WAR Saudis admit they have nuclear weapons
- Thread starter alchemike
- Start date
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
WELL, JUST WOW. I DON'T KNOW WHO THIS GUY IS BUT THIS IS A TOTAL REDEFINING OF THE ENTIRE MIDDLE EASTERN SITUATION WITH ONE INTERVIEW. Housecarl, I think you need to get on this!!!
I am going to post it to my blog, and override the post I just did.
I am going to post it to my blog, and override the post I just did.
I think it will embedd if you take the S off the front.
Warm Wisconsin
Easy as 3.141592653589..
According to multiple comments from middle eastern type name the translation is correct. However, they say this guy is a nobody but a alarmist that doesn't work for the government. It is known that SA has a nuke agreement with Pakistan, so I've read they technically have nukes through a treaty. The nuke test thing is different and Housecarl has posted on that today. That said I don't believe they have any type of delivery system even if they had a nuke.
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
THE VIDEO WORKS ON MY BLOG
I embedded this video in my blog post for today. The wordpress url is in my signature. It really is a stunning admission. It will redefine the entire situation in the Middle East.
I embedded this video in my blog post for today. The wordpress url is in my signature. It really is a stunning admission. It will redefine the entire situation in the Middle East.
Shacknasty Shagrat
Has No Life - Lives on TB
You're Welcome.
SS
SS
What was that old line from Vietnam... "We had to destroy this village in order to save it."
Dahham Al-'Anzi of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was discussing why many in the Arab world feel the need for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to be removed from power, and that a ground invasion was not only necessary, but is going to take place!
In the context of the pending invasion, Dahham Al-'Anzi outlined the missiles, planes and other war-fighting equipment the Kingdom has acquired and then revealed "We have a nuclear bomb" and asked the TV Interviewer, "Why do you think we have all these weapons?" He then answered his own question "to protect Arabs and Muslims."
So - the Saudis have gone full Strangelovian.
Dahham Al-'Anzi of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was discussing why many in the Arab world feel the need for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to be removed from power, and that a ground invasion was not only necessary, but is going to take place!
In the context of the pending invasion, Dahham Al-'Anzi outlined the missiles, planes and other war-fighting equipment the Kingdom has acquired and then revealed "We have a nuclear bomb" and asked the TV Interviewer, "Why do you think we have all these weapons?" He then answered his own question "to protect Arabs and Muslims."
So - the Saudis have gone full Strangelovian.
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
I think the mere fact he openly admitted this, no matter how big a "nobody" he is significant. The other thing is he made it as a statement of fact, with no bluster, like North Korea and their famous Lake of Fire ranting. Yep, the Saudi Government is going to have to come out TODAY and deny this in my view. On the other hand, I find the casual nature of this guy to be very credible.
Saudi Arabian money, plus Pakistani nuclear knowledge and expertise, further combined with North Korean missile technology is a very credible scenario. I doubt either Turkey or Israel is inclined to blow this guy off!
Saudi Arabian money, plus Pakistani nuclear knowledge and expertise, further combined with North Korean missile technology is a very credible scenario. I doubt either Turkey or Israel is inclined to blow this guy off!
Meadowlark
Has No Life - Lives on TB
What security specialists have been fearing would happen all along. Thank you Obama for creating such a clusterfruck on you watch. I am sure that you are happy.
I think O is purely ignorant of the various interests and politics in the ME because he cannot understand anything outside of his own limited American point of view.
Is it merely Sunni vs Shia a rift that has been extant for 500 years and should not affect politics today to outsiders............
blueinterceptor
Veteran Member
Admission or warning?
Shacknasty Shagrat
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Most Saudis do not really want to PO the King.
And if he were not authorized, he would not speak, for very long, at least, expecially on this subject.
DD, you correctly observe the 'no bluster'. That is difference between the character of the Turks and that of the Arabs.
The Turks do not talk rashly or with Nork hyperbole, the classical Arab raves endlessly.
So his statement is different.
For the general public, the Saudi nuclear fig leaf is off.
SS
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
I think the key thing for me, Lurkey, aside from the fact he made the statement at all, is if you understand the way the House of Saud is, well let's just say if this guy was just an "off the wall nobody," he would be dealt with. He might be charged with treason, Lurkey, and be summarily executed by having his head cut off. So, clearly he doesn't feel threatened by anybody in power in Saudi Arabia, or he would have kept his mouth shut, and his head on.
