POL November 3: The 2020 U.S. ELECTION DAY MAIN THREAD
- Thread starter The Hammer
- Start date
TheSearcher
Are you sure about that?
rafter
Since 1999
In the town where I drive the school bus (pop. 9000) the polling place is a convention/community center with a parking lot that holds 200 cars and has a parking lot next to it that holds 400 cars. When I drove by at 7:15 both lots full and people driving around waiting for someone to pull out.
I vote in a very small town where there is only a post office. In the 6 years I have lived/voted there I normally was the only one in there with the voting staff. Today I waited in line behind 6 people. They had set up more places to vote to the point there was no room to add anymore. Tables and standup booths were full. When I came out still 6 more people in line. Obviously some had never voted, or hadn't for a long time because when they were trying to put their ballots in the machine they wouldn't go because the had only checked the boxes and not filled them in, so they were having to do them over. Over all it took me about 20 minutes.
West Central Missouri.
I vote in a very small town where there is only a post office. In the 6 years I have lived/voted there I normally was the only one in there with the voting staff. Today I waited in line behind 6 people. They had set up more places to vote to the point there was no room to add anymore. Tables and standup booths were full. When I came out still 6 more people in line. Obviously some had never voted, or hadn't for a long time because when they were trying to put their ballots in the machine they wouldn't go because the had only checked the boxes and not filled them in, so they were having to do them over. Over all it took me about 20 minutes.
West Central Missouri.
SmithJ
Veteran Member
Realistically Biden can win without Florida. Trump cannot win without Florida.
bw
Fringe Ranger
Yeah, faceborg would pretty much HAVE to ban that. They'd call it dark and a dog-whistle, but they know what it is.
The Hammer
Has No Life - Lives on TB
I think we're going to see turnout more massive than in 2008, when everyone just couldn't wait to elect Obama.
And believe me, very few are rushing to the polls FOR Joe Biden. It's either for Trump or anti-Trump.
And believe me, very few are rushing to the polls FOR Joe Biden. It's either for Trump or anti-Trump.
That is entirely conjecture on your part. If a normally blue state or two would happen to flip, yes he can. We won't have the answers until after the count is complete.
Raggedyman
Res ipsa loquitur
day late
money? whats that?
I just got back from voting. Walked in, walked out. I did ask the poll workers and got some encouraging news. They said early turn out was kinda heavy but, as normal, slowed after the work day began. However, they also told me that at this point in person voting was running at about 52%. That is unheard of. Usually turn out runs at between 30% and 35%. And that doesn't include mail in ballots. They have two machines that accept the ballot and tells you what number you are. One machine showed over 350 ballots submitted. I used the other one and I was #52.
SmithJ
Veteran Member
Sure Mathematically Trump can win with California or New York flipping Red. But that aint gonna happen.
But I stand by my statement. Realistically Trump cannot win if he loses Florida. Theoretically he could, but if he's running so behind that he loses Florida, he's not gonna sweep the rust belt. But that ain't gonna happen, either. He is gonna win Florida.
And yes its ALL conjecture until the votes are certified.
et2
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Just got back. 15 in line when I got there. About 40 when I left. 9:45. The left side of the parking lot had about 8 cars in it ( the two lots are split in the middle by driveway and curb). The right side almost full. If that’s a indicator or not ... I parked on the right side for a reason.
adgal
Veteran Member
I voted early - on Friday - with no problems. The polling place was busy - but I didn't have to wait. DH got up early this morning - he wanted to get there when the polls opened. He left the house at 5:45 - got to the polling place at 5:55 - and there was already a line. He said he had to wait outside in line for about ten minutes before he got in. This never happens in our town.
ETA: Northwest Illinois - conservative (but, because of Chicago, my presidential vote probably won't count.)
ETA: Northwest Illinois - conservative (but, because of Chicago, my presidential vote probably won't count.)
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The Hammer
Has No Life - Lives on TB
straightstreet
Life is better in flip flops
Praying for you and your healing!
I’ll be here!
