INTL Rescuing Boys From Cave Could Take Months - UPDATE, #444, THEY’RE ALL OUT

[Intestinal Fortitude]

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Rescuing Boys From Cave Could Take Months
They may have to learn to dive to escape flooded cave system

By Rob Quinn, Newser Staff
Posted Jul 3, 2018 4:01 AM CDT
Updated Jul 3, 2018 6:21 AM CDT





(Newser) – The discovery of 12 Thai boys and their coach still alive after 10 days trapped in a flooded cave has brought massive relief to their families and an anxious nation—but the military warns that their ordeal could be only just beginning.

The group, discovered by two British divers late Monday, are on a dry rock ledge around 2.5 miles from the mouth of the cave, and the Thai military says it could be months before it can get them out, unless the boys learn to dive, the BBC reports.

The cave in northern Thailand often remains flooded until the end of the rainy season in September or October, meaning the youth soccer team and their coach may need to have food and other supplies sent in for the next four months.

Experts warn that it could be very difficult to get the boys, ages 11 to 16, to safety through miles of dark, narrow, flooded tunnels.

"Trying to take non-divers through a cave is one of the most dangerous situations possible, even if the dives are relatively easy," US National Cave Rescue Commission coordinator Anmar Mirza tells the AP.

Thai officials say they're committed to "100% safety" and will continue to explore their options, including draining water from the cave system and searching for shafts that could provide an alternative escape route.

Officials say the boys are hungry and weak but in stable medical condition with only minor injuries. They have been provided with high-protein liquid food and will be given more supplies and visited by doctors in the days to come.

 

[Millwright]

2.5 mi is a long swim/dive.

 

[Satanta]

2.5 mi is a long swim/dive.

I know Zero about Diving with a tank but it seems the entire 2.5 miles cannot be flooded-how lng does a tank last? Seems I've read around 20 mins? So, even dragging a spare tank, lights and whatever else one needs to dive in a flooded cave it does not seem two tanks would go that far in.

 

[FaithfulSkeptic]

If they're going to be in there for months, I sure hope they're on a big rock ledge that will afford an isolated area for a latrine.

 

[summerthyme]

2.5 mi is a long swim/dive.

It is, but still... the longer they stand/sit around on a rock ledge, the more and more physical conditioning they are going to lose, and the higher the chances are some of them are going to start going nuts.

Some basic training, good equipment, and well selected buddy divers for each boy, with a microphone to be able to talk between them for the entire swim, should be doable. It should take a few days at most of intensive instruction, and given the risks of leaving them in there for "months", I think the risk must be taken.

Summerthyme

 

[FaithfulSkeptic]

It is, but still... the longer they stand/sit around on a rock ledge, the more and more physical conditioning they are going to lose, and the higher the chances are some of them are going to start going nuts.

Some basic training, good equipment, and well selected buddy divers for each boy, with a microphone to be able to talk between them for the entire swim, should be doable. It should take a few days at most of intensive instruction, and given the risks of leaving them in there for "months", I think the risk must be taken.

Summerthyme

Well stated. If it were me, I'd opt for the crash course and take my chances with a pro diver guiding me out.

 

[Luddite]

Having dived overhangs and lava tubes I can say a 2.5 mile cave dive would be daunting. Some people just couldn't do it. Fear of water leaves some incapacitated. Not knowing the route or conditions, i would think considering a sealed pressurized "pod" would be an option. Pull it like a tube hooked to a rope.

 

[Old Gray Mare]

Having dived overhangs and lava tubes I can say a 2.5 mile cave dive would be daunting. Some people just couldn't do it. Fear of water leaves some incapacitated. Not knowing the route or conditions, i would think considering a sealed pressurized "pod" would be an option. Pull it like a tube hooked to a rope.

Having gone spelunking in my younger days, a pod not be able to accommodate tight spaces a man or boy can shimmy thru.

 

[Millwright]

How long does a tank last?

