ENVR Major X7.15 Solar Flare - Earth Facing

babysteps

babysteps

Veteran Member
Warm Wisconsin said:
### **5. November 4, 2003 - X28+ Flare**
- **Details:** The largest solar flare ever recorded, it originated from sunspot region 486 as it was rotating off the solar disk. While not fully Earth-facing, it had some peripheral effects.
- **Impact:** Limited due to its position, but still caused minor disturbances.
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Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, cuz there's a better than average chance of it lol

But I thought the Carrington event was like an x40 or 45 or something equally off-the-charts mind boggling.

an x28 is the largest one ever recorded?
 
J

Johnny Twoguns

Inactive
bw said:
Every month the earth's magnet field gets weaker, and what used to be a trivial X7 will eventually be a catastrophic X7.
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Yeppers. It is getting weaker because the Magnetic Field is collapsing. Then at some point in the future it will flip, somewhere, and there will be a different N and S pole. Back in the early 2000's there was talk here on TB about the shifting N Pole talk for years because that is when the N Pole started to shift, the N Pole started to gyrate like crazy for 6 weeks then there was the Anda Bachi EQ and tsumani happened, then the N Pole started to move.

A guy called Michael Mandeville had a web site on ancient stories (warnings) and he followed the gyrations of the N Pole diligently. There is a member here who actually knew him and was on his forum. His was the first place that I had seen in the early 2000's that showed it happening and went into some depth to show it was happening. Back then it was estimated that the N Pole would take several decades to reach Russian space (towards Siberia).

It is now half way there only 20 years later. The Magnetic Field is shifting, and it is fading. Something big is coming.
 
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J

Johnny Twoguns

Inactive
babysteps said:
Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, cuz there's a better than average chance of it lol

But I thought the Carrington event was like an x40 or 45 or something equally off-the-charts mind boggling.

an x28 is the largest one ever recorded?
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This is from a NASA site. Lol. How their tune has changed. They always said it was estimated to be a X28 CME (not a flare), up to this article anyway. It was the Europeans who estimated it as an X 45. (Major Ed Dames had been on Art Bell I think 3 times in a row, telling Art to watch the sun Art, watch the sun, 2003. Then the fabled Shot Across the Bow took place, and that X45 shot across the path of our planet by two days. Truly a shot across the bow.

I think the Carrington was estimated to be something like an X17?

Keep this in mind: Hence, an X2 flare is twice the strength of an X1 flare, an X3 flare is three times as powerful as an X1.

So an X is 10 times an M and 100 times a C. Within each letter class, there is a finer scale from 1 to 9. C-class flares are too weak to noticeably affect Earth. M-class flares can cause brief radio blackouts at the poles and minor radiation storms that might endanger astronauts. Although X is the last letter, there are flares more than 10 times the power of an X1, so X-class flares can go higher than 9. The most powerful flare on record was in 2003, during the last solar maximum. It was so powerful that it overloaded the sensors measuring it. They cut-out at X17, and the flare was later estimated to be about X45.

NASA Scientific Visualization Studio | X-Class: A Guide to Solar Flares

Flares happen when the powerful magnetic fields in and around the sun reconnect. They're usually associated with active regions, often seen as sun spots, where the magnetic fields are strongest. Flares are classified according to their strength. The smallest ones are B-class, followed by C, M...
svs.gsfc.nasa.gov svs.gsfc.nasa.gov
 
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S

shane

Has No Life - Lives on TB
bw said:
Every month the earth's magnet field gets weaker, and what used to be a trivial X7 will eventually be a catastrophic X7.
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That's my understanding, that our 'force field shields' that protect us from much of the intensity of solar flares and CME's are getting ever weaker and recently even quicker so.

I follow the latest solar goings on with my every morning checking in for the 2-3 min daily updates here...
Suspicious0bservers

Panic Early, Beat the Rush!
- Shane
 
Warm Wisconsin

Warm Wisconsin

Easy as 3.141592653589..
shane said:
That's my understanding, that our 'force field shields' that protect us from much of the intensity of solar flares and CME's are getting ever weaker and recently even quicker so.

