INTL Portugal Election - March 10, 2024

[Plain Jane]

Corruption scandals cast a shadow over Portugal’s early general election and may favor populists

The election is being held after a Socialist government collapsed last November following a corruption investigation.

apnews.com

Corruption scandals cast a shadow over Portugal’s early general election and may favor populists​

BY BARRY HATTON
Updated 12:09 AM EST, February 25, 2024
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LISBON, Portugal (AP) — The official two-week campaign period before Portugal’s early general election began on Sunday, with the country’s two moderate mainstream parties once again expected to collect the most votes but with the expected rise of a populist party potentially adding momentum to Europe’s drift to the right.

The center-left Socialist Party and center-right Social Democratic Party have alternated in power for decades. But they are unsure of how much support they might need from smaller rival parties for the parliamentary votes needed to form a government after the March 10 vote.

Corruption scandals have cast a shadow over the ballot. They have also fed public disenchantment with the country’s political class as Portugal prepares to celebrate 50 years of democracy, following the Carnation Revolution that toppled a rightist dictatorship on April 25, 1974.


The election is being held after a Socialist government collapsed last November following a corruption investigation. That case brought a police search of Prime Minister António Costa’s official residence and the arrest of his chief of staff. Costa hasn’t been accused of any crime.

Also in recent weeks, a Lisbon court decided that a former Socialist prime minister should stand trial for corruption. Prosecutors allege that José Sócrates, prime minister between 2005-2011, pocketed around 34 million euros ($36.7 million) during his time in power from graft, fraud and money laundering.



The Social Democratic Party has also been tainted by corruption allegations.

During the recent weeks of unofficial campaigning, a graft investigation in Portugal’s Madeira Islands triggered the resignation of two prominent Social Democrat officials. The scandal erupted on the same day the Social Democratic Party unveiled an anti-corruption billboard in Lisbon that said, “It can’t go on like this.”


A housing crisis, persistent levels of low pay and unreliable public health services are other areas where the records of the two main parties are at issue.

Hot-button topics that have driven political debate and encouraged populist parties elsewhere in Europe, such as climate change, migration and religious differences, have largely been absent in Portugal’s campaign.

A five-year-old populist and nationalist party called Chega! (in English, Enough!) has made the fight against corruption one of its political banners. “Portugal needs cleaning out,” one of its billboards declares.

The party’s leader, 41-year-old lawyer André Ventura, has been riding in third place in opinion polls and could become a kingmaker if his political influence grows. His party got just 1.3% of votes in a 2019 election, but jumped to 7.3% in 2022. It could collect more than double that this time, polls suggest, if a protest vote materializes.

A key question is whether the Social Democrats will end up needing the votes of Chega! to make up a parliamentary majority after eight years in opposition.

The Socialist Party could, as in the past, forge parliamentary alliances with the Portuguese Communist Party or Left Bloc party to take power.

Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos, his party’s candidate for prime minister, is a lawmaker and a former minister for housing and infrastructure. Santos, 46, quit the previous government under a cloud over his handling of bailed-out flag carrier TAP Air Portugal and a dispute over the site of a new Lisbon airport.

Luís Montenegro, the 51-year-old Social Democrat leader aiming to become prime minister, has been a lawmaker for more than 20 years. He heads the Democratic Alliance, a grouping with two smaller right-of-center parties formed for the election.

 

[Plain Jane]

Meet Pedro Nuno Santos, the man fighting to keep Portugal from swinging to the right

Next month’s snap election could see António Costa’s Socialists lose power for first time in eight years.

www.politico.eu

Meet Pedro Nuno Santos, the man fighting to keep Portugal from swinging to the right​

Next month’s snap election could see António Costa’s Socialists lose power for first time in eight years.

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Santos has argued voters had to choose between his party or a scenario that would see the far right determine Portugal's fortunes | Patricia De Melo Moreira/AFP via Getty Images
FEBRUARY 27, 2024 1:26 PM CET
BY AITOR HERNÁNDEZ-MORALES

BRUSSELS — “Vote for me, or else the far right will end up in charge,” was the cry Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa used to secure an unexpected absolute majority the last time his country went to the polls.

Although Costa has since fallen from grace, Pedro Nuno Santos — Costa’s successor at the head of the Portuguese Socialists — is hoping to use the exact same message to keep his party in power after a national vote on March 10.

The snap election is shaping up to be a referendum on Costa’s party. After eight years in office, the socialist prime minister resigned last fall amid a police probe that saw his official residence raided, and several high-ranking officials indicted for corruption and influence peddling.

That cleared the way for Santos to be elected head of the party — but it also fueled a surge in support for the center-right Social Democratic Party. And though the party narrowly leads in the latest polls, it will be hard-pressed to form a government without the backing of the far-right Chega party.

In an interview with POLITICO during a recent visit to Brussels, Santos argued voters had to choose between his party or a scenario that would see the far right determine Portugal’s fortunes.