Kinda like, how far can you go on a gallon of gas.

It depends on many things. A panicky person will blow through a tank in no time. I'm very comfortable underwater, always the last person in the boat...with plenty of air left.

The big consideration is hauling air in.

They need enough to teach them, just for starters.

Spare rigs staged along the path out.



Quite an undertaking.

 

[The Mountain]

Two miles in implies a huge and relatively level cave system. I hope they're probing heavily for shafts or other entrances that might bypass the flooded sections.

 

[Mixin]

I wonder how far down the boys are? Maybe they can drill down to them like they did those trapped miners several years ago.

 

[Millwright]

They have to haul in a grab bag of masks, fins, etc. And find some to fit every kid.

If any of them have the sniffles or sinus problems, that presents an issue.

 

[Used Camels]

I wonder how far down the boys are? Maybe they can drill down to them like they did those trapped miners several years ago.

This is what I'm wondering ... they ought to be able to drill an access tunnel from above.

 

[Luddite]

My dive table memory is rusty. If they are trapped at even 15 ft equivalent pressure, the longer they stay creates decompression issues. The "bends" can be as serious as drowning.

 

[Oreally]

I wonder how far down the boys are? Maybe they can drill down to them like they did those trapped miners several years ago.

look like it'd be pretty hard to get drilling equipment up there

 

[Melodi]

They are looking at drilling and other emergency options as the cave is continuing to flood; I mean the good news is they found them alive, but now they have to keep them that way and get them out of there.

I did wonder if a mini-sub could be used but I don't know enough about such things to even know if that is laughable or a real option? (probably taking them out two at a time or something).

 

[Millwright]

My dive table memory is rusty. If they are trapped at even 15 ft equivalent pressure, the longer they stay creates decompression issues. The "bends" can be as serious as drowning.

I would assume they were getting fresh air at atmospheric pressure.

 

[Richard]

They managed to get in there with or without equipment so they should be able to get out.......

 

[BornFree]

 

[Melodi]

They managed to get in there with or without equipment so they should be able to get out.......

You may want to read the backstory, they were hiking in during the DRY season when all of it was above water when a sudden and unexpected storm kicked off the monsoon season early and flooded not only the cave but the only ways in or out of it.

The flooding is expected to continue until October and may get too high for the boys to survive even with food, water and specially trained doctors (who are divers) coming to help them out.

 

[Oreally]

wow! one section is to narrow to wear an oxygen tank!

 

[Melodi]

wow! one section is to narrow to wear an oxygen tank!

That is what may really make it impossible to "dive" the boys out, I can't see anyone other than highly trained specialist divers being able to do this, and if a tank can't get through it is unlikely a grown adult holding a young teenager would be able to fit in either. That also nixes the mini-sub idea, I hope they can drill in and/or at least make the shelf habitable until the Fall.

 

[Doc1]

There are so many technical factors involved here that it's almost mind boggling. As a former commercial diver, I'll address just a few of them. The depth of the cave and the pressure in the cave chamber are considerations. If the trapped people are in a pressurized bubble - think upturning a cup and forcing it down in a sink full of water - drilling a shaft into the chamber could de-pressurize it and immediately flood it. Again, imagine your upturned cup in water and a hole being drilled down through the top of it. If they are under any appreciable pressure, as Luddite pointed out - there could be decompression issues. Don't refer to the US Navy air diving tables for guidance here: You need to understand "air saturation diving" which is a rare and poorly understood phenomenon. It is not used in commercial diving and is really an experimental field. Pressures/depths which would be with the normal no decompression diving tables, don't apply when a human body has been under pressure for days or weeks. After such a long period, the body tissues are "saturated" with nitrogen and the decompression requirements are different than standard air diving tables.

