CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

TorahTips said:

There is a record of 26 people using the drug. It worked out that the group was worse off using the drug than not. 26 is not even enough to start with. You need 100000 people in a double blind and controlled study. And, when you are done with that you do it again.

This will take at least 6 months if not more. Although the drug is legal, it has not be approved for this virus. This is a deadly drug and death by overdose is a real possibility. What dosage is effective for stopping the virus? What is the least amount that can be used? What about using it in tandem with another drug? How many does a day? How many days? Relapse? All of these questions (and more) need to be answered.

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Interested in seeing the source for the 26 people study you mention in this post.

A renowned research professor in France has reported successful results from a new treatment for Covid-19, with early tests suggesting it can stop the virus from being contagious in just six days.





Professor Didier Raoult from infection hospital l'Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire (IHU) Méditerranée Infection in Marseille (Bouches-du-Rhône, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur), published a video explaining the trials on Monday March 16.
Professor Raoult is an infectious diseases specialist and head of the IHU Méditerranée Infection, who has been tasked by - and consulted by - the French government to research possible treatments of Covid-19.
He said that the first Covid-19 patients he had treated with the drug chloroquine had seen a rapid and effective speeding up of their healing process, and a sharp decrease in the amount of time they remained contagious.
Chloroquine - which is normally used mainly to prevent and treat malaria - was administered via the named drug, Plaquenil.
The treatment was offered to 24 patients, who were among the first to become infected in the south east of France, and who had voluntarily admitted themselves to hospital for the process.
Patients were given 600mcg per day for 10 days. They were closely monitored, as the drug can interact with other medication, and cause severe side effects in some cases.
Professor Raoult said: “We included everyone who was in agreement [to be treated], which was almost everyone. Two towns in the protocol, Nice and Avignon, gave us [infected] patients who had not yet received treatment.
“We were able to ascertain that patients who had not received Plaquenil (the drug containing hydroxychloroquine) were still contagious after six days, but of those that had received Plaquenil, after six days, only 25% were still contagious.”
Chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine have previously been used to treat coronavirus patients in China, in ongoing Covid-19 clinical trials.
Kaletra, a US-based antiviral drug normally used to treat HIV, is another medicine that is being tested in the fight against Covid-19.



US academic study concurs
A new academic study, published on Friday March 13 by US scientific

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TorahTips said:

It's been all over the media. There were 26 people total.
1 died.
3 ended up vented
1 ejected before drug trial completion.
A good chunk of the 20 that remained in the study faired worse than those that didn't participate in the study.

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Again, do you have a specific source?

The live stream on the President's Task Force finally went active
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwEqukk-Q_8
about -56 min in

TorahTips said:

I saw it on CNN. I saw it elsewhere yesterday. It doesn't matter. What does matter is that there is a significant double blind study going on now. 26 people is a no go in statistical analysis. For this, they need 100000 to see if there is efficacy. When they establish statistical efficacy another placebo study needs to be done to replicate the data. Sometimes there could be a 3rd study.

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That might be so in normal times...if you’re a govt employee. But it’s real simple these days to do real testing for efficacy and safety. Mostly, safety has already been tested. Efficacy testing is not all that difficult right now. And there have been more tests than on 26 people at this stage in the game. Only govt employees would expect the scientists and medical profession to stick to govt rules. I’m from the govt and I’m here to help...and all that.

OK Trump will be blamed for whatever the outcome is whether good bad or indifferent as when you're in opposition you can blame every situation on the Government. Rarely is there a good outcome from this type of crisis.

No one has the definitive answer to this situation, sorry folks but that's the way it is.

Doomer Doug said:

been there and done that. What happened in Wuhan when 500,000 people left just before they did the lock down. Or you can look at the rich fleeing to there summer vacation rentals, or all the New Yorkers who went to their Hampton estates. I will say it again: Trump doesn't seem to understand in mid april when he is planning to do all this reopening he will be facing a massive increase in cases, several million in total. Trump may not be able to accept bad news and if so, he is going to crash and burn spectacularly.

