Considering the importance of the outcome I figured I'd start the thread now...HC
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexicos-election-is-in-play-1529862690
OPINION THE AMERICAS
Mexico’s Election Is in Play
The leftist López Obrador leads in the polls. But don’t rule out a surprise result.
By Mary Anastasia O’Grady
June 24, 2018 1:51 p.m. ET
3 COMMENTS
With one week to go before Mexico’s July 1 presidential election, most polls favor left-wing candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the Morena Party by at least 10 points. But many Mexicans are still hanging onto the hope that he will be defeated by either National Action Party (PAN) candidate Ricardo Anaya or Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate José Antonio Meade.
These optimists have their reasons, and it’s worth making a record of them ahead of the vote. In previous runs for president, AMLO, as the front-runner is popularly known, has earned a reputation as a bad loser. If he is defeated this time, after his followers were told he was a shoo-in, he won’t react well. Even the Spanish daily El País, which in a June 3 analysis assigned a high probability to an AMLO victory, admitted that it isn’t “guaranteed.”
AMLO styled himself the anticorruption candidate because Mexicans are fed up with a thieving political class. Over the past six years, during the PRI government of President Enrique Peña Nieto, the president’s family, his administration, the state-owned oil company Petróleos Mexicanos and multiple PRI governors—once touted as the party’s new generation of leaders—have been credibly accused of flagrant corruption. Though Mr. Meade is considered clean, PRI baggage has badly damaged his chances.
Mr. Anaya, who is in a coalition with the left-wing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) and is running second to AMLO in most polls, has also come under suspicion. Earlier this year Mr. Peña Nieto’s attorney general announced he was investigating allegations that the PAN candidate engaged in an illicit land deal and money laundering. Publicizing an ongoing investigation is prohibited and Mr. Anaya, who denied the charges, alleged dirty PRI tricks. But the damage was done to his candidacy.
AMLO is hardly the antidote to any of this. His own record is stained, and he has a problem coming clean about it.
Take, for example, the construction of an elevated highway in Mexico City during his mayoralty from 2000 to 2005. He claims the project records are public. That is not true. Multiple no-bid contracts, including, according to Mr. Anaya, deals totaling $8 million for a single contractor, are part of what Team AMLO marked “classified” before it left power.
Writing on Jan. 20, 2016, in the Mexican daily El Universal, columnist Salvador García Soto observed that inside Mexico City government it is well known that the process wasn’t transparent: “There is much more information that is classified since 2005 and if it were to be declassified it would cause [AMLO] serious credibility problems due to information that speaks of ‘shady or irregular’ handling in the assignment of contracts and the surcharge that was paid for that great work.”
For someone who bills himself as morally superior to his opponents, Mr. López Obrador also has a weird collection of friends and supporters. One of the more colorful is René Bejarano, who worked in AMLO’s city government but is better known for being caught on video in 2004 packing a valise with stacks of cash from Argentine businessman Carlos Ahumada.
To counter facts about shady deals and slippery friends, AMLO also calls himself the “antiestablishment” candidate. Morena, unlike the PRI and PAN, has never held the presidency. That hardly qualifies the lifetime politician as an outsider. But it might explain some of his support.
A lot of uncertainties remain. One problem pollsters have in getting a clear picture of the electorate’s preferences is the high number of Mexican households that refuse to participate in surveys. Add the undecided vote, which runs at least 10% in most surveys and above 30% in a few. By assigning undecided votes to the candidates proportionately, some pollsters may be distorting the picture.
AMLO supporters are hard-core and unlikely to be undecided. Many AMLO opponents, on the other hand, plan to pull the lever for whoever looks like he can beat the left-wing demagogue. They know that if Mr. López Obrador wins, he will bring the PRD into his fold, giving him a likely majority in Congress. If that happens, he will have presidential power not seen since President Carlos Salinas de Gortari (1988-94).
This is unsettling given his authoritarian style, and counteracting it is a priority for many voters. They may be undecided but they are not contemplating a vote for AMLO. If their votes go heavily for, say, Mr. Anaya and if turnout is heavy, AMLO could be defeated.
Those are a lot of “ifs” and the odds today favor AMLO But the vote making Donald Trump the U.S. president, the Brexit referendum and the Colombian referendum on President Juan Manuel Santos’s deal with the terrorist group FARC all surprised pollsters. An AMLO loss isn’t out of the question.
Write to O’Grady@wsj.com.
Comments
William WahlSUBSCRIBER
33 minutes ago
I'd like to believe none of these corruptions would ever happen in the US but then I look to the long track of accusations against Hillary Clinton and have to correct my thinking. Dishonesty appears magnetic to government.
Likethumb_up
XAVIER L SIMONSUBSCRIBER
42 minutes ago
Good column that very much reflects the state of play and main arguments pro and con of the three main candidates. The only thing I differ on with Ms. O'Grady is that I believe that AMLO is now a shoo-in.
I wish it weren't true because he scares the bejesus out of me, but I am afraid we are stuck with him. This is a man with socialist ideas that when I grew up in Mexico 65 years ago were more than anything else Marxist but have been cleansed from that label since then.
Likethumb_up1
J
SUBSCRIBER
1 hour ago
We live in Guanajuato considered the most conservative and Catholic state in Mexico. It has been the bastion of PAN conservatism for decades.
Everyone we ask here tell us they are voting for AMLO. He should win big, control the Federal legislature and bring along several state governorships.
Trump and AMLO, who knows what might happen but the personal fireworks will give us quite a show.
For links see article source.....
