mzkitty
I give up.
Last edited:
INTL Possible rebel takeover in Syria (reportedly ISIS)
- Thread starter mzkitty
- Start date
Knoxville's Joker
Has No Life - Lives on TB
And what does this change in power mean really politically?
Knoxville's Joker
Has No Life - Lives on TB
OK based on this they want Iran the hell out of their country and want it stricly under islamic rule. They do not have a stated policy stance on israel. This means this is a pro nationalist group.
www.csis.org
Figure 1: Fighters from HTS train in Idlib Province, Syria.
Photo: OMAR HAJ KADOUR/AFP/Getty Images
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS or the “Organization for the Liberation of the Levant”) traces its beginnings to the outset of the Syrian civil war and has remained a dangerous opposition force throughout the duration of the conflict. In May 2018, the group was added to the State Department’s existing designation of its predecessor, the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Today, HTS can be thought of as a relatively localized Syrian terrorist organization, which retains a Salafi-jihadist ideology despite its public split from al-Qaeda in 2017. This backgrounder provides an overview of the history, leadership, and current strategic goals of HTS.
Today, HTS maintains that it is “an independent entity that follows no organization or party, al-Qaeda or others” and has gone so far as to arrest al-Qaeda-linked individuals in the territories under its control to prove that no allegiance exists.[7] Despite these claims, the U.S. government believes that a link between the two groups remains, even calling HTS a “vehicle to advance [al-Qaeda’s] position in the Syrian uprising and to further its own goals” in its FTO designation.[8] Recent reporting by the United Nations seems to confirm that, at the very least, some communication remains: HTS “and its components still maintain contact with Al-Qaida leadership” according to several state intelligence services.[9]
To this end, al-Jolani has promoted a multi-pronged strategy. The first stage, which HTS claimed to have completed in August 2018, was the removal of “Iranian militias and the militants from the towns of Fu'a and Kafriya, who were a threat to the entire region and an incentive for sectarian mobilization, and which the regime exploits to achieve its goals.”[12] The second stage, which remains ongoing as of October 2018, is a campaign against the Islamic State and its allies in Syria, who al-Jolani has decried as “destabilizing.”[13] The third stage is one of entrenchment, or “fortifying and defending” northern Syria in order to prevent the loss of further territory.[14] Complementing this military strategy is a political one, in which HTS pursues unity amongst jihadist groups in Syria—referring to this unity as “one solid rank”—while maintaining a policy of “no negotiations” or reconciliation with the Assad regime.[15]
Remote Visualization
Figure 2 HTS Activity 2017-2018[16]
Remote Visualization
Figure 3: Number of HTS-Linked Violent Incidents per Month[20]
Throughout 2018, however, HTS suffered several setbacks, including the aforementioned disavowal by al-Qaeda’s central leadership as well as large-scale losses of territory, faltering local support, assassinations of key leaders, and significant defections in its ranks.[21] Moving forward, HTS’s future is uncertain. Turkey has pressured the group to dissolve and join a larger Turkish-backed opposition coalition, though HTS leaders have remarked that “matters relating to the organizational structure of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham are non-negotiable.”[22] The group also faces an assault by the Syrian regime and its allies, including Russia, in Idlib. Finally, HTS has numerous competitors among the Syrian opposition, including from the National Liberation Front, which includes groups like Ahrar al-Sham, Jaysh al-Ahrar, and Suqour al-Sham.
This terrorism backgrounder was compiled by Danika Newlee with assistance from the CSIS iDeas Lab.
©2018 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved
[1] Rao Komar and Christiaan Triebert, “Jabhat Fateh al-Sham’s Income and Resources.” Hate Speech International, August 15, 2016, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham’s income and resources | Hate Speech International.
[2] See, for example, Hassan Hassan, “Jabhat Al Nusra and Al Qaeda: The Riddle, the Ruse and the Reality,” The National, November 1, 2017; Abdul Raheem Attun, “A Comprehensive History—How Jabhat al Nusra Broke its Ties with Al Qaeda,” Al- Maqalaat, al-maqalaat.com/2017/12/01/7/.
[3] Seth Jones et al., “Al Qaeda’s Struggling Campaign in Syria,” (Washington, DC: CSIS, April 2018), Al Qaeda’s Struggling Campaign in Syria.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Charles Lister, “How al-Qa’ida Lost Control of its Syrian Affiliate: The Inside Story,” CTC Sentinel 11, issue 2 (February 2018): 6, https://ctc.usma.edu/al-qaida-lost-control-syrian-affiliate-inside-story/.
[6] Ayman al-Zawahiri, “Let Us Fight Them with a Solid Structure,” As-Sahab Media Foundation, released in November 2017; See also SITE Intelligence Group, “AQ Leader Zawahiri Gives First Public Rejection of Nusra Front Split,” November 28, 2017, https://news.siteintelgroup.com/Jih...st-public-rejection-of-nusra-front-split.html.
[7] “HTS Condemns U.S. Terror Designation, Demands Evidence of AQ Link,” SITE Intelligence Group, June 1, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/hts-condemns-u-s-terror-designation-demands-evidence-of-aq-link.html.
[8] “Amendments to the Terrorist Designations of al-Nusrah Front,” United States Department of State, May 31, 2018, https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/05/282880.htm.
[9] “Twenty-second report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted pursuant to resolution 2368 (2017) concerning ISIL (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals and entities,” United Nations Security Council, July 27, 2018, S/2018/705.
[10] “HTS Leader Julani Rallies Fighters with Speech in Idlib, Declares Jerusalem As Objective,” SITE Intelligence Group, January 29, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Multimedia/hts-leader-julani-rallies-fighters-with-speech-in-idlib-declares-jerusalem-as-objective.html.
[11] “HTS Condemns U.S. Terror Designation, Demands Evidence of AQ Link,” Site Intelligence Group, June 1, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/hts-condemns-u-s-terror-designation-demands-evidence-of-aq-link.html.
[12] “HTS Leader Julani Decries Negotiations with Enemy in Eid Al-Adha Speech, Assures Fighters Will Defend Positions in North,” Site Intelligence Group, August 22, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/hts-leader-julani-decries-negotiations-with-enemy-in-eid-al-adha-speech-assures-fighters-will-defend-positions-in-north.html.
[13] Ibid.
[14] Ibid.
[15] Ibid.
[16] Data from Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre, updated September 2018, https://janes.ihs.com.
[17] Data from the CSIS Transnational Threats Project’s 2018 report, The Evolving Terror Threat (forthcoming).
[18] Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, updated September 15, 2018, Data - ACLED.
[19] Seth Jones et al., “Al Qaeda’s Struggling Campaign in Syria.”
[20] Ibid.
[21] See, for example, Seth Jones et al., “Al Qaeda’s Struggling Campaign in Syria.”
[22] Aaron Y. Zelin, “English translation of the HTS-al-Jazeera interview,” May 31, 2018, 6:20 a.m., View: https://twitter.com/azelin/status/1002178040905043968
.
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) | Terrorism Backgrounders | CSIS
TNT Terrorism Backgrounder
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
TNT Terrorism BackgrounderFigure 1: Fighters from HTS train in Idlib Province, Syria.
Photo: OMAR HAJ KADOUR/AFP/Getty Images
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS or the “Organization for the Liberation of the Levant”) traces its beginnings to the outset of the Syrian civil war and has remained a dangerous opposition force throughout the duration of the conflict. In May 2018, the group was added to the State Department’s existing designation of its predecessor, the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Today, HTS can be thought of as a relatively localized Syrian terrorist organization, which retains a Salafi-jihadist ideology despite its public split from al-Qaeda in 2017. This backgrounder provides an overview of the history, leadership, and current strategic goals of HTS.
Formation and Relationship with al-Qaeda
As mentioned above, Jabhat al-Nusra, HTS’s precursor organization, was formed in Syria in 2011 as al-Qaeda’s affiliate within the opposition to the Assad regime. Nusra’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, quickly established a capable organization, which secured its own donors in the Persian Gulf, collected revenue from taxation and asset seizures in the territories under its control, became adept at conducting insurgent attacks, and attracted a growing number of fighters.[1] Jabhat al-Nusra maintained its ties to al-Qaeda even after al-Qaeda’s highly publicized split with the Islamic State, whose leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, had been instrumental in Jabhat al-Nusra’s initial establishment. In late July 2016, however, al-Jolani announced the dissolution of Jabhat al-Nusra and the establishment of a new group, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. The group no longer had “external ties” with al-Qaeda, which many analysts suggested was an indication that while al-Jolani had formally severed its public relationship with al-Qaeda, the group would, in theory, continue to have a secret relationship with al-Qaeda and receive strategic and operational guidance.[2] However, al-Jolani’s announcement was undertaken without consulting Ayman al-Zawahiri, the emir of al-Qaeda, and created significant tension within the organization.[3]In late January 2017, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham rebranded yet again when it merged with several other groups—Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki, Liwa al-Haq, Jaysh al-Sunna, and Jabhat Ansar al-Din—to establish HTS. At this point, statements and communications from al-Qaeda’s leadership viewed HTS as an independent Salafi-jihadist organization that had illegally broken away from al-Qaeda and shattered its oath of allegiance.[4] Several prominent jihadists left HTS altogether and publicly criticized the group for sowing division (or fitna) and breaking their bayat to al-Zawahiri.[5] Al-Zawahiri himself made several statements opposing the merger, which he said was “a violation of the covenant” that “did not achieve what they sought of unity” and was never sanctioned by al-Qaeda’s leadership.[6]
Today, HTS maintains that it is “an independent entity that follows no organization or party, al-Qaeda or others” and has gone so far as to arrest al-Qaeda-linked individuals in the territories under its control to prove that no allegiance exists.[7] Despite these claims, the U.S. government believes that a link between the two groups remains, even calling HTS a “vehicle to advance [al-Qaeda’s] position in the Syrian uprising and to further its own goals” in its FTO designation.[8] Recent reporting by the United Nations seems to confirm that, at the very least, some communication remains: HTS “and its components still maintain contact with Al-Qaida leadership” according to several state intelligence services.[9]
Leadership and Strategy
Today, HTS remains under the leadership of Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, but the group’s goals have shifted somewhat since announcing its independence from al-Qaeda. Though al-Jolani’s public statements do occasionally suggest broader aims (e.g., “With this spirit… we will not only reach Damascus, but, Allah permitting, Jerusalem will be awaiting our arrival”[10]), the far-reaching “global caliphate” rhetoric favored by al-Qaeda is largely absent in HTS publications today. Instead, the group is locally focused, with its primary objective being the establishment of Islamic rule in Syria via “toppling the criminal [Assad] regime and expelling the Iranian militias.”[11]To this end, al-Jolani has promoted a multi-pronged strategy. The first stage, which HTS claimed to have completed in August 2018, was the removal of “Iranian militias and the militants from the towns of Fu'a and Kafriya, who were a threat to the entire region and an incentive for sectarian mobilization, and which the regime exploits to achieve its goals.”[12] The second stage, which remains ongoing as of October 2018, is a campaign against the Islamic State and its allies in Syria, who al-Jolani has decried as “destabilizing.”[13] The third stage is one of entrenchment, or “fortifying and defending” northern Syria in order to prevent the loss of further territory.[14] Complementing this military strategy is a political one, in which HTS pursues unity amongst jihadist groups in Syria—referring to this unity as “one solid rank”—while maintaining a policy of “no negotiations” or reconciliation with the Assad regime.[15]
Remote Visualization
Figure 2 HTS Activity 2017-2018[16]
Operations and Tactics
According to the CSIS Transnational Threats Project’s recent report on Salafi-jihadist groups, HTS has a fighting force of between 12,000 and 15,000 militants as of October 2018.[17] The group is principally located in Syria’s Idlib province, though it has enjoyed an operational presence in Syria’s Aleppo, Hama, Dera’a, and Damascus provinces, as highlighted in Figure 2 above. Though HTS is known as a terrorist organization, the vast majority of the “violent events” attributed to the group fall in line with its anti-government, anti-Iranian, and anti-Islamic State strategy: 1,786 such incidents were classified by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) Project as battles against the Syrian regime or other militants, while only 99 were classified as “violence against civilians.”[18] As the figure below highlights, levels of HTS violence have ebbed and flowed, but since the group’s formation in March 2017, it has consistently averaged at least one violent incident per day. Although the group’s operational focus has become more localized, its predecessor Jabhat al-Nusra provided sanctuary to operatives like Muhsin al-Fadli and Abdul Mohsen Abdullah Ibrahim al-Sharikh that plotted attacks in the West.[19]Remote Visualization
Figure 3: Number of HTS-Linked Violent Incidents per Month[20]
Throughout 2018, however, HTS suffered several setbacks, including the aforementioned disavowal by al-Qaeda’s central leadership as well as large-scale losses of territory, faltering local support, assassinations of key leaders, and significant defections in its ranks.[21] Moving forward, HTS’s future is uncertain. Turkey has pressured the group to dissolve and join a larger Turkish-backed opposition coalition, though HTS leaders have remarked that “matters relating to the organizational structure of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham are non-negotiable.”[22] The group also faces an assault by the Syrian regime and its allies, including Russia, in Idlib. Finally, HTS has numerous competitors among the Syrian opposition, including from the National Liberation Front, which includes groups like Ahrar al-Sham, Jaysh al-Ahrar, and Suqour al-Sham.
