The fall of Avdeveka did go relatively fast, demonstrating both the increased Russian firepower with their glide bomb modifications and the fact that the Ukrainians are just running short of people.It appears that Chasov Yar IS on the Menu - reports that almost all civilians have gone and the Russian troops have been making slow and steady advances - currently only 1km away and hitting the city hard. It is clear this is even more important and operationally significant than Avdiivka was.
Avdivika went a LOT faster then even I think the Russians expected. With Air dominance I would not be surprised if this becomes the testing ground for their new FAB-3000 - 3.3 TON Glide Bombs. Without AD there is nothing to stop the Russian advances. Yes Ukraine can send more "replacements" into front line trenches after a hit. But it is very likely Ukraine will run out of "replacements" well before Russian runs out of bombs.
I'm not much of a strategist, frankly, so this following paragraph is strictly conjecture. I think the Russkies' push west will go to Dnipro before they pause, but they need to seal off the northern area around Kharkov & Sumy before pushing south from Dnipro towards Chisinau (Transinistra actually, I don't think they're particularly interested in Moldova unless they decide to have a presence closer to Romania). Once that's accomplished, Odessa is isolated without the bloody battles and difficulties along that coastal front, with the much easier approach through lightly-populated central Ukraine.
They can cut off Ukraine's entire southern logistics chain and export ocean routes, and choke down Odessa's defenders so that their only escape is to the south, through the Danube's delta swamps. I think then the west will be calling for Ukraine to surrender; Europe will be in such a deep recession by then that it has no sane alternative.
Whatever is blowing up with the US' election by then will have a lot to do with the ultimate outcomes. Ukraine is most likely to become a red-headed stepchild geopolitically with which people just want to get it finished, wherever the chips may lie. Poland, Hungary and Romania will have to decide if they want to carve up the rest of Ukraine. Rump Ukraine could well become another Baltic yapping chihuahua state but they'll be so broke that nobody will want anything to do with them. They'll be on their own, but after annexation, Russia will rebuild the eastern and southern areas and restore its infrastructure. It'll take a long time.