WAR 03-02-2024-to-03-09-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

(334) 02-10-2024-to-02-16-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(335) 02-17-2024-to-02-23-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(336) 02-24-2024-to-03-01-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****


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FOX NEWS FLASH

Iran primed to test nukes by end of 2024, ex-National Security Council official warns​

Israel's defense minister warned in 2023 that Iran has enough uranium for five bombs​

By Charles Creitz Fox News
Published March 2, 2024 8:00am EST

Iran primed to potentially test nukes this year: Ex-Trump national security official

Former National Security Council senior director Robert Greenway warns 'Life, Liberty & Levin' few are sounding alarm on Iran's progress.

A former senior director of the National Security Council warned Iran appears primed to test one or more nuclear weapons by the end of the year, while the media remains mostly silent.

Robert Greenway, now a national security senior adviser at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, said on Saturday's edition of "Life, Liberty & Levin" the Biden administration is not enforcing proper sanctions and claimed the Raisi regime in Tehran is close to their goal of nuclear armament.

"They are a hair's breadth away," Greenway said.

"Look, if they don't test a weapon by the end of the year, it's only their incompetence that prevents them from doing it. And it might, but it might not."

IRAN CAPABLE OF BUILDING NUCLEAR BOMB WITHIN ONE WEEK, REPORT FINDS

Host Mark Levin agreed, warning the media and feds alike should be "ringing the bells, banging the pots and pans" at what he described as a dire situation with a shortening timeline.

He reported Iran has the capability to produce as many as seven nukes and that their success only hinges on fusing their technology with intercontinental ballistic missiles.

"We're going to wake up one day [and say] ‘Oh my God, they have seven nuclear missiles’. I'm not hearing a thing from the White House, despite the fact that quote-unquote admiral, [John] Kirby, is over there and should be informing the American people what's coming," Levin said.

"All I'm seeing is the constant campaign; trashing the state of Israel; kissing up to the Islamic State of Iran while they're building [weapons technology]."

Greenway said some analysis suggests Iran may have the delivery systems capable or in-the-works to reach its regional enemy, Israel, as well as parts of Europe.

He contrasted potential Iranian nukes with ICBMs tested by North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un's regime.

"[Iran] has the stated intent and the motive to use [them]," he said.

Greenway recounted his final conversation with then-President Trump as a member of the administration was on this very topic, and that there was collective concern over what a nuclear-capable Iran could do in several respects.

"They would have control over the global energy market and a significant portion of the world's trade. We do not want to give the [Raisi] regime the ability to do that and to attack Israel and the United States," he said.

In February, an Iran watchdog also reported Tehran has enough weapons-grade uranium to construct a nuke within a week.

"The volatile situation in the region is providing Iran with a unique opportunity and increased internal justification for building nuclear weapons while the United States and Israel’s resources to detect and deter Iran from succeeding are stretched thin," said a report from the Institute for Science and International Security.

Uranium needs to be enriched to about 90% in order to be nuclear-capable, and reports showed Iran has a stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium as of late.

Further, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said in May 2023 Iran had at the time enough uranium for five nukes.

"Iran is not sufficing with one nuclear bomb. It has already accumulated enough enriched uranium at the 20% and 60% levels for five nuclear bombs," Gallant said during a visit to Greece, according to the Jerusalem Post.

Gallant warned the consequences of a nuclear-armed Iran could "inflame" the region.

Fox News' Anders Hagstrom contributed to this report.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use......

Indian agencies stop Pakistan-bound ship from China, seize cargo linked to nuclear weapons​

The ship was halted at Mumbai's Nhava Sheva port on the suspicion that it contained a dual-use consignment for Pakistan's nuclear programme. Defence authorities seized the consignment amid concerns that China is fuelling Pakistan's nuclear and missiles programme.​

Edited By: Aveek Banerjee @AveekABanerjeeMumbaiUpdated on: March 02, 2024 17:21 IST

Mumbai: A ship en route to Pakistan's Karachi from China has been stopped by Indian security agencies at Mumbai's Nhava Sheva port on the suspicion that it contained a dual-use consignment that could be used for Pakistan's nuclear and ballistic missiles programme, officials said on Saturday. Based on an intelligence input, the customs officials halted a Malta-flagged merchant ship - CMA CGM Attila - that was bound for Karachi.

Officials said there was a Computer Numerical Control (CNC) on that ship, originally manufactured by an Italian company. CNC machines are basically controlled by a computer and fall under the Wassenaar Arrangement, an international arms control regime aimed at curbing the spread of items with dual civilian and military applications, in which India is an active participant.

A Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) team also inspected the consignment and certified that it could be used by the neighbouring country for its nuclear programme. The equipment is said to provide assistance in manufacturing critical parts for Pakistan's missile programme.

India seizes cargo linked to Pakistan's nuclear programme

After the ship was halted, the Mumbai port officials alerted the Indian defence authorities, who inspected the heavy cargo and reported their suspicions. After this, the consignment was seized and the seizure fell under the prevention of possible proliferation by Pakistan and China, said officials.

Documents such as bills of loading and other details of the consignment showed the consigner was mentioned as "Shanghai JXE Global Logistics Co Ltd" and the consignee was "Pakistan Wings Pvt Ltd" of Sialkot. A deeper investigation by the security agencies indicated that the consignment, weighing 22,180 kg, was shipped by Taiyuan Mining Import and Export Co Ltd and meant for Cosmos Engineering in Pakistan, the officials said.

Notably, Cosmos Engineering, a Pakistani defence supplier, has been on a watchlist since March 12, 2022, when Indian authorities intercepted a shipment of Italian-made thermoelectric instruments, once again at the Nhava Sheva port. The officials said there have been concerns that Pakistan might be utilising China as a conduit to acquire restricted items from Europe and the US, masking identities to evade detection.

China's support to Pakistan's nuclear programme

There have been widespread concerns that China is assisting Pakistan's nuclear programme, since Beijing reportedly provided an industrial autoclave, crucial for missile production, to Islamabad by concealing it as industrial equipment on a Chinese vessel in 2020. The autoclave was seized from a Chinese ship -- Dai Cui Yun -- that carried a Hong Kong flag and had left Jiangyin port on the Yangtze River in Jiangsu province of China, bound for Pakistan's Port Qasim.

The seizure of the autoclave also strengthened apprehensions that Pakistan is unabashedly indulging in the illegal trade of missiles and violating the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). Three Chinese companies were sanctioned by the US in July last year for their involvement in supplying missile-applicable items to Pakistan's ballistic missile programme.

How is China supplying equipment to Pakistan?

The ongoing investigation aims to determine if the suspected Pakistani entities receiving these dual-use items are supplying these to Pakistan's Defence Science and Technology Organisation. Despite assertions of commitment to international conventions by both Pakistan and China, the interception of such covert shipments underscores persistent cooperation in potential proliferation activities, contravening global agreements and regulations, the officials said.

The officials further pointed out that China's assistance to Pakistan is being provided by either supplying sensitive materials of proliferation concerned clandestinely or acting as a conduit in facilitating the country to procure dual-use equipment or military-grade items from other countries like the US or Europe.

China has constructed four 300 MWe nuclear power plants in Chashma and two 1,000 MWe plants in Karachi, violating Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) guidelines. China has plans to construct another 1,000 MWe nuclear power plant in Chashma, they added.

(with inputs from PTI)
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use......

> March 2024
1 translation
Gold and a naval base: Russia’s wish list in northeast Africa

Is Sudan still a state?​

Seven million people have been displaced and around 20,000 killed in Sudan’s bloody, ongoing civil war, which has deep roots in the country’s history. Now, with a fast growing regional food crisis, Sudan is sliding into chaos.
by Gérard Prunier

When fierce fighting broke out in Khartoum on 15 April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary militia, the media attributed it entirely to the rival ambitions of ‘warlords’ General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti (‘little Mohamed’), respectively the president and vice-president of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, the junta then running the country.

In reality, far from being caused by personal rivalry, this conflict is rooted in the long history of the region and Sudan’s never-ending economic and social crisis. This is why the fighting spread and turned more violent, fuelled by massive arms imports, in particular from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for the RSF and Egypt for the SAF. To date, seven million people have been internally displaced or fled to Egypt or Chad. The government, itself displaced to Port Sudan, has lost control of half the country.

The United Nations’ and African Union’s conciliation attempts have failed. The US and Saudi Arabia pushed for talks, which began in Jeddah in May 2023, but the resulting ceasefires were immediately broken. Their focus is now on delivering humanitarian aid, not political and military issues. After the fall of the regional capitals of Darfur, Nyala, El Geneina and Zalingei, intense fighting has continued in El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur. It will be a turning point in the war if the army manages to retain control there or the RSF occupy the city (which has a population of one million and is sheltering 300,000 refugees as best it can). Massacres of Masalit people in El Geneina resumed after the SAF withdrew from there in mid-November (around 1,300 dead). Some survivors have fled to Chad.

This brutal conflict has deep roots. Almost all African states are artificial creations of colonial division. The exceptions are Ethiopia, which was never colonised despite a brief period under Italian occupation (...)

Full article: 2 963 words.
 

jward

passin' thru

Train, Harden, Sustain: Maintaining the Army’s Lethality in the Nuclear Shadow - War on the Rocks​


On the morning of Nov. 1, 1951, within the confines of Area 7 at the Nevada Nuclear Test Site, soldiers from the U.S. Army’s 11th Airborne Division dug foxholes and positioned weapon systems in anticipation of the Atomic Energy Commission’s BUSTER-JANGLE nuclear tests. The Soviet Union had conducted its first nuclear test two years earlier, prompting the Army to confront the possibility of its troops encountering nuclear weapons on the battlefield.

The exercise, known as “Desert Rock,” was an Army program aimed at studying soldiers’ psychological reactions to a nuclear detonation while also testing their ability to maneuver in a post-detonation environment. After the blast, troops moved in attack formation to seize an objective — at one point coming within 900 meters of ground zero. Despite of the dangers of subjecting servicemembers to radiological effects, such training was all too common at the height of the Cold War and only gradually declined as nuclear weapons became less prominent tools of war.
Now, however, nuclear weapons have surged back onto the global stage. Following the initiation of his “special military operation” in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin made nuclear threats part of his playbook in deterring the United States and NATO from intervening. Putin began by elevating Russia’s Strategic Missile Force alert level to “enhanced combat duty” and issued thinly veiled warnings of cataclysmic reprisals surpassing any in history against meddlesome nations. Additionally, he prepositioned nuclear weapons in Belarus while personally overseeing large-scale nuclear exercises.

Amid the crisis, NATO responded by increasing its troop levels in Europe. The U.S. Army established a new garrison in Poland and deployed an additional brigade combat team to the region in anticipation of aggression against the alliance. These brigade combat teams excel in conventional military operations. However, Russia’s demonstrated willingness to brandish nuclear weapons as a coercive tool and the persistent risk of NATO entering the conflict makes it increasingly likely that these forces will need to deploy, fight, and win in a nuclear environment.
During the Cold War, the Army trained its forces to fight on a nuclear battlefield — at one point reorganizing its force structure into Pentomic divisions to reduce the effects of nuclear weapons. Nevertheless, as the Soviet threat receded and counterinsurgency missions in Afghanistan and Iraq took precedence, Army leaders deemphasized nuclear scenarios in training, creating a gap in nuclear battlefield proficiency.

The Army should now rediscover the lost art of nuclear battlefield operations and prepare its soldiers for the uniquely devastating effects of nuclear weapons. While detonating nuclear weapons during training exercises is not a credible solution, the Army should reconsider training objectives, bolster hardening standards, and innovate sustainment methods to enhance the Army’s resilience during nuclear attacks and contribute to the Department of Defense’s broader conventional nuclear integration effort. In doing so, the Army will be better positioned to achieve wartime objectives against nuclear-armed adversaries and mitigate the coercive potential of nuclear weapons.