This terrorism backgrounder was compiled by Danika Newlee with assistance from the CSIS iDeas Lab.
©2018 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved
[1] Rao Komar and Christiaan Triebert, “Jabhat Fateh al-Sham’s Income and Resources.” Hate Speech International, August 15, 2016, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham’s income and resources | Hate Speech International.
[2] See, for example, Hassan Hassan, “Jabhat Al Nusra and Al Qaeda: The Riddle, the Ruse and the Reality,” The National, November 1, 2017; Abdul Raheem Attun, “A Comprehensive History—How Jabhat al Nusra Broke its Ties with Al Qaeda,” Al- Maqalaat, al-maqalaat.com/2017/12/01/7/.
[3] Seth Jones et al., “Al Qaeda’s Struggling Campaign in Syria,” (Washington, DC: CSIS, April 2018), Al Qaeda’s Struggling Campaign in Syria.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Charles Lister, “How al-Qa’ida Lost Control of its Syrian Affiliate: The Inside Story,” CTC Sentinel 11, issue 2 (February 2018): 6, https://ctc.usma.edu/al-qaida-lost-control-syrian-affiliate-inside-story/.
[6] Ayman al-Zawahiri, “Let Us Fight Them with a Solid Structure,” As-Sahab Media Foundation, released in November 2017; See also SITE Intelligence Group, “AQ Leader Zawahiri Gives First Public Rejection of Nusra Front Split,” November 28, 2017, https://news.siteintelgroup.com/Jih...st-public-rejection-of-nusra-front-split.html.
[7] “HTS Condemns U.S. Terror Designation, Demands Evidence of AQ Link,” SITE Intelligence Group, June 1, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/hts-condemns-u-s-terror-designation-demands-evidence-of-aq-link.html.
[8] “Amendments to the Terrorist Designations of al-Nusrah Front,” United States Department of State, May 31, 2018, https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/05/282880.htm.
[9] “Twenty-second report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted pursuant to resolution 2368 (2017) concerning ISIL (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals and entities,” United Nations Security Council, July 27, 2018, S/2018/705.
[10] “HTS Leader Julani Rallies Fighters with Speech in Idlib, Declares Jerusalem As Objective,” SITE Intelligence Group, January 29, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Multimedia/hts-leader-julani-rallies-fighters-with-speech-in-idlib-declares-jerusalem-as-objective.html.
[11] “HTS Condemns U.S. Terror Designation, Demands Evidence of AQ Link,” Site Intelligence Group, June 1, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/hts-condemns-u-s-terror-designation-demands-evidence-of-aq-link.html.
[12] “HTS Leader Julani Decries Negotiations with Enemy in Eid Al-Adha Speech, Assures Fighters Will Defend Positions in North,” Site Intelligence Group, August 22, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/hts-leader-julani-decries-negotiations-with-enemy-in-eid-al-adha-speech-assures-fighters-will-defend-positions-in-north.html.
[13] Ibid.
[14] Ibid.
[15] Ibid.
[16] Data from Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre, updated September 2018, https://janes.ihs.com.
[17] Data from the CSIS Transnational Threats Project’s 2018 report, The Evolving Terror Threat (forthcoming).
[18] Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, updated September 15, 2018, Data - ACLED.
[19] Seth Jones et al., “Al Qaeda’s Struggling Campaign in Syria.”
[20] Ibid.
[21] See, for example, Seth Jones et al., “Al Qaeda’s Struggling Campaign in Syria.”
[22] Aaron Y. Zelin, “English translation of the HTS-al-Jazeera interview,” May 31, 2018, 6:20 a.m., View: https://twitter.com/azelin/status/1002178040905043968
.
mzkitty
I give up.
Don't know yet. Assad hasn't gone anywhere.
People are twitchy though, it's suddenly trending:
View: https://fxtwitter.com/i/status/1862618665239163321
mzkitty
I give up.
I'm not planning on getting snagged by the Syria mess this time around, Just thought you'd like to know.
There's just too much these days to keep track of.
View: https://fxtwitter.com/i/status/1862651645307273257
There's just too much these days to keep track of.
View: https://fxtwitter.com/i/status/1862651645307273257
Wildweasel
F-4 Phantoms Phorever
Interestingly, at the same time I heard reports that pagers, cell phones and walkie-talkies used by rebels all over Syria went "Kaboom!" today. Who's on whose side in this mess?
mzkitty
I give up.
That's cool if true. But as for "sides" ?? Ultimately they're all muzzies of one ilk or another, *Feh*
desertvet2
Veteran Member
I sure am glad that the protestants, catholics, seventh day Adventist, Lutheran and Amish dont fight here at home.
Grumphau
Veteran Member
We all know that the Amish would defeat everyone else
Warm Wisconsin
Easy as 3.141592653589..
I have a feeling this was part of the ceasefire
Zoner
Veteran Member
A summary of what's happening tonight:
t.me
-
Aleppo has fallen to the rebels.
- The USA has launched attacks in Syria.
- Zelenskyy is ready to end the war.
- In Georgia, there is unrest against Russia.
- Turkey has stabbed Russia in the back.
- The Assad regime faces the possibility of collapse.
- There is fear of chemical weapons (present at a site inside Aleppo) falling into the hands of Sunni Jihadists linked to Al Qaeda.
- Israel's cabinet held an emergency meeting on Friday night.
- The Iranians can see the central part of their “ring of fire” strategy collapsing in Syria.
Amir Tsarfati
A summary of what's happening tonight: - ✅ Aleppo has fallen to the rebels. - ✅ The USA has launched attacks in Syria. - ✅ Zelenskyy is ready to end the war. - ✅ In Georgia, there is unrest against Russia. - ✅ Turkey has stabbed Russia in the back. - ✅ The Assad regime faces the possibility of...
t.me
-
Aleppo has fallen to the rebels.-
The USA has launched attacks in Syria.-
Zelenskyy is ready to end the war.-
In Georgia, there is unrest against Russia.-
Turkey has stabbed Russia in the back.-
The Assad regime faces the possibility of collapse.-
There is fear of chemical weapons (present at a site inside Aleppo) falling into the hands of Sunni Jihadists linked to Al Qaeda.-
Israel's cabinet held an emergency meeting on Friday night.-
The Iranians can see the central part of their “ring of fire” strategy collapsing in Syria.
Musloids doing what musloids do.
If they can't find some infidels, they'll kill each other.
If they can't find some infidels, they'll kill each other.
Knoxville's Joker
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Actually I think it is more a repudiation of Iran's interference in the running of their country...
Still musloids killing musloids.
Been going on for centuries.
It's who they are.
Any reason for a jihad.
Knoxville's Joker
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Politics is politics.
unfortunately as they are followers of Baal, violence is second nature to them.
And yes, without israel, what you say would be correct.
However, There has been a global wide movement of pro nationalists gaining power in their respective countries. That is more what I am referring to. The end result is people killing people in that part of the world...
OK based on this they want Iran the hell out of their country and want it stricly under islamic rule. They do not have a stated policy stance on israel. This means this is a pro nationalist group.
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) | Terrorism Backgrounders | CSIS
TNT Terrorism Backgrounder
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
TNT Terrorism Backgrounder
Figure 1: Fighters from HTS train in Idlib Province, Syria.
Photo: OMAR HAJ KADOUR/AFP/Getty Images
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS or the “Organization for the Liberation of the Levant”) traces its beginnings to the outset of the Syrian civil war and has remained a dangerous opposition force throughout the duration of the conflict. In May 2018, the group was added to the State Department’s existing designation of its predecessor, the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Today, HTS can be thought of as a relatively localized Syrian terrorist organization, which retains a Salafi-jihadist ideology despite its public split from al-Qaeda in 2017. This backgrounder provides an overview of the history, leadership, and current strategic goals of HTS.