“The only way the center right can govern is with Chega,” Santos insisted. “And having a government that depends on the far right in any way will pose a threat to democracy in Portugal.”

Santos compared the stakes in the upcoming national vote to those set to be in play in June’s European Parliament election.

“Far-right parties are anti-EU parties and Europe is still being constructed — so we need parties that believe in the European project and are willing to work together,” he said.

“Parties like Chega are not interested in that: At a national level, it is a party that doesn’t believe in diversity, in respect for others — a vision that is diametrically opposed to our own.”

Refusal to reject Costa​

It’s unclear if the strategy that worked for Costa in 2022 will sway voters this time around.

Despite polls indicating that Chega is on track to more than double its results in this election, voters seem less alarmed by the far right’s growth than they were two years ago.

Instead, electors appear to be fatigued by eight years of socialist rule, and skeptical that Santos — who joined the party at age 14, led its junior wing for years, and served in all of Costa’s cabinets until his resignation last year (following public backlash over the half-million-euro severance pay a secretary of state received from state-owned airline TAP, which fell under his remit) — represents a fresh new era after his predecessor’s controversial downfall.

Santos declined to comment on the ongoing investigation against Costa, insisting that it was impossible to “draw any conclusions regarding a case that is still in its initial phases: We have to respect the judiciary, be patient, and wait before we take any position on this matter.”

The Portuguese Socialist Party “has taken great care to have governments that respect the law, composed of ethical politicians,” Santos said.

Rather than reject his predecessor, Santos declared that he was “proud of the legacy of the past eight years,” which has seen the country’s unemployment rates slashed and the minimum wage increase by more than 60 percent.

“But what I represent is a new impulse, a will to address challenges we didn’t get to, come up with new solutions for the problems we were unable to solve, and keep advancing with the measures that remain unfinished.”

One major challenge for whoever leads Portugal next is housing: The price of homes more than doubled during Costa’s time in office. Thousands have taken to the streets in protest over the past year, complaining that unchecked tourism and golden visa schemes have made the situation worse.

Santos, who served as infrastructure and housing minister between 2019 and 2023, said it was important to “not demonize the tourism sector,” but also acknowledged that the government had been “incapable of addressing this challenge in time.”

For more polling data from across Europe visit POLITICO Poll of Polls.
The socialist leader said he attempted to reduce pressures for housing demand and increase supply with schemes to build new homes and rehabilitate public buildings for residential use — “not just for low-income residents, but for the middle classes” — adding, however, that such projects take time to produce results.

“You don’t build a house in a year. … Had we started to tackle this problem two, three decades ago, we would have been better off,” he said. “We left housing up to the market and we’re paying the consequences now.”

Santos said that, if elected, he would push for reindustrialization of Portugal to create quality jobs, with policies he said the Socialists had been unable to enact during their eight years in office — due to snap elections.

“Our priority is to invest in industrial development, because that’s the only way we get a sophisticated, diversified economy capable of providing better salaries,” he said. “We don’t want to be a party that’s only about social welfare; we’re social democrats who also have economic plans.”

This article has been updated to reflect the circumstances of Santos’ resignation in 2023.

 

[Plain Jane]

The populist revolt is about to up-end Portugal’s politics. If the traditional parties seek to exclude Chega, they will only turbo-charge the upstart

Portuguese elections rarely make news outside that country. Sunday’s parliamentary vote will be different if the polls prove correct. A national populist party, Chega, looks likely to nearly triple…

brusselssignal.eu

The populist revolt is about to up-end Portugal’s politics. If the traditional parties seek to exclude Chega, they will only turbo-charge the upstart​

The leader of the Chega (Enough) Party, Andre Ventura, gestures during an electoral campaign rally for the country's upcoming legislative elections in Castelo Branco, Portugal, 03 March 2024. EPA-EFE/MIGUEL PEREIRA DA SILVA

PS has plummeted in the polls and has little chance of winning more than a third of the vote. Its only feasible chance at returning to power is with AD’s support.

AD’s Montenegro, on the other hand, knows that support of the unpopular PS is the kiss of death.

Portuguese clearly want a change, and alliance with the PS won’t provide that. He is trying to force change minded voters to back him by ruling out an alliance with Chega. AD’s slogan is “Believe in Change,” and Montenegro’s hope is that in the polling booth voters will reluctantly back him to get it.

His hope may be dashed by Ventura’s embrace of change and Chega’s untraditional support.

Chega’s slogan is “Clean Up Portugal,” and since the party has never held power there is no history to dispute the claim they will do that.

Polls also show that Chega’s support tends to come from the young, the less educated, and the economically downscale.

These groups have traditionally backed PS or other Left-wing parties and may not be willing to trust an AD-IL alliance whose demographic base of support tilts toward the well-off and the educated.

