WAR US, Pakistan Near Open War; Chinese Ultimatum Warns Washington Against Attack

[twincougars]

http://tarpley.net/2011/05/21/us-pa...se-ultimatum-warns-washington-against-attack/

[FONT=Verdana,Arial][/FONT]US, Pakistan Near Open War; Chinese Ultimatum Warns Washington Against Attack


[Translate]

Webster G. Tarpley, Ph.D.
TARPLEY.net
May 20, 2011
China has officially put the United States on notice that Washington’s planned attack on Pakistan will be interpreted as an act of aggression against Beijing. This blunt warning represents the first known strategic ultimatum received by the United States in half a century, going back to Soviet warnings during the Berlin crisis of 1958-1961, and indicates the grave danger of general war growing out of the US-Pakistan confrontation.
“Any Attack on Pakistan Would be Construed as an Attack on China”

Responding to reports that China has asked the US to respect Pakistan’s sovereignty in the aftermath of the Bin Laden operation, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Jiang Yu used a May 19 press briefing to state Beijing’s categorical demand that the “sovereignty and territorial integrity of Pakistan must be respected.” According to Pakistani diplomatic sources cited by the Times of India, China has “warned in unequivocal terms that any attack on Pakistan would be construed as an attack on China.” This ultimatum was reportedly delivered at the May 9 China-US strategic dialogue and economic talks in Washington, where the Chinese delegation was led by Vice Prime Minister Wang Qishan and State Councilor Dai Bingguo.1 Chinese warnings are implicitly backed up by that nation’s nuclear missiles, including an estimated 66 ICBMs, some capable of striking the United States, plus 118 intermediate-range missiles, 36 submarine-launched missiles, and numerous shorter-range systems.
Support from China is seen by regional observers as critically important for Pakistan, which is otherwise caught in a pincers between the US and India: “If US and Indian pressure continues, Pakistan can say ‘China is behind us. Don’t think we are isolated, we have a potential superpower with us,’” Talat Masood, a political analyst and retired Pakistani general, told AFP.2
The Chinese ultimatum came during the visit of Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani in Beijing, during which the host government announced the transfer of 50 state-of-the-art JF-17 fighter jets to Pakistan, immediately and without cost.3 Before his departure, Gilani had stressed the importance of the Pakistan-China alliance, proclaiming: “We are proud to have China as our best and most trusted friend. And China will always find Pakistan standing beside it at all times….When we speak of this friendship as being taller than the Himalayas and deeper than the oceans it truly captures the essence of our relationship.”4 These remarks were greeted by whining from US spokesmen, including Idaho Republican Senator Risch.
The simmering strategic crisis between the United States and Pakistan exploded with full force on May 1, with the unilateral and unauthorized US commando raid alleged to have killed the phantomatic Osama bin Laden in a compound at Abottabad, a flagrant violation of Pakistan’s national sovereignty. The timing of this military stunt designed to inflame tensions between the two countries had nothing to do with any alleged Global War on Terror, and everything to do with the late March visit to Pakistan of Prince Bandar, the Saudi Arabian National Security Council chief. This visit had resulted in a de facto alliance between Islamabad and Riyadh, with Pakistan promising troops to put down any US-backed color revolution in the kingdom, while extending nuclear protection to the Saudis, thus making them less vulnerable to US extortion threats to abandon the oil-rich monarchy to the tender mercies of Tehran. A joint move by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to break out of the US empire, whatever one may think of these regimes, would represent a fatal blow for the fading US empire in South Asia.
As for the US claims concerning the supposed Bin Laden raid of May 1, they are a mass of hopeless contradictions which changes from day to day. An analysis of this story is best left to literary critics and writers of theatrical reviews. The only solid and uncontestable fact which emerges is that Pakistan is the leading US target — thus intensifying the anti-Pakistan US policy which has been in place since Obama’s infamous December 2009 West Point speech.
Gilani: Full Force Retaliation to Defend Pakistan’s Strategic Assets

The Chinese warning to Washington came on the heels of Gilani’s statement to the Pakistan Parliament declaring: “Let no one draw any wrong conclusions. Any attack against Pakistan’s strategic assets, whether overt or covert, will find a matching response…. Pakistan reserves the right to retaliate with full force. No one should underestimate the resolve and capability of our nation and armed forces to defend our sacred homeland.”5 A warning of full force retaliation from a nuclear power such as Pakistan needs to be taken seriously, even by the hardened aggressors of the Obama regime.
The strategic assets Gilani is talking about are the Pakistani nuclear forces, the key to the country’s deterrent strategy against possible aggression by India, egged on by Washington in the framework of the US-India nuclear cooperation accord. The US forces in Afghanistan have not been able to conceal their extensive planning for attempts to seize or destroy Pakistan’s nuclear bombs and warheads. According to a 2009 Fox News report, “The United States has a detailed plan for infiltrating Pakistan and securing its mobile arsenal of nuclear warheads if it appears the country is about to fall under the control of the Taliban, Al Qaeda or other Islamic extremists.” This plan was developed by General Stanley McChrystal when he headed the US Joint Special Operations Command at Fort Bragg, North Carolina. JSOC, the force reportedly involved in the Bin Laden operation. is composed of Army Delta Force, Navy SEALs and “a high-tech special intelligence unit known as Task Force Orange.” “Small units could seize [Pakistan’s nukes], disable them, and then centralize them in a secure location,” claimed a source quoted by Fox.6
Obama Has Already Approved Sneak Attack on Pakistan’s Nukes

