ALERT The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East

jward

passin' thru
Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info
#Philippines builds new coast guard station on island in #SouthChinaSea

The Philippines has built a new coast guard station on the contested island of Thitu in the South China Sea, boosting its ability to monitor movements of Chinese vessels and aircraft in the busy disputed waterway.

As tension mounts over territorial claims in the area, the Philippine coast guard had early this year spotted a Chinese navy ship and dozens of militia vessels around the island, one of nine features Manila occupies in the Spratly archipelago.

Inaugurated on Friday, the new three-storey facility is equipped with state-of-the art technology such as radar, automatic identification, satellite communication, and coastal cameras, the Philippine coast guard said in a statement.

"The behaviour of the Chinese coast guard, People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy and Chinese militias are sometimes unpredictable," Eduardo Ano, the Philippine national security adviser, said during a visit to the island.

"They do not adhere to the international order, to the rule of law," he told reporters on Friday.

"What they're describing as gray-zone tactics ... are pure bullying and it's purely illegal. It's not acceptable in the international order."

The Chinese embassy in Manila did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Manila's outpost of Thitu is its biggest and most strategically important in the South China Sea, largely claimed by Beijing, despite conflicting territorial claims by several regional nations.

Known locally as Pag-asa, Thitu lies about 300 miles (480 km) west of the Philippine province of Palawan. Home to about 200 people, it is used by Manila to maintain its territorial claim.

Besides the Philippines, Brunei, China, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam have competing claims of sovereignty in the South China Sea, a conduit for goods in excess of $3 trillion every year.

Reporting by Karen Lema and Mikhail Flores; Editing by Clarence Fernandez
 

jward

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Global: Military-Info
@Global_Mil_Info

North Korea said that it would consider any interference with its military reconnaissance satellite operations as a declaration of war. If North Korea detects such movements, it will take responsive actions.

A U.S. Space Command spokesman told RFA that the U.S. had capabilities to interrupt North Korean satellite operations.
 

jward

passin' thru
:: must remind santa I need bigger maps, and more pushpins, to keep up with all these interesting developments ::

My apologies, Daniel. Apparently we literally posted at the same time, and I duped you.
 

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Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
Posted for fair use.....

Philippines accuses China of swarming reef in South China Sea​

3rd December 2023, 02:49 PST
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By Vicky WongBBC News
Reuters Dozens of Chinese militia boats in the South China Sea
Reuters
Photo supplied by the Philippine Coast Guard showing Chinese militia boats operating in Whitsun Reef
The Philippines has accused China of "swarming" a reef off its coast after more than 135 military boats were spotted in the South China Sea.

The coast guard said the boats were "dispersed and scattered" in the vicinity of Whitsun Reef, which it says is within its exclusive economic zone.

They said the growing presence of these military boats was "alarming".

The South China Sea is at the centre of a territorial dispute between China, the Philippines and other countries.

Whitsun Reef - which the Philippines calls Julian Felipe Reef - is around 320km (200 miles) west of Palawan Island, more than 1,000km from the nearest major Chinese landmass of Hainan island.

The Philippines' Coast Guard said the number of Chinese maritime militia vessels in the area had increased from the 111 they recorded in November. There has been no response from China.

Friction between the two countries over competing sovereignty claims has increased since Ferdinand Marcos Jr became president last year.

Last week, the Philippines carried out two separate joint air and sea patrols with the US, and with Australia a few days earlier.

An international tribunal invalidated China's claim to 90% of the South China Sea in 2016, but Beijing does not recognise the ruling and has been building islands in the disputed waters in recent years.

The contested waters have also become a naval flashpoint for China-US relations, and in October, US President Joe Biden warned that the US will defend the Philippines in case of any attack.

President Biden's comments were made days after two collisions between Filipino and Chinese vessels in the waters.

Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Brunei also claim parts of the sea.
 

jward

passin' thru
more bout the issue since it's a bear to load up these pieces (c/p) and this adds a few deets. . .

Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info
#Chinese militia ships swarm Julian Felipe Reef in West Philippine Sea

At least 135 Chinese militia ships were seen “swarming” Julian Felipe (Whitsun) Reef in the West Philippine Sea during a patrol by the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) on Saturday.

Separate patrols carried out by the PCG and the Armed Forces of the Philippines in mid-November had observed the “illegal presence” of at least 111 Chinese ships on the reef located 324 kilometers (175 nautical miles) west of Bataraza, Palawan province, well within the country’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

This prompted National Security Adviser Gen. Eduardo Año, who also chairs the National Task Force on the West Philippine Sea (NTF-WPS), to order another maritime patrol in response to the “alarming development,” PCG spokesperson for West Philippine Sea Commodore Jay Tarriela said in a statement.

The PCG’s BRP Sindangan and BRP Cabra challenged the Chinese ships on radio during a patrol on Saturday but they received no response. The ships were “dispersed and scattered” around the reef.

Diplomatic protests

Julian Felipe Reef is considered a low tide elevation within the territorial sea of relevant high tide features in the Kalayaan Island Group, including Chigua Reef, over which the Philippines has sovereignty, Tarriela said.

Chinese militia vessels have been aiding China Coast Guard (CCG) ships in harassing Philippine boats on a resupply mission to Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal.

The Philippines first called attention to the “swarming” on Julian Felipe Reef in 2021. At the time, China said the vessels were only taking shelter due to rough sea conditions.

Several diplomatic protests have since been filed over the presence of Chinese ships in these waters.

Use of water cannon

Early last month, a Chinese vessel again used a water cannon to drive away a Philippine boat on a resupply mission to Philippine troops stationed in Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal.

However, the NTF-WPS said the Chinese Coast Guard’s attempt to change the route of the military-commissioned resupply vessel failed.

“CCG vessel 5203 deployed water cannon against Philippine supply vessel ML Kalayaan in an illegal though unsuccessful attempt to force the latter to alter course,” the NTF-WPS said.

It also said CCG vessels and suspected Chinese maritime militia ships “recklessly harassed, blocked, executed dangerous maneuvers in another attempt to illegally impede or obstruct a routine resupply and rotation mission to BRP Sierra Madre.”

Systematic harassment


Last August, the CCG also used water cannon against PCG vessels escorting boats delivering supplies to BRP Sierra Madre, which was grounded on Ayungin Shoal in 1999 to assert Manila’s claim on the sandbank that is located about 194 km (105 nautical miles) from Palawan.

The CCG had claimed that the Philippine vessels “trespassed” Ayungin Shoal even if the sandbank is well within the Philippines’ EEZ.

The NTF-WPS has frequently condemned China’s “unprovoked acts” and described such behavior as “consistent” and “systematic.”

“The systematic and consistent manner in which the People’s Republic of China carries out these illegal and irresponsible actions puts into question and significant doubt the sincerity of its calls for peaceful dialogue,” the task force said.
 

