CORONA Main Coronavirus thread

Melodi

Disaster Cat
Even the authoritarian government of China knows they can't possibly stop the millions of people already traveling home for China's one and only real holiday.

Many were already on their way when this story broke and millions of others will be on the move; if this had started even a month ago they might have been able to do something but at this point, they can only warn people and hope for the best.

And yes, lots of people travel home from overseas as well, it is sadly a perfect set up if you are a virus.
 

SouthernBreeze

Has No Life - Lives on TB
How many confirmed cases do we have now in the US? I'm still only seeing 1 case, but rumor has it that there is 1 case in Florida, and 1 case in Atlanta. I'm only interested in what has been confirmed by CDC.
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
How many confirmed cases do we have now in the US? I'm still only seeing 1 case, but rumor has it that there is 1 case in Florida, and 1 case in Atlanta. I'm only interested in what has been confirmed by CDC.

It's hard to know at this point, most probably the person in Seattle has been in the country a week plus and is probably in isolation at some major hospital. I'd imagine it'll take the CDC more than 24 hours to figure out if the person(s) who is ill has the China Virus or something else.
 

SouthernBreeze

Has No Life - Lives on TB
It's hard to know at this point, most probably the person in Seattle has been in the country a week plus and is probably in isolation at some major hospital. I'd imagine it'll take the CDC more than 24 hours to figure out if the person(s) who is ill has the China Virus or something else..

Ok. Thanks! My hair's not on fire yet, but I am watching this thing closely. That's why I'm only interested in confirmations by the CDC.
 

Truthsearch

Doom is ALWAYS 6 Months Away...
Just read on Twitter how this virus escaped from a level IV biological weapons facility.


Anonymous ID:8plKfHOD Tue 31 Dec 2019 12:03:32 No.237835102
Quoted By: >>237836054
Right now it is better to get those folks in the fold. We have enough stuff behind the curtains to deal with them. Lets all make a buck and be friends. The experimentation thing is bad because they ****ed up a while back and released a virus in one of their facilities in Central China that killed over 5000 people. Really bad shit. They stopped it but close. Real close.
 

Truthsearch

Doom is ALWAYS 6 Months Away...
4,000 people infected:

 

Pinecone

Has No Life - Lives on TB

Trump says US has plan to contain coronavirus
By Brie Stimson | Fox News


Fox News' John Roberts provides insight into President Trump's remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

President Trump said Wednesday that the United States has a plan to contain the deadly coronavirus after the first case was reported in the country this week, reports said.

Speaking from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump praised the "very good professionals" at the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control. "We're in very good shape and think China's in very good shape also," he said, according to a CBS reporter.

FIRST CASE OF CHINA-LINKED CORONAVIRUS REPORTED IN US, FEDERAL OFFICIALS SAY

Mark Knoller

@markknoller

https://twitter.com/markknoller/status/1219923104136409088

Asked about US response to the Coronavirus, says "we do have a plan and we think we've already handled it very well." He praises "very great professionals" as the @CDCgov. "We're in very good shape and think China's in very good shape also."


16

2:01 AM - Jan 22, 2020
Twitter Ads info and privacy
https://twitter.com/markknoller/status/1219923104136409088

“We think we've already handled it very well,” he said.Trump also told CNBC in an interview that the U.S. has the situation "totally under control," adding, “It’s one person coming in from China. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”He said he trusts how China’s President Xi has handled the outbreak.

"I have a great relationship with President Xi," he told CNBC.Major airports in New York and California have started screening passengers on connecting flights from Wuhan, China, where the disease was first reported, CNBC reported.The CDC confirmed Tuesday that a man in Seattle had contracted the disease, which has symptoms similar to pneumonia, after arriving from China.The disease has killed at least nine patients and sickened more than 300 others, according to China's National Health Commission.

Cases have also been confirmed in Thailand, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, according to CNBC.
 

Pinecone

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Hmmmmm

This tweet if from a professor at University of British Columbia
SCHOOL OF POPULATION AND PUBLIC HEALTH (SPPH) .


@
ubcspph
clinical professor Stephen Hoption Cann says at this point, the virus shouldn't deter someone from visiting China.
 

20Gauge

TB Fanatic
It is not so much the death rate. but rather the number of people who need to be hospitalized. If that number is high and the virus spreads, it has the basic components for a real disaster.

Just think....10% mortality with a 80% hospital rate. The mortality and hospital rates overlap, so we have 80% of those who get infected are hospitalized. What would be a horrible infection rate?

