ALERT The Winds of War Blow in Korea and The Far East

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Housecarl

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www.dw.com

South Korea brands North Korea an enemy state – DW – 02/16/2023

South Korea has released a paper describing North Korea as its enemy for the first time in several years. The document highlights Pyongyang's growing stockpile of nuclear weapons and missiles.
www.dw.com www.dw.com

POLITICSNORTH KOREA

South Korea brands North Korea an enemy state​

20 hours ago
20 hours ago

South Korea has released a paper describing North Korea as its enemy for the first time in several years. The document highlights Pyongyang's growing stockpile of nuclear weapons and missiles.

A biennial study by South Korean experts on Thursday reported an increase in Pyongyang's stockpile of weapons-grade uranium and its increasing arsenal of missiles.

During a period of detente in the 2000s, South Korea ceased using such enemy terminologies, but brought them back after 50 South Korean navy sailors were killed in a 2010 torpedo attack that Seoul blamed on North Korea.

Details of the report​

For the first time since 2016, the defense paper described the North Korean regime as "our enemy," citing the isolated country's military and cyber provocations.

The report said that North Korea has continued reprocessing spent fuel from its reactor and now has some 70 kilograms (154 pounds) of weapons-grade plutonium. That figure is up from 50 kilograms in a previous report for 2022, it said.

The document said Pyongyang's nuclear programs and tests were "seriously threatening our security."

"As North Korea continues to pose military threats without giving up nuclear weapons, its regime and military, which are the main agents of the execution, are our enemies," the document said.

The paper said the North had violated a 2018 inter-Korean military pact that bans hostilities on 15 occasions in the last year alone.

These included the firing of artillery inside a military buffer zone and the launching of missiles launched across the de-facto maritime border into the South in November.

In a description that remains unchanged since 2018, the report said Pyongyang had secured "substantial" amounts of highly enriched uranium" and a "significant level of capability" to miniaturize atomic bombs.

Crucially, the document noted that the North had itself defined the South as an "undoubted enemy" in December 2022. "Therefore, the North Korean regime and the North Korean military, which are the main agents of the activities, are our enemy," it said.

Peninsular rivals remain in state of war​

North and South Korea have remained technically at war since the 1950-53 Korean War ended with an armistice rather than a peace treaty. A rare spell of diplomacy in 2019 came to an end, and talks have stalled with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un renewing an emphasis on military development.

Kim last year declared his country an "irreversible" nuclear state. The North has carried out sanctions-breaching weapons tests nearly every month since, including the test launch of its most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile.

Seoul's new conservative administration has responded by seeking a stronger US security commitment, ramping up joint drills, and boosting its own military capabilities.

rc/fb (AP, AFP)
 
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www.38north.org

North Korea’s Feb. 8 Parade Highlights ICBMs and Tactical Nukes - 38 North: Informed Analysis of North Korea

North Korea conducted a military parade on the evening of February 8 to mark the 75th anniversary of the Korean…
www.38north.org

North Korea’s Feb. 8 Parade Highlights ICBMs and Tactical Nukes​

North Korea conducted a military parade on the evening of February 8 to mark the 75th anniversary of the Korean People’s Army. Television and press coverage showed four road-mobile launchers for a probable new solid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), an unprecedented 12 mobile launchers for the large liquid-propellant Hwasong (HS)-17 ICBM, and 24 launchers for short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs) in what the North termed “tactical nuclear weapons operation units.”

On the ICBM front, there were a couple key takeaways:

  • North Korea’s pursuit of solid propellent for ICBMs comes as no surprise, as this goal has been indicated on several occasions. Solid-propellant ICBMs provide several operational benefits over liquid propellant ICBMs. They are “safer to handle in the field” and “have a much smaller logistical footprint,” making “units easier to conceal.” Although the parade might indicate that its first flight test could occur soon, the actual status of the ICBM’s development is unknown.
  • Displaying so many HS-17 launchers may be a sign that North Korea considers the system as operationally deployed. It may also mean that North Korean mobile ICBM deployments are no longer constrained by a shortage of large truck chassis, although we still do not know how many chassis Pyongyang can import from China and/or produce indigenously.
It has been suggested that the advent of 12 HS-17 launchers means the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) can now overwhelm existing US missile defenses and ensure US vulnerability. While a US planner would reasonably need to proceed on this basis, a North Korean planner would likely expect some ICBMs to be destroyed before launch and to experience technical failures, and for US defenses to be more efficient and effective. Even if able to be overwhelmed, US defenses will still have value against limited attacks, in complicating North Korean attack planning and limiting damage. Moreover, the US possesses an overwhelming nuclear retaliatory force that has to be factored into North Korean calculations as well.

Showing off a new solid ICBM and multiple ICBM launchers clearly signals North Korea’s ability to threaten the US homeland, its advancing technology and missile production capability and its intention to retain missiles; while parading “tactical nukes” highlights the nuclear threat it poses to South Korea. In underscoring both missile types, Pyongyang is sending a strong deterrence message while probably seeking to dissuade escalation from Washington in a crisis and erode Seoul’s confidence in US extended deterrence.

Underscoring Solid-propellant ICBM Development

North Korea paraded four nine-axle mobile launchers in the event’s finale, each carrying what appeared to be a transport launch canister for an ICBM. Interestingly, the North Koreans did not characterize the system beyond TV coverage, noting it is a “‘Hwasong’-class missile.” But outside analysts’ assessment that the canister represents a solid-propellant ICBM system is almost certainly correct. The canister resembles ones used for the Chinese DF-41 and Russian SS-27 solid ICBMs, and North Korea paraded a similar canister on a similar mobile launcher in 2017.

The canister appears to have a gas-generating launch assist device on the aft end for “cold-launching” the missile by creating gasses to pop the missile out before first-stage ignition to protect the launcher from damage by the exhaust plume. Kim Jong Un noted the existence of a solid ICBM development program in January 2021 and most recently mentioned “a task…to develop another ICBM system whose main mission is quick nuclear counterstrike” in his report to the December 26-31, 2022 meeting of the Korean Workers’ Party Central Committee.

Although some analysts regard the parade as an indicator that a flight test could occur soon or within the year, the actual status of the solid ICBM development program is unknown—as are the contents of the paraded canisters. Pyongyang has yet to flight test a solid ICBM. It announced last December a static (ground) test of a solid-propellant rocket motor large enough to serve as an ICBM first stage, although it did not attribute the motor to a given type of missile system, and commercial imagery analysts assess a similar test may have occurred in late January 2023. A new solid ICBM probably would have three booster stages, however, and ground tests of second- and third-stage motors (one or both of which may be smaller in diameter) have not been reported in open sources.

Beyond demonstrating North Korea’s technological prowess, solid-propellant ICBMs offer operational advantages over liquid ICBMs like the earlier HS-15 and HS-17. As noted in a previous 38 North piece, solid propellants “are safer to handle in the field than liquids (especially if deployed on mobile launchers) and have a much smaller logistical footprint that makes field-deployed mobile missile units easier to conceal.”

Displaying Multiple Hwasong-17 ICBMs

The four probable solid ICBM launchers were preceded in the parade by eleven 11-axle road-mobile launchers carrying HS-17 liquid-propellant ICBMs (with a 12th launcher nearby in case needed to fill in for a breakdown). Only four HS-17 launchers had been seen at one time previously. Moreover, the HS-17 and solid ICBM launchers (like that for the already-deployed HS-15 ICBM) are based on the Chinese WS51200 truck chassis, of which North Korea previously was known to have only eight and China was only reported to have supplied six. This indicates that China has been supplying additional such chassis and/or that North Korea has developed the capability to produce such chassis itself. Either way, it may be that obtaining additional large chassis is no longer a significant constraint on North Korean mobile ICBM deployments, although we still do not know how many chassis the DPRK can import from China and/or produce indigenously.

Displaying so many HS-17 launchers may also be a sign that North Korea considers the ICBM to be operationally deployed, although it has only gone as far publically to characterize the most recent flight test in November 2022 as the final developmental test. (By North Korean standards, it is plausible the HS-17 would be deployed based only on its one or two successful launches to date.) Interestingly, an apparent missile unit flag with an illustration of an HS-17 and the partially legible date “2022.11” was seen at the parade and in photos of a February 6 meeting of the Central Military Commission attended by Kim Jong Un, suggesting that an HS-17 unit was established in November 2022. Unit creation does not necessarily mean operational deployment; for example, on these same occasions, there was also an apparent unit flag for the untested solid-propellant ICBM and an unidentified third type of missile.

Overmatching US Missile Defenses…Maybe Not Yet

It has been suggested that, by revealing 12 HS-17 launchers, North Korea has now shown that it can overwhelm existing US homeland missile defenses and ensure US vulnerability to missile attacks. This contention is based on the US using four of its current 44 long-range missile interceptors against each of the first 11 incoming single-warhead HS-17s to have the greatest probability of warhead destruction. (The possibility of the HS-17 carrying multiple warheads has also been noted. However, while Kim Jong Un claimed in January 2021 that the North was in the final stage of “perfecting the guidance technology for multi-warhead rocket,” there is still no direct evidence it is developing or testing them.)

