WAR 02-17-2024-to-02-23-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment

(332) 01-27-2024-to-02-02-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(333) 02-03-2024-to-02-09-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****

(334) 02-10-2024-to-02-16-2024__****THE****WINDS****of****WAR****


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Posted earlier by Jward:


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Iran’s Regime is One of the Largest Exporters of Low-Cost Weapons​


Hoshang Amiri
ByHOSHANG AMIRI
-
FEBRUARY 17, 2024

In a report on the rise of the Iranian regime as one of the global arms suppliers, The Wall Street Journal states that buyers of low-cost weapons with advanced technology view the Iranian government as a threat to the interests of the United States and its allies in the Middle East, Ukraine, and beyond.

According to the report, published on February 17, the transformation of Iran’s arms industry, which accelerated with the sale of thousands of drones to Russia in 2022 and altered the battlefield dynamics in Ukraine, aided the regime in supporting quasi-military groups in the Middle East. These groups have intensified their attacks concurrently with the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.

The Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. officials, writes that one of Iran’s most significant arms exports is the suicide drones, exemplified by their use in the January 28 attack by an Iraqi paramilitary group that killed three American soldiers in Jordan.

On February 15, the United States announced that on the same day, the U.S. Coast Guard seized over 200 weapon shipments originating from Iran and destined for Yemen.

The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), responsible for military operations in the Middle East, stated that the seized cargo included missile components and guided underwater and surface unmanned vehicles.

A report from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, published earlier this month, revealed that models from the same family of drones used to kill American soldiers in Jordan were employed in various fronts, including by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, Iraqi paramilitary groups targeting Israel, and by Russia in the war against Ukraine.

Mehdi Farahi, Deputy Minister of Defense for the Iranian regime, stated in November of last year that Tehran had sold approximately one billion dollars’ worth of weapons in 2022, triple the figure from the previous year.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a calculation excluding arms trafficking statistics indicates that in 2022, Iran became the sixteenth largest arms seller globally with $123 million in exports. This marks a significant leap compared to 2017 when Iran was the thirty-third largest arms exporter with $20 million worth of sales.

The Wall Street Journal previously reported, citing U.S. officials, that Russia is planning to purchase short-range ballistic missiles from the Iranian regime, and Iran has also sent ammunition to Russia.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which controls the defense industry, provides free weapons to its allies in the Middle East, including Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon, to support their activities.

Iran’s representative to the United Nations stated on Monday, February 12, to the Wall Street Journal, “We assist Palestinians in achieving military capability to resist independently against attacks.” The statement added, “Based on international laws and UN Security Council resolutions, Iran faces no restrictions or prohibitions on buying and selling weapons.”

The trade restrictions on Iran’s arms were lifted last year by the United Nations, but the United States and the European Union continue to enforce these restrictions.

Iranian suicide drones gained international recognition in 2019 when one of its paramilitary groups conducted a missile and drone attack on Saudi oil facilities.

The production of drones increased after the sale of more than 2,000 Shahed drones to Russia in 2022. According to Iranian officials, with a price of around $20,000 each, the Iranian government received a minimum of $40 million.

The Wall Street Journal had previously reported on another agreement between Moscow and Tehran to establish a factory for producing around 6,000 drones in Russia as part of a billion-dollar arms deal between the two countries.

A few days after the drone attack on January 28 against U.S. forces in Jordan, President Joe Biden blamed Iran, stating that Iran was responsible for supplying these drones.

A few days later, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed new sanctions against companies supplying components and parts for drones and missiles to Iran.

The growth of the arms industry has been a major source of income for the Iranian regime, which has been isolated due to sanctions and restrictions on oil sales and banking transactions.
 
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Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
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Sudanese army breaks siege on important base in Omdurman​

WORLD
By Newsroom Odisha Network On Feb 18, 2024

Khartoum: The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has announced that it has broken the siege imposed by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on the Engineers Corps in Omdurman, west of the capital Khartoum.

Video clips released by the army early Saturday showed the arrival of the SAF Commander Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan in Omdurman, Xinhua news agency reported.

“Al-Burhan arrived in Omdurman on Friday evening to inspect the conditions of the forces and progress of operations in the wake of the major victories achieved by the army after completing the first phase,” the Army said in a statement.

The statement noted that the SAF forces from the Wadi Seidna military base in northern Omdurman successfully lifted the siege and united with army forces at the Engineers Corps base in western Omdurman for the first time since the conflict broke out.

The army also posted video clips showing citizens celebrating the armed forces’ victories in Omdurman and their control of parts of the city.

The SAF’s Chief of Staff Mohamed Osman Al-Hussein congratulated in a statement the Sudanese army’s command in Omdurman on the completion of the first phase of “the plan to clean Omdurman from the mercenaries of the RSF militia”.

Al-Hussein described the first phase of the military operation in Omdurman as “difficult,” expressing hope that a complete victory would be achieved in the near future.

The neighbourhoods of Omdurman have reportedly been witnessing fierce battles in recent days, particularly around the city’s main market area. The army is actively working to encircle the RSF forces stationed near the National Radio and Television Corporation in central Omdurman.

Sudanese activists shared video clips on social media platforms depicting extensive destruction in Omdurman’s main market due to ongoing battles between the SAF and the RSF.

Deadly clashes between the two forces have persisted since April 15 of last year, resulting in a reported death toll of more than 13,000 individuals, as per recent estimates from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

–IANS
 

Housecarl

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Lessons from Ukraine and Israel on how America should approach new tech

"There is a reason technology is often called a 'force multiplier' — it’s best when it helps our forces, not when it replaces them," write Rachel Hoff and Reed Kessler of the Reagan Institute.​

By RACHEL HOFF and REED KESSLER on February 16, 2024 at 12:40 PM

The twin conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza are providing two very different sets of lessons for how militaries can and should incorporate technology. In this new op-ed, Rachel Hoff and Reed Kessler of the Ronald Reagan Institute argue the US needs to make sure it’s learning why it’s not enough just to have the best tech.

Over the last 10 years of the Reagan National Defense Forum, a consensus has emerged that in America’s long-term competition with China, our ability to deter conflict (and, if necessary, to fight and win) hinges on our technological superiority. At December’s event, the imperative to move faster to integrate innovative technologies into US warfighting systems took center stage in a new way. As Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin noted at the time, “The future will be all about human-machine teaming.”

But simply having cutting-edge technology isn’t enough — a lesson that is playing out live, in different ways, on the battlefields in Ukraine and Israel. American policymakers would be wise to internalize these lessons as quickly possible as they consider how to best prepare for great power competition.

Start with Israel, where one of the most advanced militaries in the world was caught by surprise as a low-tech adversary plowed through its billion-dollar wall on the Gaza border. Analysts continue to evaluate what conditions allowed the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas to occur, but a central critique is that the attacks were successful, at least in part, because of Israel’s over-reliance on technology as a cure-all.

Israel’s impressive defense-tech sector and technologically sophisticated military led planners to believe that its “smart wall” could relieve the need for as many boots on the ground along the Gaza border, freeing up additional manpower to deploy in the West Bank instead. On paper, the border fence — fitted with advanced sensors, radar, and automated machine guns — in conjunction with the Iron Dome would provide ample warning of an incoming threat to muster an adequate response. Despite a historical doctrine favoring offensive action due to limited strategic depth, Israel was gradually lulled into a defensive posture that relied heavily on its overwhelming technological superiority.

Hamas didn’t need advanced technologies to study points of weakness along the Gazan border and launch an asymmetric attack to exploit these opportunities. Low-tech capabilities enabled its success. Hamas avoided digital communications to evade detection by using hard-wired phones. It used commercial, low-tech drones traveling at a speed and altitude that thwarted Israeli sensors and radar to drop explosives on automated machine guns and communications towers, jamming the IDF’s calls for reinforcements, while snipers blinded Israeli forces by targeting surveillance cameras. Hamas identified vulnerable breach points and used bulldozers to bust through the smart wall and deliver fighters across the border, overwhelming the reduced IDF troop presence. Israel’s reliance on technology as a substitute for boots on the ground translated to a single point of failure that led to confusion, chaos, and mass violence.

RELATED: ‘They’re also learning’: Russia, Ukraine race to out-innovate each other

Contrast that outcome with what has happened over two years of fighting in Ukraine. Ukrainians are using high-tech capabilities to amplify their military power — but pairing it with savvy force employment. Their use of unmanned and autonomous systems is integrated into the focused efforts of their human troops, not as a replacement for them.

Sensors, attritable drones, cloud technology, Starlink satellites, artificial intelligence, and civilian apps like Diia help locate enemy forces, identify targeting solutions, and guide fires. All of it is designed to enable military personnel to make optimal decisions on the battlefield. The empowerment of Ukrainian soldiers and sailors at all levels to show initiative, experiment with technology, and integrate it into their combined arms tactics has outclassed a rigid, highly centralized, and unimaginative Russian military for much of the war’s trajectory.

These two case studies demonstrate the power of pairing capable soldiers with technology, as well as the peril of attempting to replace the former with the latter. Kyiv’s integration of technology complements its focused war effort centered on the force employment of its soldiers, acting as a force multiplier. Conversely, Tel Aviv’s drift toward using technology as a stand-in for humans to guard the border with Gaza demonstrates the limits of technology alone.

Technological breakthroughs show enormous promise across the spectrum of warfighting. As the United States grapples with the challenge of the PRC as a pacing competitor bent on technological supremacy, concerted efforts to rebuild America’s military-technical edge will be critical to our national security. We can and should strive to test, develop, and field these new capabilities to ensure that American servicemen and women have the best tools at their disposal and never walk into a fair fight.

But there is a reason technology is often called a “force multiplier” — it’s best when it helps our forces, not when it replaces them. All of it leads back to the basic principles of multiplication: 1 x 10 equals 10, but 0 x 10 unfortunately still equals 0. The experiences of allies and partners in ongoing conflicts against very different enemies are teaching us where innovation has the potential to exponentially improve warfighting capabilities, but also where we should guard against an over-reliance on technology that exposes new vulnerabilities.

As we look to tomorrow’s fight, we would do well to remember that the United States has the most highly trained and capable military in the world not only because of the resources at its disposal but because of its human capital. As US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reminded us at the Reagan National Defense Forum, “Our people are the greatest strategic asset that we have.”

Rachel Hoff serves as Policy Director at the Ronald Reagan Institute, the Washington DC office of the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation. Before joining the Institute, she was Speechwriter and Policy Advisor for John McCain at the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Reed Kessler is the Associate Director of Policy at the Ronald Reagan Institute in Washington D.C. She previously served at the Department of State in the Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, the U.S. Mission to the United Nations, the UN Operations and Crisis Centre and the Council on Foreign Relations. Reed also holds an Olympic world record as the youngest athlete ever selected to compete in her sport at the London Olympics.
 

