WAR 04-30-2016-to-05-06-2016_____****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

Housecarl

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http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/exclusive-the-front-lines-facing-isis-15995

The Skeptics

Exclusive: On the Front Lines Facing ISIS

Daniel L. Davis
May 1, 2016

I have written many times in this space on the evolving situation in Iraq regarding the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS). In large part my analysis pieces have been based on the experience gained through my two-plus decades of military service, including four combat deployments (two of which were in Iraq). But for this contemporary situation I have been reliant on reports by journalists on the ground. In the early March, I traveled to Iraq to find out first-hand what the conditions were like in and around the site of the next big fight: the battle for Mosul.

While there I visited four refugee camps, interviewed considerable numbers of displaced persons, met with the commanding general of the Peshmerga in command of troops opposite Mosul, talked with some of his troops, and met with aid workers and journalists from the region. It was an eye-opening visit to say the least.

In some ways I discovered the situation was worse than I’d imagined, the looming fight more complex and multi-layered than I’d imagined, and the brutality of ISIS was even more cruel than i’d heard. But I also discovered pockets of hope and reason for at least some optimism.

In the refugee camps I met with Yazidis, Muslims, and Christians; men, women, teenagers and young children. Two main things stood out during these interviews. First was that even some devout Sunni Muslims I met were angry at ISIS and were adamant in saying the radicals were not genuine followers of Islam but had perverted it for their own ideological agenda; two Sunni Muslims I visited had renounced their faith.

The second thing that stood out from my conversations with displaced persons is that especially among the Christians that had been driven out of Mosul and its environs, there was no hatred or a desire for revenge. “That’s not what our faith teaches,” one man told me. “We must pray for them. Jesus forgave even those people who killed him on the cross.” When I asked him why he wasn’t angry at ISIS, he quickly corrected me. “They should be held accountable for their actions—they drove us from our homes—and we want to get our lives back.” But he said it was up to God, not them, to seek revenge. I have nothing but the highest regard for their strength of character.

There was one other reason for optimism I observed. As is well known, the Iraqi Army dissolved before ISIS in the summer of 2014 and their ability to defeat the Islamic radicals and retake lost territory—especially Mosul—is uncertain. The Peshmerga, however, appear to be cut from a different cloth. I met with the commanding general of the Peshmerga forces opposite Mosul, General Bahram Yassin. I came away very impressed with his understanding of the military, political, and cultural issues complicating the fight against ISIS, as well as his grasp of the tactical tasks necessary to defeat ISIS in Mosul.

Video

I was pleasantly surprised at the general’s willingness to discuss—frankly and on the record—the difficulties and challenges facing his mission (I will write more on this conversation in the coming days). After our interview, he took me to meet some of his troops manning the forward fighting positions opposite the ISIS forward defensive positions. There I met a Kurdish fighting man who was adamant in his contention that ISIS fighters were not as fearsome as the media makes them out to be—and how eager he was to fight them. I even met an American volunteer from Idaho at that forward position. He was a former US Army soldier and had traveled at his own expense to provide his services as a combat medic.

Video

How this battle and war plays out is far from certain at this point. But one thing was deeply engrained on me during this visit. The human cost of this war has already been profound, the destruction breathtaking, and the scale of psychological and emotional wounds suffered by the survivors difficult to imagine. Perhaps it wasn’t surprising that virtually everyone I spoke with—man, woman, child, Christian, Muslim, Yazidi—all wanted the same thing: a chance to live without the threat of death hanging over their heads every day. 23-year-old Alen al-Kasmousce, a Christian living in a refugee camp in Erbil, summed it up best.

I asked him what he hoped to accomplish in his future. Get a master’s degree? Become an engineer or businessman? Have a family? He calmly responded, “No, my generation doesn’t even think about those things. What we all dream about is just living life without war.” Once the conflict was over, Alen continued, he could consider a family and career. Without peace, however, he dares not dream and deals with surviving one day to another.

Description of photos:

1. What the locals in Erbil called a “vertical village” refugee camp. Because the regional economy tanked in 2014 owing to the twin maladies of the ISIS attack and the collapsing of the global oil market, the city of Erbil is littered with high-rise buildings frozen in various degrees of completion, mere shells. Refugees have been given permission in some of them, like the one pictured here, to build make-shift rooms on several of the unfinished floors in which to live. Whole families live in each of these single rooms.

2. The laundry area in the “vertical village.”

3. A luxury: a functioning, rapidly built community toilet. There are no private facilities of any sort. No kitchen, restroom, showers, or laundry.

4. Rows of pre-fab buildings and tents comprising a primarily Yazidi camp erected in the countryside not far from Mosul.

5. An elderly Yazidi man.

6. A young Yazidi father wonders what the future will hold for his son.

7. A Yazidi woman and her baby. One of the women I met at this camp was still grieving because three of her daughters—ages 10, 11 and 13—were taken from her home by ISIS to serve as sex slaves. She has not heard from them since she escaped in 2014.

8. This elderly Yazidi seemed traumatized when I met him.

9. ISIS is brutal to everyone. Even these Muslim women were driven from their homes by the Islamic radicals.

10-13. The children at every camp I visited seemed to fall into two categories. Some were deeply suspicious of any stranger and seemed afraid of me. But most were oblivious to the war and their lives as displaced persons. They were like kids everywhere: wanted to play, be silly, and enjoy life. Even in these camps many succeeded. Regrettably, their parents and those old enough to understand were not so lucky.

14. I accompanied Ali Javanmardi and his television crew from the Voice of America to the ISIS front lines opposite Mosul, escorted by a Peshmerga truck with a machinegun mounted in the bed.

15. Peering over the sandbags of the Peshmerga front lines at the ISIS line.

16. Looking through a gun port in a sandbag wall at the literal front line of ISIS. On the top of this hill stands the black flag of the Islamic State, marking their forward-most position.

17. A Peshmerga fighter: “We are not afraid of Da’esh (ISIS). They should be afraid of us!”

Video

18. American Ryan O’Leary from Iowa, volunteering as a fighter and medic for the Peshmerga. “I want to help liberate Mosul from ISIS and make sure it doesn’t spread,” he said.

19. The children (and even some of the men) of the Yazidi camp loved to have their photo taken.

20. Taking photos of Peshmerga fighters on front line.

21. General Yassin gave me a tour of the forward position overlooking the ISIS line.

Daniel L. Davis is a widely published analyst on national security and foreign policy. He retired as a Lt. Col. after twenty-one years in the U.S. Army, including four combat deployments, and is a member of the Center for Defense Information's Military Advisory Board. The views in these articles are those of the author alone and do not reflect the position of the U.S. Government. Follow him on Twitter @DanielLDavis1 [5].


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Links:
[1] http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/exclusive-the-front-lines-facing-isis-15995
[2] http://nationalinterest.org/profile/daniel-l-davis
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[9] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/war
[10] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/mosul
[11] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/islamic-state
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[14] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/yazidis
[15] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/refugees
[16] http://nationalinterest.org/topic/security
[17] http://nationalinterest.org/region/middle-east/persian-gulf/iraq
[18] http://nationalinterest.org/region/kurdistan
 

Housecarl

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/venezuel...lion-opposition-recall-suceeds-091526014.html

Venezuela's Maduro calls for 'rebellion' if opposition recall succeeds

Maria Isabel Sanchez
AFP
May 2, 2016

Caracas (AFP) - A defiant Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro urged supporters to launch a general strike and "rebellion" if the opposition succeeds in ousting him from office in a referendum.

Maduro's fiery May Day speech came as Venezuela's emboldened opposition prepared on Tuesday to present more than 10 times the roughly 200,000 signatures needed to begin organizing a referendum to remove the unpopular president, blamed by many for the country's deep economic crisis.

Maduro vowed to fight for his job, despite a deep crisis in the country that has seen riots and looting in the second city over four-hour daily blackouts introduced to save energy.

"If the oligarchy some day does something against me and manages to take this palace, I order you to declare yourselves in rebellion and decree an indefinite general strike," he told supporters massed outside the presidential palace on Sunday.

Maduro told them the referendum "is an option, not an obligation. Here the only obligation is the presidential election and that will be in 2018."

A recent poll found that more than two-thirds of Venezuelans want Maduro, elected president by a razor-thin margin in 2013, to leave office.

Once-booming Venezuela, which has the world's largest proven oil reserves, has plunged into economic chaos as global crude prices have collapsed. It has been in recession since 2013.

The import-dependent country faces acute shortages of food and basic goods like toilet paper due to a lack of currency, more than 96 percent of which it gets from oil sales.

Maduro has vowed to press on with the socialist "revolution" launched in 1999 by his predecessor, the late Hugo Chavez, which has given Venezuela a government-led economy.

- Recall vote this year? -

If the electoral board accepts the signatures collected by the opposition as valid -- far from a sure bet, since opponents say the board is stacked with Maduro cronies -- the opposition will then have to collect four million more for the board to organize the vote.

Opponents are racing to hold the referendum before the end of the year. According to Venezuela's constitution, after January 2017 a successful recall vote would transfer power to Maduro's vice president rather than trigger new elections.

Jesus Torrealba, spokesman for the MUD opposition coalition that controls Venezuela's legislature, said the signatures -- collected in "record time" -- will be delivered to the electoral board on Tuesday.

However board official Tania D'amelio suggested on Twitter that the board might not start verifying the signatures until late May.

- More sleep, save energy -

Venezuelans lost half an hour of sleep Sunday as their clocks were set forward on the president's orders in a move to save power.

At 2:30am local time Sunday, Venezuela shifted its time ahead by 30 minutes -- to four hours behind Greenwich Mean Time.

The move, announced in mid-April, is part of a package of measures the embattled socialist president is pursuing to cope with a crippling electricity shortage.

Hugo Chavez implemented the unusual half-hour time shift back in December 2007, saying he didn't want children to have to walk to school in the dark. Chavez died in 2013.

In announcing the time change, the Maduro government said 30 extra minutes of daylight at the end of the day would curb the use of lights and air conditioning, especially draining for the power grid.

Maduro's government has also instituted four-hour daily blackouts across most of the country, reduced the public-sector workweek to two days and ordered schools closed on Fridays -- adding to the woes of a nation already stuck in a crushing recession.

The power cuts sparked riots and looting this week in Venezuela's second-largest city, Maracaibo.

Maduro blames the power crunch on the El Nino weather phenomenon, which has unleashed the worst drought in 40 years, reducing the reservoirs at Venezuela's hydroelectric dams.

But the opposition says mismanagement is to blame for the power crisis as well as the recession and shortages.


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Housecarl

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKCN0XT1PD

World | Mon May 2, 2016 3:05pm EDT
Related: World

Venezuela opposition submits 1.85 million signatures in recall effort


Venezuela's opposition said it delivered 1.85 million signatures to the country's elections authority on Monday as part of the process of seeking a recall referendum against President Nicolas Maduro.

Food and medicine shortages, triple-digit inflation, rampant violent crime and increasingly frequent water and power cuts have stoked anger against Maduro.

The Democratic Unity coalition (MUD) gathered far more than the required 1 percent of voters' signatures, or nearly 200,000, needed to trigger the next phase of a recall referendum.

"With this successful strategy the MUD has progressed in achieving urgent political change via impeccably peaceful and constitutional measures," the coalition's head, Jesus Torrealba, tweeted on Monday.

The electoral body must now validate the signatures before the opposition can collect another 20 percent, or around 4 million signatures, before a vote can finally be held.

Maduro has sworn he will not be forced out before his term expires in 2019 and accuses the opposition of seeking a coup against him to destroy the socialist legacy of his predecessor, the late Hugo Chavez.

The government-leaning Supreme Court and electoral board have stymied the opposition-led National Assembly time and time again.

Opponents fear the election board is now trying to drag the referendum process into 2017, when the vice president would take over should Maduro be removed, rather than there being a new election.

"The recall referendum may temporarily pacify voter frustration," Nomura said in a note to clients. "However the purposeful delays from the (electoral board) should eventually backfire with higher social unrest in the streets if voters are unable to vent their frustration via the polls."

Tensions are already rising in the recession-hit oil producer.

Small anti-Maduro protests and looting incidents took place in various cities last month, some triggered by increasing power cuts resulting from energy shortages.

Torrealba was himself attacked by a handful of men throwing stones and punches during a march to protest power cuts last week.

The opposition was scheduled to submit the signatures on Tuesday but said it chose to secretly do so on Monday to avoid clashes.

"The violent ones were left hanging," he said.


(Reporting by Alexandra Ulmer and Brian Ellsworth; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
 

Housecarl

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https://warisboring.com/violence-in-mexico-is-rising-and-spreading-3a3b92ff1a36#.8vas3brzp

War Is Boring
2 days ago·4 min read

Violence in Mexico Is Rising and Spreading

Homicides increase in 2016 but kidnappings and extortion declines

by MICHAEL LOHMULLER

This article originally appeared at InSight Crime.

Data compiled by a Mexican civil society group confirms a disturbing trend noted in Mexico in recent months — violence is not only rising sharply it is also spreading to regions not previously considered organized crime hotspots.

During the first trimester of 2016, Mexican organization Semáforo Delictivo documented a 15 percent increase in homicides related to organized crime. The group’s director, Santiago Roel, said 57 percent of total homicides this year were the result of criminal executions, up from 48 percent for the same period in 2015, reported Excelsior.

In total, Semáforo Delictivo registered 4,456 homicides during the first three months of 2016 — up from 3,862 in 2015 — putting Mexico on pace to have around 18,000 murders this year.

The states found to have the highest homicide rates were: Colima (17.7 per 100,000 citizens), Guerrero (14.5), and Sinaloa (8.3). Those with the least were: Nayarit (0.9), Aguascalientes (0.7), and Yucatán (0.7). Guerrero had the largest number of homicides potentially linked to organized crime, with 436.

Semáforo Delictivo, which translates to “Criminal Stoplight,” also measures incidences of other high impact crimes in Mexico, and found a 12 and nine percent decrease in extortion and kidnapping, respectively, during the first trimester of 2016.

Overall, Colima, Guerrero, and Morelos were identified as the states with the largest deterioration in their security conditions this year, with the organization emphasizing the situation of Colima as particularly alarming, reported Animal Politico.

InSight Crime Analysis

Semáforo Delictivo’s data confirms previous observations of a worrisome trend: Mexico’s homicide rates are climbing.

The Mexican government recently released statistics showing that March saw 1,725 homicide victims, the highest since January 2014 when such data first started being compiled. Moreover, official government data reported 3,158 murders during January and February, an 11 percent increase over the same period in 2015.

Mexico’s increasing homicide levels are in part being driven by geographic regions typically associated with violence and criminal activity, most notably Guerrero. Indeed, the security situation of Guerrero’s once proud tourist-mecca of Acapulco continues to be critical with official figures showing 332 people killed in the city so far this year despite a number of security operations aiming to restore calm in recent years.

One Mexican civil society organization recently ranked Acapulco the country’s most violent municipality, with violence levels nearly four times that the national average.

However, Mexico’s rising homicide trend is even more troubling for the increases in places one might not immediately suspect, such as Colima. In 2015 Colima did not even register among Mexico’s top five most violent states, but an increase in homicides of over 300 percent has helped make it Mexico’s most violent state for the first time ever.

This article originally appeared at InSight Crime.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.businessinsider.com/trou...-as-erdogan-tightens-his-grip-on-power-2016-5

Trouble might be brewing inside the Turkish government as Erdogan tightens his grip on power

Reuters
10h ago
Comments 4

ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey's ruling AK Party has taken authority to appoint provincial party officials away from Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in a move seen reducing his power over grass roots supporters and consolidating the influence of President Tayyip Erdogan.

The step, decided on Friday at a meeting of the AKP's top executive committee, is one of the clearest signs yet of tensions between Erdogan, who wants an executive presidency in Turkey, and Davutoglu, who would be sidelined if the country's parliamentary system were to be replaced.

"This decision will weaken Davutoglu's power over the party. Davutoglu's job will not be easy after this," a senior AKP official told Reuters on Monday, asking not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue.

The Islamist-rooted AK Party, a monolithic institution founded by Erdogan, has governed Turkey for the past 14 years. Critics accuse the president of behaving in an increasingly authoritarian manner, a charge he rejects.

Erdogan was required by the constitution to cut ties to the AKP when he became president in an August 2014 election after more than a decade as prime minister, because the head of state is supposed to be above party politics.

But he still commands deep loyalty in the party and has sought to maintain influence, regularly chairing cabinet meetings in his presidential palace and keeping the AKP's executive committee packed with allies.

Presidential system?

Davutoglu, officially party leader but overshadowed by Erdogan, has struggled to establish his own voice in the AKP. Removing his ability to appoint the provincial officials who make up the backbone of the party further weakens his standing.

"Davutoglu wants to carve out a political space for himself, but Erdogan is not intent on allowing the head of the executive - whether Davutoglu or anybody else - to have any significant degree of political independence," said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and head of the EDAM think-tank in Istanbul.

"Erdogan is intent on fully controlling both the executive but also the political agenda of the country and he can only do that if he has this degree of control."

Omer Celik, deputy leader of the AKP and party spokesman, described the move as a technical step and said it did not point to any "crisis" in the party.

The authority to make party appointments originally rested with the AKP's executive committee (MKYK) but was transferred to Erdogan as then-party leader in 2002, and passed on to Davutoglu when he succeeded Erdogan in 2014.

"This authority has been taken back by the MKYK so that issues concerning the party can be discussed intensively and in more detail," Celik told reporters on Friday evening. "It is not right to consider this change as a very radical move."

Staunch Erdogan loyalists are among the 50 members of the MKYK, including his son-in-law, Energy Minister Berat Albayrak, and his former lawyer Hayati Yazici.

