INTL Armenia's Pashinyan says war with Azerbaijan 'likely' unless peace treaty signed - AFP

jward

jward

passin' thru

Armenia's Pashinyan says war with Azerbaijan 'likely' unless peace treaty signed - AFP​


TBILISI, July 21 (Reuters) - Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in an interview with the French AFP news agency published on Friday that a new war with Azerbaijan was "very likely" if the two countries were unable to agree a peace treaty.

"So long as a peace treaty has not been signed and such a treaty has not been ratified by the parliaments of the two countries, of course, a (new) war (with Azerbaijan) is very likely," Pashinyan was quoted as saying.

Pashinyan presided over an Armenian defeat in 2020 in a war over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, during which Armenian-backed separatists lost large amounts of territory in and around the enclave.

Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but inhabited primarily by ethnic Armenians, broke away from Azerbaijan's control during an extended conflict in the 1990s.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have engaged in a flurry of diplomacy aimed at a lasting peace deal in recent months, but there have also been sporadic border clashes, and the talks have not yet yielded a major breakthrough.

Both Armenia and separatist authorities in Karabakh have said that Azerbaijan has blockaded the territory since December, placing a border post on the only road connecting the region to Armenia and blocking most traffic.

www.reuters.com

Armenia's Pashinyan says war with Azerbaijan 'likely' unless peace treaty signed - AFP

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in an interview with the French AFP news agency published on Friday that a new war with Azerbaijan was "very likely" if the two countries were unable to agree a peace treaty.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
P

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

The Road That Could Ignite A War In The Caucasus | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

The Road That Could Ignite A War In The Caucasus​


BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, AUG 09, 2023 - 03:30 AM
Authored by Conor Gallagher via NakedCapitalism.com,
Azerbaijan has been blockading the lone road that leads to the region of Nagorno-Karabakh for more than seven months.

Residents are reportedly running out of fuel and food. Ever since the breakup of the USSR, Azerbaijan and Armenia have been locked in a dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave recognized as Azerbaijani territory by the international community but mostly populated by ethnic Armenians.

They fought a war there three years ago when Azerbaijan grabbed land in a six-week conflict that led to roughly 7,000 deaths. There have been periodic skirmishes ever since. While Nagorno-Karabakh is important to both sides, I don’t believe it is the primary reason Azerbaijan continues the blockade. The real reason is that Baku wants a peace deal that includes the opening of the Zangezur corridor – which would connect Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave wedged between Armenia, Turkiye, and Iran. The problem for Azerbaijan and Turkiye, which also wants the corridor, is that it risks a wider war. Iran has said such a corridor is a red line. Such a corridor would mean goods and energy could flow freely between Azerbaijan and Turkiye without having to be rerouted through Iran, thereby eliminating the lucrative fees Tehran charges for such transfers. This is part of the reason Iran is so opposed to such a plan and has beefed up its presence along its border with Armenia.

The nine-point ceasefire agreement signed under Russian mediation that ended the 2020 war included a stipulation that Armenia is responsible for ensuring the security of transport links between the western regions of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic, facilitating the unhindered movement of citizens, vehicles and cargo in both directions.

Azerbaijan and Turkiye have latched onto that point, insisting they have the right to set up transportation links through southern Armenia.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev is demanding that the corridor be opened as part of any lasting peace. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated that point on July 31, according to Hurriyet. Turkiye’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the same. According to Asbarez:
“The road to regional stability is through a comprehensive peace agreement. For this, the opening of the ‘Zangezur corridor’ is of great importance,” Fidan said.
Click to expand...


Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has conceded on the issue of Nagorno, accepting that it is part of Azerbaijan. That was more than two months ago, and yet the blockade continues because what Baku really wants is the corridor, and it is willing to starve the people of Nagorno-Karabakh and risk war to get it.



Both Azerbaijan and Turkiye have proceeded since the 2020 war as if the corridor is on the verge of becoming a reality. Both have been working on highways and rail lines where the only missing link is the roughly 10-mile stretch through Armenia. Back in January Aliyev declared that the project “will happen whether Armenia wants it to or not.”

It remains to be seen if he will be so confident going against Iran’s wishes. Tensions have been steadily rising between Tehran and Baku in recent months. Azerbaijan and Israel are now alleging that Armenia is using Iranian Shaheed drones, which would mark a major increase in Tehran’s support for Yerevan and the latest escalation over the Zangezur issue. Armenia has denied using Iranian drones.

