ECON World Markets Dive: 9/15/08

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
World stock markets sink on Wall Street crisis
By DAVID McHUGH – 4 hours ago

LONDON (AP) — Asian and European stock markets were down sharply Monday amid growing alarm over the world's financial system after a seismic shake-up on Wall Street, with Lehman Brothers saying it would file bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch being sold to Bank of America.

In Europe, the FTSE index was down 2.72 percent in London, the Paris CAC-40 was off 3.52 percent and Germany's DAX 30 index of blue chips sagged 2.99 percent.

The dollar sank against euro, which rose to US$1.4299 from US$1.4215 late Friday in New York. The pount rose against the dollar, to US$1.8052 from US$1.7937.

Asia's biggest stock exchanges in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea were closed for holidays, but every market open was deep in the red. India's Sensex tumbled 5.4 percent, Taiwan's benchmark plummeted 4.1 percent, Australia's key index was down 2 percent and Singapore dropped 2.9 percent.

The declines came as Wall Street and the U.S. government took a series of steps aimed at bringing an end to the credit crisis that has roiled the global financial system for more than a year.

Troubled U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. announced it would file for bankruptcy after prospective buyers, including Barclays PLC, backed away from a deal over the weekend. Also, Bank of American Corp. said in a statement early Monday that it would acquire Merrill Lynch & Co. in an all-stock transaction worth about US$50 billion.

Additionally, giant U.S. insurance company American International Group Inc. said Sunday it was discussing options with outside parties to improve its business. The Wall Street Journal said on its website Sunday that AIG may announce a turnaround plan Monday that would involve selling assets such as its aircraft leasing business.

A global consortium of banks, meanwhile, announced late Sunday a US$70 billion pool of funds to lend to ailing financial companies, a move geared toward preventing a worldwide panic on stock and other financial exchanges. The U.S. Federal Reserve chipped in with more largesse in its emergency lending program for investment banks.

The shake-up was needed to restore confidence in the markets, said Lorraine Tan, director at Standard & Poor's equity research in Singapore.

"A lot of people are getting burned," she said. "It's better to get this out of the system. Hopefully for the U.S. this could be it as far as potential failures of investment banks."

Investors fearful that the financial distress could spread to Asia to sent regional bank stocks plunging.

Macquarie Group Ltd., Australia's largest investment bank, plummeted 9.6 percent. In Taiwan, Shin Kong Financial Holding lost 6.9 percent.

U.S. stock index futures were down sharply, suggesting that shares would drop when trading opened in New York Monday morning. The Dow Jones industrial average futures index was down 2.6 percent.


The dollar was also down sharply, falling to 105.69 yen from 107.92 yen late Friday. The euro jumped to US$1.4432 from US$1.4229 Friday.

Oil fell below $100 a barrel in Asian electronic trading after Hurricane Ike inflicted minimal damage to oil installations on the Texas coast. Light, sweet crude for October delivery declined US$2.10 to US$99.08 a barrel.

On Friday, the contract slipped to US$99.99 per barrel briefly before closing at US$101.18. The last time Nymex crude had traded below the $100 mark was April 2.
 

Dennis Olson

Chief Curmudgeon
_______________
Dow Sinks More Than 300 Points | World Markets Tank

http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/futures-plummet-lehman-bankruptcy-merrill-purchase/#

Monday, September 15, 2008
Dow Skids Close to 200 Points

Matt Egan

The markets were sharply lower but have pared earlier losses as Wall Street continues to deal with the fallout from the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, which was unable to find a white knight during a momentous weekend. Instead, the investment bank was forced to file for bankruptcy protection, causing further stress to the nation's newly reshaped financial system.

At the same time, Wall Street was also coming to grips with the unexpected end of financial giant Merrill Lynch's independence and a $6 plunge in crude oil prices, which could close below $100 a barrel for the first time since March.

Today's Market

As of 11:01 a.m. EDT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 186.37 points, or 1.63% to 11235.29, the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 18.05 points, or 1.44%, to 1233.89 and the Nasdaq Composite slid 20.78 points, or 0.92%, to 2241.32. The FOX 50 dropped 12.24 points, or 1.36%, to 891.98.

The flurry of momentous headlines threatens to push the blue chips below the 11,000 level for the first time since July. The markets have rebounded from the early steep losses, which put the Dow more than 325 points in the red.

“Everybody here is in shock," NYSE trader Alan Valdes of Hilliard Lyons told FOX Business. “For Merrill to be no longer...that’s insane. If the Dow breaks 11,000, it could get uglier, faster.”

AIG (AIG: 6.70, -5.44, -44.81%) lost nearly half of its value during recent trading as the insurer continues to come under fire. Bank of America (BAC: 28.95, -4.79, -14.19%) dove more than 15%. AIG and BofA combined to account for more than 80 points of the selloff on the Dow. JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 41.28, +0.11, +0.26%) and Coca-Cola (KO: 54.89, +0.39, +0.71%) were among a handful of blue-chip stocks that managed to flirt with positive territory.