Formation and Relationship with al-Qaeda
As mentioned above, Jabhat al-Nusra, HTS’s precursor organization, was formed in Syria in 2011 as al-Qaeda’s affiliate within the opposition to the Assad regime. Nusra’s leader, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, quickly established a capable organization, which secured its own donors in the Persian Gulf, collected revenue from taxation and asset seizures in the territories under its control, became adept at conducting insurgent attacks, and attracted a growing number of fighters.[1] Jabhat al-Nusra maintained its ties to al-Qaeda even after al-Qaeda’s highly publicized split with the Islamic State, whose leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, had been instrumental in Jabhat al-Nusra’s initial establishment. In late July 2016, however, al-Jolani announced the dissolution of Jabhat al-Nusra and the establishment of a new group, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. The group no longer had “external ties” with al-Qaeda, which many analysts suggested was an indication that while al-Jolani had formally severed its public relationship with al-Qaeda, the group would, in theory, continue to have a secret relationship with al-Qaeda and receive strategic and operational guidance.[2] However, al-Jolani’s announcement was undertaken without consulting Ayman al-Zawahiri, the emir of al-Qaeda, and created significant tension within the organization.[3]
In late January 2017, Jabhat Fatah al-Sham rebranded yet again when it merged with several other groups—Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki, Liwa al-Haq, Jaysh al-Sunna, and Jabhat Ansar al-Din—to establish HTS. At this point, statements and communications from al-Qaeda’s leadership viewed HTS as an independent Salafi-jihadist organization that had illegally broken away from al-Qaeda and shattered its oath of allegiance.[4] Several prominent jihadists left HTS altogether and publicly criticized the group for sowing division (or fitna) and breaking their bayat to al-Zawahiri.[5] Al-Zawahiri himself made several statements opposing the merger, which he said was “a violation of the covenant” that “did not achieve what they sought of unity” and was never sanctioned by al-Qaeda’s leadership.[6]
Today, HTS maintains that it is “an independent entity that follows no organization or party, al-Qaeda or others” and has gone so far as to arrest al-Qaeda-linked individuals in the territories under its control to prove that no allegiance exists.[7] Despite these claims, the U.S. government believes that a link between the two groups remains, even calling HTS a “vehicle to advance [al-Qaeda’s] position in the Syrian uprising and to further its own goals” in its FTO designation.[8] Recent reporting by the United Nations seems to confirm that, at the very least, some communication remains: HTS “and its components still maintain contact with Al-Qaida leadership” according to several state intelligence services.[9]
Leadership and Strategy
Today, HTS remains under the leadership of Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, but the group’s goals have shifted somewhat since announcing its independence from al-Qaeda. Though al-Jolani’s public statements do occasionally suggest broader aims (e.g., “With this spirit… we will not only reach Damascus, but, Allah permitting, Jerusalem will be awaiting our arrival”[10]), the far-reaching “global caliphate” rhetoric favored by al-Qaeda is largely absent in HTS publications today. Instead, the group is locally focused, with its primary objective being the establishment of Islamic rule in Syria via “toppling the criminal [Assad] regime and expelling the Iranian militias.”[11]
To this end, al-Jolani has promoted a multi-pronged strategy. The first stage, which HTS claimed to have completed in August 2018, was the removal of “Iranian militias and the militants from the towns of Fu'a and Kafriya, who were a threat to the entire region and an incentive for sectarian mobilization, and which the regime exploits to achieve its goals.”[12] The second stage, which remains ongoing as of October 2018, is a campaign against the Islamic State and its allies in Syria, who al-Jolani has decried as “destabilizing.”[13] The third stage is one of entrenchment, or “fortifying and defending” northern Syria in order to prevent the loss of further territory.[14] Complementing this military strategy is a political one, in which HTS pursues unity amongst jihadist groups in Syria—referring to this unity as “one solid rank”—while maintaining a policy of “no negotiations” or reconciliation with the Assad regime.[15]
Remote Visualization
Figure 2 HTS Activity 2017-2018[16]
Operations and Tactics
According to the CSIS Transnational Threats Project’s recent report on Salafi-jihadist groups, HTS has a fighting force of between 12,000 and 15,000 militants as of October 2018.[17] The group is principally located in Syria’s Idlib province, though it has enjoyed an operational presence in Syria’s Aleppo, Hama, Dera’a, and Damascus provinces, as highlighted in Figure 2 above. Though HTS is known as a terrorist organization, the vast majority of the “violent events” attributed to the group fall in line with its anti-government, anti-Iranian, and anti-Islamic State strategy: 1,786 such incidents were classified by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) Project as battles against the Syrian regime or other militants, while only 99 were classified as “violence against civilians.”[18] As the figure below highlights, levels of HTS violence have ebbed and flowed, but since the group’s formation in March 2017, it has consistently averaged at least one violent incident per day. Although the group’s operational focus has become more localized, its predecessor Jabhat al-Nusra provided sanctuary to operatives like Muhsin al-Fadli and Abdul Mohsen Abdullah Ibrahim al-Sharikh that plotted attacks in the West.[19]
Remote Visualization
Figure 3: Number of HTS-Linked Violent Incidents per Month[20]
Throughout 2018, however, HTS suffered several setbacks, including the aforementioned disavowal by al-Qaeda’s central leadership as well as large-scale losses of territory, faltering local support, assassinations of key leaders, and significant defections in its ranks.[21] Moving forward, HTS’s future is uncertain. Turkey has pressured the group to dissolve and join a larger Turkish-backed opposition coalition, though HTS leaders have remarked that “matters relating to the organizational structure of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham are non-negotiable.”[22] The group also faces an assault by the Syrian regime and its allies, including Russia, in Idlib. Finally, HTS has numerous competitors among the Syrian opposition, including from the National Liberation Front, which includes groups like Ahrar al-Sham, Jaysh al-Ahrar, and Suqour al-Sham.
This terrorism backgrounder was compiled by Danika Newlee with assistance from the CSIS iDeas Lab.
©2018 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved
[1] Rao Komar and Christiaan Triebert, “Jabhat Fateh al-Sham’s Income and Resources.” Hate Speech International, August 15, 2016, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham’s income and resources | Hate Speech International.
[2] See, for example, Hassan Hassan, “Jabhat Al Nusra and Al Qaeda: The Riddle, the Ruse and the Reality,” The National, November 1, 2017; Abdul Raheem Attun, “A Comprehensive History—How Jabhat al Nusra Broke its Ties with Al Qaeda,” Al- Maqalaat, al-maqalaat.com/2017/12/01/7/.
[3] Seth Jones et al., “Al Qaeda’s Struggling Campaign in Syria,” (Washington, DC: CSIS, April 2018), Al Qaeda’s Struggling Campaign in Syria.
[4] Ibid.
[5] Charles Lister, “How al-Qa’ida Lost Control of its Syrian Affiliate: The Inside Story,” CTC Sentinel 11, issue 2 (February 2018): 6, https://ctc.usma.edu/al-qaida-lost-control-syrian-affiliate-inside-story/.
[6] Ayman al-Zawahiri, “Let Us Fight Them with a Solid Structure,” As-Sahab Media Foundation, released in November 2017; See also SITE Intelligence Group, “AQ Leader Zawahiri Gives First Public Rejection of Nusra Front Split,” November 28, 2017, https://news.siteintelgroup.com/Jih...st-public-rejection-of-nusra-front-split.html.
[7] “HTS Condemns U.S. Terror Designation, Demands Evidence of AQ Link,” SITE Intelligence Group, June 1, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/hts-condemns-u-s-terror-designation-demands-evidence-of-aq-link.html.
[8] “Amendments to the Terrorist Designations of al-Nusrah Front,” United States Department of State, May 31, 2018, https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/05/282880.htm.
[9] “Twenty-second report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted pursuant to resolution 2368 (2017) concerning ISIL (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals and entities,” United Nations Security Council, July 27, 2018, S/2018/705.
[10] “HTS Leader Julani Rallies Fighters with Speech in Idlib, Declares Jerusalem As Objective,” SITE Intelligence Group, January 29, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Multimedia/hts-leader-julani-rallies-fighters-with-speech-in-idlib-declares-jerusalem-as-objective.html.
[11] “HTS Condemns U.S. Terror Designation, Demands Evidence of AQ Link,” Site Intelligence Group, June 1, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/hts-condemns-u-s-terror-designation-demands-evidence-of-aq-link.html.
[12] “HTS Leader Julani Decries Negotiations with Enemy in Eid Al-Adha Speech, Assures Fighters Will Defend Positions in North,” Site Intelligence Group, August 22, 2018, https://ent.siteintelgroup.com/Statements/hts-leader-julani-decries-negotiations-with-enemy-in-eid-al-adha-speech-assures-fighters-will-defend-positions-in-north.html.
[13] Ibid.
[14] Ibid.
[15] Ibid.
[16] Data from Jane’s Terrorism and Insurgency Centre, updated September 2018, https://janes.ihs.com.
[17] Data from the CSIS Transnational Threats Project’s 2018 report, The Evolving Terror Threat (forthcoming).
[18] Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, updated September 15, 2018, Data - ACLED.
[19] Seth Jones et al., “Al Qaeda’s Struggling Campaign in Syria.”
[20] Ibid.
[21] See, for example, Seth Jones et al., “Al Qaeda’s Struggling Campaign in Syria.”
[22] Aaron Y. Zelin, “English translation of the HTS-al-Jazeera interview,” May 31, 2018, 6:20 a.m., View: https://twitter.com/azelin/status/1002178040905043968
.
Hummm.......note that the root of most of these Arab formed groups go back to factionings of the Muslim Brotherhood, including Al-Qaeda. The Turkish proxy portion (in the "Great Game" between Iran and Turkey for the region and including Libya and Sudan among other places) is a whole other layer to the cake and I wonder how much slack is in their leash?
Last edited:
mzkitty
I give up.
The colors are pretty; that's about all you can say for it:
View: https://fxtwitter.com/i/status/1862897165250461765
View: https://fxtwitter.com/i/status/1862897165250461765
Plain Jane
Just Plain Jane
Russian Jets Support Syrian Counteroffensive After Jihadist Insurgents Capture Aleppo | ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
Russian Jets Support Syrian Counteroffensive After Jihadist Insurgents Capture Aleppo
by Tyler Durden
Saturday, Nov 30, 2024 - 10:28 AM
Hours after thousands of Syrian Islamic militants entered Syria's largest city of Aleppo, facing little resistance from government troops, and fanned out inside the city in vehicles with improvised armor and pickups, deploying to landmarks such as the old citadel on Saturday, Russian fighter jets stationed in Syria carried out airstrikes against the jihadist militants attacking the northern city of Aleppo, the spokesman for Moscow’s expeditionary force has said. The escalation follows after the Al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham or HTS (an offshoot of Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra) insurgent group, which was added by the US State Department to the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations in 2018, and allied militias attacked government-controlled territory in northern Syria on Wednesday, breaking a fragile truce mediated by Russia and Turkey in 2020.
View: https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1862864512468058374?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1862864512468058374%7Ctwgr%5E7760184e6296eda9d230036e4a421e566eaed46f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Frussian-jets-support-syrian-counteroffensive-after-jihadist-insurgents-capture-aleppo
“Providing support to the Syrian Arab Army, the Russian Aerospace Forces are carrying out missile and bomb strikes on the equipment and manpower of illegal armed groups, command posts, warehouses, and artillery positions of terrorists. Over the past 24 hours, at least 200 militants have been eliminated,” Colonel Oleg Ignasyuk, the deputy head of the Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria, told reporters in a briefing on Friday. He added that another 400 militants were killed by Russian and Syrian forces the day before.
