05/06-7 | Weekend Bird Flu Thread: Bird Flu Fears Hike Survival Gear Demand

Link to yesterday's thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=196215

Human Cases

Since January, 2004 WHO has reported human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) in the following countries:

* East Asia and the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Indonesia
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* Europe & Eurasia:
o Azerbaijan
(see update)
o Turkey

* Near East:
o Egypt
o Iraq

For additional information about these reports, visit the
World Health Organization Web Site.

Updated April 3, 2006

Animal Cases

Since December 2003, avian influenza A (H5N1) infections in poultry or wild birds have been reported in the following countries:

* Africa:
o Burkina Faso
o Cameroon
o Niger
o Nigeria
o Sudan

* East Asia & the Pacific:
o Cambodia
o China
o Hong Kong (SARPRC)
o Indonesia
o Japan
o Laos
o Malaysia
o Mongolia
o Myanmar (Burma)
o Thailand
o Vietnam

* South Asia:
o Afghanistan
o India
o Kazakhstan
o Pakistan

* Near East:
o Egypt
o Iraq (H5)
o Iran
o Israel
o Jordan

* Europe & Eurasia:
o Albania
o Austria
o Azerbaijan
o Bosnia & Herzegovina
o Bulgaria
o Croatia
o Czech Republic (H5)
o Denmark
o France
o Georgia
o Germany
o Greece
o Hungary
o Italy
o Poland
o Romania
o Russia
o Serbia & Montenegro
o Slovak Republic
o Slovenia
o Sweden
o Switzerland
o Turkey
o Ukraine
o United Kingdom


For additional information about these reports, visit the
World Organization for Animal Health Web Site.

Updated April 24, 2006

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm

WHO, Avian Flu Timeline in .pdf: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/timeline.pdf

May 5, 2006

Bird Flu Fears Hike Survival Gear Demand
Bird Flu Worries Mean Big Business for Small Disaster Preparedness Shops​

By JIM GRAHAM
The Associated Press

HEBER CITY, Utah - Harry R. Weyandt worries about a deadly flu pandemic reaching the United States for a different reason from most people: It would overwhelm his business.

Nice on the bottom line. Murder on the nerves.

There's no pandemic yet, and bird flu hasn't shown up in North America. But the staff at Weyandt's disaster preparedness store is already scrambling to keep up with demand for everything from freeze-dried foods to first-aid kits.

"What I'm not looking forward to is when they announce the first bird with avian flu is in the country," said Weyandt, owner of Nitro-Pak Preparedness Center Inc. in Heber City, about 35 miles southeast of Salt Lake City. "Because I know what will happen. It'll be crazy here."

Sales of emergency supplies are booming amid growing fears of a virulent global flu. Across the country, suppliers say they're already struggling to keep stock on hand, and it's taking longer to fill orders.

Phyllis Hopkins of Best Prices Storable Foods in Quinlan, Texas, said the business barely had a breather between the Gulf Coast hurricanes last year and bird flu warnings that intensified over the winter.

"We can't keep product in stock," said Hopkins, who runs the business with her husband, Bruce Hopkins. "As soon as it comes in, it goes right off the shelf."

Pandemic panic buying means heady times for such businesses, which are typically family owned and have no more than a handful of employees.

Weyandt said Nitro-Pak's March sales this year were up 600 percent from last year. He wouldn't reveal the company's finances, but said total sales last year were in the "mid-seven figures."

Nitro-Pak's storefront warehouse looks like a cross between a Costco for survivalists and the post office before the Christmas holiday rush. Cardboard crates stacked floor-to-ceiling spill over with long-burning emergency candles, mini-rolls of toilet paper, waterproof matches and freeze-dried foods ranging from eggs with bacon to blueberry cheesecake.

Scurrying between boxes, workers race to fill orders and load them onto heavy pallets that ship out every afternoon.

Even Weyandt's office, a sparsely furnished affair not much bigger than a typical master bedroom, has desks overflowing with backpacks, compasses and space blankets.

A strain of bird flu known as H5N1 has killed millions of chickens and more than 100 people worldwide since 2003, mostly in Asia. While the deaths are blamed on close contact with sick poultry, experts are afraid the virus could mutate to spread easily among people.

If it arrives in North America, even businesses that stand to make a fortune say they're not prepared.

"This industry is so teeny, that if something happens to get everybody in a panic, it can't handle it," said Richard Mankamyer, owner of The Survival Center in McKenna, Wash.

In recent months, federal and state officials have been urging Americans to stock up on emergency supplies.

At Oregon Freeze Dry in Albany, Ore., orders for its No. 10-size cans, which hold eight to 17 servings of food each, have jumped tenfold since the Gulf Coast hurricanes last year, said Melanie Cornutt, assistant manager. The company's Mountain House division is well-known for its line of backpacking foods.

"We've gone through these spikes for 35 years now, but we don't try to keep a huge amount of inventory on hand because it's so hard to predict when the next one will hit," Cornutt said.

In a worst-case scenario, federal officials say a pandemic flu might kill up to 2 million Americans and keep up to 40 percent of the work force at home for several weeks.

