ALERT Regional middleast war thread Israel and Iran at war

Walrus

Veteran Member
"Able Archer" comes to mind....Meanwhile we've got the IDF working at "pruning" Hezbollah's chain of command along the northern border.
All directed by the WH Chief of Staff who is running the country because the (p)Resident is captured by dementia, memory breakdown, emotional outbursts and natural aging accelerated by the constant job stresses. That's on top of his being a complete crook, pedophile and loudmouth thug. And as it turns out, the Chief of Staff is Jewish?

What an incredible coincidence.
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
I don't follow NYPrepper, so I don't know how good he is. Right now he is broadcasting a number of Alerts. He says/said at 11 pm EST there were 3 Nuke Command Aircraft airborne, and other alerts. He says we are at Defcon 2. Thought I would post it, just in case.

Scanning back on the thread I see that this was known some time ago; mea culpa.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-9GQCeN6SQ
 
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Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
Significant events that occurred on April 19th:
-Battle of Lexington, start of the American Revolution

-First bloodshed of the American Civil war

-Waco siege began

-Murrah Federal Building bombing in Oklahoma City

Blood sacrifice:

  • 1943 – Jews in the Warsaw Ghetto staged an armed revolt against Nazi SS troops attempting to forcibly deport them to death camps.

    Warsaw Ghetto
  • 1993 – At Waco, Texas, the compound of the Branch Davidian religious cult burned to the ground with 82 persons inside, including 17 children. The fire erupted after federal agents battered buildings in the compound with armored vehicles following a 51-day standoff.
  • 1995 – The Oklahoma City bombing – A federal building is bombed killing 168 people.
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
You do seem to hold Iran in very high regard while almost dismissive on the capabilities of Israel.

Why I don’t doubt a full on Iran v Israel donnie-brook would be quite destructive I am somewhat perplexed on your leaning so hard on Iran’s capability.

Historically what we have seen from Iran, except for Iran Iraq war, is Iran using proxies to do their fighting. Israel we do seem to have more direct experience.

Until proven otherwise it seems Israel would be more deserving than Iran.

Also a full on Iran missile barrage on Israel would likely get a glass encased response that would level most if not all Iran military and nuclear installations leaving the government powerless against subjegating their population.
Naw, that is just your perception; I don't think you can handle any narrative that doesn't fit your paradigm. Israel is highly capable with the best tech in the M.E., some of the best in the world. However, Hezbollah kicked their ass the last time Israel tried a large invasion of S Lebanon and they pulled back with significant losses. Iran probably has the largest collection of missiles in the world, and I'm sure that includes plenty of hypersonic ballistic missiles and ship killers.

Why do I lean so hard on Iran's capability? Because it is there, it is real, and it could possibly kick much harder ass than 80% of the sword wavers can imagine. I'll bet the majority of them really actually thought Ukraine was kicking Russia's ass the last 18 months. Not so. It should have been obvious that Russia was grinding Ukraine to paste over a year ago.

Will Iran do it, can they? I think Israel and the USA may have wonder weapons that defeat Iran from the get go. But I don't think it likely. We don't know what Russia, or China might do. China has said if the USA attacks Russia, they will come to the aid of Russia, anywhere in the world. We ARE in a different world than 6 months ago.

I prefer to look at facts, look at suppositions, read, and listen, and try to see with as clear a mind's eye that I can the most probable reality that could manifest. This isn't a game, but I think a great many people are acting more like this is a computer or video game. Maybe they just lack the imagination to really imagine what this could turn into. I don't mean intellectually, I mean Fright Night, for real.

I don't think their ground forces have the same kind of verve that their grandparents had in 67 and 73.

