WAR 6/20 - 6/27 ***The***Perfect***Storm***

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'Israeli strike on Iran won't end nuclear program'

By YAAKOV KATZ
06/24/2011 01:32
http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=226377

US defense analyst says Israel can't eradicate Iranian nuclear weapons; 5 scientists who helped design Bushehr killed in plane crash.

Israel could cause extensive damage to Iran’s nuclear program but would not succeed in eradicating it in a future military strike, leading American defense analyst Anthony Cordesman said on Thursday.


Speaking to The Jerusalem Post on the sidelines of the Israeli Presidential Conference in Jerusalem, Cordesman also said that Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was alienating Israel from the rest of the world and was a liability for Israel and the United States.

Cordesman is a senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and served in the past as director of intelligence assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

“You can achieve short-term gains but the basic structure of the Iranian efforts would remain and such a strike would do more to catalyze support of the program in Iran than undermine it,” Cordesman said of a possible Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

“It would not threaten the regime and while Israel might achieve some gains, it would not be able to restrike [if it is rebuilt].”

“There is a very hard target mix and the problem is that there is a lot we don’t know about the system and there is not a lot of unclassified reporting on Iran’s program,” he said.

“If they [the Iranians] had any willingness to consider this, they would have enough redundancy and reconstitution capability so that a single strike would not have long term effects.”

Last year, Cordesman wrote a paper arguing that the US ties to Israel were not based primarily on strategic interests but rather on moral and ethical reasons. At the time, he wrote that Israel “at the best of times” provides some intelligence and some minor advances in military technology.

He said that Israel needed to use the ongoing upheaval in the Middle East to work toward peace with the Palestinians as opposed to Israel’s current strategy, which he said was to stall for time.


“We cannot afford confrontations between Israel and the Arab world,” he said. “Pushing away from the peace process and a foreign minister that constantly confronts the Arab world and alienates you from the world is a liability for us.”

Meanwhile Thursday, news reports broke that five people killed in a plane crash in northern Russia on Tuesday were Russian scientists who had helped Iran design its Bushehr nuclear reactor.

Reports said 45 people were killed in the crash and Russian security sources confirmed that five of the dead were nuclear scientists who had worked with Iran, according to The Daily Mail.

The British paper identified one of the dead as Andrei Trokinov – one of Russia’s top nuclear scientists.

Despite the presence of the scientists on the plane, investigators said the crash was the result of bad weather and pilot error, not foul play.[/size]




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State Department Travel Warning: If you Try to Sail to Gaza, Israel may Kill you

Friday 24 June 2011
by: Ali Gharib
http://www.truth-out.org/state-depa...-try-sail-gaza-israel-may-kill-you/1308925058

The State Department today released an updated travel warning for Israel and the Occupied Territories. The update signified that it was issued "to warn against participation in any attempt to reach Gaza by sea." The warning is likely in light of the so-called "Freedom Flotilla" of humanitarian activists setting out any day now to break the blockade of Gaza enforced by the Israeli military.


Last year, a similar attempt to break the blockade ended in the deaths of nine people, including an American.

The State Department warning said:


The security environment within Gaza, including its border with Egypt and its seacoast, is dangerous and volatile. US citizens are advised against traveling to Gaza by any means, including via sea. Previous attempts to enter Gaza by sea have been stopped by Israeli naval vessels and resulted in the injury, death, arrest, and deportation of US citizens. US citizens participating in any effort to reach Gaza by sea should understand that they may face arrest, prosecution, and deportation by the Government of Israel. [...] On May 31, 2010, nine people were killed, including one US citizen, in such an attempt.

The US citizen killed was Furkan Dogan, a 19 year old permanent resident of Turkey who witnesses said was shot five times by Israeli commandos that made an early morning raid against the ship he was aboard. (Eight others, all Turkish nationals, were also killed.) The US did not undertake or ask for any special investigations and seemed to accept the validity of Israel's own investigations, which cleared the Jewish State's armed forces of any wrong doing.

Stand up to the monolith of corporate news - support real independent journalism by donating to Truthout here.

Both the blockade of Gaza and the raid on ships in international waters have had their legality questioned. Yesterday, the Israeli military attacked two Palestinian fishing boats off the Gaza coast, but within the limits Israel set for them.

State Department spokesperson Mark Toner recently said US citizens who partook in the flotilla to break the Gaza blockade were putting themselves at risk:


We have made clear through the past year that groups and individuals who seek to break Israel's maritime blockade of Gaza are taking irresponsible and provocative actions that entail a risk to their safety.

During his recent visit to Washington, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remarked that "America has no better friend than Israel." As Matthew Yglesias pointed out, the statement is "absurd." This seems borne out by a travel warning that tells citizens not to try to get to Gaza by sea so that they don't risk getting shot by their country's "best friend."






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Denouncing Syrian Leader, Protesters Return to Streets

By ANTHONY SHADID
Published: June 24, 2011
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/25/world/middleeast/25syria.html?_r=1&ref=middleeast

BEIRUT, Lebanon — Thousands of Syrians turned out Friday for weekly protests in the country’s most restive towns and cities, denouncing as insincere an overture by President Bashar al-Assad for dialogue and testing the ability of the military and the government’s vast array of security forces, already stretched thin, to contain the dissent.


The shows of dissent have become a ritual in Syria, where an uprising entering its fourth month has unfurled an array of challenges for one of the region’s most repressive governments. An economy viewed as crucial to Mr. Assad’s vision for a modernized Syria has ground to a halt, and international isolation built this week as the European Union added yet more sanctions in pressure that has unsettled the Syrian leadership.

Analysts have begun watching another key indicator, as well: Whether security forces and the military, deployed for more than 100 days, will reach a breaking point.

“The more this senseless violence goes on, without any clear objective and clear effect, the more the security services will come under stress, and ultimately they will break,” said a Syria-based analyst who, like many interviewed, spoke only on condition of anonymity. He called the government’s approach “a slow-motion suicide dynamic.”

It was almost impossible to gauge whether the protests were bigger than in past weeks, though activists, citing accounts on the ground, insisted they were in some places. Security forces killed at least one protester, they said, in the suburbs of Damascus, the capital.

Demonstrations gathered in Homs and Hama, large cities in central Syria, as well as Deir al-Zour in the east. Dara’a, the southwestern city where the uprising erupted in mid-March after 15 students were detained for scrawling antigovernment graffiti, witnessed protests, as did the suburbs of Damascus, where Mr. Assad faces some of his most strongest opposition.

“We can’t have dialogue with papers and pens written by the tanks of the regime,” a banner read in Homs, Syria’s third-largest city. “It’s a dishonorable dialogue.”

Though the death toll in the Friday protests typically mounts later in the evening, there were anecdotal reports of security forces seeking to avoid casualties — or perhaps being too overstretched to enforce their authority in every locale. Residents said military forces stayed on the outskirts of Hama and Deir al-Zour. When security forces tried to break up one of the protest in Homs, residents said, their men fired in the air.

Other activists said the military had, in fact, reinforced near the Turkish border, and sent new forces to the drought-stricken region near Dara’a.

The protests came days after Mr. Assad delivered just his third address to the country since the uprising began. Though short on specifics, he offered a national dialogue that he suggested could lead to fundamental changes in the Constitution, particularly its stipulation that the governing Baath Party maintain a monopoly on power.

Turkey, the United States and European countries have urged Mr. Assad to go much further, but his audience seemed to be as much his own still-substantial constituencies inside Syria. Since the uprising began, the government has sought to court them by warning that chaos would follow the government’s fall. In some ways, Monday’s speech was a culmination of another government argument: only Mr. Assad, not protests he has blamed in part on conspiracies, can bring reform to Syria.

But demonstrators offered their own reply.

“This speech was sponsored by Dettol,” some chanted in Hama, a reference to a disinfectant and Mr. Assad’s comparison of conspiracies against Syria to germs.

In Dara’a, protesters chanted, “The germs want the fall of the regime,” in a play on a popular slogan in Egypt and Tunisia: “The people want the fall of the regime.”

The strife has driven more than 11,500 Syrians across the border with Turkey, with more than 1,500 crossing Thursday after the Syrian military neared the frontier. A spokesman for Turkey’s Foreign Ministry said an additional 11,000 remained in camps on the Syrian side of the border.

A dozen of them crowded the TV in a farmhouse in the border town of Guvecci on Friday to watch the protests back home unfold on Al Jazeera.

“My hearts want to go back to Syria to protest,” said one, who provided only his first name, Muhannad. “There is no going back to the way things were before March. I feel like anyone who leaves their country: never comfortable.”

Though more protests have occurred lately in Aleppo, both it and Damascus have remained relatively quiet throughout the revolt. The tranquillity of the capital has led some diplomats to quip that it is Syria’s equivalent of the Green Zone.






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Hezbollah slams 'unjust' verdict against Bahrain activists

By Joseph Eid | AFP – Fri, Jun 24, 2011.. .
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/hezbollah-slams-unjust-verdict-against-bahrain-activists-102138933.html

Lebanon's Hezbollah denounced "unjust" sentences of life imprisonment handed by a Bahraini court to eight Shiite opposition activists accused of plotting to overthrow the kingdom's monarchy.

"Hezbollah condemns these politicised and unjust verdicts and ... expresses its complete solidarity with the oppressed people of Bahrain," the militant Shiite group said in a statement late Thursday.


Iranian- and Syrian-backed Hezbollah also reiterated its support for the "just demands" of Bahraini protesters, who since February have been calling for the end of the kingdom's Sunni Al-Khalifa dynasty, which has been in power for over two centuries.

A Bahrain court on Wednesday sentenced eight leading Shiite opposition activists to life in prison for "plotting to overthrow" the monarchy. It also jailed 13 other activists for two to 15 years on similar charges.

Scores more activists are facing trial on charges linked to the protests in a semi-martial court set up under a "state of national safety" decreed by Bahrain's King Hamad.

Bahrain's interior ministry has said 24 people were killed in the unrest.

Four people have been sentenced to death and three others to life in prison over the killing of two policemen during the protests. Nine others were jailed for 20 years after being convicted of abducting a policeman.

The opposition for its part says dozens of protesters have been arrested -- amid wide claims of torture -- and hundreds of Shiites dismissed from their jobs since Shiite-led protests rocked the kingdom.

Hezbollah has repeatedly criticised the harsh repression of protesters in Bahrain, prompting authorities in Manama to accuse the armed movement of meddling in the kingdom's affairs.






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Israel ready to intercept Gaza-bound flotilla: UN envoy

June 24, 2011
http://www.terra.net.lb/wp/Articles/DesktopArticle.aspx?ArticleID=582422&ChannelId=4

Israel is prepared to intercept a flotilla seeking to breach Israel's naval blockade of the Gaza Strip, the country's UN ambassador warned Thursday.

"Israel is determined to stop the flotilla," UN envoy Ron Prosor said, as preparations were underway for about 10 ships to embark later this month to Gaza to protest the longstanding Israeli blockade on the Palestinian territory.


"Israel has the right to self defense. The flotilla has nothing constructive -- there is nothing humanitarian" in the shipments, Prosor said, describing the flotilla's mission as a "provocation."

The announcement by the Israeli official raised concerns about a repeat of last year's violence, when eight Turks and a US national of Turkish origin were shot dead on May 31, 2010, during an Israeli raid on Gaza-bound aid ships.

A group of pro-Palestinian activists, led by several Turkish groups, have said they plan to sail to Gaza this month, in a repeat of the mission they undertook last year.

Israel has strongly urged Turkey to block the flotilla from leaving this time, warning that its forces will take action to prevent activists from arriving in Gaza.

The US State Department this week warned American citizens against taking part in the protest and to avoid all travel to the Gaza Strip, which is controlled by the Islamist militant group Hamas, amid warnings that they could face arrest or fall victim to violence.




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23 - 29 June 2011
Issue No. 1053
Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM established in 1875
http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2011/1053/re7.htm


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Trial by fire for Lebanon's government

[color=blue"]Clashes in northern Lebanon have heightened fears of growing sectarian tensions and external meddling, writes Lucy Fielder from Beirut
[/color]

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Within a week of the formation of Lebanon's new cabinet, the political mudslinging between Damascus's allies, who dominate the government, and the anti-Syrian opposition has turned ugly.

Clashes broke out in a flashpoint area of the northern town of Tripoli, raising fears of heightened sectarian tensions and drawing accusations of external meddling. Unrest in neighbouring Syria and fears of possible "spill-over" have also exacerbated local divisions.

It was the first security challenge for the government of Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Miqati, who is from Tripoli. "The timing of what happened in Tripoli is suspicious," Miqati commented. "Civil peace is a red line. There will be no bargaining over security."


At least seven people were killed in the clashes, including a Lebanese soldier, and more than 50 wounded. Dozens of people had gathered in Nour Square in mainly Sunni Bab Al-Tebbaneh to demonstrate against the Syrian regime and in support of the uprising.

Many of Bab Al-Tebbaneh's Sunnis have a history of rancour towards the Syrian regime, which heavily shelled the area during the Lebanese civil war. This was not the first Friday that Sunnis had come out after prayers to show solidarity with protesters against the Syrian regime across the border. What happened next is subject to dispute, but it appears that a concussion grenade was thrown in the area, generating confusion.

A gun-battle then broke out between the Sunnis of Bab Al-Tabbaneh and Alawite gunmen from neighbouring Jabal Mohsen. Lebanon's tiny Alawite community is sympathetic to the Damascus regime, which is dominated by co-religionists, while Saudi Arabia has close relations with many Lebanese Sunni factions, particularly the anti-Syrian Future Movement headed by former Lebanese prime minister Saad Al-Hariri.