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Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info

#USNavy Littoral Combat ship USS Gabrielle Giffords conducted a FONOP operation today, Dec 4th near Second Thomas Shoal.

This according to a #PLA Southern Theater Command Spokesperson's statement today accusing the USS Giffords of trespassing into the waters adjacent to China's Nansha Ren'ai Reef (Second Thomas Shoal in the EEZ of the #Philippines )
 

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U.S. to deploy powerful new missile launcher to Indo-Pacific in '24​


Jesse Johnson​


The U.S. military has confirmed that it plans to deploy to the Indo-Pacific next year a new ground-based missile launcher capable of firing weapons with a range of up to 2,500 kilometers.

The U.S. Army Pacific intends to deploy the “Typhon” Strategic Mid-Range Fires (SMRF) system to the region in 2024, spokesman Col. Rob Phillips told The Japan Times on Tuesday, pointing to earlier remarks by Gen. Charles Flynn, the commander of the U.S. Army’s forces in the Pacific.
Flynn told reporters at the Halifax International Security Forum last month that the system, which employs SM-6 missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles and modifies them for ground launch, would be deployed next year. Tomahawks are believed to have a range of between 1,250 km to 2,500 km, while the SM-6 has a maximum range of 240 km.

“I’m not going to say where and when, but I will just say that we will deploy them in the region,” Flynn had said.
The U.S. Army conducted successful tests of the system, which has four trailer-based launchers and other supporting equipment, with the Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles earlier this year. When employing SM-6 missiles, which the U.S. military says are its only real defense against highly maneuverable hypersonic weapons, the system could also be used in a defensive manner.

The system is unlikely to be deployed in Japan, with media reports citing difficulties in securing public understanding — fielding them in the country would effectively make the sites a target of China’s own arsenal — as well as Tokyo’s plans for a so-called counterstrike capability that includes Tomahawks and indigenously built missiles.
A deployment of the weapons to Asia — potentially to the U.S. territory of Guam, home to a sprawling military base — would be the first since the Cold War, and would come as China continues to build up its stockpile of potent missiles capable of striking U.S. military bases in Japan and across the Pacific.

Under the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) between the U.S. and the then-Soviet Union, all land-based missiles, conventional and nuclear, that could travel between 500 km and 5,500 km (310 miles and 3,400 miles) had been banned.
But the U.S. bolted from the INF in 2019, claiming that the Russians had been secretly testing and fielding missiles that violated the pact.

According to the Pentagon’s latest annual report on the Chinese military, Beijing — which was not part of the INF Treaty — is estimated to have 1,500 missiles with a range of 1,000 km to 5,500 km.
Deploying the system to Guam or possibly as part of rotational, shorter-term deployments to or near the United States’ Asian allies, could help bolster deterrence against China as it flexes its military muscle near self-ruled Taiwan and in the disputed South China Sea.

Indeed, an army official involved in the Typhon program, speaking at a think tank event in January last year, noted that the system is capable of firing “many more missiles than a Tomahawk and an SM-6.”
As a result, the then-director of the U.S. Army's Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies office, then-Lt Gen. Neil Thurgood, said the program “will be very much proliferated across our service, probably with our allied and partner nations, because it can shoot so many (types of) weapons.”


U.S. to deploy powerful new missile launcher to Indo-Pacific in '24
 

jward

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:(

Clash Report
@clashreport

An American V-22 Osprey tiltrotor military aircraft crashed into the sea near Kagoshima Prefecture in Japan, with 8 people on board.
TheIntelFrog
@TheIntelFrog
Air Force Special Operations Command has released the following update to the aircraft mishap:

AFSOC Aircraft Mishap Update 9 as of Dec. 6 at 0357 CST

The remaining three Airmen who were located on Dec. 4, 2023, amongst the wreckage from the CV-22 mishap have been recovered by dive teams. Their identities have been determined but are being withheld at this time until next of kin have been notified.

Of the total eight Airmen, the remains of six have now been recovered, with two Airmen still unaccounted for. Combined recovery operations will continue to leverage all available resources to find the remaining Airmen.

The main priority continues to be bringing our Airmen home and providing support to, and the privacy of, those families and loved ones.

Family members, military and government civilians whose lives have been impacted by recent events are encouraged to contact the Emergency Family Assistance Cell at afsoc.efac.org@us.af.mil or 850-884-4494.

Further information will be released as it becomes available. Please direct your questions to our org box: http://afsoc.pa.org@us.af.mil.

7:34 AM · Dec 6, 2023
 

jward

passin' thru
EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3

US National Security Advisor: The United States, South Korea, and Japan will expand defense cooperation among themselves.

US National Security Advisor: Washington, Seoul and Tokyo are working on initiatives to respond to ballistic missiles launched by Pyongyang.
 

jward

passin' thru

Taiwan deepens squeeze on chip tech leakage to China​


Jeff Pao




Taiwan, citing national security reasons, has banned exports to mainland China of know-how and raw materials that can be used to make chips smaller than 14 nanometers.
Advanced chip-making technology is now one of 22 core technologies that Taiwan does not want Beijing to obtain, according to the island’s National Science and Technology Council (NSTC).
The list, which covers the defense, aerospace, agricultural, semiconductor and cybersecurity sectors, took effect immediately after its announcement on Wednesday (December 6).
“If people have the knowhow to make chips below 14nm, they can make many other chips,” Chen Kwo-liang, director general of the NSTC’s Department of Foresight and Innovation Policies said, citing the opinion of an official advisory board formed by industry experts and academics.
Chen said Taiwan, taking cues from other countries, would control the exports of a list of items including chip-making equipment, gas and chemical products used in making chips below 14nm.
In July, Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry imposed export regulations on 23 types of advanced chip-making equipment and raw materials.
“The announcement of a core technologies list is aimed at protecting Taiwanese firms’ commercial secrets. Anyone who steals these technologies or illegally exports them should be punished under the national security law,” Chen said.
Last year, Taiwan passed an amendment to its national security law in which those who steal national core technologies for overseas “hostile forces” will face fixed-term imprisonment of between five to 12 years and fines of between NT$5 million (US$158,973) and NT$100 million.
Taiwan also amended its Cross-Strait Act in 2022 to require its national engineers with core technological skills to apply for permits if they want to work for mainland Chinese firms but have not left their previous positions for three years.