Montenegro will be in a quandry if current polls reflect Sunday’s results. AD looks set to take the most votes but fall well short of a majority even in combination with IL.

Neither Livre nor PAN look likely to gain enough seats to push a cross-ideological alliance over the top. Montenegro will then finally have to choose: grand coalition with PS or Chega.

He should keep in mind the perils of choosing the grand coalition option. No European grand coalition has yet stemmed the rising populist tide.

Instead, voters who want change drift toward the populists while disappointed ideologues tend to swing towards more purist parties. An AD-PS coalition would likely see Chega, IL, and some of the Left-wing parties grow larger.

Montenegro would be wiser to follow the course adopted by Scandinavian countries. National populist parties there have either been part of center-Right governments or supported them via confidence and supply.

Treating those parties – and their voters – as worthy of respect has tended to halt their rapid rise as the issues they raise become part of normal politics. Responsibility tames these parties, it seems.

The traditional Left-Right political axis arose in the 20th Century because it reflected different approaches to the common problems of the era. This axis is breaking down because it no longer provides real answers to today’s problems.

Eventually, all developed nations will have to accommodate populist parties that have plausible answers to the new problems. Portugal can be a leader in that path if the election’s winner stops demonising populists and starts governing with them.

 

[Plain Jane]

Anger over corruption and Portugal's economy could help a radical right party in Sunday's election

Corruption is a key issue in Portugal's early general election on Sunday. Portugal’s center-left Socialist Party and center-right Social Democratic Party have alternated in power for decades and are expected to collect most of the 10.8 million potential votes this time.

apnews.com

Anger over corruption and Portugal’s economy could help a radical right party in Sunday’s election​

BY BARRY HATTON
Updated 1:43 AM EST, March 7, 2024
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LISBON, Portugal (AP) — Home furnishings giant Ikea recently placed billboards in Portugal advertising a self-assembly bookcase, with a wink at the country’s political upheaval. “A good place to stash books. Or to stash 75,800 euros,” it said.

That’s the amount of cash, equivalent to $82,000, police found stuffed in envelopes on bookshelves when they searched the office of the prime minister’s chief of staff last year during a corruption investigation.

The discovery triggered a scandal that brought down the government and led to an early general election on Sunday.
Corruption is a high-profile issue in the election after the cases “caused a lot of public dismay,” said Paula Espirito Santo, an associate professor at the University of Lisbon’s Superior Institute for Social and Political Sciences.

The outrage could give further momentum to a rightward drift in European politics as a radical right populist party benefits from disenchantment with mainstream political parties. Similar trends gripped neighboring Spain and France.

Portugal’s center-left Socialist Party and center-right Social Democratic Party have alternated in power for decades. They are expected to collect most of the 10.8 million potential votes this time.

But both are tainted by charges of graft and cronyism.

The election is taking place because Socialist leader António Costa resigned after eight years as prime minister amid the corruption investigation. He hasn’t been accused of any crime.



Also, a Lisbon court recently decided that a former Socialist prime minister should stand trial for corruption. Prosecutors accuse José Sócrates, prime minister between 2005-2011, of pocketing around 34 million euros ($37 million) from graft, fraud and money laundering during his time in power.

The Social Democratic Party is not unblemished, either.

A recent graft investigation in Portugal’s Madeira Islands triggered the resignation of two prominent Social Democrat officials. The scandal erupted on the same day the party unveiled an anti-corruption billboard in Lisbon that said, “It can’t go on like this.”

Yet Portugal’s malaise runs deeper than corruption.

Despite tens of billions of euros in European Union development aid in recent decades, it remains one of Western Europe’s poorest countries.

In 2022, the average monthly wage before tax was around 1,400 euros ($1,500) — barely enough to rent a one-bedroom apartment in Lisbon as prices have shot up amid a housing crisis.

Close to 3 million Portuguese workers earn less than 1,000 euros ($1,085) a month. The average old-age pension is around 500 euros ($543) a month. Hardship has grown due to a surge in inflation.

The frustrations have come into sharper focus because the election roughly coincides with the 50th anniversary next month of the Carnation Revolution. That army coup swept away António Salazar’s right-wing dictatorship, which had kept the country in shackles for four decades, and introduced a democratic system of government.

The landmark event is a powerful symbol of hope in Portugal. In the opinion of many left-leaning people, its lofty ideals have been replaced by grubby political interests.

“I’m a bit disillusioned, of course. I think we’re all going through a period of disillusionment … We believed in something,” said Osvaldo Sousa, an opera singer at Lisbon’s Sao Carlos theater who as a 20-year-old student witnessed tanks and troops in the streets on April 25, 1974.

“Our dreams came up short,” he said at his apartment in the capital’s suburbs, pointing to current difficulties with housing and public health care.

Even more frustrating for people like Sousa is that a radical right party could now have access to power through the ballot box.

The Chega (Enough) party may end up in the role of kingmaker if, as expected, the main parties need the support of smaller rivals to form a government.

