It's going into the gulf...somewhere.
WEATHER Tropical weather
- Thread starter Millwright
- Start date
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
Not looking good for dissipation in near term
..
..
Yeah
It's got a 40% chance of doing something...somewhere..in the next 7 days.
I be watching this one,
When their prognostications are this ambiguous, it could surprise everybody.
It's got a 40% chance of doing something...somewhere..in the next 7 days.
I be watching this one,
When their prognostications are this ambiguous, it could surprise everybody.
Lorraine in GA
Senior Member
Yeah, I read somewhere today that Florida could possibly get up to 30 inches of rain with this system. Talk about adding insult to injury.
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
"Tune in Tomorrow. Same Bat time, same Y'all channel!"
That escalated suddenly.
Lorraine in GA
Senior Member
5 Day precip.
Firebird
Has No Life - Lives on TB
We just don't need any more
1. Gulf of Mexico (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually
becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected,
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or
on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move
faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf
of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida
Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could
occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over
much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are gradually
becoming better organized. Development of this system is expected,
and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form later today or
on Sunday while it moves slowly eastward over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. By early next week, the system is forecast to move
faster eastward or northeastward across the central and eastern Gulf
of Mexico where additional strengthening is likely. Interests on
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida
Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains could
occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over
much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
10:00 advisory will be designating it as TD-14.
I'ma thinking it will spin up fast and hard.
It's not gonna be a long track, not good. If it builds to a major storm, there won't be time for it to dissipate any.
Will start a breakout thread when they name it as a TS....probably won't be long.
I'ma thinking it will spin up fast and hard.
It's not gonna be a long track, not good. If it builds to a major storm, there won't be time for it to dissipate any.
Will start a breakout thread when they name it as a TS....probably won't be long.
Firebird
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Invest 92L
A significant portion of the Intensity Models are in the Cat-3 range with some at Cat-4.
IMO, this is going to be a bad one.
A significant portion of the Intensity Models are in the Cat-3 range with some at Cat-4.
IMO, this is going to be a bad one.
raven
TB Fanatic
Yesterday there was a high pressure front that was blocking northward movement and directing the storm to Florida.
Today, the high pressure front has been moved north.
Do you see the dotted line that points to Houston and continues up through Mississippi?
Looks like an open door - i would keep and eye on it - it is still early.
Today, the high pressure front has been moved north.
Do you see the dotted line that points to Houston and continues up through Mississippi?
Looks like an open door - i would keep and eye on it - it is still early.
Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
Early morning one-minute GOES-East satellite imagery shows that the
circulation associated with the area of low pressure over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better defined. Deep
convection has been persistent over the northwestern portion of the
circulation with some increase in banding also noted. Based on the
recent increase in organization, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression Fourteen. The initial intensity is set at 30
kt which is supported by overnight ASCAT data. Another ASCAT pass
is expected over the system later this morning.
The depression is moving north-northeastward or 025/3 kt. The
system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward
during the next day or so. After that time, a trough moving
southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause
the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a
slightly faster forward speed. By Tuesday the cyclone is expected
to move northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed and
this track will bring the system across the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula by midweek. The track guidance is in good
agreement on this overall scenario, but there are differences in
the forward speed. The NHC track lies near the various consensus
aids, but it slightly faster since the typically reliable GFS and
ECMWF global models are on the faster side of the guidance. Users
are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at
the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150
miles.
The depression is within a favorable environment of low vertical
wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions are
expected to allow for steady to rapid strengthening over the next
few days. The intensification is likely to be slower during the
next 12 to 24 hours until an inner core can become established, but
after that time a faster rate of strengthening is anticipated. The
global models predicted significant deepening when the system moves
across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the regional
hurricane models show the potential for rapid strengthening during
that time. The NHC forecast follows suit and calls for a period of
rapid intensification after 36 h. The official forecast shows
the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico. This forecast is near the intensity
consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies
a little below the regional hurricane models. Regardless of the
exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with
multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula next week.
Key Messages:
1. The depression is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week.
2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.
3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall
more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday
through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban,
and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river
flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024
Early morning one-minute GOES-East satellite imagery shows that the
circulation associated with the area of low pressure over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better defined. Deep
convection has been persistent over the northwestern portion of the
circulation with some increase in banding also noted. Based on the
recent increase in organization, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression Fourteen. The initial intensity is set at 30
kt which is supported by overnight ASCAT data. Another ASCAT pass
is expected over the system later this morning.
The depression is moving north-northeastward or 025/3 kt. The
system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward
during the next day or so. After that time, a trough moving
southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause
the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a
slightly faster forward speed. By Tuesday the cyclone is expected
to move northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed and
this track will bring the system across the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula by midweek. The track guidance is in good
agreement on this overall scenario, but there are differences in
the forward speed. The NHC track lies near the various consensus
aids, but it slightly faster since the typically reliable GFS and
ECMWF global models are on the faster side of the guidance. Users
are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at
the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150
miles.