I follow the latest solar goings on with my every morning checking in for the 2-3 min daily updates here...
Suspicious0bservers

Panic Early, Beat the Rush!
- Shane
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Since I have access to Open AI o1a. I thought I would ask it this question. This is its answer

You bring up a significant point regarding Earth's protective "force field," known scientifically as the **magnetosphere**. This magnetic field shields our planet from much of the harmful solar radiation and charged particles emitted by the sun during events like solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs).

---

### **Earth's Magnetic Field and Its Importance**

- **Magnetosphere:** Earth's magnetic field extends from the planet's interior out into space, where it interacts with the solar wind—a stream of charged particles emanating from the sun.

- **Protection Mechanism:** The magnetosphere deflects most of the solar wind, whose charged particles would otherwise strip away the ozone layer that protects Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation.

### **Observations of a Weakening Magnetic Field**

- **Gradual Decrease:** Scientific measurements over the past 150 years have shown that the strength of Earth's magnetic field has been **decreasing at a rate of about 5% per century**.

- **South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA):** One area of particular interest is the SAA—a region where the magnetic field is significantly weaker than average. This area stretches from Africa to South America and has been **expanding and weakening** over recent decades.

- **Pole Drift:** The magnetic north pole has been drifting from Canada toward Siberia at an accelerated pace, moving over 50 kilometers per year in recent times.

### **Causes Behind the Weakening Field**

- **Core Dynamics:** Earth's magnetic field is generated by the movement of molten iron alloys in its outer core—a process known as the geodynamo. Fluctuations in the flow patterns can lead to changes in the field's strength and direction.

- **Geomagnetic Reversals:** Throughout Earth's history, the magnetic field has undergone **reversals** where the magnetic north and south poles switch places. These reversals are irregular and occur every 200,000 to 300,000 years on average, but the last reversal happened about 780,000 years ago.

- **Not Unprecedented:** Weakening of the magnetic field is a natural part of these long-term cycles, and while the current decrease has raised discussions, it does not necessarily indicate an imminent reversal.

### **Implications of a Weakening Magnetic Field**

- **Increased Radiation Exposure:**
- **Satellites and Spacecraft:** A weaker magnetic field means that satellites orbiting Earth are more exposed to charged particles, which can lead to increased radiation doses and potential malfunctions.
- **Astronaut Safety:** Increased radiation levels pose risks to astronauts, particularly those on the International Space Station when passing through weaker regions like the SAA.

- **Technological Impacts:**
- **Navigation Systems:** Variations in the magnetic field can affect compasses and navigation systems that rely on magnetic north.
- **Communication Disruptions:** Enhanced radiation can lead to radio signal interference and disruptions in communication systems.

- **Biological Effects:**
- **Radiation Levels at Surface:** Earth's atmosphere continues to provide substantial protection, so the increased radiation at ground level remains minimal.
- **Migratory Species:** Some animals that rely on Earth's magnetic field for navigation may experience disruptions.

### **Recent Accelerations in Changes**

- **Rapid Pole Movement:**
- Since the 1990s, the magnetic north pole's movement has accelerated, leading scientists to update magnetic models more frequently.

- **Field Strength Measurements:**
- Data from satellites like the European Space Agency's **Swarm mission** have provided detailed insights into the declining field strength and the dynamics within Earth's core.

### **Scientific Perspectives**

- **Natural Phenomenon:**
- The weakening is considered part of Earth's natural magnetic fluctuations. While it presents challenges, it is not necessarily a cause for immediate concern regarding catastrophic events.

- **Monitoring and Research:**
- Scientists are closely monitoring changes to better understand the underlying mechanisms. Improved models help in predicting future changes and mitigating potential impacts on technology.

### **Protection Against Solar Activity**

- **Combined Shielding:**
- **Magnetic Field:** Deflects many charged particles.
- **Atmosphere:** Absorbs harmful radiation, including ultraviolet rays, X-rays, and gamma rays.

- **Weakening Field Implications:**
- **Increased Vulnerability:** A weaker magnetic field could mean a slight increase in the number of particles reaching Earth's atmosphere, potentially amplifying the effects of solar storms.
- **Geomagnetic Storms:** More intense geomagnetic storms could occur, leading to greater risks for power grids and communication networks.

