WEATHER Tropical Weather Time. Things are picking up in the Atlantic. 9/21/22 Hurricane Ian.

Warm Wisconsin

Warm Wisconsin

Easy as 3.141592653589..
pauldingbabe said:
Damn!

One track goes across FL, entering again in Savanah, then ending in the ATL.

Talk about going around your assh*le to get to your elbow!
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Yeah this type of track is the worst case for Tampa / St. Petersburg. The water build up in the bay would be the Katrina of Florida.

I am still planning chasing this storm in Horseshoe Beach unless the surge predictions exceed 15 feet.
 
Jackpine Savage

Jackpine Savage

Veteran Member
Charley was my first hurricane. Looking similar?

Charley%27sTurn.gif
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
A cousin of mine posted photos of Fox Roost Harbour. South West Coast, NL on facespy, both before and after Fiona. It has been completely destroyed! :( Such a gorgeous picturesque place.
 
Millwright

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
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Ian, they keep bumping the cone west.

Showing it to not be a major storm at landfall tho.

(compare to Post #89)
222953_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 
Millwright

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
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Don't forget about Gaston, way out in the Atlantic.

Earlier models had it breaking north or south.

It may just fizzle tho.

aal08_2022092500_track_early.png



222953_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 
Millwright

Millwright

Knuckle Dragger
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The 5 to 10 day forecast is interested in the South Caribbean.

This is a WAG, probability thing.

genprob.aeperts.2022092412.altg.120_240.png
 
Warm Wisconsin

Warm Wisconsin

Easy as 3.141592653589..
Millwright said:
This morning's update is holding the cone on Tallahassee.

The models are tightening up.


aal09_2022092512_track_early.png



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Cantori is famous for coming in just 48 before the storm. He brings an enormous group of people with him. We stayed at the same hotel the night before hurricane Delta.

If anything he reserved the hotel and isn’t on-site yet. He normally rents 4-5 places 5-7 days ahead of time so he can decide where to stay last minute.

If most realized how many hotel rooms the weather channel, cnn, fox and other’s reserves and screws over the locals needing to evacuate they would be pissed.

When I had my reservations for hurricane delta and the weather channel was pissed they wouldn’t kick us out even they didn’t need the room. They wanted to place to themselves. They offered me $200 to leave. $200! No a real incentive unless you are really poor.

I have less than respect for that man.
 
psychgirl

psychgirl

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Actually, I just visited fake book to look at my weather pages and Bam is all over the coverage of hurricane Ian hitting Florida this week.
 
Warm Wisconsin

Warm Wisconsin

Easy as 3.141592653589..
I am still keeping my reservations at Horseshoe Beach but I may not go now.

As I posted Friday if this storm slows down it will be a flooding hellhole mess for a large area.

I can see a situation where it goes slightly inland and then back out to sea. It could potentially sit over the area for 3-4 days.

Having been through multiple hurricanes. This is the worst situation to live through post storm. No power and all things outside become a real headache and dangerous.

Plus, there isn’t much I can do to help people. In a wind event I can chainsaw, move debris, tarp roofs and other heavy lifting items. With water…well water always wins. Without generators, pumps and hoses there isn’t much I can do to be a one man army.
 
Warm Wisconsin

Warm Wisconsin

Easy as 3.141592653589..
Firebird said:
So far, I'm still in the direct path, and we are only 25 miles from the coast :(
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If it travels that far north as the current path it should be 70% a rain event. However wet ground and slow storms can equal uprooted trees after the main event is past. However 25 miles in (unless your in the path of runoff water) you should be fairly safe.

I would plan for an extended power outage though.
 
Warm Wisconsin

Warm Wisconsin

Easy as 3.141592653589..
My big concern is Ian hasn’t really started to intensify yet. Ian was to peak early and be on the downside near landfall for many reasons. However, late start to the intensification process could mean stronger landfall.

Just something to keep your eye on with this storm.

If it’s not a hurricane by noon tomorrow then I change my opinion on this storm.
 
Ragnarok

Ragnarok

On and On, South of Heaven
Warm Wisconsin said:
My big concern is Ian hasn’t really started to intensify yet. Ian was to peak early and be on the downside near landfall for many reasons. However, late start to the intensification process could mean stronger landfall.

Just something to keep your eye on with this storm.

If it’s not a hurricane by noon tomorrow then I change my opinion on this storm.
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updated 3 hours ago

Tropical Storm Ian is about to undergo explosive intensification into a major hurricane in the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, a danger to the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and Florida in the coming days.

As Florida prepares for Ian, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for all 67 counties. This will make more resources available for storm preparation and will also activate members of the Florida National Guard to be put on standby ahead of Ian's arrival.

The National Hurricane Center issued a tropical storm watch for the lower Florida Keys Sunday evening. It is the first watch issued in the U.S.

The forecast has trended westward over the last day or so. There are aspects of the forecast in which we have more confidence, while others remain uncertain, which is typical for tropical forecasting this far out in time.

Here's a look at everything we know right now about Ian.

