air force’s F-16 fighter jets used decoy flares to counter infrared homing (or heat-seeking) surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles. Also used in the drills were howitzers, mortars, tanks, amphibious assault vehicles and US-made OH-58D helicopters, the agency said.

Heightened tensions in Taiwan amid Russian invasion of Ukraine


02:20

Heightened tensions in Taiwan amid Russian invasion of Ukraine


Heightened tensions in Taiwan amid Russian invasion of Ukraine
The brigade successfully destroyed the decoy tanks in day and night drills, it said.




The American-made FGM-148 Javelin (AAWS-M), which has been in use since 1996, is a portable anti-tank missile system. Its warhead is able to defeat modern tanks by hitting them from above, where their armour is the most vulnerable.
The Javelin can also be used to attack buildings, helicopters, and targets beneath obstructions or that are too close to attempt an overhead strike.

It has a range of 2.5km (1.5 miles), and can reach a peak altitude of 150 metres (490 feet) in top-attack mode, or 60 metres in direct-fire mode. It is equipped with an infrared seeker.
The type being used by the Taiwanese military is the third-generation model of the Javelin, according to a brigade officer. That was the first generation to be designed with the two assault modes of direct and overhead.

Taiwan’s armed forces have about 1,000 such missiles for use in the army and marine corps. It has bought 400 more of them from the United States, and these are expected to be delivered in batches, beginning this year.

The missiles and 42 launch systems cost US$112 million, according to a defence ministry budget document.

The island’s military has also ordered 250 Stinger missiles – which have also proved effective in Ukraine’s efforts to repel Russia. Those missiles are expected to be delivered to Taiwan by 2026.
The Taiwanese government is watching the war in Ukraine closely, and drawing lessons from it in the hope of enhancing its own combat-readiness.

“The lesson we can draw from the Russia-Ukraine war is that, despite its military disadvantages, Ukraine is still able to use the uniqueness of its domestic battlefield and asymmetric capabilities to resist a giant enemy like Russia,” Taiwanese Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said late last month.

Taiwanese march in solidarity with Ukraine as Russian invasion seen as wake-up call for island


03:21

Taiwanese march in solidarity with Ukraine as Russian invasion seen as wake-up call for island


Taiwanese march in solidarity with Ukraine as Russian invasion seen as wake-up call for island
Chiu said Taiwan was studying how the Ukrainians were keeping Russian aggression at bay with “asymmetric warfare” – the use of movable and easy-to-operate weapons.

Beijing views self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province that awaits reunification, by force if necessary.
Tensions have escalated in recent years, with the mainland’s People’s Liberation Army sending warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence zone and staging war games nearby. Beijing is trying to ramp up pressure on Tsai Ing-wen, the island’s independence-leaning president, who has rejected the one-China principle.

www.scmp.com

Taiwan tests ‘tank killer’ missiles in drills to deter potential PLA attack

The missiles have been used against Russia’s armoured vehicles during the invasion of Ukraine, whose resistance has been studied by Taipei.
www.scmp.com www.scmp.com
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

Institute for the Study of War

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been increasing its study, training, and preparation for future urban warfare over the past decade. The PLA has limited experience with urban warfare and so often relies on observations of other militaries to inform
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org

THE PLA’S EVOLVING OUTLOOK ON URBAN WARFARE: LEARNING, TRAINING, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR TAIWAN
Pages%20from%20The%20PLA%20Outlook%20on%20Urban%20Warfare%20ISW%20April%202022%20Cover_2.png

Download the PDF
This paper is part of ISW's Military Learning & The Future of War series. Click here to go to the series homepage.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (Download the full report here)
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been increasing its study, training, and preparation for future urban warfare over the past decade. The PLA has limited experience with urban warfare and so often relies on observations of other militaries to inform its outlook. Among the drivers for this interest in urban warfare is that any Chinese campaign to force “(re)unification” with Taiwan could involve intense fighting in Taiwanese cities. The current edition of the Science of Military Strategy mentions an urban offensive (城市进攻) as a component of island operations (岛上作战) but does not elaborate on the conduct of such an offensive, likely because of the sensitivity of this scenario. This campaign could present a particular challenge, given that over 90 percent of Taiwan’s population lives in cities. Beyond the possibility of invading Taiwan, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is also concerned about terrorist threats, whether real and imagined, within China’s cities or against the security of Chinese citizens and businesses worldwide. Meanwhile, the conduct of urban counterterrorism has become the focus of several exercises and exchanges undertaken by the PLA and the People’s Armed Police (PAP).

