WAR 08-20-2016-to-08-26-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

[Housecarl]

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https://geopoliticalfutures.com/turkey-and-irans-problems-with-russia-as-an-ally/

Turkey and Iran’s Problems with Russia as an Ally

Aug. 25, 2016 In geopolitics, sometimes distance makes the heart grow fonder.

Reality Check
By George Friedman

Turkey sent troops into Syria yesterday. This caused Russia to declare its unhappiness with Turkey. U.S. Vice President Joe Biden visited Turkey yesterday. The atmosphere may not have been loving, but it was cordial, with none of the venom that had been visible since the coup attempt. The Russians have agreed that to halt operations from Iran’s Hamedan air base, but might return at some point. There is some sort of political battle raging in Iran over giving the Russians permission to use Hamedan in the first place. All of these apparently distinct threads tie together into a single, geopolitical story.

Let’s begin with Iran. Iran has kept its independence for centuries, fending off two threats. One was Turkey, in its Ottoman guise. The other was Russia, both the empire and the Soviet phase. As an example, during World War II, Iran remained formally independent, but was occupied in the north by the Soviets and in the south by the British. After the war, the Soviets showed themselves reluctant to leave. It was American pressure on both the Soviets and the British that restored Iranian independence. It wasn’t American goodness. The Americans opposed Soviet expansion and were undermining the British Empire. Iranian and American interests coincided.

The United States increased its power and influence in Iran, until the Islamic Revolution tore the relationship apart. The United States became Iran’s main adversary, but not its only one. Iran remained extremely cautious about Soviet designs, particularly in the early phase of the Islamic Republic. It remembered its long history with Russia. As for Turkey, it was weak in this period and didn’t present a threat. Iran was hostile to the United States and cautious about Russia.

The recent deal on nuclear weapons was forced through in Iran by factions who argued that a policy of complete hostility toward the United States was undermining the Iranian economy and political interests. Another faction (or several) opposed the deal as a betrayal of Iranian interests and as a capitulation to the United States. This faction, rooted in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, fought and lost the fight. But it did not give up.

For those in this faction, hostility toward the United States was the foundation of Iran’s foreign policy. Given the decline in U.S.-Russian relations, they saw Russia as an alternative to the United States. The government, which negotiated the deal, saw Russia as more dangerous to Iran in the long term, simply because the United States was far away and Russia was very near. To force the situation, someone in the Iranian government gave the Russians permission to use Hamedan air base for strikes against Syria. They apparently did not tell a wide range of people in the government that this was going on. There were apparently a number of flights out of Hamedan before the news broke. When the news broke, the flights were stopped cold. Since then, a political battle has raged in Tehran that has multiple dimensions, including a clash over who is actually in charge.

But at the heart of this infighting is a question over how to align Iran’s foreign policy. Turkey is rising. Russia is engaged in the region. Both of them are potential threats. Some see the alignment of Turkey and Russia as an opportunity for Iran to join the relationship. These are the people who see the United States as the primary threat to all three countries and see such an alliance as a counterweight to the Americans. They see little risk from Turkey or Russia. There is no pro-American faction, but there is a faction that sees the Turks as Iran’s historical nightmare. Very high stakes poker is being played in Tehran.

In the meantime, Turkey has again flipped its position, leaving Iranian supporters of a trilateral alliance swinging in the breeze. Since the coup, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoðan appeared to have forged an unbreakable relationship. Two things indicated that it was not as unbreakable as the Russians might have hoped. One was the fact that the Russians were supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and the Turks were his enemy. After much tap dancing, it became clear that Turkey was not going to shift to Russia’s position on Assad, and therefore a fundamental rift existed between Turkey and Russia. The second indicator was that Turkey continued to allow the United States to use Ýncirlik air base, with only a few hours’ interruption during the coup. The Russians, after some discussion, were denied access to the base. That indicated that whatever the rhetoric or gestures, Turkey was not planning a deep break with the United States.

Today, Turkish troops moved into Syria. About 20 tanks moved a few kilometers into Syria, accompanied by some special forces. There were airstrikes and some artillery shelling. In the general scheme of things, it was a minor move, but was a move carried out in coordination with the United States and not with Russia. There followed a news conference with Biden and Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yýldýrým, and the special relationship between Russia and Turkey seems to have lasted about a month.

The Turks’ problem is the same as the Iranians’ problem. The Russians are Turkey’s historical competitors in the Black Sea and have always coveted the Bosporus, the strait connecting the Black Sea and Mediterranean. For the Russians, taking the Bosporus was the holy grail of its foreign policy. Add competition in the Caucasus, and an increasingly active Russia could prove a significant challenge in these regions. This may sound farfetched, but Russia fighting a war in Syria was once farfetched as well.

Turkey is emerging as a major power, but it has not yet emerged. Embracing Russia certainly would require a shift on Syria. The Russians have offered concessions in Armenia, but in the end, Russia would remain the dominant power, able to reverse what it offered. Plus, as with Iran, Russia is close and not going anywhere. Turkey must have a counterweight to Russia, certainly while it is developing its own power, and the only counterweight available is the United States.

What all this has in common is that without the United States in the mix, Turkey and Iran would have to cope with Russia by themselves, and neither is confident that they can manage that. Both, in different ways, need the United States to stabilize their positions. There is much more consensus on this in Turkey than in Iran, where this issue is generating a significant internal struggle over all aspects of foreign policy. Some see the U.S. as the only threat. Some see the U.S. as a threat that can be balanced.