The $639B Bankruptcy

Wall Street emerged from the weekend in crisis mode and with a completely reshaped financial sector. At the forefront of the crisis is Lehman Brothers (LEH: 0.20, -3.45, -94.53%), which after 158 years in business filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as it becomes the latest victim of the credit crisis. At $639 billion, Lehman's is the largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history -- easily surpassing the collapses of Enron and WorldCom combined.

The demise of the nation's fourth-largest investment bank comes after potential suitors, namely Barclays (BCS: 22.72, -2.46, -9.76%) and Bank of America (BAC: 28.95, -4.79, -14.19%), pulled out of negotiations over the weekend. The federal government resisted calls to offer the same kind of financial assistance it offered when JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 41.28, +0.11, +0.26%) bought Bear Stearns in a fire sale in March.

“The immediate response is this is a worst-case scenario” or very close to one, said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jeffries & Co. “Lehman not being able to find a buyer is startling, if not scary.”

While Lehman filed for bankruptcy protection with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court of the Southern District of New York, the company's broker-dealer subsidiary and other parts of its business were not included in the filing. The bank said its customers may continue to trade while Lehman winds down its business.

Lehman has reported a string of massive quarterly losses tied to the investment bank's bad real estate bets. Unable or unwilling to raise cash, Lehman's stock plunged 77% last week as Wall Street began to predict bank's demise.

To help the surviving banks navigate the end of Lehman Brothers, a group of Wall Street banks created a $70 billion lending program to ease a credit shortage. Each of the ten banks, which include Citigroup (C: 16.97, -0.99, -5.51%) and Goldman Sachs (GS: 147.34, -6.87, -4.45%), committed $7 billion to the pool.

"As awful as Lehman is, it's not enough to bring down the financial system. It's one step closer to cleansing the system but… the collateral damage will continue to cause a lot of pain through next year," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak.

“I think people are realizing there is a fundamental change in the entire U.S. economy with respect to debt... I'm still of the opinion that while we may bounce from today, those July lows are going to be taken out," said Boockvar.

Merrill Lynch

Seeking to avoid Lehman's fate, iconic brokerage house Merrill Lynch (MER: 21.49, +4.44, +26.04%) agreed to sell itself to Bank of America (BAC: 28.95, -4.79, -14.19%) for $29 per share in an all-stock transaction that shocked Wall Street. The deal, which is subject to shareholder and regulatory approval, presently values Merrill at $50 billion.

Merrill has also been slammed by bad bets in the housing market, posting $40 billion in write-downs and credit losses over the past year. The selling price represents a 70% premium from Merrill's close on Friday, though the company's shares plummeted 36% last week to its lowest level in nearly 12 years.

The bears on Wall Street appeared ready to set their sights on Merrill following Lehman's demise. While CEO John Thain was unable to turn Merrill around and allow it to keep its independence, he was able to make sure shareholders weren't left completely empty-handed.

Crude Diving

Mostly overshadowed by the turmoil in the financial sector was oil prices plunging as much as $7 Monday morning, diving solidly below $100 a barrel. Oil prices have rebounded from those lows, recently down $4.65 to $96.53 a barrel.

Oil prices have been in free-fall mode since eclipsing $147 a barrel in early July. Crude has been under assault from fears a global economic slowdown will further weaken demand. Monday's descent was sparked by the apparent lack of major damage to the Gulf Coast's oil apparatus following Hurricane Ike over the weekend. Also, the dollar rose sharply against rivals, helping to push down dollar-traded commodities like crude.

Not surprisingly, energy stocks like Sunoco (SUN: 40.96, -6.89, -14.39%) and Valero (VLO: 32.96, -2.91, -8.11%) fell sharply on Monday. The energy sector declined by 5% as a group. Crude momentarily slipped below $100 a barrel on Friday on a single trade. It was the first intraday trading in the commodity below triple digits since early April.

Insurer in Turmoil

Meanwhile, American International Group (AIG: 6.70, -5.44, -44.81%) hopes to raise an additional $40 billion to avoid a potentially-fatal credit ratings downgrade, The Wall Street Journal reported. AIG, the world's largest insurer, saw its shares lose nearly half their value last week as shareholders became increasingly fearful over the company's heavy exposure to the real estate market. AIG opened 40% lower on Monday.

As part of new a survival plan, AIG hopes to sell assets like its annuities business and ask for help from the Federal Reserve, the Journal reported. AIG reportedly rejected a cash infusion from several private-equity firms due to unfavorable terms.

Treasury prices were sharply higher on Monday, along with gold, as cash heads toward the safety of government-backed bonds and hard commodities. Yields on one-month Treasury bills fell to the lowest level since April.

Corporate Movers

Washington Mutual (WM: 2.23, -0.50, -18.31%) was under heavy pressure as Wall Street wonders how the nation's largest savings-and-loan will survive the financial crisis. WaMu's shares were down nearly 20% in pre-market trading, continuing its steady decent. Analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods predicted WaMu will need to raise up to $5 billion to counter expected credit expenses of $23 billion through 2009. The situation at WaMu comes as CEO Alan Fishman enters his second week after replacing Kerry Killinger.

