CHAT What "Black Swan" events to you forsee as possible "problems" for the current regime?

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
This thought came to me last night that the "wokism" is so elevated that TPTB are setting themselves up to have the limb they've climbed out onto sawed off behind them by one or more "black swan" events. The question then is which ones or how many of them would be needed for that branch to be cut through?

Personally I expect energy prices and unemployment to be the lawn upon which these black swans will be drawn upon to fertilize, but from which of the Horsemen will they lay claim to as inspirations? Iran, the PRC and North Korea are almost too obvious and likely. What else out there is likely to turn on the light in the kitchen to show everyone the nature of the roaches?
 

jward

passin' thru
Hmm. I dunno, and part of me says it's too close to bedtime to speculate, given the need for sound sleep. Another part o' me, though, encourages you to keep speculating coz your imagery is in rare form tonight, and not exactly pleasant, but pleasing none the less.

Actually, not sure if you mean standard real world events or not. I think we've been set up to see some "aliens" show up, or perhaps the second coming of Christ. It has been speculated by someone, somewhere, that it'd be easy to hologram such a second coming, and thus fashion the new world according to the edicts proclaimed in the ADII.

I also expect we're bout due for the violent magnetic pole shift and earth changes, though that may in fact be averted if we get our spiritual centers strengthened to the degree it would require. Run of the mill food scarcity issues are always good too; nothing like a famine to get folk to eat their own? I dunno.
 
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Doomer Doug

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Oh Housecarl, you shouldn't throw raw meat out like that. :shd:

The list would be "legion" to put it mildly. However, I'm taking the position that converging forces, internal to the USA, both sides, as the "Democratic Party is now engaged in a savage, internal civil war, so that is one thing that could take them down.

Still, my gut view is the foreigners think biden is a brain dead moron, a fool and his administration is stocked full of sleazebags, fools, morons, outright crooks, thieves and assorted ner de wells, plus being a mob of leftover Obamabots. And that foreign contempt will play out, in my opinion, in the global reserve currency bloodbath looming.
Yellen, well Housecarl, she is just a seriously INCOMPETENT economist and the trigger event will be when the MULTIPLE TRILLIONS of fiat money being printed comes home to roost. I see NO WAY to avoide a currency "crisis," collapse, devaluation, etc etc


and you know, given the treason, and corruption reeking nationwide, I see the foreigners triggering an economic crisis so they can pick up the scraps.

Everybody is ranting about the $50,000 bitcoin, but moi will stick with PM.

Lock and load gang. Biden is going to take the economic system down, because his economic policies will do so, and are NOW doing so.

America all falls apart when the global reserve currency scam is outed.

One final thing is given the warmongers biden and his gang are playing with, we might just trigger a war with either China or Russia, or Iran, given the weak vibes we are putting out.
Iran for one is licking her chops at us, and thinks she can take as the more biden grovels on the ground.

Just put some mortar rounds into the Green zone tonight I think.
 

Melodi

Disaster Cat
The first thing you look for in a Nostradamus "prediction" is a Quatrain number, they all have them; as far as I can tell this is a hoax (and not a very good one). Note there is not Quatrain number to check - (they are all on-line takes about 5 seconds if there is one).

Uncle Nosty DID say something about the potential for a "blood Plague" around this time or in the near future and has quatrains about the "Great Brothers of the North" who are friends for a time and then become "unfriends" both have Eagles as their symbols (probably Modern Russia and the USA but that's one theory).

This isn't the fault of the poster, these things float around all the time and again, the fastest way to check is the Quatrain numbers.
 

Old Gray Mare

Has No Life - Lives on TB
A black swan event is supposed to be a surprise. If we could anticipate it, it's not a black swan.

That said with the economy shut down and way money is being printed it's only a matter of time before the bill comes due.

I think what will surprise the PTB will be how quickly their own supporters will turn on them. IMHO they have far more to fear from the violent far left then they do from the more disciplined conservative majority they so dispise. I think they got a taste of that when rioters stormed the Capitol. They know exactly who was and wasn't in the Capitol. I think it scared them. They found out their former tool has teeth and no loyalty to them.
 

twobarkingdogs

Veteran Member
I'm expecting hyperinflation and a scarcity of goods as the government continues its policy of zero percent interest rates, huge budget deficits and the endless print of new money.

With the fed policy of buying up most of the t-bills issued and even mortgage backed securities, Quantitative Easing, all to keep interest rates low it is pumping to much money into the system. Currently a lot of this excess supply of money is going into the stock market, housing markets, commodities markets and now it seems into bit coin.

Add to that a shift away from the US dollar for international trade as direct trade deals are made between china and europe, china and the mid-east, and basically chana and everyone else and there will be much less need for US dollars on the world stage. This lessening need for US dollars will weaken the dollar and drive up the cost of imported goods further increasing inflation

At this point there will be a race by foreign countries to dump their dollar holdings

And at some point this excess money out there will come back to the US to purchase exports, basically ag and raw materials, and this money will somewhat reach the hands of joe sixpack where it will be used to chase consumer goods. At which point shortages of goods will appear and unemployment will skyrocket as the economy grinds to a halt and the infrastructure falls apart due to lack of maintenance.