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen announced the creation of a “united front against Iran” during a press conference with his Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov in Jerusalem for the opening of Azerbaijan’s embassy in Tel Aviv at the end of March. The close ties between the two are nothing new (Azerbaijan is Israel’s largest energy provider and the latter supplies the large majority of weapons to the former), but have ratcheted up in recent months.

In addition to escalating military exercises on their common border, Baku and Tehran are increasingly at odds over a range of other incidents. On Jan. 27, an attack by a gunman carried out at Baku’s embassy in the Iranian capital left the head of the embassy’s security services dead and two security guards injured. Azerbaijan quickly evacuated the diplomatic post.

Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry in late March accused Iran of being behind the shooting attack near Baku that left a member of parliament wounded. Azerbaijani media have speculated that some of the six individuals detained in the shooting lived or traveled to Iran at various times and that the primary attacker received training from Iranian special forces. Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry on April 6 also expelled four Iranian Embassy employees after declaring them persona non grata. Shortly after reports emerged about Azerbaijan arresting hundreds more while the media labeled them Iranian spies. Cohen was recently in Azerbaijan to open Israel’s first embassy in the country, which is located just 12 miles from the Iranian border.

The Zangezur issue is also causing friction between Ankara and Tehran, with Erdogan recently criticizing Iran for its opposition. India, too, is being drawn into the fray. Worried that a Turkiye-Azerbaijan-Pakistan alliance would upset the regional power dynamics and have repercussions for Kashmir, New Delhi is also sending arms to Yerevan.

If all of that doesn’t create enough of a powder keg, there’s also Washington neocons sticking their noses in.

Russia has long been the dominant player in the South Caucasus. Moscow put an end to the 2020 conflict by essentially telling Azerbaijan, which enjoyed an overwhelming advantage thanks to military support from Turkiye and Israel, to knock it off. Moscow mediated a peace and has had peacekeepers in the region, but Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine and fending off efforts from the West at regime change has created a bit of a power vacuum. The US is now trying to play a central role in finding a solution to the Armenia-Azerbaijan disagreements in an effort to diminish Russian influence in the region (or stir up trouble).

Neocons in Washington have long dreamed of using Azeris to destabilize Iran. There is no indication this would work, nor are the wider repercussions of such an effort clear, but that will not stop the neocons running the US State Department from trying. The Middle East Media Research Institute, which is run by Israeli and American spooks, wrote as recently as November about using Azerbaijanis in Iran to further their goal of regime change:

In order to bring about regime change at home and contain Iranian expansionism abroad, Iran needs to be weakened from within. The international community therefore must engage Iran more effectively inside its borders through pursuing a “periphery strategy,” i.e., supporting the ethnic minorities found in its border regions. This will achieve two goals. First, ethnic minorities would finally enjoy the freedom and human rights they have been deprived of since the early 20th century. Second, this would deprive Iran of human and natural resources it needs to perpetrate its malign expansionism in the Middle East.
An array of democratic ethno-nations in the periphery of Iran would create a “great wall” around the country. This “wall” would stretch from the Kurdish areas of Northern Khurasan to the Persian gulf in the west including Azerbaijan, Kurdistan and Khuzistan as well as Balochistan in the southeast and would limit Iran’s access to the outside world and consequently end its geostrategic importance regionally and internationally.
Click to expand...
Eldar Mamedov has written at Responsible Statecraft about what a stupid and reckless idea this is, but again, has that ever stopped the neocons before? For Washington, the Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions are an opportunity to get more of a foothold in the region dominated by Russia. Any conflict would create quite the headache for Moscow as it would be forced to try to balance the interests of not only Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also Iran, Turkiye, Israel and India.

For an inside look at the line of thinking from The Blob we can turn to Michael Doran, director of the Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East. In a recent piece for the Wall Street Journal, he weeps for the suffering of the Azeris, and despite Russia previously providing more of a stabilizing force in the region, Doran blames all the South Caucasus problems on Putin. Here’s Doran writing in the Wall Street Journal:

Mr. Putin also has been hosting talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia, apparently playing at peacemaking while keeping the dispute on a low burn. A true resolution of the conflict would obviate the need for Russian forces in Karabakh, one of his two major tools for forcing Baku to respect his will.
Meanwhile, Russia has an unassailable military position in Armenia, home to at least three Russian bases. Russian soldiers patrol key segments of Armenia’s borders, and Russian military officers entirely control Armenian air space.
By contrast, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has been remarkably successful at wiggling free of Moscow’s control—more successful than almost all other leaders of former Soviet republics. While fostering strong economic ties with Europe, to which Azerbaijan supplies oil and gas, Mr. Aliyev has simultaneously developed deep and enduring defense ties with Turkiye and Israel.
Click to expand...
The ironic aspect of this argument that Russia is fully behind Armenia and bullying around Azerbaijan is twofold:

