DISASTER China's Three Gorge Dam in Danger

ShadowMan

Designated Grumpy Old Fart
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LawPoet

Contributing Member
Shadowman above: "We have done so much..."

I saw my first iteration of this on a glass window inside the Ventura Country Court Clerk's Office in 1976. It was a little longer, and I believe the additions have merit here for the Chinese:

"We, the unwilling, led by the unqualified, have accomplished so much with so little that we now attempt the impossible with nothing."

AND THAT'S THE GIST/KERNEL/ESSENCE/KEY TO THE 3GD CRISIS: "They got nothing".

It's out of their hands. Let the Waters Flow.
 

Cascadians

Leska Emerald Adams
Three Gorges Dam -- the current Live-stream:

7-27-2020 (Part 3) - https://invidio.us/3AreBci8Az0

recent streams #ThreeGorgesDam

7-27-2020 (Part 2) - 【現場直播】07.27 長江三峽大壩水情最新畫面| Part 2
7-27-2020 (Part 1) - https://invidio.us/oXsKRLgKlA0
7-26-2020 (Part 2) - https://invidio.us/5OwXjla5Hvc
7-26-2020 (Part 1) - https://invidio.us/dOOspjbJ4uM
7-25-2020 (Part 3) - https://invidio.us/XuSQ5dp29o8
7-25-2020 (Part 2) - https://invidio.us/uaVwanT6gTE
7-25-2020 (Part 1) - https://invidio.us/SrqVY0mgOX4
 

Squid

Veteran Member
There is a possibility that no one has discussed yet. Suppose the dam doesn't collapse, but is internally damaged and otherwise compromised? There could be structural cracks in the concrete, turbine damage and other damage that could compromise operation. IOW I don't necessarily see this an an either-or equation, but one of degree.

Apparently the crop damage China has already sustained is horrendous. They also have (other) massive economic damage from the flooding, aside from crop losses. Severe damage to the dam - short of collapse - would doubtlessly strain their economy further.

Best
Doc
“no one has discussed yet”

I am truly weeping you don’t read my posts.

Yes its understandable (you can check with the spellin Nazi I rarely read them myself) but I will cry myself to sleep in despair...
:eye:
 

DragonBurrow

Contributing Member
I just had the thought that this actually can be an ever big mess after reading the thread this morning. Say the dam holds through this flooding etc then just as the waters recede a bit and everyone has let their guard down when it fails. People that were evacuated are back home, vigilance is lower due to success and exhaustion, and it goes south quickly as they are congratulating themselves. Ugly picture.
 

Warm Wisconsin

Easy as 3.141592653589..
The flow from Cuntun into the three gorges basin is already slowing. That is about 18 hours ahead of schedule. This means the level at 3G shouldn’t exceed 171 meters even if they don’t allow additional outflow. Even if there is another storm Wednesday till Saturday it would be till at least next Monday before that water arrived at 3G. Hopefully this will allow them to release more water without flooding Wuhan and other cities.
 

cowboy

Veteran Member
What you call pipes are probably the channels for the cables that raise/lower the gates. Look at the size of the water channels going left to right. Anything with a significantly smaller diameter isn't going to be for water flow, but for controls/sensors/cables.

You may be right but if the view is to scale them pipes are no less than 15' dia
 

bw

Fringe Ranger
You may be right but if the view is to scale them pipes are no less than 15' dia

It's a schematic view, not scale. Even so, look at the rolling cranes on top of the structure. They have hoisting rigs hanging at the ends of their cables, and those hoisting rigs have to drop down to engage the flood gates. Those are not small structures. So 15' is certainly within reason, and it's probably oblong, not round.

ETA: Look at the overhead view in the following post. The black slots on the top of the dam are probably the access ports where the lifting rig drops down to attach to gates.
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city


Checked the page---are there only the graphs? And links to the live streams? (which of course is the front of the dam)

I didn't see anything linking to a PICTURE of the back of the dam, showing the water level visually--unless it's hidden under one of the links---but then I did find one, HIDDEN, in the Q & A section (he probably HAS to hide it, or the CCP would take it down-see below).