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OR he does see what is happening and is letting events at the time (Easter) be the reason we have to shut down longer, instead of him just saying "Because I said so." We all know how well that turns out. There's too many people (even very smart people and lots of not so smart people) who just can't see the consequences of this virus and the shut down, or lack of. The future is a scary thing right now, and without hope, there will be no economy, no functioning society (which was barely hanging on before this all started) and no nation.

Lee2 said:

Man, I've been listening to Cuomo just come apart at the seams. If he is like this now, this week, how will he be come March 31st? I agree ventilators need to be made and delivered but has he even considered that there are many places other than New York that need them very badly??

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I have heard several New Yorkers say there is New York, and then there's everyplace else.

Know what I mean?

TorahTips said:

I saw it on CNN. I saw it elsewhere yesterday. It doesn't matter. What does matter is that there is a significant double blind study going on now. 26 people is a no go in statistical analysis. For this, they need 100000 to see if there is efficacy. When they establish statistical efficacy another placebo study needs to be done to replicate the data. Sometimes there could be a 3rd study.

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TT... you're out of your area of expertise here. There has NEVER been a double blind study of even 1/10th of the numbers you are throwing around! Try.. 100 to 300.


Summerthyme

Richard said:

Another take, there are apparently 17,000 cases pa of deaths from flu over the past 5 years or so in the UK and probably similar elsewhere, I know that this virus is more contagious, but is it more lethal than flu in the short and long term.
The nation has to be prepared for at least 5-600,000 deaths in the UK regardless of the cause.

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How many times has the flu overwhelmed our hospitals to the point where we send patients home with a note that says "Go die you old SOB." Italy is discharging/refusing to treat anyone 60 or older. So is that happening here -- wait -- has it EVER happened here?

We're not talking about numbers. We're talking about volume to the hospital. I don't care if the numbers are way under the flu. Trump also uses the car accident bowl sheet. He says, "people die in car accidents. Maybe we should outlaw cars."

That shows his lack of intelligence. How many times has car accidents ever overflowed ERs? How many times has the flu resulted in the hallways being lined up with people laying on blankets because there are no beds.

IT'S ABOUT OVERLOAD. SOME HOSPITALS ARE ALREADY GETTING READY TO OVERLOAD AND THIS IS NOT EVEN STARTED. Remember: Overload not numbers.

Over the whole course of this virus there have been 398000 infections. 277,319 of them are still listed as neither dead or recovered. That means with months of this going on a full 70% are still sick? People are not getting better.

THIS IS NOT THE FLU.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIp8DxCdoBo
44:42 min
The Coronavirus Pandemic Forces Leaders To Decide: Save Lives Or The Economy?

•3?24 min Premiered 55 minutes ago
Dr. Chris Martenson (pathologist, investments including gold)

And so it begins ... two (2) confirmed cases at a nursing home in my town. The same nursing home my former M-I-L stayed in March 6th-14th - she's now at my ex's house - where my two "Jr. Haybails'" still visit.

So, quite the "pucker factor" right now.

HB

Bps1691 said:

Two drivers eliminates the hotel stop. A bottle and a funnel takes care of the piss stops. A cooler with some sandwiches from home, cold drinks and a bag or two of snacks takes care of the restaurants. Far as the gas, gloves, mask and social distancing.

added …. forgot the poop breaks. Two rolls of tp a dark road and a bush takes care of that.

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nobody drives my car but me LOL

summerthyme said:

TT... you're out of your area of expertise here. There has NEVER been a double blind study of even 1/10th of the numbers you are throwing around! Try.. 100 to 300.

404 Error

www.winchesterhospital.org

Summerthyme

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I've done scientific double blind studies on my own psychological testing tools that have included over 3000 people. I'm in my area of expertise. People pay me to do statistical anaysis of their data. sorry. You lose that argument. Click on my sig link.

TorahTips said:

I saw it on CNN. I saw it elsewhere yesterday. It doesn't matter. What does matter is that there is a significant double blind study going on now. 26 people is a no go in statistical analysis. For this, txhey need 100000 to see if there is efficacy. When they establish statistical efficacy another placebo study needs to be done to replicate the data. Sometimes there could be a 3rd study.

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Apparently President Trump has sent 100,000 doses to Cuomo in New York. Cuomo was pretty excited about the whole thing. If true i could be a real test for the books.