Liang Mong-song’s case​

The NSTC said it spent a year creating the core technologies list and it will unveil another extended list around March or April 2024.
The latest announcement came after Huawei Technologies launched its Mate60 Pro smartphone, which used a 7nm processor made by the Shanghai-based Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), in late August.
Technology experts said SMIC’s chief executive Liang Mong-song and his team could have made a breakthrough in the N+2 technology, which can make high-energy 7nm processors with deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography.
The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s leading chip foundry, achieved the technology seven years earlier. Liang had worked for TSMC from 1992-2009.
TSMC-Taiwan-Chips-Semiconductors.jpg
TSMC is the world’s leading chip producer. Image: Twitter Screengrab / Digitimes

In October 2022, the United States banned American engineers from working for Chinese chip-makers, forcing them to choose between their jobs in China and their US nationality. But that rule did not affect Liang as he is Taiwanese.
Chinese commentators said if Liang is targeted with legal action by Taiwan, he can stay on the mainland for the rest of his life and be a hero in China’s chip sector. However, younger Taiwanese chip engineers may have to rethink their career plans due to the new core technologies list.

“As the US, Japan and South Korea have in recent years strengthened their laws to protect their strategic industries and core technologies, most Taiwanese companies agree that the Taiwanese government should follow suit,” Huang Chun-chien, director of the Mainland China Affairs Division under Taiwan’s Chinese National Federation of Industries, says in an article published by the United Daily News.

“However, some Taiwanese companies are worried that they will face problems when relocating their core technicians to mainland China,” he says.
If Taiwan keeps expanding its core technologies list, fewer and fewer Taiwanese technicians will go to work on the mainland, making it difficult for the island’s companies to operate their businesses there, Huang said.
He adds it will be bad for Taiwan in the long run if fewer Taiwanese technicians can participate in research and development projects in mainland China. Huang’s comments were cited by Cankaoxiaoxi.com, or Reference News, and widely circulated in mainland China on Thursday and Friday.

Wang Jin, an associate professor at China’s Northwest University, says in an article that China should not worry too much about Taiwan’s core technologies list.
China has its own defense, aerospace and semiconductor technologies and does not need to learn from Taiwan, he asserts. More technological blockages will only push China to achieve more breakthroughs, Wang said.
Read: Raimondo calls out Nvidia for China shipments
Follow Jeff Pao on Twitter at @jeffpao3




Taiwan deepens squeeze on chip tech leakage to China
 

jward

passin' thru
Visegrád 24
@visegrad24

BREAKING:

China vessels are using water cannons to attack Philippine state vessels near the Scarborough Shoal which is in the Exclusive Economic Zone of the Philippines.

The Chinese Navy has been trying to assert dominance in the area since 2012
View: https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1733446499722240039?s=20



Frederik Van Lierde
@frederik_vl
Scarborough Shoal, also known as Bajo de Masinloc or Panatag Shoal, is a contested area in the South China Sea.

It is a triangular-shaped chain of reefs and rocks located approximately 198 kilometers west of the Philippine island of Luzon.

The shoal has been a subject of territorial disputes involving China, the Philippines, and Taiwan.

The conflict revolves around competing claims to sovereignty and jurisdiction over Scarborough Shoal.

China asserts historical rights over the area, while the Philippines argues that it falls within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) as defined by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Tensions escalated in 2012 when a standoff between Chinese and Philippine vessels occurred, leading to China's effective control over the shoal.

The Philippines brought the dispute to an international tribunal under UNCLOS, resulting in a favourable ruling for the Philippines in 2016.

The tribunal declared that China's claims based on historical rights had no legal basis and that the Scarborough Shoal was part of the Philippine EEZ.

5:54 AM · Dec 9, 2023
744
Views

Mario Nawfal
@MarioNawfal
BREAKING: CHINA FIRES AT PHILIPPINE BOATS IN SOUTH CHINA SEA
View: https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1733468613430870394?s=20
 

jward

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US, Japan, South Korea step up efforts to counter North Korea cyber-threats​



The three allies have expressed concerns about ‘malicious’ cyber-activities in support of Pyongyang’s banned weapons programmes.
The United States, South Korea and Japan have agreed on new efforts to respond to North Korea’s threats in cyberspace, according to national security advisers from the three countries meeting in Seoul.
The allies “launched new trilateral initiatives to counter the threats posed by the DPRK, from its cybercrime and cryptocurrency money laundering to its reckless space and ballistic missile tests,” White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters on Saturday, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
“This will be a new effort with respect to cryptocurrency and money laundering and how we disrupt North Korea’s capacity to gain revenue from the hacking and stealing of cryptocurrency and then laundering it through exchanges,” he said at a joint news conference with his Asian counterparts.
Sullivan said the meeting followed up on commitments made at a trilateral summit hosted by President Joe Biden in August, where leaders pledged to deepen security and economic cooperation.
At the time, the three countries expressed deep concern over what they described as North Korea’s “malicious” cyber-activities in support of its banned weapons programmes.
Cryptocurrency funds stolen by North Korean hackers have been a key source of funding for the country’s weapons programmes, according to the United Nations, with such theft reaching a record last year. Pyongyang has denied allegations of hacking or other cyberattacks.
Takeo Akiba, Japan’s national security secretariat secretary general, said that North Korea’s “illicit cyber activities” had emerged as the most recent challenges, calling them “a source of funds” for the isolated state’s nuclear missile development.

Russia-North Korea ties​

The meeting in Seoul on Friday and Saturday came as tensions on the Korean peninsula are at their highest in years, with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un accelerating the expansion of his nuclear and missile programme and flaunting an escalatory nuclear doctrine that authorises the preemptive use of nuclear weapons.
The United States and its Asian allies have responded by increasing the visibility of their trilateral partnership in the region and strengthening their combined military exercises, which Kim condemns as invasion rehearsals.
Washington, Seoul and Tokyo have also expressed concerns about a potential arms alignment between North Korea and Russia.

Sign up for Al Jazeera​

Americas Coverage Newsletter​


US politics, Canada’s multiculturalism, South America’s geopolitical rise—we bring you the stories that matter.
They worry Kim is providing badly needed munitions to help Russian President Vladimir Putin wage war in Ukraine in exchange for Russian technology assistance to upgrade his nuclear-armed military – something both Moscow and Pyongyang have denied.
Cho Tae-yong, South Korea’s national security office director, said on Saturday that the three security advisers reaffirmed North Korea’s obligations under multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions that call for its denuclearisation and ban any weapons trade with other countries, and agreed to strengthen coordination to ensure that is implemented.
Akiba said the “unprecedented frequency and patterns” of North Korean ballistic missile launches necessitate a deeper and more effective partnership between Washington, Seoul and Tokyo.



US, Japan, South Korea step up efforts to counter North Korea cyber-threats
 

jward

passin' thru
Global: Military-Info
@Global_Mil_Info

North Korea has increased military activity at the Joint Security Area according to the Swiss and Swedish generals overseeing the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission.
 

jward

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Ian Ellis Profile picture

Ian Ellis

@ianellisjones
3h • 12 tweets • 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter


Wild week in the Indo-Pacific.

10 things you may have missed (from 10 accounts you should follow)
1. Confrontation + Collision

Chinese Coast Guard & Maritime Militia ships "harassed, blocked, & executed dangerous maneuvers" against smaller Philippine ships in the South China Sea.

