OT/MISC Millennials are moving to the exurbs in droves

[Housecarl]

Hummm.....

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.axios.com/cities-suburbs-exurbs-millennials-552dd0fd-2223-4be4-b457-5af2cfd94ee7.html

Steve LeVine
12 hours ago

Millennials are moving to the exurbs in droves

For years, an unwavering certitude of industry, think tanks, demographers, policy-makers and city planners everywhere has been that humanity is moving to the city: We just needed to figure out how to house, employ and feed everyone in a condensed space.

Yes, but: As more and more millennials marry and have children, that presumption is coming under scrutiny.

What's happening: The forecast of global massive urbanization was important since it suggested that vast swaths of countryside would empty out, and we would adopt entirely new lifestyles.

• But, in a mea culpa at Brookings, William Frey, a demographer, said that, based on new census data, he has changed his mind on what he thought was a mass urbanization trend. He still thinks that cities will attract "young people — especially well-off, affluent millennials and post-millennials."
• "But this won't be most cities," he tells Axios. "And, for this younger generation, what I see is more clustered developments within the suburbs, and smaller metros, greater reliance on public transportation and perhaps ride-hailing and self-driving cars."

What happened: Frey said it might be "just a 'return to normal' of the suburbanization we saw prior to the Great Recession." But Karen Harris, managing director at Bain Macro Trends, tells Axios that, for one thing, it's probably time for millennials — given their stage in life — to start moving out to the 'burbs with their kids.

Distance has changed: Harris also says that very few experts took note of the changed economics of space.

• It's cheaper to move information from place to place
• Amazon's model of cheap and fast delivery of goods has shortened perceived distances.
• Self-driving cars will also make people more likely to perceive places as closer together, since they won't have to become aggravated driving there.

In terms of implications, according to Harris:

• Businesses need to adjust: They may have to build more locations, perhaps smaller and at greater distances. But that doesn't necessarily mean astronomical costs, as among the new ways to deliver stuff will be inexpensive drones.
• Upping their game: Brick and mortar shops will have to "re-focus their mission on providing amazing customer experiences."
• Big suburbs: By 2025, the population of exurbs may exceed those in urban centers for the first time. Developers will have to envision these exurbs as semi-self-contained communities not reliant on nearby cities.

 

[Housecarl]

Brookings article...

For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-...ty-growth-continues-to-fall-off-census-shows/

THE AVENUE

Early decade big city growth continues to fall off, census shows

William H. FreyTuesday, May 29, 2018

Suburban growth outpaces city growth for second straight year
Newly released census data for city population growth through 2017 show that what I and others previously heralded as the “decade of the city” may be less valid during the waning years of the 2010s. While most big cities are still gaining population, the rates of that gain are falling off for many of them as the nation’s population shows signs of broad dispersal.

Author

William H. Frey
Senior Fellow - Metropolitan Policy Program

The new numbers for big cities—those with a population of over a quarter million—are telling. Among these 84 cities, 55 of them either grew at lower rates than the previous year or sustained population losses. This growth fall-off further exacerbates a pattern that was suggested last year. The average population growth of this group from 2016 to 2017 was 0.83 percent—down from well over 1 percent for earlier years of the decade and lower than the average annual growth rate among these cities for the 2000 to 2010 decade (see Figure 1).

2018.05.25_Brookings Metro_Bill Frey_Census City Growth Decline_Fig1

While the diminution in this rate may seem small, it is sizeable in aggregate population numbers. Between July 2016 and July 2017, these large cities together gained 424,000 people, well below gains exceeding 600,000 for each of the first five years of the decade. In the most recent year, New York City’s gain of 7,300 people is dwarfed by gains exceeding 90,000 residents during the first two years of the decade.

New York’s situation is emblematic of this trend because the most pervasive growth declines are seen in the biggest of these cities (download Table 1 here). Among the 25 largest cities, 21 registered growth rates from 2016 to 2017 that were either negative or lower than the previous year; for 15 of these 25 cities, the same year’s growth rates were the lowest of the decade. Figure 2 depicts the situation for five areas with more than one million residents.