The other thing that struck me was the total context of his comments. He was assessing the full military capabilities of the House of Saud specifically against Shia Iran. This means his comments, and especially his open admission the SUNNI HOUSE OF SAUD HAS TWO NUKES AND HAS HAD THEM FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS, must be viewed in the 1300 year long war between Shia and Sunni context. Yep, he pretty much vented that the House of Saud WILL FREAKING NUKE IRAN UNDER CERTAIN CONDITIONS. Well Shacknasty Shagrat if that doesn't get your hormones surging, I suggest you try a bottle of West Virginia's finest moonshine!
This one video, which apparently came out three days ago on the 19th is such a defining moment in Middle Eastern history as to compare with the colonial map drawing after World War One.
Putin, well Putin just got hit in the head with a two by six, assuming he didn't know about it before. It also shatters ALL PREXISTING ISRAELI DEFENSE STRATEGIES IN ONE SWELL SWOOP. Saudi Arabia could always put a conventional cruise missile into that nuke plant, just like North Korea could shell the nuke plant outside of Seoul, but this is different. This gives Saudi Arabia, and no naïve comments about they don't have the delivery technology, sheesh they do. They now have offensive nuclear strike ability to turn Haifa, or Tel Aviv into radioactive rubble. Yep, game changer. Frankly, even if this guy is blowing smoke, the political and diplomatic impact is going to be profound.
The other thing that struck me was the total context of his comments. He was assessing the full military capabilities of the House of Saud specifically against Shia Iran. This means his comments, and especially his open admission the SUNNI HOUSE OF SAUD HAS TWO NUKES AND HAS HAD THEM FOR THE LAST TWO YEARS, must be viewed in the 1300 year long war between Shia and Sunni context. Yep, he pretty much vented that the House of Saud WILL FREAKING NUKE IRAN UNDER CERTAIN CONDITIONS. Well Shacknasty Shagrat if that doesn't get your hormones surging, I suggest you try a bottle of West Virginia's finest moonshine!
This one video, which apparently came out three days ago on the 19th is such a defining moment in Middle Eastern history as to compare with the colonial map drawing after World War One.
Putin, well Putin just got hit in the head with a two by six, assuming he didn't know about it before. It also shatters ALL PREXISTING ISRAELI DEFENSE STRATEGIES IN ONE SWELL SWOOP. Saudi Arabia could always put a conventional cruise missile into that nuke plant, just like North Korea could shell the nuke plant outside of Seoul, but this is different. This gives Saudi Arabia, and no naïve comments about they don't have the delivery technology, sheesh they do. They now have offensive nuclear strike ability to turn Haifa, or Tel Aviv into radioactive rubble. Yep, game changer. Frankly, even if this guy is blowing smoke, the political and diplomatic impact is going to be profound.
Shacknasty Shagrat
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Reseaching Twitter, this story first came out on Feb 15 2016.
http://www.memri.org/clip/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5327.htm
A lot of people follow memri.
Still no response by KSA, no denials and no comment by US, Russia, Turkey.
All the big guys are playing this one very close to their chest and keeping quiet.
The Saudis are reported to have some 2,000 personnel in their strategic missile program.
There have been reports that the Saudis have purchased, 2013 or thereabouts, some CSS 2, Dong Feng ICBMs with a 12,000 km range carrying a multi megaton warhead. Even if these reports are correct, I would think there would need to be a major testing program. One plan would have people go somewhere and test something, and return to KSA prepped to be able to fire the real thing.
All of these purported programs are apparent from spy satellites, so again, the big guys know.
DD, your extended time line is looking more plausible.
Pity that.
SS
http://www.memri.org/clip/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5327.htm
A lot of people follow memri.
Still no response by KSA, no denials and no comment by US, Russia, Turkey.
All the big guys are playing this one very close to their chest and keeping quiet.
The Saudis are reported to have some 2,000 personnel in their strategic missile program.
There have been reports that the Saudis have purchased, 2013 or thereabouts, some CSS 2, Dong Feng ICBMs with a 12,000 km range carrying a multi megaton warhead. Even if these reports are correct, I would think there would need to be a major testing program. One plan would have people go somewhere and test something, and return to KSA prepped to be able to fire the real thing.
