Celestial Space Weather/Sun Spot

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
So at the closing of the year 2016 we had 32 spotless days.

Under the Rudolf Wolf sun spot count we have so many spotless days and I'm trying to get an acturate count from someone thats keeping track, but it may be somewhere near 100 or more days without sun spots as it does not count the micro spots as a sun spot.


Pires Corbyn of Weatheraction.com says we have officly entered a mine ice-age and not 2035 or 2020 but 2016 and into the future for who knows how long.

solarham.com often has year end stats.
 

fi103r

Veteran Member
So at the closing of the year 2016 we had 32 spotless days.

Under the Rudolf Wolf sun spot count we have so many spotless days and I'm trying to get an acturate count from someone thats keeping track, but it may be somewhere near 100 or more days without sun spots as it does not count the micro spots as a sun spot.


Pires Corbyn of Weatheraction.com says we have officly entered a mine ice-age and not 2035 or 2020 but 2016 and into the future for who knows how long.

for a realistic count on sunspots,
go to www.landscheidt.info, click on laymans sunspot count, that uses the old way of counting sun spots, not the uber telescope approach that counts specs as sunspots.
 
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FarmerJohn

Has No Life - Lives on TB
With such a quiet solar year, we should see associated colder climate effects her on Earth. But we're not. Instead, we're seeing cold in some areas, significant warming in others. Instead, the observed climate for 2016 seems headed for yet another record warm year, with arctic and high-latitude warming more than compensating for moderate cooling in some other areas.

The recent solar cycle 24 had a sunspot maximum noticeably lower than recent normal sunspot cycles; about as low as the Dalton Minimum of the late 19th/early 20th century, although not as low as seen in the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715.

We have about six years to go before we get to see if the maximum of cycle 25 is as low or lower than the last one.
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
With such a quiet solar year, we should see associated colder climate effects her on Earth. But we're not. Instead, we're seeing cold in some areas, significant warming in others. Instead, the observed climate for 2016 seems headed for yet another record warm year, with arctic and high-latitude warming more than compensating for moderate cooling in some other areas.

The recent solar cycle 24 had a sunspot maximum noticeably lower than recent normal sunspot cycles; about as low as the Dalton Minimum of the late 19th/early 20th century, although not as low as seen in the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715.

We have about six years to go before we get to see if the maximum of cycle 25 is as low or lower than the last one.

Go watch episode 3 of Obit on Netflix as to WHY this is happening. Its ALL related to the monster quakes that have been happening since 2004, the earth's axis has shifted and because the earth's axis has shifted so has both the arctic and antarctic circles. THAT causes the over all climate to change NOT cow farts and driving SUV's.

That said we really ought not treat the earth like a litter box.
 

FarmerJohn

Has No Life - Lives on TB
If the Earth's axis had shifted, every astronomer on earth, professional and amateur, would have noticed.

I looked for Obit on Netflix; did you mean Orbit? I haven't watched yet, but will.
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
OK; a Little Update.

For the year 2016 acording to Space Weather website a total of 32 days without sun spots.
As you well know its now the year 2017 and the 23 of March and already had 27 days without sun spots. Now as I see this it could turn out to be a much cooler summer this year.
I have to inquire as I do not know what the count is under a older system where they do not count the micro sized sun spots.

Again the link to Space Weather. LINK: http://www.spaceweather.com
 
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Vicki

Girls With Guns Member
Thank you for the heads up. Gardening is already behind for me as the weather hasn't been condusive for the greenhouse yet. I hope you're wrong obviously. ;)
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
Ok; a little update and space weather website is is saying we now have a total of 56 days without sun spots compared to 2016 with 32 days with no spots.
We have exseeded the 2010 spotless days count of 51. 2009 total was 260 spotless days.
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
Ok; The latest on this is we have gone another two days without sun spots and seems to be going for three days in a row. Total number of spotless days for 2017 is 58 day and may offically be 59.
 
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Publius

TB Fanatic
Update We have gone a 7 day stretch without sun spots. How much longer we will have to see, it will have an effect on how cold a winter we get.
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Update We have gone a 7 day stretch without sun spots. How much longer we will have to see, it will have an effect on how cold a winter we get.


It's going to be COLD, and from the looks of things snowy as well! We've had a ton of rain this past week, here in central Iowa, which is unusual for Iowa during the month of October. This means we're in for a cold snowy winter, and my allergies are celebrating!
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
Well one micro sun spot has shown up breaking the string of spotless days and now up to 63 days without sun spots for the year.
 
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packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center.
UPDATED 2017 Oct 17 1230 UTC

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels the next three
days (17-19 Oct).

[Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity]

www.solarham.net
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
Its cazy as they now see a new sun spot in the making and so we have 68 spotless days to the count for the year.

This makes a total of 12 spotless days for the later half of the year before we head into winter.
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
Today we have gone one day with out a sun spot bringing the number up to 69.
Copying a bit of a article from Space Weather website!

Solar Minimum Returns: Today the sunspot number zero as the sun resumes its transition to Solar Minmum. Images from NASA's Dynamics Oservatory show no dar cores on the face of the Sun:
This delvelopment continues a years-long trend of decreasing sunspot numbers with a notable interuption in September 2017, which brought a suprising outburst of large sunspots and intense solar flares. The disappearance of sunspots singnals a weaking of the sun's magnetic field and a change in the character of space weather. During Solar Minimum, space weather is dominated by solar wind streams and cosmic rays, not sunspots and solar flares. BOUNS: Solar Minimum auroras are gorgeus.

Link to Space Weather website, LINK: http://www.spaceweather.com
 

AlaskaSue

North to the Future
Thanks for the update. Well, 2017 has the highest number of spotless days since the last minimum in 2009. At work that year my group watched space weather every day for a running tally, it was a pretty good minimum. And we had a "non-summer" this year...it got green but was cold and wet a great deal. So far though, autumn has been very mild (though also pretty wet), with only one insignificant snowfall so far, and only a couple days with frost on the ground. I wouldn't mind a warmer winter ~~~~ ;)
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
We have now gone 168 hours or a full 7 days without sunspot's and offishly into the eighth day. This now brings the total up to 76 days.
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
So we now have a 12 day streach without sunspots. Now keep in mind that in the begainning of the year we racked up 56 days without sunspots then it went a while with a small number of sunspots.
Starting in October we started seeing spotless days again then it would break with a small micro sized sunspot or two and so on, so we are going into winter racking up spotless days and the total for this later half of the year is 24 and counting as of now with a total for the year of 80 spotless days.

This winter may turn out to be one of the coldest we've seen in a very long time, but when we will start seeing it, we will just have to wait and see.
 
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Publius

TB Fanatic
It went 13 days and now one little sunspot and this brings the yearly total up to 81 days. Below is a little from the website.


NEW SUNSPOT: A new sunspot is emerging over the suns eastern limb, interrupting a string of 13 spotless days. Guilherme Grassmann photographed the new region from his backyard observatory in Brazil: (Photo) "Using a 120mm refractor and a daystar solar filter, I was able to see multiple dark cores in this sunspot group," says Grassmann.
The sunspot has been numbered AR2687. Although it has broken a long string of spotless days, AR2687 probably won't alter the current state of low solar flare activity. The sunspot has a stable magnetic field that poses little threat for explosions.
 
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Publius

TB Fanatic
I'm trying to keep track of this as it happens and we just racked up two more spotless days and now up to 83 spotless days for the year 2017.
See how long a string it goos this time.
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
Just racked up another 6 days bringing the total of spotless days up to 87.
Just like before its just one sunspot and not four or six of them.
 

LilRose8

Veteran Member
I have come to this thread too late and there are too many posts to read...why is it important that there are so many spotless days? Just want to get up to speed.
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
I have come to this thread too late and there are too many posts to read...why is it important that there are so many spotless days? Just want to get up to speed.



Has to do with Solar Minima and this time around its a Grand Solar Minima and when the sun is doing this it's in a cooling down stage, even just having one or two sun spots perday its cooling off.
So the longer the sun go's spotless the more it cools down and the cooler the temperatures we have here on earth.
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Has to do with Solar Minima and this time around its a Grand Solar Minima and when the sun is doing this it's in a cooling down stage, even just having one or two sun spots perday its cooling off.
So the longer the sun go's spotless the more it cools down and the cooler the temperatures we have here on earth.

and the atmosphere is already experiencing compression events due to the lack of solar activity. It is theorized that it was a compression event that ripped the atmosphere open that lead to the instantaneous deaths of the wooly mammoths who were found to have perfectly preserved buttercups in their stomachs and mouths thousands of years later.
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
and the atmosphere is already experiencing compression events due to the lack of solar activity. It is theorized that it was a compression event that ripped the atmosphere open that lead to the instantaneous deaths of the wooly mammoths who were found to have perfectly preserved buttercups in their stomachs and mouths thousands of years later.