Reevaluating Priorities
After the Soviet Union collapsed, U.S. conventional forces trained less for nuclear contingencies. Army leaders prioritized emerging threats, like terrorism and insurgency, and considered it unnecessary to train for nuclear contingencies. Field exercises, wargaming, and training centers lacked nuclear scenarios at the brigade and battalion levels. Similarly, the Army’s weapon and vehicle platforms, such as the M1A2 Abrams and Bradley Fighting Vehicle, increasingly relied on commercial off-the-shelf technology. This technology, like the semiconductors powering fire control systems and blue force trackers, is vulnerable to nuclear blast effects, such as electromagnetic pulses, rendering entire formations ineffective as their circuits fail.

A gap in nuclear battlefield proficiency is untimely. U.S. adversaries have invested in nuclear forces capable of delivering various systems, including lower-yield warheads, fractional orbital bombardment systems, and advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles. Specifically, Russia adheres to a nuclear doctrine that emphasizes the calibrated use of nuclear weapons. Russia views nuclear weapons as an intra-war deterrence tool that offsets American advantages in conventional capabilities and prevents “regional wars” from escalating to “large-scale wars.” Russia deploys the largest and most diverse nuclear arsenal in the world and fields an agile arsenal of non-strategic nuclear weapons that provide flexible employment options. In short, Russia sees increased utility in nuclear weapons and might brandish them in potential conflicts with the United States and NATO. Given Russia’s war with Ukraine and its aggressive stance toward those who intervene, such scenarios are increasingly plausible.

One Small Bomb
The Army’s mission is to deploy, fight, and win the nation’s wars by providing ready, prompt, and sustained land dominance. Land dominance requires sustainment forces, power-projection nodes, and viable combat power. Sustainment units provide the fuel and maintenance necessary to maintain operational tempo. Seaports and airfields facilitate the flow of forces into an area of operation, serving as hubs for intra-theater resupply. Weapons and vehicles enable soldiers to neutralize the enemy and maneuver quickly across the battlefield. However, these components will confront unique challenges as the Army operates in theaters where nuclear threats loom large.

For instance, a single nuclear weapon carries enough explosive yield to obliterate most military formations and impede their advance on the battlefield. A sub-kiloton warhead’s blast overpressure and shockwave would tear through undispersed formations, disrupting communication networks and advanced sensors needed to target enemy troops. Critical land power-projection nodes, like the German ports at Bremerhaven and Hamburg, would also be destroyed.
At the tactical level, soldiers, unprepared due to a lack of nuclear training, would experience disarray as the psychological shock of witnessing fellow soldiers endure the immediate effects of thermal and gamma radiation takes hold. Junior leaders, whose pre-deployment training and education lacked nuclear exercises or training scenarios, would be unprepared to consolidate and reorganize their formations for subsequent objectives amid the chaos, rendering them ineffective.

Maintaining the Army’s Lethality in the Nuclear Shadow
To prepare for a nuclear contingency, the Army could consider four measures to improve its ability to shoot, move, and communicate in a nuclear environment. These include reevaluating vehicle hardening standards, prioritizing nuclear battlefield training, increasing operational redundancy through mission command, and pursuing an innovative approach to dispersed combat operations.

First, the Army could reexamine hardening standards and determine if vulnerabilities to high-altitude electromagnetic pulses exist. A limited nuclear attack may involve a nuclear detonation in the atmosphere that releases an electromagnetic pulse toward the Earth. Commercial off-the-shelf electronics enable the operation of all defense systems but are susceptible to such attacks because they sacrifice battlefield hardening standards for smaller size and faster processing speeds. This vulnerability exposes them to “single-event upset,” such as an electromagnetic pulse. An upset event could damage the digital fire control system and communication tools Army units rely on during combat operations, rendering them blind and incapable of communicating with their higher headquarters.
While the Army has maintained nuclear survivability as a critical performance parameter for its new equipment, it remains unclear if acquisition authorities prioritize it, as they can waive the requirement if necessary. An alternative approach could involve the U.S. Army Forces Command, in collaboration with the U.S. Army Nuclear and Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Agency, implementing a hardness surveillance and maintenance program for Army units deploying into combatant commands where an active nuclear threat exists (e.g., U.S. European Command). This program could identify vulnerabilities in commercial electronics within a platform’s central processing unit and determine where redundant measures are needed.

Second, brigade combat teams should prioritize nuclear battlefield training akin to other training events. While the Army has made significant strides in refocusing the force’s focus from counter-insurgency to near-peer threats, nuclear battlefield training remains absent from many of the active force’s training calendars. Moreover, chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear training often lacks the requisite attention and supervision from commanders. A straightforward solution is for Army leaders to prioritize nuclear battlefield training in the same manner they prioritize gunnery and combined live-fire exercises. Planning for such events typically consumes most of a unit’s time and is routinely inspected by division and brigade leadership. Nuclear battlefield training warrants an equivalent level of attention. By emphasizing nuclear battlefield training and refraining from treating it as an afterthought, Army units can enhance their preparedness and mitigate risks to their operational tempo.

Third, the Army could increase operational redundancy by further empowering company-grade leaders through mission command. Mission command — an Army leadership model — fosters disciplined initiative among subordinates to empower agile and adaptive leaders in large-scale combat operations. Disciplined initiative and agile thinking are crucial leadership traits, particularly as nuclear strikes sever mechanized units from their higher headquarters and rear support.
While the Army excels at teaching mission command, there is room for improvement. Administrators at the Army’s Maneuver Center of Excellence could make more prevalent seminars and maneuver exercises in its armor and infantry courses that prioritize nuclear contingencies and explain how nuclear battlefield proficiency contributes to regional and strategic deterrence. Such exercises could facilitate leaders’ familiarity with nuclear planning factors and develop the nuclear domain knowledge lacking in the current force. Furthermore, both the armor and infantry schoolhouse and active units could implement nuclear educational wargaming within their training programs. Wargames are cost-effective and durable, and soldiers can conduct them in unclassified environments, such as field exercises or company operations facilities. This form of “hip pocket training” would enable junior leaders and their subordinates to build upon their military education and exercise the tenets of mission command without the finality of nuclear combat.
Finally, the Army could contemplate an innovative approach to dispersed combat operations. One of the main constraints on ground combat operations is their rear-echelon sustainment requirements. Tanks and armored fighting vehicles consume large amounts of fuel and necessitate continuous preventative maintenance. These demands reduce dispersion during logistics package operations and limit the duration these units can operate independently from larger formations. Such sustainment and maintenance practices heighten the vulnerability of Army formations to a nuclear attack. Therefore, investigating methods for mechanized units to sustain operations when access to these support systems is restricted is of significant value.

One option could involve training soldiers on how to forage for fuel. Some systems, like the Abrams’ Honeywell AGT1500 engine, can operate on jet fuel, gasoline, diesel, and marine diesel — fuel options that might be plentiful in populated areas following a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse. Another option could entail cross-training Abrams and Bradley maintainers in various positions inside these vehicles. This effort could offer immediate maintenance support for troubleshooting faults and assist mechanized units in avoiding retrograding to rear areas for maintenance.

A Game of Chance
While prudent, these measures may not guarantee success on a nuclear battlefield. Nuclear weapons are uniquely devastating, and no level of preparedness can fully ready the force for nuclear employment. Nonetheless, if the Army prepares for nuclear war and is proficient at fighting through a potential nuclear attack, the Army has a plausible chance to continue fighting and contribute to the broader war effort. Furthermore, such proficiency may diminish the effect of nuclear weapons during a crisis. For instance, Russia might be less inclined to use a nuclear weapon if it doubts that would substantially impair U.S. conventional operations.

To be sure, such a strategy will encounter resistance from both civilian and military leaders. Specifically, opponents will argue that implementing these measures will be difficult and expensive. Indeed, efforts to survey and harden Army units deploying downrange will be costly. Studies indicate that retrofitting a system could cost over 10 percent of the platform’s base cost. However, cost-effective practices can be achieved through prudent design practices. For example, instead of hardening an entire platform, priority should be given to the most critical systems, like programable read-only memory and application-specific integrated circuits in the fire control systems, navigation aids, and engine functions. This approach could be augmented by integrating modern commercial off-the-shelf electronics that are already hardened. Recently, modern electronics have become susceptible to natural upset events in the United States, prompting commercial developers to incorporate their own hardening standards. The Army should focus on procuring components from these companies during the surveillance and hardening process to reduce costs further.

Second, some will argue that nuclear training requirements will detract from conventional readiness. Leaders inevitably must prioritize training on the assigned mission and will avoid training that diminishes the efficiency and effectiveness of regular operations. Fortunately, Army leaders do not need to find more time on the training calendar to implement nuclear battlefield training. Much of the training is already incorporated into current training exercises — it is just poorly supervised and lacks spot-checking by leaders. Stronger emphasis from top-level leadership can instill the discipline necessary for such training requirements and alleviate any plausible constraints nuclear training might pose on other training objectives.

Conclusion
The return of nuclear weapons as a potential tool for warfare means the Army should train to operate in a nuclear environment. Russia’s willingness to threaten nuclear escalation during the war in Ukraine, coupled with NATO’s continued reliance on the Army’s brigade combat teams on its eastern front, suggests these troops may face the stark reality of combat operations in a nuclear setting. While the Army sidelined nuclear combat training following the Cold War, the force can quickly regain the initiative by overhauling its doctrine, revisiting hardening standards, and empowering leaders at lower echelons to exercise disciplined initiative. Failure to adapt to these evolving dynamics will diminish the force’s effectiveness and elevate the risk of nuclear escalation.
Michael P. Losacco is an analyst at Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc. and previously served as an armor officer in the U.S. Army. The views expressed in the article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of Systems Planning and Analysis Inc., the Department of Defense, the U.S. armed services, or the U.S. government.
Image: Photo from the U.S. National Archives and Records Administration via Wikimedia Commons


Train, Harden, Sustain: Maintaining the Army’s Lethality in the Nuclear Shadow - War on the Rocks
 

jward

passin' thru
twz.com
Unprecedented U.S. Hypersonic Weapon Test In West Pacific Appears Imminent



Signs are growing that the U.S. Air Force is about to conduct another live-fire test of its AGM-183A Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon hypersonic missile, or ARRW, but this time staged from Guam.

Last week, the service showed off a live AGM-183A under the wing of a B-52H bomber at Andersen Air Force Base on the highly strategic U.S. Pacific island territory, stating it was there for show and tell of sorts with deployed B-52 crews. The event was peculiar and as noted in The War Zone's initial reporting on it, a test of the weapon from Guam seemed like a better explanation for it being sent there. This would be a first-of-its-kind show of force, aimed primarily at sending signals to China, and raises questions about the Air Force's previously stated plans to cancel ARRW.

The Air Force first revealed that it had brought a live AGM-183A to Guam as part of a brief news story about a "hypersonic weapon familiarization training" event at Andersen on February 27. In response to queries from The War Zone last week, the service declined to confirm or deny it had any plans to stage a live-fire ARRW test from the island.
The live AGM-184A ARRW missile seen under the wing of a B-52H bomber at Andersen Air Force Base on Guam on February 27, 2024. USAF

"The Air Force has not conducted a live-fire ARRW missile test recently," an Air Force spokesperson told The War Zone earlier today.

However, there are clear indications that such a test is imminent.

Observers have noted that publicly available warning notices to aviators and mariners that went into effect over the weekend point to a U.S. test of an air-launched weapon over the Western Pacific sometime this week. The alerts create a path that ends at the Reagan Test Site at Kwajalein Atoll, thousands of miles to the east of Guam, as can be seen in the social media posts below.

