WAR South Korea might be planning preemptive strike on North Korean artillery positions

Hate to start a new thread, but if this assessment is correct, then we are about to enter an international crisis and national emergency.

SK might be planning a preemptive strike on NK artillery positions that threaten Seoul

See - http://www.timebomb2000.com/vb/showthread.php?p=3927072#post3927072

Mods can kill this thread if they deem it unwarranted. Please respond in the main Korea thread. Bump this one if you think this supposition may be accurate and want to keep the warning up.
 
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Double_A

TB Fanatic
The South Korean's have been seen for decades as good guys in this pissing contest and have had the world's sympathy and awe at their patience with the north.

For them to act preemptively seems to me as abandoning the high ground and risking the world's support, when all they need to do is wait.

I can't see this happening and notice you offer no explanation of YOUR reasoning to justify this.
 

maric

Short but deadly
The South Korean's have been seen for decades as good guys in this pissing contest and have had the world's sympathy and awe at their patience with the north.

For them to act preemptively seems to me as abandoning the high ground and risking the world's support, when all they need to do is wait.

I can't see this happening and notice you offer no explanation of YOUR reasoning to justify this.

While I seldom agree with SoT I for one appreciate the fact that a separate thread be started when, not if, when something comes to a boil over there.
 

Catbird

Membership Revoked
While I seldom agree with SoT I for one appreciate the fact that a separate thread be started when, not if, when something comes to a boil over there.

I also think it's a good idea. And if I'm here WHEN andIF something actually happens , I'll do that with lights and sirens and direct folks back to the main thread.
 

Brutus

Membership Revoked
Hmmm.....

I don't think SK would try something like this unless we were onboard as actual participants.

To do much good against the aforementioned artillery positions a strike would just about have to be an AIRstrike because most of that artillery is on the backslopes of the mountains, so I've been told.

Also, that artillery is so numerous that anything less than a really MASSIVE strike would accomplish little. I don't think SK could mount the sort of massive attack that I'm thinking of without us helping or even doing most of it. We've got cruise missiles, B-1's, B-2's, B-52's, etc. that they don't have.

The reason I think it would have to be a truly massive attack is that it would take that to be able to entirely swamp all the artillery that's within range of Seoul. The need to swamp all that arty at once is to keep the NORKs from being able to rip off a few dozen rounds or rockets full of bio or chem weapons at Seoul in the midst of an attack. That wouldn't be the NORKs' ideal scenario, but it would still give them the satisfaction of having killed many thousands of SK's.

We shall see......

:(
 
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China Connection

TB Fanatic
Yep, a little while ago I ran a new thread on what I saw as a major policy change for South Korea. After a time only the die hards keep checking into a thread that is running continuously.


So this is another major change in thinking. Also one can only conclude that North Korea must be thinking USE IT OR LOOSE IT.


Anyway we will see the start of WWIII start before long. Nobody should wish for it. The first thing that will happen is your dollar will hyper-inflate. Currently you are losing your position as the world reserve currency. Now what does this mean to people like me an Australian? It simply means the US goes then we go. Why? Because we can't defend ourselves. We do not have the population or technology to defend ourselves. We do have lots of natural reserves but.





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Taz

Deceased
China Connection
Would you boogy home to Oz or stay in China if this conflict blew up? Just wondering.
 

China Connection

TB Fanatic
A lot ask me this here on Timebomb! I will stay here until I get thrown out. There is nothing back in Australia to go back to. I'd probably end up cooking in a roadhouse or small country hotel or something if I went home. Not something I particularly want to do at my age.
 

Wildweasel

F-4 Phantoms Phorever
The ROKs face a situation in trying to take out the NORK artillery like the Israelis face in hitting Iran's nuclear sites. They have to insure they hit everything the first time because they aren't going to be able to get a second chance at anything they miss.

That said most of the NORK artillery facing Seoul is located in caves or bunkers, making any attack, pre-emptive or a counter-attack, a difficult proposition for getting sure kills in a limitted attack. If the ROK goes after the NORK artillery targetted on Seoul and doesn't take out enough of it, they will have started a real sh*t storm of incoming shells on their capital city.