Still, the discussion is about what role the United States plays in their foreign policy. Turkey is searching for a balance that includes but limits the United States. Iran is searching for a balance where the U.S. is still seen as an untrusted adversary, but can be used anyway to counter the Russians.

For the moment, Russia seems to have lost its leverage in both Turkey and Iran. Given the speed with which Turkey changes its direction these days, nothing is constant. Similarly, for the moment, it has lost is landing rights in Iran and is on the defensive. All this can change. But the geopolitical logic remains intact: a supporter who is far away is less threatening than one nearby. That means that Turkey and Iran will be very cautious with Russia. It also means that both will seek a way to use the United States for its own interests. And the United States will do the same.

-

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[Housecarl]

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-mosul-idUSKCN1101C4

World News | Thu Aug 25, 2016 8:25am EDT

Iraq army captures Qayyara oil region from IS, Abadi says

The Iraqi army has dislodged Islamic State from the Qayyara oil producing region located south of their de facto capital Mosul, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said on Thursday.

"The liberation of Qayyara is an important step toward achieving the larger goal of restoring Mosul province," according to tweets from Abadi's media office.

Iraqi forces last month captured the Qayyara airbase which it plans to use as a hub to support forces advancing on Mosul, 60 km (38 miles) further north.

Abadi hopes to defeat the group this year by capturing Mosul, the largest city under its control in both Iraq and Syria.

The Qayyara region produces heavy sour crude and has a small refinery to process some of the oil.

(Reporting by Maher Chmaytelli and Stephen Kalin; Editing by Richard Balmforth)

 

[Housecarl]

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/sitrep-kurds-retreat-turks-staying-115538454.html

SitRep: Kurds Retreat, Turks Staying in Syria; Assad’s New Chemical Weapons

August 25, 2016

Assad’s chemical weapons. A U.N.-authorized investigation has concluded that both the Assad regime in Syria and the Islamic State have used chemical weapons in Syria in recent years, “the first time that the United Nations has officially assigned blame for the use of outlawed weapons in Syria’s five-and-a-half year conflict,” FP’s Colum Lynch reports. The Syrian government carried out at least two chemical weapons attacks in 2014 and 2015, while ISIS shelled a Syrian village with mustard gas in the summer of 2015, according to the report. A copy of the report, which is confidential, was obtained by Foreign Policy.

Turkey increases Syria ops. After its lightning strike into Syria Wednesday morning, it looks like Turkish forces may be planning to stay awhile. On Thursday, Turkey drove nine more tanks over the border into the Syrian town of Jarablus, increasing the number to about 20, while more gear looks to be on the way. “We need construction machinery to open up roads” a Turkish official said Thursday, “and we may need more in the days ahead. We also have armored personnel carriers that could be used on the Syrian side. We may put them into service as needed.”

Kurds in the crosshairs. Soon after Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army rebels — some of whom are graduates of last year’s failed Pentagon program to train “vetted” Syrian fighters — took Jarablus from the Islamic State on Wednesday, it became clear who the real target of the op was: U.S.-backed Kurdish rebels. FP’s Paul McLeary and Dan De Luce write that after the Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces took the Syrian town of Manbij last week, Turkey felt it needed to stop them from pushing north. And given the need for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to flex some muscle after the failed military coup in July, it was “strategically opportune and politically opportune to launch this now,” Aaron Stein, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, told FP.

Kurds pull back. The Turks demanded the Kurds leave Manbij and pull east of the Euphrates River, and spokesman for the U.S.-led coalition in Baghdad, Col. John Dorrian tweeted Thursday that they did just that. The “main element of SDF Manbij liberation force has gone east; some forces remain to finish clearing, IED removal as planned,” he wrote, and they have “moved east across the Euphrates to prepare for the eventual liberation of Raqqa, Syria.”

Defense officials told the Washington Post that the Turkey-based Syrian forces had been conducting small scale operations in Syria for months, and in keeping with an FP report this past spring, U.S. and Turkish special operations forces had continued recruiting Syrian fighters even after the original American train and equip program flamed out late last year.

Russia to Turkey: Thanks but no thanks. One thing that might make the whole situation just a bit less complicated is that Russian officials tell the Air Force Times that despite recent reports, they have no plans to start flying missions into Syria from Incirlik air base in Turkey, which the Turks had suggested earlier this month. Secretary of State John Kerry is set to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov this week to make one last effort to hammer out an agreement between the two countries, the AP reports, but before talks can begin, “U.S. officials say it is imperative that Russia use its influence with Syrian President Bashar Assad to halt attacks on moderate opposition forces, open humanitarian aid corridors, and concentrate any offensive action on the Islamic State group and other extremists not covered by what has become a largely ignored truce.”

Ludicrous speed! The U.S. Navy’s guided missile destroyer USS Nitze had a close call Wednesday when four Iranian small boats — with guns uncovered — approached at high speed while ignoring warnings to back off. The boats only held up once they were within about 300 yards, U.S. officials say. The incident occurred in international waters in the crowded Strait of Hormuz, (video here) and follows several other incidents in recent months. Last December, Iranian ships popped off several rockets near a U.S. warship, and a month later Tehran flew an unarmed drone over the USS Harry S. Truman in the Persian Gulf. The most serious event came in January, when the Iranians seized U.S. Navy sailors piloting two small patrol boats, holding them for several hours before letting them go after they strayed into Iranian waters. FP’s Dan De Luce had the details here.

