WAR 06-18-2016-to-06-24-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

Housecarl

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-usa-china-idUSKCN0Z82RD

World | Wed Jun 22, 2016 6:43pm EDT
Related: World, China, South China Sea

U.S. warns China against provocations once court rules on sea claims

WASHINGTON | By David Brunnstrom and Matt Spetalnick


The United States warned China on Wednesday against taking "additional provocative actions" following an impending international court ruling on the South China Sea that is expected to largely reject Beijing's broad territorial claims.

A senior State Department official voiced skepticism at China's claim that dozens of countries backed its position in a case the Philippines has brought against Beijing and vowed that Washington would uphold U.S. defense commitments.

Colin Willett, deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asia, said Washington had "a lot of options" to respond to any such Chinese moves in a region she said was vital to U.S. interests. She also made clear that with a ruling expected possibly within weeks, the United States was working to rally sometimes wavering allies and partners in the region to ensure a unified front.

How Washington handles the aftermath of the ruling is widely seen as a test of U.S. credibility in a region where it has been the dominant security presence since World War Two but is now struggling to contain an increasingly assertive China.

"We, the United States, do have very clear national interests in the area," Willett told Reuters.

"We have an interest in upholding our defense commitments and our security partnerships."

The Philippines is contesting China's claim to an area shown on its maps as a nine-dash line stretching deep into the maritime heart of Southeast Asia, covering hundreds of disputed islands and reefs and encompassing a vital global trade route.

The consensus among officials and analysts inside and out the region is that the ruling will go largely against Beijing.


U.S. WARNINGS

U.S. officials have warned China against declaring an air defense identification zone in the South China Sea, as it did in the East China Sea in 2013, and against stepping up its building and fortification of artificial islands.

They say that beyond diplomatic pressure, the U.S. response to such moves could include accelerated "freedom-of-navigation" patrols by U.S. warships and overflights by U.S. aircraft as well as increased defense aid to Southeast Asian countries.

Willett said that while it was still unclear how the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague would rule, "it isn't in (China's) interest to take additional provocative actions" after it does.

Willett reiterated the U.S. view that the ruling must be binding. She declined to detail how the United States might respond should Beijing stick to its vow to ignore the ruling, but said: "I do think it’s an important inflexion point, not just for the United States, but for the whole region."

Willett said Washington hoped China would see the ruling as "an opportunity to restart serious discussions with their neighbors."

China has accused the United States of "hyping" the issue and warned in May that international complaints about its actions in the South China Sea would snap back on its critics. But it has largely avoided specific threats of how it might respond to the arbitration ruling.

On Monday, U.S. Navy chief Admiral John Richardson said China's large-scale land reclamation in the South China Sea and militarization of artificial islands had extended its potential ability to deny access to some of the world's busiest shipping lanes.

The U.S. aircraft carriers John C. Stennis and Ronald Reagan staged joint operations last weekend in seas east of the Philippines in a show of strength ahead of The Hague ruling, prompting strong Chinese criticism.

China has listed more than 40 countries it says supports its position on the arbitration case. Willett said it was not even clear what those countries "have allegedly agreed to."

"There's some skepticism about that grouping," she said.

Only eight countries have publicly supported China's position, including land-locked states such as Niger and Afghanistan, according to Washington's Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Willett played down an apparent display of disunity by Southeast Asian countries last week. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), following a foreign ministers meeting in China, issued and then abruptly withdrew a statement that expressed deep concerns over tensions in the South China Sea, a retraction widely seen as the result of Chinese pressure.

A senior U.S. official said ASEAN countries were "under an intense amount of pressure" and made clear that behind the scenes, Washington was working to stiffen their resolve.

(This version of the story has been refiled to fix wording in third paragraph)


(Editing by Stuart Grudgings.)
 

Housecarl

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-judiciary-idUSKCN0Z921I

World | Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:20pm EDT
Related: World, Turkey

In Turkey's judicial overhaul, Erdogan's critics see payback time

ISTANBUL | By Humeyra Pamuk


Two days after calling for Turkey's justice minister to resign on Facebook, prosecutor Menderes Arican received a letter reassigning him from a western province to a relative backwater in the east with immediate effect.

The 49-year old, a prosecutor for two decades, has little doubt that his sudden self-described "exile", seven months into a new posting, was punishment for his criticism of the government.

His reassignment, part of a nationwide shake-up of thousands of judges and prosecutors, comes as the ruling AK Party pushes wider reforms within the higher judiciary.

Critics see it as a bid by President Tayyip Erdogan to remove troublesome judges and tighten his grip on the courts, at a time when he is seeking constitutional change to bolster his powers and introduce an executive presidential system. The AK Party says it will clear bottlenecks in the legal system.

"We're going through a period where the executive seeks total control of the judiciary," Arican told Reuters by phone from the western province of Canakkale, where his family still lives even though he has been working in the east since February. "This is against the separation of powers."