  • A conservative US planner would reasonably need to proceed on the basis that a 4-on-1 missile defense engagement would exhaust the current supply of interceptors, especially since a number of HS-15 ICBMs have probably been deployed since 2017 as well.
  • A conservative North Korean planner, on the other hand, would likely expect that some proportion of the ICBM force would have been destroyed in the conventional phase of a war prior to nuclear use, that some of the surviving ICBMs would fail to launch or reach reentry due to technical problems (perhaps a substantial number, given flight test results to date), that the US might use fewer than four interceptors per incoming warhead (particularly if the first, second or third interceptor had been seen destroying a given warhead), and that US defenses are more effective than many Western academics conclude.
Thus, it is far from clear that some magic threshold has now been reached regarding North Korea’s ability to overwhelm US missile defenses. On the other hand, it is reasonable to presume that North Korea seeks to deploy, and eventually will deploy, enough ICBMs and warheads to overmatch current and programmed US national missile defenses. But even then, such defenses will still have value against accidental/unauthorized launches and limited attacks, in complicating North Korean attack planning and limiting damage to the US. Moreover, even if US missile defenses are overmatched, the US has and will retain an overwhelming nuclear retaliatory capability that it makes clear will “end” the North Korean regime—and thus a powerful deterrent to North Korean nuclear attack.

Showing Off “Tactical Nuclear Operations Units.”

Parading before the HS-17s were six 4-tube KN-25 and six dual-missile KN-23 SRBM launchers, six 4-tube launchers for the small SRBM flight tested in April 2022, and six 5-tube LACM launchers. The North Korean press collectively referred to these as “tactical nuclear weapons operation units.” Pyongyang has previously indicated that the KN-23, KN-25 and LACM were operationally deployed; the new small SRBM is only known to have been tested on one occasion (two missiles), and it is unclear if parading some four launchers signifies its deployment.

This highlighting of “tactical nukes” is consistent with North Korean efforts since Kim first mentioned such weapons in January 2021, especially with the regime’s emphasis on them in October 2022. North Korea clearly sees substantial propaganda and deterrent value in brandishing “tactical nukes,” which uniquely threaten South Korea. It probably also relishes the common perception that “tactical” nukes imply more technical sophistication.

Letting the Missiles Do the Talking…to Washington and Seoul

The lack of detailed public statements about missiles in conjunction with the parade is notable and consistent with the spare treatment of missiles in Kim’s late-December report to the Central Committee. Nonetheless, by parading an unprecedented number of ICBM launchers, including components of a new solid missile system, North Korea was clearly signaling its ability to threaten the US homeland, its advancing technology and substantial missile production capability, and its intention to retain its missile programs despite international sanctions and hopes Pyongyang can be induced to trade them away.

Parading “tactical nuclear weapons operation units” highlights the nuclear threat to Seoul and US forces on the peninsula in addition to furthering the other objectives noted above, and probably also seeks to foment tensions in the Alliance. In underscoring both ICBMs and “tactical nukes” together, Pyongyang is sending a strong deterrence message while probably seeking to dissuade American escalation in a crisis or provocation and erode Seoul’s confidence in the credibility of US extended deterrence.
 
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South Korea says North Korea fires missile as allies ready drills
Associated Press
5–6 minutes

South Korea’s military said North Korea on Saturday fired one suspected long-range missile from its capital toward the sea, a day after it threatened to take strong measures against South Korea and the U.S. over their joint military exercises.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff in Seoul said the ballistic missile was fired at around 5:22 p.m. from an area in Sunan, the site of Pyongyang’s international airport. It didn’t immediately say where the weapon landed.

North Korea’s Foreign Ministry on Friday threatened with “unprecedently” strong action against its rivals, after South Korea announced a series of planned military exercises with the United States aimed at sharpening their response to the North’s growing threats.

Toshiro Ino, Japan’s vice minister for defense, said the missile was expected have landed in waters within Japan’s exclusive economic zone, about 125 mileswest of Oshima island. Oshima lies off the western coast of the northernmost main island of Hokkaido.

“We are doing our utmost, working closely with the U.S., to gain information, analyze and take appropriate vigilance and surveillance measures to protect the lives and property of our people,” he told reporters.
North Korea displayed its Nuclear weapons during a parade on Feb. 8, 2023.
via REUTERS

The launch was North Korea’s first known testing activity since Jan. 1, when it test-fired a short-range weapon. It followed a massive military parade in Pyongyang last week where troops rolled out more than a dozen intercontinental ballistic missiles as leader Kim Jong Un watched in delight from a balcony.

The unprecedented number of missiles underscored a continuation of expansion of his country’s military capabilities despite limited resources while negotiations with Washington remain stalemated.

Those missiles included a new system experts say is possibly linked to the North’s stated desire to acquire a solid-fuel ICBM. North Korea’s existing ICBMs, including Hwasong-17s, use liquid propellants that require pre-launch injections and cannot remain fueled for prolonged periods. A solid-fuel alternative would take less time to prepare and is easier to move around on vehicles, providing less opportunity to be spotted.

It wasn’t immediately clear whether Saturday’s launch involved a solid-fuel system.

North Korea is coming off a record year in weapons demonstrations with more than 70 ballistic missiles fired, including ICBMs with potential range to reach the U.S. mainland. The North also conducted a slew of launches it described as simulated nuclear attacks against South Korean and U.S. targets in response to the allies’ resumption of large-scale joint military exercise that had been downsized for years.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attends a military parade marking the 75th of North Korea's army on Feb. 8, 2023.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attends a military parade marking the 75th of North Korea’s army on Feb. 8, 2023.
via REUTERS

North Korea’s missile tests have been punctuated by threats of preemptive nuclear attacks against South Korea or the United States over what it perceives as a broad range of scenarios that put its leadership under threat.

Kim doubled down on his nuclear push entering 2023, calling for an “exponential increase” in the country’s nuclear warheads, mass production of battlefield tactical nuclear weapons targeting “enemy” South Korea and the development of more advanced ICBMs.

The North Korean statement on Friday accused Washington and Seoul of planning more than 20 rounds of military drills this year, including large-scale field exercises, and described its rivals as “the arch-criminals deliberately disrupting regional peace and stability.”
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un takes in a military parade on Feb. 10, 2023, in North Korea.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un takes in a military parade on Feb. 8, 2023, in North Korea.
KCNA VIA KNS/AFP via Getty Images

The statement came hours after South Korea’s Defense Ministry officials told lawmakers that Seoul and Washington will hold an annual computer-simulated combined training in mid-March. The 11-day training would reflect North Korea’s nuclear threats, as well as unspecified lessons from the Russia-Ukraine war, according to Heo Tae-keun, South Korea’s deputy minister of national defense policy.

Heo said the two countries will also conduct joint field exercises in mid-March that would be bigger than those held in the past few years.

South Korea and the U.S. will also hold a one-day tabletop exercise next week at the Pentagon to sharpen a response to a potential use of nuclear weapons by North Korea.

The exercise, scheduled for Wednesday, would set up possible scenarios where North Korea uses nuclear weapons, explore how to cope with them militarily and formulate crisis management plans, South Korea’s Defense Ministry said.

North Korea has traditionally described U.S.-South Korea military exercises as rehearsals for a potential invasion, while the allies insist that their drills are defensive in nature.
nypost.com

South Korea says North Korea fires missile as allies ready drills

South Korea’s military said North Korea on Saturday fired one suspected long-range missile from its capital toward the sea, a day after it threatened to take strong measures against South Korea and…
nypost.com nypost.com


NSC meets over N. Korea's suspected long-range missile launch | Yonhap News Agency
김수연
~1 minute

SEOUL, Feb. 18 (Yonhap) -- The presidential National Security Council held a meeting Saturday after North Korea fired a suspected long-range ballistic missile toward the East Sea, the presidential office said.

The NSC standing committee started the meeting at 6:30 p.m., presided over by National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han, it said.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it detected the launch from the Sunan area in Pyongyang at 5:22 p.m. It marked the second missile provocation by the North this year.

This undated file photo released by the Korean Central News Agency shows a North Korean missile launch. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

This undated file photo released by the Korean Central News Agency shows a North Korean missile launch. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

AFP News Agency
@AFP
6m

#UPDATE A suspected ballistic missile fired from North Korea on Saturday is believed to have landed within Japan's exclusive economic zone, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said.
1676716581692.png
Nathan J Hunt
@ISNJH
8m

If DPRK did do an unexpected solid motor ICBM test it will be interesting to see what shape the new missile takes and comparing its dimensions to the canister we saw just paraded. Below image reference model I have been working on modeling of the new TEL...
1676716624616.png
エターナル総書記
@kelog21
テポドン初激写！！！
Translated from Japanese by

First shot of Taepodong! ! !
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626890664809201665
View: https://twitter.com/kelog21/status/1626890664809201665?s=20
 
Last edited:
Maryh

Maryh

Veteran Member
Not happy about that as daughter will be there in a short time. Probably NK's usual bluster to be noticed but hope he doesn't accidently start something!
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
How long will she be there, Mary? I doubt things go completely fubar in the extreme short term, but I'd want my loved ones visits to measure in weeks n months, not years and decades.
 
jward

jward

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Dr Marco Langbroek
@Marco_Langbroek
1h

Approximate trajectory flown by the #ICBM that #NorthKorea tested today. A highly lofted trajectory.
(reconstruction based on Japanese DoD info).
When launched on a 'normal', non-lofted trajectory, the range would be 18000+ km, i.e. capable of reaching any place on Earth
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626945720967208961
View: https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1626945720967208961?s=20


Trajectory is based on rough information on apogee, range, and map with approximate impact point provided by Japanese DoD here:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626946180922966017
View: https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1626946180922966017?s=20


It will be interesting to see what missile it concerns when Northg Korea publishes their propaganda photo's. Hwasong-17? Something new?



