ALERT The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Just came across this illustration regarding North Korean missile tests last July and thought it might be of interest......

Analysis, Nuclear Weapons

The Transfer of a Russian ICBM to North Korea?​

August 17, 2023, by Theodore Postol

image-4.png

 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
60 Minutes
@60Minutes
3h

If China were to take the Sierra Madre, a grounded Philippine WWII battleship and outpost, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro says he would expect U.S. intervention.
View: https://twitter.com/60Minutes/status/1835470888394702890

Just for correction, the Philippine vessel Sierra Madre is the former USN LST-542-class tank landing ship, not a battleship, USS LST-821, USS Harnett County.
 

jward

passin' thru
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
·
2h
North Korea has launched a possible Ballistic Missile in the direction of the Sea of Japan.
 

jward

passin' thru
China-Philippines retreat, for now, from Sabina Shoal row
Richard Javad Heydarian



MANILA – The Philippines and China have effectively ended a recent standoff over the Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea, marking at least a temporary de-escalation in maritime tensions many fear could tilt toward armed conflict.

The National Maritime Council, the newly established interagency task force overseeing the Philippines’ South China Sea policy, announced on September 15 that the Philippine Coast Guard flagship BRP Teresa Magbanua was leaving the shoal area after a grueling five-month-long mission.

Shortly after, China reportedly also withdrew its armada of coast guard and militia forces from the contested land feature’s area in the Spratly group of islands.

According to Philippine officials, China had parked more than 200 vessels – a combined force composed of Chinese Coast Guard (CCC) and Chinese maritime militia (CMM) – in the Spratlys, with as many as 71 deployed close to the Sabina Shoal.

Critics of the Philippine government were quick to characterize the vessel’s withdrawal as a de facto “surrender” while opining how China had supposedly “outsmarted” the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. administration through its pressure tactics.

The Philippine government has insisted that the move was not part of any deal with China, even as it took place shortly after the latest Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM) meeting between top Philippine and Chinese diplomats in Beijing.

Top Philippine officials have underscored their commitment to a continued and expanded presence in the Sabina Shoal area, including through the regular deployment of naval assets and patrol warships.

NMC chairperson Lucas Bersamin said the BRP Teresa Magbanua completed its mission “against overwhelming odds” faced with “an encirclement of China’s larger flotilla of intruders.” He said the ship would resume its mission as “defenders of our sovereignty” in the area after being resupplied, repaired and its crew recharged.

The Sabina Shoal (“Escoda” to Filipinos and “Xianbin Jiao” to Chinese) is situated just 75 nautical miles (140 kilometers) from Philippine shores, well its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) extending from the island of Palawan.

While the Philippines claims the low-tide elevation as part of its continental shelf, China views the contested feature as part of its wide-reaching of nearly the entire South China Sea and its features as defined in its nine-dash line map.

A Manila-initiated arbitral case in 2016, heard at The Hague under the aegis of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), dismissed China’s expansive claims as inconsistent with international law. Beijing boycotted the arbitration proceedings and ignored the final ruling, which lacked an enforcement mechanism.

The latest round of tensions was caused by both sides fearing the worst about each other’s intentions. For Manila, it urgently deployed its most precious coast guard vessel to Sabina Shoal amid fears that China may have been quietly engaging in island-building activities in the contested area.

The Philippines was earlier up in arms when reports emerged of China’s potential reclamation of another low-tide elevation, known as Sandy Cay, situated in the vicinity of the Philippine-occupied Thitu Island in the Spratlys. The Philippine Navy deployed a warship to the area to warn China against any drastic moves.

For its part, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) recently conducted exercises near the Sabina Shoal. The PCG’s deployment of its flagship vessel seemingly spooked Beijing, which feared that the Philippines was about to replicate its success in fortifying the contested Second Thomas Shoal.

Since the late 1990s, the Philippines has maintained a de facto military base over the strategically located feature (also claimed by China) by grounding the BRP Sierra Madre warship there.

Despite constant harassment by Chinese forces, including multiple collisions and even injuries inflicted on Philippine troops, the Southeast Asian nation managed to successfully fortify the dilapidated base through successive transfers of construction materials.

To prevent a similar scenario in Sabina Shoal, China stepped up its presence and intimidation tactics in the area, even as the Philippines has repeatedly denied it plans to establish a “forward base” there.

Beijing remains unconvinced and quickly reminded its Southeast Asian rival of its preponderance of force after deploying CCG 5901, the world’s largest coast guard ship known as “The Monster,” to shadow and intimidate the BRP Teresa Magbanua.

Last month, Chinese vessels blocked Philippine resupply missions, thus forcing the latter to airdrop basic needs for its troops in the area via helicopter.

Tensions peaked when Chinese vessels engaged in dangerous maneuvers against two PCG Multi-Role Response Vessels (MRRVs) – BRP Cape Engaño and BRP Bagacay – during a routine resupply mission to nearby islands in the Spratlys.

The collisions damaged the PCG vessels but the CCG maintained that it was rightfully responding to provocation by Filipino counterparts who “illegally entered” the area without permission and “deliberately” collided with its ships.

Soon after, Chinese forces went so far as reportedly ramming into the BRPTeresa Magbanua,raising fears of a direct armed confrontation.

