WAR Abrams Tanks going to Uke have some config issues with the classified armor

[Wildweasel]

I figured I'd post these here to keep the main Russo-Ukraine War thread as uncluttered as possible...HC

Inside German Leopard Tank Sent to Ukraine​

RT 14:19

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p69gZ9HWVnI&ab_channel=Task%26Purpose
1,906 Comments

Could be the same thing that lets rebels in Yemen knock out Saudi Abrams tanks: blocking safety systems because it's more convenient to leave the blast shield separating ammo storage from crew space.

So when there's a hit that would be survived in a US Abrams with the blast shield closed, a hit that sets off the ammo doesn't blow out blast panels on the ammo storage space to save the crew, it goes through the blast shield opening and kills the crew and often blows the turret off the tank.

That's because on Soviet tanks those armies previously operated, ammo storage was inside the crew space and there is no separation between crew space and ammo storage. That is, until Russia's new tank designs copied western tanks to increase crew safety by separating and crew.

Whether or not Russian and export crews use that feature is yet to be seen. But Russian military leadership seeing so many Soviet made tanks with turrets blown off during Desert Storm convinced them that their new tank designs needed to include ammo and crew separation.

 

[Wildweasel]

I can recall the shock when an M1 was destroyed by an IED in Iraq. I later learned it was from an EFP, or explosively formed projectile.

Weren't a couple knocked out by IEDs consisting of two or three 155mm rounds that went off under them?

There were rumors that the EFP round was recovered inside the tank after riding around inside the turret and after it was analyzed warnings were sent to a "friendly nation" whom it was determined was "field testing" a new EFP antitank round against our armor in Iraq.

I'm surprised there wasn't an "intentional friendly fire incident" against the troops the "friendly nation" had in Iraq as a lesson.

 

[Warthog]

NATO, NATO, what good is it. Always the United States.

Steal our money is the only thing their good for.

 

[jward]

Russian Robot Maker Working On Bot to Target Abrams, Leopard Tanks​

Patrick Tucker

16–21 minutes

---

Still from promotional video of the MARKER ground robot from Russian firm Andriod, Via Novosti RIA Novosti.

A Russian manufacturer says it is adapting one of its ground robots to target Abrams and Leopard tanks—the types heading to Ukraine from the United States, Germany, Poland and other countries.
Dmitry Rogozin, a former head of of the Russian space corporation Roscosmos and current head of the “Royal Wolves” group, which advises the Russian government, took to Telegram on Wednesday to announce that his group was working with the Advanced Research Foundation and a company called Android Technology to develop a combat version of Android’s Marker ground reconnaissance robot.

“Everyone agrees that our strike [version] of the Marker, before the arrival of the Abrams and Leopards in Ukraine, should be prepared for their destruction,” Rogozin posted.
In an interview published by Russian news site RIA Novosti, Rogozin said the Marker would “be able to automatically detect and hit the ‘Abrams’, ‘Leopard’ and other vehicles due to the electronic catalog in the control system with images of enemy equipment.”
In 2018, Android made headlines with a claim that it would put a robotic cosmonaut named FEDOR onto the International Space Station. That hasn’t happened.
Russia is unlikely to field ground combat robots to Ukraine in large numbers, said Sam Bendett, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and an adviser at the CNA Corporation.

“It appears that most of the existing Markers, 3 out of 5, will in fact be tested in Ukraine, and can be lost in combat,” Bendett said via email. “It also appears that Android Technology is actually ok with that, indicating a willingness to respond to the [Ministry of Defense] needs for improved weapons and tactics, and perhaps indicating that the company is working on other projects that can build on the Marker experience.”
How well would a Russian robot perform against a well-trained human tank crew? On Twitter, Bendett expressed skepticism, calling the announcement mostly a PR stunt.
“Previous Marker tests - at least those made public - were against small UAVs, and these [unmanned ground vehicles, or UGVs] conducted tests for orienting in a complex space like a forest, but not an actual battlefield where multiple countermeasures are trying to destroy the vehicle. Moreover, Western tanks will be part of combined arms formations with aerial support like drones and UAVs, which are going to hunt for any Russian target, including the likes of Marker ground vehicles. Rogozin's earlier claims of Marker as a recon UGV were more realistic.”