An official at the Justice Ministry said Arican's claims on his appointment were "not true, do not reflect the truth" but did not elaborate further.

Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek told Reuters last week that the aim of the reforms was to end a crippling bottleneck in the court system, something he said was demanded by the business community.

The European Union has repeatedly raised concern about the erosion of judicial independence in Turkey, with officials warning it is taking the country away from European standards and further undermining an already strained EU membership bid.

Under a draft law being debated in parliament, most of the 711 judges at two of the highest courts - the Council of State, which hears cases lodged by citizens against the government, and the Supreme Court of Appeals - will be removed. It is not clear how many of them will be reappointed in the new structure, which will have fewer courts and judges.

Erdogan will then be able to appoint a quarter of the judges at the Council of State, allowing him to stack one of the country's most important legal bodies with his allies.

The head of the bar association, Metin Feyzioglu, has described the changes as dangerous, while a senior EU source said they "look like payback for judgments challenging Erdogan".

The reforms come on top of an unprecedentedly big reshuffle this month by the High Council of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK), which oversees judicial appointments and falls under the control of the Justice Ministry.

The HSYK reassigned more than 3,700 judges and prosecutors in its latest biannual reshuffle, a quarter of those in office, sparking accusations of a witch hunt. It said in a statement on June 10 that the calendar was announced as usual but there were more reassignments to plug shortages in some regions.

"The HSYK now sees everyone who doesn't think in line with its own values as 'the other' and is basically is telling them all to face the consequences of being on the wrong side," said Murat Aydin, 45, a judge who was transferred from the Aegean province of Izmir to the Black Sea province of Trabzon.

His reappointment came a few months after he appealed to the constitutional court challenging Turkey's law on insulting the president - an article prosecutors have invoked more than 1,800 times since Erdogan took office in 2014, suing journalists, academics, a former Miss Turkey and students.


NEW FORM OF TUTELAGE?

Many court cases in Turkey are already heavily politicised.

A five-year jail term handed in May to Can Dundar, editor of the opposition Cumhuriyet newspaper, for revealing state secrets came after Erdogan said he would not forgive the newspaper's reporting of an alleged Turkish weapons shipment to Syrian rebels. Rights groups condemned the sentence.

Four Turkish academics were held for several weeks earlier this year on charges of spreading terrorist propaganda for reading a declaration calling for an end to military operations in the mainly Kurdish southeast. They are still facing trial and Erdogan has said they must pay a price for such "treachery".

He has also said he wants to see members of the pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), parliament's third-largest party, prosecuted for alleged links to militant groups and has stripped lawmakers of their immunity as a first step.

The courts have become more loyal to Erdogan's agenda, his opponents say, since large-scale purges in the judiciary following a corruption scandal in 2013.

Erdogan, then prime minister, cast the scandal as a plot orchestrated by U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen, a former ally-turned-foe whose network of religious followers held key positions in the court system.

AKP lawmaker Resat Petek, a member of parliament's justice commission, said the reforms currently under discussion were aimed at flushing out any remaining influence of Gulen, whom Erdogan accuses of trying to form a "parallel structure".

"There will be a liquidation of this parallel organisation from the higher ranks of the judiciary," Petek told Reuters, estimating that around 160 members of the court of appeals were chosen while the HSYK was still under Gulenist influence.

Opponents fear one system of tutelage will simply be replaced with another.

"We don't want a Gulenist structure within the judiciary but neither do we want an Erdoganist structure," said Feyzioglu, the bar association head.

AKP officials say the reforms will speed up a judicial system swamped by as many as two million cases, some waiting years to be heard. But Ali Suat Ertosun, who has worked at the Court of Appeals for 16 years, sees a different agenda.

"They will get rid of the members they don't like and will fully control the judiciary," he said. "It is unconstitutional, and an intervention against judicial independence."


(Additional reporting by Gulsen Solaker in Ankara; Writing by Humeyra Pamuk; Editing by Nick Tattersall and Anna Willard)
 

Housecarl

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http://freebeacon.com/national-security/moscow-building-spy-site-nicaragua/

Moscow Building Spy Site in Nicaragua

Signals intelligence facility part of deal for 50 Russian tanks

BY: Bill Gertz
June 23, 2016 5:00 am


The Russian government is building an electronic intelligence-gathering facility in Nicaragua as part of Moscow’s efforts to increase military and intelligence activities in the Western Hemisphere.

The signals intelligence site is part of a recent deal between Moscow and Managua involving the sale of 50 T-72 Russian tanks, said defense officials familiar with reports of the arrangement.

The tank deal and spy base have raised concerns among some officials in the Pentagon and nations in the region about a military buildup under leftist Nicaraguan leader Daniel Ortega.