The different alert areas would align with how ARRW, which consists primarily of a large rocket booster and unpowered hypersonic boost-glide vehicle on top, functions. The rocket is used to get the entire missile to an optimal altitude and speed, after which the boost-glide vehicle is released. The expended booster and the nose cone then fall away.
A rendering of an ARRW missile depicting it right before the release of the hypersonic-boost-glide vehicle in its nose. Lockheed Martin

Once released, the boost-glide vehicle follows a relatively shallow, atmospheric flight path to its target at hypersonic speeds, defined as anything above Mach 5. The vehicle also has a high degree of maneuverability and has the ability to make multiple course changes along the way and do so erratically. All of this makes the weapon difficult to detect and track, reducing the amount of time defenders have to react and otherwise presenting significant challenges.
A graphic offering a general look at the differences in flight trajectory between a traditional ballistic missile, an unpowered hypersonic boost-glide vehicle like ARRW, and an air-breathing hypersonic cruise missile. GAO

The Reagan Test Site is a major U.S. military missile test range that is routinely used to support the testing of very long-range munitions, including hypersonic weapons like ARRW. Portions of the overall test complex on Kwajalein's Roi-Namur island recently suffered significant damage due to a confluence of factors that produced a surge of enormous waves, as you can read more about here.

Publicly available online flight trackers provide additional evidence of an impending ARRW test. Flight tracking data shows at least two, and possibly three, specially modified High Altitude Observatory (HALO) Gulfstream business jets have been operating from Guam. The HALO aircraft have been used to support ARRW tests in the past.

Various other specialized aircraft and ships are routinely used to collect imagery and other data and otherwise monitor major weapon tests at the Reagan Test Site. There are also a variety of ground-based sensors installed around Kwajalein Atoll. The M/V Pacific Collector, one of the vessels the U.S. military has available to support missile testing, was observed leaving Honolulu, Hawaii on February 24, but its present location is unknown.

In recent years, the U.S. military has been working to significantly improve and expand its hypersonic weapons-focused testing infrastructure, including through the acquisition of modified RQ-4 Global Hawk drones. Those uncrewed aircraft are part of a larger program called Skyrange that you can learn more about here and in the video below.

Given the scope of testing that occurs at the Reagan Test Site, there is the possibility, albeit somewhat remote, that all of this is in support of something other than ARRW test. At the same time, it would be an unusual expenditure of resources to bring one of what is understood to be a very small number of live AGM-183As out to Guam just for a familiarization training engagement. The fact that the exact assets and airspace warnings needed for an ARRW test makes it hard to imagine this is something else. The Air Force also told The War Zone last week that it only has one full end-to-end live-fire ARRW launch left to conduct as part of its currently planned test program.
Another live AGM-183A seen under the wing of a B-52H bomber at a training event at Edwards Air Force Base in California in 2023. USAF

It has been pointed out that the rough distance between Guam and mainland China is some 1,864 miles (3,000 kilometers) and that, based on the warning notices, the AGM-183A missile and its boost-glide vehicle payload could cover a distance of nearly 1,336 miles (2,150 kilometers) after launch. The B-52H carrying the missile would appear to have to fly thousands of miles east first to a release point, which would also be reflective of a real operational mission.
A rendering of a B-52 bomber launching an AGM-183A missile. Lockheed Martin
B-52H bombers at Andersen Air Force Base on Guam. USAF

Such a test would be the first time, at least that we know of, that the U.S. military has demonstrated a real hypersonic weapon capability in the Western end of the Pacific. It would be an unprecedented show of force in the region that would carry strategic messaging for potential adversaries, particularly China, and allies and partners alike.

By most estimates, U.S. hypersonic weapons are set to be very expensive and only available in small numbers. In turn, the expectation is that they will be reserved for very high-value and heavily defended targets, including major air defense and other command and control nodes. This would be a particularly valuable capability to have in a future high-end conflict, such as one in the Pacific against China.
DF-17 mockups on parade in Beijing in 2019. China Military

All of this raises important questions about the future of ARRW.

"The AGM-183 ARRW is currently in the operational test phase of development," an Air Force spokesperson told The War Zone last week. "A production decision has not yet been made."

This is a small, but significant change from how the Air Force phrased its plans for ARRW, which has had a spotty testing record to date, nearly a year ago now. "The Air Force does not currently intend to pursue follow-on procurement of ARRW once the prototyping program concludes," Andrew Hunter, Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, said in written testimony submitted for a House Armed Services Committee hearing on March 29, 2023. Despite ARRW's testing history, this came as something of a surprise at the time, given that this missile had long been touted as being set to be the U.S. military's first operational hypersonic weapon.
An undated picture of another live AGM-183A missile at an unknown location. DOT&E

The Air Force's stated plan at that time was to refocus resources on the separate development of an air-breathing hypersonic cruise missile under the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM) program. There were already signs that the service's hypersonic priorities were in flux again by the end of last year. In an interview published in December 2023, Assistant Secretary Hunter told DefenseScoop that no particular category of hypersonic weapon had been "ruled out" and that there were "challenges" and "risks" associated with HACM.
A rendering from Raytheon, which is currently on contract from the Air Force to develop HACM, of an air-breathing hypersonic cruise missile. Raytheon

The most recent annual report on ARRW from the Pentagon's Office of the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation, or DOT&E, released earlier this year, also mentioned plans for an "operational demonstration." DOT&E said the purpose of this would be "to assess the operational capabilities and limitations of the system."

All this being said, it remains to be seen whether or not the Air Force will actually carry out a live-fire ARRW test from Guam. Even if that is the plan, there is the potential for it to be scrubbed for any number of reasons. As pointed out earlier, the missile has a checkered testing history.

Still, there are mounting indications that ARRW's future may not be as bleak as it seemed at this same time last year. Signs strongly pointing to an imminent and highly symbolic live-fire end-to-end test of an AGM-183A from a B-52 launched out of Guam only add to the evidence that the missile's fortunes may be changing, if they haven't already.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use......

Unmanned

Drones, robotic tech pose threat to US nuclear security, general says​

By Colin Demarest
Mar 4, 11:52 AM

The ballooning use of unmanned technologies including drones has consequences for the U.S. nuclear stockpile and associated infrastructure, according to the leader of Strategic Command.

Militaries and extremist groups around the world are deploying drones and other robotic technology to collect intelligence, aid targeting and even attack from relative safety. Learning how to intercept and neutralize them has quickly become a priority for Defense Department officials, who are monitoring skirmishes across Ukraine and the Greater Middle East.

The proliferation of sophisticated uncrewed systems “poses a challenge to the department and our nation’s nuclear enterprise,” Air Force Gen. Anthony Cotton said in his 2024 Strategic Posture Statement, which was sent to Congress on Feb. 29. The matter is further complicated by an “accelerating technological race with our adversaries,” namely Russia and China, he said.

Cotton’s command, headquartered at Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska, oversees the U.S. nuclear arsenal and supports electromagnetic operations and missile threat assessment.

STRATCOM in 2022 and 2023 tested counter-drone weaponry to better understand its effectiveness and inform future investments, Cotton said in his statement. He did not disclose results.

So-called “no drone zones” were established years ago at military bases and nuclear weapons sites, including where parts are made and maintained. A provision in the 2017 National Defense Authorization Act empowered the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration to protect its facilities from drones considered hazardous to safety or security.

The zones cover sensitive compounds such as Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, where nuclear-weapon cores known as pits are expected to be manufactured; the Y-12 National Security Complex in Tennessee, where uranium-processing facilities are being built; and the Nevada National Security Site, where subcritical experiments and nonproliferation research are conducted.

NNSA leadership in December visited the Nevada site, where they were shown counter-unmanned aerial system technologies.

“These capabilities are applicable across all of NNSA’s sites,” Frank Rose, the administration’s deputy, said in a statement at the time. “We are developing the tools we need not only to counter the UAS of today but also to defend against evolving threats.”

Among the equipment showcased was the Anduril Industries-made Anvil. Anvil drones zip toward a target on a collision path with the goal of knocking threats out of the sky. An explosive variant dubbed Anvil-M offers the same sort of countermeasure, but instead relies on a fire-control module and munitions payload.

Rose was also pictured in front of a screen displaying Anduril’s command-and-control Lattice software.

About Colin Demarest
Colin Demarest is a reporter at C4ISRNET, where he covers military networks, cyber and IT. Colin previously covered the Department of Energy and its National Nuclear Security Administration — namely Cold War cleanup and nuclear weapons development — for a daily newspaper in South Carolina. Colin is also an award-winning photographer.
 

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France, Germany, UK planned to censure Iran at UN nuclear meet but won't becasue...​

FP StaffMarch 4, 2024, 23:26:39 IST
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The so-called E3 group, which consists of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, had originally intended to condemn Iran for its lack of cooperation with the agency and had begun to draft a resolution, but they ultimately decided against it.

For fear of escalating geopolitical tensions, Western nations will not censure Iran for its lack of cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog at its Board of Governors meeting on Monday, according to diplomats.

In confidential quarterly reports obtained by AFP, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated last week that Tehran’s cooperation with the agency continued to be inadequate on a number of unresolved nuclear issues.

These include extending its nuclear activities, preventing senior inspectors from entering the country, and turning off agency surveillance tools used to track Iran’s nuclear program.

According to diplomats, the so-called E3 group, which consists of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, had originally intended to condemn Iran for its lack of cooperation with the agency and had begun to draft a resolution, but they ultimately decided against it.

“The reports were very bad… There would be very good reasons (for a resolution) but because of the overall geopolitical picture with a lot of other dividing issues like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, we decided it was not the right timing,” a senior diplomat said.

“We need to maintain a strong and coherent board,” the diplomat added.

The United States was not in favour of submitting a resolution critical of Iran for fear of further aggravating Middle East tensions ahead of presidential elections in November.

“We remain committed to a diplomatic process but there is really no prospect before 2025, with this enormous US election question hovering,” another diplomat said.

Since November 2022, the board members have refrained from tabling a resolution.

On the first day of this week’s Board of Governors meeting on Monday, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi reiterated his concerns about the potential risks of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, while decrying “loose talk” about it.

Acting and former Iranian officials have recently boasted about the country’s nuclear capabilities.

“I don’t have any information that Iran is making a nuclear weapon. But I hear what they say and I ask questions,” Grossi told a press conference, referring to those recent statements.

Asked about Iran’s nuclear weapons capability on February 12, the former chief of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, Ali Akbar Salehi, claimed that the country had met “all the thresholds of nuclear science and technology”.

“What does a car need? It needs a chassis, an engine, a steering wheel, a gearbox – we have made them all, but each one for its own,” he said.

Grossi on Monday insisted that he takes statements from Iranian officials “very seriously”.

“Iran is the only country that does not have a nuclear weapon that is enriching at 60 percent and is accumulating uranium enriched at 60 percent,” Grossi said.

Enriching uranium to up to 60 percent is a short step away from enriching to the 90 percent needed to build a bomb.

The threshold is well above the 3.67 percent permitted under the Iran nuclear deal.

Iran has gradually broken away from its commitments made under the nuclear deal after the United States unilaterally withdrew from it in 2018 under then president Donald Trump.

EU-mediated efforts to revive the deal, which would have brought Washington back on board and Iran back into compliance, collapsed in the summer of 2022.

With inputs from AFP
 

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ECONLIB ARTICLES
Mar 4 2024
ARTICLE

Why Protect a Rich South Korea from a Nuclear North Korea?​

0

By Doug Bandow​


As if Washington was not busy enough internationally, serious Korea analysts wonder if Northeast Asia could erupt in flames. North Korea is rewriting its constitution to drop plans for peaceful reunification with the Republic of Korea, declaring the South to be the North’s “primary foe and invariable principal enemy.” Worse, Pyongyang celebrated the approach of Christmas by staging another intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test, its fifth in just one year. Let’s be clear at the outset, ICBMs serve only one purpose for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK): to target the U.S. homeland with a credible nuclear threat and deterrent.

