EBOLA This time it's different: prepping for a soon certainty vs prepping fora later possibility

Border Collie

Inactive
Has anyone noticed a change in the board, or in themselves, concerning this Ebola issue?

For me, I've always been at least somewhat concerned about being prepared for familiar possibilities: house fire, car accident, tornado, ice storm, power outages, unemployment - dangers/risks to my family that most everyone is familiar with. (West coast swap /tornados/earthquakes/, South and east Coast swap /tornados/hurricanes/ )

Then, decades ago, I learned of other, non-zero, risks such as terrorist attacks, nuclear war (limited or not), the collapse of the dollar, bank holiday and financial crisis, biological attack, Y2K - dangers not many people were cognizant of, much less preparing for. Heck, most people (known from scientific studies) don't prepare for their meals 3 days hence.

One common factor to all of these, except the collapse of the dollar, is that all of these risks are *possibilities*, not certainties. That takes a considerable edge off the mental state when considering and trying to be prepared for them.

The collapse of the dollar (still speaking from my perspective) is a certainty. But the time is nebulous. In 1990 or so I came to the point in my adult studies to realize that like all fiat currencies before, without exception, the dollar would collapse. At that time, I figured it'd be within my life time or the lifetime of my children. Twenty years later, in 2010, as federal debt seriously entered the part of the hockey stick curve of compounded interest that goes from (apparent) linear to exponential growth, it was a little unsettling to conclude that the collapse was certainly in my lifetime and likely within a few years (4 years later, and still counting). So, the dollar collapse, while certain, is an unknown time in the future. So is my death, and I live with that fine. I have made peace with the Creator on His terms and have the assurance from the Holy Spirit that I am saved, have life insurance to take care of those I'm responsible for, so I'm prepped for that other certainty without a time, death.

But this Ebola outbreak, it's different for me, and maybe for some of you. Maybe I'm mistaken about this; I admit I'd *like* to be mistaken in my conclusion that this outbreak, this epidemic is a certainty, with a near/soon timeframe. My conclusion is that any vaccination will take too long to mass produce (the only vaccination I've heard of is expected to have 1 million doses by the end of 2015, and like the annual flu vaccination, they're not entirely sure they'll have made it to address the right strain, or a strain close enough to be effective. This virus can mutate, and as of a week or two ago at least one scientist/researcher expressed his belief that it had mutated to "burn hotter."

Without rehashing so much scientific knowledge shared on this board in it's forums, it seems to me a certainty that this will continue to spread in the USA, and kill many people.

There are many questions that I can't answer - will there be martial law, how will vital infrastructure continue to work with unwilling or dead employees that at some point the knowledge of the business goes away, will there be conscription, on and on and on. I don't think much at all about that, because I do not think I, nor anyone else, could know how it'll play out.

But the danger seems certain to affect my life, it's not just a possibility like so many dangers. And it seems to be near, months away from many people dying near me, and perhaps weeks away from a public panic. I don't know when, but this disaster isn't going to be put off by some Quantitative Easing program of the politicians.

I think the certainty and the nearness are what sets this risk apart from all others I've tried to address in my preparedness lifestyle (homesteading lifestyle, to be more accurate).

Is this issue/risk substantially different from all others for you? If so, how?
How are you addressing this any differently than other risks?

I've not lost a second of sleep over it. I do expect family members and people close to me to die. Next year. Maybe me. I've done what I can, and I'm actually trusting in God to handle all that remains. I've purposefully memorized and intensely studied scripture over the course of my adult life and passages come to mind as readily, more readily really, as childhood memories. Although deeply disillusioned with the Church and Christians, and wrongly angry with God from time to time, and "rusty" in my spiritual walk, my hope is solely in God, the Creator. He allows evil (the source of my wholly wrongful anger), and although I *feel* angry about that at times, I *know* that God is good. Whatever He does, by definition of who God is and what good is, is good. Whatever evil God allows to happen, is a good thing. God, allowing horrific deaths of little children in Africa from this disease, and soon here, is still and always good. Allowing His only begotten Son to be tortured cruelly and killed was a good thing. None understood it then, as I do not understand God allowing evil to often be unchallenged today. And this Ebola evil has all evidence of being unchallengeable for a few years, after tens of millions have died, or more.

This Ebola is different that way, to me. A certainty, rather than a possibility.