I don't know if the ROK will be able to bring themselves to use such a massive level of force needed without an ongoing attack on their homeland. I don't know if the generals truly consider the shelling of the island adequate consideration for starting a ground war.

But, just letting word out that the South would even be considering such a move could be the deterrence the South is seeking against the NORKs in this case.

WW
 

China Connection

TB Fanatic



Actually Seoul can't last either way. If the South uses a huge preemptive attack on North Korea artillery sites then the North only has to lob a couple of nukes on Seoul to even the score at the same time it attacks with all it's got.






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Taz

Deceased
Do we have any nukes in SK? As in compliments of the USA? Do we even know where the RNK nukes are located? Could they be taken out with some small nukes ? If a war started what would China's reaction be? Or Japan? Would they get into it also? And whose side would China be on? Seems a unified Korea would be to China's advantage.
 

colonel holman

Veteran Member
PRC sees NK as a buffer insulating them from having a US puppet regime directly on their border. They also fear being locally overwhelmed with refugees. But lately let it slip they may find commerce advantages of a unified Korea. $$ talks these days/

As of 25 yr ago we did have tactical nukes in SK. I dont know if the several demo pres removed them in intervening yrs
 

Archetype

Veteran Member
Bush I withdrew the Korean nukes in the fall of '91. One imagines though that there are a number of Trident RVs with North Korean targets dialed in.
 

USDA

Veteran Member
For years I have been reading reports, usually by Korean sources, some NK dissenters living abroad or deserters. And I spent 13 months close to the DMZ monitoring activity back in 1962.

Even then we knew if the Norks cared to, they would remove the top soil half of south Korea a few feet deep just with artillery...they had it even then. It is the most tunneled country in the world and helped N Vietnam with their highly successful tunnel programs.

Arty is mostly self propelled or rails that run deep into the mountains...doors open up and out they come, fire and scoot back if they feel the need. The blast doors close and they emerge when they feel like it. They have some of the biggest arty and surface to surface missiles in the world.

N Korea is impossibly mountainous...with everything of real value hidden in or under a mountain. Nukes would be a little to middling use. Unlike in the flats where the blast can really unfold itself, in deep valleys the blast is largely contained. They are chemically robust and every battalion has radiation, chemical units. They know how to use their chemical radiation suits...so lingering radiation is not going to to keep them out of action.

How effective our planes, which are built for acquiring targets miles away and firing missiles....against close up dog fights by old but highly maneuverable Migs is something that has yet to happen.

They store food, fuel like everything else, underground. It is only up above that the Western press sees and reports starving peasants. (Maybe that is the reason their army, militias are so big...need to eat, join up!) And they have many fake missile sites and phony tunnels. Any air field, or arty position that can be spotted by satellite is probably a decoy; or a 'come to Papa!' trap.

It is reported that the new uranium enriching planet was a complete surprise when shown to a Western expert..because they built it under the canopy of an old site that was thought to be useless. They are a cagy people.

They manufacture their own arms, so have a big military on a shoe string budget...and no troublesome congress or corporate pimps to deal with. Decisions are swift and final...no debate...no holding up of hands. They exist more as a hive than a diverse social arrangement.

For S Korea to go first and bomb them...they need to be prepared to go all the way, because there will probably be no 'bloody nose,' then calling for another cease fire.

First all American bases will be hit hard, either in Korea, Japan, Okinawa, Guam and god only knows where else. The ROK soldiers used to be very tough, and I assume they still are, but somehow I think their rich Westernized life style has made them soft in ways not apparent 40, 50 years ago.

In short N Korea, military, politics and geography make most of our most advanced and promenate fighting styles and weapons much less effective than they would be in other parts of the world.

In other words, our famous strengths are going to be 'less strong and robust' in a war with N Korea. What would work famously in Europe or in the vast spaces of the middle east...will work to our disadvantage there.

It is interesting, I think, that while Iran and other countries want to get their hands on the Russian SS 300 missile defense system...I haven't heard a word about N Korea seeking them out. Maybe they feel their natural geography and arms in hand will be enough and our missiles less effective than they were in the Gulf Wars?
 
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