SCI Somebody explain away my alarm at reading this:

[ainitfunny]

Page 24 (or 25) of LAWRENCE LIVERMORE LAB Powerpoint presentation saying COMET DEBRIS WILL HIT BROOKFIELD MO on June 18 2010 necessitating an intervention to break up the incoming threat.


I can find no place in the report where this is presented as a "What if" scenario. The only "what if" is the WHAT IF WE HIT IT WITH A BOMB 260 DAYS BEFORE IMPACT. They simply state it as if it is a known event in the scientific community.



Here is the link:
http://www.planetarydefense.info/resources/pdf/dearborn.pdf

here is the quote from the report:
PorthosDebris Ellipsoid
A long period comet in a high inclination orbit that is aimed at the town of Brookfield, Missouri, USA.
It is discovered on 22Feb, 2003, and if un-deflected, it will approach the town from the southeast striking on 18 June, 2010 with a speed of 62 km/s.
Assume detonation of 260 days before impact (Beyond orbit of Mars).
Monte Carlo calculation in which the original body is split into10,000 pieces with an RMS velocity distribution of 20m/s that is randomly oriented.
Energetically consistent with coupling 5% of the energy of a 1 Megaton explosion into a 1 km asteroid.

I am trying to talk myself out of being alarmed by noting that surely if this were true it would not be just an incidental point on one page of a research paper, but the focus of the paper itself, wouldn't it.

 

[UncurledA]

Seriously ? They can calculate where a comet out 7 years is going to hit with an accuracy of about 2 miles ? I want them on my artillery team.

 

[Satanta]

Ummm, well,...you don't live there.

 

[Hansa44]

Somewhere on TB there was a discussion about a comet hitting the SW in the middle of June. I thought it was June 17, but Patrick or someone said there is no way possible to tell where a comet would hit that far in advance.

 

[Echo 5]

OP, how did you find this?

 

[Fred's Horseradish]

They can't even predict the weather. It was supposed to be raining today. It is perfectly clear.

 

[ainitfunny]

I was surfing info about asteroid 1999MN and this link came up in the search results so I thought that since it was Lawrence Livermore Lab, I thought they may know something so I read it and became concerned about what I read on Page 24 (or 25)

Fred's Horseradish said:They can't even predict the weather. It was supposed to be raining today. It is perfectly clear.

Ain't the same people, Fred.

 

[sherbar92]

What was posted in the OP appears to be a Powerpoint presentation of a hypothetical scenario of how to deal with an asteroid or comet threat. It was probably presented at a conference in 2004 where astronomy types discussed how to mitigate asteroid/comet threats using virtual scenarios to spark discussion.

Here is an article about that conference...note that the comet mentioned in the OP, Porthos, is also mentioned in this article as not being a real comet.

See text of article and what was bolded.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4362785/

Scientists simulate
asteroid armageddon

Conference sets up scenarios
to test how we would deal
with cosmic threat to planet



By Leonard David
Senior Space Writer

updated 3:10 p.m. PT, Tues., Feb. 24, 2004


GARDEN GROVE, Calif. - Authorities on defending Earth from a cosmic run-in with an asteroid or comet have gathered here to detail ways to thwart future impacts and deal with the calamity if our planet is struck.
An international group of scientists, engineers, space policy makers, and others are taking on the task of improving our ability to defend the planet from possible impact threats.

Attention is focused on four fictitious Defined Threat, or DEFT, scenarios that endanger the Earth. The approaching virtual asteroids include D’Artagnon, Athos, Aramis and a long-period comet called Porthos. At this time, none of these names is assigned to a real asteroid or comet.

(Sher's note: The asteroid mentioned in the OP's quote was named Porthos.)

The DEFT scenarios — which include various trajectories and time-to-impact assumptions — are meant to spur designs of rendezvous, intercept and deflection missions and spark discussion of how the world community might prepare for mitigation efforts or a possible disaster from the perspectives of policy and public education.

No known comets or asteroids are presently on a collision course with Earth, but scientists say a regionally devastating impact — perhaps within a hundred years, more likely not for a thousand or more — is inevitable. Yet there are no governmental plans to deal with diverting or destroying an asteroid, managing regional evacuations or dealing with the chaos that might ensue from a collision.

"Planetary Defense Conference: Protecting Earth from Asteroids," held here Monday through Thursday, is sponsored by The Aerospace Corporation and the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.

more at link.

 

[maric]

I read somewhere ( can't remember where) that the .gov only needs/intends to give the public 72 hours notice before an impact. So does this surprise me? NOPE.

 

[Patrick28]

I don't even have to read it. It's impossible to determine a point of impact so precisely.

Read again: Impossible.

In case you've missed it: It's impossible.

Not possible.

Can not be done.

Anyone who claims to know the TOWN where a comet will hit is a lunatic or a liar. Period. No gray area here. It's completely entirely unequivocally impossible in any imaginable scenario.

All orbits and trajectories are calculated based on observations. The 'range' of error is in the thousands of kilometers in the best of cases. And usually in the tens of thousands of kilometers. This is especially true of comets.

Size, mass, velocity, trajectory are all estimates. The orbits are calculated based on these estimates of estimates.

We can accurately predict within ranges, so don't take this to think we can't rule out an impact, because we can and do. - But we're talking stellar distances here, not tens of kilometers.

Further, no one person or team can plot out accurate trajectories. It takes dozens upon dozens of independent observations at different times with different instruments. Once it gets that big, it's no longer possible to keep a secret, so we'd all know very quickly.

 

[FarmerJohn]

In a paper from 2004 by David K. Lynch and Glenn E. Peterson, four fictional scenarios were proposed for discussion purposes: Athos, Porthos, Aramis & D'Artagnan: Four Planning Scenarios for Planetary Protection. IIRC these are also the names of the four musketeers.

Porthos is used in this context as a type of threat.

http://pdf.aiaa.org/downloads/2004/CDReadyMPDC04_865/2004_1417.pdf?
CFID=2911995&CFTOKEN=50507686&jsessionid=8c306a77bdc919341243TR

FJ

 

[HeliumAvid]

Thread Locked as Debunked.

Nothing to worry about in hypothetical cases, we have enough real problems thank you very much

HeliumAvid