Fire fights engulfed Syria Street, which divides the two areas and has long been a fault-line between the two communities. "Where they clashed is a kind of Saudi-Syrian fault-line, where Sunni-Shia differences are aired," said Osama Safa, a Beirut-based analyst.

The Alawite sect is an offshoot from Shia Islam, and although it now holds quite distinct beliefs it shares the Shia reverence for the Prophet Mohamed's grandson Ali, from whom the sect takes its name.

"It's a message that the formation of the new government has annoyed the Sunni powers that be," Safa said. Snipers also shot at the Tripoli-Minnieh highway, and rocket-propelled grenades were deployed in the clashes.

According to the confessional divisions that structure Lebanese politics, the country's prime minister is a Sunni. Both Miqati and his predecessor Al-Hariri are billionaire business tycoons, and both have a strong support base.

"Miqati has six good Sunni technocrat ministers, and that's setting up a rival to Al-Hariri's leadership," Safa said. "The message is that there's only one Sunni leader in Lebanon, and that's Al-Hariri."

Since the clashes broke out, Al-Hariri's 14 March Movement has called for an "arms-free" Tripoli, a highly unlikely prospect in a city that stands out even in Lebanon for being awash with weapons. Safa said the call was intended to embarrass Miqati, who commands considerable clout in his hometown.

Despite fears of deepening sectarian fissures in the country, Safa said that he believed Friday's incident had been related to the formation of the new government and that the violence would for the moment stop. "I think it's really a limited thing in Tripoli," he said.

Miqati himself was in the northern city on Friday in order to attend a celebration to mark the formation of his new government, though this was cancelled after the clashes. Within hours of the visit, Miqati had issued a thinly veiled accusation directed towards his opponents of stirring up the clashes.

"I said in our statement that we understood that the opposition was peaceful," he said. "That's what we were promised."

The government of Al-Hariri was brought down on January 26, when ministers from the alliance led by the powerful Syrian and Iranian-backed Shia party Hizbullah resigned in a dispute over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.

Hizbullah expects the Hague-based court to indict some of its members in connection with the killing of Al-Hariri's father Rafik in 2005.

Since Hizbullah held more than a third of the ministerial positions in Al-Hariri's cabinet, the government collapsed when the party defected. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt then formally completed his political about-face from an anti-Syrian figure to a Hizbullah ally by joining the group in voting for Miqati, instead of returning Al-Hariri.

For their part, followers of the latter have accused Hizbullah and its allies of staging a political coup, the 14 March Movement accusing Damascus of "taking Lebanon hostage" as a result of the formation of the new government and dismissing the Sunni credentials of Miqati and his fellow Sunni ministers in the new cabinet.

As always in Lebanon, where the sectarian spoil-sharing system encourages horse-trading, the government took many months to be born, even though it has been formed of figures entirely from one side in the country's political divide.

When the new government did eventually lurch into being, many observers in the country believed that Syria had decided that enough was enough, seeing little to benefit from a vacuum in Lebanon while it faced escalating challenges at home.

One factor that added to the sense that Damascus had given the green light for the government to be born was a last-minute compromise by Shia Amal leader Nabih Berri, speaker of Lebanon's parliament and a close friend of Damascus.

Berri awarded a Shia seat in the cabinet to a Sunni politician, thereby removing an obstacle to the formation of the new government.

Although criticised by its opponents as being a Hizbullah government, due to the role the group played in bringing down the last one, the new cabinet has only two Hizbullah ministers. A majority of the posts has gone to the party's Christian ally, Michel Aoun, whose bloc now has 10 ministers in the new government.







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Lebanon cannot revoke decision on forming int''l tribunal -- PM​

BEIRUT, June 24 (KUNA) -- Lebanese Prime Minister Naguib Miqati asserted, in a TV interview that will be aired late Friday, that Lebanon respects all international resolutions in relation to his country including this one on forming of an international tribunal.

Further, Miqati said that controversial issues should be resolved through the National Dialogue Body which will be met under the headship of President Michel Suleiman after the tribunal wins the parliament's confidence.


Miqati expressed hope, in an interview with Arabia satellite news channel which will be aired at 10 p.m. according to Beirut local time, and was circulated by Miqati's media bureau today, that the government's ministerial statement will be ready on the cabinet's table after finalizing discussions within the ministerial committee, stressing that "formulating the paragraph related to the international tribunal on Lebanon is still being conducted."

On the topic of Lebanon's international tribunal, Miqati said that, "whatever said, Lebanon cannot revoke the resolution on forming the tribunal because it is an international resolution, and we respect the international legitimacy, and there is no ambiguity about this."

Asked about the possibility of Lebanon's making a unilateral decision on revoking the court, Miqati said that, "if there is no Lebanese consensus on a given decision, I will continue to carry out what former governments had been abided by." He added that, "but if there is a necessity to take any difficult decision, this must happen within the framework of the National Dialogue Body, namely through the unianimity among all the representatives of the Lebanese people because there is an accurate balance differentiating between meting out justice, and the country's stability."

Finally, he said that he will continue to protect Lebanon's sovereignty, freedom, and stability, noting that, "Lebanon is not going to enter into a confrontation with the international community, or the Arab countries, and we will reiterate such meaning in the ministerial statement." (end) ah.aff KUNA 241607 Jun 11NNNN







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Russia: US sanctions on Iran companies raise questions

By REUTERS
06/24/2011 18:49
http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=226449

MOSCOW - The sanctions imposed by the United States on a major Iranian port operator and the country's national airline may affect Russian companies and "raise serious questions", the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Friday.


"Such actions, based on an extra-territorial use of US law, potentially create a situation when Russian business structures cooperating with these companies could be affected", the Foreign Ministry said in a statement





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US says won't rule out options on Venezuela sanctions

Posted: 24 June 2011 2344 hrs
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1137074/1/.html

WASHINGTON - The United States is monitoring Venezuela's ties to Iran and "no option" is off the table as far as potential sanctions against President Hugo Chavez's government in Caracas, a US official warned on Friday.


"No option is ever off the table, and the department will continue to assess what additional actions might be warranted in the future," Kevin Whitaker, the acting deputy assistant secretary for Western Hemisphere affairs, told a congressional hearing.

"The department strongly urged Venezuela to pursue a path of cooperation and responsibility rather than further isolation and we will continue to do so," Whitaker said, adding that Washington was monitoring Venezuela for "patterns of support for acts of international terrorism".

And "we continue to monitor Venezuela as well as other countries for activities that would indicate patterns of support for acts of international terrorism," he added.

The United States on May 24 slapped sanctions on Venezuela's state oil giant and cash cow PDVSA for its commercial relations with Iran, which it deems in violation of international sanctions on Tehran over its nuclear programme.

The State Department's coordinator for counterterrorism, Daniel Benjamin, also attended Friday's hearing, convened by House Republicans to discuss potential new sanctions on Caracas, and said Venezuela has shown a "demonstrable failure" to meet international requirements, particularly in counternarcotics operations.

"Instead of meeting its international obligations," Venezuela "has chosen to have close relations with Iran and Syria," Benjamin said.

Venezuelan Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro last month said he would need to evaluate the real effect of the US measure before determining what might be an appropriate reprisal.

Caracas said the US measure was taken "as part of its unilateral sanctions policy against the Islamic Republic of Iran. The government voices its utmost rejection of this decision which was a hostile action, and outside international legal norms," Maduro said.

Iranian officials have staunchly denied Western suspicions that Tehran's nuclear enrichment programme is masking a drive for atomic weapons.

Hardline Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad insisted Thursday that Iran is not seeking to build an atom bomb but defiantly added that should it decide to do so "no one can do a damn thing".






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Ahmadinejad Says Iran Does Not Fear Building Nuke​


By Global Security Newswire staff
Updated: June 24, 2011 | 10:31 a.m.
June 24, 2011 | 10:30 a.m.
http://nationaljournal.com/national...ays-iran-does-not-fear-building-nuke-20110624


Iran has no plan to construct a nuclear bomb, though it does not fear the consequences of taking the step, state media on Thursday quoted Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as saying.

"If we do want to make a bomb, we are not afraid of anybody," Ahmadinejad said in remarks carried by the Associated Press.


The U.N. Security Council has adopted four sanctions resolutions aimed at pressuring Iran to curb elements of its nuclear program that could contribute to a possible weapons development drive. Tehran has maintained its atomic intentions are strictly peaceful, but it has steadfastly rejected calls to alter its disputed atomic activities and to allow closer U.N. scrutiny over claims it has conducted research relevant to an arms effort.

"I just tell them [world powers], 'Do not waste any energy and do not make yourself tired, as eventually you have to take all your efforts for making us give in to any compromise to your graves,'" Deutsche Presse-Agentur quoted the Iranian president as saying on Wednesday.

Speaking to Iranian commerce leaders, Ahmadinejad said major governments lack any means of persuading Tehran to curb its atomic efforts, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported.

The International Atomic Energy Agency urged Iran in recent weeks to address indications the country had conducted nuclear experiments with primarily military applications.

"These claims are baseless as we do not pursue this aim [of making an atomic bomb]," Ahmadinejad said. "The atomic bomb is something for cowards but Iran is a courageous country which does need an atomic bomb."

"The world powers have created an agency named IAEA and put there a bunch of puppets," he said on Thursday.

"All sanctions imposed against us so far are just pretexts to deprive us from technological progress," he added.

In Vienna, Iran's top atomic official said his country is ready to supply other countries with uranium enrichment facilities and refined uranium, Iran's Fars News Agency reported. Tehran could also offer recommendations to other governments on buying atomic energy equipment from outside manufacturers and on defending their interests in related legal arrangements, Iranian Atomic Energy Organization head Fereidoun Abbasi told journalists.

Iran has no immediate intention to sell enriched uranium, Abbasi said. "But if a country party to the [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty] needs enriched material, we are ready to provide it, through [the] IAEA and with IAEA verification" that it is not diverted for military purposes, he said.

The official said he had "no specific country in mind" for such collaboration. Still, Iran has gleaned applicable knowledge "despite 30 years of sanctions," he said.

Abbasi encouraged nations in possession of uranium ore deposits to refine the nuclear material, saying they do not need to "sell their natural resources so cheaply."

"All Iran's nuclear activities are under full-scope safeguards and exclusively for peaceful purposes," he added.

Meanwhile, former top Israeli army officer Gabi Ashkenazi said a new drive for punitive economic measures against his nation's longtime antagonist is the "best course of action" to help avoid the emergence of a nuclear-armed Iran, the Washington Times reported.

"It’s less costly than all the other options if we are serious in saying that we are going to prevent them from having the bomb,” Ashkenazi said.

Jerusalem cannot rule out any potential moves, the former official said, referring to possible armed action against Iran. Still, the use of financial penalties is "a very promising direction" that has not been tapped to its full potential, he said.

"There is a long way to go in that sense,” Ashkenazi said. “Sometimes, I get the feeling that there’s a huge gap between the rhetoric and the reality.”

Iran poses a threat to other countries in the Persian Gulf and elsewhere in the world, not only to Israel, he added. “If you travel in the Middle East, you can hear it from Gulf countries as well as from our neighboring countries,” he said.







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06/24/11​

Bolton Receives Warm Reception as He Tells Congress to Bomb Iran, Support MEK


By: David Shams; source: National Iranian American Council (NIAC)
http://www.payvand.com/news/11/jun/1230.html

“I've argued for [military strikes against Iran] for about three and a half years,” John Bolton told the House Foreign Affairs Committee today. “Absent military action against Iran’s nuclear weapons program, Iran will have weapons much sooner rather than later,” Bolton said. “It’s a big mistake to conclude, as I believe the Administration has, that a nuclear Iran can be contained and deterred.”


Even as Bolton called for bombing Iran, President Bush’s controversial former Ambassador to the UN received a warm reception from Republicans and many Democrats on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. The Chairwoman of the committee, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, even went so far as to say “I love John Bolton.”

In addition to his calls for military action against Iran, Bolton made several bold assertions that went unchallenged by the committee. He claimed that nuclear Iran could not be contained because of the religious beliefs of Iranian leaders, arguing that containment worked against the Soviet Union because its rulers were atheists. Hence, he said, Moscow had valued life more than Tehran does because the Politburo did not believe in the afterlife. "[Soviet leader Nikita] Kruschev was considerably saner than the Iranian regime," Bolton said.

But numerous experts have contradicted Bolton’s argument about Iran’s strategic calculus. The Pentagon concluded in a recently issued report that Tehran is motivated by a cost-benefit analysis and that its “first priority has consistently remained the survival of the regime.”

Bolton also claimed that Iran could enrich enough highly enriched uranium to make one bomb in one and a half months or four bombs in six months, estimates that are dramatically more alarmist than consensus estimates.

But Ollie Heinonen, a Senior Fellow at Harvard University and the International Atomic Energy Agency's former chief of safeguards, who was largely overlooked at the hearing, disagreed with Bolton’s estimates. Heinonen explained that that process could take anywhere from 6 to 12 months, but only if Iran kicked out international inspectors and made an all-out effort to enrich uranium to weapons grade.

The conversation also turned to terrorism. Rep. Duncan (R-SC) claimed that there are extensive links between Iran and al-Qaeda and asked Bolton for his thoughts of the relationship. Bolton responded, “I don't think we know what the connection is, but I think it's something to worry about.” He then conceded there may be “no connection at all” but said that still, the U.S. should be fearful that al-Qaeda could get a nuclear weapon from Iran.