UGV makers, like most Russian technology firms, are somewhat hampered by Western efforts to stop the flow of computer components to Russia. But these sanctions have had uneven effects, according to a report out this week from the Silverado Policy Accelerator.
Android’s CEO Evgeny Dudorov said last month that technology sanctions have had little impact on his company’s ability to score key component parts, according to Bendett.
“Dudorov thinks that investments from the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade will allow the domestic robotics industry to catch up with the leading players in about 1.5-2 years, and fully align with the market leaders in 10-12 years,” he said.

Bendett called Dudorov’s assessment “optimistic” given “the continued reliance of the Russian high-tech sector on imported components. Dudorov’s FEDOR robot was in fact almost 80% made from imported parts.”

---

The U.S. military can’t deal effectively with China’s moves in the Pacific unless it improves its ties with tech firms, the head of the Pentagon’s innovation arm said.
“Any type of adversarial activity in the INDOPACOM [area of responsibility] is probably going to occur on a timeline where we won't be able to generate solutions organically and the department,” said Mike Madsen, the acting director of the Defense Innovation Unit. “We need to have that in-place relationship with the commercial ecosystem to get those solutions as quickly as possible.”

After Russia invaded Ukraine, for example, DIU contractor Capella Space was able to use its satellite imagery to observe Russian forces. “We were able to use that commercial, widely available technology, put it out there to the world and say, ‘hey, look…here is the photographic evidence that's available to anyone to see that’,” Madsen said.
Deepening and expanding relationships across the defense and military is a top priority for the agency this year, especially as the pace of war—and the preparation for it—virtually demands the Pentagon use existing commercial technology wherever possible.

In its drive to forge and deepen Pentagon-tech industry ties, the agency has opened an office in Chicago and is boosting its regional presence. One event targeted North Carolina, yielding a seven-fold increase in submissions of proposals from companies in the state and about $4 million in contracts, Madsen said.
“So while we don't have an office in North Carolina by doing these regional outreaches from our offices, we're still able to get the benefits of getting the best technology across America, not just focused on the traditional tech centers, but rather finding the best technology across the country,” the acting director said.
Just under half of DIU prototyping contracts yield products that go on to be used by the military services or other Defense agencies, according to its annual report, released Wednesday.

Such products meet three criteria: “the technology has to work, there has to be a contract mechanism in place by our DOD partner and there has to be funding available for that technology,” Madsen said.
In fiscal year 2022, DIU turned 17 prototype contracts into products ordered by other Defense agencies to the tune of $1.3 billion. That doubled its 2021 effort and brought DIU’s total to 52 follow-on contracts to 48 companies worth a total of $4.9 billion. Sixteen of those technologies have become programs of record. The agency awarded 81 new prototype contracts worth about $205 million in fiscal 2022.
This year, DIU wants to bump that transition rate to 60 percent. To do so, the office is trying to spread the word among DOD program managers about its commercial tech options inAI and machine learning, autonomy, cyber and telecommunications, human systems, space, and energy.
“We're working with the PEOs, the program executive offices, across the department so that we can be part of their acquisition strategy development,” Madsen said. “So that we can advocate in great detail, what is available in the commercial sector, what is the current state of the art of all those technology areas that we can pull in. And develop on ramps much, much earlier in the process.”

DIU is also working with the Pentagon’s office of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation, or CAPE, to look at what’s needed and what’s available before budgets are constructed. That collaboration could illuminate DOD’s current commercial tech investment, funding needs, and where scaling tech could help. That more synchronized effort could help the Defense Department modernize faster.
“Before we even get into budget development, just looking at the strategic portfolios and understanding what the current state of that commercial technology is, how that can play into that funding part of it as well,” Madsen said. “So we're getting involved much much earlier in that process to gain the benefits for scaling then on the backside of it.”

Russian Robot Maker Working On Bot to Target Abrams, Leopard Tanks

But is it all just a PR stunt?

www.defenseone.com

 

[Housecarl]

I figured I'd start/restart the discussion here instead of on the main Russo-Ukraine War thread.....