- **Resilience Factors:**
- Even during periods of weakened magnetic fields, Earth's atmosphere remains a robust protective layer.
- Infrastructure can be adapted to withstand increased solar activity, and early warning systems can help mitigate risks.

### **Conclusion**

Your understanding touches on a critical aspect of Earth's interaction with solar activity. While it is correct that our magnetic field is weakening and has shown signs of more rapid changes recently, it is a complex process that occurs over geological timescales. The implications are significant for satellites, communication systems, and navigation, but catastrophic consequences are not expected in the immediate future.

---

### **Recommendations and Further Information**

- **Stay Informed:**
- **Space Weather Agencies:** Monitoring updates from organizations like NASA, ESA, and NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center can provide current information on magnetic field changes and solar activity.

- **Scientific Literacy:**
- **Educational Resources:** Exploring educational materials on geomagnetism can deepen understanding of these phenomena.

- **Technological Preparedness:**
- **Infrastructure Hardening:** Support and advocate for technological systems to be designed or upgraded to withstand increased geomagnetic activity.

---

### **Additional Resources**

- **European Space Agency (ESA) Swarm Mission:**
- Monitors Earth's magnetic field with a constellation of satellites.
- [ESA Swarm Mission Overview](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Swarm)

- **NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO):**
- Provides real-time data on solar activity.
- [NASA SDO Mission](https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/)

- **NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC):**
- Issues alerts and forecasts on space weather.
- [NOAA SWPC](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/)

---

**Feel free to ask if you'd like more details on any specific aspect, or if you have further questions about Earth's magnetic field and its interactions with solar activity.**
 
J

Johnny Twoguns

Inactive
Warm Wisconsin said:
Here is a list of Earth-facing X-class solar flares, including their sizes and dates, since the year 2000 up to my knowledge cutoff in September 2021. X-class flares are the most intense category of solar flares, and when they are Earth-directed, they can have significant effects on space weather, including geomagnetic storms, radio blackouts, and auroras.

---

### **1. July 14, 2000 - X5.7 Flare ("Bastille Day Event")**
- **Details:** This powerful Earth-directed flare originated from sunspot region 9077. It caused widespread geomagnetic storms, disrupted satellite operations, and led to auroras visible as far south as Texas and Florida.
- **Impact:** Significant technological disruptions and brilliant auroral displays.

### **2. April 15, 2001 - X14.4 Flare**
- **Details:** Emerging from sunspot region 9415, this was one of the most powerful flares observed at the time. It was Earth-directed and caused notable space weather effects.
- **Impact:** Radio blackouts and geomagnetic storms affecting satellite and communication systems.

### **3. October 28, 2003 - X17.2 Flare ("Halloween Solar Storms")**
- **Details:** Part of a series of intense solar activity known as the Halloween Solar Storms, this flare originated from sunspot region 486. It was Earth-facing and led to strong geomagnetic disturbances.
- **Impact:** Widespread power grid fluctuations, satellite malfunctions, and intense auroras.

### **4. October 29, 2003 - X10 Flare**
- **Details:** Following the previous day's activity, this Earth-directed flare continued the period of heightened solar storms.
- **Impact:** Extended geomagnetic storms and communication disruptions.

### **5. November 4, 2003 - X28+ Flare**
- **Details:** The largest solar flare ever recorded, it originated from sunspot region 486 as it was rotating off the solar disk. While not fully Earth-facing, it had some peripheral effects.
- **Impact:** Limited due to its position, but still caused minor disturbances.

### **6. September 7, 2005 - X17 Flare**
- **Details:** Originating from sunspot region 808, this Earth-directed flare was among the most intense of Solar Cycle 23.
- **Impact:** Caused geomagnetic storms and affected satellites and GPS systems.

### **7. December 5, 2006 - X9.0 Flare**
- **Details:** Emanating from sunspot region 930, this flare was Earth-facing and contributed to significant space weather events.
- **Impact:** Disruptions to satellite operations and high-frequency radio communications.

