Solar Grand Solar Minimum part deux

Good grief, we're looking at about 4" of snow on Sunday. Lovely!

"Sudden Stratospheric Warming" May Trigger Wild Winter Weather For Northeast | ZeroHedge

"Sudden Stratospheric Warming" May Trigger Wild Winter Weather For Northeast

BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, JAN 08, 2021 - 19:25

Readers, some troubling developments in the Arctic may impact weather conditions in the US and Europe. In about a week, from late December to early January, temperatures miles above the Arctic have soared. This means that the polar vortex could be splitting in two and may produce wild winter weather in the weeks ahead, according to CBS.



The massive spike in temperatures is happening miles above the North Pole. The sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, experts say, could produce significant winter events across the Northern Hemisphere.

This could mean parts of the US and Europe may soon experience paralyzing snowstorms and frigid temperatures.

SWW involves warming temperatures 50,000 to 100,000 feet above the Arctic that disrupts the Arctic stratosphere, known as the polar vortex.

Last winter, there was limited disruption as the cold air was limited to the Arctic, which resulted in less snow for Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. But happening now, the SWW is weakening the polar vortex as it wobbles and can split off into two, pushing colder air into the US, Europe, and Asia.

CBS News Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli tweeted an image to illustrate what is happening in the Stratosphere right now. He said, "polar Vortex, which typically would be near the North Pole and very cold (purple) is displaced south and split as the Sudden Stratospheric warming occurs."



Weather models suggest the first round of colder temperatures will occur over Europe and eastern Asia through mid-January. Then the US by late month.

"Along with a gradual building of cold air over the coming weeks in the East, the jet stream setup will provide many opportunities for snowstorms. While many will not materialize, with a prolonged pattern favorable for extreme winter weather, the odds are that pieces of the puzzle will come together for a couple of memorable winter storms," CBS News said.



Dr. Judah Cohen, an expert of SSW events at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, expects extreme winter weather from the SSW could last for at least a month.

"Following an SSW, the period of increased risk of cold air outbreaks and snowstorms usually lasts from four to eight weeks. It is not cold and snowing continuously, but rather it is episodic," Cohen explained.

Click to expand...

BAMWX's Kirk Hinz outlined earlier this week that "we are starting to see a change in the forecast atmospheric pattern drivers ahead that *could* lead to a more favorable pattern for wintry risks beyond Jan ~15th."

Breaking down the risk for more wintery weather, Hinz showed Jan. 13 to Jan. 20 is a timeframe when increased probabilities of snowstorms from Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic, and Northeast areas could materialize.



Commodity desks tend to look at weather models a couple of weeks out. If an SSW event is underway and colder temperatures are ahead - this could be beneficial for natgas prices.

Snowstorm headed for Texas - Ice Age Now

Snowstorm headed for Texas
January 8, 2021 by Robert

But first it will hit Colorado, New Mexico and Oklahoma.

A cold storm system over southern Oregon will drop southeastward tonight and bring significant snow accumulations to much of eastern New Mexico beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing through Sunday morning. Hazardous winter travel impacts are forecast mainly for the Rio Grande Valley eastward.

The storm system should move into North and Central Texas Saturday night and exit the region Sunday night, leaving up to 6 inches (15 cm) in the southwest Texas Panhandle.



Most of the area is expected to receive snowfall.

The heaviest snow should remain to the south and west of Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) with widespread 1-3″ possible.

The forecast map from the National Weather Service shows snow dipping as far south as Waco and Temple, whialmost as far south as Austin.



We do expect bands of heavy snow to develop, and some may produce localized higher amounts.

We still do not know where these bands will develop, but are confident in the high-end amount inside of those bands.

These values are subject to change over the next 24-36 hours!

Fort Worth/Dallas, TX

Albuquerque, NM

https://www.weather.gov/pub/

Amarillo, TX

What will people do for food when much of Europe and North America is too cold to farm? - Ice Age Now

What will people do for food when much of Europe and North America is too cold to farm?
January 8, 2021 by Robert

“World temperatures go up and down in cycles but the big cycle that people ignore is the cycle of ice ages.”
– Joseph Kraig
____________

What will people do for food when much of Europe and North America is too cold to farm?
Joseph Kraig

Glacier National Park has had signs for the last quarter century reminding visitors that the glaciers were getting smaller due to global warming. Last year they had to be taken down because the glaciers have been advancing for the last several years.

It is true that snow melts in the summer. Where there are glaciers there is an imbalance of melting to snowing accumulation. When glaciers advance it is telling us that there is less melting than snow fall.

For several years retreating glaciers in Europe have made the headlines with the discovery of human remains found under the glaciers that were exposed due to the retreat. How interesting to think that we fear global warming when it is obvious that the world was once much warmer.

To know that farming settlements on Greenland have had to be abandoned because of global cooling should open a few eyes but sadly it does not happen.

World temperatures go up and down in cycles but the big cycle that people ignore is the cycle of ice ages that say we are near the end of an inter-glacial warm period. We’ve had it nice for the last 11,000-12,000 years but I fear the enjoyable warmth is coming to an end.

What people will do for food when much of Europe and North America is too cold to farm is a mystery to me.

Sounding the alarm of global warming might be a popular thing to do but it is a mistaken viewpoint not based on science or history but on emotion.

People think, “all those cars must be hurting the environment, lets get rid of them.” They use global warming as the reason to get rid of fossil fuels but they are terribly misguided. There is no proven research to say that carbon dioxide actually traps heat as in the so called greenhouse effect, in fact there is research that debunks that idea. Our carbon-based fuels have allowed us to have our modern civilization. We will need our carbon based fuels until fusion fuels can be developed that work. Fusion-based economy is always just 30 years around the corner. I’m sure we will develop the fusion economy and it may really just be years away. However long it takes, fossil fuels will effectively sustain us very well until then.

I have no problem with Solar and wind power. I have two homes and have solar power on both of them, but the entire earth fitted out with windmills and solar panels will not satisfy our tremendous need for energy with any reliability. Harvesting the sun’s energy is a grand idea, perhaps many square miles of solar panels in space and the energy beamed back to earth would be nearly as economical as fusion plants but I don’t think so.

People should not speak in ignorance. What has happened to our society is that many people listen to a tiny fraction of science and make a decision of what is best for the world based on that. A tiny fraction of of information used to make a decision when much more information should be used is still ignorance.

China Power Demand Hits Record As Polar Vortex Split Pours Arctic Air Into Region

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
FRIDAY, JAN 08, 2021 - 22:05

The Beijing meteorological station recorded one of the coldest temperatures in decades this past week, sending power demand through the roof.

Lei Lei, the chief forecaster for Beijing meteorological station, told China Daily that the first cold wave in 2021 features a "dramatic temperature drop," "significant wind-chill effect," and "prolonged period of low temperature."

On January 7, Beijing recorded the coldest day since the 1960s while cities such as the eastern port city of Qingdao recorded the lowest temperature in history, according to Reuters.





