Turkey closed its air space to the US in the last - defensive action - there is Zero chance they would take part in an attack on Iran or allow US aircraft to attack Iran from their nation.
Turkey closed its air space to the US in the last - defensive action - there is Zero chance they would take part in an attack on Iran or allow US aircraft to attack Iran from their nation.
FJ
@Natsecjeff
How the Israel Air Force could bring Iran to its knees - analysis
What if Israel finally decides to strike back? What if it decides to take this opportunity to finally bomb Iran’s prized nuclear weapons program?
How the Israel Air Force could bring Iran to its knees - analysis
What if Israel finally decides to strike back? What if it decides to take this opportunity to finally bomb Iran’s prized nuclear weapons program?
APRIL 14, 2024 12:27
Updated: APRIL 14, 2024 17:38
Iran took its best shot (or a very significant one) at Israel with over 100 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and over 100 drones, totaling over 300 forms of aerial attack from many different sides and vectors.
What if Israel finally decides to strike back? What if it decides to take this opportunity to finally bomb Iran’s prized nuclear weapons program?
Such a scenario has been gamed out for years, but here is one version of what it could look like.
Several quartets of F-35 stealth combat jets could fly by separate routes to hit sites across the massive Islamic Republic, some as far as 1,200 miles from the Jewish state.
Some of the aircraft might fly along the border between Syria and Turkey (despite those countries' opposition) and then race across Iraq (who would also oppose). Other aircraft might fly through Saudi airspace (unclear if this would be with quiet agreement or opposition) and the Persian Gulf.
The main aim would be to eliminate Iran's air defense
They might arrive simultaneously or in waves (as Iran did overnight between Saturday and Sunday) to first eliminate the ayatollahs’ air defenses at dozens of Iranian nuclear sites, carefully hand-picked by the Mossad and IDF intelligence.
An Iranian missile system is seen during an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ground forces military drill in the Aras area, East Azerbaijan province, Iran, October 17, 2022. (credit: IRGC/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS)
Their job would be to eliminate Iran’s serious air defense shield, a much more sophisticated defense system than anything Lebanon, Syria, or Hamas possesses.
Regardless of whether the F-35s came in unison or in waves, there would almost certainly be a separate wave for Israel’s F-15 eagles, F-16 fighting falcons, and heavily loaded F-35s carrying 5,000-pound American GBU-72 bombs. 2,000 pound and smaller bombs might also be used for a variety of targets.
There might even be additional waves after that to assist in penetrating deep into the ground to destroy Iran’s top nuclear facilities at Fordow and Natanz.
The IDF could also potentially use a significant number of its own surface-to-surface ballistic missiles as well as intelligence-collecting and attack drones.
Fordow’s main chamber is buried some 80 meters underground, a depth that only the 30,000-pound “bunker buster” bombs in the American arsenal could immediately destroy.
But even under the Trump administration, the US has always refused to provide Israel with such bunker busters.
That said, one does not need to entirely eliminate a facility to render it useless. A repeated series of strikes could block Tehran’s access to electric power, bury its entrances and exits, and cut it off from the world.
Such an operation might not be free.
Iran might succeed at shooting down aircraft.
Some aircraft might fail to make the return flight due to fuel issues even if there was some complex midair refueling capability or midway landing spot as part of the plan.
On the positive side, despite the massive number of aerial attacks by the IDF in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, which reportedly also included F-15 and F-16 fighter aircraft at times, Israel lost only one F-16 in early 2018 and has never lost an F-35.
Special forces or Mossad agents in Iran to assist close-up could be lost one way or another.
There are also additional facilities that Israel might strike, such as the heavy water reactor at Arak, the uranium conversion plant near Isfahan, research reactors at Bonab, Ramsar, and Tehran, and other facilities where Iran has moved forward on weaponization issues – though these facilities might be a lower priority as they are earlier points in the nuclear weapons cycle.
As of mid-2023, it was also revealed that IDF intelligence formed a new unit of dozens of officers with one goal: to collect and assess intelligence to develop a massive target bank for hitting Iran far beyond just its nuclear program.
