WAR trouble brewing again in ukraine

N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Three critical 24 hours bring border change: Russia announces Union with Belarus and doubles border with NATO - Ukraine's disintegration follows! Shock in NATO, Poland and the Baltic

Columnist: Vasilis Kapoulas
WarNews 247
April 18 2021
Translated from Greek

Three very critical 24 hours now travel Russia-Ukraine and Belarus as there is a double plan to expand the front from Moscow: Union with Belarus and annexation of territories from Ukraine.

WarNews247, which first spoke today about Russia's "enlargement" of the front, is confirmed. We were particularly impressed by the transfer late last night of a Russian AWACS to Kaliningrad. We were also impressed by the large military mobilisation three weeks ago in Belarus on the border with Poland and Ukraine.

Russian sources last night said that " Lukashenko's provocation of a death threat is aimed at the legitimate entry of Russian forces into Belarus, and why not, the union with Russia".

The Russian design as it unfolds is simple:
  1. Official association with Belarus
  2. Doubling the Russia-NATO border
  3. Kaliningrad just a stone's throw away
  4. Dismantling Ukraine and cutting it off from the Black Sea
  5. Last Goal Transdness
First objective: Russia-Belarus Union

The plan is nothing new. It's been on the cards for many years, at least since 1999. There are plans for a common currency, a common Parliament, a Constitution, a judicial system and other institutions.

Since 2000 Russia and Belarus have united many systems, making them unofficially "one state".

Today and yesterday A. Lukashenko made the following statements:

"In the near future I will make one of the most important decisions of my life in the quarter of a century that I rule.

We'll formalize it and announce it.

It will be one of my most basic decisions and it will be a very serious choice of mine.

That's why I say it in public, it's only over my body that we're not going to succeed.'

The decision will be implemented by presidential decree.

As WarNews247 has already reported, on 21 April the President of Russia, Vladimir V. Putin, will announce to Parliament and the Russian people a very important decision.

The following day, on 22 April, it has already been decided to meet the two presidents of Russia and Belarus.

Then there will be a Council of Ministers and then the Supreme Council of the State of the United State.

Russian media emphatically note that "only economic and political unification with Russia will avoid a "colorful revolution in Belarus".


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Second objective: Destruction of Ukraine

In Ukraine, they probably don't understand anything. Maybe they don't think Russia will attack with all its might. Because if they believed it, there would already be nationwide mobilization and conscription.

A while ago, Russian tanks were also displayed using a snorkel for deep-sea crossings. It is the second huge "bell" to ring after the transfer of river coupling systems.

Apparently the Russians are targeting the Siverskyi Donetsk River crossing in Lugansk and the Kal'mius River in Donetsk.

Only the 58th Army that was transferred to Crimea as revealed yesterday by WarNews247 has:
  1. Three Airborne Offensive Battalions
  2. A Reconnaissance Battalion
  3. An Artillery Battalion
  4. Anti-Aircraft Defence
  5. Snipers
  6. Tank Brigade
What has Ukraine done to protect itself against the huge build-up of Russian forces in Crimea and Krasnodar? Nothing. And not only that.

The worst part is, he can't.

It has transferred all its forces to Donbass and north of Crimea.

There are no defenses next to the strategically important city of Kharkiv.

There are no fortifications, no military preparations. Everyone's been sent to Donbass.

They are all forces committed to attacking the Russians in Donbass whose other cities are defenseless.

Now let's look at the Russian d'abatic power.

In total Russia now has 11 large ships and 8 smaller ones in the Black Sea and the Azov Sea.

It can carry 4,500 Marines along with armored vehicles.

Each can carry 10 tanks and 340 soldiers, while the small tanks can carry 100 Marines. It has also carried corvettes and missiles.

A short time ago Russian media reported that nine ships of the Russian Fleet were already blocking the exit to the Sea of Azov for the Ukrainian Navy...

Τρία κρίσιμα 24ώρα φέρνουν αλλαγή συνόρων: Η Ρωσία ανακοινώνει την Ένωση με Λευκορωσία και διπλασιάζει τα σύνορα με ΝΑΤΟ – Ακολουθεί η διάλυση της Ουκρανίας! - WarNews247
 
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Lurker

Lurker

14
Belarus; the key to it all. The price must have been very, very high to someone for them to go along with Uncle Vlad.

Now da Uke's have a northern front to worry about and barely defend. The 3 Amigo countries now have a major headache.

Too bad NATO is a shell, at best, of itself.

See, the commies just had to wait it out. They'll have all of da Uke soon, the 3 Amigo's back soon enough, and 'America' will be a commie, leftist, fag, eco cesspool in just another election or two.