Border Collie
 

Leigh19717

Senior Member
very well said. I agree totally. I see all these people mocking the fear out there in people and that we will never see it. I wonder what they will think when their daughter/son lies in a bed dying of it. Just because we have modern medicine here, does not mean we can keep up with a large outbreak.
 

Genevieve

working on it
I was ready for the "usual" events and I was thinking more of a flu pandemic so I was and am ready SIP but I think theres a better than average chance of surviving the flu than ebola so I can only do my best to stay away from others and keep others away from here.
I did up the amount of gloves and masks ( I know they don't help, but with the acknowledgement of the cdc of sneezes carrying the virus ( and the subsequent removal of that statement) and who confirming that, I'm thinking the n95's might just help some).

I've also been adding more food and drinks for the SIP and more supplies for other things around here.

Its all you can do really. Do your best and get right with the Lord ( which you should be anyways but whatever lol) and take one day at a time and one situation at a time and deal with it.
 
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Border Collie

Inactive
Of course, I could be wrong, this might not be a certainty.

Can anyone make a substantiated case that an epidemic of Ebola in the US is just a possibility, and not certain?

Because from the science and the credible and authoritative posters here, it does seem certain to occur.
It'd wonderful if there were some significant, credible chance that it won't.

Border Collie
 

Mr. Inspector

Contributing Member
My old preps were for war, nuclear winter/war. Some personal meds,but nothing for a pandemic. My preps were for a three month stretch, not a full-blown pandemic. Looks like the age old stuff needs to be replaced and new stuff bought and extended to 6 months . The dog has a 6 month supply of dog food and shampoo and his own water filter. Oh well, rice and beans first.
 

4RIVERS

Veteran Member
I think we could prevent a widespread Ebola outbreak if we had a different leader. Someone to take it as seriously as they should. Regrettably, we don't have that type leadership. I think it's just a matter of time before the exponential growth in West Africa causes more and more outbreaks in the U.S. Once we have several going at the same time, it will start to snowball and overwhelm the healthcare system. It'll be all downhill from there...
 

Hansa44

Justine Case
Of course, I could be wrong, this might not be a certainty.

Can anyone make a substantiated case that an epidemic of Ebola in the US is just a possibility, and not certain?

Because from the science and the credible and authoritative posters here, it does seem certain to occur.
It'd wonderful if there were some significant, credible chance that it won't.

Border Collie


Yes! Look at our past in the last 15 years on TB (and beyond of course).

Every world ending thing that has come into our view, we knew with certainty this was definitely the end this time. We prepared for it in all manner of ways.

And, it didn't happen! Not because it wasn't suppose to happen, but because a Power much greater than the antics of the dark forces (tptb) would put a sudden halt to it.

I am NOT saying a world ending adventure won't happen eventually, but that's the Lord's decision and NOT the dark forces decision.
 

summerthyme

Administrator
_______________
Of course, I could be wrong, this might not be a certainty.

Can anyone make a substantiated case that an epidemic of Ebola in the US is just a possibility, and not certain?

Because from the science and the credible and authoritative posters here, it does seem certain to occur.
It'd wonderful if there were some significant, credible chance that it won't.

Border Collie

Consciously, I'm still thinking that MAYBE it won't be that bad here. But apparently, my subconscious is saying something completely different- I finished a prep run today that filled the last of my "SHTF shopping list"- a list that's been on my computer desk top without EVER being filled for over 12 years! Clearly, "something" is telling me that this time is indeed different.

If I thought we could believe TPTB who are telling us "nope, no Ebola here!", it would seem obvious that we CAN control it in this country. Instead, I'm thinking "never believe anything until it has been officially denied"... and looking around, realizing that every SANE country in the world has placed severe restrictions on travel from the affected countries (Canada is the latest: just banned issuing any visas to anyone from the countries which are currently having active Ebola)- and then realizing that OUR morons are EXPEDITING visas as their response, I don't really see a snowballs chance in hell of it NOT getting here.

And once here, given the special snowflakes response (and apparently now getting a judge to agree with her that it's just NOT FAIR, since she's "not showing any symptoms" for put any restrictions on her at all), there isn't any possible way we can stop it with quarantine, etc.

I'm just praying I can get the grown kids to the farm in time.. and that one of them doesn't bring it in with them. Thinking along the lines of having the ones with a decent camper bringing it along and using it for a quarantine station. The problem being, of course, that they all have good jobs and responsibilities and they aren't going to want to dump all that for a "maybe"... and once it's no longer a "maybe", it may well be too late.