Its not really a black swan as you can see it happening if you know where to look but most folks will be caught unaware and be surprised about what happened after the fact.

tbd
 

Terrwyn

Veteran Member
I agree about inflation. It may not be a black swan event but listening to Maria and Dennis Gartman a minute ago talk about all the inflation numbers being up I think we have big problems.
And BC was off 8,000 or so.
 

PghPanther

Veteran Member
Its getting more obvious by the day.........the Black swan of evitability today.

You have Iran in the middle East and Israel.............sworn enemies of each other.............the US is towed inline with Israel, while Iran is in bed with Russia and China over oil distribution, economic solidarity and a rebellion against the US petro dollar.

So Israel along with the US and Britain are on one side ..........while Iran/China and Russia are on the other side.

That's your start of WW3 if people aren't careful.

But here is the flash point..........

Syria.....

The Assad dictatorship there has a civil war going on...........................on Sunday night 60 Minutes started on this one...showing the abuse and torture the Assad regime has done to the rebels, women and children ............they were very critical of Trump pulling US troops out of there.

According to 60 minutes and all the US experts (who just happened to be of the tribe) say that Assad has Iran on his side and Russia right along side cheering and supporting them. While all the photos of women and children slaughtered are pulling on the heart strings to get the US back in there and fight against Assad...........

Then to add a joker to the deck...................Biden who says you don't have to be Jewish to be a Zionist is a statement of the perfect puppet for Israel now in place in the WH then comes out and says the Biden administration wants to start all over with negotiating with Iran in regards to their nuclear ambitions........much to Israel's horror.......

What a giant CF this situation is turning into....

....sides could flip flop back and forth at a moments notice and unpredictable escalations could result.....

I've been reading much about WW1 recently and the events leading up to the great war that no one wanted or expected back then and I see many parallels to what is going on today in Syria and those parties taking sides in that conflict........

So you want your Black swan there it is staring us right in the face...........
 

cupid's romance

Contributing Member
The first thing you look for in a Nostradamus "prediction" is a Quatrain number, they all have them; as far as I can tell this is a hoax (and not a very good one). Note there is not Quatrain number to check - (they are all on-line takes about 5 seconds if there is one).

Uncle Nosty DID say something about the potential for a "blood Plague" around this time or in the near future and has quatrains about the "Great Brothers of the North" who are friends for a time and then become "unfriends" both have Eagles as their symbols (probably Modern Russia and the USA but that's one theory).

This isn't the fault of the poster, these things float around all the time and again, the fastest way to check is the Quatrain numbers.
Glad it was not accurate!
 

mecoastie

Veteran Member
I can think of a couple but isn't a Black Swan something that comes out of nowhere?

The economy tanking with high unemployment.

Mid east exploding and us not having a clue what to do. Causes a massive rise in energy costs.

Continuing expensive weather issues with possible rises in food costs.

A battle for control of the Dem party between the Biden faction and the progs. No leadership when it is most needed.
 

Kathy in FL

TB Fanatic
Black Swan events are High Impact/Low Probability events They are also unexpected to the point that they can't be stopped.

I don't see any true Black Swans ... but then again that is why they are Black Swans. However, what I do see is a massive worsening of all the things currently visible to the naked eye as they barrel down the train tracks.

Inflation but I don't know if it will be "hyper." Quite frankly it doesn't have to be to still be disastrous. Any amount or kind of economic upheaval, coming soon to a theater near you, will be catastrophic for too many people already balancing on the knife's edge. The one trick in their bag - stimulus checks - only makes the problem worse due to the inflation factor. There are other components to this potential situation but I'm preaching to the choir here.

Continued political upheaval because frankly the left can't get along with each other, nor does it have any real consensus to move forward with. "Orange man bad" isn't a consensus, it is a distraction from the fact they can get their heads out of their own backsides to actually do something constructive. Even if that is something conservatives don't agree on. Wipe out all student loan debt. Nope, not happening. Wipe out $50K of loan debt? Nope, not happening. Wipe out $10K of loan debt? Nope, that hasn't happened either and likely won't, if ever, as the idiots currently in charge duke it out with conflicting agenda points.

Loss of standing in the world economy? Now that is a real possibility. However, not even China and Russia combined can take the US's place in conspicuous consumption, so when we go down/are taken down the world gets a swirly right along with us.

Potential for World War? Oh yeah. But the world could also just continue to roll along like a baby carriage with one square wheel. I don't know if that is the goal of the crazy ones however. War and terrorism on our own soil tends to trigger a strong nationalism in the American citizenry. Current political leadership will quickly lose control of the narrative if that happens and thus lose power. I believe, and this is my opinion, that after 9/11 that terrorism on US soil stopped, not necessarily because we pulled out our big stick and are particularly strict about keeping acts from happening again, but because there is a hesitancy in the Terrorists themselves because they saw that their act of Terrorism only succeeded in doing the exact opposite of what their goal was. That remains true.