All the canning lids in the world won't save our asses. Good luck!
 
Lurker

Lurker

14
northern watch said:
Three critical 24 hours bring border change: Russia announces Union with Belarus and doubles border with NATO - Ukraine's disintegration follows! Shock in NATO, Poland and the Baltic

Columnist: Vasilis Kapoulas
WarNews 247
April 18 2021
Translated from Greek

Three very critical 24 hours now travel Russia-Ukraine and Belarus as there is a double plan to expand the front from Moscow: Union with Belarus and annexation of territories from Ukraine.

WarNews247, which first spoke today about Russia's "enlargement" of the front, is confirmed. We were particularly impressed by the transfer late last night of a Russian AWACS to Kaliningrad. We were also impressed by the large military mobilisation three weeks ago in Belarus on the border with Poland and Ukraine.

Russian sources last night said that " Lukashenko's provocation of a death threat is aimed at the legitimate entry of Russian forces into Belarus, and why not, the union with Russia".

The Russian design as it unfolds is simple:
  1. Official association with Belarus
  2. Doubling the Russia-NATO border
  3. Kaliningrad just a stone's throw away
  4. Dismantling Ukraine and cutting it off from the Black Sea
  5. Last Goal Transdness
First objective: Russia-Belarus Union

The plan is nothing new. It's been on the cards for many years, at least since 1999. There are plans for a common currency, a common Parliament, a Constitution, a judicial system and other institutions.

Since 2000 Russia and Belarus have united many systems, making them unofficially "one state".

Today and yesterday A. Lukashenko made the following statements:

"In the near future I will make one of the most important decisions of my life in the quarter of a century that I rule.

We'll formalize it and announce it.

It will be one of my most basic decisions and it will be a very serious choice of mine.

That's why I say it in public, it's only over my body that we're not going to succeed.'

The decision will be implemented by presidential decree.

As WarNews247 has already reported, on 21 April the President of Russia, Vladimir V. Putin, will announce to Parliament and the Russian people a very important decision.

The following day, on 22 April, it has already been decided to meet the two presidents of Russia and Belarus.

Then there will be a Council of Ministers and then the Supreme Council of the State of the United State.

Russian media emphatically note that "only economic and political unification with Russia will avoid a "colorful revolution in Belarus".


45-1-2.jpg




Second objective: Destruction of Ukraine

In Ukraine, they probably don't understand anything. Maybe they don't think Russia will attack with all its might. Because if they believed it, there would already be nationwide mobilization and conscription.

A while ago, Russian tanks were also displayed using a snorkel for deep-sea crossings. It is the second huge "bell" to ring after the transfer of river coupling systems.

Apparently the Russians are targeting the Siverskyi Donetsk River crossing in Lugansk and the Kal'mius River in Donetsk.

Only the 58th Army that was transferred to Crimea as revealed yesterday by WarNews247 has:
  1. Three Airborne Offensive Battalions
  2. A Reconnaissance Battalion
  3. An Artillery Battalion
  4. Anti-Aircraft Defence
  5. Snipers
  6. Tank Brigade
What has Ukraine done to protect itself against the huge build-up of Russian forces in Crimea and Krasnodar? Nothing. And not only that.

The worst part is, he can't.

It has transferred all its forces to Donbass and north of Crimea.

There are no defenses next to the strategically important city of Kharkiv.

There are no fortifications, no military preparations. Everyone's been sent to Donbass.

They are all forces committed to attacking the Russians in Donbass whose other cities are defenseless.

Now let's look at the Russian d'abatic power.

In total Russia now has 11 large ships and 8 smaller ones in the Black Sea and the Azov Sea.

It can carry 4,500 Marines along with armored vehicles.

Each can carry 10 tanks and 340 soldiers, while the small tanks can carry 100 Marines. It has also carried corvettes and missiles.

A short time ago Russian media reported that nine ships of the Russian Fleet were already blocking the exit to the Sea of Azov for the Ukrainian Navy...

Τρία κρίσιμα 24ώρα φέρνουν αλλαγή συνόρων: Η Ρωσία ανακοινώνει την Ένωση με Λευκορωσία και διπλασιάζει τα σύνορα με ΝΑΤΟ – Ακολουθεί η διάλυση της Ουκρανίας! - WarNews247
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Maybe Uncle Jo and Aunt Ho will send in the 82nd.
 
Vegas321

Vegas321

Live free and survive
Stuff is getting so REAL now. Russia is not playing this time. They are about to go too war.
I pray a US sub has not entered the Black sea. They are fair game as i'm concerned.
It's like a Russin sub has entered the Great lakes.
Uncle Joe and the Ho, need to be tossed out now. They don't even belong in office legally, as far as im concerned.
 