Housecarl

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RUSSIA

Rebranding the Wagner Group in Africa​

Russian mercenary group renamed ‘Africa Corps’ and placed under defense ministry command in wake of ex-leader Prigozhin’s suspicious demise
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By ALESSANDRO ARDUINO
FEBRUARY 17, 2024

In August 2023, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin died after his private jet crashed about an hour after taking off in Moscow. He had been Russia’s point man in Africa since the Wagner Group began operating on the continent in 2017.

The group is known for deploying paramilitary forces, running disinformation campaigns and propping up influential political leaders. It has had a destabilizing effect. Prigozhin’s death – and his aborted mutiny against Russian military commanders two months earlier – has led to a shift in Wagner Group’s activities.

What does this mean for Africa? Alessandro Arduino’s research includes mapping the evolution of mercenaries and private military companies across Africa. He provides some answers.


What is the current status of the Wagner Group?​

Following Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death, the Russian ministries of foreign affairs and defence quickly reassured Middle Eastern and African states that it would be business as usual – meaning unofficial Russian boots on the ground would keep operating in these regions.

Recent reports on the Wagner Group suggest a transformation is underway. The group’s activities in Africa are now under the direct supervision of the Russia Ministry of Defense.


Wagner commands an estimated force of 5,000 operatives deployed throughout Africa, from Libya to Sudan. As part of the transformation, the defense ministry has renamed it the Africa Corps.

The choice of name could be an attempt to add a layer of obfuscation to cover what has been in plain sight for a long time. That Russian mercenaries in Africa serve one master – the Kremlin.

Nevertheless, the direct link to Russia’s Ministry of Defense will make it difficult for Russia to argue that a foreign government has requested the services of a Russian private military company without the Kremlin’s involvement. The head of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs attempted to use this defense in Mali.

The notion of transforming the group into the Africa Corps may have been inspired by World War II German Field Marshal Erwin Rommel’s Afrika Korps. Nazi Germany wove myths around his strategic and tactical successes in North Africa.

But will the Wagner Group under new leadership uphold the distinctive modus operandi that propelled it to infamy during Prigozhin’s reign? This included the intertwining of boots on the ground with propaganda and disinformation. It also leveraged technologies and a sophisticated network of financing to enhance combat capabilities.

What will happen to Wagner’s modus operandi now?​

In my recent book, Money for Mayhem: Mercenaries, Private Military Companies, Drones and the Future of War, I record Prigozhin’s adept weaving of disinformation and misinformation.

Numerous meticulously orchestrated campaigns flooded Africa’s online social platforms promoting the removal of French and Western influence across the Sahel.

Prigozhin oversaw the creation of the Internet Research Agency, which operated as the propaganda arm of the group. It supported Russian disinformation campaigns and was sanctioned in 2018 by the US government for meddling in American elections. Prigozhin admitted to founding the so-called troll farm:

I’ve never just been the financier of the Internet Research Agency. I invented it, I created it, I managed it for a long time.
From a financial perspective, Prigozhin’s approach involved establishing a convoluted network of lucrative natural resources mining operations. These spanned gold mines in the Central African Republic to diamond mines in Sudan.

This strategy was complemented by significant cash infusions from the Russian state to support the Wagner Group’s direct involvement in hostilities. This extended from Syria to Ukraine and across North and West Africa.

My research shows Prigozhin networks are solid enough to last. But only as long as the golden rule of the mercenary remains intact: guns for hire are getting paid.

In Libya and Mali, Russia is unlikely to yield ground due to enduring geopolitical objectives. These include generating revenue from oil fields, securing access to ports for its navy and securing its position as a kingmaker in the region.

However, the Central African Republic may see less attention from Moscow. The Wagner Group’s involvement here was primarily linked to Prigozhin’s personal interests in goldmine revenues.

The Russian Ministry of Defense will no doubt seek to create a unified and loyal force dedicated to military action. But with the enduring legacy of Soviet-style bureaucracy, marked by excessive paperwork and procrastination in today’s Russian officials, one might surmise that greater allegiance to Moscow will likely come at the cost of reduced flexibility.

History has shown that Africa serves as a lucrative arena for mercenaries due to various factors. These include:

  • the prevalence of low-intensity conflicts reduces the risks to mercenaries’ lives compared to full-scale wars like in Ukraine
  • the continent’s abundant natural resources are prone to exploitation
  • pervasive instability allows mercenaries to operate with relative impunity.
As it is, countries in Africa once considered allies of the West are looking for alternatives. Russia is increasingly looking like a viable candidate. In January 2024, Chad’s junta leader, Mahamat Idriss Deby, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow to “develop bilateral ties.” Chad previously had taken a pro-Western policy.

A month earlier, Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, who’s been tasked with overseeing Wagner’s activities in the Middle East and North Africa, visited Niger. The two countries agreed to strengthen military ties. Niger is currently led by the military after a coup in July 2023.

Where does it go from here?​

There are a number of paths that the newly named Africa Corps could take.

  • It gets deployed by Moscow to fight in conflicts meeting Russia’s geopolitical ends.
  • It morphs into paramilitary units under the guise of Russian foreign military intelligence agencies.
  • It splinters into factions, acting as heavily armed personal guards for local warlords.
The propaganda machinery built by Prigozhin may falter during the transition. But this won’t signal the immediate disappearance of the Russian disinformation ecosystem.

Russian diplomatic efforts are already mobilizing to preserve the status quo. This is clear from Moscow’s backing of the recent Alliance of Sahelian States encompassing Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

All three nations are led by military rulers who overthrew civilian governments and recently announced plans to exit from the 15-member Economic Community of West African States.

Alessandro Arduino is Affiliate Lecturer, King’s College London

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
 

Housecarl

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Minnesota man charged for aiding ISIS, threatening attack on New York​

Story by Lauren Irwin • 14h

A Minnesota man was charged Friday with providing and conspiring to provide support to ISIS and threatening to attack New York City, the Department of Justice (DOJ) announced.

Harafa Hussein Abdi, 41, a U.S. citizen who resides in Minneapolis, was recently taken into custody overseas and was transported back to the United States, the DOJ said. He is facing up to 20 years in prison.

Assistant Attorney General Matthew Olsen said in a statement that Abdi left the U.S. to join ISIS, a designated foreign terrorist organization, as a fighter and to actively aid the group’s “propaganda efforts to spread its vile ideology.”

“There is no higher priority for the National Security Division than to protect Americans from terrorist organizations and we will work tirelessly to find and hold accountable those who would join these groups to do our people harm wherever they may be,” Olsen’s statement said.

Abdi moved from Minneapolis to Somalia in 2015. He joined ISIS’s media team to film footage for distribution by a “pro-ISIS media outlet” and became trained in using an AK-47.

In 2017, he made comments that he was going to “fly through America on our way to shoot New York up. They trying to shut this thing. We ain’t going. We going to come blow New York up.” He also allegedly sent social media messages about committing violent acts in Manhattan, the DOJ said.

Authorities in East Africa later apprehended Abdi, after his relationship with ISIS leaders deteriorated.

The DOJ is charging Abdi with conspiring to provide material support to a designated foreign terrorist organization, which carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison. The agency is also charging Abdi with providing material support to a foreign terrorist organization, conspiring to receive military-type training from a terrorist organization and receiving military-type training from a terrorist organization.

Abdi appeared before a U.S. Magistrate Judge in Manhattan federal court on Friday. He was born in Somalia in 1982, entered the U.S. in 1999 and became a naturalized U.S. citizen in 2006, The Associated Press reported.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
The Greeks also have 390 M48s (with upgrades to fire controls and armed with a 105 mm gun) and 100 M60A3 TTS in storage......

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Europe

Greek Army weighs options for breathing new life into Leopard 1 tanks​

By Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo
Feb 16, 08:21 AM

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A Danish instructor stands on a Leopard 1A5 main battle tank while training a Ukrainian a tank crew at a military training ground on May 5, 2023 near Klietz, Germany. The Greek Army, which has hundreds of Leopard 1s in service, wants to extend their service life. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

MILAN — German arms manufacturer Krauss-Maffei Wegmann has partnered with local Greek supplier EODH and Spanish electronics firm Duma to propose an upgrade package for the modernization of the Hellenic Army’s Leopard 1A5 fleet.

“The Armored Directorate of the Hellenic Army is in the phase of studying the future of the tanks’ potential and has asked various companies to submit proposals for the 500 Leopard 1A5s that it has in active operation,” John Mitsis, who oversees business development at EODH, told Defense News in an email.

“For this reason, EODH in collaboration with the original equipment manufacturer KMW/KNDS, and Duma, designed a package that ensures that the tank will remain combat-worthy for at least another two decades,” he added.

The offer was presented to the Greek General Staff earlier this month and will include a number of improvements primarily related to the mobility, lethality and protection of the tanks, as prescribed in a life-extension plan provided to Defense News.

Among the proposed changes would be the introduction of a stronger engine and reinforced suspension to make the vehicle more agile. Firepower upgrades contain a new fire control system based on new sights for the gunner, and a modernized turret and gun control system.

“A fully digital open architecture allows for the tanks’ easy adaption of various weapon systems such as anti-drone remotely operated weapon station, possible integration of barrel-launched and/or side-pod anti-tank guided missiles and the integration of barrel launched or side-pod loitering munitions,” the upgrade document states.

Once officially initiated, the upgrade package will represent the most significant modernization of Greece’s Leopard 1s in over 30 years. There is currently no available deadline for when the Hellenic Ministry of Defense will reach a decision to proceed.

It was previously reported by Greek media that Italian defense company Leonardo was also in the running to propose upgrades, including the Hitfact-MkII turret system mounted on the Centauro 2 tank-destroyer in service with the Italian Army.

About Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo
Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo is a Europe correspondent for Defense News. She covers a wide range of topics related to military procurement and international security, and specializes in reporting on the aviation sector. She is based in Milan, Italy.
 

Housecarl

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Five Years Of Balakot: A New Nuclear South Asia – Analysis​

February 19, 2024 0 Comments
By Institute of South Asian Studies

By Yogesh Joshi

It has been almost five years since India conducted air strikes inside Pakistani territory in Balakot in response to the attack on Indian security forces in Pulwama in Kashmir. The deadly terrorist strike on 15 February 2019, which claimed the lives of 44 security personnel, triggered a major military crisis between South Asia’s two nuclear-armed adversaries. The crisis and its culmination have changed Indo-Pakistan’s nuclear and conventional dynamics significantly.