The PLA’s outlook on urban warfare has informed its efforts to introduce new tactics, training, and weapons systems. The continuation or potential acceleration of efforts on these fronts could be critical indicators of its progress toward fulfilling CCP objectives in military modernization, including those targeted against Taiwan. While attacks on cities have been difficult throughout history, modern urban warfare has proven uniquely challenging for even the most powerful militaries. Such operations can be costly, lengthy, and bloody while negatively impacting morale at home and prestige abroad. Chinese military discourse often describes urban warfare as “battling rats in a china shop”
(在瓷器店中打老鼠). The complex environment allows adversary combatants to hide among civilians and creates high risks for collateral damage. Fighting in urban terrain inherently benefits defenders or insurgents who operate asymmetrically or can exploit an opponent’s aversion to causing collateral damage.

Within the past decade, the PLA has constructed specialized training facilities to simulate operations in urban environments and undertaken exercises that have contributed to establishing baseline proficiency in this style of combat. If China were to invade Taiwan, beyond the initial amphibious operations, the PLA would be confronted with considerable challenges, including considerations of public opinion and international legitimization. The success of such a campaign could depend upon the PLA’s capacity not only to counter potential American intervention but also to seize effective control across Taiwan quickly enough to enable a fait accompli that would be difficult to reverse. To that end, the PLA’s training exercises in urban warfare, especially by the Eastern Theater Command (ETC), have aimed to enhance the credibility of such capabilities while also advancing aims of coercive signaling. The PLA’s capacity to engage effectively in urban warfare at scale is an important benchmark for evaluating its prospects of using force to realize control of Taiwan.

Urban battlefields have often featured new technologies and necessitated the development of novel capabilities. The growing prevalence in urban combat of unmanned aerial and ground systems—drones—is a recent example of that trend. These systems can improve intelligence support at the tactical level, lessen the risks faced by troops, and facilitate the targeting of other weapon systems. The PLA’s avid interest in drones that could become more “intelligent” and autonomous in their operations reflects its belief that US, Russian, and Israeli military operations have already proven the efficacy of drones in urban combat. The complexity of the urban environment means that the PLA’s preparations for urban warfare will test the utility and reliability of its drone capabilities, as well as its other advanced technologies, and serve as a benchmark for the PLA’s progress toward “military intelligentization” (智能化).

This report explores the PLA’s history with urban warfare and considers several lessons from the PLA’s study of other militaries’ operations. Our analysis examines the PLA’s outlook on new technologies and emerging capabilities for future urban warfare, discusses several relevant weapon systems and capabilities that the PLA is pursuing, and evaluates the training and recent exercises through which the PLA is seeking to improve its proficiency in urban warfare. This report concludes by raising questions for future research and includes several recommendations and considerations for US and Taiwanese policy responses. The US military can look to leverage lessons learned from its conflicts over the past twenty years and explore options to contribute to Taiwan’s capabilities for robust defense and resistance within its cities. The PLA’s progress in preparing for urban warfare will merit continued analytic attention; an improved understanding of these dynamics could inform US and Taiwanese initiatives to bolster deterrence.

CONTINUE READING THE REPORT (PDF)

Return to the Military Learning & Future of War Homepage.

Offsite Authors:
Elsa Kania
Ian Burns McCaslin
Full Size Image:
 
jward

jward

passin' thru






EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3

Update: US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has scheduled a visit to Taiwan on April 26. China warned it would take strong measures if U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan and said such a visit would severely impact Chinese-U.S. relation.

This visit would be considered by Beijing as a violation of the one-China principle and related US-Chinese agreements, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council Ma Xiaoguang stressed.

Ma Xiaoguang, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council: China will deliver a harsh retaliatory blow in the event that US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan.

This will be the first visit of the island by a House of Representatives speaker in 25 years.
4:45 PM · Apr 22, 2022·Twitter Web App
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
From my email inbox Bloomberg Next China April 22 2022

Invasion Error

Taiwan, which is facing its own Covid battle, has enough on its plate without also having to worry about World War III. But more unnecessary grief was what the island's residents got when a local TV station erroneously reported China had launched an invasion just outside the capital of Taipei.