At the same time, Bolton and several members of Congress, including Reps. Sherman and Dana Rohrabacher expressed support for the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, which is designated by the U.S. government as a terrorist organization that operates as a cult. Before the hearing started, Bolton’s aide approached a group of MEK supporters in attendance and told them that he supported their efforts. Chairman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen even made a point to greet the group and shake the hands of each of the MEK supporters.

Even as Bolton called for bombing Iran, he acknowledged doing so would likely ignite a broader regional war, but dismissed the costs as worth the effort. “I think [Iran’s] most likely response would be to unleash Hezbollah and perhaps Hamas for rocket attacks against Israel," Bolton said. No follow up questions were asked on the matter.





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Fred's Horseradish

Membership Revoked
Greetings, Fred. "Israel"? It's early. Could you expand on that?

Those Russian designers dieing in a plane crash. And that stunext what ever worm. I see Israel behind it. The Israelis are a lot smarter than the mu slims.
They will use high tech as long as they can before actual war. But actual war will come. I would like to know when. Someone thinks Sept 2011. Oil will be cut off. But the mu slims right now are busy fighting each other. They can't focus on attacking Israel.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
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'Israeli strike on Iran won't end nuclear program'

By YAAKOV KATZ
06/24/2011 01:32
http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=226377

US defense analyst says Israel can't eradicate Iranian nuclear weapons; 5 scientists who helped design Bushehr killed in plane crash.

Israel could cause extensive damage to Iran’s nuclear program but would not succeed in eradicating it in a future military strike, leading American defense analyst Anthony Cordesman said on Thursday.


Speaking to The Jerusalem Post on the sidelines of the Israeli Presidential Conference in Jerusalem, Cordesman also said that Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was alienating Israel from the rest of the world and was a liability for Israel and the United States.

Cordesman is a senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and served in the past as director of intelligence assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

“You can achieve short-term gains but the basic structure of the Iranian efforts would remain and such a strike would do more to catalyze support of the program in Iran than undermine it,” Cordesman said of a possible Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

“It would not threaten the regime and while Israel might achieve some gains, it would not be able to restrike [if it is rebuilt].”

“There is a very hard target mix and the problem is that there is a lot we don’t know about the system and there is not a lot of unclassified reporting on Iran’s program,” he said.

“If they [the Iranians] had any willingness to consider this, they would have enough redundancy and reconstitution capability so that a single strike would not have long term effects.”

Last year, Cordesman wrote a paper arguing that the US ties to Israel were not based primarily on strategic interests but rather on moral and ethical reasons. At the time, he wrote that Israel “at the best of times” provides some intelligence and some minor advances in military technology.

He said that Israel needed to use the ongoing upheaval in the Middle East to work toward peace with the Palestinians as opposed to Israel’s current strategy, which he said was to stall for time.


“We cannot afford confrontations between Israel and the Arab world,” he said. “Pushing away from the peace process and a foreign minister that constantly confronts the Arab world and alienates you from the world is a liability for us.”

Meanwhile Thursday, news reports broke that five people killed in a plane crash in northern Russia on Tuesday were Russian scientists who had helped Iran design its Bushehr nuclear reactor.

Reports said 45 people were killed in the crash and Russian security sources confirmed that five of the dead were nuclear scientists who had worked with Iran, according to The Daily Mail.

The British paper identified one of the dead as Andrei Trokinov – one of Russia’s top nuclear scientists.

Despite the presence of the scientists on the plane, investigators said the crash was the result of bad weather and pilot error, not foul play.[/size]




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Taking into account the findings of the LLNL Nth Country Study I often reference and the assumption of no "special munitions" then I'd say the analysis is probably sound, particularly if there were no portions of such an OPLAN that included regime change/negation of Iran's COG.
 
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Hezbollah members confess to spying for CIA: Nasrallah

By Agence France-Presse
Saturday, June 25th, 2011 -- 9:52 am
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/06/25/hezbollah-members-confess-to-spying-for-cia-nasrallah/

BEIRUT (AFP) – Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah on Friday said members of his group had confessed to being CIA agents, and accused arch-foe Israel of turning to the US spy agency after failing to infiltrate his party.

The US embassy in Beirut immediately dismissed the accusations as "empty," saying Nasrallah seemed to be "addressing internal problems within Hezbollah."


In the first such acknowledgement of infiltration since the Iranian-backed Shiite group's founding in the 1980s, Nasrallah refused to give the identities of two party members he said were working for the Central Intelligence Agency.

But he said a third case was also under investigation, and slammed the American embassy in Beirut as a "den of spies."

"When the Israeli enemy failed to infiltrate Hezbollah, it turned to the most powerful intelligence agency," he said in a closed-circuit television speech, referring to the CIA.

"Our investigation has found that... (CIA) intelligence officers have recruited two of our members separately, whom we shall not name out of respect for the privacy of their families.

"The first confessed he was recruited five months ago... while the second confessed he had been recruited even before that," he said, adding that the recruiters were CIA agents posing as diplomats at the US embassy east of Beirut.

Nasrallah also said the group was investigating whether the third member of the militant group had been recruited by the CIA, Israel's Mossad or the intelligence service of a European country.

A US embassy spokesperson told AFP there was no substance to Nasrallah's accusations, pointing instead to internal problems within Hezbollah.

"These are the same kinds of empty accusations that we have repeatedly heard from Hezbollah," the US spokesperson said shortly after Nasrallah's speech.

"There is no substance to his accusation," he added. "It appears as if Nasrallah was addressing internal problems within Hezbollah with which we have nothing to do.

"Our position towards Hezbollah is well known and has not changed."

The United States blacklists Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation.

Nasrallah warned that Hezbollah, which prides itself on the discipline of its members and its immunity to infiltration, was facing a new threat.

"A new confrontation has now begun," he said. "We were already in a state of confrontation with the Israeli enemy, but now we are being targeted by US intelligence, opening a new front in our struggle."

The Shiite leader insisted, however, that the alleged agents had not been involved in the 2008 assassination of senior Hezbollah operative Imad Mughnieh in the Syrian capital Damascus.

Hezbollah openly accused Israel of being behind the bombing that killed Mughnieh and vowed to avenge his death. The Jewish state denied responsibility.

More than 100 people in Lebanon have been arrested on suspicion of spying for Israel since April 2009, including military personnel and telecommunications employees.

Lebanon and Israel technically remain in a state of war and convicted spies face life imprisonment or the death sentence if found guilty of contributing to Lebanese loss of life.

Lebanon has protested to the United Nations over the alleged spy networks.

Syrian- and Iranian-backed Hezbollah last fought a devastating war with Israel in 2006.

The month-long conflict killed more than 1,200 Lebanese, mainly civilians, and 160 Israelis, mainly soldiers, and destroyed much of Lebanon's major infrastructure.






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June 24, 2011, 8:29AM ET

Clinton: Gaza flotilla a bid to provoke Israel

By MATTHEW LEE
WASHINGTON
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9O286801.htm

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Thursday criticized activists planning to challenge Israel's sea blockade of the Gaza Strip, saying their efforts are neither "necessary or useful" in helping the Palestinian people of Gaza.

A day after the State Department warned Americans against participating in the planned flotilla, Clinton said the flotilla, which Israel has said it will thwart, is not helpful and will only increase tensions. She noted that Israeli authorities had this week approved new shipments of housing construction material to enter Gaza legally and that the aim of the organizers appeared to be to merely provoke Israel into using its right to defend itself.


"We do not believe the flotilla is a necessary or useful effort to try to assist the people of Gaza," Clinton told reporters at a news conference with the visiting foreign minister of the Philippines. "We think that it's not helpful for there to be flotillas that try to provoke action by entering into Israeli waters and creating a situation in which the Israelis have the right to defend themselves."

On Wednesday, the State Department specifically discouraged U.S. citizens from taking part in the flotilla, which is planned for later this month. In a new travel warning for Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, it said the Gaza coast is "dangerous and volatile" and pointed out that the Israeli navy had stopped previous attempts to enter Gaza by sea, and that's resulted in deaths, injuries and arrests. A dual U.S.-Turkish citizen was killed in a clash between Israeli forces and activists on board a Gaza-ship last year.

The department said those who participate may face arrest, prosecution and deportation by Israeli authorities, who have also said they will seek to ban anyone attempting to break the blockade from traveling to Israel for 10 years.

A group of 36 U.S. citizens has announced plans to sail aboard a U.S.-flagged vessel in a flotilla to Gaza to challenge the blockade.





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June 24, 2011, 11:11AM ET

Turkey aligns with West on regional turbulence

By CHRISTOPHER TORCHIA
ANKARA, Turkey
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9O2AIAO3.htm

Zeynep Gurcanli, a Turkish journalist, endured lengthy security checks upon arrival at Israel's international airport on her previous reporting trips. This week, however, Israeli authorities rolled out a red carpet of sorts for media guests from Turkey, an old ally turned harsh critic.

"An Israeli Foreign Ministry official meets the group of Turkish journalists inside the passenger boarding bridge, separates them from the other passengers and takes them to passport control in a vehicle waiting near the tarmac," Gurcanli wrote online for Hurriyet, a Turkish newspaper.


"Passport control lasts two minutes; we all have normal passports, but we are allowed through the diplomatic section."

The VIP treatment, and the extensive reporting on Israeli views in the journalists' newspapers back home, reflects a softening of tension between the two countries, though it is too early to call it rapprochement. The mood contrasts with a plunge in Turkey's ties with Syria, an enemy of Israel whose troops occupied areas close to the Turkish border in a crackdown on anti-government protests.

More broadly, the popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa have aligned Turkey, NATO's biggest Muslim member, more closely with its traditional Western partners in shared calls for reform and an end to violence. The coordination, at least for now, undercuts a sense that Turkey had been turning "east" by forging ties with new friends such as Iran and Syria at the expense of Israel and other Western interests.

Turkey had said it was expanding its range of diplomatic and economic relationships in past years under a policy known as "zero problems" with neighbors, but it is being forced to rethink an approach that was variously described as ambitious, visionary, naive and euphoric.

"Syria was the 'perfect' example of the zero problems policy. Working with the West allows Ankara to pivot in a way that saves face," Henri J. Barkey, a Turkey expert at Lehigh University in the United States and a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in an email to The Associated Press.

"It shows that Turkey is a responsible power that deserves serious consideration," wrote Barkey, noting that President Barack Obama and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who won a third term in elections this month, have been in regular telephone contact on the Syria problem. More than 10,000 Syrian refugees are sheltering in camps on the Turkish side of the border.

Turkey initially balked at the idea of a NATO operation against Libya's Moammar Gadhafi. Now it is contributing ships and other military assets, although it is not participating in attacks on forces loyal to the besieged leader. Just as in Syria, Turkish leaders ran up against the limits of unbridled engagement in the region when Gadhafi spurned their repeated calls for concessions to the opposition.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, architect of the "zero problems" thinking and a driver of his country's aspirations for regional leadership, signaled a major policy review when he summoned dozens of Turkish ambassadors to the capital, Ankara, last week.

"Our region is in need of a serious reform process," Davutoglu told the group. "The requests of the masses in the various countries are normal, just and legal. If these are brought about, our region would be more stable, more democratic and more prosperous."

Some analysts speculate there is a looming rivalry between Turkey and Iran, even though Erdogan has spoken in defense of the Iranian nuclear program to the consternation of the West. Iran labels the uprising in Syria as a U.S.-led provocation and, also in contrast to the Turkish position, says other regional uprisings aim to replace Western-supported governments with Islamic leadership like its own.

"We hear that Iran has a lot to do with the ongoing tension in Syria, which is not going to help relations," said Ufuk Ulutas, a Middle East researcher at the SETA Foundation, a research center in Ankara.

There remain potential points of contention between the West and Turkey, which is anxious to avoid international sanctions against Syria that would hurt its own economy. Turkey lost trade during years of sanctions against former Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein, and penalties against Iran because of its suspected nuclear weapons program are also hurting Turkish business.

Additionally, Turkey's bid to join the European Union has suffered because of European skepticism, Turkish delays in reform and a dispute over the divided island of Cyprus. Membership seems even more distant because of Europe's financial upheaval.

"It only made the EU a more inward-looking entity," Ali Babacan, Turkey's economy minister, said in a recent meeting with foreign media in Istanbul. "The self-confidence has to come back to the EU before enlargement can continue in a meaningful way."

Turkey's problems with Israel are rooted in the plight of the Palestinians and predate the so-called "Arab Spring" of uprisings against autocrats, but there are signs that Turkey does not want to raise tensions as it grapples with Syria and other challenges.

Turkish activists abandoned plans to send a ship with a Europe-based aid flotilla aiming to break Israel's sea blockade of the Gaza Strip in the weeks ahead. Last year, nine people on the same Turkish vessel died in an Israeli raid on an earlier flotilla. The activists cited technical glitches for dropping out this time, but the Turkish government's appeals to act with moderation undoubtedly carried weight.

Turkey still wants an apology and compensation from Israel, even as the West urges it to reconcile with its onetime ally, a move that could eventually elevate Turkey to the status of regional mediator with vital Western support. In the latest diplomatic whirlwind, leaders of Palestinian factions were in Turkey this week for talks, and Qatar's emir arrived in Turkey on Friday to discuss regional upheaval.

The Turks are "serious people and want to be seen as serious people who know there are problems in the region and have some sense of how to deal with them in a humane and principled way," said a Western diplomat with knowledge of the Turkish perspective. The diplomat spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issues.

Turkish policy is pragmatic, said Alper Dede, an assistant professor of international relations at Zirve University in Gaziantep, a Turkish city near the Syrian border.

"Concepts of enemy and friend change rapidly in international relations," Dede said. "Whom a country considers a friend is beyond a doubt a matter of where that country sees its benefits."