I’m home anyway with a medical thing, will be glued to the threads, in between ice packs and pain meds.
justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/biden-camp-says-red-mirage-will-fall-blue-wave-key-factors-show-trump
Trump camp: Turnout models confirm momentum shift to president, belie Dems' 'red mirage' script
By Carrie Sheffield
8-10 minutes
The Trump campaign on Monday said its internal voting turnout models show President Trump with robust victories in the battleground states of Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada. They also said that if Trump wins enough votes on Tuesday evening, then he will declare victory — regardless of claims by Democrats.
Beyond internal polling, further external evidence shows a growing momentum shift toward Trump in the last 10 days, accelerating through the final weekend: tightening polls in battleground states where Trump had trailed, along with surprising GOP strength in early voting results and polls showing late breakers tilting toward Trump.
On a press call with reporters Monday afternoon, senior leaders of the Trump campaign said opponent Joe Biden's campaign was lagging behind in early vote tallies to levels that would be impossible to overcome after Election Day turnout. For example, Nick Trainer, director of battleground strategy for Trump 2020, said that Biden was leading in Pennsylvania Monday evening by approximately seven hundred fifty thousand votes heading into Election Day.
"But we know right now, there are 2.6 million Trump voters likely to show up tomorrow," Trainer said. "And there are 1.5 million remaining Biden voters to show up tomorrow," he said, which would leave an insurmountable gap for Biden of 350,000 votes.
Trainer said their turnout modeling showed Trump will win Election Day in Arizona by 150,000, Wisconsin by more than 100,000, Nevada by approximately 50,000 votes, and 400,000 votes in North Carolina, Ohio and Michigan.
In the prize state of Florida, Trainer said, "President Trump has an election day margin of over 500,000 net ballots." The South Florida Sun Sentinal reported that through Sunday, the ballot differential was "Razor thin: 66.2% of registered Democrats have already voted, as have 65.9% of Republicans."
"It's pretty simple out there," he told reporters. "If the voters that we know are still left in the electorate and still wanting to participate in this election, show up tomorrow — as they've been telling us for well over two years now — President Trump is going to have four more years in the White House, and the Democrats are scrambling and panicking."
Trump told reporters in Milwaukee on Monday night that he thinks his campaign is in a much stronger position than it was four years ago.
"The campaign — I mean, you're a witness to it," Trump told reporters after the Air Force One arrival at General Mitchell International Airport in the swing state of Wisconsin. "The campaign has even more energy. The crowds are much bigger. Much bigger. And we had the biggest crowds ever, and these crowds are much bigger. Nobody has ever seen this. This has never happened before. And there's a — there's a tremendous spirit ... And, you know, I'm honored to be a part of it. I'm just a part of it. I'm representative of it, but I'm really just a part of it, and I'm really honored by it. And I think you're going to see all of those people voting, and it's going to be a wave. And it's my opinion, but I've never seen anything like it either."
Trump campaign officials also said the Biden campaign is preparing election-night messaging saying that a so-called "Red Mirage" — an apparent Election Night Trump victory — will eventually succumb to a "Blue Wave," through counting of ballots still in the mail, provisional ballots and court challenges.
"We know that they're going to start using the phrase 'Red Mirage,'" Tim Murtaugh, Trump 2020 campaign manager, told reporters Monday. "We know that they're going to start throwing up the smokescreen imagining postal delays and claiming that — falsely claiming — that simply because they mailed out ballots to voters that have not come back yet that those votes — which have not been cast — should be counted. "All sorts of different shenanigans like that."
Murtaugh said Democrats were planning to using celebrities in their "Red Mirage" ad campaigns to try to convince people that "this is the right and reasonable thing to do, when in fact, they're trying to buy time so they can go to court and steal this thing."
"The fact that they have television ads already tested and queued up, ready to go to try to convince people that this delay is prudent — when in fact what they're doing is trying to buy time so they can circumvent laws," Murtaugh said.
Murtaugh rejected claims that Trump would refuse to concede if he loses or that he would prematurely claim victory.
"If the president wins on election night, and it is clear — or the morning after — and it is clear that he has won, he's going to say so," Murtaugh said. "And so we already have seen the Democrats in the media — through some anonymous sources — saying, 'Oh the President's going to declare victory no matter what happens.' That's not the case. If the president wins, he's going to declare that he won."