Chinese Television Systems, which is partially owned by the Taiwanese government, ran a ticker along the bottom of the screen early Wednesday morning saying Beijing had attacked several areas of New Taipei City. In fact, the chyron had been produced for a fire department disaster-prevention video and was broadcast due to a production error.

“New Taipei City has been hit by a Chinese Communist guided missile. Ships in Taipei Port have exploded, damaging facilities,” the graphic read. “Banqiao Station is reported to have been set on fire by explosives placed by special forces.”

-1x-1.png

An apology from Chinese Television Systems after erroneously reporting that China had launched an invasion, on April 20. Chinese Television Systems

The station issued an on-air apology and announced an investigation into what it called "gross negligence."

Several members of the public complained about the broadcast and understandably so. Nerves are a bit frayed as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has fueled concern it may give China thoughts about making good on its threat to ultimately take Taiwan by force.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Taiwan says Ukraine conflict will inform this year's military drills
By Ben Blanchard




3 minute read

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com
TAIPEI, April 27 (Reuters) - Taiwan's main military drills this year will draw on the experiences of the war in Ukraine, focusing on asymmetric and cognitive warfare as well as use of reserves as it practices fighting off a Chinese attack, a top officer said on Wednesday.

Taiwan, claimed by China as its own territory, has raised its alert level since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wary that Beijing might make a similar move on the island, though it has reported no signs this is about to happen.


What lessons to learn from the war has been widely debated in Taiwan, and discussed with the United States, according to Taiwan's defence minister. read more

Lin Wen-huang, head of the Taiwan defence ministry's joint operations department, said this year's Han Kuang exercises, which simulate a Chinese invasion and are Taiwan's largest annual war games, would "draw on the experience" of the Ukraine war.


"Of course, we will keep a close watch on the Russia-Ukraine war and the movements of the Chinese Communist's military, and will carry out exercises," he told reporters. "Taking into account the lessons of the Russia-Ukraine war, the military will continue to forge ahead on improving the use of asymmetric warfare, cognitive warfare, information and electronic warfare operations, and use of reserves and full strength of the nation."


Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24 in what it called a "special operation" to degrade its military capabilities and root out what it calls dangerous nationalists. Ukrainian forces have mounted stiff resistance and the West has imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia in an effort to force it to withdraw its forces.

Taiwan has been reforming its reserves to make them more combat effective, a task given more urgency by the Ukraine war. read more

Soldiers march to position during an anti-invasion drill on the beach during the annual Han Kuang military drill in Tainan

Soldiers march to position during an anti-invasion drill on the beach during the annual Han Kuang military drill in Tainan, Taiwan, September 14, 2021. REUTERS/Ann Wang
Cognitive warfare refers to how information can affect morale, something Taiwan says it already faces from China, while asymmetric warfare is about deploying highly mobile and sometimes low-tech weapons that are hard to destroy and can deliver precision attacks.

The United States, Taipei's most important international backer and arms supplier, has also been watching the strategic fallout for Taiwan from the Ukraine war, and considering how the island should prepare itself for an invasion by China.

Matthew Pottinger, deputy national security advisor during the Trump administration, told a forum organised by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies that Taiwan needs to follow in Ukraine's footsteps in terms of training snipers and making improvised explosive devices, or IEDs.

"And there's a lot more that the United States should be doing on the ground in Taiwan," he said, according to a transcript published on Tuesday. "I don't care if they're wearing U.S. uniforms or not. They can show up in shower shoes and flip flops and Hawaiian shirts for all I care. They need to be on the ground intensively helping train Taiwan."

The United States already helps train Taiwanese military personnel, though it is rarely publicised. A small number of U.S. forces are in Taiwan to train with Taiwanese soldiers, President Tsai Ing-wen said in an interview with CNN in October. read more

China has dismissed any comparisons between Ukraine and Taiwan, saying that Taiwan is a part of China and not an independent country.

China has been stepping up its military pressure against Taiwan over the past two years or so.

