ALERT NEW CREDIBLE INFO from Wuhan....

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KittyKatChic

Contributing Member
The gov't there canceled all Chinese New Year celebrations.
The actual celebrations of parades etc. were cancelled. But the actual period of shut down for factories, businesses, and most transport has NOT been cancelled. But I also do NOT expect this to be over for China to go back to work even on the delayed date of February 9th.
Basically anything in terms of resupply in the worldwide JIT system from China, just got pushed back another week already as the Chinese president just extended the current holiday. I suspect we are going to have major shortages and slow start back and an increased transport delay.
 

Bensam

Senior Member
The timeline of a week to 10 days to start seeing supply chain issues will be absolutely correct! Here is my thinking why:

Currently China is celebrating Chinese New Year and most everything is closed, including shipping and most other transport. This happens EVERY year and the JIT global market reflects this fact and prepares for this by ordering extra stock for duration of the holiday. That is also why most companies close their year end inventory on the last day of January. Historically this will be the companies lowest amount of inventory on hand and offers reduced tax liability as well so..

This means that when China comes back (or is supposed to come back) from holiday, there is going to be NO influx of new inventories to replenish the dwindling supply on hand...

Also there is always a shipping slow down when every factory in China clogs the transport carriers when they return from holiday. In addition to whatever didn't make it out of port before the holiday shutdown. This slow down typically makes a 10-15 day ship a 25-30 ship throughout the remainder of February and March.

The timing of the outbreak has been fortuitous IMO because the entire world had more supplies than normal on hand. That is about to change drastically though. IMO
Ok folks, we should make a list of those products which originate in China which are currently available but may not be in a few months. It is my understanding that a lot of our drugs are made there. What else should we be stocking up on?
 

Ragnar

Contributing Member
The actual celebrations of parades etc. were cancelled. But the actual period of shut down for factories, businesses, and most transport has NOT been cancelled. But I also do NOT expect this to be over for China to go back to work even on the delayed date of February 9th.
Basically anything in terms of resupply in the worldwide JIT system from China, just got pushed back another week already as the Chinese president just extended the current holiday. I suspect we are going to have major shortages and slow start back and an increased transport delay.
The black out period on shipments arriving is about 4 weeks - basically the month of March.

March‘s store inventory is already on the water headed this way. we were set to start receiving the first inventory produced post CNY the week of April 6. Should the Factories be delayed from opening Feb 10 that buts that inventory at risk and that is inventory slated to be in stores week of the 20th.

So the inventory crunch could not be felt until end of April first of May... this is when people will start the bigger panic.. not saying they won’t panic before which could spike sales and fast forward shortages just that the masses usually panic when the start seeing shortages. hope This is solved before then as the economic impact is going to be more than people comprehend if not
 

Ragnar

Contributing Member
Ok folks, we should make a list of those products which originate in China which are currently available but may not be in a few months. It is my understanding that a lot of our drugs are made there. What else should we be stocking up on?
even if the medicine is not made there - good chance some of the components are. same with electronics
most shoes come from China as well as a lot of textiles ( not as critical but important to economy)
 

KittyKatChic

Contributing Member
March‘s store inventory is already on the water headed this way.
FYI: This is what I am hearing from friends still in global supply chains. The global crisis declaration has changed things, apparently. So I won't swear to this and would LOVE to be wrong but...

It is my understanding that the every vessel still on the water, will stay on the water. Any illnesses will be managed on board. And vessels already in port, will be held in port under shipboard quarantine.
 

Ragnar

Contributing Member
FYI: This is what I am hearing from friends still in global supply chains. The global crisis declaration has changed things, apparently. So I won't swear to this and would LOVE to be wrong but...

It is my understanding that the every vessel still on the water, will stay on the water. Any illnesses will be managed on board. And vessels already in port, will be held in port under shipboard quarantine.
I have not heard that but will inquire about tomorrow - i can see this happening. Only thought is that the crew is going to be isolated together for 3-4 weeks by the time they arrive so that might serve as the quarantine time for them... I don’t think the crew comes into too much contact with doc workers (except paperwork handoff but I am not familiar with that part of the process. I’ll post what I find out

that would change it all for sure. I remember last time there was a port strike - it took forever to catchback up
 

KittyKatChic

Contributing Member
I have not heard that but will inquire about tomorrow - i can see this happening. Only thought is that the crew is going to be isolated together for 3-4 weeks by the time they arrive so that might serve as the quarantine time for them... I don’t think the crew comes into too much contact with doc workers (except paperwork handoff but I am not familiar with that part of the process. I’ll post what I find out

that would change it all for sure. I remember last time there was a port strike - it took forever to catchback up
Please do. The declaration of global outbreak was within the last few hours. I'm sure everyone is trying to get in front of this and emails are flying. What we see in the morning will tell the tell, so to speak.
 

2DEES

Contributing Member
If your looking for down and dirty, non woo, the listed site will fill the bill! Don't know if this is posted else where? The 29th 30th ad 31st are long reads That's why I didn't post them all. Too Long. Just read the parts for Coronavirus-China. Check back every day or subscribe to e-mails if your interested? There is one thing that bothers me though, Are these correct numbers being put out? Are we being told the truth?? Its been such a gigantic reaction this makes me wonder? Russia has closed it's eastern border and the news on TV says don't have to wear masks, no real problem, blah,blah.blah. We have heard this nonsense before. As for me and mine, if I fell a mask,gloves etc. is necessary we will wear them, no matter what WHO, CDC or any other health organization or person(doctor or otherwise) recommends! I really don't trust them. It seems they are more interested in keeping trade going and it doesn't how many people die.

ProMED-mail


I know your going to say a double standard here. I do read their posts and appreciate their hard work! But as you know garbage in garbage out. Are they being told the truth? So are the numbers accurate?? We may never know.
 

thompson

Unrepentant WrongThinker
Hal Turner is a reputable source?
Not a person I would ever lend any credence to...

Just a few snips - read the whole entry. Due diligence is also a survival skill.


Harold Charles "Hal" Turner (born March 15, 1962) is an American far-right political commentator from North Bergen, New Jersey.

Turner's viewpoints typically encompass Holocaust denial,[1] conspiracy theory, white supremacy,[citation needed] and have included calls for assassination of government officials. In August 2010, he was convicted for making threats against three federal judges with the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, for which he spent two years in prison.

Turner has sporadically hosted The Hal Turner Show, usually on shortwave radio station WBCQ, since 2002, as well as a corresponding blog, which has changed URLs frequently and has occasionally spread hoaxes and fake news.

[...]

Turner was a paid informant for the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) for several years, supplying information about right-wing groups to federal agents.[28] The original allegations that Turner acted as an informant for the FBI surfaced in 2008 after unidentified hackers claimed on Turner's website's forums that they had read email correspondences between him and an FBI agent, apparently his handler.
 

Snyper

Veteran Member
The OP doesn’t give a link?
There was no "info posted".
The OP just gives a link without the content.
The content is supposed to be in the OP so one doesn't have to use the link to see it.

Get your facts straight please.
They are. :)

ALL original posts that start a thread MUST have the entire story, start to finish, unless its impractical due to extreme length or for other technical reasons. (If so, the member needs to insert a notice at the end, something to the effect of: "Was unable to post story content because..." However, that has to be legit, rather than a person's blanket excuse for never posting content.) The story must also include the attribution and link to the original story. OPs that do not contain this content will be deleted and the thread starter will receive an infraction.
 
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