Davutoglu had little option but to sign the ruling handing back authority over appointments to the MKYK, several officials said, or else he would have risked a damaging public row.

Mehmet Ali Sahin, another deputy AKP leader, said in an interview on NTV that the decision has been taken unanimously and was simply meant to give more MPs a say over appointments.

"There has been a lot of speculation but there is no unrest within our party," he said.
 

Housecarl

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http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/05/03/u-s-soldier-killed-by-isis-while-advising-kurdish-troops/

U.S. Soldier Killed by ISIS While Advising Kurdish Troops

By J. Dana Stuster
May 3, 2016

A U.S. soldier was killed near Irbil, Iraq, when Islamic State forces broke through a line held by Kurdish peshmerga and advanced “two to three miles” to where U.S. forces were advising Kurdish troops. This is the third U.S. combat death fighting the Islamic State in Iraq. Few details have been released so far.

Despite protests in Baghdad, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi is “in a very strong position,” U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter told reporters yesterday while en route to Germany for a meeting with other leaders of the military coalition to defeat the Islamic State. “Prime Minister Abadi stands for and has been a partner in all of the things that are important to Iraq’s future, namely a country that holds together and doesn’t just spiral off into sectarianism,” he said. Gen. Joseph Dunford, who is also traveling to Germany for the meeting, told Foreign Policy that the United States is “concerned” about the political deadlock and its potential implications.

U.N. Envoy in Moscow in Effort to Restore Ceasefire to Aleppo

U.N. Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura is in Moscow today meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to try to make progress toward restoring a ceasefire in Aleppo. De Mistura’s meeting with Lavrov comes a day after a series of meetings held by Secretary of State John Kerry that he said have come close to reinstating the ceasefire but require more support. Violence in Aleppo is continuing today and reports have noted several deaths in government-held neighborhoods from rebel shelling and rocket attacks, including three women who were killed in an attack on a hospital. More than 250 people have been killed in Aleppo in the past two weeks since the collapse of the ceasefire, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Headlines
•A proposed amendment to the Turkish constitution that would strip parliamentarians of immunity, clearing the way for prosecutions of sitting pro-Kurdish opposition politicians, was passed out of committee after a debate on the measure turned to a brawl and pro-Kurdish parliamentarians walked out of the proceedings.


•A British foreign fighter with the Islamic State, Raphael Hostey, who was responsible for much of the organization’s English-language propaganda and British recruitment was killed in Syria, probably in an airstrike.


•The Israeli military will hold Palestinian journalist Omar Nazzal in “administrative detention” for four months without charge or trial on suspicion of “unlawful activity” with a terrorist group, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.


•The Saudi Ministry of the Interior killed two men in a gunfight and arrested a third in a counterterrorism operation in Bisha province over the weekend; the operation was reportedly in response to an imminent threat and the men were suspected of involvement in Islamic State attacks in Saudi Arabia.


•Egyptian journalists have called for protests at the Journalists’ Syndicate building in Cairo today in observance of World Press Freedom Day and in response to a police raid on the building on Sunday in which two journalists were arrested.

Arguments and Analysis

“Is Muqtada al-Sadr Good for Iraq?” (Renad Mansour and Michael David Clark, War on the Rocks)

“Sadr has since undergone a rebranding process. He disbanded the notorious Mehdi Army and later established Saraya al-Salam (the Peace Brigades), which semantically has a less aggressive and non-sectarian tone. Last year, in a battle against the Islamic State, Sadr withdrew his paramilitary fighters as soon as allegations emerged of crimes committed by his men. Moving away from strictly a sectarian militia, his fighters are also fighting alongside Sunni tribes, such as the Albu Nimr in Anbar, against the Islamic State. Moreover, members of his paramilitary have welcomed the idea of integration into the Iraqi state, but only when the government’s security apparatus is perceived as effective and legitimate. Many analysts criticize Sadr for hypocrisy, claiming to fight corruption while sending individuals from his own ranks to become government officials. His officials have been part of the very problem of corruption that Sadr claims to oppose. However, Sadr is increasingly cautious about who he sends to represent his voice in government. Under accusations of corruption, he has on occasion removed the bad apples and blessed the courts’ legal proceedings. For instance, when Abadi issued legal proceedings against Sadrist Deputy Prime Minister Baha Araji, Sadr issued a statement ordering Araji to resign and forbade him from leaving the country prior to completion of the judicial procedures.”



“The Time Has Come for a ‘Sexual Spring’ in the Arab World” (Kacem El Ghazzali, Huffington Post)

“When we say that nowadays to call for sexual freedom in Arab and Muslim societies is more dangerous than the demand to topple monarchies or dictatorial regimes, we are not playing with metaphor or attempting to gain sympathy. We are stating a bitter and painful fact of the reality in which we are living. In Arab and Muslim milieus, sex is considered a means and not an end, hedged by many prickly restrictions that make it an objectionable matter and synonymous with sin. Its function within marriage is confined to procreation and nothing else, and all sexual activity outside the institution of marriage is banned legally and rejected socially. Innocent children born out of wedlock are socially rejected and considered foundlings. This situation cannot be said to be characteristic of Arab societies only, but we experience these miseries in far darker and more intense ways than in other countries.”

-J. Dana Stuster
 

Housecarl

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http://www.military.com/daily-news/2016/05/03/q-and-a-when-is-boot-ground-not-boot-ground.html

Q&A: When Is a Boot on the Ground Not a Boot on the Ground?

Associated Press | May 03, 2016 | by Lolita C. Baldor


WASHINGTON — No one disputes that U.S. military forces are fighting in combat in Iraq and Syria -- except maybe President Barack Obama and some members of his administration.

The semantic arguments over whether there are American "boots on the ground" muddy the view of a situation in which several thousand armed U.S. military personnel are in Iraq and Syria. Obama has said more than a dozen times that there would be no combat troops in Iraq and Syria as the number of service members in those countries grows; last week, Defense Secretary Ash Carter acknowledged the military personnel there were in combat and "we should say that clearly."

So, when is a military boot on the ground? And what does it all mean?

Are U.S. military troops in Iraq?

Yes. More than 5,500 U.S. service members. The Pentagon, however, counts them in different ways. Obama recently authorized an increase in the number of troops that can deploy to Iraq to advise and assist Iraqi forces in fighting the Islamic State. The cap was increased last week from 3,870 to 4,087.

But a number of troops aren't counted against the cap because of the military's personnel accounting system. For example, troops assigned to the U.S. Embassy for security or those sent to Iraq for temporary, short-term assignments are there in addition to the 4,087.

Defense Secretary Ash Carter, in Stuttgart, Germany for a change-of-command ceremony Tuesday, revealed that a serviceman had been killed in combat near Irbil in Iraq. A U.S. military official, speaking on grounds of anonymity, said the American was killed while performing his duty as an adviser to Kurdish Peshmerga troops. He was killed by "direct fire" after Islamic State forces penetrated the Peshmerga's forward line. The official said the American was three to two to three miles behind the front line.

Are U.S. military troops in Syria?


Yes. Last week the Pentagon announced an increase in the number of U.S. forces working in Syria from 50 to 300. Those troops are working with local Syrian forces and are mainly Army special forces, but the latest increase will also include medical and logistics units.

So, that would mean there are U.S. "boots on the ground" in Iraq and Syria, wouldn't it?


Yes it would. In Iraq there are advisers, trainers, special operations forces and others stationed at Iraqi bases, working with the Iraqi forces. Last week, Defense Secretary Ash Carter announced that some advisers would begin working with Iraqis at the brigade and battalion level. They had been working with Iraqis at the division headquarters level. The change would embed those teams of advisers with smaller units, who would likely be closer to the fight.

In Syria, the U.S. has about 50 special operations forces going into Syria from a base in a neighboring country to meet with local Syrian opposition forces. They aren't based in Syria, so they travel in and out, sometimes staying in the country for several days at a time. According to officials, the additional 250 forces will do the same thing. They will not be based in Syria, but will instead work out of neighboring countries, such as Iraq or Turkey. And they are not there to fight alongside the Syrians, they are there to provide advice and other assistance.

What about air strikes? Aren't pilots flying combat missions?


Yes they are. Gen. Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made it clear during a Senate hearing last week that U.S. fighter jets conducting airstrikes in Iraq and Syria are conducting combat missions.

Why does the administration say there are no U.S. boots on the ground?


Obama administration officials have consistently told the American public since 2013 that there will be no combat "boots on the ground" in Iraq and Syria. Their argument is based on the idea that there are no conventional U.S. ground forces in large units fighting the Islamic State militants in direct combat. Saying there are "no U.S. boots on the ground" — while inaccurate — is meant to convey the administration's view that U.S. troops are not on the front lines waging the war. Instead, U.S. troops are advising and assisting the Iraqi and Syrian forces, providing training, intelligence, and logistical support from behind the battlefront.

The parsing of words is meant to differentiate the latest Islamic State conflicts from earlier wars in Iraq and Afghanistan when thousands of U.S. troops were battling the enemy in small units and in close combat.

Carter told the Senate Armed Services Committee last week that U.S. troops are not going to war to substitute for the local forces, but are trying "to get them powerful enough that they can expel ISIL with our support. And when we provide that support, we put people in harm's way. We ask them to conduct combat actions."

Aren't special operations forces in direct combat in Iraq or Syria?


A: Probably. But the Pentagon doesn't talk about the often highly classified operations that U.S. commandos -- including Army Delta Force or Navy SEALs -- are doing no matter where they are. And Army special forces — or Green Berets — are in many war-torn countries providing training and assistance, because that's one of their key jobs.

In some cases, U.S. officials have acknowledged special operations missions to capture or kill high-value targets or to try and rescue hostages.

But those are not considered "boots on the ground" because they often move in and out quickly, and stay for short periods of time.


Related Topics
Headlines, Global Hot Spots, Iraq, Syria, Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
 

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http://www.breitbart.com/national-s...uding-obama-leave-white-house-wars-inherited/

With Term Concluding, Obama to Leave White House with More Wars than He Inherited

by Matt Purple
2 May 2016
Comments 13


Barack Obama was elected president in 2008 on a pledge to end the war in Iraq.


Of course, to those who were paying attention, Obama’s strategy was more of a re-deployment than a retrenchment, shifting resources away from the Mesopotamian theater and into efforts to counter al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan. But for a country weary of war in Iraq, the President’s words resonated. He summed up his own appeal at a press conference in 2013: “I was elected to end wars, not start them.”

Today, President Obama has not just failed to end wars, he has involved America in two new ones. The most recent of those fronts is Syria, where the White House has announced that 250 military personnel are on the way to help fight the Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL). That is a worthy goal, certainly, but given the sticky and ever-changing web of alliances that constitutes the Syrian Civil War, can a greater American presence fight only ISIS without inadvertently aiding the regime, or abetting the rebels, or marching headlong into the crossfire between Turkey and the Kurds? It isn’t clear.

Syria is not the only place America is heading back to war. President Obama supposedly pulled most of the troops out of Iraq in 2011; now we’re back, with 5,000 boots on the ground and counting, a number that exceeds even the administration’s self-imposed cap of 3,870. In February, Obama launched airstrikes against militants in Libya, where pressure is mounting for a greater American role. And in Afghanistan, the forever war against the resurgent Taliban continues.

The result is that whoever is unlucky enough to take Obama’s place in the Oval Office will inherit more wars than then-Senator Obama himself did, against a more capable terrorist threat than President Bush faced, in the midst of a Middle East that is bleeding like never before.

Under the previous administration, America became bogged down in Iraq. But despite the flow of foreign soldiers and obstreperous rhetoric about “real men go to Tehran,” our woes were mostly limited to that single country. Obama has broadened our commitment significantly while also reducing our number of boots on the ground. Those two approaches are, of course, contradictory, and so now he finds himself gradually upping our troop presence once again.

Some of this is due to events beyond Obama’s control. The White House could not have hoped to contain the Arab Spring (though it should have predicted that it would spiral out of control), and the Islamic State’s blaze across Iraq took even the most seasoned foreign policy observers by surprise. But there is no question that several of Obama’s decisions directly contributed to the Middle East’s unraveling. His deposal of Moammar Gaddafi, his arming the question-mark-laden Syrian rebels, his aiding the reckless Saudi campaign in Yemen, and his Alfred E. Neuman attitude towards drone warfare have all bolstered the terrorist groups we are supposed to be defeating.

This goes well beyond the Islamic State. Though the Saudis have recently thrown some bombs in the general direction of terrorism, there is no question their attack on Yemen has aided al Qaeda. The group’s franchise in Syria, al Nusra, is flourishing as well. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States still harbor donors and academies that contribute to terrorism. Even Tunisia—once touted as the sole surviving blossom of the Arab Spring—is now the world’s number one pipeline for ISIS recruits, as disenchanted locals decide something more extreme than democracy is required this time around.

Our war in Iraq has exploded into a region-wide conflagration.

When President Reagan decided America’s participation in the byzantine Lebanese Civil War had become a distraction, he acted decisively and pulled the Marines out of Beirut. In contrast, President Obama finds himself getting sucked in not just to the equally convoluted Syrian Civil War, but several other conflicts, intervening and then intervening further to stem the consequences of his interventions.

It is a strange ending for a president who promised to end wars and assured the public no fewer than 10 times that he would not deploy troops to Syria. Yet here we are. Can the next president do any better?

Matt Purple is a fellow at Defense Priorities and deputy editor at Rare Politics.
 

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http://thecipherbrief.com/article/asia/nuclear-deterrence-and-assurance-east-asia-1090

Nuclear Deterrence and Assurance in East Asia

May 3, 2016 | Will Edwards

Among Republican frontrunner Donald Trump’s array of foreign policy positions, is the suggestion that South Korea and Japan develop nuclear weapons for their own security so the U.S. would not have to take responsibility for their protection. While national security experts responded that Trump’s view was nearsighted and would be counterproductive for regional stability, the comment did highlight a longstanding and controversial security question for Japan and South Korea: can they trust the U.S. nuclear umbrella, and if not, will they develop their own nuclear deterrent? North Korea, the primary reason Japan and South Korea need a deterrent, continues to exacerbate the issue with its continued nuclear and missile tests. For U.S. policy makers, it is important to understand where these countries stand on nuclear weapons and what their capabilities are to create nuclear weapons in order to balance a non-proliferation policy with regional security.

Japan and South Korea display varying degrees of nuclear latency, that is not having nuclear weapons but possessing the technological acumen and resources to quickly create them for national defense. Between the two countries, Japan exhibits a much higher degree of nuclear latency. It has full control of its nuclear fuel cycle, meaning it is not prohibited from producing plutonium, a fissile material, in its civilian reactor; its satellite launch vehicles are large enough to carry a nuclear warhead; and it has a domestic plutonium stockpile amounting to nearly 10 tons, which by one estimate is enough for 1,000 weapons.

South Korea by comparison cannot produce plutonium due to a legal agreement with the U.S., which has become a contentious issue in recent years. Seoul wants full control of its civilian nuclear program, but the U.S. has been loath to revisit the agreement, as it opens the door for South Korea to create its own plutonium stockpile. Seoul also has built a satellite launch vehicle that could double as an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM).

In society and the political sphere, South Korea does not have the same aversion to nuclear weapons as Japan. A survey conducted in South Korea after North Korea’s fourth nuclear test showed that around 55 percent of South Koreans wanted their country to develop its own nuclear deterrent. Conversely, a 2009 poll in Japan showed that only 24 percent of Japanese wanted to repeal the laws that prohibited its development of nuclear weapons.

Sentiments among politicians exhibit a similar trend. While outspoken South Korean politicians, like Chung Mong Joon and Won Yoo Chel, advocate for nuclear weapons to defend against North Korea, the Park administration has shown no inclination towards weapons development. In Japan the discourse is more reserved and equally against weapons development. A former Japanese cabinet member remarked that “[Japan] will not seek to produce nuclear weapons, but possessing advanced technology and plutonium shows other nations that our country can produce them whenever it wants. This is tantamount to a certain measure of deterrent power."

For U.S policymakers, the technical abilities and domestic conditions need to be placed in context in order to identify shifts towards nuclear proliferation. Former chief of analysis for the CIA Nonproliferation Center, Torrey Froscher, made clear to The Cipher Brief that “there is no reason to suspect that [either country] is evading its obligation to forgo nuclear weapons,” but the latent capacity of either country cannot be ignored. Thomas Cynkin, a former U.S. diplomat in Japan added that close observation of political and technological developments is important to keeping abreast of any changes in how either country views a homegrown nuclear weapons program.

Both Froscher and Cynkin agree that U.S. interest and involvement in regional security are essential to sustaining non-proliferation in East Asia. An important lesson from the Cold War that still underpins strategic thought on nuclear weapons was that a nuclear deterrent is ineffective without a credible show of intent. Just as deterrence without intent is an ineffective display to one’s enemies, assurance without resolve is an ineffective gesture to one’s allies. Therefore, the U.S. cannot afford to allow Tokyo or Seoul to doubt its nuclear umbrella. In that regard, U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Mark Lippert was quick to shoot down Trump’s assertion that South Korea takes care of its own security by developing nuclear weapons. Lippert called the alliance between the U.S. and South Korea “one of the premier military alliances in the world.” Maintaining the trust implicit in Lippert’s message could be the U.S.’s strongest hedge against nuclear proliferation in East Asia.

Will Edwards is an International Producer with The Cipher Brief.
 

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-congress-idUSKCN0XU06K

World | Tue May 3, 2016 8:24am EDT
Related: World, South Korea, North Korea

North Korea capital gears up for congress; South fears nuclear test

PYONGYANG | By James Pearson


North Korea's rain-soaked capital was festooned on Tuesday with banners celebrating leader Kim Jong Un ahead of a ruling party congress, as rival South Korea expressed concern that Pyongyang could conduct a nuclear test before or during the rare event.