Taiwan rejects China's sovereignty claims and says only the island's people can decide their future.

www.reuters.com

Taiwan says Ukraine conflict will inform this year's military drills

Taiwan's main military drills this year will draw on the experiences of the war in Ukraine, focusing on asymmetric and cognitive warfare as well as use of reserves as it practices fighting off a Chinese attack, a top officer said on Wednesday.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Truss warns China to ‘play by the rules’ or face consequences


Truss warns China to ‘play by the rules’ or face consequences UK foreign secretary says Russia sanctions show west could use economic power against Beijing Liz Truss, UK foreign secretary, in London Liz Truss, UK foreign secretary: ‘We’ve shown that we’re prepared to prioritise security and respect for sovereignty over short-term economic gain’ © Hannah Liz Truss, UK foreign secretary, has warned China to learn lessons from the west’s robust economic response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saying Beijing will face consequences if it does not “play by the rules”.

Truss, in a hawkish set-piece speech, argued that the Ukraine crisis had delivered a salutary lesson to the west and showed that democracies must use economic levers to rein in authoritarian regimes. Her comments underline the dramatic change in tone on China taken by Conservative governments since David Cameron, then-prime minister, in 2015 said he wanted the UK to be Beijing’s “best partner in the west”. In her speech at Mansion House in the City of London, Truss said the west must stop being “naive about the geopolitical power of economics” and get tough with countries such as China. “Countries must play by the rules and that includes China,” she said, adding that Beijing was “rapidly building a military capable of projecting power deep into areas of European strategic interest”.

Her comments will be well received by Tory members of parliament — Truss is seen as a potential contender to succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister — but are likely to be shrugged aside in Beijing. “By talking about the rise of China as inevitable, we are doing China’s work for it,” she said. “In fact their rise is not inevitable. They will not continue to rise if they do not play by the rules. “We have shown with Russia the kind of choices we’re prepared to make when international rules are violated. We’ve shown that we’re prepared to prioritise security and respect for sovereignty over short-term economic gain.” Truss’s comments appear to be a warning to Beijing that it would face severe economic reprisals if it launched an attack on Taiwan, although her aides said she was making a more general point about reining in aggressive behaviour by China. Britain in 2020 announced it was banishing Huawei, the Chinese telecoms company, from its 5G network. London has been strongly critical of human rights abuses in the western Chinese region of Xinjiang and a crackdown on freedoms in Hong Kong. Truss said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had forced the west to reassess its reliance on exports from countries with authoritarian regimes.

“We are showing economic access is no longer a given — it has to be earned.” She was forced to row back from her suggestion — in pre-released extracts of her speech — that the west should provide “aeroplanes” to Ukraine. Nato has so far not provided warplanes to Ukraine, fearing an escalation of the conflict, and Truss’s allies admitted that this policy had not changed. They said she was referring to spare parts and equipment. Meanwhile, the Russian government has imposed sanctions on 287 current and former UK MPs and banned them from entering the country, accusing them of fuelling “unwarranted Russophobic hysteria”. The foreign ministry in Moscow said that the measures were a response to restrictions imposed on 386 members of the Duma on March 11. Johnson described the restrictions as a “badge of honour” for the politicians named on the list. The prime minister was included, along with House of Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle and other senior MPs.

Truss warns China to ‘play by the rules’ or face consequences

UK foreign secretary says Russia sanctions show west could use economic power against Beijing
www.ft.com www.ft.com
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Ukraine War lessons: Start with tactical nuclear ‘demonstration’ strikes?
Ukraine War lessons: Start with tactical nuclear ‘demonstration’ strikes?

chinamphib by N/A is licensed under China Ministry of National Defense N/A
Amphibious assault drill by PLA Navy marines.
FPI / April 28, 2022

Geostrategy-Direct.com

Russia’s war with Ukraine, which is into its third devastating month, has yielded lessons China could apply to any future war against the nation of Taiwan — and that the Taiwanese can exploit for their defense and survival, an analyst said.

“For China, the most important lesson of Russia’s stark military failures is that like Russia, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) quest for hegemony rests on a brittle and fatal hubris,” Richard Fisher wrote in an April 25 op-ed for the Taipei Times.

Russia for a full year built up its forces in anticipation of invading Ukraine “only to see it culminate in a ‘surgical’ strategy that failed to capture Kyiv and ‘decapitate’ the Ukrainian state,” wrote Fisher, a contributing editor for Geostrategy-Direct.

For China, the Nuclear Option

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has learned from the Russian invasion “that it must mobilize its strike against Taiwan within days, commit maximum missile, carpet bombing, and strategic airstrikes from the outset, and achieve a maximum synergy of amphibious and airborne mechanized assaults to capture the requisite number of decisive invasion bridgeheads,” Fisher wrote.