According to the London Sunday Express, Obama has already approved an aggressive move along these lines: “US troops will be deployed in Pakistan if the nation’s nuclear installations come under threat from terrorists out to avenge the killing of Osama Bin Laden… The plan, which would be activated without President Zardari’s consent, provoked an angry reaction from Pakistan officials… Barack Obama would order troops to parachute in to protect key nuclear missile sites. These include the air force’s central Sargodha HQ, home base for nuclear-capable F-16 combat aircraft and at least 80 ballistic missiles.” According to a US official, “The plan is green lit and the President has already shown he is willing to deploy troops in Pakistan if he feels it is important for national security.”7
Extreme tension over this issue highlights the brinksmanship and incalculable folly of Obama’s May 1 unilateral raid, which might easily have been interpreted by the Pakistanis as the long-awaited attack on their nuclear forces. According to the New York Times, Obama knew very well he was courting immediate shooting war with Pakistan, and “insisted that the assault force hunting down Osama bin Laden last week be large enough to fight its way out of Pakistan if confronted by hostile local police officers and troops.”
The Shooting Has Already Started

The shooting between US and Pakistani forces escalated on Tuesday May 17, when a US NATO helicopter violated Pakistani airspace in Waziristan. Pakistani forces showed heightened alert status, and opened fire immediately, with the US helicopter shooting back. Two soldiers at a Pakistani check post on the border in the Datta Khel area were wounded.8
Possible Pakistani retaliation for this border incursion came in Peshawar on Friday, May 20, when a car bomb apparently targeted a 2-car US consulate convoy, but caused no American deaths or injuries. One Pakistani bystander was killed, and several wounded. In other intelligence warfare, Ary One television reported the name of the CIA station chief in Islamabad, the second top US resident spook there to have his cover blown in six months.
US Envoy Grossman Rejects Pakistani Calls To Stop Border Violations

US Special Representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan Marc Grossman, the replacement for the late Richard Holbrooke, on May 19 arrogantly rejected Pakistani calls for guarantees that no more Abottabad-style unilateral operations would be mounted in Pakistan.9 In refusing to offer such assurances, Grossman claimed that Pakistani officials had never demanded respect for their border in recent years.10
In the midst of this strategic crisis, India has gone ahead with inherently provocative scheduled military maneuvers targeting Pakistan. This is the “Vijayee Bhava” (Be Victorious) drill, held in the Thar desert of north Rajastan,. This atomic-biological-chemical Blitzkrieg drill involves the Second Armored Corps, “considered to be the most crucial of the Indian Army’s three principal strike formations tasked with virtually cutting Pakistan in two during a full-fledged war.”11
The Nation: A CIA-RAW-Mossad Pseudo-Taliban Countergang

One way to provide the provocation needed to justify a US-Indian attack on Pakistan would be through an increase in terrorist actions attributable to the so-called Taliban. According to the mainstream Pakistani media, the CIA, the Israeli Mossad, and the Indian RAW (Research and Analysis Wing) have created their own version of the Taliban in the form of a terrorist countergang which they control and direct. According to one account, “Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) operatives have infiltrated the Taliban and Al-Qaeda networks, and have created their own Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) force in order to destabilize Pakistan.” The former Punjab Regional Commander of the Pakistani Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI), retired Brigadier General Aslam Ghuman, commented: “During my visit to the US, I learned that the Israeli spy agency Mossad, in connivance with Indian agency RAW, under the direct supervision of CIA, planned to destabilize Pakistan at any cost.”12 Was this countergang responsible for last week’s double bombing in Waziristan, which killed 80 paramilitary police?
According to the same account, Russian intelligence “disclosed that CIA contractor Raymond Davis and his network had provided Al-Qaeda operatives with chemical, nuclear and biological weapons, so that US installations may be targeted and Pakistan be blamed….” Davis, a JSOC veteran himself, was arrested for the murder of two ISI agents, but then released by the Pakistani government after a suspicious hue and cry by the State Department.

(to be continued)

 

[twincougars]

(continuing)

CIA Claims The New Al Qaeda Boss Lives in Waziristan

If the US needs a further pretext for additional raids, it will also be easy to cite the alleged presence in Waziristan of Saif al-Adel, now touted by the CIA as bin Laden’s likely successor as boss of al Qaeda.13 It is doubtless convenient for Obama’s aggressive intentions that Saif al-Adel can be claimed to reside so close to what is now the hottest border in the world, and not in Finsbury or Flatbush.

In the wake of the unauthorized May 1 US raid, the Pakistani military chief General Kayani had issued his own warning that similar “misadventures” could not be repeated, while announcing that US personnel inside Pakistan would be sharply reduced. In the estimate of one ISI source, there are currently about 7,000 CIA operatives in country, many of them unknown to the Pakistani government. US-Pakistan intelligence sharing has reportedly been downgraded. In response to Kayani’s moves, the CIA limited hangout operation known as Wikileaks once again showed its real nature by attempting to discredit the Pakistan commander with dubious US cable reports that he had demanded more Predator drone attacks, not fewer, in recent years.

Especially since Obama’s West Point speech, the CIA has used Predator drone attacks to slaughter civilians with the goal of fomenting civil war inside Pakistan, leading to a breakup of the country along the ethnic lines of Punjab, Sind, Baluchistan, and Pushtunistan. The geopolitical goal is to destroy Pakistan’s potential to be the energy corridor between Iran and China. Selig Harrison has emerged as a top US advocate for Baluchistan succession.

Since May 1, six reported US Predator drones attacks have slain some 42 Pakistani civilians, goading public opinion into a frenzy of anti-US hatred. In response, a joint session of the Pakistani parliament voted unanimously on May 14 to demand an end to American missile strikes, calling on the government to cut NATO’s supply line to Afghanistan if the attacks should continue.14 Since the Karachi to Khyber Pass supply line carries as much as two thirds of the supplies needed by the Afghanistan invaders, such a cutoff would cause chaos among the NATO forces. All of this points to the inherent insanity of provoking war with the country your supply line runs through.