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Hundreds of Syrians flee into Lebanon

June 25, 2011 01:16 PM The Daily Star
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lo...-Syrians-flee-into-Lebanon.ashx#axzz1QD4V7kOI

BEIRUT: Around one thousand Syrian refugees have crossed into Lebanon since Thursday, security sources told The Daily Star Saturday, six with gunshot wounds.

One military source said the six Syrians, who underwent major surgery after being transferred to a hospital in Akkar, were soldiers who told doctors they had defied Syrian authorities’ orders to shoot civilians.


The refugees fled mainly into the northern town of Wadi Khaled, about 5 kilometers from the Lebanon-Syrian border, and into the Akkar region.

Syrian activists speaking to Associated Press upped the death toll of Friday’s protests to 20 Saturday, as security forces continued the three-month crackdown on anti-government protesters.

The Local Coordination Committees, a main activists’ group, said Friday it had the names of 14 civilians killed in the merchant city of Homs, the impoverished town of Kiswa south of Damascus and in the residential district of Barzeh in the capital.

Another protester was shot dead in the town of Qusair, a rights group said.

Protests also erupted in western coastal cities and eastern provinces near Iraq. Syrian troops swept to the northern border with Turkey Thursday, prompting another 1,500 refugees to flee across the frontier.

Syrian television said Friday army units were “completing their deployment” in border villages. It said there had been no casualties during the operation and that soldiers were greeted with traditional welcomes of flowers and rice by residents.

Human rights organizations have estimated that around 4,000 Syrians have taken refuge in Lebanon since the crackdown began.

Some refugees have crossed through the Arida border crossing, while others have came through the connecting river of Nahr al-Kabir. Some are residing with relatives in the Akkar region, which has close links to southern Syrian towns, while others are staying in tents provided by non-governmental organziations.

Some 11,000 refugees are also estimated to have fled to refugee camps across the Turkish border.

President Bashar Assad has repeatedly described protests in the country as a conspiracy against the government.

The Syrian government’s crackdown – which Syrian rights groups say has led to the death of 1,300 protesters – has prompted international condemnation.

Several countries have pushed for a United Nations Security Council resolution to condemn the violence and on Friday the European Union announced extended sanctions against Syria. Targets of the sanctions included three commanders of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard accused of helping Damascus curb dissent. Syria denies Iran has played any role in tackling the unrest. -
With AP, Reuters


Read more: http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lo...-Syrians-flee-into-Lebanon.ashx#ixzz1QIgkMB92
(The Daily Star :: Lebanon News :: http://www.dailystar.com.lb)




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Syrian security forces prevent funerals near Damascus; tanks deployed

Jun 25, 2011, 12:01 GMT
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/n...prevent-funerals-near-Damascus-tanks-deployed

Cairo/Beirut - Syrian security forces prevented the families of people killed in the ongoing protests from holding funeral processions in the Damascus suburb of Kiswa, activists said Saturday.

The mourners were forced to bury the bodies without funerals, many of which have also turned into anti-government protests over the past few weeks.


At least 16 people were killed on Friday after security forces fired live ammunition at protesters.

Eighteen tanks were deployed throughout Kiswa, as security forces launched raids in the town, according to activists who have been monitoring the protests and compiling lists of those killed.

They said one person was killed in Kiswa early Saturday, but the body was taken away by security before it could be identified.

Hundreds of soldiers besieged the Baraza neighbourhood of Damascus and telephone lines were cut in the area, activists said.

Security forces were also deployed in the Moadamiya district of the capital.

Human rights groups say that more than 1,300 civilians have been killed and 10,000 detained since protests demanding greater freedoms and the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad began. Hundreds of security personnel have also been killed in the uprising.

Meanwhile, the official SANA news agency reported that seven people - civilians and troops - were killed on Friday in attacks by armed groups in different parts of the country.

The government blames 'armed groups' and 'infiltrators' for the unrest.

The government crackdown on protesters has led thousands to flee to Turkey and Lebanon.

The chief of Syrian Red Crescent, Abdul-Rahman Attar, said Saturday that those displaced in Turkey can return to the country with no fear of retribution.

'We, as the Red Crescent, guarantee that the Syrian government will not call (the refugees) for questioning,' Lebanese radio quoted Attar as saying.

More than 11,739 Syrians crossed the border into Turkey to escape the violence.

'With the comprehensive amnesty declared, they would not be interrogated,' Attar said. Al-Assad ordered a general amnesty on Tuesday in a move aimed at easing the unrest.





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Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use....
http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/preventing-nuclear-north-korea-5518

Preventing a Nuclear North Korea
| More [1]
|
June 23, 2011
Leon V. Sigal [2]

If engagement with North Korea has been difficult over the past two decades, disengagement has been disastrous. In the absence of negotiations, Pyongyang has taken steps to improve its nuclear and missile capabilities—or worse.

The conventional wisdom in Washington is that Barack Obama held out his hand to Kim Jong-il only to have it slapped away. The reality is more complicated.

Instead of resuming talks with North Korea, the administration moved to improve ties with South Korea, where President Lee Myung-bak was determined to isolate and pressure Pyongyang in hopes of making it more pliable in negotiations, if not cause its collapse.

The U.S. embassy in Seoul warned Washington of Lee’s “tougher approach” in a January 29, 2009 cable disclosed by WikiLeaks: President Lee . . . is prepared leave the inter-Korean relations frozen until the end of his term in office, if necessary. It is also our assessment that Lee's more conservative advisors and supporters see the current standoff as a genuine opportunity to push and further weaken the North, even if this might involve considerable brinkmanship.

Lee had begun by backing away from a promising October 2007 summit agreement that committed the two Koreas to negotiate “a joint fishing area” in the contested waters of the West (Yellow) Sea and naval confidence-building measures “to avoid accidental clashes and turn it into a zone of peace.”

Lee’s renege triggered a war of words, then three deadly clashes. When a North Korean patrol boat crossed into the disputed waters on November 9, 2009, a South Korean naval vessel fired warning shots at it. The North returned fire and the South opened up, severely damaging the North’s ship and causing an unknown number of casualties—just what the 2007 summit accord had sought to forestall. On November 17, according to North Korean accounts, Kim Jong-il ordered the training of a “do-or-die unit of sea heroes” to avenge the attack. That order was carried out on March 26, 2010 with the torpedoing of a South Korea corvette, the Cheonan, killing 46,an attack for which Pyongyang has denied responsibility. When Seoul reacted by conducting live-fire exercises in the West Sea, the North retaliated with a November 23 artillery barrage on Yeonpyeong Island that killed four South Koreans, two of them civilians.

Seoul also moved to impede nuclear negotiations by undoing an October 2007 six-party agreement under which Pyongyang had pledged to provide “a complete and correct declaration of all its nuclear programs” and to disable its plutonium facilities at Yongbyon, pending their permanent dismantlement. In return, it was promised energy aid, an end to U.S. sanctions under the Trading with the Enemy Act and removal from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. The accord made no mention of verification, which was left to a later phase of negotiations.

Under pressure from Seoul, President Bush delayed the delisting and easing of sanctions until Pyongyang agreed to cooperate in verifying its nuclear declaration. Even after Pyongyang accepted arrangements which could have sufficed to ascertain how much plutonium it had extracted in the past, Seoul suspended delivery of promised fuel oil and Bush backed it.

On entering the White House, the Obama administration sustained this course. Its posture of “strategic patience” left its North Korea policy hostage to Seoul, which was doing its utmost to impede negotiations.

Pyongyang decided to force the action. In late January 2009, it began assembling a rocket. It tried to portray an April 5 test of the device as a peaceful attempt to put a satellite into orbit. Spurning a Security Council statement that condemned the launch and imposed sanctions, Pyongyang immediately began preparations for its second nuclear test, conducted on May 25. That led to additional U.N. and U.S. sanctions.

North Korea’s response was to reveal both a new missile and a uranium enrichment facility at Yongbyon, underscoring the futility of sanctions in curbing its nuclear activities. What it has yet to do is enrich substantial quantities of uranium, restart its Yongbyon reactor to generate more plutonium, or conduct the additional missile and nuclear tests it needs to develop its new deliverable warhead and more reliable missiles.

Inducing Pyongyang not to take these steps should begin promptly. That was the view of Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who told reporters on a trip to Asia on January 11 that two things have changed the status quo in Korea: The first is, with the North Koreans’ continuing development of nuclear weapons, and their development of intercontinental ballistic missiles, North Korea is becoming a direct threat to the United States, and we have to take that into account. And the second is … clearly if there is another provocation, there will be pressure on the South Korean government to react—a diplomatic way of signaling U.S. military unhappiness with Seoul’s aggressive stance. Gates showed strategic impatience: “We think there is some urgency to proceeding down the track of negotiations and engagement …"

Pyongyang is ready to negotiate with Seoul to ship out the fuel rods needed to restart its nuclear reactor in return for energy aid. It seems willing to abide by a moratorium on missile tests, and possibly nuclear tests, once talks with Washington resume. And it has said it will negotiate on suspending its uranium enrichment.

Seoul wants Pyongyang to apologize for sinking the Cheonan and attacking Yeonpyeong Island before entering into nuclear talks, but an apology won’t prevent more attacks. Negotiating a peace treaty might. What are Washington and Seoul waiting for—more trouble?


Links:
[1] http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?v=250&username=nationalinterest
[2] http://nationalinterest.org/profile/leon-v-sigal
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use...........
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,770272,00.html

06/24/2011 04:58 PM
The Threat Next Door
A Visit to Ahmadinejad's Nuclear Laboratory

By Dieter Bednarz and Erich Follath

A recent United Nations report reinforces suspicions that Iran's nuclear program may be serving military purposes -- and that it is being infiltrated and attacked by computer viruses. During a recent visit by SPIEGEL reporters to Tehran's contested nuclear laboratory, scientists wouldn't comment on the developments, but the sensitivity of the issue in Iran is clear.

Amir Reza Jalilian, 39, is the kind of person anyone would want as a neighbor, work colleague or tour guide. He is a jovial man with a velvety voice who jokes a lot and frequently twirls his manicured beard. He has a family, loves good food and has trouble resisting sweets, a problem that is beginning to make itself felt on his hips. Everyone who works with him says that Jalilian is always helpful and wouldn't hurt a fly. It certainly seems that he is no Dr. Strangelove, a man who would take pleasure in seeing the world destroyed by nuclear weapons, or could even bomb it into oblivion himself.

There is, however, something disconcerting that the real Iranian scientist has in common with the fictitious monster Peter Sellers portrayed in the 1964 film "Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb," a stock character that has since come to embody the notion of a lunatic bent on destroying mankind. Jalilian is one of the leading experts on the medical use of isotopes. He works with the chemical elements that are enriched to make fuel for nuclear power plants, but can also be used as the building blocks of nuclear weapons.

The Innermost Sanctum of the Iranian Nuclear Program

Jalilian is indeed the kind of person one would want as a neighbor, work colleague or tour guide, provided he isn't leading a double life, and that his amiable nature isn't a façade, and that there is nothing phony or affected about him. Jalilian has offered to give SPIEGEL staff a tour of the innermost sanctum of the Iranian nuclear program, through what is probably one of the most well-protected workplaces in Tehran, one that is carefully shielded from prying eyes.

Jalilian works in the northern part of the city, between two expressways, where the mountains are visible and the air is cleaner than in the smog-filled basin where much of the city lies. In the densely populated neighborhoods of the Iranian capital, a city of 13 million, apartment buildings alternate with supermarkets, restaurants and daycare centers. The hilly nuclear complex, which is the size of four football stadiums, is probably almost as large as Lale Park, which, like the government district, is only a few minutes away by car.

There are no signs to reveal that this is the home of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, which, at least officially, is the heart of all nuclear activities in this country. The complex is sealed off with high walls and barbed wire, with electronic surveillance cameras scanning every hidden corner. Members of the Revolutionary Guard who are particularly loyal to the regime protect the site. All visitors must pass through several security checkpoints, including some with Geiger counters.

A Self-Contained World

It is a small, self-contained world, with its own mosque, cafeterias and administrative buildings. And if opposition sources are to be believed, it also contains highly dangerous laboratories. One of the world's most controversial nuclear research facilities, the Tehran research reactor, Jalilian's realm, is housed in an inconspicuous domed structure made of gray concrete.

United Nations experts and foreign intelligence agencies suspect that Iranian scientists like Jalilian could be working on the ultimate weapon for the theocracy's political leadership. Several of his colleagues have already been assassinated. In January 2010, a remotely detonated bomb killed nuclear physicist Massoud Ali Mohammadi. A few months later, the nuclear scientists Majid Shahriari and Fereidoun Abbasi Davani were targeted in a double attack carried out almost simultaneously. In all likelihood, Israeli hit squads carried out the attacks.

That's the visible aspect of the conflict. But there is also an invisible aspect, the one that involves striking at the machinery: the cyber war, the attack by killer viruses sabotaging the Iranian nuclear facilities. Both attacks are taking place in parallel. Both are spreading fear and dismay within Tehran power circles. And both are dealing a decisive blow to a possible Iranian weapons program, but could also help prevent a conventional war that would claim thousands and thousands of casualties.

Officially, all three victims were professors. Mohammadi taught at the University of Tehran. Shahriari, an expert on neutron transport, taught at Shahid Beheshti University. Abbasi Davani, the only survivor of the attacks, was an expert in isotope separation. Although Jalilian is not on a UN list of Iranian scientists barred from traveling abroad -- like Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a professor and Revolutionary Guard who is suspected of being the chief organizer of a weapons program -- he could be on a secret death list maintained by the Israeli Mossad.