Posted for fair use.....
https://www.wsj.com/articles/mexicos-election-is-in-play-1529862690
OPINION THE AMERICAS
Mexico’s Election Is in Play
The leftist López Obrador leads in the polls. But don’t rule out a surprise result.
By Mary Anastasia O’Grady
June 24, 2018 1:51 p.m. ET
3 COMMENTS
With one week to go before Mexico’s July 1 presidential election, most polls favor left-wing candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the Morena Party by at least 10 points. But many Mexicans are still hanging onto the hope that he will be defeated by either National Action Party (PAN) candidate Ricardo Anaya or Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) candidate José Antonio Meade.
These optimists have their reasons, and it’s worth making a record of them ahead of the vote. In previous runs for president, AMLO, as the front-runner is popularly known, has earned a reputation as a bad loser. If he is defeated this time, after his followers were told he was a shoo-in, he won’t react well. Even the Spanish daily El País, which in a June 3 analysis assigned a high probability to an AMLO victory, admitted that it isn’t “guaranteed.”
AMLO styled himself the anticorruption candidate because Mexicans are fed up with a thieving political class. Over the past six years, during the PRI government of President Enrique Peña Nieto, the president’s family, his administration, the state-owned oil company Petróleos Mexicanos and multiple PRI governors—once touted as the party’s new generation of leaders—have been credibly accused of flagrant corruption. Though Mr. Meade is considered clean, PRI baggage has badly damaged his chances.
Mr. Anaya, who is in a coalition with the left-wing Revolutionary Democratic Party (PRD) and is running second to AMLO in most polls, has also come under suspicion. Earlier this year Mr. Peña Nieto’s attorney general announced he was investigating allegations that the PAN candidate engaged in an illicit land deal and money laundering. Publicizing an ongoing investigation is prohibited and Mr. Anaya, who denied the charges, alleged dirty PRI tricks. But the damage was done to his candidacy.
AMLO is hardly the antidote to any of this. His own record is stained, and he has a problem coming clean about it.
Take, for example, the construction of an elevated highway in Mexico City during his mayoralty from 2000 to 2005. He claims the project records are public. That is not true. Multiple no-bid contracts, including, according to Mr. Anaya, deals totaling $8 million for a single contractor, are part of what Team AMLO marked “classified” before it left power.
Writing on Jan. 20, 2016, in the Mexican daily El Universal, columnist Salvador García Soto observed that inside Mexico City government it is well known that the process wasn’t transparent: “There is much more information that is classified since 2005 and if it were to be declassified it would cause [AMLO] serious credibility problems due to information that speaks of ‘shady or irregular’ handling in the assignment of contracts and the surcharge that was paid for that great work.”
For someone who bills himself as morally superior to his opponents, Mr. López Obrador also has a weird collection of friends and supporters. One of the more colorful is René Bejarano, who worked in AMLO’s city government but is better known for being caught on video in 2004 packing a valise with stacks of cash from Argentine businessman Carlos Ahumada.
To counter facts about shady deals and slippery friends, AMLO also calls himself the “antiestablishment” candidate. Morena, unlike the PRI and PAN, has never held the presidency. That hardly qualifies the lifetime politician as an outsider. But it might explain some of his support.
A lot of uncertainties remain. One problem pollsters have in getting a clear picture of the electorate’s preferences is the high number of Mexican households that refuse to participate in surveys. Add the undecided vote, which runs at least 10% in most surveys and above 30% in a few. By assigning undecided votes to the candidates proportionately, some pollsters may be distorting the picture.
AMLO supporters are hard-core and unlikely to be undecided. Many AMLO opponents, on the other hand, plan to pull the lever for whoever looks like he can beat the left-wing demagogue. They know that if Mr. López Obrador wins, he will bring the PRD into his fold, giving him a likely majority in Congress. If that happens, he will have presidential power not seen since President Carlos Salinas de Gortari (1988-94).
This is unsettling given his authoritarian style, and counteracting it is a priority for many voters. They may be undecided but they are not contemplating a vote for AMLO. If their votes go heavily for, say, Mr. Anaya and if turnout is heavy, AMLO could be defeated.
Those are a lot of “ifs” and the odds today favor AMLO But the vote making Donald Trump the U.S. president, the Brexit referendum and the Colombian referendum on President Juan Manuel Santos’s deal with the terrorist group FARC all surprised pollsters. An AMLO loss isn’t out of the question.
Write to O’Grady@wsj.com.
Comments
William WahlSUBSCRIBER
33 minutes ago
I'd like to believe none of these corruptions would ever happen in the US but then I look to the long track of accusations against Hillary Clinton and have to correct my thinking. Dishonesty appears magnetic to government.
Likethumb_up
XAVIER L SIMONSUBSCRIBER
42 minutes ago
Good column that very much reflects the state of play and main arguments pro and con of the three main candidates. The only thing I differ on with Ms. O'Grady is that I believe that AMLO is now a shoo-in.
I wish it weren't true because he scares the bejesus out of me, but I am afraid we are stuck with him. This is a man with socialist ideas that when I grew up in Mexico 65 years ago were more than anything else Marxist but have been cleansed from that label since then.
Likethumb_up1
J
SUBSCRIBER
1 hour ago
We live in Guanajuato considered the most conservative and Catholic state in Mexico. It has been the bastion of PAN conservatism for decades.
Everyone we ask here tell us they are voting for AMLO. He should win big, control the Federal legislature and bring along several state governorships.
Trump and AMLO, who knows what might happen but the personal fireworks will give us quite a show.