Not long-ago Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un was writing “love letters” to President Donald Trump and working to warm up relations with the South. However, after the failed Hanoi summit in February 2019, Kim retreated, essentially ending dialogue with the United States and the Republic of Korea (ROK). The Biden administration’s efforts to restart talks have gone nowhere, as Kim accelerated his missile development program, reinforced ties with China, and revived a once moribund relationship with Russia. In mid-December Washington and Seoul felt it necessary to warn the DPRK that a nuclear attack “is unacceptable and will result in the end of” Kim’s regime.

Although minuscule by Chinese and Russian standards, North Korea’s nuclear arsenal may soon raise Cold War dilemmas when it comes to establishing deterrence. America’s and South Korea’s overwhelming military superiority makes Pyongyang’s forces vulnerable to a preventative or preemptive strike. To the extent that Kim believes his forces are essentially “use it or lose it,” he will be tempted to launch if he believes an allied attack might be in the offing. The result would be catastrophic.

Writing about the Soviet Union, Thomas Schelling applied game theory to the international nuclear standoff. As if the duelists, as he envisioned them, “were assured of living long enough to shoot back with unimpaired aim, there would be no advantage in jumping the gun and little reason to fear that the other would try it.” Thus, he suggested, governments should protect weapons before people. In the same way, today’s national antagonists should be wary of seeking first strike and regime decapitation capabilities. Doing so might precipitate the very war everyone wants to avoid. As with the DPRK.

“Why is North Korea America’s problem? Such is the price Americans pay for what is known in Washington as ‘global leadership.'”

All of which is a good reason to ask: Why is North Korea America’s problem? Such is the price Americans pay for what is known in Washington as “global leadership.”

For most of America’s existence events in Pyongyang didn’t matter much. The Korean kingdom was famed as a “shrimp among whales,” helplessly buffeted as the Chinese, Japanese, and Russian empires wrestled for influence, resources, and territory. After Tokyo’s victory over the dying Qing dynasty in 1895, the Korean peninsula came under Japan’s sway. With Tokyo headed to catastrophic defeat a half century later Washington and Moscow agreed to occupy the peninsula, temporarily dividing it along the 38th parallel. As the Cold War went into deep freeze, however, the border hardened, and two competing Korean states emerged in 1948.

The Truman administration (1944-53) believed the peninsula to be of minimal strategic value—a judgment which even General Douglas MacArthur shared—and withdrew U.S. military forces from the South. Washington also refused to provide Seoul with heavy weapons, given then President Syngman Rhee’s threats to march north and forcibly reunify the peninsula. In the North Moscow chose Kim Il-sung, who had fought against the Japanese, as local frontman. Possessing a ruthless will to rule, he took control and convinced Joseph Stalin to approve an invasion of the South. Launched in June 1950, the conflict drew in the United States and then China, ending in an armistice in July 1953. Washington agreed to a “mutual” defense treaty with and left a troop garrison in the ROK, both of which remain more than seven decades later.

In the early years South Korea’s survival depended on U.S. support. Seoul was an impoverished, unstable dictatorship. Only under President, formerly General, Park Chung-hee’s authoritarian rule in the 1960s did the South begin its economic take-off. His assassination in 1979 led to an equally repressive reign under another general, Chun Doo-hwan. By then South Korea was far ahead of the North economically. And there was little reason to believe that either Moscow or Beijing would support another North Korean invasion. This would have been a good time to shift defense responsibilities to Seoul. Indeed, President Jimmy Carter (1977-81) proposed withdrawing American forces, but his idea triggered wailing, gnashing of teeth, and rending of garments on a Biblical scale in both Seoul and Washington. Even members of Carter’s own administration resisted.

Although incoming President Ronald Reagan (1981-89) reversed Carter’s policy, it was the end of the Cold War that would bring change to the Korean peninsula. Why could not a democracy with twice the population and 30, 40, and eventually 50-times the economic strength of its antagonist defend itself? Publicly a South Korean official declared that his nation could not spend more on the military since it had education and health care needs, apparently assuming the United States did not. Privately, South Korean policymakers admitted that the question was hard for them to answer satisfactorily. And the disparity between the two Koreas only grew over the years.

Yet until Donald Trump was elected in 2016, no other U.S. official raised the question. With America wallowing in debt, why not a little burden shifting to rather than sharing with prosperous and populous allies? However, when Trump challenged the conventional wisdom, hysteria again enveloped both capitals. Proposing that a U.S. ally use its own wealth and deploy its own manpower to protect itself from foreign threats, rather than expect Americans to come rushing to its defense, was treated as sacrilege by the U.S. military-industrial-intellectual complex.

There’s no doubt that the DPRK is an unpleasant actor. Kim Il-sung consolidated power by eliminating competing factions linked with South Korean communists as well as the USSR and China. He built a personality cult eventually exceeding those of Joseph Stalin and Mao Zedong and created a totalitarian state that stood alongside Albania in arbitrary brutality. When I visited in 1992 the North appeared to be a Potemkin country. Pyongyang had an airport without airplanes, roads without cars, and streets without street signs. There were propaganda pictures, posters, and banners in every office and home as well as on every building, over every street, and in every field. Overpowering was the utter grayness with a hint of menace filling the air. Freedom of choice was reduced to choosing which of Kim’s likenesses to pin to one’s clothing. Even today, the North remains at or near the bottom of every international human rights ranking.

At least when I first visited, there was only a whisper of nuclear ambitions. But this would soon explode into a refrain of roars, spawning an international crisis and triggering a tsunami of worries, meetings, threats, deployments, agreements, and, inevitably, failures. The Clinton administration (1993-2001) considered launching military strikes, a step vehemently opposed by South Korean officials who feared such action would trigger Korean War II. When Kim died in July 1994 he was succeeded by his son, Kim Jong-il. The latter had pushed aside an uncle and younger half-brother to seize the throne. Despite his lack of revolutionary pedigree and aversion to public speaking, Kim the son would settle in as “Dear Leader,” pushing both nuclear and missile programs forward.

Kim Jong-il began thinking of the succession only after a stroke in August 2008. In turn, he selected his son Kim Jong-un over two older male siblings. But upon his death three years later, many observers believed that Kim Jong-un was likely to end up as merely one of many in a system of collective rule or even as a frontman for others. Instead, the latter proved to be no less ruthless than his grandfather, firing party grandees, disappearing military leaders, executing his uncle, and assassinating his half-brother. Bolstered by his younger sister, the ostentatiously belligerent Kim Yo-jong, the Kim dynasty appears to be in firm control to this day.

Kim Jong-un spent some time in school in Switzerland, during which he evidently gained an appreciation for both the Chicago Bulls and market-based economies. This sparked faint hope that he might be a liberalizer, as he welcomed flamboyant NBA basketball player Dennis Rodman, dabbled with economic reform, enjoyed South Korean K-Pop, showcased his attractive wife, and flirted with Donald Trump. However, after the Donald/Jong-un relationship hit the rocks, so did Kim’s liberal impulses. Today his regime jails teens caught singing the same songs once performed in concert in Pyongyang.

Unfortunately, the ruling Kim has turned his small, beleaguered state into a nuclear power, accelerating both missile and nuclear developments. The North possesses at least enough fissile material to produce 45-55 weapons. Some estimates run twice as high, but no one outside of Pyongyang knows the actual number and the regime is expanding its arsenal. At the high end, the Asan Institute for Policy Studies and Rand Corporation have warned that the DPRK could possess as many as 242 weapons before the decade’s end, which would make it a serious second rank nuclear power, ahead of the United Kingdom, India, and Pakistan.

Today, Kim is increasing the variety as well as size of his nuclear holdings. He is developing tactical nukes, as well as submarine-launched and intercontinental ballistic missiles. Moreover, the regime is threatening to strike first with nukes, suggesting a willingness to use them offensively. Last year, the Supreme People’s Assembly, Pyongyang’s rubber-stamp legislature, formally legislated North Korea’s nuclear status. Kim explained: “As long as nuclear weapons exist on Earth, and imperialism and the anti-North Korean maneuvers of the United States and its followers remain, our road to strengthening our nuclear force will never end.” Indeed, he added, his nation’s nuclear role is “irreversible.”

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Until now the potential cost of the U.S. commitment to the ROK was serious but limited. Going to war would risk military forces deployed to the peninsula but not much beyond. North Korea, not America, would be the principal battleground and bombing target. However, Pyongyang’s pairing of nuclear weapons with shorter-range missiles puts U.S. territories, interests, and allies at risk because the ICBMs under development could even reach the American homeland. Thus, in the not-too-distant future Pyongyang will be able to credibly threaten the destruction of U.S. cities. Washington’s stake in an inter-Korean conflict would become almost infinite.

Of course, with credible threat comes deterrence. The threat has never actually been a DPRK first strike. The North has never been seriously interested in attacking America. Rather, Pyongyang’s objective has been to prevent America from striking the North. In 1950 the United States intervened after North Korea’s invasion of the South, driving the former’s forces north and overrunning most of the DPRK. Then Beijing intervened to save Kim Il-sung’s reign. Today China is unlikely to fight America over North Korea. Instead, the North’s new deus ex machina could be the threat of nuclear retaliation if Washington makes preparations to destroy the Kim dynasty. As Thomas Schelling might point out, the U.S. president can now ill afford to play geopolitical chicken. After all, in that case nothing would be more important than preventing the incineration of American cities. Collaterally, the US-ROK alliance would be under extreme pressure and might not survive.

Concern over the viability of so-called extended deterrence has created a cottage industry of analysts and consultants, reassuring Seoul that Washington solons are truly willing to risk their nation’s destruction to protect the ROK. In April of 2023, this effort culminated in the “Washington Declaration,” an outgrowth of President Joe Biden’s summit with South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol. As the two presidents observed: “The ROK has full confidence in U.S. extended deterrence commitments and recognizes the importance, necessity, and benefit of its enduring reliance on the U.S. nuclear deterrent.”1Of course, Yoon could hardly say anything else, but every step in North Korean nuclear development makes the statement less believable.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the vast majority of South Koreans express support for developing their own nuclear weapons. Elite political support lags but has been increasing. Indeed, last January President Yoon Suk-yeol observed that “if the issue becomes more serious, we could acquire our own nuclear weapons, such as deploying tactical nuclear weapons here in ROK.”2

No doubt, such a course would set off geopolitical tremors. Washington would have to consider allowing another exception, like India, to its nonproliferation policy. Beijing would be unhappy and might strike back politically and/or economically. Many Japanese likely would want to match the ROK and other nations, perhaps Australia, might also consider the possibility.

Despite such consequences, a South Korean bomb still might be better than the alternative. After all, better the South than America be at risk to defend the South. The possibility of Seoul going nuclear would encourage Beijing to put more pressure on the DPRK to restrain the latter’s nuclear activities. Moreover, a South Korean nuke would also help constrain the PRC, should it grow more aggressive.

Nevertheless, this possibility horrifies U.S. policymakers, who seem passionately devoted to the policy of risking Honolulu, Los Angeles, Chicago, and perhaps many more American cities to protect Seoul. On few issues is there such unspoken unanimity, with alternative views dismissed out of hand. Why are Washington solons so determined to fight a nuclear war on the ROK’s behalf?

Critics insist that the United States shouldn’t abandon its policy of complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement/disarmament (CVID), arguing that North Korea shouldn’t possess nuclear weapons at all. Unfortunately, it has produced nukes, and by now it has scores of them. South Africa remains as the only nation that has ever disarmed, and it had only six warheads to dismantle. Virtually no one in the policy community believes that Pyongyang, absent regime collapse or defeat, would follow suit. Wishing won’t make it so. Preserving the possibility requires sounder strategy.