Still, industry veterans said the flu frenzy is nothing like the preparedness industry saw leading up to Y2K worries, when people feared computer systems would crash when Jan. 1, 2000, arrived.

In 1999, Nitro-Pak's staff grew to 80, working in a 44,000-square-foot warehouse, Weyandt said. Today, Nitro-Pak employs 12 people full-time in a 10,000-square-foot warehouse.

Among the company's biggest sellers now is a 72-hour survival kit for two. The "executive" model, for $135.99, fits in a small backpack and is loaded with three dozen items, including high-energy foods, water pouches, a radio, a tent, space blanket, pocket knife and even a deck of playing cards.

Utah residents may be better prepared for emergencies, Weyandt said, because the Mormon church the state's dominant religion encourages members to stock up with food and water in case of disaster. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints calls the practice "provident living."

Industry veterans said many startup companies got into the preparedness business before Y2K, only to fold when no a crisis materialized. Similar boom-and-bust cycles followed the Sept. 11 terror attacks, California earthquakes and hurricanes in the South.

On the Net:

Utah Department of Health flu information: http://www.pandemicflu.utah.gov

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services flu information: http://www.pandemicflu.gov

World Health Organization's flu information: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/en/

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=1923419&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312

Cornell Bird Experts Monitor for Early Detection of Avian Flu​

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aB9cTlSUjd1o&refer=asia



May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Bird experts from Cornell University plan to test thousands of samples from different species in an early detection program for the avian flu virus, which has killed more than 200 people, mostly in Asia.

Cornell ornithologists are undertaking the research to understand and track the disease and to relay accurate information about avian influenza strains, the Ithaca, New York- based university said in an e-mailed statement yesterday.

``Nobody knows which species of birds are capable of flying thousands of miles across the ocean after contracting the disease,'' the Cornell release said. ``A government task force has its eye on Alaska, where about 30 species of migratory birds, including Arctic warblers and yellow wagtails, will breed this spring after wintering in Asia.''

Diseased birds raise the risk to humans and create opportunities for the flu virus to change into a pandemic form such as the worldwide scourge in 1918 that killed as many as 50 million people.

Human infections are rising after more than 30 countries across three continents reported initial outbreaks in animals this year, moving the globe closer to what the World Health Organization describes as humanity's most serious health challenge.

The H5N1 virus has killed at least 114 of 206 people infected since late 2003, the Geneva-based WHO said yesterday. Seasonal flu usually kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people worldwide, according to the agency. Most deaths from seasonal flu in developed countries occur in people over age 65.

Unpredictable Events

For the lethal H5N1 strain of avian flu to establish itself on U.S. soil via wild birds, several events must come together, none of which can be predicted, the university said.

``While H5N1 infection is rare in humans, it quickly kills half of those infected,'' Cornell said. ``In poultry, the highly pathogenic virus can be extremely deadly, killing more than 90 percent of infected birds within 48 hours. But many wild birds, especially certain waterfowl, can carry the deadly virus in their intestines with few symptoms.''

Some bird experts have said wild birds from Asia, where the disease is widespread among free-flying birds and where the majority of human fatalities have occurred, will bring the highly pathogenic H5N1 virus to the U.S., possibly this year.

It is ``highly unlikely'' that a bird would fly from Asia to Alaska and then to the lower 48 states, Cornell said.

``The fear, however, is that later this summer an infected bird from Asia could mingle with birds from the lower 48 states and Central and South America that also breed in Alaska, like snow geese, common eiders and tundra swans,'' it said. ``If that were to occur, a bird could return to the lower 48 states with the deadly virus and hypothetically infect other birds.''

Bird migration follows broad pathways rather than narrow streets, and birds regularly get lost.

Pacific Coast

``Birds from Asia that breed in Alaska could be found elsewhere, such as along the U.S. Pacific coast,'' the university said. ``But even if an infected bird landed in the lower 48 states, the poultry industry is probably safe.''

The H5N1 virus is reported to have infected birds in 34 countries across three continents this year. In Asia, almost 200 million domestic fowl have died or been culled to contain the spread of H5N1, costing countries more than $10 billion, the World Bank said in January.

``If avian flu were to show up in U.S. poultry, migratory birds are probably the least likely source of infection,'' said Ken Rosenberg, director of conservation science at the Cornell Lab of Ornithology.

Highly pathogenic H5N1 appears to have mostly spread in Asia through unregulated movement, trade and handling of infected poultry, the university said.

``It's a whole lot easier to see someone smuggling an infected gamecock or parrot into the U.S. through Mexico or Canada,'' said Kevin McGowan, a research associate at the lab.

While the researchers are less concerned about avian flu affecting humans or domestic poultry, they point out that the virulence of the H5N1 virus creates a real danger to threatened or endangered bird species.

``Whooping cranes and such species related to poultry as prairie chickens, grouse and quail are all in trouble and could be some of the most susceptible species to the highly pathogenic avian flu,'' Cornell said.