China's State Grid reports peak power load hit record highs in at least nine provincial grid systems in northern China. These areas are considered China's industrial belt, where a manufacturing recovery is underway.



"The (latest) historic peak load came as extremely cold weather increased demand for electricity-powered heating facilities, which account for 48.2% of total load," an official from the State Grid was quoted by Reuters.

China has spent the last several years swapping out coal-burning power stations for electricity-fueled heating devices as part of a green energy campaign to combat air pollution in northern regions. Power demand has been so high because of the severe cold that state-backed China Huaneng Group had to fire up a coal plant earlier this month to meet surging electricity demand.

Last month, China imported a record volume of liquefied natural gas as heating fuel demand soared for tens of millions of households.

According to Goldman Sachs, colder temperatures may increase the probability of COVID-19 outbreaks. This week alone, China implemented travel restrictions in Hebei, a province neighboring Beijing after a spike in coronavirus cases.

A possible theory behind the wicked cold weather in China could be sudden stratospheric warming pushing colder air into Asia.




If SSW theory is correct, this would mean a weakening polar vortex would also bring colder air into Europe and the US.


China Power Demand Hits Record As Polar Vortex Split Pours Arctic Air Into Region | ZeroHedge

Blizzard covers Spain in white, brings Madrid to standstill
An unusual and persistent blizzard has blanketed large parts of Spain with snow, blocking traffic and leaving thousands trapped in cars or in train stations and airports that have suspended all services
By ARITZ PARRA Associated Press
9 January 2021, 01:36




MADRID -- An unusual and persistent blizzard has blanketed large parts of Spain with snow, freezing traffic and leaving thousands trapped in cars or in train stations and airports that had suspended all services as the snow kept falling on Saturday.

The capital, Madrid, and other parts of central Spain activated for the first time a red weather alert, the highest, and called in the military to rescue people from vehicles trapped on everything from small roads to the city's major thoroughfares.

The national AEMET weather agency had warned that some regions would be receiving more than 24 hours of continuous snowfall due to the odd combination of a cold air mass stagnant over the Iberian Peninsula and the arrival of the warmer Storm Filomena from the south.

AEMET had said that up to 20 centimeters (nearly 8 inches) of snow could accumulate in large parts of the country but the build-up reached more than 50 centimeters even in urban areas. The storm is expected to move northeast throughout Saturday, the agency said.

Carlos Novillo, head of the Madrid emergency agency, said that more than 1,000 vehicles had become trapped, mostly on the city's ring road and the main motorway that leads from the capital to the south, toward the Castilla La Mancha and Andalucia regions.

“The situation remains of high risk. This is a very complex phenomenon and a critical situation," Novillo said Saturday morning in a message posted on social media.

“We ask all those who remain trapped to be patient, we will get to you," he added.

Airport operator AENA said that the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas International Airport, the main gateway in and out of the country, would remain closed throughout the day after the blizzard bested machines and workers trying to keep the runways clear of snow.

All trains into and out of Madrid, both commuter routes and long-distance passenger trains, as well as railway lines between the south and the northeast of the country, were suspended, railway operator Renfe said.

The storm had caused serious disruptions or closed altogether over 430 roads by Saturday morning, according to Spain’s transit authorities, which urged people to stay indoors and avoid all non-essential travel.

The wintry weather even halted the country's soccer league, with some of the La Liga top teams unable to travel for games. A flight to Madrid carrying players of the current leader in the championship, Athletic Bilbao, had to return to the Bilbao airport, while the second-place Real Madrid team was unable to take off for its match against Osasuna on Saturday night.

The blizzard also yielded unusual images for many Madrileños, including a few brave people heading out with their ski gear on a main commercial avenue and in the central Puerta del Sol square, and even a dog sled that was seen on videos widely circulated on social media.

Blizzard covers Spain in white, brings Madrid to standstill - ABC News (go.com)

TxGal said:

What will people do for food when much of Europe and North America is too cold to farm? - Ice Age Now

What will people do for food when much of Europe and North America is too cold to farm?
January 8, 2021 by Robert

“World temperatures go up and down in cycles but the big cycle that people ignore is the cycle of ice ages.”
– Joseph Kraig
____________

What will people do for food when much of Europe and North America is too cold to farm?
Joseph Kraig

Glacier National Park has had signs for the last quarter century reminding visitors that the glaciers were getting smaller due to global warming. Last year they had to be taken down because the glaciers have been advancing for the last several years.

It is true that snow melts in the summer. Where there are glaciers there is an imbalance of melting to snowing accumulation. When glaciers advance it is telling us that there is less melting than snow fall.

For several years retreating glaciers in Europe have made the headlines with the discovery of human remains found under the glaciers that were exposed due to the retreat. How interesting to think that we fear global warming when it is obvious that the world was once much warmer.

To know that farming settlements on Greenland have had to be abandoned because of global cooling should open a few eyes but sadly it does not happen.

World temperatures go up and down in cycles but the big cycle that people ignore is the cycle of ice ages that say we are near the end of an inter-glacial warm period. We’ve had it nice for the last 11,000-12,000 years but I fear the enjoyable warmth is coming to an end.

What people will do for food when much of Europe and North America is too cold to farm is a mystery to me.

Sounding the alarm of global warming might be a popular thing to do but it is a mistaken viewpoint not based on science or history but on emotion.

People think, “all those cars must be hurting the environment, lets get rid of them.” They use global warming as the reason to get rid of fossil fuels but they are terribly misguided. There is no proven research to say that carbon dioxide actually traps heat as in the so called greenhouse effect, in fact there is research that debunks that idea. Our carbon-based fuels have allowed us to have our modern civilization. We will need our carbon based fuels until fusion fuels can be developed that work. Fusion-based economy is always just 30 years around the corner. I’m sure we will develop the fusion economy and it may really just be years away. However long it takes, fossil fuels will effectively sustain us very well until then.

I have no problem with Solar and wind power. I have two homes and have solar power on both of them, but the entire earth fitted out with windmills and solar panels will not satisfy our tremendous need for energy with any reliability. Harvesting the sun’s energy is a grand idea, perhaps many square miles of solar panels in space and the energy beamed back to earth would be nearly as economical as fusion plants but I don’t think so.

People should not speak in ignorance. What has happened to our society is that many people listen to a tiny fraction of science and make a decision of what is best for the world based on that. A tiny fraction of of information used to make a decision when much more information should be used is still ignorance.

Click to expand...

What will people do for food when much of Europe and North America is too cold to farm?

Green House farming? and import food from elsewhere.

Tomorrow is supposed to be our snow day. Woke up this morning to a heavy frost and 28 degrees...wasn't supposed to be that cold overnight. Thankfully we dripped faucets and fed livestock heavy. Heaven only knows what tomorrow will really be like!

Martinhouse, are you going to get this mess, too?

northern watch said:

What will people do for food when much of Europe and North America is too cold to farm?

Green House farming? and import food from elsewhere.

Click to expand...

As long as there is some sort of temperate Summer season, pasture, nut trees, and hardy fruits should still be viable.