ALERT - RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

ELINT News Retweeted Special Kherson Cat @bayraktar_1love · 52m Germany has granted an export license for Leopard 1 main battle tanks to . According to SPIEGEL, there are 29 largely refurbished models...

www.timebomb2000.com

ALERT - RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

ELINT News Retweeted Special Kherson Cat @bayraktar_1love · 52m Germany has granted an export license for Leopard 1 main battle tanks to . According to SPIEGEL, there are 29 largely refurbished models...

www.timebomb2000.com

Tank Chats #64 Leopard 1 | The Tank Museum​

RT 15:47

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9uMqBO5lrhI&ab_channel=TheTankMuseum

T-72 vs Leopard 1A5: Trash vs Quality?​

RT 17:11

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxNFXIur5Co&ab_channel=MilitaryHistoryVisualized

Leopard 1s for Ukraine: Still useful?​

RT 16:53

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYZfvi0Ab78&ab_channel=MilitaryHistoryVisualized

 

[bev]

Every time I see the title of this thread, “Abrams tank,” I immediately picture Stacey.

 

[Housecarl]

Posted for fair use.....

Germany Now Wants To Send Cold War-Era Leopard 1 Tanks To Ukraine

The Leopard 1s are the latest tanks to be offered to Ukraine, but Germany first needs to secure sufficient ammunition for them.

www.thedrive.com

Germany Now Wants To Send Cold War-Era Leopard 1 Tanks To Ukraine​

The Leopard 1s are the latest tanks to be offered to Ukraine, but Germany first needs to secure sufficient ammunition for them.
BY THOMAS NEWDICK | PUBLISHED FEB 3, 2023 2:07 PM

A little over a week after the German government finally announced it will deliver Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, as well as issue licenses for the transfer of other Leopard 2s from partner countries, Berlin is set to approve the delivery of this tank’s predecessor to Kyiv. The Cold War-era Leopard 1 is no longer used by the German Army but significant numbers are available from storage depots. However, the issue of securing ammunition for the older tank’s 105mm rifled main gun could be difficult to resolve.

A spokesman for the German government, Steffen Hebestreit, told a news conference in Berlin today that it now wants to add Leopard 1s to its broader effort to strengthen military support for Kyiv, by issuing an export license. However, despite this intention, the formal approval for the supply of Leopard 1s has apparently yet to be signed off, according to the Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper, which cites unnamed government officials.

A preserved German Army Leopard 1A5 takes part in a dynamic demonstration during a military open day in Dillingen an der Donau, in 2019. Bundeswehr/Jonas Weber
An undisclosed number of Leopard 1s would be drawn from the stocks held by defense contractor Rheinmetall. According to Germany’s Spiegel news magazine, the plan involves 29 tanks, although the source of this figure is not disclosed.

The tanks, which have not been used by the German Army for years, would require refurbishment before being delivered, which would be completed by a specialist in this field, the Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft (FFG). The extent of the work required is not clear at this point.

As to the numbers of Leopard 1s that could eventually be supplied to Ukraine, these could potentially be larger than the initial tranche of ex-German Army Leopard 2s to which Berlin has committed. Last week, the German government decided to supply 14 Leopard 2s from its own stocks to Ukraine. That number will, however, be boosted by Leopard 2s transferred by other European allies.

According to a Rheinmetall official, speaking to the Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland news agency, the company could deliver as many as 88 Leopard 1s, as well as 22 Leopard 2s from its own stocks. While Rheinmetall has said that these Leopard 2s could be provided within a year, it’s not said how long it would take to prepare and supply the Leopard 1s.

A view into the turret of a preserved former German Army Leopard 1A5 tank, including a 105mm round for the main gun, in the German Tank Museum in Munster. Photo by Philipp Schulze/picture alliance via Getty Images

The idea of delivering Leopard 1s to Ukraine is not entirely new. As early as April 2022, then-Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, Andrij Melnyk, reportedly undertook talks directly with Rheinmetall. The company’s offer at that time involved 88 Leopard 1A5s with the 105mm L7A3 gun, plus technical documentation manuals, basic training in Germany, training for overhaul, spare parts, and 3,500 rounds of 105mm ammunition. The total value was 115.2 million euros, or around $125 million, at the current exchange rate.