USA population 350 million

10% infection rate is 31.5 million in the hospital
20% infection rate is 63.0 million in the hospital
30% infection rate is 94.5 million in the hospital

Even with a 1% infection rate we are looking at 3.15 million in the hospital. Georgia is looking at a 7% infection rate from the current flu.

Just how much will shut down the economy? 5%. 10% or the panic that comes from a 1% infection rate?

The death rate is not the issue in the moderate term unless it is above 90% and very quick to kill. It will be the hospitalization rate that downs this country if it gets high enough with the infection rate.....

Please correct me if I am wrong!!!
 

TheSearcher

Are you sure about that?
I am reminded of the threads I've read here about how China has been taking over Africa. If/when it gets into Africa, they do not have the medical resources to keep it from spiraling out of control.
That's a scary thought, that is...
 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Looks like today's headlines will be travel restrictions and enhanced screening of travelers.

The 17 fatalities are worldwide. The Sky News headline is a little misleading due to it's brevity.

Fair Use Cited
---------------
Screening in UK as 17 killed by 'mutating' coronavirus

The warning comes as 473 cases of coronavirus were confirmed on Wednesday, including 15 medical personnel.

Sunita Patel-Carstairs
News reporter
Wednesday 22 January 2020 16:49, UK

The new virus that has killed 17 people in China is mutating and could spread further, health officials have warned, as Britain announced measures to monitor flights arriving from the country.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps told Sky News a "separate area" is being set up at Heathrow, as airports around the world step up screening of travellers arriving from affected regions at the centre of the coronavirus outbreak.

Public Health England (PHE) has revised the coronavirus risk from "very low" to "low".

As a result, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has put in force a series of measures to guard against the outbreak. These include:
  • A beefed-up PHE port health team will meet each direct flight from affected areas
  • An audio message is to be broadcast to passengers on incoming aircraft to encourage them to report any illness
  • Captains will be authorised to warn airports of any ill passengers on board flights while the aircraft is in transit. A response (nil or otherwise) will be requested no later than 60 minutes before the actual arrival time
  • An isolated area of London Heathrow Terminal 4 is to be designated to receive aircraft which have reported any ill passengers
  • Leaflets are to be handed to passengers telling them what to do in the event that they are/become unwell
  • And facilities at Terminal 4 are to be reviewed should the current situation escalate
Mr Shapps said: "There have been some announcements this morning about flights that come direct from the affected region to Heathrow with some additional measures there.

Obviously we want to stay ahead of the issue so we are keeping a very close eye on it.

"Initially this is to ensure that when flights come in directly into Heathrow there is a separate area for people to arrive in."

A Heathrow spokesperson said: "The welfare of our passengers and colleagues is always our main priority and we are working with the government to support the implementation of enhanced monitoring measures as a precaution.

"We would like to reassure passengers that the government assesses the risk of a traveller contracting coronavirus to be low. We would encourage anyone with individual questions or concerns to refer to guidance from Public Health England and the Foreign Office."

The action comes as China state media reports the number of coronavirus cases in Hubei province has risen to 444, with 17 people now confirmed dead.

Overall 473 cases of coronavirus were confirmed by Chinese authorities, as millions of people prepare to travel domestically and abroad for the country's lunar new year celebrations starting this week.

Another 2,197 cases of close contact with patients have been recorded and there is evidence of "respiratory transmission" of the virus, national health commission vice-minister Li Bin told reporters, in the body's first major news briefing on the outbreak.

Fifteen medical personnel are among those infected in the country, with symptoms including fever, coughing and difficulty breathing.

There is no vaccine for the new viral infection, which can cause pneumonia and can be passed from person to person.
Though the origin of the virus has yet to be identified, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said the primary source is probably an animal.

The virus originated in the central city of Wuhan in Hubei province at the end of last year and has since spread to Beijing and Shanghai.

Cases have also been found in the US, Thailand, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan. All of these involve people who had recently been in Wuhan.

Hong Kong - and the autonomous region of Macau - each recorded their first case of coronavirus on Wednesday.
The Chinese government has been providing daily updates on the number of cases in a bid to head off public panic, with officials linking the outbreak to Wuhan's seafood market.

It has also stepped up efforts to control the outbreak by tightening containment measures in hospitals, and discouraging public gatherings in Hubei province.

People across the country are being urged to avoid densely populated areas in general, the health commission said.
China has also stepped up its co-operation with the WHO, which is holding an emergency meeting to determine whether the outbreak of the new coronavirus constitutes a global health emergency.