Bubble Head said:

Apparently President Trump has sent 100,000 doses to Cuomo in New York. Cuomo was pretty excited about the whole thing. If true i could be a real test for the books.

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If they dose for 10 days, that will allow 10,000 patients. That would be a significant study. There are still a lot of questions to be answered but that is a significant start.

TorahTips said:

How many times has the flu overwhelmed our hospitals to the point where we send patients home with a note that says "Go die you old SOB." Italy is discharging/refusing to treat anyone 60 or older. So is that happening here -- wait -- has it EVER happened here?

We're not talking about numbers. We're talking about volume to the hospital. I don't care if the numbers are way under the flu. Trump also uses the car accident bowl sheet. He says, "people die in car accidents. Maybe we should outlaw cars."

That shows his lack of intelligence. How many times has car accidents ever overflowed ERs? How many times has the flu resulted in the hallways being lined up with people laying on blankets because there are no beds.

IT'S ABOUT OVERLOAD. SOME HOSPITALS ARE ALREADY GETTING READY TO OVERLOAD AND THIS IS NOT EVEN STARTED. Remember: Overload not numbers.

Over the whole course of this virus there have been 398000 infections. 277,319 of them are still listed as neither dead or recovered. That means with months of this going on a full 70% are still sick? People are not getting better.

THIS IS NOT THE FLU.

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Can anyone help me with how to hit the Like button and have a “breath” icon instead of the thumbs up? TIA

Nigeria:












UK:








OMG. I shouldn't laugh -- shocking, yall.





Video:

Apparently Denver area has 5 nursing homes with CV19 and currently withholding the information. This is not Trumps fault and this is a travesty but need I say who will get blamed.

summerthyme said:

Pack food and drinks. Avoid coffee... use caffeine tablets as needed (fewer piss stops needed) Bring a couple empty soda bottles for pee breaks if you can't find an open rest stop, or don't want to use public facilities (I wouldn't at this point). You should be able to make it without having to get out of the car more than once, to get fuel.

I think if you have your ID, and are heading in the direction of home, you'll be ok. Heck, they aren't even arresting felons in many areas... they sure don't want people in jail for essentially breaking curfew.

Summerthyme

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yea, right. I did that a few years ago when I drove to Wichita to meet the lady I fell in love with.
I got out of the car and looked at her and thought "She is taller than I thought" (I am 5'11 and she is 5')
She looked at me and thought "I didn't know he was a hunchback"
And a few minutes later she thought "At least he is a great kisser"
Took an hours worth of stretching to straighten up my back.

Tom McDowell said:

New Yorkers Flood Florida – Governor DeSantis Writes Executive Order Requiring 14 Day Self-Quarantine…

Posted on March 23, 2020by sundance

Approximately 20,000 to 40,000 New Yorkers are currently arriving in Florida daily as they flee from the epicenter of the most explosive coronavirus outbreak. However, if the elderly are the most vulnerable; and if isolating the most vulnerable population is the best course of action; and with the largest population of older residents living in Florida; then why are New Yorkers allowed to travel to Florida?

According to data released by Governor DeSantis: Monday saw 190 direct flights from the New York City area into various Florida airports. If 150-200 people average per flight, that’s 28,500 to 38,000 New York metropolitan area residents arriving in Florida today.


In an attempt to mitigate the inbound infection spread, today Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed an executive order requiring all arriving New York and New Jersey residents to be screened upon arrival and self-quarantine immediately after arriving in the state. Not sure how policing compliance is possible.




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"New Yorkers Flood Florida – Governor DeSantis Writes Executive Order Requiring 14 Day Self-Quarantine…"

Yeah, like that's gonna work.

Tristan said:

"New Yorkers Flood Florida – Governor DeSantis Writes Executive Order Requiring 14 Day Self-Quarantine…"

Yeah, like that's gonna work.

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they broke quarantine when the left New York why would Florida be special

Pinecone said:

Yeah, he said they needed them now and when they are done with them they will ship them to the next hot spot. If they are needed for 20 days or so for each patient, by the time NY is done with them, they are sterilized and shipped, the next hot spot has burned to the ground with NY having all the resources. Coumo is primping to be president and he's very, very annoying.