A HTS rebel fighter in AleppoAlso on Saturday, Syria's armed forces said that to absorb the large attack on Aleppo - which is located 350 kilometers north of Damascus - and save lives, it has redeployed and is preparing for a counterattack. The statement acknowledged that insurgents entered large parts of the city but said they have not established bases or checkpoints.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) fighters kneel to pray in a street in AleppoTerrorists were filmed outside police headquarters, in the city center, and outside the Aleppo Citadel. They tore down posters of Syrian President Bashar Assad, stepping on some and burning others.
The surprising takeover of Aleppo following the blitz campaign is an embarrassment for Assad, who managed to regain total control of the city in 2016, after expelling insurgents and thousands of civilians from its eastern neighborhoods following a grueling military campaign in which his forces were backed by Russia, Iran and its allied groups.
Aleppo has not been attacked by opposition forces since then. The 2016 battle for Aleppo was a turning point in the war between Syrian government forces and rebel fighters after 2011 protests against Assad’s rule turned into an all-out war.
View: https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1862852466217554412?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1862852466217554412%7Ctwgr%5E7760184e6296eda9d230036e4a421e566eaed46f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Frussian-jets-support-syrian-counteroffensive-after-jihadist-insurgents-capture-aleppo
Before adopting its current name in 2017, HTS was known as Jabhat al-Nusra, and was one of the main Sunni islamist factions opposing President Bashar Assad’s government during the Syrian Civil War. Jabhat al-Nusra was originally founded as an offshoot of Al-Qaeda in Syria.
The jihadists launched their shock offensive in the Aleppo and Idlib countryside on Wednesday and wrestled control of dozens of villages and towns before entering Aleppo on Friday. The pro-government Al-Watan newspaper reported airstrikes on the edge of Aleppo city targeting rebel supply lines. It posted a video of a missile landing on a gathering of fighters and vehicles, in a street lined with trees and buildings.
The timing is remarkable: over the past decade, Syria has become a focal point of rapid foreign military escalation with the CIA-backed Islamic State emerging out of nowhere in 2014 and destabilizing the region for the next 4 years, and now - during a time of upheaval for the Deep State - it is once again Syria that is the focus of CIA escalatory tactics, this time involving another Al-Qaeda-linked terrorist organization, the HTS.
The push into Aleppo followed weeks of simmering low-level violence, including government attacks on opposition-held areas. In its amusing commentary, the AP notes that Turkey, which has openly backed Syrian opposition groups, "failed in its diplomatic efforts to prevent the Syrian government attacks", which were seen as a violation of a 2019 agreement sponsored by Russia, Turkey and Iran to freeze the line of the conflict. What the AP really means is that Turkey has once again been quietly seeking to destabilize the region and has succeeded.
The latest offensive comes as Iran-linked groups, primarily Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which has backed Syrian government forces since 2015, have been preoccupied with their own battles at home. A ceasefire in Hezbollah’s two-month war with Israel took effect Wednesday, the day the Syrian opposition factions announced their offensive. Israel has also escalated its attacks against Hezbollah and Iran-linked targets in Syria during the last 70 days.
According to social media reports, government troops remained in the city's airport and at a military academy but most of the forces have already filed out of the city from the south. Syrian Kurdish forces remained in two neighborhoods. The redeployment “is a temporary measure and (the military central command and armed forces) will work to guarantee the security and peace of all our people in Aleppo,” the military statement said.
There was light traffic in the city center on Saturday according to AP. Opposition fighters fired in the air in celebration but there was no sign of clashes or government troops presence. Earlier in the day, HTS told Al Jazeera and Türkiye’s Anadolu news agency that its fighters had entered several neighborhoods of Aleppo. The group claimed to have taken control of over 400 square kilometers of land in Aleppo and Idlib provinces and captured heavy weaponry and other equipment from the Syrian Army.
Videos shared on social media purportedly show HTS gunmen moving through Aleppo on foot and in armored vehicles.
The government in Damascus said its troops have “inflicted heavy losses” on the attackers and regained control of some areas. Local media reported the arrival of Syrian Army reinforcements to both Idlib and Aleppo on Friday. Meanwhile Russian fighter jets stationed in Syria carried out multiple airstrikes against jihadist militants attacking the northern city of Aleppo. Twenty fighters were killed in the airstrikes, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Aleppo residents reported clashes and gunfire. Some fled the fighting.
View: https://twitter.com/FARED_ALHOR/status/1862852640436031710?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1862852640436031710%7Ctwgr%5E9b19b8e69d225dd54e4d49e02052cf91a01c06b1%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Frussian-jets-support-syrian-counteroffensive-after-jihadist-insurgents-capture-aleppo
Russia intervened in the conflict in 2015, helping Assad retake much of the country from al-Nusra, the Islamic State, and dozens of US-supported armed groups described by Washington as ‘moderate rebels’.
Syrian forces lifted the nearly five-year siege of Aleppo in December 2016 and pushed al-Nusra and other groups west into Idlib province. Türkiye took responsibility for Idlib in 2018, vowing to separate terrorists from “legitimate rebels,” but never did so. A March 2020 agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was meant to permanently end the fighting around Idlib.
(More tweets at the link.)
mzkitty
I give up.
Syrian troops withdraw from Aleppo as rebels advance
58 minutes agoSyrian government forces have withdrawn from the city of Aleppo following an offensive by rebels opposed to the rule of President Bashar al-Assad.
The army acknowledged that rebels had entered "large parts" of the city, the country's second largest, but vowed to stage a counterattack.
The offensive marks the most significant fighting in Syria's civil war in recent years.
More than 300 people, including at least 20 civilians, have been killed since it began on Wednesday, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).
Speaking on Saturday, President Assad vowed to "defend [Syria's] stability and territorial integrity in the face of all terrorists and their backers".
"[The country] is capable, with the help of its allies and friends, of defeating and eliminating them, no matter how intense their terrorist attacks are," his office quoted him as saying.
The civil war, which has left around half a million people dead, began in 2011 after the Assad government responded to pro-democracy protests with a brutal crackdown.
The conflict has been largely dormant since a ceasefire agreed in 2020, but opposition forces have maintained control of the north-western city of Idlib and much of the surrounding province.
Idlib sits just 55km (34 miles) from Aleppo, which itself was a rebel stronghold until it fell to government forces in 2016.
The latest offensive has been led by a jihadist group known at Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied factions backed by Turkey.
HTS was regarded as one of the most effective and deadly of the groups fighting the Assad government and was already the dominant force in Idlib.
The rebels have taken control of Aleppo's airport and dozens of nearby towns, according to the SOHR.
They also announced a curfew which came into force at 17:00 local time (14:00 GMT) and will remain in place until Sunday.
The Syrian army said rebels had launched "a broad attack from multiple axes on the Aleppo and Idlib fronts" and that battles had taken place "over a strip exceeding 100km (60 miles)".
Dozens of its soldiers have been killed, it said.
The Russian air force, which played a significant role in keeping Assad in power during the peak of the civil war, carried out air strikes in Aleppo on Saturday.
The strikes marked the first it has staged in the city since helping Syrian government forces recapture it in 2016.
Pictures showed the roads leading out of Aleppo jammed with cars on Saturday as people tried to leave.
Syrian troops withdraw from Aleppo as rebels advance
Over 300 people have been killed since rebels launched an offensive against the government this week.
www.bbc.com
danielboon
TB Fanatic
Looks like Assad has fled to Russia
View: https://twitter.com/snwse21/status/1862614994019287437
Posted for fair use.....(for images please see article source. HC)
Follow
Nov. 30, 2024 8:26 am ET
It had taken the Syrian regime and its backers—Iran, Russia and Hezbollah—more than four years to dislodge rebel forces from the country’s second-largest city of Aleppo. At the time, in 2016, they celebrated that victory as the turning point in Syria’s civil war.
Now, a surprise rebel offensive has recaptured Aleppo in just a few days, including parts of the city that the Syrian army had never surrendered before. This stunning feat is the direct consequence of new wars that have erupted outside Syria’s borders.
“It’s a tectonic shift,” said Andrew Tabler, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who served as Syria director in the Trump White House. “Regional and international powers intervened in Syria over a decade ago, and now the conflicts of Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon all come together and overlap in Aleppo.”
Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Iranian ayatollahs’ regime are all currently embroiled in conflicts that threaten their very survival, and in which Syria is a sideshow at best. To a varying degree, all three have sustained strategic blows—while the Syrian rebels’ main backer, Turkey, has taken advantage of the turmoil.
“Russia is weakened, Iran is weakened, Hezbollah is beaten—and all this has created an enormous opportunity for Turkey, which it was quick to grab,” said Asli Aydintaşbaş, a Turkey specialist at the Brookings Institution.
At the very least, the latest developments will stem the flow of Syrian refugees into Turkey, a significant political problem there. Depending on how fighting develops in the coming weeks and months, the fall of Aleppo could also give Ankara a dominant role in Syria’s future—not necessarily a prospect that Israel would relish.
Syria’s President Bashar al Assad tried his best to keep a low profile ever since the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas turned into a regional war between Israel, Iran and Iranian proxies. Yet, that maneuvering—including a recent rapprochement with Gulf monarchies that once funded the rebels—didn’t prevent Assad’s regime from getting embroiled in the maelstrom that is reshaping the Middle East.
Hailed as a miracle in videos posted from Aleppo’s ancient citadel, the city’s fall on Friday night exceeded the Islamist-led rebels’ wildest expectations. Now, after the regime’s army collapsed or fled, other offensives are under way. Fighting in coming days will show whether the Syrian military will be able to regroup and counterattack—or will continue a chaotic retreat from other major population centers.
The most important factor behind Assad’s loss of Aleppo is the rout inflicted by Israel on Hezbollah. Equipped by Iran and Russia, the Lebanese militia used to be the most capable infantry fighting on Assad’s behalf, and was instrumental in rolling back rebel gains in the past.
But, in October last year, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah made a strategic mistake, joining the war against Israel that was kicked off by Hamas. As the Lebanese militia redeployed its weapons and forces from Syria to fight Israel, in what it believed would be a carefully calibrated campaign, it suffered nothing short of a military catastrophe.
In recent months, Israel killed most of Hezbollah’s senior leadership, including Nasrallah himself, decimated the militia’s ranks and destroyed its weapons caches in southern Lebanon and south Beirut. Following a ground invasion, Israel has forced Hezbollah, which had pledged to keep fighting until a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, into a separate cease-fire.
