WAR North Korea Main Thread - All things Korea May 12th - May 18th

[onetimer]

Han warns of pre-emptive strike in case of imminent N.K. missile attack

2017-05-16 15:13
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SEOUL, May 16 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's Defense Minister Han Min-koo warned Tuesday that his country will launch a pre-emptive strike if there are clear signs of an imminent North Korean missile attack.

His remarks came two days after the communist state fired another ballistic missile, which it claimed was a mid- to long-range missile capable of carrying a "large-size, heavy" nuclear warhead and targeting the continental United States.

"Our position is that we can launch a pre-emptive strike to reduce damage on our side if there are clear signs of an imminent North Korean missile attack," Han told a session of the National Assembly's National Defense Committee.

Han was referring to the North's possible attacks using short-range Scud or mid-range Rodong missiles. Scud missiles with ranges of 300-500 kilometers are seen as targeting South Korea, while Rodong missiles with ranges of some 1,300 km can put Japan in their crosshairs.

During the parliamentary session, Han noted that the South Korean military detected the early signs of the North's latest missile provocation, and that both Seoul and Tokyo have shared the assessment that the missile was an intermediate-range missile rather than an intercontinental one.

Asked about the possibility of the United States having carried out cyberattacks to thwart Pyongyang's past missile launches, Han gave a negative answer.

After a series of the North's failed missile launches, including two last month, speculation has persisted that Washington might have employed the "left of launch" strategy that mobilizes cyber or electronic warfare tools to neutralize hostile missile threats.

"We have checked the possibility (of the strategy). ... We believe it is possible in theory, but it is very difficult (to use the technology in military operations) at this point in time," Han said.

"We have heard that the current (development) level (of the left of launch technology) has yet to reach a stage to guarantee (the successful disruption of a missile launch)," he added.

sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)

http://m.yna.co.kr/mob2/en/contents_en.jsp?cid=AEN20170516008700315&site=0200000000&mobile

 

[pinkelsteinsmom]

So, is our fleet just floating over there looking like fools? This is a joke right? We are afraid of the lil puke and TRUMP showed his gun but didn't pull the trigger. Another line in the sand that has moved all over the place quietly.

 

[northern watch]

Missile Defense 101: North Korea could hit with little warning

By Eric Talmadge, Associated Press
TOKYO May 16, 2017, 7:25 AM ET

The scenario has become pretty familiar by now. Sometime in the early morning, a missile roars off its launcher in North Korea and flies off to a splash zone somewhere in the Pacific Ocean. But what if Pyongyang wasn't just testing its hardware or drilling its troops? How long would it take to hit its real-world, primary targets?

Below, two experts talk to The Associated Press about what would happen if North Korea fired at targets near and far. They are David Wright, senior scientist and co-director of the Global Security Program of the Union of Concerned Scientists, and analyst Markus Schiller, of ST Analytics, an independent space technology and rocketry consulting company based in Germany.

The takeaway: It would get very messy, very fast.


SEOUL: FROM ESSENTIALLY ZERO TO 6 MINUTES

Well before North Korea had a nuclear program, it realized it could hold the 10 million people of greater Seoul, the capital of South Korea, hostage with the threat of a massive, conventional artillery strike from its dug-in gun batteries concentrated just north of the Demilitarized Zone.

If it were to launch such a strike first, the first wave of shells could land with essentially no warning. Estimates vary as to how much damage such an attack could actually wreak Pyongyang can't, as it has claimed, reduce Seoul to a sea of ashes before a pulverizing counterattack but it would be considerable.

Seoul's defenses are porous.

It has Patriot missile-defense batteries, but they are intended to protect against short-range Scud missiles. They would not help against an artillery attack. The much-talked-about, state-of-the-art THAAD missile defense system deployed in South Korea this month also cannot protect Seoul from either artillery or incoming missiles it isn't designed to do that from its current site.

To make things uglier, the North could hit the South with chemical or biological warheads.

One nuclear scenario that has been raised is an attack on the city of Busan, a major port sometimes used by the U.S. Navy. That's an option Pyongyang might consider if it believed it was under immediate threat of attack and wanted to make a show of overwhelming force to keep Washington from committing further.