Melodi

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Friends in the area now reporting the Union between Russia and Belarus is now on the Swiss news stations, I haven't seen any other outlets yet but I suspect we will. I'll try to keep an eye on Sky and other European English language stations.

Northern Watch you might want to start a separate thread as I gather this story is huge.
 
Melodi

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Just heard via the grapevine that Swiss TV may now be walking this story back a bit, so probably just wait until tomorrow to see if this turns out to be true (a Union between Russian Belarus) is just a rumor or something in between.
 
N

NCGirl

Veteran Member
jward said:
For those of us using twitter posts, remember that not everyone finds them visible, and that as the phog of war ramps up, the information is likely as not to be changed, or withdrawn entirely, on the fly, either by the original poster or twitter itself.. so if it is really big, you might want to be sure to capture it in it's entirety.

10k US to donbas? Any thoughts out there on that? I want to say its part of the misinformation campaign, but I have no idea at all...
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It would be great if people could screenshot then post that with the link. Half the time twitter posts don't show up for me!
 
J

joannita

Veteran Member
Plain Jane said:
And then came the final mistake when Nikita Khrushchev, very much a product of the Ukrainian regional power center, paid it back for helping to promote him to the top job by giving it Russian Crimea—a move that was illegal under the Soviet constitution which was in effect at that time and a prime example of late Bolshevik political corruption that was undone in 2014 with great jubilation.



There are those who think that the solution to the Ukrainian problem is to take the Ukraine apart the same way it was put together. Behold the following map. Moving east to west, we have the Russian tricolor over Crimea (the only factual bit so far), then the flag of Novorussia covering all those territories that were arbitrarily lumped into the newly created Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic by Lenin in 1922. Further west we have the flag of the state of Ukraine. And to the west is the flag of the Right Sector, a nationalist party with distinct Nazi tendencies that is currently active in Ukrainian politics.




I believe that, with the exception of Crimea, this map may very well turn out to be complete and utter nonsense. It seems outlandish to think that the Ukrainian Humpty-Dumpty, which is in the process of being knocked off the wall most unceremoniously by just about everyone, including Russia, the EU and the US, is going to break apart into such tidy, historically justifiable pieces. For one thing, national borders don’t matter so much any more once you are east of the Russian border, all of Europe now being one big unhappy mess. With millions of Ukrainians trying to eke out a living by working in Russia, or Poland, or further West, the distinctions between the various bits of the Ukrainian territory they are from are just not that meaningful to anyone.

For another, all of the Ukraine is now owned by the same bunch of oligarchs whose fortunes are tightly integrated with those of transnational corporations and of Western financial institutions. None of them care at all about the people that once inhabited this region and their varied histories and linguistic preferences. They care about translating economic and financial control directly into political control with a minimum of diplomatic politesse. The Ukraine has been in the process of being stripped bare of anything valuable for 30 years now, up to and including its fertile soil, and once there is nothing left to loot it will be abandoned as a wild field, largely uninhabited.

But we are not quite there yet, and for now the only map that really matters is the following one, which shows the two separatist regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, collectively known as Donbass, short for Donetsk Basin, a prolific coal province that was mainly responsible for fueling the Ukraine’s former industrial might, which to this day continues to produce anthracite, a valuable, energy-rich coal that is now scarce in the world. It is that relatively tiny but densely populated sliver of land along the Russian border, less than 100km across in many places, that is the powder keg that some believe may set off World War III.



The Ukrainian military has been massing troops and armor along the line of separation while the Russian military has pulled up its forces to their side of the border. Shelling, sniper fire and other provocations from the Ukrainian side are intensifying, with the hope of provoking the Russians into moving forces onto Ukrainian territory, thus allowing the collective West to shout “Aha! Russian aggression!” Then they could put a stop to Nord Stream II pipeline, scoring a major geopolitical victory for Washington and follow that up with plenty of other belligerent moves designed to hurt Russia politically and economically.

For the Russians, there are no good choices that are obvious.

  • Not responding to Ukrainian provocations and doing nothing while they shell and invade the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk, killing Russian citizens who live there, would make Russia look weak, undermine the Russian government’s position domestically and cost it a great deal of geopolitical capital internationally.
  • Responding to Ukrainian provocations with overwhelming military force and crushing the Ukrainian military as was done in Georgia in 2008 would be popular domestically but could potentially lead to a major escalation and possibly an all-out war with NATO. Even if militarily the conflict is contained and NATO forces sit it out, as they did in Georgia, the political ramifications would cause much damage to the Russian economy through tightened sanctions and disruptions to international trade.
Those being the obvious bad choices, what are the obvious good ones, if any?