Just five years old, Chega collected its first seat in Portugal’s 230-seat Parliament in 2019. That jumped to 12 seats in 2022, and polls suggest it could more than double that number this time.

Party leader André Ventura is tapping the public disenchantment. “For 50 years the Portuguese have voted for the same parties and nothing’s changed,” he said recently.

Ventura has forged friendly relations with Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister and head of the populist, right-wing League party, and French far-right leader Marine Le Pen. Like them, he prefers the EU to be a grouping of sovereign states with no federal obligations. He also wants tighter controls on immigration.

Ventura has indicated he is prepared to drop some of Chega’s more controversial proposals, such as chemical castration for some sex offenders, if that opens the door to a governing alliance with other right-of-center parties.

He has made use of social media to reach younger voters. One is 21-year-old Carolina Pereira, who said she had to drop out of university because she couldn’t afford to continue.

Now she can’t find a job as the work available pays badly, and young people from her city of Almada near Lisbon are seeking work abroad.

“I identify (with Ventura) because I want things to change,” she said.

___​

AP videojournalist Helena Alves contributed to this report.

___​

Follow AP’s global elections coverage at Global elections

 

[Plain Jane]

Portugal is in suspense after an election produces no clear winner and a surging populist party

The election is taking place because Socialist leader António Costa resigned in November after eight years as prime minister amid a corruption investigation involving his chief of staff.

apnews.com

Polls open in Portugal’s general election with mainstream moderates trying to keep populists at bay​

BY BARRY HATTON
Updated 4:19 AM EDT, March 10, 2024
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LISBON, Portugal (AP) — Polls have officially opened Sunday in Portugal’s general election with mainstream moderates trying to keep a populist party at bay.

The election, with 10.8 million registered voters, is set against a backdrop of corruption and economic hardship that have eroded faith in moderate mainstream parties and could push a significant number of voters into the arms of a radical right populist party.
A slew of recent corruption scandals has tarnished the two parties that have alternated in power for decades — the center-left Socialist Party and the center-right Social Democratic Party, which is running with two small allies in a coalition it calls Democratic Alliance. Those traditional parties are still expected to collect most of the votes.

Public frustration with politics-as-usual had already been percolating before the outcries over graft. Low wages and a high cost of living — worsened last year by surges in inflation and interest rates — coupled with a housing crisis and failings in public health care contributed to the disgruntlement.

That discontent has been further stirred up by Chega (Enough), a populist party that potentially could gain the most from the current public mood.

Chega is widely expected to be the third most-voted party in a political shift to the right that has already been seen elsewhere in Europe. Spain and France have witnessed similar trends in recent years.



Chega could even end up in the role of kingmaker if a bigger party needs the support of smaller rivals to form a government.

Voting began at 8 a.m. (0800 GMT) and most ballot results were expected within hours of polling stations closing at 8 p.m. (2000 GMT).

Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, largely a figurehead but whose formal consent is needed for a party to take power, urged people to vote because uncertain times in world affairs threatened the country’s wellbeing. In the last election in 2022, turnout was 51%.

In a televised address to the nation on Saturday night, Rebelo de Sousa said the unpredictable outcome of elections later this year for the European Parliament and in the United States, as well as the war in Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East, could bring more economic difficulties.

He said that “it is at grievous times like this that voting becomes more important.”

The election is taking place because Socialist leader António Costa resigned in November after eight years as prime minister amid a corruption investigation involving his chief of staff. Costa hasn’t been accused of any crime.

The Social Democrats, too, were embarrassed just before the campaign by a graft scandal that brought the resignation of two prominent party officials.

Meanwhile, voters have expressed alarm at Portugal’s living standards as financial pressures mount.

An influx of foreign real estate investors and tourists seeking short-term rentals brought a spike in house prices, especially in big cities such as the capital Lisbon where many locals are being priced out of the market.

The economy feels stuck in a low gear. The Portuguese, who have long been among Western Europe’s lowest earners, received an average monthly wage before tax last year of around 1,500 euros ($1,640) — barely enough to rent a one-bedroom flat in Lisbon. Close to 3 million Portuguese workers earn less than 1,000 euros ($1,093) a month.

The number of people without an assigned family doctor, meantime, rose to 1.7 million last year, the highest number ever and up from 1.4 million in 2022.

The 46-year-old Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos, his party’s candidate for prime minister, is promising change with what he vaguely calls “a fresh boost.” But he hasn’t broken with senior party members who served in previous governments.

Social Democrat leader Luis Montenegro, 51, who would likely become prime minister if the Democratic Alliance wins, says he’ll draft non-party-affiliated figures – people he calls “doers” -- into his government.

Chega party leader Andre Ventura has cannily plugged into the dissatisfaction and has built a following among young people on social media. Just five years old, Chega collected its first seat in Portugal’s 230-seat Parliament in 2019. That jumped to 12 seats in 2022, and polls suggest it could more than double that number this time.

