U.S. bird flu study predicts millions of deaths, billions in losses
Planners expect many would have to be treated at home -- other studies more dire
- Erin Allday, Chronicle Staff Writer
Thursday, May 4, 2006
A third of Americans could become ill and overburdened hospitals might have to set up clinics in hotels and other public buildings to handle the sickened masses if a flu pandemic hits the United States.
Schools and churches might close. Air travel would be limited to emergencies only. Parents could temporarily lose their day care.
If the avian flu turns into a global epidemic, it could disable the U.S. economy, resulting in a loss of $600 billion of national income.
These scenarios, which at least one public health expert said aren't even the worst case, are part of a detailed, 234-page report released Wednesday by the Bush administration.
"This plan goes much deeper in identifying more specifically what needs to happen in a pandemic, in just about every area you could think of, from human health to animal health to infrastructure," said Jeff Levi, executive director of Trust for America's Health, a Washington, D.C., advocacy group that follows government disaster prepare plans.
"I think it is a further demonstration of how serious the government is taking a potential pandemic. It's an unprecedented level of detail in terms of its planning and performance."
The report cites avian flu, the dreaded H5N1 strain that is carried by birds and has infected 205 people worldwide, as a potential source for the next pandemic, although it has yet to mutate into a form that can be spread from person to person. The report warns that even if the avian flu never becomes a global health threat, "another novel influenza virus will emerge ... and threaten an unsuspecting human population."
Based on records from the last major pandemic, in 1918, the report projects that a modern flu pandemic could infect 30 percent of the global population -- and up to 40 percent of children in schools -- and kill up to 2 percent of those sickened. In the United States, that would mean up to 2 million deaths.
The report calls for stockpiling enough antiviral medication to treat 75 million people in the United States, and for developing a vaccine to immunize 20 million. Creating and distributing those treatments would fall to the federal government -- but most of the burden of health care and containment would fall to state and local governments, which are hastily coming up with their own plans to survive a pandemic.
"This isn't Hurricane Katrina, where it's just in Louisiana, or the Northridge earthquake, where it's just in Los Angeles. It's everywhere at the same time," said George Rutherford, director of the Institute for Global Health in San Francisco. "The federal government won't have the resources to treat everybody."
Health experts said Wednesday that hospitals are likely to have the toughest time keeping up. Every hospital would run out of beds -- possibly in just a couple of weeks. Teaching the public how to care for the sick at home would be crucial, they said.
At Stanford University Medical Center, emergency planners said they could use dorms on the university campus -- where classes would likely be canceled and students sent home -- or nearby hotels as clinics for flu patients.
"Initially, you determine how you can surge within your own institution by increasing patient capacity and decreasing your patient load. And then you look beyond your four walls to developing influenza care facilities," said Eric Weiss, chair of the hospital's disaster preparedness committee. "We'd need to triage people and those who didn't need hospital beds would be cared for at home."
Amy Nichols, director of infection control and hospital epidemiology at UCSF Medical Center, said the hospital has already contacted sources to make sure emergency supplies are packed and ready to be trucked from warehouses in a major outbreak. But with hospital staffs sickened by the flu and a shortage of beds, she, like Weiss, said it will be up to communities to take care of their own.
"I know in many areas the neighborhoods are developing plans for getting organized, so there's a system of identifying who has ill people in their homes," Nichols said.
State public health officials hope to have a detailed strategy for handling a flu epidemic by summer, when it might need further revisions based on the new federal plan, said Mark Horton, chief deputy director of the state Department of Health Services
The health services department has requested funds to buy 270,000 doses of antiviral medication, but with the federal report insisting that communities need enough doses to treat 25 percent of the population, Horton said that number will have to be revised. And he said it would be at least a year before even 270,000 were available.
In the Bay Area, hospitals and public health agencies have been working for months or years on community response plans to a flu epidemic. San Francisco, for instance, hopes to have a complete pandemic flu plan by the end of the year, said Mary Ellen Carroll with the Department of Public Health.
The federal plan released Wednesday suggested that businesses look for ways to keep employees away from each other -- letting people work from home, for example, or creating staggered shifts. People will be encouraged to wear masks, and to voluntarily quarantine themselves if someone in their household is sick.
In a worst-case scenario, Rutherford said, a pandemic would mimic any other natural disaster, only with a protracted time of suffering and recovery.
"Stores might be closed. Gas stations might be closed. If everyone's sick, who will restock the ATM machines with cash? You might not be able to buy stuff like you can now," Rutherford said.
Even borrowing necessary supplies from neighbors might not be an option, he said. Who's going to open their door in the middle of a deadly epidemic?
"If bird flu crosses over to humans, there will be a lot of people sick," Rutherford said. "As the public health measures start to ratchet up, events will be canceled and services closed, and people are going to start staying in their houses. Nothing like that has ever really happened before."
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