ALERT RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE - Consolidated Thread

Ukraine Bakhmut Crisis Deepens, Zelensky Fires Key Adviser, Bloomberg Confirms Russian Oil Surge​

Runtime - 1:10:21 (run at least 1.5 speed for easier listening)

Cedar Lake said:

Last Updated: 16th January, 2023 20:24 IST

Russia Blames Ukraine For Dnipro Apartment Building Rocket Crash As Death Toll Reaches 40​

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that the fall of the rocket in Dnipro, Ukraine occurred as a result of the work of Ukraine's defence system.​

Written By
Digital Desk

Image: AP
The death toll from a Russian missile strike in the Ukrainian south-central city of Dnipro rose to 40 on Monday with dozens more missing, The Guardian reported citing a local official. Dozens are still missing with 75 people wounded in the strike, including 14 children. The victims from the attack included a 15-year-old girl, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his latest nightly address. Emergency crews worked through the frigid night and all day at the multi-story residential building, where officials said about 1,700 people lived before the strike on Saturday, reported AP.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Monday said that the fall of the rocket in Dnipro occurred as a result of the work of Ukraine's air defenсe systems. "You heard the conclusions that representatives of the Ukrainian side made. They said that, in fact, this tragedy occurred as a result of the action of air defence counter-missiles,” Peskov told reporters. The Russian Armed Forces do not strike either residential buildings or social infrastructure facilities, reported Russia-based outlet Pravada. "It is military targets that get struck — either obvious or camouflaged ones," Dmitry Peskov added.
On Sunday, Aleksey Arestovych, advisor to the office of the Ukrainian president, stated that the rocket that landed on the nine-story residential building in Dnipro was shot down by the Ukrainian air defense system. The rocket exploded as it crashed into the entrance of the building, reported Pravada.

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View: https://twitter.com/MilitaryEmpire/status/1614723921160425472

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1614723921160425472

@MilitaryEmpire

Footage of yesterday's incident in the #Dnipro. The consequences of the fall of two missiles. Two fires are visible: one from an air defense missile and the other from a downed cruise missile. A nine-story building, which was hit by an X-22 missile, is on the right.


[URL='https://twitter.com/MilitaryEmpire']
@MilitaryEmpire





POV: 48°25'18.1"N 35°03'59.0"E The video below confirms that in addition to the explosion that destroyed a section of the building, there was another explosion the effects of which can be seen on the opposite side of the street.


Doc1 said just a day or two ago that hitting an apartment building just doesn't make sense, especially with military targets everywhere.
Pridneprovskaya Thermal Power Plant & Pivdenmash are within a few kilometers of the 9 story building. see maps below.
Pictures show 2 separate different explosions in 2 separate locations.
The consequences of the fall of two missiles.
1 Russian missile can't be in two places at the same time.
1 air defense missile hits one cruise missile which lands on building.
Two fires are visible: one from an air defense missile and the other from a downed cruise missile. A nine-story building, which was hit by an X-22 missile, is on the right.
So at the end of it, The Russian and the Ukrainian were both correct in their separate statements.
In the USA, my government calls this collateral damage.

Mark Krutov
@kromark
Jan 15

We've seen many Russian rocket strikes even with guided missiles being very inaccurate. It doesn't lift the responsibility for this crime from Russia, but the Pridneprovskaya Thermal Power Plant is just a few kilometers away from the building hit (TPP's have been hit several times during this war)
https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1614551019408576513/photo/1


[URL='https://twitter.com/kromark'][/URL]
Mark Krutov

@kromark

PivdenMash and the residential building which have been hit on the map:
https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1614560893181870080/photo/1
Pivdenmash produces spacecraft, launch vehicles (rockets), liquid-propellant rockets, landing gears, castings, forgings, tractors, tools, and industrial products.

CaryC said:

Think about who said it, and can others in the admin say it, and what he said.

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This is a huge blow to the Ukrainian Leadership, assuming its true. I heard another rumor he might have to to flee to Russia so he isn't Drafted and sent to the front.

Oreally said:

i subscribe to Quora, and this question and answer was posted today.

at Quora, no one is anonymous.

most other people on that feed think the original questioner is russian since it his first and only post inn five years of being signed up there.


Roland Bartetzko
·
Follow
Lives in Ukraine (2022–present)Jan 6

Ukraine is losing the war. NATO countries are bleeding. A huge new attack from the Russians is eminent. Is now not a good time to stop this madness? Should NATO not stop providing weaponry and facilitate a diplomatic solution?
The US, France, and Germany just decided they'll send another weapons package to Ukraine.
I don’t use this term lightly but this time we can talk about the introduction of game-changing systems:

• 50 US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicles (IFV),
• 40 German “Marder” IFVs, and
• an unknown number of French AMX-10 RC light tanks.

German Armored Infantry (Panzergrenadiere) with a “Marder” armored infantry fighting vehicle. (Photo: Junge Freiheit)
And this is probably only the beginning, there’s more to come. As soon as these weapons are on the battlefield, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to conduct what is called combined arms warfare operations, for the very first time:
All major weapons systems you need for an effective armored attack are now available to them:

• Tanks (T 72 etc. plus AMX 10)
• IFVs (Marders and Bradleys)
• Anti-Air systems (German Gepards)
• Artillery (Panzerhaubitze 2000 and others)

Without the Bradleys and the Marders, the Ukrainian infantry was simply unable to follow their tanks. Their vehicles were either too lightly armored to be used on a hot battlefield (the M113, for example) or they were unable to keep up with the tanks in heavy terrain (the Boxers, and all other wheeled vehicles).

Now every vehicle the Ukrainian Army needs to conduct a “classical” armored operation is heavily armored and on tracks. This means they can work together.

We can expect major combat operations involving these vehicles as soon as in late March or April. Based on what we’ve seen so far on the battlefield, we can expect these operations to be highly successful.


There’s nothing the Russians can do about it. They don’t have the means to counter this kind of attacks. All they can do is hope that the Americans and Germans don’t decide to donate their modern Main Battle Tanks (Abrams and Leopard 2) to Ukraine. If this happens, I wouldn’t want to be an occupier living in Donetsk or Crimea.

To answer the question: Ukraine isn’t losing this war. The free world is on their side and together, we will prevail.

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Dude, that is complete rubbish. Seriously. I was an officer in US army in the cavalry... tanks, scouts & mortars. I can look at the news about the battlefield, apply modern technology, consider logistics, see through the psy-ops played by each side, and do simple math. If those vehicles and weapons systems are a threat (and they are in an irritating way) Russia will launch a blocking action along the Polish border while pushing a beach-head through and around Odessa. The main action by Russia will likely be finished by the end of March.

Ukraine is woefully getting their asses handed to them every day. They are losing 2 battalions per week. Can you count? Try it. Add up the numbers if you can find them and see what you come up with.

I was trained on some of the systems on that battlefield. The soldiers there are not going to be skilled at shooting those tanks or the missile systems in a few weeks of training. Gunnery, vehicle maneuvering, communications systems, cleaning, etc. And repairs/maintenance? No way. Even battlefield expedient actions take time to learn. How much would you expect a few high school graduates with no prior experience, to be able to rebuild the engine, transmission or just replace a head gasket in your car after 2 weeks of training? And throw in brakes, suspension system, tire changes, electrical and sensor systems. Now multiply that by 10. Make an error and your weapons system can be a total failure in combat.