TP
@salads_tp
10m
Replying to @Marco_Langbroek

This is the easier step in the steps needed to have a deliverable weapon. DPRK probably still has a long way to go in the development of a warhead/bus with MIRVs, that can survive reentry and have useful CEP.
 
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Housecarl

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Posted for fair use.....
www.bbc.com

N Korea fires missile after threatening retaliation

Pyongyang fires a missile into the sea a day after warning the US and Seoul against military drills.
www.bbc.com

N Korea fires missile after threatening retaliation​

Published
24 minutes ago

By Tiffany Wertheimer
BBC News

North Korea fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Saturday in a "surprise" drill to confirm the weapon's reliability, state media said.

It flew over 900km (560 miles) for 67 minutes and landed in the Sea of Japan.

Pyongyang said the test showed it was capable of countering hostile forces like the US and South Korea.
It comes ahead of joint exercises between Washington and Seoul next month, designed to help fend off North Korea's increasing nuclear threats.

Authorities in Pyongyang have threatened to unleash an "unprecedently strong" retaliation to any such drills - which it insists are being done in preparation to invade North Korea.

This was reinforced early on Sunday by Kim Yo-jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who said any hostile acts would be met with a "strong and overwhelming" response. She also urged the US to end what she called "threats" against the regime.

But she added that the South Korean capital, Seoul, would not be targeted by North Korean missiles.
On Friday, North Korea showed off its massive military might in a parade that included more than a dozen ICBMs.

Saturday's missile, which is the first to be launched since new year's day, splashed down west of Hokkaido, in Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) at 18:27 (09:27 GMT), Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said. An EEZ is an area of the sea that a country has jurisdiction over. Japan's is a 200-nautical mile area off its coast.

It reached an altitude of 5,700km, government spokesperson Hirokazu Matsuno said in Tokyo. While that is incredibly high - the edge of space is about 100km - it is not the highest a North Korean missile has flown.

In November, an ICBM reached an altitude of 6,100km. Previously, in January 2022, North Korea released extraordinary photos of the Earth that it claimed were taken from a missile launch that reached 2,000km.

ICBMs are particularly worrying because of their long range, including mainland United States.

Japan's Defence Minister Hamada Yasukazu said Saturday's missile would have been able to do this, with a possible range of 14,000km.

"This series of actions by North Korea threatens the peace and stability of Japan and the international community, and is absolutely unforgivable," Mr Matsuno said.

North Korea's "reckless behaviour" was condemned by the G7 foreign ministers, who are attending a summit in Germany. In a statement, they said it "threatens regional and international peace and security" and the UN Security Council needed to take more significant measures against Pyongyang.

South Korea's military reported the missile was launched from the Sunan district, north of Pyongyang, where the international airport is located. It is also where North Korea has launched most of its recent ICBM tests.

North Korea's ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programmes are banned by the UN Security Council. But this has not stopped Pyongyang from continuing with its weapons development, and holding elaborate military parades to show them off.

Just over a week ago, Pyongyang showed off its largest display ever of intercontinental ballistic missiles in a midnight military parade which was attended by leader Kim Jong-un.
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
jward said:
Dr Marco Langbroek
@Marco_Langbroek
1h

Approximate trajectory flown by the #ICBM that #NorthKorea tested today. A highly lofted trajectory.
(reconstruction based on Japanese DoD info).
When launched on a 'normal', non-lofted trajectory, the range would be 18000+ km, i.e. capable of reaching any place on Earth
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626945720967208961
View: https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1626945720967208961?s=20


Trajectory is based on rough information on apogee, range, and map with approximate impact point provided by Japanese DoD here:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626946180922966017
View: https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/1626946180922966017?s=20


It will be interesting to see what missile it concerns when Northg Korea publishes their propaganda photo's. Hwasong-17? Something new?



TP
@salads_tp
10m
Replying to @Marco_Langbroek

This is the easier step in the steps needed to have a deliverable weapon. DPRK probably still has a long way to go in the development of a warhead/bus with MIRVs, that can survive reentry and have useful CEP.
Click to expand...

map_Hwasong17_orbital_275kg_Cd1p0_0p15m2_inc98_anot.jpg



What we really known about the North Korean space-rockets and ballistic missiles

www.b14643.de
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
en.yna.co.kr


(3rd LD) N. Korea fires 2 short-range ballistic missiles toward East Sea: S. Korean military | Yonhap News Agency​


김수연​

(ATTN: UPDATES with N. Korea's announcement in paras 5-8, 13)
SEOUL, Feb. 20 (Yonhap) -- North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) toward the East Sea on Monday, Seoul's military said, a day after South Korea and the United States staged joint air drills, involving B-1B bombers, in response to the North's long-range missile launch.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it detected the launch from the Sukchon area in South Pyongan Province between 7 a.m. and 7:11 a.m. It did not immediately provide details.
"While strengthening its monitoring and vigilance, our military is maintaining a full readiness posture in close cooperation with the U.S.," the JCS said in a text message sent to reporters.
Monday's launch marks the North's third missile provocation this year.
About an hour after the JCS announcement, North Korea said its military carried out firing drills involving multiple rocket launchers at 7 a.m.

An artillery unit of the Korean People's Army (KPA) launched two rounds of shots from the 600-mm rocket launch system toward the East Sea, according to the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
The North described the "super-large" rocket launcher as a means of "tactical nuclear attack," stressing that its latest firing drills reinforced the KPA's readiness to respond to the allies' air force power.

In a ceremony to "present" the 600-mm rocket launcher at a key party meeting in late December, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called it an "offensive weapon" capable of carrying tactical nuclear warheads that could put the entire South Korea within its range.
The latest saber-rattling raised concerns that the North may continue to engage in such provocations as the allies plan to hold a tabletop military exercise against North Korean nuclear threats this week and their springtime Freedom Shield exercise next month.

The allies carried out the air drills, involving the U.S. bombers and South Korean F-35A stealth jets, on Sunday as the North launched what it claims to be a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Saturday.
Kim Yo-jong, the influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, issued another sharp-tongued threat of "corresponding" actions against the allies' military drills.
"The frequency of using the Pacific as our firing range depends upon the U.S.," she said in an English-language statement carried by the KCNA.

She said the North is "carefully" examining the impact of the deployment of U.S. strategic assets on its security, vowing to "take corresponding counteraction" if the move is judged to pose any "direct or indirect" threat to the North.

Youtube
View: https://youtu.be/9ZTSmKKkudY

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Feb. 19, 2023, shows the North's launch of a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile at a lofted angle the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Feb. 19, 2023, shows the North's launch of a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile at a lofted angle the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

N. Korea warns of 'unprecedentedly' strong counteractions against S. Korea-U.S. drills​

rt<1m
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ZTSmKKkudY
 
jward

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(LEAD) N. Korea says it fired Hwasong-15 ICBM at lofted angle | Yonhap News Agency​


김수연​



(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with details, meeting of S. Korea, U.S., Japanese top diplomats; ADDS photos)
SEOUL, Feb. 19 (Yonhap) -- North Korea said Sunday it has fired a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at a lofted angle in a "sudden launching" drill aimed at ensuring the country's powerful nuclear deterrent.

"The drill was suddenly organized without previous notice under an emergency firepower combat standby order given at dawn of February 18," the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in an English-language report
The missile was launched at the international airport in Pyongyang in the afternoon, with a unit of the Missile General Bureau mobilized, it added.
It flew 989 kilometers for 4,015 seconds at an apogee of 5,768.5 km and landed in the international waters of the East Sea, according to the KCNA.
This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Feb. 19, 2023, shows the North's firing of a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile at a lofted angle the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Feb. 19, 2023, shows the North's firing of a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile at a lofted angle the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
It marked the North's first ICBM launch since it fired a Hwasong-17 ICBM in November last year.
The North cited "military threats" of the United States and South Korea, which are "getting serious to the extent that can not be overlooked," and it ordered all military units in charge of missile operations to thoroughly maintain a combat readiness posture, the KCNA said.

The North's latest missile launch, its second missile provocation this year, came after it warned Friday the country will take "unprecedentedly persistent and strong" counteractions if Seoul and Washington press ahead with their planned combined military exercises.
The allies are scheduled to conduct a tabletop exercise at the Pentagon this week against the North's potential use of nuclear weapons. They also plan to hold the regular springtime Freedom Shield (FS) exercise next month, alongside concurrent large-scale field drills.

In a separate statement, Kim Yo-jong, a sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, also said that the North will carry out a "very powerful and overwhelming" response to any hostile acts against Pyongyang.
"(The U.S.) should stop all the actions posing threats to the security of our state and refuse to tarnish the DPRK's dignity, always thinking twice for its own future security," she said in the English-language statement. DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

She also reaffirmed that the North has "no intention to stand face to face" with the South.
Observers here raise the possibility of the regime test-firing a solid-fuel ICBM in addition to an attempt to put a spy satellite into orbit.