Here, we have to pay careful attention to the official pronouncements Putin has made over the years, and to take them as face value.


The answer, I believe, is obvious: evacuation. There are around 3.2 million residents in Donetsk People’s Republic and 1.4 million in Lugansk People’s Republic, for a total of some 4.6 million residents. This may seem like a huge number, but it’s moderate by the scale of World War II evacuations. Keep in mind that Russia has already absorbed over a million Ukrainian migrants and refugees without much of a problem. Also, Russia is currently experiencing a major labor shortage, and an infusion of able-bodied Russians would be most welcome.

Domestically, the evacuation would likely be quite popular: Russia is doing right by its own people by pulling them out of harm’s way. The patriotic base would be energized and the already very active Russian volunteer movement would swing into action to assist the Emergencies Ministry in helping move and resettle the evacuees. The elections that are to take place later this year would turn into a nationwide welcoming party for several million new voters. The Donbass evacuation could pave the way for other waves of repatriation that are likely to follow. There are some 20 million Russians scattered throughout the world, and as the world outside Russia plunges deeper and deeper into resource scarcity they too will want to come home. While they may presently be reluctant to do so, seeing the positive example of how the Donbass evacuees are treated could help change their minds.

The negative optics of surrendering territory can be countered by not surrendering any territory. As a guarantor of the Minsk Agreements, Russia must refuse to surrender the Donbass to the Ukrainian government until it fulfills the terms of these agreements, which it has shown no intention of doing for seven years now and which it has recently repudiated altogether. It is important to note that the Russian military can shoot straight across all of Donbass without setting foot on Ukrainian soil. Should the Ukrainian forces attempt to enter Donbass, they will be dealt with as shown in the following instructional video. Note that the maximum range of the Tornado-G system shown in the video is 120km.



And should the Ukrainians care to respond by attacking Russian territory, another one of Putin’s pronouncements helps us understand what would happen next: if attacked, Russia will respond not just against the attackers but also against the centers of decision-making responsible for the attack. The Ukrainian command in Kiev, as well as its NATO advisers, would probably keep this statement in mind when considering their steps.

The Donbass evacuation should resonate rather well internationally. It would be a typical Putin judo move knocking NATO and the US State Department off-balance. Since this would be a large humanitarian mission, it would be ridiculous to attempt to portray it as “Russian aggression.” On the other hand, Russia would be quite within its rights to issue stern warnings that any attempt to interfere with the evacuation or to launch provocations during the evacuation process would be dealt with very harshly, freeing Russia’s hands in dispatching to God the berserkers from the Ukraine’s Nazi battalions, some of whom don’t particularly like to follow orders.

The West would be left with the following status quo. The Donbass is empty of residents but off-limits to them or to the Ukrainians. The evacuation would in no sense change the standing or the negotiating position of the evacuees and their representatives vis-à-vis the Minsk agreements, locking this situation in place until Kiev undertakes constitutional reform, becomes a federation and grants full autonomy to Donbass, or until the Ukrainian state ceases to exist and is partitioned. The Ukraine would be unable to join NATO (a pipe dream which it has stupidly voted into its constitution) since this would violate the NATO charter, given that it does not control its own territory.

Further sanctions against Russia would become even more difficult to justify, since it would be untenable to accuse it of aggression for undertaking a humanitarian mission to protect its own citizens or for carrying out its responsibilities as a guarantor of the Minsk agreements. The Donbass would remain as a stalker zone roamed by Russian battlefield robots sniping Ukrainian marauders, with the odd busload of schoolchildren there on a field trip to lay flowers on the graves of their ancestors. Its ruined Soviet-era buildings, not made any newer by three decades of Ukrainian abuse and neglect, will bear silent witness to the perpetual ignominy of the failed Ukrainian state.

History is as often driven by accident as by logic, but since we cannot predict accidents, logic is the only tool we have in trying to guess the shape of the future. Rephrasing Voltaire, this, then, is the best that we can expect to happen in this the best of all possible worlds.
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Very interesting and informative; ty for taking the time to post it.
 