Two weeks after the Pulwama terrorist attacks, the Indian government launched air strikes against alleged terrorist training camps deep inside Pakistani territory in Balakot. The action was unprecedented. Successive Indian governments have shown immense restraint in the face of continuous provocation and cross-border terrorism by Pakistan-based groups. India’s current Prime Minister Narendra Modi has tried to alter that tradition of military restraint by ordering limited kinetic action against terrorist hideouts across the border in Kashmir. However, the use of air power in mainland Pakistan was highly unexpected. The last time the Indian Air Force targeted Pakistani territory was during the 1971 war over Bangladesh. Even at the height of the Kargil war in 1999, the air force was strictly instructed not to cross the ‘Line of Control’ separating the Indian and Pakistani-administered regions of Kashmir.

Modi’s use of force during the Balakot attacks was the most emphatic response in its fight against Pakistan-based terror groups so far.

India’s retaliation invited an immediate Pakistani response. First, the Pakistani government convened a meeting of its nuclear command body – the National Command Authority – suggesting that any further escalation would invite a Pakistani nuclear reaction. Islamabad’s linking of the crisis with nuclear escalation was a desperate ploy. Since the ‘surgical strikes’ against terrorist hideouts across the Line of Control in September 2016, India’s tactic of conventional escalation was called into questioning Pakistan’s nuclear bluff.

However, Islamabad’s response was purely conventional. Just a day later, on 27 February 2019, Pakistani Air Force planes breached Indian airspace and attempted a bombing raid on an Indian military base close to the line of control in Kashmir. In the ensuing air battle, India lost a fighter jet. The Pakistan Army captured the pilot and paraded him on Pakistani media. The Indian Air Force also claimed to have shot down a United States (US)-supplied F-16 fighter jet of the Pakistani Air Force. The stage was set for the crisis to escalate further. In fact, as Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan Ajai Bisaria has argued, New Delhi was ready to up the ante by launching missiles at Pakistani targets if the captured fighter pilot was not released immediately. The international community, led by the US, forced Pakistan to release him, paving the way for the eventual de-escalation of the crisis.

The crisis and its culmination introduced two new variables in South Asia’s strategic scenario.

First, India’s military action and its use of air power have redefined the cost calculus of the Pakistani state’s support for anti-India terrorist groups. India’s earlier restraint allowed Islamabad to continue its support for such groups without costs. The Indian air strikes at Balakot signalled that New Delhi will henceforth hold the Pakistan Army directly responsible for terrorism in Kashmir and will engage in punitive military action. The Pakistan Army could not continue to support terrorism on the cheap. Of course, India’s military action invited a Pakistani response, as was the case on 27 February 2019. However, directly engaging the Pakistani military was a much better strategy than allowing its generals to sleep peacefully while letting the terrorists do their bidding. In fact, months after the Pulwama crisis, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence provided Indian counterparts information on a possible terrorist attack in Kashmir to avoid another military response from New Delhi.

Second, India’s response to the Pulwama attack and Pakistan’s counter to Indian air action also shattered the idea that any limited military engagement would lead to a nuclear war. Since the 1998 nuclear weapons tests in South Asia, India’s military restraint resulted partially from the fear of a conventional military crisis escalating into a nuclear one. Pakistan also used its nuclear weapons as a shield under which it could continue to support terror without inviting a conventional riposte from India.

After the December 2001 attack on the Indian parliament, the government mobilised the military but desisted from initiating any action against Pakistan. Even after the 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai, New Delhi opted for a diplomatic rather than a military offensive against Islamabad. Taking its cue, Pakistan, has over the years, continued to lower the threshold for nuclear use in the subcontinent, and its introduction of tactical nuclear weapons has been a part of that strategy. The crisis proved that Pakistan’s threshold for nuclear use is much higher. Pakistan opted for a conventional response to India’s initial escalatory air strikes. Even when New Delhi threatened to use conventional missiles – the second rung of the escalation ladder – Pakistan prepared only for a conventional response. The crisis has opened a new space for limited military action in the subcontinent.

The conventional military and the nuclear dynamics in the subcontinent underwent significant revision after the Balakot incident. New Delhi finally discovered a political will to punish Pakistan militarily. Henceforth, every time a Pakistan-based terrorist group aims to target India, the Pakistan Army will have to gear up for some kinetic action. Islamabad has also been forced to revise its nuclear ‘red lines’, at least in practice if not in theory. This does not mean that the two nuclear adversaries will always be able to calibrate military escalation short of a nuclear war. However, it has shown that the use of nuclear weapons is not inevitable in a crisis between the two countries.

  • About the author: Dr Yogesh Joshi is a Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), an autonomous research institute in the National University of Singapore (NUS). He can be contacted at yogeshjoshi@nus.edu.sg. The author bears full responsibility for the facts cited and opinions expressed in this paper.
  • Source: This article was published at Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS)
 

jward

passin' thru
South Korea develops new drone interceptors​

By Gu Min Chul​

South Korea is set to unveil a groundbreaking system designed to intercept drones at distances of up to 30 km using a tube-launched, unmanned aerial system.

The use of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for interception purposes is not new. The “Coyote” low-cost, rail-launched drone from RTX in the United States is the most notable weapon of this type, initially developed as a modular UAV for various purposes, including reconnaissance, strike, and submarine launch. It was later transformed into an interceptor by attaching a small rocket engine, with prices ranging from $100,000 to $200,000 per unit, making it one of the market leaders in combat drones.

Recently, the U.S. Army announced a new contract for 600 Coyote interceptors.
The new Korean anti-drone system is expected to be similar and based on a specialized trailer equipped with tube-launcher modules for interceptor drones. Upon detecting an enemy UAV, an interceptor drone is immediately launched from the launcher container for interception.

The launched interceptor drone is equipped with detection radar and a data transmission line connected to ground control equipment. Prior to approaching the hostile UAV, the detection radar informs the interceptor drone of the enemy UAV’s location through the data transmission channel and closes in on it. When it gets close enough, the electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) guidance system installed on the interceptor drone’s head tracks the drone to its end and intercepts it through self-blow up.

According to the Agency for Defense Development (ADD), development of this project began in the fourth quarter of last year, with the Basic Design Review (PDR) soon to be completed, followed by the Detailed Design Review (CDR). After the interceptor drone completes its flight, expected in the fall of this year, interception tests with an actual UAV are planned to be conducted by the second half of next year. The interception test will also include targeting a small UAV.

Gu Min Chul
Gu Min Chul is a defense reporter who covers the Korean defense industry and all related issues.

 

Housecarl

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US MARKETS

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At least a dozen dead in northern Mexico shootout near Texas border​

February 19, 2024 — 10:32 am EST
Written by Raul Cortes and Laura Gottesdiener for Reuters ->

MONTERREY, Mexico, Feb 19 (Reuters) - At least 12 people were killed in a shootout with security forces in northern Mexico near the border with the United States, Mexican authorities said on Sunday night.

Tamaulipas state's security agency said in a statement published on X that the soldiers were on patrol in the municipality of Miguel Aleman, along the Texas border, when they were attacked by "armed civilians."

The agency did not respond to questions about whether any soldiers were killed or injured in the shootout.

The state of Tamaulipas has various organized crime groups, whose main activities include human smuggling and drug trafficking, authorities say.

(Reporting by Raul Cortes and Laura Gottesdiener; Editing by Aurora Ellis)
 

Housecarl

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Posted for fair use.......

  1. El Centro
Sun, 02/18/2024 - 1:30am
Organized Crime Groups and their Discourse in Mexico
Chase Whitehouse

Nearly 400,000 people have died or gone missing since the outbreak of the Mexican drug war in 2006.[1] That number makes this war one of the deadliest in the history of modern Mexico, competing closely for the top spot with the Mexican Revolutionary War, but no number can do this conflict justice. The very fabric of Mexican society has suffered greatly; the state's attempt at quashing the violence has left them humiliated again and again. Right under the international community's nose, one of the most consequential asymmetric conflicts of the postwar era is taking place. In the increasingly complex world order, conflicts such as these are often disregarded and considered insignificant. To many without appropriate context, Mexico’s present fight against organized crime actors may just seem to be a particularly messy conflict against a primitive enemy—a conflict in which the Mexican state has made many mistakes but will inevitably succeed by virtue of being a modern state. One may believe those partaking in organized crime are mere criminals whose only motivation is profit. Yet, this is not an issue the international community hasn’t seen before when understood with this clouded lens.

Within this conflict, there have been fascinating narratives (or tropes) distinctive from the milktoast criminal enterprise, that being one solely motivated by monetary ambition. Various groups are directly opposing the Mexican state and exhibiting traits typical of sub-state actors with intentions to undermine the state's survival. It is this discourse from the OCGs that this research will examine. The crimes committed by these groups are horrifically exploitative and violent. This is clear to the Mexican people, who are subject to them. Despite this, there exists a vibrant discourse of complicity with these groups serving as the main institutions in the lives of many as a direct substitute for the state. Sub-state actors in Mexico have often proved themselves to be a persistent agitator to the legitimacy of the central government since Mexico's conception out of the ashes of the Spanish Empire. This is true from the outset of the uprisings of the priests in the Cristero War of 1926 to 1929. This uprising came as a result of perceived overreach by the central government. In it, the new secularist forces from Mexico City implemented reforms that would repress the Catholic Church’s influence in Mexico.[2]

The Cristero War, among other rebellions of the rural peoples of Mexico, can have several systemic escalating factors. One such factor, as pondered by former Mexican Foreign Secretary Jorge Castañeda Gutman, is geography. Mexico is vast and mountainous, and, as a result, many people in the shadows of these mountains feel a disconnect from the ideas and control of Mexico City.[3] The drift between Mexico City and rural populations is further illustrated by the Mexican Dirty War and the continued existence of rural guerrilla groups such as the Zapatistas, who control large swaths of southern Mexico to this day. The moral of the story throughout is this, the fracture between Mexico City and the makeup of rural Mexico has been devastating to attempts at centralization.

It’s this broad historical, cultural, and geographic disconnect from the central government that perpetuates the criminality and subsequent popularity of the aforementioned organized crime groups. This is supported by thinkers such as Eric Hobsbawm in his theory of social banditry, who posit that due to a feeling of isolation from the central government that populations feel a closer loyalty to more localized institutions; this can include criminal groups and regionalist factions alike.[4] These characteristics and attitudes are too commonly seen and documented today as well. The Washington Post reports that a declassified Central Intelligence Agency report states that up to 20% of Mexican territory is controlled by groups with “a level of organization, firepower, and territorial control comparable to what armed political groups have had in other places.”[5]

This leads this paper to ask the following question: how do organized crime groups (OCG) in Mexico use state-succeeding discourse to legitimize themselves and their actions, and what kind of identity does this discourse produce?
These narratives, having made themselves present throughout the history of post-independence Mexico, are what this research will analyze. By adhering to the later established methodological framework and using the novel context of the crisis understood as a Mexican issue, this research’s outcome will hold serious implications for policy makers and academia. Understanding this discourse is central to how the governments with an interest in the conflict react to the growth of novel tropes within the groups within it.