January 17, 2023

Ukraine SitRep - Media Ignorance, Counter-Artillery War, Three Lost Armies​

Yves Smith asks:


What if Russia Won the Ukraine War but the Western Press Didn’t Notice?


She points to several headlines which, despite decisive Russian victories like its taking of Soledar, present the Ukraine as winning the war:

Nevertheless, Soledar has fallen and the loss of Bakhmut looks baked in, absent horrific Russian errors. The so-called Zelensky line is breaking even before Russia has put its recently-mobilized forces to work in a serious way. Regular commentators are waiting for the Russian hammer to fall, although Russia may simply grind more forcefully by pressing harder at more points along the very long line of contact. Remember one concern on the Russian side is avoiding “winning” in a way that leads to NATO panic and desperate action ... not that the Collective West’s fragile emotional state can be readily managed.
With that context, you’d expect some members of the press to have worked out that things are not going very well for Ukraine and the classic cowboy movie rescue of the calvary riding over the hill (here in the form of tanks and artillery) will be too little, too late.
Instead, the media seems to be trying to integrate snippets of facts on the ground with the heroic tale of inevitable Ukraine victory.

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That is certainly correct for the wide majority of the stories, which claim that Soledar and Bahkmut, are irrelevant towns, but some pieces are creeping up that differ. A few days ago the Washington Post headlined:


Bloody Bakhmut siege poses risks for Ukraine

Ukraine faces difficult choices about how much deeper its military should get drawn into a protracted fight over the besieged city of Bakhmut, as Kyiv prepares for a new counteroffensive elsewhere on the front that requires conserving weapons, ammunition and experienced fighters.
Russia has escalated its assault in the area in recent days, unleashing savage fighting that has underscored the high cost of the battle. Russian mercenaries and released convicts from the Wagner group pushed into the neighboring salt-mining town of Soledar and inched closer to Bakhmut, the capture of which has eluded them for months despite an advantage in firepower and the willingness to sacrifice troops.

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The piece quotes several Ukrainian soldiers which speak of huge losses on their side. But the U.S. is still egging them on:

The senior U.S. official cautioned against completely dismissing Bakhmut or neighboring Soledar as nonstrategic places that Kyiv can simply relinquish, noting that the salt and gypsum mines give the area economic significance. Theoretically, the Russians could use the deep salt mines and tunnels to protect equipment and ammunition from Ukrainian missile strikes. Moscow has also endowed the city with import.
“To some degree, Bakhmut matters to [Ukraine] because it matters so much to the Russians,” the senior U.S. official said, noting that control of Bakhmut is not going to have a huge impact on the conflict or imperil Ukraine’s defensive or offensive options in the country’s eastern Donbas region.
The official added, “Bakhmut is not going to change the war.”

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I believe the senior U.S. official to be very wrong. Soledar and Bakhmut are bleeding the Ukrainian army dry. That is of relevance. Look at the insane number of Ukrainian units deployed on that only 50 kilometer (30mi) long sector of the front.


Source: Military Land Deployment Map - bigger
I count the equivalent of some 27 brigade size formations in that area. The usual size of a brigade is some 3,000 to 4,000 men with hundreds of all kinds of vehicles. If all brigades had their full strength that force would count as 97,500 men. In a recent interview the Ukrainian military commander Zaluzhny said that his army has 200,000 men trained to fight with 500,000 more having other functions or currently being trained. The forces which are currently getting mauled in the Bakhmut area constitute 50% of Ukraine's battle ready forces.


Zaluzhny has pulled units from other fronts like the Kreminna and Svatove sector further north in Luhansk province to feed them into Bakhmut. That has minimized any chance that the Ukrainian forces in those sectors will be able to make any progress.


What nearly all reports from Ukraine seem to miss is the huge damage that Russia artillery is causing on a daily base. Ukraine has little artillery left to respond to that and whatever it still has is getting less by the day.


A few weeks ago the Russian military started a systematic counter artillery campaign which has since made great progress. The typical western way of detecting enemy artillery units is by radar. The flight path of the projectile is measured and the coordinates of its source are calculated enabling ones own artillery to respond. But counter-artillery radar itself depends on radiating. It is thereby easily detectable and vulnerable to fire. Over the last months Russia deployed a very different counter-artillery detection systems with the rather ironic name of Penicillin:

Penicillin or 1B75 Penicillin is an acoustic-thermal artillery-reconnaissance system developed by Ruselectronics for the Russian Armed Forces. The system aims to detect and locate enemy artillery, mortars, MLRs, anti-aircraft or tactical-missile firing positions with seismic and acoustic sensors, without emitting any radio waves. It locates enemy fire within 5 seconds at a range of 25 km (16 mi; 13 nmi). Penicillin completed state trials in December 2018 and entered combat duty in 2020.
The Penicillin is mounted on the 8x8 Kamaz-6350 chassis and consists of a 1B75 sensor suite placed on a telescopic boom for the infrared and visible spectrum as well as of several ground-installed seismic and acoustic receivers as a part of the 1B76 sensor suite. It has an effective range for communication with other military assets up to 40 kilometres (25 mi) and is capable to operate even in a fully automatic mode, without any crew. One system can reportedly cover an entire division against an enemy fire. Besides that, it co-ordinates and corrects a friendly artillery fire.

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bigger
The Penicillin system can hide in the woods and stick up its telescopic boom to look at and listen to the battlefield. As it does not radiate itself there is no good way for an enemy to detect it.


The system pinpoints Ukrainian guns as they fire. They are then eliminated by immediate precise counter-fire. As the artillery relevant part of today's 'clobber' list provided by the Russian Ministry of Defense claims:

Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have neutralised an artillery ordnance depot of 114th Territorial Defence Brigade near Veliky Burluk (Kharkov region), as well as 82 artillery units at their firing positions, manpower and hardware at 98 areas.
Counterbattery warfare operations have resulted in destruction of:

• one Polish-manufactured Krab howitzer near Peschanoye (Kharkov region);
• one U.S.-manufactured M109 Paladin howitzer, and one fighting vehicle equipped with Grad multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS) near Lozovaya (Kharkov region);
• one D-20 howitzer near Terny (Donetsk People's Republic);
• two Giatsint-B howitzers near Maryinka and Orlovka (Donetsk People's Republic);
• two Akatsiya self-propelled howitzers near Nevskoye (Lugansk People's Republic), and Preobrazhenka (Zaporozhye region);
• five D-30 howitzers near Zmiyevka, Novokairy (Kherson region), Sofiyevka (Donetsk People's Republic), and Orekhov (Zaporozhye region).

Four U.S.-manufactured counterbattery warfare radars have been destroyed:

• two AN/TPQ-50 stations near Mylovoye and Dudchany (Kherson region),
• one AN/TPQ-36 counterbattery warfare radar near Ugledar (Donetsk People's Republic),
• one U.S.-manufactured AN/TPQ-48 counterbattery warfare radar near Senkovo (Kharkov region).

Air defence facilities have shot down six Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles near Kremennaya (Lugansk People's Republic), Nikolskoye, and Petrovskoye (Donetsk People's Republic).
14 rocket-propelled projectiles launched by HIMARS and Olkha MLRS have been intercepted near Udy (Kharkov region), Smolyaninovo (Lugansk People's Republic), Donetsk, and Khartsyzsk (Donetsk People's Republic).
One U.S.-manufactured anti-radiation missile has been shot down near Radensk (Kherson region).
One Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missile has been shot down near Berdyansk (Zaporozhye region).