As for nonproliferation policy, the challenge is posed by the North’s arsenal, not Washington’s recognition that the North has an arsenal. Seoul and Tokyo might be unhappy if the United States formally abandoned its denuclearization efforts, but nothing else would change. What amounts to the Ostrich option, pursuing the impossible while hindering a long-time democratic ally from creating its own deterrent, is no solution. The better option would be a policy of de facto arms control, negotiating to limit the North’s nuclear program. It would be a second-best solution with unpredictable geopolitical consequences. However, so far everything else has failed. Although the Biden administration remains committed to denuclearization, Trump is reportedly considering the arms control strategy if he wins.

Setting more reasonable ambitions wouldn’t prevent Pyongyang from eventually disarming if it desired to do so. However, even a change in regime wouldn’t necessarily lead the North to abandon its nukes. The ancient Korean monarchy long suffered the ill attention of its neighbors. In contrast, the recent Kim dynasty ruthlessly defended its independence, skillfully playing Moscow and Beijing against one another. Kim Jong-un likely saw Washington as a third, and conveniently distant, power to bring into the mix.

Indeed, China’s Xi Jinping ignored Kim while courting South Korea until the announcement of the planned Trump-Kim summit; afterwards Xi and Kim met five times, including once in Pyongyang. Notably, they have not previously met since 2019, when the US-DPRK relationship tanked. It appears that Xi was afraid of being dealt out of the game by Washington. More recently Chinese officials have grown nervous about the much tighter relationship between North Korea and Russia, highlighted by the former’s weapons sales to Moscow. The possession of nuclear weapons strengthens Pyongyang’s position against its nominal friends as well as against the United States.

Ultimately, Americans will be safer if Washington steps back from the Korean imbroglio. The United States had special responsibilities toward the peninsula in 1950, having divided the peninsula and refused to arm South Korea, despite the North’s threats. Moreover, concern that the ROK’s fall would have undermined Europe’s defense, though overstated, was real. Today Washington’s military dependent has grown up. The Korean standoff is growing more dangerous, especially so, game theory suggests, as Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal expands in size while remaining vulnerable to attempted allied preemption. The United States remains the world’s most powerful nation, but with rapidly aging population, expanding social programs, and burgeoning national debt, Washington no longer can afford to provide military welfare to the world. The military budget is the price of America’s foreign policy, rising to well above the benefits received from attempting to micro-manage the globe. South Korea would be a good place to start shifting defense responsibilities back on to allied states where it belongs.

For more on these topics, see

  • “Life, Liberty, and M*A*S*H,” by Thomas Firey. Library of Economics and Liberty, Nov. 1, 2020.
  • Podcast episode
    Barry Weingast on the Violence Trap. EconTalk.
  • Farewell Address, by George Washington. Online Library of Liberty.
Which is the way it was always supposed to be. The Constitution tasks the federal government with the nation’s defense, by which the Founders meant this nation—its territory, people, and liberties. In his Farewell Address, George Washington warned against “a passionate attachment of one nation for another,” which by “infusing into one the enmities of the other, betrays the former into a participation in the quarrels and wars of the latter without adequate inducement or justification.” This warning has taken on added importance with the spread of nuclear weapons and consequent increase in dangers of unnecessary wars.


Footnotes​

[1] Washington Declaration, April 26, 2023. Whitehouse.gov.
[2] Dasl Yoon, “South Korean President Says Country Could Develop Nuclear Weapons,” Wall Street Journal, January 12, 2023, https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-...try-could-develop-nuclear-weapons-11673544196,


* Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, specializing in foreign policy and civil liberties. He worked as special assistant to President Ronald Reagan and editor of the political magazine Inquiry. He writes regularly for leading publications such as Fortune magazine, National Interest, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Times.

This article was edited by Features Editor Ed Lopez.
 

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CONTAINING GLOBAL RUSSIA​

MICHAEL KIMMAGE AND HANNA NOTTE
MARCH 4, 2024
COMMENTARY

“It is clear that the main element of any United States policy toward the Soviet Union,” George Kennan wrote in 1947, “must be that of long-term, patient but firm and vigilant containment of Russian expansive tendencies.” When Kennan devised this famous sentence, he did not only have Europe in mind: Asia and the Middle East were catalysts of early Cold War contestation. Soviet expansive tendencies proceeded from the universal sway of communism and from the legacy of the Russian empire, which had been active in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. In 2024, with Russian expansive tendencies once again in evidence, the global thrust of Kennan’s thinking is as salient as his recommendation that U.S. policy cohere around the idea of containment.

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine was meant to prove that the United States and its allies do not write the rules internationally. To prove this point in Europe, the heart of the liberal international order, is to hasten the advent of a post-Western order globally. Russia has recalibrated its entire foreign policy to fit the needs of a long struggle. Prior to 2022, Russia was already expanding its trade and political relations with non-Western countries and tangling with its Western counterparts in international fora. Since 2022, Russia has dramatically expanded these pre-existing trend lines, while improvising at every turn.

The four pillars of Russia’s global foreign policy are self-preservation, decompartmentalization, fragmentation, and integration. Russia has secured lifelines for its economy and defense enterprises, while navigating to retain its military influence outside of Europe — successfully in Syria and the Sahel and less successfully in the South Caucasus. On a host of policy issues, Russia has abandoned compartmentalization with Western states. Waging a war of narratives, gumming up legacy multilateral institutions, and pushing for the de-dollarization of international finance, a diplomatically hyperactive Russia has sought to fragment the existing international order. Russia has also been integrating partners into clubs that exclude Western states (like the BRICS alliance of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and working with alliances that are openly anti-Western (like the new Alliance of the Sahel States).

Russia’s progress has been substantial enough in these four domains to give it the upper hand in the war and to place the Russian economy on a non-Western foundation. Russia’s successes have not just been a matter of savviness: the Kremlin has benefited from the West’s many mistakes in rallying global public opinion. At the same time, Russia’s redirected foreign policy generates costs and risks to the Kremlin. For Russia, much depends on the war. Victory in Ukraine would prove that Russia is an autonomous global actor capable of thwarting formidable adversaries. Should the war linger indefinitely or should Ukraine surge forward, Russia’s extreme anti-Westernism may start to look short-sighted, accident-prone, and self-defeating.

The United States and its European allies should respond to global Russia with a multi-part containment strategy. One task is analytical: to connect the dots in Russia’s global foreign policy. Another is to confront Russia selectively — where its activities are especially malign. A third is to define its own global outreach positively and not simply as a default strategy for opposing Russia (or China). Most importantly, the United States should help Ukraine to frustrate Russia’s European war aims. These aims are central to Russia’s global aspirations.

Self-Preservation

To deter Russia in 2022, the West had bet on markets. It had counted on its own centrality to the worlds of finance, technological innovation, and commerce, hoping that the threat of massive sanctions would restrain Russian President Vladimir Putin. Once the war began, the West wagered that Russia would be so damaged by sanctions that either its war machine would malfunction or a frustrated population would curtail Putin’s ambitions. An undeterred Russia preserved lifelines for its economy and military machine, leveraging an already robust relationship with China and many other bilateral ties in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. Russia found markets for its energy products in Asia and reliable sources of weaponry in Iran and North Korea. Turkey, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus emerged as conduits for the “roundabout trade” of sanctioned goods into Russia.

For Putin, Russia’s economic break with the West may not have been an opportunity cost of the war. It may have been one of the war’s strategic objectives. In the 1990s, Russia’s deep dependence on the West hemmed in its foreign policy. Because Russia relied on the West for loans and for investment, then-President Boris Yeltsin could do nothing to halt NATO expansion. Having shown in 2014 and again in 2022 that Russia’s economy can ride out Western sanctions, Putin has reduced the efficacy of future Western sanctions, a virtuous circle for him. Russia’s growing reliance on Iran and North Korea, often dismissed as technological backwaters, has given it real-time advantages vis-á-vis Ukraine.

While pouring resources into Ukraine, Russia has not stood still elsewhere. In Syria, Russian troops relinquished several positions to groups affiliated with their partner Iran after February 2022. At the same time, Moscow pushed for Syria’s normalization with Arab states and Turkey, hoping to attract the reconstruction funding for Syria that Russia itself cannot provide. Both measures have been aimed at protecting Russia’s influence. In Africa, Russia has similarly ensured its staying power, most recently by restructuring and rebranding the Wagner private military company into the Africa Corps, which the Ministry of Defense holds on a tight leash. Only in the South Caucasus, where Russia’s nominal ally Armenia mourns the forced exodus of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, has the war in Ukraine visibly dented its military clout.

Decompartmentalization

Before 2022, compartmentalization in Russia’s relations with the West was already an endangered practice. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the United States had suspended cooperation with Russia on a range of issues — to punish it and to elicit a change in Russian foreign policy. Yet Moscow and Western capitals managed to insulate areas of critical interest from their mutual grievances, continuing to talk about the future of nuclear arms control, the Arctic, or ways to bring much-needed humanitarian aid to Syria.

With the 2022 war, Russia has become much more categorical. Moscow suspended its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction (New START) Treaty and rejected multiple overtures from the Joseph Biden administration to resume discussions on nuclear arms control. With this, Russia is sending several signals: that something resembling a state of war obtains between Russia and the West; that for Russia to give an inch on any one issue might mean undermining itself on other issues; and that winning the war in Ukraine is a priority far above the value that cooperation on arms control, climate change, or the Arctic might provide for Russia.

Putin’s willingness to jettison any collaborative agenda with the West creates dangers for Russia itself. Arms control, not to mention setting global norms for climate change, is an effort that makes Russia safer and improves Russians’ quality of life. Having emboldened (near-nuclear) Iran and (nuclear) North Korea, the Kremlin cannot be certain that these countries will forever be ruled by regimes friendly to Moscow. A medium-sized economy, Russia does not have endless resources to compete in a multipolar nuclear arms race — one that its own policies may well be fueling. Just as compartmentalization had once contained conflicts between Russia and the West, a global escalation with the West could rebound against Russia. Should current tensions in the Middle East ignite an all-out war, for example, Russia would struggle to protect its presence in Syria.

Fragmentation

Ever since Foreign Minister Yevgeniy Primakov’s celebration of “multipolarity” in the mid-1990s, post–Cold War Russia has taken issue with the West’s global dominance. In the years leading up to the 2022 invasion, Russia had chipped away at support for existing multilateral institutions and regimes. It propagated a narrative about a dysfunctional “rules-based international order,” Russia’s derogatory reference to presumed Western hegemony. For years, Russian diplomats lamented that Western states were bending the rules in organizations like the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

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Since 2022, Russia has upped the ante. Moscow has intelligently exploited global discontent with the West. By arguing that the West has been invading sovereign countries and redrawing the map since time immemorial, Russia has deflected criticism of its war against Ukraine. Hamas’ attack against Israel on Oct. 7 and its aftereffects have given Moscow new tools of persuasion. While the West backs Israel’s assault on Gaza, Russia has been watching from the sidelines. It can amplify a global outrage that would be proliferating with or without Russia. Without a blueprint, Russia jumps on the West’s travails whenever and wherever they materialize.

Russia has also grown more obstructionist in multilateral institutions. Amid heightened acrimony at U.N. agencies, Russian diplomats have been creative in causing paralysis, tabling texts to compete with Western-backed resolutions and causing procedural hiccups. Russian diplomats have used the U.N. rulebook “as if they were sleeping with it under their pillow,” according to one official. At the U.N. Security Council, the fragile modus vivendi that had still held between Russia and Western states in 2022 also became more precariousover time. The paralysis cannot be blamed on Russia alone: Western diplomats took their grievances with Russia over Ukraine to each and every forum, alienating counterparts from the Global South. Post-invasion demands by Western states that the Global South fall in line with their position on Ukraine have backfired spectacularly.

Finally, Russia’s intent to fragment Western-led international systems includes international finance. Hit with unprecedented Western sanctions and cut off from the financial messaging infrastructure of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, Russia has embraced the idea of de-dollarization, although Russia’s reliance on the yuan and rupee has come with problems. While the Kremlin dreams about the BRICS moving toward a single currency, practical obstacles remain, and Russia has failed to induce other countries to bypass the U.S. dollar. Here, Russia’s push for fragmentation has made little headway thus far.