Ventura says he is prepared to drop some of his party’s most controversial proposals — such as chemical castration for some sex offenders and the introduction of life prison sentences — if that opens the door to his inclusion in a possible governing alliance with other right-of-center parties.

His insistence on national sovereignty instead of closer European Union integration and his plan to grant police the right to strike are other issues that could thwart his ambitions to enter a government coalition.

Ventura has had a colorful career. He has gone from a practicing lawyer and university professor specializing in tax law to a boisterous TV soccer pundit, an author of low-brow books and a bombastic orator on the campaign trail.

 

[StarryEyedLad]

Good, I hope the populists win.

 

[Plain Jane]

I think that the polls have just closed but there are no results yet.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/portuguese-head-polls-right-left-seen-almost-evenly-matched-2024-03-10/

No clear winner in sight as Portuguese vote in tight general election​

By David Latona and Catarina Demony
March 10, 20241:31 PM EDTUpdated an hour ago

• summary

• One party winning outright majority unlikely, opinion polls show
• Support for far-right expected to grow
• Turnout higher than previous election in 2022

LISBON/ESPINHO, March 10 (Reuters) - Portuguese voters headed to the polls on Sunday, facing a choice between switching to a centre-right government or keeping the centre-left in power, although neither appears to have a path to an outright majority.
The far-right Chega party has been growing in clout and could play a kingmaker role in post-election talks.

Issues dominating the campaign in western Europe's poorest country include a crippling housing crisis, low wages, sagging healthcare, and corruption, seen by many as endemic to the mainstream parties.

Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. (0800 GMT) and close at 7 p.m. in mainland Portugal and an hour later on the Azores archipelago.
Turnout at 4 p.m. was 51.96%, up from 45.66% at the same time during the previous election in January 2022, the Interior Ministry said. Results are expected around midnight.

"It's a sign that there was greater citizen participation, and this is what's intended in elections," said Fernando Anastacio, spokesperson of the Portuguese electoral commission. "Abstention's falling and it's a good sign."

The election, triggered by Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa's resignation amid a graft investigation four months ago, pits against each other the two centrist parties - the Socialist Party (PS) and the Social Democratic Party (PSD) - that have alternated in power since the end of a fascist dictatorship five decades ago.

"I hope life gets better than what it is now," 86-year-old Diamantino Vieira told Reuters as he waited to vote at a polling station in the northern city of Espinho, where Luis Montenegro, who is at the helm of the Democratic Alliance (AD) of right-leaning parties, also cast his ballot.

The AD, which comprises Montenegro's PSD and two smaller conservative parties, leads in most opinion polls but could struggle to govern without Chega's support. Montenegro has so far ruled out any deals with the radical populists, who want a government role.

[1/5]Far right political party Chega leader Andre Ventura gestures as he queues at a polling station during the general election in Lisbon, Portugal, March 10, 2024. REUTERS/Violeta Santos Moura Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

Also in Espinho, Ana Maria, 73, encouraged others to vote to complain about the state of the country, adding: "The people in government ... just look at their pockets and care only about themselves. They're useless."

Eduardo Velosa, a 35-year-old bookseller in Lisbon, said the election could mark the beginning of a new political cycle.
"Everyone should vote because we have many problems," he added.

The ruling PS, led by Pedro Nuno Santos after Costa's resignation, could attempt a replay of their old alliances with the Left Bloc and the Communists that allowed them to govern between 2015 and 2019, if the combined left gets more than 115 seats in the 230-seat parliament.

Reuters Graphics
Surveys suggest support for Chega's anti-establishment message, its vow to sweep away corruption and hostility to what it sees as "excessive" immigration, has roughly doubled since the 2022 election, though it remains in third place.

On Friday, conservative President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa told Expresso newspaper he would do everything he can to prevent Chega from gaining power, drawing criticism as the head of state is mandated to remain neutral.

Political scientist Antonio Costa Pinto of Lisbon University said Portugal "has entered the dynamic of many European democracies", in which the centre-right is challenged by having a radical party to its right consolidated in third place.

A potential AD minority government, even supported by the smaller centre-right Liberal Initiative, would likely need votes from Chega to pass legislation, making it relatively fragile as Chega could topple it at any point.

However, "a PS victory with an absolute right-wing majority in parliament would be the most complex, most unstable scenario," Costa Pinto added.

More than 10 million citizens are eligible to vote.

