Bird flu fears hike survival gear demand

eXe

Techno Junkie
Folks, if you don't have what you need, I would suggest getting it soon.. --eXe

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HEBER CITY, Utah - Harry R. Weyandt worries about a deadly flu pandemic reaching the United States for a different reason from most people: It would overwhelm his business.

Nice on the bottom line. Murder on the nerves.

There's no pandemic yet, and bird flu hasn't shown up in North America. But the staff at Weyandt's disaster preparedness store is already scrambling to keep up with demand for everything from freeze-dried foods to first-aid kits.

"What I'm not looking forward to is when they announce the first bird with avian flu is in the country," said Weyandt, owner of Nitro-Pak Preparedness Center Inc. in Heber City, about 35 miles southeast of Salt Lake City. "Because I know what will happen. It'll be crazy here."

Sales of emergency supplies are booming amid growing fears of a virulent global flu. Across the country, suppliers say they're already struggling to keep stock on hand, and it's taking longer to fill orders.

Phyllis Hopkins of Best Prices Storable Foods in Quinlan, Texas, said the business barely had a breather between the Gulf Coast hurricanes last year and bird flu warnings that intensified over the winter.

"We can't keep product in stock," said Hopkins, who runs the business with her husband, Bruce Hopkins. "As soon as it comes in, it goes right off the shelf."

Pandemic panic buying means heady times for such businesses, which are typically family owned and have no more than a handful of employees.

Weyandt said Nitro-Pak's March sales this year were up 600 percent from last year. He wouldn't reveal the company's finances, but said total sales last year were in the "mid-seven figures."

Nitro-Pak's storefront warehouse looks like a cross between a Costco for survivalists and the post office before the Christmas holiday rush. Cardboard crates stacked floor-to-ceiling spill over with long-burning emergency candles, mini-rolls of toilet paper, waterproof matches and freeze-dried foods ranging from eggs with bacon to blueberry cheesecake.

Scurrying between boxes, workers race to fill orders and load them onto heavy pallets that ship out every afternoon.

Even Weyandt's office, a sparsely furnished affair not much bigger than a typical master bedroom, has desks overflowing with backpacks, compasses and space blankets.

A strain of bird flu known as H5N1 has killed millions of chickens and more than 100 people worldwide since 2003, mostly in Asia. While the deaths are blamed on close contact with sick poultry, experts are afraid the virus could mutate to spread easily among people.

If it arrives in North America, even businesses that stand to make a fortune say they're not prepared.

"This industry is so teeny, that if something happens to get everybody in a panic, it can't handle it," said Richard Mankamyer, owner of The Survival Center in McKenna, Wash.

In recent months, federal and state officials have been urging Americans to stock up on emergency supplies.

At Oregon Freeze Dry in Albany, Ore., orders for its No. 10-size cans, which hold eight to 17 servings of food each, have jumped tenfold since the Gulf Coast hurricanes last year, said Melanie Cornutt, assistant manager. The company's Mountain House division is well-known for its line of backpacking foods.

"We've gone through these spikes for 35 years now, but we don't try to keep a huge amount of inventory on hand because it's so hard to predict when the next one will hit," Cornutt said.

In a worst-case scenario, federal officials say a pandemic flu might kill up to 2 million Americans and keep up to 40 percent of the work force at home for several weeks.

Still, industry veterans said the flu frenzy is nothing like the preparedness industry saw leading up to Y2K worries, when people feared computer systems would crash when Jan. 1, 2000, arrived.

In 1999, Nitro-Pak's staff grew to 80, working in a 44,000-square-foot warehouse, Weyandt said. Today, Nitro-Pak employs 12 people full-time in a 10,000-square-foot warehouse.

Among the company's biggest sellers now is a 72-hour survival kit for two. The "executive" model, for $135.99, fits in a small backpack and is loaded with three dozen items, including high-energy foods, water pouches, a radio, a tent, space blanket, pocket knife and even a deck of playing cards.

Utah residents may be better prepared for emergencies, Weyandt said, because the Mormon church - the state's dominant religion - encourages members to stock up with food and water in case of disaster. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints calls the practice "provident living."

Industry veterans said many startup companies got into the preparedness business before Y2K, only to fold when no a crisis materialized. Similar boom-and-bust cycles followed the Sept. 11 terror attacks, California earthquakes and hurricanes in the South.
 

Safecastle

Emergency Essentials Store
Yep, a 600% increase over last year may even be a conservative estimate.

I didn't see it mentioned here, but current data shows that even though pandemic awareness and concern is much greater, only about 10% of the U.S. population has done anything about it in terms of preparing to date.

Consider the effect that 10% has had on our little industry ... i.e., the Mountain House backlogs, inventory depletions, and similar situations in other prep gear lines, and you get a sense of what it will be like when the next phase of buying reaction occurs.