However, with Berlin long being unwilling to approve transfers of tanks, this deal remained unfulfilled.
But plans for a renewed transfer effort could be frustrated or at least slowed down by the main armament of the Leopard 1. According to Spiegel, “the problem of procuring ammunition is becoming increasingly urgent.”
Another report in the Süddeutsche Zeitung claims that Brazilian officials have already refused a request from the German government to sell it ammunition for the Leopard 1. The Brazilian Army continues to operate the Leopard 1A1 and 1A5 as its primary main battle tanks, with around 250 examples originally having been bought.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1618469477221552128

View: https://twitter.com/beto_caiafa/status/1618469477221552128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1618469477221552128%7Ctwgr%5E78125ec06c2b2c00f0be677299f0d98ef77202c1%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Fgermany-now-wants-to-send-cold-war-era-leopard-1-tanks-to-ukraine


The German request was reportedly turned down on January 20, in the course of a meeting attended by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the then-Chief of the Armed Forces Gen. Júlio Cesar de Arruda, and Minister of Defense José Mucio. President Lula, who only recently took office, has so far sought to preserve Brazil’s cordial relations with Russia. At the same time, however, the SPD party of the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also sees Lula as a close ally, with the ammunition issue potentially leading to a rift.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (right) and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (left) take part in a meeting in Brasilia, on January 30, 2023. Photo by SERGIO LIMA/AFP via Getty Images

The Brazilian government has also refused to transfer stocks of 35mm ammunition for the German-made Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft gun (SPAAG). Germany has already transferred 37 examples of the Gepard to Ukraine and the system has reportedly achieved considerable success in its air defense role.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1616538067891879953

View: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1616538067891879953?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1616538067891879953%7Ctwgr%5E78125ec06c2b2c00f0be677299f0d98ef77202c1%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Fgermany-now-wants-to-send-cold-war-era-leopard-1-tanks-to-ukraine


While long out of production, the Leopard 1 served as the main West German main battle tank for most of the 1960s and 1970s, before being superseded by the Leopard 2, which has a new 120mm main gun. The last German Leopard 1s were withdrawn in 2003.

Despite its age, the Leopard 1 remains in limited service around the world, with operators in its original role including Brazil, Chile, Greece, and Turkey. Meanwhile, specialist versions of the Leopard 1, including armored recovery, bridge-layer, and combat engineer models, are more widely used, including by Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom.

A soldier poses on top of a Leopard 1 tank ahead of the military parade in Athens in 2015. Photo by Michael Debets/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images

Potentially, Leopard 1s and related variants could also be made available from some of these sources, as part of a broader collaborative effort to get them into Ukrainian hands, the same kind of initiative that is now expediting the Leopard 2 transfer. Further Leopard 1s could also be drawn from private contractors, like the OIP company in Belgium, which reportedly had around 50 of the tanks in its stocks as of this year.

Leopard 1 tank hulls, with their turrets stored separately, at the depot of the Belgian defense company OIP in Tournai, Belgium, on February 2, 2023. Photo by Thierry Monasse/Getty Images

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1621216280433889283

View: https://twitter.com/richardgaisford/status/1621216280433889283?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1621216426181758977%7Ctwgr%5E78125ec06c2b2c00f0be677299f0d98ef77202c1%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Fgermany-now-wants-to-send-cold-war-era-leopard-1-tanks-to-ukraine


In fact, 10 examples of the Leopard 1-derived Bergepanzer 2 armored recovery vehicle have already been delivered to Ukraine by Germany, with the potential for more and different specialist versions of the tank to be provided in the future.
Meanwhile, the Wisent 1 armored engineering vehicle, also based on the Leopard 1 chassis, is headed to Ukraine, too. Last week, U.K. defense contractor Pearson Engineering said it would be providing Ukraine this year with a “large quantity” of Full Width Mine Ploughs for integration on Wisent 1 vehicles. The Wisent 1 was developed to “flexibly, cost-effectively, efficiently and economically support the Leopard 2 main battle tank and other vehicles,” according to FFG, the firm that developed it.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1618164981803126786

View: https://twitter.com/JonHawkes275/status/1618164981803126786?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1618164981803126786%7Ctwgr%5E78125ec06c2b2c00f0be677299f0d98ef77202c1%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Fgermany-now-wants-to-send-cold-war-era-leopard-1-tanks-to-ukraine


The issue of securing ammunition, especially of older types, has come up repeatedly as Ukraine’s allies try and provide it with sufficient stocks. With the Gepard, the decision has been taken to set up a new ammunition production line in Germany.