God help us all!

Summerthyme
 

Squib

Veteran Member
Well THIS time the crap IS hitting the fan for certain - it's not a sudden bomb blast, or bank holiday, but like a slow moving lava flow.

The dollar is dying, job's market stinks, production is largely gone, common morality seems vacant in many community leaders such as politicians, religious leaders, teachers, parents, cops, etc. Housing is in the toilet, food prices and quality are terrible, oppressive laws have all but taken our liberty away. Common sense is very uncommon, people seem less intelligent, feral minorities have vast influence and seem to be driving the culture into the abyss, and we have the worst president in our history running things into the ground...

So the crap IS hitting the fan as we speak - darkness IS descending on this country and judgment is as well. That's why many of us here are on edge.
 

Junkyard Dog

Indefinitely Suspended
Well THIS time the crap IS hitting the fan for certain - it's not a sudden bomb blast, or bank holiday, but like a slow moving lava flow.

The dollar is dying, job's market stinks, production is largely gone, common morality seems vacant in many community leaders such as politicians, religious leaders, teachers, parents, cops, etc. Housing is in the toilet, food prices and quality are terrible, oppressive laws have all but taken our liberty away. Common sense is very uncommon, people seem less intelligent, feral minorities have vast influence and seem to be driving the culture into the abyss, and we have the worst president in our history running things into the ground...

So the crap IS hitting the fan as we speak - darkness IS descending on this country and judgment is as well. That's why many of us here are on edge.

This is how I see things also....
 

China Connection

TB Fanatic
Well I have never heard of hospitals here in Australia preparing for a virus before like this one. The same goes for the U.S.

There must be quite a lot we are not being told to cause the concern that this is going to spread and be of major concern.

Food can and does disappear quickly in real emergencies no matter where a problem may be. It also goes up in price a lot is such shortages.

The thing to do is to get whatever you are going to get stored and then start eating your way through it and replacing it weekly, what you have eaten. This way you will not have waste.

Remember water can be turned off or become dangerous out of the tap. Council staff can get sick like everyone else. If too many get sick at once then goodby water supplies. When and if water does get turned off stop bathing and other uses of water straight away. Only used your stored water with food.
 

TerryK

TB Fanatic
As long as we get Ebola cases in onesies and twosies, AND consisting of either health care workers or people who manage to get here from West Africa we will probably be okay.
The danger signal is when you see 20 or 30 cases at once, OR someone who is just a regular American Joe, and not a health care worker involved in Ebola care, comes down with it.
At that point we will all have a serious problem. Anyway, that's my red line. That's the point where I feel it will become more of a certainty than just another possibility. Until then, I'll just watch and observe.


The one unknown, is just how stupid the Obama Administration and CDC will get in allowing infected people into the country or not enforcing quarantine procedures. Just when you think that no one could possibly be more stupid, the government comes along to prove you wrong.
 

Sammy55

Veteran Member
Well THIS time the crap IS hitting the fan for certain - it's not a sudden bomb blast, or bank holiday, but like a slow moving lava flow.

The dollar is dying, job's market stinks, production is largely gone, common morality seems vacant in many community leaders such as politicians, religious leaders, teachers, parents, cops, etc. Housing is in the toilet, food prices and quality are terrible, oppressive laws have all but taken our liberty away. Common sense is very uncommon, people seem less intelligent, feral minorities have vast influence and seem to be driving the culture into the abyss, and we have the worst president in our history running things into the ground...

So the crap IS hitting the fan as we speak - darkness IS descending on this country and judgment is as well. That's why many of us here are on edge.

Yes, yes, yes and AMEN!!

Well put, Squib!
 

Faroe

Un-spun
Of course, I could be wrong, this might not be a certainty.

Can anyone make a substantiated case that an epidemic of Ebola in the US is just a possibility, and not certain?

Because from the science and the credible and authoritative posters here, it does seem certain to occur.
It'd wonderful if there were some significant, credible chance that it won't.

Border Collie

We don't know a lot about this virus. For what ever reason, it may not really "take" here. I won't consider it a certainty until it actually IS out of control. I expect (w/o a whole lot of hard data) that we may find ourselves living with this virus for years to come. If it is mutating as fast as some scientists claim, the more sucessful strains may make the symptoms milder, and the epidemic might become more of a chronic problem then a one-time crisis. Just speculation here.