Cave diving is a dangerous sport. Commercial divers wouldn't make a "penetration" (entering a shaft, cave or wreck where one cannot make a free ascent) without massive surface preparation and redundancies. Cave divers, who are, admittedly, generally well-trained, do things and take risks which are flatly unacceptable in the commercial diving realm. It would be difficult to get a single victim out of a cave in the circumstances described in the story. Getting a group of them out without fatalities strikes me as well nigh impossible. It's not only dangerous to the victims, but for the rescuers, as well.

The first thing I would do if I were the dive supervisor onsite is to run an air hose to the survivors to send them breathable compressed air from a dive compressor. Here one should note that breathable air requires compressed air from an oil-less compressor or a compressor using a special oil rated for diving applications. Simple, apparently minor things, such as using the wrong compressor oil can kill! No easy solutions here. I've sent my prayers for them.

Best regards
Doc

 

[Knoxville's Joker]

could they not chip out a passage way and enlarge the narrow areas?

 

[Dredge]

How long does a tank last?

Kinda like, how far can you go on a gallon of gas.

It depends on many things. A panicky person will blow through a tank in no time. I'm very comfortable underwater, always the last person in the boat...with plenty of air left.

The big consideration is hauling air in.

They need enough to teach them, just for starters.

Spare rigs staged along the path out.



Quite an undertaking.

Pretty sure they have rebreathers these days Stashing tanks on the way in is an option Just getting them comfortable under water so they don't panic and drown with good air available is going to tke some training

 

[Scotto]

The best option may be just to keep bringing them food and supplies until the season is over and they can hike back out. Like Doc said, you drill down to them and you'll let the pressure out and everyone drowns.

Re-breathers would take them the 2.5 miles, but if one can't squeeze through with a tank on their back in one area - then there goes that plan.

 

[Faroe]

If in charge, I would be inclined to try to keep them alive until the water drained, and keep the area sanitary in the meantime.

Was Naui certified (however it is spelled) about twenty years ago, dislike unfamiliar water, and never went diving again. I also panic in tight spaces. Diving out? Wouldn't be happening for me - I'd be concerned about putting the guide at risk.

It is an uncomfortable situation even to read about. I think I'd rather be stuck in the Andes living under the wreck of a crashed plane.

 

[Mixin]

Thanks for the maps Oreally and Bornfree; they really show what a difficult task this will be.

 

[Stanb999]

Id put them in mini dry sacks with hard hats and drag the buggers thru. Fyi Dry sacks are for sub rescue. Sedate them if you must. Deepest section is 16ft. Hardly deep.

 

[night driver]

Uhhmmm "deepest section is 16 feet" leaves out the fact that the cave is 1 to 1.5 kliks below the surface (per cutaway diagram...)

REGARDLESS of how or when they get SOME or ALL of them out, there are going to be more than a few folks with recurring nightmares over the next few years.

This is AT LEAST as tough as my buddy leading the NASA portion of the Chilean miner recovery. I've posted the hour or so long video from JD's talk on that effort.

I have a couple spelunker and speleologist friends and the number of moving parts to whatever they do here is mindboggling.

 

[NC Susan]

Bull $hit
Men have been trapped in mines for hundreds of years and almost always rescued or recovered

If "diving doctors " can get "in" then the boys can get "out"
A team of Navy Seals could have then out in 4 hours

The Seals could use propelled equipment to tow the boys out with minimal harm
And gloat them thru Even thru the narrowest sections

This sounds like it's going to be another GoFundMe scam to extort millions of dollars in unnecessary pearl clutching funding squandered on everyone but the trapped victims

 

[night driver]

Bull $hit
A team of Navy Seals could have then out in 4 hours

The Seals could use propelled equipment to tow the boys out with minimal harm
This sounds like it's going to be another GoFundMe scam to extort millions of dollars in unnecessary pearl clutching funding squandered on everyone but the trapped victims

You too much TeeVee, ma'am. There are at least a few sections where the passage is too small for a swimmer to wear his air tank and get through. As a start.

 

[Richard]

Can't believe there are so many experts on pot holing and diving on this forum suddenly surfacing. Has anyone here actually done said pot holing apart from doc1 or is this just internet armchair expertise. I always find it odd that suddenly everyone is an expert in some subject or another no matter how obscure.