Disclosure of the Russia-Nicaraguan spy base comes as three U.S. officials were expelled from Nicaragua last week. The three Department of Homeland Security officials were picked up by Nicaraguan authorities, driven to the airport, and sent to the United States without any belongings.

State Department spokesman John Kirby said the expulsion took place June 14 and was “unwarranted and inconsistent with the positive and constructive agenda that we seek with the government of Nicaragua.”

“Such treatment has the potential to negatively impact U.S. and Nicaraguan bilateral relations, particularly trade,” he said.

The action is an indication that President Obama’s recent diplomatic overture to Cuba has not led to better U.S. ties to leftist governments in the region.

State Department officials had no immediate comment on the expulsion.

The action is an indication that President Obama’s recent diplomatic overture to Cuba has not led to better U.S. ties to leftist governments in the region.

Nicaragua’s Ortega has remained close to the communist Castro regime in Cuba and the leftist regime in Venezuela. He was once part of the communist Sandinista dictatorship, and after winning election as president in 2006 has shifted Nicaragua towards socialism.

No details of the intelligence site, such as its location and when it will be completed, could be learned.

However, the site could be disguised as a Russian GLONASS satellite navigation tracking station that is said to be nearing completion. GLONASS is the Russian version of the Global Positioning System network of satellites used for precision navigation and guidance.

The Nicaraguan and Russian governments in August signed an agreement to build the GLONASS station near Laguna de Najapa, north of the capital of Managua, according to Nicaraguan press reports. Other news reports said the site will be located on the Caribbean coast.

Pentagon spokesmen had no immediate comment on the Russian-Nicaraguan military and intelligence cooperation.

A State Department official said, “While any nation has the right to choose its international partners, we have been clear that now is not the time for business as usual with Russia.”

Southern Command spokesman Lt. Col. David Olson said the United States respects the right of nations to modernize their defenses.

“We’re aware of Russian engagements in our hemisphere,” he said. “The nature of Russia’s engagements in our hemisphere isn’t new and similar to engagements with other nations. We are confident that our partner nations understand our desire to be their security partner of choice, as well as our commitment to work side by side with them in support of our shared interests and democratic values.”

A Nicaraguan Embassy spokesman also had no immediate comment.

The tank deal involves the transfer of 50 T-72 tanks, 20 of which are reported to be en route to Nicaragua as part of a first delivery.

Protesters in Managua demonstrated in late April against the Russian tank deal. The European Press Agency reported April 28 that the protest was organized by the opposition National Coalition for Democracy and the Independent Liberal Party. One protester held a sign that read. “We do not want Russian tanks, we want bread, medicine, and peace.”

Costa Rica’s Foreign Minister Manuel Gonzalez also has criticized the tank sale, telling the La Prenza newspaper: “It is a matter of concern not because of a threat to Costa Rica … but because one country in the Central American region starts an arms race.”

Gonzalez said the region needs more healthcare, technology, and infrastructure and not military hardware.

The Nicaraguan parliament on May 3 passed a measure authorizing foreign military personnel to work in the country. The measure was aimed at permitting Russian military personnel to train Nicaraguans on the use of the tanks. It could also permit Russian intelligence personnel to enter the country.

U.S. intelligence agencies reported internally several months ago that repression by the ruling Sandinista government has prompted the reformation of several armed groups in Northern Nicaragua who are opposing the Ortega government. The groups have engaged in small-scale firefights with government troops.

The armed opposition harkens back to the U.S.-supported Contra rebels that were armed during the Reagan administration to oppose the Sandinistas.

The anti-government groups are being revived after what human rights groups have said were several recent murders of former Contra fighters by suspected government agents.

Former Pentagon policymaker Mark Schneider said the deal appears to be part of a Russian strategy to expand weapons sales to create opportunities for military bases and to enhance influence in the region.

“In general, Moscow openly covets new foreign bases in Latin America, the South China Sea, the Indian Ocean, the Balkans, and the Middle East,” Schneider said. “Russia is comfortable with Marxist states. Russia will sell arms to just about anyone and will seek to achieve influence and military advantage. There is obviously no relationship between the sale of T-80 tanks reported by Jane’s and drug smuggling.”

Jane’s Defence Weekly reported in May that a Nicaraguan congressman, Edwin Castro, said the government plans to use the tanks to combat drug trafficking.

Russia in October 2013 flew two Tu-160 nuclear capable bombers to Nicaragua and conducted a naval task force visit to Venezuela. Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Nicaragua in 2014 and set the stage for the increased military and intelligence cooperation.

“The Nicaraguan socialists seem to have pushed the country to the point of economic collapse,” Schneider said. “This has to impact what happens with Russia.”

Roger Noriega, a former State Department Latin Affairs policymaker, said Managua’s spending on tanks seems like a terrible use of resources for a very poor country.