I'm not on either side; I'm not afraid to search out multiple sources. If I'm not rah rahing on for "your" team to win, well, so it goes, you don't pay my rent and I owe you nothing. I have and do study history, mostly Western, including a great deal of military history and this ker****le with Iran actually attacking back in a very significant way, could spiral into the Great Global Collapse of the financial world. If it really gets out of hand it could end up with the end of civilization.
so I watch, and I comment
and so it goes
 
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Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
I'd lay some money on Turkey kicking Iran's ass at some point in the not so distant future. I, also, think that Saudi Arabia is as much a target for Iran as Israel is.

With the overlapping territorial desires of the two aspirant empires, Neo-Ottoman via the AKP and Neo-Persian a la Shia, it will only be a matter of time until conflict between the two occurs.
 

phloydius

Veteran Member
On NYPrepper...

He's been in my feed off & on for years. He has some good prepping videos. Those are often worth watching, especially for those newer to prepping. However, if you look thru his history he almost always has an "Emergency Alert" or a "Red Alert" going. The reports of being a DEFCON 2, doomsday planes, EAMs, leaders heading to the bunkers, and missiles are about to fly are all mainstays of his channel and happening a couple of time almost every week... for years now.

When it comes to how he reports the "news" NYPrepper is in the same category as KLW News & Canadian Prepper. Getting eyeballs on videos YouTube pays wells and is big business, fear drives eyeballs, and business is good.

On the more level headed reporting side, I've been following & chatting (off & on) with the folks at EAM.Watch for quite some time. They have been recording & documenting EAMs, Skymasters, & Skykings for a long time. One of those members ended up setting up a YouTube feed, integrating HAM receivers to the internet: NEET Intel.

NEET Intel Youtube channel is: https://www.youtube.com/@neetintel

NEET Intel comes on an talks from time to time during the live feeds, but most of the time it is just tuned to the various channels that EAMs use, like 8992.

But, NEET Intel discusses in a very level headed way, must of the EAM related things going on. Such as the multiple Skymaster messages that went out yesterday, which was being reported by NYPrepper as "extremely serious". NEET Intel explained that in April 2023, Skymaster did a pattern of broadcasts over a couple of weeks that was very similar to the ones in this April. So much so, that NEET Intel predicted that there would be multiple Skymaster message in the coming days a few days ago -- and was right.

If you are interested in EAMs, I'd recommend checking out NEET Intel. Although, be forewarned, it is a very calming environment that is not likely to make you freak out and go out and buy a bunch of prepping equipment from sponsors.
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Per Amir Tsarfati:
"Hezbollah just successfully attacked a mobile radar station of Iron Dome"

video at link (date on this post is 4/17/24 but Israel time vs our time, etc.)


ETA:

Clash Report has this same video but the following information:

"Hezbollah claims it targeted IDF AN/TPQ-37 Firefinder radar.

AN/TPQ-37 Firefinder radar is used to locate hostile artillery and rocket launchers at their normal firing ranges."

Does that mean this "wasn't" an 'Iron Dome" radar?

Clash Report link is Clash Report

1713454684729.png
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
From a Telegram site called "Documenting Israel"--

I love how they call it "Pallywood"

"These have to be THE worst Pallywood actors in Gaza I have seen in a while, like literally THE worst.

The woman smiling and the serious overacting is beyond moronic that anyone with a brain will fall for this."


1713455232321.png
 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
Not exactly something we didn't already know, but confirms what we speculated that night:

"During the April 14th night of Iranian attack on Israel there was already a decision to attack back but the IDF asked to postpone it in a few days for operational reasons."


 

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
latest post from Telegram of the Israeli Defense Forces regarding operations in Gaza:


IDF: Locating and destroying underground tunnel routes and rocket production facilities; Expanding the operational hold on the Karni Corridor: footage from the targeted operation of the 162nd Division in the central Gaza Strip

Over the past week, the soldiers of the 401st Brigade combat team, together with forces of the Yahalom Unit, cleared and destroyed more than 100 terrorist infrastructure sites and eliminated more than 40 terrorists in close quarters combat and airstrikes. Among the terrorist infrastructure destroyed - several military targets of the terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip, among them, a facility used for the production of rockets and weapons of the Hamas terrorist organization; and a facility used for the production of long-range rocket missiles of the Islamic Jihad terrorist organization.