Integration

The most confounding of Russia’s global projects is the integration of non-Western structures of partnership and allegiance. Moscow has labored to expand both the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, cheering growing integration among what Russian diplomats term the “global majority.” As chair of the recently enlarged BRICS, Russia is planning to host over 200 events this year, including a ministerial in Nizhny Novgorod and a summit in Kazan.

Moscow is also exploring less institutionalized forms of integration. At Russia’s behest, synergies are emergingamong constellations of states that are hostile to the West. Russia’s ally Belarus and Iran are strengthening their defense cooperation. This spring, Russia will conduct routine joint naval drills with China and Iran, having also proposed similar three-way exercises with China and North Korea. China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia are attempting to tie down the American Gulliver in intersecting crises and war zones. Synchronization is not necessarily gamed out in advance, but it is already having a cumulative effect. The United States faces the prospect of simultaneous security crises in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East.

In the Sahel, a region that continues to tip toward military dictatorships, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger signed a tripartite mutual defense pact in the fall. Amid their joint departure from the Economic Community of West African States, Moscow signaled its interest in enhancing cooperation with the Alliance of Sahel States. After recent successes in fighting in Mali, the Africa Corps has been invited into Burkina Faso and may well emerge in Niger. Successfully branding itself as the only external force serious about fighting terrorism, Russia is creating a new axis of partners.

Closer to home, Russia’s integration projects have foundered. For decades, Russia has been the leading force in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a military alliance made up of post-Soviet states that was established in 1992. In January 2022, the treaty had its moment in the spotlight when it successfully performed a regime maintenance operation amid protests in Kazakhstan, but since the invasion of Ukraine, it has failed to impress. When its members Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rekindled their longstanding border dispute in September 2022, the Collective Security Treaty Organization was unable to mediate. In the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it also played a muted role. An irritated Armenian government eventually turned to France and India for arms and held joint military exercises with the United States. In the economic sphere, Russia’s regional integration efforts have performed somewhat better. Amid the flourishing of Russia’s roundabout trade, the Eurasian Economic Union — designed to pursue a common market among Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia — witnessed a re-entanglement of business elites after February 2022.

A Balance Sheet

When Russia failed to take Kyiv and was pushed back in eastern and southern Ukraine in late 2022, low expectations crystallized for Russian foreign policy. The U.S. government identified Russia’s “strategic defeat” as the end state of its Ukraine policy. This optimism was premature — not just for the military configurations on Ukrainian territory, which have gradually begun to favor Russia, but also for Russia’s redesigned statecraft. Russia has been adept at the political economy of war, at styling itself as a David taking on the American Goliath, while thus far avoiding entanglement in costly blunders outside of Europe.

The open question for Russia’s foreign policy is whether its global ambitions are coherent. They are sustainable for Russia, though dangers for the Russian economy loom on the horizon. But if Russia’s improvisatory opportunism gives it agility, it also bespeaks a certain nihilism, as if Russian foreign policy exists for the war and not the war for some larger set of policy aims. This nihilism is most pronounced in Russia’s almost obsessive anti-Westernism, which globally is always in vogue but is too abstract and too empty a position on which to build anything really solid. It also makes for a lot of strange, disparate bedfellows.

Contending with a Global Russia

To recognize the scale of the challenge Russia represents is, first and foremost, to connect the dots of its global foreign policy. To diminish Russia’s sources of self-preservation, the United States should continue to close the loopholes on sanctions. Disrupting weapons transfers from Iran and North Korea will be a tall order, but other efforts to starve Russia’s war machine are having an effect — as shown by the growing number of foreign banks that are restricting their business with Russian clients. Although Russia’s military presence outside of Europe remains modest, the United States should counter Russia’s support for malign actors in the Middle East, where possible, while buttressing partner governments in Africa to limit the further expansion of Africa Corps. Since Washington cannot (and need not) take on Moscow everywhere, it should focus on those theaters where Russian military activities risk producing the greatest negative spillover effects.

The United States should not expect Russia to return to compartmentalization any time soon. Efforts at restraining a nuclear North Korea and preventing Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold will have to be done not just without, but also in opposition to, Russia. Washington should call on Russia to return to nuclear arms control talks before New START expires in 2026, while seriously planning for the eventuality that Putin will not cooperate.

Contending with Russia’s efforts to upend the international order and to advance its own integration projects will be very difficult. Washington’s support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s irresponsible government has further degraded trust in the West, elucidating a simple lesson: The more the United States and its allies have to offer the Global South in its terms, whatever those may be, and the more respect they show to the foreign policy autonomy of those countries, the more they will expose the many points of hollowness that inform Russian foreign policy. The power of example will in every case outshine the power of argument. The same is true for the power of negative example.

Most urgent is continued support for Ukraine. If Moscow wins the war, its efforts to remake international order will accelerate. A Russia in control of Ukraine would feel more self-confident, and it would suffer from fewer resource constraints. Its appeal as a partner to non-Western states would grow, while Western credibility in Europe and elsewhere would be in ruins. Russia’s global game runs through Ukraine. That is where it must be stopped.

Hanna Notte, Ph.D., is director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and a nonresident senior associate with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Her work focuses on Russia’s foreign and security policy, the Middle East, and nuclear arms control and nonproliferation.

Michael Kimmage is a professor of history at the Catholic University of America and a senior non-resident associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. His latest book is
Collisions: The War in Ukraine and the Origins of the New Global Instability, which is due out with Oxford University Press on March 22.

 

jward

passin' thru

Pulsejet Drone Flies, Could Have Big Impact On Cost Of Future Weapons​



A Baltimore-based startup has recently flown an experimental drone powered by a pulsejet engine, a type of powerplant that has few moving parts, in contrast to a conventional turbine, offering the promise of low-cost jet performance. Previously, the company, Wave Engine Corp., received U.S. Air Force funding to develop a decoy powered by a pulsejet — a powerplant best known for its infamous use in World War II. Meanwhile, the potential for the same propulsion technology to make it into other types of drones is something we have examined in the past and is becoming even more relevant given the increasing applications for expendable types.

Wave Engine’s recent test involved a Scitor-D drone, a conventional takeoff and landing design that has a gross weight of around 100 pounds, a maximum payload of 20 pounds, and which appears to be a scaled-down copy of the A-10 attack aircraft design. The Scitor-D is part of a series of drones with external top-mounted engines, a configuration chosen to keep the vehicles simple and to minimize development and production costs.
For the demonstration flight, the drone was powered exclusively by a pulsejet developing more than 50 pounds-force of thrust (equivalent to more than 222 Newtons). The flight sequence began with a remote instant start followed by takeoff, climb-cruise, and landing.

In the wake of the test flight, Wave Engine announced its first productionized pulsejet, the J-1, also producing more than 50 pounds-force of thrust. Otherwise, the company told The War Zone that the J-1 is a lighter and more aerodynamic version of the engine used to power the Scitor-D.
Ground test of the Wave Engine J-1, its first productionized pulsejet. Wave Engine Corp.
Beyond this, the company also says it’s developed engines that can produce up to 250 pounds-force of thrust (equivalent to more than 1,112 Newtons). This would be sufficient to power a drone, missile, or aircraft with a gross weight of up to 1,000 pounds, Wave Engine says.
Wave Engine has meanwhile demonstrated “multiple” mid-air starts of its pulsejets and has operated its engines at airspeeds up to 200 mph, “limited only by the practical limits of the test facility.” Further tests of the Scitor-D are now planned, which the company says are “oriented around the continued expansion of the flight envelope and test conditions.”

The company has also demonstrated its pulsejets using various different fuels: gasoline/petrol (87 Octane), kerosene-based fuel (Jet-A/JP-8), and sustainable ethanol-based biofuel (E85).
The pulsejet-powered Scitor-D drone used in Wave Engine’s recent test. Wave Engine Corp.
In terms of fuel efficiency, the company has demonstrated thrust-specific fuel consumption (TSFC) levels under 2.0 pounds/pounds-force per hour, which it says rivals the efficiency of more complex and expensive turbine-based engines. Wave Engine combines its pulsejets with Full Authority Digital Electronic Control (FADEC), in which a computer controls engine performance, and this may well be key to achieving the stated levels of efficiency, as well as optimizing performance more generally.
While you can read more here about how pulsejets work, as Wave Engine describes, a simple explanation is that they “operate using pressure waves instead of rotating machinery. Intermittent combustion inside a hollow tube produces pressure waves that push hot gases and produce thrust.”
Pulse jet schematic. First part of the cycle: (1) air intake, mixed with fuel (2). Second part: the valve (3) closes and the ignited fuel-air mix propels the craft. Cyrille Dunant/Gregor Shapiro/Wikimedia Commons
The high speeds offered by pulsejets are also a factor in their favor, especially when compared to the propeller-based powerplants otherwise frequently found on many smaller military drones.
“We continue to push the performance and flight envelope,” said Daanish Maqbool, Wave Engine’s CEO, in response to the Scitor-D demonstration flight. “We have worked for years to harness the power of sound and fire, and we believe it is going to change the industry.”

The Scitor drone offered by Wave Engine. The company says it can fly at a speed of 200 knots for “attritable or short-duration applications, including aerial target and payload missions.” Wave Engine Corp.
The War Zone has reported in the past on the Versatile Air-Launched Platform (VALP), under which the Air Force Armament Directorate in 2021 awarded the startup a $1-million contract to develop and demonstrate a pulsejet decoy.
At the time, Wave Engine described VALP as “a multi-mission, air-launched vehicle that leverages the company’s proprietary engine technology to demonstrate high-performance, low-cost propulsion for future generations of high-performance aerial vehicles.”
Concept artwork released in 2021 showed a pair of VALPs being launched as decoys from an F-16 fighter. The pulsejet-powered decoys shown included a narrow and unusually deep forward fuselage, low-mounted swept wings, and a slender rear body possibly carrying a V-shaped tail unit.

Concept artwork shows a pair of VALP pulsejet-powered decoys launched from an F-16. Wave Engine Corp.
While it wasn’t immediately clear how the VALP was intended to be used, as we stated at the time, a decoy in this class could employ various methods to confuse enemy air defenses, including replicating the flight profiles and signatures of friendly crewed aircraft, using electronic warfare jammers, or dropping chaff and other countermeasures.
Powered air-launched decoys are already in use with the U.S. Air Force, and other operators, including the ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoy (MALD), powered by a small turbojet engine and designed to spoof enemy air defense systems. Examples of the MALD have also been supplied to Ukraine for use in its war with Russia.
Maintainers prepare to load Miniature Air-Launched Decoys, or MALDs, onto an A-10C at Volk Field Air National Guard Base, Wisconsin, in March 2022. U.S. Air National Guard photo by Tech. Sgt. Samara Taylor
Prior to VALP, Wave Engine’s pulsejets attracted interest from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), which in 2019 awarded a $3-million contract. This saw the company conduct flight demonstrations using a manned glider fitted with a pulsejet mounted above the fuselage.

A Schreder glider is tested with a Wave Engine pulsejet engine. Wave Engine Corp.
As of today, VALP has progressed to the point that “a functional aircraft now exists,” the company told us. “We are in active discussions with government and industry partners to establish the next phase of the effort.”
While VALP was said to be intended “primarily as a decoy,” as we pointed out at the time, pulsejets have the potential for various other applications as well, especially where low cost is a driving factor, including a range of drones for applications other than air-launched decoys.
Cruise missiles could make use of pulsejets — effectively updating the concept that Nazi Germany used for its V-1 flying bombs, or “buzz bombs,” which were used in the final months of World War II and used the same basic type of powerplant.