Bird Flu Expert Warns The World's Not Ready For Pandemic​

http://framehosting.dowjonesnews.com/sample/samplestory.asp?StoryID=2006050500260035&Take=1

Dow Jones Newswires

SINGAPORE (AP)--A leading bird flu expert says H5N1 is the worst flu virus he's ever encountered, and that far too many gaps in planning and knowledge persist for the world to handle it in the event of a pandemic.

The virus is a virulent killer in poultry, moving into the brain and destroying the respiratory tract, said Robert G. Webster, a virologist at the St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee.

"I've worked with flu all my life, and this is the worst influenza virus that I have ever seen," said Webster, who has studied bird flu for decades. "If that happens in humans, God help us."

So far, most human cases have been linked to contact with infected birds, but experts fear the virus will mutate into a form that easily spreads from person to person, potentially sparking a global pandemic.

Webster predicted it would take at least 10 more mutations before the H5N1 virus could begin spreading between people, but said there's no way to know when - or if - that will ever happen.

"All of those mutations are out there, but ... the virus hasn't succeeded in bringing it together," he said at the end of a two-day bird flu conference in Singapore organized by The Lancet medical journal.

Webster also called for more vaccine to be stockpiled, calling current efforts "miserable."

He said research in ferrets suggests vaccination with a bird flu virus that had circulated earlier in Hong Kong protected the animals from dying when they were later infected with the H5N1 virus now spreading in Vietnam. Such vaccination could potentially be used as a primer to prepare humans for a pandemic flu strain, he said.

Webster said much more research is needed to understand the virus' behavior and how it is spread. Research is being hindered, he said, by cultural issues preventing autopsies of victims. In many Asian countries, where most of the human deaths have occurred, many people do not believe in disturbing the body after death.

He said autopsies have been done on only six of the 113 people killed by bird flu since the virus began ravaging Asian poultry stocks in late 2003.

"The cultural ban in this region on autopsies has to be worked out somehow," Webster said. "Tissues have to be taken from cadavers to understand the biology of these viruses."

Dr. Frederick G. Hayden, a University of Virginia virus expert, said more research also is needed for antiviral drugs.

Hayden is collaborating on the first controlled clinical study looking at the effectiveness of Tamiflu in people infected with H5N1. It will examine how adults and children in Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia respond to standard doses of Tamiflu currently recommended for annual seasonal flu versus higher doses.

Countries worldwide have been racing to stockpile Tamiflu in case of a pandemic. But little is known about drug resistance and how much Tamiflu should be given to an infected person.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

the 1918 flu was an entirely birdlike flu that adapted to humans

Bird flu could mirror deadly 1918 disease​

BY DELTHIA RICKS
Newsday Staff Writer

May 6, 2006

Reaching into history hoping to better understand the future, two research teams have reconstructed the devastating 1918 flu virus, discovering it was of avian origin and effectively jumped from birds to humans.

The scientific finding is virtually the same scenario feared by global health officials who are keeping an eye on the growing number of bird flu cases in Southeast Asia.

There, 116 people have contracted the infection -- probably from direct contact with fowl -- and nearly half of those sickened since late 2003 have died. If the virus changes genetically to allow easy transmission from person to person, scientists predict bird flu could become a replay of the 1918 global pandemic that killed at least 50 million people. No continent was left unscathed.

Trekking into the permafrost region of Alaska to unearth the remains of an Inuit Indian woman who died of the so-called Spanish flu, researchers in 1997 gathered tissue to retrieve fragments of the killer virus.

The sample was compared with those preserved by the U.S. military from World War I soldiers who died of the infection. Such protein snippets provided enough biological information for scientists to genetically engineer the pathogen in the lab, resurrecting a killer that mysteriously rose in September 1918 and just as mystifyingly vanished -- though not forever -- a year later.

"The main goals of the work were to understand why the 1918 flu was so deadly," said Dr. Christopher Basler, assistant professor of microbiology at Mount Sinai School of Medicine in Manhattan. Basler and colleagues used the samples' blueprint to begin re-creating the pathogen that infected one in four in the United States and killed about 550,000 nationwide.

Known as H1N1, the virus that caused the 1918 flu still exists in the form of third and fourth cousin subtypes that are not nearly as infectious. Basler said the high degree of virulence 87 years ago stemmed from a lack of human immunity to this early form.

Working with Drs. Adolfo Garcia-Sastre and Peter Palese of Mount Sinai, Basler created "plasmids," a necklace-like arrangement of genes. The scientists then shipped the plasmids to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention where the plasmids were insinuated into human lung cells. Within days they emerged as fullblown replicas of the 1918 virus.

"We performed this work under high-containment conditions," said Dr. Terrence Tumpey, who led the final steps of reconstruction.

The viral re-creation was announced Friday and is detailed in the journal Science. Completion of the genetic sequencing is reported in today's journal Nature.

Dr. Jeffrey Taubenberger, chief of molecular pathology at the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology in suburban Washington, began the quest for the 1918 killer. He traveled to Brevig Mission on the Seward Peninsula in Alaska nearly a decade ago to gather evidence, preserved in the permafrost.

