ECON Unemployment and economy: June 2010

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Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
Link: http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...oyment-in-u-s-rises-to-record-34-4-weeks.html

Excerpts:

"The average duration of unemployment jumped to 34.4 weeks in May from 33 weeks the prior month and 16.5 weeks in December 2007, when the recession began, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The number of unemployed has almost doubled to 15 million since the start of worst slump since the 1930s...."

"........ Private payrolls rose by 41,000 in May, today’s Labor Department report showed, trailing the 180,000 gain forecast by economists. Including government workers, employment rose by 431,000, boosted by a jump in hiring of temporary census workers. The jobless rate fell to 9.7 percent from 9.9 percent as Americans discouraged by the lack of available jobs dropped out of the labor force.

“If that level of private job creation continues, it will not make a substantial dent in the unemployment rate,” Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart told reporters today after a speech in Braselton, Georgia. “It is my view we will make progress on unemployment. Perhaps by the end of 2011, we will be below 9 percent.”

That's 18 months away, folks....
 
N

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
From the same AP article:

"To lower the unemployment rate from the current 9.7 percent to a more normal 6 percent would require roughly a net 15 million new jobs by the end of 2016, estimates Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist at IHS Global Insight.

Few think that's likely."
 
N

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
And from that article from AP:

...."Overall, the economy has created a net 982,000 jobs this year. But for Jeff Martinez and the record 6.76 million others who have struck out for six months or more, their struggles are getting worse, not better."

When you add that to what the NY Times said in the recent article I posted on foreclosure and home mortgages that said...Foreclosure procedures have been initiated against 1.7 million of the nation’s households.

That's about 8 million households affected right now, allowing for some crossover. What's next?
 
N

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
Self-employment Assistance for Unemployed:

Link: http://workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/unemploy/self.asp

Self-Employment Assistance
Purpose

Self-Employment Assistance offers dislocated workers the opportunity for early re-employment. The program is designed to encourage and enable unemployed workers to create their own jobs by starting their own small businesses. Under these programs, States can pay a self-employed allowance, instead of regular unemployment insurance benefits, to help unemployed workers while they are establishing businesses and becoming self-employed. Participants receive weekly allowances while they are getting their businesses off the ground.

This is a voluntary program for States and, to date, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Pennsylvania have Self-Employment Assistance programs. The State Workforce Agency web sites for these states can be accessed at: http://www.servicelocator.org/OWSLinks.asp.
 
etc

etc

Inactive
yeah, you drop out from job - seeking and no longer counted. The gov solution to the job problem.
 
U

UncurledA

Inactive
Nuthatch said:
Self-employment Assistance for Unemployed:

Link: http://workforcesecurity.doleta.gov/unemploy/self.asp

Self-Employment Assistance
Purpose

Self-Employment Assistance offers dislocated workers the opportunity for early re-employment. The program is designed to encourage and enable unemployed workers to create their own jobs by starting their own small businesses. Under these programs, States can pay a self-employed allowance, instead of regular unemployment insurance benefits, to help unemployed workers while they are establishing businesses and becoming self-employed. Participants receive weekly allowances while they are getting their businesses off the ground.

This is a voluntary program for States and, to date, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Pennsylvania have Self-Employment Assistance programs. The State Workforce Agency web sites for these states can be accessed at: http://www.servicelocator.org/OWSLinks.asp.
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Totally nuts. Over 90% of small business startups fail in the first 5 years, and that is in good times. That's also without the incentive to go into fanciful small businesses that subsidizing their establishment would encourage.

Also totally unfair. Small business owners who have recently close their doors, and there are also millions of those, wouldn't qualify, as they don't qualify for UI. They are also hugely undercounted in surveying the unemployed, for a few reasons.

Add in the underemployed, and those who have dropped out of the labor force and are therefore not counted, and people who have reclassified themselves as students in a desperate attempt to get some "skills" ( an ephemeral concept lately ), and this new socialist program wil fail from the start. There are simply too many people without jobs to begin doing each others' laundry as small businesses.
 
N

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
COBRA Health Care Subsidies End:

Excerpt:

....."Initially, COBRA had to be paid 100% by the employee. But when the economy took a turn for the worse and left millions unemployed and unable to afford health insurance, Congress took action and a bill was passed to subsidize COBRA at a rate of 65%, leaving unemployed workers responsible for only 35% of their COBRA payment. The subsidy was available for those who were laid off between September of 2008 and May 31st of this year.

The subsidy is now expired, meaning anyone losing their job on or after June 1st will have to pay the full COBRA amount......"