All of these purported programs are apparent from spy satellites, so again, the big guys know.
DD, your extended time line is looking more plausible.
Pity that.
SS
Rex Jackson
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Of course they are. because Trump is going after them once he gets in, and they know it.
Weps
Veteran Member
With that knowledge and the video posted by "SuperStation95 FM Radio", which has an MO of taking real news and tying it to questionable or simply false narratives...I think this should be taken with a GIANT grain of salt.
MERDE....I'm out and about at the moment on my phone so just a few thoughts to start with.....
- Announcing that they have "two nukes" is more of an invitation calling down a first strike on their own heads than enough of a number count to be an actual deterrent to such an attack.
- As to delivery systems "in stock", besides the recently acquired DF-21 IRBMs (road mobile by the way), older liquid fueled CSS-3/DF-4(?), they've got a wing each of F-15S/SA (Saudi "export" F-15Es) and Tornado strike fighters. They're also taking delivery of Eurofighters/Typhoons right now and were reported to be talking with the French cruise missiles.
More later....HC
- Announcing that they have "two nukes" is more of an invitation calling down a first strike on their own heads than enough of a number count to be an actual deterrent to such an attack.
- As to delivery systems "in stock", besides the recently acquired DF-21 IRBMs (road mobile by the way), older liquid fueled CSS-3/DF-4(?), they've got a wing each of F-15S/SA (Saudi "export" F-15Es) and Tornado strike fighters. They're also taking delivery of Eurofighters/Typhoons right now and were reported to be talking with the French cruise missiles.
More later....HC
AlfaMan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Well, the man speaking is Saudi-he's wearing an upper class keffyeh (headscarf-the red and white checked pattern is common among middle and upper class Saudis). MEMRI got a good catch on picking this up-the actual interview was around 10 minutes and discussed Saudi .mil capabilities. This guy could be the Saudi equivalent of a well informed TB2K'er.
I have seen this video play from a number of phones today-and there are a lot of nervous .mil types from a certain country playing it. And asking questions about civil defense, expressing worry over family still at "home", etc. A certain country is having a Cuban missile crisis moment over this. Unlike us in 1962; this country may actually pull the trigger.
I have seen this video play from a number of phones today-and there are a lot of nervous .mil types from a certain country playing it. And asking questions about civil defense, expressing worry over family still at "home", etc. A certain country is having a Cuban missile crisis moment over this. Unlike us in 1962; this country may actually pull the trigger.
John Green
Veteran Member
Interesting yes but let's not forget Arabs lie. They lie about everything. It's like a sport for them.
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
I understand the original video, the news interview was done in Arabic, on Arabic media, and then published by MEMRI which specializes in analyzing Arab speaking sources and translating them. This gives it a lot of street credibility in my opinion Second, besides the issue of who said it, and the context in which it was said, there is the why it was now openly admitted. Saudi Arabia isn't afraid of being nuked in my view. I can't think of any country, with the possible exception of Iran or North Korea who would nuke them. The fact they "only" have two nukes, assuming they really do, means they have all they need to, have the delivery systems to get them anywhere in the Middle East they want to. Far from making them a target, they just demonstrated a massive nuclear response ability. It all depends on how big they are, but Pakistan has some pretty good sized nukes I think. Saudi Arabia, using back channels, they can take it to the next level. This interview must also be viewed, Housecarl, IN THE CONTEXT OF ONGOING RUSSIAN THREATS TO NUKE TURKEY. Saudi Arabia just said that if Russia nukes any advancing Turkish forces deploying into Syria, they can nuke the Russian base as well. We got a mutual assured destruction thing going on here. The fact that suddenly everybody is talking about dropping nukes in Syria is NOT A GOOD SIGN IN MY OPINION.
The House of Saud is extremely conservative, moves slowly, with deliberation and would not have allowed this guy to make any such claim if he didn't represent at least some faction, AT THE VERY HIGHEST LEVELS OF THE HOUSE OF SAUD. Like I said, he would be DEAD if he wasn't part of the power structure in Saudi Arabia.
My blog has nearly 1,000 views, from over 30 countries since I emailed he who shall not be named, and it was linked to the web site that can't be talked about. <G> Gees, this is getting complicated Housecarl! And to think less than 72 hours ago all we were worried about was Turkey artillery shelling the Kurds!