Russian leader Vladimir Putin “envisioned his war to conquer Ukraine as a stepping stone to political-military hegemony in at least Eastern Europe and the Baltic states,” Fisher added.

Fisher continued: “Just as Putin’s confidence derived from having theater nuclear superiority, Xi Jinping’s confidence may derive from a very large number of theater nuclear weapons, largely concealed among the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force and PLA Air Force inventory of as many as 3,000 ballistic missile and cruise missile delivery systems.

“Xi likely will not repeat Putin’s failure at the outset to use his new very low-yield nuclear weapons to devastate Ukrainian resistance.

“At a minimum, Xi may start his campaign with tactical nuclear ‘demonstration’ strikes to deter U.S. and Japanese military assistance, up to a tactical nuclear strike against U.S. bases on Guam; the CCP’s record of killing up to 70 million Chinese means it may not be deterred by limited U.S. nuclear retaliation.” ....

For Taiwan, Conventional and Unconventional Warfare

For Taiwan, Russia’s war with Ukraine is a reminder of “the critical importance” for the leadership in Taipei “to prepare fully to fight its own war against the PLA,” Fisher wrote. “However, the Ukraine war offers affirmation for competing Taiwanese strategies, those who insist Taiwan must be able to win conventional battles well beyond its shores, dominate conventional conflict on the islands, and wage unconventional/insurgent warfare against highly mechanized PLA forces.”

Taiwan must be aware, Fisher wrote, that the CCP “seeks the total suppression and elimination of Taiwan’s democratic culture and can be expected to apply the same capacity for extermination or reeducation as it has employed against the Uighurs, Tibetans, and in Hong Kong.”

For Taiwan, Ukraine has also demonstrated the effectiveness and necessity of targeting logistics.

“The PLA’s logistic support for a Taiwan invasion starts in Fujian Province, to include hundreds of invasion nodes to the north and south. There is no point in giving the CCP deference and time by holding back from attacking such nodes on the Mainland,” Fisher wrote.

Ukraine, the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) gave Russia “such deference, incurring a greater tragedy by allowing Russia to sustain its invasion from logistic support areas in Russia and Belarus,” Fisher wrote. ....

Ukraine War lessons: Start with tactical nuclear ‘demonstration’ strikes? | Trib 247 | trib247.com
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Tom Sauer
1f4a3.svg

@thomasbsauer
We provide Mental Health Treatment for America’s Veterans | Former Marine Infantry & Navy Bomb Squad | Naval Academy | UCLA | National University of Singapore

Corona Del Mar, CA
Joined September 2008
3,859 Following



26.3K Followers



Tom Sauer


@thomasbsauer
1h

I spent the better part of my career in (or focused on) WestPac. I know a thing or two about it. Here’s an excellent primer on the Tawain dilemma. It’s a VERY big deal. Bigger than anything happening in Eastern Europe today. Start paying attention.
RT 36 min, some pd adv in video, recommended by K.Schlicter.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6sCsOdqXQw
 
Zagdid

Zagdid

Veteran Member
www.republicworld.com

China holds internal meeting with top bank officials amid fears of potential US sanctions- Republic World

www.republicworld.com www.republicworld.com

Last Updated: 1st May, 2022 14:01 IST
China Holds Internal Meeting With Top Bank Officials Amid Fears Of Potential US Sanctions

China held an internal meeting with officials from foreign and domestic banks to examine measures to protect overseas assets from possible US sanctions.
Written By Anurag Roushan


In a key development, China conducted an internal meeting with officials from foreign and domestic banks to examine measures to protect overseas assets from possible sanctions by the United States. As per reports, the emergency meeting was held on April 22 with officials from the finance ministry, China's central bank, as well as international and domestic bank CEOs in attendance. "If China attacks Taiwan, decoupling of the Chinese and western economies will be far more severe than [decoupling with] Russia, because China's economic footprint touches every part of the world," said one of the officials, who attended the meeting, to British daily The Financial Times, ANI reported.

As per the report, the ability of Washington and its allies to freeze the Russian central bank's dollar holdings had alerted Beijing. Meanwhile, Chinese authorities are concerned that such measures could be used against them in the case of a regional armed confrontation or other crises. The British daily further reported that a prospective invasion of Taiwan could trigger the US to impose sanctions against China.