There is a like more to this like the atmosphere is more at risk at two sides where its pushed and pulled thin from this action and yes temperatures can drop rapidly in a matter of minutes.
Can you imagine at 3:30AM in the morning the temps drop to Minus -100F below zero and your home heating system cannot keep up with it.
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
Ok; It went added 5 more days before we got a single sunspot, bringing the total up to 92 spotless days.
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
Today we have one very small micro sized sunspot almost imposable to see without specialized modern equipment.
The current total for 2017 is now 94 spotless days.
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
Today we have one very small micro sized sunspot almost imposable to see without specialized modern equipment.
The current total for 2017 is now 94 spotless days.

The longer this goes, the more concerned I become. I had horrible nightmares last night about drought conditions that rivaled the dust bowl. :(
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
The longer this goes, the more concerned I become. I had horrible nightmares last night about drought conditions that rivaled the dust bowl. :(



This can go into next year and the first part of 2017 we racked up 56 spotless days and starting in October we started with more spotless days adding another 38 days to the years count.
 

Rayku

Sanity is not statistical
There are graphs in multiple locations on the net displaying the cyclic nature of the sun. Sun spots have been used as an analog to solar activity for a long time now, but how many people ask why that is? They also don't ask how it is we know about the effects of the maunder/sporer/dalton minimums and the previous cycles up until the 1950s era.

We know these things through an inverse analog. That analog being cosmic spallation of gases in our atmosphere. Cosmic spallation is the creation of radio isotopes in the atmosphere as gamma/x-ray, neutron particles etc impact those elements. One of the more important of those analogs is beryllium 10. It has a half life of ~1.39 million years and is created by cosmic radiation impacting oxygen and nitrogen atoms at varying intensities. If you wish to look up how this happens, look up the terms photoelectric effect, Compton scattering, and pair production.

Those isotopes end up falling to earth embedding themselves in ice, trees, etc. This effectively creates a record of stronger and weaker periods of solar and interstellar sourced energies that impact the earth's atmosphere.

That gets to the next point. The interstellar wind is not something you hear about normally if ever.
https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/interstellar-wind-changed-direction-over-40-years

It is something that few have twigged to regarding its impact on the earth. The 'consensus' was it never makes it to inside the earth's orbit. That has been proven false. It was also thought that much like our magnetosphere, the solar systems heliosphere prevented the worst of the interstellar wind from entering the system. That also was proven false. The IBEX project discovered there is no bowshock to the heliosphere and likely hasn't been for some time now.

That gets us to the magnetosphere. Our magnetosphere does in fact have a bowshock. If the earth had no bowshock/magnetosphere we'd never been born to worry about it. That said, it's also weakening. One would think it was correlated with the sunspot cycle, but it's not. Cycle 23 peaked at ~260 spots, but the weakening magnetosphere has been in progress since ~1980 and it's speeding up.
https://www.livescience.com/46694-magnetic-field-weakens.html

In fact, it has been in progress for well over a century.
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2003/12/...ut-no-dire-effects-are-foreseen.html?referer=

Starting in 1980 or so that weakening speed up. In the last 25 years it's come close to weakening as much as it had in the previous 140 years or so.
This is important as there are several sites springing up that focus almost exclusively on sun spots in their predictions of the so called 'grand solar minimum' and a new mini ice age.

Now for another piece of the puzzle. Our atmosphere does in fact expand and contract in time with solar cycles. However that has nothing to do with sunspots directly. Remember sunspots are an analog not the cause directly for solar cycles. The atmosphere does what it does due simply to the first and second laws of thermodynamics. Heat it up it expands, cool it down it contracts. You can experience that yourself with a simple volume test of a gas or liquid at varying temperatures. It is the core principle behind how a mercury thermometer works. This from thermal input primarily, and has little to no correlation to the ionizating radiation and the isotopes it creates.

Now yet another piece of the puzzle.
The interplanetary magnetic field.
https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/16dec_giantbreach

The crowd that supports the electric universe hypothesis seizes on the fact that the IMF delivers current to the earth's poles. It makes me wish Faraday was still around to explain the concept of induction.
Moving along, the IMF is responsible for delivering most of the ionizing particulates and plasma from the sun to the earth and other planets. Unlike the thermal and ionizing output, there is no evidence the IMF has weakened along with solar cycles or that it ever has. If the sun were a battery delivering current from the ether as they propose, it would not be selective choosing to power one thing and not another.

All that said, we are set up for a perfect storm, but not for the reasons so often quoted by the pseudo science crowd. That storm requires the continuation of current trends which by no means is assured.