TOKYO: 10-11 MINUTES

Japan also has Patriot missiles it deploys, among other places, on the grounds of its Defense Ministry in downtown Tokyo.

It helped develop with the U.S. the ship-based Aegis system, which is designed to intercept medium-range missiles and potentially intermediate-range ones that means missiles with a range of less than about 5,000 kilometers (3,100 miles).

The Patriots are designed to intercept an incoming missile at its "terminal stage" just before it hits if the Aegis' ship-based SM-3 missiles fail to intercept them farther out and higher up, at mid-course.

Schiller has one strong caution at this point: It remains unknown whether Pyongyang actually has a working nuclear warhead, "not just some nuclear device that goes boom in a tunnel, under laboratory conditions."

But serious questions have been raised over whether this multilayer strategy, even when augmented by the THAAD system, would be a reliable missile shield.

One problem is whether it could be overwhelmed by a "swarm" attack several incoming missiles at the same time.

North Korea, likely aware of that fear, simultaneously launched four medium-range Scud ER missiles into the Sea of Japan in March.

Recognizing the current shield's weaknesses, some Japanese ruling party lawmakers are pushing for a first-strike plan of Japan's own, using ballistic or cruise missiles, or F-35 stealth fighters.



SAN FRANCISCO: 30-34 MINUTES

To be classified as an ICBM intercontinental ballistic missile the missile must have a minimum range of 5,500 kilometers (3,400 miles). North Korea does not at this time have such a missile, as far as the experts can tell. The missile it launched on Sunday came close, flying for 30 minutes on a highly "lofted" trajectory that if flattened out would suggest a range of about 4,500 kilometers (2,800 miles).

That's good enough to get it to Guam, the key U.S. military hub in the Pacific, in about 15 minutes.

Beyond that, its capabilities are in doubt.

Schiller explains that the time it takes for an ICBM to cover its first 5,500 kilometers is usually a little more than 20 minutes. If you fire at something 10,000 kilometers (6,200 miles) away, however, he says it will still reach it in less than 30 minutes.

So while Wright suggests 33-34 minutes to San Francisco, Schiller predicts a faster trip to the West Coast saying a missile could hit Seattle (8,000 kilometers, or 5,000 miles away) and Los Angeles (9,000 kilometers, or 5,600 miles) away in under 30 minutes from launch.

But that's assuming a North Korean launch from within its own territory.

To get around the distance problem, and to bolster its stealth, North Korea is already developing submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Experts believe it will take years for the North to have a sub-based missile it could actually use in an attack, but it successfully tested its first one named Polaris, the same name as the first U.S. missile of that kind last year.



WASHINGTON, D.C.: 30-39 MINUTES

New York and Washington are less than 11,000 kilometers (6,800 miles) away. That translates into about 30 minutes according to Schiller, or 38-39 minutes by Wright's estimate.

The United States relies in large part on its Ground-based Missile Defense system, with bases in Vandenberg Air Base in California and Fort Greely, Alaska, to intercept incoming ICBMs.

According to the U.S. Missile Defense Agency, which estimates that North Korea now "fields hundreds of missiles that can reach U.S. forces forward deployed to the Republic of Korea and Japan," U.S. missile defense systems like the GMD and THAAD "discourage adversaries from believing they can use ballistic missiles to coerce or intimidate the U.S. or its allies."

But critics point out the GMD, which has cost $40 billion, had six out of its nine test intercepts fail between 2002 and 2016. They claim the strategy has "no credible plan for defeating countermeasures" such as decoys.

"In its current form, strategic missile defense is a waste of resources at best and dangerous at worst," the Union of Concerned Scientists wrote in a report published last year. "It is not a reliable defense under real-world conditions; by promoting it as a solution to nuclear conflict, U.S. officials complicate diplomatic efforts abroad, and perpetuate a false sense of security that could harm the U.S. public."

Wright said that aside from stopping an incoming missile, another big question is what would or should a U.S. president do in response.