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The above is the equivalent of two artillery companies (batteries with six guns each) eliminated in just one day. Ukrainian counter-battery fire against Russian artillery is no longer possible as the necessary detection equipment gets eliminated and as Ukrainian counter-fire is shot down by Russian air defenses.


This Russian counter-artillery campaign has been going on for several weeks. It has disabled large parts of what was left of Ukrainian longer range capabilities. Meanwhile the Russian artillery keeps on knocking down Ukranian troops that hold the frontline. Only when all parts of the Ukrainian trenches have been hit by intense fire will the Russian infantry move in to clean up whatever is left behind.


This form of battle is causing huge losses on the Ukrainian side while the Russian forces incur just a minimum of casualties.


In his recent talks Col (ret.) Douglas Macgregor put the deaths in Ukraine forces at 150,000 and casualties at 450,000. I, like Yves Smith, doubt that number of wounded is that high. As the system of Ukrainian battlefield extradition and hospitalization is in a bad state there will be less wounded and likely more dead.


In a huge contrast to U.S. waged wars, the civilian death count on the Ukrainian side is remarkably low:

Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential staff, said at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos, “We have registered 80,000 crimes committed by Russian invaders and over 9,000 civilians have been killed, including 453 children.”

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Feeding more troops into the battle in the Bakhmut sector, as the Ukrainian side has been doing, is not a good use of resources.


We can state that Ukraine has by now lost the nominal equipment of two larger armies.


At the beginning of the war the Ukrainian army was said to have some 2,500 tanks, 12,500 armored vehicles and 3,500 large artillery systems. It is doubtful that more than half of those were in a usable state but they may have received enough repair to be workable.


The Russia military claims that most of those have been eliminated:

7,549 tanks and other armoured fighting vehicles, 984 fighting vehicles equipped with MLRS, 3,853 field artillery cannons and mortars, as well as 8,081 units of special military equipment have been destroyed during the special military operation.

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If one doubts those numbers one has to ask why the Ukraine has needed to import so many more weapons and is still short of them:

• 410 Soviet-era tanks delivered by NATO members in former communist bloc, including Poland, Czech Republic and Slovenia.
• 300 [Armored/Infantry Fighting Vehicles], including 250 Soviet-designed IFVs from former communist states.
• 1,100 [Armored Personnel Carriers], including 300 M113 troop carriers and 250 M117s.
• 300 towed howitzers. 400+ pieces of self-propelled artillery, of which 180 is on order.
• 95 [Multiple Rocket Launchers]

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There were also a number of fighter airplanes, helicopter and air-defense systems. The above was the second army, after Ukraine's original one was mostly gone, that has by now been nearly eliminated.


The Russian clobber list now regularly reports of combat with Ukraine forces that kills, for example, one tank, three armored vehicles and a number of pick-ups and motor vehicles:

One Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group has been eliminated near Liman Pervy (Kharkov region). The enemy has lost over 50 Ukrainian personnel, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, and two pickups.
...
[In Donetsk direction] over 60 Ukrainian personnel, one tank, three armoured fighting vehicles, and six motor vehicles have been eliminated.
...
Two AFU sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been eliminated in the area to the north of Levadnoye and Vladimirovka (Donetsk People's Republic). The enemy has lost up to 40 Ukrainian personnel, two armoured fighting vehicles, and three motor vehicles.

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Pick-ups and unarmored motor vehicles should avoid the frontline and certainly not be part of force attacking the immediate frontline. If these reports reflect the current structure of Ukrainian forces, as I believe they do, than its state is indeed dire.


In his Economist interview General Zeluzhny has requested a third army to be delivered to him immediately:

“I know that I can beat this enemy,” he says. “But I need resources. I need 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs [infantry fighting vehicles], 500 Howitzers.”

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As the Economist writer dryly noted:

The incremental arsenal he is seeking is bigger than the total armoured forces of most European armies.

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The stocks of two complete armies have by now been destroyed in Ukraine. The resources for a smaller third one will be delivered in the next rounds of 'western' equipment deliveries during the next months. Russia will dully destroy Ukraine's third army just as it has destroyed the first and second one. It is doubtful that the 'West' has enough material left to provide Ukraine with a fourth one.


That then leaves only two options. Send in 'western' armies with the equipment they still have or declare victory and go home.


The neo-conservatives as ever favor the first option. President Joe Biden may still be against sending U.S. soldiers but this could change if he indeed gets blackmailed into doing it:

[A]s the ‘classified documents’ scandal gains momentum, the malleable president will likely fall-in-line and do whatever the hawkish foreign policy establishment demands of him. In short, the documents flap is being used by behind-the-scenes powerbrokers who are blackmailing the president to pursue their own narrow interests. They have Brandon over-a-barrel.

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There is no evidence that this is happening but the signs are there.


The second option is to declare a non-existent victory and to forget about the whole issues.


But will the 'western' media, as Yves asks, notice any of this?


As commentator David correctly remarks at Yves' site:

I’ve said for a long time now that the West will be able to claim “victory”, or at least not defeat, by establishing fantastical victory conditions that the Russians never had and never wanted, and then claiming credit for frustrating them. With luck, this will just about enable western elites to hang onto power, at least temporarily.

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"Putin tried to conquer Europe but we stopped him after he took only half of Ukraine," will sound like victory. But it is of course extremely far from the truth. Anyway, the media may well buy it:

But in the wider sense, we’re seeing the latest and most degenerate stage of the stupidity and ignorance which has afflicted the western media and pundit class over the last year. They didn’t know about the war in the Donbas, nobody told them Russia had the strongest army in Europe, nobody knew about the defensive lines in Donbas, nobody understood the seriousness of the Russian threats, nobody realised the Russians hoped for a short, sharp war to bring the Ukrainians to their senses, nobody understood why Russia went over to Plan B while it mobilised, nobody realised the Russians had been stockpiling weapons and ammunition for years; nobody knew what attrition warfare was …. In other words, the most disgraceful example of ignorance and stupidity of any ruling class in modern times. It will go on to the end, and “victory” will be proclaimed.

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The war the U.S. provoked in Ukraine has been won by Russia even when no one wants to note it.


Posted by b on January 17, 2023 at 18:14 UTC | Permalink

Cedar Lake said:

From UK Defense Secretary Wallace's statement, the entire batch of new UK aid to Ukraine will include the following:

~14 Challenger 2 tanks together with armored recovery and repair vehicles, which is the equivalent to one British Army armored squadron (drawn from non-upgraded ~79 MBTs).

A battery of eight AS-90s self-propelled howitzers, with plans already to send two additional batteries worth of these mobile guns in the near future.
Ukraine is expected to receive 30 in total from a total of ~117.

Hundreds (?) of other armored vehicles, including an unspecified number of FV432 Mk 3 Bulldogs (~100 in other sources).
Designed in the late '50's, in service from '63, last manufactured in '71.
An analogue of the US M113 APC.
430+ were refurbished/upgraded in 2006 instead of being scrapped/mothballed, to the 'Bulldog' standard (improved armor, new motor, etc).
Minor batches were experimented with mortars, ATGMs, Recoiless Rifles, 81mm mortars, salvaged 30mm auto-cannons.

Designed as a troop transport, a battle taxi.

A maneuver support package "that includes minefield breaching and bridging capabilities."