The soldiers conducted an operational raid on an underground combat control center located under Wadi Gaza designed to prevent IDF forces from crossing Wadi Gaza. Many weapons belonging toHamas terrorists were found in the combat compound.

During the operation, 17 tunnel shafts were destroyed, including offensive shafts. In addition, the forces located a number of launchers and launching pits used by the terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip.

Before the troops entered the area and during the operation, the 215th Fire Control Brigade eliminated many terrorists. The forces of the brigade, IAF fighter jets and aircraft targeted dozens of targets. The artillery units targeted terrorist infrastructure in the central Gaza Strip.

At the same time, the Nahal Brigade combat team has been carrying out operational activities in the area of the Karni Corridor for the past three months. The corridor is a route that separates the northern and southern Gaza Strip, from which the forces have carried out targeted raids.
During the divisional operation this week, the forces, acting on intelligence information, eliminated terrorists with precision missiles; located weapons and tunnel shafts; and destroyed an underground route in the area.
So far dozens of targeted raids have been carried out, more than 1,000 terrorists have been eliminated in the area, and more than 20 kilometers of underground tunnel routes in the area of the corridor have been destroyed.

Attached is an animated infographic of footage of the underground tunnel routes and their destruction: https://bit.ly/4aXwId7

Attached is footage of the location and destruction of the tunnel shafts in the area by the 401st Brigade combat team: https://bit.ly/3Uoc93d

Attached is footage from the activity of the Nahal Brigade combat team in the Central Gaza Strip: https://bit.ly/3xDtg9s

Attached is footage of the strikes of the 215th Brigade in the Central Gaza Strip: https://bit.ly/4aCkgjf

Attached is an animation of the activity of the Nahal Brigade combat team in the Karni Corridor: https://bit.ly/3vXahpF

Attached are photos of the tunnel shafts that were located: https://IDFANC.activetrail.biz/ANC09528
 

Walrus

Veteran Member
I'd lay some money on Turkey kicking Iran's ass at some point in the not so distant future. I, also, think that Saudi Arabia is as much a target for Iran as Israel is.
You may be right about the Turks sticking their bulbous noses into the fray sooner or later. Erdogan is walking such a tightrope at the moment, though. Depending on what he believes is in his best interests (reconstituting the Ottoman Empire is his base philosophy while enriching his family) will determine what kind of action he'll take.

I think they'll want to clean up their Kurdish problem before taking on Iran, though. If he didn't do that, his flank would be wide open. Besides, the uneasy partnership among Sunni (the Turkish version), other Sunni like Wahabi (the Kingdom) and the Shia (Iran, Iraqi resistance, Qatar, et al) will be put aside until the infidels are dealt with. Erdogan does appear to have a global perspective with respect to strategy. He may have blown Turkey's main chance to become a huge gas hub, though, via a new pipeline from Russia/Azerbaijan.

It's a family quarrel in which we don't belong, just like the Slavic one up north. But of course we'll stupidly leave our atomics in Turkey's air base in the meantime. None of this will be kinetic before the election, though; it'll just be simmering all summer unless some of the hotheads blow up.
 

Ragnarok

On and On, South of Heaven
From a Telegram site called "Documenting Israel"--

I love how they call it "Pallywood"

"These have to be THE worst Pallywood actors in Gaza I have seen in a while, like literally THE worst.

The woman smiling and the serious overacting is beyond moronic that anyone with a brain will fall for this."


View attachment 471010

Shirley Temper was the worst.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bttixyhAqoM&ab_channel=Haaretz.com
 

Wildweasel

F-4 Phantoms Phorever
Lots of air tankers off Cape cod, in the gulf of Maine. They are fueling lots of non tracking aircraft by the way they are doing laps.
If they were refueling somebody going somewhere, they meet up and fly along together, refueling enroute. Off the coast doing laps could be refueling training for their "customers" in a location where an "Oops!" is not going to drop a tanker and receiver on top of somebody.