Fannie Mae (FNM: 0.62, -0.12, -16.22%) and Freddie Mac (FRE: 0.40, -0.06, -13.03%) may not be able to give their chief executives "golden parachutes," the Journal reported. The mortgage giants' regulator told the newspaper such severance payment won't be allowed to be made to Daniel Mudd and Richard Syron due to "applicable statute and regulation." Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which own or back more than $5 trillion of U.S. mortgages, were seized by the government earlier this month due to fears they would run out of cash.
 

Dennis Olson

Chief Curmudgeon
_______________
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,422465,00.html

World Stock Markets Tank on Wall Street Crisis
Monday , September 15, 2008



ADVERTISEMENTLONDON —

Asian and European stock markets were down sharply Monday amid growing alarm over the world's financial system after a seismic shake-up on Wall Street, with Lehman Brothers saying it would file bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch being sold to Bank of America.

In Europe, the FTSE index was down 2.72 percent in London, the Paris CAC-40 was off 3.52 percent and Germany's DAX 30 index of blue chips sagged 2.99 percent.

The dollar sank against euro, which rose to US$1.4299 from US$1.4215 late Friday in New York. The pount rose against the dollar, to US$1.8052 from US$1.7937.

Asia's biggest stock exchanges in Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea were closed for holidays, but every market open was deep in the red. India's Sensex tumbled 5.4 percent, Taiwan's benchmark plummeted 4.1 percent, Australia's key index was down 2 percent and Singapore dropped 2.9 percent.

The declines came as Wall Street and the U.S. government took a series of steps aimed at bringing an end to the credit crisis that has roiled the global financial system for more than a year.

Troubled U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. announced it would file for bankruptcy after prospective buyers, including Barclays PLC, backed away from a deal over the weekend. Also, Bank of American Corp. said in a statement early Monday that it would acquire Merrill Lynch & Co. in an all-stock transaction worth about US$50 billion.

Additionally, giant U.S. insurance company American International Group Inc. said Sunday it was discussing options with outside parties to improve its business. The Wall Street Journal said on its website Sunday that AIG may announce a turnaround plan Monday that would involve selling assets such as its aircraft leasing business.

A global consortium of banks, meanwhile, announced late Sunday a US$70 billion pool of funds to lend to ailing financial companies, a move geared toward preventing a worldwide panic on stock and other financial exchanges. The U.S. Federal Reserve chipped in with more largesse in its emergency lending program for investment banks.

The shake-up was needed to restore confidence in the markets, said Lorraine Tan, director at Standard & Poor's equity research in Singapore.

"A lot of people are getting burned," she said. "It's better to get this out of the system. Hopefully for the U.S. this could be it as far as potential failures of investment banks."

Investors fearful that the financial distress could spread to Asia to sent regional bank stocks plunging.

Macquarie Group Ltd., Australia's largest investment bank, plummeted 9.6 percent. In Taiwan, Shin Kong Financial Holding lost 6.9 percent.

U.S. stock index futures were down sharply, suggesting that shares would drop when trading opened in New York Monday morning. The Dow Jones industrial average futures index was down 2.6 percent.

The dollar was also down sharply, falling to 105.69 yen from 107.92 yen late Friday. The euro jumped to US$1.4432 from US$1.4229 Friday.

Oil fell below $100 a barrel in Asian electronic trading after Hurricane Ike inflicted minimal damage to oil installations on the Texas coast. Light, sweet crude for October delivery declined US$2.10 to US$99.08 a barrel.

On Friday, the contract slipped to US$99.99 per barrel briefly before closing at US$101.18. The last time Nymex crude had traded below the $100 mark was April 2.
 

Martin

Deceased
Tectonic' Market Shift as Lehman Fails, Merrill Sold

By Christine Harper

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- In the biggest reshaping of the financial industry since the Great Depression, two of Wall Street's most storied firms, Merrill Lynch & Co. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., headed toward extinction.

New York-based Lehman, founded 158 years ago, said early today that it filed for bankruptcy protection after failing to find a buyer. Merrill Lynch, 94 years old and also based in New York, agreed to sell itself to Bank of America Corp. for $50 billion in an emergency deal hashed out yesterday.

``The tectonic plates beneath the world financial system are shifting, and there is going to be a new financial world order that will be born of this,'' said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital Group Inc., the Jersey City, New Jersey-based brokerage that handles about $1 trillion worth of stock transactions a quarter. ``It's an ugly and painful process.''

The engines that powered record growth in the financial industry over the past decade -- cheap credit and surging property values -- have been thrust into reverse. Companies that once thrived on making real estate loans and holding assets bought with borrowed money are now under siege, giving the upper hand to those less reliant on leverage and holding the fewest assets tied to property.

Bear, Fannie, Freddie

The industry convulsions that started last year have already eliminated Bear Stearns Cos., forced into a cut-price sale to JPMorgan Chase & Co. with government support in March. A week ago, the U.S. Treasury placed mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorship, guaranteeing their widely held debt securities while all but erasing their equity value.