Flower pots lined balconies along streets that have been tidied as part of a 70-day campaign for the first Workers' Party congress in 36 years, which starts on Friday.

At the congress, Kim is expected to declare isolated North Korea a nuclear weapons state and formally adopt his "Byongjin" policy to push simultaneously for economic development and nuclear capability.


It follows Kim's father's Songun, or "military first," policy and his grandfather's Juche, the North's home-grown founding ideology that combines Marxism and extreme nationalism.

"Let's uphold Great Comrade Kim Jong Un's Songun revolutionary leadership with patriotism!," one banner read.

Isolated North Korea has conducted a series of weapons tests, including three failed launches of an intermediate-range missile, in the run-up to the Workers' Party congress.

One banner in Pyongyang extolled a February rocket launch that put a satellite in space. Overseas, however, the launch drew condemnation as a ballistic missile test in disguise.

Kim has aggressively pursued nuclear weapons and could be looking to a successful fifth test this week as a crowning achievement, foreign analysts have said. South Korean Defence Minister Han Min-koo said Pyongyang's nuclear test may come before or around the time of the opening of the congress.

"North Korea's goal is to be internationally recognized as a nuclear weapons state," Han told a parliamentary hearing on Tuesday. "We believe its nuclear capability is advancing."

North Korea has invited foreign media to cover the congress, although journalists' movements are closely managed and much of the country and its people remain off-limits to outsiders.

Pyongyang citizens "fervently welcomed participants of the congress who have given all their patriotic passion ... as a new generation of true warriors of Juche revolution under the leadership of dear comrade Kim Jong Un," North Korea's official Rodong Sinmun newspaper said on Tuesday.

Security has been stepped up ahead of the congress.

The Daily NK, a website run by defectors with sources in North Korea, said that since mid-April, free movement in and out of the capital had been stopped and security personnel summoned from the provinces to step up domestic surveillance.


FIRST SINCE 1980

The party congress is the first since 1980, before the 33-year-old Kim was born. His father and predecessor, Kim Jong Il, who died in December 2011, never held one.

While some past party congresses featured representatives from countries the North has ties with, South Korean officials have said they were not aware of invitations sent to official foreign guests for the upcoming event.

North Korea has become increasingly isolated over its pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, and was hit with tightened U.N. Security Council sanctions in March that were backed by its chief ally, China, in response to a January nuclear test.

Pyongyang has conducted a flurry of missile and other weapons tests in the run-up to the congress, although not all have been successful. It made three attempts last month of what was believed to be its intermediate-range Musudan missile, all of which failed, according to U.S. and South Korean officials.

The congress is expected to last four or five days, South Korean government officials and experts said. Kim may decide to take on the post of party General Secretary, a position held by his late father, elevating himself from First Secretary.

"It is now his era, and the elders have passed away, and the idea will be that if he remains first secretary, then he might think he won't get enough respect because of that," said An Chan-il, former North Korean military official who now heads a think tank in Seoul.


(Additional reporting by Jack Kim and Ju-min Park; Editing by Tony Munroe and Raju Gopalakrishnan)


More from Reuters

•U.S. warns of 'other' options if North Korea continues nuclear, missile tests |26 Apr

•U.S. tells Pakistan it will have to fund F-16s itself |2 May

•Pakistan raps Trump over vow to free doctor who helped track bin Laden |2 May

•Russia warns U.S. over naval incident as NATO tensions | 21 April
 

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-member-killed-iraq-u-defense-chief-101708858.html

Islamic State kills U.S. serviceman in northern Iraq

By Phil Stewart and Andrea Shalal
Reuters
May 3, 2016

STUTTGART, Germany (Reuters) - Islamic State militants killed a U.S. serviceman in northern Iraq on Tuesday after blasting through Kurdish defences and overrunning a town in the biggest offensive in the area for months, officials said.

The dead man was the third American to be killed in direct combat since a U.S.-led coalition launched a campaign in 2014 to "degrade and destroy" the jihadist group, and is a measure of its deepening involvement in the conflict.

"It is a combat death, of course, and a very sad loss," U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter told reporters during a trip to Germany.

A U.S. defense official said the dead man was a Navy SEAL. The SEALs are considered to be among the most able U.S. special operations forces and capable of taking on dangerous missions.

A senior official within the Kurdish peshmerga forces facing Islamic State in northern Iraq said the man had been killed near the town of Tel Asqof, around 28 kilometers (17 miles) from the militant stronghold of Mosul.

The Islamic State insurgents occupied the town at dawn on Tuesday but were driven out later in the day by the peshmerga. A U.S. military official said the coalition had helped the peshmerga with air support from F-15 jets and drones.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the man was killed "by direct fire" from Islamic State.

Carter's spokesman, Peter Cook, said the incident took place during an Islamic State attack on a peshmerga position some 3-5 km behind the forward line.

SNIPERS AND SUICIDE BOMBERS

Such Islamic State incursions are rare in northern Iraq, where the Kurdish peshmerga have pushed the militants back with the help of coalition air strikes and set up defensive lines that the militants are rarely able to breach.

The leader of a Christian militia deployed alongside peshmerga in Tel Asqof said the insurgents had used multiple suicide bombers, some driving vehicles laden with explosives, to penetrate peshmerga lines.

The Kurdistan Region Security Council said at least 25 Islamic State vehicles had been destroyed on Tuesday and more than 80 militants killed. At least 10 peshmerga also died in the fighting, according to a Kurdish official who posted pictures of the victims on Twitter.

The peshmerga also deflected Islamic State attacks on the Bashiqa front and in the Khazer area, about 40 km west of the Kurdish regional capital Erbil, Kurdish military sources said.

In mid-April the United States announced plans to send an additional 200 troops to Iraq, and put them closer to the front lines of battle to advise Iraqi forces in the war against Islamic State.

Last month, an Islamic State attack on a U.S. base killed Marine Staff Sergeant Louis Cardin and wounded eight other Americans providing force protection fire to Iraqi army troops.

The Islamist militants have been broadly retreating since December, when the Iraqi army recaptured Ramadi, the largest city in the western region. Last month, the Iraqi army retook the nearby region of Hit, pushing the militants further north along the Euphrates valley.

But U.S. officials acknowledge that the military gains against Islamic State are not enough.

Iraq is beset by political infighting, corruption, a growing fiscal crisis and the Shi'ite Muslim-led government's fitful efforts to seek reconciliation with aggrieved minority Sunnis, the bedrock of Islamic State support.

(Additional reporting by Isabel Coles in Erbil; Editing by Gareth Jones)

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U.S. tells Pakistan it will have to fund F-16s itself

Reuters
May 3, 2016

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has told Pakistan it will have to finance the purchase of American F-16 fighter jets itself after members of the U.S. Congress objected to using government funds to pay for them.

The U.S. government said in February it had approved the sale to Pakistan of up to eight F-16 fighter jets built by Lockheed Martin Corp , as well as radar and other equipment in a deal valued at $699 million.

However, Republican Senator Bob Corker said he would use his power as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to bar use of any U.S. funds for the deal to send a message to Pakistan that it needed to do more in the war against militants.

Corker's stance reflected deep unhappiness among both Democrats and Republicans in Congress about what they see as Islamabad’s policy of supporting elements of the Taliban and the Haqqani network blamed for attacks in Afghanistan.

Members of Congress also raised the possibility of the fighter jets being used against Pakistan's neighbor India, with whom it has fought three wars. India objected to the deal.

Pakistan's military says the F-16s it already owns have been integral in fighting the Pakistani Taliban and its allies in the country's tribal areas, particularly due to the aircraft's precision strike and night-flying capability.

U.S. State Department spokesman John Kirby said congressional opposition meant funds from the U.S. government's Foreign Military Financing allocation could not be used to buy the aircraft.

"Given congressional objections, we have told the Pakistanis that they should put forward national funds for that purpose," he told a regular news briefing.

Kirby said he believed that effective engagement with Pakistan, including supporting its counter-terrorism effort, was "critical" to promoting democracy and stability.

Sartaj Aziz, Pakistan's foreign policy chief, told reporters in Islamabad that while the U.S. had barred use of the funds for F-16s, the allocation of roughly $240 million could be used "for other purchases".

"We will examine this with the suppliers to see if there is an alternative source of financing," he said.

"So if any arrangements can be made, we will buy them, otherwise obviously we will have to look for planes from somewhere else."

Lockheed Martin said in March it was using its own funds to pay suppliers and stave off closure of its F-16 fighter jet production line as it waited to finalize orders from Pakistan and other countries.

(Reporting by David Brunnstrom; Additional reporting by Idrees Ali in WASHINGTON and Asad Hashim in ISLAMABAD; Editing by Dan Grebler and Nick Macfie)

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/japan-agrees-lease-military-aircraft-philippines-050815514.html?nhp=1

Japan agrees to lease military aircraft to Philippines

May 2, 2016

Japan will lease military aircraft to the Philippines in another sign of deepening security ties between the two former foes to counter Beijing's increasing regional influence.

The agreement was made Monday afternoon during telephone talks between Japan's Defence Minister Gen Nakatani and his Philippine counterpart Voltaire Gazmin, the ministry said.

Tensions in the South China Sea -- through which one third of the world's oil passes -- have mounted in recent years since China transformed contested reefs into artificial islands capable of supporting military facilities.

Under the accord, Tokyo will lease up to five TC-90 training airplanes and help Manila train pilots and aircraft mechanics, the ministry said. The planes can be used as surveillance aircraft, according to local media.

It will be Japan's first lease of its Self-Defence Forces' aircraft to another country after it recently lifted a self-imposed ban on weapons exports.

"We agreed that it is important for all the countries in the region to strengthen cooperation in order to maintain peace and stability of the South China Sea," Nakatani told reporters.

"We believe that improving the Philippines' capability will lead to stability in the region," he added.

The TC-90 is capable of flying some 1,900 kilometres (1,180 miles), roughly double the flight range of the Philippine navy's aircraft, Kyodo News said.

The Philippines has been seeking to strengthen ties with Japan, its former World War II rival, as tensions mount over disputed South China Sea waters, almost all of which are claimed by China. The southeast Asian country has a severely under-equipped military.

Aside from the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan also have overlapping claims to the contested waterway.

Japan has its own dispute with China in the East China Sea over uninhabited islands that it administers but that are also claimed by Beijing.

A Japanese warship last month sailed into a Philippine port near disputed South China Sea waters while Tokyo agreed in February to supply Manila with military hardware, which may include anti-submarine reconnaissance aircraft and radar technology.

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REPORT: Germany ‘Annexing’ Dutch Military As Secretive EU Army Begins To Take Shape
Started by Intestinal Fortitude‎, 04-21-2016 10:03 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...ary-As-Secretive-EU-Army-Begins-To-Take-Shape


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http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/germany-pushes-european-army-1557866

Germany pushes for European army

By Rachel Middleton May 3, 2016 06:20 BST
Updated 8 hr ago

Germany is pushing for a European army in the 28-member EU bloc, according to a white paper put forward by the German government. The army is envisaged to have a joint headquarters and shared military plans.

The news may upset the Brexit debate in the UK ahead of the EU referendum vote scheduled for 23 June. The Leave campaign, which has been warning of the further integration with the EU, will now have more ammunition to back its claims.

The Financial Times noted that the white paper is "one of the most significant" for Germany in recent years, given that Berlin has "long paid lip-service" to the formation of a European defence union. It noted that the white paper was to have been released shortly before the 23 June referendum but has probably been delayed to July.

According to the newspaper, the draft white paper outlines steps to "gradually coordinate Europe's patchwork of national militaries" and launch permanent cooperation under common structures among the member states. The initiatives proposed include strengthening cyberwarfare abilities.

Another proposal includes relaxing the post-war restrictions on army operations within Germany — a rather contentious issue. Deployments dealing with violence or threats of violence within Germany have been banned over fears of evoking Nazi-era practices. The draft proposal, according to the FT, seeks to end the ban, noting the "character and dynamic of current and future security-political threats".

"German security policy has relevance — also for beyond our country. Germany is willing to join early, decisively and substantially as a driving force in international debates ... to take responsibility and assume leadership," the white paper said.

The FT says the paper calls for "the use of all possibilities" that are permissible under the EU treaties such as establishing deep cooperation between willing member states, create a joint civil military headquarters for the EU operations, a council of defence ministers and better coordination of the production and sharing of military equipment.

It also noted the role of Nato in a European army. "The more we Europeans are ready to take on a greater share of the common burden and the more our American partner is prepared to go along the road of common decision-making, the further the transatlantic security partnership will develop greater intensity and richer results," the paper adds.

Roderich Kiesewetter, a Bundestag foreign affairs committee member wrote in a recent paper: "The creation of a European army is a long way off, but it is a strategic necessity to implement important steps to pave the way towards it now."


More from IBTimes UK

- Jean-Claude Juncker: The EU needs an army against Russia

- 'Creative accounting' helped UK government meet Nato defence spending target say MPs

- UK terror threat: Nato and EU say 'justified concerns' Isis planning chemical and nuclear attacks
 

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NATO may create ground force in Baltics and Poland to deter Russia

Robert Burns and Deb Riechmann, The Associated Press 9:09 a.m. EDT May 3, 2016

STUTTGART, Germany — The NATO alliance is considering establishing a rotational ground force in the Baltic states and possibly Poland, reflecting deepening worry about Russian military assertiveness, U.S.Defense Secretary Ash Carter said Monday.

"That is one of the ideas that's under discussion," Carter told reporters flying with him from Washington to Stuttgart, Germany, where he is to preside Tuesday at a ceremony installing a new commander of U.S. European Command. Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti is to replace Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, who has frequently and publicly cautioned that Russia poses a potential threat to European stability.


MILITARYTIMES
U.S. Army 4-star to become NATO alliance's new supreme commander


Carter said the allies are considering a rotational ground force of four battalions, which would mean about 4,000 troops. That would be in addition to, and separate from, a recently announced unilateral U.S. decision to send a U.S. armored brigade of about 4,200 troops to Eastern Europe next February.


MILITARYTIMES
The Pentagon starts planning to base more troops in Europe


Carter said the idea of a separate NATO rotational ground force is likely to be further discussed at a NATO meeting in June.

Russia has accused the U.S. and NATO of returning to a Cold War mindset of mutual suspicion and military competition, even as it continues to buzz U.S. ships and planes in the Baltics.

Speaking more broadly of U.S. and NATO relations with Russia, Carter said Moscow has chosen to move away from integration with the West. "Therefore, we have no alternative but to do what we're doing, which is stand strong," by improving the U.S. military posture in Europe and collaborating closely with NATO allies, he said.


MILITARYTIMES
U.S. vs. Russia: What a war would look like between the world's most fearsome militaries


At the same time, Carter said, the U.S. is willing to "hold the door open if Russian behavior should change" and to work with Russia in areas where the two countries still have mutual interests, such with the Iran nuclear deal.

In his remarks en route to Stuttgart, Carter also called the buzzing of U.S. Navy ships and aircraft in the Baltics "unprofessional," adding that it seems to be happening more frequently.

"This kind of unprofessional behavior by its nature creates a dangerous circumstance," he said.

At the Pentagon on Monday, the Navy's top officer said the Russian actions in the Baltics are escalating tension between the two nations.

"My hope is that we can stop this sort of activity," Adm. John M. Richardson, the chief of naval operations, told reporters.

"I don't think the Russians are trying to provoke an incident. I think they're trying to send a signal," he said. "I think it's pretty clear that they are wanting to let us know that they see that we are up there in the Baltic."

The Defense Department said a Russian SU-27 conducted a barrel roll Friday over a U.S. Air Force RC-135 that was flying a reconnaissance mission above the Baltic Sea. The RC-135 is an intelligence-gathering aircraft.

In mid-April, a Russian jet flew about 50 feet from the wing tip of a U.S. aircraft. Also in April, two Russian jets flew close to the USS Donald Cook in the Baltic Sea.


MILITARYTIMES
Russian attack aircraft just flew within 30 feet of a U.S. Navy ship


Richardson said the actions increase the chance of a "tactical miscalculation," but that if an incident were to occur, the U.S. would tamp down any rise in tensions between the two countries.

"We look for sort of a normalization there," he said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov last week said the pilots decided to take a look at the U.S. Navy destroyer "from a safe distance." The planes were less than 100 feet away from the deck of the ship, traveling at hundreds of miles per hour.

Secretary of State John Kerry condemned the Russian actions and said the Navy ship could have opened fire.

___

Riechmann reported from Washington.
 

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http://www.militarytimes.com/story/...cuses-russia-nuclear-saber-rattling/83871654/

Ash Carter accuses Russia of 'nuclear saber-rattling'

Robert Burns, The Associated Press 12:17 p.m. EDT May 3, 2016

STUTTGART, Germany — Defense Secretary Ash Carter used a U.S. military changing-of-the-guard ceremony Tuesday to blast Russian aggression in Europe, saying Moscow is "going backward in time" with warlike actions that compel a U.S. military buildup on NATO's eastern flank.

"We do not seek a cold — let alone a hot — war with Russia," Carter said. "We do not seek to make Russia an enemy. But make no mistake, we will defend our allies, the rules-based international order, and the positive future it affords us."

Carter presided at a ceremony installing Army Gen. Curtis "Mike" Scaparrotti as head of U.S. European Command and the top NATO commander in Europe. Scaparrotti most recently commanded U.S. and allied troops in South Korea and has commanded troops in Afghanistan. He succeeds Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, who has pointedly and repeatedly warned that NATO must better prepare for an adversarial relationship with Russia.