I'm thinking F-15s from the MA Air National Guard, F-35s from the Vermont ANG. Or even out of town players like F-15 Strike Eagles based in NC who fly up to fly penetration missions starting off the coast of Maine, over into the NY Adirondacks and down the Appalachians to bombing ranges at Eglin AFB, FL.

There's a possibility they're doing refueling familiarization training with the funny all-white aircraft rumored to do evacuation missions, sprinting to an airfield near DC, picking up high value passengers and then heading out over water to ride out an attack. Their primary refuelers are changing from KC-135s to KC-46s so having the tanker units in Maine and New Hampshire pick up the mission makes sense.
 

Wildweasel

F-4 Phantoms Phorever
I’m not seeing any call signs on them and a few went dark. Interesting.
Once they get into formation, flight lead stays active and everyone else goes dark so ATC doesn't get swamped with info all in close proximity on their screen and collision alerts don't go off constantly. ATC has the flight plan which will state "Flight of" ever how many planes and flight lead's info that ADS-B will show.
 
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WildDaisy

God has a plan, Trust it!
I don't follow NYPrepper, so I don't know how good he is. Right now he is broadcasting a number of Alerts. He says/said at 11 pm EST there were 3 Nuke Command Aircraft airborne, and other alerts. He says we are at Defcon 2. Thought I would post it, just in case.

Scanning back on the thread I see that this was known some time ago; mea culpa.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-9GQCeN6SQ

Lets just say there are some nuggets on his channel, and some over hyping things. There is absolutely no way for him to KNOW we're at DEFCON 2 since it is a classified desigination. It was his best guess. He was also telling people that SkyKing messages were giving the OK to launch, which there was no way for him to know that too since he doesnt have the code book and had no way to know what the code broadcast meant. He whipped his chat into a frenzy.

There are some good things to monitor on the stream, but take it all with a grain of salt, do your own research and dont take a sole single resource as gospel.

I agree on NEET. He's way more level headed and objective. Limited in scope to messages and he doesnt read into anything he broadcasts with conjecture.
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
Lets just say there are some nuggets on his channel, and some over hyping things. There is absolutely no way for him to KNOW we're at DEFCON 2 since it is a classified desigination. It was his best guess. He was also telling people that SkyKing messages were giving the OK to launch, which there was no way for him to know that too since he doesnt have the code book and had no way to know what the code broadcast meant. He whipped his chat into a frenzy.

There are some good things to monitor on the stream, but take it all with a grain of salt, do your own research and dont take a sole single resource as gospel.

I agree on NEET. He's way more level headed and objective. Limited in scope to messages and he doesnt read into anything he broadcasts with conjecture.
Thanks. A bro of mine has brought him up several times. I listen to Canadian Prepper at times, for a while. He does have some great info and he is a news hound, but his emotional excitement shows he is still new to all this doom. :lol: :lol: :lol:
 

Johnny Twoguns

Senior Member
With the overlapping territorial desires of the two aspirant empires, Neo-Ottoman via the AKP and Neo-Persian a la Shia, it will only be a matter of time until conflict between the two occurs.
It could be a fifty years in the future; there is no significant sword waving between them other than some faction squabbling in Syria, Iraq, and a few other places. I don't see any of that escalating into open warfare. Now, should Iran get wiped out, or heavily damaged in a large Regional War, that Turkey more or less sits out; that could change dramatically.

Looking back over the last two hundred years I gotta say, all in all, there was more "peace" in the M.E. when the Ottoman Empire was still a Power than the area is today. Don't get me wrong, I'm still pissed they took and have kept Constantinople, :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: (not kidding, I am).