The Chinese Communist Party's central political and legal commission said in a post on its WeChat social media account that officials found to have covered up infections would be a "sinner for eternity before the party and the people".
The post was subsequently deleted.

Fears of a pandemic similar to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak that started in China and killed nearly 800 people between 2002 and 2003 have rocked global markets, with aviation and luxury goods stocks hit particularly hard and the Chinese yuan tumbling.

Adam Kamradt-Scott, an infectious diseases expert at the centre for international security studies at the University of Sydney, said China has "come a long way" since the SARS outbreak.

He said: "I'm not sure that we could expect more of them at this stage in the outbreak, particularly when they are understandably focused on responding to the outbreak and trying to contain it ahead of the Chinese lunar new year celebrations."

Companies across China - including Huawei and Apple-supplier Foxconn - are handing out masks and warning staff to avoid travelling to Wuhan.

Travel booking platforms such as Trip.com have said users can cancel travel plans to Wuhan for free, while Shanghai's Disneyland said it will waive rescheduling fees for entry and hotel bookings within six months of the purchase date.
Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd, one of the airlines most affected by the SARS outbreak, said it will allow passengers to change or cancel flights to Wuhan without charge through to 15 February.

It said it would also allow flight attendants to wear a surgical mask while operating mainland China flights due to concerns over the new virus.

Taiwan joined Australia in warning citizens to avoid travel to Wuhan, while North Korea has banned foreign tourists to guard against the spread of the virus.

Singapore is among the countries that have started screening all passengers arriving on flights from China.

Analysis by Sky's Tom Cheshire in Wuhan, China

Wuhan is not in panic but it is unnaturally quiet.

At the train station, there is only a trickle of people where you'd expect a torrent. It should be much busier on any Wednesday, let alone the one before Chinese New Year, the biggest annual human migration.

People want to stay away and those who are here have come only reluctantly. One young woman told us: "I try to stay indoors as much as possible. If I come to a place like this where there could be a lot of virus. I wear a mask."

Another lady was taking her young nephew back to Beijing. She said: "We planned to spend Chinese New Year here in Wuhan, but the situation here is not good so we are going back."

The other key sites in the city are on lockdown. The food market where authorities believe the outbreak began has been shut since 31 December but is still guarded by scores of police officers. It's been disinfected, authorities say. But piles of used, discarded gloves, suits and masks are just lying on the ground.

Around 15 minutes drive away, the Wuhan Medical Treatment Centre is refusing all patients except those who are suspected to have human coronavirus, an official who wouldn't give his name told us.

We waited a few hours there, until an ambulance came rushing in, lights flashing and sirens blaring. A man was unloaded and put on a stretcher. The medical stuff were in full protective suits, head to toe, not an inch of skin showing. The woman who accompanied the man in the ambulance was protected only by a mask.

The latest case to add to a total that leaps every day.

 

Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
What doesn't seem to be realized in a lot of places is that while yes, especially after mid-term break/New Years the Chinese diaspora will be an issue (when they return back to their colleges or adopted homes) the SERIOUS danger for mass infections is likely to be the people who don't "look" like they "should" matter.

Aka that totally white British guy who is sick in Bangcock for instance, if he had shown up in a bush NHS ER during flu season on London; especially in the early stages of the disease, he'd be put on a "trolly" (gurney) while they looked for a bed maybe for up to 48 hours (while he's in a hallway breathing and coughing on everyone, already having done so in the ER and the Plane).

Even when he gets sicker unless some busy intern notices the guy just came back from the Far East (maybe even Australia) no one is likely to make a connection between the flu-respiratory type symptoms and this new virus.


By the time they do realize it, dozens or even hundreds could be infected depending on just how easily this thing spreads and we simply don't know that for certain yes.

Now someone Chinese looking that showed up with exactly the same symptoms, especially if they were obviously a non-Native English speaker would be asked for their travel details and isolated right away (if that is at all possible).

That's why there is a serious danger in what people are NOT expecting, as well of course from people who actually do fit the profile and have traveled in the affected area.

Japan just banning Chinese people won't solve their exposure issues, though it might give them a few extra days before the tourists going to both countries (or business people) starting landing as carriers.

This is a worse case scenario of course, it may not get that bad.

That is some scary stuff Melodi.

The UK NHS is barely capable of administering basic day to day health care in any sort of a timely fashion.

The system there is already under significant stress.