Bloomberg News reported that senior leaders of Biden's campaign "are increasingly worried about insufficient Black and Latino voter turnout in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania with only four days until the election."
The Biden campaign did not respond to request for comment from Just the News. Progressives in the media have pointed to favorable signs for Biden, including reporting on data from Tufts University showing an enormous groundswell among 18-29 year old voters, who lean heavily left, in early voting and requests for absentee ballots.
However, data from polling firm The Trafalgar Group, which specializes in tracking "hidden" Trump voters and successfully predicted GOP victories in 2016 and 2018 missed by many other mainstream pollsters, found that late breaking voters are moving toward Trump, especially on the issue of COVID-related shutdowns. Trafalgar polling also showed Trump up almost 5 in Pennsylvania and leading in Michigan, Arizona and North Carolina.
The Des Moines Register poll last week showed Trump pulling away with a 7-point lead in Iowa.
And the RealClearPolitics battleground spread has narrowed — from Biden +5 to Biden +2.8 in the last 2 weeks.
Gallup's presidential approval stood at 46% last week (up from 39% in June), showing rising satisfaction for Trump.
Even with some positive polling data, the overwhelming number of national polls showed Trump losing to Biden, sometimes by double digits. Because of this, Trump campaign officials cautioned against relying too heavily on polls.
"I would stress to everybody — take polls at this point with a grain of salt," Justin Clark, deputy campaign manager, told reporters Monday. "We're at a point right now where we are talking about who is actually showing up and voting tomorrow. Polls mean less than they have at any point in this election."
Both Clark and Trainer said that hard data on who had registered and voted was far more useful to the campaign than traditional polls.
"What we're telling you is not a poll, these are actual votes," Clark said. "These are modeled voters that we think are going to turn out tomorrow. So RealClearPolitics may have their averages and their polling averages, but at this point with as many votes cast as there have been cast, the only real way to measure where we are is to look at who has voted and who is remaining to vote."
Trainer said polling sampling methodology, which often produces wide margins of error (a criticism leveled last week by Brexit engineer Nigel Farage in an interview with Just the News), also yields far less precise results than their turnout models.
"There are over 8 million Floridians that are participating in this election now," Trainer said. "We can learn a lot about those people, and certainly a lot more about about the state as a whole, than an 800-person sample, via a traditional poll. Modeling is what modern modern campaigns do now, to better understand the electorate. And the model tells us the President Trump is going to win tomorrow."
Trump camp: Turnout models confirm momentum shift to president, belie Dems' 'red mirage' script
By Carrie Sheffield
8-10 minutes
The Trump campaign on Monday said its internal voting turnout models show President Trump with robust victories in the battleground states of Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada. They also said that if Trump wins enough votes on Tuesday evening, then he will declare victory — regardless of claims by Democrats.
Beyond internal polling, further external evidence shows a growing momentum shift toward Trump in the last 10 days, accelerating through the final weekend: tightening polls in battleground states where Trump had trailed, along with surprising GOP strength in early voting results and polls showing late breakers tilting toward Trump.
On a press call with reporters Monday afternoon, senior leaders of the Trump campaign said opponent Joe Biden's campaign was lagging behind in early vote tallies to levels that would be impossible to overcome after Election Day turnout. For example, Nick Trainer, director of battleground strategy for Trump 2020, said that Biden was leading in Pennsylvania Monday evening by approximately seven hundred fifty thousand votes heading into Election Day.
"But we know right now, there are 2.6 million Trump voters likely to show up tomorrow," Trainer said. "And there are 1.5 million remaining Biden voters to show up tomorrow," he said, which would leave an insurmountable gap for Biden of 350,000 votes.
Trainer said their turnout modeling showed Trump will win Election Day in Arizona by 150,000, Wisconsin by more than 100,000, Nevada by approximately 50,000 votes, and 400,000 votes in North Carolina, Ohio and Michigan.
In the prize state of Florida, Trainer said, "President Trump has an election day margin of over 500,000 net ballots." The South Florida Sun Sentinal reported that through Sunday, the ballot differential was "Razor thin: 66.2% of registered Democrats have already voted, as have 65.9% of Republicans."