'My Work Is Intended to Save Lives, not Destroy Them'

When asked if he is afraid of assassins, Jalilian responds, "Of course not," shaking his head, as he hands out white lab coats and plastic shoes and guides his guests through a personnel lock. "Why should I feel threatened?," he asks. "I just deal with nuclear materials used in cancer therapy. My work is intended to save lives, not destroy them."

As he tells us during the tour through the reactor building, Jalilian studied in Tehran, the western German city of Aachen and in the United States. He says that almost a million Iranians in 135 radiation treatment centers throughout the country depend on the "nuclear kits" -- containers of molybdenum 99 isotopes -- produced here. But this is only one of the uses of these materials. The other is as a starting point for nuclear weapons.

The reactor-holding basin looks like a swimming pool in a horror movie. Eerie blue light beams appear in the dark water, produced by a phenomenon called Cherenkov radiation, which occurs when electrically charged subatomic particles pass through the surrounding water at high speeds. Silver tubes are leaning against the wall. A portrait of Iranian Revolutionary Leader Ayatollah Khomeini hangs on the wall above a table of test readings. The portrait is crooked and covered with dust, as if there had been more pressing matters than making sure it was straight and clean.

A 'Confidence-Building' Measure Fails

According to Jalilian, foreigners with no knowledge of the field are "very rarely" granted access to the site. Apparently the political leadership made an exception in January, when President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in what was dubbed a "confidence-building measure," invited selected ambassadors accredited with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to visit the facility. But the event, intended as a PR coup, proved to be an embarrassment for the regime. The representatives of Germany, France and Great Britain, who are particularly suspicious of Iran's nuclear ambitions, were not invited -- nor, for that matter, was anyone from the United States.

Continued..........
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Continued.....

Ironically, if Americans had been invited, they could have brought along the old plans for the reactor. The United States built the five-megawatt, light-water research reactor, completed in 1967, and it even supplied the Shah's regime with weapons-grade uranium. It was an open secret in Washington that the Shah wanted to build the bomb, which didn't seem to bother US politicians at the time. The United States saw the Pahlevi monarch as a reliable ally and couldn't imagine that anything would ever change. The Americans stopped delivering the fuel roads after the 1979 revolution. Argentina provided Tehran with fuel rods for a time, but when UN sanctions were imposed because of Iran's ongoing deceptive cover-up tactics, it terminated all cooperation.

'A Military Strike Against our Facility Would Be Mass Murder'
"Everything is very carefully monitored here in our reactor," says Jalilian, pointing to cameras that record every movement around the basin. Detectors are installed for good measure. Every three months, he adds, IAEA inspectors come to the facility to perform additional inspections. However, Iran never ratified the supplementary protocol that would enable the UN nuclear watchdogs to conduct unannounced inspections. In the meantime, the Iranians were forced to admit to having conducted experiments with polonium 210, the element used to trigger a chain reaction in a nuclear bomb.

Tehran's leaders also provoked the world community in other ways. They spent a long time negotiating an exchange agreement, under which much of their enriched uranium would be sent abroad in return for the delivery of fuel rods for the Tehran reactor, only to pull out of the deal in the end. They continue to enrich uranium, in violation of all UN Security Council resolutions. And now they are no longer enriching 3.5-percent uranium for the production of fuel rods, but are in fact enriching to a level of almost 20 percent, a major step in the direction of producing bomb-grade material. However, Jalilian insists that he and his colleagues are merely interested in producing the material needed to resupply their reactor with fuel.

Hardly anyone can describe the healing power of the atom as touchingly as the accommodating Ali Asghar Soltanieh, 60, Iran's ambassador to the IAEA in Vienna for the last six years. Soltanieh, a nuclear physicist, is very familiar with the research reactor because it was where he began his career. But his problem is that no matter how smooth his approach, nowadays he only has the support of African and Asian countries, as well as that of Cuba's and Venezuela's aging revolutionaries. The so-called "five-plus-one" group that negotiates key issues with Soltanieh -- the United States, France, Great Britain, Russia and China, plus Germany -- is reacting with growing irritation to his statements.

And ever since Japanese diplomat Yukiya Amano, 63, replaced the more conciliatory Egyptian Mohamed ElBaradei, 68, as director general of the IAEA in late 2009, the tone is becoming increasingly sharp. The most recent IAEA report states unequivocally that Iran has refused to answer outstanding questions on the "possible military dimensions" of its nuclear program. Amano is demanding more cooperation from Tehran, which is "not fulfilling a number of its obligations." While the American intelligence agencies have become more cautious when it comes to Iran's intentions, even citing a "lack of evidence of a bomb program," the IAEA has adopted an increasingly alarmed tone in recent days. In early June, its nuclear inspectors reported that Tehran is developing a nuclear warhead.

Cyber Attacks on Iran's Nuclear Program

However, Iran's efforts are stagnating in key areas. For instance, Tehran has not been able to significantly increase the number of its functioning centrifuges or the amount of enriched uranium it has. The Stuxnet computer virus and the cyber war may well be the causes of these setbacks. David Albright, director of the respected Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), believes that attackers "planted" the bugs in the Iranian systems and, in doing so, destroyed about 1,000 of the 9,000 centrifuges already installed. Other experts even speculate that the malicious electronic bug destroyed a third of the Iranian centrifuges. The Israelis and Americans are believed to be behind the attack.

Meïr Dagan, the head of the Mossad for many years, even gloated that Iran had revealed "substantial technical vulnerabilities" and would probably not be capable of building a bomb until 2015. It is an open secret that Israeli intelligence tested the effects of Stuxnet on real centrifuges in the Negev Desert that were of the same design as those used in Iran's Natanz reactor and soon to be installed in its Qom reactor.

Saeed Jalili, the powerful secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and a close ally of Ahmadinejad, admitted to SPIEGEL in mid-January that the computer worm had infected Iran's nuclear facilities, but he also claimed that the attack had been "repelled." In an interview with an Israeli journalist in mid-April, the head of Iranian civil defense sounded less euphoric. He mentioned "potentially major damage" and accused not only the Americans and Israelis, but also German engineering giant Siemens, claiming that it knew about and was even involved in the cyber attack -- an allegation the company denies. In late April, the Tehran military commander announced that a new computer virus known as "Stars" had been smuggled into Iran. It had supposedly been planted in various networks through official documents and had initially caused only "limited damage."

A Plant that Makes Iran's Neighbors Nervous

Whether a cyber attack is responsible for the repeatedly delayed startup of the Bushehr nuclear power plant remains unclear. The Iranian authorities blame the delays on defective pumps. Iran's Arab neighbors, however, make no secret of the fact that the nuclear plant makes them nervous -- not necessarily because of its alleged military use, but because of its location. Bushehr is in the middle of a notorious earthquake zone in southwestern Iran, and an accident like the one that occurred in Japan's Fukushima plant could trigger a catastrophe stretching well beyond Iran's borders.

Or course, the scientists at the nuclear complex in northern Tehran are also familiar with the problems of the Iranian nuclear program, the cyber attacks and the setbacks. Nevertheless, none of them is willing to comment on the issue, which is apparently too sensitive. In their facility, they say, they are dealing with completely different and more pressing issues. Iranian patients need "medical supplies," says Jalilian, with his persistent smile. He insists that he is not someone who loves the bomb that kills people but, rather, someone who loves the radiation that destroys metastases.

Should the world be more magnanimous and ignore the risk that some of the radioactive material being produced for medical purposes in Iran's research reactor could be diverted to produce dangerous weapons-grade material? Should Tehran's leaders, who, because of their rigid nuclear policies, already bear the blame for the UN's having imposed four rounds of sanctions on their people, agree to a deal on the enriched uranium, if only for humanitarian reasons? Is it conceivable that cancer patients are being turned into political pawns by all sides of the conflict?

Jalilian doesn't go into these questions. But he has heard of the Israelis' "absurd" plans to possibly bomb the nuclear facilities in Natanz, near Isfahan and outside Qom one day. The Tehran research reactor is also allegedly at the top of the list of potential targets for missile strikes. Over lunch in the cafeteria the otherwise soft-spoken Jalilian issues a warning and suggests that his guests pass it on to the rest of the world: "A military strike against our facility would radioactively contaminate the entire northern part of Tehran -- all the apartment buildings, stores and playgrounds. It would be mass murder."

URL:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,770272,00.html

Related SPIEGEL ONLINE links:

Iran's Chief Nuclear Negotiator: 'We Have to Be Constantly on Guard' (01/18/2011)
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,739945,00.html
Israel's Shadowy War on Iran: Mossad Zeros in on Tehran's Nuclear Program (01/17/2011)
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,739883,00.html
SPIEGEL Interview with IAEA Head Yukiya Amano: 'We Still Know Too Little about Tehran's Nuclear Activities' (01/11/2011)
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,738634,00.html
The Secret Alliance: Cables Show Arab Leaders Fear a Nuclear Iran (12/01/2010)
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,731877,00.html
The Birth of a Bomb: A History of Iran's Nuclear Ambitions (06/17/2010)
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,701109,00.html


© SPIEGEL ONLINE 2011
All Rights Reserved
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
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OK! Any one have comments about this question? Is it "Yea"! Or is it Nay"?

Do you "feel" that you should have the right to carry openly?





Some in St. Louis area carry guns openly to affirm rights


BY SHANE ANTHONY • santhony@post-dispatch.com > 636-255-7209 | Posted: Monday, June 20, 2011 12:35 am | (152) Comments
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/metro/article_23828920-2b8c-5169-8c34-08bb73c432a9.html


ST. PETERS • Steve Randall strolled into the Starbucks at Mid Rivers Mall Drive and Mexico Road one recent Thursday evening wearing his Glock 21C pistol in a holster at his side.

Randall's imposing height and short haircut might have led some to believe he was a police officer. Perhaps they were too busy to notice the gun on his hip or the hips of two men who joined him.


For Randall, 39, of Overland, this was just another "open-carrying" gathering with friends, something he says he does for two reasons — to provide personal protection and to let Missourians know they have the right to do so.

Open carry is legal in most states, but in recent years has become part of the national gun debate, which had primarily been dominated by battles over carrying concealed weapons. California, where open carry is allowed if the gun is unloaded, is a battleground on the issue now.

Locally, Maplewood just banned open carrying of firearms after a man walked into Walmart with a holstered pistol.

Opponents say the practice isn't necessary in modern times. But supporters such as Randall want to affirm their rights.

"My wish is to show that open carry is a viable form of carry and a legal option in many places," Randall said.

"Openly carrying guns creates a culture of fear and intimidation," countered Brian Malte, director of state legislation for the Brady Campaign to Prevent Handgun Violence. "It's alarming to the populace, and it's alarming to the police."

In California, where legislators are weighing a ban on open carry, gun owners have shown up at Starbucks with holstered weapons, Malte said, and protesters have followed them.

The coffee chain's position has been that the issue should be decided in legislatures and courts rather than in its stores. So the company follows the local laws.

That has led open carry advocates to frequent the stores, even if, like Randall, they don't claim to be big coffee drinkers.

Ted Bruce, an assistant attorney general, said Missouri generally allows a person to carry guns openly with a few restrictions such as polling places, schools, churches and government buildings. It is also illegal to carry a firearm while intoxicated, he said.

However, many individual Missouri municipalities have instituted stricter laws banning open carry. And Bruce said businesses can restrict guns: "If Starbucks wanted to say 'you can't come in with a gun,' they would have the right to do that."

Both open and concealed carry are considered illegal in Illinois.

LITTLE ATTENTION

Malte said even gun rights advocates are split on open carry. "Most Americans do not think that's normal behavior," he said.

Mike Stollenwerk, co-founder of OpenCarry.org, said gun rights advocates usually have three issues. They want the right to carry, the right to transfer ownership and the right to use their weapons for self-defense. But he and other advocates see open carry without requiring a permit as a practice courts have upheld for years based on the constitutional right to bear arms.

"Open carry is the Second Amendment," Stollenwerk said.

Stollenwerk said those who carry properly holstered handguns rarely receive much attention. "When people do notice, they disregard it or ask friendly questions like, 'Hey, do I need a permit to do that?'" he said.

"In the end, even most concealed carriers want the right to choose open carry when it suits them and their circumstances, just like open carriers want the right to choose concealed carry sometimes."

Randall posts regularly on OpenCarry.org. He said he decided about three years ago to wear his gun to a Walmart in St. Charles. He was nervous, he said, but nothing happened. No one seemed to notice.

Since then, Randall has gone to Starbucks shops throughout the area. He has posted videos on YouTube, and his gun-toting coffee shop ventures drew the attention of others who have joined him.

One, Jared Miller, 39, of Lincoln County, said Randall helped him overcome misgivings about open carrying in more-populated areas. "I've always wanted to do that, but I was a little nervous," he said.

ENCOUNTERS WITH COPS

At times, Randall and his group encounter police officers. Someone called St. Charles police when he openly carried on Main Street in 2010. He posted a video of the encounter on YouTube.

A search of the video site leads to a host of similar encounters across the country. Some, like Randall's in St. Charles, are cordial. Some, like an incident in Philadelphia, were peppered with foul language and involved officers drawing their weapons.

Randall says he isn't looking for a lawsuit or confrontation, but he wants officers to know he has the legal right to carry.

He has researched local ordinances online and by calling city officials or visiting them in person. He said the rules vary greatly across the Missouri side of the metro area. In St. Peters, open carry is allowed for those who have concealed carry permits. City ordinances prohibit open carry in St. Louis. In St. Charles, no permit is required.