Lurkey, I would not be at all surprised to see SPACE ALIENS landing on the White House lawn in the near future.
The House of Saud is extremely conservative, moves slowly, with deliberation and would not have allowed this guy to make any such claim if he didn't represent at least some faction, AT THE VERY HIGHEST LEVELS OF THE HOUSE OF SAUD. Like I said, he would be DEAD if he wasn't part of the power structure in Saudi Arabia.
My blog has nearly 1,000 views, from over 30 countries since I emailed he who shall not be named, and it was linked to the web site that can't be talked about. <G> Gees, this is getting complicated Housecarl! And to think less than 72 hours ago all we were worried about was Turkey artillery shelling the Kurds!
Lurkey, I would not be at all surprised to see SPACE ALIENS landing on the White House lawn in the near future.
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
The problem with the Royal Saudi Air Force or their missile command isn't the technology. The House of Saud has some of the most advanced and sophisticated military technology available on planet Earth. The problem is they have serious manpower issues related to the quality of their military people. On the other hand, you only need ONE OR TWO ELITE pilots out of the Air Force to do this. They can also buy the best technical people in the world any time they want to.
I would not rule out them having two nukes, nor would I rule out them having the delivery systems, plus the competent people to run everything. I doubt Israel is ignoring this interview.
I would not rule out them having two nukes, nor would I rule out them having the delivery systems, plus the competent people to run everything. I doubt Israel is ignoring this interview.
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
So, a CIA official type from the House of Saud admitted several days ago they have at least two nukes. Man, we are so DOOMED! Where is my beer?
Zahra
Veteran Member
Not saying they don't have nukes, but it could also be disinformation intended to sow seeds of doubt and introduce hesitation on the part of their (many) adversaries. Remember before the US invaded Iraq Saddam Hussein himself not only claimed to have WMD but went to great lengths to make it appear to be true.
AlfaMan
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Have you looked at the want ads in Aviation week and space technology magazine lately?
The Saudis use LOTS of foreign .mil contractors for their armed forces-especially the air force.
British in particular work in the army, USAF folks in the Saudi air force, etc.
The Saudis have the equipment, the know how to use it (via contractors) and now it appears to be that they have the will.
Saudi Arabia and Iran mixing it up-with nukes-Sunni versus Shia, the great Muslim hatred. Either Tehran or Riyahd will glow in the dark at some point.
The Saudis use LOTS of foreign .mil contractors for their armed forces-especially the air force.
British in particular work in the army, USAF folks in the Saudi air force, etc.
The Saudis have the equipment, the know how to use it (via contractors) and now it appears to be that they have the will.
Saudi Arabia and Iran mixing it up-with nukes-Sunni versus Shia, the great Muslim hatred. Either Tehran or Riyahd will glow in the dark at some point.
Lurker
14
WHAT!!!!! You mean space aliens aren't already there!!!!????? Doug - ya gotta tell me these things man!
Excuse me while I go set my hair (what's left of it) on fire.
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
Glad to see you, Lurkey. I was beginning to get worried you had retreated to your underground bunker and five year supply of Doritos! Even you have to be getting nervous by this point. Of course, space aliens are here. Just take a look at Hollyweird if you don't believe me!!!!
Yep, there is nothing like Saudi Arabia admitting they have nuclear weapons to get Doomer Doug in full doom mode! Where's John Galt? He should be in on this doomfest!
Yep, there is nothing like Saudi Arabia admitting they have nuclear weapons to get Doomer Doug in full doom mode! Where's John Galt? He should be in on this doomfest!
1. Wouldn't a proven Saudi nuke give the Iranians a legitimate excuse to get their own "device," and to abrogate any treaties restricting such development?
2. How does the (still hypothetical) Saudi nuke capability compare in its effect to the Pakistani arsenal? The Pakis have had the bomb since the mid-1980s, and they have not (yet) given one to al Qaeda or the Taliban.
3. If the Saudis do indeed have the big one, then Tom Lehrer's song comes closer to reality:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvs_qTnUHMI
Lee
2. How does the (still hypothetical) Saudi nuke capability compare in its effect to the Pakistani arsenal? The Pakis have had the bomb since the mid-1980s, and they have not (yet) given one to al Qaeda or the Taliban.