I like greenhouses and hydroponics, but you need sunlight. New England has little enough as it is, and even for cold crops like cabbage, clear covers block out more sunlight with each insulating layer. LED grow lights have gotten very efficient, but none of this gets set up cheaply, so don't expect the cabbages to remain inexpensive either.

Cold can be worked around (at least until an area gets permanent glaciation). Areas that generally lack sunlight will have a bigger problem. My biggest concern is the politics added on top if this - they want us all dead, and that will be easier to accomplish as people attempt to adjust. Will regular people even be able to hang on to their land? Farming tends to be one of the first things Communists go after to destroy.

Fierce cyclone in North Pacific marks end of year of record weather events -- Earth Changes -- Sott.net

Fierce cyclone in North Pacific marks end of year of record weather events

Tamsin Green
The Guardian
Thu, 07 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC


© Nasa/AFP/Getty Images

Satellite image showing a storm over the Bering Sea moving towards Alaska.

Last year was a year of record-breaking weather events, ending with a bang of explosive cyclogenesis in the North Pacific on New Year's Eve.

The extratropical storm saw its central pressure fall to a record 921 millibars from 972 millibars in 24 hours, making it the strongest storm in that basin in at least 60 years, and also setting records for Alaska and the Bering Sea in its path onwards.

Meanwhile, a global record for the highest mean sea-level pressure was broken in Mongolia, central Asia, barely days before. A recording of 1094.3 millibars came hand-in-hand with bitingly low temperatures of -45.5C (-50F) in Tsetsen-Uul in the western Zavkha province.

This year, on the other hand, opened with a disruptive ice storm across the midwest and Great Lakes of the US. Ice storms, or freezing rain, occur as raindrops falling vertically through the atmosphere move into a thin layer of sub-freezing air near the earth's surface. This allows the droplets to become supercooled and freeze upon contact with any objects, creating extremely hazardous conditions such as ice coats the ground. In the southern hemisphere, the first storm of the season was birthed. Tropical Cyclone Imogen made landfall in the Shire of Carpentaria in Queensland, Australia, on Monday, with reports of over 260mm of rain falling in Karumba.

Intense cold wave hits Taiwan, rare snow in mountains that haven't seen any in years -- Earth Changes -- Sott.net

Intense cold wave hits Taiwan, rare snow in mountains that haven't seen any in years

RTI English
Fri, 08 Jan 2021 19:08 UTC


Snow falls on 6 mountains in Taiwan

An intense cold wave has hit Taiwan, bringing snow to high mountains, including some that haven't seen snowfall in years.

The cold weather has also brought thousands of motorists up into the mountains in search of rare wintry scenes.

They haven't been disappointed, but authorities are urging caution: people here are unused to driving in snow.

View: https://youtu.be/ed9ZSTQ5LWw

Run time is 1:09

TxGal, I'm not seeing anything about snow in my ten-day forecast, but I'll sure be watching it for change!

The weather in general that's happening all over the world really is making me think that growing might be over for most areas already.

I'm wondering if we might say this ice age really has started? Whether it's just a deep solar minimum or a full-blown biggie of an ice age, I don't know, and I doubt I'll live long enough to find out for sure. But right now, I'm going to keep on trying to grow what I can, and just wait and see if there will be a total summer melting of the horrendous amounts of snow falling in places all over the world. If the snow starts accumulating from not melting over the summer, I can only hope those of my family who still live in Minnesota and Iowa will try to move south while it's still possible. Or even allowed!

I don't especially care to be around if I can't stay warm. I'm already cold all the time now and I think the heating element of my little space heater is failing Or maybe the thermostat? It doesn't seem to want to produce anything but barely warmed air. And I need HOT, not just warm!

And I'd like to add my thanks to all who have been keeping so much posted for us on this thread. I haven't contributed lately even the poor way I used to, because my sleep patterns have changed and the new podcasts are usually already posted here by the time I discover them.

Martinhouse said:

TxGal, I'm not seeing anything about snow in my ten-day forecast, but I'll sure be watching it for change!

The weather in general that's happening all over the world really is making me think that growing might be over for most areas already.

I'm wondering if we might say this ice age really has started? Whether it's just a deep solar minimum or a full-blown biggie of an ice age, I don't know, and I doubt I'll live long enough to find out for sure. But right now, I'm going to keep on trying to grow what I can, and just wait and see if there will be a total summer melting of the horrendous amounts of snow falling in places all over the world. If the snow starts accumulating from not melting over the summer, I can only hope those of my family who still live in Minnesota and Iowa will try to move south while it's still possible. Or even allowed!

I don't especially care to be around if I can't stay warm. I'm already cold all the time now and I think the heating element of my little space heater is failing Or maybe the thermostat? It doesn't seem to want to produce anything but barely warmed air. And I need HOT, not just warm!

Click to expand...

Glad you're doing okay! I'm not sure what to make of the ever-changing weather reports from around the globe. Seems we're going down that road, but how far remains to be seen :-)

Not sure about your heater, could be either, I guess....I think the heating element is one prone to issues, but I'm not sure.

Now we're looking at potentially 8 inches of snow...don't much like that idea!

I can't stay warm well, either...literally I'm sitting in with two layers, a comfy pj layer and then sweats...and two pairs of socks. My new normal :-)

Up to 8 inches of snow possible as far south as Waco, Texas - Ice Age Now

Up to 8 inches of snow possible as far south as Waco, Texas
January 9, 2021 by Robert

Temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below normal in western Texas (because of global warming, I presume).


Projected snowfall areas for 10 Jan 2021

Widespread snowfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected from Albuquerque, New Mexico, to Monroe, Louisiana.

Higher accumulations are forecast between Roswell, New Mexico, through Waco, Texas, where up to 8 inches (20 cm) of snow is possible. Snow totals in the higher elevations of New Mexico could reach close to a foot (30 cm).

“Accumulations of snow will range from several inches over the eastern plains to near 10 inches atop the Sangre de Cristo Mountains,” the National Weather Service office in Albuquerque says.

Even northern Louisiana is expected to see some snow showers. Shreveport is forecast to pick up 2 inches through Monday.

This weekend, high temperatures will be at least 10 degrees below average across New Mexico, Texas and Louisiana. On Sunday, the western half of Texas will be looking at temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below normal.

Heavy, wet snow headed for the southern USz

Map source:
National Weather Service

We'll take some snow here in NM. Been very dry. We need it.

Winter storm watch for Texas as snow is forecast to spread towards the lower Mississippi valley tonight through Monday, then heads for the Southeast United States
By Marko Korosec | Global weather | 09 January 2021
Severe Weather Europe

2021 started with two consecutive winter storms across the eastern and part of the southern United States, now a new winter storm is scheduled to hit the deep South this weekend. A frontal system emerges over the southern Rockies, moving to Texas and then turning towards the Southeast US. Quite some snow with worsening driving conditions will develop from Texas through Louisiana and Mississippi until Monday.