Carter's remarks reflect U.S. aggravation with Moscow on multiple fronts, including its intervention in eastern Ukraine, its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and what Carter called Russian efforts to intimidate its Baltic neighbors — which the United States is treaty-bound to defend because they are NATO members. "Most disturbing," Carter said, is loose talk by Russia about using nuclear weapons.

"Moscow's nuclear saber-rattling raises troubling questions about Russia's leaders' commitment to strategic stability, their respect for norms against the use of nuclear weapons, and whether they respect the profound caution that nuclear-age leaders showed with regard to brandishing nuclear weapons," he said.


MILITARYTIMES
NATO may create ground force in Baltics and Poland to deter Russia


The end of the Cold War, with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, was thought to have virtually ended the prospect of nuclear conflict with Moscow. But the speeches at Tuesday's change-of-command ceremony emphasized the possibility of history repeating itself, or at least ending a period of warmer U.S.-Russian relations.

Breedlove, who will retire after serving three years as NATO's top commander in Europe, recalled that he began his Air Force career in Europe more than 30 years ago.

"My career started here in a cold war trying to keep the peace. I think my career is now ending here trying to prevent a cold war and continue to keep the peace," he said.

Carter said he regretted the deterioration in relations with Moscow.

"We haven't had to prioritize deterrence on NATO's eastern flank for the past 25 years, but while I wish it were otherwise, now we have to," he said at an outdoor ceremony, speaking from a podium framed by birch trees and drenched in sunshine.

Carter outlined steps the Obama administration is taking to increase U.S. and allied combat capabilities in Europe with the threat of Russian aggression in mind. These include plans to add a third U.S. Army combat brigade in Europe in the coming year as part of a $3.4 billion initiative designed to further reassure allies of the U.S. commitment to their security and to deter Russian aggression.

On Monday, Carter said NATO is considering establishing a continuous rotation of up to 4,000 troops in the Baltic states and possibly Poland. That force, which could include some number of U.S. troops, is among options being discussed by NATO officials and is expected to be considered at a NATO defense meeting in June.

"Our budget also reflects how we're doing more, and in more ways, with specific NATO allies," Carter said. "Given increased Russian submarine activity in the North Atlantic, this includes building toward a continuous arc of highly capable maritime patrol aircraft operating over the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom gap up to Norway's North Cape."

Carter emphasized his hope that Russia will abandon what he called its confrontational approach.

"The United States will continue to hold out the possibility that Russia will assume the role of a constructive partner moving forward, not isolated and going backward in time as it appears to be today," he said. "Much of the progress we've made together since the end of the Cold War, we accomplished with Russia. Let me repeat that. Not in spite of Russia, not against Russia, not without Russia, but with it."

He made no mention of two post-Cold War developments that many believe prompted, at least in part, Russia's turn away from the West, namely, the expansion of NATO to Russia's very doorstep and U.S. placement of missile defenses in Europe.

"We'll keep the door open for Russia," he said. But it's up to the Kremlin to decide."
 

Housecarl

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https://geopoliticalfutures.com/protests-spread-across-kazakhstan/

Protests Spread Across Kazakhstan

May 2, 2016 Unrest in Central Asia could signal regional destabilization.

By Lili Bayer

Nearly 30 years ago, in December 1986, several thousand young Kazakhs took to the streets in protest over the appointment of an ethnic Russian, Gennady Kolbin, as new head of the then-Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic’s branch of the Communist Party. The protests spread to several towns before Soviet security forces violently cracked down on the demonstrators. The 1986 protests in Kazakhstan are remembered today by outsiders as a relatively minor episode in the lead up to the momentous fall of the Soviet Union five years later. And yet, it was these demonstrations that were among the first signals that a significant change was underway in the Soviet Union.

Large-scale protests in Central Asia today are relatively rare. Most of the region’s regimes use a variety of tools, from crackdowns to patronage networks, to prevent potential unrest. Nevertheless, Central Asia is slowly destabilizing. The region is at the crossroads of several interrelated crises. To the north, Russia is experiencing significant financial challenges. To the east, China’s economy is slowing down. In the south, Afghanistan remains highly unstable, while in the west, the Middle East is rife with civil wars and growing rivalries. Central Asia is reeling from the impact of surrounding crises: the region’s exposure to Russia and China, as well a heavy reliance on commodity exports, have caused currencies to plunge, remittances to drop and Central Asian migrants to return home from abroad, jobless.

Kazakhstan, a major energy exporter with strong economic ties to both China and Russia, is thus facing a perfect storm. Low oil prices have led to government budget cuts, while exports fell 42.4 percent in 2015 compared to the previous year, according to the National Bank of Kazakhstan. The International Monetary Fund’s latest projections indicate that the country’s economy will grow by merely 0.1 percent in 2016. And yet, despite deteriorating economic conditions over the past months, there were very few instances of significant public unrest in Kazakhstan.

On April 24, however, a protest took place in the western city of Atyrau, and demonstrations quickly spread over the following days to several other cities, including Kyzylorda and Zhanaozen in the south, Aktau in the west, Aktobe in the north and Semey in the east. The protesters’ grievances center on an amendment to Kazakhstan’s Land Code, which, when it comes into effect in July, will allow the state to sell land to joint ventures that will be allowed to rent out the land to foreigners for up to 25 years, a change from the current period of 10 years. Protesters have reportedly been employing anti-Chinese slogans and expressing concerns that the new law will allow China to take control of Kazakh agricultural lands.

On the surface, these protests may appear minor: estimates for the total number of protesters range from hundreds to merely a few thousand. Nevertheless, there are several indicators that we should take these protests seriously. First, the geographic spread of the protests shows that there is relatively widespread discontent and that individuals across the country are watching developments in other areas. Second, the protesters’ grievances mix economic and nationalist concerns, thus potentially boosting their ability to appeal to a wider public.

Most important, Kazakhstan’s regime appears to feel threatened by these protests. Some protesters have been arrested, while there are reports of protesters clashing with riot police and some local authorities warning individuals not to demonstrate. Significantly, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev publicly warned that protest organizers will be punished. In a speech on May 1, he said Ukraine was an example of a country where “there is no unity” and as a result “no tasks are solved.” The regime is thus attempting to crack down on protesters while appealing to the public to opt for stability, but the leadership’s fierce public reaction to the demonstrations shows insecurity and fear of unrest.

In our net assessment of Central Asia, we wrote that as Eurasia’s interconnected crises intensify, we will be watching for indicators of growing public unrest and regime weaknesses. Kazakhstan’s leadership may fear protests, but these demonstrations are unlikely to destabilize the regime. They are, in a way, reminiscent of the December 1986 protests: today’s demonstrations may not bring about change on their own, but they signal that large systemic shifts are underway in the region. Central Asia is surrounded by crises, and Kazakhstan’s protests indicate that the region is unraveling as well.
 

Housecarl

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http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/05/02/the-arab-implosion-continues/

Crisis in the Middle East

The Arab Implosion Continues


A political crisis at one end of the Arab world and a humanitarian disaster at the other this weekend highlighted one of the most important stories of our time. First, as the Wall Street Journal reports:

Protesters loyal to cleric Moqtada al-Sadr stormed Baghdad’s government seat, occupied the Iraqi parliament and even attacked a senior lawmaker. They withdrew Sunday, but a committee of Sadr supporters organizing the protests said demonstrators would return after an Islamic religious holiday which ends Tuesday, according to Iraqi state television.

[..] Iraqi officials were forced to call back troops from the front lines in Anbar Province in April to protect the capital amid protesters’ threats, as U.S.-backed Iraqi forces are preparing for a campaign to recapture Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul.

Iran-backed militia groups aligned with Iraq’s government announced late Sunday night that they are deploying fighters in Baghdad to help secure the city.

Meanwhile, at the other end of the Arab world, off Libya:

More than 80 migrants are feared to have drowned in a shipwreck late last week close to the Libyan coast, an aid agency said, less than two weeks after hundreds of migrants are believed to have died on the perilous Libya-to-Italy route.

“According to the testimonies gathered by the International Organization for Migration in Lampedusa 84 people went missing,” IOM spokesman Flavio di Giacomo wrote in a tweet.

These are just two of many stories pointing to one of the major, ongoing narratives shaping our world: the implosion of the Arab republics and the comprehensive failure of postcolonial political development in the “modernizing” Arab states. The traditionalist monarchies clearly are doing better than the republics, and though that is partly due to the oil revenues than keep so many of them afloat, it is also due to the superior ability of monarchies to balance traditional power centers.

There are many consequences of the long decline and fall of the modernizing Arab republics: a power vacuum that leaves Arab world open to intervention, most recently by Russia and Iran; cultural and social crisis that made fanatical jihadi movements possible; economic crisis and vast migration; the accelerating collapse of order and security; and most recently, the inability of governments to control much of their territory and the rise of quasi-independent separatist militias as the foundering postcolonial states continue to weaken.

The U.S. has tried its hand at nation-building repeatedly, in ways ranging from armed intervention to the provision of technical assistance and encouragement to no-questions-asked aid. We have met with no real success, and we have no real idea what to try next. The religious nutcases claim to have an ideology that will fix things, but there is little sign that they will be more successful than their predecessors. So it looks as if for the foreseeable future, the rest of the world is going to have to deal with the consequences of Arab failure without being able to do much about the underlying conditions.

Among the likely consequences of this reality: growing support within and beyond the region for regimes that, however ugly they may be from a human rights point of view, can guarantee at least a measure of order. There will be less attention being paid to the Palestinian issue as larger and more immediate problems capture the world’s attention. (Look for the Israeli argument that the Palestinians do not have, and cannot soon build, a functioning state structure capable of either making peace or of keeping radicals from attacking Israel after peace is signed will likely gain force within and beyond Israel.) There will be more pressure inside Israel to expand settlements given the weakness of the Arab world. There will be greater competition for influence between Gulf monarchies, Iran, Russia and others seeking to fill the vacuum. And there will be greater internal stresses in EU as the frontline EU states with long Mediterranean coasts and exposure to the migration surge face growing problems.

What we are seeing is not so much a clash between civilizations as a crisis of Arab civilization: the failure of the Arab world to master modernity—to find a way to be economically and politically successful under modern conditions without losing the core cultural and social values. This is comparable to what happened in China in the 19th century, when China failed to find a way to adapt Western methods and ideas to Chinese conditions—which led to decades of state failure, weakness, and immense suffering for the Chinese people.

Posted: Yesterday at 8:56 AM | Author: WRM
 

Housecarl

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http://www.nationalreview.com/article/434835/shinzo-abe-courts-europe-russia

Shinzo Abe’s Diplomatic Balancing Act

by Michael Auslin May 3, 2016 4:00 AM @michaelauslin

Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe is in Europe this week, holding discussions with European leaders in advance of the G7 summit, which Japan is hosting at the end of this month. Tightening Japan’s ties with Western states has long been a key part of Abe’s foreign policy. By visiting Italy, France, Belgium, Germany, and the U.K., he hopes to broaden the scope of Tokyo’s partnerships and make Japan the Asian political and security partner of choice for European nations.

The last time Japan had as full an agenda with the G7 was during the Cold War. Then, Tokyo played a vital role in holding the line against Soviet expansion in Asia, partnering with the United States on maritime and aerial security and providing a base for crucial surveillance operations. Now, Abe is attempting to secure a role for Japan as the key Asian state in the fight to maintain global order. The strengths he brings to the table, including a coherent vision, are matched by the limitations of Japan’s position.

The business of setting the G7 agenda is at the top of Abe’s to-do list in Europe. Abe will be discussing the state of the world economy in the light of China’s slowdown, global counterterrorism strategy, and Asian issues with his European counterparts. His goal for the G7 has been to focus on regional stability, which is all the more pressing in light of the tense, ongoing territorial conflicts in Asia’s seas. Here, he has found some traction with his European partners, particularly the British, who have begun expressing their concern over Chinese coercion in the South China Sea. That may not seem like much, but Abe appears to be patiently building a coalition to rhetorically and materially support enforcement of the global rules-based order. With a decision looming in The Hague on the Philippines’ arbitration case against China’s claims in the South China Sea, Abe’s efforts have already drawn warnings from Beijing.

Not all of Abe’s energy will be spent on the G7. While in Brussels, he will discuss ongoing negotiations over a Japan-EU economic-partnership agreement. As he prepares to ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) this fall, Abe is moving ahead on a European pact partly to give Japan an economic hedge against the Chinese, who are close to completing their own investment agreement with the EU.

Bilateral security issues will also be high on the agenda. Since he took office in late 2012, Abe has increased 2+2 meetings with top diplomatic and defense officials from the UK and France. On this trip, he is likely to push for further cooperation on defense equipment, including joint production and sales. Abe’s decision to eliminate Japan’s restrictions on arms exports in 2014 has allowed Tokyo to slowly begin using defense agreements as a means of forging tighter political relations. To that end, he plans to raise the possibility of signing acquisition and cross-servicing agreements (ACSAs) with London and Paris, which would allow the exchange of logistics support, supplies, and services. This would complement existing Japanese ACSAs with the United States and Australia, making future security cooperation easier.

Japan’s defense cooperation with the European Union will likely also be a focus of Abe’s talks. Tokyo has attempted to become the top Asian partner for the EU, in part by facilitating the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy mission. In the Gulf of Aden, for example, Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force has already held five joint exercises with the EU’s Naval Force Atalanta on counter-piracy measures. The passage last year of reforms that allow Japan’s Self-Defense Forces to participate in collective self-defense activities gives Abe an opening to discuss further security cooperation with the EU.

The most controversial stop on Abe’s trip will be the last: Moscow, where he’s scheduled to meet with Vladimir Putin. After ignoring Barack Obama’s request not to meet the Russian leader, Abe will head to the Kremlin with a focus on resolving the seven decades-old Kurile Islands dispute. He hopes to secure the return of the four small islands, which sit just off the northern tip of Hokkaido and were captured by the Red Army in the closing days of World War II.

The decades-long attempt to entice the Russians into surrendering the islands, the significance of is both strategic and economic (mainly fisheries), has led the Japanese into a twilight relationship with Moscow, with successive Japanese leaders offering Russia ever-more economic aid to no avail. With Putin having announced an increase in defense spending on the Kuriles and Russia building a new base on one of the islands, it seems unlikely that Abe stands much of a chance to succeed where his predecessors failed.

In going to Moscow, Abe risks angering the European partners he will have just seen. Their focus, not surprisingly, remains on Russian aggression in Ukraine and intervention in Syria. But Japan has always had a different geopolitical calculus when it comes to Russia. Maintaining the balance of power in Asia often means engaging with Moscow. And China’s rise combined with the emergence of North Korea as a nuclear power makes such engagement even more important for Tokyo. Russia’s capacity to influence Asian relations may be reduced, but it continues as a crucial supplier of oil and natural gas, and retains a potential ability to control strategic Arctic passageways. Given the Chinese and North Korean challenge, Japan will consider its own regional interests above the global community’s, condemning Russian actions in Ukraine even as it attempts to keep bilateral relations open.

The complexity of Japan’s relationship with Russia limits how close it can get to Europe, at a time when the latter relationship could be critical. Neither Japan nor Europe is directly involved in the other’s major security issues. Japan has played no role in the Ukrainian and Syrian conflicts, while Europe has stayed out of the Senkaku Islands dispute. There are no Japanese forces fighting the Islamic State or Royal Navy ships patrolling in the East China Sea. No European nation will help with a war on the Korean peninsula. A community of interests is a laudable goal, but will likely do little to change either Chinese, North Korea, or Russian policies.

Yet under Shinzo Abe, Japan is again bidding to become a central player on the world stage. It remains an attractive partner for technology cooperation, and the potential for defense-industrial ties could help the economies of both Japan and Europe. By staking his foreign policy on the maintenance of global order, Abe has created the biggest opportunity for Japanese engagement with Europe since Yasuhiro Nakasone was prime minister in the 1980s. The next U.S. president should welcome closer cooperation and partnership among European and Asian democracies, and figure out how to get America engaged in the process. Tensions over ties with Russia, which Tokyo is unlikely to cut, are all the more reason to take advantage of the outstretched hand that a more activist Japanese premier is offering.

— Michael Auslin is a frequent contributor to National Review, and the author of The End of the Asian Century.
 

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missile-un-idUSKCN0XU2BL

World | Tue May 3, 2016 5:53pm EDT
Related: World

Russia delays U.N. council condemnation of North Korea missile tests

UNITED NATIONS | By Michelle Nichols

A United Nations Security Council condemnation of North Korea's latest missile tests has been delayed by Russian amendments to a statement that had been agreed by the remaining 14 members, including Pyongyang's ally China, diplomats said on Tuesday.

North Korea test-fired what appeared to be two intermediate-range ballistic missiles on Thursday, but both failed. China's U.N. Ambassador Liu Jieyi, president of the U.N. Security Council last month, said the body was working on a response.

"The Security Council needs to respond swiftly; so we don't understand why Russia is blocking while all other council members, including China, which borders DPRK (North Korea), can agree," Britain's Deputy U.N. Ambassador Peter Wilson said.

Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said on Monday that Moscow had added "some very valuable input" to the draft council statement that the United States was considering "unhappily."

"We need to call a spade a spade and we think that asking for the interested parties to scale down their military activity in the region is very important," Churkin said, referring to moves by the United States and South Korea.

Russia and China on Friday called on the United States not to install a new anti-missile system in South Korea, after Washington said it was in talks with Seoul following North Korea's nuclear arms and missile tests.

The North routinely threatens to destroy South Korea and the United States.

Last week's missile tests are the latest in a string of demonstrations of military might that began in January with North Korea's fourth nuclear test and included the launch of a long-range rocket in February.