American International Group Inc., once the world's largest insurer, is struggling to raise cash to avoid a credit-rating downgrade that could cripple its business. AIG shares fell as much as 52 percent in New York Stock Exchange composite trading today and were down $5.49, or 45 percent, to $6.65 at 10:50 a.m.

The five New York-based securities firms that dominated Wall Street have been reduced to two: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley. While both firms are scheduled to report a drop in third-quarter earnings this year, their business has remained profitable throughout 2008 -- unlike Lehman and Merrill. As concerns swirled about their futures, Goldman's stock dropped as much as 7.9 percent and Morgan Stanley's fell as much as 13 percent in New York Stock Exchange composite trading today.

`Ride This Out'

``I think highly of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, so I expect them to ride this out,'' Evercore Partners Inc. Chief Executive Officer Roger Altman, a former deputy Treasury secretary who spent his early career at Lehman, said in an interview on CNBC. ``But as to whether we've seen the last of this crisis, I think the answer to that is clearly no. And exactly where it goes from here and how it unfolds, I'm unsure.''

Lehman, which employed 25,935 people at the end of August in 61 offices around the world, had a balance sheet totaling $786 billion as recently as February. Merrill Lynch, with 60,000 employees, is known for its ``thundering herd'' of financial advisers that brought Wall Street financial products to Main Street investors.

`Vaporized'

``I've been on Wall Street for many years, and I've never seen a weekend like this one,'' said Michael Holland, 64, chairman and founder of New York-based Holland & Co. ``We are unwinding what has been years of silliness in the financial markets, and the silliness is being vaporized as we speak, unfortunately with the stock price of a number of companies involved in it.''

To help cushion the fallout, 10 banks created a $70 billion fund to lend to firms that are having trouble financing their assets in the markets. The Federal Reserve also said it will be willing to lend money in return for a wider array of collateral including stocks.

Still, the repercussions may be widespread.

Meredith Whitney, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., wrote in a note to investors that sales of Lehman's assets will push down the value of securities, forcing other firms to write down their own holdings.

`Fundamentally Flawed'

Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, said the independent securities firm model is ``fundamentally flawed'' and that every securities firm will need to combine with a bank to gain a deposit base and greater access to loans from the Federal Reserve.

Just five months ago, Lehman Brothers Chief Executive Officer Richard Fuld, 62, was telling shareholders that ``the worst is behind us'' in the credit contraction. As concerns escalated about the value of Lehman's assets tied to residential and commercial real estate, Fuld replaced Chief Financial Officer Erin Callan and President Joseph Gregory in June.

Deteriorating markets put more pressure on the value of Lehman's assets and the firm, unable to negotiate an investment from the Korea Development Bank, instead tried to reassure investors last week by revealing third-quarter results early and unveiling a plan to sell part of its fund management unit and create a separate unit for its real estate holdings.

Fuld's efforts were undermined on Sept. 10, when Moody's Investors Service put Lehman's credit rating on review for downgrade, noting that the firm needed a ``strategic transaction with a stronger financial partner'' to help support its rating.

Stock Tumbles

Lehman's stock fell 50 percent on Thursday, Sept. 11 and Friday, Sept. 12 and the collapse spread to Merrill, which has reported four consecutive quarters of losses and is expected to lose money again this quarter.

New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner called a meeting of Wall Street's top firms starting at the Fed's downtown headquarters that began at 6 p.m. on Friday, with a goal of helping ease a sale of Lehman, according to people familiar with the situation.

The two banks most interested in Lehman, London-based Barclays Plc and Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America, balked at a deal unless the government would protect it from any losses on some of the hardest-to-value assets. The government, already shaken by criticism of its actions to support Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, refused to budge and tried to persuade the CEOs of the biggest Wall Street firms to pitch in instead.

Weekend Discussions

The talks lasted through the weekend, with groups of executives breaking off into smaller groups to discuss options and teams of traders examining positions at every major firm. Yesterday, Barclays, the U.K.'s third-biggest bank, dropped out, deciding it couldn't agree on a deal so quickly without some type of protection from losses.

As hopes dimmed for salvaging Lehman, attention turned to the future of Merrill, Lehman's bigger rival. That business, with its 16,690 financial advisers and almost half of fund manager BlackRock Inc., was more attractive to Bank of America than Lehman could be. Merrill CEO John Thain, persuaded by the weekend's events that a deal was necessary to avoid a loss of confidence and a fate similar to Lehman's, entered into negotiations with Bank of America's Ken Lewis.

The liquidation of Lehman, last year's top underwriter of bonds backed by mortgages, is an amplified version of investment bank Drexel Burnham Lambert Inc., which filed for bankruptcy in 1990. Drexel made its name financing corporate takeovers in the 1980s using junk bonds pushed by Michael Milken.

Keeping the Talent

Maintaining the confidence of the markets is only one of the challenges for an investment bank -- the other is retaining employees, recalled Fred Joseph, Drexel's CEO from 1985 to 1990.

``It's an awfully good business, but the assets go down in the elevator every night,'' said Joseph, 71. ``Despite the tough times, the Street's so small, everybody wants the really good guys.''