Recognizing the gravity of the situation, the US offered direct assistance to their Filipino mutual defense treaty allies, including potential joint patrols and resupply missions in the disputed areas.

But top Filipino officials have indicated that they would rather rely on their own resources, although some have openly called for a multilateral anti-China alliance as well as a revamp of the Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty to lower the threshold for American military intervention.

“We did not withdraw and this was not the agreement during the last BCM. People might think we gave in, but in fact, we didn’t,” Admiral Alexander Lopez, the chief spokesman of the Marcos administration on the South China Sea, said during a recent press conference.

“We stood our ground during the meeting in Beijing and our Department of Foreign Affairs stated that our presence will be maintained at the shoal, so it’s not a withdrawal,” he added.

“The president’s directive is to maintain our presence in Escoda Shoal,” he added during the recent press conference at the Malacañang Palace. “When we say presence, strategic presence, not just physical presence… I just want to make clear that our presence is not limited to sending a single ship,” the admiral added.

“Even if Teresa Magbanua left, it did not diminish our presence in the area because we have other ways to monitor,” the Philippine admiral insisted, citing the Philippines’ deployment of patrol aircraft and surveillance capabilities to monitor developments in the contested area.

He also clarified that the PCG has already deployed a new vessel to replace the returning flagship in order to assert a Philippine strategic presence in the area. “As far as the Philippine Coast Guard is concerned, we have not lost anything,” commodore Jay Tarriela of the PCG said in his own press conference this week.

“[Sabina] Shoal, no matter how many instances we intend to go there, we will be able to patrol and deploy our vessel,” he added.

Top Philippine officials’ vehement denials followed accusations by domestic critics and hardliners, who have seized on the incident to accuse the Marcos Jr administration of caving into China.

But for top Filipino strategists such as former Vice Admiral Rommel June Ong, the Philippines has yet to exhaust its full range of capabilities.

“We talk as if we have exhausted all elements in our tool kit,” he told the author recently, emphasizing that the Philippines has the option to deploy naval vessels and larger resupply ships, conduct joint patrols with allies, and, if push comes to shove, even seek direct American assistance if the situation reaches a dangerous level.

“The Sabina Shoal standoff is not an isolated challenge. We are confronting [a more comprehensive] direct challenge across the whole South China Sea… [but] we [also] have a full range of options to respond,” he added, likening the sea showdown with China as more marathon than sprint.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian
 

jward

passin' thru
:hmm:
Lucas Tomlinson
@LucasFoxNews
29m

Jake Sullivan this morning: “China is not the focus of the Quad.”

Joe Biden this afternoon on a hot-mic while meeting Quad leaders (Australia, India, and Japan): “China continues to behave aggressively, testing us all across the region.”
 

jward

passin' thru
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
MORE CHINESE MIGRANTS HEAD TO THE U.S

Panama’s President, José Raúl Mulino, announced that authorities had detected an increase in U.S-bound Chinese migrants crossing the Darién Gap.

The Darién Gap is a 30-mile-wide, 100-mile-long jungle trail that Panama shares with neighboring Colombia and is the only land bridge between South and Central America.

Panamanian authorities documented 520,085 migrants who crossed the Darién Gap in 2023 — a record-breaking number that was more than double the 248,284 logged in 2022.

Source: Breitbart
View: https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1837526360127856656
 

jward

passin' thru
Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal

BIDEN LOSES HIS COOL AT QUAD PRESS CONFERENCE

He snapped at staffers after an awkward gaffe during a final meeting with world leaders from Australia, India, and Japan at his home in Wilmington, Delaware.

Ending his introductory speech about the Quad's efforts to beat cancer, Biden said: "So I want to thank you all for being here. And now, who am I introducing next?"

After an awkward moment of silence, Biden snapped, "Who's next?"

Source: Daily Mail
View: https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1837754402087510219
 

jward

passin' thru
Russia’s airspace ‘violation’ sparks ‘serious protests’ by Japan


Japan lodged a “very serious protest” with Moscow after a Russian patrol plane entered its airspace three times, the defence minister said Monday, calling it the first confirmed incursion since 2019.

The military responded by scrambling fighter jets and issuing radio and flare warnings, Minoru Kihara told reporters.

“We confirmed today that a Russian Il-38 patrol aircraft has violated our airspace over our territorial waters north of Rebun Island, Hokkaido, on three occasions,” he said.

“The airspace violation is extremely regrettable, and today we lodged a very serious protest with the Russian government via diplomatic channels and strongly urged them to prevent a recurrence.”

Japan has supported the Western position on Ukraine, providing Kyiv with financial and material support and sanctioning Russian individuals and organisations after Moscow’s invasion of its neighbour.
 

jward

passin' thru
China test-fires an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean


Updated 9:44 AM CDT, September 25, 2024

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — China test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday, stirring security concerns in the region already tense over Beijing’s territorial claims and rivalry with the U.S.

The ICBM carried a dummy warhead and fell into a designated area of the sea, the Defense Ministry said in a statement posted to social media.

The launch by the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force was part of routine annual training, complied with international law and was not directed against any country or target, according to the statement.

It is unclear how often China conducts tests over such a distance. In 1980, China launched an ICBM into the South Pacific.

A map published in Chinese newspapers at the time showed the target area as roughly a circle in the center of a ring formed by the Solomon Islands, Nauru, the Gilbert Islands, Tuvalu, western Samoa, Fiji and the New Hebrides.