3. If the Saudis do indeed have the big one, then Tom Lehrer's song comes closer to reality:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvs_qTnUHMI
Lee
FaithfulSkeptic
Carrying the mantle of doubt
Nuclear bomb aside, that is one tongue-waggling language!
Lurker
14
I'm not worried. Nothing I can do about it so better to put the energy elsewhere. But it does make for some awesome doom. DOOOOMMMMM!!!!!
For the record, it's lizard people in Hollyweird!
Lurker
14
What you end up with after kissing goats for thousands of years.
FarmerJohn
Has No Life - Lives on TB
If I lived in a neighborhood as dangerous as the Saudis do, I'd casually let it be known that I had nukes, too. that would be the case true or not so.
iceblue
Senior Member
Someone was asked to translate the Arabic in the video:
Shock
2 days ago
im saudi, the translation is accurate.
but the guy is a random citizen, not an official from the government. so it means nothing.
Shock
2 days ago (edited)
+20.000 subscribe without a video Challenge yeah, most people say saudi has nukes but they're parked in Pakistan.
question is, how much authority do they have to pick up the nukes from pakistan..is it only defensive, or?
Shock
2 days ago
im saudi, the translation is accurate.
but the guy is a random citizen, not an official from the government. so it means nothing.
Shock
2 days ago (edited)
+20.000 subscribe without a video Challenge yeah, most people say saudi has nukes but they're parked in Pakistan.
question is, how much authority do they have to pick up the nukes from pakistan..is it only defensive, or?
Doomer Doug
TB Fanatic
The source is MEMRI. the link is here. http://www.memritv.org/
You should read alfaman's posts again. This guy isn't a clown; he is not foaming at the mouth like North Korea would. It has been speculated for the last 20 years that Saudi Arabia paid for Pakistan to build them nuclear weapons. This guy just confirms what has been suspected for decades now. The open admission will have a profound impact in political, military and diplomatic terms in the Middle East.
You should read alfaman's posts again. This guy isn't a clown; he is not foaming at the mouth like North Korea would. It has been speculated for the last 20 years that Saudi Arabia paid for Pakistan to build them nuclear weapons. This guy just confirms what has been suspected for decades now. The open admission will have a profound impact in political, military and diplomatic terms in the Middle East.
Ok some more thoughts on this.....
- The interviewee says Saudi Arabia has "a nuclear bomb" in the manner that you'd say we had "the bomb". That doesn't imply numbers in possession (like the 2 earlier discussed), but full width and breath of what it means to be nuclear capable. In digging around more, again the main references besides the RT Arabic interview with Dahham Al Anzi, sourced from MEMRI's site are "alternative media" other than the interview on the Cavuto show on Fox Business with Duane Clarridge which as Clarridge saying that the Saudis having "dibs on 4 to 7" of the Pakistani weapons they helped pay most of the bill for developing and manufacturing.
- From all of this first no real surprise in the Saudis, or for that matter Iran, having nuclear capability, or access to it, for at the minimum the last decade. As I've often noted, we're talking about 1930s-40s physics and munitions engineering at its foundation. My "oh merde" moment was a statement I haven't found a collaborating source for (and if someone has it please post a link); that South Africa is directly involved and to what extent in this Saudi program for no other reason than the expansion of proliferation beyond the "Khan Network" (that Khan reportedly took it upon himself to "aid" Iran with information on fuel cycle technology (centrifuges) beyond the "civil technology" assistance that then Pres. Zia authorized while taking Saudi money to fund his nuclear program is "interesting" to say the least).
- The "unofficial" announcement by Al Anzi as a warning to everyone regarding the Kingdom's security in terms of Yemen and Syria does light off the warning lights, but it looks in a way as an act of desperation. If "everyone knows" they've got nuclear weapons what Al Anzi said is a thinly veiled exercise in "saber rattling" against a fully nuclear armed power that is already at war with the ideology the Saudis have been supporting ad nausea and they see as a direct threat already to the Russian people, any such direct threat would be stepping from the sidelines and onto the field proper.
- The Saudi missile forces, the Royal Saudi Strategic Missile Force (RSSMF), is an independent branch of the Saudi military that numbers 2500 personnel. It was set up initially in 1987 to counter the missile threat Iran posed as a result of the Iran-Iraq War. Saudi Arabia bought a "conventional warhead" armed version of the PRC's liquid fueled CSS-2/DF-3 IRBM, the DF-3A (3000 to 4000 km range throwing a warhead of up to 2150 kg/4730 lbs with a CEP of 1000 m).