“Apparently this is part of Ortega’s ‘cash-for-clunkers’ program to seal political ties with Russia while engaging in purchases that allow both sides to bury pay-offs on both sides of the deal and have some hardware,” Noriega said.

If Nicaragua had an independent legislature, its members would be asking questions about the deal, he added.

“Obviously, this is none of our business,” Noriega said. “But it is interesting that other countries in the region need vertical lift and [travel expenses] to carry the fight to narco traffickers, but Ortega has made other arrangements to deal with that phenomenon.”

“Too bad the Obama isn’t the least bit interested in anything that is happening in Nicaragua—which is fortunate if you’re in the drugs or dictatorship business,” he noted.

Russia under the Soviet Union operated the largest intelligence facility of its kind in Lourdes, Cuba, until the base was closed in 2002. Reports surfaced two years ago that the facility would be reopened, but Moscow issued a denial that this was the case.

Lourdes once housed more than 1,500 KGB, GRU military, and Cuban intelligence personnel. The facility was said to be capable of intercepting all electronic communications throughout the southeastern United States.

Retired Navy Cdr. Daniel Dolan, writing in the blog USNI News, stated that the cost of the tanks, an estimated $80 million, is $9 million more than the entire Nicaraguan defense budget for 2015.

“The acquisition of tanks is particularly perplexing to many in the region since Nicaragua has relatively good relations with its neighbors, has a growing tourist industry, and can boast in recent years as being the safest country for foreign tourists in all of Central America,” Dolan stated. “Additionally, the ruling Sandinista party (FSLN) does not face a serious a challenge in the pending November elections.”


This entry was posted in National Security and tagged Russia. Bookmark the permalink.

Nicaragua celebrates anniversary of Sandinista revolution
AFP


Bill Gertz is the senior editor of the Washington Free Beacon.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.breitbart.com/national-s...-biden-claims-japan-can-go-nuclear-overnight/

Joe Biden to China: Curb North Korea or Japan Can Go Nuclear ‘Virtually Overnight’

by Frances Martel
24 Jun 2016
Comments 35

Vice President Joe Biden warned China that the Japanese government may acquire nuclear weapons “virtually overnight” if the threat from North Korea becomes too grave, urging Beijing to do more to curb Pyongyang’s belligerence.

The Vice President’s comments echo those of presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who warned that Japan and South Korea acquiring nuclear weapons “is going to happen anyway” in controversial remarks issued in March. Japanese government officials and media responded to Trump’s comments much more severely than they have to Biden’s.

“What happens if Japan, who could tomorrow, could go nuclear tomorrow? They have the capacity to do it virtually overnight,” Biden told PBS host Charlie Rose in an interview broadcast Monday. He explained that he made this warning to Chinese President Xi Jinping personally while discussing the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea to protect from a North Korean attack, a move that China has condemned vocally.

“When I tell President Xi, you have to understand we got a guy up there in North Korea who is talking about building weapons that can strike, nuclear weapons strike the United States and not only Hawaii and Alaska, but… the mainland of the United States,” he told Rose. “And I say, so we’re going to move up our defense system, and he says no, no, no, wait a minute, my military thinks you’re going to try to circle us.”

Biden suggested that China, a fellow communist country, “has the single greatest ability to influence North Korea.”

Japan has issued a tepid response to the remarks, with Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroshige Seko telling reporters Friday that Japan simply “can never possess nuclear weapons.” Japan remains the only nation in the world to experience a nuclear weapon attack.

In March, Trump stated that both Japan and South Korea were likely to develop nuclear capabilities due to their access to advanced technology. “It’s going to happen, anyway. It’s only a question of time. They’re going to start having them, or we have to get rid of them entirely,” he said, suggesting that, should the move be inevitable, the United States should do more to curb its defense expenses in Asia protecting wealthy nations.

In response, Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida stated that Japan having nuclear capabilities was “impossible,” and national newspaper Asahi Shimbun described national leaders as responding with “bewilderment and unease.

The government of North Korea has behaved with extreme belligerence in 2016, beginning the year with the detonation of what they claimed was a hydrogen bomb and repeatedly launching missiles towards Japan (all have failed to reach their targets). Most recently, North Korea tested what are believed to be two Musudan ballistic missiles, with one reaching the greatest height the nation has yet to achieve on a test.

China responded to the new test by calling for North Korea to “act with caution and refrain from taking actions that may elevate tension on the Korean peninsula.” China recently backed expanded UN sanctions on North Korea, but has condemned U.S. and South Korean defense buildups in response to Pyongyang, claiming that the also put Beijing in the line of fire.