Dozens of un-crewed aerial systems, specifically "to support Ukrainian artillery."

100,000 unspecified caliber artillery rounds.

Hundreds of "sophisticated missiles," which will include 227mm Guided Multiple Launch System (GMLRS) rockets that can be fired from M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and variants and derivatives of the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS),

Starstreak surface-to-air missiles, and examples of an unknown type of "medium range air defense missile." (Quantity unknown?)

A support package with spares for tanks and infantry fighting vehicles already in Ukrainian service.

The UK Army is quite small, essentially UK is committing a significant portion of its first line materiel, and a substantial amount of its second line reserve war stocks.
The quantities of shells & missiles is quite small given AFU's needs/shortages.
What models are the other UK AFVs 'in the hundreds' ?
Yet more logistical burden for AFU.

When will any of this, apparently coming in staged piecemeal batches/echelons, actually turn up in AFU at the FEBA, and in what size committed quantities? A soon to be confirmed delivery date.

The U.K.'s official action along with Western Media trumpeting of 'The Leopards are coming!" to the Ukraine is to influence/pressure the 20 January Ramstein meeting regarding Germany approving transfer of other NATO nations Leopards regarding arms agreement/transfer approvals.

More information will be forth-coming from the NATO Military Chiefs of Defence Meeting scheduled 18-19 January 2023 followed by the Ramstein meeting 20 January 2023.

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The UK seems to be emptying their warehouses. And I wonder if any of our pre positioned stocks at Diego Garcia have been dug into as well.

Whoever is the advising military strategist on the US/NATO side is not at all adept in military operations, unless the plan is to kill many Ukrainians while attempting to bleed Russia, and then get the US into a nuclear war. The US military high brass are more politicians than soldiers.

LightEcho said:

Whoever is the advising military strategist on the US/NATO side is not at all adept in military operations, unless the plan is to kill many Ukrainians while attempting to bleed Russia, and then get the US into a nuclear war. The US military high brass are more politicians than soldiers.

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At this point they could end up causing russia to overtake the rest of europe

wait-n-see said:

Ukraine Bakhmut Crisis Deepens, Zelensky Fires Key Adviser, Bloomberg Confirms Russian Oil Surge​

Runtime - 1:10:21 (run at least 1.5 speed for easier listening)

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I always play back at 1.25x will have to try 1.5x - good info - but you can fall asleep he talks so slow!

Some good additional info / background on Arestovich - he was the Ukrainian's top Government PR/SPIN Master - out now! - ZERO info on this in the Western Media? Effectively he tosses Zelensky under the bus - 180 degree change for him.
This is a good follow up to Tom McDowell posting of in interview with Arestovich (post #44,598)
Move to about 29 min into this video for the Arestovich comments.

Without question a major shakeup!

More on Arestovich - from War News
Zelensky is a complete idiot - He destroyed the country with his laws & declared war on Christianity!

Abert said:

More on Arestovich - from War News
Zelensky is a complete idiot - He destroyed the country with his laws & declared war on Christianity!

Μακελειό στην Ουκρανική προεδρία - Αρεστόβιτς: Ο Ζελένσκι είναι τελείως ηλίθιος - Κατέστρεψε τη χώρα με τους νόμους του & κήρυξε τον πόλεμο στον Χριστιανισμό! - WarNews247

Ο σύμβουλος της ουκρανικής προεδρίας Ολέξι Αρεστόβιτς εξαπέλυσε σφοδρή επίθεση στον Β.Ζελένσκι χαρακτηρίζοντας τον ηλίθιο και κατηγορώντ

warnews247-gr.translate.goog

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Good.

The ultimate benefit to Russia is that they only need to capture a few of each advanced weapon system to study it's engineering, operation, ammunition and then borrow the parts they find beneficial. We will face their improved weapons at a future date.

When the proximity fuse for anti-aircraft ammunition was developed it was distributed somewhat randomly and mixed in with conventional ammo. No unit got to use it exclusively. They were afraid the Germans would notice a trend in increased effectiveness and develop a counter for it.

Shadow

Interesting, and potentially very troubling for the west, if the Russians have even more EW capability up their sleeves.

@@@

NATO warning and reconnaissance systems were completely disabled in today's Russian strikes

14th January 2023
by Valentin Vasilescu

A naval attack group, which includes frigates, 3 submarines and the landing ship Pyotr Morgunov, left on January 11 from the Novorossiysk base. Washavianca-class submarines have been used to launch Kalibr cruise missile attacks on Ukraine. Subsequently, there was intense GPS jamming in the western Black Sea. NATO has decided to deploy 3 E-3 AWACS aircraft to Otopeni Air Base in Romania. This decision shows that something has started to go wrong in the Ukrainian AA defense early warning system based on information provided by NATO.

Russia carried out several strikes this morning on kyiv, the city of Zaporozhye and the Ochakovo naval base in the Mykolaiv region. Air alerts weren't working. Deputy Commander of Ground Forces of Ukraine Lt. Gen. Alexander Pavlyuk noted that "the causes of the explosions will be announced separately." Which shows a lot of confusion, basically Ukrainians don't know what hit them. It was only 6 hours after the attack that they learned that Russian missiles had entered Ukraine via Belarus.

It is possible that Russia has created certain zones of invisibility for aerial and satellite detection systems. The Russians have several highly effective jamming systems, including the R 330ZH Zhitel and the Krasuha-4.

The R 330ZH Zhitel follows the dialogue (transmission and reception) between the NAVSTAR navigation satellite networks (GPS) and the airborne reconnaissance means (RC-135V, RQ-4B, E-3 AWACS). Simultaneously with tracking, the jamming of the R 330ZH Jitel interrupts the reception and transmission (delivery of information) from aerial reconnaissance platforms. The main mission of the Krasuha-4 is to jam the radars of manned reconnaissance aircraft (RC-135V, P-8A Poseidon and E-8C JSTARS), E-3 AWACS early warning aircraft and unmanned reconnaissance aircraft (US RQ-4B Global Hawk drones). The Krasuha-4 also jams US military reconnaissance radar satellites Lacrosse and Onyx.

The inability of NATO reconnaissance aircraft to warn Ukraine of an impending Russian airstrike will force the Ukrainians to keep their AA missile battery radars operational. That the Russians can neutralize from the air with anti-radar missiles.

LightEcho said:

Whoever is the advising military strategist on the US/NATO side is not at all adept in military operations, unless the plan is to kill many Ukrainians while attempting to bleed Russia, and then get the US into a nuclear war. The US military high brass are more politicians than soldiers.

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Any rank ABOVE O-5/Lieutenant Colonel/Navy Commander is a political-selection promotion (Congress) - that includes all full-bird Colonels/Navy Captains, 1+ star and up Generals/Admirals.

Been true for decades+.


intothegoodnight

Knoxville's Joker said:

At this point they could end up causing russia to overtake the rest of europe

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Doubtful, in the traditional military sense of conquering and subsuming.

However, I would not be surprised to hear that Russian military elements were "found" to be "house cleaning" in some parts of Europe, outside of the Ukraine.


intothegoodnight

LightEcho said:

Dude, that is complete rubbish. Seriously. I was an officer in US army in the cavalry... tanks, scouts & mortars. I can look at the news about the battlefield, apply modern technology, consider logistics, see through the psy-ops played by each side, and do simple math. If those vehicles and weapons systems are a threat (and they are in an irritating way) Russia will launch a blocking action along the Polish border while pushing a beach-head through and around Odessa. The main action by Russia will likely be finished by the end of March.