1. Azerbaijan has enjoyed the overwhelming military advantage in recent years due to support it receives from Turkiye and Israel. Armenia has not enjoyed similar support from Moscow.
2. Armenians have been furious with Russia for its lack of support and for being too accommodating of Azerbaijan. Essentially, Russia has tried to mediate the conflict as even handedly as possible and is now getting criticized from both sides for it.
Click to expand...
Not to worry, though; Doran eventually gets around to the whole point of US involvement in the affair:

Mr. Blinken now recognizes that the American track offers the only viable path to coaxing Armenia to make peace and, thereby, limit the forms of cooperation with the Russian-Iranian alliance that threaten U.S. interests.
Click to expand...
Washington is freaking out over the burgeoning sanction-busting Russia-Iran relationship and is struggling to find a way to counter. The neocons at the Heritage Foundation sum it up this way:

Considering their regional and global geopolitical ambitions, the deepening strategic partnership between Iran and Russia poses a rising threat to the U.S., its allies, and partners in Europe, Eurasia, and the Middle East. Failing to quickly address these troubling ties—and the multiple threats that arise from them—will only lead to more international instability, including in the war in Ukraine. Washington and like-minded countries urgently need to take steps now to undermine and counter the anti-American Russo–Iranian axis before additional damage is done.
Click to expand...
The Zangezur corridor is indeed one area where Moscow and Iran diverge. While Iran views such an initiative as a major threat, Russia is more concerned with maintaining economic ties and transit options with Azerbaijan and Turkiye. Therefore any conflict in the South Caucasus is a win-win for Washington as it could allow the neocons to try out their theory that such a conflagration would destabilize Iran while also potentially creating a rift between Moscow and Iran if they don’t see eye to eye on the solution.

The RAND Corporation, too, has written about how the Caucasus is but one area on Russia’s periphery where conflict would weaken Moscow. With that in mind, officials in Azerbaijan and Armenia should be very cautious accepting help at finding a peace solution from Blinken and company, as peace is the last thing they’re worried about
 
CaryC

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Wildweasel said:
All about the gas/oil pipelines, which way the stuff flows and who gets the money.
Click to expand...
Just random firing of brain cells:

With Ukraine winding down, as far as support from the west is concerned, it is interesting that another Russian satellite is starting to have trouble.

I would assume that Russia would reallocate their forces in support of, and ironically, pipelines that feed into Europe will be in Russian control again.

So who will win the oil war? Russia or the EU?

Russian troops getting closer to Israel all the time. Wonder if Russian will think they can solve the Israel problem?
 
P

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
apnews.com

Armenians face genocide in Azerbaijan, former International Criminal Court prosecutor warns

The former chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court is warning that Azerbaijan is preparing genocide against ethnic Armenians in its Nagorno-Karabakh region.
apnews.com apnews.com

Armenians face genocide in Azerbaijan, former International Criminal Court prosecutor warns​


ABBY SEWELL
Updated 2:22 PM EDT, August 9, 2023
Share
KORNIDZOR, Armenia (AP) — The former chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court warned that Azerbaijan is preparing genocide against ethnic Armenians in its Nagorno-Karabakh region and called for the U.N. Security Council to bring the matter before the international tribunal.

A report by Luis Moreno Ocampo issued Tuesday said Azerbaijan’s blockade of the only road leading from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh seriously impedes food, medical supplies and other essentials to the region of about 120,000 people.

“There is a reasonable basis to believe that a genocide is being committed,” Ocampo’s report said, noting that a U.N. convention defines genocide as including “deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction.”


“There are no crematories and there are no machete attacks. Starvation is the invisible genocide weapon. Without immediate dramatic change, this group of Armenians will be destroyed in a few weeks,” the report said.

Nagorno-Karabakh is a region within Azerbaijan that came under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by the Armenian military in separatist fighting that ended in 1994. Armenian forces also took control of substantial territory around the region.


Azerbaijan regained control of the surrounding territory in a six-week war with Armenia in 2020. A Russia-brokered armistice that ended the war left the region’s capital, Stepanakert, connected to Armenia only by a road known as the Lachin Corridor, along which Russian peacekeeping forces were supposed to ensure free movement.