While China has kept its criticism of North Korea tepid and remained its largest trade partner, the volume of that trade has declined significantly. Imports from North Korea dropped 12.6 percent between May 2015 and May 2016, while exports to North Korea fell 5.9 percent in the same time period.
*
 

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http://www.janes.com/article/61727/image-shows-new-variant-of-china-s-type-093-attack-submarine

Sea Platforms

Image shows new variant of China's Type 093 attack submarine

Richard D Fisher Jr, Washington DC - IHS Jane's Defence Weekly

23 June 2016

1682036_-_main.jpg

http://www.janes.com/images/assets/727/61727/1682036_-_main.jpg

A new image emerged on 21 June providing confirmation of the latest variant of the People's Liberation Army Navy's (PLAN's) Type 093 nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN).

Published on Chinese online forums, the picture shows that the new Shang-class submarine appears to have a new 'bump' shape after the sail that may be intended to help dissipate root vortices that emerge from the base of the sail, which can help reduce drag and noise.

An article published that same day on Guancha.com claims the boat also employs a vertical launch version of the YJ-18 anti-ship cruise missile and a naval version of the DF-10 long-range land-attack cruise missile. The new photograph, however, does not provide confirmation that the 'bump' also houses vertical-launch cruise missiles.

It is unclear, however, where exactly this boat lies in the PLAN's Shang-class programme. A 2016 Pentagon report to the US Congress on China-related military and security developments stated a few months ago that the East Asia country was continuing to improve its SSN force and that four additional Shang-class SSN would eventually join the two already in service.

"The Shang SSN will replace the ageing Han-class SSN (Type 091). These improved Shang SSNs feature a vertical launch system and may be able to fire the YJ-18 advanced anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM)," the paper stated.

It has been reported for some time that the third and subsequent three boats are stretched versions of the two original Shang-class boats: possibly in an attempt to accommodate a Dry Dock Shelter as appears to be the case in the recently released image. While authenticity cannot be guaranteed, this may be the third boat. These are known as Type 093A.

However, there has also been firm reporting that the Chinese have been developing a nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine (SSGN), known in many circles as Type 093G.

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http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/23/politics/iraq-toops-obama-mosul/

Hundreds of new U.S. troops to Iraq a 'possibility'

By Barbara Starr, CNN Pentagon Correspondent
Updated 5:52 PM ET, Thu June 23, 2016


(CNN) — The Obama administration is "not ruling out the possibility" of sending hundreds of additional troops to Iraq this fall to help train, advise and assist Iraqi forces as they get ready for a potential assault on Mosul, according to a senior U.S. official.

And while officials won't publicly confirm it, there have been several meetings to begin to determine if more troops are needed for the upcoming battle for Iraq's second-largest city and what those troops might do to affect the battle.

The top U.S. commander in Iraq, Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland, by all accounts has not yet asked for more troops, several U.S. officials told CNN.

"He engaged with dialogue up through his chain of command where he thinks there might be an area where we might require an increase in capability, and I use that word 'capability' because it can be a rash of forms," said British Army Maj. Gen. Doug Chalmers, deputy commander for strategy in the U.S.-led coalition, in a news briefing for Pentagon reporters.

Chalmers noted additional troops, if sent, could deal with air support, reconnaissance and surveillance as well as training, advising and assisting Iraqi forces. The issue of troop levels is one that is constantly being reviewed by the military, but these latest discussions center on what, if anything, is needed to support an Iraqi assault on Mosul.

Several defense officials have told CNN they cannot predict at this point when an Iraqi assault could begin, but it's generally thought to still be some months off. There are ongoing Mosul planning meetings with top Iraqi officials, and when a plan is set, further, more specific discussions about additional forces could begin.

Iraqi forces currently are fighting their way north toward Mosul and beginning to try to retake villages and towns in order to isolate the city before any plan is implemented for a direct assault. Mosul remains ISIS' major stronghold in Iraq.

MacFarland currently has legal authority to request more troops without having to get fresh White House approval. The current limit on the number of troops in Iraq is 4,087, but there are only about 3,600 on any given day. So he could request about another 400 without having to get President Barack Obama's permission and perhaps not even make a public announcement of more troops unless he wanted to request more than the current limit.

Troop levels in Iraq remain highly imprecise, however, because there are dozens of additional forces there under temporary orders that do not count against the 4,087 limit.

One official said the current 400-troop "cushion" that could be sent is essentially being kept as a hedge in case more troops are in fact needed for a Mosul assault.

Defense Secretary Ash Carter has spoken about being willing to approve more "accelerants," such as troops for the fight against ISIS, so any request from MacFarland would be likely to be approved if it can be demonstrated the troops are needed, officials said.

But one official noted that MacFarland has to "maximize what he's got before asking for more." The U.S., for example, would like to see the Iraqis take more advantage of U.S. Apache helicopter gunships in attacking ISIS ground targets.

The other challenge in answering the question of whether more troops are needed is that as Iraqi forces continue to move north towards Mosul, ISIS itself is reconfiguring. Some ISIS troops appear to be retreating into villages and towns along that route. And intelligence indicators show ISIS is reinforcing positions in Mosul with more fighters.