It’s not clear if that might also be a possibility for the 105mm rounds, too, although there is generally lower demand for this type of ammunition anyway. That might lead Germany to look elsewhere, perhaps attempting to secure additional 105mm ammunition from Greece or Turkey, for example.

View: https://youtu.be/YVlHld8YrFs


Until Berlin can guarantee a reliable source of ammunition for the Leopard 1, it remains possible that Ukraine will turn down the offer, despite its repeated demands for heavy armor, especially with a widely expected spring offensive that may well be critical to the outcome of the war.

While old, the Leopard 1 can undeniably still play a useful role on the battlefield, even if it were to be held back from the most critical offensives. Ukraine has also been willing to accept other older tanks, with several nations having provided Soviet-era tanks like the T-72, with the United States footing the bill for some of them.

There is still a question about how long it would take to deliver the Cold War-era Leopard 1s to Ukraine, but even more concerning is a possible ammunition bottleneck, especially as Brazil appears unwilling to move on the issue.

Overall, the story demonstrates again the importance of logistics and supply chains to Ukraine’s continued fighting ability. While much of the discourse, at the government level, as well as in the media, has focused on what types of weapons could or should be supplied to Kyiv, and what difference they could make, the saga of the Leopard 1 reveals just how easily such plans can be threatened as particular ammunition stocks become scarce.

Contact the author: thomas@thedrive.com

Conversation 265 Comments​

 

[day late]

So, not a tank expert.

The current version uses a ceramic armor, the prior version uses a DU armor that is classified?
Why would the old version be the one they are trying to keep secret and not the current one?

When we sell "mill" equipment to other countries we usually don't sell the latest and greatest or am I missing something?

I was a T.O.W. Gunner. Tanks have three main weaknesses.

1. Once 'buttoned up', ie everyone is inside, the ability to see is reduced by up to 70%.
2. Fire.
3. 'Dragons Teeth' or similar. The Dragons Teeth are those concrete pyramids you see in old WW II films. Tanks get up on them, then lose traction and become a very vulnerable roadblock.

Edit To Add:

I can not believe what I just saw in the post by Housecarl. The M-113 is STILL in service? That thing came out in 196...what? Or was it the late 50's?

 

[Housecarl]

I was a T.O.W. Gunner. Tanks have three main weaknesses.

1. Once 'buttoned up', ie everyone is inside, the ability to see is reduced by up to 70%.
2. Fire.
3. 'Dragons Teeth' or similar. The Dragons Teeth are those concrete pyramids you see in old WW II films. Tanks get up on them, then lose traction and become a very vulnerable roadblock.

Edit To Add:

I can not believe what I just saw in the post by Housecarl. The M-113 is STILL in service? That thing came out in 196...what? Or was it the late 50's?

Yup, the M-113 entered service with the US Army in 1960....

 

[jward]

Norway selects winner of main battle tank competition​

By Dylan Malyasov​

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Norway has selected German-made Leopard 2A7 as its next main battle tank following an evaluation process to replace its fleet of Leopard 2A4s.

The Norwegian Ministry of Defense has announced that it has decided to procure 54 new, modern Leopard 2A7 battle tanks, with a possibility of an additional 18 tanks.
“The first new tanks are expected to be delivered in 2026 and will be phased in by 2031,” the news release says.

Norway’s program for new tanks is worth 19.7 Norwegian crowns ($1.93 billion), according to a defense spokesperson.

#Norway has decided to procure 54 new, modern #Leopard 2A7 battle tanks, with a possibility of an additional 18 tanks. The first new tanks are expected to be delivered in 2026. This will significantly strengthen the Norwegian Armed Forces and the @NorwegianArmy. #WeAreNATO pic.twitter.com/L4f0Q9MKRZ
— Norwegian Armed Forces | Forsvaret (@Forsvaret_no) February 3, 2023

“In today’s security situation, close defense cooperation in Europe is becoming increasingly important,” Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said in the statement. “By purchasing German tanks, we ensure that Norway has the same type of tanks as our Nordic neighbors and close allies.”