Ukraine is woefully getting their asses handed to them every day. They are losing 2 battalions per week. Can you count? Try it. Add up the numbers if you can find them and see what you come up with.

I was trained on some of the systems on that battlefield. The soldiers there are not going to be skilled at shooting those tanks or the missile systems in a few weeks of training. Gunnery, vehicle maneuvering, communications systems, cleaning, etc. And repairs/maintenance? No way. Even battlefield expedient actions take time to learn. How much would you expect a few high school graduates with no prior experience, to be able to rebuild the engine, transmission or just replace a head gasket in your car after 2 weeks of training? And throw in brakes, suspension system, tire changes, electrical and sensor systems. Now multiply that by 10. Make an error and your weapons system can be a total failure in combat.

Click to expand...

"They are losing 2 battalions per week. Can you count? Try it. Add up the numbers if you can find them and see what you come up with."

where do you get these numbers from, from notGen'l McGregor?

and if they are accurate, which i doubt, then the russians must be suffering at least twice that number, since they are the attacking force. no?

and as for blocking the supplies from Poland, exactly how are they going to do that? they could barely take an abandoned salt mine in five months.

i mean, wouldn't that require moving tens of thousands of guys right to the border, around and through Lviv? how exactly are they going to do that? not even remotely possible today.

and as for going for Odessa. not gonna happen either. they would have to execute a successful landing on the beaches there and/or break through across the wide river at Dnipro at Kherson. impossible now. they don't have the manpower, equipment or zeal.

and by march? i am laughing.

You may still be laughing, but if it were my country, I would certainly not be laughing. Once Russia starts the break-out, their armored forces will lead in big bite maneuvers enough to disrupt the defenses but slow enough for artillery and logistics to get in range. This is still the attrition stage with a transition beginning. You cannot presume the future from past experience.

As for casualties... it seems you have no idea what is happening there. It ain't good. Keep us up to date on your emotional status and when you stop laughing. I would guess by your attitude that most of Ukraine is being treated like mushrooms.

LightEcho said:

You may still be laughing, but if it were my country, I would certainly not be laughing. Once Russia starts the break-out, their armored forces will lead in big bite maneuvers enough to disrupt the defenses but slow enough for artillery and logistics to get in range. This is still the attrition stage with a transition beginning. You cannot presume the future from past experience.

As for casualties... it seems you have no idea what is happening there. It ain't good. Keep us up to date on your emotional status and when you stop laughing. I would guess by your attitude that most of Ukraine is being treated like mushrooms.

Click to expand...

we will see who is right in a few months.

but on the street morale is high. churches are packed. lots of young men still circulating in town. but, fewer solders in the last month or so. some, but not as many as in fall.

Oreally said:

we will see who is right in a few months.

but on the street morale is high. churches are packed. lots of young men still circulating in town. but, fewer solders in the last month or so. some, but not as many as in fall.

Click to expand...

Yes we will see soon... I wish you the best. This world is about to be shaken and you seem to be near ground zero. But that is just the start. I think places near me will be wiped flat. But that comes later.

LightEcho said:

Yes we will see soon... I wish you the best. This world is about to be shaken and you seem to be near ground zero. But that is just the start. I think places near me will be wiped flat. But that comes later.

Click to expand...

yeah, that is why i figure there is no point in going home. gonna be a mess everywhere is this does not stop soon

Pentagon Sends U.S. Arms Stored in Israel to Ukraine​

Israeli officials had initially expressed concerns that the move could damage its relations with Russia.


Arming the Ukrainian military with sufficient artillery ammunition is part of a larger American-led effort to increase its overall combat power.


Jan. 17, 2023

WASHINGTON — The Pentagon is tapping into a vast but little-known stockpile of American ammunition in Israel to help meet Ukraine’s dire need for artillery shells in the war with Russia, American and Israeli officials say.

The stockpile provides arms and ammunition for the Pentagon to use in Middle East conflicts. The United States has also allowed Israel to access the supplies in emergencies.
The Ukraine conflict has become an artillery-driven war of attrition, with each side lobbing thousands of shells every day. Ukraine has run low on munitions for its Soviet-era weaponry and has largely shifted to firing artillery and rounds donated by the United States and other Western allies.

Artillery constitutes the backbone of ground combat firepower for both Ukraine and Russia, and the war’s outcome may hinge on which side runs out of ammunition first, military analysts say. With stockpiles in the United States strained and American arms makers not yet able to keep up with the pace of Ukraine’s battlefield operations, the Pentagon has turned to two alternative supplies of shells to bridge the gap: one in South Korea and the one in Israel, whose use in the Ukraine war has not been previously reported.

The shipment of hundreds of thousands of artillery shells from the two stockpiles to help sustain Ukraine’s war effort is a story about the limits of America’s industrial base and the diplomatic sensitivities of two vital U.S. allies that have publicly committed not to send lethal military aid to Ukraine.


Israel has consistently refused to supply weapons to Ukraine out of fear of damaging relations with Moscow and initially expressed concerns about appearing complicit in arming Ukraine if the Pentagon drew its munitions from the stockpile. About half of the 300,000 rounds destined for Ukraine have already been shipped to Europe and will eventually be delivered through Poland, Israeli and American officials said.

As senior defense and military officials from dozens of nations, including NATO states, prepare to meet at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Friday to discuss sending Ukraine more tanks and other arms, U.S. officials have been scrambling behind the scenes to cobble together enough shells to keep Kyiv sufficiently supplied this year, including through an anticipated spring offensive.

“With the front line now mostly stationary, artillery has become the most important combat arm,” Mark F. Cancian, a former White House weapons strategist, said in a new study for the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, where he is a senior adviser.

Another analysis published last month by the Foreign Policy Research Institute said that if Ukraine continued to receive a steady supply of ammunition, particularly for artillery, as well as spare parts, it would stand a good chance of wresting back more territory that Russia had seized.

“The question is whether these advantages will prove sufficient for Ukrainian forces to retake territory from entrenched Russian troops,” wrote Rob Lee and Michael Kofman, leading military analysts.

​

Arming the Ukrainian military with enough artillery ammunition is part of a larger American-led effort to increase its overall combat power by also providing more precision long-range weapons, Western tanks and armored fighting vehicles, and combined arms training.
The United States has so far sent or pledged to send Ukraine just over one million 155-millimeter shells. A sizable portion of that — though less than half — has come from the stockpiles in Israel and South Korea, a senior U.S. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.

The Ukraine conflict has been fundamentally an artillery-driven war of attrition, with each side lobbing thousands of shells every day.

Other Western countries, including Germany, Canada, Estonia and Italy, have sent 155-millimeter shells to Ukraine.
The Ukrainian army uses about 90,000 artillery rounds a month, about twice the rate they are being manufactured by the United States and European countries combined, U.S. and Western officials say. The rest must come from other sources, including existing stockpiles or commercial sales.

Mr. Kofman said in an interview that without adjustments to how the Ukrainian military fights, future Ukrainian offensives might require significantly more artillery ammunition to make progress against entrenched Russian defenses.

“The U.S. is making up the difference from its stockpiles, but that’s doubtfully a sustainable solution,” said Mr. Kofman, who is the director of Russian studies at CNA, a research institute in Arlington, Va. “It means the U.S. is taking on risk elsewhere.”