One Philippine vessel was rammed, & 3 damaged in 2 separate incidents over the weekend.

2. Water Cannon Clash

On Friday, Chinese maritime forces carried out "illegal & aggressive actions," blasting Philippine ships with water cannons at least 8 times.

Long-range acoustic devices were also used, causing severe discomfort & incapacitation to the Filipino crew.

3. Chinese Ships Swarm

The Philippines Coast Guard monitored the "alarming, illegal presence" of more than 135(!) Chinese maritime militia ships massing inside its exclusive economic zone.

The Chinese boats were reportedly "dispersed & scattered" by the PCG.

4. Mysterious Balloon Breach

For the first time, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported tracking a Chinese balloon crossing its side of the median line.

Ostensibly identified as a weather balloon, it "disappeared," heading east toward Taiwan—one hour after it appeared.

5. Flexing Freedom of Navigation

A U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon (anti-submarine warfare) aircraft transited the Taiwan Strait on Wednesday.

On Monday, Littoral Combat Ship USS Gabrielle Giffords sailed near the 2nd Thomas Shoal, the first time since 2015, irking Beijing.

6. Satellite Surge

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense tracked 5 separate Chinese satellite launches in less than 1 week.

The unprecedented surge sparks questions about intentions. MND noted they posed no threat, but were identified because they passed its air defense zone.

7. China's Credit Cut to Negative

Moody's rating agency downgraded its outlook on China's sovereign credit—citing growing risks of lower economic growth & a crisis in the property sector.

Notably, Moody's told staff in China to work from home before the announcement.

8. Banking bubble bust?

"China is experiencing a full banking system collapse."

State-owned banks were instructed to roll over existing local government debt with longer-term loans at lower interest rates amid a deepening property crisis. Not a good sign…

9. Cooperation or confrontation?

From trade to human rights, the leaders of China & the European Union differed on a wide range of issues at a summit this week in Beijing.

Xi called for cooperation, not "confrontation," as the EU delegation considered imposing trade sanctions.
Unroll available on Thread Reader

10. PLAN Corvettes in Cambodia

Chinese warships have docked for the first time at Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base, currently undergoing a Chinese-funded upgrade.

The move comes as a Chinese general visits Phnom Penh, which is expected to further bolster ties between the 2 countries.

U.S. statement just released:

• These actions reflect not only reckless disregard for the safety & livelihoods of Filipinos, but also for international law.”

• We reaffirm that Article IV of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft—including those of its Coast Guard—anywhere in the South China Sea.

• • •
 

jward

passin' thru
Eric Sayers
@DEricSayers

Agree. The PRC does not want to escalate this gray zone activity to a kinetic conflict BUT they will keep pushing unless we “escalate” in some form. They are estimating we won’t because we largely haven’t for the last 13 years since this type of behavior started AND the rest of the world is burning. The US (and preferably other partners) should decide on steps to push back more publicly and directly at the source of these actions. Escort of the resupply, our own resupply of an ally, more presence nearby while an escort happens, all are consistent with our alliance and international law. Beijing will complain but is not eager to escalate to a kinetic conflict.

Is Asia our priority? Can we walk and chew gum like my Euro-centric American friends insist?



Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info

It's clear at this point, that the US is not willing to risk a confrontation with China, at least not for the sake of the EEZ of the Philippines.
Showing the flag & doing FONOPs won't change China's behavior and China knows that, so we can expect more of the same.

9:38 PM · Dec 10, 2023
1,192
Views
 

jward

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defenseone.com

China is using US-allied exercises to find ‘soft targets’: US Army’s Pacific chief​


Patrick Tucker​


Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin is leading a summit of defense industry officials in Washington with the goal of bolstering Ukraine’s ailing military supply chains and infrastructure after nearly two years of war.
The conference is a two-day event featuring officials from the White House’s National Security Council and the Departments of Commerce, Defense, and State. Ukrainians from the Office of the President and Ministries of Defense, Strategic Industry, and Foreign Affairs are also attending.
The U.S. has already committed more than $44 billion in security aid to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion began 651 days ago. Other allies and partners have committed another $36 billion, Austin said Wednesday. To put some of that in context, “as a percentage of their GDP, more than a dozen countries have actually contributed more than the United States,” he added.
Reminder: More than 60% of America’s total Ukraine aid is spent inside the U.S., as the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute points out in its tracker, here.
Austin: “We have already invested around $27 billion across more than 35 states for contracts to produce critical capabilities for Ukraine, including lifesaving air-defense systems, munitions, tactical vehicles, and other equipment,” the defense secretary told the audience Wednesday.
What’s new: “We’re working to make technical data packages and advanced manufacturing capabilities more readily available,” Austin said in his opening remarks. “That will let the Ukrainians produce spare parts closer to the point of need and more swiftly return vital equipment to the fight. And we must also strengthen the logistical and information-technology systems that bind all of these efforts together.”
“At the end of the day, we all benefit from the dynamic industrial bases of our global allies and partners, and that’s important far beyond Europe,” Austin said. “The whole world is watching, and we must come together to meet this moment,” he warned.
In a new first, the U.S. just unveiled war crimes charges against four Russia-affiliated military personnel on Wednesday. “The charges include torture, inhuman treatment, and unlawful confinement of a U.S. national in Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” the Justice Department said in a news release.
“Today’s indictment—the first ever under the U.S. war crimes statute—makes clear that the FBI will work with the full cooperation of international law enforcement to bring justice to the victims of these atrocities,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said. At this stage, it seems unlikely the perpetrators will be brought to justice, especially since, “If convicted, the defendants each face a maximum penalty of life in prison,” the Justice Department said. Details, here.
Meanwhile on Capitol Hill, GOP senators shouted their way through a classified Tuesday briefing intended to focus on Ukraine. GOP lawmakers afterward said they were angry that the meeting, organized by Senate Leader Chuck Schumer, was not about border security instead.
Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenskyy was expected to address the briefing from a secure remote connection, but he canceled at the last minute when Republican lawmakers “hijacked” the meeting “to grandstand about measures to clamp down on border crossings,” according to the New York Times, quoting Schumer. Joint Chiefs Chairman Air Force Gen. Charles Q. Brown attended, and was on the receiving end of some pointed anger from North Dakota Republican Kevin Cramer, who accused Brown of having never even visited the border. CNN reported Arkansas Republican Sen. Tom Cotton joined in the shouting; Cotton did not disagree.
“I hope we can all take a deep breath,” Virginia Democratic Sen. Mark Warner told CNN. “The historic consequences of abandoning Ukraine at this moment in time would haunt this country for decades. Who would ever trust our alliances again?” he asked.