Reporting by David Latona, Catarina Demony and Sergio Goncalves Editing by Andrei Khalip, Frances Kerry, Christina Fincher and Giles Elgood

 

[Plain Jane]

Portugal election: polls tightening as counting passes 98% – live updates

With almost all votes counted, the Democratic Alliance is on 29.6% while Socialist party has 28.7%

www.theguardian.com

2m ago16.04 EDT

Exit poll puts centre-right in lead in Portugal​

A first exit poll, carried out for SIC and Expresso, shows the following:

Centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD): 27.6 to 31.8% (with 77 to 89 deputies)

Socialist party (PS): 24.2 to 31.8% (68 to 80 deputies)

Far-right Chega: 16.6 to 20.8% (44 to 54 deputies)

Liberal Initiative: 4.1 to 7.3% (6 to 12 deputies)

Left Bloc: 3.2 to 6.4% (3 to 9 deputies)

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Updated at 16.05 EDT

 

[Plain Jane]

I will be on family Zoom in about 15 minutes so if anyone has updates, please post!

Portugal election: polls tightening as counting passes 98% – live updates

With almost all votes counted, the Democratic Alliance is on 29.6% while Socialist party has 28.7%

www.theguardian.com

3m ago20.42 GMT
The counting of votes is underway.

Early data from Portugal Photograph: Ministry of Internal Administration, PortugalShare


8m ago20.38 GMT
Here’s a photo of far-right Chega supporters reacting to the first exit polls.

Supporters of far right Chega party react to the first exit polls during the general election in Lisbon. Photograph: Pedro Rocha/Reuters

 

[Plain Jane]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1766933916399611907

View: https://twitter.com/KrahMax/status/1766933916399611907?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1766933916399611907%7Ctwgr%5E23d31376a777bef0a65ed5e56a79d24c21437cfd%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Flive%2F2024%2Fmar%2F10%2Fportugal-elections-tight-race-expected-with-far-right-hopeful-of-kingmaker-role-live-updates

 

[Plain Jane]

Portugal election: polls tightening as counting passes 98% – live updates

With almost all votes counted, the Democratic Alliance is on 29.6% while Socialist party has 28.7%

www.theguardian.com

There are a bunch of congratulations coming for Chega. I'll post the texts but the very numerous tweets are at the link.

37m ago18.23 EDT
“Congratulations Andre Ventura for that great result,” wrote Santiago Abascal, the leader of Spain’s far-right Vox.


41m ago18.19 EDT
Congratulations for the far-right Chega have also arrived from Hungary.

Ádám Samu Balázs, head of the international secretariat for Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party, called the results a “great breakthrough” for “our friend and ally” André Ventura.

1h ago17.59 EDT
“Without a left- or a right-wing majority that excludes Chega, the traditional patterns of alternation in government are no longer viable,” writes political scientist Vicente Valentim.

1h ago17.46 EDT
Jordan Bardella, president of France’s National Rally, has joined other voices across Europe’s far-right in congratulating Chega.

1h ago17.44 EDT
Harald Vilimsky, member of the European parliament for the Freedom Party of Austria, has also congratulated Chega.

1h ago17.43 EDT
Maximilian Krah, member of the European parliament for Alternative for Germany, said Chega is on the way to a “fantastic success”.

 

[Plain Jane]

Portugal election: polls tightening as counting passes 98% – live updates

With almost all votes counted, the Democratic Alliance is on 29.6% while Socialist party has 28.7%

www.theguardian.com

18.33 EDT

Portugal's centre-right coalition on course for narrow victory as far-right makes gains​

Sam Jones
Portugal’s centre-right is on course to narrowly defeat the incumbent Socialists but fall well short of a majority in a closely fought snap general election in which the far-right Chega party looks set to finish third, almost tripling its share of the vote and becoming a potential kingmaker.

With 95% of Sunday’s votes counted, the Democratic Alliance – an electoral platform made up of the large Social Democratic party (PSD) and two smaller conservative parties – was first with 30.8% of the vote, followed by the Socialist party on 28.4%.

Chega was in third place with 18.6%, raising the prospect that it could play a key role in the formation of a new centre-right administration. It is a huge surge for the populist, far-right party, which was founded five years ago by André Ventura, a former TV football pundit who was once a rising star in the PSD. The party broke through in the 2019 election, attracting 1.3% of the vote and gaining its first MP in Portugal’s 230-seat assembly. Three years later, it took 7.2% of the vote and won 12 seats.

Although the PSD’s leader, Luís Montenegro, has explicitly ruled out any deals with Chega because of what he calls Ventura’s “often xenophobic, racist, populist and excessively demagogic” views, he is now likely to come under considerable pressure from his own party to reach an agreement with the far-right party to help the PSD into government.

Even with the backing of the smaller centre-right Liberal Initiative – which was on course to finish fourth on around 4.5% – any potential minority government led by the Democratic Alliance would probably still have to rely on Chega’s support to pass legislation, leaving its stability in the hands of the far right.

Read the full story here.

 

[Plain Jane]

Portugal election: polls tightening as counting passes 98% – live updates

With almost all votes counted, the Democratic Alliance is on 29.6% while Socialist party has 28.7%

www.theguardian.com

The results have tightened up.