2018.05.25_Brookings Metro_Bill Frey_Census City Growth Decline_Fig2

It shows declines in cities with both low growth rates (New York City, Los Angeles, and Chicago) and high growth rates (Houston and San Jose).[1] The reason for these declines may be attributable to high costs of living in some, increased attractiveness of the suburbs, or economic circumstances associated with industrial decline in an entire region.

The latter almost certainly impacted some of the 16 areas that lost population over the recent period, including Baltimore, St. Louis, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Cleveland (see Map 1). Yet, this is the largest number of cities, among those with over a quarter-million population, to sustain losses for any year of this decade. (In 2010, the peak year for big city growth, only four cities—Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit, and Toledo—sustained population losses.)

2018.05.25_Brookings Metro_Bill Frey_Census City Growth Decline_Map1

There are still cities where growth has shown upticks in recent years, including affordable Midwest places like Columbus, Cincinnati, and Kansas City; suburban cities like Henderson, Nev.; or those that lie on the periphery of pricey regions, such as the interior California city of Fresno. Another outlier of this trend is Atlanta, whose growth has risen precipitously.

Yet the pervasiveness of declining big city growth, which began to become evident with last year’s numbers, reflects a broader dispersal of the nation’s population—from large metropolitan areas to smaller ones, from cities to suburbs, and from the Snow Belt to the Sun Belt. These patterns are apparent with domestic migration flows and regional population shifts. They reflect the easing up of constrains toward personal and job mobility as the economy continues to revive.

Still another indicator of this dispersion is the return of the suburban growth advantage over cities—now apparent for the second year in a row, after five years of a city growth advantage, for the combined populations of the nation’s 53 largest metropolitan areas, each with populations exceeding one million (see Figure 3).

2018.05.25_Brookings Metro_Bill Frey_Census City Growth Decline_Fig3

The huge attention given to the city growth revival in the early part of this decade was warranted given the long history of suburbanization in the U.S. The housing crunch and Great Recession in the previous decade (2000-2010) led to a situation in which the choices of potential suburban movers, especially young adult millennials, were constrained, and who, either by choice or necessity, fueled city growth levels, which outpaced those of the suburbs.

Now suburban growth again exceeds city growth, though at more modest levels than in the early 2000s, and, for many areas, due more to a city growth slowdown than a suburban growth pickup. It is still the case that city growth exceeds suburban growth in 17 of these 53 metropolitan areas, including Boston, Atlanta, Washington, D.C., San Francisco, and Seattle, though no longer New York (download table 2 here). Yet between 2010 and 2011, this was the case for 25 of these metros, and the trend seems to be shifting toward a renewed suburban advantage.

The broad population dispersal now underway in the nation, as evidenced in recent census releases, appears to be upending many of the demographic trends that seemed to make the 2010s look unique only a few years ago. This new census release of city data suggests that some moderation should be in order to claims that this will be the decade of the city.

[1] The numbers for Houston reflect change through July 1, 2017—before Hurricane Harvey hit the metropolitan area.

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[Magdalen]

My son is a "millennial", and his two primary places of employment have been online. In fact, neither of the companies he has worked for has ever had a brick and mortar store because the work they do is online too. He can live anywhere he wants to, and believe me, the big city was never even an option as far as he was concerned.

Regards,

magdalen

 

[dstraito]

I wonder how many retiring baby boomers have had enough do the big city and moved like I did

 

[Illini Warrior]

and believe me THEY change the demographics for the worst - plan on your taxes skyrocketing to cover the newly elected school board & park district "dreams" of Utopia ...

every election will be THEM vs US >>>>> chiefly senior citizens and long time residents against " it needs to grow" ....

 

[SunBurntBeatle]

and believe me THEY change the demographics for the worst - plan on your taxes skyrocketing to cover the newly elected school board & park district "dreams" of Utopia ...

every election will be THEM vs US >>>>> chiefly senior citizens and long time residents against " it needs to grow" ....