"The timelines are short," he said. "Even for long-range missiles, there are a lot of steps that go into detecting the launch and figuring out what it is, leaving the president with maybe 10 minutes to decide whether to launch a retaliatory strike."

What if the president does decide to hit back hard?

Land-based ICBMs could be in the air within five minutes. Submarine-based missiles in 15.

And once launched, they can't be recalled.



Talmadge is the AP's Pyongyang bureau chief. Follow him on Twitter @EricTalmadge and on Instagram at erictalmadge.


http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/missile-defense-101-korea-hit-warning-47434707

 

[northern watch]

Guam residents cast wary eye at North Korea after launch

By Haven Daley, Associated Press
HAGATNA, Guam May 16, 2017, 4:28 PM ET

While most of the United States is still out of reach of a missile launched by North Korea, the U.S. territory of Guam, a key military hub in the Pacific, could be within range.

That realization, coming after a missile launch over the weekend, had residents of the island casting a wary eye amid rising nuclear tensions between Pyongyang and Washington. Some worried they might find war at their doorstep, while others say they are more concerned about the potential loss of vital tourism dollars than they are a nuclear attack.

"I think it is scary since North Korea is just insane, to echo the general consensus about North Korea," said Farron Taijeron, a 29-year-old scuba instructor in Guam.

Patricia Anna Cruz, a 62-year-old substitute teacher, noted that even if you don't go to war, "war may be right next to you."

U.S. experts said the missile launched over the weekend could have a range of 4,500 kilometers (about 2,800 miles), putting Guam easily within range.

Guam is armed with the U.S. Army's missile defense system known as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, the same system recently installed in South Korea.

"Whether or not they truly have that capability (of reaching Guam), I'll leave that up to our DoD partners to worry about that threat," said Charles Esteves, Guam's Office of Civil Defense administrator. "But with all the layers of defense ... basically we provide that sense of assurance to the public."

Some locals are more concerned about the perception of tourists than any actual threat.

"Guam's primary industries are tourism and of course the military," Esteves said. "So if we start seeing a significant change in our tourist numbers then maybe there's a need for concern."

Gelica Sablan, a 25-year-old Guam resident and college student, echoed those concerns: "Other people from neighboring Asian counties or any country in general might not want to come here because they might think it's a threat that their safety might be compromised."

Some analysts believe the missile, if proven in further tests, could possibly reach Alaska and Hawaii. Others doubt it has that range.

Tasha Rine, a registered nurse from Kenai, Alaska, said the threat from North Korea was a "little too close for comfort.

"I think it should be causing all of us concern at this point," she said while sitting on the steps of a federal building in downtown Anchorage, just after eating her first-ever reindeer dog, purchased from a street vendor. "We live in a very unstable world, and I think that's deeply concerning, and it should be."



Associated Press writer Caleb Jones in Honolulu and Mark Thiessen in Anchorage, Alaska, contributed to this report.


http://abcnews.go.com/International...nts-cast-wary-eye-north-korea-launch-47444980

 

[northern watch]

Are there civil defense shelters on Guam? What is the civil population expected to do when the sirens go off?


NW

 

[Housecarl]

So, is our fleet just floating over there looking like fools? This is a joke right? We are afraid of the lil puke and TRUMP showed his gun but didn't pull the trigger. Another line in the sand that has moved all over the place quietly.

Trump is showing one gun, not the other ones pointed at them from concealment under the sea or in silos in CONUS.

Besides, if this "goes hot" the fixed wing assets will be the follow up, not the opener.

 

[Illini Warrior]

Trump is showing one gun, not the other ones pointed at them from concealment under the sea or in silos in CONUS.

Besides, if this "goes hot" the fixed wing assets will be the follow up, not the opener.

those converted boomers are sitting on the bottom just outside the NK borders - they'll launch so freeking close that the TOT will be a few minutes for some of the targets ....

 

[Housecarl]

those converted boomers are sitting on the bottom just outside the NK borders - they'll launch so freeking close that the TOT will be a few minutes for some of the targets ....

I meant the "real" boomers...

ETA: I just cannot see this not opening up preemptedly conventionally by either side at this point. The table stakes for all parties are just too high.