How much more stress can it sustain?
 
Last edited:

jward

passin' thru
It is not so much the death rate. but rather the number of people who need to be hospitalized. If that number is high and the virus spreads, it has the basic components for a real disaster.

Just think....10% mortality with a 80% hospital rate. The mortality and hospital rates overlap, so we have 80% of those who get infected are hospitalized. What would be a horrible infection rate?

USA population 350 million

10% infection rate is 31.5 million in the hospital
20% infection rate is 63.0 million in the hospital
30% infection rate is 94.5 million in the hospital

Even with a 1% infection rate we are looking at 3.15 million in the hospital. Georgia is looking at a 7% infection rate from the current flu.

Just how much will shut down the economy? 5%. 10% or the panic that comes from a 1% infection rate?

The death rate is not the issue in the moderate term unless it is above 90% and very quick to kill. It will be the hospitalization rate that downs this country if it gets high enough with the infection rate.....

Please correct me if I am wrong!!!

As I said I am in complete agreement re: the problem being if and when our demand for equipment and personel exceeds our supply.

Not sure where you draw the idea that 80% of those infected need hospitalized. The best and brightest in the field caution we simply do not have a model we can extrapolate numbers from, period. The latest pdf from the WHO that I saw had only 12\300 meeting the criteria for critical, which was the designation that might, but did not necessarily mean ICU n mechanical interventions required. Still a waiting game according to Dr. Majumder and other of the brightest n best informed, at least, last time I checked, and things do change and " mutate" quickly :eek:
 

jward

passin' thru
Where are they getting it from? Hookers? Yeah I am going with Hookers.

Good science doesn't permit them to point out the streets r probably full of mild, moderate and recovered cases...but yeah. They surely are, right? And yeah. Hookers too LOL
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
It is scary, and a similar thing happened with Ebola in a busy ER in Dallas a few years ago, Doctors and Nurses can't just assume that someone who walks in with a bad cough or even a severe lung condition has got a terrifying new and contagious disease.

Now the Brit in Thailand turned out NOT to have this particular illness but it took several days to find that out.

I picked the NHS because I know the situation there and it has a large number of tourists this time of year who go to resorts in Asia and other countries near to China - so does Ireland.

But it can happen anywhere, and it is just simply human nature that if something breaks out in China even trained people are more likely to flag an Oriental person first, rather than someone with a Yorkshire accent whose a typical Brit (or a white American IT worker).
 

NCGirl

Veteran Member
Guy that works for hubby in China said that he is hearing they are shutting down Wuhan. Not just public transportation but actually not going to allow anyone in Wuhan to leave. Not confirmed on news yet that I have seen.

Have 2 engineer's there now so panic mode for them in the middle of the night.
 

northern watch

TB Fanatic
China Virus Death Toll Jumps to 17 as Authorities Work to Understand Illness; Little is known about the novel coronavirus, making it challenging for authorities to figure out the appropriate action to take
Wednesday, January 22, 2020, 1:43 PM ET
By Chao Deng
Wall Street Journal

BEIJING—A newly identified virus originating in central China is spreading between people primarily through coughing, kissing or contact with saliva, Chinese authorities suggested, as the death toll rose to 17 and the number of confirmed cases surpassed 500.

The number of infections from the new pneumonia-causing coronavirus has multiplied in recent days, with 546 confirmed cases in mainland China as of Wednesday, according to state broadcaster China Central Television and local Chinese authorities, up from more than 300 announced the previous day . From its initial emergence in a seafood and livestock market in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, the virus has spread across China and, as of Tuesday, into the U.S.

In Hong Kong, health authorities said Wednesday that it was likely a patient had been infected with the new coronavirus, in what would be the Chinese territory's first confirmed case. The patient, a 39-year-old man from Wuhan, had arrived in Hong Kong on Tuesday, Hong Kong Food and Health Secretary Sophia Chan said at a news conference. Preliminary examinations had shown the man testing positive for the virus, Ms. Chan said.

Additionally, across the Pearl River, the Chinese territory of Macau confirmed its first case Wednesday: a 52-year-old woman who had taken a high-speed train from Wuhan, Chinese state media reported.

Several provinces and territories in China, including Fujian, Anhui, Liaoning and Guizhou, announced their first confirmed infection cases, according to CCTV and local Chinese authorities. The province of Hubei, of which Wuhan is the capital and largest city, late Wednesday reported a total 444 confirmed cases, up from 270 announced the previous day. It has been the only region to report deaths from the virus so far—rising to 17 from six a day earlier.