Link: http://www.healthnews.com/family-health/cobra-health-care-subsidies-end-4285.html
 
annieosage

annieosage

Inactive
UNEMPLOYMENT EXTENSIONS

My original 26 weeks ends next week. If Congress does not vote this week to renew the continuation of unemployment benefits, we will lose everything including our home.

Of course there are those here on this board and others who think this is a form of welfare and say I should take ANY job. At this point, I would. Too bad I can't find one. i NEVER thought I would be in this position at this age. So say what you will I don't care anymore.

This sucks.....:shk:
 
China Connection

China Connection

TB Fanatic
Don't worry about unemployment as the elite have the solution in hand. They call it depopulation.

http://www.newswithviews.com/Levant/nancy35.htm

In August 1980, Howard Odum stated in Fusion Magazine: "The United States has a new and exciting leadership role in the world. We will lead the world down. We will help the world down to a lower plateau in energy use." Global planners and their think tank social circles believe "it is necessary that the United States cut its population by two-thirds within the next fifty years." 2/3rds? Hmmm. Just how does one do that minus MONUMENTAL crisis? Does the media darling “pandemic” ring a bell?

And then there is the "Global 2000 Report to the President" and "Global Future: A Time to Act," -- political statements of intent on the part of groups such as the CFR, the Trilateral Commission, Federal Reserve, and the IMF to pursue policies that were to result in the deaths of upwards of 2 billion by 2000. The Global 2000 formula signed by Jimmy Carter and followed by his successors, remains, in fact, the guiding the economic, legislative, and foreign policies of the US. And the goal of Global 2000? Depopulation and enslavement by aristocrats and their self-made one-world government - where they, alone, govern all humanity.
 
N

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
From the NYTimes Economix Article: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/07/the-great-deprivation-2/?hp

"Data on the percentage of individuals living in poverty have not yet been released for 2009. Ms. Sawhill summarizes efforts to project future trends this way: “bad news on poverty, worse to come.” Her projections, developed in conjunction with Emily Monea, suggest that poverty rates for children could reach 25 percent by 2011...."


And a VERY thoughtful article from "Atlantic" magazine called How a New Jobless Era Will Transform America is found here: http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine...ew-jobless-era-will-transform-america/7919/1/

"....But in fact a whole generation of young adults is likely to see its life chances permanently diminished by this recession. Lisa Kahn, an economist at Yale, has studied the impact of recessions on the lifetime earnings of young workers. In one recent study, she followed the career paths of white men who graduated from college between 1979 and 1989. She found that, all else equal, for every one-percentage-point increase in the national unemployment rate, the starting income of new graduates fell by as much as 7 percent; the unluckiest graduates of the decade, who emerged into the teeth of the 1981–82 recession, made roughly 25 percent less in their first year than graduates who stepped into boom times. ..."

And....

"“We haven’t seen anything like this before: a really deep recession combined with a really extended period, maybe as much as eight years, all told, of highly elevated unemployment,” Shierholz told me. “We’re about to see a big national experiment on stress.” "
 
N

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
Uncurled: Yep. And the opinions on that page (6 or so folks discussing it) are so varied depending on where the person is in their life, what their debts are, etc.
 
China Connection

China Connection

TB Fanatic
I laugh my head off when people can only relate to what one gets paid in hand full stop. There are plenty back home in Australia living in cars that are part time teachers for the government. Our workforce is about the leader in a part time work workforce.

There is no way I would swap what I get in China for your average job back in Australia these days.
 
N

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
Census jobs:

"The bulk of hiring that's going to happen for the 2010 census has occurred over the past two months as the Census Bureau geared up for door-to-door operations. In the week ended May 22, there were 549,450 temporary census workers, up from 127,412 at the start of April. By July, the bulk of the door-to-door work will be done, and most of those jobs will have evaporated."

Link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704080104575286533834988718.html
 
W

Windi

Newbie
undead said:
When do the census jobs expire?
Click to expand...

I heard on the radio the other day while they were discussing this data that the Census jobs end in August. So we will have TONS more show up in the Unemployment lines in August/Sept time period.

:shk:Windi
 
undead

undead

Veteran Member
Nuthatch said:
Census jobs:

"The bulk of hiring that's going to happen for the 2010 census has occurred over the past two months as the Census Bureau geared up for door-to-door operations. In the week ended May 22, there were 549,450 temporary census workers, up from 127,412 at the start of April. By July, the bulk of the door-to-door work will be done, and most of those jobs will have evaporated."

Link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704080104575286533834988718.html
Click to expand...



Thanks for the update. Hmmmm, just in time for Fall election season. President Zippy is gonna be sweating August.

:spns:
 
C

Chair Warmer

Membership Revoked
And for our neighbors to the South? (Mexico)
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Unemployment-Rate.aspx?Symbol=MXN

The unemployment rate in Mexico was 5.53 percent in April of 2010. The labour force is defined as the number of people employed plus the number unemployed but seeking work. The nonlabour force includes those who are not looking for work, those who are institutionalised and those serving in the military.