"One of the important things we've found so far is that the 1918 flu was an entirely birdlike flu that adapted to humans. It is different from the 1957 and 1968 pandemics, which were a mix of human and bird viruses."

Neither the 1957 Asian flu nor the 1968 Hong Kong flu was nearly as deadly as the 1918 strain, which was particularly lethal in young, healthy adults.

Taubenberger said both teams' studies reveal that today's bird flu and the infection of 87 years ago share many of the same genetic features.

Resurrecting a viral killer from the past is not new to science. In July 2002 a team of scientists at Stony Brook University announced they had created a polio virus from scratch.

http://story.irishsun.com/p.x/ct/9/id/acee96d11094fd3b/cid/2411cd3571b4f088/

Post #2 said:

May 5, 2006

Bird Flu Fears Hike Survival Gear Demand
Bird Flu Worries Mean Big Business for Small Disaster Preparedness Shops​

By JIM GRAHAM
The Associated Press

HEBER CITY, Utah - Harry R. Weyandt worries about a deadly flu pandemic reaching the United States for a different reason from most people: It would overwhelm his business.

Click to expand...

There is a discussion of this article in this thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=196290

Only half of human bird flu cases reported: WHO​

Saturday May 6 2006 17:39 IST

AP

DANANG, VIETNAM: Only half of the human bird flu cases detected by countries are being reported to the world health organisation within two weeks, a response time that must be improved to head off a potential flu pandemic, a senior WHO official said on Saturday.

Dr Shigeru Omi, the WHO's regional director for the western Pacific, said it's estimated that two to three weeks is all countries would have to stamp out or at least slow a pandemic flu strain after it began spreading. He said the first move would be to identify cluster cases and report them to WHO.

International teams would then be deployed to investigate the site, the area would be quarantined and antiviral treatment would be given. “All the steps have to be done within two to three weeks. As of now... Even reporting the first step, it takes sometimes more than two weeks for half of the cases,” Omi said at the end of an Asia-Pacific meeting on bird flu in central Vietnam.

“There's a lot of challenges.” Omi said political commitment is now strong at National levels across the region, but weaknesses still exist in getting the message all the way down to villages.

He said that ordinary people would understand what to do if they see a number of people or poultry coming down sick at once. Omi attended a meeting with agriculture and health ministers representing the 21-member Asia-Pacific economic cooperation. They endorsed a plan aimed at stamping out bird flu and preparing for a potential flu pandemic on Friday.

http://www.newindpress.com/NewsItem...&Title=Features+-+Health+&+Science&Topic=168&

This is from the Department of Defense website :


http://www.defenselink.mil/news/May2006/20060503_5010.html


White House Report Outlines Roles in Flu Pandemic Response
By Donna Miles
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, May 3, 2006 – If a flu pandemic hit the United States, the Defense Department's top priority would be to protect the military's operational readiness so it can play a supporting role to the Homeland Security and State departments, as outlined in a national response plan released today by the White House.

The 227-page Implementation Plan for the National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza provides a road map for marshaling the response, detailing roles and responsibilities for federal departments and agencies. It also sets expectations for state and local governments and nonfederal entities.

The plan includes more than 300 critical actions, many already initiated, to address the avian and pandemic flu threat, Frances Townsend, the president's homeland security adviser, told reporters today.

"I should make it clear from the outset that we do not know whether the bird virus we are seeing overseas will ever become a human virus, and we cannot predict whether a human virus will lead to a pandemic," Townsend said. She noted that the H5N1 virus has infected just 205 people to date, killing 113 of those infected. "However, it is possible that if the virus undergoes genetic changes, it could signal the start of a human epidemic," she said.

And in the event that it does, Townsend said it's critical that people understand and prepare for "the worst-case scenario."

Planning for such a scenario helps ensure a coordinated response to prevent or slow the infection's spread and helps "take the fear out of it so there's not chaos," she said.

Should a pandemic such as the H5N1 bird flu hit the United States, DoD would support the Department of Homeland Security in domestic preparedness and response, consistent with its U.S. national security mission, defense officials said. At the same time, the department would support the State Department in addressing the crisis internationally.

But the department's top priority would be to protect the military's operational readiness by taking care of military forces, civilian personnel, dependents and beneficiaries, according to Air Force Col. Richard Chavez, senior military adviser for civil support.

To ensure it's able to do that, DoD has established stockpiles of vaccines to keep servicemembers healthy and able to protect the country. This stockpile includes about 2.7 million doses of H5N1 avian influence vaccine and 2.4 million treatment courses of anti-virals.

The department is also developing systems for inpatient and outpatient disease surveillance at its institutions worldwide, according to Ellen Embrey, deputy assistant secretary for health protection and readiness.

Protecting the force and maintaining essential functions and services would ensure the military is able to use its people and resources to support the overall response, Chavez said.

For example, military planes might be requested to transport critical resources, officials said. The department's medical surveillance and laboratory testing facilities could be tapped. Military forces might be asked to provide security as pharmaceuticals are transported and distributed. Military medical staffs might provide critical patient care. National Guard troops would likely help keep the peace.