Pentagon officials say they must ensure that even as they arm Ukraine, American stockpiles do not dip to dangerously low levels. According to two senior Israeli officials, the United States has promised Israel that it will replenish what it takes from the warehouses in its territory and would immediately ship ammunition in a severe emergency.

“We are confident that we will continue to be able to support Ukraine for as long as it takes,” Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, the Pentagon spokesman, told reporters last week. “And we’re confident that we’ll be able to continue to maintain the readiness levels that are vital to defending our nation.”
General Ryder told The New York Times in a statement on Tuesday that the Pentagon “will not discuss the location or units providing the equipment or materiel,” citing operational security reasons.

---

And those war reserve stockpiles are playing a pivotal role.
When last year the Pentagon first raised the idea of withdrawing munitions from the stockpile, Israeli officials expressed concern about Moscow’s reaction.

Israel has imposed a near-total embargo on selling weapons to Ukraine, fearing that Russia might retaliate by using its forces in Syria to limit Israeli airstrikes aimed at Iranian and Hezbollah forces there.

Israel’s relationship with Russia has come under close scrutiny since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February, and Ukrainian officials have called out Israel’s government for offering their country only limited support and bowing to Russian pressure.
As the war dragged on, the Pentagon and the Israelis reached an agreement to move about 300,000 155-millimeter shells, Israeli and American officials said.

The American desire to move the munitions was officially submitted in an encrypted phone conversation between the U.S. secretary of defense, Lloyd J. Austin III, and Benny Gantz, the Israeli minister of defense at the time, according to an Israeli official who was briefed on the details of the conversation.

Mr. Gantz brought the issue to the Israeli cabinet. The officials asked to hear the opinion of the defense establishment, whose representatives recommended accepting the plan to avoid tension with the United States, in part because the ammunition was American property. Yair Lapid, then the prime minister, approved the request at the end of the discussion.

The Israeli officials said that Israel had not changed its policy of not providing Ukraine with lethal weapons and rather was acceding to an American decision to use its own ammunition as it saw fit.

“Based on a U.S. request, certain equipment was transferred to the U.S. D.O.D. from its stockpiles” in Israel, a spokesman for the Israeli Defense Forces said in a statement, referring to the Department of Defense.

The stockpile of American military hardware and munitions in Israel has its origins in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, which saw the United States airlifting weapons to resupply Israeli forces.
After the war, the United States established warehouses in Israel so that it could rely on them if it were again caught in a crisis. A strategic memorandum signed by the two countries in the 1980s paved the way for the “pre-positioning” of Pentagon assets in Israel, according to two former U.S. officials and a former senior Israeli military officer with direct knowledge of the agreement.

American tanks and armored personnel carriers were initially moved to Israel’s southern desert with the understanding that they would be used by U.S. forces in the region if needed, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive internal deliberations.

In the 2000s, the program was expanded to include munitions for the U.S. Army, Navy and Air Force — all stored in separate locations accessible only to American military personnel, according to a former U.S. arms inspector.

At the time, the stockpile, officially called the WRSA-I, or War Reserve Stocks for Allies-Israel, was overseen by the U.S. European Command. But it is now managed by the U.S. Central Command, following a redrawing of its area of responsibility in September 2021.

Israel was allowed to withdraw American munitions from the stockpile during its war with Hezbollah in the summer of 2006 and again during operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip in 2014, according to a Congressional Research Service report released in February 2022.

The Pentagon also approached South Korea last year about transferring munitions in the U.S. stockpile there to Ukraine.


The South Korean government did not want certain artillery rounds showing up in Ukraine in violation of South Korean arms export rules.

The South Koreans were more willing than the Israelis to work with the United States on using the stocks, a senior U.S. official said. But they also objected to shipping artillery shells directly to Ukraine, though for different reasons, the official said. The South Korean government did not want artillery rounds marked R.O.K. (Republic of Korea) showing up in Ukraine in violation of South Korean arms export rules.

A compromise was reached. Artillery shells from the Korean stockpile would be sent to replenish American stocks elsewhere.

The United States has also agreed to buy 100,000 new artillery shells from South Korea, a deal previously reported by The Wall Street Journal.

U.S. officials say that accessing the overseas stocks will help tide over the Ukrainians until American ammunition makers can ramp up their production.

Other factors may ease the pressure for more shells. Russia’s artillery fire has reduced sharply in recent weeks, Pentagon officials said, possibly reflecting rationing of rounds because of low supplies. White House officials said in November that North Korea was shipping artillery shells to Russia, another sign of likely munitions shortages, U.S. officials said.

Finally, the United States is helping Ukraine use ammunition more efficiently. The Ukrainians have been firing so many artillery barrages that about a third of the 155-millimeter howitzers provided by the United States and other Western nations are out of commission for repairs.

Over the summer, during intense fighting between Ukraine and Russia in the eastern region of Donbas, Pentagon officials gathered satellite imagery that showed the devastation wrought on farmland between the two forces’ trench lines.

Fields had been transformed into moonscapes, pitted and pocked with thousands of crater shells.

Since then, American officials have leaned on Ukrainians to use their artillery more judiciously. And the arrival of precision rocket artillery, like HIMARS rocket artillery, has allowed Ukraine to strike more expertly.


A former Russian barracks was hit by HIMARS precision-guided rockets in Kherson City, Ukraine, in November.

a question for everyone . . .

is the average person on the street back home aware of all this? and how serious it is?

Oreally said:

a question for everyone . . .

is the average person on the street back home aware of all this? and how serious it is?

Click to expand...

In my neck of the woods, there is only a casual knowledge of it. Many people know that Russia invaded Ukraine and the Ukraine is the "good guys", but they know few if any specifics. If I had to put a number on it, I would say 70% know that much and 30% would be like "Ukraine who?" Anyone who took this as seriously as many of us on this thread do would probably be seen as overly dramatic.

WTSR said:

January 17, 2023

Ukraine SitRep - Media Ignorance, Counter-Artillery War, Three Lost Armies​

Click to expand...

The Military Land Deployment Map is extremely useful for checking information.

My computer didn't like the link ^^^^^^^^^^

mzkitty said:

View attachment 391916
My computer didn't like the link ^^^^^^^^^^

View attachment 391917

Click to expand...

Note that these some facts & opinions posted below.
I'm quite sure more news will be up-dated & forthcoming.

Vincent Gouysse
January 18 2023 10 11 h min

Today the DCA ukropithèque shoots down one of its own helicopters in Brovary, near Kyiv: The results are also formidable there: 16 civilians killed, including 2 children, 22 other injured including 10 children.
Among the 9 passengers of the helicopter killed, the Ukrainian Minister of the Interior, Denis Monastyrsky and his deputy Yevgeny Enin.
Provisional assessment reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of the Interior…
The downed helicopter belonged to the Ukrainian Ministry of Emergency Situations.
Source: Erwan Erwan Castel
“Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine named equipment malfunction, violation of security rules and sabotage among the possible causes of the helicopter crash in Brovary” Source: Intel Slava Z



Vincent Gouysse
January 18 2023 11 57 h min

In any case, the hypothesis of a very stupid accident (collision with an obstacle seen at the last moment) seems to be ruled out: "Photo of the wreckage of the Super Puma having crashed on a nursery school this Latin in Brovary near kyiv. It is a French Super Puma, a modern device equipped with a reactive flight radar, which calls into question the official Ukrainian version according to which it would have hit the roof of the building.
Clarification concerning the previous post: the civilian victims were not on board but "there" on the crash site. " Source : Erwan Castel



Hmmmm......The claim being made at this time is today the DCA shot down one of its own helicopters in Brovary, near Kyiv: The results are devasting there: 16 civilians killed, including 2 children, 22 other injured including 10 children, and among the 9 passengers of the helicopter killed, the Ukrainian Minister of the Interior, Denis Monastyrsky and his deputy Yevgeny Enin. Provisional assessment reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of the Interior…

The downed helicopter belonged to the Ukrainian Ministry of Emergency Situations. It is a French Super Puma, a modern device equipped with a reactive flight radar, which calls into question the official Ukrainian version according to which it would have hit the roof of the building.
Clarification concerning the previous post: the civilian victims were not on board the helicopter but "there" on the crash site.