Reportedly relying upon a cadre of "seconded" personnel from the PLA 2nd Artillery, the force started taking delivery of the missile and related support equipment in 1988. That force is suspected to be of between 30~120 missiles and 9~12 transporter erector launchers (TEL) and was first publicly displayed on Saudi TV in 2014.
In 2007, the KSA took delivery of an unknown number of PRC DF-21 solid fueled IRBMs (1,100 mile range throwing a 600 kg (1,300 lb) payload with a CEP of 30 meters). This deal was OK'd by the US on the understanding that they would be modified to not mount nuclear weapons like the DF-3As. The Saudis did not apparently buy the Chinese TELs that go with this system so either they are to be used at fixed sites or they're going to use the less capable TELs of the DF-3As.
With high explosive unitary or sub-munition warheads these systems are a threat to large facilities like petrochemical, industrial sites or airfields. Lobbing them at smaller targets like C4IR sites in the case of the older DF-3As would be a waste of resources and in the case of the DF-21s though effective, would open up Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States to the vastly larger missile strike capability of the Iranians (conventional or nuclear).
Now if you add 4 to 7 nuclear weapons into that mix of missiles, that math changes, particularly if Iran actually did give up a reported nuclear capability. If on the other hand you're looking at Iran having perhaps a dozen nuclear weapons, you now have a MAD scenario comparable to that early on in the nuclear phase of the "warm war" between India and Pakistan. If you add a percentage of the Pakistani arsenal "dual tasked" with Iranian targets it gets even more interesting and a real stimuli for Iran to "nuke up".
- Now as to threatening the Russians in Syria with this missile force or a mix of these missiles and aircraft delivered weapons. The first problem the Saudis would have would be whether the Chinese still have a significant support role for their missile force. If they do then they potentially have a real veto power on their use akin to the "2 Key System" the US has with NATO allies.
Next is the degree to which the Russians have faith in the S-400 system they deployed to guard their main bases in Assad held territory. The coverage is such that the Russians would see the launch(s) and have an opportunity to intercept. As to aircraft, I'm guessing if they aren't there yet we're going to see a dedicated AWACS patrol over the area as well.
The biggest point is that the Russians, seeing the Syrian situation important enough to put an expeditionary force that far out from direct supply from Russia, including naval assets, they're deadly serious about their support for Assad and their minimum goals.
If all you can do is threaten that specific force and not the Rodina, IMHO the Russians are more than willing to pick up that thrown gauntlet. Even if the Saudis could put three weapons into key targets in Syria, in support of "moderate rebels", and had 4 to 7 left over to keep Iran at bay (or for that matter use them on Iran since they've already kicked over the table), the Russians would have no issues at all with using up a couple of their strategic systems launched out of Russia proper and probably overflying only Russian and allied airspace to respond in kind and more so in the same manner that the US has stated it would do if WMDs were used against its forces.
Such a Russian strike would be in a manner that would remove the KSA from the table and drop it into a full blown civil war because at the top of that targeting list besides the royal family would be the major bases of their military. With them gonr or severely compromised, the various factions within the country that are being suppressed would literally leap out of the ground to try to seize the place for themselves.
- The interviewee says Saudi Arabia has "a nuclear bomb" in the manner that you'd say we had "the bomb". That doesn't imply numbers in possession (like the 2 earlier discussed), but full width and breath of what it means to be nuclear capable. In digging around more, again the main references besides the RT Arabic interview with Dahham Al Anzi, sourced from MEMRI's site are "alternative media" other than the interview on the Cavuto show on Fox Business with Duane Clarridge which as Clarridge saying that the Saudis having "dibs on 4 to 7" of the Pakistani weapons they helped pay most of the bill for developing and manufacturing.
- From all of this first no real surprise in the Saudis, or for that matter Iran, having nuclear capability, or access to it, for at the minimum the last decade. As I've often noted, we're talking about 1930s-40s physics and munitions engineering at its foundation. My "oh merde" moment was a statement I haven't found a collaborating source for (and if someone has it please post a link); that South Africa is directly involved and to what extent in this Saudi program for no other reason than the expansion of proliferation beyond the "Khan Network" (that Khan reportedly took it upon himself to "aid" Iran with information on fuel cycle technology (centrifuges) beyond the "civil technology" assistance that then Pres. Zia authorized while taking Saudi money to fund his nuclear program is "interesting" to say the least).