This is so true.

 

[nomifyle]

I wonder how many retiring baby boomers have had enough do the big city and moved like I did

I left the big city 8 years ago for what I consider very rural. I'm about 30 miles in three directions from walmart, other than that there are a few small stores where one can buy a few groceries, a lot of these places serve prepared food. Since I don't buy bread and milk I have no need to shop at these small stores except for prepared food from time to time when I don't want to cook. I've hardly ever looked back and I never ever thought I would be able to give up New Orleans, my visits are getting farther and farther apart.

Judy

 

[Zahra]

Apparently the so-called "experts" failed to take into account the fact that housing in most cities costs significantly more than similar or better and more spacious housing in surrounding suburbs and their off-shoot surrounds. All of those relatively recent working college grads as well as all of the middle class workers need to live someplace affordable after all, and with the exception of hell holes like Detroit, that won't be in the cities!

 

[Bardou]

I wonder how many retiring baby boomers have had enough do the big city and moved like I did

Where I live, they're leaving - the baby boomers. There's no industry here to employ millennials unless they want to work for the government, railroad or utilities. When the dam was being built this was a growing community. From what I hear from the old timers, we had City of Paris (a high end department store), Woolworth's, JC Penny's, etc. All that went away when the dam was finished. No jobs and it has remained that way since the middle 60's. One seller I spoke with (she had a frickn big mouth - grating on me), screaming how she hated Jerry Brown, I'm getting the hell out of here! She said she was going to Idaho or Montana. I told her to go to Montana and buy a house as close as you can get to Yellowstone. You'll be happy there. Cool, one less asshole to deal with here. They're everywhere.

When will the think tanks get it that nothing stays the same and not everyone wants what they think people want. Millenials are coming around. As they have children, they see what's going to be the best opportunities for them and their children. It isn't in any city, cities are being ran over by the homeless and the infrastructure is falling apart. BTW, newly retired people are moving here as the old timers are leaving for worse off grounds.

 

[Faroe]

Why would anyone want to raise kids around drug addicts, jihadis, ghetto apes, and walking tuburculosis cases?
Given that nothing is cheaper in the city, I see no advantages.

 

[vestige]

IMO the OP article is hogwash.

(no reflection on the poster)

 

[coalcracker]

Let's cast some doomer shadows onto this trend....

Can you imagine a worse place than the suburbs/exurbs in a time when the distribution of goods and services break down? Made up with many thousands of individualists, there is no coordinated society there. They can't share the road and drive civilly in times of plenty. How will they organize to provide defense from the inner-city hordes of marauders? They won't. They live next door to tens of thousands of people whom they never talk to. They will be ravaged. The low-hanging fruit for evil predators. These are the ones who will cry for UN troops, Russian troops, Chinese troops, any troops, to come in and restore order. It'll either become a scorched wasteland or an enclave of oppressed prisoners. Count me out. Additionally, I suggest the quality of life there even today is not good. Nothing beats a small, rural town far from the city.

 

[Millwright]

Let's cast some doomer shadows onto this trend....

How will they organize to provide defense from the inner-city hordes of marauders? They won't. They live next door to tens of thousands of people whom they never talk to. They will be ravaged. The low-hanging fruit for evil predators.

They WILL BE the first wave of takers.

 

[mortgageboss]

In my RE ,market, people are definitely moving away from the urban core/downtown area. Prices get more expensive the closer to downtown you go.

Even some of the suburbs are too expensive for first time home buyers and they are moving to the next county over and commuting to their downtown jobs.

As for living downtown in a condo, no thank you. I like having a little space between me and the neighbor. Living in the suburb is no big deal for me, as my office is also in the suburbs.