“Hezbollah is crippled,” said Navvar Şaban, a researcher on Syria at the Harmoon Center for Contemporary Studies in Istanbul. “This has created a huge vacuum. Though there were regime forces located in Aleppo, they were not trained, they lacked military discipline, they lacked tactics and even their retreat plan was a disaster.”
Since the Gaza war began, Iran, too, has lost some of its top Revolutionary Guard commanders in Syria and Lebanon to Israeli airstrikes. Instead of projecting strength, Iran’s retaliation against Israel—the first direct missile exchange between the two countries—resulted in the Israeli bombing of Iranian air defenses and weapons-production facilities. This was a blow to Tehran’s military power and political prestige alike.
For Russia, the 2015 intervention to rescue Assad’s regime was advertised as a major geopolitical triumph that displaced the U.S. as the Middle East’s sole dominant power. Then came the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which instead of a quick victory expected by Putin has turned into a bloody war of attrition. Regular Russian forces have taken hundreds of thousands of casualties and lost several thousand tanks and fighting vehicles since then. The Wagner paramilitary group, which had played a critical role in Syria, has been destroyed, its leadership killed in the wake of last year’s failed putsch against Putin.
The Russian air force, indispensable for the survival of Assad, hasn’t been as degraded as Russian ground troops in Ukraine, but it too has lost a significant part of its firepower and operates at a fraction of its former strength in Syria. According to open-source analysts at the Oryx consultancy, some 117 Russian warplanes were destroyed in nearly three years of the Ukrainian war, and 15 more damaged.
While the Russian air force carried out a series of bombing runs in Syria in recent days, these strikes were limited and didn’t do much to halt the rebel advances. “The Russians are very, very busy in Ukraine, and that’s a big part of it,” said Mouaz Moustafa, executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, a group that advocates for democracy in Syria. “Thank God for the Ukrainians.”
The current rebel offensive in Aleppo was led by the Hayat Tahrir al Sham, or HTS, an Islamist militia coalition that enjoys Turkish backing. Its key leaders include Islamist fighters once associated with the Nusra Front, a one-time Syrian affiliate of al Qaeda. Though the HTS leadership has publicly disavowed al Qaeda, the group remains classified as a terrorist organization by the U.S. government. Unlike the rebel forces of a decade ago, HTS units involved in the current offensive appeared well-trained and well-armed. They also heavily relied on the drone technology that has been developed during the war in Ukraine.
In an effort to avoid the mistakes of the past and project the image of moderation, HTS military commander Abu Mohammad al Jawlani urged his Sunni Islamist followers to avoid harming Shiites and other minorities, and to maintain order in the city. “Aleppo has always been—and remains— a meeting place of civilizations and cultures, with a long history of cultural and religious diversity,” his edict said.
While the HTS rebels—and their Turkish patrons—benefited from the Israeli strikes on Hezbollah and sites in Iran and Syria, the timing of the Aleppo offensive was likely tied to the cease-fire just reached in Lebanon.
“The militants have been ready for a while. And my guess is it’s the Turks who have been holding them back,” said Robert Ford, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria and a fellow at the Middle East Institute. “But now, once the Lebanon cease-fire is done, the attack on Aleppo doesn’t look anymore like Turkey fighting an enemy of Israel.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been among the most vociferous critics of Israel, hosting leaders of Hamas and curtailing trade and diplomatic ties with Israel after tens of thousands of Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces.
Still, the Aleppo offensive was seen with satisfaction, if not outright gloating, by many in Israel. “It’s a net positive for Israel,” said Nadav Pollak, a former Israeli intelligence official who teaches at Reichman University in Israel. “The Iran-Hezbollah-Syria axis suffered heavy blows in recent months, and this adds another significant blow, which forces all members of the axis to focus on another theater that is not Israel.”
As for Russia, the rebels entering Aleppo quickly appealed to Moscow to reconsider its role, and its interests, in Syria. “The Syrian revolution has never been directed against any nation or people, including Russia,” said a statement by the HTS-led rebel administration. “It is not a party to what is happening in the Russo-Ukrainian war.”
At the same time, the rebels—whose ranks include Russian-speaking Islamists from the Caucasus and Central Asia—posted online videos of themselves killing Russian soldiers in the outskirts of Aleppo and tearing down portraits of Putin in Syrian government offices.
Write to Yaroslav Trofimov at yaroslav.trofimov@wsj.com
Setbacks for Russia, Iran and Hezbollah Turn Into a Catastrophe for Syria’s Assad
The loss of Aleppo to Islamist rebels represents a stunning defeat for the Syrian regime, highlighting its dependence on enfeebled allies
By Yaroslav TrofimovFollow
Nov. 30, 2024 8:26 am ET
It had taken the Syrian regime and its backers—Iran, Russia and Hezbollah—more than four years to dislodge rebel forces from the country’s second-largest city of Aleppo. At the time, in 2016, they celebrated that victory as the turning point in Syria’s civil war.
Now, a surprise rebel offensive has recaptured Aleppo in just a few days, including parts of the city that the Syrian army had never surrendered before. This stunning feat is the direct consequence of new wars that have erupted outside Syria’s borders.
“It’s a tectonic shift,” said Andrew Tabler, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who served as Syria director in the Trump White House. “Regional and international powers intervened in Syria over a decade ago, and now the conflicts of Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon all come together and overlap in Aleppo.”
Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Iranian ayatollahs’ regime are all currently embroiled in conflicts that threaten their very survival, and in which Syria is a sideshow at best. To a varying degree, all three have sustained strategic blows—while the Syrian rebels’ main backer, Turkey, has taken advantage of the turmoil.
“Russia is weakened, Iran is weakened, Hezbollah is beaten—and all this has created an enormous opportunity for Turkey, which it was quick to grab,” said Asli Aydintaşbaş, a Turkey specialist at the Brookings Institution.
At the very least, the latest developments will stem the flow of Syrian refugees into Turkey, a significant political problem there. Depending on how fighting develops in the coming weeks and months, the fall of Aleppo could also give Ankara a dominant role in Syria’s future—not necessarily a prospect that Israel would relish.
Syria’s President Bashar al Assad tried his best to keep a low profile ever since the Oct. 7, 2023, attack by Hamas turned into a regional war between Israel, Iran and Iranian proxies. Yet, that maneuvering—including a recent rapprochement with Gulf monarchies that once funded the rebels—didn’t prevent Assad’s regime from getting embroiled in the maelstrom that is reshaping the Middle East.
Hailed as a miracle in videos posted from Aleppo’s ancient citadel, the city’s fall on Friday night exceeded the Islamist-led rebels’ wildest expectations. Now, after the regime’s army collapsed or fled, other offensives are under way. Fighting in coming days will show whether the Syrian military will be able to regroup and counterattack—or will continue a chaotic retreat from other major population centers.
The most important factor behind Assad’s loss of Aleppo is the rout inflicted by Israel on Hezbollah. Equipped by Iran and Russia, the Lebanese militia used to be the most capable infantry fighting on Assad’s behalf, and was instrumental in rolling back rebel gains in the past.
But, in October last year, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah made a strategic mistake, joining the war against Israel that was kicked off by Hamas. As the Lebanese militia redeployed its weapons and forces from Syria to fight Israel, in what it believed would be a carefully calibrated campaign, it suffered nothing short of a military catastrophe.
In recent months, Israel killed most of Hezbollah’s senior leadership, including Nasrallah himself, decimated the militia’s ranks and destroyed its weapons caches in southern Lebanon and south Beirut. Following a ground invasion, Israel has forced Hezbollah, which had pledged to keep fighting until a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, into a separate cease-fire.
“Hezbollah is crippled,” said Navvar Şaban, a researcher on Syria at the Harmoon Center for Contemporary Studies in Istanbul. “This has created a huge vacuum. Though there were regime forces located in Aleppo, they were not trained, they lacked military discipline, they lacked tactics and even their retreat plan was a disaster.”
Since the Gaza war began, Iran, too, has lost some of its top Revolutionary Guard commanders in Syria and Lebanon to Israeli airstrikes. Instead of projecting strength, Iran’s retaliation against Israel—the first direct missile exchange between the two countries—resulted in the Israeli bombing of Iranian air defenses and weapons-production facilities. This was a blow to Tehran’s military power and political prestige alike.
For Russia, the 2015 intervention to rescue Assad’s regime was advertised as a major geopolitical triumph that displaced the U.S. as the Middle East’s sole dominant power. Then came the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which instead of a quick victory expected by Putin has turned into a bloody war of attrition. Regular Russian forces have taken hundreds of thousands of casualties and lost several thousand tanks and fighting vehicles since then. The Wagner paramilitary group, which had played a critical role in Syria, has been destroyed, its leadership killed in the wake of last year’s failed putsch against Putin.
The Russian air force, indispensable for the survival of Assad, hasn’t been as degraded as Russian ground troops in Ukraine, but it too has lost a significant part of its firepower and operates at a fraction of its former strength in Syria. According to open-source analysts at the Oryx consultancy, some 117 Russian warplanes were destroyed in nearly three years of the Ukrainian war, and 15 more damaged.
While the Russian air force carried out a series of bombing runs in Syria in recent days, these strikes were limited and didn’t do much to halt the rebel advances. “The Russians are very, very busy in Ukraine, and that’s a big part of it,” said Mouaz Moustafa, executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force, a group that advocates for democracy in Syria. “Thank God for the Ukrainians.”
The current rebel offensive in Aleppo was led by the Hayat Tahrir al Sham, or HTS, an Islamist militia coalition that enjoys Turkish backing. Its key leaders include Islamist fighters once associated with the Nusra Front, a one-time Syrian affiliate of al Qaeda. Though the HTS leadership has publicly disavowed al Qaeda, the group remains classified as a terrorist organization by the U.S. government. Unlike the rebel forces of a decade ago, HTS units involved in the current offensive appeared well-trained and well-armed. They also heavily relied on the drone technology that has been developed during the war in Ukraine.
In an effort to avoid the mistakes of the past and project the image of moderation, HTS military commander Abu Mohammad al Jawlani urged his Sunni Islamist followers to avoid harming Shiites and other minorities, and to maintain order in the city. “Aleppo has always been—and remains— a meeting place of civilizations and cultures, with a long history of cultural and religious diversity,” his edict said.
While the HTS rebels—and their Turkish patrons—benefited from the Israeli strikes on Hezbollah and sites in Iran and Syria, the timing of the Aleppo offensive was likely tied to the cease-fire just reached in Lebanon.
“The militants have been ready for a while. And my guess is it’s the Turks who have been holding them back,” said Robert Ford, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria and a fellow at the Middle East Institute. “But now, once the Lebanon cease-fire is done, the attack on Aleppo doesn’t look anymore like Turkey fighting an enemy of Israel.”
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been among the most vociferous critics of Israel, hosting leaders of Hamas and curtailing trade and diplomatic ties with Israel after tens of thousands of Palestinians were killed by Israeli forces.