Toll rises. The U.S. Central Command announced Wednesday it may have killed civilians in an air strike near the Islamic State’s de facto capital in Raqqa, Syria. In a statement, the command said, “a non-military vehicle drove into the target area after the weapon was released from the aircraft,” and “the vehicle’s occupants may have perished as a result of the strike.” It is continuing the investigation. Last month, Centcom announced that between July 2015 and April, it had inadvertently killed 14 civilians in Iraq and Syria.

Good morning and as always, if you have any thoughts, announcements, tips, or national security-related events to share, please pass them along to SitRep HQ. Best way is to send them to: paul.mcleary@foreignpolicy.com or on Twitter: @paulmcleary or @arawnsley

Colombia

In a historic deal, Colombia’s government and Marxist FARC rebels have finally reached a deal to end the 50-year war which has claimed the lives of 220,000 people. Under the agreement, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) will lay down arms and begin the process of reintegrating its fighters into civilian life. The agreement will now go to a plebiscite vote on Oct. 2. “Today I can say – from the bottom of my heart – that I have fulfilled the mandate that you gave me,” said President Juan Manuel Santos, who was re-elected in 2014 on the promise of a peace deal.

Bots o’ war

The Army wants to turn its counter battery radar into a drone killer. IHS Jane’s reports that the service wants to use its AN/TPQ-53 radar system, which pinpoints the location of incoming small artillery, to spot small drones. The “urgent operational requirement” would add the capability to differentiate between targets, allowing operators to track and characterize drones in addition to its traditional responsibility identifying the origin of rocket and mortar fire.

Germany

The Germans are willing participants in the U.S.-led coalition battling the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, but they might not be tenants of Turkey’s Incirlik air base much longer. Berlin is looking for ways to reposition its six Tornado reconnaissance jets from the base given Ankara’s continued refusal to allow German lawmakers to visit the facility. The scrap stems from Ankara’s objection to a resolution passed by the German parliament in June that branded the 1915 massacre of Armenians by Ottoman forces a “genocide.” That, apparently, didn’t go over well in Ankara.

A-10

The Government Accountability Office dropped a new report Wednesday declaring that the U.S. Air Force doesn’t have enough information to support its decision to scrap its fleet of A-10 Warthogs. Flight Global writes that the news “will likely fuel support on Capitol Hill, where US lawmakers have already fought the USAF to keep the A-10 in its inventory. The Air Force and Congress have sparred for years over whether to retire the aircraft and language in the Fiscal 2017 National Defence Authorization Act prohibits the A-10 divestment.”

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
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http://www.voanews.com/a/south-kore...nventional-detterence-is-failing/3480128.html

Asia

South Korean Nuclear Proponents: Conventional Deterrence is Failing

August 25, 2016
Brian Padden

SEOUL — South Korean advocates of nuclear deterrence say the government in Seoul must pursue its own nuclear weapons programs to defend against North Korea’s growing nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities.

Song Dae-sung, a political science professor at Kunkuk University in Seoul and author of the book Let’s Have Nuclear Power makes the case for a nuclear armed South Korea.

“If North Korea becomes a nuclear-armed state and its adversary does not own nuclear power, then the non-nuclear state becomes a slave or hostage of the nuclear state. This is a basic principle of international politics,” said Song.

National Assembly Representative Won Yoo-chul, a leader within of the ruling Saenuri Party, has also been a strong nuclear advocate.

Won has put together a study group in the parliamentary National Defense Committee to assess the risks and benefits of South Korea pursuing its own nuclear program. “The most efficient way to deter nuclear warfare is to have nukes for our self-defense,” Won has said.

Growing threat

Seoul’s nuclear proponents argue that the international sanctions imposed on North Korea for its fourth nuclear test and most recent long-range rocket launch have so far not deterred Pyongyang.

Since the sanctions were imposed, the North Korean military has accelerated its ballistic missile development by conducting numerous launches, and satellite images show signs that the North’s Yongbyon reactor site has resumed producing plutonium used in nuclear bombs.

On Thursday North Korean state media reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un supervised the most recent submarine-launched ballistic missile test and declared it "the greatest success" that put the country in the "front rank" of nuclear military powers.

Self-reliance

Nuclear proponents say South Korea cannot leave its fate in the hands of China or the U.S.

Beijing has been reluctant to vigorously enforce sanctions, they say, because it needs a stable counterbalance to the superior conventional forces of the South Korean-U.S. Military alliance.

And Donald Trump, the Republican candidate for president, has cast doubt on the U.S. policy of providing extended nuclear deterrence in the region by questioning America’s commitment to protect South Korea.

“If the U.S. elects a president who makes such an argument, then South Korea needs to own nuclear power all the more,” said Song.

Negative consequences

However, South Korean President Park Geun-hye supports the current deterrence and containment regime that involves a close military alliance with the United States and increasing international pressure on the North Korean government.

Opponents of arming South Korea with nuclear weapons say it would unravel the security architecture that has maintained peace in the region for decades.

“Those guys arguing for the possession of nuclear weapons are first, shortsighted, second, they do not understand the negative consequences of that kind of move, and third, that would lead to a nuclear domino on the Korean Peninsula in Northeast Asia,” said Moon Chung-in, a political science professor with Yonsei University.

While some supporters contend that a nuclear South Korea would exert pressure on North Korea or China, opponents argue it would actually dissipate international support for North Korean sanctions.

“Who I think would absolutely be thrilled with such a development would be North Korea, because if the ROK (Republic of Korea) were to pursue its own nuclear deterrence then it would justify everything they have done,” said regional security analyst Daniel Pinkston with Troy University in Seoul.