The 'potential' is a rapid change in the earth's weather, magnetosphere, and magnetic poles. The likely change will be towards cooler weather in some places, yet hotter in others. We already see much of that, but we will also likely be seeing changes in the quality and quantity of light impacting the earth as its albedo is altered by these conditions. No time in written history covers this potential given all the varying elements at play. Anyone stating they know definitively what's coming is not basing the statement in fact. The only thing I'm relatively sure of is the probability of us liking what's coming is near zero and that it's coming soon.

Going back to my room at holiday Inn express. Make what you will of this.
 
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Publius

TB Fanatic
There are graphs in multiple locations on the net displaying the cyclic nature of the sun. Sun spots have been used as an analog to solar activity for a long time now, but how many people ask why that is? They also don't ask how it is we know about the effects of the maunder/sporer/dalton minimums and the previous cycles up until the 1950s era.

We know these things through an inverse analog. That analog being cosmic spallation of gases in our atmosphere. Cosmic spallation is the creation of radio isotopes in the atmosphere as gamma/x-ray, neutron particles etc impact those elements. One of the more important of those analogs is beryllium 10. It has a half life of ~1.39 million years and is created by cosmic radiation impacting oxygen and nitrogen atoms at varying intensities. If you wish to look up how this happens, look up the terms photoelectric effect, Compton scattering, and pair production.

Those isotopes end up falling to earth embedding themselves in ice, trees, etc. This effectively creates a record of stronger and weaker periods of solar and interstellar sourced energies that impact the earth's atmosphere.

That gets to the next point. The interstellar wind is not something you hear about normally if ever.
https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/interstellar-wind-changed-direction-over-40-years

It is something that few have twigged to regarding its impact on the earth. The 'consensus' was it never makes it to inside the earth's orbit. That has been proven false. It was also thought that much like our magnetosphere, the solar systems heliosphere prevented the worst of the interstellar wind from entering the system. That also was proven false. The IBEX project discovered there is no bowshock to the heliosphere and likely hasn't been for some time now.

That gets us to the magnetosphere. Our magnetosphere does in fact have a bowshock. If the earth had no bowshock/magnetosphere we'd never been born to worry about it. That said, it's also weakening. One would think it was correlated with the sunspot cycle, but it's not. Cycle 23 peaked at ~260 spots, but the weakening magnetosphere has been in progress since ~1980 and it's speeding up.
https://www.livescience.com/46694-magnetic-field-weakens.html

In fact, it has been in progress for well over a century.
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2003/12/...ut-no-dire-effects-are-foreseen.html?referer=

Starting in 1980 or so that weakening speed up. In the last 25 years it's come close to weakening as much as it had in the previous 140 years or so.
This is important as there are several sites springing up that focus almost exclusively on sun spots in their predictions of the so called 'grand solar minimum' and a new mini ice age.

Now for another piece of the puzzle. Our atmosphere does in fact expand and contract in time with solar cycles. However that has nothing to do with sunspots directly. Remember sunspots are an analog not the cause directly for solar cycles. The atmosphere does what it does due simply to the first and second laws of thermodynamics. Heat it up it expands, cool it down it contracts. You can experience that yourself with a simple volume test of a gas or liquid at varying temperatures. It is the core principle behind how a mercury thermometer works. This from thermal input primarily, and has little to no correlation to the ionizating radiation and the isotopes it creates.

Now yet another piece of the puzzle.
The interplanetary magnetic field.
https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/16dec_giantbreach

The crowd that supports the electric universe hypothesis seizes on the fact that the IMF delivers current to the earth's poles. It makes me wish Faraday was still around to explain the concept of induction.
Moving along, the IMF is responsible for delivering most of the ionizing particulates and plasma from the sun to the earth and other planets. Unlike the thermal and ionizing output, there is no evidence the IMF has weakened along with solar cycles or that it ever has. If the sun were a battery delivering current from the ether as they propose, it would not be selective choosing to power one thing and not another.

All that said, we are set up for a perfect storm, but not for the reasons so often quoted by the pseudo science crowd. That storm requires the continuation of current trends which by no means is assured.

The 'potential' is a rapid change in the earth's weather, magnetosphere, and magnetic poles. The likely change will be towards cooler weather in some places, yet hotter in others. We already see much of that, but we will also likely be seeing changes in the quality and quantity of light impacting the earth as its albedo is altered by these conditions. No time in written history covers this potential given all the varying elements at play. Anyone stating they know definitively what's coming is not basing the statement in fact. The only thing I'm relatively sure of is the probability of us liking what's coming is near zero and that it's coming soon.

Going back to my room at holiday Inn express. Make what you will of this.



If you have not heard of this guy1 David A. LaPoint and he has done work on Primer Field Theory and he even has a youTube video on his work.
 