The U.S. and non-governmental organizations have said China has been building up its missile silos, but it’s unclear how many missiles and nuclear warheads it has added to its arsenal.

The People’s Liberation Army, which functions as the ruling Communist Party’s military wing, runs China’s space program, which has established an orbital station and has ambitions to set up a Moon base and land a spacecraft on Mars.

Rocketry has long been part of China’s development into a major global power, spurring nationalism and growth that has made China the world’s second-largest economy.

The U.S. remains China’s main global rival, although Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and others have territorial disputes with Beijing that occasionally threaten to develop into military clashes.

China maintains a “no first use” of nuclear weapons policy, even as its desire for regional predominance grows.

Tests of China’s intercontinental ballistic missiles into international waters are rare. Experts and a historical survey of China’s program by the Washington-based Nuclear Threat Initiative suggest the last occurred in May 1980. That test saw China launch its DF-5 missile into the South Pacific.

China typically launches missiles toward its western deserts from its east coast, said James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The fact that China launched a test that splashed down in international waters was unusual, but mirrors testing that the United States does for its own ballistic missile fleet.

“When they haven’t done something for 44 years and then they do it, that’s significant,” Acton told The Associated Press. “It’s China’s way of telling us, ‘Like you, we’re not ashamed we have nuclear weapons and we’re going to behave like a great nuclear power.’”

The launch came amid the ongoing United Nations General Assembly in New York. China is one of five veto-holding permanent members of the U.N.'s Security Council and has sought to gain influence over its key departments involving human rights and that align with its authoritarian system.

A series of corruption arrests this year ensnared several leading officers in the Rocket Force, alongside the detentions of two previous defense ministers amid allegations of misconduct.

A test launch now could both provide assurances to China’s population amid an economic downtown and a signal to the world that the party remains firmly in control and is determined to rise to global prominence.

“We’re entering a new age. We’re entering an age where the U.S. and China are engulfed in what feels like an arms race,” said Jeffrey Lewis, a missile expert at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in the U.S.

“The Chinese government always prioritized diplomatic issues over operational readiness. It’s just a different China. It’s a China that does not feel constrained,” he said.

“There’s a renewed emphasis on assuring themselves these systems work and demonstrating to others they work,” Lewis added.

Meanwhile, tensions remain high over Taiwan, and with the Philippines, where the U.S. Army has deployed its new mid-range missile system, known as Typhon, to Northern Luzon. On Wednesday, two Filipino officials said the U.S. and the Philippines have agreed to keep the system there indefinitely to deter China.

“I don’t know what’s the plan, but if I were to be followed, if I were given the choice, I would like to have the Typhon here in the Philippines forever because we need it for our defense,” said Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr., the head of the Philippines’ military.

Defense officials in Japan and Taiwan declined to comment directly on the Chinese announcement. Both, along with South Korea, maintain robust defenses against Chinese moves, including early warning systems and air raid shelters.
___

Associated Press writers Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Jim Gomez in Manila, Philippines and Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo contributed to this report.
 

jward

passin' thru
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3
·
23h
Update: White House: Biden has directed the withdrawal of up to $567 million in defense aid and services to support Taiwan.
 

jward

passin' thru
Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense
@IndoPac_Info
Chinese warship shoots laser at Philippine BFAR aircraft

A Chinese Navy missile boat used a “high intensity” laser three times against a Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) aircraft conducting a maritime surveillance over the West Philippine Sea, putting the Filipino crew in danger.

The incident took place midday Friday while a BFAR Cessna patrol aircraft spotted a Chinese coast guard vessel with bow No. 21555 and two navy Type 22 Houbei-class missile boats chasing two BFAR vessels (BRP Taradipit and BRP Romapenet) near Hasa-Hasa (Half Moon) Shoal, a feature located just about 111 kilometers (60 nautical miles) off Palawan, according to a brief summary report by BFAR shared with the Inquirer.

Moments later, one of the two Chinese Navy missile boats shone a laser against the BFAR aircraft.

Its pilots issued a radio challenge to the Chinese vessel to stop the laser pointing but got no response. One of the Chinese missile boats instead fired laser two more times at about five minutes apart.

The laser illuminated a “high intensity white light,” causing discomfort to the pilots’ eyes, the report read.

The latest confrontation occurred a day after the Philippine Navy completed a resupply mission to Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal with “no threat” from Chinese vessels operating nearby. Manila and Beijing struck a temporary deal in July to ease tensions there following a series of Chinese harassment against Philippine vessels in the past months.

On Saturday afternoon, a Chinese helicopter also chased and flew close to BFAR’s BRP Datu Romapenet during its resupply mission near Bombay Shoal close to Palawan’s mainland, according to a report by ABS-CBN News.

About an hour after the incident, it reappeared and flew as close as 20 meters from the BFAR ship.

Saturday’s encounter coincided with the Philippines’ biggest “multilateral maritime cooperative activity” yet with allied countries including United States, Australia, Japan and New Zealand near Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal.

Not the first time

The Type 22 140-foot missile boats of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy are equipped with missile launchers and capable of top speeds of 38 knots (about 70 km per hour) and are considered to be the Chinese Navy’s new generation stealth missile fast attack craft.

These vessels have been previously monitored operating from Panganiban (Mischief) Reef, a feature within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) that Beijing seized in 1995.