NPT

The United Nations might also impose economic and diplomatic sanctions on South Korea for developing nuclear weapons in violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) it signed as a non-nuclear weapons state.

North Korea’s withdraw from the NPT in 2003 is a major justification for the current sanctions in place against it.

However the South’s nuclear supporters say Seoul could invoke Article 10 of the NPT, which allows for a withdraw from the treaty when extraordinary events jeopardize national interests, by citing the North’s nuclear threat.

A nuclear South Korea could also weaken the close military alliance between Seoul and Washington and the need for large American conventional forces on the Korean Peninsula.

“It will be very difficult for the Americans, who are very sympathetic with South Korea’s national security conditions, (to) argue that South Korea needs both its own nuclear weapons, and men and women of the United States sacrificing their safety in defense of South Korea,” said Bong Young-shik with the Yonsei University Institute for North Korean Studies.

Critics argue that Japan would also likely follow suit and acquire its own nuclear weapons, further increasing regional tensions and the potential for nuclear war in Asia.

Youmi Kim in Seoul contributed to this report.

 

[Housecarl]

And remember that South Africa still has the full nuclear fuel cycle....

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Posted for fair use.....
http://city-press.news24.com/Business/africa-fails-nuclear-compliance-20160819

Africa fails nuclear compliance

Godfrey Mutizwa
2016-08-25 06:51

African countries remain the least compliant in implementing global nuclear security safeguards because of a lack of resources and know-how, making the continent vulnerable to terror groups.

Africa had by the end of last year on average implemented a third of the nuclear weapons safeguards required by the UN Security Council under its 1540 Committee, which oversees nuclear security globally.

That compares with 43% in Asia-Pacific, 83% in eastern Europe and over 90% in some developed economies, according to Professor Michael Rosenthal, an expert on the 1540 Committee.

While there were more than 1 000 nuclear sites around the world, only five of the continent’s 54 territories had nuclear sites, Rosenthal said, naming South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Algeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo, whose facility probably wasn’t working any more.

“I think it is certainly a big threat,’’ Rosenthal said at the 77th biennial International Law Conference held in Johannesburg this month.

“The priority is to have action plans and determine the potential, whether it’s nuclear, chemical or biological.”

One explanation for the low compliance rate was that, as the continent did not have many nuclear sites, governments did not feel compelled to divert scarce resources to a perceived threat, said Rosenthal.

The 1540 Committee, so called because it was set up to police the implementation of UN Resolution 1540, requires all UN members to commit politically that they will not provide any form of support to non-state groups attempting to develop, acquire, transport or possess weapons of mass destruction.

All member nations are required to enact laws and adopt domestic controls that prevent the development and spread of such weapons.

This was the only UN resolution that was obligatory for all member states and required members to “control borders to combat illicit trafficking”, Rosenthal said in his presentation.

A report presented by International Law Conference experts calls for legal and political commitments to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, while allowing peaceful use.

South Africa, which runs two nuclear power stations generating about 5% of its output, plans to add 9.6 gigawatts of nuclear power by 2030, a project critics have said was too expensive at R80 761 per kilowatt.

 

[Housecarl]

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-launches-large-snap-military-drills-090448647.html

Russia launches large snap military drills

AFP•August 25, 2016

Moscow (AFP) - Russia on Thursday launched large-scale snap military drills, putting its troops on full combat readiness in districts bordering Ukraine and the Baltic states, the defence minister said.

"In accordance with the decision of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (President Vladimir Putin), a spot check started today," Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said in televised comments.

Troops in the country's southern, central and western military districts, as well as the air force, northern fleet and paratroopers were in "full combat" mode as of 0400 GMT, he said.

The drills -- which are taking place in military districts that encompass the contested Crimea peninsula, the region that borders Ukraine and NATO members Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, as well as territory spanning from the Ural mountains to central Siberia -- are set to last until the end of the month.

Shoigu did not reveal how many troops are taking part in the exercises.

Relations between NATO and Russia have soured since Moscow annexed the Crimea peninsula of Ukraine in March 2014, and eastern European countries are worried that they too could be targets of Russian aggression.

NATO vowed at a summit in Warsaw in July to bolster its eastern flank to counter a resurgent Russia, agreeing to deploy four battalions in Poland and the Baltic states.

Moscow slammed the decision, accusing NATO of working to counter a "non-existent threat."

Since Moscow annexed Crimea from Ukraine in March 2014, Russia has stepped up its military presence in the peninsula, which is home to its Black Sea fleet.

Russia's most advanced air defence system, the S-400, was delivered to Crimea earlier this month.

View Comments (67)

 

[Housecarl]

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Posted for fair use.....
https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column/strategic-view/facing-new-reality-homegrown-terrorism-1089

Facing the New Reality of Homegrown Terrorism

August 25, 2016 | David Shedd

"If you know the enemy and know yourself," Sun Tzu once wrote, "you need not fear the results of a hundred battles." When it comes to the War on Terrorism, unfortunately, we have a lot to fear.

The pace of these attacks has become so frequent that we risk gradually becoming inured to their horror that has played out in Brussels, Paris, Dhaka, Baghdad, Riyadh, San Bernardino, Orlando, and Nice.

Each time, we mourn the loss of life, investigate the backgrounds of the killers, and then move on to something else, because we truthfully don’t want to face the hard reality of the spread of homegrown terrorism.

The horrific attack in Orlando has begun to fade from memory. But what has become yesterday’s news still holds critical questions for what we will undoubtedly face in the future.