US Wants to Use Taliban Boss Mullah Omar Against Pakistan

The State Department dropped all preconditions for negotiating with the Taliban back in February, and the US is now reported by the Washington Post to be talking with envoys of Mullah Omar, the legendary one-eyed leader of the Quetta Shura or Taliban ruling council. It is apparent that the US is offering the Taliban an alliance against Pakistan. US regional envoy Grossman is hostile to the Pakistanis, but when it comes to the Taliban he has been nicknamed “Mr. Reconciliation.”15 By contrast, the US is said to be determined to assassinate the head of the Haqqani network using a Bin Laden-type raid. The Pakistanis are equally determined to keep the Haqqani as an ally.

If China stands behind Pakistan, then Russia might be said to stand behind China. Looking forward to the upcoming June 15 meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Chinese President Hu praised Sino-Russian relations as being “at an unprecedented high point,” with an “obvious strategic ingredient.” In a press conference this week, Russian President Medvedev was obliged indirectly to acknowledge that the much-hyped Obama “reset” with Russia had amounted to very little, since the US ABM missile program in Romania and the rest of eastern Europe, so obviously directed against Russia, means that the START treaty is of dubious value, thus raising the specter of a “new Cold War.” Given the NATO assault on Libya, there would be no UN resolution against Syria, said Medvedev. Putin has been right all along, and Medvedev is trying to imitate Putin to salvage some chance of remaining in power.
Are We in July 1914?

The crisis leading to World War I began with the Sarajevo assassinations of June 28, 1914, but the first major declaration of war did not occur until August 1. In the interim month of July 1914, large parts of European public opinion retreated into a dreamlike trance, an idyllic la-la land of elegiac illusion, even as the deadly crisis gathered momentum. Something similar can be seen today. Many Americans fondly imagine that the alleged death of Bin Laden marks the end of the war on terror and the Afghan War. Instead, the Bin Laden operation has clearly ushered in a new strategic emergency. Forces which had opposed the Iraq war, from MSNBC to many left liberals of the peace movement, are variously supporting Obama’s bloody aggression in Libya, or even celebrating him as a more effective warmonger than Bush-Cheney because of his supposed success at the expense of Bin Laden. In reality, if there were ever a time to mobilize to stop a new and wider war, this is it.

 

[Warthog]

Lets just get this over with now!

 

[energy_wave]

WikiLeaks: US raised concerns about safety of Pakistan's nuclear assets...

http://www.ndtv.com/article/wikilea...out-safety-of-pakistans-nuclear-assets-108219

 

[milkydoo]

I thought Iran was supposed to be our next target. What happened? Revolts start happening all over, we're at war in Lybia, and now we're laying the groundwork for Pakistan. Is Iran on the back burner now?

 

[Kent]

I thought Iran was supposed to be our next target. What happened? Revolts start happening all over, we're at war in Lybia, and now we're laying the groundwork for Pakistan. Is Iran on the back burner now?

Persia (Iran) must attack Israel at some point in the near future.

 

[twincougars]

milkydoo, you ask about Iran? IT's still in play, as is Saudi Arabia, believe it or not! Whether or not the US is directly involved, a ME blowup is certainly going to affect us, especially with these countries involved. See report excerpts below:

http://www.whitecapresearch.com/wcr...303&s=358270&u=49139946&l=260743&g=291&r=Milo

Dear Reader,

Hello. My name is Karim Rahemtulla.

In the days following the collapse of the Mubarak regime, I paid a visit to Egypt. ...

And based on my visit to the Middle East frontlines, I’m 100% convinced that a massive geopolitical event is now imminent....

While I have it on very good faith that a firestorm will rip through the market in the coming months, and push the upside potential of one very specific investment to astronomical heights...

Whether that firestorm actually happens or not doesn’t matter much.

I know that sounds completely counterintuitive, but let me explain.

You see, the very perception (or expectation) of an outcome is oftentimes all you need to earn tremendous gains.
...

Heck, I had to risk life and limb – traveling to the most volatile region on Earth – to find this one.

But now that I’m safely back on U.S. soil, it was well worth the trip...

Only Two
Outcomes Exist...
...

In a moment, I’ll tell you about the shocking scenario described by my contacts in Old Cairo.
...

I landed in Cairo seven hours late at 9:00 PM. The usually crowded airport was entirely empty – an eerie feeling when you’re on foreign soil in the midst of a revolution.

Some of the buildings were still smoldering from the chaos.

Just days prior, hundreds of thousands of protesters in Cairo, Alexandria and Suez were clashing with pro-Mubarak forces. Protesters occupied Cairo’s Tahrir Square for 18 days.

The violence killed more than 300 people, according to the United Nations, with police sometimes firing on demonstrators.

My closest friends and family cautioned me against making the trip.

But I went anyway, knowing I could leverage my familiarity with the region’s customs and cultures, and gain very privileged access to neighborhoods where mainstream reporters DARE NOT ENTER.

You see, I was born in Mombasa with a heritage from northern India. And having such a lineage truly matters in the Middle East.

Without it, in the backstreets and poorest villages of Old Cairo – where I was – you could end up dead. Literally.

I didn’t have a choice, really.

My latest recommendation absolutely required that I hit the frontlines and gauge the sentiment of the masses.

Pardon my bluntness, but the people are mad as hell.

They’re tired of decades of oppressive rule.

They’re sick of rich dictators with palaces for every family member.

They’re fed up with high unemployment – particularly the youth, who are always first to take to the streets.

They’re too poor to see a doctor when they’re sick – despite the trillions of barrels of oil beneath their feet.

And, most importantly, they want BLOOD – not deals.

Iran is Already Near its Breaking Point

Two years ago, on June 15, hundreds of thousands of fist-waving Iranians hit the capital to denounce President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's claim to victory in a disputed election.