Last year, the Philippine Coast Guard accused a Chinese coast guard ship of pointing a “military-grade” laser at one of its vessels while supporting a resupply mission in Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal.

Over the course of Friday’s patrol, the BFAR aircraft spotted a Chinese coast guard vessel and two navy ships 74 km (40 nautical miles) west of Palawan.

While at Rozul (Iroquois) Reef, there were 24 stationary Chinese maritime militia vessels and a PLA warship with bow No. 576 at the southern portion of the reef.

Increasing aggression

Two BFAR vessels (Datu Pagbuaya and Datu Bangkao) were also observed providing aid to Filipino fishermen in the area despite being outnumbered by Chinese vessels nearby.

At Panganiban Reef, which is now a massive Chinese military base, there were more than 200 Chinese vessels spotted.

 

jward

passin' thru
Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense
@IndoPac_Info
'Alarming and unexpected': Chinese missile ship chases civilian vessel in West PH Sea

A Chinese missile vessel chased a Philippine vessel near the First Thomas Shoal or Bulig Shoal in the West Philippine Sea last week, which is considered the first time that such a ship chased a civilian vessel during its maritime patrols.

‘forever’BRP Datu Romapenet – a civilian vessel under the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) – was on the way to the Hasa-Hasa Shoal (Half Moon Shoal) Friday, September 27 to provide aid and other food supplies to fishermen in the area.

ABS-CBN News was aboard BRP Datu Romapenet when China’s Type 22 missile boat shadowed the Philippine vessel. A China Coast Guard ship was also nearby during the incident.

Dr. Chester Cabalza, director and founder of International Development and Security Cooperation, described the latest Chinese maritime aggression as alarming and unexpected.

“Nakakabahala itong insidente na ito lalong-lalo na missile ship ang nag-shadow sa ating BFAR ship. Hindi ito expected na nangyayari dahil alam natin na kapag grey ship, tulad ng missile ship na nakita natin, nagpapakita ng ngipin at lakas ang China,” said Cabalza in an interview.

(This is alarming because it was a missile ship that shadowed our civilian vessel. We all know that if a grey ship was used, it was meant to intimidate us.)

“First time tayong makakita, itong Houbei missile ship na ito. Hindi natin ito nakikita pangkaraniwan sa West Philippine Sea dahil ang madalas nilang pinapadala ay ang mga Coast Guard ship… Ibang klase ito dahil missile ship,” the security analyst said.

(It was the first time that we spotted such ship in the West Philippine Sea.)

According to non-profit military association US Naval Institute, the Houbei-class guided-missile craft from the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is noticeable by its blue camouflage paint scheme.

The US Naval Institute added that it could carry up to 12 crew members and 8 anti-ship cruise missiles.

Aside from shadowing the Philippines vessel, the missile ship pointed lasers at a BFAR plane three times when it was conducting maritime patrols alongside the civilian ship.

Cabalza said China wanted to “build some fear” and intimidate Philippine ships in the West Philippine Sea.

“Isang provocation ito at ang pagle-laser nila sa eroplano natin, hindi lang nila ginagawa sa atin ito, kundi ginagawa rin ito sa malalaking bansa tulad ng Australia, US, at nakita natin na ganitong greyzone tactics nila ginagawa pa rin nila sa atin. Hindi bago ito na ginagawa,” he said.

“We are not tolerating this kind of action coming from China… Kailangan ipaliwanag sa atin unang-una bakit nagpadala sila ng missile ship sa ating maritime features in the West Philippine Sea,” the security analyst added.

National Maritime Council spokesperson Undersecretary Alexander Lopez said the presence of China’s missile ship in the area was “illegal.”

Lopez clarified that while this was the first time that it chased the country’s civilian vessel, it had been previously spotted in the West Philippine Sea.

“Wala silang karapatang maghabol, wala silang karapatan na i-intimidate yung mga civilian vessel. Ang mga ginagawa nila doon ay ilegal, aside doon sa kanilang physical presence… Masasabi kong first time na naghabol… pero matagal nang nagpapakita,” the retired vice admiral said.

“I doubt naman na gagamitin nila sa civilian vessel (yung missile). Pananakot lang yan, intimidation,” he added.

The official said they would wait for official reports on the matter as they come in and forward these to the foreign affairs department.

CHASED BY CHINESE CHOPPER

In a separate incident, a Chinese helicopter chased and flew close to BRP Datu Romapenet during its resupply mission near the Palawan mainland on Saturday afternoon.

Datu Romapenet was distributing aid and food supplies to fishermen in the area when the Chinese chopper flew nearby the ship around 2 p.m. The incident happened 11 nautical miles southwest of Bombay Shoal, which was also near Sabina Shoal.

An hour later., the Chinese chopper reappeared and flew as close as 20 meters from the civilian ship. This happened 113 nautical miles southwest of Mischief Reef, also known as Panganiban Reef and 55 nautical miles from mainland Palawan.

Lopez said this was an “illegal” act by China.

“Yung mga ganoon, I just hope the reports will be coming soon,” said Lopez.

“We will consolidate these reports and we will bring these up to the Department of Foreign Affairs and the department will come up with an appropriate measure,” he added.

FISHERMEN FRET

At Hasa-Hasa Shoal, around 100 fishermen received food packs, water, fuel, and medicine from the Philippine vessel.