A significant shift is underway in how Jihadists operate. Groups such as ISIL (also known as ISIS) are encouraging isolated individuals to carry out attacks against soft targets with whatever weapons they have at hand.

Orlando demonstrated that we are unprepared for this new phase in the war on terror. Hard questions have gone unanswered: How could 29 year-old Omar Mir Seddique Mateen been under FBI investigation twice for Islamic extremist ties, yet still manage to kill 49 people and wound 53 more?

Despite clear signs of radicalization, Mateen dropped off the FBI’s radar for the past two years. What warnings were missed? And what measures could the Bureau have taken to thwart this attack?

In the absence of better information from the Bureau, we don’t know precisely why Mateen was dropped as a person of interest. What is apparent, however, is that the FBI had information pointing to his radicalization.

We can expect more terrorists such as Omar Mateen. Islamic extremist groups have mastered the use of social media to inspire individuals, including Americans, to commit violence on their behalf. These decentralized attacks are orders of magnitude more difficult to interdict, since they can occur anytime and anywhere without prior communications or support. These “crowd-sourced” terror attacks have become more commonplace. And while they are smaller in scale, the attacks are very effective in spreading fear by the Islamic terrorists.

To address this new threat, the U.S. must take painful but necessary legal and policy measures to increase our domestic counter-terror capabilities. The recent attacks provide three lessons that we should act on immediately.

First, the FBI needs to have broader legal authority to keep a watchful eye on potential homegrown terrorists. After 9/11, Congress amended the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) to address so-called “lone wolves,” who are not directly connected to a terrorist organization. However, the law only applies to non-U.S. persons and requires probable cause that a crime is about to be committed.

Congress should further amend FISA to include U.S. persons who have identified themselves to any degree with Islamic extremist violence. While there are of course civil liberty concerns, the surveillance requests would be subject to FISA Court renewals at least every 90 days (the same as the current duration for U.S. citizens suspected of being an agent of an international terrorist organization).

It is critical that the FBI not only have the authority to electronically observe someone with Mateen’s profile for short periods when necessary, but also the flexibility to lightly monitor those suspected individuals over longer periods. This capability is vital, since the radicalization process can occur slowly over many years but then transition rapidly into violent acts.

For instance, given Mateen’s known proclivity for Islamic-inspired violence, the Bureau could have maintained an active dialogue with Mateen’s employers to identify further changes in his behavior. Mateen could also have been placed on the “Known and Appropriately Suspected” (KRT) list, so that his purchase of a firearm would have been flagged.

Second, the FBI and other counter terror agencies must focus on dismantling the eco-system that inspires homegrown terrorists. Contrary to what many pundits claim, homegrown terrorists are not isolated “lone wolves” acting independently out of deranged motives. They are deeply connected to the violent Islamist ideology, which is promoted by terrorist propagandists, radical Muslim clerics, and a network of followers that promote violence by interpreting the Koran literally.

The term “lone-wolf” therefore implies a false disconnect between the would-be attacker and the source of inspiration. While it will remain difficult to stop individual crowd-sourced attacks, it is far more feasible to counter the network attempting to inspire them.

The FBI and other counter-terror agencies must aggressively pursue and dismantle this eco-system, both within the US and abroad, using all capabilities at their disposal.

Third, we need to dedicate the necessary resources to match the scope and scale of the homegrown terror threat.

The FBI currently faces a significant manpower shortage to face this new phase in the war on terror – in fact, the NYPD alone has more officers than the Bureau has agents – and terrorism, while still the top priority, is not the only task on its overloaded plate. After the Orlando attack, the FBI indicated that the volume of investigations into potential Islamic extremist threats has been overwhelming.

Unfortunately, we don’t have the luxury of tailoring our threats to our resources. The government must look seriously at what’s needed to combat homegrown terrorism. Whether it’s a problem of inadequate manpower, insufficient “rules of engagement,” ineffective investigative techniques, or some combination of the three, we need to figure it out and fix it – fast.

As Leon Trotsky aptly put it: “You may not be interested in war, but war is interested in you.” Unless we recognize that reality and change our approach accordingly, we won’t succeed in this new phase in the long war against radical Islam.


The Author is David Shedd

David R. Shedd is a former acting director of the Defense Intelligence Agency and is a visiting distinguished fellow in The Heritage Foundation’s Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy.

 

[Possible Impact]

Oryx ‏@oryxspioenkop 5h
Iran's copy of the Russian VA-111 Shkval supercavitating torpedo
launched out of a North Korean torpedo tube.

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://38north.org/2016/08/sohae082516/

Upgraded Security at North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station

By 38 North
25 August 2016

A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.

Summary

Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates that North Korea has upgraded security measures for the Sohae Satellite Launching Station and surrounding area. While the upgrades are likely tied to the master construction plan, they may also indicate that the launch facility could soon be occupied by NADA and KPA scientists, engineers, technicians and support personnel. Upgraded security may also reflect a growing North Korean concern of intelligence collection by foreign governments using defectors from the area or outside agents to infiltrate and collect information.

Upgraded Security Perimeters

As part of the initial phases of construction at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station in 2000, a guard position and entrance were established at the point where the main access road entered the valley in which the launch facility was being built, thereby separating it from the nearby villages (the largest of which was Tongchang-ri). By December 2004, a second guard position and entrance were built about 2.6 kilometers to the northeast of the first. Both these guard and entrance positions had short fences on either side of the road.