Welcome to this Wednesday edition of The D Brief, brought to you by Ben Watson with Bradley Peniston. Share your newsletter tips, reading recommendations, or feedback for the year ahead here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1240, the Mongols invaded Kyiv after a weeklong siege; they continued to rule until about 1480.
Also from Capitol Hill: GOP Sen. Tommy Tuberville released most of his holds on officer promotions on Tuesday, largely ending a 9-month protest that failed to reduce troops’ access to abortion services but left the U.S. military increasingly shorthanded at its most senior jobs. Within hours, the Senate approved the promotion of 425 senior officers long held up by the Alabama Republican.
However, Tuberville maintained his hold on four-star nominations. A Pentagon spokesman said that means Tuberville will further delay filling 11 of the top posts in the military: the vice chiefs of the service branches; the commanders of U.S. Pacific Fleet, Pacific Air Forces, Air Combat Command, and the commanders of U.S. Northern Command, Cyber Command, and Space Command.
“In the end, this was all pointless,” President Joe Biden said in a statement. “These confirmations are long overdue, and should never have been held up in the first place. Our service members are the backbone of our country and deserve to receive the pay and promotions they have earned…Senator Tuberville, and the Republicans who stood with him, needlessly hurt hundreds of servicemembers and military families and threatened our national security – all to push a partisan agenda. I hope no one forgets what he did.”
“These holds have already dragged on needlessly for months, degrading our military readiness, and forcing far too many of our outstanding military families to put their lives on hold and endure even greater sacrifices,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in his own statement Tuesday. “While this day is long overdue, I welcome the Senate's confirmation of 425 of our highly qualified general and flag officers, who will at last be able to serve in critical positions to our national security,” he said. Read more at Defense One.
We forgot to note this on Tuesday, but the U.S. military says it killed five militants trying to launch a drone near Kirkuk, Iraq, on Sunday. The same day, Iraqi troops found a fuel truck modified to launch up to 20 rockets that had fired on U.S. forces hours earlier.
Another Iraqi militia claims to have targeted U.S. and allied troops twice again Wednesday, according to the Washington Institute’s ongoing tracker. Those attacks, featuring drones, were claimed by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, who say they targeted troops at al-Asad and Harir.
Related reading:
U.S. spending on defense personnel is rising, but it’s mostly not in your paystub, the Congressional Budget Office reports. Total compensation is up 144% (in real terms) since 2000, thanks mostly to Veterans Administration spending, which has risen “from a small fraction of the total to about 60 percent of military compensation in the President’s 2024 budget request,” CBO writes in “The Atlas of Military Compensation.”
You might guess that most of the increase goes to care for veterans wounded and injured in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, but that’s not quite right. Not only is the number of veterans declining year by year, but combat veterans make up an ever-smaller share of veterans who receive disability compensation.
So what’s happening? “A higher percentage of veterans serving after 9/11 (called Gulf War II veterans), both those who served in combat zones and those who did not, are applying for and receiving VA benefits more often and for an expanded list of covered conditions,” writes CBO, which lays out this and much more in a five-page fact sheet with nice infographics.
Those who want a bigger U.S. military should look to build things more cheaply, suggests the Wall Street Journal’s Greg Ip in a good overview of the obstacles to boosting American defense production.
And lastly: China’s military spending in 2022 was roughly one-third to one-half of U.S. levels, or between $292 and $476 billion in 2022, according to a new analysis from researchers at Brown University.
Why bring it up? “Claims that the Pentagon budget must be increased to ‘catch up’ with China don’t hold water,” said the study’s author, William Hartung of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
“The goal of U.S.-China policy should be cooperation, not confrontation,” Hartung advised. “There’s too much at stake to let bellicose rhetoric and mutual suspicion stand in the way of better relations between Washington and Beijing,” he added. Read more from Brown University’s renowned Costs of War project, here.
By the way: Three Chinese navy ships were sailing close to Somalia last week and ignored repeated distress calls from a nearby vessel as it came under attack by Somali pirates. The U.S. Navy and allied aircraft did respond, the pirates fled, and were eventually apprehended by the crew of the USS Mason, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters last week.
“Supposedly, those [Chinese] ships are there as part of a counter-piracy mission, but they did not respond,” Ryder said. “I'm not a lawyer, but under international maritime norms and laws, if there's a vessel that's hailing a distress signal and all vessels in the vicinity should — are, required to come and help and support,” he said.
A note on mythmaking: You may recall that in 2018 China produced a flashy, CGI-heavy movie sensationalizing the actions of its military near the Horn of Africa at the outbreak of the 2015 Saudi-led war in Yemen entitled, “Operation Red Sea.” It was China’s highest-grossing film that year. We watched it and would place it in the same hokey category as America’s 2012 cornball action caper, “Act of Valor.”


 

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Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info

White House official urges Senate to ratify the Law of the Sea The treaty is key to US opposition to Beijing's vast #SouthChinaSea claims, but Washington is not a party to it. The U.S. Senate should ratify the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea to pressure China to comply with its rules in the South China Sea, senior White House official Kurt Campbell said Thursday. President Joe Biden last month nominated Campbell for the role of deputy secretary of state to replace the retired Wendy Sherman. Known as Biden’s “Asia czar,” Campbell was architect of the Obama administration’s Pivot to Asia, which sought to refocus the United States away from the Middle East, and now serves as Coordinator for Indo-Pacific Affairs on Biden’s National Security Council

Speaking at his confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Campbell said he wanted the Senate to ratify the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, which governs what types of sovereignty claims countries can make to maritime areas. The United States signed the treaty in July 1994, but the Senate never ratified it. Washington nevertheless says it abides by the treaty’s rules, and often calls on China – a full party to the treaty – to do the same, which would invalidate many of its vast South China Sea claims. But it would be easier for the United States to prosecute its case against China if the Senate removed the blurred lines, Campbell said. “It makes it hard for other countries that we contest with, who say ‘Hey, you know, you can't hold us accountable to something that’s not your own law,’” Campbell said. “So it’s been a challenge for us.” “Even our allies and partners say, ‘Hey, wait a second. You're holding China to account to something you yourself haven't signed up for?’” he said, adding that it would be a priority for him if confirmed.

“We've gotten very close in the past; I'd love to get that over the finish line,” he said. “It'll be challenging. I'm committed to it.” Bipartisan support Sen. Brian Schatz, a Democrat from Hawaii sitting in as the temporary chair of the committee, said he thought “we can get the votes” to ratify. “The politics has changed, as we understand the urgent need for us to act together collectively on competition with China,” he said. The committee in 2004 voted 19-0 to ratify the treaty, with support from the Bush administration, but the Senate never met for a vote due to opposition from “a small group of conservative Republicans,” according to a Politico report from the time. A bipartisan group of Senators has recently pushed for ratification to be reconsidered, with support from Democrats like Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland and Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia and Republicans like Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana. During his hearing, Campbell received glowing reviews from senators from across the aisle, and promised the committee he was committed to a bipartisan approach to foreign policy if confirmed to his position. “I've spent an enormous amount of time with people on the Hill and on both sides of the aisle. Our best foreign policy initiatives are bipartisan, and they match the resolve of the executive and legislative branches,” he said. “I promise to take that forward.”