The targets were to include key power sources for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in order to bring them to their knees much the same way IDF intelligence had collected intelligence for years on an enormous number of Hamas and Hezbollah targets.
Israel might not undertake a huge attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
If it does, it might not open up the much larger target bank of IRGC targets.
Maintaining US and allied support is also a crucial value.
On the other hand, the main reason not to attack Iran for years has been the blowback that Jerusalem could receive from Hezbollah, Hamas, and hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles.
Being that most of the worst case scenarios have already transpired – and even worse including Yemen who was not viewed as for sure taking part in a theoretical larger war as they have in fact in the current very real war – there would seem to be a lot less of a reason to hold back at this moment than at anytime in decades.
How the Israel Air Force could bring Iran to its knees - analysis
Just talking and giving opinion, nothing more:They have won in Ukraine. Now it is pushing forward until the lines break, as they seem to be doing. They may be itching for a lot of payback. Maybe they think Iran might be the place to get it. A considerable number of NATO members may not think that Iran vs Israel, and collateral damage, is a NATO matter. Time will tell.
Turkey closed its air space to the US in the last - defensive action - there is Zero chance they would take part in an attack on Iran or allow US aircraft to attack Iran from their nation.
This isn’t a NATO action and they are still sovereign independent countriesTurkey is NATO. How does that play out?
Who ARE these people, and where did they learn their craft (always assuming they learned Some of it SOMEWHERE) .EXCLUSIVE: "An Iranian military security official has revealed that the US contacted the Islamic Republic, asking the nation to allow Israel 'a symbolic strike to save face' following Iran's retaliatory drone and missile barrage this weekend."
This isn’t a NATO action and they are still sovereign independent countries
Got THAT right!!!That might work for a minute or two...but not if this thing gets much hotter.
That CAN'T be a real story.Will Schryver and IntelSky follow
Sharmine Narwani
@snarwani
EXCLUSIVE: "An Iranian military security official has revealed that the US contacted the Islamic Republic, asking the nation to allow Israel 'a symbolic strike to save face' following Iran's retaliatory drone and missile barrage this weekend."
View: https://twitter.com/snarwani/status/1780199469172113877EXCLUSIVE: US makes failed bid for Iran to allow 'symbolic strike' by Israel
Washington used diplomatic backchannels to ask Tehran not to retaliate to an Israeli strike, which would allow Tel Aviv to 'save face' following the massive retaliatory attack launched by Iranthecradle.co
Then somebody screwed up, because Google Maps shows about 100 Nato-style TAB-V hardened aircraft shelters all around that base. And it's a huge airbase with 5 runways and numerous parallel taxiways usable as emergency runways.This “quote” came from a plan to attack an air base that was not fortified, or at least not parked therein. Good for the Israelis.
The US simply can't "tell" other countries what to do and how high they're allowed to jump anymore.
The US money and support says we can.
Just to add... I have counted 5 special aircraft have departed Offutt AFB, in Nebraska. TOPCT23-R135, Cobra36-W135, IRON96-E6, HOOVR63-R135,SNOOP34-R135.
All going in different directions.
All on adsbexchange.
That is our stick and carrot. The truth is without US military support Israel would be in big trouble. What would have happened to Israel if the US and Jordan hadn’t helped take down those drones and missiles? In addition to what we send them we pay for a lot of the stuff they manufacture.The US money and support says we can.
Oh NO!!! Iran is going to unleash its stealth fighter and show the world how stealthy cardboard, fiberglass and Silly Putty can be!The Spectator Index
@spectatorindex
BREAKING: Official from Iranian parliamentary national security commission says his country is ready to use a 'weapon we have never used before' if Israel launches retaliatory attack
3:59 PM · Apr 15, 2024
841K
Views
Counting derivatives, we're over a Quadrillion in the hole. Seriously- what money?
This isn’t true. Freedom of religion is guaranteed in Israel.View: https://youtu.be/eHayOkXe5ig?feature=shared
Must see.
Many Christians blindly support Israel without understanding the country and how Christians are not truly free there.
Can start around 27:45.
Evangelism is illegal.
Ironic that evangelicals in U.S. wholeheartedly support Israel, yet it is illegal to set up such churches there.