But that also consolidates ISIS into a less-dispersed geographic area. That is a consideration in determining if more U.S. military advisers are needed if the fighting remains in consolidated areas.
 

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http://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/europe/exporting-jihad-bosnia-and-kosovo-1089

Exporting Jihad: Bosnia and Kosovo

June 24, 2016 | Kaitlin Lavinder

Bosnia and Kosovo are two of the biggest exporters of jihadists joining the Islamic State (ISIS) and al-Nusra Front (al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria) from the Balkans. As The Cipher Brief reported last month, legacies of the Communist era and the wars of the 1990s – presence of foreign fighters, economic and physical destruction, a lack of funding to rebuild, and the near eradication of moderate Islamic institutions – paved the way for Islamic extremist groups to establish a foothold in both countries. Now, ISIS recruiters are targeting Bosnia and Kosovo, and many Bosnians and Kosovars have left to fight in Syria and Iraq.

Bosnia

When war broke out in Bosnia in the early 1990s, the ultra-conservative Sunni Islam movement known as Salafism was brought to Bosnia “by Saudi-sponsored mujahedeen fighters mobilized to fight alongside the drastically under-armed and under-funded Muslim Bosniaks against both Serbs and Croats,” explains Cipher Brief expert Tanja Dramac Jiries. Some of these foreign fighters received citizenship and stayed in Bosnia after the war, says Adrian Shtuni, an expert on violent extremism in the Balkans.

Jiries notes that today, “Extremist communities [offer] an attractive refuge to young men and women deprived of any opportunity for economic prosperity.”

The number of those lacking economic wealth – and potentially turning toward extremist groups for both sociological and monetary reasons – continues to grow in Bosnia. A report released this month by Bosnia-based think tank Social Overview Service finds the Bosnian economic model unsustainable due to “budget deficits that are growing on almost all administrative levels” and a “serious liquidity crisis.” This, according to the report, is delaying salaries, pensions, and social benefits and causing deep unrest within society.

In addition, Bosnia is gearing up for local elections in October, which means polarizing pre-election campaigns have already begun. Jiries explains, “Local and general elections have become the ideal stage for nationalist leaders to not only remind citizens of the dangers that permeate their country, but also to lay out their plans for protecting their respective ethnic community – be it Croat, Serb, or Bosniak.”

Economic instability and radical rhetoric can foment extremist ideology. Indeed Balkan Investigative Reporting Network investigators recently found that since 2012, at least 200 Bosnian men are believed to have fought with jihadi groups in Syria and Iraq. Bosnia’s State Investigation and Protection Agency puts that number at 280 and reports about 120 of those are still fighting with ISIS or al-Nusra Front.

The U.S. State Department, in its recently released 2015 report on terrorism, notes the large number of Bosnians traveling to Syria and Iraq to join terrorist groups. But what may be even more worrying is that 50 Bosnians are believed to have returned home. And Bosnia’s complex security system of 15 different police agencies, the Prosecutor’s Office, and the Court means coordination and intelligence sharing is difficult, if not non-existent.

One positive: The State Department report praises Bosnia’s 2015 Strategy for Preventing and Combating Terrorism, the first of its kind for a Balkan nation. Plus, in April this year, CIA director John Brennan stopped in Sarajevo to discuss this issue of weak intelligence sharing and the problems it poses to fighting terrorism.

Kosovo

Kosovo’s story of extremist Islamic infiltration is similar to Bosnia’s. During the 1998 – 1999 Kosovo war, foreign fighters flocked to the country to participate, although in lesser numbers than in Bosnia. As the conflict came to an end, a handful of Saudi-funded faith-based charities set up shop in Kosovo, a predominantly Muslim nation, says Shtuni. “Besides providing much needed humanitarian aid, building schools, hospitals, orphanages, and community centers, they also erected Wahhabi mosques,” he explains.

Besiana Xharra, a journalist based in Kosovo and a fellow at the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, reports more than a hundred unlicensed mosques sprang up all over Kosovo in a matter of a decade.

Moreover, Shtuni says the Saudi Joint Relief Committee for Kosovo and Chechnya (SJRC) – whose activities have been linked to al-Qaeda – “reportedly built ninety-eight primary and secondary schools in rural Kosovo in the first few years after the war.”

However, Cipher Brief expert Haki Abazi, program director for the Western Balkans at Rockefeller Brothers Fund, notes that institutions such as mosques or schools don’t necessarily mean followers. Saudi efforts to introduce radical Islam into Kosovo, he says, have proved largely unfruitful. “New mosques built by wealthy individuals from Saudi Arabia stand empty. Saudi Arabia’s indoctrination efforts are producing nothing but disappointment for their investors,” he told The Cipher Brief.