"North Korea is clearly lashing out in dangerous and provocative ways and every member of the Security Council ... is concerned about this except evidently Russia," said a council diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"Incredibly Russia proposed amendments that were not aimed at the DPRK (North Korea) but rather at countries seeking to protect themselves from this threat," said the diplomat.

North Korea's tests have increased tension on the Korean peninsula. North and South Korea remain technically at war after their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, rather than a treaty.

In March, the U.N. Security Council imposed harsh new sanctions on North Korea to starve it of money for its nuclear weapons program.


(Reporting by Michelle Nichols; Editing by James Dalgleish)
 

Housecarl

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/beijing-tightens-control-across-china-143644554.html?nhp=1

Beijing Tightens Its Control Across China

Michael Schuman
May 3, 2016

BEIJING -- The June 4 th Museum in Hong Kong was opened to remember an event that China's Communist Party would prefer its citizens forget -- the tragic massacre of pro-democracy protesters at Beijing's Tiananmen Square in 1989. Tucked into a bustling district of the territory, the memorial shows documentaries and houses a replica of the Goddess of Democracy statue built by the Tiananmen activists.

Within China, such a display could never exist. The Communists scrupulously block internet sites or any other source of information on the massacres from the eyes of the Chinese public. But in Hong Kong, a part of China but governed by its own, more liberal laws, the memory of those who died on the square has been kept alive, through annual marches on the tragedy's June 4 anniversary, the museum and other projects.

Yet these days even Hong Kong is not immune from the widening crackdown on dissent unleashed by Chinese President Xi Jinping. The Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China, a pro-democracy organization formed in 1989 that opened the museum, recently announced that it will have to close the facility. One of the building's property owners, alleging that the museum violates regulations, has pressed for legal action to force it to shutter, and the Alliance can't sustain the costs of a protracted defense.

But Albert Ho, the Alliance's chairman and a Hong Kong lawmaker, sees the fate of the museum as part of a bigger struggle -- to defend Hong Kong's civil liberties against Beijing's encroachment. "The Hong Kong government wants to preserve its image that it is still an open government, but there is mounting pressure from all sides," Ho contends. Though he has no direct evidence that the campaign against the June 4th Museum is politically motivated, he has his suspicions. Guards at the building where the museum is located have been scaring off Chinese tourists by demanding to know their identities, he claims.

The troubled museum testifies to the stultifying atmosphere Xi has created. Under his watch, the Communist Party is smothering dissent, criticism and civic action to a degree unseen in more than two decades -- with tremendous implications for China's political and economic future. Xi "is a control freak," says Willy Lam, a specialist on China's politics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. His policies "have been significantly more draconian" than those of China's previous two presidents.

That's not what many China watchers had expected when Xi started claiming the reins of power in late 2012. In sharp contrast to his often robotic predecessor, Hu Jintao, Xi's folksy flair gave off an air of a fresh, modern approach to governing. Having served for much of his career in two of China's most progressive, outward-looking provinces, Xi was widely expected to be an ardent reformer. That reputation was bolstered in late 2013 when a Communist Party plenum unveiled a far-reaching blueprint of pro-market policies that would overhaul the entire Chinese economy.

Instead, Xi has proven surprisingly retrograde. Though China's Communists have never shown much tolerance for opinions or actions that deviated from the party line, Xi appears determined to suppress what little freedom of expression or civil society remains. The government has intensified controls on the internet and social media, clamped down on academic discourse at universities and increased pressure on non-government organizations -- in late April the government passed tougher laws regulating foreign NGOs. After touring China's major state news organizations in February, Xi warned, in the words of one of their reports, that media "must work to speak for the Party's will and its propositions and protect the Party's authority and unity."

[READ: China one of many countries cracking down on journalists' freedom]

Civil-rights advocates have been routinely swept up by police. In January, Peter Dahlin, a Swedish activist who offered legal aid to Chinese citizens, was detained and paraded on Chinese state television confessing that he "caused harm to the Chinese government," before being deported. Anyone undertaking any civic action, no matter how seemingly innocuous, has become a target of state security. Last year, a group of young women, who became known as the Feminist Five, were detained after doing no more than organizing a public awareness campaign against sexual harassment.

[READ: Learn about the delicate dance of practicing journalism in China]

The crackdown has extended beyond China's borders. Late last year, Gui Minhai, a Swedish citizen who publishes tracts critical of the Communists, was apparently abducted from Thailand and hauled into China. He, too, confessed on national television, saying he voluntarily returned to China to face justice for a previous crime.

Meanwhile, Xi has been centralizing power in his own hands more than any Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, the founder of the Communist regime. Shunting aside the "government by committee" formula employed by his predecessors, Xi has sidelined other senior cadres and taken direct control over most aspects of policymaking. An anti-corruption campaign has ensnared hundreds of thousands of officials, conveniently including some of Xi's powerful party rivals, most notably former security chief Zhou Yongkang. State media is crafting a personality cult around Xi, with a daily barrage of headlines praising his decisions and detailing his every move.

[READ: People view China as one of the world's most powerful countries]

On the surface, Xi's crackdown seems unjustified and his tactics petty. He is one of the world's most powerful people, and there appear to be no serious threats to his rule or the Communist Party regime.

Yet political analysts say Xi sees the situation differently. Lam, the Hong Kong professor, believes that Xi considers greater party control over Chinese society as critical for the future of Communist rule. Xi, he argues, is haunted by the collapse of the Soviet Union, which the Chinese leader attributes to the way Moscow's Communists lost its grip over the economy and public. To ensure that doesn't repeat itself in China, Xi is intent on maintaining total party dominance over all aspects of Chinese life. "He has been much more orthodox about ideological control, and he is paranoid about civil society," Lam says.

Xi also believes the Communist Party itself needs a serious shake-up. According to some political analysts, Xi frets that he inherited a party organization that had become too corrupt and dissolute, and in order to maintain power, it required a purge of graft and deviant ideas. As a result, Xi has imposed strict party discipline, especially over its ideological line. In early April, Xi instructed members of the Communist Party to undertake a major study campaign, focused in part on his own speeches. Its goal, according to the official news agency Xinhua, is "to consolidate Party members' Marxist positions and ensure that the entire Party maintains a high degree of ideological and political consistency."

Others speculate that Xi may not feel as secure as he appears. In the rough-and-tumble world of Communist politics, Xi has powerful rivals, and his policies may have won him even more. Richard McGregor, author of the book, "The Party: The Secret World of China's Communist Rulers," says Xi has reason to be nervous, "because of the forces arraigned against him before coming to office and the enemies he has made since through the anti-graft campaign."

Xi also is presiding over a period of unusual uncertainty in China, most of all with its sagging economy. Saddled with a mountain of debt and excess capacity in many industries, the economy is heading into an era of significantly reduced growth. That presents a challenge the Communists haven't faced since the 1970s. One of the main pillars of public support for the regime has been its ability to deliver rising incomes and good jobs, so the slowdown could undercut the party's legitimacy. Even more, the expected downsizing of Chinese industry could lead to widespread unemployment and even social unrest -- a prospect that Xi and his cadres find especially unnerving.

The big question is what Xi will do with his enhanced power. There is some hope that Xi will press forward more aggressively with economic reform -- which has badly stalled -- once he solidifies his rule. Others speculate Xi may want to become the new Mao, with authority entirely in his own hands. Either way, there will always be some brave souls willing to resist him. In Hong Kong, the organizers of the Tiananmen museum are committed to reopening it in a new location. "The atmosphere is getting tense," says Hong Kong's Albert Ho, "but you can hear the voices of many local groups that are still very deviant."

Michael Schuman is a Beijing-based journalist who has been covering Asia for 20 years. You can follow him on Twitter here.

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Housecarl

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/singapor...is-suspected-group-links-102310947.html?nhp=1

Singapore detains 8 Bangladeshis suspected of IS group links

ANNABELLE LIANG
May 3, 2016

SINGAPORE (AP) — Singapore has detained eight Bangladeshi workers on suspicion of planning attacks linked to the Islamic State group in their home country, authorities said Tuesday

The Ministry of Home Affairs said the eight construction and marine workers were detained last month for allegedly being members of the group Islamic State in Bangladesh and are currently under investigation.

It said they were arrested under the city-state's Internal Security Act, which allows for detention without trial in cases where public safety is threatened.

The ministry said the suspects had intended to join the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria as foreign fighters but discovered that it would be difficult to make their way there. The group then focused on returning to Bangladesh, where at least two more members are believed to be based, it said.

They made plans to "overthrow the democratically elected government through the use of force, establish an Islamic State in Bangladesh and bring it under ISIS' self-declared caliphate," it added, using another acronym for the Islamic State group.

"The group had also raised monies to purchase firearms to carry out their planned terror attacks in Bangladesh. The money has since been seized," it said.

The ministry said an investigation revealed documents containing possible targets in Bangladesh and a list of government and military officials. It said the group's suspected leader, Rahman Mizanur, possessed guides on making weapons and bombs and also radical material from the Islamic State group and al-Qaida that he used to recruit the others.

"Rahman Mizanur has said he would carry out an attack anywhere if he was instructed by ISIS to do so, though there are no specific indications that Singapore had as yet been selected as a target. Several of those detained may be liable for prosecution for terrorism financing," the ministry said in a statement.

Five Bangladeshi workers were investigated under the Internal Security Act for alleged links to the Singapore-recruited group and were subsequently deported for supporting the use of violence for a religious cause and possession of jihadi-related materials, the ministry said.

Police in Bangladesh said they arrested the five workers on Tuesday and were questioning them.

"We are going to interrogate them extensively to verify the charges brought by the Singapore authorities," said Monirul Islam, head of the police Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime Unit.

In January, Singapore said it had arrested and deported 26 Bangladeshi construction workers for forming a religious study group that spread the ideology of al-Qaida and the Islamic State group.
 

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https://www.yahoo.com/news/senegal-...-forces-permament-access-192933110.html?nhp=1

Senegal signs accord giving US forces permament access to the country

May 2, 2016

Dakar (AFP) - Senegal and the United States on Monday signed a defence accord allowing "the permanent presence" of American soldiers in the west African country, especially to help fight against the terrorist threat.

A key point of the accord will give US troops access to areas in Senegal, such as airports and military installations, in order to respond to security or health needs, according to officials, who did not talk about US bases in the country.

The accord allows for "the permanent presence of American soldiers in Senegal" and aims to "face up to the common difficulties in security" in the region, said Senegalese Foreign Minister Mankeur Ndiaye at the signing alongside the US ambassador to Dakar, James Zumwalt.

After Ebola, which caused more than 11,000 deaths since late 2013 in West Africa, the US diplomat noted that the next crisis could be another epidemic, or a natural disaster calling for a humanitarian response "or a terrorist threat".

The accord sets out the rules for cooperation between the US and Senegalese forces and the conditions for access and for using installations while US soldiers are in Senegal, Zumwalt added.

It also allows for training to enable US and Senegalese forces "to be better prepared to respond together to the risks which threaten our common interests," he said.

Senegal has up to now been spared the deadly jihadist attacks that have hit neighbouring countries, killing 30 people in Burkina Faso's capital in January and causing 19 deaths at an Ivory Coast beach resort in March.

Dakar has beefed up security in many public places including hotels and administration buildings.

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Possible Impact

TB Fanatic
'Kill! Kill! Kill!' – Chinese Army
Releases First Hip-Hop Recruitment Video


00:38 04.05.2016(updated 00:41 04.05.2016)
http://sputniknews.com/asia/20160504/1039025167/chinese-pla-recruitment-video.html

In an effort to increase its recruitment levels of Chinese youth, the People’s
Liberation Army has released a new ad using hip-hop-style music and visuals
that could rival a trailer for the latest Michael Bay movie.

"There are always missions in soldiers’ minds, enemies in their eyes,
responsibilities on their shoulders, and passions in their hearts,"
the video’s voiceover says, opening on an image of young PLA soldier
in uniform.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTdOnDSPZ_Q


"There could be a war at any time. Are you ready for that?"

The ad is part of a push to project China People’s Liberation Army,
the largest fighting force in the world, as a modern military.

"The PLA is no longer the poorly equipped one that they saw from
TV dramas, but a powerful force, as modernized as the United States
military," a publicity expert identified only as Jiao told the state-run
China Daily.

To that effect, the video highlights the army’s most advanced weaponry,
including J-11 fighter jets, Type-99A tanks, DF-11 ballistic missiles,
and the country's first aircraft carrier.

These images are juxtaposed with a song in the style of hip-hop,
titled "Battle Declaration."

"Roar with animal spirit, from the center to the border.
Let’s go to war, let’s fight to win!" the lyrics read, along with
additional provocative declarations including the oft-repeated
phrase: "Kill! Kill! Kill!"



The lyrics "hide neither combativeness nor a desire to fight,"
the China Daily reports.


This is the first time that the Chinese military has used the hip-hop
musical template in its recruitment efforts. Previous ads used music
with traditional orchestral accompaniment.

China Daily reports that the lyrical content of previous patriotic songs
were tailored to avoid sounding too aggressive.


Already comprising of roughly 2.3 million individuals, the PLA, if this
African-American-influenced promotion is successful, is about to become
even bigger.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.ibtimes.com/amid-russian...ldup-eastern-european-border-urged-us-2363304

Amid Russian Nuclear Tensions, NATO Military Buildup On Eastern European Border Urged By US Defense Chief

By Jess McHugh @McHughJess On 05/03/16 AT 11:29 AM

The NATO military alliance may increase its presence on the eastern borders of Europe in response to perceived aggression from Russia, U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said Tuesday. Carter's remarks come as tensions have risen between NATO and Russia over the annexation of Crimea as well as Moscow's nuclear ambitions and military buildup along the eastern borders of Europe.

"Moscow's nuclear saber rattling raises troubling questions about Russia's leaders' commitment to strategic stability, their respect for norms against the use of nuclear weapons and whether they respect the profound caution that nuclear-age leaders showed with regard to brandishing nuclear weapons," Carter said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and other military authorities have repeatedly made veiled statements concerning the country’s willingness to use nuclear weapons, while building up Moscow’s arsenal. “Measures for countering the aggressor could include those that concern Russia’s strategic nuclear capability — that is, reciprocal measures so that, God forbid, no one gets a crazy idea in their head,” Dmitry Rogozin, the deputy prime minister in charge the defense industry, said in October 2015 after the U.S. revealed it was developing new weapons systems, Reuters reported.

Moscow has continued to send military personnel and equipment off the coast of Nordic countries like Finland while completing a military base in the nearby Arctic Circle and building up a military presence near the eastern Baltic states. The Russian military frequently conducts air drills off the coast of Northern European nations, and Carter said these maneuvers are an attempt to intimidate those countries.

Tensions have remained high between the U.S. and Russia since Moscow annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014 in an act U.S. authorities said violated international law. As a member of NATO, the U.S. has been active in advocating to protect the eastern borders of such countries, including potentially sending a third U.S. army combat brigade as well as 4,000 additional NATO troops to the Baltic states in the coming year.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
The threat from CHINA: Xi warns Obama against threatening China’s sovereignty
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...against-threatening-China’s-sovereignty/page4

SCMP: US aircraft carrier denied entry to Hong Kong, American consulate official says
Started by Possible Impactý, 04-29-2016 07:43 AM
http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/show...to-Hong-Kong-American-consulate-official-says


For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/it-time-us-aircraft-carriers-visit-taiwan-16016

The Buzz

Is It Time for U.S. Aircraft Carriers to Visit Taiwan?

Rep. Randy Forbes seems to suggest as much.

Dave Majumdar
May 2, 2016
Comments 250

A senior U.S. Congressman is calling for the Pentagon to allow U.S. Navy aircraft carriers to visit Taiwan after China denied USS John C. Stennis (CVN-74) permission to make a port call in Hong Kong.

The People’s Republic of China denied permission [4] for the carrier to make its long-scheduled visit to the former British colony following the vessel’s operations in the South China Sea—which Beijing claims as its own.

“As Beijing's direct control of Hong Kong intensifies, the U.S. Navy should strongly consider shifting its carrier port calls to more stable and welcoming locations,” said Rep. Randy Forbes (R-VA), chairman of the House Armed Services Seapower and Projection Forces subcommittee in a May 2 statement [5]. “While China finds profit in needlessly harming our sailors' families, many U.S. allies and partners in the region, including Taiwan, would no doubt welcome our carriers and their crews with open arms. The time has come to consider these alternate locations going forward.”

The U.S. Navy routinely visits Hong Kong—and as such—Beijing’s denial of permission is likely a signal of China’s discontent with the U.S. Navy enforcing Washington’s right to freely navigate in the region. Beijing has previously denied visitations during times of heightened tensions. In 2007, China denied permission for USS Kitty Hawk (CV-63) to visit the port city following a dispute over arms sales to Taiwan.

“China has repeatedly politicized the long-standing use of Hong Kong for carrier port visits, inconveniencing the families of thousands of U.S. sailors and continuing a pattern of unnecessary and disruptive behavior,” Forbes said.

The Pentagon, for its part, has said that it wants to reduce tensions in the region—especially as China continues to make new claims in the area. Indeed, there are new fears that China will begin land reclamation activities in the Scarborough Shoal, [6] which is also claimed by the Philippines.

“We want to reduce tensions, but we also want everybody in the region to be able to rise and develop in their own way,” U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter told reporters onboard Stennis on April 15. [7] “The only reason that question even comes up is because of what has gone on over the last year, and that's a question of Chinese behavior. So, what's new is not an American carrier in this region. What's new is the context of tension which exists, which we want to reduce.”