Meanwhile, the top diplomats of South Korea, the United States and Japan had an emergency meeting in Munich on Saturday (local time) on the sidelines of an international security conference.
They condemned the North's latest provocation and vowed their close cooperation in dealing with Pyongyang's threats.
"North Korea will face more powerful sanctions by the international community. We urge the North to immediately stop its provocations and return to denuclearization talks," South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin said.
This file photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Feb. 9, 2023, shows the North showcasing Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missiles during a military parade held at Kim Il Sung Square the previous day to mark the 75th founding anniversary of its armed forces. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

This file photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Feb. 9, 2023, shows the North showcasing Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missiles during a military parade held at Kim Il Sung Square the previous day to mark the 75th founding anniversary of its armed forces. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
en.yna.co.kr

(LEAD) N. Korea says it fired Hwasong-15 ICBM at lofted angle | Yonhap News Agency

(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with details, meeting of S. Korea, U.S., Japanese top diplomats;...
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Blinken Warns China Against Providing Aid To Russia, Says Balloon Surveillance Must "Never Again Occur" As Beijing Slams "Excessive Use Of Force", Offers "No Apology"​

BY TYLER DURDEN
ZERO HEDGE
SUNDAY, FEB 19, 2023 - 02:00 PM

In the aftermath of the recent Hullaballon fiasco, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned China’s top diplomat on Saturday that the U.S. will not tolerate violations of its airspace after a Chinese spy balloon flew over North America, but received no apologies from Beijing.

According to Politico, Blinken met with Wang Yi, director of China’s Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in what was the administration’s first face-to-face meeting with the Chinese government since a balloon was discovered earlier this month and subsequently downed by the U.S. military off the coast of South Carolina.

According to a State Department readout of the meeting, Blinken “directly spoke to the unacceptable violation of U.S. sovereignty and international law” by the Chinese surveillance balloon “underscoring that this irresponsible act must never again occur.” Blinken later told NBC’s Chuck Todd in an interview after the meeting that Wang offered “no apology” for the incident.

Separately, Blinken also warned Beijing about “implications and consequences if China provides material support to Russia or assistance with systemic sanctions evasion,” as Moscow wages war against Ukraine. In the same NBC interview, Blinken said that he is "very concerned that China is considering providing lethal support to Russia in its aggression against Ukraine and I made clear that that would have serious consequences in our relationship."

Blinken told Yi that the US had information China was considering whether to give Russia assistance, possibly including guns and weapons, for the war in Ukraine. The US has warned China since the start of the invasion a year ago not to do so.

“The concern that we have now is, based on information we have, that they’re considering providing lethal support,” Blinken told CBS’s “Face the Nation” shortly after he met with Wang. “And we’ve made very clear to them that that could cause a serious problem for us and in our relationship.”

In response, Wang slammed the Biden administration’s destruction of the balloon and urged the U.S. to “change course, acknowledge and repair the damage that its excessive use of force caused to China-U.S. relations,” according to a statement published by Chinese state media. The statement described the controversy as the “so-called airship incident” in an apparent effort to belittle the U.S. reaction that has included a widening bipartisan uproar about what both a House and a Senate resolution have declared was a “brazen violation” of U.S. sovereignty.

Earlier at the conference, Wang said China would release a new peace proposal for Ukraine in the coming days that would be in keeping with previous efforts by President Xi Jinping. He condemned attacks on nuclear power stations.
“We oppose attacks on nuclear power stations, attacks on civilian nuclear facilities,” Wang said. “We have to work to prevent nuclear proliferation and nuclear disasters.”

The initial response was cautious. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock welcomed China’s idea but said “a just peace cannot mean that the aggressor gets rewarded.” As a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, “China is obliged to use its influence for global peace,” Baerbock said. A Russian troop withdrawal from Ukraine is a condition of any peace deal, she said. Amusingly, the geometrically challenged foreign minister also said that "If Putin decides that tomorrow he changes his course by 360 degrees, the whole world will be happy."

German Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock: "If Putin decides that tomorrow he changes his course by 360 degrees, the whole world will be happy." pic.twitter.com/KUXZv7GOH8
— skadefron (@skadefron) February 18, 2023
Click to expand...

Asked about Wang’s peace proposal, a US official who spoke to Bloomberg on condition of anonymity said that Beijing appears to be trying to publicly promote peace and stability while covertly supporting Russia’s aggression against its neighbor.

Despite several attempts by the media to describe recent developments as an easing of geopolitical tensions, the readouts suggest that neither side is ready to take steps to move beyond the spy balloon incident in order to steer bilateral ties toward a less-rancorous setting.

At the conference, Wang publicly slammed the U.S. response to the balloon - which Beijing insists was a weather monitoring device - as a “weak” and “near-hysterical” reaction; he also accused the U.S. of warmongering.
The meeting itself came with risks for President Joe Biden, who is trying to balance his administration’s desire to maintain “open lines of communication” with Beijing amid a widening bipartisan uproar about the Chinese balloon. Already, tense relations have been souring since its appearance. Blinken postponed an originally planned Feb. 5-6 trip to Beijing in response to the incursion.

It wasn’t clear until the final hours whether the Munich meeting between Blinken and Wang would happen. U.S. and Chinese officials had spent the last few days trying to broker the meeting, Politico reported citing three people familiar with those efforts. Beijing’s condition that the U.S. formally request the meeting had slowed progress in the talks.

“It’s a two-way discussion to land a meeting,” the diplomat said, adding that the Biden administration wouldn’t “bend the knee” to get the meeting. Beijing’s readout described the encounter as an “informal contact” that occurred “at the request of the U.S. side.”

Another Washington, D.C.-based diplomat with knowledge of the talks said Blinken had requested a meeting but “had no response from China” as he boarded his flight for Munich on Thursday.

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Is Biden A 'Manchurian President,' Facilitating Nuclear Cooperation between Iran's Mullahs and Russia?​

by Majid Rafizadeh
The Gatestone Institute
February 18, 2023 at 5:00 am
  • The US Congress urgently needs to pass legislation introduced by the Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) that will "prohibit the Biden administration from waiving Congressional sanctions that prohibit cooperation on Iran's nuclear program."
  • It is stunning that the Biden Administration is offering Iran's mullahs sanction waivers for their nuclear program while the Iranian regime is openly getting closer to obtaining nuclear weapons.
  • "There is absolutely no reason to continue issuing these waivers, which allow Iran and Russia to cooperate on building up Iran's nuclear program. These waivers were nevertheless renewed in August, because the Biden administration remains obsessed with reentering a nuclear deal with the Iranian regime. Now the administration says it is committed to countering cooperation between Iran and Russia. They should embrace this legislation." — Senator Ted Cruz, February 3, 2023.
  • Secretary of State Antony Blinken previously made it clear to US lawmakers that the Biden Administration will not stand in the way of Russia cashing in on the $10 billion contract, as well as Russia-Iran nuclear cooperation.
  • Biden has already been called "the Manchurian President." After seeing the Biden Administration's capitulations to America's enemies over the past two years, it is important to ask: Has the Biden family effectively been paid to hand over America to Russia, China and Iran?
2694.jpg
It is stunning that the Biden Administration is offering Iran's mullahs sanction waivers for their nuclear program while the Iranian regime is openly getting closer to obtaining nuclear weapons. (Image source: iStock)

Not only is the Biden Administration disregarding the escalating Iranian-Russian military and nuclear cooperation, the Administration actually seems to be facilitating these two tyrannies' becoming more empowered and emboldened.
Recently, the Biden Administration renewed a series of waivers of sanctions that will allow Iranian and Russian leaders to cooperate more closely with each other to advance the Iran's nuclear program at various enrichment sites. According to the Washington Free Beacon:
"Secretary of State Antony Blinken authorized the waivers on Jan. 31, but Congress was not notified of the decision until late on Feb. 3, after the Free Beacon began making inquiries about the exemptions. Senior congressional sources said the Biden administration is trying to sweep the sanctions waivers under the rug amid renewed concerns about Iran and Russia's military alliance."
Click to expand...
The US Congress urgently needs to pass legislation introduced by the Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) that will "prohibit the Biden administration from waiving Congressional sanctions that prohibit cooperation on Iran's nuclear program."
"These waivers were originally issued pursuant to the catastrophic Obama-Biden nuclear deal with Iran, formally named the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The Biden administration issued these waivers in February and renewed them in August."
Click to expand...
The legislation is co-sponsored by Senators Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn), Mike Braun (R-Ind), Bill Cassidy (R-La), Tom Cotton (R-Ark), Kevin Cramer (R-ND), Steve Daines (R-Mont), Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn), John Hoeven (R-ND), Marco Rubio (R-Fla) and Rick Scott (R-Fla).