"Covid19" turning into a cyclical illness? Possibly though it won't be covid19 any longer but simply a new potential illness during "cold and flu season." The current regime can't afford that to happen because people will question their all-powerful claims and science and all the other yada yada they've been bleating all along.
 

WalknTrot

Veteran Member
It's my theory that every President gets tested. Trump's test was The Covid.

If anybody could predict, it wouldn't be a Black Swan. ;)
 

jward

passin' thru
Well the biggie true unforeseen item that could lead to trouble for the pretenders to the throne might be if they doubled down on the Obama spying on the press, and cracked that wall of defense enough to let some light pass through.
..all bets might then be off. It's in no small part been our loss of a true free press that got us in this mess.

However, Most of the economy, war, unemployment, Covid restrictions etc are already baked into the cake, and "known" wink-wink to be bad man orange's fault. I don't think there is a big pool o' folk who believe in the regime, or that it's acquisition of power was legitimate, so there's not much that will shock or disgust them into relinquishing their support for him. Uncle suga and his squads will just dress up in their pimp suits and hand out our free money and all will be well.

Perhaps the internal power struggles will do it, but I'd assume the master puppet holder won't let the kids disrupt anything important. Natural disaster, other worldly events remain big enough to carry enough momentum and surprise to qualify as Black swan.
 

20Gauge

Has No Life - Lives on TB
This thought came to me last night that the "wokism" is so elevated that TPTB are setting themselves up to have the limb they've climbed out onto sawed off behind them by one or more "black swan" events. The question then is which ones or how many of them would be needed for that branch to be cut through?

Personally I expect energy prices and unemployment to be the lawn upon which these black swans will be drawn upon to fertilize, but from which of the Horsemen will they lay claim to as inspirations? Iran, the PRC and North Korea are almost too obvious and likely. What else out there is likely to turn on the light in the kitchen to show everyone the nature of the roaches?
I have not idea, but it will be something we did not anticipate.

My vote is for inflation.
My other vote is the murder of Trump.
 

20Gauge

Has No Life - Lives on TB
A black swan event is supposed to be a surprise. If we could anticipate it, it's not a black swan.

That said with the economy shut down and way money is being printed it's only a matter of time before the bill comes due.

I think what will surprise the PTB will be how quickly their own supporters will turn on them. IMHO they have far more to fear from the violent far left then they do from the more disciplined conservative majority they so dispise. I think they got a taste of that when rioters stormed the Capitol. They know exactly who was and wasn't in the Capitol. I think it scared them. They found out their former tool has teeth and no loyalty to them.
Though I agree with the definition of black swan.

We have a lot of smart people here, some one will hit upon it. So keep guessing folks!!
 

20Gauge

Has No Life - Lives on TB
The Texas fiasco was a Black Swan. At least for Texas.
Perhaps.

If the bit about the EPA not allowing coal plants to run due to climate change are true. I am leaning towards the you stand against us, so we are going to screw you over more than black swan.
 

Dozdoats

On TB every waking moment
There aren't nearly enough black swans and not enough that are bad enough to be the Demoncrat slate wiper that we need internally. The Long March has gone on too long in the ZUSA for things to be recoverable without a vast effusion of blood (if at all) at this point. And we will not get to boogaloo alone, there will be foreign intervention.
 

psychgirl

Veteran Member
Ebola outbreak in the US

Economic (total) collapse but that’s not really unforeseen....

Trump gets his “due” and with that all of the “nasty secrets” are revealed to the entire world. 75% of the population goes into shock learning what many have already known for a long long time. #see Alt forum
 

Intestinal Fortitude

encouraging others
This thought came to me last night that the "wokism" is so elevated that TPTB are setting themselves up to have the limb they've climbed out onto sawed off behind them by one or more "black swan" events. The question then is which ones or how many of them would be needed for that branch to be cut through?

Personally I expect energy prices and unemployment to be the lawn upon which these black swans will be drawn upon to fertilize, but from which of the Horsemen will they lay claim to as inspirations? Iran, the PRC and North Korea are almost too obvious and likely. What else out there is likely to turn on the light in the kitchen to show everyone the nature of the roaches?
a super earthquake/s CA WA OR
 

The Hammer

Veteran Member
Never mind black swans. Judging from the fact that they had Harris making phone calls any president would normally be making, I'd say the routine duties of the POTUS are challenges this administration is scrambling to meet...
 

KFhunter

Veteran Member
Biden is the future fall guy, the patsy to blame everything on.

If he's already in place, all that's left is the fall right?

The black swan is orchestrated, the dems will turn once it hurts a good bit.
 

Mtsilverback

Contributing Member
How about Biden gets wacked and the patriots are singled out as the offending group. The nation is locked down and the constitution is suspended until all the conspirators are rounded up. Congress enacts new, more draconian laws, isolating all communities and placed them under military control. Would this meet all the requirements?
 
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