Outside China, health authorities have now tallied up three infected patients in Thailand, and one each in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. On Tuesday, health officials confirmed that a man who had recently arrived in Washington state after a visit to Wuhan had become the U.S.'s first confirmed case.

China is entering one of its busiest travel periods of the year , leading up to the Lunar New Year holiday that formally begins on Friday, increasing the risk of transmission for the virus. Severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, which spread through China in late 2002 and early 2003, also overlapped with the holiday, during which tens of millions of Chinese return home to spend time with family. SARS, caused by a different strain of coronavirus, spread globally and killed 774 people after its emergence in southern China.

An emergency committee of the World Health Organization was scheduled to meet Wednesday in Geneva about whether the outbreak of the new virus constitutes a public-health emergency of international concern. That designation would help mobilize resources to prevent the virus's spread.

In Beijing, Chinese health officials said at a briefing Wednesday that they are still working to understand more about the virus, while pledging to release timely information.

This week, Zhong Nanshan, one of the country's best-known epidemiologists, confirmed suspicions that the novel coronavirus was spreading between humans , which would allow the disease to be transmitted among people who don't interact with any animals. The virus is believed to have spread to humans from animals at the Wuhan market.

Chinese hospitals are stepping up preventive measures, health officials say, and government officials are recommending that people not enter or leave Wuhan.

Hubei province plans to ask the national government for emergency aid, the official Communist Party mouthpiece People's Daily reported Wednesday. Hubei is short of facemasks , the report said.

Little is known about the new virus, making it more challenging for authorities to figure out the appropriate action to take, experts say. Chinese authorities have yet to determine which animal originally harbored the virus and passed it on to humans, although they have said it was likely a wild animal. They also have yet to announce what they believe is the incubation period for the disease, or the time it takes for infected patients to start showing symptoms.

"If you knew the incubation period, you could do quarantining of people who are in close contact with infected patients," said Melissa Nolan, an assistant professor at the University of South Carolina's Arnold School of Public Health.

As China's government races to find out more about how the disease is spreading, it is paying attention to the possibility of superspreaders—infected patients who have been able to pass on the virus to several people—Gao Fu, a director at China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said at the government's news briefing.

On Tuesday, the epidemiologist Dr. Zhong, who leads an expert committee organized by the Beijing government, said one patient in Wuhan had infected more than a dozen medical staff.

But Mr. Gao said there was no evidence yet of superspreaders.

One reason SARS spread so quickly nearly two decades ago was because some individuals were able to transmit the disease to dozens of others
.

Yijun Yin, Lucy Craymer and Liyan Qi contributed to this article.

Write to Chao Deng at Chao.Deng@wsj.com

China Virus Death Toll Jumps to 17 as Authorities Work to Understand Illness
 

jward

passin' thru
Guy that works for hubby in China said that he is hearing they are shutting down Wuhan. Not just public transportation but actually not going to allow anyone in Wuhan to leave. Not confirmed on news yet that I have seen.

Have 2 engineer's there now so panic mode for them in the middle of the night.

Yup apparently. Thanks so much for your reports Ncgirl. A bit like watching a trainwreck in real time, but truly informative! j

Apex (@Apex_WW) Tweeted:
#UPDATE #coronavirus #Wuhan #China China Daily on Twitter View: https://twitter.com/Apex_WW/status/1220058249967362049?s=20
 

NCGirl

Veteran Member
yes, jward, but he said going on WeChat rumur that they are shutting down roads also. No one in or out. Hopefully just a crazy rumor but they are moving nonetheless.
 

jward

passin' thru
yes, jward, but he said going on WeChat rumur that they are shutting down roads also. No one in or out. Hopefully just a crazy rumor but they are moving nonetheless.

I too hope its rumour, but reports like that last tweet i posted are starting to echo the point you heard...

"...
intelfeedia (@intelfeedia) Tweeted:
Chinese state media reports that no one will be allowed to leave Wuhan, city with a population of 11 million, beginning at 10am on Thursday. Coronavirus is spreading and becoming far worse as death toll has reached 17. #coronavirus @Natsecjeff @TheWarMonitor @AndrewSErickson. ...."
 

samus79

Veteran Member
yes, jward, but he said going on WeChat rumur that they are shutting down roads also. No one in or out. Hopefully just a crazy rumor but they are moving nonetheless.

Huge Dot if it turns out to be true, thanks for the info
 
Top