It is stunning that the Biden Administration is offering Iran's mullahs sanction waivers for their nuclear program while the Iranian regime is openly getting closer to obtaining nuclear weapons. As Cruz pointed out:
"There is absolutely no reason to continue issuing these waivers, which allow Iran and Russia to cooperate on building up Iran's nuclear program. These waivers were nevertheless renewed in August, because the Biden administration remains obsessed with reentering a nuclear deal with the Iranian regime. Now the administration says it is committed to countering cooperation between Iran and Russia. They should embrace this legislation."
Click to expand...
Additionally, the Biden Administration has continued to send a message to Russia and the Islamist mullahs of Iran that the US is still in favor of reviving the nuclear deal in which Russia, Iran's staunch ally, plays the dominant role. Biden's nuclear deal will reportedly allow Moscow to cash in on a $10 billion contract to expand Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
Blinken previously made it clear to US lawmakers that the Biden Administration will not stand in the way of Russia cashing in on the $10 billion contract, as well as Russia-Iran nuclear cooperation. State Department spokesman Ned Price had previously reiterated the Biden administration's stance, saying:
"We, of course, would not sanction Russian participation in nuclear projects that are part of resuming full implementation of the JCPOA".
Click to expand...
Worse, the Biden administration's nuclear deal has been trusting Russia to conduct the negotiations on behalf of the US; to be the sole country to oversee compliance with the nuclear deal, and to keep Iran's highly enriched uranium -- able to return it to Iran at the mullahs' request.

As Gabriel Noronha, who served as Special Advisor for Iran in the U.S. State Department from 2019-2020 pointed out, the Biden administration "cannot honestly claim to be supporting Ukraine if they are going to keep giving a green light to support the Russian-Iranian alliance at the very same time."
"Renewing these waivers would provide Rosatom, Russia's state-owned nuclear company, a get-out-of-sanctions pass to build two new nuclear reactors in Iran—a contract worth $10 billion—while they have been helping take over Ukraine's two largest nuclear power plants. If Biden is serious about moving on from the failed [nuclear deal] and actually pushing back against Iran's terror plots and nuclear extortion, the administration needs to act like it and put real pressure on Iran for once. The same goes for punishing Russia."
Click to expand...
Biden has already been called "the Manchurian President" (here, here, and here). After seeing the Biden Administration's capitulations to America's enemies over the past two years (for instance here, here , here and here), it is important to ask: Has the Biden family effectively been paid (here, here and here) to hand over America to Russia, China and Iran?
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
Click to expand...
  • Follow Majid Rafizadeh on Twitter
www.gatestoneinstitute.org

Is Biden A 'Manchurian President,' Facilitating Nuclear Cooperation between Iran's Mullahs and Russia?

The US Congress urgently needs to pass legislation introduced by the Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) that will "prohibit the Biden administration from waiving Congressional sanctions that prohibit cooperation on Iran's nuclear program." It is stunning that
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Fears, questions about N. Korea's growing nuclear arsenal
By KIM TONG-HYUNG and HYUNG-JIN KIM​

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea’s latest missile launches are a demonstration of the country’s avowed ability to use nuclear force against South Korea and the mainland U.S. How immediate is that threat?

North Korea claims its nuclear forces area capable of destroying its rivals, and often follows each of its provocative weapons tests with launch details. But many foreign experts call the North’s claim propaganda and suggest that the country is not yet capable of hitting the United States or its allies with a nuclear weapon.

There’s no question that North Korea has nuclear bombs, and that is has missiles that place the U.S. mainland, South Korea and Japan within striking distance. What’s not yet clear is whether the country has mastered the tricky engineering required to join the bombs and the missiles.

__

ICBMs

North Korea has demonstrated that it has missiles that could fly far enough to reach deep into the continental U.S., but it’s not clear whether they can survive re-entering the earth’s atmosphere on arrival.

North Korea said it had launched a Hwasong-15 inter-continental ballistic missile on Saturday to verify the weapon’s reliability and combat readiness of the country’s nuclear forces. It’s one of three kinds of ICBMs the country has developed, along with the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-17. All three are all liquid-fueled, and North Korea has portrayed them all as nuclear-capable.

Launched almost straight up to avoid the territories of neighbors, the weapon reached a maximum altitude of about 5,770 kilometers (3,585 miles) and flew 990 kilometers (615 miles), according to North Korea’s state media. The reported flight details suggest the missile could travel 13,000 kilometers (8,080 miles) or beyond if launched on a normal trajectory.

“These days, North Korea has been disclosing details about its launches in a very detailed manner to try to let others believe what they’ve done is genuine,” analyst Shin Jong-woo at South Korea’s Defense and Security Forum said. “But I think that’s part of their propaganda.”

There are questions on whether North Korea has acquired the technology to shield warheads from the high-temperature, high-stress environment of atmospheric re-entry.

A South Korean biennial defense document released last week said that it’s not clear whether the missiles can survive re-entry, because all of North Korea’s ICBM tests have so far been made on high angles.

Lee Choon Geun, an honorary research fellow at South Korea’s Science and Technology Policy Institute, said a normal trajectory would cause greater stress, as a warhead would spend a longer time passing through altitudes of high air density.

North Korea’s state media said the launch was made “suddenly” at a surprise order from Kim Jong-Un.

“The Kim regime’s claims of short-notice launches are thus intended to demonstrate not only the development of strategic and tactical nuclear forces but also the operational capability to use them,” Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said.

In a military parade earlier this month, North Korea showcased around a dozen ICBMs, an unprecedented number that suggested progress in its efforts to mass-produce powerful weapons.

Among them were huge canister-sealed missiles that experts say were likely a version of a solid-fuel ICBM North Korea has been trying to develop in recent years. Solid-fueled allows missiles to be mobile on the ground and makes them faster to launch.

__

WARHEADS

North Korea likely has dozens of nuclear warheads. The question is whether they are small enough to fit on a missile.

North Korea has so far performed six underground nuclear test explosions to manufacture warheads that it can place on missiles. Outside estimates on the number of North Korean nuclear warheads vary widely, ranging from 20-60 to up to about 115.

In a 2021 interview with 38 North, a North Korea-focused website, renowned nuclear physicist Siegfried Hecker, who has visited North Korea’s main Yongbyon nuclear complex numerous times, said that “20 to 60 is possible, with the most likely number being 45.”

Some experts argue that North Korea has likely already built miniaturized nuclear warheads to be mounted on missiles citing the number of years the country has spent on its nuclear and missile programs. But others say North Korea is still years away from producing such warheads.

“After its sixth nuclear test, people accepted that North Korea really will have nuclear weapons. But they are still debating whether it has warhead miniaturization technology,” Shin, the analyst, said.

The North described its sixth nuclear test, in 2017, as a detonation of a thermonuclear bomb built for ICBMs. It created a tremor that measured 6.3 on the Richter scale, and some studies put its estimated explosive yield at about 50 to 140 kilotons of TNT. In comparison, the pair of atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II — which killed a total of more than 210,000 people — yielded explosions equivalent to about 15 and 20 kilotons of TNT, respectively.

The biennial South Korean defense document said that North Korea is estimated to have 70 kilograms (154 pounds) of weapons-grade plutonium. Some observers say that’s enough for about 9-18 bombs. The document estimated that North Korea has “a considerable amount of” highly enriched uranium as well.

North Korea’s Yongbyon complex has facilities to produce both plutonium and highly enriched uranium, the two main ingredients to build nuclear weapons.

Plutonium plants are generally large and generate a lot of heat, making it easier to detect. But a uranium enrichment plant is more compact and can be easily hidden from satellite cameras. North Korea is believed to be running at least one additional covert uranium enrichment facility, in addition to one at its Yongbyon complex.

__

SHORT-RANGE WEAPONS

Following the collapse of diplomacy with then-U.S. President Donald Trump in 2019, Kim sped up the development of short-range solid-fuel, nuclear-capable missiles targeting key targets in South Korea, including U.S. military bases there.

The so-called “tactical” nuclear weapons include what North Korea calls “super-large” 600-millimeter multiple rocket launchers that it tested Monday. South Korea describes the weapon as a short-range missile system.

North Korea’s state media said its new artillery system can carry nuclear warheads, saying that four rockets would be enough to wipe out an enemy airfield. The statement drew quick outside doubts about whether weapons are indeed nuclear-capable.

“The North Korean claim doesn’t make sense to some extent ... Why do they need four tactical nuclear weapons to destroy just one airfield?” Shin, the analyst, said. “Also, which country would disclose such attack scenarios via state media?”

Other new North Korean short-range systems include missiles that were apparently modeled after the Russian Iskander mobile ballistic system or outwardly resemble the U.S. MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System. Launched from land vehicles, these missiles are designed to be maneuverable and fly at low altitudes, theoretically giving them a better chance of defeating South Korean and U.S. missile defense systems.

Whether North Korea has an ability to arm short-range missiles with nuclear warheads has been independently confirmed.

While North Korea may be able to place simple nuclear warheads on some of its older missiles, including Scuds or Rodong missiles, it would likely require further technology advancements and nuclear tests to build smaller and more advanced warheads that can be installed on its newer tactical systems, said Lee, the expert.

North Korea also has an intermediate-range, nuclear-capable Hwasong-12 missile capable of reaching Guam, a major U.S. military hub in the Pacific. It has been developing a family of mid-range, solid-fuel Pukguksong missiles, which are designed to be fired from submarines or land vehicles.
apnews.com

Fears, questions about N. Korea's growing nuclear arsenal

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea's latest missile launches are a demonstration of the country's avowed ability to use nuclear force against South Korea and the mainland U.S. How immediate is that threat?
apnews.com apnews.com
 
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Excerpt from

SitRep 2/20 - Terminal Approach​

"We wait on the eve of stupendeous events ...or not."​


Simplicius The Thinker
11 hr ago



Well, folks. Things are heating up like the barrel of this Russian 12.7mm after an intense firefight on the front.

simplicius76.substack.com

SitRep 2/20 - Terminal Approach

"We wait on the eve of stupendeous events ...or not."
simplicius76.substack.com simplicius76.substack.com
A few last points about how things may unfold soon. Firstly, there’s been rumor that Zelensky is ready to “pull” Bakhmut completely, but was saving it for the sake of Biden’s visit, as he didn’t want to spoil the optics of the visit’s grand overtures by having a deflating ‘mass retreat’ from Bakhmut crowding the headlines. Bakhmut is in dire straits and Wagner continues advancing and enclosing it from the north. So now rumor says Zelensky will order full withdrawal by the end of the week. And this tolls with several other sources we’ve had from the Russian side which forecasted a fall of the city in a week’s time (though Prighozin himself demurred with the projection that it could take well into March to capture).

Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President will order the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Bakhmut at the end of this week, Bankovaya does not want an information defeat before Biden's speech.
Click to expand...
One analyst saw it this way:

Ramsay: "From the point of view of the strategic situation at the front, now is the perfect time to launch a large-scale offensive. Almost all the tactical reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are involved in the defense of Adeyevka, Maryinka, Ugledar, Artemivsk and Kupyansk. Strategic reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are at the stage of forming and receiving new equipment, and the equipment itself is in the process of being delivered from Europe. Ammunition is also significantly limited in the delivery process and at the front. Preemptively striking and forcing the enemy to fight during the deployment phase is a serious advantage that will confuse all his plans for the spring offensive. But for the success of such an offensive, it is necessary to create a tactical (at the point of impact) superiority of three to four times, as well as the creation of overwhelming superiority in artillery and armored vehicles. In this case, you can count on success and then develop it to the scale of operational.
Click to expand...
This is in line with our thinking from last time; that there is a window opening now for Russia to strike and seize major initiative as all of Europe scrambles to outfit the final hurrah brigades of the AFU, which won’t be ready until late March or April at the earliest. For the first time, Russia could strike with a true numerical advantage and put the AFU completely on the operational backfoot. And this is why we do believe a large offensive is imminent.

However, there are some detractors. Shoigu met today with CSTO’s (Collective Security Treaty Organization) new chief amid persistent rumors in the ‘doomer field’, that President Xi of China is secretly orchestrating a plan to involve CSTO joint forces as peacekeepers in a newly signed armistice between Ukraine-Russia.

Several sources claim that a plan is being prepared for the CSTO to participate in monitoring the demarcation line for the disengagement of Russian and Ukrainian troops. The involvement of the CSTO is allegedly part of President Xi's plan.
Click to expand...
It would seem unlikely, as even the framework for military cooperation of this sort is a long way off for the CSTO, nor is China even a part of the coalition. But China has motioned the intent to present a new ‘framework’ of theirs soon, by which to end the conflict with a ‘political’ (rather than military) settlement.



Thus, one could buy into the speculation of increasing forces militating towards a ‘peaceful’ resolution of the conflict. So the big question remains: will Putin push the gas pedal, or disappointingly kowtow to rising global ‘pressures’ for compromise? And if the former, then will the gas entail merely the ‘satisfactory’ liberation of the entire Donbass, or is he prepared to go ‘all the way’ to the end?

The address itself is now less than 9 hours away, Moscow time of 12pm noon.

One last message:

Russia is most likely preparing a major offensive on February 24 in a number of areas, Vitaly Barabash, head of the Avdiivka military-civil Administration, said on the telethon.: "According to intelligence data, the Russians are moving additional forces to the Donetsk direction (Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Ugledar, Marinka). A couple of weeks ago, about 160 battalions were concentrated – now it is already 190. Even with incomplete equipment – this is a lot of people. We understand that, most likely, they are preparing for something. On February 24, they will probably attack, " Barabash said.
Click to expand...
I leave you with this suggestive post reportedly put up by a Russian channel linked to the Airforce.

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch...86b0-501d-4666-ba6d-b229d7102022_442x679.jpeg
It reads: “Tomorrow will be tomorrow.”
 
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China foreign minister says war in Ukraine "spiralling out of control​

European Pravda — Tuesday, 21 February 2023, 08:50



China is "deeply worried" about the conflict in Ukraine "spiralling out of control".


Source: Qin Gang, Chinese Foreign Minister, while delivering a keynote address at the opening of a security conference, CNN reports


Quote: "China is deeply worried about the continuous escalation of the conflict and possibility of the situation spiralling out of control," Qin Gang said at the Lanting Forum held by the Chinese Foreign Ministry in Beijing.

"We urge relevant countries to immediately stop fueling the fire, blaming China, and hyping up the rhetoric 'today Ukraine, tomorrow Taiwan'," the minister said.

Details: Qin's statement came amid a visit to Moscow by senior diplomat Wang Yi and statements by US officials that Beijing is considering providing lethal military aid to the Kremlin.

On Monday, Wang said China is willing to work with other countries to achieve a ceasefire and lasting peace in Ukraine.

Beijing has repeatedly refused to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and has refrained from calling it a "war" – instead using the Kremlin's description of a "special military operation." China has consistently laid blame on NATO and the United States for the conflict.

We have launched English Twitter! Follow us!
Click to expand...

Background: The US ambassador to the United Nations said in Brussels that China would cross a "red line" if the country decided to provide lethal military aid to Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
www.pravda.com.ua

China foreign minister says war in Ukraine “spiralling out of control”

China is “deeply worried” about the conflict in Ukraine “spiralling out of control”.
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Kim Jong Un's sister threatens to turn Pacific into 'firing range'​


Snejana Farberov​




Kim Jong Un’s sister warned the US that unless it stops conducting military exercises with its allies in the region, North Korea will turn the Pacific Ocean into its “firing range.”
Kim Yo Jong issued the stark threat Monday as North Korea launched two more ballistic missiles off its east coast – just two days after firing a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the sea off Japan’s west coast.
The ICBM test prompted the US to hold joint air exercises with South Korea and separately with Japan on Sunday.
“The frequency of using the Pacific as our firing range depends upon the US forces’ action character,” the North Korean leader’s sister said in a statement carried by the state news outlet KCNA. “We are well aware of the movement of US forces’ strategic strike means recently getting brisk around the Korean Peninsula.”
This image made from video broadcasted by North Korea's KRT shows what it says is a ballistic missile being launched from an undisclosed location in North Korea, Monday, Feb. 20, 2023. On Monday, North Korea fired two ballistic missiles off its east coast.AP
She didn’t elaborate but was likely referring to the US flyover of B-1B long-range, supersonic bombers during Sunday’s trainings with South Korea and Japan.
North Korea typically responds to US B-1B flights, which can carry a huge payload of conventional weapons, with aggressive statements or military demonstrations of its own.
Kim Yo Jong also criticized some South Korean experts who questioned the reliability of North Korea’s ICBMs, calling them “disgusting” and “stupid.”

The launch — the country’s first since Jan. 1 — took place “at the most appropriate time” considering weather conditions and after US and South Korean scout planes went away, she said.
“They had better rack their brains to take measures to defend themselves, instead of doubting or worrying about other’s technology,” Kim Yo Jong said. “We affirm once again that there is no change in our will to make the worst maniacs escalating the tensions pay the price for their action.”
A Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is launched at Pyongyang International Airport, in Pyongyang, North Korea February 18, 2023 North Korea launched a Hwasong-15 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Saturday, prompting the US to hold drills with South Korea and Japan. via REUTERS

Analysts said the warning about the Pacific being a North Korean firing range from leader Kim’s sister could signal plans to fire more missiles farther, possibly in the direction of the US territory of Guam.
The US and South Korea are set to hold simulated nuclear tabletop exercises aimed at improving operations of US nuclear assets this week, as well as annual springtime Freedom Shield field training in March.
North Korea’s foreign ministry warned last week it would respond to the drills with “unprecedentedly persistent, strong counteractions.”

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he had requested an emergency UN Security Council meeting over the ICBM tests.
South Korea’s military condemned the launches as a “grave provocation” that should stop immediately. President Yoon Suk-yeol’s office said it held a National Security Council meeting to review the tests and discuss countermeasures.
South Korea’s foreign ministry said its nuclear envoy had phone calls with his US and Japanese counterparts during which they agreed that North Korea’s provocations cannot be justified and it would face “consequences of self-indulgence.”

Kim Yo Jong (right), pictured with her brother Kim Jong Un (left), called South Korean experts who questioned the reliability of North Korea’s ICBMs “disgusting.”Getty Images
The US Indo-Pacific Command highlighted the “destabilizing impact” of North Korea’s unlawful weapons programs. It added that the US commitments to the defense of South Korea and Japan “remain ironclad,” while UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric urged Pyongyang to halt such provocations banned under Security Council resolutions, and resume denuclearization dialog.

Monday’s missile launch is the North’s third known weapons test this year after it fired more than 70 missiles last year, the most ever, including ICBMs capable of striking anywhere in the US.
The North said the tests involved the new 600-millimeter multiple rocket launcher system, which could be armed with “tactical” nuclear weapons for battlefield use. South Korean defense officials describe the weapons system as a short-range ballistic missile.

