spinnerholic
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Both of the most recent global flu pandemics were caused by human flu viruses that picked up some bird flu components - in 1957 and 1968.
Please note that the world didn't end in either pandemic!
Fair use claimed for educational purposes. http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/08/opinion/08sat2.html?hp
October 8, 2005
Bird Flu and the 1918 Pandemic
There are both frightening and promising implications in this week's announcement that research teams have deciphered the genetic sequence of the devastating 1918 influenza virus and have synthesized the lethal germ in a high-security laboratory. The feat is a scientific tour de force that should provide important insights on the best way to respond to the avian influenza strain now circulating in Asia. The worrisome news is that the 1918 virus appears to have jumped directly from birds to humans, and that the genetic changes that allowed it to do so are already beginning to appear in the avian strain, known as H5N1, which has killed large numbers of birds and about 60 people in four Asian countries.
The two most recent global pandemics, in 1957 and 1968, were caused by human flu viruses that picked up some bird flu components. Now it turns out that the far more lethal 1918 virus, which killed perhaps 20 to 100 million people, was most likely an avian strain that jumped directly into humans. That gives today's avian strain two routes to wreak havoc among humans. It could either mix some of its genes with human influenza, like the 1957 and 1968 viruses, or it could mutate on its own to become easily transmissible among humans, like the 1918 virus.
So far, the avian virus has rarely jumped from birds to humans and seldom spread from one human to another. But it may be traveling slowly down the same evolutionary path as the 1918 virus. Two top federal health officials said that the H5N1 virus has already acquired five of the 10 genetic sequence changes associated with human-to-human transmission of the 1918 virus.
That does not necessarily mean that catastrophe is imminent. Nobody knows how likely it is that further mutations will occur or how long the process may take. The avian virus has been around for decades without turning into a monster.
The new findings offer promising leads to health officials who are concerned about preparing for a possible pandemic. Scientists should be able to prepare a checklist of the most worrisome genetic changes so they can monitor the evolution of the avian flu virus and rush medical help to any area where it looks as if the virus is becoming more transmissible. They may also be able to develop drugs and vaccines aimed at the most important genetic targets, thus allowing them to treat or even prevent influenza more effectively.
Nobody knows whether the avian strain now under the spotlight will become a big threat to humans. But some day a potential pandemic strain will arrive. The new findings could help develop tools to contain it.
*************************
Much of the MSM is doing what it does best - fear mongering. It's way too soon to panic! What we should be doing is asking lots of questions of our government - at every level. For instance, wouldn't it make a lot more sense to start organizing the medical community rather than demanding Congress give Bush authority to call out the military? Medics are good are fighting disease and saving lives. The military is trained to take lives. If we have a bad flu pandemic hit a part or parts of this country, I can't see how having the military called out and ready to kill off more people is going to help anything.
The way to fight exposure to deadly flu for most of us is not to be around people who are sick - STAY HOME. Requiring people to stay home for the amount of time the waves of infection take to run their course is a very intelligent way of limiting the illness and body count. That means our Great Leaders ought to be working out plans (that WORK) to get food and water and baby supplies as well as ordinary medical supplies to people who are in their homes! FEMA and/or Homeland Security are not able to move ice, much less handle something like a deadly flu pandemic. Close schools and movies and stores and everything else - keep people off the streets and at home. We need people to keep the electricity and water and sewer and such going but we also have gear those folks can wear that will stop them from catching the flu bug. Keep the phones and the internet going. Make deliveries of food and such to homes, every week or two. Establish a way for people who do get sick to summon the needed medical help. Yes, shutting down tight for 6 weeks to 6 months will trash the profit margins of many businesses but that won't permanently impact the economy nearly as badly as millions of deaths and bodies rotting in the streets - again.
We have now and have had for decades the technology to allow medical specialists to go into the heart of epidemics of Ebola and Marburg and other such terrible diseases (which started out with death rates of over 90%) to fight them and bring them to a stop. If we can use that knowledge and expertise in far flung villages in tiny countries, why the devil aren't plans being made to do the same here. It will be on a much larger scale of course, but hey! Aren't we the "CAN DO" country?
Please note that the world didn't end in either pandemic!