Popular vote Only Sen. Jim Risch, a Republican from Idaho who serves as his party’s ranking member on the committee, expressed any criticism of Campbell – and even then it was indirect, telling him that the White House’s approach to China “is headed in the wrong direction.” But the senators were otherwise only prepared to offer praise for the nominee, who frequently led his responses by recounting obscure details of a recent lunch, coffee or conversation they had shared. In the case of Risch and his rare criticism, Campbell said he was grateful for his staff speaking to him “clearly and unmistakably.” “I don't want to say that they schooled me,” Campbell said, “but I really came away with a much deeper appreciation” of Risch’s views. Many senators were openly effusive Sen. Bill Hagerty, a Republican from Tennessee, said Campbell was “most helpful, most insightful” when he himself served as U.S. ambassador to Japan under the Trump administration, and told the committee he was “delighted to see Kurt here in this position.” “The Indo-Pacific region is going to play a critical role in our world's future. It's home to 60% of the world's population, 50% of the world's GDP,” he said. “Someone with Kurt's unique insight and capability and expertise in that region, I think, is going to prove invaluable to us.” Campbell began a response to a question from Sen. Jeff Merkley, a Democrat from Oregon, about the Middle East by thanking him for hosting him for breakfast. He told the senator he would “make sure that your famous breakfast order is enshrined in the menu.” Merkley replied, without explanation, that it was called “The Trifecta.”

Not just Asia Campbell’s only real test was the breadth of his knowledge. Risch and Sen. Bob Menendez, a Democrat from New Jersey who served as the committee’s chairman until he was charged with bribery offenses in September, noted that the deputy secretary of state position was a generalist role, not only focused on Asia. He was accordingly grilled on Israel and Hamas, as well as on Turkey, Greece and Iran, among other countries. He told Risch, for instance, that the Biden administration would not seek to revive the nuclear deal with Iran that the Trump administration scrapped in May 2018. Sen. Cory Booker, a Democrat from New Jersey, then attempted to stump Campbell on Africa policy, telling him most people did not “understand the emergence Africa will have in the next 50 years.” “Even by 2050 alone,” Booker said, “they're gonna be so large that one out of every four people on the planet Earth will be African.” Without missing a beat, Campbell replied that his dissertation had been on the Soviet Union’s foreign policy in South Africa.

“I am actually an old Africanist – my PhD thesis at Oxford [University] was on Africa,” he said, adding it was well-received, too. “I remember I did get a call a few years ago saying, ‘Congratulations, your thesis has won an award ... [for] the book made most relevant by history.’” The committee was clearly impressed Schatz told Campbell he should reply to any written questions the senators have “as quickly as possible” to wrap-up the process. “We are trying to expedite the consideration of your nomination,” he said, “considering the importance it is to the State Department.” Edited by Malcolm Foster.
 

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@IndoPac_Info
The #Philippines summoned #Chinese ambassador Huang Xilian and filed a diplomatic protest against #China following the water cannon incidents in Bajo de Masinloc and Ayungin Shoal over the weekend, DFA spokesperson Teresita Daza says. Via CNN.
 

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Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News
@IndoPac_Info
#China testing waters in #SouthChinaSea vs #Philippines and #US

US is scrambling for a new strategy to prevent a major conflict in the area while dissuading China from intimidating rival claimants.

“The aggression and provocations perpetrated by [China’s maritime forces] over the weekend have only further steeled our determination to defend and protect our nation’s sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction” in the South China Sea,” declaredPhilippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr after yet another major incident in the hotly disputed waters.

According to Philippine authorities, a contingent of Chinese maritime forces “harassed, blocked and executed dangerous maneuvers” against a resupply mission to the Second Thomas Shoal, a contested feature hosting a small Philippine military contingent.

Manila claims that at least two Philippine Coast Guard vessels were damaged after getting water-cannoned by Chinese counterparts.

And no less than the Philippine military chief directly witnessed the latest encounter between the two rival claimants.

Meanwhile, a civil-society-led mission to the same area meant to express public support for Filipino troops stationed in the area was called off after four Chinese vessels shadowed them en route to Second Thomas Shoal.

The twin incidents provoked outrage in Manila, with senior legislative leaders openly calling for expulsion of the Chinese envoy to the Philippines.

China has countered by insisting that it was the Philippine vessels that had “illegally intruded” in its waters. It characterized its latest actions as simply part of broader “control measures” in accordance “with [Chinese] law.”

Far from a limited operation over a tiny shoal, however, China is determined is regain the initiative in the South China Sea.

Last week, China dispatched an armada of militia forces to another Philippine-claimed feature in the area, a prelude to likely new reclamation activities in the Spratly Islands.

By flexing its massive naval capabilities, the Asian superpower seeks to intimidateSoutheast Asian nations as well as test America’s resolve to assist its regional allies.

Blame game

Since 1999, a small detachment of Filipino troops have been precariously stationed on BRP Sierra Madre, a former US Navy ship the Philippines grounded in 1999 at Second Thomas Shoal.

With the rusty, dilapidated vessel expected to give way to the elements in the near future, both Manila and Beijing have ramped up their activities in the area.

China insists that the disputed land feature falls within its nine-dash-line maritime territory, which covers more than 80% of the South China Sea basin and includes the major Pratas, Paracels and Spratlys island chains as well as prized features such as Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal, which fall within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

In 2016, an arbitral tribunal body at The Hague, formed under the aegis of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), ruled against China’s expansive claims in the area and, crucially, determined that disputed features such as Second Thomas Shoal are “low-tide” elevations, which can’t be claimed as a territory.

Since the disputed shoal falls within the Philippines’ EEZ, the Southeast Asian nation claims it as part of its continental shelf.

But China has rejected the Philippines’ claims as well as the 2016 arbitral award ruling. Over the past decade, the Asian superpower has dramatically ramped up its efforts to exercise effective control over a whole host of disputed features in the area by, among other things, restricting Philippine resupply missions to Second Thomas Shoal.

With the Marcos administration taking an increasingly uncompromising stance in the South China Sea, while doubling down on his country’s defense alliance with the US, China has begun to switch gears. The upshot is multiple encounters in recent months alone, but this time was different.

“It’s pure aggression. I [personally] witnessed how many times the big Chinese coast guard and militia ships cut our path. They water-cannoned us, then bumped us. It’s angering,” exclaimed General Romeo Brawner Jr, chief of the Armed Forces of the Philippines.

“This really needs a diplomatic solution at the higher level,” he added, emphasizing the Philippine military’s commitment to stand its ground in the disputed waters.