It quickly turned violent when, pro-government gunmen – standing on rooftops – opened fire on a group of protesters, killing one man and wounding several others.

After days of protests, order was restored.

However, my intelligence suggests that a similar uprising could be close at hand. Perhaps on the two-year anniversary of the 2009 protests.

Only this one would likely be much bigger, given the thirst for revolution spreading through the entire Middle East.

Can you appreciate what effect such an uprising will have on the perception of oil prices?

My sources tell me that – this very moment – in an effort to keep the masses quiet, the government is tolerating men wearing short-sleeve shirts and women wearing scarves farther back on their heads

Understand that Iran is a very rigid religious state. People are viciously beaten for listening to music. Women dare not wear makeup – the consequences are far too costly.

So, when viewed through such an unyielding lens, the government’s ‘relaxed’ standards likely demonstrate how close the feeling of unrest is to reaching critical mass.
...

It’s long been said in the Middle East that Arabs cannot make war without Egypt.

Well, Egypt has spoken loud and clear. And the Arab world is listening.

This very moment, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Pakistan, Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Iran are all in periods of civil unrest.

And my intelligence suggests that the pent-up rage will soon escalate into a full-blown siege on the prevailing governments in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

When (or if) it happens, crude production will be brought to its knees, as the region’s oil fields inevitably become the target of protesters. And the ensuing effect on oil prices would be extraordinary.

But whether one of these major regional powerhouses topples or not doesn’t matter.

The very perception of instability is enough to send oil prices through the roof. For my readers, this provides the ULTIMATE catalyst.

Like I said earlier, the upside potential is virtually limitless. Yet the downside is strategically limited.

A Cab Driver Speaks for
An Entire Population

My driver was a man named Ahmed.

He transports people, tourists, businessmen and even government officials around the city every day. Ahmed was once the driver for former president Anwar Sadat.

He hears everything. And sees everything.

He spoke of a corrupt system that’s all about how connected you are to the government – whose son you know... whose cousin you are... etc.

Getting ahead is more about ‘bakshish’ (bribes) than hard work... and the little guys are getting hurt. Badly!

Consider: The car and driver cost me $100 per day, which works out to around $3,000 per month.

Yet Ahmed’s take is only $100 per month – plus whatever tips he can scrounge up.

When I asked him about the toppling of Mubarak, he told me that he was sincerely grateful for it, while also calling attention to how superior Anwar Sadat’s tenure was.

Sadat was a man of the people, who always appeared in public and not in some glass enclosed ‘Pope Mobile’ like Mubarak. And that was on the infrequent occasions when Mubarak actually appeared in public.

Ahmed says the revolution is a good thing, but he's worried about where his next meal will come from... and about whether – in Egypt – the army will take over power.

He spoke passionately about how the crisis in Egypt only marked the beginning of a wider-scale movement.

When I visited the countryside, I heard the same story.

Having crisscrossed the region for thousands of years, the desert-dwelling Bedouins also expect the unrest to spread further.

It’s hard to capture in words, but there are MILLIONS of disenfranchised people – with virtually nothing to lose – ready for insurrection.

Their collective rage transcends age, as well. Ahmed is in his 70s. Yet the feelings are much more intense in the younger generation – the ones ready to take to the streets at any moment.

Three major countries are severely at risk – Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Having gauged the anger and ambition of the masses – firsthand – it’s very unlikely that all three nations will still be on the map in a year’s time.

But, again, these nations needn’t topple for the price of oil to skyrocket. The very perception of instability alone is enough for the price to start pushing higher.
...

Scenario #1: Pakistan
(Perception Level - 7)

Pakistan is very close to tipping into chaos.

Military police force is the real power in the country, and it has strong ties to the Taliban... and by extension, to Al Qaeda.

The United States is currently using Pakistan for target practice, flying drones to pick-off rebel leaders who journey across from Afghanistan.

Pakistan is poor, has few natural resources and too many lawless regions to accurately count.

The only reason it hasn’t toppled yet is because of the vast amount of U.S. aid, which funnels to the powers that control the military and government.

As you’d expect in a country as corrupt as Pakistan, the aid is mostly pocketed by crooked officials. And it seldom – if ever – trickles down to the poor, who need it most.

Disenchanted, those folks invariably join forces with the ‘generous’ Taliban, who, in turn, indoctrinate them with hate.


The Bottom Line on Pakistan
Pakistan’s leadership changes frequently, usually as a result of a coup or assassination. The country is a nuclear threat to India, too, making the storyline tenser still.

Pakistan doesn’t have much oil relative to resource-rich Iran and Saudi Arabia. As such, our upside potential here – although still in the triple-digits – is limited.

Because prices can be greatly influenced by the perception of instability alone, more civil unrest in Pakistan should shoot the price of oil to $120/barrel.

In this scenario, I’m projecting returns of around 120%.


Scenario #2: Iran
(Perception Level - 8)

As I said earlier, the situation in Iran is at a boiling point, as the Mullahs lose their grip on the population.

Most of today’s populace wasn’t around when the 1979 religious revolution took place... or was too young to remember it... or they’re in exile...

Or they’re just tired of the corruption and the abysmal standard of living in a country that touts the world's third-largest oil reserves.

A revolution in Iran would likely take millions of barrels of oil off the market for a discernable length of time.

And who knows what type of damage the oil fields would suffer if a Libya-type uprising develops.

Iran is highly militarized, and if the revolution isn’t peaceful – as all prior indications point – it could send shockwaves through the Gulf.

Worse yet, Iran controls the strategic Gulf of Hormuz – the major shipping channel for oil from the Persian Gulf.