This page includes: Mexico Unemployment Rate chart, historical data and news.

Mexico
Interest Rate 4.50%
Growth Rate -0.35%
Inflation Rate 4.27%
Jobless Rate 5.53%
Current Account 1
Exchange Rate 12.9561


:mad: I want our jobs back!
Mrs. Chair Warmer
 
N

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
Congress Responds to Deficit Concerns: http://www.buffalonews.com/2010/06/06/1073168/1.html

Excerpt:

"Meanwhile, other once-routine items — extended unemployment benefits, a "doc fix" that aims to prevent a 21 percent cut in Medicare fees paid to doctors and $1 billion for summer youth jobs — passed the House but now face an uncertain outlook in the Senate.

"Everything has gotten to be more and more of a struggle" because of growing concern about the deficit, said Rep. Louise M. Slaughter, D-Fairport."
 
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N

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
From "On the Hill" Blog: http://onthehillblog.blogspot.com/2010/06/senate-to-take-up-unemployment-on.html

......“We have to pass an emergency extension of unemployment benefits and other matters related to job creation that help out-of-work Americans make ends meet. These benefits have now expired –- and so has our patience for excuses,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says in a floor speech Monday. “Many who oppose this extension gave tax breaks to rich CEOs who shipped American jobs overseas. Now their constituents are looking for a lifeline in a job market Republicans helped sink. I hope both sides can come together to give them the help both they and our economy need.”.......
 
N

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
bernanke says unemployment unlikely to fall quickly....

Excerpt:

June 8 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. recovery probably won’t quickly bring down the unemployment rate, which is likely to stay “high for a while.”

Given the depth of the recession, the recovery is “moderate paced,” Bernanke said last night in a question-and- answer session with Sam Donaldson, the ABC News journalist, in Washington. In Europe, policy makers “are committed to avoiding default in Greece” and elsewhere, he said.......

Link: http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...oyment-unlikely-to-fall-quickly-update2-.html
 
N

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
Bloomberg article..

Excerpt:

"The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended or emergency benefits under federal programs.

Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments increased by about 69,000 to 5.39 million in the week ended May 22.

The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the jobless rate, fell to 3.5 percent in the week ended May 29 from 3.7 percent. "

Link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aExjbLqPhA0M
 
N

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
From the latest Economix Blog of the NYT:

"It was unlikely, as some analysts speculated, that those claimants had found jobs. The combined number of people on extended and emergency benefits — 5.39 million in the week ended May 22 — was actually higher than the 5.32 million a week earlier.

“Increasingly, those who are unemployed have been unemployed for six months or more,” said Andrew Stettner, deputy director of the National Employment Law Project. “If you’re out for more than six months, you’re not on regular benefits. Long-term unemployment is now the norm.”

Link: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/10/making-sense-of-the-jobless-claims-numbers/?src=busln
 
N

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
From "Workers Left Behind":

"A more worrying possibility is structural unemployment: the idea that many of the people displaced by the Great Recession have skills that no longer match the jobs available. After all, downturns can give employers an excuse to trim less productive workers whom they would have let go eventually — but when the economy picks up again, employers don’t hire those workers back.

There is no easy solution to the problem of structural unemployment, as demand for new skills typically changes much faster than workers — especially older and less mobile workers — can retrain."

Link: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/04/workers-left-behind/
 
U

UncurledA

Inactive
Nuthatch said:
From "Workers Left Behind":

"A more worrying possibility is structural unemployment: the idea that many of the people displaced by the Great Recession have skills that no longer match the jobs available. After all, downturns can give employers an excuse to trim less productive workers whom they would have let go eventually — but when the economy picks up again, employers don’t hire those workers back.

There is no easy solution to the problem of structural unemployment, as demand for new skills typically changes much faster than workers — especially older and less mobile workers — can retrain."

Link: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/04/workers-left-behind/
Click to expand...

Combine the concept of structural unemployment ( i.e., the old jobs aren't coming back ) with the reality there is no "Next Big Thing" to train hordes of new workers for, and you have formed the next rungs on the downward spiral we are trapped in. ( BTW, "green jobs" is NEVER going to be that next big thing - they require constant cash infusions, even the most promising companies, and it isn't just to get started, either )

Then combine THAT with the BP oil disaster that looks to be worsening all the time, and which is eating untold amounts of government deficit dollars, and will probably quickly bankrupt BP as well. That is going to severely dampen the ability to provide a social safety net certain workers have come to expect, and cause governments all over the U.S. to have to eventually let large numbers of employees go.