The Maplewood City Council recently banned open carry. Police Chief Steve Kruse said he recommended the change after Walmart security called police on March 12 to report a man in the store with a holstered pistol. Officers eventually arrested him on a St. Louis County traffic warrant, Kruse said.

Kruse said citizens can carry concealed if they get the proper permit.

"Why would you feel that you have to openly carry a firearm knowing full well that people are going to be alarmed by it, and the police are going to be called?" he asked.

Randall said he prefers open carry because it is more comfortable. He also said it could deter those with ill intent from committing a crime. He says it's important to him to exercise his rights because, if he doesn't, "Did I really have the right? No. I only had the illusion."

Often, people don't notice Randall carrying his gun. When they do, most are more curious than confrontational, he said, but he understands some may be afraid. He said he tries to be friendly and professional to put others at ease and fight the image of guns as villains.

"Civil society is not about bare minimums," Randall said. "It is about treating others in a manner that you want to be treated and understanding that others' perspectives and agendas may be very different than your own."





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I'm for the 2nd Amendment, my problem with this is that this kind of action with the current political climate, as well as the last couple of decades of social indoctrination, is that by protesting in such a manner, the protestors are only going to give TPTB and their MSM an opportunity to hammer them and close any "loopholes" in their view of the powers of the nanny state.

IMHO, a better use of resources by Randall and others would be to work to make the political change happen that would make everything else fall back into line.

My favorite "WTF moment" for the MSM on this was during the 2008 campaign when a group was protesting a DNC event in Arizona. Many were open carrying including a very professionally dressed and well spoken African-American with a pistol on his hip and an AR-15 slung over his shoulder. The media didn't know what to make of that.
 
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LC

Veteran Member
Interesting question...open carry. In spite of having grown up in a time and place where a long gun in the pickup was customary I find myself a little sheepishly uncomfortable with open carry.

Upon analysis I would rather open carry than concealed carry by someone who is not required to get a CCD. That way you at least KNOW they are carrying. I think it is just what we are used to seeing.

I do however see the validity of Housecarl's analysis and cannot disagree.

LC
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use....
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/26/world/middleeast/26syrians.html

Security Forces Makes Mass Arrests Across Syria

By LIAM STACK
Published: June 25, 2011


ANTAKYA, Turkey — Syrian security forces arrested scores of people across the country on Saturday as mourners took part in the funerals of six protesters killed Friday outside of Damascus, continuing a grim pattern of protest, death, mourning and repression that has been repeated week after week as the uprising in Syria enters its fourth month.

Activists said two people were killed in the security sweep on Saturday.

Syria has been gripped since mid-March by an unprecedented popular uprising against the government of President Bashar al-Assad, whose family has ruled with an iron fist for over four decades. The government has cracked down hard on the protests, killing more than 1,400 people and detaining more than 10,000, according to activists, who estimate that 20 were killed on Friday, 5 of them children.

Violence in the rural northwest has driven more than 11,000 refugees into neighboring Turkey, where the Red Crescent, a local version of the Red Cross, said this week that 17,000 more were waiting to cross the rugged border. Hundreds have also crossed into Lebanon, The Associated Press reported Saturday, citing a Lebanese security official.

Pallbearers carried the coffins of the dead through the streets of the Damascus suburb of Kisweh on Saturday as a column of mourners marched behind them, clapping their hands and loudly chanting “God is great,” according to a video posted online by activists.

“We wanted a very big funeral to honor the dead and we planned to show the regime our answer to their killing,” said Ibrahim, 30, a farmer in Kisweh. “We are so angry and we will not forget our martyrs. The security men killed Hassan Shabib, who was 13 years old.”

Activists estimated the number of mourners in Kisweh at 30,000, although the video posted online appears to show far fewer. Syria bars most foreign journalists from entering the country so it is difficult to verify the accounts of either the government or its opponents.

As mourners in Kisweh buried their dead, security forces continued a wave of mass arrests in towns and villages across the country that activists and residents said began after midnight Friday.

In Kisweh, dozens of people were arrested on Saturday and one was killed, according to the Local Coordinating Committees, a grass-roots group.

Many residents were nervous, hiding in their homes and unwilling to talk to a visiting reporter out of fear of possible government retribution.

Activists from the Coordinating Committees said there were also dozens of arrests in the Damascus neighborhood of Barzeh, where three people were wounded and one person, Riad al-Shayb, 18, was killed.

A human rights activist in Damascus, who declined to be identified for fear of government retribution, called the situation in Kisweh and Barzeh “tense,” and said he expected the government to come down hard there in a bid to crush protests in the capital that activists said have drawn ever larger crowds.

The Coordinating Committees said there were also mass arrests Saturday in Homs, Syria’s third largest city; Mare’a, a suburb of Aleppo; and the villages of Khan Sheikhoun and Jebel Zawiyah in the restive northern province of Idlib, where security forces have reportedly used scorched-earth tactics in recent weeks as part of a drive to retake a string of towns that appeared to have fallen beyond their control.

The Committees had no estimate of the number of people detained. A spokesman for the group, Hozan Ibrahim, said they were primarily young people, a trend that he said reflected fear on the part of the authorities.

“They are scared,” he said. “Young people are the ones organizing the demonstrations and this is the last thing they want to happen.”

In Kisweh, hundreds of soldiers prowled the streets on Saturday in what local residents described as a manhunt for young people believe to have taken part in antigovernment protests. Backed by at least 15 tanks, uniformed soldiers from Syria’s conscript army went from house to house bearing a list of the names of wanted men.

“They have lists with the names of pro-democracy activists who are behind the demonstrations,” said a resident who identified himself as Abu Muhammad, 45, a public employee. “The regime intends to punish us.”

He said checkpoints barred anyone from entering the town, squeezed between the capital and the Danoun Palestinian refugee camp 12 miles south of Damascus.

“I wanted to go to work this morning but I saw a large number of soldiers with uniforms standing near two tanks and they told me you cannot leave Kisweh today, go back home, no work today,” said Abu Muhammad. “The soldiers blocked all of the entrances to Kisweh and won’t allow anyone to leave it.”

An employee of The New York Times contributed reporting from Damascus, Syria.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/25/us-libya-idUSTRE7270JP20110625

NATO says hit military targets in Libya's Brega


By Nick Carey
TRIPOLI | Sat Jun 25, 2011 12:15pm EDT

(Reuters) - NATO missiles have hit a site in Libya used by Muammar Gaddafi's forces to stockpile military supplies and vehicles, the alliance said on Saturday, adding it was unaware of 15 civilian deaths reported by state media.

The attack late on Friday was the second within hours on what NATO said were clearly identified military targets in the coastal city of Brega, around 200 km (130 miles) west of the rebel stronghold of Benghazi.

Libyan state television said a local bakery and a restaurant had been hit, wounding 20 people in addition to the 15 dead. State news agency Jana said a strike in the same area earlier on Friday had killed five civilians.

"We have no indications of any civilian casualties in connection to these strikes," a NATO official said.

"What we know is that the buildings we hit were occupied and used by pro-Gaddafi forces to direct attacks against civilians around Ajdabiya," the official said of a nearby rebel-held town.

"Unlike the pro-Gaddafi forces, we go to great lengths to reduce the possibility of any civilian casualties."

Separately, a Reuters correspondent in the capital Tripoli heard a total of four loud explosions as jets flew overhead on two occasions on Saturday. The blasts appeared to come from the eastern suburb of Tajura. Several other explosions shook the city late on Friday.

CREDIBILITY

NATO acknowledged for the first time last week that one of its raids in a three-month campaign could have caused civilian casualties, prompting concerns within the alliance.

Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini said NATO's credibility was at stake and called for a suspension in the campaign -- an appeal that was swiftly knocked down at NATO headquarters and by allies, including France and Britain.

In a televised address this week, Gaddafi branded NATO "murderers" and vowed to fight to the death to stay in power.

The bombing campaign of the NATO-led coalition is into its fourth month in support of Libyan rebels seeking to end Gaddafi's 41-year-old rule.

Recent progress has been slow and rebels have taken many casualties, but there are signs Gaddafi's forces are also being stretched and the local economy hit by international sanctions.

In what would be a morale-booster for rebels if they hear about it, four members of Libya's national football team and 13 other football figures defected to rebels, the BBC reported.

It said national goalkeeper Juma Gtat and Adel bin Issa, the coach of Tripoli's top club al-Ahly, announced the defections in the rebel-held Nafusa Mountains in western Libya.

(Reporting by Ben Deighton in Brussels; Joseph Nasr in Berlin; writing by Mark John; editing by Alistair Lyon)
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Turkey renews strategic ties with Israel ahead of showdown with Syria

DEBKAfile Special Report June 25, 2011, 9:04 AM (GMT+02:00)

After more than a year of strained relations, Turkey has decided to restore military and intelligence collaboration in the eastern Mediterranean with Israel as Ankara heads for a military showdown with Syria, according to Debkafile's exclusive military sources. The deal worked out between President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu also gives Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan a role in Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy and a chance to bring Hamas into the process.

The deal was discussed in a telephone conversation that took place between the US president and Turkish prime minister last Tuesday June 21, hours after Assad's hardnosed speech at Damascus University. The last ends were tied up when Israel's Deputy Prime Minister, Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Yaalon, visited Ankara secretly last week and met Erdogan and Fidan Hakan, the head of Turkish intelligence MIT.

Obama and Erdogan agreed that Bashar Assad's reign was over although both their intelligence agencies gave him another four to six months to hang on. To hasten his end, they decided on a two-part campaign: the US and Europe would step up sanctions on Syria and Turkey would raise the military heat.

This decision prompted US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to comment for the first time on a possible Turkish-Syrian military clash: "…we're going to see an escalation of conflict in the area," she said.

Saturday, June 25, Turkey began setting up a big new camp to accommodate a further influx of 12,000 to 15,000 Syrian refugees at Apaydin 10 kilometers from the border, on the opposite side of which Syria's crack 4th Division is massing tanks under the command of Syrian Republican Guard commander Gen. Maher Assad, the president's brother.

The numbers of refugees continued to swell after soldiers again opened fire on tens of thousands of demonstrators who poured into the streets after Friday prayers, killing at least nineteen.

As Syrian-Turkish military tensions continue to escalate, Ankara saw the necessity of coordinating its air and naval operations with the United States and Israel in case the Syrian ruler responded to a border flare-up by launching surface missiles against Turkish military targets and US bases in Turkey. Obama urged Erdogan and Hakan to get together with the Israeli minister Yaalon to work things out, a move that would call up the old close strategic bonds between Turkey and Israel before they the rupture over Israel's 2009 Cast Lead operation against Hamas in Gaza, the Turkish flotilla episode of May 2010 and other incidents.

Calling off Turkey's critical participation in the next big flotilla scheduled for this month to breaking Israel's Gaza blockade indicated the ice was melting.

For the sake of opening a new chapter between Jerusalem and Turkey, our sources disclose that Netanyahu gave in to Obama's request to give Erdogan another chance to promote Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy – this time by bringing Hamas aboard. The Turkish prime minister believes he has a fair chance of altering Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal's inflexible resistance to recognizing Israel.

After meeting Meshaal's rival, Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas, in Ankara Friday, June 24, Erdogan said "Turkey would mobilize support to help the Palestinians achieve recognition and form their own state." Abbas replied: "There will be no turning back from the road to reconciliation [with Hamas]."

Abbas and Meshaal were both in the Turkish capital at the same time, although they denied meeting.

Confirmation that the Turkish prime minister had returned to the role of Israel-Palestinian broker, which he resigned in anger after Israel's Gaza operation in 2009, came from Jerusalem: Thursday, June 23, Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon told a visiting group of Turkish journalists: "We also accept and respect the fact that Turkey is a regional power with a great historic role."

As to Ankara's bid to broker reconciliation between Abbas and Meshaal and get them to sign a power-sharing accord, the Israeli official commented: "It is also in our interests that the Palestinians have unity. We know once they sign, they sign for everybody and we don't have to worry about this."

Debkafile's political sources: Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman have obviously recognized that if the price for Israel-Turkish reconciliation and a return strategic collaboration is accepting Hamas' presence on the Palestinian side of the negotiating table, it is worth paying. They have apparently conceded the long-held principle not to deal with a Palestinian terrorist group dedicated to Israel's destruction without seeking cabinet endorsement.

http://www.debka.com/article/21061/

Posted Under Fair Use Discussion

My Comments

Russia has a naval base in Syria, which the MSM seems not to report. This will be no Libya!
 
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Turkey denies Israeli official secretly visited Ankara

26 June 2011, Sunday / TODAYSZAMAN.COM,
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-248625-turkey-denies-israeli-official-secretly-visited-ankara.html

The Turkish Foreign Ministry denied on Sunday a report claiming that a senior Israeli official secretly visited Ankara and had talks with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoðan to discuss the restoration of military and intelligence collaboration with Israel.

The report that appeared on the DEBKAfile website on Friday alleged that Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Ya'alon met with Erdoðan and Turkish National Intelligence Agency (MÝT) chief Hakan Fidan to finalize an agreement to restore military and intelligence cooperation between Turkey and Israel in the eastern Mediterranean. It said the deal was worked out between US President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and was discussed in a telephone conversation between the US president and Turkish prime minister on June 21. Quoting its military sources, DEBKAfile said the deal also gives Erdoðan a role in efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.


“A web site, whose closeness with some intelligence organizations is also mentioned in the international public opinion, alleged that the Israeli deputy prime minister secretly visited Turkey and met with our prime minister. The news that appeared on the website in question does not reflect the truth and is totally baseless,” a statement from the Turkish Foreign Ministry said.