Literature Review
To understand these groups and their state-succeeding characteristics, most scholars begin by arguing definitions with widely varying interpretations from many different lenses. Sylvia Longmire and John Longmire argue that certain OCGs should be classified as “narco-terrorist” on the basis of their tactical means that may or may not inform a broader goal.[6] This understanding drifts from the consensus of the majority of scholars, such as Dr. Phil Williams. Many, like Williams, disagree with Longmire, seeing the use of terrorism as completely inapplicable because criminal groups’ sole motivation must be purely monetary gains; they utilize classic motifs of the generic criminal without a Mexican context.[7]

Scholars such as Dr. John P. Sullivan and Dr. Robert Bunker stand out, as their faction generally disavows criminal and terrorist stereotypes while acknowledging the novel, and often, bizarre characteristics present in the actions of these groups. This includes the formation of quasi-cults of personality that accompany OCGs distribution of goods as a sort of social service to the people falling within their territory, among other unique characteristics. Bunker and Sullivan’s 1998 theory of “cartel phases” illustrates this. Here, they assert the criminal state successor is “a consequence of unremitting corruption and co-option of state institutions.”[8] Sullivan and Bunker later use language that alludes to state failure as an advanced form of “warlordism and social banditry.”[9] This is further amplified by Correa-Cabrera, Keck, and Nava; they note that the Mexican government has failed to uphold a cornerstone of the modern state, securing a monopoly on the legitimate use of focus. They see this lack of consolidation as essential to the growth of OCGs into a more legitimate state successor.[10] Sullivan elaborates on the unique state formation characteristics of OCGs later. “Using social services and infrastructure protection as levers in rural areas and small towns, these non-state actors are building a social base.”[11] These modifications of social dynamics amplify these theoretical understandings. OCGs are creating a powerful, and convincing, alternative. Sullivan quotes a narcocorrido which expounds on this further,
“He’s a friend of those who are friends and an enemy of those who are enemies...” The song continues (as paraphrased by Guillermoprieto) “he controls a great deal of territory and it is an all-around good thing!”[12]

As mentioned briefly in the introduction, Mexico has an ample history of hostilities among the self-labeled forgotten population. This, of course, has colonial roots. François-Xavier Guerra was dismissed by his peers but, from a contemporary perspective and with a broader understanding of postcolonial thinking, his work stands out. This is especially true in regard to his understanding of aggressions by the indigenous peoples of modern Mexico in addition to the general rebelling class of rural peoples of Mexico's past—a rejection of what Arjji Ouweneel calls modernity. Guerra, among others, continues to argue the agrarian nature of early Mexican internal conflicts. Ouweneel counters Guerra’s binary interpretation of modernity as opposed to tradition through a socio-economic understanding. Ouweneel grasps the conflicts of the early Mexican states as rejections of poor socio-economic realities rather than romantic ‘mentalité’ and the desperate hangings on institutions such as the church and rural or tribal loyalties.[13] Campbell argues something similar, in the context of OCGs, when he says that the behavior of these groups is a reaction, or the revenge, of those who feel that Mexican society does not account for them. The marginalized hold the strength of cartels as a bitter rejection of what Campbell calls, “the new regime of neoliberal globalization and free trade.”[14] This fits within the economic context that Ouweneel and Guerra are arguing.

These two scholars are representative of a larger, more active, discourse surrounding these internal conflicts from Mexico's past. The previously mentioned Sullivan and Bunker fall within a modest proportion of academics. Their understanding of state-succeeding characteristics is not shared by many, and the connections they drew between the work of Marxist thinker Eric Hobsbawm and this phenomenon remain mostly unconsidered by a majority of academia.[15] Hobsbawm fits neatly into the debate outlined above between Gurrea and Ouweeneel, as Hobsbawm's theories of social banditry are theoretically similar to the understandings of both Ouweeneel and Guerra. Representing a meeting of the two disputing academic sects, Hobsbawm argues that social banditry is a nationalistic reaction to the economic interference of outsiders. He also notes how social bandits utilize existing biases as an instrument of manipulation against the population in which the social bandit has infiltrated.[16] Sullivan and Bunker, in citing Hobsbawm, may have established the framework needed to achieve what the historian Ouweeneel outlined, “to 'flirt' with in-depth studies of collective consciousness and rural village politics could lead to a better marriage of socio-economic and political history in the outlining of a new theory of peasant revolt.” This new theory of peasant revolt may be present within the discourse of the groups this research will analyze.[17]

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This research will use Sullivan and Bunker’s theories and frameworks to analyze the discourse displayed by these organized crime groups. Their “phases” theory issues a framing necessary to understand how this behavior fits into a greater, more menacing social movement.[18]

In applying this research's findings to the above-mentioned theoretical frameworks, a better academic and policy understanding will be achieved. The present crisis facing the Mexican state is delicate and highly dangerous, and there are serious gaps in the academia surrounding it. The academic literature uses language more appropriate for the war on religious terror, deemphasizes Mexico's unique history and nature as a state, and broadly dismisses these issues as common criminality not worthy of the time of academia and the United States government.

This research will fill these gaps with the work of scholars such as Sullivan, Bunker, and others. This undertaking will build on this existing academia and apply the discourse output of these organized crime groups while keeping Mexican realities and identities at the forefront. This research, with the assistance of the existing academia, will answer the question of how organized crime groups in Mexico use state-succeeding discourse to legitimize themselves and their actions and what kind of identity the discourse produces. By analyzing their published behavior through literature, propaganda, and activity within their communities, academia will have a better grasp of a potentially disastrous social movement brewing in Mexico.

Methodological Plan
This research employs a dialectic-relational approach to conducting a discourse analysis, focusing on the narratives generated by OCGs operating in Mexico. The examination of these discourses within the framework of established analytical tools enhances the comprehension of the identified traits. The multifaceted nature of Mexican OCGs’ communication strategies involves diverse dissemination methods for this discourse, contributing to a nuanced understanding of their messaging and operational dynamics.

One of the primary vehicles for discourse is through social media. This comes in the form of social media marketing for their nefarious enterprises, messages to law enforcement and rival gangs, and general promotion of their lifestyle.
To assist in the analysis of social media discourse, this research will reference blogs such as Blog del Narco and Borderland Beat. These are blogs and forums moderated by anonymous actors throughout Mexico covering the conflicts surrounding these criminal entities. Additionally, social media accounts will be examined though information will be considered as there is less credibility in the bravado and want for attention common in this realm of social media activity.

By analyzing these specific means of first-hand information, a better grasp of the bottom-up perspective will be obtained. While not an entirely reliable account of information, these sources provide invaluable insight into the psychology and motivations of these groups, as what they are offering in these sources is how they wish to be perceived and legitimized. In doing so, conclusions can be drawn on just that, how they are using online discourse to legitimize themselves as legitimate actors in Mexican society. If this is true, in that they are using social media to legitimize themselves, then what kind of identity is this creating? Using the established theoretical framework, an understanding of this identity and its consequences on state succession can be had. There is also a rich and lauded world of journalism covering the topic of these organizations in Mexico. This research will utilize the tireless work of these journalists for a more reliable and polished source of information. In doing so, this research will cite the works of award-winning writers such as Steven Dudley and his team at Insight Crime as well as the hundreds of Mexican journalists who do esteemed work despite a tremendously present risk to their own life. This data will come in the form of interviews, quantitative studies, and more. The work of Ioan Grillo is also highly acclaimed. His book, “El Narco” is one of the most extolled pieces of narco-journalism.[19] While the work of renowned journalists such as Dudley and Grillo is valuable, this research will make an effort to make use of the wealth of highly qualified Mexican journalists to avoid the pollution of knowledge from biases. Much of the discourse around this topic, as discussed previously in the literature review, is coded in previously existing academia and media without a Mexican context. These works by the journalists of contemporary Mexico will provide a wealth of information and insights, both qualitative and quantitative, that first-hand social media accounts cannot.

As mentioned previously, this dialectic-relational analysis will apply the ideas found in the above-mentioned sources to a theoretical framework theorized by John Sullivan and Robert Bunker starting in 1998 and 2002. This will be achieved through interpreting the discourse output by the organized crime groups as either state-succeeding characteristics with goals beyond simple criminality and material gain or just that, a tactic by criminals to expand their wealth of material and power. Neither would be unprecedented, as is illustrated in Sullivan and Bunker's theoretical framework. Criminal entities, such as Pablo Escobar’s Medellín Cartel, famously distributed their enormous stash of wealth to obtain the favor of the local population to dissuade any collaborative attitudes with law enforcement.[20]

To understand the difference between both breeds of organizations, these characteristics being investigated must fit within the framework of “phase three.” Sullivan and Bunker explain the qualifying metrics include “ruling a physical or virtual lawless zone.”[21] A characteristic these groups typically display is that of the hostile takeover of territory. Opposition does not go unpunished, and a relationship is cultivated over time. A pattern Sullivan and Bunker note as “La Familia” is a vigilante movement that was born in the 1980s. This phenomenon originated as a group assigned to protect the poor and desperate from violent criminals. These criminals were made up of drug dealers and soldiers of the prominent cartels of the time. In more recent years, this concept has been co-opted by the same very type of criminals. These groups have adopted the role of “La Familia” and assigned themselves as the protector from vagrants and criminals they deem lesser than themselves.[22] This can be a vehicle to purge other gangs from their territory while masking such violence as a public good, winning over the support of the local population.

By applying this framework, it serves as an important guide in understanding the motivations of these organizations. This represents these groups as taking the role of the state in the lives of the Mexicans which they physically dominate. This dialectic-relational research will examine the discourse of these groups and see if this specific trend, as an example, represents a broader, ominous threat to Mexican state legitimacy. Sullivan and Bunker say as much,
“For many citizens of Mexico, living under La Familia or similar criminal-state rule may be no better or no worse than that of living in the Mexican federal zones. Without political reforms, the Mexican governmental system remains corrupt, and its legitimacy threatened.”[23]

Discourse Analysis
To understand Mexican OCGs as they exist today, one must come to terms with the difficulty of holistically comprehending any trend. These groups are aggressive, volatile, fractured, and, according to the American intelligence community, immensely powerful. However, the current Mexican government disputes these findings that OCGs are as powerful as the United States claims.[24] Nevertheless, even the most powerful OCGs operate with a non-linear structure, making what information came from whom something not always clear. However, this discourse analysis will examine the broader trends of discourse.