Among the beneficiaries was Benjamin Mijares, who said he recently experienced Chinese aggression. Mijares, 53, sailed for 4 days from Batangas just to get the aid.

“Binabantayan kami na hindi kami makapasok banda sa Escoda… Minsan nagsa-siren sila, nagwa-wang wang,” he said.

“Napakalaking alwan kasi kampante kami may kakampi tayo. Mula nung isang araw laging may nakaikot dito na Chinese navy. Sa gabi, nakikita din namin sila. Hindi kami natutulog, nagmamasid baka kung ano ang gawin,” he said.

Mijares said he was afraid of Chinese vessels’ threats against Filipino fishermen.

“Baka mangyari na mag-iba ang takbo ng isip nila, banggain kami o i-water cannon. Wala kaming kasiguraduhan sa aming pamamalakaya sa dagat, kaya tulad nitong pagsu-survey ng BFAR, nagpapasalamat kami, parang kami ay may kakampi.”

China recently reiterated its "demand" to withdrawal the US missile system installed in the Philippines, saying it undermines the peace and stability in the region.

But the Philippine military said it wanted the United States’ Typhon midrange capability missile in the Philippines permanently as part of the country’s defense.

Image
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use......

N. Korea will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons if attacked, says Kim Jong-Un​

North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, ramped up the provocative rhetoric that has increasingly soured relations between South Korea, promising it would use "all the offensive forces it has possessed, including nuclear weapons." South Korea responded that its US-backed response would be "overwhelming," and result in the "end of the North Korean regime."

Issued on: 04/10/2024 - 02:43Modified: 04/10/2024 - 02:44
2 min

By:NEWS WIRES

Kim Jong Un said his forces would use nuclear weapons "without hesitation" if Pyongyang's territory was attacked by the South and its ally the United States, state media reported on Friday.

"If' the enemy... attempt to use armed forces encroaching upon the sovereignty of the DPRK... the DPRK would use without hesitation all the offensive forces it has possessed, including nuclear weapons," the KCNA news agency quoted him as saying, using the acronym for the North's official name.

Kim was speaking on Wednesday while inspecting a special forces military training base in the west of Pyongyang, KCNA reported.

The remarks came after South Korea staged a military parade earlier this week, with its President Yoon Suk Yeol threatening "the end of the North Korean regime" if Pyongyang used nuclear weapons.

"If North Korea attempts to use nuclear weapons, it will face the resolute and overwhelming response of our military and the US and Republic of Korea alliance," Yoon said.

"That day will be the end of the North Korean regime," he added, addressing thousands of service members gathered at Seoul Air Base for the event.

In response to those remarks, Kim branded the South Korean leader a "puppet" and "an abnormal man", KCNA reported.
Kim's statements also referenced the South's alliance with the United States, which is its principal military partner.

Tens of thousands of US troops are stationed in South Korea.

The South has no nukes of its own and is covered by the US nuclear umbrella.

The latest spat comes weeks after the North disclosed images of a uranium enrichment facility for the first time, showing leader Kim touring the site as he called for more centrifuges to boost the country's nuclear arsenal.

The country, which conducted its first nuclear test in 2006 and is under rafts of UN sanctions for its banned weapons programmes, had never publicly disclosed details of its uranium enrichment facility before.

Relations between North and South Korea are at one of their lowest points in years, with the North recently announcing the deployment of 250 ballistic missile launchers to its southern border.

Pyongyang has designated the South its "principal enemy" and declared itself to be an "irreversible" nuclear weapons power.

North Korea has long flouted UN sanctions thanks in part to support from allies Russia and China.

(AFP)
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.......

The Good, The Bad And The Ugly Of Yoon’s Korean Unification Vision – Analysis​

October 5, 2024 0 Comments
By East Asia Forum

By Abhishek Sharma

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol unveiled a new unification vision during the country’s 79th Liberation Day anniversary on 15 August 2024, updating former president Kim Young-sam’s 1994 policy. His unification vision generated significant debate among scholars, receiving both praise and criticism.

Yoon’s vision could not have come at a more strategic moment, as South Korea has the opportunity to show leadership, filling the unification void that followed Kim Jong-un’s two-state announcement. But the moment turned out to be a mixed bag, a collection of good, bad and ugly displays of Yoon’s leadership and foreign policy acumen.

The good part is that Yoon’s unification vision highlighted the importance of freedom and prosperity, envisioning a ‘country full of happiness where people’s freedom and safety are guaranteed’ and ‘a country that contributes to global peace and prosperity while spearheading international harmony and development’. This was a powerful message to send across the 38th parallel, especially after Kim Jong-un’s anti-reunification stance.

Yoon’s proposal to establish an ‘inter-Korean working group’ displayed his commitment to improving inter-Korean ties, encouraging economic cooperation and coordinating disaster and climate change responses. This contrasts with Kim Jong-un, who has systematically dismantled traces of unification by demolishing the arch of unification, closing reunification agencies, banning songs and removing the word reunification from textbooks and public spaces. Yoon’s vision demonstrates his regard for the people of divided Korea despite Kim’s desperate attempt to obliterate any chance of reunification.