“Such news stories aim to disinform the public opinion. We invite the regional and international public opinion to be cautious while considering stories of that sort,” it added.

The report came amid suggestions that the deterioration in Turkish-Syrian ties over Turkish criticism of a Syrian protesters on anti-regime protesters could pave the way for improvement in Turkish-Israeli ties, which has been on a standstill since Israeli commandos killed eight Turks and one Turkish American on an aid ship trying to break an Israeli blockade of Gaza on May 31, 2011.






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Sunday 26/06/2011, 17:48 (Jerusalem)

Why is Israel conducting unprecedented drills?

Nasser Laham
http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=399700

Israel continues to implement a plan set up in 2004 by Ariel Sharon, to change the Israeli army from huge and heavily armed to a smaller and smarter one.

Sharon had learned lessons from the third Gulf war when the US army, thanks to long-range missiles, managed to destroy a huge Iraqi army counting up to five million soldiers in a blink of the eye.

Since that time, Israel has been seeking to completely outdo armies of the Arab countries, or “to remain the strongest country military wise 10 kilometers from Jerusalem as the crow flies,” to quote Israeli defense minister Ehud Barak.


In fact, Israel has become a dangerous military arsenal in the Middle East despite the small size of its army which counts not more than 125,000 troops. Israel is capable, though, of destroying and even exterminating states and complete peoples either by nuclear warheads, or internationally banned weapons such as biological, chemical, hydrogen, and atomic weapons.

Weirdly, the UN and the international human rights groups and committees pay very little attention to that if at all, despite all reports by people of expertise which explain that the Israeli nuclear reactor in Dimona, built in 1950s, is too old and might result in leakage.

Over the past few days, Israel has conducted unprecedented major military and home front drills. The immediate question that pops in is what exactly is Israel doing and why?

The drills are all about the home front, not the army, and Israel seeks to achieve three goals:

The first goal is to maintain a small and smart army instead of a large and heavily armed one. This army will operate in the future inside Arab cities rather than in the Negev desert, the Golan Heights, or the Jordan Valley. This is to keep the home front and the Jewish people steadfast. The battle inside the enemy’s land will be fought only by the air force, the navy, the submarines, and long-range missiles.

Secondly, Israel wants to train the home front and the different cities to remain steadfast and to stop complaining as they used to do. Previously, Israeli forces’ defeat started from the home front which exerted huge pressure only two weeks after any war crying and complaining, especially when the country was attacked by missiles. One goal of the recent drills was to train the public in Israel to tolerate a couple weeks more until the army can attack as much targets as possible from the air.

The last goal Israel sought to achieve was to prepare correspondents for the coming stage, given that current wars are being fought live, which means cameras and waves are sometimes more influential than ministers of defense and tanks.

Israel is still a big fan of what the US president did to the leader of Al-Qaeda, Osama Bin Laden, to a degree that Israel will attempt a similar adventure to satisfy the public.


The author is Ma'an News Agency's editor in chief.



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Foreign Press Association condemns GPO flotilla threats

By JPOST.COM
06/26/2011 16:55
http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=226630

The Foreign Press Association on Sunday urged the government to reverse its threat to punish journalists covering the Gaza flotilla, saying that the move "sends a chilling message to the international media and raises serious questions about Israel's commitment to freedom of the press."


The statement added, "Journalists covering a legitimate news event should be allowed to do their jobs without threats and intimidation," calling on the government to "reverse its decision immediately."





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Israel warns journalists not to board Gaza flotilla

Sun Jun 26, 2011 8:46am EDT
http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNe...rpc=401&feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=401

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israel warned foreign journalists on Sunday they could be barred from the country for 10 years if they board a new flotilla that plans to challenge an Israeli naval blockade of the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.

In a statement sent by email to Reuters and other international news organizations, Oren Helman, director of Israel's Government Press Office, said participation in the flotilla would be "an intentional violation" of Israeli law.


A year ago, nine Turkish activists, including one with dual U.S.-Turkish nationality, were killed by Israeli soldiers who raided a Gaza-bound aid convoy and were confronted by passengers wielding clubs and knives.

Pro-Palestinian activists have said ships carrying aid to the Gaza Strip could depart from European ports in the coming days.

Helman said that sailing in a new flotilla "is liable to lead to participants being denied entry into the State of Israel for ten years, to the impoundment of their equipment and to additional sanctions."

Israel has made clear it will enforce a naval blockade it says is aimed at stopping more weaponry from reaching Hamas, an Islamist group shunned by the West over its refusal to recognize Israel, renounce violence and accept existing peace deals.

Palestinians say the measure is illegal and is helping to strangle Gaza's underdeveloped economy.

"I implore you to avoid taking part in this provocative and dangerous event, the purpose of which is to undermine Israel's right to defend itself and to knowingly violate Israeli law," Helman wrote in the email, asking Israel-based journalists to pass along its contents to their editorial boards overseas.

At least one Israeli journalist, a reporter for the left-wing Israeli Haaretz newspaper, plans to sail in a Canadian ship in the flotilla, according to an article published on the daily's website on Sunday. Israeli citizens are banned by Israel from entering the Gaza Strip.

In response to Helman's warning, the Jerusalem-based Foreign Press Association said in a statement: "The government's threat to punish journalists covering the Gaza flotilla sends a chilling message to the international media and raises serious questions about Israel's commitment to freedom of the press.

"Journalists covering a legitimate news event should be allowed to do their jobs without threats and intimidation. We urge the government to reverse its decision immediately," the association said.

On Friday, the United States, Israel's main ally, said groups seeking to break the blockade were acting irresponsibly and risking the safety of their passengers.

In a statement, State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland said recent arms seizures and periodic rocket and mortar attacks from Gaza against Israeli civilians illustrated the necessity for Israel to screen cargo bound for the territory.


(Writing by Jeffrey Heller; Editing by Jan Harvey)


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Gaza-bound flotilla set to leave Greece
by Helene Colliopoulou – 19 mins ago
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110626/wl_mideast_afp/greeceisraelunrestgazapalestinians

ATHENS (AFP) – Hundreds of activists are preparing to board aid ships bound for Gaza this week in defiance of an Israeli blockade and UN warnings and in spite of the violent end to an operation last year which left nine dead.

About 350 pro-Palestinian supporters hailing from 22 countries are set to join the "Freedom Flotilla" leaving from Greek ports.

Bestselling Swedish crime writer Henning Mankell and many journalists are among those taking part in the action seeking to break a five-year long Israeli naval blockade.


Nine Turks died when Israeli forces seized the Mavi Marmara, a ship taking part in the international aid flotilla in May last year.

The raid sparked worldwide condemnation and soured relations between Ankara and Tel-Aviv.

Israel said on Thursday it was determined to stop the flotilla, calling the protest a "provocation" and saying the country had a right to self defence.

UN envoy Ron Prosor said: "The flotilla has nothing constructive -- there is nothing humanitarian or anything that has to do with Palestinian welfare in the organizing of this flotilla."

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and a number of governments have warned the flotilla not to start while the US government has urged its nationals against taking part in the protest.

Israel imposed a blockade on Gaza in 2006 after militants snatched Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. A ban on civilian goods and foodstuffs was eased last year but many restrictions remain in place.

Boats from Greece, France, Italy and Spain are among those taking part in the flotilla. Ankara said the Mavi Marmara had been withdrawn this year and that there would be no Turkish vessels involved in the operation.

The boats will leave from various Greek ports or meet off the coast, said Vaguelis Pissias from the country's "A boat for Gaza" group, without specifying a departure date.

Greek is being used as a departure point due to its geographic position and its "historical, cultural relations with Arab countries," he said.

Two cargo boats will carry medicines, a fully-equipped ambulance car and cement.

"What happened last year caused us grave concern ... but we are determined to go to Gaza, our aim is not simply to break the embargo but to show Israelis and people in the region that they have the right to live more harmoniously," said Pissias.

The United States said last week that such flotillas were not needed to funnel humanitarian aid because aid can be delivered to the Israeli port of Ashdod, from where it can be transported to Gaza.

"We do not believe that the flotilla is a necessary or useful effort to try to assist the people of Gaza," said US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

"Just this week, the Israeli government approved a significant commitment to housing in Gaza. There will be construction materials entering Gaza.

"And we think that it?s not helpful for there to be flotillas that try to provoke actions by entering into Israeli waters and creating a situation in which the Israelis have the right to defend themselves," Clinton said.





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06/26/11, 1:58 PM

Syrian Protesters Warn of ‘Volcano’ This Week

by Tzvi Ben Gedalyahu
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/145196

Syrian troops continue to shoot and kill mourners and refugees flee to Lebanon as the protest movement warns of a “volcano” this week. Various sources reported that up to 18 civilians, including two mourners, were gunned down Friday by soldiers and secret police loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad.




Hundreds of Syrians have fled to Lebanon, in addition to the more than 12,000 who have crossed the border into Turkey, activists told the Beirut Daily Star.

Assad’s government-controlled media have escalated their propaganda campaign that admits more than 1,000 deaths but claims that these were soldiers who fell victim to ”armed gangs" allegedly trying to spread sedition.

SANA, the official government news agency, reported more “eyewitness” accounts of the supposed activity by gangs, but it has not provided any photographic evidence to contradict videos of army brutality smuggled out of the country by opposition sources.

Despite growing international condemnations of Assad, the United States continues to retain its newly-appointed ambassador Robert Ford in Damascus. He told the Arabic language Al-Arabiya newspaper last week that the United States supports "dialogue between the Syrian government and the opposition inside [Syria], in order to formulate a political framework that paves the way to ending the crisis in the country.”

Ford’s house in Damascus reportedly was under siege by pro-government demonstrators, but U.S. State Department spokesman Victoria Nuland told reporters Friday the reports were “overblown.”

“As we understand what happened from our Embassy in Damascus, you had some pro-Assad demonstrators who were walking back from one of their rallies, passed the house, they were engaged in some noise and some vandalism that was quickly put down by Syrian security forces. As you know, it is the responsibility of the hosting government to ensure security of diplomatic property. I think we’re relatively satisfied that that happened in this case,” she said.





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Syria presses sweep towards Lebanon border

AFP
Sun Jun 26 2011 14:50:08 GMT+0400 (Arabian Standard Time) Oman Time
http://www.timesofoman.com/innercat.asp?detail=46923

Syria: Syrian troops pushed towards the Lebanese border on Sunday as they pressed a deadly crackdown on dissent in central towns, where gunfire rattled overnight, activists said.

The latest violence in the town of Kseir, near the flashpoint city of Homs, forced "hundreds" of people to flee over the border into Lebanon, the activists said.

The exodus came as Turkey, where some 12,000 Syrians have already taken refuge in recent weeks, scrambled to build a border tent city to accomodate a possible new influx of refugees.


Rami Abdel Rahman, who heads the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, told AFP in Nicosia that shots rang out overnight in Kseir -- 15 kilometres (nine miles) from the border with Lebanon, and in Homs.

"Shots were heard overnight Saturday in the town of Kseir," he said quoting residents, adding that, further north, gunfire was heard in several neighbourhoods in Homs.
"Yesterday (Saturday) hundreds of residents fled from Kseir to Lebanon," Abdel Rahman told AFP in Nicosia.

Four civilians were shot dead by security forces on Saturday, two of them in Kseir and the other two in Kiswah, south of the capital.

Activists say that security forces have bolstered their presence in Kseir since Friday while troops have been controlling areas of Homs for several days, as part of a policy to crush pro-democracy protests.

The sweep against the opponents of the autocratic regime of President Bashar al-Assad has also seen troops backed by tanks storm villages near the border with Turkey.
On Saturday, tanks rumbled into Al-Najia, after similar operations in Jisr al-Shughur, seized June 12, and Khirbet al-Joz, where troops deployed on Thursday, activists have said.

Al-Najia is on the road linking the northwestern city of Latakia to Jisr al-Shughur -- home to 50,000 people, most of whom fled after the army seized the town, with many crossing into Turkey.

Anti-government protests swelled on Friday with tens of thousands of people surging onto the streets in response to a call by the Facebook group Syrian Revolution 2011 -- the driving force behind three months of demonstrations.

Security forces used live ammunition and tear gas against the protesters, killing 18 people and wounding scores more, activists said.

Abdul Karim Rihawi of the Syrian League for Human Rights said funerals were held on Saturday in all three protest centres for Friday's victims.

Friday's protests contested the "legitimacy" of the Syrian regime, dominated by the ruling Baath Party for nearly five decades, despite Assad's offer earlier in the week of a "national dialogue" and a general amnesty.

Syria's crackdown has triggered waves of international condemnation.
The European Union imposed fresh sanctions on the regime and its cohorts this week, targeting as well Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards accused of helping the regime to quell the unrest -- a charge denied by Damascus.

EU leaders also adopted a declaration in Brussels on Friday denouncing "in the strongest possible terms the ongoing repression and unacceptable and shocking violence the Syrian regime continues to apply against its own people."

Meanwhile opposition figures announced they will meet in Damascus on Monday to discuss "how to solve the crisis."

The authorities blame "terrorist armed groups" for the unrest that has gripped Syria since pro-democracy protests broke out in mid-March, and say the military deployments are aimed at rooting them out.

The Syrian Observatory says 1,342 civilians have been killed in the government's crackdown and that 342 security force personnel have also lost their lives.




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Chaos feared as Syria crisis nears bloody impasse

26/06/2011
http://www.asharq-e.com/news.asp?section=1&id=25666

WADI KHALED, Lebanon, (AP) – When the Arab Spring came to Talkalakh, the little Syrian hill town a few minutes walk from this border village, it seemed to last barely a moment. Squads of secret police descended on the town within hours of the first protests. Then the army came with its tanks, and the shadowy pro-government militia called the shabiha.