Still, according to Cipher Brief expert Anita Rice, the Kosovo government believes at least 300 Kosovars have fought with jihadi groups in Syria and Iraq since 2012, with around 70 still fighting there and 130 who have returned home. And Shtuni claims that among the Balkans and greater European countries, Kosovo has the highest rate of recruitment for violent jihad relative to its population size.

The country’s economic woes and weak governance do not help. Kosovo has the highest rate of unemployment in the region, and it has been “struggling to establish proper accountable democratic institutions,” says Abazi.

Kosovo’s institutions for combatting terrorism – including investigative and prosecutorial apparatuses – remain weak as well. The State Department 2015 terrorism report notes Kosovo has limited capacity, resources, and experience to handle terrorism cases effectively, although Kosovo’s efforts to track and prosecute terror suspects are a positive sign, the report states.

As Bosnia and Kosovo attempt to work through a bloody recent history, the introduction of extremist Islam (especially Saudi-backed), institutional weakness, and economic distress, ISIS and other militant groups have established recruiting efforts within both countries. But the governments and their citizens are fighting back. Abazi points out, “In the last six months, not a single case of recruitment by ISIS or other extremist groups has been recorded in Kosovo.”

That does not mean the international community should believe the issue will fade away without help. Indeed, as Albania’s Former Defense Minister Fatmir Mediu told The Cipher Brief last month, the Balkans will need greater support from the U.S. and the EU in building institutional capacity and regional cooperation.

Kaitlin Lavinder is an International Producer with The Cipher Brief.

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Housecarl

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Military

The Generals Take on Obama

Max Boot / June 23, 2016


Arguably, Barack Obama’s biggest failing is his inability to act more like a wartime commander-in-chief. He seldom if ever tries to rally public opinion toward the goal of defeating adversaries such as the Taliban and ISIS, and he generally commits the minimal number of forces to these battles under the most restrictive rules of engagement and timelines possible. This causes considerable heartburn among the troops he sends into harm’s way and their commanders.

This week, that angst has come out into the open in Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan. In all three theaters, military officers are protesting the administration’s actions, or lack thereof, in a way that would be big news if it had happened under a Republican like George W. Bush. These stories deserve more coverage than they are getting—a lot more:

Marine General Thomas Waldhauser, nominated to get a fourth star and take command of Africa Command, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee that the military has identified ISIS targets to strike in Libya but has not received White House approval to hit them. “That makes no sense, does it?” Senator Lindsey Graham asked. Waldhauser replied, “No it does not.”

At another point in his testimony, Waldhauser said, “I am not aware of any overall grand strategy at this point” in Libya. That statement is as accurate as it is damning, and helps to explain why the military hasn’t received authority for air strikes: It doesn’t make much sense to drop bombs if there is no idea of what strategy the military forces are supposed to be pursuing.

The Wall Street Journal‘s ace military correspondent, Michael Phillips, reported that U.S. troops in Afghanistan are flummoxed by complicated rules of engagement, which make it nearly impossible for them to figure out when they can bomb the Taliban and when they can’t: “Troops up and down the chain of command… say that in practice the rules are mushy, open to interpretation about what constitutes justifiable violence, particularly when only Afghan soldiers are directly in harm’s way. U.S. commanders and military lawyers make seat-of-the-pants calls every day about using force against the Taliban, trying simultaneously to respect the rules, avoid killing civilians and spare their allies casualties that a quick airstrike might prevent.”

Phillips also quoted a U.S. Special Forces officer saying, “We are not at war with the Taliban,” which raises the issue of what nearly 10,000 U.S. troops are doing in Afghanistan if they are not at war with the insurgents who are threatening the government and are closely aligned with al-Qaeda. This is symptomatic of the terminal confusion that emanates from the White House and affects operations down to the lowest level.

In the Washington Post, Josh Rogin reported that U.S. military commanders in Iraq have been eager to get more reinforcements but have been discouraged from asking for them by the White House: “[T]he generals on the ground, including Army Lt. Gen. Sean MacFarland, commander of coalition forces in Iraq, have been frustrated by what they see as arbitrary caps on troop levels set by the White House and a process that discourages them from directly asking for what they need. That may affect the numbers in the requests that are sent to Washington.”

President Obama is certainly not obliged to take the best advice of his military commanders, and the generals are not always right. But in each of these cases—in Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan—the generals have legitimate complaints about White House’s decision-making process, which they claim is making it impossible to achieve U.S. goals in any of these theaters. Instead of trying to win, the president is intent on reducing American involvement in each of these conflicts to the lowest level possible.

Obama’s reluctance to get more deeply engaged is understandable, but the inadvertent result is to provide operating room for extremist groups and to put U.S. troops in an untenable situation where they are expected to risk life and limb but are not allowed to do their best to defeat the enemies they are fighting.
 