The depression is within a favorable environment of low vertical
wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions are
expected to allow for steady to rapid strengthening over the next
few days. The intensification is likely to be slower during the
next 12 to 24 hours until an inner core can become established, but
after that time a faster rate of strengthening is anticipated. The
global models predicted significant deepening when the system moves
across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the regional
hurricane models show the potential for rapid strengthening during
that time. The NHC forecast follows suit and calls for a period of
rapid intensification after 36 h. The official forecast shows
the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico. This forecast is near the intensity
consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies
a little below the regional hurricane models. Regardless of the
exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with
multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula next week.
Key Messages:
1. The depression is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves
eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or
near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula mid week.
2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and
wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow
any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to
the forecast.
3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday
and Monday well ahead of the tropical system, with heavy rainfall
more directly related to the system expected by later Tuesday
through Wednesday. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban,
and areal flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river
flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Brown
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
I'd likely stick this one in a different window and keep an eye on it.
The forecast track cone and the wind slug do NOT match the winds shown in post #420. They are way too south of the path of the winds showing in #420.
We watched Helene turn North just before she landed.
THIS one may be as much of a bitch as Helene.
EVEN if she IS "Just" a Cat 3.
Rags, are you and yours safe even if she DOES decide to pick up a case of "Hava-Tampa Ceegars"??
The forecast track cone and the wind slug do NOT match the winds shown in post #420. They are way too south of the path of the winds showing in #420.
We watched Helene turn North just before she landed.
THIS one may be as much of a bitch as Helene.
EVEN if she IS "Just" a Cat 3.
Rags, are you and yours safe even if she DOES decide to pick up a case of "Hava-Tampa Ceegars"??
WOWWWWWWW!
Already up to TS....Milton.
Already up to TS....Milton.
They just keep coming.
pauldingbabe
The Great Cat
Invest 92L
A significant portion of the Intensity Models are in the Cat-3 range with some at Cat-4.
IMO, this is going to be a bad one.
Seems like the whole gulf is one big hurricane...looks like the entire damn all of it is rotating.
I don't recall seeing a hurricane come off from the west like that. Not saying it doesn't happen though.
Wow, just WOW
Ragnarok
On and On, South of Heaven
My car broke down. Clutch went out and isn't scheduled to get fixed until next Saturday.
I rented a UHaul today. Pick it up Monday. It's a confirmed reservation so hopefully they don't rent it out to anyone else. Will watch the track/intensification until Tuesday afternoon and then decide whether to hit the road or hopefully it will change course or die down. ( *Disclaimer: All time estimates are subject to change )
I don't know, though. Things are just kind of falling into place. Car broke down forcing me to take vacation all through next week. Then I was broke ( The UHaul rental for an estimated 4 days is not cheap ) which made me get a bank loan to repair the clutch as payday isn't until the 15th. The funds were not supposed to be in my account before next Friday but I checked and they were already in my account, which allowed me to pay for the UHaul and I'll just replace the funds on payday.
When chaos just seems to solve itself, it makes me very uneasy as, in my experience, it happens for a reason. I like to think that it is because my Mom is always praying for me. Which makes me worry about when she is no longer here.
A little thing over the Bahamas in the 7-day.
It's headed out into the Atlantic, but....dayum.
It's headed out into the Atlantic, but....dayum.
night driver
ESFP adrift in INTJ sea
THursday at noon-ish:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located off the east coast of central Florida.
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave that has now emerged off of the west coast of Africa
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginal for limited development of
this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic and the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. By
Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable,
and further development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of
development, localized areas of heavy rain are possible across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands late Thursday through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Hagen
Quick Links and Additional Resources
Tro
| Central Pacific | Eastern Pacific | Atlantic |
Tropical Weather Outlook Text | EspañolTropical Weather Discussion |
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located off the east coast of central Florida.
1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave that has now emerged off of the west coast of Africa
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginal for limited development of
this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic and the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. By
Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable,
and further development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of
development, localized areas of heavy rain are possible across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands late Thursday through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Hagen
Quick Links and Additional Resources
Tro
It will spin to the north.
MARTHANOIR might should watch it
MARTHANOIR might should watch it
That new system coming from affica may track west, instead of hooking north like the last few in that area.
The extreme WAG models are hinting at such.
The extreme WAG models are hinting at such.
Nothing good EVER comes from Africa.
This is a 5 day WAG on possible storm formation.
The main takeaway is how the guesses have it going west.
I guess the steering winds are changing over the atlantic.
The main takeaway is how the guesses have it going west.
I guess the steering winds are changing over the atlantic.
They see it heading towards the gulf?
joy
joy