The Bottom Line on Iran
Iran is a totalitarian, religious regime, which means it won’t go down quickly or lightly. And President Ahmadinejad surely knows what often happens to leaders of violent regimes – they die very painful deaths.

Iran could also launch a preemptive strike on Israel or Saudi Arabia. (Take note that Iranians are not Arabs or Sunnis... and they detest both.)

Because prices can be greatly influenced by the perception of instability alone, more civil unrest in Iran should shoot the price of oil to $150/barrel.

In this scenario, I’m projecting returns of around 200%.


Scenario #3: Saudi Arabia
(Perception Level - 9)

As a nation that practices a radical form of Islam known as Wahhabism, Saudi Arabia represents the ‘coup de gras’ for the play, given how it’s blessed with the world’s largest oil reserves.

In recent months, the Saudis have been facing lower-level protests – ones that shouldn’t be taken lightly.

What’s more, the Saudis have a history of dealing with homegrown terrorism, and those terrorists would now seem to have greater incentive than ever before.

Making matters even more portentous, Saudi leadership is aging and succession plans are cloudy at best.

Up until now, the Saudis have been able to ‘buy’ peace. However, if revolution wins out, it would be a bloodbath.

The Saudis have no aversion to using extreme force. And it has a strong ally in the United States, which is ready to come to the Saudis’ aid at the drop of a hat.


The Bottom Line on Saudi Arabia
The Saudis are part of a treaty that obligates it to aid neighboring countries should a problem arise.

Using its vast arsenal – Saudi Arabia spends the largest share of GDP of any country on weapons each year – it recently marched into Bahrain to help quell an uprising.

However, such actions could come back to haunt the Saudis, as it spawns more animosity among the people.

More than any country on Earth, further unrest in Saudi Arabia – which is likely – would trigger massive speculation on oil. The perception of instability alone could send oil prices skyrocketing above $150.

Because prices can be greatly influenced by the perception of instability alone, more civil unrest in Saudi Arabia should shoot the price of oil to $300/barrel.


Scenario #4: Mass Chaos
(Perception Level 10)
...

Should this happen, the very idea that Middle East oil production could grind to a halt would likely send a barrel of crude as high as $400. Maybe more.
.....

 

[mecoastie]

milkydoo, you ask about Iran? IT's still in play, as is Saudi Arabia, believe it or not! Whether or not the US is directly involved, a ME blowup is certainly going to affect us, especially with these countries involved. See report excerpts below:

http://www.whitecapresearch.com/wcr...303&s=358270&u=49139946&l=260743&g=291&r=Milo

Dear Reader,

Hello. My name is Karim Rahemtulla.

In the days following the collapse of the Mubarak regime, I paid a visit to Egypt. ...

And based on my visit to the Middle East frontlines, I’m 100% convinced that a massive geopolitical event is now imminent....

While I have it on very good faith that a firestorm will rip through the market in the coming months, and push the upside potential of one very specific investment to astronomical heights...

Whether that firestorm actually happens or not doesn’t matter much.

I know that sounds completely counterintuitive, but let me explain.

You see, the very perception (or expectation) of an outcome is oftentimes all you need to earn tremendous gains.
...

Heck, I had to risk life and limb – traveling to the most volatile region on Earth – to find this one.

But now that I’m safely back on U.S. soil, it was well worth the trip...

Only Two
Outcomes Exist...
...

In a moment, I’ll tell you about the shocking scenario described by my contacts in Old Cairo.
...

I landed in Cairo seven hours late at 9:00 PM. The usually crowded airport was entirely empty – an eerie feeling when you’re on foreign soil in the midst of a revolution.

Some of the buildings were still smoldering from the chaos.

Just days prior, hundreds of thousands of protesters in Cairo, Alexandria and Suez were clashing with pro-Mubarak forces. Protesters occupied Cairo’s Tahrir Square for 18 days.

The violence killed more than 300 people, according to the United Nations, with police sometimes firing on demonstrators.

My closest friends and family cautioned me against making the trip.

But I went anyway, knowing I could leverage my familiarity with the region’s customs and cultures, and gain very privileged access to neighborhoods where mainstream reporters DARE NOT ENTER.

You see, I was born in Mombasa with a heritage from northern India. And having such a lineage truly matters in the Middle East.

Without it, in the backstreets and poorest villages of Old Cairo – where I was – you could end up dead. Literally.

I didn’t have a choice, really.

My latest recommendation absolutely required that I hit the frontlines and gauge the sentiment of the masses.

Pardon my bluntness, but the people are mad as hell.

They’re tired of decades of oppressive rule.

They’re sick of rich dictators with palaces for every family member.

They’re fed up with high unemployment – particularly the youth, who are always first to take to the streets.

They’re too poor to see a doctor when they’re sick – despite the trillions of barrels of oil beneath their feet.

And, most importantly, they want BLOOD – not deals.

Iran is Already Near its Breaking Point

Two years ago, on June 15, hundreds of thousands of fist-waving Iranians hit the capital to denounce President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's claim to victory in a disputed election.

It quickly turned violent when, pro-government gunmen – standing on rooftops – opened fire on a group of protesters, killing one man and wounding several others.

After days of protests, order was restored.

However, my intelligence suggests that a similar uprising could be close at hand. Perhaps on the two-year anniversary of the 2009 protests.

Only this one would likely be much bigger, given the thirst for revolution spreading through the entire Middle East.

Can you appreciate what effect such an uprising will have on the perception of oil prices?

My sources tell me that – this very moment – in an effort to keep the masses quiet, the government is tolerating men wearing short-sleeve shirts and women wearing scarves farther back on their heads

Understand that Iran is a very rigid religious state. People are viciously beaten for listening to music. Women dare not wear makeup – the consequences are far too costly.

So, when viewed through such an unyielding lens, the government’s ‘relaxed’ standards likely demonstrate how close the feeling of unrest is to reaching critical mass.
...