AlfaMan

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
jward said:

EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3


Russia deploys attack aircraft in occupied Crimea
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1383623707466166276
View: https://twitter.com/EndGameWW3/status/1383623707466166276?s=20
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Lovely. Two tidbits to remember about the SU-25 Frogfoot ground attack aircraft. It's 100 knots faster than an A-10 Warthog. Another tidbit is the fairly extensive use of titanium armor in the aircraft. The pilot literally sits in a titanium bathtub which surrounds him. There's the same type of armor protecting the low slung engines (which make the SU-25 have more than a passing resemblence to the Northrop A-9; the loser of the ground attack aircraft competition which gave the USAF the A-10 Warthog. Reverse engineering, anyone?)
If you're going to attack a Frogfoot, you do it from high and the rear-visibility in the plane is about as good as the Mig-21. A mirror or periscope for rear vision only does so much.
In the initial variants; ripple firing the air to ground rockets was enough to stuff up the engines and shut them down. Extra extraction doors on the upper fuselage seemed to help that issue in later models. And twin water cooled barrels 30mm cannon too. Not the GAU-8 as carried on the A-10 but quite effective.

With the SU-24s Russia had brought in the high coverage-with the SU-25's they now have the ground attack option. It's close folks.
 
AlfaMan

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Melodi said:
Just heard via the grapevine that Swiss TV may now be walking this story back a bit, so probably just wait until tomorrow to see if this turns out to be true (a Union between Russian Belarus) is just a rumor or something in between.
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Methinks Lukashenko is going to give the Russians a Slavic Anschluss. With that little issue, The Ukraine now will be dealing with a literal 2 front war. No way they could either win or hold in that situation.
God help the Ukrainians.
 
N

northern watch

TB Fanatic
Melodi said:
Friends in the area now reporting the Union between Russia and Belarus is now on the Swiss news stations, I haven't seen any other outlets yet but I suspect we will. I'll try to keep an eye on Sky and other European English language stations.

Northern Watch you might want to start a separate thread as I gather this story is huge.
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I agree this story is huge
 
Red Baron

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
AlfaMan said:
Lovely. Two tidbits to remember about the SU-25 Frogfoot ground attack aircraft. It's 100 knots faster than an A-10 Warthog. Another tidbit is the fairly extensive use of titanium armor in the aircraft. The pilot literally sits in a titanium bathtub which surrounds him. There's the same type of armor protecting the low slung engines (which make the SU-25 have more than a passing resemblence to the Northrop A-9; the loser of the ground attack aircraft competition which gave the USAF the A-10 Warthog. Reverse engineering, anyone?)
If you're going to attack a Frogfoot, you do it from high and the rear-visibility in the plane is about as good as the Mig-21. A mirror or periscope for rear vision only does so much.
In the initial variants; ripple firing the air to ground rockets was enough to stuff up the engines and shut them down. Extra extraction doors on the upper fuselage seemed to help that issue in later models. And twin water cooled barrels 30mm cannon too. Not the GAU-8 as carried on the A-10 but quite effective.

With the SU-24s Russia had brought in the high coverage-with the SU-25's they now have the ground attack option. It's close folks.
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Runtime 20:51

Su-25 Frogfoot - The Russian Flying Tank

View: https://youtu.be/ZCnbNfCT_J4
 
Doomer Doug

Doomer Doug

TB Fanatic
AlfaMan said:
And that's the opening pitch to the ballgame folks. There's now no direct contact between the Russian and Ukrainian governments.
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Plus Russia
and Belarus are "merging." Game over.

The ukie leader went to Europe and found out his "guarantees" are worthless..No NATO membership, no credible military assistance against 100,000, plus Ruskies now coming in from the north. One of the reasons this may head south is I don't believe the ukies gave up all their nuke warheads back in the 1990s.

Get some neo nazis drop a dirty nuke on russian forces and we got a whole new ball game.
April 20th is adolph's b_day also.
 
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Lurker

Lurker

14
Doomer Doug said:
Plus Russia
and Belarus are "merging." Game over.

The ukie leader went to Europe and found out his "guarantees" are worthless..No NATO membership, no credible military assistance against 100,000, plus Ruskies now coming in from the north. One of the reasons this may head south is I don't believe the ukies gave up all their nuke warheads back in the 1990s.

Get some neo nazis drop a dirty nuke on russian forces and we got a whole new ball game.
April 20th is adolph's b_day also.
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Fun times.
 
AlfaMan

AlfaMan

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Doomer Doug said:
Plus Russia
and Belarus are "merging." Game over.

The ukie leader went to Europe and found out his "guarantees" are worthless..No NATO membership, no credible military assistance against 100,000, plus Ruskies now coming in from the north. One of the reasons this may head south is I don't believe the ukies gave up all their nuke warheads back in the 1990s.

Get some neo nazis drop a dirty nuke on russian forces and we got a whole new ball game.
April 20th is adolph's b_day also.
Click to expand...

The Ukraine-the new sick man of Europe.
 
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