Latest Status​

Tropical Storm Ian is located in the western Caribbean Sea and is beginning to make its long-anticipated turn toward the northwest.

It is producing some outer bands of showers with locally heavy rain wrapping into Jamaica.

image


Satellite And Location
(The icon shows the location of the system's center.)

First Look At Forecast Path​

Here is the latest forecast path of Ian, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Ian will first track near the Cayman Islands, then western Cuba, then in the general direction either of the Florida Panhandle or Florida Peninsula.

image


Remember, impacts with any tropical storm or hurricane typically occur outside the cone and can arrive before the center.

Now, let's delve into more of the details with Ian's forecast and impacts.

Current Watches, Warnings and Caribbean Threats
A hurricane warning is in effect for Grand Cayman in the Cayman Islands, as well as for parts of western Cuba, as shown in the map below. This means hurricane conditions are expected, in this case by early Monday in Grand Cayman and by early Tuesday in western Cuba. Tropical storm conditions will arrive in those areas sooner, making preparations difficult.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for other parts of western and central Cuba, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected there Monday night or Tuesday.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the lower Florida Keys. A tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area by Tuesday night.

image


Storm surge flooding of up to 4 feet above normal tides may occur in the Cayman Islands into Monday. In western Cuba, a life-threatening storm surge of up to 14 feet above normal tide levels is possible Monday night into Tuesday in hurricane-warned areas where winds blow onshore.

Heavy rain is expected in parts of the western Caribbean from Ian through Monday or Tuesday. This could lead to dangerous flash flooding and mudslides in hilly and mountainous areas, particularly in Jamaica and western Cuba.

Up to 8 inches of rain may fall in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, and up to 16 inches could occur in western and central Cuba, according to the National Hurricane Center.

In the Florida Keys into southern and central Florida, up to 6 inches of rain are expected between Monday morning and Wednesday evening. Additionally, up to 3 feet of storm surge is expected in the Keys.

Forecast: How Strong?
Ian is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane in the western Caribbean Sea sometime Sunday or early Monday.

Rapid intensification is expected as the storm approaches western Cuba. Ian could be Category 3 status at that point.

Lower wind shear and an ample supply of warm, deep water in the Caribbean Sea are factors expected to contribute to Ian's rapid strengthening ahead.

Ian could also get a boost from the Loop Current, a northward current of warm water from the western Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico long known to be a fuel source for intense Gulf hurricanes.
By the time it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday, Ian could be at Category 4 intensity.

image


Ocean Heat Content
(This map shows areas of deep, warm water color-coded according to the legend. All other factors equal, deep, warm water helps fuel intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes. )
After that, increased wind shear may cause Ian's winds to weaken a bit as it approaches the northern or eastern Gulf Coast later this week.

However, the size of Ian's circulation will also grow and it may also slow down somewhat in the Gulf of Mexico, meaning it will be a formidable hurricane, regardless of its wind intensity, when it reaches the U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.

Forecast: Where Is It Headed?
For now, computer forecast models curl Ian northward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday.

However, the range of possible tracks remains from the Florida Panhandle to some part of the Florida Peninsula.

NOAA's Gulfstream high-altitude flights and extra balloon launches from National Weather Service offices are being conducted to help the computer forecast models narrow this considerable, but typical, track uncertainty.


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Computer Model Forecast Tracks Next 5 Days
(The lines on this graphic represent several of the many track forecasts from various computer models. This is not an official forecast, but these are used as guidance for creating the projected path.)
Ian's growth in size and its potential to slow down as it nears the Gulf Coast makes it a formidable storm surge threat, regardless of any intensity it may lose before landfall, as alluded to earlier.

Bands of heavier rain well ahead of Ian could begin in Florida as soon as Monday.

Up to 6 inches of rain is possible from the Florida Keys to the southern and western Florida Peninsula through early Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service. That heavy rain could trigger flash flooding.

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Rainfall Outlook
(This should be interpreted as a broad outlook of where the heaviest rain may fall and may shift based on the forecast path of the tropical cyclone. Higher amounts may occur where bands of rain stall over a period of a few hours. )
This isn't just a Florida or Gulf Coast story.

Ian will then either move inland somewhere over the Southeast U.S., or could track near or along parts of the Eastern Seaboard late this week.

It's far too soon to tell where Ian will end up, but there could be wind, flooding rain and other impacts extending into other parts of the East late this week.

For now, all interests near and along the Gulf Coast, including Florida, and in the Eastern U.S. should monitor Ian's forecast and make sure hurricane plans are in place, in case they are needed.

Check back with us at weather.com for the very latest on this developing situation.
weather.com

Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Issued For Parts of Florida Ahead of Ian | The Weather Channel

Here's what we know, and don't yet know, about this latest storm, Ian. - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com
weather.com weather.com
 
Firebird

Firebird

Has No Life - Lives on TB
We had tropical storm Faye hit us about 15 years ago or so, and it dumped 36" of rain on us, caused a lot of issues
 
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