It’s long been said in the Middle East that Arabs cannot make war without Egypt.

Well, Egypt has spoken loud and clear. And the Arab world is listening.

This very moment, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Pakistan, Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Iran are all in periods of civil unrest.

And my intelligence suggests that the pent-up rage will soon escalate into a full-blown siege on the prevailing governments in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

When (or if) it happens, crude production will be brought to its knees, as the region’s oil fields inevitably become the target of protesters. And the ensuing effect on oil prices would be extraordinary.

But whether one of these major regional powerhouses topples or not doesn’t matter.

The very perception of instability is enough to send oil prices through the roof. For my readers, this provides the ULTIMATE catalyst.

Like I said earlier, the upside potential is virtually limitless. Yet the downside is strategically limited.

A Cab Driver Speaks for
An Entire Population

My driver was a man named Ahmed.

He transports people, tourists, businessmen and even government officials around the city every day. Ahmed was once the driver for former president Anwar Sadat.

He hears everything. And sees everything.

He spoke of a corrupt system that’s all about how connected you are to the government – whose son you know... whose cousin you are... etc.

Getting ahead is more about ‘bakshish’ (bribes) than hard work... and the little guys are getting hurt. Badly!

Consider: The car and driver cost me $100 per day, which works out to around $3,000 per month.

Yet Ahmed’s take is only $100 per month – plus whatever tips he can scrounge up.

When I asked him about the toppling of Mubarak, he told me that he was sincerely grateful for it, while also calling attention to how superior Anwar Sadat’s tenure was.

Sadat was a man of the people, who always appeared in public and not in some glass enclosed ‘Pope Mobile’ like Mubarak. And that was on the infrequent occasions when Mubarak actually appeared in public.

Ahmed says the revolution is a good thing, but he's worried about where his next meal will come from... and about whether – in Egypt – the army will take over power.

He spoke passionately about how the crisis in Egypt only marked the beginning of a wider-scale movement.

When I visited the countryside, I heard the same story.

Having crisscrossed the region for thousands of years, the desert-dwelling Bedouins also expect the unrest to spread further.

It’s hard to capture in words, but there are MILLIONS of disenfranchised people – with virtually nothing to lose – ready for insurrection.

Their collective rage transcends age, as well. Ahmed is in his 70s. Yet the feelings are much more intense in the younger generation – the ones ready to take to the streets at any moment.

Three major countries are severely at risk – Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Having gauged the anger and ambition of the masses – firsthand – it’s very unlikely that all three nations will still be on the map in a year’s time.

But, again, these nations needn’t topple for the price of oil to skyrocket. The very perception of instability alone is enough for the price to start pushing higher.
...

Scenario #1: Pakistan
(Perception Level - 7)

Pakistan is very close to tipping into chaos.

Military police force is the real power in the country, and it has strong ties to the Taliban... and by extension, to Al Qaeda.

The United States is currently using Pakistan for target practice, flying drones to pick-off rebel leaders who journey across from Afghanistan.

Pakistan is poor, has few natural resources and too many lawless regions to accurately count.

The only reason it hasn’t toppled yet is because of the vast amount of U.S. aid, which funnels to the powers that control the military and government.

As you’d expect in a country as corrupt as Pakistan, the aid is mostly pocketed by crooked officials. And it seldom – if ever – trickles down to the poor, who need it most.

Disenchanted, those folks invariably join forces with the ‘generous’ Taliban, who, in turn, indoctrinate them with hate.


The Bottom Line on Pakistan
Pakistan’s leadership changes frequently, usually as a result of a coup or assassination. The country is a nuclear threat to India, too, making the storyline tenser still.

Pakistan doesn’t have much oil relative to resource-rich Iran and Saudi Arabia. As such, our upside potential here – although still in the triple-digits – is limited.

Because prices can be greatly influenced by the perception of instability alone, more civil unrest in Pakistan should shoot the price of oil to $120/barrel.

In this scenario, I’m projecting returns of around 120%.


Scenario #2: Iran
(Perception Level - 8)

As I said earlier, the situation in Iran is at a boiling point, as the Mullahs lose their grip on the population.

Most of today’s populace wasn’t around when the 1979 religious revolution took place... or was too young to remember it... or they’re in exile...

Or they’re just tired of the corruption and the abysmal standard of living in a country that touts the world's third-largest oil reserves.

A revolution in Iran would likely take millions of barrels of oil off the market for a discernable length of time.

And who knows what type of damage the oil fields would suffer if a Libya-type uprising develops.

Iran is highly militarized, and if the revolution isn’t peaceful – as all prior indications point – it could send shockwaves through the Gulf.

Worse yet, Iran controls the strategic Gulf of Hormuz – the major shipping channel for oil from the Persian Gulf.


The Bottom Line on Iran
Iran is a totalitarian, religious regime, which means it won’t go down quickly or lightly. And President Ahmadinejad surely knows what often happens to leaders of violent regimes – they die very painful deaths.

Iran could also launch a preemptive strike on Israel or Saudi Arabia. (Take note that Iranians are not Arabs or Sunnis... and they detest both.)

Because prices can be greatly influenced by the perception of instability alone, more civil unrest in Iran should shoot the price of oil to $150/barrel.

In this scenario, I’m projecting returns of around 200%.


Scenario #3: Saudi Arabia
(Perception Level - 9)

As a nation that practices a radical form of Islam known as Wahhabism, Saudi Arabia represents the ‘coup de gras’ for the play, given how it’s blessed with the world’s largest oil reserves.

In recent months, the Saudis have been facing lower-level protests – ones that shouldn’t be taken lightly.

What’s more, the Saudis have a history of dealing with homegrown terrorism, and those terrorists would now seem to have greater incentive than ever before.