Recognizing their potential role, U.S. European Command, U.S. Northern Command and U.S. Pacific Command have already sponsored pandemic influence response exercises, Chavez said.

In his preface to the plan, President Bush said a U.S. response to a flu pandemic will require the participation and coordination of all levels of government and segments and society.

"Our nation will face this global threat united in purpose and united in action in order to best protect our families, our communities, our nation and our world from the threat of pandemic influenza," he wrote.

Doctors say we do have flu problem​

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2091-2168682,00.html

Dearbhail McDonald
SENIOR public health doctors have written to the The Lancet disputing its claim that Ireland is well prepared to cope with an outbreak of pandemic bird flu.

Last month the British medical journal published a survey stating Ireland’s emergency plan for dealing with bird flu was among the best in Europe. Ireland topped the poll, with 70 out of a possible 80 points, in a study conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. The European average was 54.

Irish health authorities were understandably proud.The study was welcomed by the Health Service Executive (HSE), which is in charge of preparations and has drawn up 100 implementation actions in the event of an outbreak.

But in an act that might be regarded as unpatriotic, the findings have been rejected by the public health doctors’ committee of the Irish Medical Organisation (IMO), which last week wrote to The Lancet pointing out flaws in Ireland’s bird flu strategy.

“Paper plans and plans in practice are two entirely different matters,” said Christine O’Malley, president of the IMO, who claims Ireland is as unprepared for a bird flu outbreak as it was for Sars three years ago.

“We don’t actually know what the government’s plans are as they have not been tested. We have no plans in place if bird flu hits after office hours or at the weekend because we have no 24-hour system or doctors on call. Our hospitals are already in crisis, with people stranded on trolleys for days waiting for treatment. If the hospital system can’t cope now, what chance do we stand during a pandemic?”

If published by The Lancet, the letter will embarrass the government, which has been in a 10-year dispute with public health doctors. Because of the dispute, over pay and conditions, Ireland has no 24-hour system to protect against outbreaks of disease such as Sars or biological terrorism.

“Plans are irrelevant if they don’t work in practice,” said Richard Coker of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who led the study of 21 countries.

“If a pandemic is as bad as predicted, health services have to respond very quickly. Sars was just a dry run. That virus was more easily controlled because the incubation period was longer, but with pandemic flu you don’t have as much time to put your plans into action. Public health officials are critical to these plans.”

Coker analysed pandemic flu plans of 25 EU member states, as well as Bulgaria, Romania, Norway and Switzerland. They were assessed by reference to planning and co-ordination, surveillance, public health interventions, health system responses, maintenance of essential services, communication and putting plans into action. National scores ranged from 24 points to 80.

Although Ireland scored well in key areas, it was awarded only 35 points for its plans for maintaining essential services once an outbreak hits. Ireland also scored less than 40 for public health interventions.

Two years ago, serious weaknesses in Ireland’s plans to combat a flu outbreak were exposed when Irish holidaymakers suspected of catching avian flu in Beijing were allowed to leave Dublin airport without being assessed. No public health officials were available because the flight landed on a weekend.

Global Spread of Qinghai H5N1 Bird Flu By Migratory Birds​

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05060601/H5N1_Qinghai_Global.html

Recombinomics Commentary
May 6, 2006

Trade in animals, both legal and illegal, is a more likely culprit in spreading bird flu than wild migrating birds, some of the world's top wild bird experts said yesterday.

"Wild bird monitoring is important, but the real threat comes from trade in poultry," John Flicker, the National Audubon Society's president, said after a Capitol Hill briefing.

Aklthough the above comments by wildlife conservation groups have been repeated often, the data clearly shows that H5N1 evolution, transport, and transmission is firmly tied to migratory birds.

Some of the initial data came from sequences of H5N1 in Hong Kong in 2002 and 2003. H5N1 isolates contained sequences that represented recombination between the prior prevalent strains in Hong Kong, but the sequences also had novel polymorphisms not previously seen in the local poultry outbreaks. The introduction of the new sequences was most easily explained by import via migratory birds, which were also H5N1 positive and contained the new sequences.

Recently, new data became available when sequences from wild birds in North America were made public. The sequences were from low pathogenic isolates from mallards in the 1970’s. Many of the sequences from those birds are present in contemporary H5N1 isolates.

The two data sets above however require sequence analysis and recombination. The processes are not well understood by many, so the controversy over the role of migratory birds continued until the Qinghai Lake outbreak, which happened almost exactly one year ago.

On May 9, 2005, China reported 178 dead bar-headed geese at Qinghai Lake. Although involvement of H5N1 was initially denied, China filed an OIE report on May 21 which described H5N1 infections in 519 dead waterfowl. Most of the dead birds were bar-headed geese and the die-off of waterfowl from H5N1 was without precedent. Waterfowl are usually resistant to H5N1 infections and prior isolation of H5N1 in bar-headed geese had not been previously reported. Lab studies showed that the H5N1 was particularly lethal to chickens, killing them within 20 hours. Similarly, experimental mice died 3-4 days after infection.