Burning bridges

“This is a serious escalation on the part of the agents of the People’s Republic of China,” Jonathan Malaya, spokesman of the Philippine National Security Council, warned during a press conference.

Despite harassment by Chinese forces, Philippine authorities have pressed ahead with resupply missions.

And with the 2025 midterm elections fast approaching, top politicians have also joined the fray, tapping into rising anti-China sentiment among voters.

House of Representatives Speaker Martin Romualdez, a first cousin of the president and known for his own ambitions for the highest office, called on Beijing to “take immediate and concrete actions to cease these aggressive activities and uphold the principles of international law.”

In a statement, he emphasized that his country “stands firm in its sovereignty and jurisdiction over Bajo de Masinloc and its territorial sea.”

Meanwhile, his counterpart in the Philippine Senate, Miguel Zubiri, went so far as to suggest a potential downgrade in bilateral diplomatic relations. “I urge President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr to send the current Chinese ambassador home,” Zubiri said.

“He has done nothing to address the continued attacks of his government on our troops and on our people,” he added.

In response, Beijing has blamed the Philippines for provoking tensions in the South China Sea. According to the China Coast Guard, their Filipino counterparts ignored numerous warnings and “deliberately swerved and collided in an unprofessional, dangerous manner” with a Chinese boat.

“The responsibility lies entirely with the Philippines,” Chinese authorities added, revealing little appetite for compromise. It remains to be seen how far the Asian superpower is willing to go to prevent Manila from fortifying its position over contested features such as Second Thomas Shoal.

What’s clear is that China is determined to remind the Philippines, and other rival claimants in Southeast Asia, of its massive naval superiority.

China is also determined to press the Philippines in the South China Sea in order to dissuade it from granting the Pentagon full access to its northernmost bases near Taiwan’s shores under the expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).

But aside from intimidating smaller regional states, China is also intent on testing America’s resolve. As in previous incidents, Washington was quick to condemn Beijing’s latest actions.

“Obstructing supply lines to this long-standing outpost and interfering with lawful Philippine maritime operations undermines regional stability,” the US State Department said in statement.

“The United States stands with our Philippine allies in the face of these dangerous and unlawful actions. We reaffirm that Article IV of the 1951 US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty extends to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft – including those of its Coast Guard – anywhere in the South China Sea,” it added.

But employing increasingly aggressive “gray zone” tactics, which fall short of “armed attacks” on rival claimants, China has so far exposed the relative limits of the Philippine-US alliance.

As a result, the US is scrambling for a new strategy to prevent a major conflict in the area but also to dissuade China from intimidating rival claimants with relative impunity.

The upshot is an increasingly perilous game of chicken not only between China and rival claimants in the South China Sea, but also between the world’s two superpowers in a vital international body of water.
 

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Donald Trump Jr. and Ajit Pai follow
Square profile picture
Wall Street Silver
@WallStreetSilv

Coming soon to the USA and Europe?

Chinese 15-Minute cities are open air prisons. Cameras are everywhere and they are easy to lockdown.

Facial recognition is mandatory to enter and leave your neighborhood zone.

A special permit issued by the government is required if your friends want to visit you

⚠️⚠️⚠️
View: https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1734382409519452665?s=20
 

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Naval Power in the Pacific: China vs. The United States


by Peter Zeihan on December 13, 2023

There's been much discussion lately surrounding the changing power balances in the Pacific - specifically the dynamics between the US and China. Sure, China has numbers, but would you rather have 25 kayaks equipped with BB guns or five speedboats mounted with mini-guns?


That's pretty much the whole story between these two powers - quality over quantity. That's before we look at the fun new toys that the US is introducing, which will only bolster their strategic advantage in places like Midway and Guam.


With the Biden administration taking a firmer stance on security measures, I expect the United States' strategic advantage over China to grow. However, that doesn't mean we should completely disregard the Chinese navy just yet.

RT<13m
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sm_3B6MiZ0Y
 

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nknews.org
North Korea could launch ICBM soon, top South Korean official says | NK News
Colin Zwirko
~1 minute

Source tells NK News that Pyongyang has been carrying out ‘blatant’ preparations this week for test

North Korea could launch ICBM soon, top South Korean official says

North Korea launches a Hwasong-18 solid-fuel ICBM from a grass-covered launchpad in east Pyongyang on July 12, 2023. | Image: KCNA (July 13, 2023)

North Korea appears ready to test launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) soon, a top South Korean official said Thursday.

Kim Tae-hyo, principal deputy director of the presidential National Security Office, made the comments to reporters upon arriving in Washington on Thursday for the second bilateral Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) session between the ROK and U.S.
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asiatimes.com


Pyongyang’s pivot back to military tensions​


Gabriela Bernal​


Russia's President Vladimir Putin and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un visit the Vostochny Сosmodrome in the far eastern Amur region, Russia, September 13, 2023. Photo courtesy of the Russian News Agency Sputnik / Mikhail Metzel / Kremlin

More missile tests, rapidly advancing relations with Russia and China and zero progress on diplomacy with the United States and South Korea – this was the direction North Korea took in 2023. While the rest of the world was distracted by conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, Pyongyang continued biding its time, expanding its military arsenal and solidifying its Cold War-era alliances.

The year started with Kim Jong Un calling for a massive increase in the production of tactical nuclear weapons and labelling South Korea as its “undoubted enemy,” signaling little interest in returning to the times of inter-Korean cooperation under former South Korean president Moon Jae-in.
Oleg Kozhemyako, governor of the Russian far eastern region of Primorsky and Ji Kyong Su, North Korea's vice minister of External Economic Relations walk during a march on the day the two countries met for talks on economic cooperation, in Pyongyang, in this picture released by the Korean Central News Agency on 13 December 2023 (Photo: Reuters/Korean Central News Agency).

Instead, North Korea unveiled four new missiles at a military parade on 8 February and just ten days later conducted its first missile test of the year — a long-range missile that fell in Japan’s exclusive economic zone.

Pyongyang’s irritation at Seoul grew even more in April when the current South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol flew to Washington to meet with US President Joe Biden. In response to the US–South Korea joint statement released after the summit, Kim’s sister Kim Yo Jong said it would “only result in making peace and security of Northeast Asia and the world be exposed to more serious danger, and it is an act that can thus never be welcome.”
Sensing that the Yoon government was opting for an all-in strategy with the United States and Japan, the Kim government in the North also began shifting its attention to old-time allies Russia and China.
Kim Jong Un expressed support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, saying Moscow ‘will prevail’ in its fight against what he described as “imperialists.” In April, Chinese leader Xi Jinping also expressed willingness to elevate bilateral ties with North Korea to a higher level by “strengthening the strategic communication and jointly guiding” the development of Beijing–Pyongyang relations.