The purchase comes after a debate triggered by Norway’s defense force chief about whether the NATO member bordering on Russia needs to buy new tanks right now, given the impact of technological developments, such as drones, on the battlefield in Ukraine. Norway was weighing up whether to go with the Leopard 2 or the South Korean K2 Black Panther.

https://defence-blog.com/norway-selects-winner-of-main-battle-tank-competition/

 

[jward]

Tanking Up: Understanding the Materiel—and Moral—Implications of the New Armor Heading to Ukraine - Modern War Institute​

Frank Hoffman​

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There is much to celebrate in the collective decision by Ukraine’s Western supporters to again upgrade security assistance to Kyiv with modern armor systems including the well-regarded German Leopard 2. There is little doubt the new weapons systems will eventually make a substantial impact on the battlefield. Kyiv’s tank troops are elated with the decision, their tanks are old, and parts and ammunition are becoming scarce. Hence, the call to “send in the tanks.”
That said, the delayed approval of the transfer decision has further slowed the delivery of both the tanks and their requisite training, logistics and maintenance support. These will not be operationally relevant until the summer now, giving Russia more time to dig in or devise countermeasures. The US topline tank, the M1A2 Abrams, is not going to be delivered until late 2023, at best. In hindsight, this was a decision that would have been better timed if made three months ago.

The debate that delayed that decision cost the Ukrainians the chance to take the initiative. As George Barros from the Institute for the Study of War noted in a recent interview, “The Ukrainians were signaling an intention to conduct offensive operations over the winter, but the lack of Western security assistance has degraded their ability to do that.” The extended discussions more than degraded such operations; it has deleted that opportunity this winter entirely. Now the Russians have more time to prepare their defensive fortifications or launch their own counteroffensive before the Ukrainians have been augmented. The additive tanks will not be on the ground in time for Ukraine to use them in the near term, while Russian forces are cold and tired. They remain vulnerable for now, but that window could be closing as General Valery Gerasimov scrambles to reconstitute his mauled units and create an offensive capability to satisfy Vladimir Putin’s imperial illusions.
The delay is understandable given the domestic politics inside Germany. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz sought and got political top cover for a risky move that some of his base thought was being pushed on Germany by allies. The American reluctance to introduce the world’s heaviest, jet fuel–guzzling, technologically loaded tank was a useful excuse for him to hide behind. But the US administration changed its position, which gave Scholz support to relent and give Kyiv the tanks necessary if it hopes to recover lost territory. The entire episode did little to enhance the chancellor’s international reputation, but Germany’s domestic politics account for that.

Game Changer?
The decision to upgrade the Ukrainian military’s combat power with these tanks has an immediate effect, but not in the way many anticipate (or if the decision had been made months ago). The tread heads in the tank community will point to the heavy metal. But there is a psychological impact that comes with all this hardware too.
The first shock is for Moscow, which now discovers that its saber-rattling no longer paralyzes decisions in Berlin or Brussels. Augmenting that, the government in Kyiv is now reinforced, belatedly, with the West behind it, with a high-quality armor upgrade. The signal being sent with up to perhaps three hundred heavy tanks is that the democracies are committed not only to the near-term fight but to Ukraine’s postwar security. Even that fact will seep into the Kremlin’s dull decision calculus.
Second, at the operational level, the Ukrainian military gets a psychological boost knowing that the Western armor and munitions are coming. While Ukraine’s forces may be tired or worried about the upcoming spring offensives, they now realize they not only will have the tools needed to deflect a Russian thrust, but now will have the capability to execute offensive maneuvers of their own to regain territory. This extra component, a mailed fist, will allow them to initiate their own offensive with greater confidence and lethality. Combined with the fighting vehicles previously approved, they can anticipate decreased operational losses and greater maneuver capacity.
Finally, the Russian troops in the front line, whether they are sitting in a trench or in a T-72 from the 1st Guards Tank Army, realize what is now coming. They sit there now in the cold in Ukraine or just across the border, realizing that the chances of operational success in gaining more territory this year just went down appreciably. That reality may not ever sink in for Putin and his circle of sycophants in the warm halls of Moscow, but it will be much clearer to the average Russian soldier in Luhansk or Crimea that the chances of survival (much less success) just got slimmer. The Russian morale is brittle given the length of the conflict to date, and the revolving military leadership team is going to find the task of motivating the next cohort thrown into the meat grinder that much more difficult.