Rainy season in Thailand:

"The rainy season in Thailand varies from region to region and is largely dominated by the monsoon. Very broadly speaking, Thailand’s rainy season can be classified as May/June to October. For most of Thailand, the wettest months are usually August-October."

So we are well into the potential rainy season.

 

[Garryowen]

If there are places too tight for their tanks, I doubt that propelled equipment will get through either.

 

[FreeSpace]

I am a caver and cave rescue certified. Not a diver though.

Keep them there. Well fed and warm. They should be fine.

Swimming out is a massive risk, not worth it!

 

[Stanb999]

Uhhmmm "deepest section is 16 feet" leaves out the fact that the cave is 1 to 1.5 kliks below the surface (per cutaway diagram...)

REGARDLESS of how or when they get SOME or ALL of them out, there are going to be more than a few folks with recurring nightmares over the next few years.

This is AT LEAST as tough as my buddy leading the NASA portion of the Chilean miner recovery. I've posted the hour or so long video from JD's talk on that effort.

I have a couple spelunker and speleologist friends and the number of moving parts to whatever they do here is mindboggling.

The elevation plays a small part. It would matter if the cave was high in the mountains say 8k ft. But being low would only extend dive tables.

 

[Stanb999]

Double

 

[Stanb999]

Can't believe there are so many experts on pot holing and diving on this forum suddenly surfacing. Has anyone here actually done said pot holing apart from doc1 or is this just internet armchair expertise. I always find it odd that suddenly everyone is an expert in some subject or another no matter how obscure.

Rainy season in Thailand:

"The rainy season in Thailand varies from region to region and is largely dominated by the monsoon. Very broadly speaking, Thailand’s rainy season can be classified as May/June to October. For most of Thailand, the wettest months are usually August-October."

So we are well into the potential rainy season.

Certified rescue diver for 25 years.

 

[Doc1]

Pretty sure they have rebreathers these days Stashing tanks on the way in is an option Just getting them comfortable under water so they don't panic and drown with good air available is going to tke some training

Rebreathers are very old technology. There were "OBA" (Oxygen Breathing Apparatus) rebreathing units since before WWII. These were considered safe only down to around 30 feet because they used pure O2 and oxygen toxicity was a concern. Modern rebreathers use various diluent gasses in addition to O2, but are much more technically complex and require more training than simple SCUBA. In some posters' scenarios you would train these kids to be scuba divers (while they're scared, in a darkened cave, etc) and then train them to use rebreathers??? Like so many seemingly simple problems, in real life the difficulties compound and feed off of one another. The depth of the water in the cave is the least of the problems these victims will confront. They face very cramped passages where personal equipment may have to be removed to allow the diver's passage, dark conditions where orientation and navigation can be a problem and a host of other things.

If I was convinced that helping the kids to swim out was the only option (and if they weren't under much pressure), I think I'd give them some brief training and then send down a KMB Band Mask and a diving harness with a complete diving umbilical. In this way, their entire head would be covered in a protective rubber hood, they would have two-way communications with the surface and could pretty much use the Band Mask hands free. Typically, a commercial diver making a penetration would also use a "bailout bottle" which supplies air if the surface air supply is cut off, but if the passages in the cave are as narrow as described, that might not work. If a qualified diver set up the band mask on the victim's head, the victim wouldn't have to touch a thing and could breathe normally as he made his passage out. Even this would be dangerous as hell, because the victim could accidentally flood the mask or possibly get stuck in a tight passage, thereby blocking it for other victims and divers.

I think I'd try to leave them where they were - if safe - with a supply of air, until the water levels dropped enough for them to crawl out. Of course all this speculation is worthless without an on-site inspection of conditions.

Again, prayers sent for them.

Best regards
Doc

 

[Millwright]

I can't imagine 2.5 mi of hose working.


Certified in 1979.