Volcano Volcanoes’ Future Climate Effects May Exceed Standard Estimates

packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
eos.org

Volcanoes’ Future Climate Effects May Exceed Standard Estimates - Eos

Future releases of sulfur dioxide from volcanoes will likely be higher than the reconstructed historical levels currently used for climate predictions.
eos.org eos.org

Volcanoes’ Future Climate Effects May Exceed Standard Estimates​

Future releases of sulfur dioxide from volcanoes will likely be higher than the reconstructed historical levels currently used for climate predictions.
By Sarah Stanley29 June 2023


View from space of a massive ash and steam plume erupting from a volcano


Astronauts aboard the International Space Station photographed this large eruption from Sarychev volcano in the Kuril Islands of Russia in June 2009. Credit: NASA

Source: Geophysical Research Letters​

When volcanoes erupt, they often spew large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. This toxic, foul-smelling gas may then form tiny sulfate particles that particularly in the stratosphere, can influence Earth’s climate for months to many decades.

In modeling future climate change, scientists have therefore incorporated the effects of volcanic eruptions. However, Chim et al. now show that there is a 95% chance that volcanic eruptions between 2015 and 2100 will release more sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere than standard climate models currently assume.

The challenge of predicting future sulfur dioxide release arises because eruptions cannot be precisely forecasted. So standard climate models have typically relied on averaged historical sulfur dioxide release data from 1850 to 2014, under the assumption that future releases will be similar. However, this approach does not account for large variation in releases that can occur from century to century, nor does it account for small-magnitude but frequent eruptions that are not captured in historical records.

To address these shortcomings, the researchers used updated data sets from satellites and ice cores, which provide a glimpse into eruptions over the past 11,500 years, to simulate the effects of future volcanic sulfur dioxide releases. They also applied a mathematical modeling method that more adequately represents eruptions of all magnitudes, and they developed a new modeling framework that better simulates plumes of gases and other materials ejected in eruptions.

Their analysis suggests that existing climate projections most likely underestimate the effects of volcanic sulfur dioxide on Earth’s climate, including on global surface temperature, sea level, and sea ice extent. It also indicates that existing models appear to inadequately account for the effects of smaller-scale eruptions that add up over time to influence climate significantly.

The researchers recommend that standard climate models—in particular, those produced as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—be updated accordingly. (Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103743, 2023)
—Sarah Stanley, Science Writer

Citation: Stanley, S. (2023), Volcanoes’ future climate effects may exceed standard estimates, Eos, 104, Volcanoes’ Future Climate Effects May Exceed Standard Estimates - Eos. Published on 29 June 2023.​

 
J

john70

Veteran Member
another person who will write anything for anybody that will pay her

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer

Sarah Stanley​



Sarah Stanley, a freelance writer for Eos, has a background in environmental microbiology but covers a wide range of science stories for a variety of audiences. She has also written for PLOS, the University of Washington, Kaiser Permanente, Stanford Medicine, Gladstone Institutes, and Cancer Commons, a nonprofit that works with cancer patients.
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
john70 said:
another person who will write anything for anybody that will pay her

Sarah Stanley, Science Writer

Sarah Stanley​



Sarah Stanley, a freelance writer for Eos, has a background in environmental microbiology but covers a wide range of science stories for a variety of audiences. She has also written for PLOS, the University of Washington, Kaiser Permanente, Stanford Medicine, Gladstone Institutes, and Cancer Commons, a nonprofit that works with cancer patients.
Click to expand...

If you watched the video I posted in the unexplained forum today writing papers and books based upon other people’s research, without actually going out into the field to do real research, is the norm now.
 
J

john70

Veteran Member
PhD student May M.M. Chim wins outstanding poster presentation | Yusuf Hamied Department of Chemistry

May Man Mei Chim, A STUDENT at the University of Cambridge​

“Monday, March 7, 2022

The Outstanding Student Presentation Award (OSPA) was awarded to PhD student May M.M. Chim for her poster titled “Model simulations of the climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in a future warming scenario.”

We extend our congratulations to May for this wonderful achievement!

This award was presented at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting 2021 under the Atmospheric Science category.

She explains that “My research investigates the climate impacts of volcanic eruptions under global warming by performing future climate simulations using the UK Earth System Model.

“The new methodology in my research is a first attempt to account for the impacts of climate change on volcanic eruptive plumes in an Earth System Model, which allows better evaluation of the climate impacts of volcanoes under global warming.”