### **8. February 15, 2011 - X2.2 Flare**
- **Details:** The first X-class flare of Solar Cycle 24, originating from sunspot region 1158. It was Earth-directed.
- **Impact:** Triggered moderate geomagnetic storms and affected radio communications.

### **9. March 9, 2011 - X1.5 Flare**
- **Details:** Originated from sunspot region 1166 and was directed toward Earth.
- **Impact:** Caused minor disruptions in satellite communications and power grids.

### **10. August 9, 2011 - X6.9 Flare**
- **Details:** The strongest flare of Solar Cycle 24 at that time, from sunspot region 1263.
- **Impact:** Led to brief radio blackouts but minimal geomagnetic storm activity due to the CME's trajectory.

### **11. March 7, 2012 - X5.4 and X1.3 Flares**
- **Details:** A pair of powerful flares from sunspot region 1429, both Earth-directed.
- **Impact:** Caused geomagnetic storms, auroras at lower latitudes, and impacted satellite communications.

### **12. July 12, 2012 - X1.4 Flare**
- **Details:** Originated from sunspot region 1520 and was Earth-facing.
- **Impact:** Minor geomagnetic storms and brief radio blackouts.

### **13. October 23–25, 2013 - Multiple X-class Flares**
- **Details:** Sunspot region 1875 produced several Earth-directed flares:
- **October 25:** X1.7 flare
- **October 28:** X1.0 flare
- **Impact:** Caused minor geomagnetic disturbances and auroras.

### **14. October-November 2013 - Additional X-class Flares**
- **Details:** Sunspot regions 1882 and 1890 produced Earth-facing flares:
- **November 5:** X3.3 flare (not fully Earth-directed)
- **Impact:** Minor effects due to the partial Earth-facing position.

### **15. February 25, 2014 - X4.9 Flare**
- **Details:** The strongest flare of 2014 from sunspot region 1990. While originating near the eastern limb, it had some Earth-directed components.
- **Impact:** Caused brief radio blackouts and minor satellite disruptions.

### **16. October 19–27, 2014 - Series of X-class Flares**
- **Details:** Active sunspot region 2192 produced several Earth-facing flares:
- **October 22:** X1.6 flare
- **October 24:** X3.1 flare
- **October 25:** X1.0 flare
- **October 26:** X2.0 flare
- **October 27:** X2.0 flare
- **Impact:** Surprisingly minimal due to weak CME emissions despite the flares' strength.

### **17. March 11, 2015 - X2.2 Flare**
- **Details:** Originated from sunspot region 2297, partially Earth-directed.
- **Impact:** Moderate geomagnetic storms and radio blackouts in certain regions.

### **18. May 5, 2015 - X2.7 Flare**
- **Details:** From sunspot region 2339, was Earth-facing.
- **Impact:** Caused high-frequency radio blackouts and minor impact on navigation systems.

### **19. September 6, 2017 - X9.3 Flare**
- **Details:** The most powerful flare of Solar Cycle 24, originating from sunspot region 2673.
- **Impact:** Led to strong geomagnetic storms, GPS errors, and brilliant auroras observed at lower latitudes.

### **20. September 10, 2017 - X8.2 Flare**
- **Details:** Another major flare from sunspot region 2673 before it rotated off the visible solar disk.
- **Impact:** Caused geomagnetic storms and affected high-frequency communications.

### **21. July 3, 2021 - X1.5 Flare**
- **Details:** Originated from sunspot region 2838, this was the first X-class flare since 2017.
- **Impact:** Resulted in brief radio blackouts over the Atlantic Ocean; the CME was not fully Earth-directed.

---

**Notes:**

- **Solar Flares and Impact:** Solar flares are intense bursts of radiation emanating from the release of magnetic energy associated with sunspots. X-class flares are the most potent, and when accompanied by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) directed toward Earth, they can significantly impact space- and ground-based technological systems.
- **Geomagnetic Storms:** These are disturbances in Earth's magnetosphere caused by solar wind shocks and CMEs. They can disrupt power grids, satellite operations, GPS navigation, and radio communications.
- **Auroras:** High-energy particles from solar flares interacting with Earth's magnetic field cause auroras, commonly seen near polar regions but can be visible at lower latitudes during strong geomagnetic storms.