The large number of dead birds at Qinghai Lake raised the possibility that the H5N1 would burn itself out. Some had suggested that “dead birds don’t fly” and the H5N1 would not extend beyond Qinghai Lake. However, a few weeks later there were H5N1 infections reported in Xinjiang province on poultry farms. Ducks were dying, suggesting that the Qinghai strain was responsible. Since many birds migrate from Qinghai Lake in China in the spring to Chany Lake in Russia in the summer, the dead ducks in western China suggested that the Qinghai strain was migrating to Chany Lake in southern Siberia.

This was confirmed in mid-July when dead birds on farms surrounding Chany Lake were tested. These birds also involved ducks and geese and also were H5N1 positive as were birds in adjacent Kazakhstan. Similarly wild birds at the remote Erhel Lake in Mongolia were also dying and were also H5N1 positive.

In early July sequences from H5N1 from the dead birds at Qinghai Lake were published. Although the sequences were easily distinguished from the H5N1 in earlier outbreaks in China and countries to the east and southeast of China, the H5N1 was highly pathogenic and shared many of the features found in the earlier sequences. However, the Qinghai sequence also had genetic information which was shared with isolates from Europe and had a novel polymorphism, PB2 E627K, which had never been previously reported in a bird H5N1 isolate. E627K was in all H1, H2, and H3 human isolates and in H5N1 from mammals such as mice, cats, and humans, but not birds. All 16 Qinghai bird isolates had E627K which was linked to increased polymerase activity at lower temperature and a poor prognosis for infected mammals.

The Qinghai strain provided a convenient marker for the spread of H5N1. It was easily distinguished from early H5N1 and the Asian version of H5N1 had never been reported in countries to the west or north or China. Thus, when H5N1 was reported in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, there was little doubt that the infections were due to migratory birds. Sequence analysis of the H5N1 in those countries also confirmed that the H5N1 was the Qinghai strain.

Although H5N1 had been circulating in China since 1996, when it was detected in a goose in Guangdong, it had not been reported in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, countries that share a border with China. Instead, H5N1 spread to the east and southeast when countries reported H5N1 in 2004. That spread of H5N1 was also without precedent, yet there were no reports of H5N1 elsewhere in the world.

Finding H5N1 in long range migratory birds at nature reserves in southern Russia and Mongolia raised the strong possibility that H5N1 would dramatically increase in geographical range because long range migratory birds like the bar-headed geese could fly 1000 miles in 24 hours and Chany Lake was at the intersection of several major flyways connecting Russia to the Indian sub continent, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and North America.

The spread of H5N1 by migratory birds was confirmed again when reports of H5N1 in dead swans in the Volga Delta and Danube Delta began to appear in late summer and early fall. These areas were know for their abundance of wild waterfowl and were in migratory pathways that included Chany Lake. Analysis of the H5N1 in these wild bird reserves also confirmed that the H5N1 was the Qinghai strain. Additional outbreaks were reported in the fall in Turkey, Croatia, and the Ukraine. None of these countries had previously reported H5N1 infections. H5N1 then was reported in many EU countries throughout Europe. Additional reports came from the Middle East and followed by outbreaks in Africa. All of the isolates were the Qinghai strain of H5N1.

The OIE Mission report from Russia identified over two dozen species of wild birds that were H5N1 positives. These birds were shot from the sky by hunters and were asymptomatic. Additional species have been identified in Europe, indicating that H5N1 infections were widespread and in both migratory and resident wild birds.

The spread of H5N1 at the end of 2005 and beginning of 2006 was without precedent. The infections to the north and west of China were accompanies by human cases in Turkey, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Jordan, and Egypt. All reported isolates from these countries have been the Qinghai strain.

Thus, although H5N1 has been circulating in China since 1996 and dramatically spread into adjacent countries in 2003 and 2004, there were no reported cases elsewhere until H5N1 was transported and transmitted by migratory bird.

Although trade and snuggling of H5N1 infected can extend the H5N1 reach such mechanisms failed to increase H5N1 to reportable levels outside of eastern Asia. This migration of the Qinghai strain of H5N1 dramatically changed the reported cases of H5n1 infections, which have now been reported in the Indian sub-continent, Europe, the Middle East and Africa. Reported H5N1 infections in North America are expect this summer or fall. Recent reports of H5N1 in bar headed geese in remote locations in Gangcha and Yushu countries in Qinghai Province indicate a new cycle of H5N1 transmissions has begun.

The main source of H5N1 worldwide expansion is without question, regardless of how many wild bird experts say otherwise.

Bird flu antibodies found in wild goose in Arkhangelsk region​

http://www.interfax.ru/e/B/politics/28.html?id_issue=11511963

ARKHANGELSK. May 6 (Interfax) - H5 bird flu antibodies have been found in the blood of a wild goose shot for testing outside Arkhangelsk, Nikolai Yuferev, the chief expert from the Arkhangelsk regional veterinary department, told Interfax.