China criticises US for maintaining official ties with Taiwan
China has often chastised the United States for maintaining official ties with Taiwan, claiming that such activities violate China's sovereignty and territorial integrity and contribute to regional instability. Earlier on Friday, April 29, the Chinese embassy in Washington stated that the situations in Ukraine and Taiwan are fundamentally different, and attempts by the US to draw comparisons between them are merely attempting to mislead the public. Furthermore, it highlighted a "new wave" of tension on the island, accusing the Biden administration of using the matter of Taiwan's independence to contain China.

Taiwan bolsters ties with US & other democracies to counter Chinese aggression
It is pertinent to mention here that China asserts absolute sovereignty over Taiwan, despite the island's self-government for more than seven decades. Taipei, on the other hand, has countered Chinese aggression by strengthening strategic ties with democracies, particularly the United States, which China frequently opposes. Last month, the US also approved the sale of training and equipment worth up to $95 million (over Rs 700 crores) to support Taiwan's Patriot missile defense system. According to the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), the package would comprise training, planning, fielding, deployment, operation, maintenance and associated equipment for the Patriot Air Defense System.
 
danielboon

danielboon

TB Fanatic
Taiwan considers alternatives after U.S. informs of howitzer delay
0e246952e6dda9f2b9b33bb5815aa534

FILE PHOTO: U.S. Army M109A6 Paladin self-propelled howitzers are seen during a military exercise in Pocheon

Mon, May 2, 2022, 3:30 AM·1 min read


TAIPEI (Reuters) - Taiwan's Defence Ministry said on Monday it was considering alternative weapons options after the United States informed it that the delivery of an artillery system would be delayed due to a "crowded" production line.
Washington last year approved the potential sale of 40 155mm M109A6 Medium Self-Propelled Howitzer artillery systems to Taiwan in a deal valued at up to $750 million, which Taiwanese media said had been due to be delivered by 2023.
Taiwan's Defence Ministry said, however, that because of a "crowded" production line for the M109A6, the U.S. had told it this would not happen until 2026 at the earliest.
Taiwan is considering other precision and long-range alternative weapons systems including truck-based rocket launchers made by Lockheed Martin Corp called the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, the ministry added.
It did not say why the production line was snarled, but the United States has been ramping up its military support and supply of equipment for Ukraine following Russia's invasion.
Taiwan, claimed by China as its own territory, is undertaking a military modernisation programme to improve its capabilities to fend off a Chinese attack, including with precision weapons like missiles.
U.S. officials have been pushing Taiwan to modernise its military so it can become a "porcupine", hard for China to attack.
U.S. arms sales to Taiwan always anger China and increase tensions between Beijing and Washington.
China considers Taiwan its most important and sensitive territorial issue.
Taiwan's government rejects China's sovereignty claims, saying only the island's people can decide their own future.
news.yahoo.com

Taiwan considers alternatives after U.S. informs of howitzer delay

Taiwan's Defence Ministry said on Monday it was considering alternative weapons options after the United States informed it that the delivery of an artillery system would be delayed due to a "crowded" production line. Washington last year approved the potential sale of 40 155mm M109A6 Medium...
news.yahoo.com news.yahoo.com
 
Zagdid

Zagdid

Veteran Member
www.republicworld.com

China launches 'realistic' combat training exercises in Western Pacific- Republic World

www.republicworld.com www.republicworld.com

Last Updated: 4th May, 2022 12:53 IST
China Launches 'realistic' Combat Training Exercises In Western Pacific

China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier group has embarked on a “realistic combat” training mission in the Western Pacific, the Chinese Navy announced on Tuesday.
Written By Riya Baibhawi

nhim84w5psg3ibqq_1651647221.jpeg

File Image: AP

China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier group has embarked on a “realistic combat” training mission in the Western Pacific, the Chinese Navy announced on Tuesday. It was last spotted entering the western Pacific via the Miyako Strait, which is one of the few international waterways for the People’s Liberation Army Navy to access the Pacific Ocean from the East China Sea. Consisting of at least eight warships, the carrier group is the largest to voyage this far in the western half of the Pacific ocean.