A government representative in Azerbaijan dismissed the report from Ocampo, who was the ICC’s first prosecutor, saying it “contains unsubstantiated allegations and accusations.”

“It is biased and distorts the real situation on the ground and represents serious factual, legal and substantive errors,” Hikmet Hajiyev, an assistant to Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev, told The Associated Press, on Wednesday.


In December, crowds of demonstrators who claimed to be environmental activists blocked the Lachin Corrirdor. Azerbaijan later established a military checkpoint on the road, blocking traffic that it alleged was carrying weapons and other contraband.

In Kornidzor, near the Azerbaijan border, a line of 19 trucks loaded with some 360 tons of medicine and food supplies have been parked for two weeks waiting for permission to cross.

Vardan Sargsyan, a representative of a crisis management working group for Nagorno Karabakh set up by the Armenian government, told The Associated Press the Armenian government had asked for permission for the trucks to cross via Russian peacekeepers and provided details on their contents but so far received no response from Azerbaijan.

“Unfortunately, there have been many attempts from the Azerbaijani side to manipulate this situation,” he said. “We just hope that this humanitarian initiative will be accepted as humanitarian and that it will be possible to transfer the goods.”

The International Committee of the Red Cross has also complained of being unable to bring aid shipments into the isolated enclave during the blockade, although the organization was permitted to evacuate a limited number of patients to Armenia for medical care.


Ocampo said the U.N. Security Council should refer the situation to the International Criminal Court, a step that would be necessary for the ICC to take it up because Azerbaijan is not a signatory to the statute that created the court.

It is not clear if Russia would use its veto power on the Security Council against such a move. Russia has faced persistent criticism for its peacekeepers’ inaction in the blockade.

“Russia, responsible for peacekeeping in Nagorno-Karabakh, and the US, promoting current negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, are state parties of the Genocide Convention. ... They have a privileged position to prevent this genocide. Their intense confrontation due to the Ukrainian conflict should not transform the Armenians into collateral victims,” Ocampo wrote.

___​

Associated Press writers Jim Heintz in Tallinn, Estonia, and Aida Sultanova in London contributed to this report.
 
P

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane
I believe that Russia is holding back on full support of Armenia because the Prime Minister is a Soros puppet.

en.m.wikipedia.org

Nikol Pashinyan - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

A journalist by profession, Pashinyan founded his own newspaper in 1998, which was shut down a year later for libel. He was sentenced for one year for defamation against then Minister of National Security Serzh Sargsyan. He edited the newspaper Haykakan Zhamanak ("Armenian Times") from 1999 to 2012. A supporter of Armenia's first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan, he was highly critical of second president Robert Kocharyan, Defense Minister Serzh Sargsyan, and their allies, frequently referring to them as the "Karabakh Clan".[1][2][3] Pashinyan was also critical of Armenia's close relations with Russia, and promoted establishing closer relations with Turkey instead.[4] He led a minor opposition party in the 2007 parliamentary election, garnering 1.3% of the vote.

Pashinyan was a dedicated supporter of Ter-Petrosyan, who made a political comeback prior to the 2008 presidential election, before losing to Serzh Sargsyan. Despite Ter-Petrosyan being a very unpopular figure and several international observers deeming the election to be fair,[5][6] Pashinyan claimed voter fraud and incited protestors to attack police in the post-election protests on 1 March 2008, resulting in the deaths of ten people. Convicted of organizing mass disorders, he went into hiding until mid-2009. He was sentenced to seven years in prison for his role in the protests. He was released in May 2011 as part of a general amnesty. He was elected to parliament from Ter-Petrosyan's broad opposition coalition, the Armenian National Congress, in 2012.

Pashinyan later distanced himself from Ter-Petrosyan on political grounds, establishing the party Civil Contract. Along with two other opposition parties, Pashinyan formed the Way Out Alliance which garnered almost 8% of the vote in the 2017 parliamentary election. He was the leader of the 2018 Armenian revolution which forced Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan and his government to resign. He was elected acting prime minister by parliament on 8 May 2018 and won snap parliamentary elections in December 2018.[7][8] Pashinyan's victory had originally been heralded by some observers as an improvement in democracy,[9] while others have criticized Pashinyan as a mere populist.[10] Pashinyan's new government included multiple liberal western NGO activists being appointed to senior positions,[11] as well as supporters from the Velvet Revolution who had no previous political experience.[12][13]