Just a few days after two winter storm events hit the eastern and southern United States, there is now another one developing this weekend. A quite significant winter storm will travel from New Mexico east across Texas into Lower Mississippi Valley, bringing a lot of snow in parts of Texas. Winter weather with slippery and icy conditions will develop, with dangerous driving conditions expected.

A frontal system with a cold front is moving across the West Coast and will develop a new surface low-pressure system over New Mexico and the southern Rockies. It will drop down to the Rio Grande into the western Gulf of Mexico, beneath the amplifying upper-level trough diving southward through the Central and Southern Rockies into Sunday. Snow will spread across New Mexico and Texas from late Saturday through Sunday, some of which could be heavy at times.



A WINTER STORM WATCH has been issued for portions of western, central and eastern Texas. Rain will switch over to snow by Sunday morning. The higher elevations could see higher snow totals of 6 to 8 inches. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for the Panhandles and eastern New Mexico, as well as a WINTER STORM WARNING in parts of New Mexico. Travel could be very difficult as roads become slick and snow-packed.

Snow will fall over all of the areas beginning late Saturday through Sunday. This new system could produce 6-8 inches (15-20 cm) of snowfall over parts of the Southern Plains on Sunday. Locally close to 10 inches (25 cm) of fresh snow could accumulate. Heavy rains are possible late on Sunday along portions of the Texas coast as the low moves into the westernmost Gulf of Mexico. With some storms, including possibly becoming severe along the northwest Gulf Coast.


Winter storm across Texas to Mississippi Valley

According to the National Weather Service (NWS), a storm system should move into North and Central Texas Saturday night and exit the region Sunday night. Most of the area is expected to receive snowfall. The heaviest snow should remain to the south and west of Dallas-Fort Worth with widespread 1-3 inches of snow accumulation possible. Where heavy snow will develop, localized higher amounts are likely. Here is what we know about this new winter storm evolution so far:

UPPER WAVE DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES

A strong winter storm will track across Texas late Saturday and into Sunday. Widespread precipitation will form within this storm system, transitioning from rain to snow across much of the region on Sunday. While there remains some uncertainty on the exact snowfall amounts that can be expected, and where the heaviest snow amounts will occur, accumulating snowfall appears likely for portions of North and Central Texas beginning late Saturday night and continuing through the day Sunday.

The overall weather pattern across North America reveals an upper-level high across Canada and the northern United States, with a long-wave ejecting off the Mid Atlantic to the Atlantic. Further west, another upper wave is moving across the southern Rockies, amplifying while drifting southeast this Saturday. It will travel across New Mexico, emerging into Texas on Sunday into Sunday night. The general flow over the continent is supporting northerly air mass advection, therefore resulting in a lot of freezing fog across the United States.




We take a look at the 925 mbar temperature here, which is often best to represent the size and the intensity of the pools for cold or warm air masses. 925 mbar geopotential heights are roughly near 750 meters (or 2500 feet) above sea level, so it helps us to avoid the effect of potential complex topography beneath. The temperature chart this Saturday indicates that there is a broad area of below-freezing temperatures at this level, including deep south of the United States, from eastern Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast US.



As the surface pressure also begins falling over western Texas, it helps the warm air mass and moisture advection further north. Together with the new wave emerging over the southern Rocky mountains tonight, snowfall will gradually increase from eastern Colorado into New Mexico and the Panhandles. Heavy snow will develop with time, and a winter storm is forecast to gradually continue towards the southeast. So the snow is first to increase across eastern New Mexico, then also into Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle.

End of Part 1

Winter storm watch for Texas as snow is forecast to spread towards the lower Mississippi valley tonight through Monday, then heads for the Southeast United States (severe-weather.eu)

Part 2



A potent winter storm system will bring significant snowfall to the northern mountains late today, spreading over eastern New Mexico tonight through Sunday morning. Travel impacts are likely across most of eastern New Mexico. Some uncertainty remains regarding locally higher snow totals of 1 to 4 inches (3-10 cm) over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley tonight into early Sunday morning. It is indeed strongly depending on the frontal system’s trajectory where and how intense the snowfall will occur.



Significant snowfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches (15-30 cm) are possible over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains with 3 to 6 (7-15 cm) inches and locally as high as 6 to 9 inches (15-25 cm) over portions of the eastern plains. Snowfall will first begin to reach the northern mountains Saturday afternoon and will then expand over the eastern plains Saturday night into Sunday morning. The system finally exits into Texas by midday Sunday. Travel impacts from snow-packed roads and lowered visibility are likely through mountain passes and the interstate and highway corridors east of the central mountain chain to the Texas border.



End of Part 2

Part 3

WINTER STORM DEVELOPS EAST ACROSS TEXAS ON SUNDAY

As the wave moves into the southern Plains and Texas through Sunday morning, the temperatures also become lower over the region. Those will be favorably low to support snowfall with the increased precipitation. The main large cold pool will remain further east and northeast, across the north and the central United States. Near-surface temperatures over Texas are low on Saturday, as freezing fog has been reported. So although snow might be more wet than dry, it will be accumulating on the ground quite easily. Especially when intensity increases.



By Sunday morning, the wave progress will already bring an increase in precipitation into the west and central Texas. Heavy rain will develop across the deep South, but heavy snow and a rather significant winter storm further north. The heaviest snowfall will develop across western Texas and the southern Texas Panhandle in the morning hours, gradually spreading east during the late morning into afternoon hours. Where exactly the boundary with mixed precipitation (snow and rain) will be placed is hard to tell, but some good estimates can be judged from the chart below.



According to the National Weather Service in San Angelo, Texas, snowfall begins around sunrise on Sunday morning, continues east through the days. The highest accumulation, locally 3-6 inches (7-15 cm), are likely along the Interstate I-20 with less chances for any significant snow accumulations further south around San Angelo and west/east of it. Indeed mainly rain to heavy rain further south towards Sonora and Junction along the Interstate I-10.



Through the Sunday evening and night hours, precipitation continues to increase as the upper wave is deepening while traveling eastward across Texas. While snow to heavy across will spread into central Texas, a mixture of both rain and snow are likely further east. At least at the beginning of the precipitation until temperatures become lower. Snowfall will be losing its intensity further west as less moisture will be present. Very heavy rain will develop across southern Texas and along the Gulf Coast, with chances for severe storms along with the coastal areas.



According to the National Weather Service in Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas, the front edge of the winter storm will reach this part of Texas by late Sunday morning, increasing precipitation with time through the afternoon into evening hours. There is potentially up to around an inch of snow across northern Texas, and up to 3-4 inches (7-10 cm) further south of Interstate I-20. The highest amounts of snow seem likely to the south and west of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Bands of heavy snow will be likely with this event, so some areas could see some reasonable amount of snow as well.



End of Part 3

Part 4

According to the National Weather Service in Houston, Texas, the winter storm will develop measurable snow down south as to just north of the Houston area, roughly north of the line between Austin-Brenham-Conroe and further east. Although the amounts of fresh snow will not be significant at any level, the total snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches (3-10 cm) are possible with isolated higher amounts further north towards Crockett.