Publius

TB Fanatic
I'm not checking every day, but we have gone two days with out sunspots. That last Micro sunspot should even be counted as a sunspot.
 

Rayku

Sanity is not statistical
If you have not heard of this guy1 David A. LaPoint and he has done work on Primer Field Theory and he even has a youTube video on his work.

I've researched the electric universe idea extensively. That name came up in the research.
From one of his videos;
photon is concentration of energy, made up of many concentrations of energy, which are made of many concentrations of energy
Parse that out a moment. If your answer isn't coming up with bovine excrement your not done parsing. Primer doesn't meet the definition for a theory by a long shot. You have to stretch the definition of hypothesis to make it fit.
Now try to find information on 'David Lapoint', any degrees, associations, etc. Bottom line is, electric universe is demonstrably BS. Here are some of the EU claims;

*Einstein's postulates are wrong.
*General relativity is wrong.
Atomic clocks on gps and other satellites have to account for relativity. The same for probes sent throughout the system. Someone may quibble with finner details of GR, but its effects have been proven empirically.

*The Universe is not expanding.
Red shift (moving away) and blue shift (moving towards) of light from stars to our system along with direct observations from hubble etc have proven that idea false.

*The electric force travels faster than the speed of light with near-infinite velocity.
Speed of electrical charges passing through a medium can in fact be measured.

*Gravity has two poles like a bar magnet; dipole gravity.
That gets into serious woo woo realm with no physical or mathematical proof.

*Planets give birth to comets.
Between NASAs deep impact, ESA rosetta missions, and a myriad of spectrometry observations the composition of comets has been established. They did not, nor could not have come from a planet.

*Stars do not shine because of internal nuclear fusion caused by gravitational collapse. Rather, they are anodes for galactic discharge currents.
Spectrometry of our sun, samples from solar wind, and a host of other evidence says that's BS.

*Impact craters on Venus, Mars and the Moon are not caused by impacts, but by electrical discharges.The same applies to the Valles Marineris (a massive canyon on Mars) and the Grand Canyon on Earth.

Shoemaker levy 9 impact, impacts on mars, the moon, and even here on earth have been directly or video graphically observed. Impact craters here have yielded multiple meteor fragments. This is one of the more egregious lines of BS they try to sell.

I could go on for a month of Sundays on this. Whomever this Lapoint is, tried to build on what Thornhill and Talbott put out for the EU idea.

People are free to make up their own minds, but I do wish they'd at least try to use them first.
 

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
I've researched the electric universe idea extensively. That name came up in the research.
From one of his videos;

Parse that out a moment. If your answer isn't coming up with bovine excrement your not done parsing. Primer doesn't meet the definition for a theory by a long shot. You have to stretch the definition of hypothesis to make it fit.
Now try to find information on 'David Lapoint', any degrees, associations, etc. Bottom line is, electric universe is demonstrably BS. Here are some of the EU claims;

*Einstein's postulates are wrong.
*General relativity is wrong.
Atomic clocks on gps and other satellites have to account for relativity. The same for probes sent throughout the system. Someone may quibble with finner details of GR, but its effects have been proven empirically.

*The Universe is not expanding.
Red shift (moving away) and blue shift (moving towards) of light from stars to our system along with direct observations from hubble etc have proven that idea false.

*The electric force travels faster than the speed of light with near-infinite velocity.
Speed of electrical charges passing through a medium can in fact be measured.

*Gravity has two poles like a bar magnet; dipole gravity.
That gets into serious woo woo realm with no physical or mathematical proof.

*Planets give birth to comets.
Between NASAs deep impact, ESA rosetta missions, and a myriad of spectrometry observations the composition of comets has been established. They did not, nor could not have come from a planet.

*Stars do not shine because of internal nuclear fusion caused by gravitational collapse. Rather, they are anodes for galactic discharge currents.
Spectrometry of our sun, samples from solar wind, and a host of other evidence says that's BS.

*Impact craters on Venus, Mars and the Moon are not caused by impacts, but by electrical discharges.The same applies to the Valles Marineris (a massive canyon on Mars) and the Grand Canyon on Earth.

Shoemaker levy 9 impact, impacts on mars, the moon, and even here on earth have been directly or video graphically observed. Impact craters here have yielded multiple meteor fragments. This is one of the more egregious lines of BS they try to sell.

I could go on for a month of Sundays on this. Whomever this Lapoint is, tried to build on what Thornhill and Talbott put out for the EU idea.

People are free to make up their own minds, but I do wish they'd at least try to use them first.




Shinman Takezo is that you???
 
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