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I guess people everywhere else should just die, right Gov. Cuomo?

Why?

BFYTW?

Right?

Didn't I read a report or three that he had the opportunity, budget and recommendation to purchase 16,000 ventilators several years ago? Instead, he decided to be all Green and shit.

Presidential my ass.

TorahTips said:

they need 100000 to see if there is efficacy.

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Under the circumstances, I'll bet they're willing to live with a significant uncertainty range if that buys speed of results.

jba48 said:

Not referring to your comment specifically, but so many people want to compare CV to flu stats. We are nearly at the end of flu season. We are at the very beginning of this virus! We can't compare flu stats to CV stats until it's over.

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You are attempting to plow the ocean, my friend.

Jubilee on Earth said:

Good question. I had listened to a couple of podcasts on this. The R0 is more of a biological/epidemiological feature of the virus based on spreadability, but it doesn't take into account massive human exposure, like if someone flew on a plane of 300 people or visited a crowded concert or theme park. Those kinds of social behaviors in tight, crowded areas cause far greater spreadability. I mean, in those situations, a person can easily infect 100 people. But that doesn't make the R0 100. Does that make sense? Dr. John Campbell actually goes into some of this in his YouTube video today.

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Pretty good description. The thing to keep in mind is the R0 describes an average transmission rate - an R0 of 3 for example doesn't mean that a particular carrier can't infect 100 others, given the right circumstances...

On the other hand, this has been discussed at length for freakin' weeks on this thread. I'm beginning to wonder if some of the posters on this thread aren't being willfully obtuse, though the possibility of some being trolls is always there.

Best of luck to everyone, may each of your houses be blessed and avoid this bug.

summerthyme said:

TT... you're out of your area of expertise here. There has NEVER been a double blind study of even 1/10th of the numbers you are throwing around! Try.. 100 to 300.

404 Error

www.winchesterhospital.org

Summerthyme

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#1 son who was in the business says the placebo rate has gotten so bad that it has led researchers to doubt their results. And an historical survey has shown that the rate has been increasing by decade so much so that some Euros have been noting a 40% rate.

Thus research protocols have had to be modified to resist drawing the wrong conclusions.

bw said:

Under the circumstances, I'll bet they're willing to live with a significant uncertainty range if that buys speed of results.

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It's unethical and out of everyone's hands. It's and FDA decision. Of course, they could be pressured to stretch ethics depending on what results look like.

The map MzK posted (#37,402) show cases and strings of cases along major highways.

Pinecone said:

OR he does see what is happening and is letting events at the time (Easter) be the reason we have to shut down longer, instead of him just saying "Because I said so." We all know how well that turns out. There's too many people (even very smart people and lots of not so smart people) who just can't see the consequences of this virus and the shut down, or lack of. The future is a scary thing right now, and without hope, there will be no economy, no functioning society (which was barely hanging on before this all started) and no nation.

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There is always hope and his name is jesus

Dozdoats said:

I vaguely remember something called (I think) the Biological Minimum. This was the minimum amount of bacteria needed for you to get the disease. Smallpox for example had a very low BM, took hardly anything for you to get the disease.

Dr. Cambell (the old Brit who is doing very useful videos) said that a 1mm (.04") particle of cough or sneeze ejecta from an infected person contains enough virus particles to be infectious. Which means any fomites (surfaces etc) contaminated by such a particle are also infectious. Viral loads with CV seem to be highest in the first few days after infection, during the time when almost all who are infected are asymptomatic (don't have any clue they are sick).

ETA = thus all the washing of hands really is a GOOD THING. Got sanitizer?

ETA2 - just to be complete - a 1mm droplet (remember "droplet precautions?") will not linger in the air very long. But CV is also aerosolized, which explains field data that the "safe distance" should be considered more like 14 feet than six feet. And CV can linger in still air for several hours.... and can be infectious at particle loads than can be sustained in aerosol environments.

We live and learn ...

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“The old Brit?” I think I remember him saying he was 62. And the “Dr” is not an MD. He is an RN, with lots of extra education.

I agree his videos are quite helpful.

Did you see Kudlow say at the Presidential Task Force presser that the economic package was $2 trillion to workers and small business and $4 trillion to refill the Treasuries Exchange Stabilization Reserve. He did clarify that it was not going to be Minuchin's slush fund, but allocations would be made by a council in a transparent process.