Carter reiterated that the United States’ is not supporting any one nation’s claims in the region. “In international affairs, disputes should be resolved peacefully, and not by changing the status quo unilaterally. And we're against that by any of the claimants,” Carter said. “And a number of the claimants have done that, and we've opposed that. By far and away over the last year, the most has been done by China.”

Dave Majumdar is the defense editor for The National Interest. You can follow him on Twitter: @davemajumdar.

Tags
China [8]Taiwan [9]US Navy [10]defense [11]aircraft carriers [12]Scarborough Shoal [13]
Topics
Security [14] [3]
Links:
[1] http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/it-time-us-aircraft-carriers-visit-taiwan-16016
[2] http://nationalinterest.org/profile/dave-majumdar
[3] http://twitter.com/share
[4] http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/29/politics/us-aircraft-carrier-denied-entry-into-hong-kong-port/
[5] http://forbes.house.gov/updates/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=399160
[6] http://warontherocks.com/2016/05/successful-signaling-at-scarborough-shoal/
[7] http://www.defense.gov/News/News-Tr...edia-availability-aboard-uss-john-c-stennis-i
[8] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/china
[9] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/taiwan
[10] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/us-navy
[11] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/defense
[12] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/aircraft-carriers
[13] http://nationalinterest.org/tag/scarborough-shoal
[14] http://nationalinterest.org/topic/security
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
:dot5:

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...mounting-regional-threats?cmpid=yhoo.headline

NATO Upgrades Ties With Israel Amid Mounting Regional Threats

by David Wainer
May 4, 2016 — 1:04 AM PDT

NATO has upgraded its ties with Israel, tightening its cooperation with the Jewish state amid mounting instability in the Middle East.

Israel will now be able to open offices at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s headquarters in Brussels and complete a credentialing process for its representatives, Foreign Ministry spokesman Emmanuel Nahshon said. The step is “important” and will help boost Israeli security, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

“This is additional testimony to the status of Israel and the desire of many to cooperate with us in the security domain,” he said.

The NATO upgrade may help Netanyahu deflect criticism that his nation is being isolated by international allies due to lack of progress in peacemaking with the Palestinians.

While Israel is not a member of the 28-country alliance, it has participated in its Mediterranean Dialogue program since its establishment in 1994. It signed a security agreement with the alliance in 2001, is an associate member of the NATO parliamentary assembly and has taken part in joint military exercises with the organization.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/may/2/jed-babbin-shrinking-us-military-budgets-threaten-/

Neutering U.S. combat air forces

Shrunken budgets and bad planning threaten national security

By Jed Babbin - - Monday, May 2, 2016
Comments 11

ANALYSIS/OPINION:

Willfully ignoring the effects of 15 years of combat, President Obama, Congress and Pentagon leaders are causing the readiness of our combat aircraft to sink to so low a level that it clearly endangers national security. It’s a matter of shrunken budgets and awful planning.

Readiness — the ability of a force to accomplish its assigned combat mission — is measured somewhat differently among the services. But when it comes to aircraft the criteria are immutable. They’re objective measures that are based on metallurgical science and the laws of physics.

Our military went into combat a month after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks when we attacked al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. In the nearly 15 years since, our air forces have flown almost constantly, attacking the terrorist forces in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. The burden on them has worn out too many aircraft to the degree that they can no longer be flown in combat.

As reported by Fox News, only a small minority of Marine Corps aircraft — about 30 percent of the Marines’ F/A-18s — are ready to fly and only 42 of their 147 heavy-lift CH-53E helicopters are airworthy. They — like the F/A-18s — are just plain worn out.

Retired U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Mike Groothousen flew A-7 attack aircraft and F-18 strike fighters. He was captain (in combat) of the nuclear carrier USS Harry S. Truman and had four other aviation and surface commands in his career.

Adm. Groothousen told me, “In 15 years of war we’ve consumed the useful lives of many aircraft much faster than planned or budgeted for. Depending on aircraft type, that overutilization ranges from 150 percent to 300 percent beyond normal training and deployment. That’s due, in part, to additional hours flown to, from and over the target area by fewer available aircraft and increased structural fatigue caused by constantly carrying combat fuel and ordnance loads versus that of a regular day-to-day pilot training.”

As Adm. Groothousen points out, a pilot puts a lot more stress on an aircraft’s structure making a 5 g-force combat turn in an aircraft loaded with thousands of pounds of fuel and ordinance than he would flying an unarmed training mission. (Landing an aircraft with bomb and missile racks still loaded places more stress on the airframe than almost anything else. About 75 percent of our attacks against the Islamic State return with unexpended ordinance.)

When the life of a combat aircraft is used up (6,000 to 9,000 flight hours for an F-18) it has to be replaced. Before that point (at the 6,000-hour level for an F-18), it has to undergo an extensive overhaul that costs millions of dollars and can take months to perform. Part of the problem is that the necessity for these overhauls is multiplying far more rapidly than the Navy has budgeted or planned for them.

The Navy and the Air Force would both be far better off if they bought replacement F-18s, but their choices are limited because the F-35 is strangling their budgets.

Let’s focus on the Navy’s problems because they are the same as the other services’ and because we have the most comprehensive data on them — a set of PowerPoint charts used by Vice Adm. Mike Shoemaker, the Navy’s “air boss,” to brief various audiences on the state of naval aviation.

PowerPoint is one of the greatest obstacles to communication, so it takes some digging to get to useful data. One chart, labeled “Future Force Readiness,” shows that in 2016 six, out of the Navy’s 37 squadrons of F-18s have insufficient aircraft to be combat-ready. In 2020, the unready fighter squadrons will number nine out of the same 37, and that presumes that two squadrons of F-35s are declared ready for combat.

The consistently troubled F-35 is already about seven years late. Its schedule may slip more years because its enormously complex software system is still causing problems that can’t be ignored, such as switching off the radar at random moments. As Adm. Shoemaker’s briefing shows, if the F-35 schedule slips another two years, the number of unready F-18 squadrons in 2020 would be 11: nine F-18 squadrons and two F-35 squadrons.

That means in 2020, nearly one-third of the Navy’s fighter squadrons could be unready for combat.

Retired U.S. Navy Capt. Chuck Nash is a veteran naval aviator who flew A-7 attack aircraft and F-18s. Capt. Nash told me, “The Navy’s carrier fleet is expected to perform a lot of missions around the world at any time. Right now, the Navy doesn’t have the aircraft, the people or the budget to do what’s expected of it. We are wearing out the platforms and also taking a tremendous toll on our sailors. Something’s got to give.”

To deal with these shortfalls in capability, the Navy has implemented what it calls “tiered readiness.” It is reducing deployment times to seven months, creating a gap in coverage in critical regions of the world. The Navy has 10 carriers and will soon have 11 when the USS Gerald Ford is delivered. But, according to these two experts, there are only enough aircraft, logistics and support equipment to fully equip six at a time. If the F-35 is further delayed, the effect on Navy (and Air Force) readiness may be catastrophic.

While this goes on, in a coincidence of history, April 23 was the one-thousandth anniversary of the death of a king of England named Ethelred the Unready. His passing wasn’t mourned, and his shameful nickname was earned by his failure to prepare and defend his nation against a Viking invasion.

The president, Congress and the Pentagon’s leaders are making decisions that would do old Ethelred proud.

• Jed Babbin served as a deputy undersecretary of defense in the George H.W. Bush administration. He is a senior fellow of the London Center for Policy Research and the author of five books including “In the Words of Our Enemies.”
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
:dvl1::whistle::popcorn1:

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-tells-pakistan-fund-f-16s-itself-122703943--finance.html

U.S. tells Pakistan it will have to fund F-16s itself

Reuters
May 3, 2016

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has told Pakistan it will have to finance the purchase of American F-16 fighter jets itself after members of the U.S. Congress objected to using government funds to pay for them.

The U.S. government said in February it had approved the sale to Pakistan of up to eight F-16 fighter jets built by Lockheed Martin Corp , as well as radar and other equipment in a deal valued at $699 million.

However, Republican Senator Bob Corker said he would use his power as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to bar use of any U.S. funds for the deal to send a message to Pakistan that it needed to do more in the war against militants.

Corker's stance reflected deep unhappiness among both Democrats and Republicans in Congress about what they see as Islamabad’s policy of supporting elements of the Taliban and the Haqqani network blamed for attacks in Afghanistan.

Members of Congress also raised the possibility of the fighter jets being used against Pakistan's neighbor India, with whom it has fought three wars. India objected to the deal.

Pakistan's military says the F-16s it already owns have been integral in fighting the Pakistani Taliban and its allies in the country's tribal areas, particularly due to the aircraft's precision strike and night-flying capability.

U.S. State Department spokesman John Kirby said congressional opposition meant funds from the U.S. government's Foreign Military Financing allocation could not be used to buy the aircraft.

"Given congressional objections, we have told the Pakistanis that they should put forward national funds for that purpose," he told a regular news briefing.

Kirby said he believed that effective engagement with Pakistan, including supporting its counter-terrorism effort, was "critical" to promoting democracy and stability.

Sartaj Aziz, Pakistan's foreign policy chief, told reporters in Islamabad that while the U.S. had barred use of the funds for F-16s, the allocation of roughly $240 million could be used "for other purchases".

"We will examine this with the suppliers to see if there is an alternative source of financing," he said.

"So if any arrangements can be made, we will buy them, otherwise obviously we will have to look for planes from somewhere else."

Lockheed Martin said in March it was using its own funds to pay suppliers and stave off closure of its F-16 fighter jet production line as it waited to finalize orders from Pakistan and other countries.

(Reporting by David Brunnstrom; Additional reporting by Idrees Ali in WASHINGTON and Asad Hashim in ISLAMABAD; Editing by Dan Grebler and Nick Macfie)

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From last week....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-deba...-growing-alliance-between-china-and-pakistan/

The Great Debate

What to read into a growing alliance between China and Pakistan

By Anja Manuel April 27, 2016

Pakistan is awash with a tidal wave of Chinese infrastructure projects.

The small town of Gwadar, for example, was a forgotten end of the earth, filled with dust-colored cinder-block houses that lined trash-strewn streets and ringed by cliffs, desert and the Arabian Sea. Yet this sleepy fishing town has erupted with development over the past few years. A Chinese delegation inaugurated its sparkling new container port in early April, as part of a deal by which China will build and have rights over the port.

China has agreed to spend an extraordinary $46 billion in investment throughout Pakistan, far more than the annual U.S. aid budget for the entire world. This is now Beijing’s biggest commitment to any one country. Pakistan is also the largest recipient of Chinese weapons, and Beijing increasingly relies on it to help contain militants in China’s western provinces.

Pakistan holds a unique position in Chinese diplomatic circles. The Chinese state media describes Pakistan as China’s only “all-weather strategic cooperation partner.” Though it is the largest beneficiary of Beijing’s investment, it is not a client state, as North Korea is. Rather, in a neighborhood where many countries either distrust China, feel beholden to it or both, Pakistan is the closest thing to a real ally and friend that Beijing possesses.

This means that China and Pakistan sometimes cooperate in ways that concern the United States and India. Washington and New Delhi worry that all this largesse will bring Pakistan firmly into China’s orbit. With subtle diplomacy, however, all four countries may be able to create a workable balance.

The Gwadar port is just one example of China’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative. This effort is by far the most spectacular example of Beijing’s strategic policy of combining aid, trade and foreign direct investment to build goodwill, expand its global political sway and secure the natural resources it needs to grow.

Declaring that the Chinese-Pakistani friendship is “sweeter than honey,” and “stronger than steel,” Beijing announced last year that it would finance a 1,800-mile-long superhighway and a high-speed railway from the Arabian Sea over the Himalayas to China’s Xinjiang province. In addition, it would fund an oil pipeline route to the inland Chinese city of Kashgar. This network of infrastructure, including the Gwadar port, would help Pakistan grow, while pushing back against the growing power of regional competitors like India.

Helping Pakistan so dramatically also fits into China’s overall economic strategy. With a deep-sea port in the Arabian Sea and a land route to remote western China, some of Beijing’s Middle Eastern oil could travel the short route through Pakistan, instead of 6,000 miles through the Malacca Straits to Shanghai. That’s the route more than 80 percent of China’s oil and natural resources now have to take.

The infrastructure projects allow China to invest its large, if dwindling, foreign currency reserves, and also buy goodwill with its neighbors. Chinese state-owned companies get additional work, and the many energy projects that are part of the deal offer strong financial returns.

The initiative even has the convenient side effect of annoying India, Pakistan’s archenemy and China’s potential strategic rival.

Chinese engineers have already begun digging tunnels and building bridges to improve safety along the legendary Karakoram highway, one of the highest paved roads on earth, which links Pakistan to China. In addition, China is Pakistan’s largest trading partner and allows Pakistan special trade preferences through a free-trade agreement signed in 2006, though the volume of trade with Pakistan remains a drop in the bucket for Beijing.

As another sign of the growing alliance, Pakistan and China are close partners militarily, and their cooperation has increased in recent years. Pakistan accounts for more than a third of Chinese weapons sales.

In just the past seven months, Pakistan and China have conducted joint military exercises in Pakistan, China and, for the first time, in the East China Sea. China also built six nuclear reactors in Pakistan over the past two decades and expects to help build at least two more. This is raising concerns with the Nuclear Suppliers Group, an institution that supervises the export of global civilian nuclear technology.

In the 1980s and 1990s, China helped develop Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program. Some intelligence suggests that Beijing even helped with Pakistan’s new frightening miniature “battlefield” nuclear weapons, and with its first weaponized drone.

Many in India and the United States are alarmed about what they see as a China-Pakistan axis. They worry that China’s largesse means that Western nations will have little leverage to shape Pakistan’s actions on militants or nuclear weapons, or in supporting peace in Afghanistan. Another concern is that China would protect Pakistan when, for example, it refuses to cooperate with India and the West on handing over dangerous militants Washington should indeed monitor the China-Pakistan relationship closely, but the signs are not all bad.

There is still much the world can do to prevent South Asia from splitting into two hostile China-Pakistan and India-U.S. camps, which is in no one’s interest.

The West should cautiously welcome China’s lavish economic investment in Pakistan because more development helps stabilize the country, a positive result for everyone.

Although China considers Pakistan an ally and a convenient access route to western China, China has broader interests in the region that may cause it to moderate Pakistan’s more worrisome tendencies.

China trades more with India than with Pakistan and shares with it a long, sometimes contested border. So despite sometimes touchy relations, China cannot afford to really antagonize New Delhi.

More broadly, addressing Islamic militancy is a serious goal for Beijing because small groups of Uighur militants have launched violent attacks in China and at times allied with the Pakistani Taliban, Islamic State and others. This alliance means that China is likely prodding Pakistan to do more to crack down on militants there. It could also have a positive effect for Afghanistan, where China has become engaged in pushing for peace talks, and just announced a small security aid package.

The United States, India and others should keep in mind that — weak as it is — Pakistan is one of China’s only real partners. They should engage both Chinese and Pakistani officials on economic development in the region, as well as terrorism and Afghanistan’s future. They should make clear, again and again, that Washington wants good relations with all states in the area. As long as India and the United States have a seat at the table, all four may be able to work out a satisfactory balance.

In this complex dance, there are no simple solutions.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-security-idUSKCN0XV13E

World | Wed May 4, 2016 6:58am EDT
Related: World

China to carry out more military drills in South China Sea

China's military will carry out more military exercises in the South China Sea this month involving advanced warships and submarines, state news agency Xinhua said on Wednesday, terming the drills routine.

China claims almost all of the energy-rich waters of the South China Sea, through which more than $5 trillion of maritime trade passes each year. The Philippines, Brunei, Vietnam, Malaysia and Taiwan have overlapping claims.

Xinhua said the ships, including a new guided missile destroyed, would take part in anti-submarine, anti-missile and other exercises.

It did not say exactly where the drills would take place, but noted they were routine and had been planned for this year.

China periodically announces such exercises in the South China Sea as it tries to demonstrate it is being transparent about its military deployments.

China has been at odds with the United States of late over the strategic waterway.

Washington has criticized Beijing's building of artificial islands in the South China Sea's disputed Spratly archipelago, and has conducted sea and air patrols near them.


(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Robert Birsel)
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://38north.org/2016/05/sinpo050316/

North Korea’s Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile: Continued Progress at the Sinpo South Shipyard

By 38 North
03 May 2016

A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.

Summary

North Korea’s recent successful test launch of another Bukkeukseong-1 (Polaris-1, KN-11) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) has reinforced ongoing concerns regarding the continuing development of the missile system and the GORAE-class experimental ballistic missile submarine.

Recent commercial satellite imagery of the Sinpo South Shipyard indicates that North Korea is continuing to actively pursue development of both programs. Specifically:
◾Imagery of the boat basin not only shows post-launch (maintenance) activity at the submarine but also suggests that the program may be moving towards a more advanced stage of development where the need for a submersible test stand barge has diminished. That conclusion appears to be reinforced by recent test launches from the submarine itself rather than the barge.
◾The refurbishment activity at the submarine construction halls is externally complete and the extend ramp, where new boats are launched, appears almost finished. When complete, the North will be able to build and launch submarines much larger than the GORAE-class—including a new class of ballistic missile submarines.

While North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile program is making progress, these activities appear in line with previous estimates that the first ballistic missile submarine and operational missiles are unlikely to become operational before 2020.

Successful Test of Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile

On the afternoon of April 23, North Korea’s experimental GORAE-class submarine, designed to carry ballistic missiles, left its home port and cruised just a short distance into the East Sea to a point immediately off the coast. At approximately 6:30 PM, the boat conducted a successful test launch of the Bukkeukseong-1 (Polaris-1, KN-11) submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM). The missile travelled approximately 30 km before landing in the East Sea. The test, which follows what many sources believe was an aborted test launch a few weeks earlier, was probably intended to be limited focusing upon the submarine’s launch systems, missile ignition sequence and initial guidance operations rather than a full operational test. It is likely that there will be additional tests from the submarine this year as the North develops experience and builds toward a full-range operational test.