Here is now a general map of the total snowfall accumulation expected by the ECMWF weather model with this winter storm event. The highest amounts are expected across western and central Texas, locally 6-8 inches (15-20 cm) of snow will be possible. The other two areas will a reasonable amount of snow are over New Mexico and also across the Lower Mississippi Valley. These areas could see around 4-6 inches (10-15 cm) of snow, potentially some more, depending on where exactly the frontal system travels.



As the intensity and the amount of snow accumulation strongly depends on the position of the surface fronts and the wave trajectory, differences in the weather model predictions exist. The ECMWF model might be near the probable reality, we must not ignore the local, high-resolution models, e.g. NAM model. The latter hints even more than 12 inches (25+ cm) locally. Especially across central Texas while the ECMWF model predicts the highest amounts of snow further west.







We can see that most of the southern Plains will see at least some snow, obviously the highest amounts along with the core of the eastward-moving winter storm, from eastern New Mexico into western and central Texas, as well as further east into eastern Texas and northern Louisiana. Keep in mind the high-resolution model NAM could be a bit too optimistic, but chances are surely there and should not be ignored.

End of Part 4

Part 5

STORM MOVES ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY

The upper wave with the frontal system will continue east on Monday, bringing the winter storm across the Lower Mississippi Valley from the early morning hours onwards. Actually, this upper wave will be the only disturbance across the United States Lower-48 this coming week, as the rest of the country will be under above normal geopotential heights and surface pressure. The wave will, however, be gradually weakening and losing its strength while drifting east.



The eastward-moving upper wave will also result in lowering the temperatures in its wave, so colder air mass spreads across the freshly accumulated snow over Texas on Monday. The coldest temperatures remain further north across the central Mississippi Valley and the Midwest. Freezing temperatures could push into Deep South as well. We can also see that as the surface low advances east along the central Gulf Coast, the warm advection ahead of it brings warmer temperatures into portions of the Southeast United States.



One of the results of the warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico will surely be heavy rain with storms, possibly even severe storms, along the central Gulf Coast. Locally flooding could occur as well. Further north, a winter storm will continue east across northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas into north-central Mississippi through Monday morning. Heavy snow will spread across northern and possibly also Louisiana, depending on where the frontal boundary will travel.



Although the snow amounts might not be particularly extreme, snowfall this far south is rare enough that just a few inches of snow could cause significant travel problems. The highest amounts are likely across north-central Louisiana and west-central Mississippi, as the attached ECMWF model guidance suggests. 4-6 inches (10-15 cm) of snow can accumulate along this swath, with 1-3 inches (3-8 cm) of snow to the north and south. Up to central Arkansas and further east across Tennessee.




End of Part 5 of 5


Winter storm watch for Texas as snow is forecast to spread towards the lower Mississippi valley tonight through Monday, then heads for the Southeast United States (severe-weather.eu)

Rain has begun here, we're now in the heavy snow zone for the storm system. Oh just ick!

Madrid's heaviest snowfall in 50 years, red warnings also issued for Italy & Croatia as even more snow is forecast -- Earth Changes -- Sott.net

Madrid's heaviest snowfall in 50 years, red warnings also issued for Italy & Croatia as even more snow is forecast

France 24
Sat, 09 Jan 2021 13:25 UTC


© GETTY IMAGES
The capital Madrid has seen the heaviest snowfall in decades

Four people died in Spain as Storm Filomena caused travel chaos across the country, blanketing Madrid in the heaviest snowfall in decades and forcing authorities to mobilise troops to rescue trapped motorists.

Rescue services reached 1,500 people trapped in cars, while skiers glided down Gran Via, normally one of the busiest streets in the capital. Other Madrid residents used the freak blizzard to snowboard down the road or pelt each other with snowballs.

A man and woman who were traveling in a car drowned after a river burst its banks near Malaga, southern Spain, and two homeless people froze to death, one in Madrid and the other in the eastern city of Calatayud, authorities said.

Responding to the events, King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia tweeted: "The royal family would like to express their sorrow for victims of the storm ... and ask for extreme caution against the risks of accumulation of ice and snow."

Interior minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska urged Spaniards to avoid all but essential travel. "We are facing the most intense storm in the last 50 years," he said.

View: https://youtu.be/hUAkkuYi-qM

Run time is 8:27

View: https://youtu.be/tw7bhhuuTx0

Run time is 1:44

More than 650 roads were blocked by snow, said Grande-Marlaska, leaving some drivers stuck in their cars from Friday night until Saturday.

Patricia Manzanares, trapped in her car on the M-40 motorway in Madrid since 7 p.m. on Friday, told RTVE television: "I have been stuck here without water or any other help".

Aena, which controls the country's airports, said Madrid's Barajas airport, which was closed on Friday night, would remain shut for the rest of Saturday. It said at least 50 flights to Madrid, Malaga, Tenerife and Ceuta, a Spanish territory in North Africa, were canceled.

View: https://twitter.com/fifimadrid/status/1347876036650934274

Run time is 0:17

The State Meteorological Agency said it was the heaviest snowfall in Madrid since 1971, while José Miguel Viñas, a meteorologist from Spanish National Radio, said that between 25 cm and 50 cm (10-20 inches) had fallen in the capital, which he said made it the largest snowfall since 1963.

Atletico Madrid's game against Athletic Bilbao, scheduled to kick off at 1515 GMT on Saturday, was postponed, La Liga said in a statement.

Reuters

Comment: Express reports:

There will be an 80 percent chance of snow across most non-coastal locations.

© AEMET
Storm Filomena: Red warnings, which mean extreme risk, are in place across Aragon, Castilla-La Mancha, Cataluna, Commundidad de Madrid and Communitat Valencia
Red warnings, which mean extreme risk, are in place across Aragon, Castilla-La Mancha, Cataluna, Comunidad de Madrid and Communitat Valencia today.

The warnings caution there is a 40 to 70 percent chance of snowstorms up to 20cm (7.8 inches).

Orange warnings for snow are in place across Cantabria, Castilla y Leon, Extremadura, Cimmunidad Foral de Navarra, Pais Vasco and La Rioja.

These warnings are classed as 'important risk' and caution up to 30 centimetres of snow could fall in 24 hours.

Madrid Mayor José Luis Martínez Almeida said the city is prepared for the 20 centimeters of snow which have been forecast, but admitted it will create "great difficulties."

Municipal workers have spread more than 350,000 kilograms of salt and 75,000 litres of salt brine on roads to prevent them from icing over.

Pictures show snow-laden roads blocked with cars and some residents even resorted to travelling using skis.

Firefighters helped to free those trapped in cars on Friday as temperatures plummeted to -12C.


© WXCHARTS
Storm Filomena: Another 20 to 30cm of snow is forecast to fall today
Snow has already blanketed parts of northern Italy this week, but yet more could be on the way from Storm Filomena.

Ms Willets said: "It is going to spread to Italy and Balkans, with very significant snow to come for the Balkans.

"Madrid will face 20cm of more snow today. It is almost unheard of weather."

Troops from the Unit for Military Emergencies have helped to clear roads and infrastructure across the country, the defence ministry said.