TorahTips said:

IT'S ABOUT OVERLOAD. SOME HOSPITALS ARE ALREADY GETTING READY TO OVERLOAD AND THIS IS NOT EVEN STARTED.

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Evergreen in Kirkland overloaded several days ago, as I understand.

Communist Quality Control: Beijing Sends 150,000 Wuhan Virus Testing Kits to Prague, 80% Fail


By Stephen Green March 24, 2020

(Image by Ahmad Ardity from Pixabay.)

The Communist thugs in charge of China have been trying to have it two ways on coronavirus: Playing the aggrieved victim of racism/biological-warfare/whatever, and acting like the international bigshot who, having solved the crisis at home, is now eager to help other nations around the world.

Beijing's antics are making everything worse everywhere, this time in the Czech Republic.

The Czech newspaper Irozhlas (I-Radio) reports that the bigshots in Beijing sent 150,000 coronavirus rapid testing kits to Czechia which return false results up to 80% of the time.

Forgive the rough Google Translate results, but I don't speak Czech:

"We checked them on Saturday at the University Hospital Ostrava, but unfortunately the error rate was quite high, so now we are waiting for the results of further testing across the country, they have never been tested positively because it works with antibodies," said Svrčinová.

She added that the tests showed false positive and false negative results. "We tested those who searched for a sampling site. Fortunately, we were so far-sighted that samples were immediately taken for the classic examination and that just proved the error rate of the tests," said Svrčinová. Even if tests are used in end-of-quarantine patients, hygienists will want to check their reliability first.

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snip
Jan Hamacek, the Czech Republic's deputy prime minister and interior minister said, "I don't think it's a scandalous revelation that it's not working," but it's difficult to see how he reached that conclusion, given the huge failure rate and that the bad tests return both false positive and false negatives.

Or as RedState's Kira Davis wrote last week, "When this is all over we are f***ing done with China."

Seriously, no more messing around. No more cozying up to Chinese investors (I’m looking at you, Obama). No more handing over vital technology and information to the Chinese government (I’m looking at you, Mr. and Mrs. Clinton). No more back-end deals with Chinese security firms and tech providers (I’m looking at you, Joe Biden). No more Hollywood films made to please the Chinese investors (I’m looking at you, Matt Damon).

We let ourselves be lulled buy cheap goods and fancy smartphones. We are not to blame…who doesn’t want to pay less for more? However, we have all been a part of the equation in some way.

We have looked the other way as China has been slowly encroaching on the markets and governments of the free West. We let ourselves believe that they could find their way to some kind of hybrid capitalism-communism miracle that would eventually infect their culture and turn them more toward the capitalist side.

But as it turned out, Communists are still more invested in propaganda than in the lives of their people, and China's Communists in particular are more interested in turning a quick buck than in producing quality goods.

'Tis a pity. China could have been a great nation. But under the post-Deng Communist Party, China is a typical Third World s***hole country with a First World manufacturing base tacked on.
/snip


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Squid said:

Remember there is no such thing as a stupid question,,

But there incredibly stupid people!!!

Taking a long road trip would subject you to whatever level of hassle each state might have. Would expect State Troopers checking cars on state lines, anyone rolling around.

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I'm reminded of the old adage, better 12 hours too early, than one minute too late.

Millwright said:

The map MzK posted (#37,402) show cases and strings of cases along major highways.

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My first thought was, it looks like it was intentional or on purpose.

Chris Martenson on today's video talking about Kaiser telling nurses that they only have to wear surgical type masks around expected and confirmed virus patients unless doing a procedure like intubation. They told nurses that is they wore their own N95 masks, they would be fired.

This is a screen shot of the difference that a full population wearing face masks of both kinds makes on transmission of the virus. Instructive.

bw said:

Evergreen in Kirkland overloaded several days ago, as I understand.

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Rain gear and bandanas.
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TorahTips said:

I saw it on CNN. I saw it elsewhere yesterday. It doesn't matter. What does matter is that there is a significant double blind study going on now. 26 people is a no go in statistical analysis. For this, they need 100000 to see if there is efficacy. When they establish statistical efficacy another placebo study needs to be done to replicate the data. Sometimes there could be a 3rd study.