**Limitations:**

- **Knowledge Cutoff:** This list includes events up to my last update in September 2021. Any Earth-facing X-class solar flares occurring after this date are not included.
- **Data Sources:** Information is based on records from agencies such as NASA and NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). For the most recent events and detailed analyses, refer to their official releases.
- **Variability in Impacts:** The impact of each flare can vary based on factors like the flare's exact location on the sun, the associated CME's speed and direction, and Earth's magnetic field conditions at the time.

---

**For Further Information:**

- **NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO):** Provides real-time data and imagery of solar activity.
- **NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC):** Offers forecasts, alerts, and warnings about solar and geomagnetic activity.
- **Spaceweather.com:** A resource for current space weather conditions and observations.

---

**Disclaimer:** Solar activity is a complex and ongoing area of study. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this list, for the most current and detailed information, please consult official space weather agencies and scientific publications.
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That list is woefully incomplete.
For more than 15 years Nasa was known as "NEVER a straight answer" for a very good reason. They lied for years and years about solar flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, gigantic X flares, the size of earthquakes, wind storms leveling entire forests. It was a huge thing on TB in the early 2000's.

Oh, and all the giant comets that went through.

You think this .gov at all levels, and around the world, lying about EVERYTHING just started with covid? Since the 90's everything has been covered up or distorted.

The REAL lying about Climate Change started in the mid 90's. Of course they were also lying and covering up the clinton crimes with Red Chinese and Crips and Bloods, but what else is new?
 
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Countrymouse

Countrymouse

Country exile in the city
energy_wave said:
Right on Que. October 2nd is the beginning of the Jewish New Year right? And they have the ring of fire eclipse directly over the new Capitol of Jerusalem Trump helped create. And it's Ule 39? iirc the day debts are forgiven. Maybe tomorrow makes up for the missing 2022 stock mark crash that never happened.
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From what I'm reading, the annular eclipse tomorrow will only be visible in the South Pacific and very southernmost tip of South America--

apnews.com

October's 'ring of fire' solar eclipse will dazzle parts of South America and the Pacific

A “ring of fire" eclipse of the sun will cross the Pacific and the tips of Argentina and Chile. During Wednesday's annular solar eclipse, the moon will obscure all but a ring-shaped sliver of the sun.
apnews.com apnews.com
 
Melodi

Melodi

Disaster Cat
A flare this size is not a joke, but hopefully, it will simply result in some great light shows. The dangers or damage can't be predicted ahead of time because it isn't possible to know EXACTLY where such a flare will hit and what it might do.

It will probably cause some radio issues and problems with space-based objects. It could also cause power blackouts in some areas, like the one that took out part of the Canadian Grid a few years ago.

It isn't something to ignore, primarily if you work in astronomy, radio, communications, power production, or aviation. But it probably isn't an Ed Dames "Kill Shot" either.

Something to watch and be aware of but not panic over.
 
CaryC

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Blacknarwhal said:
I am pretty sure it's round. :D
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Bro. don't encourage the flat earthers. LOL

You have to distinguish between "round" like a Frisbee, or "round" like a ball. LOL

Just poking at you.

I guess it's a good thing the local volunteer fire dept. is having its semi annual fish fry the 5th, so we are eating out, in case the power goes out. Cat fish, hush puppies, fries, big ol' slab of onion, and pickles on the side. Make you not even notice the power is out.
 
Mark D

Mark D

Now running for Emperor.
Melodi said:
This is getting concerning, again not panic time, but concerning. Watch, pay attention, and if worried, at least unplug a lot of stuff and throw some of it in a clean metal garbage bin for a time.
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Remember to add a metal gasket (several layers of Aluminum Foil) between the lid and can, otherwise, putting electronics in the Bin will be pointless. And, remember to insulate the interior of the can with cardboard or foam, otherwise, putting electronics in the Bin will be pointless. =-)
 
Blacknarwhal

Blacknarwhal

Three-Time Trump Voter
CaryC said:
Bro. don't encourage the flat earthers. LOL

You have to distinguish between "round" like a Frisbee, or "round" like a ball. LOL

Just poking at you.