First, an understanding of the mood of the Mexican people is important. This section will employ polling data from a variety of sources to take the temperature of the population and assess the attitudes towards the many combatting institutions of Mexican society and the state. Second, is an analysis of OCGs role in their communities, some serving as the de facto enforcer of the peace. Third, will be the concept of social banditry with an emphasis on the social goods these groups can supply. The discourse analysis will conclude with an understanding of “narcocultura,” and the many layers therein. Throughout, these pieces will be tied together, better explaining how OCGs legitimize themselves and the theoretical implications of these attempts.

Public Perception
These factors combined breed chaos and a public lack of confidence in an already struggling Mexican state. The Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) reports that 44% of Mexicans believe corruption has increased [25] with statistics from before the Covid pandemic indicate upwards of 90% of Mexicans believe their institutions to be deeply corrupt [26]. Though some improvement has been shown, many Mexicans are still deeply unhappy with the role the government plays in their lives. Just as one example, less than 44% of Mexicans in urban areas feel satisfied with the quality of basic public services [27]. While this is data from urban populations, historic neglect of the rural populations of Mexico leads one to logically conclude that such perceptions would be equally—if not more— negative among rural citizens.

It is a characteristic of OCGs to be mostly active in rural areas; this allows them to more easily skirt the central government. The lack of control that the Mexican state can project into these regions is exemplified by the consistent deployment of the Mexican armed forces to areas under OCG control. These areas, according to the United States government in 2018, consist of 20% of Mexican territory.[28]

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It is this disillusionment with the services the government provides along with the constant struggle for the monopoly on force in the broader Mexican population, yet mainly in the rural population, that allows OCGs to feed their discourse. That discourse being, the state is weak and should be replaced by OCGs as the primary institution of trust. Establishing this level of trust and support within a community is essential within the theoretical guidelines established by previous scholarship. British Historian Eric Hobsbawm was keen on the notion that a social bandit is a criminal who wishes to use discourse to cultivate an image of themselves as righteous in their opposition to the state.[29] Creating this alternative, where, rather than seeking the help of the courts in a land dispute, you contact your local “narco,” is a very dangerous narrative that is all too present in reports of rural Mexican communities.

The local “narco’s” role as the institution that solves the problems of the community is concerning. However, a trend that rings especially worrying is the narrative in which OCGs manipulate the strong cultural bond to the family structure. In the same polls mentioned above regarding satisfaction with public amenities, 86.7% of Mexicans say that their family is the institution that inspires the most trust.[30]

“La Familia” and “Narcos” as Enforcers of the Peace
The family is, by far, the most trusted institution in the country.[31] OCGs know this and use this truth to their advantage. OCGs are skilled at using familial discourse to convince their communities to trust them and accept their actions as acceptable and justified. This can be achieved through various means; OCGs often recruit young local men as “sicarios”, or hitmen, to carry out violent actions against competitors, the government, and dissenters. OCGs also brand themselves “La Familia.” They assign themselves as community watchdogs and protectors of the peace, replacing the state while also qualifying themselves to the people as de-facto family members to clamp down on criminal competition.[32] This narrative indicates OCGs understanding of institutional structures and displays a desire to play into them in pursuit of gaining public trust.

A recent example of this phenomenon was the address by the Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación (Jalisco New Generation Cartel), helmed by Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, that declared the state of Michoacán as under their protection. In this address, heavily armed members of the group accused rival OCGs of extorting the population. Oseguera’s men explained that they had entered Michoacán out of a desire to “achieve peace” and “achieve the tranquility that the citizens of the state of Michoacán desire so much.” They went on to inform any government officials that “this conflict is not against you” painting an increasingly ominous picture of the relationship between sub-state actors and the state.[33] It appears that, in the case of Michoacán at least, the Mexican government does not possess a monopoly on the legitimate use of force.

Further, OCGs have made a point to protect said institutions. This includes public reprimand of violence against protected social actors such as clergy, doctors, school teachers and, “anyone who is dedicated to religion.” This discourse frames OCGs as the protectors of Mexico’s most sacred social classes.[34] The mention of priests and school teachers plays directly into the attitudes of most Mexicans as the previously cited polling suggests.

This is one way OCGs in Mexico use discourse to legitimize themselves. This creates a discourse in which they are the primary institution in the lives of the Mexican people under their control, subverting the state's authority in the realm of security.

Social Banditry and the Distribution of Goods and Services
Another example of these traits is the distribution of social services among desperate populations under OCG control. This was a catalyst for much of the academic interest in this field. Videos and images of OCG members distributing childrens toys are familiar on forums.[35]. There are also reports of the distribution of medication, food, loans, and other public services.[36]

These communities are subjected to the brutal violence that accompanies turf wars, disputes over payments to OCGs, and government resistance. Accounts of goods distribution serve as the antithesis of the incredible violence faced by local communities at the hands of OCGs. Criminal groups appear to be attempting to garner public support and or justification for their violent campaigns while making an effort to step in where there is a perception that the government is failing to do so. This is maybe best exemplified by recorded mobilization against the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic by way of the distribution of humanitarian aid to affected communities under OCG control.[37]

Again, by the theoretical observations of Hobsbawm, Bunker, and Sullivan, this is accounted for. Hobsbawm wrote that “social bandits” would manipulate the discourse of so-called “Robin Hoodism” to play into anti-authority sentiment among populations. These OCGs project themselves by presenting as actors stealing from the wealthy and returning the wealth to their homes and families. These acts are done in the face of a society that is seen as deeply flawed and corrupt, justifying this activity as well as their respected and or feared status.[38]

The use of “Narcocultra” as a Vehicle of Discourse
The phenomenon of “Narcocultura'' venerates these individual actors and organizations to construct narratives in which “narcos” are portrayed as folk heroes and understood to be righteous even in violence. These cultural portrayals are understood to be deeply intentional. A powerful exemplar of this reality is that of Edgar Quintero in the acclaimed documentary Narco Cultura. In it, Edgar, a member of the narcocorrido band Bukanas de Culiacán, is seen praying at an altar to Santa Muerte, the Saint of Death. The icon of Santa Muerte is draped in American currency. The audience sees Edgar perform his ballads, singing of the great exploits of the OCGs. Following these disturbing expressions of spirituality and reverence for the groups doing untold damage to his communities, the audience sees that Edgar is a jovial young man. He has two kids, a beautiful wife, and parents who deeply care for him. In the end, Edgar says his dream is to buy his parents a house.[39] This particular case serves as a fascinating intersection of all of the societal concepts that this research has explored and will continue to explore. Edgar is a deeply spiritual man; his house being decorated with icons of Catholicism. He is family-oriented. From what this research has explored, he seems to fit well within the societal framework established. Edgar also displays a true passionate dislike, or at least contempt, for the government, in his music and in his daily life. He operates outside of the law, being paid in cash, by criminals for whom he performs. His music accuses the government as being the aggressor when they and the OCGs come to blows.[40]

Edgar Quintero serves as a microcosm of a much larger discourse. His typical disposition, being a devout Catholic, loving father, and caring son, makes the dichotomy of the discourse he produces, one glamorizing violence, all the more unsettling.

Spirituality Discourse
Narcocultura” is maybe best exemplified by Jesús Malverde, a folk-saint particularly popular in Sinaloa, Mexico. Malverde is credited by devotees as the patron saint of bandits, narcos, and the poor. He has been called “the generous bandit,” [41], which displays vibrant parallels with existing robin-hood discourse surrounding Mexican OCGs. Malverde can be attributed to multiple facets of the discourse. He represents a nationalistic masculinity, a champion of the poor, and a chaotic challenger to the increased authoritarian climate of his period of origin, that being the early twentieth-century. Jesús Malverde is even often given the likeness of beloved Mexican actor Pedro Infante.[42] His popularity can also be attributed to economic insecurity, which in the past could be explained as fear of industrialization, and translated in the present to anxieties regarding globalization.

Jesús Malverde’s saint status among his followers opens the discourse towards religiosity among OCGs. The Catholic Church has a loud presence within the lives of most Mexicans and OCGs are keen to use this to their advantage. Religiosity is especially popular among the elderly and the poor—two key groups in furthering goals of legitimization.[43] It is here you can see the dichotomy within the discourse. On one hand, OCGs wish to influence the elderly, especially women, who are more inclined to hold traditional beliefs such as the importance of family and religion,[44] while also targeting the poor, usually male citizens, with promises of monetary success and power within their communities.

Further, figures such as Jesús Malverde serve as the exemplar, the icon for which the people are to admire and aspire to be. His masculinity, rebelliousness, dedication to faith and family, are all key characteristics of the discourse OCGs wish to disperse.

The Use of Visible Violence
The use of violent communication, through the display of desecrated corpses displaying messages targeted to the state and rivals, is a frequent issue for Mexican authorities. These messages often include notes regarding the corruption of the state and the righteousness of the violence against “criminals.” Such messages are often painted on cloth banners called “narcomantas,” ‘manta’ meaning blanket. A recent alarming example of such a “narcomanta” was found in the municipality of San Pedro Garza García, within the state of Nuevo León. Often considered one of the safest areas of the country, these banners warned local criminals against turning traitors against whichever OCG hung the banner in question. They also ordered local businesses to halt all “floor rights” payments while criticizing local officials for allowing the area to fall under the control of an outside OCG. Such abrasive and authoritative language in what used to be considered by locals a haven against crime displays a flagrant disregard for any governmental legitimacy in the region.
This builds upon existing discourse of the state being an untrustworthy institution and permeates an understanding that violence against it, and all outliers, is justified and to be expected.[45] Naturally, this sort of violence is shocking to anyone who witnesses it, but as an alternative to complete chaos, loyalty to a gang that can keep your community in order may be seen as a worthwhile exchange.

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As previously mentioned, these are people the local populations recognize, OCGs often recruit young men and the existing members are from similar backgrounds from the lower rungs of society. OCGs serve in contrast to the distant and disliked politicians that head the government. These tropes can be understood as an attempt to create an identity in which actors within OCGs are consolidating the trust of the people in substitution of political leaders and their parties; polls indicating that political parties are one of the least trusted institutions within Mexican society.[46]

It’s the broad conception of the state as untrustworthy and corrupt that allows this discourse to be commonplace and spread among the disillusioned. This discourse creates a culture where violence is an acceptable rebellious act against the corrupt state actors and the lower criminals, usually just rival OCGs. This not only justifies this violence in the eyes of some of the population but also among the individual actors operating within and adjacent to the OCGs.

All of these tropes, assert that the state not being capable of projecting force within their own country, as well as the general lack of satisfaction with the job the government has done in sustaining and improving life among Mexicans leads to worry over whether or not these groups are feeding a state-succeeding discourse.

Conclusion
With the OCG crisis acting as a specter over Mexican society, the serious study of this problem is as pertinent now as ever. The effect OCGs have on Mexican society, their tropes, and the discourses as well as identities created hold massive implications for Mexico and the region. For well over a decade the Mexican government has been steadily losing the confidence of foreign governments and its own people as this crisis has only gotten worse.