I DID, however, find THIS, in regard to the DATA shown on that page, in their Q & A section:

Q: Should I trust the official numbers?
A: LOL NO. But trend lines are potentially indicative and it is important to archive the official data for posterity.


The "LOL NO" is a link, that goes to the below:
View: https://twitter.com/public_juan/status/1285062542407028737


(Image on left is from July 20)


1595877110142.png
 

Warm Wisconsin

Easy as 3.141592653589..
I might be the least trusting of the CCP on this board. I lost HUGE money when they stole my robotic lawnmower technology.

However, the base of the “island” is at 140 meters. So if you scale/estimate that it would appear the lake is right around 162 meters.307EF014-5C94-491D-8FAC-D777797931F8.jpeg

Checked the page---are there only the graphs? And links to the live streams? (which of course is the front of the dam)

I didn't see anything linking to a PICTURE of the back of the dam, showing the water level visually--unless it's hidden under one of the links---but then I did find one, HIDDEN, in the Q & A section (he probably HAS to hide it, or the CCP would take it down-see below).

I DID, however, find THIS, in regard to the DATA shown on that page, in their Q & A section:

Q: Should I trust the official numbers?
A: LOL NO. But trend lines are potentially indicative and it is important to archive the official data for posterity.


The "LOL NO" is a link, that goes to the below:
View: https://twitter.com/public_juan/status/1285062542407028737


(Image on left is from July 20)


View attachment 211080
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
I gather that if the dam actually has cavitated it may not matter that the dam isn't quite as high as the projected flood level, although if it gets to tip over the point that means things are even worse.

But once the cavitation starts, the dam is essentially coming apart, and fixing it will be extremely difficult (and probably require diverting the river when it goes down) and even that might not work.

It is hard to tell and I have zero engineering skills but this is kind of what I'm picking up from the reading some friends sent me and what I could understand of the explanations.

When I showed my engineer housemate the dam and mentioned the word "cavitated" she turned kind of white and wouldn't say much.

Like some of the other engineers here, when things get to a certain point, she isn't even going to guess without real-time full information (which we don't have) but her face kind of spoke for her.
 

bw

Fringe Ranger
But once the cavitation starts, the dam is essentially coming apart, and fixing it will be extremely difficult (and probably require diverting the river when it goes down) and even that might not work.

Probably require a cofferdam covering the spillway area, with water diverted through the turbines. It would be a big job.
 

Warm Wisconsin

Easy as 3.141592653589..
It's a schematic view, not scale. Even so, look at the rolling cranes on top of the structure. They have hoisting rigs hanging at the ends of their cables, and those hoisting rigs have to drop down to engage the flood gates. Those are not small structures. So 15' is certainly within reason, and it's probably oblong, not round.

ETA: Look at the overhead view in the following post. The black slots on the top of the dam are probably the access ports where the lifting rig drops down to attach to gates.


Lets take a look at the dam. It has three main sections - The spillway in the middle and a power plant on the right and the left of the spillway.
IMG_0056.jpg

The spillway looks like this
IMG_0057.jpg

The spillway has a diversion bottom outlet (the only things open right now) They try to run these the most to prevent silt buildup behind the dam - Then above the bottom outlet is the deep outlet. These are only to be used during 100 year flood events. This is the gates that experienced some cavatiation (per the CCP) and they closed them quickly. They have been used for the first time this year. - The crest outlets are at 178 meters (i believe) and are to prevent overtopping in the 1000 year flood situation. They have never been tested. I have posted the cut away views of the spillway in the past few days.
IMG_0054.jpg

The power plants cut away views look like this. They are visiable in the "live camera view" on either side of the spillway.

IMG_0058.jpg

You can see that they have tried to control the flood crest at 175 meters in years past.