I can make a very solid case that the spiral was started by monetary foolishness via the deep Fed policies. It is easy to show that because of this there is no remedy to the unemployment spiral at this time, as the problem is a capital destruction effect that is by nature one that is pushed into the future, and then there is no way to go into the past and undo it. But really, nobody except a few want to contemplate the future that determines, so why waste the bits doing it ? For the few that do, you already know it, so just get ready to, as LoupGarou says, "go grey" in your own best way.
 
R

Richard

TB Fanatic
all of this due to a shortage of money? economic cycles due to abundance of money then shortage for the past 300 years
 
N

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
John Linder: Unemployment Is Too Much of an Allure

Huffington Post: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/10/john-linder-unemployment_n_607589.html

"Georgia Republican Rep. John Linder suggested Thursday that extended unemployment benefits keep people from looking for work.

After complaining that the Democrats' stimulus bill has failed to keep unemployment from hitting double digits, Linder said, "And even when businesses are willing to hire, nearly two years of unemployment benefits are too much of an allure for some," said Linder. "The evidence is mounting that so-called stimulus policies rammed through Congress are doing more harm than good."

Linder cited a May 10 Detroit News story about landscaping businesses complaining that potential employees rejected job offers in favor of collecting unemployment benefits. The stimulus and several subsequent bills have given laid-off workers up to 99 weeks of unemployment benefits in some states, including Michigan. The average weekly benefit is $320. ...."
 
annieosage

annieosage

Inactive
Nuthatch said:
John Linder: Unemployment Is Too Much of an Allure

Huffington Post: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/10/john-linder-unemployment_n_607589.html

"Georgia Republican Rep. John Linder suggested Thursday that extended unemployment benefits keep people from looking for work.

After complaining that the Democrats' stimulus bill has failed to keep unemployment from hitting double digits, Linder said, "And even when businesses are willing to hire, nearly two years of unemployment benefits are too much of an allure for some," said Linder. "The evidence is mounting that so-called stimulus policies rammed through Congress are doing more harm than good."

Linder cited a May 10 Detroit News story about landscaping businesses complaining that potential employees rejected job offers in favor of collecting unemployment benefits. The stimulus and several subsequent bills have given laid-off workers up to 99 weeks of unemployment benefits in some states, including Michigan. The average weekly benefit is $320. ...."
Click to expand...

But they have to want to hire YOU

Oh yeah the "allure" of that check each week sure does keep me from looking - NOT :shk: We are sinking quicker than quicksand and without that check we'd already be drowned. But I don't like living this way. I want to work. I want more than this. I'm not saying there aren't people out there who feel that way about unemployment but in reality I think most folks are just so down and depressed they've given up.
 
N

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
Annie--I hear you. I posted this for info only--not that I necessarily agree with it!

I am really monitoring this topic as you can see.
 
I

inynmn

Inactive
Originally Posted by Nuthatch
John Linder: Unemployment Is Too Much of an Allure

Huffington Post: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/0..._n_607589.html

"Georgia Republican Rep. John Linder suggested Thursday that extended unemployment benefits keep people from looking for work.

After complaining that the Democrats' stimulus bill has failed to keep unemployment from hitting double digits, Linder said, "And even when businesses are willing to hire, nearly two years of unemployment benefits are too much of an allure for some," said Linder. "The evidence is mounting that so-called stimulus policies rammed through Congress are doing more harm than good."

Linder cited a May 10 Detroit News story about landscaping businesses complaining that potential employees rejected job offers in favor of collecting unemployment benefits. The stimulus and several subsequent bills have given laid-off workers up to 99 weeks of unemployment benefits in some states, including Michigan. The average weekly benefit is $320. ...."

What a terrible thing for a US government official to say.

Why can't they be honest ?

This is all about a demographic time bomb, not just in the US - worldwide.

The "graying of 1st world civilization - due to government policy.

I'm actually not against all of the "family policy" - I see the logic - but it is not applied with parity, IMO.

There is not enough monies in the Universe to fulfill all of the obligations and expectations of billions of humans (1st world, especially) - hence, the "great equalization".
 
N

Nuthatch

Membership Revoked
I understand you. I think anyone who WANTS to be a politician is suspect. It's to the point that even if I wanted to run for local office, I would suspect my own reasons. There are no more citizen-politicians. I think you should be allowed to serve no more than 6 years at any level (city, county, state, district, federal, etc.). Would that end the idiocy?

Meanwhile, it is Harry Reid, with his own issues, who wants to extend benefits.

Danged if you do or if you don't.

I think this will be the defining issue of this generation aged 20-45 yo. It will determine birthrate, home ownership, extended family relationships, debt load, and more.
 
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