Castilla-La Mancha, one of the three regions put on high alert along with Madrid and eastern Valencia, closed schools.

Storm Filomena was named by Spanish Weather Service, AEMet and is made up of two areas of low pressure which are following each other across southwestern Europe.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys explained this storm is so unusual as it is a combination of different weather features not seen since Storm Emma and the Beast from the East in 2018.

Mr Roys said: "A southerly storm track due to high pressure in the east-central Atlantic, the stalled [storm system] over central Europe and cold air that has funnelled in from Scandinavia and northern Russia are the features creating this uncommon setup."

"With little to no break in precipitation, the second area of low pressure will rush over the Iberian Peninsula from Friday through Saturday night, causing precipitation to continue across southern and central areas, as well as expand into the Ebro River Valley and finally into the Northern Meseta by Friday night."

Click to expand...

The ice age cometh? A few days ago Spain recorded its lowest temperature ever at -34C.

David DuByne of Adapt 2030 has a new podcast out...it's a little off topic for here and the GSM, but given that we often focus on food and other items due to the GSM it may be okay (especially since things are a little weird right now). If anyone thinks it's too far off for this thread, just post your thoughts and I can remove it.

Swift Change Preps (Seven Days) - YouTube

Swift Change Preps (Seven Days)
10,502 views • Jan 9, 2021

View: https://youtu.be/_eFCoxkba8A
Run time is 9:02

Synopsis provided:

Some ideas for easy to find items in supermarkets to sprout and grow microgreens and in the next seven days from Jan 10-17 food prices will begin to spike. Do you know where your local fresh water springs are? Where your local bulk seed supplier is? Food changes are coming, NOW.

TxGal, still no rain or snow in my whole ten-day forecast here in NW central Arkansas. The radar map makes it look like your system might just pass south of me. It will be chilly, but at least there will mostly be sun.

If I'd still had doubts about what a GSM can do to our climate, such a big extra wintry system passing SOUTH of me here would probably erase the last of them!

Martinhouse said:

TxGal, still no rain or snow in my whole ten-day forecast here in NW central Arkansas. The radar map makes it look like your system might just pass south of me. It will be chilly, but at least there will mostly be sun.

If I'd still had doubts about what a GSM can do to our climate, such a big extra wintry system passing SOUTH of me here would probably erase the last of them!

Click to expand...

I am surprised you're not forecasted to get it, but that's a good thing!

It will be interesting to see if we really get the 8" forecasted...not looking forward to it!

I just saw that DuByne has just posted what he said was his last post on his Twitter page. He mentioned this in this last video, didn't he? Yikes!

I sure hope IAF doesn't do the same thing, but I fear he won't have any choice before long.

Dubyne definitely sounded more... grim in this one than normal. He said that he's basically done with Twitter and Instagram - he won't be posting anything new to those sites, but will not delete his accounts so nobody can claim the name. He's going to use more of the social media sites that allow freedom of speech.


But at the end of the video did you all catch what he said ??

"But I would say, Get ready in a quick fashion, like now! These next 7 days, food is gonna be, well... disrupted, or some thing with food, at doubling in price (sic)... That was the message I was given. So you are gonna want to take care, if you've watched to this point in the video, that's the little nugget that I wanted to drop to the end. Seven days or less for something with food."

We are getting the cold cold here in central Louisiana, snow flurries predicted later today and night. Its a fine time for the blower motor to go out on our furnace, a new one is on order. But we have a good wood stove, several space heaters, generators and fuel for them, both kinds.

I've had to add a second layer of clothes today and looks like another pair of socks is in my near future or maybe just put on a pair of boots instead of my flip flops. Stay safe everyone.

God is good all the time

Judy

The capital of Spain, Madrid, experienced the heaviest snowfall in 80 years on January 9, 2021. Due to the large amount of rainfall, the city was practically completely paralyzed.

2:27 min - Jan 10, 2021
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjKDpLE9PXw

Burgos, Spain
Snowy mountains here in Spain, took this on the bus back home

Here is another "vortex split" article


Wandering polar vortex may cause a wild, snowy winter
By Laura Geggel a day ago
Snowier, colder weather may be heading to the Eastern U.S.

A model showing of warm (red) air may impact the cold (blue) polar vortex that swirls over the North Pole.
(Image: © Atmospheric and Environmental Research)
High above the North Pole, the polar vortex, a fast-spinning whirl of frigid air, is doing a weird shimmy that may soon bring cold and snowy weather to the Eastern U.S., Northern Europe and East Asia for weeks on end, meteorologists say.

While it's not unusual for the polar vortex to act up, this particular reconfiguration — wandering around and possibly splitting in two — may be tied to climate change in the rapidly warming Arctic, said Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research in Massachusetts, part of Verisk Analytics, a risk-assessment company.
"Expect a more wintery back-half of winter here in the Eastern U.S. than what we had in the first half," Cohen told Live Science.

Related: The reality of climate change: 10 myths busted
Click here for more Space.com videos...

CLOSE







Arctic Sea Ice Hits Record Low - Again! | Video


Volume 0%




PLAY SOUND

The Arctic is heating up faster than any other region in the world. As a result, sea-ice cover there is shrinking — in September 2020 and December 2020, the Arctic sea-ice cover shrunk to its second-lowest and third-lowest minimum on record for those months, respectively, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

The warmer-than-usual temperatures in the Arctic are likely throwing the polar vortex out of whack, Cohen said. The polar vortex is a vast area of low pressure that sits high above the Arctic in the stratosphere — the layer above the troposphere, the lowest layer of Earth's atmosphere where most weather conditions happen. This low-pressure system is usually filled with cold, swirling air. During the winter, a jet stream of air that keeps the polar vortex in place sometimes weakens, allowing the vortex's chilly air to extend southward.
Here's an animated video Cohen made illustrating the process.


Cohen and colleagues have suggested that less Arctic sea-ice cover means there's more moisture from the sea migrating inland over normally dry Siberia. This moisture then turns into snow, which reflects heat back into space and is making Siberia colder than normal; that in turn disrupts a thermal band in the troposphere extending over Eurasia. This discombobulated band can then destabilize the polar vortex, causing colder winters east of the Rockies in the U.S. and in Northern Europe and East Asia, Cohen and his colleagues wrote in a 2019 review in the journal Nature Climate Change.

"Think of the polar vortex like a quiet, fast spinning top that spins in place," Cohen said. "Then, you have this energy [from the troposphere] that starts banging" on the spinning polar vortex, making it wobble and wander.
He added that this season, "snowfall across Siberia has been above normal so far. Therefore, I do believe it has contributed to the weak polar vortex."

(Image credit: NOAA)
Not everyone agrees with this increased-Siberian-snow-and-wobbly-polar-vortex connection, but it is clear that a weakened polar vortex leads to colder winters in certain parts of the Northern Hemisphere. It's also accepted that so-called sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events can weaken the polar vortex and make it teeter around. SSWs happen when large-scale atmospheric waves associated with weather systems reach into the stratosphere and disrupt the polar vortex, causing it to slow down and heat up as much as 90 degrees Fahrenheit (50 degrees Celsius) within a few days.