Fair use claimed for educational purposes. http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/08/opinion/08sat2.html?hp
October 8, 2005
Bird Flu and the 1918 Pandemic
There are both frightening and promising implications in this week's announcement that research teams have deciphered the genetic sequence of the devastating 1918 influenza virus and have synthesized the lethal germ in a high-security laboratory. The feat is a scientific tour de force that should provide important insights on the best way to respond to the avian influenza strain now circulating in Asia. The worrisome news is that the 1918 virus appears to have jumped directly from birds to humans, and that the genetic changes that allowed it to do so are already beginning to appear in the avian strain, known as H5N1, which has killed large numbers of birds and about 60 people in four Asian countries.
The two most recent global pandemics, in 1957 and 1968, were caused by human flu viruses that picked up some bird flu components. Now it turns out that the far more lethal 1918 virus, which killed perhaps 20 to 100 million people, was most likely an avian strain that jumped directly into humans. That gives today's avian strain two routes to wreak havoc among humans. It could either mix some of its genes with human influenza, like the 1957 and 1968 viruses, or it could mutate on its own to become easily transmissible among humans, like the 1918 virus.
So far, the avian virus has rarely jumped from birds to humans and seldom spread from one human to another. But it may be traveling slowly down the same evolutionary path as the 1918 virus. Two top federal health officials said that the H5N1 virus has already acquired five of the 10 genetic sequence changes associated with human-to-human transmission of the 1918 virus.
That does not necessarily mean that catastrophe is imminent. Nobody knows how likely it is that further mutations will occur or how long the process may take. The avian virus has been around for decades without turning into a monster.
The new findings offer promising leads to health officials who are concerned about preparing for a possible pandemic. Scientists should be able to prepare a checklist of the most worrisome genetic changes so they can monitor the evolution of the avian flu virus and rush medical help to any area where it looks as if the virus is becoming more transmissible. They may also be able to develop drugs and vaccines aimed at the most important genetic targets, thus allowing them to treat or even prevent influenza more effectively.
Nobody knows whether the avian strain now under the spotlight will become a big threat to humans. But some day a potential pandemic strain will arrive. The new findings could help develop tools to contain it.
*************************
Much of the MSM is doing what it does best - fear mongering. It's way too soon to panic! What we should be doing is asking lots of questions of our government - at every level. For instance, wouldn't it make a lot more sense to start organizing the medical community rather than demanding Congress give Bush authority to call out the military? Medics are good are fighting disease and saving lives. The military is trained to take lives. If we have a bad flu pandemic hit a part or parts of this country, I can't see how having the military called out and ready to kill off more people is going to help anything.
The way to fight exposure to deadly flu for most of us is not to be around people who are sick - STAY HOME. Requiring people to stay home for the amount of time the waves of infection take to run their course is a very intelligent way of limiting the illness and body count. That means our Great Leaders ought to be working out plans (that WORK) to get food and water and baby supplies as well as ordinary medical supplies to people who are in their homes! FEMA and/or Homeland Security are not able to move ice, much less handle something like a deadly flu pandemic. Close schools and movies and stores and everything else - keep people off the streets and at home. We need people to keep the electricity and water and sewer and such going but we also have gear those folks can wear that will stop them from catching the flu bug. Keep the phones and the internet going. Make deliveries of food and such to homes, every week or two. Establish a way for people who do get sick to summon the needed medical help. Yes, shutting down tight for 6 weeks to 6 months will trash the profit margins of many businesses but that won't permanently impact the economy nearly as badly as millions of deaths and bodies rotting in the streets - again.
We have now and have had for decades the technology to allow medical specialists to go into the heart of epidemics of Ebola and Marburg and other such terrible diseases (which started out with death rates of over 90%) to fight them and bring them to a stop. If we can use that knowledge and expertise in far flung villages in tiny countries, why the devil aren't plans being made to do the same here. It will be on a much larger scale of course, but hey! Aren't we the "CAN DO" country?
.
... I am hoping that having had the Hong Kong flu and the Asian flu maybe I have a little extra immunity for the bird flu ... One can always hope! Other wise with my record for getting colds I'm in trouble! 