British Army soldiers examine a captured pulsejet-engined Fieseler Fi 103R Reichenberg — a piloted version of the V-1 flying bomb — in Lower Saxony, Germany, in November 1945. Photo by Chris Ware/Keystone/Hulton Archive/Getty Images
Today, and especially since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the distinction between attack drones and cruise missiles has become increasingly blurred. Indeed, were the V-1 to be fielded now it would very likely be referred to as a long-range one-way attack drone.
Regardless, it’s certainly the case that the war in Ukraine has demonstrated a demand for low-cost, long-range drones, especially those that are intended to deliver an explosive payload in an expendible fashion. Russia’s enthusiastic adoption of the Iranian-designed Shahed series of drones has been paralleled by the rapid development of various homegrown Ukrainian one-way attack drones, offering increasingly long ranges.

Terminal Autonomy
With low cost and rapid producibility being key factors behind the feasibility of these kinds of drones, the potential suitability of pulsejet engines is worth considering, provided that they can offer — as Wave Engine claims — efficiency that can rival turbine engines.
One traditional drawback of pulsejets has been their relatively high noise signature, although for a one-way attack drone that’s not necessarily such a big concern.

In the United States, as well, there has, in recent years, been a growing focus on low-cost missiles in contrast to very expensive products like the AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) series. This line of thinking has led to programs such as Gray Wolf, an Air Force program for a low-cost cruise missile, powered by a miniature turbine.
A Gray Wolf test article under the wing of an F-16. U.S. Air Force

The potential of larger numbers of air-launched munitions to be operated in networked swarms is also a growing area of interest for the U.S. military and provides another niche for lower-cost missiles, as well as decoys, working alongside more expensive precision-guided munitions such as JASSM. For applications such as this, a low-cost powerplant could also be especially attractive.
When asked about the current status of its pulsejet activities, Wave Engines told The War Zone that it is “seeing interest in our technology from the U.S. military and several foreign militaries.” Intriguingly the company also added that its “technology is currently a key component in an active U.S. Department of Defense program,” one that is separate from VALP. Further details were not provided, but it clearly indicates a broader interest in pulsejet technology within the Pentagon.

It’s unclear if we might start seeing a new generation of pulsejet engines powering drones and missiles, but with the U.S. military looking at buying large numbers of lower-cost guided weapons, the prospects could be good. If Wave Engines is successful in its goal of achieving an “order-of-magnitude reduction in the cost and complexity of jet propulsion,” then its pulsejets could have a very bright future ahead of them.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com


Pulsejet Drone Flies, Could Have Big Impact On Cost Of Future Weapons
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.......

DRONES, THE AIR LITTORAL, AND THE LOOMING IRRELEVANCE OF THE U.S. AIR FORCE​

DAVID BARNO AND NORA BENSAHEL
MARCH 7, 2024
SPECIAL SERIES - STRATEGIC OUTPOST

Today, the U.S. Air Force faces an almost-existential crisis. During the past several years, the service has been battered by the loss of its prestigious space mission to the nascent U.S. Space Force. It has also struggled to balance the continued acquisition of stunningly expensive new manned aircraft with the rapid developments in unmanned technologies, which are making pilots increasingly superfluous.

What a difference a few years makes. In 2016, we published a column entitled “The Catastrophic Success of the U.S. Air Force,” which argued that the service had completely dominated the air domain for so long that it was not fully prepared to fight a bloody war for control of the skies. But those days are long gone, thanks to the drone revolution.

The biggest problem facing the Air Force is that masses of uncrewed drones have now wrested command of the air away from manned aircraft in the skies above the modern battlefield. The drone revolution means that it will be very difficult, if not impossible, for the service to achieve air superiority in future conflicts — which has been the centerpiece of its mission for decades. Drones, not manned airplanes, now dominate the skies above ground forces fighting in Ukraine. The contested air littoral has emerged as a critical new subdomain of warfare. It stretches from the earth’s surface to several thousand feet, below the altitudes where most manned aircraft typically fly, and is now dominated by masses of drones. This is a paradigm shift of epic proportions, which will require the Air Force to fundamentally transform itself in a very short period of time.

For almost 70 years, the U.S. Air Force maintained unbroken air superiority over every battlefield on which U.S. troops fought. Yet that long streak suddenly ended on Jan. 28, when three U.S. Army soldiers were killed by an air attack — conducted not by an enemy bomber or fighter strike, but by a one-way suicide drone that attacked a U.S. base in Jordan called Tower 22. Although these soldiers undoubtedly thought that U.S. air superiority would protect them from aerial attacks, subsequent reports indicated that the base had only limited defenses against drones.

But why now? Drones have been around for decades, of course. Yet the war in Ukraine has dramatically accelerated the military use of drones in ways few of us could have predicted. Today, they fill the skies above the battlefields in numbers that were simply unimaginable two years ago, conducting vital missions in surveillance, intelligence gathering, early warning, and precision strike. They are so crucial to Ukrainian operations that President Volodymyr Zelensky has called upon his country to produce one million new drones in 2024, and he hopes to receive another million drones from NATO allies and partners this year. Ukraine flies an incredibly wide variety of drones — as many as 10,000 different types, according to one estimate. And they have to be expendable, since Ukraine reportedly loses thousands of drones each month.

The U.S. military is woefully unprepared for warfare in this newly contested subdomain of the air littoral. Needless to say, the U.S. drone inventory looks nothing at all like Ukraine’s. It is a fraction of its size and scale, focusing on small numbers of highly advanced systems. (Even the Pentagon’s highly touted Replicator initiative aims to develop only “thousands” of attritable autonomous systems in the next two years — and right now, it is far from clear that the initiative will ultimately succeed.) But even more importantly, the U.S. military today does not possess reliable counter-drone systems that can effectively protect U.S. forces against small drone attacks, much less the massed level of strikes seen daily in Ukraine. Technologies that protect against drones have failed to keep pace with the proliferation and rapidly evolving capabilities of offensive drones (reflecting a problem that we once called the U.S. military’s protection deficit disorder). As a result, U.S. ground forces have now essentially lost the protective top cover that the Air Force provided through air superiority for decades.

Countering drones in the air littoral is therefore one of the most pressing tasks facing the U.S. military, and all of the services will need to be part of the solution. Yet, as the principal service responsible for the air domain, the Air Force is arguably doing the least to address this burgeoning threat. Why? Countering inexpensive drones that can pummel U.S. forces from the air at will simply does not fit into the service’s future vision. Moreover, defeating this new aerial threat would require the service to transform much of its doctrine and platforms. Yet the Air Force remains firmly wedded to exorbitantly expensive crewed platforms that reflect its 20th-century roots and legacy — especially the F-35A fighter.

The F-35A certainly remains an important platform for high-intensity conventional warfare. But the Air Force is planning to buy 1,763 of the aircraft, which will remain in service through the year 2070. These jets, which are wholly unsuited for countering proliferated low-cost enemy drones in the air littoral, present enormous opportunity costs for the service as a whole. In a set of comments posted on LinkedIn last month, defense analyst T.X. Hammes estimated the following. The delivered cost of a single F-35A is around $130 million, but buying and operating that plane throughout its lifecycle will cost at least $460 million. He estimated that a single Chinese Sunflower suicide drone costs about $30,000 — so you could purchase 16,000 Sunflowers for the cost of one F-35A. And since the full mission capable rate of the F-35A has hovered around 50 percent in recent years, you need two to ensure that all missions can be completed — for an opportunity cost of 32,000 Sunflowers. As Hammes concluded, “Which do you think creates more problems for air defense?”

Ironically, the first service to respond decisively to the new contestation of the air littoral has been the U.S. Army. Its soldiers are directly threatened by lethal drones, as the Tower 22 attack demonstrated all too clearly. Quite unexpectedly, last month the Army cancelled its future reconnaissance helicopter — which has already cost the service $2 billion – because fielding a costly manned reconnaissance aircraft no longer makes sense. Today, the same mission can be performed by far less expensive drones — without putting any pilots at risk. The Army also decided to retire its aging Shadow and Raven legacy drones, whose declining survivability and capabilities have rendered them obsolete, and announced a new rapid buy of 600 Coyote counter-drone drones in order to help protect its troops. As Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George noted, “We are learning from the battlefield — especially Ukraine — that aerial reconnaissance has fundamentally changed. … Sensors and weapons mounted on a variety of unmanned systems and in space are more ubiquitous, further reaching, and more inexpensive than ever before.”

The Air Force needs to learn that air superiority has fundamentally changed as well. Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall recently announced a major reorganization effort to reoptimize the force for great power competition, and has repeatedly warned that the Air Force is “out of time” to prepare for the growing threat from China. But that is simply not enough. It has also run out of time in the air littoral, where it can no longer provide effective air superiority to protect American troops on the ground.

The breathtaking advance of drone warfare in ongoing conflicts is changing the meaning of air superiority and challenging traditional notions of airpower. In Ukraine, drones have largely displaced manned aircraft in the day-to-day fighting over the front lines, and they are actively contesting the brand-new subdomain of the air littoral. The U.S. Air Force has been slow to digest the epic changes in air warfare that these new rapidly expanding capabilities foretell. Facing similar disruptions to land warfare in the late 1990s, then-Army Chief of Staff Gen. Eric Shinseki told his generals: “If you don’t like change, you’re going to like irrelevance even less.” Today’s Air Force leadership would be wise to heed those candid words.

Lt. Gen. David W. Barno, U.S. Army (ret.), and Dr. Nora Bensahel are Professors of Practice at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and are also contributing editors at War on the Rocks, where their column appears periodically. Sign up for Barno and Bensahel’s Strategic Outpost newsletter to track their articles as well as their public events.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

Pulsejet Drone Flies, Could Have Big Impact On Cost Of Future Weapons​



A Baltimore-based startup has recently flown an experimental drone powered by a pulsejet engine, a type of powerplant that has few moving parts, in contrast to a conventional turbine, offering the promise of low-cost jet performance. Previously, the company, Wave Engine Corp., received U.S. Air Force funding to develop a decoy powered by a pulsejet — a powerplant best known for its infamous use in World War II. Meanwhile, the potential for the same propulsion technology to make it into other types of drones is something we have examined in the past and is becoming even more relevant given the increasing applications for expendable types.

Wave Engine’s recent test involved a Scitor-D drone, a conventional takeoff and landing design that has a gross weight of around 100 pounds, a maximum payload of 20 pounds, and which appears to be a scaled-down copy of the A-10 attack aircraft design. The Scitor-D is part of a series of drones with external top-mounted engines, a configuration chosen to keep the vehicles simple and to minimize development and production costs.
For the demonstration flight, the drone was powered exclusively by a pulsejet developing more than 50 pounds-force of thrust (equivalent to more than 222 Newtons). The flight sequence began with a remote instant start followed by takeoff, climb-cruise, and landing.

In the wake of the test flight, Wave Engine announced its first productionized pulsejet, the J-1, also producing more than 50 pounds-force of thrust. Otherwise, the company told The War Zone that the J-1 is a lighter and more aerodynamic version of the engine used to power the Scitor-D.
Ground test of the Wave Engine J-1, its first productionized pulsejet. Wave Engine Corp.
Beyond this, the company also says it’s developed engines that can produce up to 250 pounds-force of thrust (equivalent to more than 1,112 Newtons). This would be sufficient to power a drone, missile, or aircraft with a gross weight of up to 1,000 pounds, Wave Engine says.
Wave Engine has meanwhile demonstrated “multiple” mid-air starts of its pulsejets and has operated its engines at airspeeds up to 200 mph, “limited only by the practical limits of the test facility.” Further tests of the Scitor-D are now planned, which the company says are “oriented around the continued expansion of the flight envelope and test conditions.”