Still, the Aleppo offensive was seen with satisfaction, if not outright gloating, by many in Israel. “It’s a net positive for Israel,” said Nadav Pollak, a former Israeli intelligence official who teaches at Reichman University in Israel. “The Iran-Hezbollah-Syria axis suffered heavy blows in recent months, and this adds another significant blow, which forces all members of the axis to focus on another theater that is not Israel.”
As for Russia, the rebels entering Aleppo quickly appealed to Moscow to reconsider its role, and its interests, in Syria. “The Syrian revolution has never been directed against any nation or people, including Russia,” said a statement by the HTS-led rebel administration. “It is not a party to what is happening in the Russo-Ukrainian war.”
At the same time, the rebels—whose ranks include Russian-speaking Islamists from the Caucasus and Central Asia—posted online videos of themselves killing Russian soldiers in the outskirts of Aleppo and tearing down portraits of Putin in Syrian government offices.
Write to Yaroslav Trofimov at yaroslav.trofimov@wsj.com
Heliobas Disciple
TB Fanatic
Back when 0bama was doing his "Arab Spring" toppling of Arab governments (Libya, Egypt, etc), Syria was supposedly on his list but it wasn't accomplished during his official term. His 3rd unofficial term is about to come to an end. hmm...?
See the video in this tweet from a few years back, when Trump was still president, discussing this.
2 min 6 sec
View: https://twitter.com/_/status/1862934557332304075
This whole thing can go sideways so fast...
HD
See the video in this tweet from a few years back, when Trump was still president, discussing this.
2 min 6 sec
View: https://twitter.com/_/status/1862934557332304075
Jack Poso @ JackPosobiec
1:59 PM Nov 30, 2024
Here is Professor Jeffrey Sachs on Morning Joe calmly explaining how 0bama deployed the Brennan CIA in a regime change op to being the Syrian Civil War that led to the rise of ISIS.
Also, if Assad loses control of Syria, will we see Israeli involvement for their own self interests? They border Israel to the north.This whole thing can go sideways so fast...
HD
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FreedomoftheHills
Contributing Member
I strongly suspect that what we're seeing right now is due to direct Israeli and US intelligence involvement. The attack on Assad has less to do with Syria than it does with the wider geopolitical picture in the region. This appears to be another parting gift of the Blinken administration.
jward
passin' thru
Open Source Intel
@Osint613
BREAKING
Syrian rebels have breached into President Assad’s palace. @N12News
View: https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/1863246333953376300
rt 3m44s
@Osint613
BREAKING
Syrian rebels have breached into President Assad’s palace. @N12News
View: https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/1863246333953376300
rt 3m44s
jward
passin' thru
♛ ✡︎
@NiohBerg
No, seriously.
If Bashar Assad's regime collapses, the entire power dynamic of the region shifts. Khamenei will quickly lose his Axis, and the IRGC will shrink in size and influence.
This will ultimately weaken the regime in Iran and make it easier to overthrow the mullahs.
Unfortunately, we might also see a fanatical sunni "caliphate" rise in Syria, with minority groups wiped out and more even more tragedy. This depends on which faction comes out on top there, since they greatly vary in how extreme they are.
Dangerous, fast moving times.
Corathys
@Corathys
The Arab Spring launched the Middle East’s Thirty Years’ War.
#Syria has become the central battleground, much like the Holy Roman Empire was in Europe’s conflict.
It’s driven by deep sectarian divides (sunni vs. shia), proxy wars fueled by external powers (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the US, and Russia), and a relentless cycle of destruction and instability.
This war isn’t just about religion — it’s also a battleground for ethnic, political, and economic struggles. If history is any guide, these wars won’t end quickly, and their fallout will shape the region for decades. A Westphalian peace counterpart is nowhere on the horizon.
Corathys
@Corathys
What would Iran do with this situation in #Syria ?
Over the past few months, they’ve lost all their proxies. Hamas might be a manageable loss, but Hezbollah’s weakening must hurt them deeply. If Assad falls, their entire power play collapses, and Turkey and Saudi Arabia take over the region. They would lose the remaining strongholds of the Shia Crescent. This would not only isolate Iran but also embolden its rivals, leaving the regime vulnerable both externally and internally.
I don’t think they can afford to sit by and watch this happen. The question is, what would weaken the regime more: being visibly pushed out of the entire region, losing face and their remaining influence, and licking their wounds within their borders, or trying to show force, which could end in failure? Either option could potentially result in disaster for the Iranian regime.
4:14 PM · Nov 30, 2024
366
Views
♛ ✡︎
@NiohBerg
I have a theory to explain why the regime in Iran isn't going to save Assad. It's probably accurate.
The regime, despite all its barking, is TERRIFIED of sending the IRGC into a conventional war. This is the main reason for building their Arab proxies, which act as meatshield while the IRGC sits back in relative safety.
They fundamentally hate the idea of going to war directly with anybody for any reason, because the mullahs are weaker than they like to project, and they know this well. That's why they relied on Hezbollah operating in Syria on their behalf for over 10 years.
That way, Khamenei could get what he wanted without sacrificing Iranian regime lives. But Hezbollah is now decimated and unable to fight.
The IRGC has missiles as its main weapon of war and that's it. Missiles don't work well against underground jihadist armies. The IRGC airforce is old and terrible. So the main remaining strategy would be for them to send IRGC infantry and vehicles deep into Syria, which they'll never dare to do.
Khamenei is more interested in keeping his own rotten regime alive, even at the cost of losing the terrorist Axis they've built across the region for 45 years. He will be more than ready to watch Assad exiled to Russia and Syria fall to jihadis, than to step in and prevent that from happening.
Image
@NiohBerg
No, seriously.
If Bashar Assad's regime collapses, the entire power dynamic of the region shifts. Khamenei will quickly lose his Axis, and the IRGC will shrink in size and influence.
This will ultimately weaken the regime in Iran and make it easier to overthrow the mullahs.
Unfortunately, we might also see a fanatical sunni "caliphate" rise in Syria, with minority groups wiped out and more even more tragedy. This depends on which faction comes out on top there, since they greatly vary in how extreme they are.
Dangerous, fast moving times.
Corathys
@Corathys
The Arab Spring launched the Middle East’s Thirty Years’ War.
#Syria has become the central battleground, much like the Holy Roman Empire was in Europe’s conflict.
It’s driven by deep sectarian divides (sunni vs. shia), proxy wars fueled by external powers (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the US, and Russia), and a relentless cycle of destruction and instability.
This war isn’t just about religion — it’s also a battleground for ethnic, political, and economic struggles. If history is any guide, these wars won’t end quickly, and their fallout will shape the region for decades. A Westphalian peace counterpart is nowhere on the horizon.
Corathys
@Corathys
What would Iran do with this situation in #Syria ?
Over the past few months, they’ve lost all their proxies. Hamas might be a manageable loss, but Hezbollah’s weakening must hurt them deeply. If Assad falls, their entire power play collapses, and Turkey and Saudi Arabia take over the region. They would lose the remaining strongholds of the Shia Crescent. This would not only isolate Iran but also embolden its rivals, leaving the regime vulnerable both externally and internally.
I don’t think they can afford to sit by and watch this happen. The question is, what would weaken the regime more: being visibly pushed out of the entire region, losing face and their remaining influence, and licking their wounds within their borders, or trying to show force, which could end in failure? Either option could potentially result in disaster for the Iranian regime.
4:14 PM · Nov 30, 2024
366
Views
♛ ✡︎
@NiohBerg
I have a theory to explain why the regime in Iran isn't going to save Assad. It's probably accurate.
The regime, despite all its barking, is TERRIFIED of sending the IRGC into a conventional war. This is the main reason for building their Arab proxies, which act as meatshield while the IRGC sits back in relative safety.
They fundamentally hate the idea of going to war directly with anybody for any reason, because the mullahs are weaker than they like to project, and they know this well. That's why they relied on Hezbollah operating in Syria on their behalf for over 10 years.
That way, Khamenei could get what he wanted without sacrificing Iranian regime lives. But Hezbollah is now decimated and unable to fight.
The IRGC has missiles as its main weapon of war and that's it. Missiles don't work well against underground jihadist armies. The IRGC airforce is old and terrible. So the main remaining strategy would be for them to send IRGC infantry and vehicles deep into Syria, which they'll never dare to do.
Khamenei is more interested in keeping his own rotten regime alive, even at the cost of losing the terrorist Axis they've built across the region for 45 years. He will be more than ready to watch Assad exiled to Russia and Syria fall to jihadis, than to step in and prevent that from happening.
Image
jward
passin' thru
Aleppo Has Fallen, Assad's Forces Regrouping As Rebels Blitz South
Howard Altman
12–16 minutes
A day after entering Aleppo, rebels have reportedly seized most of the city, Syria’s second-largest, pushed south toward Hama and captured much of Idlib province on Saturday in their surprise offensive launched on Thursday. In reaction, the Russian Air Force bombarded rebel positions in Aleppo, the first time they’ve struck the city in any robust capacity in the better part of a decade . Meanwhile, there are unconfirmed reports of a coup attempt against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the capital of Damascus.
You can catch up with our previous report on the rebel advance here.
Led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, this offensive is its first major attack against the regime in four years and comes as Iran’s top proxy force Hezbollah and Russia – Assad’s biggest backers – are embroiled in their own conflicts. Hezbollah, which supports the Assad regime, has been greatly degraded after open conflict with Israel and some Russian resources have been realigned away from Syria to fight in Ukraine. HTS, formerly an al-Qaida-affiliated group known as al-Nusra Front, has since cut its ties to the notorious Sunni jihadi organization.
ALEPPO, SYRIA - NOVEMBER 30: Armed groups opposing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime seized control of much of Aleppo's city center in Syria on November 30, 2024. Reaching Sadallah al-Jabiri Square, a central location in the city, the groups advanced further, taking over a significant portion of Aleppo. In a short period, the opposition forces also seized the governor's office, the police headquarters, and Aleppo Citadel, a symbolic landmark of the city. (Photo by Kasim Rammah/Anadolu via Getty Images)
ALEPPO, SYRIA – NOVEMBER 30: Armed groups opposing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime seized control of much of Aleppo’s city center in Syria on November 30, 2024. Reaching Sadallah al-Jabiri Square, a central location in the city, the groups advanced further, taking over a significant portion of Aleppo. In a short period, the opposition forces also seized the governor’s office, the police headquarters, and Aleppo Citadel, a symbolic landmark of the city. (Photo by Kasim Rammah/Anadolu via Getty Images) Anadolu
Videos emerging on social media showed rebel fighters throughout Aleppo.
“Assad forces completely collapse in northern and central Syria,” rebel commanders said in a WhatsApp message late Saturday, according to The Washington Post.
Assad on Saturday vowed to “defend [Syria’s] stability and territorial integrity in the face of all terrorists and their backers,” according to the BBC. “[The country] is capable, with the help of its allies and friends, of defeating and eliminating them, no matter how intense their terrorist attacks are,” his office quoted him as saying.