This research is part of Dr Anja Schmidt’s research group supervised jointly by Schmidt and Dr Thomas Aubry from the Department of Geography.

The purpose of the OSPAs are to promote, recognise and reward students for quality research in Earth and space science.”

1 STUDENT out of 100’s

1 paper out of 100’s

“The purpose of the OSPAs are to promote, recognise and reward students for quality research in Earth and space science

THAT GOES ALONG WITH THE PARTY LINE
“ new methodology”

IF YOU CHANGE THE INPUT, “the researchers used updated data sets”

“They also applied a mathematical modeling method that more adequately represents eruptions of all magnitudes, and they developed a new modeling framework that better simulates plumes of gases and other materials ejected in eruptions.”

YOU CHANGE OUTPUT

IF YOU CAN CHANGE THE INPUT TO ANYTHING YOU WANT

YOU CAN CHANGE THE OUTPUT TO ANYTHING YOU WANT

IT LOOKS LIKE SOMEONE DECIDED ON THE RESULTS DESIRED

used different data

applied a NEW AND DIFFERENT modeling method



Many PhD students do what they told



kind of like a debate, some students are pro and some are con



NEXT, someone pays Sarah Stanley to write a hit piece

Volcanoes’ Future Climate Effects May Exceed Standard Estimates​


I hate to tell you, BUT, anything, anywhere, MAY, exceed standard estimates
 
Samuel Adams

Samuel Adams

Has No Life - Lives on TB
“Volcanoes’ Future Climate Effects May Exceed Standard Estimates”

But will they exceed state and federal environmental standards…….


That’s my lay in bed and fret favorite, right there.


:cmpcf:
 
P

Profit of Doom

Dismember
packyderms_wife said:
eos.org

Volcanoes’ Future Climate Effects May Exceed Standard Estimates - Eos

Future releases of sulfur dioxide from volcanoes will likely be higher than the reconstructed historical levels currently used for climate predictions.
eos.org eos.org

Volcanoes’ Future Climate Effects May Exceed Standard Estimates​

Future releases of sulfur dioxide from volcanoes will likely be higher than the reconstructed historical levels currently used for climate predictions.
By Sarah Stanley29 June 2023


View from space of a massive ash and steam plume erupting from a volcano


Astronauts aboard the International Space Station photographed this large eruption from Sarychev volcano in the Kuril Islands of Russia in June 2009. Credit: NASA

Source: Geophysical Research Letters​

When volcanoes erupt, they often spew large amounts of sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. This toxic, foul-smelling gas may then form tiny sulfate particles that particularly in the stratosphere, can influence Earth’s climate for months to many decades.

In modeling future climate change, scientists have therefore incorporated the effects of volcanic eruptions. However, Chim et al. now show that there is a 95% chance that volcanic eruptions between 2015 and 2100 will release more sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere than standard climate models currently assume.

The challenge of predicting future sulfur dioxide release arises because eruptions cannot be precisely forecasted. So standard climate models have typically relied on averaged historical sulfur dioxide release data from 1850 to 2014, under the assumption that future releases will be similar. However, this approach does not account for large variation in releases that can occur from century to century, nor does it account for small-magnitude but frequent eruptions that are not captured in historical records.

To address these shortcomings, the researchers used updated data sets from satellites and ice cores, which provide a glimpse into eruptions over the past 11,500 years, to simulate the effects of future volcanic sulfur dioxide releases. They also applied a mathematical modeling method that more adequately represents eruptions of all magnitudes, and they developed a new modeling framework that better simulates plumes of gases and other materials ejected in eruptions.

Their analysis suggests that existing climate projections most likely underestimate the effects of volcanic sulfur dioxide on Earth’s climate, including on global surface temperature, sea level, and sea ice extent. It also indicates that existing models appear to inadequately account for the effects of smaller-scale eruptions that add up over time to influence climate significantly.

The researchers recommend that standard climate models—in particular, those produced as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—be updated accordingly. (Geophysical Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103743, 2023)
—Sarah Stanley, Science Writer

Citation: Stanley, S. (2023), Volcanoes’ future climate effects may exceed standard estimates, Eos, 104, Volcanoes’ Future Climate Effects May Exceed Standard Estimates - Eos. Published on 29 June 2023.​

Click to expand...
In other words, they made a SWAG. They’ll be wrong anyway.
 
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