Yoon’s unification vision is a fitting strategy to fill the void left after Kim Jong-un renounced reunification — once a core goal of North Korea and a break from his father and grandfather’s dream. This attempt helps Yoon in two ways — allowing him to take control of the unification narrative and keep the hope of reunification for North and South Korean citizens alive.

Yoon now needs to showcase a positive unification vision to the world and emphasise Kim Jong-un’s idiosyncrasies. Amplifying Kim’s pursuit of power would expose his selfishness and highlight that he prioritises his family’s interests over ordinary people’s lives.

The bad part was that Yoon avoided using this critical moment to emphasise and reiterate South Korea’s commitment to a peaceful unification. This reinforces existing doubts in North Korea that the South wants to unify the peninsula by force or through absorption. These doubts fuel the regime change narrative — a key element in propaganda used by Kim Jong-un.

Yoon also said South Korea would improve North Korean citizens’ ‘right to access information’ via different mediums. This attempt could either result in increased inter-Korean tensions, as seen during the trash balloon and pamphlet exchanges episode, or further restrictions on North Korean residents, as North Korea strengthens its digital authoritarian practices.

Following his speech, criticism started pouring in on Yoon’s North Korea unification approach, with many interpreting it as support for regime change. The Yoon administration had to clarify that its ‘vision aims to achieve peaceful unification with North Korea in line with the principles of the Constitution, without resorting to military aggression’.

These doubts emerge from the track record of Yoon’s administration, whose recent actions and statements have made Yoon’s commitment to unification seem shallow. Yoon and his cabinet members have made hawkish remarks about Kim Jong-un that have escalated tensions with his northern neighbour. In 2023, Yoon casually called for a ‘pre-emptive strike’ following a missile test by North Korea. South Korean Defence Minister Shin Won-sik also made unwarranted comments supporting a decapitation strike on the North Korean leader during US–South Korea special forces exercises.

The appointment of Kim Yung-ho — known for his advocacy of regime change and as a North Korean hawk who has criticised all unification policies — as Unification Minister in 2023 further highlighted Yoon’s unserious attitude towards the issue. Under Yoon, the responsibility of the Unification Ministry has been reduced to align with the President’s new right agenda, rather than to follow the mandate of the country’s constitution.

The ugly part of Yoon’s approach was his use of Liberation Day to target the opposition rather than trying to forge consensus on unification — a key aspect of Liberation Day’s legacy. He labelled those opposing his unification agenda as ‘pseudo-intellectuals’, ‘anti-unification’ and ‘anti-freedom’ forces, portraying them as North Korean sympathisers.

Such an attitude increases divisions within South Korea, adding to already strained ties with his opposition and playing into Kim Jong-un’s hands. The domestic fragmentation was evident, as the opposition celebrated Liberation Day in a separate ceremony. Yoon’s statement received condemnation from both left leaning and conservative media.

The new unification vision is a welcome and bold initiative, coming at a time when the reunification idea was losing steam. But instead of reinforcing a strong and shared vision, Yoon used this opportunity to target his opponents and conflate his foreign policy with a unification policy. His administration’s hawkish stance and its actions towards North Korea have only cemented negative perceptions of Yoon. Rather than benefiting from his vision, Yoon has deepened domestic division and strengthened Kim Jong-un’s propaganda.

Moving forward, if Yoon’s objective is to keep alive the hope of togetherness and cross-border unity — as seen in the 2024 Olympic selfie — he must recognise that bipartisan support, backed by a well-considered North Korea policy, is critical.

  • About the author: Abhishek Sharma is Research Assistant at the Observer Research Foundation’s Strategic Studies Programme and a PhD Candidate in the Department of East Asian Studies at Delhi University.
  • Source: This article was published by East Asia Forum
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Hummm....This might get serious......

Posted for fair use.......



North Korea says border units on standby to shoot amid drones dispute​

By Reuters
October 13, 2024 8:46 AM PDT Updated 7 hours ago

SEOUL, Oct 13 (Reuters) - North Korea's artillery units near the border with South Korea have been ordered to be ready to fire amid frictions over drones that Pyongyang says are being flown over the frontier, state media cited the government as saying on Sunday.

Some defectors and activists in South Korea fly aid parcels into the North and drop leaflets criticising leader Kim Jong Un.

North Korea has blamed the South Korean military for the practice. It has also been floating balloons with trash into the South in reprisal.

North Korean state news agency KCNA quoted the defence ministry's spokesperson as saying Pyongyang sees a high likelihood of more drones flying over the capital, with its military told to prepare for all scenarios including conflict.

On Friday, North Korea accused South Korea of sending drones into Pyongyang at night this week and last, and said the intrusion demanded retaliatory action.

Kim Yo Jong, powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, warned Seoul on Saturday of a "horrible disaster".

She said the blame lies with the South Korean military if it failed to identify drones sent by a non-governmental organization crossing the border.

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said it could not confirm the North's accusations.

Reporting by Hyunsu Yim; Editing by David Gregorio and Andrew Cawthorne
 

onetimer

Veteran Member
Hummm....This might get serious......

Posted for fair use.......



North Korea says border units on standby to shoot amid drones dispute​

By Reuters
October 13, 2024 8:46 AM PDT Updated 7 hours ago

SEOUL, Oct 13 (Reuters) - North Korea's artillery units near the border with South Korea have been ordered to be ready to fire amid frictions over drones that Pyongyang says are being flown over the frontier, state media cited the government as saying on Sunday.