IMG_0055.jpg
 

Squid

Veteran Member
The flow from Cuntun into the three gorges basin is already slowing. That is about 18 hours ahead of schedule. This means the level at 3G shouldn’t exceed 171 meters even if they don’t allow additional outflow. Even if there is another storm Wednesday till Saturday it would be till at least next Monday before that water arrived at 3G. Hopefully this will allow them to release more water without flooding Wuhan and other cities.
Part of this equation is exactly how far away from the dam the storms develop, and the breadth of the storm.

Worse case the storm elongates lengthwise to create a continuous fill that would not end until the flow from the western side beginning completes its path to the 3GD.

Best case the projected storm is a rain nothing burger.
 

Warm Wisconsin

Easy as 3.141592653589..
Here is a different chart of similar data that I posted a few posts ago. However it is in a different format that I think is easier to read. It’s previous flood levels at 3GD

4BF2E7C7-60D7-49E5-B0FB-D3A264A60BD5.jpeg
 

Grouchy Granny

Deceased
Lets take a look at the dam. It has three main sections - The spillway in the middle and a power plant on the right and the left of the spillway.
View attachment 211093

The spillway looks like this
View attachment 211096

The spillway has a diversion bottom outlet (the only things open right now) They try to run these the most to prevent silt buildup behind the dam - Then above the bottom outlet is the deep outlet. These are only to be used during 100 year flood events. This is the gates that experienced some cavatiation (per the CCP) and they closed them quickly. They have been used for the first time this year. - The crest outlets are at 178 meters (i believe) and are to prevent overtopping in the 1000 year flood situation. They have never been tested. I have posted the cut away views of the spillway in the past few days.
View attachment 211097

The power plants cut away views look like this. They are visiable in the "live camera view" on either side of the spillway.

View attachment 211099

You can see that they have tried to control the flood crest at 175 meters in years past.

View attachment 211098

So where are the trash racks? You have to believe that they are loaded with debris by now on the intakes to the turbines. Those are going to be a total mother to clean. They could also be impeding the flow of water to the turbines if they are clogged (remembering some hydro experts I used to work with/for talking) - no expert here, but ...... which will also reduce the amount of water to run through the turbines to generate power.
 

Troke

On TB every waking moment
So where are the trash racks? You have to believe that they are loaded with debris by now on the intakes to the turbines. Those are going to be a total mother to clean. They could also be impeding the flow of water to the turbines if they are clogged (remembering some hydro experts I used to work with/for talking) - no expert here, but ...... which will also reduce the amount of water to run through the turbines to generate power.
Interesting point. I had kind of wondered about that myself.
 

Warm Wisconsin

Easy as 3.141592653589..
Interesting point. I had kind of wondered about that myself.

Well the river acts like a giant settling pond for the debris itself. Many many milesof low velocity waters before the dam. However, they do have an extensive barge and net system to catch trash. I will see if I can find the diagrams in my files
 

Lindy

Veteran Member

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Monday, July 27, 2020
Editions Global Edition China Edition Africa Edition Europe Edition Asia & Pacific عربي Chinese(GB) Chinese(Big5) Français 日本語 русский Español 한국어 Deutsch Português North America

Floodwater discharged from Three Gorges Dam in Hubei
Source: Xinhua| 2020-07-27 21:56:49|Editor: huaxia

#CHINA-HUBEI-YANGTZE RIVER-THREE GORGES DAM-FLOODWATER-DISCHARGE (CN)

Aerial photo taken on July 27, 2020 shows floodwater being discharged from the Three Gorges Dam in central China's Hubei Province. The third flood of the year in the Yangtze River occurred in its upper reaches as the Three Gorges reservoir saw an inflow of 50,000 cubic meters per second at 2 p.m. Sunday. (Photo by Wang Gang/Xinhua)

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Quiet Man

Nothing unreal exists
For those who are familiar with Clif High, he said, in his video posted today, that the TGD dam will collapse; this and lots of related 'macro' information from his predictive linguistics. Find him on YT.

Added: The video is not 'about' the dam collapse, per se; rather, about the global situation and our future, which encompasses the collapse and it's consequences. Very 'big picture'.

Added: Recommended if you're a fan.
 
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