A key difference with Drexel is Lehman's central role in the over-the-counter derivatives markets, which have ballooned to $454 trillion since Drexel was in business. A default by Lehman on its obligations in that market could cause chain reactions throughout the markets that have never before seen a major financial counterparty fail to honor its obligations.

``The implications of one of the `too big to fail' institutions being allowed to fail is incredibly difficult to grasp, but suffice to say that a huge number of firms and securities are going to get affected,'' said Michael Auyeung, who manages about $500 million as chief executive officer at Pacific Mutual Fund Bhd. in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia. ``The reach of the carnage will be global and system-wide.''

Lehman's collapse wipes out a company that had a market value of $45.5 billion in February 2007. Merrill's sale to Bank of America for $29 a share, while about a 70 percent premium to Merrill's value on Friday, compares with the company's $86 billion market capitalization in January 2007.

``It's breathtaking that we've gone from five standalone firms to two very quickly,'' said Roy Smith, a finance professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and a former partner at Goldman Sachs. ``It's certainly going to cause Wall Street to rethink the strategy.''


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&refer=home&sid=abVpg8xJDMWk
 

Chartreuse

Yellow Solar Sun
Holy crap. I took the last few days off from paying attention to the news (except for Ike) and had no idea about these latest developments.

Looks like it's going to be a very interesting fall.
 

Martin

Deceased
Text size: NY mayor skips Calif. trip amid US financial woes
September 14, 2008
NEW YORK - New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has canceled a trip to California amid troubles in the U.S. financial industry.

A spokesman says Bloomberg spent the weekend speaking with federal officials and heads of financial firms and felt it was best to remain in New York.

Federal government officials and Wall Street executives have been meeting to try to save investment bank Lehman Brothers, whose shares have tumbled 95 percent in the past year over worries it doesn't have enough money to cover losses from its real estate holdings. Insurer AIG and savings bank WaMu have taken steep losses during the past year from risky investments.

Bloomberg is a billionaire former chief executive officer. He had been scheduled to appear with California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in San Francisco on Monday.



http://www.newsday.com/news/local/wire/newyork/ny-bc-ny--bloomberg-lehmanb0914sep14,0,4886599.story
 

gdpetti

Inactive
It's the weekend, special emergency session that got my attention.... to protect the insiders that operate this con game we call a worldwide economy... fair use http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1444498020080914?virtualBrandChannel=10272&sp=true
Derivatives market trades on Sunday to cut Lehman risk

Sun Sep 14, 2008 7:46pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Major players in the $455 trillion global derivatives market rushed Sunday to scale back exposure to a potential bankruptcy filing by investment bank Lehman Brothers in a rare emergency trading session.

Trading took place as U.S. regulators and bankers were making last-ditch efforts to prevent toxic assets from ailing Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) spilling into global markets and rupturing investor faith in the international financial system.

"This is an extremely, and I stress extremely, rare event. It also speaks to the more general notion that, in today's highly disrupted financial markets, the unthinkable is thinkable," said Mohamed El-Erian, the chief executive of Pimco, the world's biggest bond fund, based in Newport Beach, California.

The session opened at 2 p.m. New York time and was due to run until 4 p.m. (1800 to 2000 GMT), according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. ISDA later extended it for another two hours and some banks continued to offset their Lehman exposure even after the official session ended, according to a market source.

Trading involved credit, equity, rates, foreign exchange and commodity derivatives. ISDA estimates the OTC derivatives market excluding commodities has a value of $455 trillion.

Market sources said the special session was initiated by the Federal Reserve.

The aim is to reduce risk associated with a potential bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

"Trades are contingent on a bankruptcy filing at or before 11:59 p.m. New York time Sunday (0359 GMT)," said the statement. "If there is no filing, the trades cease to exist."

LEHMAN DEAL HOPES FADE

Britain's Barclays Plc (BARC.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), which had appeared to be the frontrunner to take over Lehman -- excluding its bad mortgage-related assets -- pulled out of the bidding early in the afternoon, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Bank of America, which had also been named as a potential acquirer, was in advanced talks to buy Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) for at least $38.25 billion in stock, the New York Times said on Sunday, citing people briefed on the negotiations.

Merrill Chief Executive John Thain and Bank of America (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis were present at weekend talks on the future of Lehman.

Fading hopes for a Lehman deal raised the risk the firm may file for bankruptcy. Lehman hired law firm Weil Gotshal & Manges to prepare a potential bankruptcy filing, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday in its online edition, citing a person familiar with the matter.

The head of bond fund Pimco, Bill Gross, said a Lehman bankruptcy risks an "immediate tsunami" because of the unwinding of derivative and credit swap-related positions worldwide in the dealer, hedge fund and buyside universe.

The trading session "saw very little trading -- perhaps $1 billion total -- but at much wider spread levels for corporate bonds," he said.

Mark Grant, managing director of structured finance at Southwest Securities, based in Dallas, said the lack of transparency in the credit derivatives market is a problem.

"No one has any idea about the credit quality of the assets in Lehman's portfolio and no one has a handle about the size of the CDS contracts," he said.

"The market is going to be spooked. People will be fearful and no one outside a very small group of people knows what Lehman going into liquidation will mean."