Some defectors and activists in South Korea fly aid parcels into the North and drop leaflets criticising leader Kim Jong Un.

North Korea has blamed the South Korean military for the practice. It has also been floating balloons with trash into the South in reprisal.

North Korean state news agency KCNA quoted the defence ministry's spokesperson as saying Pyongyang sees a high likelihood of more drones flying over the capital, with its military told to prepare for all scenarios including conflict.

On Friday, North Korea accused South Korea of sending drones into Pyongyang at night this week and last, and said the intrusion demanded retaliatory action.

Kim Yo Jong, powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, warned Seoul on Saturday of a "horrible disaster".

She said the blame lies with the South Korean military if it failed to identify drones sent by a non-governmental organization crossing the border.

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said it could not confirm the North's accusations.

Reporting by Hyunsu Yim; Editing by David Gregorio and Andrew Cawthorne
1000040254.jpg
 

jward

passin' thru
Apex
@Apex_WW
·

North Korea has designated South Korea a "hostile state", Reuters reports. The North's KCNA news agency says road and rail links with South Korea are now completely blocked off after blasting large sections of them on Tuesday.
 

jward

passin' thru
Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
Oct 15

18 North Korean soldiers have fled their positions in the Russian Kursk and Bryansk border regions with Ukraine.

The Russian military is now looking for them.

It’s safe to assume that they are trying to flee to the EU or Ukraine.
 

jward

passin' thru
Ian Ellis
@ianellisjones

The nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that China test-fired in September landed in Kiribati’s EEZ

The rare launch “enabled the Chinese to carry out a test with a full attack profile. In operational terms, this is inevitably an important step... the test represents the operational validation of the entire system.” @nukestrat
View: https://twitter.com/ianellisjones/status/1844552408720080970
 

jward

passin' thru
Ken Moriyasu
@kenmoriyasu
·

This is very interesting.

— INDOPACOM is preparing actionable responses to Chinese aggression that go beyond mere deterrence.

— The goal is victory rather than merely maintaining the status quo.


nationalinterest.org
Beyond Deterrence: U.S. Indo-Pacific Command’s Strategic Shift
by Jeffrey Reeves
8–9 minutes

Under Admiral Samuel Paparo, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) has embraced a command directive to “prevail,” emphasizing greater readiness and the ability to deny and defend against adversarial actions in the Indo-Pacific. Moving beyond integrated deterrence, this framework highlights the need for U.S. forces to be prepared to win any conflict decisively, particularly in the face of growing challenges from China. The “prevail” framework marks a shift in INDOPACOM’s prior strategic and operational direction, signaling a heightened tolerance for risk in the pursuit of regional stability. It also reflects a hardening of the Biden administration’s approach to China and a significant departure from previous INDOPACOM commanders’ projections of U.S. military power.

Conceptually, the “prevail” approach builds on the foundation laid by former Commander Admiral John Aquilino’s “Seize the Initiative” program. Aquilino prioritized proactive deterrence, integrating alliances, and enhancing operational flexibility across multiple domains (air, land, sea, cyber, and space). His approach sought to shape the regional security environment before threats fully materialized, ensuring U.S. forces could stay ahead of adversaries.

INDOPACOM leadership has further developed this approach by prioritizing the enhancement of U.S. joint forces’ lethality, increasing readiness to respond to and win any crisis or conflict, and facilitating interoperability with U.S. allies and partners. The “prevail” focus ensures that the United States and its allies are not just positioned to deter aggression but are prepared to respond decisively to any regional threat. To this end, Paparo and INDOPACOM leadership have urged regional states to choose between supplication or military preparedness—“arming to the teeth” being the recommended path.

This approach is particularly focused on the prospect of conflict with China, a state Paparo has described as “revanchist, revisionist, and expansionist.” Accordingly, INDOPACOM is preparing actionable responses to Chinese aggression that go beyond mere deterrence. INDOPACOM leadership has challenged the widely held belief that the U.S. would struggle in a limited regional conflict with China, particularly in the Taiwan Strait, expressing confidence that the United States and its allies would ultimately prevail. The emphasis on military superiority, operational resilience, and coordination with allies reflects a commitment to achieving victory rather than merely maintaining the status quo.

Notably, the “prevail” concept is a natural evolution of U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific, particularly regarding China. Over the past few years, the Biden administration has demonstrated a greater willingness to risk conflict with China over issues ranging from technology and trade to maritime activities, as well as its support for Russia and its posture toward Taiwan. As Combatant Commander, Paparo’s approach aligns with and reinforces the Biden administration’s Asian strategy while shaping U.S. military policy in the Indo-Pacific.

Four months into Paparo’s tenure, INDOPACOM leadership has used this framework to redefine U.S. engagement with its allies and push back against Chinese activities in East and Southeast Asia. In July 2024, INDOPACOM supported the expansion of the U.S.-Japan alliance by agreeing to establish a joint forces headquarters in Japan. When operational, the new headquarters, commanded by a three-star officer but directly overseen by the INDOPACOM Commander, will collaborate with Japan’s self-defense force to strengthen security cooperation, enhance command integration, and facilitate greater interoperability in joint operations.