The Syrian strongman is getting help in the form of the aforementioned Russian airstrikes on rebel positions in Aleppo. Russian tactical jets and attack helicopters have been active from Khmeimim Air Base, near the city of Latakia, since 2015, providing vital support to the regime in Damascus. The bombardment reportedly resulted in civilian casualties, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a London-based watchdog organization monitoring the conflict.
“At least 16 civilians were killed and 20 others were injured in a horrific massacre carried out by fighter jets believed to be Russian, targeting a gathering of people at Al-Basel Roundabout in Aleppo city,” SOHR claimed “The number of civilians and combatants, who were killed in Idlib and Aleppo countryside during the “Deterrence of Aggression” operation which started in the early hours of November 27, has increased to 327.”
Aleppo has already been badly ravaged by years of war. It was first captured by rebel forces in 2012 and it became the site of a months-long siege in 2016. Russia and Syrian aircraft carried out constant air strikes that destroyed entire neighborhoods as Syrian regime forces fought to recapture the city of roughly two million residents.
HTS also said on Saturday that it had taken control of several areas on the outskirts of Hama, a government-controlled city and Syria’s fourth-largest. The rebels took over regime positions in at least 15 villages and towns, according to SOHR.
“This approach coincided with consecutive withdrawals by the regime forces from positions in Hama City, Hama Military Airport and several other positions, while several members of a military convoy of the regime fled,” SOHR reported. “Meanwhile, nearly 15 military convoys withdrew from Hama towards Homs.”
The status of control over Hama remains unclear and the city could still remain at least partially contested. Regardless, the airbase there that was used by Russia and the regime as under rebel control, as is the main airport in Aleppo.
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al Jawlani vowed to fight on to Damascus.
New video of HTS leader Abu Mohammed al Jawlani says “we will not rest until we reach #Damascus… we’ll proudly show this to the world.” Unclear when exactly this filmed but appears to be rebel forces adding to goals after managing to re-take #Aleppo from Assad forces #Syria pic.twitter.com/5ND2Oe8w2a
— Lizzie Porterلِيزي بورتر (@lcmporter) November 30, 2024
The HTS-led offensive includes other allied factions, including Turkish-backed Syrian rebel groups. After HTS fighters flooded out of their base in the rebel-held Idlib countryside, the northwest of Syria was scene to some of the fiercest fighting seen in the country for several years. As it pushed south toward Hama, HTS had reportedly captured a number of regime troops, which you can see in the video below.
By Saturday, the rebels had secured full control over Idlib province, seizing strategic towns such as Ma’arrat al-Nu’man and Khan Sheikhoun, according to Iranian media.
As they gobbled up territory and sent regime forces not the run, HTS reportedly captured a large amount of weaponry along the way.
The stunning collapse of Syria’s Russian-backed forces has reportedly prompted Moscow to sack Gen. Sergei Kisel, the leader of Russian troops in Syria.
Complicating matters, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces have also entered Aleppo.
“The Kurdish forces have been deployed in the towns of Nubl and Al-Zahraa in the north-western suburbs of Aleppo city, following the withdrawal of the Iranian-backed militias from both towns, as well as the deployment of Kurdish forces in Aleppo International Airport and neighborhoods in Aleppo suburbs following the withdrawal of regime forces from them,” according to SOHR. “Since last night, Nubl and Al-Zahraa towns have witnessed mass displacement by residents towards Al-Ashrafiyah neighborhood, several areas in the eastern countryside of Aleppo and other areas outside the province such as Homs and Hama.”
The U.S-Backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched a Major Operation from the East into the Western Districts of Aleppo this morning, securing Aleppo International Airport from Syrian Regime Forces and halting the Advance of Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS) as well as other… pic.twitter.com/cnCXpah9ZB
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) November 30, 2024
Though some forces loyal to Assad have largely fled wide swaths of territory without putting up a fight, it appears they may be massing for a stand at Hama, likely backed by Russia and Iran’s proxies.
“Syrian troops are positioned at a key elevation in Hama, known as Hamdella, specifically on Zien al-Abedine hill,” the official Iranian Press TV news outlet reported on Telegram.
The Syrian Arab Army, Assad’s ground forces, are moving tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and other equipment north toward Hama. There is an expectation of a major clash there in the coming hours.
Tanks, BMPs, and other Military Equipment of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its Allies continue to gather tonight in and around the City of Hama in Northwestern Syria; after Rebel Forces who had captured the City earlier today, decided to withdraw towards the North, where they… pic.twitter.com/gvC94eEsr9
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) December 1, 2024
Amid the fighting taking place in Idlib, Aleppo and Hama provinces, claims about a coup attempt against Assad emerged. Video posted on social media purporting to show gunfire near the headquarters near the presidential palace. It is alleged to have been led by Syrian State Security Director General Hosam Louqa.
Reports have appeared that in Damascus, Syria, there is an attempt of a coup against Assad.
It is reported that gunshots are heard by the presidential palace. Syria state TV stopped broadcasting.
The videos and information are not verified. x.com pic.twitter.com/y3SGGTM83X
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) November 30, 2024
Officials from Iran have pushed back on those claims.
Hossein Akbari, the Iranian Ambassador to Syria, said there was no military coup in Damascus nor any attempt to detain Assad, the official Iranian Shafaq news agency reported.
“The news published by some Iranian online platforms about a coup in Damascus surprised us,” Akbari stated, “The Syrian army knows what needs to be done. This sedition will be crushed, God willing.”
A reporter for Tasnim, another official Iranian news outlet, said the streets of Damascus are calm and called the claims “a psychological operation by the terrorists and their supporters to break the resistance and advance further.”
The War Zone cannot confirm any of these claims
The ongoing offensive against the regime is one of the most serious challenges Assad has faced since the Syrian civil war began in 2011 when regime forces responded to Arab Spring protests with deadly force. That ignited years of bloodshed, forcing some 14 million Syrians to flee their homes, about half to places elsewhere in the country.
The vacuum created by all this conflict has turned Syria into a regional crisis, drawing in troops from Turkey, Kurdish forces from Iraq and Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah fighters. Israel routinely bombs Iranian troops and weapons concentrations in Syria.
Jerusalem is watching the rebel advances in Syria with considerable wariness, as intelligence chiefs told the political echelon developments in Syria could ultimately spell trouble for Israel, according to Israeli media.
“Referring to a consultation hurriedly convened by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday evening with key figures in the defense establishment…intelligence officials assessing that ‘Iranian infrastructure in Syria has been harmed, and much of it has been captured by the rebels,’” the Times of Israel reported.
Netanyahu was reportedly said that Hezbollah’s attention will now be shifted to Syria, and “so will its forces, in order to defend the Assad regime.”
Israeli intelligence officials are concerned that Assad’s fall could allow the “strategic capabilities” of his regime to fall into the jihadists’ hands. The prime concern relates to “the remnants of chemical weapons,” according to the Times of Israel.
Amid all this, the U.S. maintains a presence near Deir Ezzor in the north officially to continue the fight in a coalition against ISIS, which established a so-called “caliphate” in large portions of Syria and Iraq in the wake of years of conflict.
Saturday night, the White House said the U.S. “has nothing to do with this offensive, which is led by Hay’at Tahir al-Sham (HTS), a designated terrorist organization…We will also continue to fully defend and protect U.S. personnel and U.S. military positions, which remain essential to ensuring that ISIS can never again resurge in Syria.”
The White House has released its First Statement, since the beginning of the ongoing Rebel Offensive in Northern Syria, with them stating, “The United States has nothing to do with this Offensive, which is led by Hay’at Tahir al-Sham (HTS), a Designated Terrorist Organization -… pic.twitter.com/jTGDqC5RqA
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) December 1, 2024
As we previously mentioned, there appears to be a major fight looming in and around the city of Hama. How much longer Assad can hold on is a lingering question, exacerbated by the fact that his two main backers have their own troubles siphoning off resources otherwise available for Syria.
Russia is bogged down in a nearly three-year-old war in Ukraine, forcing it to redeploy capabilities and personnel that were previously being used in support of the Syrian regime. Russian interests in Syria include the aforementioned Khmeimim Air Base, as well as access to port facilities at Tartus. These two bases serve as the only Russian facilities of their kind in the Mediterranean, making them highly strategic but also symbolic prizes that Moscow gained in exchange for saving Assad.
Iran, meanwhile, has seen its proxy Hezbollah, which has a substantial presence is Syria, severely weakened by Israel, and the Israeli Air Force has continued to pound Iranian and Iranian-proxy targets in Syria.
The HTS-led offensive has been as stunning as it has been swift. Whether it has the troops, equipment and logistical tail to not only push through Hama, but further south to Homs and eventually Damascus is something we will learn more about in the coming days. And while a lightning-fast blitz may be impressive, holding the territory gained against regrouped Syrian-Russia-Iranian-backed forces will be no easy task.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com
www.twz.com
Howard Altman
12–16 minutes
A day after entering Aleppo, rebels have reportedly seized most of the city, Syria’s second-largest, pushed south toward Hama and captured much of Idlib province on Saturday in their surprise offensive launched on Thursday. In reaction, the Russian Air Force bombarded rebel positions in Aleppo, the first time they’ve struck the city in any robust capacity in the better part of a decade . Meanwhile, there are unconfirmed reports of a coup attempt against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the capital of Damascus.
You can catch up with our previous report on the rebel advance here.
Led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, this offensive is its first major attack against the regime in four years and comes as Iran’s top proxy force Hezbollah and Russia – Assad’s biggest backers – are embroiled in their own conflicts. Hezbollah, which supports the Assad regime, has been greatly degraded after open conflict with Israel and some Russian resources have been realigned away from Syria to fight in Ukraine. HTS, formerly an al-Qaida-affiliated group known as al-Nusra Front, has since cut its ties to the notorious Sunni jihadi organization.
ALEPPO, SYRIA - NOVEMBER 30: Armed groups opposing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime seized control of much of Aleppo's city center in Syria on November 30, 2024. Reaching Sadallah al-Jabiri Square, a central location in the city, the groups advanced further, taking over a significant portion of Aleppo. In a short period, the opposition forces also seized the governor's office, the police headquarters, and Aleppo Citadel, a symbolic landmark of the city. (Photo by Kasim Rammah/Anadolu via Getty Images)
ALEPPO, SYRIA – NOVEMBER 30: Armed groups opposing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime seized control of much of Aleppo’s city center in Syria on November 30, 2024. Reaching Sadallah al-Jabiri Square, a central location in the city, the groups advanced further, taking over a significant portion of Aleppo. In a short period, the opposition forces also seized the governor’s office, the police headquarters, and Aleppo Citadel, a symbolic landmark of the city. (Photo by Kasim Rammah/Anadolu via Getty Images) Anadolu
Videos emerging on social media showed rebel fighters throughout Aleppo.