If there is a forced sale or liquidation, "this could set off another round of writedowns globally."

COUNTERPARTY RISK

If Lehman were to file for bankruptcy, credit spreads for all corporates are expected to widen dramatically, causing large losses to investors, including those without any direct exposure to Lehman.

Barclays credit analysts said earlier this year that CDS counterparty failure could amount to $47 billion in losses.

"Our analysis shows that the failure of a major counterparty which had $2 trillion outstanding in OTC credit derivatives, could result in losses of $36-47 billion in the financial system solely due to the immediate re-pricing of credit risk due to a counterparty default," Barclays said in a February 2008 report.

The U.S. dollar fell against major currencies late Sunday, while U.S. stock index futures tumbled on opening, indicating a sharply lower open on Monday. Dow futures fell more than 300 points, while futures on the S&P 500 were down about 40 points, reflecting investor jitters about the health of the financial sector. ID:nN14672882.

A takeover of Merrill by Bank of America would likely restore some confidence to markets, said Pimco's Gross, "although I am skeptical that BofA would pay such a premium on such short not."

(Reporting by Karen Brettell, Jennifer Ablan and Walden Siew)

(Writing by Ciara Linnane and Chris Sanders)
The beginning of the end for this con game which extends into every part of civilization, not just the obvious financial ones... There's a whole heck of alot of 'other' stuff to come out of the closet soon...
 

Dennis Olson

Chief Curmudgeon
_______________
Market sources said the special session was initiated by the Federal Reserve.


I didn't know the federal reserve had the authority to open trading sessions. Interesting....
 

pixmo

Bucktoothed feline member
Market sources said the special session was initiated by the Federal Reserve.


I didn't know the federal reserve had the authority to open trading sessions. Interesting....

Perhaps if they own the game, they can change the rules to anything they want. One has to wonder how long they can do this without abusing such power and having things come back to bite them in the butt.
 

janecj333

Membership Revoked
It would a good time to have 10 acres out in Arkansas.


.

Well, if ya wanna eats possum fer ten years.:whistle:

I can't imagine a worse place to bug out to than where there is no social or physical infrastructure in the best of times.
 

Jarhead

Has No Life - Lives on TB
MARKET UPDATE: (as of 12:15pm)

DJIA 11,171.05 -250.94 -2.20%

NASDAQ 2,227.74 -33.53 -1.48%

S&P 500 1,225.23 -26.47 -2.11%

Jarhead
:usm:
 

FlyLadyFan

Inactive
Well, if ya wanna eats possum fer ten years.:whistle:

I can't imagine a worse place to bug out to than where there is no social or physical infrastructure in the best of times.

It would probably come as a surprise to most folks from Arkansas that they have no social or physical infrastructure.

FLF

.
 

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
Mods: can you merge this and other of today's econ threads as appropriate? Thanks.

edited to say I've merged the threads - Deena
 

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
from www.bankokpost.com:


Markets in chaos


......................................................
Asia's main stock markets in Tokyo, Shanghai and Hong Kong were closed for a bank holiday Monday, but the rest of the region's bourses dropped sharply on reports that US investment banker Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc would declare bankruptcy, and that Merrill Lynch would be bought out by Bank of America. European stocks plummetted in turn.


One of the best performers was the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The SET index dropped "only" 11.95 points, or 1.8 per cent, ending at 642.39.


Brokers attributed the SET's modest decline compared with other Asian bourses to the government decision to lift a state of emergency in Bangkok over the weekend.


"This is not surprising because the Thai market has been falling for weeks," said Mongol Puengpaetha, an analyst at Adkinson Securities. "The lifting of the emergency decree was good news and should have boosted the market. Instead, we just didn't fall as far as the others."


Taiwan's stocks shed 4.09 per cent. The Weighted Price Index of Taiwan Stock Exchange opened sharply lower and continued its downward trend to close at 6052.45 points, down 258.23 points, or 4.09 per cent.


All eight major sectors dropped, with construction falling 6.8 per cent to become the day's biggest loser, followed by cement's 6.1 per cent and financials' 6 per cent.


India's two main bourses fell sharply, as the benchmark Sensex plunged 5.6 per cent and the broader S&P CNX Nifty of the National Stock Exchange was down 5.67 per cent


Dealers said the terrorist strike in Indian capital Delhi on Saturday which claimed 21 lives and the uncertainties on the India-US civilian nuclear deal also weighed down the market sentiment.


Stocks on the Singapore Exchange slumped 3.29 per cent, with the benchmark Straits Times Index dropping 84.4 points to 2,486.21.


Indonesia's stock market plunged by 4.7 per cent Monday, as the Indonesia Composite Index closed at 1,719.254 points, or down 84.808 points.


Share prices tumbled in early trading in Europe on Monday as markets reacted to the financial turmoil triggered by the demise of US investment bank Lehman Brothers.


Germany's blue-chip DAX fell 2.8 per cent, while the Paris bourse lost nearly 3.5 per cent and the London Stock Exchange was down more than 2 per cent. In nearly all cases banking shares were hardest hit.