Pashinyan led Armenia through the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, the most recent and significant outbreak of violence due to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia with the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh and its neighbor Azerbaijan. The war, which was ended after 44 days of fighting by a trilateral ceasefire agreement signed by Pashinyan on 9 November 2020, resulted in significant human, material and territorial losses for the Armenian side. Pashinyan's government was criticized within Armenia for its management of the war.[14] Following the war, Pashinyan was accused of being a traitor and faced protests and calls for his resignation for signing the Russian-brokered truce with Azerbaijan.[15] Despite the protests and a declaration by 40 high-ranking military officers calling for his resignation (which Pashinyan described as a coup attempt), Pashinyan resisted calls to hand over political power.[16][17] On 25 April 2021, Pashinyan announced his formal resignation to allow snap elections to be held in June, although he remained as acting prime minister in the leadup to the elections.[18] His party won the 2021 election, receiving more than half of all votes.[19]
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
unfortunately, it seems those conflicts that get slow rolled and have plenty of foreshadowing are ones that actually take place, so... another push pin soon added to the war map I'm guessing : (


Nagorno Karabakh Observer
@NKobserver

We have reason to believe there is a serious threat of war with #Azerbaijan carrying out another incursion in #Armenia (this time from both sides), and possibly #NagornoKarabakh. The deterrence capacity of Armenian and Karabakhi forces is presumed low. Very dangerous situation.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1700298723224662441
View: https://twitter.com/NKobserver/status/1700298723224662441?s=20
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Iran International English
@IranIntl_En
12h

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi had a phone conversation with Armenian Prime Minister @NikolPashinyan, as the US and Armenia prepare to hold joint military exercises in coming days. In the phone call, Raisi stressed that any change to geographical boundaries is Iran’s red line.

In the Saturday phone call, Iran's president expressed the Islamic Republic's readiness as a neighboring power to play a constructive role in preventing further conflicts and preserving the geopolitical stability of the region, amid tensions in Caucasus.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1700650798382829723
View: https://twitter.com/IranIntl_En/status/1700650798382829723?s=20
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Nagorno Karabakh Observer
@NKobserver
6h

Non-official reports of #Azerbaijan concentrating troops along line-of-contact with #NagornoKarabakh, in Martakert region.

Reports of lorries from NK defence forces going to/from Stepanakert to Askeran (near the line-of-contact in the east).

Keep watch of the situation.

Nagorno Karabakh Observer
@NKobserver

BREAKING - #NagornoKarabakh defence forces put on high alert a few hours ago.

No direct indications of imminent war breaking out, just the normal ceasefire violation reports that have become the new norm. We'll provide updates as the situation develops.

1:26 PM · Sep 16, 2023
15.1K
Views
 
P

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Azerbaijan Launches Major 'Ground Operation' In Karabakh Against Armenians | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

Azerbaijan Launches Major 'Ground Operation' In Karabakh Against Armenians​


BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, SEP 19, 2023 - 09:55 AM
Azerbaijan's military has attacked areas of Nagorno-Karabakh under Armenian control in a major action which shatters the unsteady regional peace in a significant first since the 2020 war which lasted for six weeks.

Karabakh representatives have said a "large-scale military offensive" is targeting Armenian holdouts, and have accused Azeri forces of having "violated the ceasefire along the entire line of contact with missile-artillery strikes."
Azerbaijani checkpoint at the entry of the Lachin corridor, the Nagorno-Karabakh region's only land link with Armenia, via AFP

But Azerbaijan's defense ministry has blamed Armenian forces for provocations, citing "systematic shelling" of Azeri army positions. Baku has dubbed this an operation against "local, anti-terrorist activities... to disarm and secure the withdrawal of formations of Armenia's armed forces from our territories."

"Air raid sirens and mortar fire were heard in Karabakh's main city," BBC writes, noting that a fragile ceasefire collapsed especially after "eleven Azerbaijani police and civilians have been reported killed in a mine blast and another incident."

Moscow is monitoring the situation closely, given some 2-3,000 Russian peacekeepers have been in the region as part of the post-war settlement that emerged after 2020. But lately Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had complained that Russian forces were "spontaneously leaving the region".

Armenia has said that so far the fighting has not spilled over into its own borders, saying that within the borders things are "relatively stable".

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1704072884606455945
View: https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1704072884606455945?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1704072884606455945%7Ctwgr%5E32757922adb5d161f9faa0eb82d9098196420849%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fazerbaijan-launches-major-ground-operation-karabakh-against-armenians


Azerbaijan has stood accused of seeking to conduct a slow genocide of ethnic Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region by cutting off food, medicine, and humanitarian aid.