"It's pretty simple out there," he told reporters. "If the voters that we know are still left in the electorate and still wanting to participate in this election, show up tomorrow — as they've been telling us for well over two years now — President Trump is going to have four more years in the White House, and the Democrats are scrambling and panicking."
Trump told reporters in Milwaukee on Monday night that he thinks his campaign is in a much stronger position than it was four years ago.
"The campaign — I mean, you're a witness to it," Trump told reporters after the Air Force One arrival at General Mitchell International Airport in the swing state of Wisconsin. "The campaign has even more energy. The crowds are much bigger. Much bigger. And we had the biggest crowds ever, and these crowds are much bigger. Nobody has ever seen this. This has never happened before. And there's a — there's a tremendous spirit ... And, you know, I'm honored to be a part of it. I'm just a part of it. I'm representative of it, but I'm really just a part of it, and I'm really honored by it. And I think you're going to see all of those people voting, and it's going to be a wave. And it's my opinion, but I've never seen anything like it either."
Trump campaign officials also said the Biden campaign is preparing election-night messaging saying that a so-called "Red Mirage" — an apparent Election Night Trump victory — will eventually succumb to a "Blue Wave," through counting of ballots still in the mail, provisional ballots and court challenges.
"We know that they're going to start using the phrase 'Red Mirage,'" Tim Murtaugh, Trump 2020 campaign manager, told reporters Monday. "We know that they're going to start throwing up the smokescreen imagining postal delays and claiming that — falsely claiming — that simply because they mailed out ballots to voters that have not come back yet that those votes — which have not been cast — should be counted. "All sorts of different shenanigans like that."
Murtaugh said Democrats were planning to using celebrities in their "Red Mirage" ad campaigns to try to convince people that "this is the right and reasonable thing to do, when in fact, they're trying to buy time so they can go to court and steal this thing."
"The fact that they have television ads already tested and queued up, ready to go to try to convince people that this delay is prudent — when in fact what they're doing is trying to buy time so they can circumvent laws," Murtaugh said.
Murtaugh rejected claims that Trump would refuse to concede if he loses or that he would prematurely claim victory.
"If the president wins on election night, and it is clear — or the morning after — and it is clear that he has won, he's going to say so," Murtaugh said. "And so we already have seen the Democrats in the media — through some anonymous sources — saying, 'Oh the President's going to declare victory no matter what happens.' That's not the case. If the president wins, he's going to declare that he won."
Bloomberg News reported that senior leaders of Biden's campaign "are increasingly worried about insufficient Black and Latino voter turnout in key states like Florida and Pennsylvania with only four days until the election."
The Biden campaign did not respond to request for comment from Just the News. Progressives in the media have pointed to favorable signs for Biden, including reporting on data from Tufts University showing an enormous groundswell among 18-29 year old voters, who lean heavily left, in early voting and requests for absentee ballots.
However, data from polling firm The Trafalgar Group, which specializes in tracking "hidden" Trump voters and successfully predicted GOP victories in 2016 and 2018 missed by many other mainstream pollsters, found that late breaking voters are moving toward Trump, especially on the issue of COVID-related shutdowns. Trafalgar polling also showed Trump up almost 5 in Pennsylvania and leading in Michigan, Arizona and North Carolina.
The Des Moines Register poll last week showed Trump pulling away with a 7-point lead in Iowa.
And the RealClearPolitics battleground spread has narrowed — from Biden +5 to Biden +2.8 in the last 2 weeks.
Gallup's presidential approval stood at 46% last week (up from 39% in June), showing rising satisfaction for Trump.
Even with some positive polling data, the overwhelming number of national polls showed Trump losing to Biden, sometimes by double digits. Because of this, Trump campaign officials cautioned against relying too heavily on polls.
"I would stress to everybody — take polls at this point with a grain of salt," Justin Clark, deputy campaign manager, told reporters Monday. "We're at a point right now where we are talking about who is actually showing up and voting tomorrow. Polls mean less than they have at any point in this election."
Both Clark and Trainer said that hard data on who had registered and voted was far more useful to the campaign than traditional polls.
"What we're telling you is not a poll, these are actual votes," Clark said. "These are modeled voters that we think are going to turn out tomorrow. So RealClearPolitics may have their averages and their polling averages, but at this point with as many votes cast as there have been cast, the only real way to measure where we are is to look at who has voted and who is remaining to vote."