 

[Ravekid]

Here in Indianapolis, our downtown growth has skyrocketed. The urban leaders in many cities, not just ours, are trying to make pockets of their cities like mini-NYC type places. They add mass transit, what they can afford, either rail or bus-rapid transit systems. They add car sharing services. The problem is that prices have skyrocketed. Young people are attracted to the big city, to the square feet of office space that many will end up working in. They need to be close to work to save gas, maybe not own a car because their college costs were about triple from what folks were paying just twenty years ago. Right now, the newer apartments with a pool, fitness center will run one $1,000 - $1,200 a room in these growth areas. Homes in these gentrified areas are going for $300K+ for larger, family sized homes (new, completely remodeled)

The reason these people flee once they get married and have a kid is simple: Schools. City schools are still having serious issues. Lower income kids just have issues, and those issues carry over to the schools. These people can pay for a $300Kish home in the city plus private school, or they can pay the same for a home in burbs and have amazing public schools. Most move.

Can you imagine a worse place than the suburbs/exurbs in a time when the distribution of goods and services break down? Made up with many thousands of individualists, there is no coordinated society there. They can't share the road and drive civilly in times of plenty. How will they organize to provide defense from the inner-city hordes of marauders? They won't. They live next door to tens of thousands of people whom they never talk to.

I have no idea what suburbs you've lived in, but the ones here in the Indy metro area usually have people who are very well connected. Lots of our suburbs grew due to people wanting better schools for their kids. Many parents are engaged, they have parties together, their kids play together, etc.. Also, lots of small towns out in the more rural areas in the Midwest might not be ones best bet either. Places that were booming during UAW union wage era are now dealing with poverty and everything that brings. Daily heroin ODs in some months, EBT usage, subsidized housing, meth...the list goes on and on.

 

[vessie]

and believe me THEY change the demographics for the worst - plan on your taxes skyrocketing to cover the newly elected school board & park district "dreams" of Utopia ...

every election will be THEM vs US >>>>> chiefly senior citizens and long time residents against " it needs to grow" ....

Oh, I see you've been to North Bend, Wa.! Lol!

It has been discovered by Seattleites and 'Eastsiders' (Bellevue, Kirkland etc.) who have had enough of the mess they made of those cities, and are bailing out to raise their kids out here 'in the country'.

Taxes are going up to hold up the infrastructure here, schools, roads, sewer district needs to be added onto Again because of all the new neighborhoods that are being built. V

 

[Melodi]

Cities can be "fun" for awhile, especially when you are relatively young and have some sort of job that pays for one; even living in a group house for adults can be "fun" for a few years; that all tends to stop when people get married (legally or common law) and then again when they have kids.

It is one thing to share a room in a group house or live in a one-room studio apartment when you are both 27 years old and childless; that loses its charm really quickly when/if the baby is on the way; the roommates get worried, the crib doesn't fit next to the bed and then the shock of realizing that all those "cool" places to "hang out" are not child friendly and the property costs and rents for even a one bedroom are now so high that BOTH salaries can't pay it and leave anything left for food, much less child care.

So people move further out where they can afford to live but at least the highest earning parent (if not both of them) can keep their jobs and afford child care (at least for one or two).

The "urbanization" myth happens I've noticed, nearly every time a large generational "grouping" of young people hit their early 20's and "move in" and it fades when those folks hit their early 30's for a few years until their youngest siblings or oldest kids repeat the pattern.

Social planners LOVE the urban idea, especially if they are "full of" the idea that they can "save the planet" by packing humans into versions of Tokyo via urban planning and get people "used" to the idea of living like folks mostly do in Sweden (hint, even in Sweden the most recent generation did their best to buy up old "summer houses" in the Country and remake them for year round living, and if they worked in IT they live there, otherwise they live there part time).

Very few people I know in Sweden actually enjoy living in identikit apartments with 2.5 bedrooms (if you are lucky) a tiny living room and small kitchen; although at least there, storage units are built for each apartment and there are community areas like playgrounds and even saunas for the locals (you check out a key at the front office).

There will always be some people who think city life is just wonderful, but mostly they tend to be the very young, the childless and some retired people; with individual exceptions, the rest tend to just tolerate it.