54m ago19.00 EDT
With close to all votes counted, here are the latest numbers:

Democratic Alliance: 29.8%

Socialist party: 28.7%

Chega: 18.2%

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Updated at 19.20 EDT

 

[Plain Jane]

Nothing much has changed overnight. I suspect that the conservatives will have a tough time forming a government unless they allow Chega in the coalition but at this point they aren't inclined to.

It makes me think of the Dutch election in November 2023. Gert Wilders' party won with a slim plurality and has yet to form a government. I suspect EU interference behind the scenes.

INTL - Netherlands Election - November 22, 2023

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67399766 Dutch election promises new era and shake-up in politics Published 1 day ago Share IMAGE SOURCE,EPA/GETTY IMAGES Image caption, A new centrist party led by Pieter Omtzigt (right) is ahead in the polls but Dilan Yeşilgöz (left) is tipped to be...

www.timebomb2000.com

Portugal is in suspense after an election produces no clear winner and a surging populist party

The election is taking place because Socialist leader António Costa resigned in November after eight years as prime minister amid a corruption investigation involving his chief of staff.

apnews.com

Portugal is in suspense after an election produces no clear winner and a surging populist party​

BY BARRY HATTON
Updated 10:37 PM EDT, March 10, 2024
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LISBON, Portugal (AP) — Portugal’s political future is hanging in the balance after a general election Sunday, with two moderate mainstream parties closely contesting the race and set to wait weeks for a decision on the winner after an unprecedented surge in support for a populist party that finished third.

The center-right Social Democrat-led Democratic Alliance won 79 seats in the 230-seat National Assembly, Portugal’s Parliament, after all votes cast in Portugal were counted.

The center-left Socialist Party, in power the past eight years, got 77 seats.

The deciding votes will come from voters abroad to distrubte the final four parliamentary seats after an election night full of suspense. That count could take more than two weeks.

The hard-right Chega (Enough) party came in third with 48 seats, a milestone result that presented an unprecedented challenge to politics-as-usual, underscoring a drift to the right in the European Union.

Smaller parties took the rest of the vote in an election that saw turnout rise to 66%, the highest level in Portugal for years.

The moderate Social Democrats and Socialists have alternated in power for decades in Portugal, and the surge in support for a radical right party pointed to a significant shift in Portugal’s political landscape and likely heralded a period of political uncertainty.

A minority government that has fewer than 116 seats in Parliament is at the mercy of opposition parties when it tries to pass legislation. Chega’s support could hold the key to a functioning government for the Social Democrats.

Chega, just five years old, tripled its vote from the last election in 2022. The result positioned the party as a kingmaker that potentially could hand the Social Democrats a parliamentary majority.

Whatever happens, Chega can no longer be ignored despite attempts to shun it by the mainstream parties.

“One thing is for sure tonight, the two-party system in Portugal is finished,” said Chega leader Andre Ventura.

He insisted that the Social Democrats should ally with Chega in parliament to create a majority. “We have a mandate to govern,” he said.

But Social Democrat leader Luis Montenegro, who likely would become prime minister if his alliance wins, said he would keep his campaign promise to shut out Chega and refuse to negotiate power-sharing with the populists. He said he expected to form a government on his own.

Ventura, a former law professor and television soccer pundit, has said he is prepared to drop some of his party’s most controversial proposals — such as chemical castration for some sex offenders and the introduction of life prison sentences — if that enables his party’s inclusion in a possible governing alliance with other right-of-center parties.

His insistence on national sovereignty instead of closer European Union integration and his plan to grant police the right to strike are other issues that could thwart his ambitions to enter a government coalition, however.

Chega ran its campaign largely on an anti-corruption platform. Graft scandals triggered the early election after former Socialist leader António Costa resigned in November after eight years as prime minister amid a corruption investigation involving his chief of staff. Costa hasn’t been accused of any crime.

That episode appeared to have hurt the Socialists at the ballot box.

Public frustration with politics-as-usual had already been percolating before the outcries over graft. Low wages and a high cost of living — worsened last year by surges in inflation and interest rates — coupled with a housing crisis and failings in public health care contributed to the disgruntlement.

The discontent has been further stirred up by Chega.

Sonia Ferreira, a 55-year-old financial manager voting in Lisbon, said the ballot is “decisive” because the continent needs to halt the growth of hard-right parties.

“We are seeing very extremist movements across the European Union and we must all be very careful,” she said.

The Social Democrats, too, were embarrassed just before the campaign by a graft scandal that brought the resignation of two prominent party officials.

Meanwhile, voters have expressed alarm at Portugal’s living standards as financial pressures mount.

An influx of foreign real estate investors and tourists seeking short-term rentals brought a spike in house prices, especially in big cities such as the capital Lisbon where many locals are being priced out of the market.