The find indicates that either the goose had contact with a sick bird or was sick itself, Yuferev said. "It would be premature to make conclusions from this single fact," he said. The combination of H5 and N1 antibodies are dangerous to humans, but the laboratory equipment in Arkhangelsk is inadequate for more specific tests, Yuferev said. The amount of samples provided to the laboratory was insufficient for comprehensive tests, he said. The heads of local governments in Severodvinsk and the Nyandoma district have been notified about the bird flu antibodies in the goose.

New test shootings of wild birds will be held in the near future. The hunting season in the Arkhangelsk region opens on May 7.

H5 Antibodies in Wild Goose in Northwest Russia
​

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/05060602/H5_NW_Russia.html

Recombinomics Commentary
May 6, 2006

H5 bird flu antibodies have been found in the blood of a wild goose shot for testing outside Arkhangelsk, Nikolai Yuferev, the chief expert from the Arkhangelsk regional veterinary department, told Interfax.

The finding of H5 antibodies in northwestern Russia is cause for concern. Although the antibodies could be from low pathogenic avian influenza, the likelihood that it is the Qinghai strain of H5N1 is high. Last year Russia's OIE Mission report described 24 species (wild duck, laughing gull, rook, northern stover, crow, pigeon, sandpiper, oyster catcher, little grebe. black-winged stilt, phalatrope, little tern, pied wagtail, green sandpiper, white headed plover, starling, coot, mallard sparrow hawk, buzzard, turtle dove, garganey, teal) that had H5N1. These birds had also been shot out of the sky by hunters and demonstrated widespread H5N1 in Russia. The report also indicate that testing in sparsely populated regions had been limited, and the H5N1 infections were more common than indicated in the report.

The recent report of H5N1 in two counties in Qinghai province in China also raised the possibility that H5N1 is again migrating to the north. Arkhangelsk is in the East Atlantic Flyway, which connects Russia to North America, as well as western Europe and western Africa. The Qinghai stain of H5N1 has recently been reported in wild geese in both of these regions, further suggesting that the Russia result was linked to H5N1.

The latest data suggests that H5N1 will soon be detected in North America, adding to the global reach of H5N1.

Another View: Bird flu and Oregon​

An editorial from The Oregonian, Portland, May 5

The Associated Press

May 7, 2006

:Oregon’s public health system runs like a car with the fuel gauge near empty. Among the 50 states, we rank near the bottom — 43rd — in state funding for public health services.

So you can understand Dr. Susan Allan’s frustration with the Bush administration’s plan for an influenza pandemic. It basically tells her and all other Oregonians: “If you folks out there get hit by the flu in a big way, don’t count on Uncle Sam for much meaningful help.”

Allan, Oregon’s public health director, correctly says the $7.1 billion federal plan has been fundamentally flawed since President Bush unveiled it last November. Most of those billions are being misspent on the stockpiling of antiviral drugs and vaccines that doctors say will be of marginal value if the avian flu, or another virus, mutates into a virulent strain that spreads among humans.

This showy buildup “has political cachet,” Allan says, but it’s misdirected. It would be far more effective to put more of that money into quickly developing vaccines designed specifically for a real outbreak — and into beefing up the local health agencies that will have to respond to that outbreak.

Wednesday, the Bush administration released the second part of its flu plan, a 227-page document that makes it clearer than ever that local governments and hospitals will bear the brunt of any deadly outbreak of disease. Logistically, it’s hard to argue with that reality, but where is the federal aid to cash-strapped states like Oregon?

Out of the $7.1 billion initiative, only $100 million is pegged for state and local preparations.

“This is the mother of all unfunded mandates,” noted Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University.
Oregon health departments are “already stretched thin,” says Allan, yet the federal plan expects the state to shoulder all disease detection and response in a pandemic, as well as distribute vaccine and antiviral drugs.

“They’re creating this massive stockpile without providing a way to deliver it,” she says.

That’s a disconnect made worse by the conclusion — shared by health professionals from coast to coast — that the stockpiling is mostly political grandstanding. Those millions of stored vaccine doses target viruses that are “not the ones that are going to make us sick,” Allan says.

And those millions of stockpiled Tamiflu antiviral capsules, which reduce flu symptoms by a mere day and a half, are of “comparative marginal value,” she says.

If a pandemic hits Oregon, health workers will get sick, too. Given that reality, there’s something galling about a mandate that already-understaffed local agencies will have to shoulder the flu fight by themselves and deliver federally stockpiled drugs that may not be terribly effective.

Part of the federal plan makes good sense. That includes Thursday’s awarding of more than $1 billion to drug manufacturers developing technology for speedier mass production of vaccines.

Those efforts, however, should be receiving much greater emphasis than the questionable stockpiling programs. And so should the financial needs of state and local health agencies that will be doing all the heavy lifting when a pandemic occurs.

http://www.statesmanjournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060507/OPINION/60505009/1048

Link to tomorrows (5/8) Bird Flu thread: http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?t=196597

PCViking said:

May 5, 2006

Bird Flu Fears Hike Survival Gear Demand
Bird Flu Worries Mean Big Business for Small Disaster Preparedness Shops​

By JIM GRAHAM
The Associated Press

HEBER CITY, Utah - Harry R. Weyandt worries about a deadly flu pandemic reaching the United States for a different reason from most people: It would overwhelm his business.