Figure 1. The inner and outer security perimeters of the Sohae Satellite Launching Station.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Initially, these two positions served as anchors for inner and outer security perimeters that consisted of simple footpaths on top of the surrounding hills for security troops to patrol along. Subsequently, these patrol paths were expanded and connected so that by 2009, they formed both a basic outer security perimeter encompassing a dozen villages, the largest of which was Tongchang-ri, and an inner security perimeter that encompassed the Sohae launch facility proper.

Beginning around 2011, improvements to the outer perimeter began and proceeded slowly, converting the basic perimeter into a more capable security perimeter by widening existing patrol paths, erecting fences and adjusting the perimeter alignment. In May 2015, construction began on a new guard position and entrance on the outer perimeter northeast of Tongchang-ri. By December, this was complete and the old position razed. Along the inner security perimeter, the existing patrol paths were widened and fences were erected.

Today, the outer security perimeter is 27 kilometers long, encompassing 28 square kilometers and 12 villages. The inner security perimeter is 19 kilometers long, encompassing 15 square kilometers and the Sohae launch facility proper. Where these perimeters touched the coast, they were connected to preexisting coastal defense patrol roads.

Figure 2. Upgrades to outer security perimeter.


Before image © 2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. After image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

Figure 3. Upgrades to inner security perimeter.


Before image © 2016 DigitalGlobe, Inc. After image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

Housing Projects within Outer Perimeter

In 2014, construction of two housing projects within the outer perimeter took place. The first was 19-unit development, 800 meters north of the inner entrance. The second was a 16-unit housing development for workers at the livestock farm 1.5 kilometers to the northeast. There is no hard information on who lives within this outer perimeter, however, some analysts believe that the population consists mainly of the original farming and fishing communities, supplemented by construction workers, KPA and other security troops.

Figure 4. Housing area within the outer perimeter built in 2014.


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Figure 5. Housing area for livestock facility within the outer perimeter built in 2014.


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Why Upgrade Security?

While the upgraded security measures are likely tied to the master construction plan for the Sohae Satellite Launching Station, they may also indicate that the launch facility could soon be occupied by NADA and KPA scientists, engineers, technicians and support personnel. Upgraded security measures may also reflect a growing North Korean concern of intelligence collection by foreign governments using defectors from the area or outside agents to infiltrate and collect information.

Found in section: Satellite Imagery

 

[TammyinWI]

US Fires Warning Shots (*fair use)

First on CNN: US fires warning shots at Iranian vessel after close encounter


(CNN) — A US Navy patrol craft fired three warning shots at an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps boat Wednesday after US officials said it had harassed that patrol craft, CNN has learned.

Another US patrol craft and a Kuwaiti Navy ship were also harassed in the incident, which took place in the northern end of the Persian Gulf.

At one point, the Iranian boat came within 200 yards of one of the US Navy boats. When it failed to leave the area after the Navy had fired flares and had a radio conversation with the Iranian crew, the US officials said, the USS Squall fired three warning shots. Following standard maritime procedures, the Navy fired the three shots into the water to ensure the Iranians understood they needed to leave the immediate area.

Iran nuclear deal one year out: The good, bad, and ugly

State Department spokeswoman Elizabeth Trudeau said incidents like this one "unnecessarily escalate tensions," adding that the US doesn't know Iran's intentions.

Continued here, includes video:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/24/polit...e-within-300-yards-of-us-destroyer/index.html

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-somalia-attacks-idUSKCN11026H?il=0

WORLD NEWS | Thu Aug 25, 2016 3:15pm EDT

Al Shabaab militants bomb Somali beach restaurant, gunfight ongoing

By Abdi Sheikh and Feisal Omar | MOGADISHU
Al Shabaab militants attacked a beach restaurant in the capital Mogadishu on Thursday, with gunmen raiding the building after setting off a car bomb, police and the insurgent group said.

Sporadic shooting could be heard as night fell, Reuters witnesses said.

It was not clear how many casualties there might be.

"A car bomb exploded at Banadir beach restaurant at Lido beach and there is exchange of gunfire. We have no other details so far," police officer Major Ahmed Ibrahim told Reuters.

Al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab's military operation spokesman Abdiasis Abu Musab said the group was responsible for the attack.

"We attacked the Banadir beach restaurant and now our fighters are fighting inside it," he told Reuters.

Al Shabaab, has carried out a series of deadly attacks in Somalia to try to topple the Western-backed government.

In January, its militants stormed another restaurant on Lido beach, killing 17 people.

On Sunday, more than 20 people were killed when its suicide bombers detonated two car bombs at a local government headquarters in Somalia's semi-autonomous Puntland region.

On Thursday, Reuters witnesses near the scene of the beach attack said the restaurant had been sealed off by security officers and that the attackers had lobbed grenades at the officers and fired at them.

They said they had also seen two bodies lying on the ground.

Internal Security Minister Abdirizak Omar Mohamed said on his Twitter account: "Warning: People near the blast scene should stay in the hotels and in their houses in which they are inside. Cars should not enter Lido beach area."

Al Shabaab was pushed out of Mogadishu by the African Union peacekeeping force AMISOM in 2011 but has remained a potent threat in Somalia, launching frequent attacks aimed at overthrowing the Western-backed government.

In a separate incident in southern Somalia, a roadside bomb believed to have been planted by al Shabaab militants wounded at three people in Baardheere town in Gedo region, Colonel Hussein Nur, a police officer in the town, told Reuters by phone.