Meanwhile the Chinese Navy, in a social media post, said that the mission is routine and adheres to all international laws and practices and is “not directed at any third parties.“ However, experts have deemed it to be Beijing’s attempt to enhance its naval exercises in the region, which is close to Taiwan-- a territory China claims sovereign rights on. Additionally, it also points out the country’s attempts to supplant US naval influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Liaoning warship was originally purchased as a hulk from Ukraine, following which it was entirely refurbished. China has since added a second entirely home-built carrier, the Shandong, and is believed to be at work on at least two more. The whole exercise comes months after China, along with the Russian Federation held its first-ever maritime patrol - Maritime Interaction 2021 - in the Western Pacific waters as the two countries sent a total of 10 warships under the Russian Pacific Fleet and six carrier-based helicopters for the military exercise in the Sea of Japan, and the East China Sea between October 17 and October 23, the defense ministries of Russia and China said in separate statements.

Sino-Taiwan conflict
Beijing claims sovereign rights over Taiwan, located roughly 100 miles from its coast, but Taipei has repeatedly claimed that it was an independent entity.

Speaking at the celebrations marking the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on July 1, last year, President Xi Jinping vowed for complete reunification of the motherland, fuelling fears of a possible annexation of the pacific island by Beijing. In addition, Jinping also vowed to "smash" any attempts at the formal recognition of Taiwan's independence.
 
T

Techwreck

Veteran Member
jward said:
Truss warns China to ‘play by the rules’ or face consequences


Truss warns China to ‘play by the rules’ or face consequences UK foreign secretary says Russia sanctions show west could use economic power against Beijing Liz Truss, UK foreign secretary, in London Liz Truss, UK foreign secretary: ‘We’ve shown that we’re prepared to prioritise security and respect for sovereignty over short-term economic gain’ © Hannah Liz Truss, UK foreign secretary, has warned China to learn lessons from the west’s robust economic response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saying Beijing will face consequences if it does not “play by the rules”.

Truss, in a hawkish set-piece speech, argued that the Ukraine crisis had delivered a salutary lesson to the west and showed that democracies must use economic levers to rein in authoritarian regimes. Her comments underline the dramatic change in tone on China taken by Conservative governments since David Cameron, then-prime minister, in 2015 said he wanted the UK to be Beijing’s “best partner in the west”. In her speech at Mansion House in the City of London, Truss said the west must stop being “naive about the geopolitical power of economics” and get tough with countries such as China. “Countries must play by the rules and that includes China,” she said, adding that Beijing was “rapidly building a military capable of projecting power deep into areas of European strategic interest”.

Her comments will be well received by Tory members of parliament — Truss is seen as a potential contender to succeed Boris Johnson as prime minister — but are likely to be shrugged aside in Beijing. “By talking about the rise of China as inevitable, we are doing China’s work for it,” she said. “In fact their rise is not inevitable. They will not continue to rise if they do not play by the rules. “We have shown with Russia the kind of choices we’re prepared to make when international rules are violated. We’ve shown that we’re prepared to prioritise security and respect for sovereignty over short-term economic gain.” Truss’s comments appear to be a warning to Beijing that it would face severe economic reprisals if it launched an attack on Taiwan, although her aides said she was making a more general point about reining in aggressive behaviour by China. Britain in 2020 announced it was banishing Huawei, the Chinese telecoms company, from its 5G network. London has been strongly critical of human rights abuses in the western Chinese region of Xinjiang and a crackdown on freedoms in Hong Kong. Truss said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had forced the west to reassess its reliance on exports from countries with authoritarian regimes.

“We are showing economic access is no longer a given — it has to be earned.” She was forced to row back from her suggestion — in pre-released extracts of her speech — that the west should provide “aeroplanes” to Ukraine. Nato has so far not provided warplanes to Ukraine, fearing an escalation of the conflict, and Truss’s allies admitted that this policy had not changed. They said she was referring to spare parts and equipment. Meanwhile, the Russian government has imposed sanctions on 287 current and former UK MPs and banned them from entering the country, accusing them of fuelling “unwarranted Russophobic hysteria”. The foreign ministry in Moscow said that the measures were a response to restrictions imposed on 386 members of the Duma on March 11. Johnson described the restrictions as a “badge of honour” for the politicians named on the list. The prime minister was included, along with House of Commons Speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle and other senior MPs.

Truss warns China to ‘play by the rules’ or face consequences

UK foreign secretary says Russia sanctions show west could use economic power against Beijing
www.ft.com www.ft.com
Click to expand...

Unbelievable hubris from Ms. Truss, who had an embarrassing problem with geographic ignorance during her visit with Lavrov sometime back.