Israel is not a real democracy island in the MidEast like the media and governments portray it. The right for self-determination is only for the Jewish people (no other people), as written in the law.
First NATO - by definition - is a defensive operation. Granted they have taken part in a number of offensive actions attacking other nations FIRST. But in the end there is NO requirement that they act in lock step. Even in the often called out Article 5 - an attack against one is an attack against all - does not require all members to take military action. Even under Article 5 each nation gets to decide on what and how much they will do - they can even sit out the conflict.Turkey is NATO. How does that play out?
Danger in this scenario is Israel's Samson Option. Then becomes ELE or TEOTWAWKI event. Move into nukes, end with sticks and stones.Could be an Iranian war plan. On the first Iranian attack, throw few hundreds lightweight generic drones and missiles at Israel, discovering how Israel defends itself and sap off some of Israel’s (and its allies’) very expensive defensive tools, while expending only low-dollar ordnance. Then fine tune the real Iranian offensive as a response to a measured Israeli offensive revenge response (a response that, as a bonus, looks like it may only go without US active support).
That real Iranian response would be all-out, full-blast, flood-the-zone with 100,000 thousand missiles/drones from Iran and its heavily-equipped allies Hezbollah (120-150,000 of its own missile) and from Shia rebels in Syria and Iraq and Yemen (compared to the mere few hundred incoming during Iran’s first time around launches). No way could Israel defenses keep up with that inundation. Could easily be a ELE for Israel, Especially if US is pissed at Israel for not standing down on their revenge attack, and will not (and cannot) give a timely response on this full-fledged attack. Especially ominous if the Iraqi fundamentalist leaders do not fear nuclear conflagration (or have arranged with Russia for a nuclear umbrella that Washington decides “just aint worth fighting.”
Been mentioned already but that is what I fear is coming
I was thinking that, after I posted.Severe weather evacuation like yesterday's report of close to 40 or more planes getting out of town at Altus AFB?
See Ezekiel 38 & 39why would russia want to participate in an a counter attack with iran
I could see them providing intelligence or maybe some logistical help
but seems russia doesn't need another front using up material and other resources right now
I have to wonder if the F-35's full capabilities were demonstrated? There's always been talk that the ECM suite and radar could be used to deliver a microwave pulse to disable the electronics of an attacking aircraft.If it exists it's probably microwave based as described.
I have to wonder if the F-35's full capabilities were demonstrated? There's always been talk that the ECM suite and radar could be used to deliver a microwave pulse to disable the electronics of an attacking aircraft.
Maybe it could be used against missiles as well? Get a radar lock-on, send a pulse and the missile goes out of control. F-35s flying over Iraq would be close enough to get a radar lock shortly after launch and missiles in their boost phase would be moving slowly, so plenty of time for engagement. Maybe even for the missiles to fall on Iran.
No. Purely internal to the F-35's onboard electronics and not a one-time thing like CHAMP. Limiting factor would be how long the F-35 could stay on-station within range of the Iranian border.Some variation of the CHAMP missile?
Likely for internal political reasons - have to show they are STRONG. But more likely to test Iran's AD Systems to judge if a larger attack could be pulled off.Faytuks News Δ
@Faytuks
There is US intelligence to suggest Israel is weighing a narrow and limited strike inside Iran, source tells CNN
View: https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1780219315989495852
No. Purely internal to the F-35's onboard electronics and not a one-time thing like CHAMP. Limiting factor would be how long the F-35 could stay on-station within range of the Iranian border.
Perfect time for an Israeli response. First warhead targeted to the VIP reviewing stand, with "HAPPY BIRTHDAY AYATOLLAH" written on it.OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
Lots of Military Equipment including Missiles and Drones have been reported tonight being moved around and into the Iranian Capital of Tehran with several Account claiming that this is Preparation for an Israeli Retaliatory Strike; however, if you Pay Close Attention to the most of the Footage you can see Banners on the several of the Vehicles, indicating that most of this Equipment is likely for Parades on Thursday, the 18th of April, which is Islamic Republic of Iran Army Day.
View: https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1780032570224181706