The May siege killed at least 36 civilians, activists say. Hundreds of people were arrested. Thousands fled. By mid-June, the Sunni Muslim town of 70,000 people had only a few dozen families remaining, according to residents who recently escaped into Lebanon, and those still there are constantly watched by security forces.


But when night falls, the Arab Spring comes back to Talkalakh. Because that is when the young people slip quietly to the rooftops of their concrete homes. And in the darkness they shout out for freedom and for the help of God. Silence returns only when soldiers begin blindly spraying gunfire.

As the early success of the Arab Spring has bogged down in turmoil — civil war in Libya, repression in Bahrain and anarchy in Yemen — Syria has become mired in its own bloody grind of protests and repression. Its stalemate is a reflection of the new and more complicated chapter in the string of Arab uprisings.

If much of the Syrian uprising has been cloaked by an authoritarian Damascus regime that expelled foreign journalists, the stakes could turn out to be far higher there than almost anywhere else in the Arab world.

In the balance are political reform for one of the region's most brutally repressive countries, and fear that the nation of 22 million people could descend into sectarian conflict that would draw in players from across the Middle East.

Residents of protesting towns describe relentless shelling of their neighborhoods. They pass around cell phone videos of young men so badly tortured that their corpses look like butchered meat. More than 1,400 Syrians have been killed in the crackdown, activists say, and 10,000 have been detained.

"Soldiers kick the faces of demonstrators under arrest, when they are handcuffed on the ground. They say: "You want freedom? This is your freedom!" said a bookish 21-year-old from Talkalakh who asked to be identified only by his first name, Zakariya, fearing retribution against relatives. "They think they can stop our protests by abusing us, but that is not going to work."

Like many demonstrators, he was surprised to find himself in the streets at all.

"We couldn't even imagine that we could talk like this, that we could ask for freedom," he said, standing in the shade of a tree on Wadi Khaled's quiet main street. But then satellite TV brought news of demonstrators overthrowing dictators in Tunisia and Egypt, and of political convulsions across the Middle East.

"It gave us the courage to raise our voices," he said.

However, three months after the protests spread to Syria, the country is in a political no-man's-land, with President Bashar Assad's regime unable to crush the tenacious grassroots opposition but unwilling to begin talks with them. Assad's most recent peace offering, a vague promise to consider political reforms, was quickly dismissed by the opposition as a ploy to buy time and hold onto power.

The regime "still believes it can crush the protests," said Rami Nakhla, a Syrian activist now living underground in Beirut who has spent months disseminating news and video clips sent from inside the country. "But it's clear the regime has played all its cards and the protests are not burning out. They're spreading."

At the same time, the activists have not managed so far to draw in Syria's middle class, resulting in protests that hopscotch across the country but seldom touch the largest cities.

The Assad regime has long used sheer brutality to hold together a fragile jigsaw puzzle of Middle Eastern backgrounds — Sunnis, Shiites, Alawites, Christians, Kurds, Druse, Circassians, Armenians and more. Sectarian violence is widely feared, and in the worst-case scenario the country could descend into a Lebanese-style civil war.

At the same time, Syria is an important geopolitical linchpin. It borders five other nations, has close ties to Iran and powerful militant groups, and controls water supplies to Iraq, Jordan and parts of Israel. Meanwhile, though Damascus and Israel are officially at war and Israel has occupied Syria's Golan Heights since 1967, their quiet, behind-the-scenes contact has sometimes been key to preventing the eruption of fighting.

"People are afraid of what could happen if Assad falls from power," said Elias Muhanna, a political analyst at Harvard University. At worst, it could become what he calls "an Iraq scenario," with armed militias carving out ethnic fiefdoms.

It is a fear that Damascus has carefully nurtured in recent months, warning repeatedly that only Assad can keep chaos at bay. And while most analysts say Assad is exaggerating, few deny that such violence is a serious possibility.

That is why many opposition figures are putting their hope on an unlikely player: the Syrian army. Dissidents say they are in touch with many lower-ranking soldiers, and have publicly urged top-ranking officers to oust Assad in a coup d'etat.

"We don't have other options right now," said Radwan Ziadeh, a prominent Syrian exile and a visiting scholar at the Institute for Middle East Studies at George Washington University. "We need the army officers to take the initiative."

Getting to that point, though, would require crossing a deep sectarian chasm.

Syria's deadlock is rooted in the divide between the Sunni Muslim majority and the Alawites, a Shiite offshoot that makes up about 11 percent of the country. The Assad family is Alawite, as are most key leaders in the army, the intelligence services and top businesses.

While Sunnis dominate the military's enlisted ranks, the top commanders are mostly Alawites. They also make up much of the army's feared 4th Division, which is led by Bashar Assad's brother Maher and used to crush the biggest protests, as well as the Republican Guard, which is responsible for protecting the capital, Damascus. Then there is the shabiha, the mafia-style militia the regime uses as enforcers, a network of fearsome young Alawite men known for dressing all in black.

The Alawites rose from economic obscurity after the 1970 coup led by Bashar Assad's father, Hafez, gaining power and financial muscle in exchange for loyalty to the Assads. It is their support that the younger Assad sees as the key to continued power.

Alawites claim they would be oppressed as Muslim heretics if the Sunnis come to power, and Sunnis claim they are unable to get the government jobs essential to reach the lower rungs of the middle class. Analyst Muhanna says the now-privileged Alawites would see majority rule as a nightmare.

"They would see it as the end of Alawite culture," he said. "The Alawites look at Syria the way the Jews look at Israel."

Whether or not the Alawite military commanders turn against Assad may depend on the new middle class.

For now, Assad counts on the support of a small but growing Syrian middle class, a mixture of Sunnis, Alawites and other ethnic groups that live mostly in the cities of Damascus and Aleppo. This newly monied class, mostly traders and small manufacturers, has seen life gradually improve since Hafez Assad died in 2000, and his son began opening up the country's economy.

"So far, they continue to think that Assad's regime ensures stability and continuity," said Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut. "If they reach the conclusion that Assad is not their man, and the regime is not one to rely upon, they will join the protest movement."

That, he said, would be the point when the Syrian army would step in — when they believed a coup could keep economic chaos at bay while allowing Alawite military commanders to retain at least some power.

"In order to avert the specter of civil war, you would have to include the Alawites in a post-Bashar Assad political order," said Khashan.

While there has been no sign of a split in the military, the protests' momentum has yet to slow.

For every Talkalakh where demonstrations are crushed, others break out. Dozens of protests have erupted across the country. Most recently, the government laid siege to towns along the northern border, sending thousands of refugees streaming into Turkey.

In many ways, Syria's turmoil is not surprising. Across the Middle East, protesters have discovered that creating new governments is far more complicated than driving out old dictators.

The chaos in countries like Libya and Yemen is welcome to the Assad regime, which has carefully mixed vague promises of eventual reform with none-too-subtle warnings that Syria could also spiral into violence.

Government officials blame the protests on mysterious gunmen or Muslim extremists, while warning that Israel or other unnamed foreign powers are stage-managing the demonstrations. The opposition insistently denies any foreign involvement, and the scattered nature of the protests appears to indicate broad grassroots support and little central planning.

Still, dissidents acknowledge they began preparing for protests early this year, when it became clear that calls for democracy were spilling across the Arab world.

According to Ziadeh, an informal exile network smuggled satellite telephones and other communications gear into the country, presuming the government would clamp down on communications if protests began. That equipment has been essential to getting news out through the network of exile-activists. But as for Assad himself, he has been nearly invisible. He has spoken only three times in public since the protests erupted.

For the most part, he uses his speeches to talk about dangerous saboteurs and international conspiracies he insists are out to undermine Syria.

But he also makes clear that violence may be the ultimate answer.

"What is at stake is the homeland," he said in March 30 speech to Parliament. "The Syrian people are peaceful people, loving people, but we have never hesitated in defending our causes, interests and principles, and if we are forced into a battle, so be it."






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02:37 26.06.11

Report: Hezbollah moving arms from Syria to Lebanon, fearing Assad's fall

French Newspaper Le Figaro says hundreds of missiles moved from Syria storage sites to eastern Lebanon; Western expert calls Syria 'the backyard' through which Iran send weapons to Hezbollah.

By Barak Ravid and Amos HarelTags: SyriaIranHezbollah
http://www.haaretz.com/print-editio...yria-to-lebanon-fearing-assad-s-fall-1.369612

In recent weeks Hezbollah has moved hundreds of missiles from storage sites in Syria to bases in eastern Lebanon, the French newspaper Le Figaro reported yesterday. According to the report, Hezbollah moved the missiles over fears that a successor to the failing regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad could sever ties with the organization.


The French daily cites a Western expert who the paper said closely follows relations among Hezbollah and Iran and Syria. The expert is quoted as calling Syria the backyard through which Iran sends weapons to Hezbollah, and said efforts have been made to to send as much weaponry as possible to Lebanon before the fall of the Assad regime.

According to the report, Western intelligence agencies in recent weeks have identified wide-scale movement of trucks over the Syrian-Lebanese border in the Bekaa region carrying rockets and missiles from storage facilities on the Syrian side. Le Figaro said the operation included sophisticated efforts at camouflage and that the United States and Israel have recently stepped up their monitoring of Iranian weapons smuggling.

The report quoted a "Western expert" as saying that intelligence agencies have monitored the movement of trucks from the Syrian border to Lebanon's Bekaa region containing long-range Iranian-produced Zilzal, Fajr-3 and Fajr-4 missiles.

Hezbollah had been storing these missiles in depots in Syria. Some of the depots are secured by Hezbollah personnel while others are located on Syrian military bases. According to the report, the movement of the missiles has been problematic, particularly due to concerns that Israel and other nations are monitoring the trucks with spy satellites.

"Hezbollah fears Israel will bomb the convoys," Le Figaro reported.

The paper added that Hezbollah has moved the missiles using means of camouflage more sophisticated than it has used before.

The report also noted that Syrian intelligence and the Al-Quds force of Iran's Revolutionary Guard recently established a joint operations room at the international airport in Damascus. This step was taken as a result of the lessons learned when an Iranian arms plane was intercepted in Turkey in March. According to the report, the plane, which was on its way from Iran to Syria, was forced to land in Turkey due to a tip American intelligence passed to Turkey. A search of the plane uncovered missiles, mortars and other weapons.

Secret visit

Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, director of Military Intelligence, secretly visited Washington and New York about three weeks ago to meet with White House officials and ambassadors from United Nations Security Council member states over developments in Syria and Lebanon. A knowledgeable Western diplomat said Kochavi warned of the danger of Syrian armaments reaching Hezbollah in the event Assad's regime fell.

Last year Haaretz reported on Hezbollah rocket training over the Syrian border. Now the organization seems to believe its weapons are more secure in Lebanon than in Syria, due to the unrest there.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak has recently said on several occasions that Assad's regime would not survive for more than a few more months. Senior Israeli officials told Haaretz last week that Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guards have an active role in putting down Syrian unrest.

According to international media reports, on several occasions in the past three years Israel has considered attacking convoys transporting weapons from Syria to Lebanon.

Barak has repeatedly said that Israel would take a grave view of arms transfers into Lebanon and would consider taking action against such moves. UN Security Council Resolution 1701, passed after the Second Lebanon War, barred weapons smuggling from Syria to Lebanon but the international community has done little to address the issue.





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17:41 26.06.11

Iran denies EU claims on its involvement in suppressing Syria protests

http://www.haaretz.com/news/interna...vement-in-suppressing-syria-protests-1.369706

Iran accused the European Union of "distorting reality" on Sunday after the bloc slapped sanctions on the Syrian leadership and three high-ranking Iranian officials the EU said was helping Damascus crush dissent.

Alongside extended sanctions on Syria, the EU added three commanders of Iran's Revolutionary Guards - accused of supporting Syrian President Bashar Assad's suppression of anti-government protests -- to a blacklist that imposes travel restrictions and freezes assets.


Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, left, holds up the hand of his Syrian counterpart Bashar Assad after he awarded Iran's highest national medal to Assad, October 2, 2010.

"The EU's baseless claim linking Iran's Revolutionary Guards with Syrian events shows its attempt to target propaganda against the Islamic Republic and to distort reality," Iran's
Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said in a statement.

He denied Tehran was interfering in Syria's internal affairs, saying, "The government and people of Syria enjoy the political and social maturity to resolve their domestic problems."

Iran, which crushed its own anti-government protests after the contested re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in2009, has voiced support for uprisings in most of the Arab world, except in Syria, which has what Iran sees as a "line of resistance" against Israel. Both support militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah.

As part of a drive led by Washington to further isolate Iran which it believes is developing nuclear weapons, the United States blacklisted a major Iranian port operator and its national airline, Iran Air, last Thursday.

The U.S. Treasury said Iran Air and its Iran Air Tours subsidiary had on numerous occasions transported military-related equipment on behalf of the government, including missiles, rockets and titanium sheets, a dual-use material that can be used in advanced weapons systems.

Iran Air Chief Executive Farhad Parvaresh called the sanctions "ineffective and useless".

"Imposing sanctions against Iran's aviation is not something new. It is more than 30 years that Iran air does not have any flights to America," he was quoted as saying by Sharq daily.

The sanctions on Iran Air could increase difficulties in the airline's operations that started last year when airports in many Western countries stopped refuelling its planes because of U.S. sanctions prohibiting the export of refined petroleum products to Iran.

Tehran denies it is seeking nuclear weapons and says it wants atomic technology for power and other peaceful purposes.





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