Traders in Frankfurt said there was no panic on the German market, noting that the 30-share DAX recovered slightly to 6,059 after slumping to 6,050 at the opening.


There was understanding in the market that the US government could not step in to bail out every bank that had overreached itself in mortgage market speculation, they said.


Lehman Brothers was expected to file for bankruptcy before the start of US trading later Monday, hours after financial services firm Merrill Lynch agreed to sell itself to Bank of America.


In Paris, the big losers of the morning included the banks Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, which were down more than 8 per cent in the first hour of trading.


They were followed by the insurance giant Axa, down by 7.66 per cent, and two more banks, Dexia and BNP Paribas, which had lost more than 5 per cent.


After one hour of trading, the Paris Bourse's benchmark CAC 40 had lost 3.39 per cent, to stand at 4,185.66.


British banks were hit by the fall-out from Wall Street as the London Stock Exchange's Financial Times Index slumped 2.72 per cent to 5,269.20 an hour after trading began.


The share price of Britain's biggest mortgage lenders, Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS), was down by about 10 per cent, as shares in the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) fell by more than 12 per cent.


Barclays, which had been one of the front-runners in efforts to rescue Lehman Brothers, saw its share drop by 6 per cent.


In Madrid, the country's two biggest banks, Santander and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), were down 3.44 and 3.53 per cent respectively 40 minutes after trading started.


Banco Popular dropped by 3.33 per cent, Banesto 3.19 per cent, Sabadell 3.32 per cent and Bankinter 2.07 per cent in the Ibex-35 index


The Stockholm bourse dropped 3 per cent in early trading. Shares in the four main banking groups, including Nordea, were off 5 per cent, although Swedish banking groups have said they have not been exposed to the troubled subprime US mortgage market.


In Austria, shares traded on the Vienna stock exchange 3.9 per cent lower in the first hour. Erste Group Bank AG and Raiffeisen International Bank-Holding AG both lost more than 4 per cent. .................
 

fredkc

Retired Class Clown
So lets see.
  • Something that has been clearly and calmly explained for at leat 20 years,
  • Whose time has come
  • Whose imminent arrival has been known for at least 18 months,
finally shows up "outa the blue" and the best the in the industry can offer is:
“Everybody here is in shock," NYSE trader Alan Valdes
“The immediate response is this is a worst-case scenario”
"The tectonic plates beneath the world financial system are shifting...."
"I think highly of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, so I expect them to ride this out,''
"The implications of one of the `too big to fail' institutions being allowed to fail is incredibly difficult to grasp..."
"It's breathtaking ..."
"This is an extremely, and I stress extremely, rare event..."
:lkick:
They were probably all too busy, over the weekend, trying to get their money out of all those "sure thing" time-share condos.

I'm curious, I have not had dealings since about 1996 but... how many here got calls from their "genius" brokers about getting out of Lehman Bros, B of A, F & F, Wamu, Merryl Lynch (and what happened to Pierce, Fenner & Smith?), etc etc?

A spokesman says Bloomberg spent the weekend speaking with federal officials and heads of financial firms and felt it was best to remain in New York.

That meeting must've been a hoot. Straight out of Blazing Saddles.
"We've got to protect our phoney baloney jobs, gentlemen! Harumph! Harumph!"

"As awful as Lehman is, it's not enough to bring down the financial system. It's one step closer to cleansing the system but… the collateral damage will continue to cause a lot of pain through next year," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak.
I have read, from a coule of sources I respect on this, that this whole mess might have not lasted more than 18 months, had the government stayed out of it. let things fall/fail where they may. That the meddling may have us on course for a genoowine DEEpression. IMO "Too big to fail" is a boogieman in gramma's closet.
 

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
Monday, Sept. 15, 2008 04:30 PDT
Wall Street's nightmare goes nuclear

Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, May 17, 2007:


All that said, given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system.

Henry Paulson, secretary of the Treasury, April 20, 2007:


I don't see (subprime mortgage market troubles) imposing a serious problem. I think it's going to be largely contained."


Wall Street Journal, Sept. 15, 2008:


The American financial system was shaken to its core on Sunday. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. faced the prospect of liquidation, and Merrill Lynch & Co. agreed to be sold to Bank of America Corp.


Am I being unfair? Yes. If either Ben Bernanke or Hank Paulson were to say, "Oh my God, the American financial system is falling apart and we don't have any idea how to stop it," those very words would ensure that any nascent meltdown accelerated to critical mass in a nanosecond. When the Fed and the Treasury brokered the rescue of Bear Stearns in March we knew exactly what they really thought about the fragility of financial markets. So we can give them a pass. Responsible leadership requires staying calm, assuring the public that matters are under control, and making the best case possible for a scenario under which catastrophe doesn't actually happen. 'Cuz if we all head for the exits at once, we're in trouble.

Except that, here we are, in September 2008, less than two months before a presidential election, and what we are witnessing, in effect, is everybody heading for the exits all at once. The key to understanding Wall Street's woes is appreciating that a lot of people borrowed a lot of money to make a lot of very bad bets. Now, everyone is simultaneously worried that they don't have enough capital at hand to pay their debts when the collector comes calling. So everyone is attempting to sell everything they can find a buyer for in order to raise capital, and lower their debt exposure. This is what is known as "deleveraging." The problem is that when everyone attempts to deleverage at once, the market is flooded with more sellers than buyers, and the prices for everything salable fall, which just makes the whole mess worse for everyone.