There are systemic and historical issues with the modern Mexican state and the discourse surrounding it. This discourse is not novel but the new discourse projected by the OCGs is compounding and becoming dangerous to the survival of the state. This discourse is creating an identity in which OCGs are seen as a viable alternative to the state in numerous arenas of life such as the distribution of goods and services as well as security and communal pride. The motivation for the projection of this discourse varies. Some surely are only distributing such discourse through the narratives outlined here for the purpose of casting a negative public perception on their rivals, in other words solely for financial gains, but understanding these concepts opens up different understandings of OCGs and their discourse.

The implications of motivation are massively important. How these groups see themselves and how members of the citizenry see them should certainly influence how the government understands them. This calls on discourse regarding terrorism, political motivation as opposed to monetary motivation and gangland goals. Whether or not the discourse outlined here constitutes any sort of political motivation, qualifying their actions as terrorism, is a theoretical question that academia must address without prejudice. The work surrounding this concept is highly coded in the language of the war on terror, notably outside of the Mexican context. This research proposes that such academic discourse should account for Sullivan and Bunker's interpretation of Hobsbawm’s theories on social banditry.

A hugely important concept to understand is that no two OCGs are the same. This research includes intentionally vague language to discuss broad narratives and understand the accompanying discourse. This practice can allow a broader audience to understand findings and apply them to the most realms of study and policy possible. These are society wide Mexican issues. There is no one group to concern yourself with like there may have been in the past. Coming to a broad understanding of tropes can assist policymakers and the public in comprehending such a large-scale crisis. This is why the work of Sullivan, Bunker, and the reportage of numerous contemporary journalists, scholars, writers, and more is so important. In the context of this research, Sullivan and Bunker are particularly pertinent. Their work presents a fresh lens to examine other regions and conflicts. Bunker and Sullivan’s interpretations have revitalized the link between social movements and criminality in countless different contexts. Using theoretical frameworks like this allows academia and government to work within common understandings and come to more nuanced conclusions. One potential avenue to further investigate could be the operational methodology of OCGs and their use of new media in supplying discourse.

Using that theoretical framework to come to a conclusion this research finds that OCGs do not presently reach the threshold established by Sullivan and Bunker. The renderings this paper discusses do not lead the author to believe these groups have met the standards established; while a trajectory to further state subverting activity is present as these groups amass power, it is not found that this crisis and its effects are irreversible. With investments in social services and infrastructure along with international cooperation to root out the most dangerous cells, a real solution to this problem can be found. Removing the most problematic and subversive actors while replacing their role within communities with a stronger, more present central government, will correct the discourse leading to a real solution.

Further, it is crucial to note the importance of the Mexican citizens caught up in this struggle between state and sub-state actors. These individuals and communities need a louder voice in the central government. This, as the research has led the author to believe, is at the heart of all conflicts of this nature. Lifting up the voices of the people who feel that for centuries they have been left behind is of the utmost importance.

Endnotes
[1] José Luis Pardo Veiras and Íñigo Arredondo,“Una guerra inventada y 350,000 muertos en México.” Washington Post. 14 June 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/es/post-opinion/2021/06/14/mexico-guerra-narc otrafico-calderon-homicidios-desaparecidos/.
[2] Julia Young, “The Revolution is Afraid.” Berkeley Center for Religion, Peace, and World Affairs, Georgetown University. 3 January 2020, https://berkleycenter.georgetown.edu/responses/the-revolution-is-afraid-cristeros- and-sinarquistas-in-mexico-and-the-united-states-1926-1950.
[3] Jorge Castañeda, participation in “Mañana Forever, C-SPAN, webinar, sponsored by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 10 July 2011, video, <em>Manana Forever?: Mexico and the Mexicans</em>.
[4] Eric Hobsbawm, Bandits. New York: Pantheon Books,1981.
[5] Mary Beth Sheridan, “Mexico’s Government Control Threatened by Criminal Groups.” Washington Post. 29 October 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/mexico-losing-control/mexi co-violence-drug-cartels-zacatecas/.
[6] Sylvia Longmire and John Longmire, “Redefining Terrorism: Why Mexican Drug Trafficking is More than Just Organized Crime.” Journal of Strategic Security. Vol. 1, no. 1, 2008: pp. 50–51, https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1044&context=jss.
[7] Phil Williams, “The Terrorism Debate Over Mexican Drug Trafficking Violence.” Terrorism and Political Violence. Vol. 24, no. 2. 2012: pp. 259-278, https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2011.653019.
[8] See Robert Bunker and John P. Sullivan, “Cartel Evolution: Potentials and Consequences.” Transnational Organized Crime. Vol. 4, no. 2, Summer 1998, pp. 55–74: https://www.academia.edu/3173100/Cartel_Evolution_Potentials_and_Consequences and Robert Bunker and John P. Sullivan, “Cartel evolution revisited: third phase cartel potentials and alternative futures in Mexico.” Small Wars & Insurgencies. 12 March 2010: pp. 31–46, https://doi.org/10.1080/09592310903561379.
[9] See John P. Sullivan and Robert J. Bunker, “Drug Cartels, Street Gangs, and Warlords,” Small Wars & Insurgencies. Vol. 13, no. 2, 2002, pp. 40–53: https://doi.org/10.1080/09592310208559180; John P. Sullivan and Robert J. Bunker, “Rethinking insurgency: criminality, and societal warfare in the Americas.” Small Wars & Insurgencies. Vol. 22, no. 5, 2011, https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2011.625720; and Robert J. Bunker, “Criminal (Cartel & Gang) Insurgencies in Mexico and the Americas: What you need to know, not what you want to hear. Has Merida Evolved? Part One: The Evolution of Drug Cartels and the Threat to Mexico’s Governance”. Congressional testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere. Washington, DC. 13 September 2011, pp.1–25, https://scholarship.claremont.edu/c...httpsredir=1&article=1154&context=cgu_fac_pub.
[10] Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, Michelle Keck, and Jose Nava, “Losing the Monopoly of Violence: The State, a Drug War and the Paramilitarization of Organized Crime in Mexico.” State Crime Journal. 2006: pp. 77–95, https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.13169/statecrime.4.1.0077.
[11] John P. Sullivan, “Criminal Insurgency: Narcocultura, Social Banditry, and Information Operations.” Small Wars Journal, 3 December 2012, Criminal Insurgency: Narcocultura, Social Banditry, and Information Operations | Small Wars Journal and John P. Sullivan, “From Drug Wars to Criminal Insurgency: Mexican Cartels, Criminal Enclaves and Criminal Insurgency in Mexico and Central America. Implications for Global Security.” Working Paper No9. Paris: Fondation Maison des sciences de l’homme (June 2011/April 2012), https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00694083/document. For a later review, see John P. Sullivan and Nathan P. Jones, “Bandits, Urban Guerrillas, and Criminal Insurgents: Crime and Resistance in Latin America,” Chapter 6 in Pablo A. Baisotti, Ed., Problems and Alternatives in the Modern Americas. New York: Routledge, 2021, Problems and Alternatives in the Modern Americas | Pablo A. Baisotti |.
[12] Ibid. In addition, see Alma Guillermoprieto, “The Narcovirus,” Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies, Spring, pp. 2-9: https://clacs.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/publications/brlas-spring2009-guillermoprieto.pdf.
[13] Arji Ouweneel, “What was Behind Mexico’s Peasant Revolution.” European Review of Latin American and Caribbean Studies. Vol. 48. June 1990: pp.99-112, https://www.jstor.org/stable/25675451.
[14] Howard Campbell, “Narco-Propaganda in the Mexican ‘Drug War’: An Anthropological Perspective.” Latin American Perspectives. Vol. 41, no. 2: 2014: pp. 60–74, https://www.jstor.org/stable/24575498.
[15] Op. cit., Sullivan and Bunker, ““Rethinking insurgency” at Note 9.
[16] Eric Hobsbawm, Primitive Rebels: Studies in Archaic Forms of Social Movement in the 19th and 20th Centuries. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1959.
[17] Op. cit., Arji Ouweneel, “What was Behind Mexico’s Peasant Revolution” at Note 13.
[18] Op. cit., Sullivan and Bunker, ““Rethinking insurgency” at Note 9.
[19] Ioan Grillo, El Narco: Inside Mexico’s Criminal Insurgency. New York: Bloomsbury Publishing, 2012.
[20] Jenna Bowley, “Robin Hood or Villain.” Thesis, Honors College 109, The University of Maine, 2013: pp. 6–46, https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/honors/109.
[21] Op. cit., Sullivan and Bunker, ““Rethinking insurgency” at Note 9.
[22] Op cit. Bunker and Sullivan “Cartel Evolution” at Note 8.
[23] Ibid.
[24] Mexican President Disputes DEA Estimates of Cartel Strength.” Reuters. 28 July 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexican-president-refutes-dea-estimate s-cartel-strength-2023-07-28/.
[25] See “Global Corruption Barometer: Latin America and the Caribbean.” Transparency International, 2019, https://www.transparency.org/en/gcb/latin-america/latin-america-and-the-caribbean-x-edition-2019 and Global Study on Homicide, Vienna: UNDOC (United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime). 2019, https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/gsh/Booklet1.pdf.
[26] “Encuesta Nacional de Calidad e Impacto Gubernamental.” Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI). 2019, https://www.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/programas/encig/2019/doc/encig2019_princi pales_resultados.pdf.
[27] “Encuesta Nacional de Calidad e Impacto Gubernamental.” Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI). 2021, https://www.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/programas/encig/2021/doc/encig2021_princi pales_resultados.pdf.
[28] Op. cit., Sheridan, “Mexico’s Government Control Threatened by Criminal Groups” at Note 5.
[29] Op. cit., Hobsbawm, Primitive Rebels at Note 16.
[30] Op. cit., INEGI at Note 26.
[31] Ibid.
[32] Op. cit., Sullivan and Bunker, ““Rethinking insurgency” at Note 9.
[33] Sol Prendido, “Mencho Oseguera Video Message to Citizens of Michoacán.” Borderland Beat. 3 June 2023, https://www.borderlandbeat.com/2023/06/mencho-oseguera-video-message-to.html?m=1.
[34] Daniel Weisz Argomedo, “Calling to End the Killing of the Clergy: Information Operations of the Cártel de Jalisco Nueva Generación.” Small Wars Journal. 20 August 2022, https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/a...operations-cartel-de-jalisco-nueva-generacion.
[35] Op. cit., Prendido, ““Mencho Oseguera Video” at Note 32.
[36] John P. Sullivan, “Skullduggery or Social Banditry? Cartel Humanitarian Aid.” Small Wars Journal. 25 November 2013, https://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/mexican-cartel-strategic-note-no-15-skulldugge ry-or-social-banditry-cartel-humanitarian-aid.
[37] Op. cit., Sullivan and Bunker, “Rethinking insurgency” at Note 9.
[38] Op. cit., Hobsbawm, Bandits at Note 4.
[39] Narco Cultura. Directed by Shaul Schwarz. New York: Docurama Films, 2013. See also, John P. Sullivan, Khirin A. Bunker, and Robert J. Bunker, “Film Review: Narco Cultura – A Tale of Three Cities. Small Wars Journal. 20 December 2013, https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/film-review-narco-cultura-tale-three-cities.
[40] Ibid.
[41] William Calvo-Quirós, Jesús Malverde: A Saint of the People, for the People' Undocumented Saints: The Politics of Migrating Devotions. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2022.
[42] Ibid.
[43] “Religion in Latin America: Widespread Change in a Historically Catholic Region.” Pew Research Center. 2014, https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/wp-content/uploads/sites/7/2014/11/Religion-in-Latin-America-11-12-PM-full-PDF.pdf.
[44] Ibid.
[45] Arturo Angel, “Mexico Narco Messages Reflect Weakness of State Institutions.” InSight Crime. 1 May 2017, https://insightcrime.org/news/analysis/narco-messages-reflect-weakness-state-institutions-study/.
[46] Op. cit., INEGI at Note 26.
Categories: El Centro