(Additional reporting by Abdirahman Hussein; Writing by George Obulutsa; Editing by Louise Ireland)

 

[Housecarl]

Even without the RoK-US agreement, the NPT allows member states to make weapons grade U-235 or Pu-239 as long as it is slated for use for naval propulsion reactors. Interesting loop hole huh?......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://english.donga.com/List/3/01/26/730529/1

Controversies over nuclear-powered submarines resurface

Posted August. 26, 2016 07:15, Updated August. 26, 2016 07:22

Nuclear-powered submarines are holding the limelight as countermeasure against the threat from North Korea’s Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBM) for their performance in covertness and striking power that overshadows conventional (diesel-powered) submarines. Conventional models are more likely to be detected by enemy in the process of emerging above the surface of the waters to replenish oxygen for their storage batteries. For proper operation, conventional submarines need to charge their batteries two or three times a day, each for one to two hours, which makes it highly likely for them to be seen and struck by anti-submarine forces such as the maritime operation helicopter. While there are more enhanced diesel-powered submarines, which generate oxygen with fuel cells, even with those, under-water operation can only last a maximum two hours.

By contrast, nuclear-powered submarines can stay under water practically for an unlimited span of time and move twice faster than their conventional counterparts. In other words, South Korea can use nuclear-powered submarines to monitor and track down North Korean submarines armed with ballistic missiles long enough, and in case of emergencies, they can evacuate quickly after striking their strategic target. This explains why some of the most advanced countries are running nuclear-powered submarines as a strategic weapon.

In 2003, the South Korean military had been pushing for a behind-the-scenes project to build three units of 4,000-ton nuclear submarines by 2020 under the Roh Moo-hyun administration, but the project was suspended after the project details were leaked out. “If the project had not been suspended, two nuclear submarines would have been combat-ready by now, and they would have served us greatly in dealing with the threats from North Korea’s nuclear weapons,” an official from the South Korean Navy said.

South Korea has the necessary technologies to develop small-sized nuclear reactors for 3,000 to 4,000-ton submarines, and it can also conduct uranium enrichment programs with the cap of 20 percent of enrichment levels pursuant to the revision to the Korea-U.S. nuclear cooperation agreement. Some experts project that South Korea will be able to build a nuclear submarine in the similar class to that of the French submarines such as Rubis (2,500 ton) or Barracuda (4,000 ton), in several years. Hurdles remain, however, such as the expected opposition from China and Russia and the tricky job of persuading the U.S. “During the early 2000s, the South Korean military tried to build nuclear submarines to secure strategic weapons against the North and neighboring countries," said a military official. "Of course, it won’t be easy to persuade the U.S. or cover the costs, but as nuclear threats from the North are extremely worsening, more will endorse the project to counter North Korea.”

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.chron.com/crime/article/Video-shows-cartel-assassins-overwhelm-Mexico-9184176.php

Video shows cartel gunmen overwhelm Mexico police

Fernando Ramirez
Published 1:34 pm, Thursday, August 25, 2016

Recent footage shows part of an armed conflict that resulted in Gulf Cartel gunmen overtaking Mexico's Federal Police.

According to Blog del Narco, federal police in Reynosa chased a cartel-driven car into a residential neighborhood last week. When the two groups began exchanging fire, an SUV with cartel reinforcements arrived at the scene and gunfire intensified.

READ MORE: Five dead and six injured after cartel uses social media to warn of imminent violence

Video

"Lets get the f*** out of here," the woman driving the car said in Spanish.

"They're right there. Wait until they leave, they shot at the federal police," says the person filming. Suddenly, more gunfire erupts and the driver quickly peels away.

READ MORE: Maps that explain the world's drug trade

After the video ends, a third cartel car eventually arrives at the scene causing police to retreat, reports Blog Del Narco. There are currently no reports of death or injury.

Tamaulipas, the state where the video was filmed, is the center of operations for the Gulf Cartel. In-fighting among factions of the cartel have resulted in increased violence in the area, which borders Texas along the Rio Grande near Brownsville.

In 2015, FBI statics showed the region was No. 1 in total kidnappings for two years in a row. More than 5,705 people have been reported missing since 2010. As a result, the Department of State Travel warns U.S. citizens against traveling to the entire region.

Check out the leaders above who run the Gulf Cartel.

A video filmed by local residents shows a small piece of the conflict when the fighting begins. A man and woman are parked on the street filming a police car as gunshots are heard.

-----

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.latimes.com/world/mexico-americas/la-fg-peru-death-squads-20160824-snap-story.html

World / MEXICO & THE AMERICAS

Strong evidence suggests a Peruvian police 'death squad' set up and killed criminal suspects


Peru police

Peruvian police officers stand guard during the inauguration of President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski in Lima in July. Members of the national police are suspected of creating a "death squad" to target and kill criminal suspects. (Rodrigo Abd / Associated Press)

By Adriana Leon

August 24, 2016, 11:40 AM |Reporting from Lima, Peru

Nine members of Peru’s national police are being investigated on suspicion of participating in a “death squad” responsible for as many as 27 killings carried out to secure promotions and impress superiors, government officials said.

One police general, a commander and seven officers are suspected of having organized at least six bogus police operations from 2011 to 2015 that resulted in the deaths. While most of the victims had criminal pasts, at least 11 people killed during the operations had no police records, investigators say.

A source within a special investigative committee formed by recently inaugurated President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski told the Los Angeles Times late Tuesday that investigators believe corrupt police using intermediaries persuaded delinquents to carry out robberies and then killed them during the heists to gain performance points.