---more article at link----

― Andrew Leonard

Link: http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2008/09/15/systemic_meltdown/
 

fredkc

Retired Class Clown
All that said, given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system.:lkick:
Like Greenspan, Bernake couldn't give a straight answer with a gun to his "nether regions" and a knife at his wife's throat.
 

alchemike

Veteran Member
Responsible leadership requires staying calm, assuring the public that matters are under control, and making the best case possible for a scenario under which catastrophe doesn't actually happen. 'Cuz if we all head for the exits at once, we're in trouble.

responsible leadership requies the telling of THE TRUTH...

the situation has been brought on by IRRESPONSIBLE leadership lying as S.O.P...

o)<

mike
 

night driver

ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Remember that 87 was preceded by not a lot of gloom n doom press, but a LOT of volatility. For about a week and a half, becasue I was on vacation down Burr Oak/southern Ohio way for that week prior to the actual one day crunch....and I would get the car radio on once or twice a day to see what was hapening....
 

Raphaelle

Contributing Member
You know, I think Arkansas is not so bad. I know a guy who owns a whole mountain in Arkansas, and he has the best social and physical infrastructure I've ever seen--- 'cause it's totally under his control. If he doesn't want to socialize with you, you're not going up there to enjoy his physical facilities! Pretty nice kind of infrastructure, seems to me.
 

Deena in GA

Administrator
_______________
It's been down and then up a little over and over today, but now it's getting close to the 11,000 mark. Will they pull it up again? Currently the Dow is -367.29 and sitting at 11,054.70.
 

SurvivalRing

Rich Fleetwood - Founder - author/coder/podcaster
Stocks tumble amid new Wall Street landscape

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080915/wall_street.html

AP
Stocks tumble amid new Wall Street landscape
Monday September 15, 4:31 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
Stocks fall sharply following Lehman bankruptcy, Merrill sale; Dow falls more than 500 points


NEW YORK (AP) -- A stunning makeover of the Wall Street landscape sent stocks falling precipitously Monday, with the Dow Jones industrials sliding 500 points in their worst point drop since the September 2001 terrorist attacks. Investors reacted badly to a shakeup of the financial industry that took out two storied names: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co.
Stocks also posted big losses in markets across much of the globe as investors absorbed Lehman's bankruptcy filing and what was essentially a forced sale of Merrill Lynch to Bank of America for $50 billion in stock. While those companies' situations had reached some resolution, the market remained anxious about American International Group Inc., which is seeking emergency funding to shore up its balance sheet. A faltering of the world's largest insurance company likely would have financial implications far beyond that of Lehman, the largest U.S. bankruptcy.

The swift developments that took place Sunday are the biggest yet in the 14-month-old credit crises that stems from now toxic subprime mortgage debt. For the first part of Monday's trading, the market was falling, but in a largely orderly fashion as investors seemed to draw some relief from the resolution of Lehman's problems.

But as the session wore on, and there was no word about AIG, the market's suffered another bout of fear that the ongoing credit crisis will continue to devastate the financial sector, and selling accelerated in the final hour.

Investors are worried that trouble at AIG and the bankruptcy filing by Lehman, felled by $60 billion in bad debt and a dearth of investor confidence, will touch off another series of troubles for banks and financial institutions that may be forced to further write down the value of their own debt assets. Wall Street had been hopeful six months ago that the collapse of Bear Stearns would mark the darkest day of the credit crisis.

AIG's troubles a week after its stock dropped 45 percent are worrisome for some investors because of the company's enormous balance sheet and the risks that troubles with that companies finances could spill over to the companies with which it does business. AIG, one of the 30 stocks that make up the Dow industrials, fell $6.93, or 57 percent, to $5.21 Monday as investors worried that it would be the subject of downgrades from credit ratings agencies.

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow fell 504.48, or 4.42 percent, to 10,917.51, moving below the 11,000 mark for the first time since mid-July. It was the worst point drop for the Dow since it lost 684.81 on Sept. 17, 2001, the first day of trading after the terror attacks. It was also the sixth-largest point drop in the Dow, just behind the 508.00 it suffered in the October 1987 crash.

Broader stock indicators also fell. The Standard & Poor's 500 index declined 58.74, or 4.69 percent, to 1,192.96, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 81.36, or 3.60 percent, to 2,179.91.

The S&P 500 broke through the 1,200.44 trading low seen in mid-July, a key level traders watch. Much of the trading day until about the last hour had been orderly because the market had tested another key level early in the session and managed to stay above it. But the eventual drift lower prompted some investors to hit the "sell" button.
 
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Red Baron

Paleo-Conservative
_______________
Look at the final volume!

Is that panic selling, programmed trading or what?
 

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Knell

Deceased
Not really counting today, has the market been more volitile this year than usuall? Just seems like there's been a lot of up 100+, down 100+ days.
 
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