I am not trying to downplay the threat at all; but I don't consider an out of control epidemic in the US to be a certainty at this time.
OTOH, at this time, I don't see anything likely to stop it either.
 

WestGardener

Senior Member
I think we could prevent a widespread Ebola outbreak if we had a different leader. Someone to take it as seriously as they should. Regrettably, we don't have that type leadership. I think it's just a matter of time before the exponential growth in West Africa causes more and more outbreaks in the U.S. Once we have several going at the same time, it will start to snowball and overwhelm the healthcare system. It'll be all downhill from there...

Correct, if only we had leadership we could have confidence in.
 

Border Collie

Inactive
.... I think it's just a matter of time before the exponential growth in West Africa causes more and more outbreaks in the U.S. Once we have several going at the same time, it will start to snowball and overwhelm the healthcare system. It'll be all downhill from there...

I agree. I do not KNOW, but I most strongly suspect that there ARE several outbreaks going on right now, and they are being concealed for as long as possible.
We do KNOW that there have been a minimum of 4 people traveling here with it (Dr and nurse in Aug, both recovered, Duncan who died, and the NY Doc who's suffering it now).

We do KNOW that in Duncan's case two nurses have tested positive after exposure (officially, unofficially maybe the conspiracy-leaning people are correct and they were set up to produce carefully controlled panic, and then are seen recovering nicely, to set up a further delay in the near future when the public becomes aware of more secondary infections).

We do know that by all scientific knowledge of Ebola researchers and ministering Docs and nurses that 90% of Duncan's 4 family members should have become infected, and while there have been official reports of no infections in them, we've yet to see any of them.

In the coming 2 weeks we can expect to see secondary infections from the NY doctor, and I'd lay scarce money down that those two nurses from Dallas will be trotted out to dampen public fears or panic in NYC. We'll see.

But to your point, I agree that once we get several domestically infected cases we will be locked into an unstoppable epidemic.

Further, once the public gets a clue of this state, and just one of the governments (CDC, Whitehouse) lies, panic ensues shortly after.


As long as we get Ebola cases in onesies and twosies, AND consisting of either health care workers or people who manage to get here from West Africa we will probably be okay.
The danger signal is when you see 20 or 30 cases at once, OR someone who is just a regular American Joe, and not a health care worker involved in Ebola care, comes down with it.
At that point we will all have a serious problem. Anyway, that's my red line. .......

Given the past behavior of this virus, and the actions and policies of the federal govt, we'll have those 20-30 domestic cases by Christmas or January. I think.


We don't know a lot about this virus. For what ever reason, it may not really "take" here. .......

I disagree with this statement - we know quite a bit about this strain of the virus. The only aspect in question that may differentiate it from previous outbreaks of this strain is the observation by a renown scientist that this virus may have mutated and is infecting faster:

Now U.S. scientist Peter Jahrling of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease believes the current Ebola outbreak may be caused by an infection that spreads more easily than it did before.

Dr Jahrling explained that his team, who are working in the epicentre of the crisis in the Liberian capital of Monrovia, are seeing that the viral loads in Ebola patients are much higher than they are used to seeing.

He told Vox.com: 'We are using tests now that weren't using in the past, but there seems to be a belief that the virus load is higher in these patients [today] than what we have seen before. If true, that's a very different bug.
'I have a field team in Monrovia. They are running [tests]. They are telling me that viral loads are coming up very quickly and really high, higher than they are used to seeing.

'It may be that the virus burns hotter and quicker.'
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...t-warns-deadly-virus-changing-contagious.html

The fact that so much *is* known, and that our government has been routinely violating and compelling all agencies and states to violate the most basic *established* practices to contain this virus, leads to my unwanted certainty of an epidemic.

That's why I posted. This is new for me, a first. I've worked on very large software projects, and the UNIX kernel, and had plenty of experience with all sorts of bugs in software. While Y2K was a credible risk, and there were some publishized Y2K fixes that screwed up big time beforehand, I still had no idea how much would go wrong when the millennium ended. I was prepared for a possibility, just as I am for tornadoes, muggings, vehicle breakdowns, and the rest of the possibilities.