I guess it's a good thing the local volunteer fire dept. is having its semi annual fish fry the 5th, so we are eating out, in case the power goes out. Cat fish, hush puppies, fries, big ol' slab of onion, and pickles on the side. Make you not even notice the power is out.
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Sounds good. Fish fries up here are usually battered cod, and you don't get the hush puppies. We usually get cole slaw. Which is all right, but I kind of hate that my only real option for hush puppies is trying to find a still-operating Long John Silver's.
 
bw

bw

Fringe Ranger
CaryC said:
I guess it's a good thing the local volunteer fire dept. is having its semi annual fish fry the 5th, so we are eating out, in case the power goes out. Cat fish, hush puppies, fries, big ol' slab of onion, and pickles on the side. Make you not even notice the power is out.
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Hope those are deep-fried pickles. Nothing makes an indigestible lump in your gut like a mess of deep-fried pickles.
 
CaryC

CaryC

Has No Life - Lives on TB
Blacknarwhal said:
Sounds good. Fish fries up here are usually battered cod, and you don't get the hush puppies. We usually get cole slaw. Which is all right, but I kind of hate that my only real option for hush puppies is trying to find a still-operating Long John Silver's.
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If you haven't had a catfish fish fry you're living a deprived life. LOL

And no the pickles aren't fried, just some strong dill enough to make your mouth pucker.

But getting off topic my bad. Back to no power on Sat.
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
www.solarham.com

Major Solar Flare (X9)
October 3, 2024 @ 13:50 UTC (UPDATED)
A major X9.0 solar flare was just detected around Earth facing sunspot region 3842 at 12:18 UTC (Oct 3). This is the strongest X-Ray event of the current solar cycle. More details to follow regarding a possible CME.

CME Update: A coronal mass ejection (CME) with a halo signature is evident following the major X9.0 solar flare this morning. Because the source region AR 3842 is directly facing Earth, the plasma cloud appears to be aimed directly towards our planet. A further update will be provided later today once a CME tracking model becomes available. Please note that a faint CME associated with the X7 event on October 1st is expected to pass our planet sometime during the next few days. Aurora sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should have their camera batteries charged up should geomagnetic storming be observed as forecast.

 
O

one4freedom

Senior Member
Melodi said:
This is getting concerning, again not panic time, but concerning. Watch, pay attention, and if worried, at least unplug a lot of stuff and throw some of it in a clean metal garbage bin for a time.
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The galvanized metal garbage can helps about (10 to 18 db reduction) but if you want it to really work use a proper gasket or tape the lid (aluminum duct tape) to the can to seal gaps for 40db reduction.

Informative Videos – Practical Disaster Preparedness for the Family

disasterpreparer.com disasterpreparer.com
View: https://youtu.be/uYWhTMmv6bs?t=30
 
bw

bw

Fringe Ranger
Wyominglarry said:
Our magnetic shield around the earth is getting very weak. It keeps out the CMEs from doing damage and now that we are getting X Class Flares with CME, it is only a matter of time before one sends out a huge high density long duration CME and our worldwide grid is fried.
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If we're lucky we'll lose a national grid first, and people will get the shot-across-the-bow and wake up. They don't seem to have alerted from just the auroras.
 
Masterphreak

Masterphreak

Senior Member
Broccoli said:
So what part of "No, not a CME" are you willing to defend? What does voltage have to do with proton flux? Which is on the rise already. With the electromagnetics involved, here is an extreme case of what the government FAFO. ETA rt 4.5m
View: https://youtu.be/K4YDw9x6s6c?si=Mh4kW9pCSra7boLZ
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Most of the protons from a flare don't reach the surface of the earth. The ones that do are concentrated around the poles. So basically not an issue from solar flares if you are on the surface. If you're outside the magnetosphere than you have a problem.

The main issue with flares is induced ground currents. These can spread through long wire conductors that are ground to the earth. Things like power lines and copper phone lines and anything connected to these are at the most risk. As long as they are unplugged they will be safe.

Now if it was a nuke caused EMP, that can damage electronics out to a certain distance based on size of the the bomb and altitude of detonation. These devices would not have to be connect to anything.
 
packyderms_wife

packyderms_wife

Neither here nor there.
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