Making matters even more portentous, Saudi leadership is aging and succession plans are cloudy at best.

Up until now, the Saudis have been able to ‘buy’ peace. However, if revolution wins out, it would be a bloodbath.

The Saudis have no aversion to using extreme force. And it has a strong ally in the United States, which is ready to come to the Saudis’ aid at the drop of a hat.


The Bottom Line on Saudi Arabia
The Saudis are part of a treaty that obligates it to aid neighboring countries should a problem arise.

Using its vast arsenal – Saudi Arabia spends the largest share of GDP of any country on weapons each year – it recently marched into Bahrain to help quell an uprising.

However, such actions could come back to haunt the Saudis, as it spawns more animosity among the people.

More than any country on Earth, further unrest in Saudi Arabia – which is likely – would trigger massive speculation on oil. The perception of instability alone could send oil prices skyrocketing above $150.

Because prices can be greatly influenced by the perception of instability alone, more civil unrest in Saudi Arabia should shoot the price of oil to $300/barrel.


Scenario #4: Mass Chaos
(Perception Level 10)
...

Should this happen, the very idea that Middle East oil production could grind to a halt would likely send a barrel of crude as high as $400. Maybe more.
.....

This guy sounds like he is trying very hard to drum up investments so he can makes some money. He has some very good points but I take anyone providing info like this and then saying invest with me so we can capitalize on this cautiously. He is a speculator.

 

[jed turtle]

This guy sounds like he is trying very hard to drum up investments so he can makes some money. He has some very good points but I take anyone providing info like this and then saying invest with me so we can capitalize on this cautiously. He is a speculator.

no doubt, but sounds to me like he's done his homework...

 

[astrobee]

I think Mr. PHD Webster is full of it, need more evidence than what he provided. I could make this sh*t up too.

He said -

"This blunt warning represents the first known strategic ultimatum received by the United States in half a century, going back to Soviet warnings during the Berlin crisis of 1958-1961, and indicates the grave danger of general war growing out of the US-Pakistan confrontation."

Bullshit. The Russians warned us with WW3 repeatedly during the Kosovo crisis. But they could only blow steam back then, and steam is the only military asset the Chinese have against us too. Why would they commit suicide attacking us? They are the paper tigers, not us.

 

[gelatinous]

While the saber rattling is going on for public show, Pakistan isn't going to give up the billions in military aid they receive yearly from the US. IF China were to step in with financial aid, that would be a direct challenge to the US. Then it wouldn't get pretty.

 

[DelRayMan]

if we go to war in the ME so be it.
one important thing,
IF IT MOVES, KILL IT.

if we don't fight like they do, we will loose.

 

[momof23goats]

you right of course, and watch what is already in our country. ya never know what or whom is coming across our borders.

 

[DelRayMan]

you right of course, and watch what is already in our country. ya never know what or whom is coming across our borders.

not to worry, napolotano(sp) says our borders are safe. relax and have a beer.

 

[denfoote]

OK. Now here is what's really gonna happen.

All the Arab States, Iran, Libya, and the rest will join (be lead by) Russia to wipe out Israel. That's what this whole thing is about.

Ezekiel 38 (New King James Version)

Ezekiel 38

Gog and Allies Attack Israel

1 Now the word of the LORD came to me, saying, 2 “Son of man, set your face against Gog, of the land of Magog, the prince of Rosh,[a] Meshech, and Tubal, and prophesy against him, 3 and say, ‘Thus says the Lord GOD: “Behold, I am against you, O Gog, the prince of Rosh, Meshech, and Tubal. 4 I will turn you around, put hooks into your jaws, and lead you out, with all your army, horses, and horsemen, all splendidly clothed, a great company with bucklers and shields, all of them handling swords. 5 Persia, Ethiopia, and Libya[c] are with them, all of them with shield and helmet; 6 Gomer and all its troops; the house of Togarmah from the far north and all its troops—many people are with you.
7 “Prepare yourself and be ready, you and all your companies that are gathered about you; and be a guard for them. 8 After many days you will be visited. In the latter years you will come into the land of those brought back from the sword and gathered from many people on the mountains of Israel, which had long been desolate; they were brought out of the nations, and now all of them dwell safely. 9 You will ascend, coming like a storm, covering the land like a cloud, you and all your troops and many peoples with you.”
10 ‘Thus says the Lord GOD: “On that day it shall come to pass that thoughts will arise in your mind, and you will make an evil plan: 11 You will say, ‘I will go up against a land of unwalled villages; I will go to a peaceful people, who dwell safely, all of them dwelling without walls, and having neither bars nor gates’— 12 to take plunder and to take booty, to stretch out your hand against the waste places that are again inhabited, and against a people gathered from the nations, who have acquired livestock and goods, who dwell in the midst of the land. 13 Sheba, Dedan, the merchants of Tarshish, and all their young lions will say to you, ‘Have you come to take plunder? Have you gathered your army to take booty, to carry away silver and gold, to take away livestock and goods, to take great plunder?’”’
14 “Therefore, son of man, prophesy and say to Gog, ‘Thus says the Lord GOD: “On that day when My people Israel dwell safely, will you not know it? 15 Then you will come from your place out of the far north, you and many peoples with you, all of them riding on horses, a great company and a mighty army. 16 You will come up against My people Israel like a cloud, to cover the land. It will be in the latter days that I will bring you against My land, so that the nations may know Me, when I am hallowed in you, O Gog, before their eyes.” 17 Thus says the Lord GOD: “Are you he of whom I have spoken in former days by My servants the prophets of Israel, who prophesied for years in those days that I would bring you against them?
Judgment on Gog

18 “And it will come to pass at the same time, when Gog comes against the land of Israel,” says the Lord GOD, “that My fury will show in My face. 19 For in My jealousy and in the fire of My wrath I have spoken: ‘Surely in that day there shall be a great earthquake in the land of Israel, 20 so that the fish of the sea, the birds of the heavens, the beasts of the field, all creeping things that creep on the earth, and all men who are on the face of the earth shall shake at My presence. The mountains shall be thrown down, the steep places shall fall, and every wall shall fall to the ground.’ 21 I will call for a sword against Gog throughout all My mountains,” says the Lord GOD. “Every man’s sword will be against his brother. 22 And I will bring him to judgment with pestilence and bloodshed; I will rain down on him, on his troops, and on the many peoples who are with him, flooding rain, great hailstones, fire, and brimstone. 23 Thus I will magnify Myself and sanctify Myself, and I will be known in the eyes of many nations. Then they shall know that I am the LORD.”’