Cohen noted that SSWs can be triggered by weather conditions associated with the Arctic's disappearing sea ice. SSWs happen an average of six times every 10 years, and right now we're experiencing a big SSW, The Washington Post reported.
It's possible the SSW was caused by a high-pressure, low-pressure system, said Amy Butler, a research scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Chemical Sciences Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado.

"Over the last few weeks, there was a persistent high-pressure system over much of the North Atlantic and northern Europe/Asia, and a low-pressure system over the North Pacific," Butler told Live Science in an email. This high-pressure, low-pressure duo is known to disrupt the stratosphere, where the polar vortex lives.
It's also possible that the extreme bomb cyclone (a rapidly-forming winter storm with hurricane-strength winds) in the North Pacific a few days ago, contributed to the SSW, "but that will have to be investigated further," she said.

Related: Images of melt: Earth's vanishing ice caps
On Jan. 5, the polar vortex's counter-clockwise winds reversed direction (a clue that a sudden atmospheric warming event had happened) and the vortex wandered from its usual location centered over the North Pole, toward Europe and the North Atlantic, Butler said. During that time, it began to (but didn't completely) split, Cohen said.

The polar vortex might split further in about 10 days, "but it's unclear if this will happen," Butler said. "Forecast models struggle with predicting a splitting of the vortex more than a week in advance."
RELATED CONTENT
—On ice: Stunning images of Canadian Arctic
—The 10 worst blizzards in US history
—Image gallery: Life at the North Pole
Disruptions to the polar vortex are key for forecasts, as about two weeks after they happen, the troposphere gets a wallop of weird weather, which can last for weeks. Because of this week's polar vortex disruption, "there's indications we'll see some colder weather within two weeks … in the Eastern U.S., Northern Europe and East Asia," Cohen said.

For now, it's up in the air whether that means snowstorms or a rash of cold air, he said.
Meanwhile, "warmer-than-normal conditions can also occur over the Canadian Arctic and subtropical Asia and Africa," Butler said. "These effects could potentially persist for 4-6 weeks after the sudden stratospheric warming."
Originally published on Live Science.

I check Ice Age Farmer's Twitter page a few times a day to see if he has put up any new videos. I checked just now and saw that his account has been suspended. Can't remember what he'd posted just previously, but apparently someone didn't care for it.

The Adapt 2030 guy did not get suspended or banned, but a couple days ago he stopped posting there before it could happen to him.

I'll miss the information I got from both of these pages.

Ice Age Farmer just posted what he says could possibly be his final YouTube video.

it runs 11:22 minutes and he talks about food scarcity and food control all over the world and also about what has been happening on lots of information platforms like Twitter.

Thanks, everyone, for keeping the thread going! We got a solid 8" of snow that first knocked off our internet satellite and tv, and finally our power. Just getting back online now, and have lots to catch up on. I'll get back to posting hopefully tomorrow, when we'll likely know if we have any frozen pipes. Ugh!!

Last big snow we had here was in 2010 and it was a whopping 4" on grassy surfaces only, and it melted at the end of the day. This snowstorm was darn near like a nor'easter back in VA.

TxGal, welcome back! I pretty much figured why you were MIA after I saw that awful big green, pink and blue blob across lower Texas on the radar map!

If you can't get to this thread for another day or so, we'll understand. You may want to catch up on the many important threads in the BS forum. In fact, Dennis practically ordered, DEMANDED, that we all do so in a thread on the main page, which itself has kept growing as a somewhat related thread. The situation even got several new members qualified and granted BS access!

Glad you're okay and I hope all your livestock is, too, and that you don't find any frozen pipes.

Martinhouse said:

TxGal, welcome back! I pretty much figured why you were MIA after I saw that awful big green, pink and blue blob across lower Texas on the radar map!

If you can't get to this thread for another day or so, we'll understand. You may want to catch up on the many important threads in the BS forum. In fact, Dennis practically ordered, DEMANDED, that we all do so in a thread on the main page, which itself has kept growing as a somewhat related thread. The situation even got several new members qualified and granted BS access!

Glad you're okay and I hope all your livestock is, too, and that you don't find any frozen pipes.

Click to expand...

Thanks, Martinhouse!! Having several cups of much needed coffee now, just made a pot to but into the thermos just in case power goes out again. Hearing lots of trees/limbs down over power lines was the cause of our outage, not a big surprise.

I thought for sure we'd wake up to at least one dead cow (older), but they all made it through. We have some round bales out, but have been putting squares out to spread all the ladies out some. Problem was the snow was falling so hard it would cover the square pieces (leaves) up within minutes. Now begins the season of the mud. I just kept the chickens locked inside their house/enclosed run yesterday during the snow...today they got a little more room with a kennel attached, but that's it. Snow took down the big covered run we had set up. I'll move it much later in the week :-)

Yep, I'm trying to catch up! When I opened the Martial Law thread, I was 9 pages behind...good grief! Then there is the BS...oh my. I'd like to have a few days to get to the grocery store, what little we had in the fridge I'll be tossing out. Fortunately all the freezers held nicely. I'm sure we'll need more hay, too.

It will be so nice to see the sun!!

ETA: We no longer breed cattle, but when we did we tried for late spring calving. Unfortunately, in the last week we saw a lot of new calves on ranches between us and College Station, so likely more were born right before/during the storm. This was a rare event for our location, I'm afraid a lot of new calves likely didn't make it through the storm. It wasn't a powder snow, it was a wet/heavy snow...great for snowmen and snowball fights, but dreadful for newborn calves to navigate. It was exhausting for US to walk through!

TxGal, when you said leaves in relation to the square bales, did you mean the layers that pull apart from the bale after the twine is cut? I've only ever seen them referred to as flakes. To me, one makes as little sense as the other. Why not just call them layers or sections? (: (: (:

Oh, well. What do I know? (:

I'd love to be able to mulch some of my garden stuff with straw like I used to, but I seem to have developed a real allergy to it. I loved how big clumps of wheat would grow up through the mulch from the seed heads that harvesting has missed. I'd cut handfuls of it even in the winter for the rabbits and they loved it! So did the chickens. Don't know if it was Summerthyme who told me or if I just read it somewhere else, but I found that one could take three cuttings of the grass and it could still produce its seed heads.

I thought it was so strange that we didn't get any snow in my part of Arkansas but it fell south of us. Even some in the bigger town where I went "big shopping" before all this Covid stuff started. So it missed me right here at home by about ten or twelve miles as the crow flies, Skimmed right past me to the south!

Natgas Prices In Asia And Europe Sky-Rocket Amid Deep Freeze

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
TUESDAY, JAN 12, 2021 - 2:45

The price of LNG reached unprecedented lows in the spring of 2020; but, as OilPrice's Venand Meliksetian points out, a year later, the revitalization of the market is a fact. Prices of the supercooled fuel in especially Asia have reached astronomic heights due to a combination of factors. The most important LNG buyers-markets are in Asia and Europe. The latter, however, also enjoys a well-developed crossborder pipeline infrastructure that connects producers in Russia, North-Africa, and the Caspian to consumers. Asia, on the other hand, is much more dependent on LNG. Therefore, the top three largest importers are all Asian: Japan, China, and South-Korea.