Post-Launch Activity at the Boat Basin

Commercial satellite imagery of the Sinpo South Shipyard taken six days after the successful test shows post-launch activity (e.g., inspection, maintenance and resupply) at the submarine. Alongside the boat is, what appears to be, a large shipping container that measures approximately 10 meters by 1.5 meters. This size is generally consistent with a missile the size of the Bukkeukseong-1. Its size and location as well as the presence of a heavy-duty crane suggest that the container may be intended to carry the missile.

Figure 1. Post-launch activity at the secure boat basin at Sinpo South Shipyard on April 28, 2016.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

Also present in the secure boat basin are the submersible missile test stand barge and two support vessels. The submersible barge has been moved from its normal position along the main dock immediately south of the submarine to the north along a secondary dock. This shift in location suggests that the SLBM program may be moving towards a more advanced stage of development where the need for a submersible test stand barge has diminished. That conclusion appears to be reinforced by recent test launches from the submarine itself rather than the barge.

A small support vessel not present in previous imagery is now visible and is docked at the north end of the secure boat basin. This vessel may be used to tow the submersible test stand barge and support the submarine during ejection tests.

Refurbishment of Construction Halls Externally Complete

Imagery indicates that the refurbishment activity at the construction halls, 400 meters to the south of the boat basin, appears to be externally complete. Construction of the expanded ramp in front of the largest hall is in its final stages. A barge appears in front of the way probably working on the underwater rails or clearing obstacles. Once the refurbishment program is finished, the North will be able to build submarines much larger than the GORAE-class—including a new class of ballistic missile submarines.

Figure 2. Construction halls appear externally complete at the Sinpo South Shipyard on April 28, 2016. (See insert for note on mother ship.)

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.

Vertical Test Stand Inactive

There is little activity at the vertical test stand located approximately 1,100 meters southwest of the secure boat basin used in the past by the ballistic missile submarine programs for launch tube and “pop-up” testing. The removable tower used to support tests remains in place allowing the North to more quickly conduct a “pop-up” or ejection test with little prior indications. A small vehicle is present on the stand, although no specific significance can be attached to this at present.

Figure 3. Test Stand at the Sinpo South Shipyard on April 28, 2016.

Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Image includes material Pleiades © CNES 2016. Distribution Airbus DS / Spot Image, all rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
 

vestige

Deceased
:dot5:

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...mounting-regional-threats?cmpid=yhoo.headline

NATO Upgrades Ties With Israel Amid Mounting Regional Threats

by David Wainer
May 4, 2016 — 1:04 AM PDT

NATO has upgraded its ties with Israel, tightening its cooperation with the Jewish state amid mounting instability in the Middle East.

Israel will now be able to open offices at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s headquarters in Brussels and complete a credentialing process for its representatives, Foreign Ministry spokesman Emmanuel Nahshon said. The step is “important” and will help boost Israeli security, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

“This is additional testimony to the status of Israel and the desire of many to cooperate with us in the security domain,” he said.

The NATO upgrade may help Netanyahu deflect criticism that his nation is being isolated by international allies due to lack of progress in peacemaking with the Palestinians.

While Israel is not a member of the 28-country alliance, it has participated in its Mediterranean Dialogue program since its establishment in 1994. It signed a security agreement with the alliance in 2001, is an associate member of the NATO parliamentary assembly and has taken part in joint military exercises with the organization.

This is the only good world news I have seen lately.

The hoopla over Trump's recent victories are newsworthy (BTW I love Trump... at least what he says) but let's not forget...

the hyenas are circling for the kill... our kill.

All of this action in the world can eventually, with a little thought, be tied back to plans for the demise of the U.S.

lest we forget... bump
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/...sia-to-hold-joint-military-drills/567825.html

China and Russia to Hold Joint Military Drills

The Moscow Times
May. 03 2016 15:05
Last edited 15:05


Moscow and Beijing are to hold their first computer-assisted missile defense drill in May, the TASS news agency reported Tuesday.

Russia's Defense Ministry announced in a press release that the exercise will use “the combined operations of Russian and Chinese air and missile defense task forces” to provide protection “from accidental or provocative ballistic or cruise missile attacks.” Both countries maintain that the drill is not directed against a third party.

Although Russia and China have not entered into a formal military alliance, the two countries recently agreed to increase bilateral military cooperation.

On Friday, Russia's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the two countries will increase the number of joint military exercises in 2016.

"We highly appreciate a high level of Russian-Chinese contacts both at the state and defense levels. This year we are going to hold more exercises and events than in past years," Shoigu said, according to TASS.

Moscow and Beijing also recently united their foreign policy aims by making a joint appeal to the United States not to install a new anti-missile system in South Korea.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said last week that the proposed Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system on the Korean Peninsula would be viewed as a security threat.

“This move goes beyond the defensive needs of the relevant countries. If it is deployed it will directly impact China’s and Russia’s respective strategic security,” Wang Yi said.

“Not only does it threaten the resolution of the peninsula's nuclear issue, it quite possibly could pour oil on the fire of an already tense situation, and even destroy strategic equilibrium on the peninsula,” Reuters quoted the official as saying.


See also:

U.S. Troops Enter Moldova for Joint Military Exercise

Tanzania Bids for Russian Military Supplies

New Deal Sees Chinese Companies Relocating to Russian Far East
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2016/05/04/rebalancing_missile_defense_109331.html

May 4, 2016

Rebalancing Missile Defense

By David J. Trachtenberg

Despite development by Russia and China of newer and more sophisticated nuclear-armed ballistic missiles capable of striking the American homeland, U.S. missile defense policy remains rigidly mired in the Cold War thinking that downplays these threats and considers defenses against them to be “destabilizing.” It is time to rethink this approach.

The United States withdrew 14 years ago from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, which prohibited nationwide defenses against missile attacks, but policymakers remain firmly wedded to the doctrine of mutual vulnerability it enshrined. Consequently, U.S. missile defenses remain modest and focused on the least robust missile threats while leaving Americans deliberately vulnerable to the most robust.

China’s growing assertiveness in Asia is backed by its expanding nuclear capabilities and Beijing has bragged openly about its improved ability to target America’s largest cities with long-range ballistic missiles. Senior American military officials have declared that Moscow now poses the greatest threat to the United States. While the United States has reduced its deployed nuclear weapons under the New START Treaty, Russia’s totals have actually increased. And Russia’s military doctrine, nuclear modernization programs, and strategic forces exercises suggest that Moscow takes nuclear weapons seriously even if Washington doesn’t.

Missile defense of the U.S. homeland relies on the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system consisting primarily of 30 Ground-Based Interceptors (GBIs). Despite plans to add 14 interceptors by the end of next year, this modest capability is hardly a counter to the hundreds of long-range missiles carrying well more than a thousand nuclear warheads Russia can launch against the United States.

The administration has proposed improving the near-term “hit-to-kill” capability of the GBIs by developing a redesigned kill vehicle (RKV) with better reliability, performance, and discrimination capability. This is a good move. However, the FY17 funding request of $274 million for the RKV is less than last year’s appropriated amount. And while funding is projected to increase in the future, “outyear” projections that extend into a subsequent administration often go unrealized. In addition, the first actual RKV intercept test would not occur until at least 2019. Barring congressional action, the return of sequestration next year could force additional delays in this critical effort.

Funding for other hit-to-kill technologies like the proposed Multi-Object Kill Vehicle (MOKV) – a future successor to the RKV that can destroy multiple incoming warheads with a single shot – is also being cut in FY17. Given both Russia’s and China’s development of new multiple warhead ICBMs, the MOKV program could help shift the cost equation in favor of the defense and improve deterrence. But again, most of the requested $71.5 million for the MOKV is in the outyears.

Other hit-to-kill technologies are also at risk as a result of budget cuts, including the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and the Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) intended to defeat shorter-range missile threats. These reductions will impact interceptor inventory on systems that directly counter growing threats in the Asia-Pacific region, Europe, and the Middle East.

Vice Admiral James Syring, MDA’s Director, has noted that cuts to U.S. missile defense programs have been disproportionately severe compared to cuts in the overall DoD budget resulting from last year’s Bipartisan Budget Agreement. Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) Strategic Forces Subcommittee Chairman Sen. Jeff Sessions has pointed out that over the last decade the MDA budget has shrunk by 14 percent while funding for technology research and development has dropped twice as much in percentage terms. All of this reflects a disturbing lack of urgency.

Decreasing missile defense budgets in the face of increasing ballistic missile threats just doesn’t add up, and this trend must be reversed.

The missile defense test program is also operationally challenged, as a recent Government Accountability Office report concludes. An MDA fact sheet states that testing “contributes to U.S. non-proliferation goals by sending a very credible message to the international community on our ability to defeat ballistic missiles in flight, thus reducing their value to potential adversaries.” But no GMD flight tests occurred last year and only one has taken place so far this year. This is hardly the hallmark of a serious effort. If we don’t take our missile defense program seriously, why should our adversaries?

It is also time to move forward with other measures that could bolster American defenses and strengthen deterrence. These include space-based defenses designed to destroy ballistic missiles in their early phases of flight; an east coast interceptor site to improve defensive coverage of the U.S. homeland; options against shorter-range missiles that can be launched from off our coasts; and directed energy capabilities for missile defense – including on unmanned platforms – capable of defeating missiles within minutes of launch. These efforts should be pursued in addition to, and not at the expense of, near-term necessities like RKV.

Congress now has an opportunity to rebalance U.S. missile defense priorities. In its recently-passed version of the FY17 National Defense Authorization Act, the House Armed Services Committee included a provision that supports greater research, development, and integration of space-based defenses into the ballistic missile defense architecture. The SASC should follow suit.

Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution establishes the Congress’ responsibility to “provide for the common defense.” Exercising that responsibility is not optional. When it comes to protecting Americans against the threat of ballistic missile attack, it is time to get on with this task.


David J. Trachtenberg is President and Chief Executive Officer of Shortwaver Consulting, LLC and a Wikistrat analyst. From 2001-2003, he served as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy and was formerly a Professional Staff Member with the House Armed Services Committee.
 

Housecarl

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Posted for fair use.....
http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2016/05/04/mexico_on_the_edge_of_now_111831.html

May 4, 2016

Mexico, on the Edge of Now

By Reva Goujon
Comments 3


I recommend never leaving for a trip without bringing a literary companion along. If an onslaught of meetings awaits me at my destination, a collection of short stories or some poetry will do a fine job of filling the crevices of a jam-packed agenda. If several days of leisure lie ahead, then the shoulder aches from hauling a hefty novel in my bag will be well worth the hours spent engrossed in a great story (while I envy all of you efficient Kindle readers, with your slim, lit screens, I still prefer the old-fashioned reading experience of dog-eared pages, crisp and musty paper aromas, airline tickets repurposed as bookmarks.) The selection of a literary companion should never be rushed; careful thought must be given to whose words will best set the scene for what you are about to experience.

Octavio Paz and the Search For the Mexican Soul

This time, my destination is Mexico City. I am tempted to reach again for Roberto Bolano so I can relive the adventures of the visceral realists on Insurgentes Avenue, but this time, Octavio Paz is beckoning me from the bookshelf.

Paz is not the most uplifting read. A Nobel laureate best known for his literary attempts to probe the depths of the Mexican soul, Paz likes to take his readers down a dark and introspective path to explain, layer by layer, a Mexican identity of fused Indian and European blood that lives in admiration, fear and envy of its North American neighbor. But Paz's somber portrayal of Mexican identity is sometimes difficult to reconcile with what most outsiders and locals experience. As he described in The Labyrinth of Solitude:

The Mexican, whether young or old, criollo or mestizo, general or laborer or lawyer, seems to me to be a person who shuts himself away to protect himself ... he builds a wall of indifference and remoteness between reality and himself, a wall that is no less impenetrable for being invisible. The Mexican is always remote, from the world and from other people. And also from himself.

From Paz's description, you would think Mexico were a member of the Warsaw Pact, a grey and isolated place dripping with paranoia where people live like hermits and constantly eye each other with suspicion. This is definitely not the impression you would get from walking through one of the city's many bustling markets, where you can pay on the honor system for a quesadilla fresh off the griddle or lime-sprinkled jicama among a throng of people of all ages. Nor does Paz's description fit the scene of the Mexican cantina, where the first few lyrics or a single guitar strum commencing a particularly beloved mariachi song launches patrons of all generations into spontaneous chorus.

But Paz's obsession with walls, both physical and imaginary, strikes at something deeper. Paz's words start to gel when I consider the striking contrast between homes in Mexico and the United States. In the United States, the home is a symbol of economic achievement, a prize that deserves to be displayed with a neatly manicured front lawn opening up to the street like a green entry rug. Never mind the tall hedges and imposing gates of our English ancestors; American homes were meant to be a reflection of security, success and egalitarianism for the neighborhood and the world to see.

On the other hand, residences in Mexico are an extension of, as opposed to a reaction to, the country's colonial past. When Hernan Cortes conquered the Aztec capital of Tenochtitlan in what is now Mexico City five centuries ago, he had the capital of New Spain built on a grid that segregated Spaniards in the city center from the local Indians in the surroundings. The conqueror can never live at ease with the conquered and so Spanish homes were built like fortresses, with tall imposing walls shielding the residence from the street. As the city grew larger and grittier, the wealthy moved westward to the colonias, where European-style boulevards and neighborhoods were more insulated from the inner city while the working classes were pushed more to the eastern and northern quarters. When further insulation was needed, post-revolutionary Mexico City took a cue from the English urban planner Ebenezer Howard, whose concept of a Garden City - a natural escape from industrial city life - inspired in the 1930s the development of Lomas de Chapultepec, one of the city's wealthiest suburbs.

The fortress style of the Spanish colonial era is seen in many of Mexico City's more affluent neighborhoods, where the home turns its back to the street in a very Paz-like fashion. All that can be viewed from the street is a row of solid walls, each one exhibiting a carefully crafted design to reflect the taste of the owner, leaving a cloud of mystique hanging over the passerby outside to imagine what lies beyond the metal fortress. Once behind those walls, the home opens up into a sanctuary for what is most sacred to Mexico's national culture: the family. Rather than wasting space on a front yard for show, the Mexican home will typically feature an interior garden or courtyard that ties in all the sections of the home and draws the family together.

Then there is a part of the city where the Mexican home ceases to be Mexican altogether. On the western edge of the city lies the neighborhood of Santa Fe. Thirty years ago, this was no-man's land - first an area of sand strip mines and then, once the sand ran out, a giant garbage dump where the poor would rummage through piles of waste for a living. Sprouting from that dump today is the hermetic society that Paz described with such foreboding. A freshly constructed highway cleaves through the former landfill, efficiently segregating a dense and colorful hodgepodge of slums from a sterile landscape of luxury high-rise condos, gargantuan shopping malls and glittering corporate towers. Public transportation is not an option here. And with all the amenities that any affluent American suburban scene would offer, there is no reason to leave. This is both a security compound and permanent escape for wealthy Mexicans to seal their families off from the dangers of the city streets.

This is a scene that would chill Paz to his bones. Paz implored his fellow citizens to connect with their Mesoamerican roots and internalize the idea that "Mexico is a nation between two civilizations and two pasts." In an article he wrote for The New Yorker in 1979, Paz described how language, religion, political institutions and culture in Mexico may be Spanish, but "Mexico is Mexico thanks to the Indian presence." The more wealthy Mexicans of European-descent retreat from the city and opt to live in tall buildings in the sky, the more they sever their links to the poorer indigenous peoples down below. Paz describes the Indian in his writing as the "Nobody," the one easily forgotten.

The Indian blends into the landscape until he is an indistinguishable part of the white wall against which he leans at twilight, of the dark earth on which he stretches out to rest at midday, of the silence that surrounds him... Nobody is the blankness in our looks, the pauses in our conversations, the reserve in our silences. He is the name we always and inevitably forget, the eternal absentee, the guest we never invite, the emptiness we can never fill. He is an omission, and yet he is forever present. He is our secret, our crime, and our remorse. Thus the person who creates Nobody, by denying Somebody's existence, is also changed into Nobody. And if we are all Nobody, then none of us exists. The circle is closed and the shadow of Nobody spreads out over our land, choking the Gesticulator and covering everything. Silence - the prehistoric silence, stronger than all the pyramids and sacrifices, all the churches and uprisings and popular songs - comes back to rule over Mexico.

Paz fears that this silence could one day subsume Mexico if the country is not careful. Inequality in Mexico is already staggering. According to international aid organization Oxfam, 46 percent of Mexico's population of 122 million remains beneath the poverty line, with the country's richest 1 percent holding 43 percent of the country's wealth. Mexico may be the 15th largest country in the world by gross domestic product and the 11th largest by purchasing power parity, but institutional decay, corruption, a poor education system and depressed wages have fueled a cycle of the rich getting richer and the poor disappearing more and more into a silent majority. Many have pronounced the demise of the left and populism throughout Latin America, citing the commodity bust as the cause of death. But anyone willing to see the stark contrast between the living conditions of Iztapalapa and Santa Fe in Mexico City, or the disparity between Nuevo Leon in the north and Oaxaca in the south, would consider such pronouncements premature.