One of the chief lessons of the war so far is that human factors remain paramount. Technology is important, but what mattes more is the ability to apply it effectively. Americans have a strong bias toward technology and hardware, and overlook what Michael C. Davies and I termed the human domain. The Ukrainians have clearly demonstrated a competitive edge in morale, will to fight, and improvisation. It is possible that Russia’s mobilization, including the convicts being released to fight in Ukraine with the Wagner Group, will finally offset Kyiv’s manpower advantage. However, it is extremely unlikely that it will offset the qualitative superiority of those Ukrainians committed to defending their homeland. For that reason, the prospects for Ukrainian operational success this summer just got better.
In sum, the tanks themselves are not a game changer but they provide a competitive edge in both the materiel and moral dimensions of this war.

Russian Reconstitution?
Russia’s past performance in this theater raises a lot of questions about its agility and endurance, despite the efforts to mobilize fresh troops and put the economy on a war footing. A number of questions have to be answered. Will the hastily mobilized conscripts of Putin’s regenerated force be any better? Unlikely. Can the Russian military overcome its overly centralized command structure, limited communications, and poor troop quality? Also unlikely. Will Russia adapt its force design and its crude tactics to overcome their limitations? Possibly. Will it continue to simply batter the Ukrainians with massive amounts of artillery or will it employ the next generation of drones in more creative ways, perhaps targeting the Ukrainian military’s now larger and hence more vulnerable logistics tail? Not likely at all.
As the analysis team at the Institute for the Study of War notes, Russia should be expected to be more careful about heavy losses with this next cohort of conscripted soldiers than it was with convicts and Wagner mercenaries over the winter. As the team’s report observed, “The Russians’ ability to execute large-scale rapid offensives on multiple axes this winter and spring is thus very questionable.” Time will soon tell. Both sides could introduce surprises, possibly in the air or in electronic warfare, that tip the balance one way or another.

Net Assessment
As Columbia University professor and landpower scholar Steve Biddle has argued, offensive maneuver remains necessary in warfare, and the next campaign should reinforce that fundamental reality. We can expect that tanks, in both the offense and defense, will also show that the tank is not obsolete, even if it is increasingly vulnerable. The open terrain in the east and an adversary without the modern loitering munitions and antiarmor systems employed to date favor success with the armor the Ukrainians have asked for. The only doubt is how much time will be needed to absorb them and integrate them into the operational and logistics systems supporting Kyiv’s forces. Some well-informed analysts think armored fighting vehicles may be more valuable than the slower tanks, combining greater mobility and speed for offensive operations while bringing Ukraine’s infantry into positions of advantage. Moreover, as Mike Kofman has noted, true combined arms warfare requires airpower as well as steel on the ground. For Kyiv to be successful, it will have to demonstrate that it can exploit the air domain in some form.

The stalemate I projected last April came to pass, until the success of Ukraine’s surprising sweep into Kharkiv against thin defenses last September. Ukraine has doggedly extended that success by pushing Russia backward in the south into more defensible positions, again with selective strikes on command-and-control posts and the aggressor’s key logistics nodes. To press their attack further and unhinge the Russian line, Ukrainian forces will have to upgrade the maneuver component of their campaign and integrate their fires better at the operational level. In addition to shortfalls in offensive air and air defense, Kyiv remains short on long-range artillery as shown by an recent valuable report by the Polish Institute for International Affairs.

All told, the Leopards, Challengers, and Abrams are clearly not an instant game changer given the balance of forces in the battlespace. The tanks are not without problems. They present new training and logistics challenges, as noted in these pages. The Ukrainian people, however, have proven quite agile at absorbing and adapting Western tech to their needs. The advanced training to operationally apply this hardware is ongoing already at a base in Grafenwoehr, Germany. In contrast, Russia has proven surprisingly inept at learning, giving the edge in the battle of adaptation to Kyiv so far. The anticipated campaigns of this spring and summer will be the final test of Gerasimov’s and the Russian General Staff’s badly tattered credibility.