One regional journalist, Paul Antonopoulos, has written that "After starving Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh for 9 months, Azerbaijan launched another vicious attack to terrorize the indigenous population."



There has been sporadic flare-ups in cross-border shooting going back to 2020 and 2021. Before that, the conflict hearkened back to post-Soviet times.

Christian Armenia and Muslim Azerbaijan fought a war at that time in which at least 200 people were killed over Armenian ethnic breakaway Nagorno Karabakh, which declared independence in 1991, despite being internationally recognized as within Azerbaijan territory.


The first war for the territory finished in 1994, but the region has been militarized since, amid sporadic shelling. Turkey has tended to be Azerbaijan's most powerful supporter, also given Azeris are ethnic Turks. Israel has also supplied Baku with advanced military equipment, especially drones.

*****
More tweets at the link.
 
P

Plain Jane

Just Plain Jane

Oil Prices Hit 10 Month Highs As Azerbaijan Military Action Threatens New War | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com www.zerohedge.com

Oil Prices Hit 10 Month Highs As Azerbaijan Military Action Threatens New War​


BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, SEP 19, 2023 - 12:05 PM
By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com
Oil prices rose for yet another day early on Tuesday, with Brent hitting $95 per barrel, as Azerbaijan said it had launched “anti-terrorist” operations in the Nagorno-Karabakh region with mostly Armenian population.

The Azerbaijan-Armenia tensions have been rising in recent months after Azerbaijan imposed a blockade on the ethnic Armenian region also known as Artsakh by Armenians but internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.

Last week, for the first time in three months, Nagorno-Karabakh received aid via Azerbaijan's Aghdam route, while Azerbaijan continues to block the Lachin corridor connecting the region to Armenia.

Today, Azerbaijan’s defense ministry said that “local anti-terrorist activities have been launched” “to disarm and secure the withdrawal of formations of Armenia’s armed forces from our territories, neutralize their military infrastructure.” Azerbaijan said Armenia’s armed forces targeted a vehicle with a land mine, killing two civilians.

Armenia, for its part, accused Azerbaijan of spreading false information in claiming that there are Armenian military, equipment and personnel in Nagorno-Karabakh. As of 2 p.m. local time on Tuesday, “the situation on the borders of the Republic of Armenia is relatively stable,” Armenia’s ministry of defense said.

Azerbaijan is an oil and gas producer and exporter and is part of the OPEC+ alliance of producers as a non-OPEC participant in the group currently withholding oil supply to the market.

While tensions in the restive Azerbaijan-Armenia region rise, oil prices were also up on Tuesday morning ET, with Brent topping $95 per barrel, the highest in 10 months, and WTI Crude up by 1.3% at $92.50.

“A 15% rally in the space of around three weeks to trade at levels not seen since last November and not far from triple figures, it’s been an impressive move and there could be more to come,” Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, wrote in a note on Monday.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
MAKS 23
@Maks_NAFO_FELLA
16h

⚡️"Azerbaijan has coordinated military operations in Artsakh [Nagorno-Karabakh] with Russia", - the statement said

"Peacekeepers" from Russia, in violation of all agreements, will not interfere...

P.S. Knife in the back of Armenia from Russia
 
jward

jward

passin' thru





Clash Report
@clashreport

Azerbaijani MoD sent SMS to the phones of civilians in Karabakh: We call on civilians in the region to stay away from military installations and not to support the units of the Armenian armed forces.

In order to evacuate the Armenian population from the danger zone, humanitarian corridors and reception points were opened along the Lachin road and in other directions. Women, children, elderly people, as well as people with disabilities and the sick will be provided with the necessary medical care, they will be provided with drinking water and food. The protection and security of administrative, social, educational, medical, religious and other facilities will be organized, the safety of which is guaranteed in accordance with the laws of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the norms of international humanitarian law.


5:43 AM · Sep 19, 2023
·
38.8K
Views
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Neil Hauer
@NeilPHauer
16h

Azerbaijan has launched a new war in Nagorno-Karabakh. Below is their statement announcing it. Multiple videos show artillery bombardment of Stepanakert. It is here.

1695177061876.jpeg
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Clash Report
@clashreport
9h

#BREAKING A coup is brewing in Armenia.

One of the opposition leaders Andranik Tevanyan called for overthrowing the government, and there are clashes between protesters and police.