What is known right now is that the helicopter ended up on the roof of the kindergarden school and that 16 civilians were killed, including 2 children who were on the ''ground''.
The 22 other injured civilians are 12 adults and 10 children who were on the ''ground''.
Among the 9 passengers of the helicopter killed, the Ukrainian Minister of the Interior, Denis Monastyrsky and his deputy Yevgeny Enin.
There are conflicting claims about the possible causes of the helicopter crash ranging from equipment malfunction, violation of security rules, sabotage and being shot down.

EndGameWW3

@EndGameWW3
·
6h

Russian Foreign Minister: What is happening in Ukraine is the result of the American preparation for a hybrid war against Russia. Russian Foreign Minister: NATO is fighting Russia through Ukraine.

Disclose.tv

@disclosetv
·
19h

Kissinger: "Ukraine's membership in NATO would be appropriate."

NATO warns of Russia’s long war in Ukraine, vows to be ready​

NATO warns of Russia's long war in Ukraine, vows to be ready

BRUSSELS (AP) — Russia is preparing for an extended war so NATO must get ready “for the long haul” and support Ukraine for as long as it takes, the alliance’s deputy secretary general told top military chiefs from across Europe Wednesday.

Speaking at the opening of the military chiefs’ meeting here, Mircea Geoana said NATO nations must invest more in defense, ramp up military industrial manufacturing and harness new technologies to prepare for future wars.
As Russia’s war on Ukraine nears the one year mark, NATO chiefs are expected to discuss how allies can expand the delivery of weapons, training and support to Ukraine in the coming months, and how they can further shore up their own defenses.

“We have no indication that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s goals have changed,” said Geoana, adding that Russia has mobilized more than 200,000 additional troops. “So we must be prepared for the long haul. 2023 will be a difficult year and we need to support Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

U.S. Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, met quietly on Tuesday with Ukraine’s chief military officer, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, at an undisclosed location in southeastern Poland, near the Ukrainian border. And he is expected to relay Zaluzhnyi’s concerns to the other military leaders at the meeting

Milley’s meeting with Zaluzhnyi was quickly arranged when it became clear Monday that the Ukraine chief would not be able to attend the NATO sessions in person. He’s expected to attend by video conference on Thursday.
Army Col. Dave Butler, Milley’s spokesman, said the chairman planned to describe to the NATO chiefs “the tactical and operational conditions on the battlefield and what the military needs are for that.”
Adm. Rob Bauer, the chair of the NATO Military Committee, told the gathering of chiefs on Wednesday that the alliance must continue to transform to meet future fights.
“The war has also shown us that you have to be able to fight tomorrow’s battles, as well as yesterday’s battles, today,” said Bauer, who is with the Royal Netherlands Navy. “Modern warfare is just as much about bits and bots as it is about mud and blood.”
He noted that about a year ago, the NATO Russia Council held its last meeting.


“Back then we were still able to sit around the same table,” he said, adding that now, after Russia’s brutal invasion and war in Ukraine, “the world is a different place.”
NATO, he said, has proven it can quickly increase and shift its military presence when and where needed. And he echoed the commitment that the alliance is prepared to support Ukraine for as long as needed.
Putin, he said, “underestimated the scale and bravery of Ukrainian people, armed forces and leadership, and underestimated our unity and our solidarity with Ukraine.” That alliance support, he said, has made a difference on the battlefield, and it will continue.

Helicopter crash, reportedly view of damaged kindergarten:

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1615713985336344576

WTSR said:

This is a huge blow to the Ukrainian Leadership, assuming its true. I heard another rumor he might have to to flee to Russia so he isn't Drafted and sent to the front.

Click to expand...

Just imagine if others in the admin are thinking it.

danielboon said:

EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
·
6h

Russian Foreign Minister: What is happening in Ukraine is the result of the American preparation for a hybrid war against Russia. Russian Foreign Minister: NATO is fighting Russia through Ukraine.

Click to expand...

I thought this fit:

Top US General Inspects Expanded Training Program Of Ukrainian Troops​

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley visited a military base in Germany where expanded US training of Ukrainian personnel is taking place.

Milley's visit came Monday, which was only day two of the new training, and he was there to inspect the program - but also no doubt to send a strong message to Moscow of the Pentagon's resolve. Some 600 Ukrainian troops are being trained by American advisers on various weapons, armored vehicles, tanks, and combat techniques in what's expected to be a five week rotation at the large Grafenwoehr training area.

"This is not a run of the mill rotation," Milley told commanders in a briefing during the visit. "This is one of those moments in time where if you want to make a difference, this is it."

But the Associated Press still confirmed severe reporting restrictions meant to safeguard the identities of the personnel present: "The reporters were allowed to follow Milley and watch his interactions with Ukrainian and U.S. troops and commanders, but were not allowed to report specific conversations with the Ukraine forces or take any photos or video."
The report noted that "The restrictions reflect ongoing U.S. concerns about escalating Russian anger over the West’s involvement in the war or triggering a wider conflict."

Even prior to Russia's Feb.24 invasion of Ukraine, limited numbers of Ukrainian troops had undergone military instruction from US and allied trainers at Grafenwoehr. There are also reports of a long-running covert CIA program going back years before the current conflict.

The program is being overseen by the 7th Army Training Command, of which AP details further:

It will include classroom instruction and field work that will begin with small squads and gradually grow to involve larger units. It will culminate with a more complex combat exercise bringing an entire battalion and a headquarters unit together.

Click to expand...

Moscow has held up activities like the Pentagon training Ukrainian troops as evidence that US involvement is growing more direct, and going even beyond a proxy war. Beginning early last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that NATO is now a "direct" participant.

"You shouldn’t say that the US and NATO aren’t taking part in this war. You are directly participating in it," Lavrov told a press briefing at the time.

"And not just by providing weapons but also by training personnel. You are training their military on your territory, on the territories of Britain, Germany, Italy, and other countries," he pointed out.


My comments:

I thought the biggest impact Milley wanted to do was understand white anger?

Or develop a camo lipstick and matching fingernail polish.

With that as background, can anyone, anywhere in the world, especially Ukraine, trust this man to do what is best militarily?

2nd thought: 600 men? Ukraine lost that in one day, in one battle (Soledar), and this is going to make Ukraine a stronger Army? More like, more grinder meat. Ukraine needs to wake up, the US isn't doing them any favors.

BTW bringing a "HQ Unit together" means there will be more cooks, truck drivers, and clerks than 11B.