Trainer said polling sampling methodology, which often produces wide margins of error (a criticism leveled last week by Brexit engineer Nigel Farage in an interview with Just the News), also yields far less precise results than their turnout models.
"There are over 8 million Floridians that are participating in this election now," Trainer said. "We can learn a lot about those people, and certainly a lot more about about the state as a whole, than an 800-person sample, via a traditional poll. Modeling is what modern modern campaigns do now, to better understand the electorate. And the model tells us the President Trump is going to win tomorrow."
desertvet2
Veteran Member
I pray that America will move forward to greatness and lift the world into the light.
But I feels like.....it is gonna be a really rough ride from today on...
But I feels like.....it is gonna be a really rough ride from today on...
POL - Strap in kids; tomorrow (now today, 11/3) everything changes
Just a quick note. Tomorrow, no matter who wins the election, everything changes. HOW things change will depend on the winner. But change they will, and this country will never be the same. As Scotty said in Star Trek, The Voyage Home, “Hang on lass, it gets bumpy from here.” Lock & load...
DH and I voted early this year for the first time ever..we are in central Virginia. We are red rural area.
I was reading the Virginia thread this morning on Free Republic....they are reporting very long lines in the red pro gun counties and also Virginia Beach. Blackface's virus lock down has very nearly ruined the beach economy.
One voter said no line at the most liberal area in Northern VA. Maybe Virginia is in play.
The rules here say mail in ballots must be received before election day.
Please when you give info on this thread..tell was where you are ...and if you are in a liberal or conservative area.
I was reading the Virginia thread this morning on Free Republic....they are reporting very long lines in the red pro gun counties and also Virginia Beach. Blackface's virus lock down has very nearly ruined the beach economy.
One voter said no line at the most liberal area in Northern VA. Maybe Virginia is in play.
The rules here say mail in ballots must be received before election day.
Please when you give info on this thread..tell was where you are ...and if you are in a liberal or conservative area.
bw
Fringe Ranger
In other words, you're not seeing Florida as the critical state, but merely as a bellwether for how the voting goes.
Where in Northern Virginia? I would love to go.
CaryC
Has No Life - Lives on TB
Did you mean only for those in VA?
Or for us all?
If for us all: MS, and not just red, but dark red.
erichtmobile
Senior Member
Voted at about 8am this morning in Collin County Texas. Only about 8 others in the gym voting.
There was a black dude making a little fuss, he wasn't registered in our county by the sound of it, officials were offering him a provisional ballot.
Lots of trump flags on trucks this morning.
There was a black dude making a little fuss, he wasn't registered in our county by the sound of it, officials were offering him a provisional ballot.
Lots of trump flags on trucks this morning.
straightstreet
Life is better in flip flops
Loretta Van Riet
Trying to hang out with the cool kids.
What an UPLIFTING ad!!!!!!
straightstreet
Life is better in flip flops
Lone_Hawk
Resident Spook
Harnett County, NC
We got back from voting a little while ago. We waited to miss the before work rush. Reps from both parties out front handing out sample ballots as per usual. No one took a Democrap sample. We didn't have to wait in line to vote. But going by the count on the machine, in person voting was heavy this morning early.
For the first time, our ballots had party affiliation for ALL candidates, including judges etc., which has never happened before. It is going to really help the Republican down ballot vote for sure.
We got back from voting a little while ago. We waited to miss the before work rush. Reps from both parties out front handing out sample ballots as per usual. No one took a Democrap sample. We didn't have to wait in line to vote. But going by the count on the machine, in person voting was heavy this morning early.
For the first time, our ballots had party affiliation for ALL candidates, including judges etc., which has never happened before. It is going to really help the Republican down ballot vote for sure.
et2
Has No Life - Lives on TB
well then PA knows where he lives. And who stole their vote
I mean everywhere..
Broken Arrow
Heathen Pagan Witch
Rural North east Wyoming, our small town of about 1K people. We were 22 & 23 to vote about 8am. Prob spent more time with small town gossip than we actually did voting. Everyone was very cheerful. 99% Red area.