The economy feels stuck in a low gear. The Portuguese, who have long been among Western Europe’s lowest earners, received an average monthly wage before tax last year of around 1,500 euros ($1,640) — barely enough to rent a one-bedroom flat in Lisbon. Close to 3 million Portuguese workers earn less than 1,000 euros ($1,093) a month.

The number of people without an assigned family doctor, meantime, rose to 1.7 million last year, the highest number ever and up from 1.4 million in 2022.

Ventura, the Chega leader, cannily plugged into the dissatisfaction and has built a following among young people on social media.

Ventura has had a colorful career. He has gone from a practicing lawyer and university professor specializing in tax law to a boisterous television soccer pundit, an author of low-brow books and a bombastic orator on the campaign trail.

___​

Helena Alves contributed to this report.

 

[Scrapman]

There conflicted over socialism and nationalism.
They had a fast track to becoming a citizen there if you bought property and plenty of people were doing it , buying up vacant land and infusing new money into the system . While there aren't replacing there own threw birth or all there children are moving into cities they bitched about it and now it's stopped.

 

[Plain Jane]

What has been emphasized in this election and in Europe generally is that these populist parties are being driven by the young.

 

[Plain Jane]

Portuguese Center-Right Coalition Ends Socialists' 8-Year Reign; Populist Party Soars | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Portuguese Center-Right Coalition Ends Socialists' 8-Year Reign; Populist Party Soars​

BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, MAR 12, 2024 - 02:45 AM
In the latest demonstration of a broad swing to the political right among the peoples of Europe, a tight parliamentary election in Portugal has ended with the Socialist Party conceding that its 8-year grip on power has ended. A center-right coalition emerged with a thin edge, while a populist, anti-immigration, tough-on-crime party emerged as a major force.

With 99% of votes tallied, the center-right AD coalition had 79 seats to the Socialists' 77. But the biggest storyline is the phenomenal surge by the populist Chega party, which is suddenly the third-largest in Portugal, despite having been founded less than five years ago.
via Bloomberg

The AD party won a plurality, but not enough of the 230 total seats to create a new government on its own. Luis Montenegro, who leads the Social Democratic Party -- the largest in the victorious AD coalition -- has repeatedly promised he wouldn't form a ruling coalition with Chega, whose positions he has characterized as “often xenophobic, racist, populist and excessively demagogic” He forcefully reiterated his stance after Sunday's results were posted. "Of course I will keep my word,” said Montenegro. “I would never do such evil to myself, my party and my country as to not fulfill the commitments I made so clearly.”

On the other hand, citing the results, Chega leader Andre Ventura said his party has a rightful place in a new ruling coalition. “We are available to provide a stable government in Portugal,” he said. “AD asked for a majority. Today the Portuguese spoke out and said they want a two-party government from AD and Chega.”

The Socialist Party could Montenegro box Chega out of the process, by abstaining from a parliamentary vote to form the next government, according to the Financial Times. However, without Chega, Portugal may be left with a fragile minority government that will likely collapse much sooner than later. "Since Portugal became a democracy 50 years ago, only two minority governments have lasted a full term," write Bloomberg's Joao Lima and Henrique Almeida.

Chega Party leader Andre Ventura on the campaign trail with Portuguese actress Maria Vieira (EPA via Independent)
Fittingly capturing the exasperation of its growing share of the voting public, Chega translates to "Enough." The party has championed tighter rules on immigration, while also promising to slash taxes and boost pension payments. Portugal have been beset by low wages and soaring housing costs -- the latter trend compounded by what Fortune called a "buying frenzy" among wealthy foreigners. Chega's tough-on-crime rhetoric has included promoting chemical castration for certain sex offenders.

Chega's Ventura has also stressed the need to rid Portugal of Socialist corruption, a message that resonated all the more when Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa resigned in November amid an investigation of alleged influence-peddling relating to lithium and hydrogen concessions.

African migrants in Lisbon (via Euractiv)

Congratulations for Chega poured in from similar parties across Europe, such as Alternative for Germany, Spain's Vox, Hungary's Fidesz and the Freedom Party of Austria. “The Portuguese are defending their identity and their prosperity, and sweeping away the corrupt socialists!” said Jordan Bardella, president of France's National Rally Party. In January, former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro endorsed Ventura for the office of president.

Portugal's results have no doubt shaken Europe's establishment, as they further evidence a growing, popular rejection of the leftist agenda. The June 6-9 European Union parliamentary elections could be very interesting...

 

[Plain Jane]

The Duran discussed the Portuguese Election, the rise of Chega, and the likelihood that the other parties will refuse to form a government with them.

Examples are given for other EU countries in the same fix.

R/T 17:20

View: https://youtu.be/vWr-LpumeXA?si=9eUWwx9Hhq2VCHXO

 

[Plain Jane]

This podcast is new to me but he goes into more detail about the history of Portuguese politics and how numbers have played out.

R/T 10:16

View: https://youtu.be/NlzfZSq-HWg?si=N1vmAf-cvdMDVgsK