Tearing Down the Invisible Wall

This is the dark side to Mexico's growth story. But it is a growth story nonetheless, one that is intrinsically tied to Mexico's northern neighbor. Mexico and the United States have a shared geopolitical destiny. If the U.S. economy grows, Mexico's economy is riding shotgun. If the U.S. economy sputters, Mexico's economy tumbles. Nearly 80 percent of Mexico's exports are destined for U.S. markets and half of those exports are higher value products like vehicles and electronic goods as parts of the country continue climbing up the value chain. Rising flows of U.S. natural gas to its southern neighbor provide Mexico with cheaper and cleaner fuel to expand the electric grid and support a growing manufacturing base. U.S. investment will at the same time be essential to Mexico's ability to rehabilitate its energy industry over the next decade. As the United States improves its energy security and drives growth in advanced technologies like additive manufacturing and robotics, more capital and more jobs will return to North America and tighten up already well-integrated supply chains across the continent.


In the decades ahead, the U.S. economy will stand in a much stronger position relative to its peers in the developed world. But there will of course be bumps along the way with repercussions on both sides of the U.S.-Mexican border. The American middle class and blue-collar workers will not feel part of an economic recovery so long as their wages remain stagnant and living conditions remain difficult. The immigrant easily becomes the scapegoat for that economic frustration and Mexico once again becomes a punching bag in the United States. As Paz advised in the run-up to the 1996 U.S. presidential election, "Americans should not be that angry with Mexico, because we are condemned to live side by side."

The fear that this wave of anti-immigrant sentiment will linger well beyond the U.S. election has been weighing heavily on the minds of many Mexican political and business elites. The idea of Washington cutting off remittances to Mexico unless Mexico pays for a wall to keep illegal immigrants out was easily dismissed as campaign rhetoric in Washington, but it struck a chord in Mexico City. In 2014, the United States sent out $54.2 billion every year in remittances, with $24 billion destined for Mexico. U.S. remittances to Mexico add up to only 2 percent of Mexico's GDP, but cutting them would have a devastating effect on the country's poorest regions, which would do whatever it takes to keep funds flowing underground. For Mexico, this would be tantamount to an act of war. To my surprise, the conversation around the dinner table in Mexico City even turned to what a potential military conflict between Mexico and the United States would look like in a 21st century setting.


The deep-seated paranoia Mexico harbors toward its northern neighbor is nothing new. Paz would say that this friction is what you get when you place side by side two versions of Western civilization, one grounded in Protestant reformism and the other in the ritualism of Catholic orthodoxy. From a geopolitical perspective, Mexico ineluctably resides in the shadow of a much larger, resource-abundant, capital-rich empire. Whether Mexico City tries to project power across the northern desert or across the Gulf of Mexico, the core of Mexico on the central high plateau and along the coast of Veracruz are inherently vulnerable to U.S. military preponderance. In other words, challenging the North American superpower is simply not an option for Mexico.

But that does not mean it makes sense for the United States to challenge its smaller southern neighbor, either. Demographics will shape North America's destiny in the 21st century. By 2050, Europe, Japan, Russia and China will face existential questions over their economic models and the competitiveness of their militaries as the proportion of working-age population narrows sharply. The U.S. and Mexican population will be aging as well, but at a slower rate. With a wider base of working-age people, driven in large part by its immigrant population, the United States will have an easier time adapting to the coming demographic crunch. Even as immigration flows turned negative between 2009 and 2014 as more Mexicans returned home than came to the United States looking for work, the United States overall saw a quadrupling of the Hispanic share of the U.S. population from 1965 to 2015, according to Pew Research Center. The more Hispanics expand their share of the U.S. electorate (in 2016, 27.3 million mostly Millennial Hispanics will be eligible to vote) the more politically engaged they will be in American politics. By virtue of geography, a Mexican-American in the United States does not cease being Mexican when he or she settles north. Matters of the homeland will regularly spill across the border.

As Mexico City's influence gradually migrates from the borderland to Washington, Mexico will be growing in lockstep with the United States, with the potential to join the top 10 economies in the world within a matter of years. But this is a future that is still difficult for Mexico to internalize. Paz describes this as the ultimate contradiction between Mexico and the United States. The American, Paz said, "lives on the very edge of the now, always ready to leap toward the future" - a condition shaped by the United States' philosophical and geopolitical origins. Mexico, on the other hand, looks back, haunted by its "plurality of pasts, all present and at war within every Mexican's soul. Cortes and Montezuma are still alive in Mexico."

Paranoia regarding U.S. intentions and neglect for its indigenous peoples will paralyze Mexico City for only so long. North America is on the edge of now, and the time has come for Mexico to face its demons, one wall at a time.


Reprinted with permission from Stratfor.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
http://johnbatchelorshow.com/schedules/tuesday-3-may-2016

Hour Three
Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 3, Block A: Stephen F. Cohen is Prof. Emeritus of Russian Studies/History/Politics at NYU and Princeton. He is also a member of the Board of the recently-formed American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re: Syria. The growing crisis in Ukraine. Putin entered Syria to save Assad to prevent ISIS from taking over.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...-border-eucom-chief-urges-return-war-planning (1 of 4)

Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 3, Block B: Stephen F. Cohen, prof. Emeritus, Princeton; also American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...o-under-cover-of-darkness-as-assad-planes-ci/ (2 of 4)

Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 3, Block C: Stephen F. Cohen, prof. Emeritus, Princeton; also American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-putin-reshuffle-lawenforcement-idUSKCN0XR0P2 (3 of 4)

Tuesday 3 May 2016 / Hour 3, Block D: Stephen F. Cohen, prof. Emeritus, Princeton; also American Committee for East-West Accord (eastwestaccord.com); in re: (4 of 4)
.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..
from ZeroHedge
With anti-establishmentarians on the rise in the US & Europe, it appears the neocons and their NATO proxy aren't wasting any time and are stepping up not just the words, but their deeds, against a so-called "resurgent Russia." NATO's European Command (EUCOM) "needs to change," blasts General Philip Breedlove, urging the military to get back to the business of war planning, a skill lost during the post-Cold War era saying his objective is to send a signal of deterrence to Russia. That signal was heard loud and clear as NATO is deploying an additional four battalions of 4,000 troops to the Russian border in Poland and the three Baltic States, according to a report citing US Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work.

"We have to be ready for a situation where we don't have Russia as a partner," warns EUCOM Gen. Philip Breedlove, adding that the military here needs to get back to the business of war planning, a skill lost during the post-Cold War era and one needed again in the face of a resurgent Russia. As Military.com reports,
On Tuesday, Breedlove will walk a final time across the parade ground at EUCOM headquarters, handing off leadership of more than 60,000 troops to Gen. Curtis M. Scaparrotti.

Unlike when Breedlove assumed command in 2013, Scaparrotti arrives at a time of upheaval as the continent contends with Cold War-like tensions with Russia, a refugee crisis tearing at Europe's social fabric, and increased fears about terrorism because of war along NATO's southern flank.

Scaparrotti will lead a EUCOM headquarters that over the years has shrunk in size -- it is the second-smallest of all combatant commands -- even as the Pentagon attempts to boost its presence along NATO's eastern edge.

Breedlove said more work needs to be done to lift EUCOM out of its post-Cold War mindset, which resulted in "building partner capacity," military parlance for training missions. EUCOM is a "mere fraction" of what it was a generation ago, a downsizing that occurred when the U.S. was trying to make a partner out of Russia.

"I am very sure about how EUCOM needs to change," Breedlove said during a recent exit interview with Stars and Stripes. "This headquarters shrank and changed from a war-fighting headquarters to a building-partnership-capacity, engagement kind of headquarters."

"This headquarters needs to be a warfighting headquarters," he said.

Reorienting EUCOM into a warfighting headquarters likely would demand more resources, more troops and new contingency plans to conduct combat operations within Europe.

In the past three years, EUCOM has responded to new security concerns by boosting its presence in eastern Europe, mainly through rotational troops and pre-positioned tanks and other armor.

A $3.4 billion Pentagon proposal, prompted by what the West sees as a more aggressive and unpredictable Russia, seeks to build upon recent efforts in the year ahead.

Dealing with Russia's formidable capabilities around the Baltics, where NATO is outmanned and outgunned, is one obstacle allies will need to prepare for better, according to Breedlove.

Some critics, particularly in Berlin, have said Breedlove's rhetoric sometimes has been too hawkish. The general rejects such criticism, saying his objective is to send a signal of deterrence to Russia; and as RT reports, NATO's deployment of an additional 4,000 troops to the Russian border signals their intent loud and clear...

Work confirmed the number of troops to be sent to the border with Russia, The Wall Street Journal reports. He said the reason for the deployment is Russia’s multiple snap military exercises near the Baltics States.

“The Russians have been doing a lot of snap exercises right up against the borders, with a lot of troops,” Work said as cited by the Wall Street Journal. “From our perspective, we could argue this is extraordinarily provocative behavior.”

Moscow has been unhappy with the NATO military buildup at Russia’s borders for some time now; and with this latest move, The Russians, as expected, are displeased...

“NATO military infrastructure is inching closer and closer to Russia’s borders. But when Russia takes action to ensure its security, we are told that Russia is engaging in dangerous maneuvers near NATO borders. In fact, NATO borders are getting closer to Russia, not the opposite,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Sweden’s Dagens Nyheter daily.

Poland and the Baltic States of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have regularly pressed NATO headquarters to beef up the alliance’s presence on their territory.

According to the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act, the permanent presence of large NATO formations at the Russian border is prohibited. Yet some voices in Brussels are saying that since the NATO troops stationed next to Russia are going to rotate, this kind of military buildup cannot be regarded as a permanent presence.

Russia’s Defense Ministry says it’s ready for a tit-for-tat response to any NATO military activity near Russia’s borders. As Russia’s envoy to NATO Aleksandr Grushko put it, there are no “passive observes” in the Russian armed forces and Moscow would definitely compensate militarily for an “absolutely unjustified military presence.”


https://audioboom.com/boos/4518912-...phen-f-cohen-nyu-princeton-eastwestaccord-com
NATO Guns along the Russian Frontier. Stephen F. Cohen, NYU, Princeton, EastWestAccord.com.
05-03-2016

(Photo: ‪#Lithuania celebrates 25th anniversary of the restoration of its independence, flying flags of #EU and @nato allies.)

http://JohnBatchelorShow.com/contact

http://JohnBatchelorShow.com/schedules

http://johnbatchelorshow.com/blog

Twitter: @batchelorshow

#NATO Guns along the #Russian Frontier. Stephen F. Cohen, #NYU, #Princeton, EastWestAccord.com.

“The NATO is weighing rotating four battalions of troops through Eastern European member states, US Defense Secretary Ash Carter said yesterday (2 May), in the latest proposal by allies to guard against aggressive behavior by Russia.

"The Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – which joined NATO in 2004, have requested greater presence of the alliance, fearing a threat from Russia after it annexed the Crimea peninsula from Ukraine in 2014.

“Poland, which will host the NATO Warsaw summit on 8-9 July, has asked the alliance to agree to deploy ‘substantial’ numbers of forces and equipment in Central and Eastern Europe to ensure the region’s security in the face of a more aggressive Russia….”

http://www.euractiv.com/section/glo...battalions-in-member-states-bordering-russia/

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...-border-eucom-chief-urges-return-war-planning

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...o-under-cover-of-darkness-as-assad-planes-ci/

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-putin-reshuffle-lawenforcement-idUSKCN0XR0P2

Podcast
https://audioboom.com/boos/4518912-...phen-f-cohen-nyu-princeton-eastwestaccord-com
 

Housecarl

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Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/israeli-raids-gaza-day-border-tensions-194818766.html

Israeli raids on Gaza after day of border tensions

Adel Zaanoun
AFP
May 4, 2016

Gaza City (Palestinian Territories) (AFP) - Israel launched air raids Wednesday on the Gaza Strip after a day of tensions along the border of the Palestinian territory whose Islamist rulers warned against an escalation.

Air strikes hit around Gaza's derelict international airport near the southern city of Rafah and in nearby farming areas, said the territory's Hamas-run interior ministry.

Security sources in Gaza said the jets fired two missiles at the airport but said no one was hurt in the strikes.

Israel's army said its warplanes had hit five sites operated by Hamas.

"The (Israel armed forces) will continue to operate in order to protect the civilians of Israel from all Hamas terrorist threats above & beneath ground," spokesman Peter Lerner said on Twitter.

The raids followed a bout of violence on the Gaza-Israel border Wednesday, with exchanges of fire that put a 2014 ceasefire agreement to the test.

Israeli tanks shelled the Palestinian enclave at least twice, saying it was in response to mortar fire across the border, while the army designated an Israeli border town a closed military zone.

A military official said up to five mortar shells in total were fired at Israeli territory, while forces were fired upon near the small border community of Nahal Oz.

"In accordance with security assessments, a closed military zone has been established in the area of Nahal Oz," an army statement said.

"It means that only the residents of Nahal Oz and the area can enter."

Earlier the Israeli army twice confirmed its tanks had fired on targets in Gaza, saying both times it was in response to mortar rounds fired from inside the strip.

Palestinian security sources reported tank fire in Al-Tufah in eastern Gaza.

There were no reported casualties and no claims of responsibility for the mortar fire.

- Warnings of escalation -

Hamas and Islamic Jihad, another militant Palestinian group, released separate statements warning Israel against any escalation along the border.

Hamas' armed wing, the Ezzedine al-Qassem Brigades, said it was ready to respond to Israel's strikes.

"We will not permit this aggression to continue and the enemy should not invoke any reason and leave the Strip immediately," the group said in a statement.

Wednesday's violence puts pressure on a ceasefire that has held since the last round of hostilities in Gaza ended in summer 2014.

Despite Israeli allegations that Hamas is building new tunnels in Gaza that could reach into Israel, the border region has remained relatively quiet since then.

The tunnels were cited by Israel as a key cause of the 50-day 2014 war in Gaza, which killed 2,251 Palestinians, mostly civilians, and 73 Israelis, including 67 soldiers, according to the United Nations.

The ceasefire which ended the conflict has been sporadically threatened by rocket fire from Gaza.

Most of it has been attributed to fringe Islamist groups challenging Hamas's authority, although Israel holds Hamas responsible for all rocket fire from the territory and routinely responds with attacks on its positions.

The UN's special coordinator for the Middle East peace process, Nickolay Mladenov, said he was "concerned" at Wednesday's escalation.

"It is critical that peace be maintained to ensure the safety and security of Israelis and Palestinians, alike," he said in a statement.

During a visit to the Gaza border on Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed its calmest period in years, according to comments reported by Israeli media.

"We are nearing the end of close to two years since Operation Protective Edge," he said, referring to the 2014 conflict.

"These have been the quietest two years we can recall since Hamas came to power."

Daniel Nisman, founder of the Levantine analysis group, said the Netanyahu visit could have triggered a reaction.

"Maybe for Hamas that lit one fuse too many," he told AFP.


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Housecarl

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Posted for fair use.....
https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-gathers-allies-next-steps-islamic-state-fight-091349001.html?nhp=1

U.S., allies agree to do more to combat Islamic State

By Phil Stewart
May 4, 2016

STUTTGART, Germany (Reuters) - U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said on Wednesday that Washington and its allies had agreed to do more in their campaign to defeat Islamic State but that more risks lay ahead.

Carter made the comment following talks in Germany with defense ministers and representatives from 11 other nations participating in the alliance.

He said the United States greatly regretted the death of a Navy SEAL in an attack by the jihadist group in northern Iraq on Tuesday. He named the man as Petty Officer First Class Charles Keating.

"These risks will continue ... but allowing ISIL safe haven would carry greater risk for us all," he added, using an acronym for Islamic State.

"We also agreed that all of our friends and allies across the counter-ISIL coalition can and must do more as well, both to confront ISIL in Iraq and Syria and its metastases elsewhere."

The talks included ministers from France, Britain and Germany and were planned well in advance of Tuesday's attack, in which Islamic State fighters blasted through Kurdish defenses and overran a town.

The elite serviceman was the third American to be killed in direct combat since the U.S.-led coalition launched a campaign in 2014 to "degrade and destroy" Islamic State, and is a measure of its deepening involvement in the conflict.

Offering new details about Keating's mission, Carter said the SEAL's job was to operate with Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga forces to train and assist them north of the city of Mosul.

"That part of the peshmerga front came under attack ... and they found themselves in a firefight," Carter said.

In mid-April, the United States announced plans to send an additional 200 troops to Iraq and put them closer to the front lines of battle to advise Iraqi forces.

In late April, President Barack Obama announced he would send an additional 250 special operations forces to Syria, greatly expanding the U.S. presence on the ground there to help draw in more Syrian fighters to combat Islamic State.

'GOING TO TAKE A LONG TIME'

Norwegian Defence Minister Ine Eriksen Soereide told Reuters that the ministers discussed ways to escalate the military fight against Islamic State and deal with concurrent humanitarian crises but that it was clear more hard work remained.

"There is no doubt Islamic State is under pressure ... but one has to be realistic," she said in a telephone interview. "This is difficult, this is complex. It's going to take a long time."

Soereide said Norway's decision this week to send 60 troops, including special forces soldiers, to support Syrian fighters, was made possible partly by the more structured plan for coordinating the fight against Islamic State that had emerged in recent months.

The Islamist militants have been broadly retreating since December, when the Iraqi army recaptured Ramadi, the largest city in the western region. Last month, the Iraqi army retook the nearby region of Hit, pushing the militants farther north along the Euphrates valley.

But U.S. officials acknowledge the military gains are not enough.

Iraq is beset by political infighting, corruption, a growing fiscal crisis and the Shi'ite Muslim-led government's fitful efforts to seek reconciliation with aggrieved minority Sunnis, the bedrock of Islamic State support.

(Reporting by Phil Stewart; Additional reporting by Andrea Shalal; Editing by John Stonestreet and Peter Cooney)

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