The official Korean Central News Agency said the tests simulated strikes on targets up to 245 miles away.
According to Japanese and South Korean assessments, the North Korean missiles flew at a maximum altitude of 30 to 60 miles and a distance of 210 to 250 miles.
nypost.com

Kim Jong Un’s sister threatens to turn Pacific into ‘firing range’

Kim Yo Jong, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s sister, made the “firing range” comment in response to US military’s drills in the region.
nypost.com nypost.com
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Ishaan Tharoor
@ishaantharoor

The Chinese embassy in Washington just emailed journalists a five-chapter pamphlet on "US Hegemony and Its Perils"
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1628153307578474502
View: https://twitter.com/ishaantharoor/status/1628153307578474502?s=20


Pretty thin gruel, culminating with this doctrinaire conclusion that rings quite hollow coming from a regime that is entertaining the invasion of Taiwan, has "bullied" Hong Kong's democrats into submission and turned Xinjiang into a dystopian experiment in surveillance & control.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1628156538647969792
View: https://twitter.com/ishaantharoor/status/1628156538647969792?s=20

American misdeeds from the past, including the hideous legacy of supporting Cold War-era anti-democratic coups, are abominable. But don't think Beijing is scoring the points it thinks it is by calling them out now. You can read the full thing here: https://mailchi.mp/d5e8cc277c9f/0
 
jward

jward

passin' thru

US secretly amassing killer drone swarms to repel China​


Gabriel Honrada​





The US is moving to accelerate the development of autonomous drone swam technologies, which have proven effective in the ongoing Ukraine war and in simulations showing their decisive effect in a Taiwan contingency scenario.
This month, The Debrief reported that the US Department of Defense (DOD) had launched the low-profile “Autonomous Multi-Domain Adaptive Swarms-of-Swarms” (AMASS) project to develop autonomous drone swarms that can be launched from sea, air and land to overwhelm enemy air defenses.
The report says that AMASS aims to develop the capability to launch and command thousands of autonomous drones, working together to destroy an enemy’s defenses including air defenses, artillery pieces, missile launchers and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms.

The Debrief notes that while details of the project are highly classified, pre-solicitation documents show that autonomous drone swarms are likely to focus on deterring or defeating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
“The DARPA AMASS program is exploring the use of swarms-of-swarms to conduct military operations in highly contested environments” with “low-cost swarms with diverse sensors and kinetic and non-kinetic effectors would primarily be pre-positioned forward and launched remotely, providing rapid response and adaptability to overcome the adversary’s time-distance-mass advantage,” said a DARPA spokesperson quoted by The Debrief.
The report notes that US$78 million has been allocated for the AMASS program, with the award expected to go to a single private contractor.

In May 2022, Asia Times reported on the potential decisive effects of drone swarms during a Taiwan Strait crisis. Simulations done by the RAND Corporation think tank in 2020 showed that drone swarms linked by a laser “mesh” data-sharing network were decisive in ensuring a US victory in defending Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.
The US drone swarms formed a decoy screen for manned aircraft such as the F-22 and F-35, extending the latter’s sensor ranges through data-sharing and enabling them to maintain electronic silence upon approaching their targets.

The drone swarms also drastically increased the situational awareness and target acquisition capabilities of manned platforms while flooding enemy radar scopes with multiple targets, forcing the latter to expend limited missiles and ammunition and reveal their positions for manned platforms and loitering munitions to move in for the kill.
Machine learning and AI also allow drone swarms to look at targets from multiple angles, cross-check various targeting data streams and suggest the best way to attack.
Recent experience from the ongoing Ukraine war has shown the potential effectiveness of drone swarms in large-scale conventional wars. In a January article for the Royal United Services Institute, Uzi Rubin notes that Iran’s Shahed 131/136 has been a game-changing precision weapon that has severely threatened Western air defense systems deployed to Ukraine.

Iran’s Shahed-136 drone has been reconfigured by Russia into a more efficient weapon. Image: Iranian Ministry of Defense

Rubin notes that the Shahed’s simplicity, uncanny accuracy, low cost and long range make it unique among strategic standoff weapons. In practice, he mentions that the Shahed is operated in swarms and shows pinpoint accuracy in destroying stationary tanks, command vehicles and large installations.
Shahed’s trump card, Rubin notes, is that it is very low cost compared to cruise and ballistic missiles, meaning it can be mass-produced cheaply and deployed massively to overwhelm enemy air defenses.
It should be noted, however, that the 2020 Rand simulation resulted in a Pyrrhic victory for US and allied forces vis-à-vis China. Previous simulations resulted in the same Pyrrhic scenario, with drone swarms unlikely to prevent such an outcome.
Asia Times reported this January that the US might likely repel a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but both sides will incur massive losses. In addition, a report released by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank about a simulated Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2026 shows that defending Taiwan resulted in massive losses for the US, Japan, Taiwan and China.

In the scenario, the US and Japan lost 449 combat aircraft and 43 ships, including two aircraft carriers, and the US lost 6,960 personnel, with 3,200 killed in action. Taiwan also sustained staggering losses in the simulation, losing half of its air force, 22 ships and 3,500 ground troops with a third killed in action.
The simulation’s figures were likewise bleak for China with a loss of 138 ships, 155 combat aircraft and 52,000 ground troops, with 7,000 casualties and a third of that number killed in action, 15,000 soldiers lost at sea with half that number assumed dead and 30,000 prisoners of war from landing force survivors in Taiwan.
Fast-evolving countermeasures against drone swarms may limit their effectiveness in future conflicts. For example, in an August 2022 article in Small Wars Journal, Ryan Bridley and Scott Pastor mention several methods to counter drone swarms including traditional machine guns and missiles, microwave weapons, laser weapons, signal jamming, underground concealment of critical facilities and deploying defensive drone swarms.

However, Bridley and Scott note that these proposed counter-swarm measures have various drawbacks. They note that machine guns have a very limited range and arcs of fire, and their accuracy degrades in bad visibility conditions.
Counter-swarm measures on the drawing table. Image: Facebook
At the same time, missiles are ineffective against very low-flying drones. They also mention that the high cost of directed energy weapons takes them out of developing countries’ reach while adverse weather conditions can affect the effectiveness of lasers. Drones can also be built with reflective coatings to mitigate laser heat damage.
Bridley and Scott say that while signal jamming can be effective against low-quality drones, they can still be programmed with inertial navigation technology if signal jamming is detected and that high-end drones have various anti-jamming features.

They also note that while concealing sensitive targets underground covers and shields them from drone swarm attacks, underground concealment is costly and time-consuming. Lastly, they mention that defensive drone swarms are at risk of friendly fire from other drones and require support from other defensive systems to be effective.

US secretly amassing killer drone swarms to repel China
 
O

OldArcher

Has No Life - Lives on TB
jward said:
hmm.

Yonhap News Agency
@YonhapNews
3m

U.S. deserves an A for effort to denuclearize N. Korea but needs to make first concession: U.S. experts
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1628096175147749376
View: https://twitter.com/YonhapNews/status/1628096175147749376?s=20
Click to expand...
..
No, the US deserves an F- for its efforts, vis-a-vis North Korean nuclear expansion. Next time they, the NORKS, launch nuclear capable design over Japan, the little, fat, commie grease ball needs to get a Rod From God down his collar. His sister, too. The constant threatening of nuclear war could well go from theoretical, to actual. We should have done the same, threat reduction, to every leader since Stalin.

Of course, this may now be part of God’s plan to punish the once Christian nation of the United States. In not following God, in constant disobedience, America has forfeited and lost God’s hedge of protection. So, God may allow the NORKs to be His rod of iron to chastise and punish us. Shucks, we’ve earned it.

Pray, as if there were no tomorrow. If the US were to sincerely turn back to God, repent of its evil ways, the Lord may relent, and restore us to Him. Personally, I don’t think Americans as a whole, are smart enough to repent to God for our sins. At the very least, ALL Americans should seek His face, and seek His Salvation...

OA
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
OldArcher said:
..
No, the US deserves an F- for its efforts, vis-a-vis North Korean nuclear expansion. Next time they, the NORKS, launch nuclear capable design over Japan, the little, fat, commie grease ball needs to get a Rod From God down his collar. His sister, too. The constant threatening of nuclear war could well go from theoretical, to actual. We should have done the same, threat reduction, to every leader since Stalin.

Of course, this may now be part of God’s plan to punish the once Christian nation of the United States. In not following God, in constant disobedience, America has forfeited and lost God’s hedge of protection. So, God may allow the NORKs to be His rod of iron to chastise and punish us. Shucks, we’ve earned it.

Pray, as if there were no tomorrow. If the US were to sincerely turn back to God, repent of its evil ways, the Lord may relent, and restore us to Him. Personally, I don’t think Americans as a whole, are smart enough to repent to God for our sins. At the very least, ALL Americans should seek His face, and seek His Salvation...

OA
Click to expand...
We can only hope there are some "Thor" system satellites in place....
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Hey preaching to the choir.
I fast at minimum one day weekly, and am in prayer, literally, morning noon and night.