Will it be another 10% of the population to get their butts in gear? Somehow, I don't think so. Considering what it will take to get to the next segment of the populace, it will likely be a much larger percentage of the population that will of course react with some amount of panic. And yes, that will shut down our supply lines for a long time.
 

Safecastle

Emergency Essentials Store
Claudia said:
I'm surprised the figure is as high as 10%.

The 10% figure, as I recall, was a figure in a national survey that indicated that many folks SAID they had done something in anticipation of a pandemic. You know, like buy a couple extra cans of tuna, and/or get a face mask.

Rest assured, for about 8 of those 10 percent, there's still much that ought to be done.

EDIT: Here's a link to the poll results showing the 10% who have done something to prepare. Actually, the 10% is out of those who are familiar with the Avian Flu. When you bring in all of those who live under rocks and are blind, deaf, and dumb, the figure goes down to 7%.

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/05-04-2006/0004355154&EDATE=
 
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selah

Membership Revoked
just wait until that bird flu movie airs on May 9.. then there is probably going to be a lot more people preparing.
 

Bird Guano

Membership Revoked
selah said:
just wait until that bird flu movie airs on May 9.. then there is probably going to be a lot more people preparing.


They said that about Oprah who reached 10 MILLION soccer mom's with a pretty disturbing program.

Nothing happened.
 

Safecastle

Emergency Essentials Store
Bird Guano said:
They said that about Oprah who reached 10 MILLION soccer mom's with a pretty disturbing program.

Nothing happened.

Don't be so sure nothing happened. I'm not an Oprah fan, but I've been trying to put my finger on what exactly happened in the Jan/Feb/Mar timeframe that caused such a huge surge in demand for Mountain House food and other preps. I had attributed some of it to government buying but I have recently learned that at MH, it was all consumer/distributor buying that wiped them out there.

The Oprah show you mention aired January 24. Something happened in the next couple of months that got all of us in this business very busy to the point of depleting inventories.

Demand remains strong, and I suspect that after May 9 when the movie airs, if it gets wide viewership, it will cause a few more to get with the program.
 

Fuzzychick

Membership Revoked
Bird Guano said:
They said that about Oprah who reached 10 MILLION soccer mom's with a pretty disturbing program.

Nothing happened.

B.G., I'm a soccer mom and a player...please don't gather the shrubs into one flock. Thanx!:D
 

Excursion

Inactive
What is the best way to prepare for the bird flu? What steps do you think needs to be done before it come to the US?
 

Shooting Star

Veteran Member
selah said:
just wait until that bird flu movie airs on May 9.. then there is probably going to be a lot more people preparing.

I agree with you selah - from what I have seen on the previews of this movie, I believe it will be a real eye opener - we'll see in 3 or 4 more days;)
 

dreamseeer

Membership Revoked
cryhavoc said:
Yeah, they'll prep....for about 20 minutes. That's the attention span of the American public.

cryhavoc

Twenty minutes? You give the average sheeple too much credit. I thought the sheeple attention span was only a 7-digit telephone number. :)
 

VesperSparrow

Goin' where the lonely go
A strain of bird flu known as H5N1 has killed millions of chickens and more than 100 people worldwide since 2003, mostly in Asia. While the deaths are blamed on close contact with sick poultry, experts are afraid the virus could mutate to spread easily among people.

Not saying it won't happen.....but considering heart disease kills 300 thousand Americans a year I just guess I am a DGI.

Either this virus is already more serious than what they are claiming OR there is something else going on behind the scenes occuring that will happen so suddenly there won't be any time left to prep at all.
 

Bird Guano

Membership Revoked
VesperSparrow said:
Not saying it won't happen.....but considering heart disease kills 300 thousand Americans a year I just guess I am a DGI.

Either this virus is already more serious than what they are claiming OR there is something else going on behind the scenes occuring that will happen so suddenly there won't be any time left to prep at all.

That's the definition of a Pandemic. It happens suddenly with no time to react, and it will be everywhere at once.

The current computer model shows one WEEK to infect every major airline hub city from first index patient.

Currently H5N1 in the NON-Pandemic strain has a 55% KILL ratio. There are also 3-4 clades or versions co-circulating out there. Any one or ALL of them could turn into a pandemic strain.

The odds are against us. This strain has been mutating since 1997, so it's not new.

See the links below and become educated.

If you don't and it goes pandemic, ignorance just MAY kill you.
 

VesperSparrow

Goin' where the lonely go
As a nurse I think I've pretty much got it covered this end bird guano...

I'm only saying that if this thing were to mutate wouldn't it have done so where the its already killed people and millions of chickens???

I'll go out on a limb though and suspect its something else even though I'll be prepared for anything.
 

okie medicvet

Inactive
selah said:
just wait until that bird flu movie airs on May 9.. then there is probably going to be a lot more people preparing.

thanks for the reminder. I don't usually 'schedule' my tv viewing except for a few favorite shows, but will make a point of seeing this one.
 
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