About the Author(s)​


Chase Whitehouse
Chase Whitehouse
is an undergraduate student at American University in Washington, DC. He is pursuing a bachelor's degree in International Relations and aspires to attain a PhD in Political Science. He is currently a fellow at the Pericles Institute and a reviewer for Clocks and Clouds, American University’s Journal on National and Global Affairs.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use......

WORRYWURST AT THE MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE​

RICHARD FONTAINE
FEBRUARY 19, 2024
COMMENTARY

The foreign policy elite descended on Munich again this weekend, primed for beer, brats, and bilats. The 2024 Munich Security Conference was crowded and frenzied, as security details jostled delegates straining to connect with movers and shakers. The gathering boasted both an online portal and a smartphone app, and participants used them to set up meetings with old friends and total unknowns. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the affair “diplomatic speed dating,” and that about nailed it.

For all the conviviality, however, a somber mood prevailed this year. I’ve been attending this conference for almost two decades now, and the ratio of worries to solutions has rarely felt higher. One year ago, the trans-Atlantic allies were united in their resolve to resist Russia and help Ukraine. Kyiv had recently retaken vast swaths of territory, Moscow’s offensive was sputtering, and hopes for the Ukrainian counteroffensive were high. There were worries about Western industrial production, the sustainability of a long campaign, and balancing a focus on European security with challenges in Asia. But the 2023 Munich zeitgeist was more steely-eyed resolve than wide-eyed alarm.

This year was different.

Russia on the March
Just as the sessions were set to commence, the shocking news of Alexei Navalny’s death stunned participants. Vice President Kamala Harris addressed it up front. “If confirmed,” she said, “this would be a further sign of Vladamir Putin’s brutality. Whatever story they tell, let us be clear: Russia is responsible.” After her speech, and to the audience’s surprise, Yulia Navalnaya, wife of Alexei, then took the stage. She addressed a silenced ballroom with utter composure. Upon hearing the devastating news of her husband’s death, she said, “I thought: should I stand here before you or should I go back to my children? And then I thought: what would have Alexei done in my place? And I’m sure that he would have been standing here on this stage.” After she called with great dignity and eloquence for Putin to be held accountable, the audience rose in sustained applause.

Navalny’s passing hung over the weekend’s proceedings and seemed to reflect Moscow’s new trajectory. Gone were the hopes of a major Ukrainian counteroffensive or claims that Western sanctions would grind Russia’s economy to a halt. So too were predictions that last year’s Prigozhin mutiny would irreparably harm Putin’s domestic invincibility. Instead, participants now worried about Russia retaking land in Ukraine — and during the weekend the town of Avdiivka fell, marking the first major Russian territorial gain since May 2023. Ukraine is running low on ammunition across the eastern front (the head of Ukrainian forces in the south said that the Russians enjoy a 10-to-1 shell advantage), missile and air defense stocks are dwindling, and — absent U.S. assistance — government coffers will soon be bare. Russia, on the other hand, has created a wartime economy, is absorbing ammunition and weapons from North Korea and Iran, and is apparently willing to throw away many more Russian lives in its pursuit of conquest. In the meantime, Putin grows more confident, droning on about ancient history with Tucker Carlson and declaring “Forward! Success! To new borders!” before his countrymen. Reports suggest that he is planning to put a nuclear weapon in space.

For the first time, there was serious talk about an eventual Russian threat to NATO territory. Previously, Russia’s attack on Ukraine was seen, even in Europe, as an affront to the international order, and an impermissible attempt to forcibly change borders. Sentiment has begun to shift toward a view that Russia must be stopped in Ukraine lest it move on to other targets, like Moldova and eventually even NATO countries. The Danish defense minister said that Russia is rearming quickly and could attack NATO within three to five years. The chair of Germany’s Bundestag defense committee put the timeline at five to eight years and the Estonian intelligence service said it was more like a decade.

There was not much consensus to be found on how exactly to stop Russia in Ukraine, beyond calls to provide Kyiv with more military, economic, and humanitarian support. U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance observed that Ukraine would need to make territorial concessions to end the conflict. European leaders pledged new efforts to ramp up weapons production and touted their recent $50 billion assistance pledge. Last month NATO signed a contract to produce $1.2 billion in artillery rounds and Denmark’s prime minister announced in Munich that her country would transfer all of its artillery to Kyiv. Czech President Petr Pavel said that an additional 800,000 artillery rounds could be sourced abroad and delivered to Ukraine in weeks — if a funding source were available.

Europeans talked up the need to boost their own defense spending and industrial output. Germany is expected to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense this year for the first time since the 1990s. Chancellor Olaf Scholz reaffirmed his pledge to maintain defense spending at 2 percent of GDP through “the 2020s, 2030s, and beyond.” His defense minister said German defense spending could one day climb to 3.5 percent of GDP. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, considered a front-runner to replace Jens Stoltenberg as NATO secretary general, said that Europe should “stop moaning and whining” about Donald Trump and instead start spending more on defense. NATO projects that 18 of its 31 members will hit the 2 percent mark this year, up from 2014 when only three members did so. Even so, today the European average remains just 1.6 percent, while Russia this year plans to spend 6 percent of its GDP on defense.

On one matter, everyone — Europeans, Ukrainians, Americans, and delegates from other regions — concurred: What America does, or fails to do, will be vital.

This realization provoked big worry number two.

Come Home America?

The inability of Congress thus far to pass a supplemental aid package, including over $60 billion in assistance to Ukraine, has rattled Europeans and others. Trump’s recent comment — that he would encourage Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” to inadequately spending NATO countries — combined with the real potential of a second Trump term to worry them further. Washington has repeatedly pledged to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes.” What happens if it doesn’t?

The vice president sought to calm such anxieties. “I know there are questions here in Europe and around the world,” she said, “about the future of America’s role of global leadership. These are questions the American people must also ask ourselves.” It is, she continued, “in the fundamental interest of the American people for the United States to fulfill our longstanding role of global leadership,” and in partial fulfillment of that role, the administration “will work to secure critical weapons and resources that Ukraine so badly needs.” Yet with a House of Representatives led by the other party and a presidential election less than nine months away, no administration official could fully reassure skittish allies.

Harris and other administration officials pledged allied solidarity, deep engagement, and sustained support. But that might only be so if President Joe Biden is re-elected. If Trump is elected, the United States might still do the right thing after trying everything else. The reality remains: No matter who said what, next year might see the arrival in Munich of a starkly different U.S. team, with very different priorities.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, attending in person, made the case for urgency. He, too, was focused on American assistance. Referring to the House of Representatives’ two-week recess, he reminded the audience that “dictators do not go on vacation.” “Keeping Ukraine in artificial deficits of weapons,” Zelenskyy said, “particularly in deficits of artillery and long-range capabilities, allows Putin to adapt to the current intensity of the war. This self-weakening of democracy over time undermines our joint results.”

With Russia up and Europe worried, was Washington in or out? Long gone is talk about European “strategic autonomy” or about accommodations with other great powers. Europeans want the United States active and on their side. And while it has grown unfashionable to talk of America as an indispensable power, on the matter of Ukraine and Russia at least, it is.

Everything Else Everywhere, All at Once

European security issues quite naturally dominated a conference founded to discuss important but sometimes arcane trans-Atlantic matters. Yet the war in Gaza raged on and Israeli President Isaac Herzog made an impassioned plea for the return of Hamas-held hostages — even drawing attention to former hostages standing in the balcony. Herzog reportedly met quietly in Munich with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani, raising hopes that a return might be in the offing — and perhaps even an end to the fighting on the horizon.

Iranian officials, who for years appeared in Munich to rail against the West, were nowhere to be seen, again this year disinvited by the organizers. The “Axis of Resistance” and Iran’s role in destabilizing the Middle East garnered a decent amount of discussion, as did the prospects for a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine issue. Few concrete proposals emerged.

Then there was China. While Beijing persistently occupies Washington’s foreign policy minds, China produced only a minor ripple in Munich. Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke, sticking to well-rehearsed bromides about Taiwanese independence and the dangers of economic decoupling. Wang met with Blinken and, unlike last year, there were no immediate reports of diplomatic fireworks behind the scenes. If things felt better in Europe, and if the U.S. trajectory were not so uncertain, it’s likely that delegates would focus to a far greater extent on Asia’s promise and China’s challenge. This time around, there were more urgent issues to worry about.

* * *

As this informal report describes, the mood was downbeat in Munich. Perhaps I’ve simply been to too many of these conferences over the years, but things seemed to me too pessimistic. It’s true: Russia has some advantages in Ukraine it previously lacked, and Kyiv is running low on weapons and manpower. Yes, there is trouble across the world, from the Middle East to Europe to the Indo-Pacific and beyond. The U.S. Congress is tied in knots and has trouble agreeing on solutions to major national challenges. And of course, it’s an election year in the United States, with two very different presidential candidates on offer and deep uncertainty about the way ahead.

And yet. The allies — advanced democracies across the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific — retain enormous strengths and advantages of their own. It is the task of leaders to convert those into specific actions that protect their interests and uphold an orderly world. That is entirely possible.

Worry is fine insofar as it goes. Next year in Munich, I hope we’ll hear less in the way of anxiety-ridden diagnoses and more about specific prescriptions. Better still would be commitments to action, such as more Denmark-like pledges of weapons transfers to Ukraine, increased defense spending by the nearly half of NATO countries still under the 2 percent threshold, agreements on joint industrial production, moves to draw down Russia’s frozen foreign reserves, additional nations joining Red Sea patrols, and countries harmonizing their export controls and other economic steps vis-à-vis China.