I'm not much for seeking to evade consequences or responsibility. The world's boogeyman at this time and place is signing our collective names to the check. Part of that karma is mine. Still, I can't help but sometimes hope I am blessed beyond measure, and have a bit o' time yet to find what reasons are left to smile, spoil sweet boy, listen to the starshine and taste the silver of it's shine. But the grown up resolute and responsible part of me is pulling for a global reset and praying the next ieteration of "human" can do better than we did with our blessings.
..Such a low bar we've set, I can't help but be optimistic on that score.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Open Nuclear Network
@OpenNuclear
#ONNanalysis


1. On Febaruary 18, the DPRK reported it launched a Hwasong-15 ICBM from Pyongyang. It is the country’s 6th apparently successful ICBM launch and possibly the third launch of the Hwasong-15.
1677068482426.png

2. The launch was said to have been organized under a “combat standby instruction given at dawn” and a written order from Kim Jong Un given at 8:00AM. According to Japan, the missile took off at 5:21PM. A photo released by MoD shows the missile's debris re-entering atmosphere.

3. Refuting claims that it took ~9 hours for the DPRK to launch the ICBM, Kim Yo Jong stated on 20 Feb that the order was to launch the missile “at a favorable and appropriate moment in the afternoon.”
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1627732708716646409
View: https://twitter.com/OpenNuclear/status/1627732708716646409?s=20


4. The flight altitudes of the Hwasong-15s launched on 18 Feb 2023 & Mar 2022 were significantly higher than that of the one launched in Nov 2017. Factors contributing to the higher altitude may have included payload weight reduction and/or design and manufacturing optimization.

5. E.g., 4 boxes, presumably housing retro rockets, are not visible in the latest images of the 2nd stage of the Hwasong-15. A smoother body would contribute to drag reduction during flight. Similar modifications may have also been applied to the Hwasong-15 launched in Mar 2022.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1627732716291497985
View: https://twitter.com/OpenNuclear/status/1627732716291497985?s=20


6.The launch came a day after the DPRK warned it would take "unprecedentedly persistent and strong" counteractions against the combined ROK-US military exercises. However, the exercises could also be a pretext for the DPRK to continue to advance its ICBMs. http://bit.ly/3SdxTwW
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1627732719743512576
View: https://twitter.com/OpenNuclear/status/1627732719743512576?s=20


7. A day after, on 19 Feb, US & ROK staged combined air drills involving bombers and fighter jets. The DPRK responded on 20 Feb by firing two 600mm multiple rocket launcher rockets and threatening to attack airbases in the ROK. http://bit.ly/3XEPuz6 http://bit.ly/3EkytmM
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1627732723174412310
View: https://twitter.com/OpenNuclear/status/1627732723174412310?s=20
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Jeongmin Kim
@jeongminnkim
7m

And here we go again today:
South Korea's JCS official reiterates that Seoul thinks while North Korean ICBM is capable of flying, likely not capable of warhead reentry and that such technology will need to be "verified" cc @nktpnd@ArmsControlWonk
 
H

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
jward said:
Jeongmin Kim
@jeongminnkim
7m

And here we go again today:
South Korea's JCS official reiterates that Seoul thinks while North Korean ICBM is capable of flying, likely not capable of warhead reentry and that such technology will need to be "verified" cc @nktpnd@ArmsControlWonk
Click to expand...

In reading that statement from the RoK official I immediately got a bad feeling....If we're lucky, only "Point Nemo" will suffer the immediate physical consequences.....
 
jward

jward

passin' thru
Housecarl said:
In reading that statement from the RoK official I immediately got a bad feeling....If we're lucky, only "Point Nemo" will suffer the immediate physical consequences.....
Click to expand...
:: passes ya my best home blend o' calmin tea ::
..when u feel bad, so do I- normally- Now, though, I'm focused on the apparent sincere <3 tweenst lil kimi n his daughter.
I don't think his calculus will conclude it is (yet) time to do more than splash about in service to her and his countries best interest.
World is changing fast though.
 
jward

jward

passin' thru

U.S. diplomatic counter-offensive targets China’s ‘false information’​


By Erin Banco and Phelim Kine 02/22/2023 06:44 PM EST Link Copied​

Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Russia-China ties had reached “new frontiers” and announced that Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping is expected to visit Russia later this year. | Alexei Druzhinin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo

The Biden administration isn’t just calling China out in public. It has embarked on an extensive private pressure campaign to rally allies to its side and make it clear to Chinese officials that the U.S. has proof of their nefarious actions.
Over the past few weeks, the U.S. has sent detailed talking points to allies, held more than a dozen meetings with Chinese officials and — most recently — shared new intelligence with both to up pressure on Beijing, according to interviews with three officials and a diplomatic cable obtained by POLITICO.
While early conversations focused mostly on the spy balloon that transited the U.S. in early February, more recent warnings have turned to the possibility of China supplying weapons to Russia to use against Ukraine — a defiant violation of what the Biden administration has called a “red line” in its relationship with Beijing.

The new details about Washington’s messaging strategy, including the extent to which the administration is pushing back on Beijing behind the scenes through diplomatic outreach to allies and partners, illuminates the lengths to which Washington feels it needs to go to counter China.
Those efforts also underscore the Biden administration’s resolve to hold Beijing accountable for the incident and to use it as an exemplar of the long international reach of China’s malign activities, even as China tries to woo Europe and other regional blocs.

The Biden administration has reacted strongly “because it’s so clearly a case where the Chinese should just have admitted that they took an action that they should not have taken,” said Zack Cooper, former assistant to the deputy national security adviser for combating terrorism at the National Security Council.
“And rather than just owning up to what was pretty obvious for all to see, [Beijing] launched into a whole propaganda campaign that was pretty frustrating for the administration, especially given that they were heading into what would have been [Secretary of State Antony] Blinken’s first trip to Beijing.”
The National Security Council declined to comment on the record for this story.
China has continued to push back against the U.S. allegations, deflecting questions about its surveillance activities and the extent to which it is planning on supporting Russia in Ukraine. Now, the two countries are engaged in an intense public standoff, and neither side is indicating that it’s ready to back down anytime soon.
It started with the spy balloon. On Feb. 5 — the day after the U.S. shot down the Chinese surveillance balloon off the coast of South Carolina — the Biden administration sent out an “action request” to U.S. diplomatic posts across the globe telling them to push the message that China “is attempting to change the narrative by providing false information.”

The cable included 28 concise talking points for U.S. representatives from Brussels to Grenada and Frankfurt to Busan to share with foreign government officials “in private diplomatic engagements.” The U.S. had several key demands for Beijing, according to the cable, including that the airship “cease operations” and “immediately” leave U.S. airspace.
The State Department pushed its diplomats to move fast. Beijing was mobilizing state media to accuse the U.S. of overreacting in its decision to destroy the balloon in a bid to paint the Chinese government as “the responsible actor in the dispute.” Diplomats were directed to emphasize that the U.S. “is not looking to escalate the situation.”
“We thought it was the responsible thing to do on our part to share as much as we could. Our presentations have been fact-based. This is not an effort to engage in a messaging exercise or to put spin on the ball,” said a State Department official who was granted anonymity because the individual was not authorized to speak on the record.
The U.S. was just as persistent with China. Officials from the top tiers of the Biden administration down to the embassy level of the State Department have engaged with their counterparts in China in more than a dozen meetings since the balloon was first detected in late January, according to two of the U.S. officials. The officials, and others, were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic discussions.

There’s been little to show for that outreach, however. Beijing rejected an offer to get on the phone with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Feb. 4, the day the balloon was shot down. It wasn’t until several days later that the Chinese embassy called to lay out the country’s official response, one it had already given publicly: The balloon had merely been dispatched to monitor the weather, one of the U.S. officials said.
Then, when Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Beijing’s top diplomat Wang Yi on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference this weekend, both had sharp words for their counterparts. And Blinken didn’t limit himself to the balloon. He also directly warned the Chinese about taking the step to send weapons to Russia to aid its Ukraine war effort — a prospect the U.S. is increasingly worried about.

“I was able to share with [Wang], as President Biden had shared with President Xi, the serious consequences that would have for our relationship,” Blinken said in an interview with CBS’s Face the Nation.
Beijing has responded with provocations of its own.
“It’s the U.S. side, not the Chinese side, that’s providing an endless flow of weapons,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told reporters Monday. “The U.S. side isn’t qualified to point fingers at China or order China around.”
U.S. officials say they’re trying to force Beijing to back down, in part, by detailing the intelligence they have against them.
Over the last several weeks, administration officials have downgraded the classification level on certain intelligence regarding the balloon and China’s plans regarding support for Russia in order to share that information with their Chinese counterparts, two of the officials said.

The officials said that though the U.S. has long been concerned about China and Russia’s alliance, new details about their economic and military partnership have emerged in recent days, putting the administration on edge.
The U.S. has also briefed allies about that intelligence and is requesting diplomats across the world push back against both Beijing’s false narrative about the balloon and its consideration of sending lethal weapons to Russia, two of the officials said.
If messages coming from Europe this week are any indication, the outreach to allies, at least, is creating a united front.
On Monday, the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said it would be a “red line” for the European Union if China sends arms to Russia. Top diplomats from Sweden and Lithuania voiced similar sentiments. And NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg followed suit on Tuesday.

China’s Wang Yi, meanwhile, arrived in Russia Wednesday where he met with President Vladimir Putin and the head of Russia’s National Security Council. Putin declared that Russia-China ties had reached “new frontiers” and announced that Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping is expected to visit Russia later this year.
www.politico.com

U.S. diplomatic counter-offensive targets China’s ‘false information’

The Biden administration is aggressively calling out Beijing’s surveillance program and warning of serious consequences if it aids Russia’s war on Ukraine.
www.politico.com www.politico.com
 
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