Russia and China publicly displayed their support for North Korea in June when both ignored a US call to condemn Pyongyang’s satellite launch and instead blamed Washington for raising tensions.
The most important partnership for North Korea this year has been with Russia. After Kim Jong Un hosted a Russian delegation in Pyongyang in July, the level of bilateral cooperation significantly deepened in September when he made a personal visit to Russia to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The two leaders agreed to expand cooperation in military and other fields, with the Russian leader expressing willingness to assist North Korea with its space program. In return, North Korea allegedly agreed to supply Russia with artillery for its war in Ukraine.

In October, South Korea, the United States and Japan confirmed and condemned several deliveries of North Korean weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine. While the United States accuses North Korea of supplying over 1000 containers of military equipment and munitions to Russia, Pyongyang denies the claims.
North Korean and Russian officials held talks again in November in Pyongyang to discuss further expanding cooperation in the fields of economy, science and technology. Trade with Russia has increased significantly since Kim’s visit.
Chinese traders have also reportedly begun re-entering North Korea for the first time since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, although many remain wary of reinvesting in the country or expanding economic cooperation. Still, China will likely continue providing aid to North Korea.
Cooperation with Russia may already be paying off as Pyongyang succeeded in launching a satellite for the first time on November 23, 2023.
afp6049861266587487660780612363099535324409-cover-image-1_640x360.jpg
Image released by North Korea’s official Korean Central Television on Thursday November 23, 2023, shows the launch of a rocket carrying a North Korean military spy satellite. The satellite would ‘formally start its reconnaissance mission from December 1 after finishing 7 to 10 days’ fine-tuning process,’ KCNA said, adding that it was already transmitting images. Photo: KCTV
South Korea’s intelligence service accused Russia of providing the necessary support to make the launch happen, with the Yoon government announcing the partial suspension of the 2018 inter-Korean Comprehensive Military Agreement soon after the launch. The South Korean response marks a significant move in a risky direction.
Under the 2018 deal, North and South Korea had agreed to “cease all hostile acts’”along the border by imposing no-fly zones and maritime peace zones, removing guard posts, and halting propaganda activities among others. But now, the North has vowed to “withdraw the military steps taken to prevent military tension and conflict” while announcing plans to launch “several reconnaissance satellites in a short span of time.”

Due to these recent developments, there is now a heightened risk of inadvertent border clashes and North Korea is more likely to engage in more provocative weapons tests, potentially including a nuclear test.
Amid the ongoing diplomatic stalemate, an opportunity presents itself with the upcoming 2024 US presidential elections. While a Biden re-election could lead to renewed nuclear testing, a Trump victory may result in revisiting diplomacy. The most important thing for Pyongyang is that the new US president adopts a marked change in North Korea policy – one that is open to concessions, arms control and setting the denuclearization issue aside.
With the sanctions regime effectively dead, North Korea is forming increasingly close partnerships with Russia and China and its military capabilities are rapidly improving. The suspension of the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement shows that the peninsula’s security situation is at risk of further deteriorating in 2024.

Gabriela Bernal is a PhD candidate at the University of North Korean Studies, Seoul.
This article was originally published by East Asia Forum, which is based out of the Crawford School of Public Policy within the College of Asia and the Pacific at the Australian National University. The article is republished under a Creative Commons license.




Pyongyang’s pivot back to military tensions
 

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EndGameWW3
@EndGameWW3

U.S. nuclear-powered sub arrives in S. Korea amid possibility of N.K. ICBM launch






en.yna.co.kr


U.S. nuclear-powered sub arrives in S. Korea amid possibility of N.K. ICBM launch​


Yi Wonju

~2 minutes


SEOUL, Dec. 17 (Yonhap) -- A U.S. nuclear-powered submarine arrived in South Korea on Sunday, Seoul's defense ministry said, amid concerns North Korea could launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) this month.
The USS Missouri (SSN-780), a Virginia-class attack submarine, entered a key naval base in Busan, 320 kilometers southeast of Seoul, earlier in the day, according to the South Korean Navy.

"With the deployment of the USS Missouri, we plan to strengthen naval exchanges and cooperation with the United States and to bolster our combined defense posture," it added.
The deployment of the submarine comes just three weeks after the USS Santa Fe (SSN-763), a Los Angeles-class submarine, entered the Jeju Naval Base on the southern resort island.

Earlier this week, Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo raised the possibility of North Korea launching an ICBM in December as he arrived in Washington for a meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), a South Korea-U.S. security meeting designed to discuss nuclear and strategic planning issues.
North Korea last test-fired a Hwasong-18 solid-fuel ICBM in July.
This photo, provided by the U.S. Pacific Fleet on Feb. 26, 2023, shows the USS Springfield nuclear-powered fast attack submarine arriving at the naval base in South Korea's southern port city of Busan on Feb. 23. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

This photo, provided by the U.S. Pacific Fleet on Feb. 26, 2023, shows the USS Springfield nuclear-powered fast attack submarine arriving at the naval base in South Korea's southern port city of Busan on Feb. 23. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
julesyi@yna.co.kr
(END)


U.S. nuclear-powered sub arrives in S. Korea amid possibility of N.K. ICBM launch | Yonhap News Agency
 

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nknews.org
North Korea could launch ICBM soon, top South Korean official says | NK News
Colin Zwirko
~1 minute

Source tells NK News that Pyongyang has been carrying out ‘blatant’ preparations this week for test

North Korea could launch ICBM soon, top South Korean official says

North Korea launches a Hwasong-18 solid-fuel ICBM from a grass-covered launchpad in east Pyongyang on July 12, 2023. | Image: KCNA (July 13, 2023)

North Korea appears ready to test launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) soon, a top South Korean official said Thursday.

Kim Tae-hyo, principal deputy director of the presidential National Security Office, made the comments to reporters upon arriving in Washington on Thursday for the second bilateral Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) session between the ROK and U.S.
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Collin Koh and Indo-Pacific News - Geo-Politics & Defense News follow
ハク Mason
@mason_8718

This is very interesting.
South Korean K-21 has participated in Latvia's IFV acquisition program.
Reportedly the GDELS's 'ASCOD' and Turkish 'Tulpar' also participated.
Mass produced Korean K-21(466+120) is powerful and precision.
3rd generation MBT grade FCS and ammunition selectable 40mm cannon makes K-21 is deadliest IFV.
The K-21 can easily engage air targets with Air burst 'Multi-mode Fused Ammunition'.
- Hunter Killer(IFF, 3rd generation IIR sight, Gunner's Primary Sight).
- Network engagement(IVTIN, BMS).
In arm Suspension Unit.
- APFSDS, HE, MMFA amunitions.
- Water jet capability.
On the other hand, Hanwha Redback is selected by Australia. the Redback also participated several countries IFV acquisition program(Romania).
 
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