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I've been searching for the study you say has been posted and frankly haven't been able to find it. Not trying to be an ass about it, but I seriously can't find the study you referenced seeing/hearing (even on the CNN site). If you have a reference for it I would really like to read it.

I've found the French study (posted earlier) that showed positive results.

I found this Chinise statement where it was effective:


BEIJING, Feb. 17 (Xinhua) -- Chinese experts, based on the result of clinical trials, have confirmed that Chloroquine Phosphate, an antimalarial drug, has a certain curative effect on the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), a Chinese official said here Monday.


The experts have "unanimously" suggested the drug be included in the next version of the treatment guidelines and applied in wider clinical trials as soon as possible, Sun Yanrong, deputy head of the China National Center for Biotechnology Development under the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), said at a press conference.


Chloroquine Phosphate, which has been used for more than 70 years, was selected from tens of thousands of existing drugs after multiple rounds of screening, Sun said.


According to her, the drug has been under clinical trials in over 10 hospitals in Beijing, as well as in south China's Guangdong Province and central China's Hunan Province, and has shown fairly good efficacy.


In the trials, the groups of patients who had taken the drug have shown better indicators than their parallel groups, in abatement of fever, improvement of CT images of lungs, the percentage of patients who became negative in viral nucleic acid tests and the time they need to do so, she said.


Patients taking the drug also take a shorter time to recover, she added.

I agree that it is still a loooong way from being a for sure cure, but at this point anything that shows it can help beats the heck out of nothing.

Tom McDowell said:

Communist Quality Control: Beijing Sends 150,000 Wuhan Virus Testing Kits to Prague, 80% Fail

By Stephen Green March 24, 2020

(Image by Ahmad Ardity from Pixabay.)

The Communist thugs in charge of China have been trying to have it two ways on coronavirus: Playing the aggrieved victim of racism/biological-warfare/whatever, and acting like the international bigshot who, having solved the crisis at home, is now eager to help other nations around the world.

Beijing's antics are making everything worse everywhere, this time in the Czech Republic.

The Czech newspaper Irozhlas (I-Radio) reports that the bigshots in Beijing sent 150,000 coronavirus rapid testing kits to Czechia which return false results up to 80% of the time.

Forgive the rough Google Translate results, but I don't speak Czech:


snip
Jan Hamacek, the Czech Republic's deputy prime minister and interior minister said, "I don't think it's a scandalous revelation that it's not working," but it's difficult to see how he reached that conclusion, given the huge failure rate and that the bad tests return both false positive and false negatives.

Or as RedState's Kira Davis wrote last week, "When this is all over we are f***ing done with China."

Seriously, no more messing around. No more cozying up to Chinese investors (I’m looking at you, Obama). No more handing over vital technology and information to the Chinese government (I’m looking at you, Mr. and Mrs. Clinton). No more back-end deals with Chinese security firms and tech providers (I’m looking at you, Joe Biden). No more Hollywood films made to please the Chinese investors (I’m looking at you, Matt Damon).

We let ourselves be lulled buy cheap goods and fancy smartphones. We are not to blame…who doesn’t want to pay less for more? However, we have all been a part of the equation in some way.

We have looked the other way as China has been slowly encroaching on the markets and governments of the free West. We let ourselves believe that they could find their way to some kind of hybrid capitalism-communism miracle that would eventually infect their culture and turn them more toward the capitalist side.

But as it turned out, Communists are still more invested in propaganda than in the lives of their people, and China's Communists in particular are more interested in turning a quick buck than in producing quality goods.

'Tis a pity. China could have been a great nation. But under the post-Deng Communist Party, China is a typical Third World s***hole country with a First World manufacturing base tacked on.
/snip

Communist Quality Control: Beijing Sends 150,000 Wuhan Virus Testing Kits to Prague, 80% Fail

pjmedia.com

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You know, that's just shocking.

Shocked. Shocked I am.

Really. No kidding.

Ok, maybe kidding a bit.

adgal said:

Sounds like you did have it!

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My oldest son had it about as bad as me, the other 4 had a milder version of it