The rise in LNG prices has several explanations.

First, economic activities have remained relatively strong in Asia throughout the year. China was the first country to experience a lockdown in February 2020 due to the spread of the Coronavirus. Other East Asian countries also implemented rapid and aggressive measures to mitigate the health crisis. The economy experienced a rebound while most countries were still grappling with the pandemic. Demand for commodities such as LNG, therefore, has remained strong.




More important, however, is the cold winter weather. BAMWX meteorologist Kirk Hinz first alerted us about a massive spike in temperatures happening miles above the North Pole, resulting in a sudden stratospheric warming event (SSWE) splitting the polar vortex into two. This means Arctic temperatures are pouring into parts of Asia and Europe, at the moment, sending natural gas prices in those regions sky-high.



Bloomberg's Javier Blas tweeted Monday that "LNG Asian benchmark JKM has jumped to a fresh all-time high of $28.2 per million British thermal units, up 32% from Friday" due to increased power demand because of the cold weather in the region.



Last week, China's power demand surged as Arctic air blanketed parts of the country, sending power demand to record highs.




While prices have soared in Asia, Europe is also feeling the pinch despite its cross-border pipeline infrastructure. Cold winter weather in general and Covid-19 have increased consumption as people remain inside. The high prices in Asia have echoed through Europe where the gas benchmark hit a two-year high.



On Monday, British wholesale gas prices surged to their highest levels since December 2018, or about a two-year high, due to colder weather.



Forecast temperature deviations for Europe show much of the continent will continue experiencing colder than average temperatures for the month.



However, as Meliksetian notes, it is uncertain whether prices will remain high in the long term. Although the beginning of the end of the pandemic is in reach due to the arrival of vaccines, long-term economic predictions remain bleak. It could take years before the economy and demand for LNG are what they were before the pandemic.

Russia's export to Europe, for example, hovered around 200 bcm for the last couple of years. For 2021, however, the expectation is that ‘just’ 170 bcm will be exported with an increase to 183 bcm in 2022. This shows the dire state of the market in at least Europe in the short to medium term.

The room for growth in Asian markets makes these countries even more important for LNG exporters. China already is on the brink of unseating Japan as the world's largest importer. The expanding market is not limited to East Asia. Countries in the south, such as India and Pakistan, are also gaining importance. The LNG market, however, remains highly volatile especially as the economic consequences of the pandemic are not yet fully understood.

And that surging cost could be coming home soon, as BAMWX's Hinz has pointed out, high impact cold and storminess across the eastern US and Canada is next?

Natgas Prices In Asia And Europe Sky-Rocket Amid Deep Freeze | ZeroHedge

Why Asian LNG Prices Are Going Through The Roof
By Vanand Meliksetian - Jan 11, 2021, 12:00 PM CST
Oilprice

The year 2020 is already unforgettable in many ways. The Covid-19 pandemic brought the world to a standstill. With the economy on hold, energy consumption has plummeted including demand for LNG. The price of the supercooled fuel reached unprecedented lows in the spring of 2020. Within a year, however, the revitalization of the market is a fact. Prices in especially Asia have reached astronomic heights due to a combination of factors. The most important LNG buyers-markets are in Asia and Europe. The latter, however, also enjoys a well-developed crossborder pipeline infrastructure that connects producers in Russia, North-Africa, and the Caspian to consumers. Asia, on the other hand, is much more dependent on LNG. Therefore, the top three largest importers are all Asian: Japan, China, and South-Korea.

The rise in LNG prices has several explanations. First, economic activities have remained relatively strong in Asia throughout the year. China was the first country to experience a lockdown in February 2020 due to the spread of the Coronavirus.

Other East Asian countries also implemented rapid and aggressive measures to mitigate the health crisis. The economy experienced a rebound while most countries were still grappling with the pandemic. Demand for commodities such as LNG, therefore, has remained strong.

More important, however, is the cold winter weather that has hit East Asia. China currently is facing a cold spell not seen since 1966. Utilities in Japan and South Korea face similar issues as inventories are drained at record speeds and demand is skyrocketing.

Asia’s LNG benchmark, the Japan-Korea Marker, rose to $21,45 on Friday which is the highest since S&P Global Platts started registering in 2009. According to Richard Holtum, global head of LNG and gas at Trafigura Group, “LNG prices have had a roller coaster year. This is evidence of the increased seasonality and volatility for the fuel increasingly used together with renewables.”




Related: India Oil Demand Falls For First Time In 20 Years Due To COVID

Another factor that has exacerbated the situation as prices have soared sevenfold, is driven by production losses. Major producers in Australia, Malaysia, Norway, and Qatar are facing challenges in maintaining capacity that has driven up prices even further.

According to Chong Zhi Xin, a director at consultancy IHS Market, “buyers with no alternatives are now paying top-dollar for prompt cargoes in January.” The market has become extremely tight in the short term.

The perfect storm hitting LNG markets is also exacerbated by problems in the shipping market. Over the past few weeks, the shipping rates have risen between 15 and 35 percent to more than $150,000 a day. It is a simple supply-demand equation where the remarkable rise in prices has reduced the availability of ships.

While prices have soared in Asia, Europe is also feeling the pinch despite its cross-border pipeline infrastructure. Cold winter weather in general and Covid-19 have increased consumption as people remain inside. The high prices in Asia have echoed through Europe where the gas benchmark hit a two-year high.

However, it is uncertain whether prices will remain high in the long term. Although the beginning of the end of the pandemic is in reach due to the arrival of vaccines, long-term economic predictions remain bleak. It could take years before the economy and demand for LNG are what they were before the pandemic.

Russia's export to Europe, for example, hovered around 200 bcm for the last couple of years. For 2021, however, the expectation is that ‘just’ 170 bcm will be exported with an increase to 183 bcm in 2022. This shows the dire state of the market in at least Europe in the short to medium term.

The room for growth in Asian markets makes these countries even more important for LNG exporters. China already is on the brink of unseating Japan as the world's largest importer. The expanding market is not limited to East Asia. Countries in the south, such as India and Pakistan, are also gaining importance. The LNG market, however, remains highly volatile especially as the economic consequences of the pandemic are not yet fully understood.

By Vanand Meliksetian for Oilprice.com

Why Asian LNG Prices Are Going Through The Roof | OilPrice.com

Martinhouse said:

I check Ice Age Farmer's Twitter page a few times a day to see if he has put up any new videos. I checked just now and saw that his account has been suspended. Can't remember what he'd posted just previously, but apparently someone didn't care for it.

The Adapt 2030 guy did not get suspended or banned, but a couple days ago he stopped posting there before it could happen to him.

I'll miss the information I got from both of these pages.

Click to expand...

Yes, information sources are drying up