She speaks here to China as if she is the mom and they were children to whom she is trying to teach a lesson.
I would guess the Chicoms were not impressed or swayed.

The team deep state lackeys appear to require total domination of not only their own people but other countries and their people as well.

At some point the sociopaths will push too far in their quest to rule the world, and the ensuing throw-down may spell the end of our current civilization.

While that sounds terrible, I suspect that it would be better for those who survive than to become prisoners in the total digital gulag that team deep state is so forcefully intent on erecting.
 
O

Old Gray Mare

TB Fanatic
Looked it up at the World Bank. Taiwan's GNP is on par with Turkey's. Taiwan has had seventy years to prepare. It's not like this is a surprise or the first time they've listened to China's saber rattling. Xi attacks Taiwan he may get more than a mean Tweet in return.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
PLA Navy steps up real-life combat drills in East China Sea near Taiwan

  • Sailors always ready for battle, Eastern Theatre Command says in online post highlighting actual combat practice
  • Drills follow series of air and sea exercises in response to US lawmakers’ visit to Taiwan in April
Liu Zhen



Liu Zhen in Beijing
+ FOLLOW

Published: 9:17pm, 4 May, 2022
Updated: 3:47am, 5 May, 2022



The PLA Navy’s Eastern Theatre Command has called its drills a warning against the ‘false signals sent out by the US on the Taiwan issue’. Photo: Weibo

The PLA Navy’s Eastern Theatre Command has called its drills a warning against the ‘false signals sent out by the US on the Taiwan issue’. Photo: Weibo

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) says it has intensified “realistic combat” exercises in the East China Sea, as Beijing’s tensions with Taiwan boil over.
The PLA Eastern Theatre Command on Tuesday revealed the details of a recent navy strike group drill, with a post on the naval unit’s official social media account saying the exercises were “closely related to the [PLA Navy’s] missions and tasks, focused on combat enemies and highlighted actual combat conditions”.
The training included more than 10 kinds of drills, such as close-in gun defence, main gun attack on the sea, tracking and surveillance, damage control, and search and rescue operations, according to the post.
The PLA has recently carried out a series of joint forces exercises around Taiwan. Photo: Weibo


The PLA has recently carried out a series of joint forces exercises around Taiwan. Photo: Weibo
“This training … helped the troops to further improve their capability and toughness in combat to win battles,” the command said. “East China Sea sailors are always ready for battle.”




The command did not specify the time and location of the training, but named two warships in the flotilla – Type 054 frigate the Wenzhou and a Type 056 corvette, the Deyang.
The drills appeared to be a follow-up to a series of PLA joint forces exercises in the waters and airspace around Taiwan, launched in response to a visit to the island by a bipartisan group of US lawmakers, who sought to reassure Taipei of Washington’s support in the event of an attack from mainland China.


US delegation visits Taiwan as Beijing warns of military action against the island


02:02

US delegation visits Taiwan as Beijing warns of military action against the island


US delegation visits Taiwan as Beijing warns of military action against the island
Right after news of the visit broke, it was reported that the Deyang and a frigate were launching “high-intensity, full-load training” exercises.

Eastern Theatre Command spokesman Shi Yi had said at the time that the show of power was a warning against the “false signals sent out by the US on the Taiwan issue”.
Beijing considers self-ruled Taiwan to be a breakaway province from the days of the unresolved Chinese civil war, to be taken back by force if necessary. Washington, while switching recognition to Beijing in 1979, has retained – and stepped up in recent years – its close ties with the government in Taipei.

US playing with fire over Taiwan, Beijing warns as it slams lawmakers’ trip
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, calls in Washington to provide more security support to Taipei have grown louder, further worsening the atmosphere over the Taiwan Strait and East China Sea.
On Monday, the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning led a large strike group of seven warships into the western Pacific for “routine training”. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is currently deployed in the Philippine Sea, not far from the Chinese flotilla.

Please see source for embedded video, additional photos and comments
Posted for fair use
www.scmp.com

PLA Navy steps up real-life combat drills in East China Sea near Taiwan

Drills follow series of air and sea exercises in response to US lawmakers' visit to Taiwan in April.
www.scmp.com www.scmp.com
 
Jaybird

Jaybird

Veteran Member
I have a few young friends from Taiwan. When I ask them about Jyna they tell me not to worry. They have a surprise for Jyna. Wonder if they already have the golden screwdriver out of the drawer?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top