The company has also demonstrated its pulsejets using various different fuels: gasoline/petrol (87 Octane), kerosene-based fuel (Jet-A/JP-8), and sustainable ethanol-based biofuel (E85).
The pulsejet-powered Scitor-D drone used in Wave Engine’s recent test. Wave Engine Corp.
In terms of fuel efficiency, the company has demonstrated thrust-specific fuel consumption (TSFC) levels under 2.0 pounds/pounds-force per hour, which it says rivals the efficiency of more complex and expensive turbine-based engines. Wave Engine combines its pulsejets with Full Authority Digital Electronic Control (FADEC), in which a computer controls engine performance, and this may well be key to achieving the stated levels of efficiency, as well as optimizing performance more generally.
While you can read more here about how pulsejets work, as Wave Engine describes, a simple explanation is that they “operate using pressure waves instead of rotating machinery. Intermittent combustion inside a hollow tube produces pressure waves that push hot gases and produce thrust.”
Pulse jet schematic. First part of the cycle: (1) air intake, mixed with fuel (2). Second part: the valve (3) closes and the ignited fuel-air mix propels the craft. Cyrille Dunant/Gregor Shapiro/Wikimedia Commons
The high speeds offered by pulsejets are also a factor in their favor, especially when compared to the propeller-based powerplants otherwise frequently found on many smaller military drones.
“We continue to push the performance and flight envelope,” said Daanish Maqbool, Wave Engine’s CEO, in response to the Scitor-D demonstration flight. “We have worked for years to harness the power of sound and fire, and we believe it is going to change the industry.”

The Scitor drone offered by Wave Engine. The company says it can fly at a speed of 200 knots for “attritable or short-duration applications, including aerial target and payload missions.” Wave Engine Corp.
The War Zone
has reported in the past on the Versatile Air-Launched Platform (VALP), under which the Air Force Armament Directorate in 2021 awarded the startup a $1-million contract to develop and demonstrate a pulsejet decoy.
At the time, Wave Engine described VALP as “a multi-mission, air-launched vehicle that leverages the company’s proprietary engine technology to demonstrate high-performance, low-cost propulsion for future generations of high-performance aerial vehicles.”
Concept artwork released in 2021 showed a pair of VALPs being launched as decoys from an F-16 fighter. The pulsejet-powered decoys shown included a narrow and unusually deep forward fuselage, low-mounted swept wings, and a slender rear body possibly carrying a V-shaped tail unit.

Concept artwork shows a pair of VALP pulsejet-powered decoys launched from an F-16. Wave Engine Corp.
While it wasn’t immediately clear how the VALP was intended to be used, as we stated at the time, a decoy in this class could employ various methods to confuse enemy air defenses, including replicating the flight profiles and signatures of friendly crewed aircraft, using electronic warfare jammers, or dropping chaff and other countermeasures.
Powered air-launched decoys are already in use with the U.S. Air Force, and other operators, including the ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoy (MALD), powered by a small turbojet engine and designed to spoof enemy air defense systems. Examples of the MALD have also been supplied to Ukraine for use in its war with Russia.
Maintainers prepare to load Miniature Air-Launched Decoys, or MALDs, onto an A-10C at Volk Field Air National Guard Base, Wisconsin, in March 2022. U.S. Air National Guard photo by Tech. Sgt. Samara Taylor
Prior to VALP, Wave Engine’s pulsejets attracted interest from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), which in 2019 awarded a $3-million contract. This saw the company conduct flight demonstrations using a manned glider fitted with a pulsejet mounted above the fuselage.

A Schreder glider is tested with a Wave Engine pulsejet engine. Wave Engine Corp.
As of today, VALP has progressed to the point that “a functional aircraft now exists,” the company told us. “We are in active discussions with government and industry partners to establish the next phase of the effort.”
While VALP was said to be intended “primarily as a decoy,” as we pointed out at the time, pulsejets have the potential for various other applications as well, especially where low cost is a driving factor, including a range of drones for applications other than air-launched decoys.
Cruise missiles could make use of pulsejets — effectively updating the concept that Nazi Germany used for its V-1 flying bombs, or “buzz bombs,” which were used in the final months of World War II and used the same basic type of powerplant.

British Army soldiers examine a captured pulsejet-engined Fieseler Fi 103R Reichenberg — a piloted version of the V-1 flying bomb — in Lower Saxony, Germany, in November 1945. Photo by Chris Ware/Keystone/Hulton Archive/Getty Images
Today, and especially since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the distinction between attack drones and cruise missiles has become increasingly blurred. Indeed, were the V-1 to be fielded now it would very likely be referred to as a long-range one-way attack drone.
Regardless, it’s certainly the case that the war in Ukraine has demonstrated a demand for low-cost, long-range drones, especially those that are intended to deliver an explosive payload in an expendible fashion. Russia’s enthusiastic adoption of the Iranian-designed Shahed series of drones has been paralleled by the rapid development of various homegrown Ukrainian one-way attack drones, offering increasingly long ranges.

Terminal Autonomy
With low cost and rapid producibility being key factors behind the feasibility of these kinds of drones, the potential suitability of pulsejet engines is worth considering, provided that they can offer — as Wave Engine claims — efficiency that can rival turbine engines.
One traditional drawback of pulsejets has been their relatively high noise signature, although for a one-way attack drone that’s not necessarily such a big concern.

In the United States, as well, there has, in recent years, been a growing focus on low-cost missiles in contrast to very expensive products like the AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) series. This line of thinking has led to programs such as Gray Wolf, an Air Force program for a low-cost cruise missile, powered by a miniature turbine.
A Gray Wolf test article under the wing of an F-16. U.S. Air Force

The potential of larger numbers of air-launched munitions to be operated in networked swarms is also a growing area of interest for the U.S. military and provides another niche for lower-cost missiles, as well as decoys, working alongside more expensive precision-guided munitions such as JASSM. For applications such as this, a low-cost powerplant could also be especially attractive.
When asked about the current status of its pulsejet activities, Wave Engines told The War Zone that it is “seeing interest in our technology from the U.S. military and several foreign militaries.” Intriguingly the company also added that its “technology is currently a key component in an active U.S. Department of Defense program,” one that is separate from VALP. Further details were not provided, but it clearly indicates a broader interest in pulsejet technology within the Pentagon.

It’s unclear if we might start seeing a new generation of pulsejet engines powering drones and missiles, but with the U.S. military looking at buying large numbers of lower-cost guided weapons, the prospects could be good. If Wave Engines is successful in its goal of achieving an “order-of-magnitude reduction in the cost and complexity of jet propulsion,” then its pulsejets could have a very bright future ahead of them.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com


Pulsejet Drone Flies, Could Have Big Impact On Cost Of Future Weapons

Pulsejet Engine Working Explained​

RT: 3:06
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A pulsejet engine (or pulse jet) is a type of jet engine in which combustion occurs in pulses. A pulsejet engine can be made with no moving parts, and is capable of running statically (i.e. it does not need to have air forced into its inlet typically by forward motion)
 

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EXCLUSIVE: F-35A officially certified to carry nuclear bomb​


Michael Marrow​

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The first F-35A presented to Belgium at a ceremony in Texas on Dec. 10, 2023. (Lockheed Martin)
WASHINGTON — The F-35A Joint Strike Fighter has been operationally certified to carry the B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bomb, a spokesman for the F-35 Joint Program Office (JPO) tells Breaking Defense.
In a statement, JPO spokesman Russ Goemaere said the certification was achieved Oct. 12, months ahead of a pledge to NATO allies that the process would wrap by January 2024. Certain F-35As will now be capable of carrying the B61-12, officially making the stealth fighter a “dual-capable” aircraft that can carry both conventional and nuclear weapons.
“The F-35A is the first 5th generation nuclear capable aircraft ever, and the first new platform (fighter or bomber) to achieve this status since the early 1990s. This F-35 Nuclear Certification effort culminates 10+ years of intense effort across the nuclear enterprise, which consists of 16 different government and industry stakeholders,” Goemaere said. “The F-35A achieved Nuclear Certification ahead of schedule, providing US and NATO with a critical capability that supports US extended deterrence commitments earlier than anticipated.”

Responding to follow-up questions from Breaking Defense, Goemaere said US disclosure policy prohibits the release of information on dual-capable aircraft among NATO partners. According to analysis by the Federation of American Scientists, as of 2023 approximately 100 older variants of B61 bombs are housed by NATO allies Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey, who share the alliance’s nuclear strike mission. The first four nations are all planned F-35 operators, with the need to have a nuclear-capable aircraft a key reason for Germany signing onto the program.
The F-35A is certified to only carry the newer B61-12 variant, which will replace the older models. The certification additionally does not extend to the stealth jet’s sister variants, the short takeoff and vertical landing F-35B and carrier-launched F-35C. A delivery schedule of B61-12s to Europe is not clear, though Politico previously reported the bombs would be shipped out starting in December 2022.
“The F-35 is the world’s only 5th Generation multi-role stealth fighter, and in partnership with our customers, we continue to make advancements to ensure it stays ahead of threats,” F-35 manufacturer Lockheed Martin said in a statement.
A spokesperson for the US Air Force Air Combat Command told Breaking Defense that “all F-35As in the Air Force inventory are expected to be in a nuclear certified configuration in the future, independent of their assigned lot number,” but declined to elaborate on operational details. Goemaere explained that “USAF F-35As at designated units only are both design and operationally certified to carry the B61-12.”

An Air Force spokesperson additionally told Breaking Defense that “the B61-12 is compatible with any DCA [dual-capable aircraft] certified F-35,” and that the fighter’s suite of upgrades collectively known as Block 4 are not a requirement to use the weapon.
The F-15E was previously the first American fighter shown to be compatible with the B61-12. Three other groups of fighters — F-16A/Bs, F-16C/Ds and the PA-200 Tornado used by some NATO countries — are also authorized to carry nuclear weapons.

The dual capable aircraft serve another element of deterrence alongside the traditional nuclear triad of bombers, submarines and land-launched ICBMs, and are seen by European nations as a key part of staving off Russian aggression. Nuclear capability for the Joint Strike Fighter comes at a critical juncture for NATO amid the war in Ukraine and Russian nuclear saber-rattling in particular.
A technician looks at a B61 bomb.

In a photo from 2015, Tyler Keil, Sandia lead engineer for an impact test series using Sandia’s Davis gun, performs a final diagnostics check on a data recorder for an impact test on the nose assembly of a mock B61-12, mounted on an aluminum tube to replicate the body of the bomb. (Photo by Randy Montoya from the archives)
Dutch military officials appeared to previously hint at nuclear capabilities for the F-35A being rolled out in Europe, writing in a post on X in November that F-35As belonging to Amsterdam achieved “initial certification” for the role. But until now, US military officials have not confirmed the fighter was cleared to use the weapon operationally.
Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project with the Federation of American Scientists, noted the announcement is another milestone in America’s ongoing nuclear modernization effort.

“The stage is set for the tactical nuclear weapons upgrade in Europe with full-scale production of the B61-12 and four NATO allies and the US fighter wing at Lakenheath upgrading to operate the bomb on the F-35A,” he said.
The B61-12 is a life extension program that originated in the Obama administration and is replacing older -3, -4, -7 and -10 models. The first production unit of the B61-12 rolled out in November 2021, with production scheduled through the end of fiscal 2025. The program is estimated to cost $9.6 billion in FY22 dollars over its lifespan, although much of that cost has already been spent, according to an annual government accounting of nuclear warheads [PDF].

The Biden administration additionally announced in October that it would develop a new variant of the weapon dubbed the B61-13. The newer -13 is expected to have a yield similar to the -7, officials have said, which would roughly work out to a blast equivalent of up to 360 kilotons; however, the expectation among experts is the -13 will only be certified on bombers. The yield of the -12, by comparison, is estimated at up to 50 kilotons.
Technically, neither the B61-12 or -13 are “new” nuclear weapons that increase the stockpile, as they are taking the warheads from the older bombs and placing them in new housings.


EXCLUSIVE: F-35A officially certified to carry nuclear bomb - Breaking Defense
 
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