Sure, there are thousands of local examples where that can be argued against, but I did say all in all. Had the Turks not taken the Austro-Hungarian side in WWI it is possible they would still rule most of the M.E.

"While Western Europeans generally viewed them as a threat, many historians regard the Ottoman Empire as a source of great regional stability and security, as well as important achievements in the arts, science, religion and culture."
 

WildDaisy

God has a plan, Trust it!
Apparently someone on all that mil traffic last night asked if it was a drill and someone answered "real world".
They did, but the problem was assuming what that "real world" event was. Saying it was launch codes to fire on Iran may or may not have been true. Could have been looking for Russian or Chinese subs, could have been a response to other security threat, could have been on alert due to heightened threats abroad. Could have been a million things.

"Something" happened last night as we were listening, but we dont know for sure what that "something" was.

Telling people we had just started a war and that they were sending launch codes without context for many of the people who were watching and have no background in that stuff was fear mongering. There were a lot of panicked people in that chat last night.
 

Echo 5

Funniest guy on TB2K
They did, but the problem was assuming what that "real world" event was. Saying it was launch codes to fire on Iran may or may not have been true. Could have been looking for Russian or Chinese subs, could have been a response to other security threat, could have been on alert due to heightened threats abroad. Could have been a million things.

"Something" happened last night as we were listening, but we dont know for sure what that "something" was.

Telling people we had just started a war and that they were sending launch codes without context for many of the people who were watching and have no background in that stuff was fear mongering. There were a lot of panicked people in that chat last night.
Yeah, last night was intense.
 

Echo 5

Funniest guy on TB2K
That's intentional. Apparently, he does this occasionally. I was following on another site last nite. Anyone that disagrees with "It's an Emergency RIGHT NOW!" is banned from his YouTube chat. It's all about the views/clicks/$$$.
Not him. The traffic.
 

jward

passin' thru
Thanks for that explainer; It seemed clear to me he was tryin' for the title o' king o' click n bait, and I couldn't understand why we were even addressing his material- I've never watched prepping videos either, though, so again am in no position to judge his info there either.
:: shrug ::


On NYPrepper...

He's been in my feed off & on for years. He has some good prepping videos. Those are often worth watching, especially for those newer to prepping. However, if you look thru his history he almost always has an "Emergency Alert" or a "Red Alert" going. The reports of being a DEFCON 2, doomsday planes, EAMs, leaders heading to the bunkers, and missiles are about to fly are all mainstays of his channel and happening a couple of time almost every week... for years now.

When it comes to how he reports the "news" NYPrepper is in the same category as KLW News & Canadian Prepper. Getting eyeballs on videos YouTube pays wells and is big business, fear drives eyeballs, and business is good.

On the more level headed reporting side, I've been following & chatting (off & on) with the folks at EAM.Watch for quite some time. They have been recording & documenting EAMs, Skymasters, & Skykings for a long time. One of those members ended up setting up a YouTube feed, integrating HAM receivers to the internet: NEET Intel.

NEET Intel Youtube channel is: https://www.youtube.com/@neetintel

NEET Intel comes on an talks from time to time during the live feeds, but most of the time it is just tuned to the various channels that EAMs use, like 8992.

But, NEET Intel discusses in a very level headed way, must of the EAM related things going on. Such as the multiple Skymaster messages that went out yesterday, which was being reported by NYPrepper as "extremely serious". NEET Intel explained that in April 2023, Skymaster did a pattern of broadcasts over a couple of weeks that was very similar to the ones in this April. So much so, that NEET Intel predicted that there would be multiple Skymaster message in the coming days a few days ago -- and was right.

If you are interested in EAMs, I'd recommend checking out NEET Intel. Although, be forewarned, it is a very calming environment that is not likely to make you freak out and go out and buy a bunch of prepping equipment from sponsors.
 

jward

passin' thru
knives in backs of friends seems to be the American specialty : (

FJ
@Natsecjeff

This proves beyond any doubt that Biden admin's "concerns" about an Israeli op in Rafah were always complete BS. Biden was simply more concerned about the domestic political situation in the US and winning Michigan. Now that there's a real possibility of a big regional war breaking out with the potential to suck in the US, the Biden admin has given up its opposition against the Rafah op.