“Assad forces completely collapse in northern and central Syria,” rebel commanders said in a WhatsApp message late Saturday, according to The Washington Post.
Assad on Saturday vowed to “defend [Syria’s] stability and territorial integrity in the face of all terrorists and their backers,” according to the BBC. “[The country] is capable, with the help of its allies and friends, of defeating and eliminating them, no matter how intense their terrorist attacks are,” his office quoted him as saying.
The Syrian strongman is getting help in the form of the aforementioned Russian airstrikes on rebel positions in Aleppo. Russian tactical jets and attack helicopters have been active from Khmeimim Air Base, near the city of Latakia, since 2015, providing vital support to the regime in Damascus. The bombardment reportedly resulted in civilian casualties, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a London-based watchdog organization monitoring the conflict.
“At least 16 civilians were killed and 20 others were injured in a horrific massacre carried out by fighter jets believed to be Russian, targeting a gathering of people at Al-Basel Roundabout in Aleppo city,” SOHR claimed “The number of civilians and combatants, who were killed in Idlib and Aleppo countryside during the “Deterrence of Aggression” operation which started in the early hours of November 27, has increased to 327.”
Aleppo has already been badly ravaged by years of war. It was first captured by rebel forces in 2012 and it became the site of a months-long siege in 2016. Russia and Syrian aircraft carried out constant air strikes that destroyed entire neighborhoods as Syrian regime forces fought to recapture the city of roughly two million residents.
HTS also said on Saturday that it had taken control of several areas on the outskirts of Hama, a government-controlled city and Syria’s fourth-largest. The rebels took over regime positions in at least 15 villages and towns, according to SOHR.
“This approach coincided with consecutive withdrawals by the regime forces from positions in Hama City, Hama Military Airport and several other positions, while several members of a military convoy of the regime fled,” SOHR reported. “Meanwhile, nearly 15 military convoys withdrew from Hama towards Homs.”
The status of control over Hama remains unclear and the city could still remain at least partially contested. Regardless, the airbase there that was used by Russia and the regime as under rebel control, as is the main airport in Aleppo.
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al Jawlani vowed to fight on to Damascus.
New video of HTS leader Abu Mohammed al Jawlani says “we will not rest until we reach #Damascus… we’ll proudly show this to the world.” Unclear when exactly this filmed but appears to be rebel forces adding to goals after managing to re-take #Aleppo from Assad forces #Syria pic.twitter.com/5ND2Oe8w2a
— Lizzie Porterلِيزي بورتر (@lcmporter) November 30, 2024
The HTS-led offensive includes other allied factions, including Turkish-backed Syrian rebel groups. After HTS fighters flooded out of their base in the rebel-held Idlib countryside, the northwest of Syria was scene to some of the fiercest fighting seen in the country for several years. As it pushed south toward Hama, HTS had reportedly captured a number of regime troops, which you can see in the video below.
By Saturday, the rebels had secured full control over Idlib province, seizing strategic towns such as Ma’arrat al-Nu’man and Khan Sheikhoun, according to Iranian media.
As they gobbled up territory and sent regime forces not the run, HTS reportedly captured a large amount of weaponry along the way.
The stunning collapse of Syria’s Russian-backed forces has reportedly prompted Moscow to sack Gen. Sergei Kisel, the leader of Russian troops in Syria.
Complicating matters, the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces have also entered Aleppo.
“The Kurdish forces have been deployed in the towns of Nubl and Al-Zahraa in the north-western suburbs of Aleppo city, following the withdrawal of the Iranian-backed militias from both towns, as well as the deployment of Kurdish forces in Aleppo International Airport and neighborhoods in Aleppo suburbs following the withdrawal of regime forces from them,” according to SOHR. “Since last night, Nubl and Al-Zahraa towns have witnessed mass displacement by residents towards Al-Ashrafiyah neighborhood, several areas in the eastern countryside of Aleppo and other areas outside the province such as Homs and Hama.”
The U.S-Backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) launched a Major Operation from the East into the Western Districts of Aleppo this morning, securing Aleppo International Airport from Syrian Regime Forces and halting the Advance of Hayat Tahir al-Sham (HTS) as well as other… pic.twitter.com/cnCXpah9ZB
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) November 30, 2024
Though some forces loyal to Assad have largely fled wide swaths of territory without putting up a fight, it appears they may be massing for a stand at Hama, likely backed by Russia and Iran’s proxies.
“Syrian troops are positioned at a key elevation in Hama, known as Hamdella, specifically on Zien al-Abedine hill,” the official Iranian Press TV news outlet reported on Telegram.
The Syrian Arab Army, Assad’s ground forces, are moving tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and other equipment north toward Hama. There is an expectation of a major clash there in the coming hours.
Tanks, BMPs, and other Military Equipment of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its Allies continue to gather tonight in and around the City of Hama in Northwestern Syria; after Rebel Forces who had captured the City earlier today, decided to withdraw towards the North, where they… pic.twitter.com/gvC94eEsr9
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) December 1, 2024
Amid the fighting taking place in Idlib, Aleppo and Hama provinces, claims about a coup attempt against Assad emerged. Video posted on social media purporting to show gunfire near the headquarters near the presidential palace. It is alleged to have been led by Syrian State Security Director General Hosam Louqa.
Reports have appeared that in Damascus, Syria, there is an attempt of a coup against Assad.
It is reported that gunshots are heard by the presidential palace. Syria state TV stopped broadcasting.
The videos and information are not verified. x.com pic.twitter.com/y3SGGTM83X
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) November 30, 2024
Officials from Iran have pushed back on those claims.
Hossein Akbari, the Iranian Ambassador to Syria, said there was no military coup in Damascus nor any attempt to detain Assad, the official Iranian Shafaq news agency reported.
“The news published by some Iranian online platforms about a coup in Damascus surprised us,” Akbari stated, “The Syrian army knows what needs to be done. This sedition will be crushed, God willing.”
A reporter for Tasnim, another official Iranian news outlet, said the streets of Damascus are calm and called the claims “a psychological operation by the terrorists and their supporters to break the resistance and advance further.”
The War Zone cannot confirm any of these claims
The ongoing offensive against the regime is one of the most serious challenges Assad has faced since the Syrian civil war began in 2011 when regime forces responded to Arab Spring protests with deadly force. That ignited years of bloodshed, forcing some 14 million Syrians to flee their homes, about half to places elsewhere in the country.
The vacuum created by all this conflict has turned Syria into a regional crisis, drawing in troops from Turkey, Kurdish forces from Iraq and Iranian-backed Lebanese Hezbollah fighters. Israel routinely bombs Iranian troops and weapons concentrations in Syria.
Jerusalem is watching the rebel advances in Syria with considerable wariness, as intelligence chiefs told the political echelon developments in Syria could ultimately spell trouble for Israel, according to Israeli media.
“Referring to a consultation hurriedly convened by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Friday evening with key figures in the defense establishment…intelligence officials assessing that ‘Iranian infrastructure in Syria has been harmed, and much of it has been captured by the rebels,’” the Times of Israel reported.
Netanyahu was reportedly said that Hezbollah’s attention will now be shifted to Syria, and “so will its forces, in order to defend the Assad regime.”
Israeli intelligence officials are concerned that Assad’s fall could allow the “strategic capabilities” of his regime to fall into the jihadists’ hands. The prime concern relates to “the remnants of chemical weapons,” according to the Times of Israel.
Amid all this, the U.S. maintains a presence near Deir Ezzor in the north officially to continue the fight in a coalition against ISIS, which established a so-called “caliphate” in large portions of Syria and Iraq in the wake of years of conflict.
Saturday night, the White House said the U.S. “has nothing to do with this offensive, which is led by Hay’at Tahir al-Sham (HTS), a designated terrorist organization…We will also continue to fully defend and protect U.S. personnel and U.S. military positions, which remain essential to ensuring that ISIS can never again resurge in Syria.”
The White House has released its First Statement, since the beginning of the ongoing Rebel Offensive in Northern Syria, with them stating, “The United States has nothing to do with this Offensive, which is led by Hay’at Tahir al-Sham (HTS), a Designated Terrorist Organization -… pic.twitter.com/jTGDqC5RqA
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) December 1, 2024
As we previously mentioned, there appears to be a major fight looming in and around the city of Hama. How much longer Assad can hold on is a lingering question, exacerbated by the fact that his two main backers have their own troubles siphoning off resources otherwise available for Syria.
Russia is bogged down in a nearly three-year-old war in Ukraine, forcing it to redeploy capabilities and personnel that were previously being used in support of the Syrian regime. Russian interests in Syria include the aforementioned Khmeimim Air Base, as well as access to port facilities at Tartus. These two bases serve as the only Russian facilities of their kind in the Mediterranean, making them highly strategic but also symbolic prizes that Moscow gained in exchange for saving Assad.
Iran, meanwhile, has seen its proxy Hezbollah, which has a substantial presence is Syria, severely weakened by Israel, and the Israeli Air Force has continued to pound Iranian and Iranian-proxy targets in Syria.
The HTS-led offensive has been as stunning as it has been swift. Whether it has the troops, equipment and logistical tail to not only push through Hama, but further south to Homs and eventually Damascus is something we will learn more about in the coming days. And while a lightning-fast blitz may be impressive, holding the territory gained against regrouped Syrian-Russia-Iranian-backed forces will be no easy task.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com
Aleppo Has Fallen, Assad's Forces Regrouping As Rebels Blitz South
The rebel forces' blitz south is impressive, but holding all that territory will be put to the test if a robust response materializes.
www.twz.com
jward
passin' thru
George Meneshian
@GMeneshian
2h
I spoke with my relatives in Aleppo:
1. Till now, HTS has brought no harm to Christians. Many HTS militants stationed in Christian neighbourhoods are Halabi.
2. The curfew continues.
3. HTS provides Aleppo with more electricity than Assad did.
I'm relieved but cautious.
@GMeneshian
2h
I spoke with my relatives in Aleppo:
1. Till now, HTS has brought no harm to Christians. Many HTS militants stationed in Christian neighbourhoods are Halabi.
2. The curfew continues.
3. HTS provides Aleppo with more electricity than Assad did.
I'm relieved but cautious.
jward
passin' thru
Clash Report
@clashreport
New statement from the Syrian opposition forces:
They offered a safe passage for YPG militants in Aleppo to move towards northern Syria.
They emphasized that their fight is solely against Bashar Assad and Iranian militias.
They also affirmed that Kurds are part of Syrian society and have the same rights.
Image
@clashreport
New statement from the Syrian opposition forces:
They offered a safe passage for YPG militants in Aleppo to move towards northern Syria.
They emphasized that their fight is solely against Bashar Assad and Iranian militias.
They also affirmed that Kurds are part of Syrian society and have the same rights.
Image