The Arabs and Ruskies are gonna get theirs, Living God style!!!

Ezekiel 39

Gog’s Armies Destroyed

1 “And you, son of man, prophesy against Gog, and say, ‘Thus says the Lord GOD: “Behold, I am against you, O Gog, the prince of Rosh,[a] Meshech, and Tubal; 2 and I will turn you around and lead you on, bringing you up from the far north, and bring you against the mountains of Israel. 3 Then I will knock the bow out of your left hand, and cause the arrows to fall out of your right hand. 4 You shall fall upon the mountains of Israel, you and all your troops and the peoples who are with you; I will give you to birds of prey of every sort and to the beasts of the field to be devoured. 5 You shall fall on the open field; for I have spoken,” says the Lord GOD. 6 “And I will send fire on Magog and on those who live in security in the coastlands. Then they shall know that I am the LORD. 7 So I will make My holy name known in the midst of My people Israel, and I will not let them profane My holy name anymore. Then the nations shall know that I am the LORD, the Holy One in Israel. 8 Surely it is coming, and it shall be done,” says the Lord GOD. “This is the day of which I have spoken.
9 “Then those who dwell in the cities of Israel will go out and set on fire and burn the weapons, both the shields and bucklers, the bows and arrows, the javelins and spears; and they will make fires with them for seven years. 10 They will not take wood from the field nor cut down any from the forests, because they will make fires with the weapons; and they will plunder those who plundered them, and pillage those who pillaged them,” says the Lord GOD.

The Burial of Gog

11 “It will come to pass in that day that I will give Gog a burial place there in Israel, the valley of those who pass by east of the sea; and it will obstruct travelers, because there they will bury Gog and all his multitude. Therefore they will call it the Valley of Hamon Gog. 12 For seven months the house of Israel will be burying them, in order to cleanse the land. 13 Indeed all the people of the land will be burying, and they will gain renown for it on the day that I am glorified,” says the Lord GOD. 14 “They will set apart men regularly employed, with the help of a search party,[c] to pass through the land and bury those bodies remaining on the ground, in order to cleanse it. At the end of seven months they will make a search. 15 The search party will pass through the land; and when anyone sees a man’s bone, he shall set up a marker by it, till the buriers have buried it in the Valley of Hamon Gog. 16 The name of the city will also be Hamonah. Thus they shall cleanse the land.”’
A Triumphant Festival

17 “And as for you, son of man, thus says the Lord GOD, ‘Speak to every sort of bird and to every beast of the field:


“ Assemble yourselves and come;
Gather together from all sides to My sacrificial meal
Which I am sacrificing for you,
A great sacrificial meal on the mountains of Israel,
That you may eat flesh and drink blood.
18 You shall eat the flesh of the mighty,
Drink the blood of the princes of the earth,
Of rams and lambs,
Of goats and bulls,
All of them fatlings of Bashan.
19 You shall eat fat till you are full,
And drink blood till you are drunk,
At My sacrificial meal
Which I am sacrificing for you.
20 You shall be filled at My table
With horses and riders,
With mighty men
And with all the men of war,” says the Lord GOD.
Israel Restored to the Land

21 “I will set My glory among the nations; all the nations shall see My judgment which I have executed, and My hand which I have laid on them. 22 So the house of Israel shall know that I am the LORD their God from that day forward. 23 The Gentiles shall know that the house of Israel went into captivity for their iniquity; because they were unfaithful to Me, therefore I hid My face from them. I gave them into the hand of their enemies, and they all fell by the sword. 24 According to their uncleanness and according to their transgressions I have dealt with them, and hidden My face from them.”’
25 “Therefore thus says the Lord GOD: ‘Now I will bring back the captives of Jacob, and have mercy on the whole house of Israel; and I will be jealous for My holy name— 26 after they have borne their shame, and all their unfaithfulness in which they were unfaithful to Me, when they dwelt safely in their own land and no one made them afraid. 27 When I have brought them back from the peoples and gathered them out of their enemies’ lands, and I am hallowed in them in the sight of many nations, 28 then they shall know that I am the LORD their God, who sent them into captivity among the nations, but also brought them back to their land, and left none of them captive any longer. 29 And I will not hide My face from them anymore; for I shall have poured out My Spirit on the house of Israel,’ says the Lord GOD.”


Don't think we are going to escape!!!
I think verse 6 above refers to US!!!
Obama, the anti Christ, has already kicked Israel under the bus and God is cleaning His weapon.

 

[WildDaisy]

I dont think verse 6 is us. We're out of here way before that.

Remember, in order for God to get the Glory, the US has to either choose to not come to Israels help, or be hindered from it.

With Obamas stance these days, and the economy, plus being stretched thin with too many wars, and the possibility of natural disasters that are increasing as we speak, we wont be able to aid Israel.

It will be a miracle of God, not by the might of mortal men that Israel is saved.

The US will need to long be out of the picture for that to happen (either physically, economically, or politically).