These are the people who are running US these days. With friends like these.....
View: https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1780963097941028994
 

jward

passin' thru
Israel Kicks A**
@Israelkicksass

The head of investigations in internal security of Hamas in the Beit Hanun area was eliminated

Following operational information gathered, an Air Force aircraft attacked and killed this week, the terrorist Yosef Rafik Ahmed Shabat.

1:41 AM · Apr 18, 2024
755
Views
 

jward

passin' thru
Omar Abu Layla
@OALD24



A reckless escalation by Hezbollah militia targeting various areas under Israeli control (Galilee, and others).

It seems we are facing a heated night from both sides.

I wouldn't be surprised if Israel expands the areas targeted in airstrikes inside Lebanon.
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2:10 PM · Apr 18, 2024
13.5K
Views


Omar Abu Layla
@OALD24


EXCLUSIVE:

Unprecedented disappearance of first-tier leaders in the militias of the #IRGC and Hezbollah in eastern Syria. Available information suggests that Israeli retaliation will likely involve intense airstrikes directly targeting all headquarters in Al-Bukamal, Al-Mayadin, and DeirEzzor in northeastern Syria.

4:07 AM · Apr 18, 2024
51.1K
Views
 

jward

passin' thru
there has been another significant amount of military equipment being sent/distributed to the Us bases in NES, so maybe that's where the party will get started. :: shrug ::


FJ
@Natsecjeff

I think the options for Israel right now are clear:

- Respond with limited strikes (maybe some in Iran, but mostly in third countries like Syria, Lebanon, Iraq) and let IRI think Israel has responded.

- Start Rafah op with int'l support. Wipe out Hamas militarily from Gaza.

- Once Gaza is taken care of, start a widescale military campaign against IRI and its proxies.

9:22 AM · Apr 18, 2024
9,942
Views
 

jward

passin' thru
OSINTdefender
@sentdefender

Senior Officials with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia have reportedly told the United States that they require the same Security Guarantees that the U.S. has with Israel if they are expected to Increase their Participation with the Regional Alliance.
 

Housecarl

On TB every waking moment
It could be a fifty years in the future; there is no significant sword waving between them other than some faction squabbling in Syria, Iraq, and a few other places. I don't see any of that escalating into open warfare. Now, should Iran get wiped out, or heavily damaged in a large Regional War, that Turkey more or less sits out; that could change dramatically.

Looking back over the last two hundred years I gotta say, all in all, there was more "peace" in the M.E. when the Ottoman Empire was still a Power than the area is today. Don't get me wrong, I'm still pissed they took and have kept Constantinople, :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: (not kidding, I am).

Sure, there are thousands of local examples where that can be argued against, but I did say all in all. Had the Turks not taken the Austro-Hungarian side in WWI it is possible they would still rule most of the M.E.

"While Western Europeans generally viewed them as a threat, many historians regard the Ottoman Empire as a source of great regional stability and security, as well as important achievements in the arts, science, religion and culture."

The Turks have more to loose being "kinetic" via proxies than Iran though they have them in Syria. However AKP dealings with Daesh/ISIS in Iraq and Syria and "Grey Wolves" getting caught "messing around" in Azerbaijan a few years ago shows they're not above going there, just that they're more selective.
 

jward

passin' thru
IntelSky
@Intel_Sky

Israeli Channel 14 reports:
"Heightened alert on the Lebanon front. The security establishment estimates that Hezbollah is heading towards a much broader confrontation, possibly in the coming days, due to delays in the deal in the south, and the Israeli response against Iran."

2:45 PM · Apr 18, 2024
4,920
Views
 
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