Nine months ago, I wrote here that Ukrainians would be hard pressed to conduct combined arms maneuver to regain lost ground. That is now an outdated judgment. This time, with nearly a year of grueling combat experience under their belts and the reinforcements they are getting, we should be much more optimistic. It will not be mass, but maneuver and moral factors that will dominate. Better employment of materiel, not just raw quantity, will serve the Ukrainians well in the face of the mindless attrition we’ve seen from the Russian machine.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy needs military success to increase his bargaining position at any subsequent negotiations. Regaining the four occupied oblasts is key to convincing Putin he’s lost. Success will not happen in the near term, regrettably. But it is looking more likely over the course of this year.

Dr. Frank Hoffman is a retired Marine Reserve infantry officer and former DoD official. He currently works at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.
Image credit: Marco Dorow, Allied Joint Force Command Naples

Tanking Up: Understanding the Materiel—and Moral—Implications of the New Armor Heading to Ukraine - Modern War Institute

There is much to celebrate in the collective decision by Ukraine’s Western supporters to again upgrade security assistance to Kyiv with modern armor systems including the well-regarded German Leopard 2. […]

mwi.usma.edu

 

[jward]

Germany, Denmark, Netherlands to provide at least 100 Leopard 1 tanks for Kyiv | Cyprus Mail​

By Reuters News Service​

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Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands will pool funds to restore at least 100 old Leopard 1 tanks from industry stocks and supply them to Ukraine, according to a joint statement published on Tuesday.
The countries said Ukraine would receive within the coming months at least 100 Leopard 1 A5 tanks as well as training, logistical support, spare parts and an ammunition package.
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, on a surprise visit to Kyiv, said between 20 and 25 of the tanks would arrive by summer, about 80 by the end of the year and more than 100 in 2024, according to a statement by Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov’s office after the counterparts met.
Dutch Defence Minister Kasja Ollongren said the Leopard 1 was “definitely still suitable” for combat use despite being an older model.

“It’s really a tested tank,” she said on Dutch national broadcaster NOS. “They’re being fixed up and made battle-ready, so they will definitely be useful for the Ukrainians, and also better than a number of Russian tanks.”
Details of the deal still need to be worked out with the companies that own the tanks, according to the statement.
The exact number of tanks and whether there would be cost-sharing with the companies were not immediately clear. There are some 180 Leopard 1 tanks in Germany owned by arms maker Rheinmetall RHMG.DE and a company in northern Germany.

In total, the German government approved the export of up to 178 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine.
“How many of these tanks can actually be delivered to Ukraine at the end of the day depends on the extent of the restoration work needed,” the German economy and the defence ministries said in a joint statement.
Standing beside Reznikov in Kyiv, Pistorius noted he had earlier seen off Ukrainian forces departing for training in Germany on the more modern Leopard 2 tanks his country has also promised Ukraine.
Reznikov tweeted a picture of himself and Pistorius posing with a scale model Leopard in a display case, writing: “The ‘first’ Leopard 2 has arrived in Kyiv.” The German defence ministry later tweeted that the actual Leopard 2s would be available at the end of March.

Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands said their Leopard 1 initiative was open to further partners, adding Belgium had shown “initial interest to participate”.
Earlier, the head of German arms maker Rheinmetall said it would send Ukraine 20-25 Leopards this year, with the rest of the 88 Leopard 1 tanks it owns in total to be sent next year.
The move follows the German government’s decision last month, amid mounting international pressure, to deliver more modern Leopard 2 battle tanks from army stocks.

Germany, Denmark, Netherlands to provide at least 100 Leopard 1 tanks for Kyiv | Cyprus Mail

Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands will pool funds to restore at least 100 old Leopard 1 tanks from industry stocks and supply them to Ukraine, according to a joint statement published on Tuesday. The countries said Ukraine would receive within the coming months at least 100 Leopard 1 A5 tanks…

cyprus-mail.com