All the while Azerbaijani armed forces are destroying the Armenian Armed Forces in Karabakh.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Clash Report
@clashreport

Turkish President Erdogan:

Karabakh is the territory of Azerbaijan.

The imposition of a status other than this will never be accepted.

We have supported the negotiation process between Azerbaijan and Armenia from the beginning. However, we see that Armenia has failed to take advantage of this historic opportunity.

We expect Armenia to fulfill its promises, especially the opening of the Zangezur Corridor.

Our primary goal should be for everyone, including Armenians, to live side by side in peace on Azerbaijani territory.

We support the steps taken by Azerbaijan, which we act with the motto of "one nation, two states", to preserve its territorial integrity.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Azerbaijan...
The National Independent@NationalIndNews
#BREAKING #Azerbaijan #Armenia JUST IN: Azerbaijan is threatening to launch a full-scale ground operation in Nagorno-Karabakh tomorrow if the authorities do not announce their surrender.
 
AlfaMan

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
jward said:
Azerbaijan...
The National Independent@NationalIndNews
#BREAKING #Azerbaijan #Armenia JUST IN: Azerbaijan is threatening to launch a full-scale ground operation in Nagorno-Karabakh tomorrow if the authorities do not announce their surrender.
Click to expand...
Ugh. Another country in that part of the world going to war. Just what the world needs.

Seems Turkey is backing the Azerbaijanis in a big way too. They murdered enough Armenians over the last century or so....
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Nagorno Karabakh Observer
@NKobserver

Fresh reports of Martuni city mayor killed in fighting in #NagornoKarabakh, and unconfirmed news of 4th century Amaras monastery coming under #Azerbaijan' control.

Source: https://news.am/arm/news/78192

Nagorno Karabakh Observer
@NKobserver
14m

News of Armenian 4th century monastery Amaras now under #Azerbaijan's military control, Azeri advances noted in #NagornoKarabakh's Martuni area area.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Clash Report
@clashreport

#BREAKING Azerbaijani MoD confirms Armenia-backed separatist regime in Karabakh has surrendered. 1. Formations of the armed forces of Armenia and illegal Armenian armed formations located in the Karabakh region of the Republic of Azerbaijan lay down their arms, leave combat positions and military posts and completely disarm. Units of the Armenian armed forces are leaving the territory of Azerbaijan, illegal Armenian armed formations are being disbanded.

2. At the same time, all weapons and heavy equipment are surrendered. 3. The implementation of the above processes is ensured in coordination with the Russian peacekeeping contingent.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Clash Report
@clashreport

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev:

Armenia unexpectedly showed political competence. We appreciate it. We see this as an important step. The events will have a positive impact on the peace process.

The results of anti-terrorist measures will allow the obstacle to peace negotiations to be removed. This will create long-term peace in the South Caucasus.

They should also be sure that we have no eyes on their land.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Peter Zeihan
@PeterZeihan
3h

I have so many questions.
But should this actually be true – if Azerbaijan really did just conquer Nagano Karabakh - then the Russian position within even the former Soviet union is undoubtedly teetering on the precipice.

Azerbaijan halts Karabakh offensive after ceasefire deal with Armenian separatists​


By Paul Kirby


Russia said it had evacuated 2,000 ethnic Armenians from villages near the fighting
Azerbaijan's president has declared that his country's sovereignty has been restored over Nagorno-Karabakh after a 24-hour military offensive against ethnic-Armenian forces.
Ilham Aliyev praised the heroism of Azerbaijan's army hours after Karabakh forces agreed to surrender.
Some 120,000 ethnic Armenians live in the South Caucasus enclave, recognised internationally as part of Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan now intends to bring the breakaway region under full control.
Its military launched an "anti-terror" operation on Tuesday, demanding that Karabakh's forces raise a white flag and dissolve their "illegal regime". With no means of support from neighbouring Armenia, and after an effective nine-month blockade, the ethnic Armenians soon gave in.

Armenian officials reported that at least 32 people were killed, including seven civilians, and another 200 wounded. However according to a separatist Armenian human rights official, at least 200 people were killed and more than 400 wounded. The BBC has not been able to verify any of the figures.
On Wednesday evening, Armenian officials accused Azerbaijan of opening fire on troops near the town of Sotk on the border between the two countries after the ceasefire had been agreed, but Azerbaijan immediately denied the claims.
Earlier in the day, thousands of protesters took to the streets of Yerevan, the Armenian capital, to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan for his handling of the crisis.