The reconstitution of U.S. Forces Japan into a joint headquarters will bolster U.S.-Japan military capabilities, particularly in response to increased Chinese incursions into Japan’s territorial waters and airspace. INDOPACOM leadership has committed to Japan’s defense, making it clear that should deterrence fail, U.S.-Japan joint forces will respond decisively to Chinese aggression.

INDOPACOM’s “prevail” model was also visible during Paparo’s recent trip to the Philippines, where he reaffirmed the combatant command’s role as a security partner. His pledge to strengthen interoperability with the Philippine Armed Forces and his suggestion that U.S. ships could escort Philippine vessels in the South China Sea underscores INDOPACOM leadership’s willingness to use U.S. military power to shape regional security dynamics, even at the risk of direct conflict with China. This is an offensive posture aimed at asserting dominance, not merely deterring aggression.

INDOPACOM leadership has also hinted at what a “prevail” approach to Taiwan could look like, describing a scenario in which thousands of unmanned vessels, submarines, and aircraft would be deployed to turn the Taiwan Strait into a “hellscape” in the event of a Chinese invasion. This aggressive tactic would counter the U.S.’s “tyranny of distance” by buying time to deploy assets and fight off Chinese forces, even potentially involving strikes on the Chinese mainland.

While the “prevail” approach has injected urgency into U.S. military operations, it has also raised concerns among Asian states. Many Southeast Asian countries do not share INDOPACOM’s willingness to confront China and view Beijing as a stabilizing force in the region. States like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore increasingly perceive the United States, not China, as a destabilizing actor. Additionally, non-English language polling in the region suggests a growing disconnect between how the United States and non-allied Asian states view China and security issues. Even in the Philippines, there is concern that U.S. military support could escalate tensions in the South China Sea.

Uncertainty remains regarding whether U.S. allies will continue to back INDOPACOM’s “prevail” strategy. While Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru supports the U.S.-Japan Status of Forces Agreement, some Cabinet members, like Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and Defense Minister Gen. Nakatani, are more skeptical. In South Korea, opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, a 2027 presidential frontrunner, takes a less hawkish stance on China than President Yoon Suk-yeol. Even within Taiwan’s ruling DPP, concerns have been raised about INDOPACOM’s role in Taiwan under Paparo’s “hellscape” plan.

To address these concerns, INDOPACOM leadership must ensure that the “prevail” directive includes clear crisis avoidance measures and emphasizes negotiation as a primary tool for resolving disputes, even if that benefits China in some cases. Working closely with U.S. embassies on strategic messaging will also be crucial to mitigating apprehensions about American activities in Asia, as will maintaining direction communication channels with the Chinese military. Fortunately, Paparo understands this imperative and has recently held discussions with his counterpart at the People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theater Command.

Admiral Paparo’s “prevail” concept represents a bold evolution in U.S. military operations in the Indo-Pacific. As China continues to assert its influence, the United States must be prepared not only to deter but to win conflicts decisively if necessary. However, for this model to succeed, it must be paired with diplomatic finesse and careful communication with regional partners to ensure that military readiness does not come at the cost of long-term stability.

Jeffrey Reeves is an associate professor at the Naval War College, Naval Postgraduate School, and Senior Washington Fellow at the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy. His views are his own and do not represent official government policy.

Image: FOTOGRIN / Shutterstock.com.

 

jward

passin' thru
Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense
@IndoPac_Info
#China’s coast guard says it “expelled” a #Japanese ship that was in waters around the disputed Senkaku Islands

The uninhabited islands — known as the Diaoyu in China and Senkaku in Japan — are claimed by Beijing but administered by Tokyo and are a frequent hotspot in bilateral tensions.

Liu Dejun, a spokesperson for Beijing’s coast guard, said a Japanese fishing vessel had “illegally entered territorial waters” around the islands from Tuesday to Wednesday.

The coast guard “took necessary control measures in accordance with the law, warned (the ship) and expelled it”, Liu said in an online statement.

“The Diaoyu and affiliated islands are China’s inherent territory, and we urge the Japanese side to immediately stop all illegal activities in these waters,” he said.

“Chinese coast guard ships will continue to carry out maritime rights protection and law enforcement activities… to safeguard national sovereignty, security and maritime rights and interests.”

Japan’s coast guard also said Thursday its patrol ships were monitoring four Chinese coast guard vessels near the islands.

It said that a Japanese fishing boat had been operating around 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) west of the largest landmass in the group as of 9 am (0100 GMT) on Wednesday.

Beijing has said several times this year that it has driven Japanese vessels away from the islands.

But Japanese officials have told AFP that Chinese authorities sometimes announce expulsions when none have occurred.

In recent months, China has pressed its sweeping territorial claims in the East and South China Seas more stridently.

It has notably reignited a years-long dispute with the Philippines over control of contested reefs and shoals in the latter’s waterway.

Beijing on Monday also held military drills around Taiwan, the self-ruled island it claims as part of its territory and has refused to renounce using force to seize one day.

Perennial rivals in East Asia, China and Japan are major trade partners, but their relationship is complicated by Beijing’s regional rise to prominence, Tokyo’s alliances with Western nations and its imperial history.

Japan lodged protests after China tested an intercontinental ballistic missile in the Pacific Ocean last month, and Beijing banned Japanese seafood imports in retaliation for Tokyo’s decision to release treated water from the disabled Fukushima nuclear plant into the ocean.

 
Top