I'm comfortable with risks that are possibilities. But with all I've learned since March on this, from research papers, news stories before August, and from some credible, authoritative posters here, and a little common sense, I see an epidemic as a certainty. Theorectically, sure, this could be stopped now at great cost (financial cost would be the least of the costs). But the little bit of common sense that is not going to happen.

This is disturbing.

I appreciate all of your responses, I really do. I'm fishing for either confirmations, based on established facts, or better yet refutations shared with facts. Point me to some authoritative research report on how fragile Ebola is, or the weak infectiousness of it. It's got to be good, though, because there are 38 years of research by many, many established professionals in the field and in the lab that consistently prove this is a virulent, and highly communicable, virus.

The practices, policies, and pronouncement of the most authoritative institutions in this country, the CDC and the whitehouse on behalf of the federal government, have been encouraging the introduction and further spread of this virus.

It could only be more certain if they sprayed the virus laden blood in grocery stores and in subway trains, I guess.

In early August I saw this as yet another possibility. Since late August I've been searching in my studies for a best case scenario to hope for, even as the federal govt has done exactly the opposite of what it should have done, at each and every step along the past 2 months.

Summerthyme, you know I have a lot of respect for you, and I thank you for sharing also. Lately I've been wondering if I was the only one, if there was something very wrong with my critical thinking abilities.

Border Collie, not looking forward to 2015 very much
 

Raggedyman

Res ipsa loquitur
very well said. I agree totally. I see all these people mocking the fear out there in people and that we will never see it. I wonder what they will think when their daughter/son lies in a bed dying of it. Just because we have modern medicine here, does not mean we can keep up with a large outbreak.

Leigh
I've wondered the same thing - also wonder if all those we told to buy 2 cans of beans instead of 1 will remember it when the grocery shelves are empty . . . sadly they will most likely STILL not get it continuing to think it will all be fine in a few days
 

rmomaha

The Wise Man Prepares
Well THIS time the crap IS hitting the fan for certain - it's not a sudden bomb blast, or bank holiday, but like a slow moving lava flow.

The dollar is dying, job's market stinks, production is largely gone, common morality seems vacant in many community leaders such as politicians, religious leaders, teachers, parents, cops, etc. Housing is in the toilet, food prices and quality are terrible, oppressive laws have all but taken our liberty away. Common sense is very uncommon, people seem less intelligent, feral minorities have vast influence and seem to be driving the culture into the abyss, and we have the worst president in our history running things into the ground...

So the crap IS hitting the fan as we speak - darkness IS descending on this country and judgment is as well. That's why many of us here are on edge.

Well said. Its why I am sitting here at 12:30 in the morning wide eyed. We know its in the works and we are about to descend into terror. War, pandemic, collapse. In spades.
 

4RIVERS

Veteran Member
We don't know a lot about this virus. For what ever reason, it may not really "take" here. I won't consider it a certainty until it actually IS out of control. I expect (w/o a whole lot of hard data) that we may find ourselves living with this virus for years to come. If it is mutating as fast as some scientists claim, the more sucessful strains may make the symptoms milder, and the epidemic might become more of a chronic problem then a one-time crisis. Just speculation here.

We do know quite a bit about the Ebola virus and in ways we know nothing. My concern is some of what we know about it has never happened outside of a lab setting and I'd rather not be the guinea pig in the experiment.

Some studies I've seen show it living and lasting longer in the colder climates. What does that mean for the US with winter approaching. Could we have virus particles lasting longer on doorknobs, shopping cart handles, city bus seats, handrails, or any number of things people are exposed to daily. How about the trash can lid you have to push open to throw away your coffee cup?? Way to many unknowns out there right now.

Another concern of mine is the information from Dr. Peter Jahrling about the mutation rate of Ebola. In past outbreaks, there were generally less than 400 cases before it was brought under control. This time there are over 10,000 cases acknowledged by health authorities, with rumors of the true rate being 2-4 times that. Obviously, the more cases you have of Ebola the greater the chance of a mutation occurring. Every time it replicates it could undergo a mutation which could cause it to become more lethal. On the other hand, it could also replicate and become less viral. We don't which way it will go, but we do know viruses are very bad about mutating and it's a coin toss as how it will affect the victims. You could be right. It could become milder. I think we all would hope for that.

Though I am hopeful that, " it may not really "take" here", I don't think we should wait until it is a certainty to find out. The best way of preventing an outbreak here is to not allow it into the US in the first place, but with this Administration that's unlikely.
 
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