- The "unofficial" announcement by Al Anzi as a warning to everyone regarding the Kingdom's security in terms of Yemen and Syria does light off the warning lights, but it looks in a way as an act of desperation. If "everyone knows" they've got nuclear weapons what Al Anzi said is a thinly veiled exercise in "saber rattling" against a fully nuclear armed power that is already at war with the ideology the Saudis have been supporting ad nausea and they see as a direct threat already to the Russian people, any such direct threat would be stepping from the sidelines and onto the field proper.
- The Saudi missile forces, the Royal Saudi Strategic Missile Force (RSSMF), is an independent branch of the Saudi military that numbers 2500 personnel. It was set up initially in 1987 to counter the missile threat Iran posed as a result of the Iran-Iraq War. Saudi Arabia bought a "conventional warhead" armed version of the PRC's liquid fueled CSS-2/DF-3 IRBM, the DF-3A (3000 to 4000 km range throwing a warhead of up to 2150 kg/4730 lbs with a CEP of 1000 m).
Reportedly relying upon a cadre of "seconded" personnel from the PLA 2nd Artillery, the force started taking delivery of the missile and related support equipment in 1988. That force is suspected to be of between 30~120 missiles and 9~12 transporter erector launchers (TEL) and was first publicly displayed on Saudi TV in 2014.
In 2007, the KSA took delivery of an unknown number of PRC DF-21 solid fueled IRBMs (1,100 mile range throwing a 600 kg (1,300 lb) payload with a CEP of 30 meters). This deal was OK'd by the US on the understanding that they would be modified to not mount nuclear weapons like the DF-3As. The Saudis did not apparently buy the Chinese TELs that go with this system so either they are to be used at fixed sites or they're going to use the less capable TELs of the DF-3As.
With high explosive unitary or sub-munition warheads these systems are a threat to large facilities like petrochemical, industrial sites or airfields. Lobbing them at smaller targets like C4IR sites in the case of the older DF-3As would be a waste of resources and in the case of the DF-21s though effective, would open up Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States to the vastly larger missile strike capability of the Iranians (conventional or nuclear).
Now if you add 4 to 7 nuclear weapons into that mix of missiles, that math changes, particularly if Iran actually did give up a reported nuclear capability. If on the other hand you're looking at Iran having perhaps a dozen nuclear weapons, you now have a MAD scenario comparable to that early on in the nuclear phase of the "warm war" between India and Pakistan. If you add a percentage of the Pakistani arsenal "dual tasked" with Iranian targets it gets even more interesting and a real stimuli for Iran to "nuke up".
- Now as to threatening the Russians in Syria with this missile force or a mix of these missiles and aircraft delivered weapons. The first problem the Saudis would have would be whether the Chinese still have a significant support role for their missile force. If they do then they potentially have a real veto power on their use akin to the "2 Key System" the US has with NATO allies.
Next is the degree to which the Russians have faith in the S-400 system they deployed to guard their main bases in Assad held territory. The coverage is such that the Russians would see the launch(s) and have an opportunity to intercept. As to aircraft, I'm guessing if they aren't there yet we're going to see a dedicated AWACS patrol over the area as well.
The biggest point is that the Russians, seeing the Syrian situation important enough to put an expeditionary force that far out from direct supply from Russia, including naval assets, they're deadly serious about their support for Assad and their minimum goals.
If all you can do is threaten that specific force and not the Rodina, IMHO the Russians are more than willing to pick up that thrown gauntlet. Even if the Saudis could put three weapons into key targets in Syria, in support of "moderate rebels", and had 4 to 7 left over to keep Iran at bay (or for that matter use them on Iran since they've already kicked over the table), the Russians would have no issues at all with using up a couple of their strategic systems launched out of Russia proper and probably overflying only Russian and allied airspace to respond in kind and more so in the same manner that the US has stated it would do if WMDs were used against its forces.
Such a Russian strike would be in a manner that would remove the KSA from the table and drop it into a full blown civil war because at the top of that targeting list besides the royal family would be the major bases of their military. With them gonr or severely compromised, the various factions within the country that are being suppressed would literally leap out of the ground to try to seize the place for themselves.
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