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Opinions

Get ready for another Iraq War

By Seth Moulton June 23 at 7:39 PM
Comments 323

Seth Moulton, a Democrat, represents Massachusetts¡¦s 6th congressional district in the House.


Losing a friend in war is always hard. Losing a friend to a battle we already fought and won is worse.

That¡¦s how my close friend Lt. Col. Ehab Hashem Moshen was killed recently by the Islamic State near Fallujah ¡X refighting a battle in Iraq that the Marine Corps fought a decade ago. The Marines won that fight. The problem is that the Obama administration didn¡¦t follow through on a political plan to maintain the peace.

In April, I visited some of the almost 5,000 troops that President Obama has put back in Iraq, and I witnessed a recurring theme: We have a military plan to defeat the Islamic State ¡X and, as initial gains in Fallujah this week demonstrate, it¡¦s going well in many respects ¡X but we have yet to articulate a political plan to ensure Iraq¡¦s long-term stability.

Sometimes it¡¦s impossible to tell whether it¡¦s 2007 or 2016. The battle plans I hear from our commanders in Iraq today are the same ones I heard at the beginning of the surge, down to the same cities and tribal alliances. My question is: How will this time be different? The silence is deafening.

Carl von Clausewitz taught us nearly 200 years ago that ¡§War is a mere continuation of politics by other means.¡¨ We have to have a political endgame, or the sacrifices our troops continue to make will be in vain. It¡¦s not the military¡¦s job to develop that political plan ¡X that¡¦s where the administration comes in ¡X but it¡¦s painfully clear there isn¡¦t one.

Without a long-term political strategy, we can expect to send young Americans back to Iraq every time Iraqi politics fall apart, a new terrorist group sweeps in and we find ourselves required to clean up the mess.

Let¡¦s not forget that, fundamentally, the crisis in Iraq today is political. When the Islamic State overran much of the country, it didn¡¦t just defeat the Iraqi army; the soldiers of the Iraqi army put their weapons down and went home because they had lost faith in then-Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki¡¦s sectarian government. Only if we can help bring lasting change to Iraqi politics will Iraq be able to defend itself without our help.

Unfortunately, the president¡¦s response to the Islamic State in Iraq has missed the mark: You don¡¦t fix Iraqi politics by training Iraqi troops. We need a comprehensive military and political plan. The good news is that we now have an Iraqi prime minister who is aligned with our interests and has the support of the Iraqi people to reform their government. He faces plenty of entrenched political opposition, however, and that¡¦s where the United States can help.

First, we can provide resources directly to Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to support his agenda of reform. Second, we can help the disenfranchised Sunnis have a stronger voice in their government by encouraging them to unite politically, just as we did during the surge. Third, we must counter the malign interests of Iranian agents working to inflame sectarianism among Shiite leaders and in the Iraqi media. And fourth, we can broker a reasonable agreement between the Abadi government and our closest allies, the Kurds. All this will take a stronger diplomatic presence. We built the largest U.S. Embassy in the world in Iraq, knowing that Iraqis would need continued political mentorship, but then we left it half-empty. It¡¦s time we fixed that.

As a four-tour Marine veteran of Iraq myself, I share the president¡¦s deeply held wish that our continued involvement were not necessary. It would be great if we could simply hand the ball to the Iraqis and wish them well. But hope is not a strategy, and the past five years have proved that that approach doesn¡¦t work.

Some will say that meddling in foreign politics often makes things worse, and I¡¦ll be the first to say that it¡¦s hard to do well. But we made tremendous political progress in Iraq during the surge. Under the strong leadership of then-Ambassador Ryan Crocker, we kept a lid on sectarianism, curtailed Iranian influence and led reconciliation among many disgruntled tribesmen. Yes, the leverage of 100,000 U.S. troops helped, but Crocker¡¦s close coordination with his military counterpart, Gen. David Petraeus, was what mattered most; there are far more elements of U.S. power and influence we can bring to the table than boots on the ground.

More important, the alternative to robust political mentoring in Iraq is sending young Americans back again and again. Fixing Iraqi politics is difficult, but I¡¦d much prefer having a heavy, long-term diplomatic presence than losing more lives refighting battles we already won.

My friend Ehab was a brave Iraqi soldier, one of the best officers in his generation. He died an Iraqi hero, and given how many times he put his life on the line for my team and me, I believe he¡¦s an American hero as well. He¡¦s a great example of our many Muslim allies who fight Islamic terrorists every day. We need more brave men like Ehab to win this long war. We must work harder to ensure his death won¡¦t have been in vain.


Read more:

Jennifer Rubin: Iraq and Libya are harder the second time

David Ignatius: How to put the Middle East back together

Charles Krauthammer: A new strategy for Iraq and Syria

Max Boot and Michael Pregent: Appeasing Iran hurts us in Iraq, too

The Post¡¦s View: The U.S. must do more to help Iraq fight the Islamic State







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