Nice on the bottom line. Murder on the nerves.

There's no pandemic yet, and bird flu hasn't shown up in North America. But the staff at Weyandt's disaster preparedness store is already scrambling to keep up with demand for everything from freeze-dried foods to first-aid kits.

"What I'm not looking forward to is when they announce the first bird with avian flu is in the country," said Weyandt, owner of Nitro-Pak Preparedness Center Inc. in Heber City, about 35 miles southeast of Salt Lake City. "Because I know what will happen. It'll be crazy here."

Sales of emergency supplies are booming amid growing fears of a virulent global flu. Across the country, suppliers say they're already struggling to keep stock on hand, and it's taking longer to fill orders.

Phyllis Hopkins of Best Prices Storable Foods in Quinlan, Texas, said the business barely had a breather between the Gulf Coast hurricanes last year and bird flu warnings that intensified over the winter.

"We can't keep product in stock," said Hopkins, who runs the business with her husband, Bruce Hopkins. "As soon as it comes in, it goes right off the shelf."

Pandemic panic buying means heady times for such businesses, which are typically family owned and have no more than a handful of employees.

Weyandt said Nitro-Pak's March sales this year were up 600 percent from last year. He wouldn't reveal the company's finances, but said total sales last year were in the "mid-seven figures."

Nitro-Pak's storefront warehouse looks like a cross between a Costco for survivalists and the post office before the Christmas holiday rush. Cardboard crates stacked floor-to-ceiling spill over with long-burning emergency candles, mini-rolls of toilet paper, waterproof matches and freeze-dried foods ranging from eggs with bacon to blueberry cheesecake.

Scurrying between boxes, workers race to fill orders and load them onto heavy pallets that ship out every afternoon.

Even Weyandt's office, a sparsely furnished affair not much bigger than a typical master bedroom, has desks overflowing with backpacks, compasses and space blankets.

A strain of bird flu known as H5N1 has killed millions of chickens and more than 100 people worldwide since 2003, mostly in Asia. While the deaths are blamed on close contact with sick poultry, experts are afraid the virus could mutate to spread easily among people.

If it arrives in North America, even businesses that stand to make a fortune say they're not prepared.

"This industry is so teeny, that if something happens to get everybody in a panic, it can't handle it," said Richard Mankamyer, owner of The Survival Center in McKenna, Wash.

In recent months, federal and state officials have been urging Americans to stock up on emergency supplies.

At Oregon Freeze Dry in Albany, Ore., orders for its No. 10-size cans, which hold eight to 17 servings of food each, have jumped tenfold since the Gulf Coast hurricanes last year, said Melanie Cornutt, assistant manager. The company's Mountain House division is well-known for its line of backpacking foods.

"We've gone through these spikes for 35 years now, but we don't try to keep a huge amount of inventory on hand because it's so hard to predict when the next one will hit," Cornutt said.

In a worst-case scenario, federal officials say a pandemic flu might kill up to 2 million Americans and keep up to 40 percent of the work force at home for several weeks.

Still, industry veterans said the flu frenzy is nothing like the preparedness industry saw leading up to Y2K worries, when people feared computer systems would crash when Jan. 1, 2000, arrived.

In 1999, Nitro-Pak's staff grew to 80, working in a 44,000-square-foot warehouse, Weyandt said. Today, Nitro-Pak employs 12 people full-time in a 10,000-square-foot warehouse.

Among the company's biggest sellers now is a 72-hour survival kit for two. The "executive" model, for $135.99, fits in a small backpack and is loaded with three dozen items, including high-energy foods, water pouches, a radio, a tent, space blanket, pocket knife and even a deck of playing cards.

Utah residents may be better prepared for emergencies, Weyandt said, because the Mormon church the state's dominant religion encourages members to stock up with food and water in case of disaster. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints calls the practice "provident living."

Industry veterans said many startup companies got into the preparedness business before Y2K, only to fold when no a crisis materialized. Similar boom-and-bust cycles followed the Sept. 11 terror attacks, California earthquakes and hurricanes in the South.

On the Net:

Utah Department of Health flu information: http://www.pandemicflu.utah.gov

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services flu information: http://www.pandemicflu.gov

World Health Organization's flu information: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/en/

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory?id=1923419&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312

Click to expand...

This article by Mr. Graham should be cross-posted onto JC Refuge threads about the Mountain House orders.

I buy from Nitro-Pak too. This information should be a heads up to people..

It is like said in the article. It is a "teeny industry". If people don't get while the gettin is good....then when the crunch comes the industry simply cannot keep up.....demand far far exceeding supply. We have already seen a taste of this just went JC Refuge got so many orders for Mountain House.....and this is normal times.

OOPS....I see this was already brought to JC Refuge's attention in the link in reply #6