Pentagon Forced To Tap Unreported Ammo Stockpile In Israel To Support Ukraine​

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
WEDNESDAY, JAN 18, 2023 - 09:05 AM

The New York Times this week has detailed more of the desperate behind the scenes scramble of US and Western officials to keep up the steady supply of arms and ammo, especially artillery munitions (155mm shells), to Ukraine in order to beat back the Russian invasion. It's yet another significant acknowledgement of the Pentagon's own dwindling stockpiles as it now must tap heretofore not publicly disclosed stores in Israel...

"The Pentagon is tapping into a vast but little-known stockpile of American ammunition in Israel to help meet Ukraine’s dire need for artillery shells in the war with Russia, American and Israeli officials say," the Times reports. "The stockpile provides arms and ammunition for the Pentagon to use in Middle East conflicts. The United States has also allowed Israel to access the supplies in emergencies."



Ukrainian artillery position on outskirts of Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine. AFP

Western backers of Kiev are currently also seeking to prepare Ukraine to defend against an anticipated Russian spring offensive, and Ukrainian forces need hundreds of thousands of rounds.

As for what's being tapped from the Pentagon's ammo stores in Israel, "About half of the 300,000 rounds destined for Ukraine have already been shipped to Europe and will eventually be delivered through Poland, Israeli and American officials said," according to the report.

The stockpile in Israel has previously gone unreported, while another stockpile held oversees is also being tapped, in South Korea. Both countries have themselves thus far maintained an official policy of not arming Ukraine, with Israel in particular coming under pressure by both Washington and Ukrainian officials to send lethal aid.

Israeli reluctance and the fact that it must walk a fine diplomatic line with Russia given the Russian military presence in Syria, makes the Pentagon using its Israeli stores for a conflict in eastern Europe deeply controversial.

The new Tuesday NYT report continues a consistent theme which has been an issue concerning US defense officials since even the opening months of the war - how to arm Ukraine enough to claw back territory without endangering America's own defense preparedness.

The Times underscores this dilemma in the following: "The shipment of hundreds of thousands of artillery shells from the two stockpiles to help sustain Ukraine’s war effort is a story about the limits of America’s industrial base and the diplomatic sensitivities of two vital U.S. allies that have publicly committed not to send lethal military aid to Ukraine."

Last week, at a defense conference in D.C. some among the US Navy's top leadership put the dilemma in stark terms, with a reporter from Defense One capturing a top commander's words: "An admiral alluded to the US needing to choose between itself and Ukraine during a panel at the conference."

Knoxville's Joker said:

At this point they could end up causing russia to overtake the rest of europe

Click to expand...

LOL they just might, but on a serious note: I tend to differ on the future plans of Russia. For Europe, Ukraine is it. Won and done.

However for the west in general, there is another play. IMHO and that is economic. To hurt the west and to hurt it badly for its interference. Not war but economic nukes.

And we have already given the Russians the idea on how to do it. Oil/natural gas.

Cut the west off from it's oil and petrodollar and it will be on it's knees begging for oil. Russia isn't there yet. They either need to own, or be in control of, all the oil coming out of the middle east. Corner the market.

So in my arm chair recliner with sweet tea, and a warm fire, Russia's next move will be south, to gain control of those pipelines. You bombed ours we will possess yours.

BTW SA oil goes to Europe through Iraq.

Russia have you come to take a spoil?

LightEcho said:

Dude, that is complete rubbish. Seriously. I was an officer in US army in the cavalry... tanks, scouts & mortars. I can look at the news about the battlefield, apply modern technology, consider logistics, see through the psy-ops played by each side, and do simple math. If those vehicles and weapons systems are a threat (and they are in an irritating way) Russia will launch a blocking action along the Polish border while pushing a beach-head through and around Odessa. The main action by Russia will likely be finished by the end of March.

Ukraine is woefully getting their asses handed to them every day. They are losing 2 battalions per week. Can you count? Try it. Add up the numbers if you can find them and see what you come up with.

I was trained on some of the systems on that battlefield. The soldiers there are not going to be skilled at shooting those tanks or the missile systems in a few weeks of training. Gunnery, vehicle maneuvering, communications systems, cleaning, etc. And repairs/maintenance? No way. Even battlefield expedient actions take time to learn. How much would you expect a few high school graduates with no prior experience, to be able to rebuild the engine, transmission or just replace a head gasket in your car after 2 weeks of training? And throw in brakes, suspension system, tire changes, electrical and sensor systems. Now multiply that by 10. Make an error and your weapons system can be a total failure in combat.

Click to expand...

I would also call attention to two articles posted in the last couple of days.

One on the last page where Russia stated they were calling up 300,000 men/reservists.


One on this page where Ukraine is having 600 men trained.

The difference in numbers 300,000 vs 600.

Sounds like Thermopylae. O wait........all the Spartans died or surrendered. It did take 3 days though and it makes a great movie.

Russia Reportedly Confiscated All OSCE Donbass Vehicles And Donated Them To Frontline Troops​

RT 00:44

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe is the world's largest regional security-oriented intergovernmental organization with observer status at the United Nations. Its mandate includes issues such as arms control, promotion of human rights, freedom of the press, and free and fair elections.
===
.

Seems like the Ukrainian forces are being turned inside out: they are exhausting their supply of old Soviet era equipment but are rapidly adopting NATO level of new arms. In effect Ukraine is becoming almost a NATO member already.

I wonder if the much higher degree of accuracy of Ukrainian artillery will offset the larger numbers of Russian shells fired?

von Koehler said:

Seems like the Ukrainian forces are being turned inside out: they are exhausting their supply of old Soviet era equipment but are rapidly adopting NATO level of new arms. In effect Ukraine is becoming almost a NATO member already.

I wonder if the much higher degree of accuracy of Ukrainian artillery will offset the larger numbers of Russian shells fired?

Click to expand...

Just a couple of comments according to some articles up thread.

Ukrainian General stated emphatically in an interview that Ukraine was a de-facto NATO country now.

Russian equipment keeps/jams NATO/Ukraine artillery from finding Russian guns, so are basically shooting in the dark. So accuracy is diminished. Remember called "Penicillin".

Oreally said:

a question for ever

Click to expand...

LightEcho said:

You may still be laughing, but if it were my country, I would certainly not be laughing. Once Russia starts the break-out, their armored forces will lead in big bite maneuvers enough to disrupt the defenses but slow enough for artillery and logistics to get in range. This is still the attrition stage with a transition beginning. You cannot presume the future from past experience.

As for casualties... it seems you have no idea what is happening there. It ain't good. Keep us up to date on your emotional status and when you stop laughing. I would guess by your attitude that most of Ukraine is being treated like mushrooms.

Click to expand...

Their armored forces will lead in big bite maneuvers enough to disrupt the defenses but slow enough for artillery and logistics to get in range. This is still the attrition stage with a transition beginning.

Armour 101.......Armour, Artillery, Logistics, [Support & Maintenance] and don't forget Air Support.

Tom McDowell said:

Russia Reportedly Confiscated All OSCE Donbass Vehicles And Donated Them To Frontline Troops​

Russia Reportedly Confiscated All OSCE Donbass Vehicles And Donated Them To Frontline Troops

www.bitchute.com

RT 00:44

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe is the world's largest regional security-oriented intergovernmental organization with observer status at the United Nations. Its mandate includes issues such as arms control, promotion of human rights, freedom of the press, and free and fair elections.
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Probably looted all of the washing machines also?