Azerbaijan's army said it had captured more than 90 positions from the ethnic Armenians before both sides announced that a complete cessation of hostilities had been agreed through Russian peacekeepers, starting at 13:00 local time (09:00 GMT) on Wednesday.
Under the terms of the truce, outlined by Azerbaijan and Russia, which has peacekeepers on the ground, local Karabakh forces must commit to being completely disbanded as well as disarmed.
There is also a commitment to Armenian forces pulling out, even though its government denies having any military presence there.
Azerbaijan's presidency said officials would meet Karabakh's Armenian representatives for talks on "issues of re-integration" in the Azerbaijani town of Yevlakh on Thursday. President Aliyev said Azerbaijanis had nothing against the population, only their "criminal junta".
Yevlakh is some 100km (60 miles) north of Karabakh's regional capital, Khankendi, known as Stepanakert by Armenians.
Image source, Artsakh Public TV
Image caption,
Women and children are among the 32 dead and 200 wounded in Karabakh, local authorities say

Civilians flee to airport​


Marut Vanyan, a journalist in Karabakh, said many families had spent Tuesday night in basements: "I didn't sleep and I didn't eat. It's calm now but it's a strange feeling. Right now, what we need to do is stop this bloodshed and understand what to do next."
Russia said its peacekeepers had evacuated 5,000 people from dangerous areas since the offensive had begun, the country's Interfax news agency reported.
As the ceasefire was announced, Karabakh officials appealed to residents to remain in shelters and not to leave for the local airport, adjacent to a Russian peacekeeping base. However, a crowd of civilians had soon gathered close to the airport and as darkness fell hours later it was unclear what support they would have.
Caucasus specialist Thomas de Waal of Carnegie Europe said the terms of the ceasefire and the coming talks were very much on Azerbaijan's terms and left ethnic Armenians looking unprotected.
"This looks like the end of a 35-year-old project, some would say a century-old project, of the Armenians of Karabakh to secede from Azerbaijan," he told the BBC.
"We're probably, unfortunately, seeing a project whereby the Azerbaijanis offer so little to the Karabakh Armenians that most if not all of them will leave."
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan made clear his government was not involved in the ceasefire text and demanded that Russian peacekeepers take full responsibility for the safety of the local population. On Tuesday he accused Azerbaijan of "ethnic cleansing" in Karabakh.
Azerbaijan's presidential envoy Elchin Amirbekov told the BBC that Russian peacekeepers had helped facilitate the ceasefire: "I think they have to be counted on for the implementation part."

An ongoing crisis​


Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia and its neighbour have fought two wars over Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous, landlocked region in the south-west of Azerbaijan.
The six-week war in 2020 led to several thousand deaths but enabled Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, to recapture territory surrounding and inside the enclave, leaving the ethnic Armenians isolated.
For the past nine months, Azerbaijan has conducted an effective blockade of the only road into Karabakh from Armenia, known as the Lachin Corridor. Ethnic Armenians in the enclave complained of shortages of food, medicines and toiletries and Armenia was unable to help.
Although some aid was allowed through in recent days, the Karabakh Armenians were very much weakened by the shortages by the time of the Azerbaijani offensive, with little hope of external support.
Some 2,000 Russian peacekeepers were supposed to monitor the 2020 ceasefire but Moscow's interest in Armenia has waned during its war in Ukraine, even though Armenia is part of Russia's CSTO military alliance.
Last May, the Armenian prime minister was quoted as saying his country would be ready to recognise Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan in return for the security of the ethnic Armenian population.
"The 86,600 sq km of Azerbaijan's territory includes Nagorno-Karabakh," Mr Pashinyan was quoted as saying, referring to Azerbaijan as a whole.
Russia has also been annoyed by Mr Pashinyan's apparent pivot to the West.
Earlier this month his wife Anna Hakobyan shook hands with Ukraine's president at a conference in Kyiv, and this week, dozens of Armenian and US soldiers took part in military exercises together.
The Kremlin has denied Armenian allegations that it did not do enough to help its ally.
President Vladimir Putin said only last week that Russia had no problems with Armenia's prime minister, but added: "If Armenia itself recognised that Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan, what should we do?"
Hundreds of protesters in Yerevan called for the prime minister to resign on Tuesday because of his handling of the crisis and he warned of unidentified forces calling for a coup.

Armenia-Azerbaijan: Nagorno-Karabakh map​

www.bbc.com

Azerbaijan halts Karabakh offensive after ceasefire deal with Armenian separatists

Ethnic Armenian separatists agree to disband and give up their weapons as part of a ceasefire.
www.bbc.com
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top