Shared uneasiness should spur common action. We can envision the alternatives.



BECOME A MEMBER


Richard Fontaine is chief executive officer of the Center for a New American Security and coauthor of the forthcoming book Lost Decade: The US Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power.
 

jward

passin' thru
the-sun.com


British nuclear sub missile launch FAILS as Trident dramatically misfires and ‘plops’ into ocean just yar...​


Jerome Starkey


A TRIDENT missile dramatically misfired and crashed into the ocean yards from the British nuclear submarine that launched it, The Sun can reveal.
The second failed launch in a row – after a misfire in 2016 – happened while Defence Secretary Grant Shapps was on board HMS Vanguard to witness the test.
HMS Vanguard was under the surface but was not hit by the 44ft missile as it plunged back into the Atlantic
5
HMS Vanguard was under the surface but was not hit by the 44ft missile as it plunged back into the AtlanticCredit: Military Picture Libary
It is the second failed test since 2016, when a Trident fired from HMS Vengeance veered off course and self-destructed
5
It is the second failed test since 2016, when a Trident fired from HMS Vengeance veered off course and self-destructed
The Ministry of Defence confirmed an “anomaly occurred” during the January 30 exercise off Florida, but the nuclear deterrent remains “effective".
The crew on the nuclear sub perfectly completed their doomsday drill, and the Trident 2 missile was propelled into the air by compressed gas in the launch tube.
But its first stage boosters did not ignite and the 58-ton missile – fitted with dummy warheads – splashed into the ocean and sank.
A source said: “It left the submarine but it just went plop, right next to them.”
HMS Vanguard was under the surface, hovering at launch depth, but was not hit by the 44ft missile as it plunged back into the Atlantic.
Immediately, a frantic probe began to find out what went wrong and a search ordered to recover the top-secret missile technology from the seabed at Port Canaveral, Florida.
It is the second failed test since 2016, when a Trident fired from HMS Vengeance veered off course and self-destructed.
But, despite the setback, officials insist they are confident that the misfire was “event specific”.

Most read in The Sun​


'ANOMALY OCCURED'​

Crucially, it is understood that had the firing taken place on a real patrol mission rather than under test conditions it would have been successful.
No further details are being made public about what went wrong on the grounds of “national security”.
Did Downing Street hide Trident missile test failure just weeks before MPs voted?
In a statement issued to The Sun, the Ministry of Defence said: “HMS Vanguard and her crew have been proven fully capable of operating the UK’s Continuous At-Sea Deterrent, passing all tests during a recent demonstration and shakedown operation (DASO) - a routine test to confirm that the submarine can return to service following deep maintenance work.
“The test has reaffirmed the effectiveness of the UK’s nuclear deterrent, in which we have absolute confidence. During the test an anomaly occurred.
As a matter of national security, we cannot provide further information on this, however we are confident that the anomaly was event specific, and therefore there are no implications for the reliability of the wider Trident missile systems and stockpile.
“The UK’s nuclear deterrent remains safe, secure and effective.”


5
Ministers are expected to update MPs today in the Commons on the January 30 incident at the US’s secure Navy Port site. First Sea Lord Admiral Sir Ben Key was also onboard the sub at the time.
Officials stress Trident remains one of the most reliable weapons systems in the world, having successfully completed more than 190 tests involving the UK and US.
The UK has fired 12 Trident 2 missiles since the weapons entered service with the Royal Navy in 1994. But the two most recent ones failed.
In June 2016 a Trident 2 blasted out of HMS Vengeance and its rocket boosters successfully ignited. But moments later it veered off course, reportedly towards the US, and automatically self-destructed.
Later, Theresa May’s government was accused of covering up the failed launch as parliament was due to vote on renewing the UK’s nuclear deterrent.

AGEING FLEET​

MPs backed a plan overwhelmingly to spend £40billion on “upgrading the nuclear deterrent”.
It means the ageing fleet of Vanguard subs are due to be replaced with Dreadnought-class successors in the 2030s.
The Trident fired from HMS Vanguard was due to fly 3,700 miles from off the coast of Florida to an impact point in the mid-Atlantic between Brazil and West Africa.
Its intended route was revealed in warning to ships and aircraft from National Geo Spatial Intelligence Agency.
The target was 1,000 miles closer than that of the failed 2016 launch and less than half the Trident 2 missile’s reported range of 7,500 miles.
Trident 2 missiles are designed to blast to the edge of space, reaching speeds of 13,600mph, before re-entering the earth’s atmosphere with a devastating payload of up to 12 nuclear warheads.
They first entered service with the US navy 34 years ago and four years later with the Royal Navy.

£17MILLION COST​

Yet the missile’s makers Lockheed Martin insist Trident 2s remain “the most advanced ballistic missiles in the world”.
It said they have been successfully test-fired a “record” 191 times since 1989, most recently in September when the USS Louisiana, an Ohio-class nuclear-powered sub, conducted a demonstration and shakedown operation in the Pacific.
British launches are rarer because each missile costs upwards of £17million.

Read More on The US Sun​

The last successful UK launch came in October 2012, when HMS Vigilant fired the missile after a refit and sea trials.
It comes amid a drumbeat of warnings that the world is careering towards World War Three, with increased nuclear sabre-rattling which underlines the crucial role played by Trident.

HIDDEN NUKE STRIKE-BACK​


2016-rhu-scotland-hms-vigilant-860766327.jpg

BRITAIN’S nuclear deterrent is the last line of defence to blast our enemies to oblivion in the event they launch first.
The plan relies on a nuclear-armed submarine always being at sea — hidden beneath the waves or the polar ice cap to survive a first strike against the British mainland and ready to shoot back.
That takes a group of brave men and women who spend months at a time on top-secret underwater patrols, largely cut off from their loved ones back at home.
The secrecy around the sub’s position means the crew rarely — if ever — are able to broadcast messages, which would give away their position.
The crews of the Vanguard-class subs can only receive brief text messages, known as family-grams, and they cannot send anything home.
They will not even be told if a loved one dies because there is nothing they can do about it.
One of the only times the sub will break its radio silence is if a crew member’s life is in danger.
In the event of a nuclear conflict, each of the Navy’s four Vanguard subs can fire 16 Trident 2 missiles.
Each of the rockets is armed with multiple nuclear warheads.
The missiles blast off to the edge of space and navigate by the stars at speeds of up to 13,600mph, before re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere with devastating nuclear payloads.
A Navy source said each of the subs carry more explosive power than was dropped during the entirety of World War Two.
A Royal Navy nuclear armed submarine has been constantly on patrol since April 1969.
If the crews lose contact with the UK government they have orders to scan the airwaves for BBC Radio 4 as proof the UK still exists.
Three days without the Today Programme is a sign of Armageddon and the Captain can open the letter of last resort — a handwritten note from the Prime Minister with instructions on what to do next.
Despite the misfire last month, the MoD said HMS Vanguard and her 149 crew had “proven fully capable of operating the UK’s Continuous At Sea Deterrent, passing all tests”.
It went on the say: “The test has reaffirmed the effectiveness of the UK’s nuclear deterrent, in which we have absolute confidence.”


British nuke sub missile launch FAILS as Trident misfires and 'plops' into sea
 

jward

passin' thru
Ragıp Soylu
@ragipsoylu

NEW: Somalia President officially confirms that the deal with Turkey gives the mandate the protect the Somali territorial waters for the next 10 years as Ankara is also authorised to establish, train and equip a national navy for the country.

Somali Parliament’s both chambers also ratified the agreement, per local reports.

Read the details below


middleeasteye.net
Somalia authorises Turkey to defend its sea waters in 'historic' deal
By Ragip Soylu



Somali government approves a defence deal that reportedly mandates Ankara to build a navy for the country and defend its coastline while doing so

Published date: 21 February 2024 14:15 GMT | Last update: 1 day 7 hours ago

The Somali cabinet formally approved a defence and economic cooperation agreement with Turkey on Wednesday, authorising Ankara to build, train and equip the Somali navy and reportedly defend its territorial waters amid tensions with Ethiopia.

Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre described the agreement at the cabinet meeting as a “historic” one that would become a “legacy” for the Somali nation in the long run.

“This agreement will put an end to the fear of terrorism, pirates, illegal fishing, poisoning, abuse and threats from abroad,” he said, according to the local reports.

A Somali source familiar with the deal told Middle East Eye that the agreement does indeed authorise the Turkish navy to defend Somali sea waters if necessary for the next 10 years.

A Turkish defence official declined to comment, saying that the contents of the agreement would be public simultaneously as it is ratified by the Turkish parliament and the president. “We cannot reveal the details as it has a long way to be ratified,” the official added.


The Turkish Navy already operates off the shore of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden under a UN mission to combat piracy and armed robbery since 2009.

Somali Defence Minister Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur signed the “framework agreement on defence and economic cooperation” in Ankara on 8 February, in a meeting with his Turkish counterpart Yasar Guler.

“In our meetings, which further strengthened our relations, we reiterated the importance we attach to Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Guler said, according to a readout by the Turkish defence ministry.

Garowe Online, a Somali news website, said that the president of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, was scheduled to make a speech about the deal and provide details on Wednesday in a closed-door meeting of the two houses of parliament.
Protecting Somali waters

Turkey has been training Somali soldiers in recent years to contribute to the latter's attempts to build a national army. Ankara has a large military base in Mogadishu and a Turkish firm is running its airport.

Ethiopia last month signed an agreement that grants it naval and commercial access to ports along Somaliland’s coast, in exchange for recognition of the breakaways region’s independence.

From drought to floods: Deadly cocktail of war and climate change takes toll in Somalia

Read More »

Somalia strongly condemned the move, and Turkey backed Mogadishu in the affair.

Ankara also has close ties with Ethiopia, arming it with military drones that prevented the seizure of its capital by Tigrayan forces in 2022.

“The agreement stipulates that Turkey will receive 30 percent of the revenue from the Somali exclusive economic zone known for abundant marine resources,” Garowe Online said.

“The agreement emphasises the fight against illegal fishing in Somali waters, with Turkey committed to building and equipping the Somali navy to take on this responsibility."

The deal, upon acceptance by both sides, is set to commence within 24 hours of its ratification, and entrusts Turkey with the responsibility of protecting the Somali waters in case of maritime violations.

The UN Security Council in December removed an arms embargo against Somalia’s government in place for more than 30 years, bolstering the government’s mandate.

Middle East Eye delivers independent and unrivalled coverage and analysis of the Middle East, North Africa and beyond. To learn more about republishing this content and the associated fees, please fill out this form. More about MEE can be found here.



 
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