The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the investigation is ongoing, said the special committee’s report was given to the interior ministry’s special prosecutor for organized crime Tuesday night, but it still has not been made public.

The report recommends that the nine officers be suspended from duty until the prosecutor’s investigation is completed, the source said.

New interior minister and Kuczynski appointee Carlos Basombrio ordered the special committee investigation after the daily newspaper La Republica reported in July that 96 members of the national police were being investigated on suspicion of having been involved in extra-official executions of criminal suspects.

On Monday, interior Vice Minister Ruben Vargas told reporters that a “criminal group” had functioned within the national police as a “death squad on a national level” to commit “false positives,” or extrajudicial killings.

“There exists serious evidence that this irregular group … murdered delinquents in false operations,” Vargas told reporters. The same nine officers participated in each of the police actions under investigation, he said.

The special committee report singled out police Commander Enrique Prado as a prime suspect in organizing the death squad. It also said investigators were aided by police informants who told of civilian intermediaries being paid by the police to persuade criminals to commit “apparently easy” robberies against banks and businessmen.

The intermediaries would then tell police when the robberies were to take place so they could catch the suspects in the act and kill them in what seemed to be “risky confrontations.” The incidents occurred in Lima and several regions of the country.

Commander Prado “organized everything and gained a promotion and the congratulations from his bosses,” the informant told investigators.

Prado’s attorney, Isaac Nonalaya, denied that his client was responsible for the killings. Commenting to La Republica this week, Nonalaya accused the informants of acting on “economic need to make false accusations. My client is an honorable and irreproachable policeman.”

Special correspondent Leon is based in Lima. Special correspondent Chris Kraul in Bogota, Colombia, contributed to this report.

ALSO

As Venezuela’s farms and factories falter, the country struggles to feed its people

Grainy footage appears to show kidnapping of son of Mexican cartel leader ‘El Chapo’

Protesters say a massacre took place in this Mexican town. Now it’s become a rallying cry against the government

 

[Housecarl]

This really gets rolling it's going to make the regime change in Romania look like a peaceful process......

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-zimbabwe-protest-idUSKCN1110Q6

World News | Fri Aug 26, 2016 7:55am EDT

Zimbabwe protesters, police clash at anti-Mugabe rally

By MacDonald Dzirutwe | HARARE

Zimbabwean police on Friday fired teargas and a water cannon to disperse anti-government supporters, who responded by hurling rocks, as a protest against President Robert Mugabe turned violent, a Reuters witness said.

More than a hundred police officers in riot gear, backed up by water cannons and armored trucks, occupied the venue that opposition parties planned to use for their march.

Mugabe's opponents have become emboldened by rising public anger and protests over an economic meltdown, cash shortages and high unemployment. Mugabe, 92, has led Zimbabwe since independence from Britain in 1980.

As opposition supporters arrived for the march, they were told by the police to leave. The officers then fired teargas and a water cannon when parts of the crowd refused to comply, a Reuters witness reported.

A few dozen supporters, who earlier chanted anti-Mugabe slogans, threw rocks at the police and burned tyres on the roadside near the square where the protest was due to start.

"We are not going anywhere and demonstrating is the only solution left to force the dictator out of office," said Tapfuma Make, an unemployed 24-year-old from Chitungwiza town, south of the capital Harare.

Zimbabwe's High Court ruled that police should allow the protest to proceed between 12 p.m. - 4 p.m. (1000-1400 GMT).

"We view this as a victory for democracy. The demonstration is going ahead," MDC secretary general Douglas Mwonzora told reporters following the court's decision.

Opposition parties leading the protests say the electoral commission is biased in favor of the ruling ZANU-PF and is run by security agencies loyal to Mugabe, charges the commission denies.


Related Coverage
Zimbabwe police fire tear gas at opposition leaders: Reuters witness


The protesters want the next vote in 2018 to be supervised by international observers, including the United Nations. They are also calling for Mugabe to fire corrupt ministers, scrap plans to introduce local bank notes and end cash shortages.

Opposition leader and head of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), Morgan Tsvangirai, and former vice president Joice Mujuru will lead the demonstration, which they expect to draw thousands of supporters.

Zimbabwe's police used teargas and a water cannon on Wednesday to break-up a march by MDC youth supporters who were protesting over economic mismanagement and what they say is brutality by security agencies.


(Writing by Joe Brock; Editing by James Macharia and Toby Chopra)

 

[Housecarl]

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/293490-north-korea-says-it-can-nuke-us-mainland

August 26, 2016, 03:55 pm

North Korea says it can nuke US mainland

By Nikita Vladimirov
Comments 20

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Friday claimed the U.S. mainland is now within range of his country's nuclear weapons, according to a report from Public Radio International (PRI).

The statement comes after North Korea successfully tested its first submarine-launched missile.

But a former U.S. nuclear negotiator with North Korea, Joel Wit, told PRI the U.S. is not in danger.

"We’re not within striking range of their nuclear weapons," he said.
Wit said there is ground for alarm over North Korea's nuclear development, however.

"This is just one more step in terms of steady progress that North Korea is making in building nuclear weapons and building missiles to deliver them.”

He said the larger worry should be North Korea's current Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) project.

“I’m concerned, and I think it should be ongoing concern for everyone,” he said. “If they get that thing [ICBM] working then they will be able to reach the United States, and that, of course, is a serious concern for all of us."

As of today, North Korea does not possess the ability to miniaturize their nuclear weapons into a small warhead or launch their missiles beyond a range of 600 miles the report added.